I was planning to do a recap of every game but I realized that you
can basically get a recap on any major baseball website and I was just
burdening myself with unnecessary writing. I’ll just stick to the
analysis that I don’t see being done.
That said, posts may be cranked out at a slower rate for the time
being because I finally upgraded from Microsoft Office 2000 to 2007 and
now I can use Pitch F/X data in Excel. So, I’ll be trying to learn how
to correctly use and analyze that, and I’ll try to implement it into my
analysis when possible.
To anyone who does have expertise with Pitch F/X, I will be needing
any pointers I can get, so please drop some hints for me if you can (my
contact information is listed at the bottom of this page). I’m really interested in learning how to create graphs like the ones Mike Fast has in this article about Johnny Cueto’s first start. I’ve also read his tutorial on building a database
for Pitch F/X data, and while my mind went numb almost immediately, it
does sound like a cool idea, but I know very little about Perl and
MySQL, so that’s another call to any experts out there willing to lend
a few pointers.
But enough about me and my shortcomings (that’s your cue to offer a hug).
Kyle Lohse
Remember how I was whining about the Phillies preventing themselves from signing Kyle Lohse? Yeah, well, this happened:
April 1 vs. Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K
April 6 vs. Washington Nationals: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Total: 12 IP, 0 R, 7 H, 4 BB (0.917 WHIP), 5 K
Yeah… and the St. Louis Cardinals signed him for one year at $4.25
million. Granted, he did face a Rockies lineup that has been struggling
all season and a Nationals offense that isn’t expected to be much
better than last year’s MLB-worst, but he’s pitched 12 innings without
surrendering a single run. That’s impressive.
I will give credit where credit is due, however, and that’s to Adam
Eaton. On April 5 in Cincinnati, Eaton held a decent Reds offense to
three runs in 7 and two-thirds innings. He had nearly a 2-to-1
strikes-to-balls ratio, but he still managed to walk four. It’s an
encouraging start from a pitcher almost everyone, myself included, gave
up on a long time ago. If the Phillies can just get league-average
production from Eaton, it’s a huge burden lifted off of the bullpen.
Pat Burrell
If the Phillies’ front office is thinking about letting Burrell walk
when the season is over, they’re crazy. He’s started the season hitting
3 HR and driving in 9 runs in the first seven games, posting an OPS of
1.476.
On Monday night’s Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech said,
half-seriously, that people should be thinking about Burrell
potentially completing the Philadelphia-themed MVP trifecta, since most
people are predicting that if anyone is going to win it as a Phillie
this year, it will be Chase Utley.
Since the Baseball Writers Association of America doesn’t really
know how to factor in a player’s true defensive contributions, it is
actually a realistic thought to imagine Burrell being named the
National League MVP. Burrell is not at all fleet of foot, and as a
result, his defense is burdensome. If the BBWAA knew of any of the
metrics that display this fact in all its glory, there’s not a chance
in hell that Burrell wins the award outside of a 60 HR, 150 RBI season.
It will be a shame if Burrell is forced to sign elsewhere after the
season because he has indicated that he relishes playing in
Philadelphia, so he’d probably be willing to take a hometown discount.
If the Phillies do decide to lock him up for a few more years, they
know what they’ll be getting, as Burrell is as consistent as they come.
From 2005 to ‘07, his slugging percentage ranged from .502 to .504 and
his OBP ranged from .388 to .400; home runs from 29 to 32; doubles from
24 to 27, and all of this consistency comes while losing at-bats in ‘06
and ‘07 from Charlie Manuel taking him out after the sixth or seventh
inning in a lot of games.
For me, though, the most satisfying statistic of his from 2007 is his 114 walks in just 598 plate appearances.
Jayson Werth vs. Geoff Jenkins
So far, Charlie Manuel has used the right field platoon as intended:
Werth against left-handed starters, Jenkins against right-handers.
However, Werth only has five at-bats in the Phillies’ first seven
games. Granted, the Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter,
and that was on Opening Day (Matt Chico of the Nationals), but you
can’t just hold Werth for the lefty starter — you have to start him
against a right-hander every now and then as well.
Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and doesn’t appear to be getting any
better, unsurprisingly. He’s been above-average over his career (115
OPS+) but in ‘06 and ‘07, he was just league average (101 OPS+ in both
seasons). Definitely use Jenkins against right-handers only, but let
him sit out one every now and then in favor of Werth.
In 19 at-bats, Feliz has put up an uninspiring 22 OPS+ for the
Phillies. That is not a misprint; that is a real, live, correctly
calculated 22 OPS+. He has four hits — all of them singles — and one
walk. There’s just nothing to say here. I know it’s early in the
season, small sample sizes and all that good stuff, but… a 22 OPS+?
Come on.
What we didn’t see coming is that he’d be a bottom-feeder defensively. Baseball’s best-fielding third baseman has sunk to the 12th out of 16
qualified NL third-sackers in Revised Zone Rating. It won’t stay that
way forever, and I fully expect Feliz to climb his way back up, but it
just illustrates how little value Feliz has to the Phillies right now.
He’s worse than a black hole.
Myers suspects he may have tipping his pitches, a problem he licked early in his career — which doesn’t mean it can’t re-occur.
[…]
“There were a few pitches that I had to question whether I was
tipping or not,” said Myers, who added that he didn’t notice anything
after looking at the game video. “They had good approaches. I’m not
saying I was [tipping pitches]. I’m just saying they had good
approaches.”
From the dugout, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel saw a pitcher
whose fastball velocity appeared lower than normal. Myers normally
throws in the 92-95 mph range. On Sunday, he reached 92 once, and
mostly stayed in the 88-91-mph range.
Myers is way too important to the Phillies to have any extended
stretch of bad pitching. Let’s hope he figures it out when he starts
against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Three-Game Set at Shea
The Phillies begin a three-game series in Queens bright and early: a 1:10 EST start. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Tues. 4/8, 1:10 PM EST: Jamie Moyer vs. Oliver Perez
Wed. 4/9, 7:10 PM EST: Kyle Kendrick vs. Mike Pelfrey
Thurs. 4/10, 7:10 PM EST: Adam Eaton vs. John Maine
The first thing you should notice about the match-ups is that the Phillies get to miss Johan Santana, as expected.
Second, Adam Eaton starts a game at Shea Stadium, and that has boded well for him. His starts at Shea last season:
April 11: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K
June 6: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 4.2 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K
That last start aside, he was great in Queens last season. Over his
career, Eaton has a 2.81 ERA in the Mets’ home ballpark and just over a
1.0 WHIP in 32 innings.
Before the bottom of the sixth inning in the third game of the
season, the Phillies were pathetically averaging as many errors as
runs: 7 in two and a half games.
The
Phillies’ strengths last season — offense and defense — seemed to be
their 2008 Achilles’ Heel. Nothing was going right and all of the
bounces favored their opponents. Suddenly, in the bottom of the sixth
inning, batted balls that were being caught previously were finding
holes and dropping in front of fielders. They scored six runs in an
impressive rally that consisted of no extra-base hits; rather, eight
singles, a hit batter, and a wild pitch. Nine straight Phillies batters
reached base before Chase Utley hit into a 3-2-3 double play to end the
inning. A recap of the carnage:
C. Utley singled to right
R. Howard singled to right, C. Utley to second
P. Burrell singled to left, C. Utley scored, R. Howard to third
G. Jenkins singled to right, R. Howard scored, P. Burrell to second
P. Burrell to third, G. Jenkins to second on wild pitch
P. Feliz singled to center, G. Jenkins and P. Burrell scored
C. Coste singled to right, P. Feliz to second
G. Dobbs singled to left, P. Feliz scored, C. Coste to second
J. Rollins hit by pitch, C. Coste to third, G. Dobbs to second
S. Victorino singled to right center, C. Coste scored, G. Dobbs to third, J. Rollins to second
Heading into the top of the seventh with their first lead since the
bottom of the fourth inning on Monday’s Opening Day game, the Phillies
asked their bullpen to be efficient. Ryan Madson responded, quickly
retiring all three Washington Nationals hitters he faced.
They had a chance to pad their newfound lead when Ryan Howard
singled and Pat Burrell doubled to lead off the bottom of the seventh,
but the offense went back into hiding as Geoff Jenkins struck out, and
Pedro Feliz and Chris Coste grounded out. Unfortunately, the Phillies
had to ask their bullpen to hold onto a one-run lead, and as expected,
they couldn’t do that.
Ryan Madson returned to the mound to start the eighth inning and
promptly walked lead-off hitter Ronnie Belliard on four pitches. He got
Felipe Lopez to lazily fly out to center fielder Shane Victorino, and
Jesus Flores almost did as well, but the ball fell in the proverbial
Bermuda’s Triangle between Jimmy Rollins, Burrell’s replacement in left
field Jayson Werth, and Victorino.
With Rob Mackowiak, a left-handed pinch-hitter, announced, Charlie
Manuel replaced Madson with J.C. Romero. Nationals’ manager Manny Acta
countered by pinch-hitting Paul Lo Duca for Mackowiak. Romero appeared
wild, not having thrown a true strike for the first five pitches, but
Lo Duca helped him out by swinging 3-1 at what would have been ball
four. Following suit as the previous two hitters, Lo Duca also lazily
flied out to center, and the Phillies looked like they’d actually
escape with the lead. Not so.
Cristian Guzman sharply hit a grounder just out of the reach of
third baseman Pedro Feliz. Jimmy Rollins slid to try and keep the ball
near the infield to prevent the tying run from scoring, but the ball
instead deflected off of his glove towards foul territory, and that did
allow Belliard to touch home plate. Lastings Milledge followed with
another infield single to load the bases for the dreaded Ryan
Zimmerman, already with two game-winning HR to his name. Luckily, the
Phillies continued his oh-fer day, as he grounded out to Jimmy Rollins
to end the inning at 7 runs apiece.
The Phillies loaded the bases with two outs in the bottom of the
eighth but couldn’t push in the go-ahead run. Manuel elected to use
Opening Day victim Tom Gordon to hold the game in a tie in the top of
the ninth inning, and boy, does Gordon make it interesting. He started
off well, striking out Austin Kearns, but Nick Johnson, after a great
at-bat in which he started 0-2 and worked it to 3-2, reached base via a
line drive that was just barely out of the reach of Utley’s glove. The
next three at-bats went walk, fly out, walk, so the bases were loaded
with two outs. Pinch-hitter Willie Harris came out to bat for reliever
Luis Ayala, and everyone in the stadium held their breath as Ryan
Howard cleanly fielded a grounder and flipped it to Gordon to end the
inning, the game still tied at 7-all. Gordon had a scoreless inning!
His ERA went down more than 100 points, from 135.00 to 33.75!
To mimic Seinfeld, yada yada yada, Phillies waste a Jenkins lead-off double in the bottom of the ninth, yada yada yada, game goes to extra innings, yada yada yada,
Jimmy Rollins starts off the bottom of the tenth with a lead-off
infield single. Victorino sacrifice bunts Rollins to second and
Rollins, noticing that only shortstop Cristian Guzman would be able to
cover third, raced him to the bag and did so safely, giving the
Phillies a runner on third base with one out, and Chase Utley and Ryan
Howard due up. Acta, for the second time in the game, ordered both of
them to be walked, putting the pressure on Jayson Werth. Reliever Jesus
Colome couldn’t find the plate and walked in the winning run on four
pitches, giving the Phillies their first win of the season.
Kyle Kendrick will face Josh Fogg tomorrow night when the Phillies visit the Cincinnati Reds for a 7:10 start.
Reasons why you would ever consider signing free agent third baseman Pedro Feliz:
You are a bottom-feeding organization like the Tampa Bay Rays or Kansas City Royals.
You have never looked at baseball statistics before.
You like your hitters reaching base in less than 30% of their plate appearances.
You are a vengeful GM and the fans have wronged you.
Feliz blackmailed you.
Yet, the Phillies, who have three third basemen (Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Eric Bruntlett) are close to signing Feliz to a two-year, $8.5 million deal:
An agreement is believed to be pending a physical, which
could happen sometime this week, though the Phillies would only confirm
that the sides are in discussions. The deal is reportedly for $8.5
million over two years with a team option for 2010 that could approach
$15 million, according to an Associated Press report.
Feliz has played seven full seasons of Major League Baseball, and in
none of them has he ever been close to the league average on-base
percentage (usually between .330 and .345). In fact, he’s only been
above .300 once in 2004 (.305).
Offensively, Feliz is a black hole. He ranked 31st on the San Francisco Giants in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) at -2.7.
So, we’ve established that Feliz is unattractive offensively and
attractive defensively. Depending on how much money the Phillies threw
at him, this signing could be one of those where you just shrug your
shoulders. Who knows, maybe Feliz will improve on his offense. After
all, he did play in the very pitcher-friendly A####mp;T Park, and
players, under the tutelage of manager/offensive guru Charlie Manuel
and hitting coach Milt Thompson, usually end up being more prone to
taking walks and set career highs in OBP. For instance:
Aaron Rowand: Career-high 32 walks before ’07’s total of 47 walk; career-high .361 OBP before ’07’s .374.
Rod Barajas: Career-high .306 OBP before ’07’s
.352. He was, however, helped by hitting mostly eighth in the line-up,
in front of the pitcher.
Jayson Werth: Career-high .338 OBP before ’07’s .404.
David Bell: Career-high .331 OBP before ’04’s .363.
Jason Michaels: .364 and .399 ‘04-05 OBP’s with the Phillies; .326 and .324 ‘06-07 OBP’s with the Indians.
Don’t forget that the Phillies have also had four of the best
on-base players in the game in Chase Utley (.410 OBP in ‘07), Ryan
Howard (.392), Pat Burrell (.400), and Bobby Abreu (.408 career OBP).
Feliz will likely fill in as the #7 hitter, ahead of the catcher
(Carlos Ruiz or Chris Coste) and the pitcher, so the impact of his lack
of offense will be dulled a bit. Either way, it’s a questionable
signing at best and rather unnecessary.
As promised, I am going to delve into the new look of the Phillies’ outfield, and I also want to criticize Gerry Fraley for a ridiculous article he wrote for The Sporting News. Being the lazy person that I am, I’d like to kill two birds with one stone. I’m going to break it down Fire Joe Morgan-style (his words in bold; mine will follow in regular typeface).
In two seasons without center fielder Aaron Rowand, the Chicago White Sox are a .500 team and heading south.
You know this is going to be a pro-Rowand article based on the
title, so let me just get this out of the way right off the bat: the
White Sox are not bad because Aaron Rowand left. In 2007, they had the
league’s worst offense, and the third-worst pitching. Rowand can’t
pitch and I’m pretty sure he’s not potent enough to bring his team from
a 4.28 runs per game average to around 5 per game, which would put them
slightly behind sixth place. Barry Bonds might have been able to do
that, but certainly not Aaron Rowand.
The White Sox were bad in ‘07 because Paul Konerko had a .091 point
decline in OPS from the previous season, Jermaine Dye had a .204
decline in OPS, and Jim Thome was the only potent offensive force in
the lineup. Jon Garland has been decidedly mediocre, and the back of
their starting rotation was about as unproductive as it could have
been. And aside from Bobby Jenks, their bullpen was nearly as bad as
the Phillies’.
After saying he wanted to stay with the Phillies, Rowand
swerved and signed a five-year, $60-million deal with San Francisco.
His change of heart puts the Phillies in a bind.
“Bind” is hyperbole. The Phillies would have preferred to keep
Rowand in his age 30-32 years, but he wanted five years at $12 million,
which is what he got from the Giants. He simply wasn’t worth it.
Jayson Werth isn’t a terrible Plan B, and Rowand’s departure simply
made the Phillies look for a Plan B2 and B3, which was searching for
either another regular center fielder (Cameron), or moving Victorino to
center and finding a platoon partner for Werth (Geoff Jenkins).
Look at it this way, using simple OPS:
Aaron Rowand: .779 OPS vs. RHP (68% of career PA); .862 vs. LHP (32%); .805 vs. both.
Shane Victorino: .741 OPS vs. both.
Mike Cameron: .767 OPS vs. RHP (75% of career PA); .843 OPS vs. LHP (25%); .786 vs. both.
Geoff Jenkins: .883 OPS vs. RHP (76% of career PA)
Jayson Werth: .864 OPS vs. LHP (29% of career PA)
Here are the expected OPS, based on career averages, out of the possible CF and RF combinations:
Rowand/Victorino: .773 OPS
Cameron/Victorino: .764
Victorino/(Werth+Jenkins): .787*
* Because Jenkins will face RHP, and batters see RHP about 3 times
more than LHP, I weighted Jenkins and Werth’s OPS to reflect this. I
assumed that the two will combine for 625 at-bats (which is generous
considering how potent the Phillies’ lineup is and how adept they are
at getting on base).
Jenkins: Averages 1 base every 2.0 at-bats. With 75% of 625 at-bats,
that’s 469 at-bats, giving him about 235 total bases, and a slugging
percentage of .501.
Werth: Averages 1 base every 2.3 at-bats. With 25% of 625 at-bats,
that’s 156 at-bats, giving him about 68 total bases, and a slugging
percentage of .436.
Add ‘em together (.485 + .348 ) and you have an expected .833 OPS out of right field. *
Phew.
They previously traded center-fielder-in-waiting Michael
Bourn to Houston in the Brad Lidge deal. Plan C for the Phillies calls
for moving Shane Victorino, whose durability is in question, to center
and going with a platoon of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in right.
While the Phillies had some expectations of Bourn when he was
considered a top prospect in their farm system (not hard to be,
actually), he only showed Juan Pierre-esque ability: great speed,
ability to bunt, and above-average range in the outfield. They already
have a guy like that (but better) in Shane Victorino. Bourn simply
didn’t fit and was thusly expendable.
And Fraley has the plans all messed up! Bourn is Plan B? Any team
who has a Plan B as replacing a center fielder with decent defense and
some power potential with a slap-hitter is clearly a team general-managed by Ned Colletti.
Shame on this guy also for not tiering the Plan B’s.
The Phillies will also learn what the White Sox now know. Rowand is harder to replace in the clubhouse than on the field.
Whenever sports journalists wax romantic on intangibles, the
cholesterol lining my arteries gets a little bit harder. But I should
know — intangibles have been tangiblized (hat tip to FJM).
Rowand is an NFL free safety masquerading as a center
fielder. He plays relentlessly, a style the Phillies privately feared
may shorten his career, and that rubs off on teammates. He is a leader
in the true sense of the word.
First, I don’t see how being akin to an NFL free safety makes you a
valuable baseball player. Then Gerry contradicts himself by saying the
Phillies didn’t like his balls-out style of play because it increases
his risk of injury and a “shortened career.”
Gerry, however, rebounds by saying that this career-shortening style of play is rubbing off on teammates! Hopefully not in the way it rubbed off on Chase Utley.
That is why the White Sox and the Phillies both wanted to
sign Rowand. They have seen first-hand how valuable he is to the
dynamic of a winning team.
Phillies players as or more important to the NL East pennant than
Rowand: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Brett
Myers, J.C. Romero (arguably).
I get it: take Rowand away and the Phillies don’t win the East. But
that can also be said of Russell Branyan, who was with the Phillies for
all of 9 at-bats, one of which won them a game in Washington. And the Phillies won the East by one game.
Seasons of catering to Barry Bonds turned their clubhouse
into a nest of apathy. Near the end of the season, manager Bruce Bochy
said the last-place club lacked “a warrior spirit.”
The king of the team lacking “a warrior spirit” put up an OPS+ 170
with a knee that gets regular fluid injections at age forty-two.
Forty-two. Save his injury-plagued 2005 season, Bonds has led the
National League in on-base percentage every season since 2001.
The Giants were bad last year because, aside from Bonds and Randy
Winn (barely), no one in the lineup was hitting at or above the league
average, which makes it easy to believe that they had the league’s
second-worst offense. They had a good, but not great starting rotation,
and a decent bullpen. Blaming Bonds for the Giants’ failures last
season (or in any season) is beyond reprehensible and downright
ignorant.
San Francisco may remain stuck in last in the demanding National League West, but the Giants will not go quietly.
Earlier in the article, Fraley contends that teams that have Aaron
Rowand win, and teams that lose him end up losing. Now Fraley says that
the Giants get Rowand… but they “may remain stuck in last”?
In explaining the signing, general manager Brian Sabean said
Rowand was “far and away a plus” in the areas of concern for the
Giants.
“His no-nonsense approach is known throughout the game,” Sabean said. “Including inside the clubhouse.”
So, the areas of concern for the Giants aren’t offense, starting
pitching, and the bullpen? It’s a no-nonsense approach? No wonder they
haven’t reached 77 wins in three seasons.
You read right. 500-to-1. They were that much an underdog on
September 12, seven games behind the New York Mets in the National
League East (Baseball Prospectus goes over some of the biggest
collapses here, and mentions this year’s playoff hunt).
Today, on October 1, the Mets are officially out of the playoffs
(the second-worst collapse in baseball history, after the 1964 Phillies
and the worst since divisional play began in 1969), while the Phillies
are officially in for the first time since 1993.
The coaching staff acted rashly and moved their then-ace Brett
Myers to the bullpen to pitch the 8th inning (when Tom Gordon went down
with an injury, Myers moved to closer).
Ryan Howard, the reigning NL MVP, had a horrible April (.390 SLG) and then missed two weeks from May 10 to 24.
Pat Burrell had a mind-bogglingly awful first-half of the season (.408 SLG).
They started the season with six starting pitchers (Garcia, Lieber,
Hamels, Eaton, Myers, Moyer). By season’s end, only one of them would
not spend a day on the disabled list — the 44-year-old, who ended up
pitching Sunday’s game, the biggest Phillies game in 14 years. In
addition, the Phillies set a club record for most pitchers used in a
season (28).
More than a month after moving Myers to the bullpen, he got injured
closing out a game in Florida and missed the next two months. By
season’s end, nine Phillies have recorded saves (Myers, Alfonseca
Gordon, Condrey, Madson, Mesa, Rosario, Durbin, Ennis).
Wes Helms showed himself to be a free agent bust, and saw his
playing time significantly reduced in the last two months in favor of
the offense of Greg Dobbs and defense of Abraham Nunez.
The franchise reached 10,000 losses on July 15.
And despite ALL of that…
The Phillies won the most games in a season (89) since 1993 (97).
Jimmy Rollins, en route to a possible and likely NL MVP award,
recorded the fourth 20 2B/20 3B/20 HR/20 SB season in baseball history,
joining Curtis Granderson (also achieved this year), Willie Mays, and
Frank Schulte. In addition, he played in all 162 games, and set records
in at-bats and plate appearances, surpassing Willie Wilson and Lenny
Dykstra, respectively.
Pat Burrell followed up his awful first half with an amazing second
half (1.016 OPS) and finished the season with at least 30 HR for the
third time in his eight-year career.
Ryan Howard followed up his awful first half with an amazing second
half (1.016 OPS) and finished the season with 47 HR and led the
National League with 136 RBI.
The Phillies overcame the one-month loss of then-MVP candidate
Chase Utley to a hand injury when Pat Gillick made a quick acquisition
of Tadahito Iguchi, who instantly took to the red pinstripes.
The Phillies overcame the three-week loss (and light use following
his return) of Shane Victorino, and the six-week loss of Michael Bourn
(both lost in the same game in Chicago) with the help of Jayson Werth
(.950 second-half OPS), who at one point hit safely in nine straight
at-bats, breaking Pete Rose’s mark of 8 at-bats.
The starting rotation changed from Hamels, Moyer, Lieber, Garcia,
and Eaton at the start of the season to Hamels, Moyer, Kendrick, Lohse,
and Eaton by season’s end. Kendrick is a solid candidate for some
third-place Rookie of the Year votes.
J.C. Romero put up an insane 369 ERA+. A 100 ERA+ is considered league-average.
In their campaign against the Mets, the Phillies beat them in eight
consecutive games, including sweeps of a four-game series in
Philadelphia and a three-game series in New York.
44-year-old Jamie Moyer, born in Sellersville, PA, pitched the
biggest game for his hometown team since 1993. He went 5 and one-third
innings, giving up only one unearned run on five hits and no walks,
striking out six.
There were far too many great storylines for this year’s
Philadelphia Phillies, and far too much going against them. Yet they
persevered. It couldn’t have happened to a more likable group of guys
or a more deserving group of fans.
Advantage: Phillies
The San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies play a one-game playoff to
determine the Wild Card winner at Coors Field tonight. The Padres will
send Cy Young candidate Jake Peavy (176 ERA+) to the mound to face
Rockies starter Josh Fogg (99 ERA+).
This is beneficial for the Phillies for a few reasons.
Both teams will be at the disadvantage of having played an extra
game, adding to the risk of injury, and adding to the already high
level of fatigue in most of the players.
If the Padres win, they will have burned their “ace in the hole” in
Peavy until at least Game 3 of the NLDS. It’s even more beneficial when
you consider that the Padres’ starting rotation hasn’t been great.
Chris Young, for example, has a 5.96 ERA since returning from his
injury. Meanwhile, the Phillies will have their ace, Cole Hamels,
pitching Game 1 and likely Game 4.
While not a long flight, the Padres are at another disadvantage for
having to go on the road. The Phillies get to rest until Wednesday.
Give ‘em Credit
The Phillies’ 2007 run at the post-season will forever be linked to
the biggest divisional collapse in baseball history by the New York
Mets. Due to this fact, the Phillies will likely not be given much
credit for winning themselves so much as winning by default because of
the Mets’ inadequacies.
The Phillies played .623 baseball in August and September, and, as
mentioned, beat the Mets in eight consecutive games. Not only was this
due to the Phillies’ league-best offense, but the settling down of the
pitching staff. They had their occasional bad games, but nothing like
the first half when it was commonplace. Since September 13, the
Phillies have given up 68 total runs in those 17 games, an average of
exactly 4 runs per game, more than a full run better than their
seasonal average of 5.07 runs per game.
While the Mets definitely were in a position to cinch the deal in
the NL East, let’s give credit where credit is due — to the
Philadelphia Phillies.
When Words Aren’t Enough
Yahoo! has some great pictures from the Associated Press, Reuters, and Getty Images.
[…]Hall of Fame announcer Harry Kalas sang “High Hopes” over the public address system.
You have to have seen and heard it to appreciate it. Kalas won’t be
on American Idol any time soon, but it was a moment where every one of
his off-key notes sounded infinitely harmonic.
Please advise me if a video of this is posted on the Internets!
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
The
Phillies’ strengths last season — offense and defense — seemed to be
their 2008 Achilles’ Heel. Nothing was going right and all of the
bounces favored their opponents. Suddenly, in the bottom of the sixth
inning, batted balls that were being caught previously were finding
holes and dropping in front of fielders. They scored six runs in an
impressive rally that consisted of no extra-base hits; rather, eight
singles, a hit batter, and a wild pitch. Nine straight Phillies batters
reached base before Chase Utley hit into a 3-2-3 double play to end the
inning. A recap of the carnage:
