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2007 MLB Predictions.

See my predictions from last year.

With Phils in Hunt, Utley, Howard Due for MVP Consideration Harry Kalas is the legendary voice of the Phillies

Longtime Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas has seen just about everything there is to see in the great game of baseball. Since 1971, he has seen the ups and downs -- mostly downs -- of the Philadelphia Phillies. He has seen Rick Wise, Terry Mulholland, Tommy Greene, and Kevin Millwood throw no-hitters, the only two seasons the Phillies crossed the 100-win mark (1976 and '77), Mike Schimidt's four-homerun game on April 12, 1976, and three World Series berths, highlighted by the 1980 championship.

Still, Harry Kalas was beside himself when, on August 9, 2006 in a game against the Braves, Chase Utley scored on a routine grounder to the first baseman -- from second base. Kalas was caught by surprise as a result of how routine the play was, and as Utley slid safely behind Atlanta Braves catcher Todd Pratt, exclaimed, "Chase Utley, you are the man!"

WHERE UTLEY RANKS
As of 08/10/06 Statistic Value Rank
NL/MLB Projection Average .328 5/8 .328 Hits 150 1/3 215 RBI 74 14/31 106 Runs 95 1/1 136 Doubles 33 8/13 47 Slugging Pct. .550 11/22 .550 Total Bases 252 3/5 361 At-Bats 459 5/9 658 Stolen Bases 12 20/36 17

To be called "the man" by one of baseball's most legendary broadcasters -- one who is in the Hall of Fame -- who has seen tens of thousands of players, and nearly as many occurrences in the game, denotes some otherwordly talent. Utley, named to his first All-Star game -- starting second baseman, no less -- is taking the baseball world by storm. At Citizens Bank Park, where the fans are known for their creative groups, such as "Padilla's Flotilla" and "The Wolf Pack," Utley has not one, but two fan groups: "Utley's Uglies" and "Chase's Chicks." Sports Illustrated has a great feature on him in their latest issue, dubbing him baseball's "dirtiest" player, with Eric Byrnes, Jorge Posada, Chone Figgins, Ryan Freel, Brian Roberts and Grady Sizemore as honorable mentions.

The Philadelphia Phillies are now Utley's team following the trade of Bobby Abreu, and it is a wise time for them to name him the team's honorary captain, just as catcher Jason Varitek is for the Boston Red Sox. The UCLA graduate has gone from introversion to leadership in less than a year, leading not just with words, but by example as well (see table above). According to The Bill James Handbook, he was able to take the extra base about 44% of the time when given the opportunity last season, a great percentage. Only two teammates ranked higher: Jimmy Rollins (51%) and Bobby Abreu (48%).

WHERE HOWARD RANKS
As of 08/10/06 Statistic Value Rank
NL/MLB Projection Hits 120 18/45 172 RBI 102 1/2 146 Slugging Pct. .622 4/9 .622 Total Bases 255 2/3 365 Walks 57 15/26 82

His "grittiness" not only endears him to Phillies fans, but tangibly puts his team in a better position to win by beating out what are otherwise routine groundouts, as well as taking that extra base. According to The Hardball Times, Utley creates 7.8 runs per game*, which ranks 14th in the National League, 3.8 behind leader Albert Pujols.

Utley's competition for Most Valuable Player is only about 60 feet to his left in Ryan Howard. The 6'4" 252-pound first baseman is the reigning 2005 Rookie of the Year, and is the National League's version of David Ortiz. His 39 HR and 102 RBI is best in the National League. Despite striking out 128 times, six behind MLB-leader Adam Dunn, he still has a .293 batting average, which is stunningly high for a pure power hitter with a high amount of strikeouts.

Howard's 7.5 runs created per game is a sliver behind Utley, but because homeruns and RBI are sexier statistics, Howard gets noticed more for being a big contributor to his ballclub. The 2006 Homerun Derby winner projects to finish with 56 HR, which would be the highest total since Alex Rodriguez hit 57 in 2002. Howard also projects to finish with 146 RBI, just behind the 148 that David Ortiz finished with last season.

Utley and Howard are
candidates for the MVP award.

MVP awards typically go to players whose teams make the playoffs, and the Wild Card is still a very viable option for the Phillies, three games back, in a weak National League. As of August 9, six teams -- four of which are from the NL West -- were three games or less behind the Wild Card-leading Cincinnati Reds. With 49 games left, the Phillies have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. A ten-game homestand starts on August 11, when the Phillies will play the Reds (59-56) three times, the New York Mets (69-44) for four, and the Washington Nationals (50-64) for three.

The ten-game homestand is followed by a ten-game road trip, where the Phillies will play four with the Chicago Cubs (48-66), and three each with the Mets and Nationals. They move into September seven at home, where they will play seven games in six days; four against the Atlanta Braves (52-61), and three against the Houston Astros (55-58). Another ten-game road trip follows: four with the Florida Marlins (52-61), and three each with the Braves and Astros. The Phillies' last six at home are played next, three apiece with the Cubs and Marlins, then head out on the road for the final six games of the season with the Nationals and Marlins.

All that being said, the combined record of the teams the Phillies will be competing against is 385-410 (.484). Only two of the teams have a winning record, and only 20% of the remaining games are played against them. Take out the Mets, and the combined record is 316-366 (.463). Then factor in that the Mets will use the remaining time to tinker with their bench players and bullpen, and that the NL West will go down to the wire with all five teams beating up on each other, and the only teams the Phillies have to worry about in the Wild Card are the Reds and Astros (20% of the games against those two).

The Phillies have a very realistic shot at the playoffs this season. Should the Phillies actually reach the postseason for the first time since 1993, don't be surprised if Chase Utley or Ryan Howard walk away with the MVP award. It all starts with their next three games against the Reds. If they sweep, they'll be tied for the Wild Card lead; if they get swept, they can count themselves out of the playoffs for the twelfth straight season.

*Runs Created Per Game (RC/G) is Runs Created (on-base percentage times total bases) divided by the number of outs made by the batter, times 27.

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Coste Coasting As A Major Leaguer

Chris Coste during a spring training exhibition game at Citizens Bank Park.

At 33 years old, Chris Coste is a five-time All-Star who is coming off o####reat month of June in which he hit at an impressive .333 clip.

But you've never heard of the rookie.

Coste was born on February 4, 1973 in Fargo, North Dakota. He made his Major League debut on May 27, 2006, a culmination of years of toiling in the lowest depths of the Minor Leagues, toiling just to hear the phone call he received on May 21. The call that told him he would finally make it to "the show."

Looking at the 25-man roster the Philadelphia Phillies had going into the 2006 season, it is understandable why Coste did not make the team out of spring training (though he expected to), despite hitting .463 with 3 HR and 11 RBI and being about as clutch as David Ortiz in 41 at-bats. He was listed on the catching depth chart behind Mike Lieberthal, who has long been the starting catcher of the Philadelphia Phillies, Sal Fasano, a veteran who was signed specifically to handle the younger arms in the rotation, as well as a few of the young catching prospects in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre such as Carlos Ruiz. Even Coste knew the chips would have to fall correctly in place for him to make it to the Major Leagues.

Fortunately for Coste, the chips did fall in place. Mike Lieberthal strained his left hip and was placed on the disabled list on May 7, pushing Fasano into the starting role, and promoting Ruiz into the backup role. Ruiz, however, did not perform well in 14 games, hitting only .143 with one RBI, and was subsequently sent back down to the Minor Leagues.

Chris Coste at third base.

Backup infielder Alex Gonzalez retired, making room for Coste to move up and Ruiz down, along with outfielder Chris Roberson, to make room for centerfielder Aaron Rowand, who was put on the disabled list following a faceplant into the wall to save three runs.

And he got the phone call. "I was sitting in my bed waiting to wake up from a dream," Coste said. "I drove between 55 [mph] and 83 the whole way."

Coste, who grew up hitting rocks with a bat and throwing tennis balls at his steps, whose home state of North Dakota did not have baseball in high school, now has his own Major League uniform with his last name neatly sewn above his number 27, a uniform that hangs in a Major League clubhouse at a Major League ballpark. To say that Coste, who has spent fifteen years in the Minor Leagues, is enjoying his time -- limited time -- in "the show" is a vast understatement.

"I don't have a lot of years left. I still feel like I'm a good player, but my body doesn't do some of the things it used to," Coste said. "I've always said that if I ever do make it to the big leagues, it will mean that much more because of the stuff I've experienced, things like playing in independent leagues that no longer exist, riding on a bus for 20 hours that then runs out of gas, all those little things that make you appreciate it more."

Coste got his first Major League hit and RBI on June 16 in a 10-4 loss to the visiting Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He has yet to hit a homerun, and with his once-a-week start, it may be a nicety that will elude Coste. But with a batting stance and swing that look like something out of a cartoon, with fifteen years of Minor League service and 34 Major League at-bats, for the three-time Northern League Division and two-time Independent League All-Star, it is only a matter of time, just like everything else for Chris Coste.

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With Pujols Out, Howard Must Go In

Ryan Howard is the best first baseman in the National League sans-Pujols.

He winced and clutched at his side, the baseball that hovered above his head landing with an inaudible thud, the sound being drowned out by the pain. As Cardinal fans saw their slugger pull up lame, the dream of Albert Pujols' run at Barry Bonds' single-season homerun record (73) and Hack Wilson's single-season RBI record (191) vanished as if that thought bubble had been poked by a pencil. MRI tests returned inconclusive, so Pujols' return date from his strained oblique is questionable, but it won't be anytime soon. His 25 HR and 65 RBI are still best in Major League Baseball, leading second place Alfonso Soriano by three homeruns and Andruw Jones by eleven RBI, but the question just seven days into the third month of baseball is, "Who will take his spot in the All-Star Game?"

Easy: Ryan Howard.

Not according to the voters. Fans think Carlos Delgado is the best first baseman after Pujols, who has nearly three-and-a-half times the votes Delgado has (1,041,466 to 304,287). Howard sits fifth in line with 187,202 votes behind Lance Berkman and Nomar Garciaparra.

Top 5 NL First Basemen
	AVG	HR	RBI	Votes
Albert Pujols	.308	25	65	1,041,466
Carlos Delgado	.248	16	37	304,287
Lance Berkman	.299	16	47	228,465
Nomar Garciaparra	.363	7	40	203,239
Ryan Howard	.293	20	51	187,202

Howard's 20 homeruns and 51 RBI each rank third in the National League, and his .293 batting average is still great considering his strikeouts (58 in 208 at-bats) and the mere fact that he is a power hitter (Mark McGwire had a .263 batting average, for example). And besides, what better way for the reigning National League Rookie of the Year to show he isn't just a flash in the pan than by starting in the All-Star Game in his first full season as a Major Leaguer?

Currently, Howard is on pace to finish the season with 57 HR, which would be the most since Alex Rodriguez hit 57 in 2002, and 147 RBI, one behind the Major League-best 148 David Ortiz drove in last year. Barring a dramatic comeback, Pujols figures to sit at least past the Midsummer Classic, making Howard the most deserving first baseman.

Most Popular Cardinals by the Numbers
	AVG	HR	RBI
Pujols	.308	25	65
Rest*	.277	3.25	25
*Eckstein, Edmonds, Molina, Rolen

Should Howard be put on the team as a reserve, or not make the team at all, the All-Star Game would be revealed as the joke that it is. In 2002, the All-Star Game was called a draw by commissioner Bud Selig after both the American and National Leagues drained their pitching staves. Selig then tried to make the Game meaningful by giving the winning league home-field advantage in the World Series. The game is supposed to be for the fans, but the majority of fans clearly just vote for recognizable names, which would explain Yadier Molina garnering the third-most votes among National League catchers with a .206 batting average, one homerun, and 20 RBI. So Toguchi is among the leaders in outfielders (13th) but is only hitting .285 with 1 HR and 20 RBI. The Cardinals trend continues with Jim Edmonds at fourth in votes among outfielders with a .247 average, 5 HR, and 31 RBI. Scott Rolen, while hitting .339 with 6 HR and 34 RBI, has clearly abdicated New York's David Wright (.327, 10, 39) or Florida's Miguel Cabrera (.349, 9, 43).

There is still about one month left before the voting booths are closed, so to speak. Optimistically, the voting will balance itself out, pushing the undeserving Cardinals to the side and putting the more deserving players in. Realistically, though, that won't happen. The starting lineup for the National League will likely be half Cardinals, half everybody else, and Ryan Howard will undeservedly sit in the top of the first inning, watching Carlos Delgado take infield practice from Scott Rolen.

The glass is still half-full, but a refill is sorely needed.

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