I was planning to do a recap of every game but I realized that you
can basically get a recap on any major baseball website and I was just
burdening myself with unnecessary writing. I’ll just stick to the
analysis that I don’t see being done.
That said, posts may be cranked out at a slower rate for the time
being because I finally upgraded from Microsoft Office 2000 to 2007 and
now I can use Pitch F/X data in Excel. So, I’ll be trying to learn how
to correctly use and analyze that, and I’ll try to implement it into my
analysis when possible.
To anyone who does have expertise with Pitch F/X, I will be needing
any pointers I can get, so please drop some hints for me if you can (my
contact information is listed at the bottom of this page). I’m really interested in learning how to create graphs like the ones Mike Fast has in this article about Johnny Cueto’s first start. I’ve also read his tutorial on building a database
for Pitch F/X data, and while my mind went numb almost immediately, it
does sound like a cool idea, but I know very little about Perl and
MySQL, so that’s another call to any experts out there willing to lend
a few pointers.
But enough about me and my shortcomings (that’s your cue to offer a hug).
Kyle Lohse
Remember how I was whining about the Phillies preventing themselves from signing Kyle Lohse? Yeah, well, this happened:
April 1 vs. Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K
April 6 vs. Washington Nationals: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Total: 12 IP, 0 R, 7 H, 4 BB (0.917 WHIP), 5 K
Yeah… and the St. Louis Cardinals signed him for one year at $4.25
million. Granted, he did face a Rockies lineup that has been struggling
all season and a Nationals offense that isn’t expected to be much
better than last year’s MLB-worst, but he’s pitched 12 innings without
surrendering a single run. That’s impressive.
I will give credit where credit is due, however, and that’s to Adam
Eaton. On April 5 in Cincinnati, Eaton held a decent Reds offense to
three runs in 7 and two-thirds innings. He had nearly a 2-to-1
strikes-to-balls ratio, but he still managed to walk four. It’s an
encouraging start from a pitcher almost everyone, myself included, gave
up on a long time ago. If the Phillies can just get league-average
production from Eaton, it’s a huge burden lifted off of the bullpen.
Pat Burrell
If the Phillies’ front office is thinking about letting Burrell walk
when the season is over, they’re crazy. He’s started the season hitting
3 HR and driving in 9 runs in the first seven games, posting an OPS of
1.476.
On Monday night’s Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech said,
half-seriously, that people should be thinking about Burrell
potentially completing the Philadelphia-themed MVP trifecta, since most
people are predicting that if anyone is going to win it as a Phillie
this year, it will be Chase Utley.
Since the Baseball Writers Association of America doesn’t really
know how to factor in a player’s true defensive contributions, it is
actually a realistic thought to imagine Burrell being named the
National League MVP. Burrell is not at all fleet of foot, and as a
result, his defense is burdensome. If the BBWAA knew of any of the
metrics that display this fact in all its glory, there’s not a chance
in hell that Burrell wins the award outside of a 60 HR, 150 RBI season.
It will be a shame if Burrell is forced to sign elsewhere after the
season because he has indicated that he relishes playing in
Philadelphia, so he’d probably be willing to take a hometown discount.
If the Phillies do decide to lock him up for a few more years, they
know what they’ll be getting, as Burrell is as consistent as they come.
From 2005 to ‘07, his slugging percentage ranged from .502 to .504 and
his OBP ranged from .388 to .400; home runs from 29 to 32; doubles from
24 to 27, and all of this consistency comes while losing at-bats in ‘06
and ‘07 from Charlie Manuel taking him out after the sixth or seventh
inning in a lot of games.
For me, though, the most satisfying statistic of his from 2007 is his 114 walks in just 598 plate appearances.
Jayson Werth vs. Geoff Jenkins
So far, Charlie Manuel has used the right field platoon as intended:
Werth against left-handed starters, Jenkins against right-handers.
However, Werth only has five at-bats in the Phillies’ first seven
games. Granted, the Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter,
and that was on Opening Day (Matt Chico of the Nationals), but you
can’t just hold Werth for the lefty starter — you have to start him
against a right-hander every now and then as well.
Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and doesn’t appear to be getting any
better, unsurprisingly. He’s been above-average over his career (115
OPS+) but in ‘06 and ‘07, he was just league average (101 OPS+ in both
seasons). Definitely use Jenkins against right-handers only, but let
him sit out one every now and then in favor of Werth.
In 19 at-bats, Feliz has put up an uninspiring 22 OPS+ for the
Phillies. That is not a misprint; that is a real, live, correctly
calculated 22 OPS+. He has four hits — all of them singles — and one
walk. There’s just nothing to say here. I know it’s early in the
season, small sample sizes and all that good stuff, but… a 22 OPS+?
Come on.
What we didn’t see coming is that he’d be a bottom-feeder defensively. Baseball’s best-fielding third baseman has sunk to the 12th out of 16
qualified NL third-sackers in Revised Zone Rating. It won’t stay that
way forever, and I fully expect Feliz to climb his way back up, but it
just illustrates how little value Feliz has to the Phillies right now.
He’s worse than a black hole.
Myers suspects he may have tipping his pitches, a problem he licked early in his career — which doesn’t mean it can’t re-occur.
[…]
“There were a few pitches that I had to question whether I was
tipping or not,” said Myers, who added that he didn’t notice anything
after looking at the game video. “They had good approaches. I’m not
saying I was [tipping pitches]. I’m just saying they had good
approaches.”
From the dugout, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel saw a pitcher
whose fastball velocity appeared lower than normal. Myers normally
throws in the 92-95 mph range. On Sunday, he reached 92 once, and
mostly stayed in the 88-91-mph range.
Myers is way too important to the Phillies to have any extended
stretch of bad pitching. Let’s hope he figures it out when he starts
against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Three-Game Set at Shea
The Phillies begin a three-game series in Queens bright and early: a 1:10 EST start. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Tues. 4/8, 1:10 PM EST: Jamie Moyer vs. Oliver Perez
Wed. 4/9, 7:10 PM EST: Kyle Kendrick vs. Mike Pelfrey
Thurs. 4/10, 7:10 PM EST: Adam Eaton vs. John Maine
The first thing you should notice about the match-ups is that the Phillies get to miss Johan Santana, as expected.
Second, Adam Eaton starts a game at Shea Stadium, and that has boded well for him. His starts at Shea last season:
April 11: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K
June 6: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 4.2 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K
That last start aside, he was great in Queens last season. Over his
career, Eaton has a 2.81 ERA in the Mets’ home ballpark and just over a
1.0 WHIP in 32 innings.
You didn’t hear it here, but… Pat Gillick is good at acquiring
damaged goods. Before last season, Gillick traded for Freddy Garcia and
sent failed project Gavin Floyd and prized left-hander and strikeout
artist Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox. Garcia’s tenure with the Phillies
was most unimpressive: 11 starts, 58 innings, 5.90 ERA, and a 1.6 WHIP.
His season was shut down on June 8 after a chronic shoulder problem
could be hidden no longer.
General manager Pat Gillick insisted Garcia wasn’t
“damaged goods” when the team acquired him. Even though some reports
said Garcia’s velocity was down toward the end of last season, the
Phillies didn’t make the trade contingent upon him passing a physical.
“We didn’t think a physical was necessary,” Gillick said. “Our
doctors spoke to their doctors and our training staff spoke to theirs
and we were satisfied his health was good. Our scouts saw him pitch in
September. They thought he was healthy.”
Breathe easy — the Phillies did, in fact, require Lidge to pass a
physical before completing the trade with the Houston Astros and new GM
Ed Wade.
The flame-throwing right-hander threw one pitch on Saturday and
ended up re-injuring his right knee. Lidge had surgery on the knee in
October and the Phillies required him to have surgery once again, a
partial medial menisectomy. It was successful:
“The other side of the knee is fine,” Phillies
trainer Scott Sheridan told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark on Monday. Sheridan
called Lidge’s injury and the subsequent successful surgery “the
best-case scenario” for the Phillies.
[…]
“Right now, if we had to do this during the season, then
obviously you’re missing a big chunk of the season,” Lidge said. “I
definitely need a few bullpen sessions, but I feel like my arm is ahead
of schedule so after a week I should be able to throw again.”
Tom Gordon will take over as closer in the meantime, and Brett Myers will not be returning to the bullpen.
The Lidge injury has to make you wonder about Gillick, though. He’s
acquired a few who have had some kind of injury risk come to fruition.
Adam Eaton and Tom Gordon are a couple that come to mind besides Garcia
and Lidge.
Lohse said he would still welcome a return to
Philadelphia, but the Phillies didn’t like his salary demands after
they were shunned in what was believed to have been an offer in the
three-year, $20-million range. Of course, that could change if Brad
Lidge’s right knee is serious, and Brett Myers shifts back to the
bullpen.
I never thought I’d say this about any league-average starting
pitcher, but the Phillies need Kyle Lohse. He would bump the
injury-prone and highly unimpressive Adam Eaton from the rotation and
give the Phillies league-average production from the #5 spot, an
offering most teams would love to have (which makes Lohse’s continued
unemployment all the more perplexing).
The Phillies are correct in being offended at Lohse’s high demands,
but three years, $20 million is also insulting to Lohse based on the
current market.
It would be insulting to me, as a Phillies fan, if I was to find out
that Gillick or Amaro have stopped talking to Lohse after he rejected
that three-year offer. The Phillies need a reliable starting rotation
like a diabetic needs insulin [insert laugh track].
Scott Rolen would have waived his no-trade clause to return to Philadelphia had the chance presented itself this winter.
I will let the numbers speak for themselves.
Scott Rolen avg. WARP with Cardinals (2003-07): 7.86 (excludes ‘02 when he was traded from the Phillies and includes his injury-plagued ‘05 season).
Pedro Feliz avg. WARP with Giants since getting regular playing time: 4.10.
Of course, their contracts have to be taken into account as well (information per Cot’s Contracts).
Rolen: $11 million in each of ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10 with an extra $4 million bonus due in ‘10; full no-trade clause.
Feliz: $3 million in ‘08, $5 million in ‘09, and a $5 million club option in ‘10 with a $500,000 buyout.
If the Phillies had acquired Rolen instead of Feliz, they’d be
paying an extra $8 million this season and $6 million in ‘09 for about
three and a half extra wins. And the Phillies would have had to have
sent something of value to the Jays.
The problem with Rolen, of course, is his injury propensity. After
getting 400+ AB in every season from 1997-2004, he failed to cross that
plateau in 2005 (196 AB) and ‘07 (392 AB). Feliz has no nagging injury
problems.
As for the poor relationship between the Phillies’ front office and Rolen:
“We felt if he came in and played well, all that
other stuff would be water under the bridge,” [Phillies Assistant GM
Mike] Arbuckle said. “But if we guessed wrong on the shoulder, we
didn’t think we’d be in a position to absorb another injury that would
limit our flexibility to fill other needs.”
Rolen definitely would’ve been a better acquisition, but given his
salary, it may have hindered the ability for the Phillies to sign
anyone else, like Kyle Lohse. Of course, if the Phillies fail to pick
up another pitcher, it will all be moot…
There’s a lot of Rowand to quote from that article, so I won’t do it
here, but to paraphrase, he’s offended that Pat Gillick considered him
an injury risk and that the Phillies didn’t see him as part of their
“core.”
“I’ve been on the DL twice in my life, not just in my
professional career. That includes college, high school. And it was
both in ‘06. [Gillick] saw me play for 2 years and I was on the DL
twice. But, knock on wood, I’ve been lucky. I’d be lying to you if I
said that didn’t bother me.”
Rowand took a five-year, $60 million deal from a last place team.
Obviously, money is his #1 priority, especially since he’s already won
a World Series and he has a mainstream following. Giving $12 million a
year to a player who puts his own safety at risk (link — go to May 11) and his teammates’ as well,
is not smart. Add to that he’s a slightly better than average center
fielder both offensively and defensively, and it’s just not smart to
lock him up long-term, especially at an average of $12 million per
season.
One can’t fault Rowand, however, for chasing the bigger contract.
Just don’t feel sorry for him when the Giants hit 70 wins two weeks
away from the end of September, while the Phillies are in the thick of
a race for the NL East crown.
Rollins doesn’t have much to be angry about. He’s
the reigning National League MVP and seems to have a lot of fun with
this stuff. But according to a report by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, a few of
Rollins’ Philly teammates have been privately fuming about Beltran’s
comments and even suggested to Stark that “there will be a brawl this
year.”
Brawls, of course, are awesome because you get to watch around 75
grown men pretend they know how to fight. Most times, these brawls just
result in a little pushing and shoving with no punches thrown. However,
a couple one-on-one match-ups would be interesting:
Pat Burrell vs. Billy Wagner: Their verbal
sparring boiling over into a physical confrontation would almost be too
entertaining for cable TV. Burrell, of course, called Wagner a “rat”
after he left the Phillies for the Mets. In 2007, Burrell victimized
Billy Wagner twice:
June 7: Burrell ties the game up at 3 apiece with a solo home run to left-center.
August 30:
Burrell hits a solo home run to left field to bring the Phillies one
run behind the Mets at 10-9. The next inning, Jayson Werth singled and
stole both second and third base (Wagner is awful at holding runners).
He was promptly driven in by Tadahito Iguchi to tie the game at 10
apiece.
Brett Myers vs. Anna Benson: It’s unlikely these
two would come to blows, even though Anna is a woman and Brett loves
hitting women. Should there be a bench-clearing brawl, it is highly
likely Mrs. Benson has sequestered a young lad in the pits of Citizens Bank Park for, I don’t know, a talk?
Shane Victorino vs. Jose Reyes: This duel would
not be settled via fisticuffs; rather, the two would engage in a
footrace to settle the question, “Who is the fastest player in Major
League Baseball?”
As the final seconds ticked off of the fourth quarter clock and the
New York Giants earned victory in Super Bowl XLII, those of us who are
more inclined towards baseball breathed a sigh of relief and marked
another X on the calendar: A week and a half until P’s and C’s report;
three weeks until exhibition games begin; seven weeks until the regular
season begins.
The Phillies, for the most part, look like an improved team. Brad
Lidge was acquired from the Houston Astros; Shane Victorino moved to
center field following the departure of Aaron Rowand; Geoff Jenkins was
signed to platoon with Jayson Werth in right field; Pedro Feliz was
given red pinstripes as a hopeful answer to the team’s third base woes.
Meanwhile, the Phillies watched the Marlins pawn off their two
franchise players, the Nationals sign and trade for no one important,
the Braves lose Andruw Jones to free agency and trade Edgar Renteria to
Detroit and replace them with weaker players. Oh, and the Mets traded
for the best pitcher in baseball. The Johan Santana deal aside,
everyone in the division either got weaker or stayed essentially in the
same place.
Jimmy Rollins, almost a year after declaring the Phillies “the team
to beat” in the NL East (and being proven correct on the last day of
the regular season), claimed his team would win 100 games in 2008.
As I counted last August, the Phillies’ bullpen was responsible for at blowing at least 19 games
between April and the end of August. Remember, this is a bullpen that
featured — not just had; featured — Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey,
and Jose Mesa, among others, mostly due to the injuries to Closer #1
Tom Gordon, Closer #2 Brett Myers, and Ryan Madson.
Now, the Phillies feature a bona fide closer in Brad Lidge, a
now-serviceable set-up man in Tom Gordon, and a surprisingly deep
bullpen, now that Ryan Madson will once again be healthy, and the team
kept J.C. Romero, who was stunningly effective since he arrived in
Philadelphia in early June last season. The bullpen, barring injury,
doesn’t figure to be a problem for the Phillies in 2008.
As always, the Phillies feature one of baseball’s best offenses.
Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, and the pitchers aside, the Phillies
feature 20-25 HR potential at every position, and Ryan Howard, Pat
Burrell, and Chase Utley are three of baseball’s best at getting on
base. Obviously, scoring runs won’t be a problem for the Phillies,
either, but given that Pedro Feliz and his sub-.300 OBP will be playing
every day, expect a very slight regression in runs scored from ‘07.
However, preventing them appears to be a problem for the starting rotation once you get past Cole Hamels and Brett Myers.
Jamie Moyer is 45, put up a 5.01 ERA, and averaged his highest base
runners per inning rate since 2000. Age is less of a problem for a
pitcher of Moyer’s ilk, since he relies not on speed, but purely on
location and intellect. Either way, Moyer cannot be relied on anything
more than league-average production.
Kyle Kendrick put up an impressing rookie campaign for the Phillies
in which he revealed himself as a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park
and the Phillies. In 2007, more than 47% of Kendrick’s batted balls
were of the ground ball variety, and in CBP, where the gusting winds
push would-be fly ball outs halfway up the stands in left field,
throwing ground balls creates a huge advantage for their Phillies and
their now-great infield defense. Given Kendrick’s age and lack of MLB
experience though, we can’t reliably predict a repeat.
Adam Eaton. Not much needs to be said about him other than that the
sooner the Phillies get rid of him and his awful pitching, the better.
Eaton might be the worst pitcher the Phillies have allowed to pitch 150
innings or more since Brandon Duckworth in 2002. The non-progressives
in the Phillies’ front office likely don’t realize this and will try to
justify paying him $24.5 million over three years by letting him take
the mound once every five games.
Depending on how Kendrick pans out, and how quick the Phillies are
to pull Eaton from the starting rotation, expect about average
production from the Phillies’ rotation. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers
will obviously be well above league-average but it won’t be enough to
offset the lackluster performances from the others. If the Phillies can
sign Kyle Lohse and bump Eaton from the rotation before the season even
starts, that would be such a boon.
Defensively, the Phillies are easily above-average. Pedro Feliz is
baseball’s best glove at third base, Chase Utley is a top-two defensive
second baseman, Victorino is a gazelle with a cannon in center field,
and Carlos Ruiz is one of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Pat Burrell and Geoff Jenkins lack range but both have strong arms,
Jayson Werth has decent speed and a strong arm, and Jimmy Rollins
provides average to slightly above-average shortstop defense. The only
defensive curse on the Phillies is Ryan Howard at first base.
Overall, I expect the Phillies to have the National League’s best
offense and Major League Baseball’s third-best, behind the Yankees and
Tigers. Pitching-wise, overall, I expect a middle-of-the-pack
performance, perhaps 9th out of the 16 National League teams. The
starting rotation will rank about 10th or 11th and the bullpen will
rank about 4th or 5th.
My prediction (with the roster as it is presently)
Phillies 2008 RPG: 5.42 (878 runs).
Phillies 2008 RAPG: 4.61 (747 runs).
Phillies 2008 record: 91-71, second in NL East behind the 93-69 Mets.
Bonus: Cole Hamels finishes a very close #2 to Johan Santana in Cy Young voting.
Given Keith Olbermann’s sky-high ratings
following his injection into NBC’s NFL half-time show, it’s easy to see
why FOX would want to try their hand at mixing football and politics.
It’s too bad that FOX News is easily the least credible of all of the
news channels, ever. Thumb through Crooks and Liars‘ posts under the FOX News category if you’re skeptical.
As a liberal, I think Olbermann is one of the greatest things to
happen to the television world since the original American Gladiators.
However, mixing Olbermann’s political observations into half-time of a
football game just doesn’t sit well with me. Sports and politics merge
in many ways: the playing of the national anthem before games,
Congress’ mingling in baseball’s drug issues, et cetera, but both are deemed necessary. Olbermann’s show and FOX News during the Super Bowl are
superfluous.
I want to know why Tom Brady will pick apart the Green Bay Packer
defense during the Super Bowl, not why Barack Obama will pick apart
Hilary Clinton’s voting records. And given that it will be FOX News
doing the reporting and opining, I imagine we’ll be hearing about why Mike Huckabee’s plan to Christianize the U.S. Constitution
is flawless, or why John McCain’s idea to stay in Iraq for 100 years is
guaranteed to both turn Iraq into a worldwide beacon of democracy and
strengthen our national defense. In other words, we’ll be inundated
with patently false statements backed up with skewed and made-up facts,
like the cries of a liberal media bias.
And for the record, it’s not that FOX News is blatantly right-wing
that makes me detest it so; it’s that they unabashedly ignore reality
and make up their own facts and figures on the fly so it suits their
agenda. And I’d be just as irritated if they had decided to throw in a
bunch of liberals to report and opine during the Super Bowl coverage
because it has no reason being there in the first place.
It’s bad enough most of us subject ourselves to the irritating Super Bowl commercials, only 5% of which are entertaining (well, maybe this will make it more entertaining this year). Now we’re going to sit through war cheer-leading and Republican back-patting.
Did I mention that the election is still 10 months away?
In Other News
You can tell it’s the baseball off-season when I go two weeks
without one inspiration to write about something. Counting down the
days ’til pitchers and catchers report…
Once I get Photoshop CS3 working on my computer again (or once I can
get a few graphics done by someone else for free), I’ll have a new
design for Crashburn Alley up. I haven’t really liked either of the
designs I’ve used thus far but I think the one I am waiting to use is
pretty snazzy.
"I honestly believe that I'm supposed to do everything that I can do to the best of my ability, and God takes care of the rest. How can you worry if your Father's taking care of everything? The God that created the world says, 'I got you; just give Me the best you got.'"
These are the words of the 2005 NFL Most Valuable Player award, Shaun Alexander, running back for the Seattle Seahawks. "My life scripture is Psalms 37:4, 'Delight yourself in the Lord, and He'll give you the desires of your heart.'"
Alexander, following a 42-30 victory over the New York Giants, found out his foot had a slight fracture. It is no secret, then, that he desired his foot to be healed. He delighted himself in the Lord with cross-continental prayer with his family, but the Lord did not give him the desires of his heart, as Alexander will not play on October 1 against the Chicago Bears.
The Seahawks running back, who lost the rushing title in 2004 by one yard to Curtis Martin of the New York Jets, heeded scientific advice from team doctors and agreed with coach Mike Holmgren that sitting out is the best decision.
"I believe in the power of prayer, let me put it that way," Holmgren said.
But he doesn't believe in prayer over science, apparently. "In Shaun's situation, you have another very devout guy who believes in the power of prayer. But we did see a crack in his bone."
For the fourth straight year, the Colorado Rockies will finish at or near the bottom of the NL West. They did show promise by holding first place of the division in early May, but not even the underappreciated performances of Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins could keep the team out of the cellar. They did all they could.
They even held prayer meetings before each game. The Scripture is quoted upon entrance to the weight room. Tuesdays are for prayer and fellowship groups; Sundays are for chapel service. They've tried to reach the Lord, but could only get His voicemail.
"I don't want to offend anyone, but I think character-wise we're stronger than anyone in baseball," says Rockies chairman and CEO Charlie Monfort.
Well, at least the Rockies won't be totally dormant during the offseason, they can always go to church on Sunday, a precursor to watching two of their division rivals -- the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers -- duke it out on the playoffs.
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
