Even before the new Phillies closer had his second knee surgery of
the off-season, there was plenty of doubt cast on Brad Lidge and it had
nothing to do with that right knee of his. Ever since that Game 5
three-run home run served up to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS, it
seems Lidge hit a mental wall, or at least that’s what those affirming the consequent — fans and media alike — would like you to think.
Lidge, obviously, is one of the few people who has a truly educated
opinion on the matter of how the Pujols home run affected him in 2006.
In late January, Ken Mandel explained:
He called those 2006 struggles a “mechanical issue,”
though he admits he developed a cut fastball for 2007 because he lost
confidence in his devastating fastball and hard-biting slider.
By April of last season, Lidge had lost his closer job. During
an April game against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, he had
runners on second and third with no outs. Houston catcher Brad Ausmus
implored him to use his fastball and slider, and “see what happens,”
according to Lidge.
He struck out the next three hitters.
“I felt as good as ever after that and went through the best
stretch of my career after that,” Lidge said. “Earning my job back felt
better than if it was handed to me when I wasn’t throwing well. I
needed to earn it back.”
So, it wasn’t that he was mentally wrecked after Pujols hit a
three-run home run in the 2005 NLCS; it was that he got away from his
fastball and slider.
After that game against the Phillies on April 23 until the end of
the season, Lidge pitched 60 and two-thirds innings, struck out 81, and
put up a 2.82 ERA. He finished the season with a 131 ERA+ and a 1.254
WHIP, impressive statistics for a closer deemed mentally anguished.
Concerns about Lidge now that he’s had a second knee surgery
certainly are legitimate, but the latest, a partial medial menisectomy,
was a success:
“It really was the best-case scenario that it was
the only thing going on,” Phillies athletic trainer Scott Sheridan said
of Lidge’s knee. “His other side of the knee that he had repaired was
fine. It was pretty simple for us.”
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki also reported that there’s
a possibility that Lidge could be back in time for Opening Day on March
31.
Not too much to worry about with the new Phillies closer, really.
The projections seem to agree. Only Marcel puts him above a 4.00 ERA
(4.23 to be exact). Bill James, CHONE, and ZiPS put him at 3.44, 3.42,
and 3.88 respectively. CHONE and ZiPS both have him pitching over 70
innings as well.
After about a one-week hiatus following a move to a new apartment, I
am back in front of my computer monitor, much to the dismay of the rest
of the Internets (to those of you sending me mail bombs, please note
the change in address).
The Phillies have been the noisiest team thus far in the offseason,
unless you count all of the meaningless banter in the media about Alex
Rodriguez, the New York Yankees, and everyone else in between. If
you’re a Phillies fan, you have to be happy with the way Gillick has
attacked the pressing needs facing the 2008 team.
Despite the in-season rumors of the Phillies attempting to acquire
Brad Lidge in a trade with the Houston Astros, it was still surprising
to read about the move in the newspaper (yes, I was reduced to that
archaic form of media sans Internet, sans cable, sans telephone).
The Phillies sent outfielder Michael Bourn, reliever Geoff Geary,
and Minor League third baseman Mike Costanzo to the ’stros for Lidge
and utility infielder Eric Bruntlett.
It’s a good trade for both sides, even though Lidge, a free agent
after the ‘08 season, may only be a one-year rental for the Phillies,
who are, in reality, poised for an “‘08 or bust” campaign.
Let’s first parse through who the Phillies gave up.
Geoff Geary
Geary is an enigma if there ever was one. He’s been an above-average
reliever for each of the past three seasons, with last year’s 105 ERA+
being a severe drop-off from his 158 ERA+ in ‘06. He gives up a fair
share of base runners (1.399 career WHIP) and his career BABIP is .311,
which is only slightly higher than the league average, showing that his
propensity for allowing base runners isn’t fluky. In addition, his K/9
of 5.82 shows that he doesn’t have particularly overpowering stuff and
he’ll only get more and more hittable as hitters become more familiar
with him and as his stuff wanes.
Geary’s departure doesn’t increase the importance of anyone in
particular in the Phillies bullpen, just anyone who would potentially
be used in middle-relief (for instance, Ryan Madson).
Michael Bourn
Bourn has always been a prized prospect of the Phillies, but it was
only because the Phillies’ farm system is so barren. Bourn has the
ceiling similar to that of Juan Pierre or Wily Taveras — a singles
hitter that can steal some bases and put his above-average speed to use
in the outfield.
While with the Phillies for the entire season in the
pinch-runner/defensive replacement role, Bourn did show that he is
capable of handling an everyday workload if needed. He got on base at
about the league-average (Bourn’s .348 to the league’s .349) and was
18-for-19 in the stolen base department.
Fortunately for the Phillies, they already have a guy akin to Bourn,
only with a much stronger arm and a bit more power, in Shane Victorino.
Bourn’s loss makes the back-ups in the outfield — Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs — a bit more valuable.
Last season in AA Reading, Costanzo made huge bounds from the
previous season, in which he put up an OBP of .364 and a SLG of .411,
to put up an OBP of .368 and a SLG of .490. He hit 27 HR and drove in
86 runs to go along with that.
While his offense looks appealing, his defense does not. He
committed 25 errors in ‘06 and 34 last season in only 133 and 135
games, respectively. That is an aggregate average of about one error every 4.5 games.
In 2008, the Phillies will use a platoon of Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs,
and Eric Bruntlett at third base, so Costanzo’s move doesn’t increase
anyone’s immediate value, though the Phillies will have to find a
reliable third baseman after the season.
Now let’s take a look at who the Phillies acquired.
Brad Lidge
Phillies fans pessimistic about the trade will cite Lidge’s ‘06
effort as an indication that he isn’t everything he’s cracked up to be,
but if his ‘07 season means anything, then it was just an aberration.
His K/9 rate has always hovered above 10 (with a career average of
12.6) and he keeps runners off the bases (1.197 career WHIP).
The interesting part about the Lidge acquisition, though, isn’t
Lidge himself — it’s how the move will affect Brett Myers, who is now a
part of the Phillies’ starting rotation, just shortly removed from a
season in which he was the Phillies’ lights-out second-half closer
(2.87 ERA and 21 saves in 53.1 IP). Myers made it clear throughout the
season that he liked being a part of the bullpen as someone the team
could count on game after game, instead of just once every five days.
If Myers doesn’t perform well back in the rotation, proponents of the
team chemistry concept will point to Lidge as a reason.
Should Myers be amicable and return to his above-average ways as a starter, this move has gold stars written all over it.
Eric Bruntlett
To Phillies fans, he’s “that other guy” acquired along with Lidge.
Yeah, he’s essentially listless offensively (career .323 OBP and .364
SLG) but he has above-average speed (20-for-26 in stolen bases in his
career) as well as above-average defense (.847 RZR in 348 defensive
innings last season as a shortstop, which would rank slightly behind
fifth place if he had enough innings to qualify).
Expect Bruntlett to be used in as a pinch-runner or as a
spot-starter at third base in the odd event that Greg Dobbs starts in
the outfield and Wes Helms is sitting on the bench.
In the immediate future, the Phillies are clear winners, but don’t
be fooled: Geary and Bourn can be cogs in a now youthful Astros roster,
with Craig Biggio retired. The Astros could use an outfield of Carlos
Lee (31) in left, Bourn (25) in center, and Hunter Pence (24) in right.
Shortly after the Lidge deal, the Phillies re-signed left-handed reliever J.C. Romero to a three-year, $12 million deal.
J.C. Romero
Plucked off the waiver wire by Gillick in June from the world
champion Boston Red Sox, Romero quickly become one of only three
reliable arms in the bullpen, along with Myers and Tom Gordon, both of
whom were injured during the season.
Romero walked his share of hitters (25 in 36.1 IP), but otherwise
kept hitters at bay (1.101 WHIP). He averaged just a shade under a 1/1
K/IP ratio, but the most important aspect — his left-handedness aside —
is his ability to throw the ground ball, an absolute must in a
hitter-friendly stadium such as Citizens Bank Park. In ‘07, 60% of his
outs were of the ground ball variety, only slightly above his 54.3%
career average.
With those deals fleshed out, let’s look at what the Phillies’ 25-man roster should look like, as it stands, come Opening Day.
C - Carlos Ruiz
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Wes Helms
SS - Jimmy Rollins
LF - Pat Burrell
CF - ? / Shane Victorino
RF - Jayson Werth
C - Chris Coste
IF - Eric Bruntlett
IF/OF - Greg Dobbs
OF - Chris Roberson
OF - T.J. Bohn
That ? in center field could be Aaron Rowand, it could be another
outfielder acquired via free agency or trade, or it could be Victorino,
simply taking Rowand’s place.
The Phillies’ outfield reserves currently include Chris Roberson and
T.J. Bohn, both of whom are rather unappetizing, so here’s hoping they
sign someone like Geoff Jenkins to a one-year deal and use him in a
platoon with Jayson Werth in right field (Jenkins, .883 career OPS vs.
RHP; Werth .864 career OPS vs. LHP).
The last two spots are tentative. I don’t know this for a fact, but
I imagine the Phillies are very open to using blase Adam Eaton in a
long-relief role. The Phillies are also hoping to allow Kendrick to
develop a bit more in the Minor Leagues, perhaps to develop a put-away
pitch that he lacked in his impressive rookie season in ‘07.
Rumors have the Phillies most interested in Randy Wolf and Bartolo
Colon, but both would be risky propositions given their injury
histories. Further down the list are Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse.
Hernandez is a fly ball-prone pitcher, and Lohse’s agent is Scott
Boras, whom the Phillies absolutely detest (see: Drew, J.D.).
Carlos Silva, with his ground ball tendencies (47.5% in ‘07; 48.7%
career), should actually be the #1 target for the Phillies in terms of
cost/effectiveness.
RP -
RP -
RP -
RP - J.C. Romero
RP - Ryan Madson
SU - Tom Gordon
CP - Brad Lidge
The three open relief pitching slots could go to just about anyone
who shows up in Spring Training. “Anyone” could include Fabio Castro,
Clay Condrey, Julio Mateo, Scott Mathieson, Francisco Rosario, and Mike
Zagurski.
One of Castro and Zagurski will make it by the sheer fact of their
left-handedness, giving the Phillies increased flexibility with two
lefties in the ‘pen.
Mathieson is coming off of “Tommy John” surgery, and Mateo still has
some personal problems that prevented him from joining the team last
season when he was picked up from Seattle for a handshake.
Logically, that leaves Condrey and Rosario to the last two spots,
assuming the Phillies are done acquiring relief pitchers. In all
likelihood, they are not done shopping, so they could still target
someone like David Riske or LaTroy Hawkins to set up for Lidge, and
moving injury-prone Tom Gordon to a role in which he is not expected to
pitch 70 games throughout the season.
As for the other fun-packed part of the off-season: awards…
How did Jimmy Rollins get the Gold Glove at shortstop over Troy
Tulowitski? If there’s one thing both baseball statistical
traditionalists and Sabermetricians can agree on, it’s that Tulowitzki
was the better defensive shortstop. Rollins is a hell of a defender,
but even as a Phillies fan, even I cannot give him the nod on this one.
Good to see that Aaron Rowand got a Gold Glove, but again, I take
exception with it this year. He was sixth among qualified NL
center-fielders in RZR (.861) and second in OOZ (69). His 69 OOZ aren’t
too much more than the three behind him (5th-place has 63), so if you
look at the five ahead of him in RZR…
A. Jones: .921 RZR, 80 OOZ
Beltran: .915, 64 OOZ
Pierre: .902, 63 OOZ
Cameron: .894, 53 OOZ
C. Young: .875, 66 OOZ
…you can find three slightly more deserving candidates. I’m not
saying it’s a travesty that Rowand won, but if we’re being specific, he
was just a shade under the cut.
Charlie Manuel, who placed second in Manager of the Year voting,
should have won over Bob Melvin. His Diamondbacks were fluky,
out-performing their Pythagorean W-L by an historically large 11 games.
My reasoning for Manuel was laid out here:
Like Torre, Charlie Manuel has had a ton of injuries, a bad pitching staff, and media scrutiny to deal with all season long.
In this article,
I listed the 15 Phillies to be put on the disabled list at the time.
Since then, Cole Hamels missed time with a strained left elbow, and
Antonio Alfonseca was described by Manuel as “out of gas.”
Manuel has had to make do with a horrible bullpen that GM Pat
Gillick failed to improve during the off-season. In fact, the bullpen
was so lousy that Manuel moved then-starter Brett Myers to the set-up
role for Tom Gordon (Myers became the closer when Gordon was injured).
Myers’ statistics as a closer: 45.2 IP, 1.226 WHIP, 2.96 ERA, 56 K, 16 BB, 17 saves in 20 opportunities.
In addition, despite the injuries to 2005 Rookie of the Year and
2006 NL MVP Ryan Howard, 2007 MVP candidate Chase Utley, speedster
Shane Victorino, and a horrid first-half for Pat Burrell, the Phillies
have, by far, the National League’s best offense.
First in runs, triples, walks, hit batsmen, on-base percentage, and
slugging percentage. Second in at-bats, hits, doubles, home runs, and
stolen bases.
When the Phillies lost to the Mets on April 17, Charlie Manuel blew up at “journalist” Howard Eskin during the post-game press conference,
the team dropped to a 3-9 record, quickly 5.5 games behind the Mets for
fourth place in the NL East. Now, the Phillies are 12-games above .500
— an 18-game swing — and are battling for playoff berths in either the
NL East or in the Wild Card, as they are 2.5 GB the Mets and Padres,
respectively.
Tulowitzki should have won NL Rookie of the Year over Braun, and
while there weren’t any mind-blowing AL candidates for the award, I
still think Jeremy Guthrie should have taken it over Dustin Pedroia.
Good to see the voters got something right through in awarding the AL Cy Young to C.C. Sabathia.
We’re still waiting on the NL Cy Young award (Jake Peavy, obviously) and both MVP awards. John Brattain makes an interesting case for Jimmy Rollins as the NL recipient.
I don’t agree, but as a Phillies fan, I won’t complain if Rollins wins
it. If he does, it will be the first time a team has had two different
players win back-to-back MVP awards since Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds in
2000 and ‘01.
Screech! The sound Michael Bourn made as he tried to halt his un-Baryshnikov-like faceplant in foul territory down the first base line at Wrigley field.
Rustle. Phillies upper management looking for familiar names on coffee-stained Minor League scouting reports from Ottawa and Reading.
Ring. GM Pat Gillick calls other teams, looking to trade garbage for gold.
Click. Other GM's hang up the phone. Simultaneously, Phillies fans turn off their television sets and broadband feeds in frustration.
Swish! What Jimmy Rollins thought the Phillies' shot at the NL East would be.
Drip, drip, drip. The lifeblood of the Phillies' playoff push slowly leaking onto the floor.
Screech! Jayson Werth and Chris Roberson hail cabs to the nearest airport.
Zip. Doctors zip up their black bags, tattered from overuse, after examining close to $40 million in injured Phillies this season.
Tick-tock. The clock hands move ever so swiftly as the trading deadline nears -- just 17 hours following Victorino and Bourn's injuries.
Sweep. A sound the Phillies hope not to hear during the final two months of the regular season.
Gulp. Minor Leaguers face the task of being asked to fill the shoes of proven Major Leaguers.
Poof! Another playoff appearance for the Phils disappearing.
Boing! Phillies upper management presses the eject button on manager Charlie Manuel's seat.
zzz... there's always the Eagles!
The List -- Phillies Injuries in 2007
Michael Bourn (July 31 - September)
1 year/$380,000
Freddy Garcia (June 8 - September)
$10M/1 year remaining on 3 years/$27M contract
Tom Gordon (May 2 - July 16)
3 years/$18M ($4.5M club option in '09), earning $7M in 2007
Ryan Howard (May 10-24)
1 year/$900,000
Jon Lieber (June 20 - all of 2007)
$7.5M/1 year remaining on 3 years/$21M contract
Ryan Madson (July 30 - September)
1 year/$1.1M
Scott Mathieson (Sept. 3, 2006 - Sept. 2007)
1 year/$380,000
Brett Myers (May 24 - July 27)
In first year of 3 years/$25.75M contract, earning $5M in 2007
Francisco Rosario (June 16 - )
1 year/$100,000
Chase Utley (July 26 - ?)
In first year of 7 years/$85M contract, earning $4.5M in 2007
Shane Victorino (July 31 - mid-August)
1 year/$410,000
Jayson Werth (June 29 - early-August)
1 year/$850,000
The Total: 13 players, $38,120,000 total (42.6% of their $89,428,213 payroll)
Conspiracy Theory?
Chief Justice John Roberts fell victim to a seizure on July 30 (Link). He previously had a seizure in 1993.
What last happened in 1993? The Phillies made the playoffs.
Ballgirl Autograph: Ryan Madson is thrown a bit of a "curve" by a young fan asking for his autograph.
Utley Autograph: Jamie Moyer surpises Chase Utley with a request for his autograph.
Is That Me?: Brett Myers, Shane Victorino prove there's a "little fan in all of us" as they ham it up on PhanaVision.
Four of the five Phillies in those three commercials have since gone on the disabled list since they were aired. Jamie Moyer stands alone. Take out an insurance policy, Jamie.
Despite being one of the most underachieving franchises in sports history, the Phillies are the hottest team in the National League, with a 35-25 record since April 21. They lead the league in runs, on-base percentage, walks, and comeback wins, surprisingly enough. After being as far back as 8.5 games behind the NL East-leading Mets on June 2, they have cut that lead and find themselves only 3 games back currently. The Phillies have not been without their struggles, however, having watched the pitching staff slowly erode due to injuries. And they've gotten little production out of Pat Burrell. As the All-Star break looms, trade speculation starts to fill the airwaves, and that means more "Trade Pat Burrell" chants from the Philly faithful.
Trade Rumors Are Bourn
With a 3-5 performance against the St. Louis Cardinals in the series finale, speedy outfielder Michael Bourn has shown that he's ready to handle Major League pitching. Each of his hits were scorched, raising his average to .304, and drove in two key runs -- the Phillies' first run, tying the game at 1-1; and the Phillies' last run, an insurance run for reliever Antonio Alfonseca. Bourn, who is usually a late-game defensive replacement for Burrell, could most likely be just as productive, given Burrell's poor production this year (.205 batting average, 8 HR, 31 RBI; prorating it to his 462 AB last year, he is on pace to hit 18 HR and 70 RBI, which would be the worst season of his career).
Bourn has always been groomed as a potential starting outfielder (and lead-off hitter), which would make a trade of Pat Burrell all the more logical. Burrell's detractors will view this as a "too little, too late" move, but he has been very productive in every season aside from 2003 and here in '07. Trading Burrell, however, is a sticky situation, as he has a full no-trade clause, and he is owed $13 million this year, and $14 million next year, most of which the Phillies would have to eat up unless dealt for a player with a similar salary. Burrell used his no-trade clause last season, when GM Pat Gillick tried to trade him to Baltimore for Daniel Cabrera (and, as a result, the Phillies traded Bobby Abreu to the Yankees). Burrell said he'd only waive his no-trade clause for the Yankees, Red Sox, or most teams on the West Coast.
With the San Francisco Giants falling further and further out of the NL West and Wild Card races (11 and 10 GB, respectively), they could make Matt Morris available. Morris has pitched very well over the course of his 10-year career, including this season, as he has a 3.39 ERA and just 32 walks in 101 innings, and is a well-known innings-eater. He is owed $9.5 million both this season and next, and has a $9 million club option in 2009 with a $1 million buyout. Burrell adds some potential pop to a putrid Giants offense (14th in batting average and on-base percentage, and 13th in slugging; Burrell is an on-base machine). In addition, Burrell could be an adequate replacement for Barry Bonds, who may retire after this season, or could move to the American League as a designated hitter. Morris would add some veteran depth and consistency to a Phillies rotation depleted by injuries and inconsistency.
The Phillies, of course, would have to throw in a B-level prospect and some cash, but this trade does make sense for both teams. If the Phillies do trade Burrell, that would make centerfielder Aaron Rowand indispensible (he should be indispensible right now anyway), and Pat Gillick could feel some pressure to get a contract extension started. Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter are free agents after this season, and if Gillick doesn't at least attempt to sign one of them if he doesn't sign Rowand, he could be run out of town, as the Phillies have little outfield depth after Bourn.
And despite a notoriously troubling bullpen, the Phillies do not need to make a trade to bolster their bullpen. Brett Myers and Tom Gordon should be returning from their respective shoulder injuries at about the same time, and coupled with the impressive performances by Antonio Alfonseca and Ryan Madson, the bullpen should turn out to be just fine. Even Geoff Geary, Mike Zagurski, and Yoel Hernandez have been decent, as their current earned run averages are a bit misleading, given the small sample sizes of the latter two.
Moving Burrell and starting Bourn could also open up some possibilities with the Phillies' lineup, as Jimmy Rollins could be moved down in the order, where his power would be put to better use. Rollins is on pace for 96 RBI this season -- just imagine how productive he'd be if he had runners on in front of him. Rollins is also just one triple away from another quadruple-double (double-figures in doubles, triples, homeruns, and stolen bases), which would be his fourth straight.
Catching A Break
Despite near-uniform hatred of Rod Barajas in Philadelphia (quite a contrast to last year's backup catcher, Sal Fasano, who, along with his mustache, was beloved in the city), he has actually been respectfully productive. Despite a .219 batting average, Barajas is one of the better players on the team at getting on base (.353 OBP). And he hasn't been a liability behind the plate, with 1.4 fielding win shares.
Barajas will always be loathed for bailing out of a possible collision with Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez in the ninth inning o####ame on May 23. With two on and two outs, Aaron Boone ripped a single to left fielder Jayson Werth, who made a strong throw to the plate that beat Ramirez before he was even within 10 feet of the plate. Barajas, instead of blocking the plate and bracing for a collision with the 195-pound shortstop (Barajas weighs 230 pounds), he stood up, opened up part of the plate, and tried to bend over and tag Ramirez. He applied the tag late, as Ramirez slid under him to tie the game (you can watch the play by clicking here, then clicking on "Top Play: 350K," and then selecting "Boone's RBI single" from the list). Shortly afterwards, closer Brett Myers injured his shoulder and has not pitched since.
The only way Barajas can find redemption is by growing a cool mustache and sending pizzas up to his fan group (if he has one -- probably not), like Sal Fasano last season. Or he could just get on a hot streak.
Revolving Door
With a double-header coming up against the Mets on June 29, the Phillies might use their 9th different starting pitcher this year by calling up J.A. Happ from the Minor Leagues. Happ had been injured, but recently completed rehabilitation with the Phillies' AAA affiliate in Ottawa. He has a 3.90 ERA and 63/34 strikeout/walk ratio in 57 and two-thirds innings in the Minors.
Highly-touted prospect Carlos Carrasco, now with the AA Reading Phillies, is also a candidate to jump to the Major Leagues, if only for one start. Carrasco has a 2.77 ERA in 13 starts (12 with Single-A Clearwater) and a 57/25 strikeout/walk ratio in 74 and two-thirds innings.
While it's certainly possible that the Phillies trade for a pitcher between now and July 31, it's unlikely that they'll strike a deal just to quickly patch their rotation for Friday's doubleheader with the Mets.
The Chicago White Sox, whom the Phillies swept June 11-13 at Citizens Bank Park, just got swept again by the cross-town rival Chicago Cubs, and have been open about the availability of left-handed starter Mark Buehrle, who is owed $9.5 million this season, and will be a free agent following the season. It would be a mistake for the Phillies to send two or three prospects out of their talent-poor farm system for a 2-3 month rental, even if it does push them into the playoffs. Given the inflation that occurred last offseason (see: Eaton, Adam; Meche, Gil), Buehrle would likely command something around a 5-year, $80 million contract -- perhaps more, if Carlos Zambrano strikes a richer deal before him. The Phillies should stay away from Buehrle, as appealing as he is.
The Houston Astros could make Jason Jennings available since they are 12 games out of the NL Central already. Jennings cost the Astros Willy Taveras, Jason Hirsh, and Taylor Buchholz in a trade with Colorado -- a steep price. Given Jennings' success this season (3.63 ERA), he would probably cost just as much, if not more. He, along with his $5.5 million contract and pending free agency, is another pitcher the Phillies should stay away from.
Brett Myers will not be returning to the starting rotation, and the Phillies' brass have repeatedly stressed this point, especially since Myers agreed to go to the bullpen only if the Phillies didn't shuffle him back and forth, in and out of the rotation. He is in the bullpen to stay, at least for the duration of this season.
If Kyle Kendrick continues to give the Phillies quality starts (two of them in his two career starts), the Phillies really don't need to make a trade, and if they do, it is only icing on the cake (given Gillick's trading track record with the Phillies, it could be bittersweet icing).
Marked Improvement
Ryan Howard had been unproductive in April and early May until he went on the disabled list to heal his injured quadriceps. He only managed 6 HR and 23 RBI with a .204 batting average, but has rebounded quite nicely -- 10 HR, 28 RBI, and a .310 average since coming off of the DL.
Despite his slow start, Howard is still on pace for a great season. Prorating his statistics, he's on pace for 424 at-bats, and in those at-bats, he's on pace to hit 34 HR and drive in 110 runs.
Hitting coach Milt Thompson and hitting guru/Phillies manager Charlie Manuel are responsible, in part, for Howard's turn-around, especially against left-handers. During the Phillies' interleague series in Cleveland, they faced three straight left-handed starters (Cliff Lee, Jason Stanford, C.C. Sabathia). Howard went 6-13 in the series with 2 HR and 6 RBI, with a noticeably different batting stance -- he was more open (his right foot was more towards first base), and he stood up slightly more straight. Given his quadriceps injury, he was likely not getting enough strength generated out of his lower half, and his straighter stance will alleviate some of the need for leg strength (Howard is furiously working on restoring that strength, however).
Headed to San Francisco?
With the All-Star Game just over two weeks away, the Phillies likely have two locks for the team. Second baseman Chase Utley will undoubtedly start at second base, as he is far and away the best second baseman in baseball. Left-handed starter Cole Hamels will likely be on Tony LaRussa's National League pitching staff. Centerfielder Aaron Rowand could make the team as a reserve, as he is nowhere to be found among the top-15 in fan voting, despite being one of the most productive outfielders in the National League (third in the NL in VORP among outfielders, behind Matt Holliday and Barry Bonds).
Lending An Arm
The Phillies' outfield added another assist to their Major League-leading total when Jayson Werth, in right field, threw out Ryan Ludwick, of the St. Louis Cardinals, at the plate following a single from pitcher Kip Wells. The assist was the 29th among the Phillies' outfielders: Victorino, 9; Rowand, 9; Werth, 6; Burrell, 5. Third base coaches have already adjusted their game plans for Shane Victorino, but it's only a matter of time before they have their runners play station-to-station baseball whereever the ball is hit in the Phillies' outfield.
Payroll Headaches
Injuries have plagued the Phillies' pitching this season, but they have been surprisingly resolved in overcoming them. As the Phillies learned that Jon Lieber could miss the rest of the season with a ruptured tendon in his right foot, they added a player to what is baseball's richest (and most unproductive) disabled list (contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts):
Scott Mathieson: 07:$380,000
Brett Myers: 07:$5M, 08:$8.5M, 09:$12M
Tom Gordon: 07:$7M, 08:$5.5M, 09:$4.5M club option ($1M buyout)
Freddy Garcia: 07:$10M
Francisco Rosario: 07:$100,000
Jon Lieber: 07:$7.5M
That adds up to $32,480,000 worth of injured pitching, just for 2007. Myers and Gordon, the only two signed with the Phillies after this season, earn $13 million in '08, and $16.5 million in '09, collectively (if the Phillies decide to keep him).
They're right back where they started. Dead even, from 0-0 to 20-20, thanks to a resurgent May (9-6) following a dismal April (11-14). It's a brand new season, as they say, but that's not to overlook the outstanding performances the Phillies have had over the last week and a half.
Matched up against tough pitching and teams on hot streaks, the Phillies have doused their fires and started their own, all without the support of their reigning MVP award-winning first baseman, save for a go-ahead pinch-hit grand slam in Arizona on May 9.
Jump Start
The starting rotation has given the Phillies quality starts in 9 out of the last 10 games. They have been pitching impeccably, and that almost became a literal truth as Cole Hamels pitched six perfect innings -- 18 up, 18 down -- on May 16 against the Brewers.
The best thing about the starting rotation's success is that they stay in games well into the seventh and eighth innings, ensuring that Brett Myers -- the only reliable pitcher in the bullpen -- is essentially the only reliever used. The last ten performances by the Phillies' starting pitching: (Click here)
Benchwarmers
Believe it or not, the Phillies role players have been an integral part in the Phillies' recent success. Abraham Nunez has 15 hits in his last 32 at-bats, raising his batting average from .220 on May 6 to .320 on May 16. 10 days, 100-point increase. Oh, and he also plays incredible defense.
Then there's Greg Dobbs, who is jokingly referred to as Roy Hobbs ("The Natural") for his 5 HR, 20 RBI during spring training. He hasn't stopped there. As a result of getting regular playing time since May 8, Dobbs has 9 hits, including 2 HR, in 21 at-bats.
On national television in front of hundreds of thousands of viewers, Michael Bourn showed that while he's not exactly a potent hitter, he can turn any menial single-bagger into a triple. In the top of the seventh inning in San Francisco on May 6, Pat Burrell drew a leadoff walk, and Manuel quickly sent in Bourn to pinch-run with the Phillies ahead 7-5. Aaron Rowand hit a fly ball for an out, bringing up Wes Helms. Even with pitcher Kevin Correia fully aware of his intent to steal, Bourn stole both second and third base. In true fundamental fashion, Helms grounded out, but Bourn scored.
Manager Charlie Manuel has frequently used Bourn as a defensive replacement for Pat Burrell in the late innings of games. He's received criticism that it shortchanges the team when they need runs late in the game and they have the light-hitting Bourn up at the plate instead of Burrell, but so far, it hasn't come back to bite Manuel.
If catcher Carlos Ruiz can be classified as a bench player, then he's arguably the most valuable bench player the Phillies have had in years. Going into the season, it seemed like free agent signee Rod Barajas would get the lion's share of the starts behind home plate, but Ruiz has played in 28 of the Phillies' 40 games now, and he certainly has earned it. He ranks in the top-five among rookies in batting average and RBI, and is arguably the best defensive catcher in the league. Duly noted by Phillies' television color analyst Chris Wheeler, however, is his ability to handle the team's diverse pitching staff. Between innings, Ruiz can be seen going over with his pitchers, first, what did and did not work in the previous inning. Then, he'll go over the scouting reports of the upcoming hitters and the tandem will devise a game plan.
Ruiz's shining moment came on May 15, with the Phillies tied with the Brewers 3-3 in the bottom of the ninth, when he preempted a Derrick Turnbow fastball and sent it 400+ feet into the left-centerfield seats.
The Phillies' catcher is not only an early Rookie of the Year award candidate, he is also a possible All-Star catcher. He, of course, would have to compete with Brian McCann and Russell Martin -- certainly not an easy task.
Late-Inning Heroics
Just about a month after suffering two heart-breaking losses to the Atlanta Braves in the late innings in consecutive games, the Phillies have exacted revenge on the Milwaukee Brewers, the best team in the National League going into the series.
In the first game, the Phillies were down 6-2 going into the eighth inning with the intimidating task of facing the Brewers' league-best bullpen. Following a six-run eighth inning, Derrick Turnbow's ERA went from 1.76 going into the game to 3.94 when he left, and the Phillies marred the Brewers' perfect 21-0 record when leading after seven innings. [See the graph!]
As if beating the league's best team and the league's best bullpen once wasn't good enough, the Phillies came out for an encore the following night. They had been holding on to a 3-1 lead going into the eighth inning, but Prince Fielder launched a solo homerun off of Adam Eaton down the right field line to bring it to 3-2. Brett Myers came in with one out in the eighth inning, promptly struck out the only batter he faced that inning, and sat down for a while as the Phillies got men on base in the bottom-half, but failed to pad their lead. Almost as if the Phillies games' were in syndication, Myers repeated what so many of the other Phillies relievers had done thus far, and gave up a game-tying homerun in the ninth inning to Johnny Estrada. Myers, however, kept his composure and kept the Brewers off the board otherwise, bringing a 3-3 tie into the bottom of the ninth, and Carlos Ruiz emerged as the hero, hitting a game-ending solo homerun. Once again, the best bullpen blew the game for the Brewers. And how sweet it felt for the downtrodden Phillies. [See the graph!]
Shane's Shame and Shane's Shine
As mentioned in my last entry, right fielder Shane Victorino has made his share of baserunning gaffes. Tack on a few more.
May 12, 2007: In the bottom of the eighth, with the Phillies up 11-7, but clearly in need of as many insurance runs as possible, Shane Victorino attempted to score from first base on a double to right field off of the bat of Chase Utley. Matt Murton gunned him down at home plate.
May 15, 2007: Following a double and advancing to third base on a sacrifice fly by Jimmy Rollins in the first inning, Shane Victorino attempted to score on a foul ball by Chase Utley. Left fielder Geoff Jenkins caught it, and quickly and accurately threw the ball to catcher Johnny Estrada and nailed Victorino in plenty of time. The worst part about it, though, was that Victorino did not even attempt to slide. That would have been acceptable if he had instead attempted to knock the ball out of the catcher's hands, but he didn't try that, either.
May 15, 2007: After reaching on an infield single to shortstop J.J. Hardy, Victorino advanced to third base on a single to right field by Jimmy Rollins. Chase Utley then hit a ground ball to second baseman Rickie Weeks, who threw home to catcher Johnny Estrada, who tagged Victorino out. Replays show that Victorino's hand touched the plate before the tag was applied, but that's not an excuse, as he hesitated instead of immediately breaking for home plate on contact. It would prove to be a costly baserunning gaffe until Carlos Ruiz bailed out both Victorino and Brett Myers.
I don't mean to harp on Victorino's shortcomings, but they're amateurish mistakes. Other than his baserunning post-second base, he's been an incredible asset to the Phillies. He ranks third in the league with 14 stolen bases (he's only been thrown out twice; his SB success rate is 87.5% -- incredible), and is the National League leader in outfield assists with six of them (teammate Pat Burrell is just behind him with five). If Aaron Rowand wasn't hitting so well, Victorino would clearly be the Phillies' leadoff hitter with Ryan Howard out of the lineup and Jimmy Rollins subsequently moved to the #3 slot.
2007 All-Star Game: American League vs. Philadelphia Phillies?
Maybe it's just these rose-#### glasses, but the Phillies have some viable candidates for the 2007 All-Star Game in San Francisco: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Rowand, Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels, Jon Lieber, and Brett Myers.
Battle of the Jimmies
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins, normally putrid in April, was easily one of the best hitters in all of baseball, behind Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds, of course. In April, Rollins hit .297 with 9 HR, 18 RBI, and an OPS of .979. The key statistic to understanding Rollins, though, is his walks total. In April, that was at 10.
Now more than halfway through May, Rollins is hitting .267 in the month with 0 HR, 7 RBI, and an OPS of .697. His walks? Two.
The implication, then, is that when Rollins is hitting well, he is patient at the plate willing to walk. When he's slumping, he's not working counts.
Somebody Likes Chris
In my last entry, I detailed how Chris Coste was shafted out of a roster spot he deserved when spring training broke and the team headed back to Philadelphia to start the regular season. As Ryan Howard has been placed on the disabled list, Coste has been called up and will mostly be used as a pinch-hitter. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that he'll get anything more than an at-bat here and there, despite his versatility.
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I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
