I was planning to do a recap of every game but I realized that you
can basically get a recap on any major baseball website and I was just
burdening myself with unnecessary writing. I’ll just stick to the
analysis that I don’t see being done.
That said, posts may be cranked out at a slower rate for the time
being because I finally upgraded from Microsoft Office 2000 to 2007 and
now I can use Pitch F/X data in Excel. So, I’ll be trying to learn how
to correctly use and analyze that, and I’ll try to implement it into my
analysis when possible.
To anyone who does have expertise with Pitch F/X, I will be needing
any pointers I can get, so please drop some hints for me if you can (my
contact information is listed at the bottom of this page). I’m really interested in learning how to create graphs like the ones Mike Fast has in this article about Johnny Cueto’s first start. I’ve also read his tutorial on building a database
for Pitch F/X data, and while my mind went numb almost immediately, it
does sound like a cool idea, but I know very little about Perl and
MySQL, so that’s another call to any experts out there willing to lend
a few pointers.
But enough about me and my shortcomings (that’s your cue to offer a hug).
Kyle Lohse
Remember how I was whining about the Phillies preventing themselves from signing Kyle Lohse? Yeah, well, this happened:
April 1 vs. Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K
April 6 vs. Washington Nationals: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Total: 12 IP, 0 R, 7 H, 4 BB (0.917 WHIP), 5 K
Yeah… and the St. Louis Cardinals signed him for one year at $4.25
million. Granted, he did face a Rockies lineup that has been struggling
all season and a Nationals offense that isn’t expected to be much
better than last year’s MLB-worst, but he’s pitched 12 innings without
surrendering a single run. That’s impressive.
I will give credit where credit is due, however, and that’s to Adam
Eaton. On April 5 in Cincinnati, Eaton held a decent Reds offense to
three runs in 7 and two-thirds innings. He had nearly a 2-to-1
strikes-to-balls ratio, but he still managed to walk four. It’s an
encouraging start from a pitcher almost everyone, myself included, gave
up on a long time ago. If the Phillies can just get league-average
production from Eaton, it’s a huge burden lifted off of the bullpen.
Pat Burrell
If the Phillies’ front office is thinking about letting Burrell walk
when the season is over, they’re crazy. He’s started the season hitting
3 HR and driving in 9 runs in the first seven games, posting an OPS of
1.476.
On Monday night’s Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech said,
half-seriously, that people should be thinking about Burrell
potentially completing the Philadelphia-themed MVP trifecta, since most
people are predicting that if anyone is going to win it as a Phillie
this year, it will be Chase Utley.
Since the Baseball Writers Association of America doesn’t really
know how to factor in a player’s true defensive contributions, it is
actually a realistic thought to imagine Burrell being named the
National League MVP. Burrell is not at all fleet of foot, and as a
result, his defense is burdensome. If the BBWAA knew of any of the
metrics that display this fact in all its glory, there’s not a chance
in hell that Burrell wins the award outside of a 60 HR, 150 RBI season.
It will be a shame if Burrell is forced to sign elsewhere after the
season because he has indicated that he relishes playing in
Philadelphia, so he’d probably be willing to take a hometown discount.
If the Phillies do decide to lock him up for a few more years, they
know what they’ll be getting, as Burrell is as consistent as they come.
From 2005 to ‘07, his slugging percentage ranged from .502 to .504 and
his OBP ranged from .388 to .400; home runs from 29 to 32; doubles from
24 to 27, and all of this consistency comes while losing at-bats in ‘06
and ‘07 from Charlie Manuel taking him out after the sixth or seventh
inning in a lot of games.
For me, though, the most satisfying statistic of his from 2007 is his 114 walks in just 598 plate appearances.
Jayson Werth vs. Geoff Jenkins
So far, Charlie Manuel has used the right field platoon as intended:
Werth against left-handed starters, Jenkins against right-handers.
However, Werth only has five at-bats in the Phillies’ first seven
games. Granted, the Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter,
and that was on Opening Day (Matt Chico of the Nationals), but you
can’t just hold Werth for the lefty starter — you have to start him
against a right-hander every now and then as well.
Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and doesn’t appear to be getting any
better, unsurprisingly. He’s been above-average over his career (115
OPS+) but in ‘06 and ‘07, he was just league average (101 OPS+ in both
seasons). Definitely use Jenkins against right-handers only, but let
him sit out one every now and then in favor of Werth.
In 19 at-bats, Feliz has put up an uninspiring 22 OPS+ for the
Phillies. That is not a misprint; that is a real, live, correctly
calculated 22 OPS+. He has four hits — all of them singles — and one
walk. There’s just nothing to say here. I know it’s early in the
season, small sample sizes and all that good stuff, but… a 22 OPS+?
Come on.
What we didn’t see coming is that he’d be a bottom-feeder defensively. Baseball’s best-fielding third baseman has sunk to the 12th out of 16
qualified NL third-sackers in Revised Zone Rating. It won’t stay that
way forever, and I fully expect Feliz to climb his way back up, but it
just illustrates how little value Feliz has to the Phillies right now.
He’s worse than a black hole.
Myers suspects he may have tipping his pitches, a problem he licked early in his career — which doesn’t mean it can’t re-occur.
[…]
“There were a few pitches that I had to question whether I was
tipping or not,” said Myers, who added that he didn’t notice anything
after looking at the game video. “They had good approaches. I’m not
saying I was [tipping pitches]. I’m just saying they had good
approaches.”
From the dugout, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel saw a pitcher
whose fastball velocity appeared lower than normal. Myers normally
throws in the 92-95 mph range. On Sunday, he reached 92 once, and
mostly stayed in the 88-91-mph range.
Myers is way too important to the Phillies to have any extended
stretch of bad pitching. Let’s hope he figures it out when he starts
against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Three-Game Set at Shea
The Phillies begin a three-game series in Queens bright and early: a 1:10 EST start. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Tues. 4/8, 1:10 PM EST: Jamie Moyer vs. Oliver Perez
Wed. 4/9, 7:10 PM EST: Kyle Kendrick vs. Mike Pelfrey
Thurs. 4/10, 7:10 PM EST: Adam Eaton vs. John Maine
The first thing you should notice about the match-ups is that the Phillies get to miss Johan Santana, as expected.
Second, Adam Eaton starts a game at Shea Stadium, and that has boded well for him. His starts at Shea last season:
April 11: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K
June 6: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 4.2 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K
That last start aside, he was great in Queens last season. Over his
career, Eaton has a 2.81 ERA in the Mets’ home ballpark and just over a
1.0 WHIP in 32 innings.
Recently, I responded to some feisty comments
from Robert Quinlan Costas. The fun hasn’t ended, folks! I urge my
seven loyal readers (Hi, grandma!) to check out John Brattain’s takes
on those comments:
Per the Philadelphia Daily News,
Brett Myers thinks that the team’s dismal spring training performances
are meaningless. Manager Charlie Manuel disagrees. Spring training
numbers don’t correlate with regular season numbers… yada, yada, yada…
this is one rare point in which I believe the numbers aren’t necessary
here.
Of course Brett Myers thinks spring training games are meaningless:
he has nothing to fight for in the spring. Maybe that’s why he’s been
performing so well, too. However, the pitchers who are really stinking
it up — Adam Eaton, Travis Blackley, J.D. Durbin, Kyle Kendrick — have
little job security to fall back on. To them, spring training games
should be just as meaningful as regular season games because they may
not even see Major League regular season games, especially at the rate
they’re going.
If Eaton and The Gang can’t put it together with a metaphorical gun
to the heads of their Major League jobs, why am I to believe that
they’ll somehow “flip a switch” once March 31 rolls around?
Kyle Lohse
Lohse, client of super-agent Scott Boras, rolled the dice this
off-season searching for a deal in the ballpark of what Carlos Silva
got: 4 years, $48 million. No one bit, but the Phillies did offer him a
3-year, $21 million contract, which was declined. Lohse went jobless
all off-season, and it was eerie, since league-average pitchers like
him are usually snapped up quickly and suited in cash. The Cardinals
gave him a one-year deal worth $4.25 million.
As recently as two weeks ago, Phillies assistant GM Mike Arbuckle
(who, along with Ruben Amaro Jr., is a top candidate to take over for
Pat Gillick when he departs after this season) said in regards to
Lohse, “I know we’re not interested” even when Lohse said he’d take a one-year deal worth between $4 and $10 million. Why no interest?
The only plausible reasoning I can think of is Scott Boras. He and
the Phillies have a bitter past (think J.D. Drew on draft day), and the
two sides may have just been unwilling to negotiate with each other. If
this explanation is actually true, then this is a colossal failure to
do right by the people who keep the team in business. The front office
owes it to the fans and to the players to put together the best team
they can to attempt to win a World Series. Lohse, a league-average
pitcher who would slot in at #5 in the Phillies rotation, gives the
team a noticeably better chance at accomplishing that goal. Teams kill
for a league-average pitcher at the back of the rotation, and Lohse was
asking for well below market value!
Instead, the Phillies will allow the wound that is the back of the
starting rotation to have the bacteria that are Eaton, Blackley, and
Durbin fester. Kris Benson won’t be ready to attempt to help the
Phillies until May at the earliest.
There is just no logical explanation I can think of as to why the
Phillies had no interest in Lohse. There has to be something about him
that not even the media knows about. Or maybe the Phillies’ front
office is just incompetent.
Brackets
Just so everyone can see just what an #### I am, I have taken
screenshots of my bracket on ESPN (I have no idea if I can just send
you a link to it; if so, I couldn’t find it). Remember to check back
when the tournament is all done and tell me what an #### I am. Or you
can do it now, too.
You didn’t hear it here, but… Pat Gillick is good at acquiring
damaged goods. Before last season, Gillick traded for Freddy Garcia and
sent failed project Gavin Floyd and prized left-hander and strikeout
artist Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox. Garcia’s tenure with the Phillies
was most unimpressive: 11 starts, 58 innings, 5.90 ERA, and a 1.6 WHIP.
His season was shut down on June 8 after a chronic shoulder problem
could be hidden no longer.
General manager Pat Gillick insisted Garcia wasn’t
“damaged goods” when the team acquired him. Even though some reports
said Garcia’s velocity was down toward the end of last season, the
Phillies didn’t make the trade contingent upon him passing a physical.
“We didn’t think a physical was necessary,” Gillick said. “Our
doctors spoke to their doctors and our training staff spoke to theirs
and we were satisfied his health was good. Our scouts saw him pitch in
September. They thought he was healthy.”
Breathe easy — the Phillies did, in fact, require Lidge to pass a
physical before completing the trade with the Houston Astros and new GM
Ed Wade.
The flame-throwing right-hander threw one pitch on Saturday and
ended up re-injuring his right knee. Lidge had surgery on the knee in
October and the Phillies required him to have surgery once again, a
partial medial menisectomy. It was successful:
“The other side of the knee is fine,” Phillies
trainer Scott Sheridan told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark on Monday. Sheridan
called Lidge’s injury and the subsequent successful surgery “the
best-case scenario” for the Phillies.
[…]
“Right now, if we had to do this during the season, then
obviously you’re missing a big chunk of the season,” Lidge said. “I
definitely need a few bullpen sessions, but I feel like my arm is ahead
of schedule so after a week I should be able to throw again.”
Tom Gordon will take over as closer in the meantime, and Brett Myers will not be returning to the bullpen.
The Lidge injury has to make you wonder about Gillick, though. He’s
acquired a few who have had some kind of injury risk come to fruition.
Adam Eaton and Tom Gordon are a couple that come to mind besides Garcia
and Lidge.
Lohse said he would still welcome a return to
Philadelphia, but the Phillies didn’t like his salary demands after
they were shunned in what was believed to have been an offer in the
three-year, $20-million range. Of course, that could change if Brad
Lidge’s right knee is serious, and Brett Myers shifts back to the
bullpen.
I never thought I’d say this about any league-average starting
pitcher, but the Phillies need Kyle Lohse. He would bump the
injury-prone and highly unimpressive Adam Eaton from the rotation and
give the Phillies league-average production from the #5 spot, an
offering most teams would love to have (which makes Lohse’s continued
unemployment all the more perplexing).
The Phillies are correct in being offended at Lohse’s high demands,
but three years, $20 million is also insulting to Lohse based on the
current market.
It would be insulting to me, as a Phillies fan, if I was to find out
that Gillick or Amaro have stopped talking to Lohse after he rejected
that three-year offer. The Phillies need a reliable starting rotation
like a diabetic needs insulin [insert laugh track].
Scott Rolen would have waived his no-trade clause to return to Philadelphia had the chance presented itself this winter.
I will let the numbers speak for themselves.
Scott Rolen avg. WARP with Cardinals (2003-07): 7.86 (excludes ‘02 when he was traded from the Phillies and includes his injury-plagued ‘05 season).
Pedro Feliz avg. WARP with Giants since getting regular playing time: 4.10.
Of course, their contracts have to be taken into account as well (information per Cot’s Contracts).
Rolen: $11 million in each of ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10 with an extra $4 million bonus due in ‘10; full no-trade clause.
Feliz: $3 million in ‘08, $5 million in ‘09, and a $5 million club option in ‘10 with a $500,000 buyout.
If the Phillies had acquired Rolen instead of Feliz, they’d be
paying an extra $8 million this season and $6 million in ‘09 for about
three and a half extra wins. And the Phillies would have had to have
sent something of value to the Jays.
The problem with Rolen, of course, is his injury propensity. After
getting 400+ AB in every season from 1997-2004, he failed to cross that
plateau in 2005 (196 AB) and ‘07 (392 AB). Feliz has no nagging injury
problems.
As for the poor relationship between the Phillies’ front office and Rolen:
“We felt if he came in and played well, all that
other stuff would be water under the bridge,” [Phillies Assistant GM
Mike] Arbuckle said. “But if we guessed wrong on the shoulder, we
didn’t think we’d be in a position to absorb another injury that would
limit our flexibility to fill other needs.”
Rolen definitely would’ve been a better acquisition, but given his
salary, it may have hindered the ability for the Phillies to sign
anyone else, like Kyle Lohse. Of course, if the Phillies fail to pick
up another pitcher, it will all be moot…
There’s a lot of Rowand to quote from that article, so I won’t do it
here, but to paraphrase, he’s offended that Pat Gillick considered him
an injury risk and that the Phillies didn’t see him as part of their
“core.”
“I’ve been on the DL twice in my life, not just in my
professional career. That includes college, high school. And it was
both in ‘06. [Gillick] saw me play for 2 years and I was on the DL
twice. But, knock on wood, I’ve been lucky. I’d be lying to you if I
said that didn’t bother me.”
Rowand took a five-year, $60 million deal from a last place team.
Obviously, money is his #1 priority, especially since he’s already won
a World Series and he has a mainstream following. Giving $12 million a
year to a player who puts his own safety at risk (link — go to May 11) and his teammates’ as well,
is not smart. Add to that he’s a slightly better than average center
fielder both offensively and defensively, and it’s just not smart to
lock him up long-term, especially at an average of $12 million per
season.
One can’t fault Rowand, however, for chasing the bigger contract.
Just don’t feel sorry for him when the Giants hit 70 wins two weeks
away from the end of September, while the Phillies are in the thick of
a race for the NL East crown.
Rollins doesn’t have much to be angry about. He’s
the reigning National League MVP and seems to have a lot of fun with
this stuff. But according to a report by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, a few of
Rollins’ Philly teammates have been privately fuming about Beltran’s
comments and even suggested to Stark that “there will be a brawl this
year.”
Brawls, of course, are awesome because you get to watch around 75
grown men pretend they know how to fight. Most times, these brawls just
result in a little pushing and shoving with no punches thrown. However,
a couple one-on-one match-ups would be interesting:
Pat Burrell vs. Billy Wagner: Their verbal
sparring boiling over into a physical confrontation would almost be too
entertaining for cable TV. Burrell, of course, called Wagner a “rat”
after he left the Phillies for the Mets. In 2007, Burrell victimized
Billy Wagner twice:
June 7: Burrell ties the game up at 3 apiece with a solo home run to left-center.
August 30:
Burrell hits a solo home run to left field to bring the Phillies one
run behind the Mets at 10-9. The next inning, Jayson Werth singled and
stole both second and third base (Wagner is awful at holding runners).
He was promptly driven in by Tadahito Iguchi to tie the game at 10
apiece.
Brett Myers vs. Anna Benson: It’s unlikely these
two would come to blows, even though Anna is a woman and Brett loves
hitting women. Should there be a bench-clearing brawl, it is highly
likely Mrs. Benson has sequestered a young lad in the pits of Citizens Bank Park for, I don’t know, a talk?
Shane Victorino vs. Jose Reyes: This duel would
not be settled via fisticuffs; rather, the two would engage in a
footrace to settle the question, “Who is the fastest player in Major
League Baseball?”
I don’t know if any of you out there have heard, but the Mets traded
for two-time Cy Young Award-winner Johan Santana. Yeah, I’m as
surprised as you are. I could’ve sworn that the Red Sox and Yankees
offered better packages. But the Twins’ front office isn’t who I want
to criticize right now (plenty of people will be doing that between now
and the end of the regular season); I want to question Don McKee’s
logic in an article he wrote for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
He titled it “Phils Fall Back in Arms Race.” It’s clever, probably
unintentionally so. Does he mean that the Phillies are falling back, as
in a relapse of sorts? Or does he mean that the Phillies are falling
back, as in lagging behind the Mets? Probably the latter, but he spends
the rest of the article implying the former.
McKee provides a summary of the Santana deal, then hammers out this doozy:
So here’s a friendly little road map that could
guide the Phillies back to another of those scintillating stretch runs
with their most hated (is it even close?) rivals.
First, send something to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Matt
Morris, who has 121 career wins and too big a price tag for the team
with the majors’ fourth-lowest payroll. (Since Morris is scheduled to
make $9.5 million this season, the Bucs might be willing to accept Wes
Helms, who makes about a third of that.)
Then ship Adam Eaton to Minnesota, which will be seeking an arm
to fill out its rotation. The Twins could have some big problems
without Santana: Francisco Liriano missed all of last season after
elbow surgery and former Phillie Carlos Silva signed with Seattle as a
free agent.
If you know who Scott Baker, #### Bonser and Kevin Slowey are
(the rest of Minnesota’s rotation), you get a stack of old Mike
Lieberthal cards.
Morris has won at least 10 games in seven straight seasons and
won 22 with St. Louis in 2001. He has had a losing record the last two
seasons, but that may have had more to do with his teams (San Francisco
and Pittsburgh) than him.
Is he Johan Santana? No. But neither is anybody else out there.
And with every single arm in the Phillies’ projected rotation a
question mark, Morris would be a welcome addition.
He suggests trading Wes Helms to the Pirates for Matt Morris. That
sounds reasonable since we’re talking about Wes Helms, a mediocre
player, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose front office has made a hobby
out of collecting as many mediocre players as possible since 1992.
Morris is owed $9.5 million for the ‘08 season and he has a $9
million club option with a $1 million buy-out clause for ‘09. Helms is
owed $2.5 million this season and he has a $3.75 million club option
with a $750,000 buy-out clause for ‘09. That’s a total of $6.25 million
the Phillies would be required to take on this season. Not bad.
But if you look at the free agent market, once name sticks out: Kyle
Lohse. Lohse doesn’t throw as many ground balls as Morris, but he’s a
free agent, and that’s key. Instead of having to give up Helms to round
out the rotation, the Phillies can sign Lohse, whose price tag drops
with every passing day, and then flip Helms to some third
base-desperate team who is willing to part with a relief pitcher. As
anyone who watched the Phillies last season knows, you can’t have too many
relief pitchers.
Lohse will probably take a three-year, $27 million deal, an average
of $9 million per season. This also allows the Phillies the flexibility
to add another arm to the bullpen by trading Helms.
Even more laughable is that the Phillies can just dump Adam Eaton on
the Twins, as if their front office is collectively unconscious
following the Santana trade (who knows, maybe he’s right). Dumping
Eaton on the Twins would require eating a lot of his remaining salary,
which is $7.635 million this season, $8.5 million in ‘09, and a $9
million mutual option in ‘10 with a $500,000 buy-out clause. The
Phillies would have to fork over about half of Eaton's '08 salary, most likely.
So, here’s McKee’s plan in the big picture:
Phillies Get
Matt Morris ($9.5 million)
Some random Twins Minor Leaguer who will be serving fries in two years
Phillies Give Up
Wes Helms ($2.5 million)
Adam Eaton ($4 million of $7.635)
To find out how much money the Phillies would have to have, just add
up Morris’ salary and the cash they’d send with Eaton, and subtract
from it Helms’ salary. That’s $11 million they are paying essentially
just for Matt Morris, a pitcher whose poor ‘06-07 seasons McKee
wrongfully labels as aberrations or due mostly to bad teams.
Take a look at the trends Morris has shown. In 2005, he was with the
Cardinals, ‘06 with the Giants, and split ‘07 between the Giants and
Pirates.
K/9
2005: 5.47
2006: 5.07 (-.40)
2007: 4.62 (-.45)
Career: 6.08
BB/9
2005: 1.73
2006: 2.73 (+1.0)
2007: 2.76 (+0.03)
Career: 2.53
WHIP
2005: 1.277
2006: 1.353 (+.076)
2007: 1.515 (+.162)
Career: 1.305
Fly Ball %
2005: 29.8%
2006: 33.4% (+3.6%)
2007: 31.5% (-1.9%)
Career: 31.7%
You can’t blame that on Morris’ teammates. He is striking out less
hitters, walking them more, allowing more overall base runners, and is
becoming slightly more fly ball-prone.
So, the Mets got Santana. It probably makes them the pre-season
favorites barring any other significant moves by the Phillies or
Braves. It doesn’t mean the Phillies have to panic and just start
randomly acquiring pitchers. Even if the Phillies don’t acquire Lohse
and go into the season expecting Adam Eaton to start once every five
days, it at least means the Phillies will have some funds available to
make a mid-season trade if a player becomes available.
The Phillies’ front office has stated that they are done making
major deals until spring training starts, though that doesn’t exclude a
signing of someone like Kyle Lohse or Kris Benson. The only thing left
to complete then is signing Ryan Howard to some kind of a deal, as
Howard is arbitration-eligible for the first time in his brief career.
The Phillies and their Ruthian first baseman exchanged figures
recently and were $3 million away from each other: the Phils offered
him $7 million; Howard wanted $10 million. Should this be settled by an
arbitrator, there’s little doubt the Phillies would win, as $10 million
for a first-time arbitration-eligible player is unprecedented (as a
comparison, Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million in his first year of
arbitration eligibility).
Before last season, however, Howard and the Phillies were at odds.
The author of the Phillies’ franchise single-season home run record
wanted a long-term deal. Instead, the Phillies gave him a one-year deal
worth $900,000. Howard was disappointed, though it tied the record,
held along with Albert Pujols, for the highest base salary for a
non-arbitration-eligible player. When the deal was completed, Howard
said:
It’s a little frustrating and a little disappointing
that we didn’t get it done, but that’s the business aspect. Now you use
it as a starting point. It’s over. Now you go out and play.
Should the Phillies give him a long-term deal now? They have control
of him until after the 2011 season and can go year-to-year with him in
arbitration until then. Let’s look at some possibilities.
The Phillies sign Howard to a large long-term deal worth $90 million over the next six seasons.
The Phillies now have control of Howard until after his age 33
season in 2013, when he would undoubtedly be in decline. For those six
years, the Phillies wouldn’t have to worry about drafting a first
baseman and would have an almost-definite above-average offense, since
they also have Chase Utley locked up until after the ‘13 season.
Adrian Cardenas, one of the Phillies’ top prospects, then becomes
valuable to the Phillies in two ways: they can try him out as a
potential third baseman (or perhaps an outfielder), or they can
continue grooming him as a second baseman and use him as trade bait,
since he’s road-blocked by Utley at his natural position.
By the time Howard’s contract is nearing its end, his annual salary
will likely look like a bargain, given inflation. This benefits the
Phillies two-fold: the relative cheapness gives them probable cap space
to add players and it increases Howard’s trade value.
As for ‘08, the Phillies will have little cap room to make another
signing (i.e. Lohse) or an in-season move unless it involved shedding
salary (perhaps that of Pat Burrell?).
The Phillies sign Howard to a back-loaded four-year, $65 million deal.
With this contract, Howard averages over $16 million per season, so
he’s definitely being fairly compensated when you compare it to what
he’d make in arbitration. Backloading the contract allows the Phillies
flexibility in the immediate future, so they can still sign a player
like Kyle Lohse to round out the starting rotation while still ensuring
themselves that the mainstay in their offense is happy about his tenure
in Philadelphia and doesn’t demand to be traded.
When Howard is reaching the end of this four-year deal and is
destined for free agency, the Phillies may want to consider trading
Howard and moving Chase Utley over to first base. This is feasible only
if Adrian Cardenas makes significant progress in the Minor Leagues,
another impact second baseman is drafted and climbs the ranks quickly,
or the Phillies sign another good second baseman.
Howard’s deal will run out two years before Utley’s, so that means
that unlike the hypothetical six-year deal, the Phillies won’t be left
with having to deal with the simultaneous contracts of their two best
players. The Phillies can deal Howard without fearing that their
offense will collapse and won't have enough talent to contend.
The Phillies go year-to-year with Ryan Howard until after the 2011 season.
This is a dangerous way to go, as it will all but guarantee that
Howard will not be wearing a Phillies uniform in 2012. However, the
Phillies would end up getting a bargain and paying market value for a
top-tier first baseman, allowing them the financial flexibility to
round out the roster and give them the best chance to make a run at the
World Series. The Phillies are, if nothing else, a team built for the
immediate future.
Towards 2011, the Phillies could shop Howard around similar to how
the Twins are shopping Johan Santana. Teams would likely overpay for a
top-five offensive juggernaut (assuming Howard averages a 130 or so
OPS+) both in terms of players given up and the amount of Howard’s
remaining contract taken. Then the Phillies could move Utley to first
or shop for another first baseman in the off-season.
So, what should the Phillies do? The Good Phight analyzed how players most similar to Howard performed in their same-age seasons and concluded:
On balance, I think this data suggests that Howard
is a solid bet to deliver very good to excellent production over at
least the next 4-5 seasons.
“Very good” and “excellent” are ambiguous, perhaps intentionally so.
Either way, I’ll take “very good to excellent production” with a
backloaded four-year, $65-ish million deal for Howard. After ‘11,
either deal him or if he’s still productive as his career wanes in his
mid-30’s, maybe he’ll want to sign another lighter contract for the
Phillies.
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Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
