Ah, power rankings. Nowhere are they more meaningless than in
baseball. But Aram Tolegian, whom I’ve never heard of until just now,
released “the first batch” of MLB power rankings for FOX Sports.
It is a perfect storm: I have a lot of time on my hands, and this
guy used tons of flawed logic. This day is going to go pretty fast.
#1 Detroit Tigers
No team had a better off-season, and for that reason the Tigers occupy the top spot.
The Tigers definitely had the best off-season. They ranked 9th out
of 14 AL teams in runs allowed per game, and 2nd of 14 in runs scored
per game. So what do they do? They go out and acquire Miguel Cabrera
and Dontrelle Willis in a trade. They failed to improve their pitching
staff, and they have overkill offensively. I wouldn’t say they had the
best off-season. In fact, when you look at it objectively, they had a
rather poor one. They had pitching problems at both ends going into the
offseason, and they only addressed it by acquiring Willis, who can’t be
relied upon for anything, as his ‘07 campaign isn’t much of an
aberration when you look at his statistics (everything is close to his
career norm).
And the Boston Red Sox, the defending World Series champions, and
the team that didn’t take a step back in anyway except in losing Curt
Schilling to injury, should be #1.
#2 Cleveland Indians
No argument here.
#3 Boston Red Sox
The rotation doesn’t look overly strong and the offense
certainly doesn’t project better than those owned by the Indians,
Tigers or Yankees.
No argument about the Indians’ rotation. However…
Red Sox
Player: ‘07 ERA+
Beckett: 145
Matsuzaka: 108
Wakefield: 100
Lester: 104
Buchholz: 298 (only 4 starts, one of which was a no-hitter)
Tigers
Verlander: 125
Rogers: 103
Robertson: 96
Bonderman: 91
Willis: 83
Yankees
Pettitte: 110
Wang: 121
Mussina: 87
Hughes: 100
Chamberlain: 1192 (only 24 IP, all as a reliever)
The starting rotation of the Red Sox is clearly the most dominant,
with the Yankees’ trailing and the Tigers’ clearly lagging far behind.
#4 Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks may have arrived a year early last season, but
that’s what often happens when there’s a boatload of endless upside on
the roster.
No, that’s what happens when you out-perform your Pythagorean W-L by
11 games. The D-Backs allowed 732 runs and scored only 712. The
Diamondbacks had one of the worst RS/RA margins of teams that made the
playoffs. Adding Dan Haren will offset the crash to Earth that the
Diamondbacks will face, but they’re not some powerhouse simply because
they had very favorable run distribution last season.
Of their eight regulars, only four had an OPS+ over 100, and all of them were just barely:
Jackson: 110
Hudson: 106
Reynolds: 110
Byrnes: 104
The D-Backs ranked dead last in the NL in OBP and 9th of 16 in SLG.
And who’d they add in the off-season to help provide more offense?
Chris Burke?
Please consider that last year’s success was done primarily
without Randy Johnson and with Dan Haren still in Oakland. Both will
start the season as part of the rotation, which means the D-backs take
another big step forward.
Randy Johnson needs to stay healthy. At age 44, how realistic is this expectation?
#5 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Fans had the entire off-season to project how big the Angels’
winning margin in the AL West would be. But all of that changed when
the Mariners traded for Erik Bedard. Now things may not be so easy in
the West. The Angels still deserve the nod simply because this is a
team with very few holes and a solid mix of veterans and youth with
upside.
Ugh, so many generalities. But he’s correct in saying that the
Angels are the top team in the AL West. As we’ll find out, the Mariners
are being overrated.
#6 New York Yankees
The organization is doing the right thing by building from
within now that the strategy of being the league’s most active
off-season team has proven futile. For a team that’s supposedly in
transition, this season won’t be too painful.
There’s a reference to the youth on the Yankees, but no mention of
how that will affect them. And there’s no reference to their shaky
starting rotation. Chien-Ming Wang has an extremely low K-rate, and
pitchers with low K-rates don’t have the same sustained success that
those with high K-rates do.
What of Mike Mussina? Should he have just retired? 2007 was the
worst season of his 17-year career. Excluding his first season in ‘91,
he set career lows in IP and strikeouts, and career highs in ERA and
WHIP. And he’s 39.
Andy Pettitte is always reliable for decent production, but two straight seasons with a 1.4 WHIP is concerning.
Phil Hughes showed flashes of brilliance, but he’s only 21.
Similarly, Joba Chamberlain is 22 and has never made a Major League
start.
The Yankees will have a great offense as they always do, but their
starting rotation will make or break them, as it does so many other
teams.
#7 Los Angeles Dodgers
There are also several position battles in key places, like
third base where Nomar Garciaparra may not have enough left in the tank
to fend off prospect Andy LaRoche. Another battle to watch is in the
outfield where the Dodgers have Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp
vying for the two spots flanking Andruw Jones. And what about Jason
Schmidt? There have been no setbacks in his return from shoulder
surgery, but fans should keep their fingers crossed nonetheless.
Nothing here justified the Dodgers at #7. They have a
middle-of-the-road offense and after Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, their
starting rotation falters. Of course, they have that great bullpen to
fall back on, but it’s not even close to enough to justify them at #7.
#8 New York Mets
Trading for Johan Santana has energized the organization heading into spring.
He has the Diamondbacks (#4) and Dodgers (#7) ahead of the Mets, who
appear to be solid on all fronts. The Mets had the NL’s fourth-best
offense and 7th-best pitching staff, and before Santana, they had
stayed relatively idle. Adding Santana gives them a top-tier pitching
staff, and combine that with their top-tier offense, the Mets should be
higher than #8 and #3 in the NL.
#9 Toronto Blue Jays
I’ll give you a minute to stop laughing before I quote him on why he put the Jays at #9.
Ready?
If you view the glass as half full in Toronto, you’ve got a team
with a solid rotation, a major defensive improvement at third in Scott
Rolen and a burgeoning superstar in OF Alex Rios.
2007 Troy Glaus Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP; accounts for both offense and defense): 5.8
2007 Scott Rolen WARP: 5.6
It’s a break-even change at best. Given Rolen’s back problems, playing on the Toronto turf isn’t going to help him any.
Let’s see… the Jays’ offense ranked 10th out of 14 teams, and their
pitching staff ranked a distant second to the Red Sox. Yes, their
starting rotation is relatively solid, but Dustin McGowan, Shaun
Marcum, and Jesse Litsch are all in their mid-20’s and not one of them
had sustained Major League success before 2007, so it’s hard to expect
similar production from them in 2008. It’s fair to expect a regression.
Even in their bullpen, they featured guys having unexpected success.
Jeremy Accardo, Casey Janssen, and Scott Downs never had anything close
to the kind of success they had last season.
#9 is too high for the Jays.
#10 Colorado Rockies
The old style of thinking that pitching will ultimately do in
the Rox has to be discarded. Although it would have been nice to see
the team upgrade its rotation this off-season.
When you adjust for park effects (obviously, pitching in Coors Field
deflates your pitching statistics, and all of their starters had 4.00+
ERA’s), the Rockies had a decent rotation. Among those who pitched 100+
innings…
Francis: 114 ERA+
Fogg: 97
Cook: 116
Hirsh: 100
In addition, the Rockies’ bullpen was superb. Even in Coors Field,
the Rockies’ bullpen featured six guys who pitched 45+ innings and kept
their ERA under 4.00:
Fuentes: 3.08 ERA (155 ERA+)
Corpas: 2.08 ERA (231 ERA+)
Affeldt: 3.51 ERA (137 ERA+)
Hawkins: 3.42 ERA (140 ERA+)
Julio: 3.93 ERA (122 ERA+)
Herges: 2.96 ERA (162 ERA+)
Of those six, only Affeldt and Julio departed. Their bullpen will be
strong again in ‘08. The Rockies should be top-three in the NL, along
with the Mets and Phillies.
#11 Seattle Mariners
The addition of Erik Bedard cannot be understated as the M’s may own the best one-two punch in the West.
There are only three other teams to compete with… but even then,
I’ll take John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar (or Jered Weaver since Escobar
will miss the first month of the regular season) over Bedard and Felix
Hernandez.
Lackey/Escobar/Weaver ERA+: 151/134/117
Bedard/Hernandez ERA+: 146/110
Bedard helps a middling Mariners pitching staff, but he won’t be
enough to save Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva from
mediocrity.
Additionally, J.J. Putz aside, the Mariners’ great ‘07 bullpen
featured a bunch of young guys having phenomenal seasons (like the Blue
Jays), and we can’t reasonably expect repeat performances.
Raul Ibanez and Ichiro Suzuki will be offensive mainstays for the
Mariners, but they are going to feature Brad Wilkerson regularly in
right field, and he hasn’t put up an above-average offensive season
since 2004 when he was in Montreal. Adrian Beltre will be slightly
above-average, and Richie Sexson will continue to kick his OBP and SLG
into a black hole.
Bedard aside, the Mariners are mediocre and I’d be surprised if they finished within 5 games of the Angels in the AL West.
#12 Milwaukee Brewers
It’s kind of scary to think of what the Brewers accomplished
last season with Ben Sheets managing only 141 innings and Rickie Weeks
suffering from the lingering effects of a wrist injury.
The Brewers featured an above-average player at every offensive
position except catcher and center field. Despite a sub-par starting
rotation, the Brewers rode their offense and decent bullpen to a finish
of four games over .500.
They lost Francisco Cordero, but they got Eric Gagne, David Riske,
and Salomon Torres, which more than offsets the loss. In acquiring
Cameron, Bill Hall will move to third base, and Ryan Braun will move to
left field.
The Brewers probably won’t see any marked improvement in their
5th-best NL offense or 9th-best pitching staff. The neighborhood of 83
wins continues to be a likely landing spot.
#13 Philadelphia Phillies
The feeling here is that Phillies took a step back this
off-season. How any team can trust Brad Lidge to close is beyond us.
But that’s assuming he’s even on the mound. Lidge had surgery to repair
cartilage in his right knee in October. It goes without saying that
this is something to watch in spring. If you believe Aaron Rowand was
the unsung hero of the offense last season, then being optimistic about
the Phils gets that much harder now that he’s in San Francisco.
How the Phillies are 6th-best in the NL according to Aram is
baffling. They feature the NL’s best offense by far, three legitimate
MVP candidates in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, one of
the best 1-2 punches in the NL with Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, and a
markedly improved bullpen. In addition, their defense will set the
standard in the NL, and they easily have the deepest bench in the
league.
The only question marks with the Phillies are Cole Hamels’ health
(he’s always been an injury concern, even throughout the Minor Leagues)
and the #3-5 spots in the rotation. Kyle Kendrick had a stunning ‘07
season and is a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park given his ground
ball tendencies. However, that was only one year and it could just be a
fluke. Jamie Moyer, if Julio Franco doesn’t sign with a team, will be
baseball’s oldest player on Opening Day, and Adam Eaton will have the
#5 spot in the rotation most likely.
If the Santana pushes the Mets to #1 in the NL, the Phillies are #2.
Everyone, for some reason, assumes Brad Lidge is a wreck, but if you look at his ‘07 season, it looks pretty damn good:
After Lidge, the Phillies have three solid pitchers in Tom Gordon,
Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero. The Phillies don’t have a bullpen as good
as, say, the Rockies, but it’s still above-average.
Losing Aaron Rowand was inconsequential. Victorino simply moves to
center field and right field will consist o####eoff Jenkins/Jayson
Werth platoon. Victorino is a huge improvement defensively, and the
right field platoon will more than make up for Rowand’s offense.
#14 Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee wasn’t himself last season and Alfonso Soriano had a
down year. But even still, the Cubs won the Central. It’s reasonable to
expect both Lee and Soriano to perform better. In that case, the Cubs
are once again viable in the Central. Staying healthy in spring,
especially 3B Aramis Ramirez, is key. As is finding a closer out of a
group that includes Kerry Wood.
Soriano had a down year? You can say that, but it’s really nit-picking.
Soriano 2006: .351 OBP/.560 SLG
Soriano 2007: .337 OBP/.560 SLG
Just a .014 drop in OBP. He did miss about 20 more games than he usually does, but he isn’t an injury concern.
Derrek Lee wasn’t himself?
Lee career: .367 OBP/.502 SLG
Lee 2007: .400 OBP/.513 SLG (567 AB)
Looks like he had a pretty good season, no?
Aramis Ramirez has had 500+ AB every season since 2000, when he was
still a young player looking for an everyday role. And I could find no
news about the Cubs third baseman having any injury difficulties.
The Cubs feature the NL’s best starting rotation — a 100+ ERA at
every slot. As for a closer, they have options, including Carlos
Marmol, who had an exceptional 2007 season. Seeing as how it was his
“breakout” season, it’s unreasonable to expect a 1.43 ERA in 69 innings
again, but he could be the Cubs’ answer at closer. Bob Howry is the
other candidate and he’s had four straight seasons with an ERA+ of at
least 140.
The Cubs will feature a slightly improved offense now that they
added Kosuke Fukudome, and will rival the Padres again for the league’s
best overall pitching staff. The Cubs are a close #4 behind the Mets, Phillies, and Rockies in the NL.
#15 Atlanta Braves
It’s hard to like any team with two starting pitchers in their
40s. But John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have proven they can pitch with
dignity, even in old age. But how long will that last? The offense
remains solid, but certainly didn’t get better by swapping Andruw Jones
for Mark Kotsay. And that says nothing about what the defense lost with
Jones moving to L.A.
People are going to be sorry for underrating the Braves. Losing
Andruw Jones isn’t a good thing, definitely, but given his poor
mechanics, there’s a higher than usual possibility that Jones’ ‘07
season wasn’t a fluke. If so, replacing Jones with Kotsay is much less
of a drop-off than it appears.
In ‘07, the Braves had the 3rd-best offense and 3rd-best pitching
staff in the National League. Does adding Tom Glavine, behind Tim
Hudson and John Smoltz, hurt them? I can’t think of a reason how. And
the Braves will still feature three offensive mainstays in their
line-up…
Johnson: 117 OPS+
C. Jones: 166
Diaz: 124
Catcher Brian McCann and right fielder Jeff Francoeur had average
seasons in ‘07, but if they learn how to draw a few more walks, they
could make the Braves’ offense explosive. Either way, it’s an offense
to be reckoned with, much like the Phillies’ and Mets’. It’s a
three-horse race in the National League East, and three of the NL’s top
five teams are from the East.
. . .
That’s the top-fifteen. There’s a lot of nit-picking to be done with
his bottom-fifteen, but we can all universally agree that the Marlins,
Royals, Pirates, Giants, Orioles, Twins, Cardinals, and White Sox will
be bad. The Nationals, Padres, Astros, Rangers, and Athletics have the
potential to be mediocre. And the Rays and Reds are mediocre teams that
have the potential to have breakout seasons.
And what you’ve all been waiting for: my top-fifteen power rankings:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Cleveland Indians
3. New York Mets
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Philadelphia Phillies
6. Detroit Tigers
7. Colorado Rockies
8. Atlanta Braves
9. Chicago Cubs
10. New York Yankees
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Seattle Mariners
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
14. San Diego Padres
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
As always, feel free to berate me in the comments.
Reasons why you would ever consider signing free agent third baseman Pedro Feliz:
You are a bottom-feeding organization like the Tampa Bay Rays or Kansas City Royals.
You have never looked at baseball statistics before.
You like your hitters reaching base in less than 30% of their plate appearances.
You are a vengeful GM and the fans have wronged you.
Feliz blackmailed you.
Yet, the Phillies, who have three third basemen (Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Eric Bruntlett) are close to signing Feliz to a two-year, $8.5 million deal:
An agreement is believed to be pending a physical, which
could happen sometime this week, though the Phillies would only confirm
that the sides are in discussions. The deal is reportedly for $8.5
million over two years with a team option for 2010 that could approach
$15 million, according to an Associated Press report.
Feliz has played seven full seasons of Major League Baseball, and in
none of them has he ever been close to the league average on-base
percentage (usually between .330 and .345). In fact, he’s only been
above .300 once in 2004 (.305).
Offensively, Feliz is a black hole. He ranked 31st on the San Francisco Giants in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) at -2.7.
So, we’ve established that Feliz is unattractive offensively and
attractive defensively. Depending on how much money the Phillies threw
at him, this signing could be one of those where you just shrug your
shoulders. Who knows, maybe Feliz will improve on his offense. After
all, he did play in the very pitcher-friendly A####mp;T Park, and
players, under the tutelage of manager/offensive guru Charlie Manuel
and hitting coach Milt Thompson, usually end up being more prone to
taking walks and set career highs in OBP. For instance:
Aaron Rowand: Career-high 32 walks before ’07’s total of 47 walk; career-high .361 OBP before ’07’s .374.
Rod Barajas: Career-high .306 OBP before ’07’s
.352. He was, however, helped by hitting mostly eighth in the line-up,
in front of the pitcher.
Jayson Werth: Career-high .338 OBP before ’07’s .404.
David Bell: Career-high .331 OBP before ’04’s .363.
Jason Michaels: .364 and .399 ‘04-05 OBP’s with the Phillies; .326 and .324 ‘06-07 OBP’s with the Indians.
Don’t forget that the Phillies have also had four of the best
on-base players in the game in Chase Utley (.410 OBP in ‘07), Ryan
Howard (.392), Pat Burrell (.400), and Bobby Abreu (.408 career OBP).
Feliz will likely fill in as the #7 hitter, ahead of the catcher
(Carlos Ruiz or Chris Coste) and the pitcher, so the impact of his lack
of offense will be dulled a bit. Either way, it’s a questionable
signing at best and rather unnecessary.
As an atheist, it’s almost second-nature for me to despise all
things religious. So, when I heard that Paul Byrd was coming out with a
book, that, as described by Sam Alipour of ESPN’s Page 2,
[…]details Byrd’s spiritual journey through the
major leagues and the pitfalls that pious jocks must leap in navigating
a ballplayer’s lifestyle.
…I thought, “Great, religious proselytizing in baseball — just what
we need.” But as I read through Alipour’s interview with Byrd, I
learned that is not what Byrd is aiming for at all. In fact, I was glad
to hear what Byrd had to say even though we approach the most essential
question to life in completely different ways.
When asked by Alipour about his motivations for writing the book,
Byrd explains that he’s not putting on a facade and writing a guide to
a perfect life. In his bare-bones honesty, Byrd says,
I think the last thing the Christian community needs
is another person who says they have it all together, a 12-step process
for being perfect. That doesn’t exist. I can help people by being
honest.
It is so odd — and so refreshing — to hear a religious person say
this. Too many times will theists tell you that if you just put your
faith in God and adhere to the Bible, everything will work out. As Penn and Teller proved, 12-step programs are a crock.
Byrd doesn’t let his belief in God get in the way of his progression as
a human being, as the overwhelming majority of theists do. Instead, he
uses his belief to supplement his progression. As an atheist, it’s all
too obvious to see that he could use Occam’s razor and eliminate a potential roadblock, but I’m happy enough as it is. If only more religious people could be like Byrd.
I struggle with porn one night, and somebody asks me
a question about Jesus the next day in the outfield, so you feel like a
hypocrite trying to share. It’s the elephant in the locker room.
Are Ted Haggard, Larry Craig, Mark Foley,
the thousands of guilty clergymen, and other members of U.S. government
(whom I’ve either failed to mention or whom have yet to be caught)
listening? Accountability.
Even if you put his religion aside, Byrd still makes some
interesting revelations about life as a Major Leaguer. He talks about
cheating in baseball…
People viewed [not using spit or K.Y. Jelly on, or
scuffing the baseball; not using steroids] as me being weak. Like,
“This guy doesn’t want to win.”
…and competition with teammates:
You’re like, “Man, I want my chance.” And the only
way you get your chance is if the other guy does bad. You have these
thoughts, like “Man, that’s not right. Why did that pop into my head?”
Byrd again shows how conscious he is of accountability when asked about covering infidelity by Alipour:
I don’t really cover it a whole lot. I’m married,
but I never really struggled with that, so for me to say, “Other people
struggle with this,” that would come across as me pointing the finger.
When asked is God is responsible for his success, Byrd shows that he is not in submission to his “creator.”
Here’s the thing, I think it’s a We. We’re both
involved in this thing. I didn’t create me, so I think for me to say I
can do something apart from him is pretty arrogant in my mind. But
then, for me to say, “Well, it’s not me, it’s all God. If I don’t work
hard, God will make sure all my pitches go where they’re supposed to
go,” I don’t feel like that’s correct either.
Byrd then drops what I feel is the quote of the year:
I think if Christ goes into second base to break up
a double play, he’ll do it cleanly, but he’ll try to knock the guy into
left field.
Picturing that mentally — Jesus in his usual robe garb,
slide-tackling the second baseman — makes me laugh harder than I did
after watching all three Rush Hour movies (okay, not that hard).
Coupled with the above, this is my serious-face quote-gem:
I’m passionate about the game and I’m not into using God as a scapegoat. People hide behind religion.
That’s worthy of a standing ovation.
Alipour asks Byrd about religious beliefs in the locker room, and Byrd shows his open-mindedness and tolerance yet again:
[Religion] can unify a team if you learn how to
respect each other. That’s one of the good things that religion and
Christianity brings out. Everybody isn’t going to have the same
beliefs, but the good teams learn to work together and respect each
other’s differences and backgrounds, to care about each other, care
about your brother.
After Byrd describes how memorizing Bible verses as a pre-game
ritual made him feel like he was using God, he addresses what I feel is
the #1 illustration of religious hypocrisy in sports — God-thanking.
Everyone praises Him when his team wins or he performs well
individually, but no one blames Him when his team loses, or when he
performs poorly individually. As Byrd says,
Do you see when guys point to the sky when they hit
a home run? It’s funny, I never see anyone point up when they strike
out. I’m not a sky-pointer. I’m more of a chest-grabber. I feel God
inside of me. People seem to give praise a lot more when they hit a
home run and not strike out. I give praise regardless of the outcome.
In a country full of religious hypocrites, Byrd stands out
emphatically both from an intellectual and practical standpoint. Even
though he irrationally and illogically believes in someone/something
whose existence has yielded no evidence and ultimately answers no
questions, Byrd otherwise is impressive with how he applies and shares
his beliefs.
Oftentimes, it’s best to just ignore athletes and other celebrities
when they dive into the world of politics (since most of them don’t
have any qualifications to be revered for their opinions other than
their social status), but this is one exception.
It’s just about time for the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) to turn
in their ballots for the yearly Major League Baseball awards. And it is
also the time for us bloggers to opine on how staggeringly dumb some of
these writers are by casting our own votes on the awards.
I make heavy use of Sabermetrics, and light to no use of “traditional” statistics like wins and losses, saves, batting average, and the like.
In addition, I intentionally do not take into account the player’s
team and whether or not they have been in contention. It is my belief
that a player’s contributions on a failing team are worth just as much,
if not more than another player’s contributions on a winning team. This
is a debate that always pops up around this time of year, so feel free
to try to change my mind on it.
The statistics I do use can be found on websites like Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and Baseball Reference,
among others. I will provide links to both the explanation of the
statistic and to the page(s) I pulled the information from. I am using
the statistics that are currently up on those websites as of September
20 at 10 AM EST, so it’s highly likely that the values will differ from
the ones I will list.
Without any further ado, let’s dole out the trophies.
Even using “traditional” statistics, this award is likely the
easiest for which to decide the winner. “Pay-Rod” is fourth in the
American League in on-base percentage (.416), first in slugging
percentage (.646), first in OPS (1.062), first in runs scored (134),
first in total bases (354), first in home runs (52), first in runs
batted in (142), and eighth in walks (86).
Congratulations, Mr. Rodriguez, you have easily earned the AL MVP
award in a year in which most expected you to fail, and still some
expect you to fail when the Yankees reach the post-season.
To non-Sabermetric-using baseball fans, my choice of Ramirez is
suspect. He does not lead the league in any “traditional” statistical
categories. He ranks 12th in the National League in on-base percentage
(.390), sixth in slugging percentage (.568), and eighth in OPS (.958).
However, he does rank second in the NL in runs (116) and hits (197),
third in total bases (336) and stolen bases (50), and fourth in doubles
(43) and extra-base hits (77).
Others have cited Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, and
Jimmy Rollins as the deserving winner of the NL MVP award. Let’s take a
look at some Sabermetrics.
Josh Beckett seems to be the favorite for this award, and I don’t
know why. Sure, he leads the Major Leagues in wins, but that statistic
tells you next to nothing. He’s got the fourth-best WHIP (1.129),
sixth-best ERA (3.20) and the eighth-best strikeouts total (180) in the
American League in 188.7 innings. Let’s have a look at Sabathia.
Sabathia has the sixth-best WHIP (1.145), seventh-best ERA (3.21),
and the fourth-best strikeouts total (198) in the American League in
227 innings (tops in the league) — nearly more than 38 innings more
than Beckett.
On the Sabermetric side of things, Sabathia is second in the Majors in VORP (63.4), behind only Jake Peavy. He has put up these great numbers while pitching in the most innings and despite an unluckily-high .317BABIP.
This award, like the AL MVP, is an easy one. Peavy leads the
National League in quite a few “traditional” statistical categories,
including ERA (2.39), WHIP (1.044), and strikeouts (225). He becomes
even more impressive with the use of Sabermetrics. He also ranks sixth
in innings pitched (203).
This one was tough to pick, as there wasn’t any really great
candidates in the American League. Dustin Pedroia was my #2 pick, but I
declined him because he’s simply a singles and doubles hitter with
average defense.
Another easy pick. He, by far, leads Major League rookies in VORP
(50.6) and, if not for Prince Fielder, is the Milwaukee Brewers’ MVP.
He has put up in 405 at-bats what 95% of Major Leaguers can’t do in 600
at-bats. 31 home runs, 85 runs batted in, a .370 on-base percentage, a
.637 slugging percentage, and a 1.007 OPS.
Let’s say Braun has the 548 at-bats A-Rod has (Braun played in his
first MLB game on May 25, missing about the first two months). His home
runs and runs batted in above translate to 42 and 115, respectively.
Braun’s defense is lacking — just a .565 RZR, easily last in the National League among qualified third basemen– but not even that makes the award’s recipient a tough call.
His team has the fourth-best record in the American League, and Eric
Wedge is deserving, too, but with what Torre has had to deal with
following his team’s dismal first two months (22-29, 13.5 GB in fourth
place in the AL East), he has done a remarkable job since (66-35, .653).
The starting pitching was falling apart. Mike Mussina might be done
after this season. Roger Clemens wasn’t what they expected him to be.
Kei Igawa bombed. Their best pitching prospect, Philip Hughes, got injured in the midst of a perfect game. None of their young pitchers did a good job filling in. They have used 28 different starting pitchers this season.
And there was the offense. Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu,
Jason Giambi, and Melky Cabrera all weren’t hitting for a while. Damon
didn’t appear to be able to play center field effectively anymore, so
Torre switched him to left field and moved Cabrera to center. Giambi
was injured from the end of May until the beginning of August, so
they’ve had to plug in Doug Mientkiewicz and Andy Phillips at first
base. Nobody on the bench has really contributed much.
Like Torre, Charlie Manuel has had a ton of injuries, a bad pitching staff, and media scrutiny to deal with all season long.
In this article,
I listed the 15 Phillies to be put on the disabled list at the time.
Since then, Cole Hamels missed time with a strained left elbow, and
Antonio Alfonseca was described by Manuel as “out of gas.”
Manuel has had to make do with a horrible bullpen that GM Pat
Gillick failed to improve during the off-season. In fact, the bullpen
was so lousy that Manuel moved then-starter Brett Myers to the set-up
role for Tom Gordon (Myers became the closer when Gordon was injured).
Myers’ statistics as a closer: 45.2 IP, 1.226 WHIP, 2.96 ERA, 56 K, 16 BB, 17 saves in 20 opportunities.
In addition, despite the injuries to 2005 Rookie of the Year and
2006 NL MVP Ryan Howard, 2007 MVP candidate Chase Utley, speedster
Shane Victorino, and a horrid first-half for Pat Burrell, the Phillies
have, by far, the National League’s best offense.
First in runs, triples, walks, hit batsmen, on-base percentage, and
slugging percentage. Second in at-bats, hits, doubles, home runs, and
stolen bases.
When the Phillies lost to the Mets on April 17, Charlie Manuel blew up at “journalist” Howard Eskin during the post-game press conference,
the team dropped to a 3-9 record, quickly 5.5 games behind the Mets for
fourth place in the NL East. Now, the Phillies are 12-games above .500
— an 18-game swing — and are battling for playoff berths in either the
NL East or in the Wild Card, as they are 2.5 GB the Mets and Padres,
respectively.
Honorable mention to Bud Black, but this award isn’t even close —
Manuel in a landslide. The Phillies should look to re-sign him at least
for another season to finish out Gillick’s tenure (that is, if Gillick
does come back for the 2008 season).
American League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award: J.J. Putz
His line: 66 IP, 0.667 WHIP, 72 K, 12 BB, 1.36 ERA
C: Russell Martin (.989, 84) 1B: Albert Pujols (.846, 49) 2B: Chase Utley (.876, 47) 3B: David Wright (.699, 78) SS: Troy Tulowitzki (.858, 82) OF: Andruw Jones (.924, 78) OF: Eric Byrnes (.918, 46) OF: Carlos Beltran (.910, 62) P: Roy Oswalt (1.000, 2.37)
American League Silver Slugger Awards
Format: Name (PMLVr)
C: Jorge Posada (.464) 1B: Carlos Pena (.263) 2B: Placido Polanco (.223) 3B: Alex Rodriguez (.427) SS: Carlos Guillen (.178) OF: Magglio Ordonez (.395) OF: Vladimir Guerrero (.273) OF: Curtis Granderson (.243) DH: David Ortiz (.376)
National League Silver Slugger Awards
C: Russell Martin (.244) 1B: Albert Pujols (.283) 2B: Chase Utley (.365) 3B: Chipper Jones (.426) SS: Hanley Ramirez (.394) OF: Matt Holliday (.332) OF: Barry Bonds (.365) OF: Adam Dunn (.259) P: Micah Owings (.245)
There you have it. Feel free to chime in with your picks, or tell me why I’m wrong.
The
Phillies have been run through the gauntlet and lived to tell about it.
Injury after injury, and bad luck that would make a professional poker
player weep (somewhere, Phil Hellmuth is weeping).
It wasn’t enough for the baseball gods to take our most valuable
position player from us. They had to take our most valuable pitcher
away from us now, as well.
Yes, Cole Hamels is the latest Phillies casualty, succumbing to a mild left elbow strain. According to the Phillies’ website, “A worst-case scenario has the young hurler missing up to three weeks.”
Without Hamels, the starting rotation includes a 44-year-old who
passed his prime during the Clinton administration (Jamie Moyer), a
right-hander with two months of Major League experience and an
extremely low strikeout rate (Kyle Kendrick), the dictionary definition
of average (Kyle Lohse), a right-hander that was passed over by three
other teams before he was picked out of the dumpster by the Phillies
(J.D. Durbin), and now, a question mark (?) should the Phillies feel
the need to move along with a five-man rotation.
Hamels will miss at least two starts because he’s
getting an MRI on his mild strained left medial elbow. According to
Hamels its at least that long due to the dye that will be injected and
he won’t be able to picth. Retro to Aug 17 means he can’t come off the
DL until Sept. 2. [SIC]
And, as much as ColeHamelsFacts declares otherwise, Cole cannot pitch equally as effective with his right hand.
At this point, they may as well give some of the Minor League talent a try.
J.A. Happ: Has pitched at least six innings in his
last five starts, and has allowed no more than three runs in those
starts (including two consecutive shutout appearances of six and
two-thirds and seven innings).
Carlos Carrasco: Threw a six-inning no-hitter
on Tuesday. He’s had a few shaky outings recently, but he’s the best
pitcher in the Phillies’ Minor League system and it might benefit both
parties to give him some Major League experience.
Zack Segovia: He’s pitched well for the most part
since the beginning of July. He’s pitched at least six innings in six
of his last eight outings, averaging an allowance of three runs in each
one.
Josh Outman: Pitched eight shutout innings on
Monday, allowing only four hits, but he did walk five. Prior to that
start, he had only pitched past the fifth inning once in his previous
four starts, and seems to struggle with control. Nevertheless, he is a
left-hander, and left-handers can always find a job at the Major League
level.
Other than that, the Phillies really don’t have many options available.
They could trade for garbage by scrounging the waiver wires, but it wouldn’t be worth it.
Brett Myers won’t be moved back into the rotation.
It’s just one more unfortunate situation the Phillies find
themselves in, and it couldn’t have happened to a more important player
on the Phillies’ roster. They will have to once again walk through the
muck and try to survive these next two weeks and hope that the return
of Chase Utley and Shane Victorino are adequate reinforcements.
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Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
The
Phillies have been run through the gauntlet and lived to tell about it.
Injury after injury, and bad luck that would make a professional poker
player weep (somewhere, Phil Hellmuth is weeping).
