Buckner and Bartman are, unfortunately, victims of a predatory
industry. And as long as profits are the chief motivator for
businesses, this will never change.
For one thing, the two sides haven't spent 10 seconds
talking about a deal since the arbitration hearing. For another, Howard
and agent Casey Close continue to position him as an unprecedented
player, who therefore deserves an unprecedented contract.
It shouldn't be surprising that Howard is going to ask for so much
money. He's been a premier offensive threat in all of baseball since he
won the NL MVP in 2005. However, if Stark's description of Howard's
desires -- "an unprecented contract" -- are true, then it really is
time to start thinking about moving him. Not this year, and not next
year, but perhaps at the trading deadline in 2010.
The Phillies have control of Howard until after the 2011 season, so
they can choose to continue to go year-to-year with him and pay him
according to precedents. Even if the Phillies are forced to pay him
something like $18 million in 2010, this would still be reasonable as
opposed to locking up the slugger -- who will be 30 at the start of the
2010 season -- long-term for "unprecedented" big bucks.
Howard isn't truly an unprecedented player. He's a power-hitting
first baseman with below-average defense, a weight issue that will
always have a chance of recurring with a build like Howard's, and
inconsistent mechanics (compared to 2005 and '06, he didn't use left
field nearly as much in '07, for instance).
He does have great upside, but he's not some legendary player. He'll
hit 45+ HR and drive in 125+ easily, put up a 1.000-ish OPS year in and
year out, and draw about 70 unintentional walks every season. Players
that productive are not a dime a dozen, but also not productive enough
to warrant an "unprecedented contract."
The Phillies should let some other team burden themselves with such
a contract. Sell Howard while he's still valued high. Keep him through
his prime years (late 20's) and dispatch of him and his burdensome
salary demands immediately afterward. Without a stroke of genius and/or
luck, they will not replace his production but they can make some
creative moves (like moving Chase Utley to first base and calling up Adrian Cardenas to play second base).
Should the Phils trade Howard, they could ask for a king's ransom
and likely get it. I'm talking comparable to, or even better than what the Twins got for Johan Santana.
If the trade is done right, the Phillies can set up their Minor League
system for years to come while still keeping a highly competitive MLB
roster. However, the problem is that when it comes to trading star
players, the Phillies always botch it:
July 26, 2000: Curt Schilling is traded by the Philadelphia
Phillies to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa,
Travis Lee, and Vicente Padilla.
July 29, 2002: Scott Rolen is traded by the Philadelphia
Phillies with Doug Nickle and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for
Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith.
July 30, 2006: Bobby Abreu is traded by the Philadelphia
Phillies with Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J.
Henry, Carlos Monasterios, and Jesus Sanchez.
In the Schilling deal, the Phillies got 1.5 league-average seasons
from Daal, a half-season of slightly above league-average pitching from
Figueroa, and 2.5 below-average seasons from Lee. Padilla is the only
player in the deal that both stayed with the Phillies long enough to
make it worthwhile, and be productive as well.
With the Rolen trade, Smith pitched less than 95 innings in three
and a half seasons for the Phillies' Minor League teams, and never made
it to the Majors due to injuries. Timlin gave the Phils a half-season
of league-average relief pitching. Polanco, as we all know, was a
decent second and third baseman in his two and a half seasons in Philly.
The Abreu deal is clearly the biggest bust of all, but it was more
of a salary dump than anything. None of the players acquired are likely
to ever help the Phillies at the Major League level. Matt Smith had
reconstructive surgery on his left elbow last season and it's unlikely
he'll be able to help the Phillies out again. He did perform very well
for the Phils in '06 after he was traded, but he pitched a grand total
of four Major League innings in '07. Henry is a huge bust of a
prospect. He's never been above the A level, but his OPS has gone from
.714 in '05 to .692 in '06 all the way to .560 last season.
Monasterios, a pitcher, and Sanchez, a catcher, aren't regarded very
highly and neither are likely to make the Majors.
With Pat Gillick retiring from his position as GM of the Phillies at
the end of the season, it becomes crucial that a capable mind is hired.
The likely choice will be Ruben Amaro, Jr., who has been a typical
yes-man who tows the party line. He's currently the Assistant GM to
Gillick, handling Q & A with the media about acquisitions,
injuries, and the like. There's no doubt that the Phillies' ownership
highly prefers Amaro over everyone else.
Mike Arbuckle is the Phillies' Assistant General Manager, Scouting and Player Development,
and is #2 on the totem pole behind Amaro for the soon-to-be vacant GM
job. Like Amaro, he's never been one to dance to a different drumbeat
and he's been loyal to the organization. Frankly, since he has so much
experience evaluating players, he'd be more reliable than Amaro to make
a trade of Ryan Howard.
Looking outside the box for a moment, Brian Cashman's contract is up after the '08 season.
When Ed Wade was fired after the '05 season, Cashman was one of the
candidates the Phillies had on their list before they decided to go
with Gillick, and he is no stranger to a big trade -- remember Alfonso
Soriano being sent to the Texas Rangers for Alex Rodriguez?
While the Phillies' upper management may be coming to the
realization that Howard's days in Philly are numbered, they can still
thoroughly research Gillick's potential successors and successfully set
themselves up for a franchise-defining trade in 2010.
I’m usually reluctant to criticize anything Ken Rosenthal writes
because it’s usually well-researched and well-defended, unlike a lot of
what’s published in newspapers and magazines to be read by millions
countrywide. Mr. Rosenthal, however, has written an article
defending his selection of the Braves as 2008’s World Series selection
waving the red flag at the bull that is the Sabermetric community (not
to imply that said community thinks in lockstep).
He starts off his article waving a raw steak just outside the cage where it can’t be reached:
Bloggers, it’s your lucky day.
Not that you ever need prompting to rip apart the latest
ill-informed splattering from the mainstream media, but here’s an
invitation on a gold-engraved, all-but-autographed platter:
I feel like I really want to punch him*, but he’s begging for it so much that I don’t want to give him the satisfaction.
* I’m actually a pacifist and likely don’t have that great of a punch.
Embarrassing as it is to admit, my annual column predicting
which team will win the World Series often defies sabermetric
orthodoxy, not to mention conventional logic. Sort of like baseball
itself.
The way Rosenthal writes this, it’s like he’s proud of writing stuff
that defies logic. “I know conventional logic says that if you throw
something up in the air, gravity will bring it back down, but I think
that’s balderdash.”
Statistical analysis is an invaluable tool; that discussion
is over. But we’ve gotten to the point where everyone from the casual
fantasy player to the shrewdest GM wants to know the end of the story
before Chapter One is written.
Mercifully, that’s not how the game works.
Well, Ken, I don’t think anyone with a working knowledge of
Sabermetrics is using them like a crystal ball. Humans, sadly, have
this limitation where they can’t see into the future and put all their
money into Bear Stearns.
I often liken traditional statistics and Sabermetrics to different
prescriptions of your eye-enhancement of choice (well, are you a
glasses person or a contacts person?). Traditional statistics like
batting average, RBI, runs scored, won-lost records, saves, etc. all
provide a portion of the picture, but not a clear one. To make an
analogy to the analogy, traditional statistics are a television circa
1985 with the bunny-eared antenna. Sabermetrics provide a clearer
picture, like an HDTV circa 2008. It’s not perfect by any means, but
it’s the best we have right now and incredibly useful — they provide an
amazingly lifelike picture.
It seems almost as if Kenny is discrediting Sabermetrics for not
predicting the future correctly 100% of the time. That’s impossible,
for obvious reasons. But they come close relative to the other options
we have (guessing, rolling dice). After the 2007 regular season ended,
I made an Excel file comparing the results with PECOTA’s pre-season
projections and I found that the number of games between PECOTA and
reality was…
0 games: 2 teams, 6.7% (both Chicago teams, oddly enough)
I don’t know how well PECOTA fared in previous years, but its
performance in ‘07 is impressive: it foresaw the dreadful decline of
the White Sox, and the return to Earth of the Tigers, for instance.
So, Ken’s point that you can’t predict the future is valid, but it’s
not valid without crediting how much more accurate the predictions can
be with the use of Sabermetrics.
The 2005 White Sox, ‘06 Cardinals and ‘07 Rockies were among
the recent World Series clubs that defied the supposed experts, myself
included. Some other team will do the same this season, reminding us
again that baseball’s unpredictability is part of what makes the game
so much fun.
The paradoxy of saying that baseball is unpredictable and then
predicting that a team will defy predictions aside… saying that a team
will defy predictions to discredit those predictions doesn’t mean much.
It’s like using a fortune teller to place all your bets for a week of
NFL games, and you get the first 14 games right, and rake in a ton of
money. As you sit and watch the Monday Night game, your fortune teller
errs and the 49ers somehow beat the Patriots. Despite the fact that the
teller has selected 93% of the games correctly* you decide to dwell on
the one mistake and throw the baby out with the bath water.
* Obviously, that scenario is entirely facetious. Do not use fortune tellers to help you in your NFL get rich quick scheme.
Bloggers, man your keyboards!
My Spidey Sense is tingling, and I sense derisiveness from Mr. Rosenthal.
My choice to win it all is the Braves.
That’s absolutely fine. I await to see how you back it up with facts.
As the accompanying sidebar suggests, I’ve been largely unsuccessful with my pre-season selections over the years.
An ad hominem on yourself? Unprecedented!
But then, who hasn’t?
PECOTA and other Sabermetric-aided predictions.
The proper time to write a predictions column is actually
Aug. 1 or even Sept. 1, after teams adjust their rosters through trades.
There’s no “proper time” to make predictions. A prediction is
saying, “Based on the information available, I think that [insert
premonition].”
I think what Kenny was trying to get at is that your predictions can
be more accurate if you wait a long time to see how things unfold.
Thanks.
But such a late analysis would be a copout, and even then, there would be a decent chance of looking like an ####.
Amateur psychoanalysis here, but it seems like Rosenthal is preoccupied with “looking like an ####.”
In my NCAA bracket, I had Duke getting to the Elite Eight. I’m such
an #### for thinking that. But other than that, all four of my Final
Four teams were alive up until Wisconsin lost to Davidson a few minutes
ago. If you’re making a lot of predictions, you’re going to end up
getting some of them wrong, and you’re going to end up looking like an
#### on some picks. Bob Knight picked Pittsburgh to win it all, and
they lost in the second round. He looks like an #### but it doesn’t
discredit him from ever coaching again or making more predictions.
Grow a pair, Ken, make some predictions and tell us your reasoning
behind it. At least if you get it wrong, you can feel good about
getting it wrong. Why do I feel like my guidance counselor?
Few imagined last Sept. 1 that the Rockies would make the playoffs and the Mets would not.
Because people lack access to a time portal.
Anyway, here are my general rules for a preseason forecast,
knowing that Eliot Spitzer stands a greater chance of being president
in 2012 than I do of nailing one of these suckers outright:
Why? Because they’re good teams? Because they have high payrolls?
Why would you not pick these teams to succeed? I mean, if you are
scared about looking like an ####, it seems like you’d want to go with
the obvious picks.
Never pick a National League team unless under the influence of imagination-enhancing drugs.
Why? This isn’t the NBA — the National League isn’t the Eastern
Conference and the American League isn’t the Western Conference. The
best in the NL can compete with the best in the AL.
The Red Sox, winners of two of the last four World Series,
probably are the best team on paper. But picking them is like picking
the smartest kid in class to finish with the highest SAT.
It’s highly likely that your pick will end up correct, making you look like a genius instead of an ####?
Besides, the only way for a team to win back-to-back Series
is to keep its pitching intact through three postseason rounds for two
straight years. Hard to do.
It’s not the only way; it’s a way, albeit a highly good way.
According to this logic, last year’s Red Sox could swap Beckett,
Schilling, Matsuzaka, et. al. with Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon
Webb, etc. and not increase its chances of winning it all, since their
pitching staff is noticeably different.
The Yankees, who have not won the Series since 2000, almost could qualify as a surprise team at this point — almost.
It’s just my own subjective observations, but it seems like a lot in
the media are picking the Yankees to make the playoffs. Personally, I
have them missing out because I think they are depending too heavily on
unproven arms, but I would not be surprised if they won the AL East.
They have an offense that will match the heavily-lauded Tigers.
They are a surprise team in that they’re not currently better than
the Red Sox or either of the Indians and Tigers, leaving them second in
the Wild Card chase at best.
But now that they’re trying to incorporate younger, less
expensive players, the Yankees are like the rich kid in the
neighborhood who tries to act cool by dressing down. Sorry, the rich
kid is still a rich kid — and with dubious pitching, I might add.
These are two sentences that are ripe for amateur psychoanalysis, but I’ll restrain myself for now.
The analogy falls apart because the Yankees aren’t using young
pitchers to fit in with the crowd; they’re doing so out of necessity. A
better analogy would be the rich kid having all this stuff because his
parents own Bear Stearns and then having to find clothing at Goodwill
because of, well, you know.
Actually, the NL has produced three of the past seven World
Series champions — the ‘01 Diamondbacks, the ‘03 Marlins and the ‘06
Cardinals.Frankly, I’m sensing another NL breakthrough […]
That’s it! Write it down! Ken’s feelin’ it, and he’s feelin’ an NL
team winning it all! Dump your Bear Stearns stock and put it in KenRo
Inc.
[…] and not simply because two of the best pitchers in the
AL, Johan Santana and Dan Haren, were traded to NL clubs. None of the
AL contenders looks as dominant as the ‘07 Red Sox; I can’t quantify
it, but the disparity between the top teams in each league might not be
as great in years past.
The ‘08 Red Sox don’t look as dominant? I guess if you think losing
Curt Schilling for a half-season (potentially more) is damning. It’s a
loss, no doubt, but he’s 41 and not anywhere near as dominant as he
used to be. Call me crazy, but I think this year’s rotation of
Beckett/Matsuzaka/Lester/Buchholz/Wakefield will be nearly as good as
last year’s Beckett/Schilling/Matsuzaka/Wakefield/Tavarez-Lest er.
Some (not I) would argue that this year’s Tigers look dominant with
the addition of Miguel Cabrera. Some (not I) would also argue that this
year’s Mariners look dominant with the acquisition of Erik Bedard.
The Indians haven’t changed much and C.C. Sabathia is in a contract year.
The Braves have constructed an AL-type offense.
They have a DH? They are refusing to bunt with their pitchers?
Their bullpen will get a boost if lefty Mike Gonzalez returns from elbow-ligament transplant surgery at mid-season.
That’s great, but what are they going to do in the meantime?
Their rotation features enough options to absorb ineffectiveness and/or injury […]
John Smoltz will start the season on the disabled list and is
nearing age 41. Tom Glavine is 42 and his ‘07 season was about as bad
as his ‘03 season (his first with the Mets). Mike Hampton hasn’t
pitched in two years and is 35.
Really, the only sure thing is Tim Hudson.
I’m not saying the Braves will again trade for this year’s
Mark Teixeira, but they should be able to get the piece or pieces they
need.
How do you know what they’ll need? So far, you’ve said that they
won’t really need any starting pitching (”enough options”) or bullpen
arms (”boost from Mike Gonzalez”), and the Braves are set at catcher,
first base, second base, third base, center field, and right field. So,
barring catastrophic injuries, the Braves would be trading for a
shortstop or left fielder. Otherwise, they’re not really trading for
anyone of consequence.
Yet, the Braves aren’t the only legitimate NL threat.
Really? Who’da thunk it?
The Cubs could be a World Series team if they add Brian Roberts.
Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy
MacPhail told reporters in Ft. Lauderdale Wednesday that a Brian
Roberts deal with the Cubs is off the table.
“We worked at it this long and we don’t have deal,” MacPhail
said. “There’s other sides characterizing it as an impasse. You make
the judgment.”
The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if their run prevention reasonably complements their run production.
Translation: The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if they score more runs than their opponents.
These observations are reaching John Madden levels.
The Diamondbacks’ young position players should improve offensively, and the Dodgers are just too talented to ignore.
“Guys, who are you all picking to win the NL West?”
“D-backs.”
“Rockies.”
“D-Backs.”
“D-Backs.”
“Rockies.”
“Agh! I can’t take it anymore! The Dodgers! The Dodgers!” (Falls on floor, crying) “They’re too talented!”
Also under consideration: The Mets, who must contend with
age and injury concerns, and the defending champion Rockies, whose
rotation is a bit of a wild card.
The Rockies’ rotation was a wild card last season and they went to the World Series.
Mostly healthy last season, the Sox already are without Curt
Schilling and could start the season without Josh Beckett. Daisuke
Matsuzaka’s ‘07 load — he averaged more pitches per start than any
major-league pitcher — might be another warning sign.
Beckett is shooting for April 6. Unless you think the post-season hopes of the Red Sox will be made or broken by one game, this isn’t really a huge issue.
Will Hideki Okajima be as dominant a reliever this season?
He sure looked dominant last season.
Will Manny Delcarmen emerge as a legitimate late-inning weapon?
44 IP, 1.023 WHIP, 232 ERA+, 41 K, 17 BB in ‘07. Looks good to me.
All of the projections besides CHONE have him finishing the season with
a sub-4.00 ERA and all of them have him pitching 50+ innings.
It’s also difficult to imagine their top three relievers —
Joe Borowski, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez — being as good again.
“Ken, we think Borowski, Betancourt, and Perez are going to be good
in ‘08, but before we publish it, we wanted to check with you. Can you
see them being good?”
Ken: (Closes his eyes, grits his teeth, and tries to imagine what
‘08 will look like for those three) I see… Abraham Nunez hitting 20 HR,
and unicorns, and Adam Eaton winning the Cy Young. But I’m just not
seeing those three being nearly as good as they were in ‘07. Sorry,
guys.”
Borowski wasn’t good last season, by the way. It’s a great
illustration of why the save statistic is so flawed. He had 45 saves
last season, but he had a 5.07 ERA and a 1.431 WHIP in nearly 66
innings.
On the other hand, Rafael Betancourt has been dominant in each of the past five seasons. He had a 312 ERA+ last season.
Rafael Perez was almost as dominant as Betancourt last season, but
he’s only had one full season in the Majors and it is reasonable to
expect a decline from him.
A baseball season amounts to 162 episodes of 30 different reality shows.
Why is this comparison even necessary?
Those who think they can figure out the scripts in advance are kidding themselves.
I have a few friends who are very into Rock of Love 2. They have
predicted with amazing accuracy which girl is going to get the boot.
Why can they do this? They notice how they interact with Bret Michaels,
they pay attention to body language and the intricacies of the
conversations.*
Similarly, if you do your research, you can be accurate in your predictions.
* This will be the one and only time I will ever mention Rock of Love.
The stats reveal trend lines and tendencies, but in the end the game is played by human beings.
Played by human beings who create those trend lines and tendencies.
Despite the countdown at the top right of Crashburn Alley, the Major
League Baseball season officially started at 6 A.M. when the Oakland
Athletics and the Boston Red Sox duked it out in front of nearly 45,000
fans at the Tokyo Dome.
If you were sleeping or working and couldn’t catch the game, you
missed a doozy. Before I begin my recap of the game, I just have to
vent and say that I just have a strong disliking of ESPN’s
broadcasters. I’m sure some of it is irrational, but it was so annoying
to watch the game this morning because at the end of every inning that
Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched, Gary Thorne and Steve Phillips would comment
on how many pitches he’s thrown and that it’s unlikely that he’d be
back for another inning. This started in the third inning and Matsuzaka
went five.
Anyway, Mark Ellis started the scoring with a first inning solo home
run to left field, and Bobby Crosby, later in the inning, knocked Daric
Barton in with a grounder to pitcher Matsuzaka. Both pitchers looked
good, as it was 2-0 until the top of the sixth inning, when Joe Blanton
began to tire. Dustin Pedroia led off with a well-struck double to
right-center field, and Kevin Youkilis followed with a four-pitch walk.
Blanton got David Ortiz to a full count and forced him to foul out on
the sixth pitch, but Manny Ramirez backed him up by ripping a
first-pitch double to left field, scoring both runners. Later in the
inning, eventual hero Brandon Moss — a last-minute substitute for the
back-troubled J.D. Drew — singled to right field to score Ramirez,
bumping the score to 3-2.
In the bottom half of the sixth, right-hander Kyle Snyder relieved
Matsuzaka in a most unimpressive fashion. He allowed a lead-off single
to Bobby Crosby and a meatball two-run homerun to Jack Hannahan,
immediately blowing the lead the Red Sox were holding. To Snyder’s
credit, he cut the Athletics off there and quickly got three outs to
end the inning.
Fast-forward to the top of the ninth, where Athletics closer Huston
Street was attempting to nail down a 4-3 victory. He retired lead-off
hitter Mike Lowell, but Moss nailed Street’s fifth pitch of the at-bat
— down and inside — into the right field stands for a game-tying solo
home run. That wouldn’t be the end of Street’s night.
Athletics manager Bob Geren decided to leave Street in for the top
of the tenth inning. In retrospect, that wasn’t exactly a wise
decision, but it’s always easier to second guess when you know the
results. Street got Julio Lugo to ground out to third base, but it was
hit too deep and combined with his speed, he was safe at first. Pedroia
promptly bunted him over to put the go-ahead run in scoring position.
Street appeared to rebound by striking out Kevin Youkilis on a high
fastball, but after intentionally walking David Ortiz with first base
open, he had to get by Manny Ramirez, who already had a two-run double
to his credit. He’d make it two. On a 1-2 count, Ramirez drove a high
fastball to deep center field, and based on his reaction — he stood at
home plate admiring his hit for a good three seconds — he thought it
was a home run. Instead, it was a two-run double that brought the Red
Sox ahead 6-4.
Cue Jonathan Papelbon, celebrated dancer
and closer. Normally lights out, Papelbon was wild enough to allow this
game to continue to be captivating. He walked Daric Barton, who gave
him a tough at-bat. Jack Cust worked the count to 1-2, then chased a
high fastball to strike out for the fourth time in the game (he’s on
pace for 648!). Emil Brown, formerly of the K.C. Royals, had a chance
to be a hero, and turned into a goat with some extremely poor base
running. He took a first-pitch fastball — high, as had been Papelbon’s
style throughout his inning of work — and drove it to deep
right-center. Barton scored easily, but Brown got greedy and tried to
take third base on the throw in to home plate, but it was cut off and
he was forced into a run-down and easily tagged out after a couple
back-and-forth throws. Instead of it being a one-run deficit with a
runner in scoring position and one out, it was a one-run deficit with
no runners on base and two outs. To pour salt on Brown’s wound, both of
the hitters immediately following him — Bobby Crosby and Jack Hannahan
— both singled, so he would have definitely scored if he had been on
second base (of course, we’ll never know if either would have singled
had that been the case, but it’s fun to assume). The game was wrapped
up when Kurt Suzuki grounded out to first base, giving Papelbon a very
hard-fought save, and Hideki Okajima — the other Red Sox player from
Japan — the win.
If you had been up early enough to catch the game, it was well worth
it. I think Major League Baseball is starting a new trend: instead of
afternoon and evening baseball, we can have morning baseball; instead
of hot dogs, popcorn, and beer, we can have scrambled eggs, French
toast, and coffee with our game. I like it!
In other news…
John Patterson
In case you hadn’t heard, the Nationals released Patterson, author
of a 130 ERA+ and 1.195 WHIP in 2005. Since then, though, he’s been
ineffective and injury-prone. Still, you have to wonder why the
Phillies didn’t extend a helping hand his way. The team is in desperate
need of a #5 starter not named Adam Eaton, and none of the other
contenders are doing much to earn that spot. If Kris Benson, who is
more injury-prone and ineffective, is worth the flier, why not
Patterson?
I am left befuddled by some of the non-moves by the Phillies’ front
office. Apparently, Kyle Lohse isn’t good enough for them, but Kris
Benson, J.D. Durbin, and Travis Blackley are.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians have — and had — a few arms who could and should interest the Phillies.
First off, the Tribe released left-handed reliever Aaron Fultz,
a former Phillie. Fultz has been a great reliever in two out of his
last three years: in ‘05, he put up a 196 ERA+ and a 0.968 WHIP for the
Phils, and last season, he put up a 158 ERA and a 1.324 WHIP for the
Indians. Even in ‘06, bad by Fultz’s standards, was above
league-average: a 103 ERA+. The Phillies are in need of another
left-handed reliever to complement J.C. Romero, and Mike Zagurski may need “Tommy John” surgery.
The Indians released former Phillies reliever Aaron
Fultz yesterday, but don’t expect him land in Philadelphia. Ruben Amaro
said the team has no interest in bringing back the lefthander, who
pitched for the Phillies in 2005 and 2006.
Unless the Indians have a really good reason for cutting Fultz, the
Phillies ought to look long and hard at themselves if they pass up on
Fultz.
The Phillies are in the market for both a lefty
reliever (someone to go with J.C. Romero) and a starter. Looks like
rehab project Kris Benson may take the No. 5 spot since Adam Eaton has
been horrible, but the Phillies are concerned about their pitching and
Cole Hamels’s poor start.
Colorado pitcher Brian Fuentes remains a target of a few teams, the Tigers, Yankees, and Phillies in particular.
The Indians have an interesting scenario that could result in a
trade. Cliff Lee is taking the No. 5 job with a very good camp, but the
Tribe also has Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey in the hunt. There are
plenty of teams out there - including the Cardinals, Phillies, Astros -
eyeing the lefties.
That article is from more than a week ago, but it’s still relevant.
The Indians officially named Lee as their #5 starter, which makes
Sowers and Laffey available. Neither has been particularly impressive,
but both are around league-average, which is all the Phillies need.
Laffey pitched 49 and one-third innings last season, his only season of
Major League experience, and put up a 101 ERA+ and a 1.338 WHIP. Sowers
has two seasons of Major League experience, and he averages about a 95
ERA+ and a 1.349 WHIP. His ‘06 season was much more impressive than his
‘07 season, however, so he remains a bit of a question mark.
The article also mentions Brian Fuentes of the Colorado Rockies,
another left-hander, but he’s much more pricey, and the Phillies don’t
need to overpay for a second left-handed reliever. The price they’d pay
for Fuentes would be worth it if they desperately needed a set-up man
or closer, but they have four pitchers who can pitch in those roles
interchangeably: Brad Lidge (recovering from surgery and will start the
season on the DL), Tom Gordon (the team’s de facto closer in Lidge’s
absence), Ryan Madson, and Romero.
Questionably, Cafardo states that the Phillies are in the market for
a left-handed starter as well, but I can’t see that as being accurate.
The Phillies already have Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, both
left-handers, in the rotation. There’s no reason to need a third. If
you have three, great, you have three. You just don’t go hunting for a
#5 starter who is specifically left-handed — you take what you can get.
Options
Should the Phillies add one or more relievers from the outside, they
would risk losing Francisco Rosario (who is on the disabled list), J.D.
Durbin, Travis Blackley, and Clay Condrey because they are all out of
options and can’t be sent back to the Minor Leagues unless they clear
waivers, where the other 29 teams have a chance to claim them. Granted,
they are nothing special, but given the dearth of reliable arms in the
Phillies’ system, these guys are really the best they have.
We’re using three different projection systems. The
father of the sabermetric movement, Bill James, is represented as
published in “The Bill James Handbook.”
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections come courtesy of
BaseballThinkFactory.com, which consistently lives up to its name. ZiPS
looks at similar skills more than players in calculating projections.
Because I don’t want this piece to turn into a wall of numbers, let’s
focus primarily on OPS (on-base plus slugging pecentage).
We’ll work our way down the Phillies’ projected lineup, starting at the top with the reigning MVP.
Joey Gathright — Holy Smokes!
You have got to be kidding me. Joey Gathright has already jumped over a car, but in an actual game, he jumped over a pitcher attempting to tag him!
In my ever-increasing genius, I have the great idea of not only
making predictions, but recording them on a medium where others can
check back later and ridicule me. If you haven’t seen them yet, I put
my NCAA bracket up for public view here
(note: I did make a couple changes to it a couple hours before the
first game; I went 14-for-16 yesterday). Now I’m going to put up my
2008 MLB prognostications.
Let’s start with the awards.
Most Valuable Player
AL: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
A-Rod’s an easy pick.
NL: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Utley completes the MVP trifecta in Philly.
Cy Young
AL: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
His ERA+ has gone down every season since ‘05, but he did pitch 225
innings with a 1.24 WHIP last season. That 120 ERA+ is bad by his
standards, but great by others’. All of the projections expect some
degree of improvement.
NL: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
This is a sleeper pick of sorts, but he’s a legitimate contender for
the Cy Young award. He’ll give you 230+ innings, walk very few, and
strike out a lot (more than 8 K’s per 9 inning the last two seasons).
Johan Santana is the sexy pick and you can’t go wrong with him, either.
Rookie of the Year
AL: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
Too obvious not to follow the pack on this one.
NL: Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins
While the Marlins are odds-on favorites to finish 5th in the division, Maybin will be a rare bright spot.
Manager of the Year
AL: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays
I wanted to go with Eric Wedge of the Cleveland Indians, but
managers tend not to defend their titles here. Bobby Cox (’04 &
‘05) is the only manager to have done so since the award was created in
1983.
NL: Clint Hurdle, Colorado Rockies
The NL has a load of viable choices, but I think that leading the
Rockies to their first division title in franchise history will seal
the deal.
Comeback Player of the Year
AL: Kenny Rogers, Detroit Tigers
Kenny Rogers will successfully rebound from an injury-shortened ‘07
season to be one of the few Tigers pitchers who end up helping out
(along with Justin Verlander, obviously).
NL: Mike Hampton, Atlanta Braves
As long as he doesn’t completely blow up, average production should
earn him enough sympathy points (he hasn’t pitched since ‘05) to grab
the award.
Home Run Leaders
AL: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees, 51
NL: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies, 54
Most Overrated
AL: Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners
The trade from Baltimore not only gave Bedard a new home, but lots
of unnecessary praise as well. 2007 was really the only great season of
Bedard’s career, even though he’d started 24+ games in each season
since ‘04. His strikeout rate jumped from 7.9-ish from ‘04 to ‘06, to
nearly 11 last season. I call aberration.
NL: Aaron Rowand, San Francisco Giants
Recipient of a five-year, $60 million deal from the Giants, Rowand
goes into ‘08 with some high expectations. The fact is that he is only
a slightly better-than-average player. His ‘04 and ‘07 season are
similar in that they were both good (130 and 123 OPS+ respectively),
but his ‘05 and ‘06 seasons are also similar in that they were both bad
(93 and 86 OPS+ respectively). His defense is even overrated: he ranked 15th out of 17 qualified MLB CF in RZR last season).
Most Underrated
AL: Brian Bannister, Kansas City Royals
Granted, this is a tiny bit of a biased pick, since there was an article written by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports
that revealed his appreciation for Sabermetrics. But in 165 innings
last season, he allowed an average of only 1.2 baserunners per inning,
and averaged less than two-and-a-half walks per 9 innings. Add to that
his small allowance of home runs and you have a pitcher that a lot of
people will be overlooking simply because he plays on a down-and-out
team in Kansas City.
NL: Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies
Call it a homer pick, but I’ve been reading all off-season about his
mental issues that have stemmed from that home run he gave up to Albert
Pujols in Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS. To quote myself:
After that game against the Phillies on April 23
until the end of the season, Lidge pitched 60 and two-thirds innings,
struck out 81, and put up a 2.82 ERA. He finished the season with a 131
ERA+ and a 1.254 WHIP, impressive statistics for a closer deemed
mentally anguished.
He seems to have recovered fine from his second knee surgery of the off-season as well:
Lidge pitched in a minor league intrasquad game
Thursday at Clearwater, Fla., retiring four of the five batters he
faced with three strikeouts and a walk. The right-hander, who had
arthroscopic knee surgery last month, looked sharp enough that he just
might be available for the NL East champions on opening day.
“I felt great with everything from warming up to throwing in
the game,” Lidge said. “There is nothing better than facing hitters and
that was a lot of fun.”
Breakout Player
AL: Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles
With Bedard gone, Guthrie may be the de facto ace in the rotation.
He’s game for it. Last season, in more than 175 innings, he put up a
decent K-rate and a good walk rate, and allowed just over 1.2
baserunners per 9 innings.
NL: Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ethier has had a lot of hype, but hasn’t done anything spectacular
in his 843 Major League at-bats. This is the year for him, and he’ll be
a major player in bringing the Dodgers from a league-average offense to
a top-five offense (that’s right, you heard it here first).
Surprise Team
AL: Tampa Bay Rays
Too easy.
NL: Atlanta Braves
A lot of people are picking the Reds in a very winnable division,
but more people are overlooking the Atlanta Braves in favor of the Mets
and Phillies.
Disappointing Team
AL: Toronto Blue Jays
I have the Cy Young coming from the Jays, but otherwise, they’re
still going to disappoint. Mediocre offense and questionable pitching,
as a lot of those who had success last year were young and you just
can’t expect everyone to repeat. I expect a significant drop-off in
pitching (you heard it here first, and now you know why I don’t get
paid to make these predictions).
NL: Milwaukee Brewers
They will have an above-average offense, but that’s about it. Their
starting rotation is scary bad, and their bullpen is relatively the
same. Eric Gagne should be great for them so long as he stays healthy.
All right, let’s get to the Over/Unders.
Per Batter’s Box, here are the Vegas lines, followed by my predictions. A + next to my prediction means I’m taking the over, and a - means I’m taking the under.
Arizona 86.5 Atlanta 84.5 Baltimore 65.5 Boston 93.5 Chicago(NL) 87.5 Chicago(AL) 79.5 Cincinnati 79.5 Cleveland 88.5 Colorado 82.5 Detroit 93.5 Florida 68.5 Houston 72.5 Kansas City 71.5 Los Angeles(AL) 91.5 Los Angeles(NL) 87.5 Milwaukee 84.5 Minnesota 72.5 New York(NL) 93.5 New York(AL) 93.5 Oakland 73.5 Philadelphia 87.5 Pittsburgh 68.5 San Diego 84.5 San Francisco 71.5 Seattle 86.5 St Louis 78.5 Tampa Bay 73.5 Texas 74.5 Toronto 85.5 Washington 70.5
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