I was planning to do a recap of every game but I realized that you
can basically get a recap on any major baseball website and I was just
burdening myself with unnecessary writing. I’ll just stick to the
analysis that I don’t see being done.
That said, posts may be cranked out at a slower rate for the time
being because I finally upgraded from Microsoft Office 2000 to 2007 and
now I can use Pitch F/X data in Excel. So, I’ll be trying to learn how
to correctly use and analyze that, and I’ll try to implement it into my
analysis when possible.
To anyone who does have expertise with Pitch F/X, I will be needing
any pointers I can get, so please drop some hints for me if you can (my
contact information is listed at the bottom of this page). I’m really interested in learning how to create graphs like the ones Mike Fast has in this article about Johnny Cueto’s first start. I’ve also read his tutorial on building a database
for Pitch F/X data, and while my mind went numb almost immediately, it
does sound like a cool idea, but I know very little about Perl and
MySQL, so that’s another call to any experts out there willing to lend
a few pointers.
But enough about me and my shortcomings (that’s your cue to offer a hug).
Kyle Lohse
Remember how I was whining about the Phillies preventing themselves from signing Kyle Lohse? Yeah, well, this happened:
April 1 vs. Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K
April 6 vs. Washington Nationals: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Total: 12 IP, 0 R, 7 H, 4 BB (0.917 WHIP), 5 K
Yeah… and the St. Louis Cardinals signed him for one year at $4.25
million. Granted, he did face a Rockies lineup that has been struggling
all season and a Nationals offense that isn’t expected to be much
better than last year’s MLB-worst, but he’s pitched 12 innings without
surrendering a single run. That’s impressive.
I will give credit where credit is due, however, and that’s to Adam
Eaton. On April 5 in Cincinnati, Eaton held a decent Reds offense to
three runs in 7 and two-thirds innings. He had nearly a 2-to-1
strikes-to-balls ratio, but he still managed to walk four. It’s an
encouraging start from a pitcher almost everyone, myself included, gave
up on a long time ago. If the Phillies can just get league-average
production from Eaton, it’s a huge burden lifted off of the bullpen.
Pat Burrell
If the Phillies’ front office is thinking about letting Burrell walk
when the season is over, they’re crazy. He’s started the season hitting
3 HR and driving in 9 runs in the first seven games, posting an OPS of
1.476.
On Monday night’s Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech said,
half-seriously, that people should be thinking about Burrell
potentially completing the Philadelphia-themed MVP trifecta, since most
people are predicting that if anyone is going to win it as a Phillie
this year, it will be Chase Utley.
Since the Baseball Writers Association of America doesn’t really
know how to factor in a player’s true defensive contributions, it is
actually a realistic thought to imagine Burrell being named the
National League MVP. Burrell is not at all fleet of foot, and as a
result, his defense is burdensome. If the BBWAA knew of any of the
metrics that display this fact in all its glory, there’s not a chance
in hell that Burrell wins the award outside of a 60 HR, 150 RBI season.
It will be a shame if Burrell is forced to sign elsewhere after the
season because he has indicated that he relishes playing in
Philadelphia, so he’d probably be willing to take a hometown discount.
If the Phillies do decide to lock him up for a few more years, they
know what they’ll be getting, as Burrell is as consistent as they come.
From 2005 to ‘07, his slugging percentage ranged from .502 to .504 and
his OBP ranged from .388 to .400; home runs from 29 to 32; doubles from
24 to 27, and all of this consistency comes while losing at-bats in ‘06
and ‘07 from Charlie Manuel taking him out after the sixth or seventh
inning in a lot of games.
For me, though, the most satisfying statistic of his from 2007 is his 114 walks in just 598 plate appearances.
Jayson Werth vs. Geoff Jenkins
So far, Charlie Manuel has used the right field platoon as intended:
Werth against left-handed starters, Jenkins against right-handers.
However, Werth only has five at-bats in the Phillies’ first seven
games. Granted, the Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter,
and that was on Opening Day (Matt Chico of the Nationals), but you
can’t just hold Werth for the lefty starter — you have to start him
against a right-hander every now and then as well.
Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and doesn’t appear to be getting any
better, unsurprisingly. He’s been above-average over his career (115
OPS+) but in ‘06 and ‘07, he was just league average (101 OPS+ in both
seasons). Definitely use Jenkins against right-handers only, but let
him sit out one every now and then in favor of Werth.
In 19 at-bats, Feliz has put up an uninspiring 22 OPS+ for the
Phillies. That is not a misprint; that is a real, live, correctly
calculated 22 OPS+. He has four hits — all of them singles — and one
walk. There’s just nothing to say here. I know it’s early in the
season, small sample sizes and all that good stuff, but… a 22 OPS+?
Come on.
What we didn’t see coming is that he’d be a bottom-feeder defensively. Baseball’s best-fielding third baseman has sunk to the 12th out of 16
qualified NL third-sackers in Revised Zone Rating. It won’t stay that
way forever, and I fully expect Feliz to climb his way back up, but it
just illustrates how little value Feliz has to the Phillies right now.
He’s worse than a black hole.
Myers suspects he may have tipping his pitches, a problem he licked early in his career — which doesn’t mean it can’t re-occur.
[…]
“There were a few pitches that I had to question whether I was
tipping or not,” said Myers, who added that he didn’t notice anything
after looking at the game video. “They had good approaches. I’m not
saying I was [tipping pitches]. I’m just saying they had good
approaches.”
From the dugout, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel saw a pitcher
whose fastball velocity appeared lower than normal. Myers normally
throws in the 92-95 mph range. On Sunday, he reached 92 once, and
mostly stayed in the 88-91-mph range.
Myers is way too important to the Phillies to have any extended
stretch of bad pitching. Let’s hope he figures it out when he starts
against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Three-Game Set at Shea
The Phillies begin a three-game series in Queens bright and early: a 1:10 EST start. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Tues. 4/8, 1:10 PM EST: Jamie Moyer vs. Oliver Perez
Wed. 4/9, 7:10 PM EST: Kyle Kendrick vs. Mike Pelfrey
Thurs. 4/10, 7:10 PM EST: Adam Eaton vs. John Maine
The first thing you should notice about the match-ups is that the Phillies get to miss Johan Santana, as expected.
Second, Adam Eaton starts a game at Shea Stadium, and that has boded well for him. His starts at Shea last season:
April 11: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K
June 6: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 4.2 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K
That last start aside, he was great in Queens last season. Over his
career, Eaton has a 2.81 ERA in the Mets’ home ballpark and just over a
1.0 WHIP in 32 innings.
Yeah, you read that right: the Phillies’ bullpen shined
in a victory over the Reds! Starter Kyle Kendrick looked pedestrian,
but was able to get out of some jams and limit the Reds to four runs.
Afterward, the Phillies’ bullpen pitched four scoreless innings,
allowing only one hit, no walks, and striking out three.
The
game was originally slated for a 7:10 start, but was delayed more than
an hour and a half due to rain (those of us in the Philly area were
treated to some videos reliving the 1980 season). Nevertheless, the
Phillies’ offense was on, as Chase Utley hit two home runs and drove in
three runs, and Pat Burrell hit a first-inning two-run homer as well.
Kendrick allowed eight hits — three of which were doubles — and
walked two in five innings. He did start the sixth inning, but walked
lead-off hitter Edwin Encarnacion.
The second-most surprising element of the game, after the Phillies’
great bullpen performance, was that Pedro Feliz drew a walk! Even
better is that he started the at-bat taking two strikes.
Ryan Howard isn’t looking particularly good so far this season, but
there are 158 more games to play. He’s yet to get an extra base hit.
Aside from that, it was a relatively easy victory for the Phils, and
it went almost according to plan. Manager Charlie Manuel would have
preferred if Kendrick could have notched six innings instead of five,
but Ryan Madson made up for it with two scoreless innings of relief.
Both Tom Gordon and Chad Durbin were unavailable. Gordon has pitched in
two out of the Phillies’ three prior games; Durbin had pitched in all
three.
Tomorrow afternoon, Adam Eaton faces Aaron Harang for a 1:10 meeting.
Well, Opening Day is a wrap, and once again, the bullpen is
responsible for the Phillies’ first loss of the season. You may recall
Ryan Madson blowing last year’s opener
by serving up a two-run home run to Edgar Renteria, then of the Atlanta
Braves. Today’s culprit is Tom Gordon, responsible for all five runs
the Washington Nationals scored in the top of the ninth inning.
A recap of the coup the Nationals staged against the ineffective right-hander and de facto closer:
Lastings Milledge legs out an infield single to shortstop.
Nick Johnson hits a one-out RBI double to deep center field and advances to third on the throw home.
Austin Kearns walks.
Johnson scores when Carlos Ruiz tries to catch him napping off of third base when Paul Lo Duca bluffs a squeeze bunt.
Lo Duca doubles to left-center, scoring Kearns.
Ronnie Belliard doubles to deep center, scoring Lo Duca.
Dmitri Young hits a two-out RBI double that bounces high off of the right field fence off of reliever Clay Condrey.
Brutal.
Starter Brett Myers wasn’t sharp, but nonetheless effective. He
pitched five innings, allowed five hits, walked two, allowed four runs
(three of which were earned), and only struck out two.
Ryan Madson relieved Myers in the sixth inning. With two outs,
Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman eked out an infield single to
shortstop, and Lastings Milledge followed by jacking a two-run home run
well over the left field fence.
The Phillies had opportunities but could only manage three runs in
the first six innings. Chase Utley hit a sacrifice fly in the first,
Pat Burrell hit an RBI single in the fourth, and Utley hit a solo homer
to right field in the sixth.
The Phightin Phils did mount a comeback in the seventh. Jayson Werth
led off with a walk. The gravy train appeared to be rolling when
catcher Carlos Ruiz yanked an RBI double to left-center and reigning NL
MVP Jimmy Rollins defended his honor by tying the game up with a
two-run homer that just barely cleared the fence around the 380-foot
sign, courtesy Nationals left-hander Ray King.
That was it though, as the Phils quickly went down 1-2-3 in both the bottom of the eighth and ninth innings.
As the final seconds ticked off of the fourth quarter clock and the
New York Giants earned victory in Super Bowl XLII, those of us who are
more inclined towards baseball breathed a sigh of relief and marked
another X on the calendar: A week and a half until P’s and C’s report;
three weeks until exhibition games begin; seven weeks until the regular
season begins.
The Phillies, for the most part, look like an improved team. Brad
Lidge was acquired from the Houston Astros; Shane Victorino moved to
center field following the departure of Aaron Rowand; Geoff Jenkins was
signed to platoon with Jayson Werth in right field; Pedro Feliz was
given red pinstripes as a hopeful answer to the team’s third base woes.
Meanwhile, the Phillies watched the Marlins pawn off their two
franchise players, the Nationals sign and trade for no one important,
the Braves lose Andruw Jones to free agency and trade Edgar Renteria to
Detroit and replace them with weaker players. Oh, and the Mets traded
for the best pitcher in baseball. The Johan Santana deal aside,
everyone in the division either got weaker or stayed essentially in the
same place.
Jimmy Rollins, almost a year after declaring the Phillies “the team
to beat” in the NL East (and being proven correct on the last day of
the regular season), claimed his team would win 100 games in 2008.
As I counted last August, the Phillies’ bullpen was responsible for at blowing at least 19 games
between April and the end of August. Remember, this is a bullpen that
featured — not just had; featured — Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey,
and Jose Mesa, among others, mostly due to the injuries to Closer #1
Tom Gordon, Closer #2 Brett Myers, and Ryan Madson.
Now, the Phillies feature a bona fide closer in Brad Lidge, a
now-serviceable set-up man in Tom Gordon, and a surprisingly deep
bullpen, now that Ryan Madson will once again be healthy, and the team
kept J.C. Romero, who was stunningly effective since he arrived in
Philadelphia in early June last season. The bullpen, barring injury,
doesn’t figure to be a problem for the Phillies in 2008.
As always, the Phillies feature one of baseball’s best offenses.
Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, and the pitchers aside, the Phillies
feature 20-25 HR potential at every position, and Ryan Howard, Pat
Burrell, and Chase Utley are three of baseball’s best at getting on
base. Obviously, scoring runs won’t be a problem for the Phillies,
either, but given that Pedro Feliz and his sub-.300 OBP will be playing
every day, expect a very slight regression in runs scored from ‘07.
However, preventing them appears to be a problem for the starting rotation once you get past Cole Hamels and Brett Myers.
Jamie Moyer is 45, put up a 5.01 ERA, and averaged his highest base
runners per inning rate since 2000. Age is less of a problem for a
pitcher of Moyer’s ilk, since he relies not on speed, but purely on
location and intellect. Either way, Moyer cannot be relied on anything
more than league-average production.
Kyle Kendrick put up an impressing rookie campaign for the Phillies
in which he revealed himself as a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park
and the Phillies. In 2007, more than 47% of Kendrick’s batted balls
were of the ground ball variety, and in CBP, where the gusting winds
push would-be fly ball outs halfway up the stands in left field,
throwing ground balls creates a huge advantage for their Phillies and
their now-great infield defense. Given Kendrick’s age and lack of MLB
experience though, we can’t reliably predict a repeat.
Adam Eaton. Not much needs to be said about him other than that the
sooner the Phillies get rid of him and his awful pitching, the better.
Eaton might be the worst pitcher the Phillies have allowed to pitch 150
innings or more since Brandon Duckworth in 2002. The non-progressives
in the Phillies’ front office likely don’t realize this and will try to
justify paying him $24.5 million over three years by letting him take
the mound once every five games.
Depending on how Kendrick pans out, and how quick the Phillies are
to pull Eaton from the starting rotation, expect about average
production from the Phillies’ rotation. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers
will obviously be well above league-average but it won’t be enough to
offset the lackluster performances from the others. If the Phillies can
sign Kyle Lohse and bump Eaton from the rotation before the season even
starts, that would be such a boon.
Defensively, the Phillies are easily above-average. Pedro Feliz is
baseball’s best glove at third base, Chase Utley is a top-two defensive
second baseman, Victorino is a gazelle with a cannon in center field,
and Carlos Ruiz is one of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Pat Burrell and Geoff Jenkins lack range but both have strong arms,
Jayson Werth has decent speed and a strong arm, and Jimmy Rollins
provides average to slightly above-average shortstop defense. The only
defensive curse on the Phillies is Ryan Howard at first base.
Overall, I expect the Phillies to have the National League’s best
offense and Major League Baseball’s third-best, behind the Yankees and
Tigers. Pitching-wise, overall, I expect a middle-of-the-pack
performance, perhaps 9th out of the 16 National League teams. The
starting rotation will rank about 10th or 11th and the bullpen will
rank about 4th or 5th.
My prediction (with the roster as it is presently)
Phillies 2008 RPG: 5.42 (878 runs).
Phillies 2008 RAPG: 4.61 (747 runs).
Phillies 2008 record: 91-71, second in NL East behind the 93-69 Mets.
Bonus: Cole Hamels finishes a very close #2 to Johan Santana in Cy Young voting.
The Phillies’ front office has stated that they are done making
major deals until spring training starts, though that doesn’t exclude a
signing of someone like Kyle Lohse or Kris Benson. The only thing left
to complete then is signing Ryan Howard to some kind of a deal, as
Howard is arbitration-eligible for the first time in his brief career.
The Phillies and their Ruthian first baseman exchanged figures
recently and were $3 million away from each other: the Phils offered
him $7 million; Howard wanted $10 million. Should this be settled by an
arbitrator, there’s little doubt the Phillies would win, as $10 million
for a first-time arbitration-eligible player is unprecedented (as a
comparison, Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million in his first year of
arbitration eligibility).
Before last season, however, Howard and the Phillies were at odds.
The author of the Phillies’ franchise single-season home run record
wanted a long-term deal. Instead, the Phillies gave him a one-year deal
worth $900,000. Howard was disappointed, though it tied the record,
held along with Albert Pujols, for the highest base salary for a
non-arbitration-eligible player. When the deal was completed, Howard
said:
It’s a little frustrating and a little disappointing
that we didn’t get it done, but that’s the business aspect. Now you use
it as a starting point. It’s over. Now you go out and play.
Should the Phillies give him a long-term deal now? They have control
of him until after the 2011 season and can go year-to-year with him in
arbitration until then. Let’s look at some possibilities.
The Phillies sign Howard to a large long-term deal worth $90 million over the next six seasons.
The Phillies now have control of Howard until after his age 33
season in 2013, when he would undoubtedly be in decline. For those six
years, the Phillies wouldn’t have to worry about drafting a first
baseman and would have an almost-definite above-average offense, since
they also have Chase Utley locked up until after the ‘13 season.
Adrian Cardenas, one of the Phillies’ top prospects, then becomes
valuable to the Phillies in two ways: they can try him out as a
potential third baseman (or perhaps an outfielder), or they can
continue grooming him as a second baseman and use him as trade bait,
since he’s road-blocked by Utley at his natural position.
By the time Howard’s contract is nearing its end, his annual salary
will likely look like a bargain, given inflation. This benefits the
Phillies two-fold: the relative cheapness gives them probable cap space
to add players and it increases Howard’s trade value.
As for ‘08, the Phillies will have little cap room to make another
signing (i.e. Lohse) or an in-season move unless it involved shedding
salary (perhaps that of Pat Burrell?).
The Phillies sign Howard to a back-loaded four-year, $65 million deal.
With this contract, Howard averages over $16 million per season, so
he’s definitely being fairly compensated when you compare it to what
he’d make in arbitration. Backloading the contract allows the Phillies
flexibility in the immediate future, so they can still sign a player
like Kyle Lohse to round out the starting rotation while still ensuring
themselves that the mainstay in their offense is happy about his tenure
in Philadelphia and doesn’t demand to be traded.
When Howard is reaching the end of this four-year deal and is
destined for free agency, the Phillies may want to consider trading
Howard and moving Chase Utley over to first base. This is feasible only
if Adrian Cardenas makes significant progress in the Minor Leagues,
another impact second baseman is drafted and climbs the ranks quickly,
or the Phillies sign another good second baseman.
Howard’s deal will run out two years before Utley’s, so that means
that unlike the hypothetical six-year deal, the Phillies won’t be left
with having to deal with the simultaneous contracts of their two best
players. The Phillies can deal Howard without fearing that their
offense will collapse and won't have enough talent to contend.
The Phillies go year-to-year with Ryan Howard until after the 2011 season.
This is a dangerous way to go, as it will all but guarantee that
Howard will not be wearing a Phillies uniform in 2012. However, the
Phillies would end up getting a bargain and paying market value for a
top-tier first baseman, allowing them the financial flexibility to
round out the roster and give them the best chance to make a run at the
World Series. The Phillies are, if nothing else, a team built for the
immediate future.
Towards 2011, the Phillies could shop Howard around similar to how
the Twins are shopping Johan Santana. Teams would likely overpay for a
top-five offensive juggernaut (assuming Howard averages a 130 or so
OPS+) both in terms of players given up and the amount of Howard’s
remaining contract taken. Then the Phillies could move Utley to first
or shop for another first baseman in the off-season.
So, what should the Phillies do? The Good Phight analyzed how players most similar to Howard performed in their same-age seasons and concluded:
On balance, I think this data suggests that Howard
is a solid bet to deliver very good to excellent production over at
least the next 4-5 seasons.
“Very good” and “excellent” are ambiguous, perhaps intentionally so.
Either way, I’ll take “very good to excellent production” with a
backloaded four-year, $65-ish million deal for Howard. After ‘11,
either deal him or if he’s still productive as his career wanes in his
mid-30’s, maybe he’ll want to sign another lighter contract for the
Phillies.
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
The
game was originally slated for a 7:10 start, but was delayed more than
an hour and a half due to rain (those of us in the Philly area were
treated to some videos reliving the 1980 season). Nevertheless, the
Phillies’ offense was on, as Chase Utley hit two home runs and drove in
three runs, and Pat Burrell hit a first-inning two-run homer as well.
