The Washington Nationals are now in Philadelphia following an
exciting Opening Day 3-2 win last night against the Atlanta Braves that
saw third baseman Ryan Zimmerman christen new Nationals Stadium with a
walk-off solo home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Odalis Perez
— who drew interest from a new teams including the Phillies — started
for the Nats and was stunningly effective: 5 innings, four hits, one
walk, and one run — a solo homer to Chipper Jones.
Lefty Matt Chico will start for the Nationals as Brett Myers takes
the hill for the Phillies in the Citizens Bank Park season opener. Keep
an eye on Nationals closer Chad Cordero. He was warming up to come in
for the ninth inning to try and nail down a 2-1 lead, but he never came
in, and was instead replaced by Jon Rauch, who blew the save. Cordero
has right shoulder tendinitis and it may prevent him from appearing in
any games against the Phillies.
Obviously, the Phillies’ 25-man roster is now set, and the only
surprises should be Tim Lahey and Wes Helms. Lahey was just acquired
and he has to stay on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Cubs,
as it goes with Rule-5 acquisitions. Helms somehow made it onto the
roster despite being a player having no purpose, quite literally. Most
(or maybe just me) thought that he’d be dealt before the end of spring
training. There were rumors, including a trade to San Francisco for
lefty reliever Steve Kline, but that deal fell through and Kline was
simply dropped by the Giants. With Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett on the
roster, Helms shouldn’t see a great deal of time — or any — at third
base. Nor should he see any time at first base with Ryan Howard there
and plenty of other players able to man the position at a higher level,
and it’s extremely unlikely they’d use him in a corner outfield spot
unless there are a rash of injuries.
I feel sorry for Helms despite all of the items I threw at my TV screen last year after many of his at-bats.
Some Publicity
Chris Illuminati of PhillyBurbs.com
and I corresponded on a piece they were doing called “The Must-Have
Book Guide” for the upcoming baseball season. I, of course, suggested
The Bill James Handbook. Check it out here if you’re interested.
Tim Malcom
of Phillies Nation organized a “Phloggers Roundtable” — a discussion of
the 2008 Phillies team by the bloggers that cover them. I was joined by
Tom Goyne of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff
as well. Unfortunately, there were a few who weren’t able to make it
but some did participate later on, including Enrico Campitelli of The 700 Level, Erik Grissom of Phillies Flow, and GM Carson of We Should be GM’s.
I’m usually reluctant to criticize anything Ken Rosenthal writes
because it’s usually well-researched and well-defended, unlike a lot of
what’s published in newspapers and magazines to be read by millions
countrywide. Mr. Rosenthal, however, has written an article
defending his selection of the Braves as 2008’s World Series selection
waving the red flag at the bull that is the Sabermetric community (not
to imply that said community thinks in lockstep).
He starts off his article waving a raw steak just outside the cage where it can’t be reached:
Bloggers, it’s your lucky day.
Not that you ever need prompting to rip apart the latest
ill-informed splattering from the mainstream media, but here’s an
invitation on a gold-engraved, all-but-autographed platter:
I feel like I really want to punch him*, but he’s begging for it so much that I don’t want to give him the satisfaction.
* I’m actually a pacifist and likely don’t have that great of a punch.
Embarrassing as it is to admit, my annual column predicting
which team will win the World Series often defies sabermetric
orthodoxy, not to mention conventional logic. Sort of like baseball
itself.
The way Rosenthal writes this, it’s like he’s proud of writing stuff
that defies logic. “I know conventional logic says that if you throw
something up in the air, gravity will bring it back down, but I think
that’s balderdash.”
Statistical analysis is an invaluable tool; that discussion
is over. But we’ve gotten to the point where everyone from the casual
fantasy player to the shrewdest GM wants to know the end of the story
before Chapter One is written.
Mercifully, that’s not how the game works.
Well, Ken, I don’t think anyone with a working knowledge of
Sabermetrics is using them like a crystal ball. Humans, sadly, have
this limitation where they can’t see into the future and put all their
money into Bear Stearns.
I often liken traditional statistics and Sabermetrics to different
prescriptions of your eye-enhancement of choice (well, are you a
glasses person or a contacts person?). Traditional statistics like
batting average, RBI, runs scored, won-lost records, saves, etc. all
provide a portion of the picture, but not a clear one. To make an
analogy to the analogy, traditional statistics are a television circa
1985 with the bunny-eared antenna. Sabermetrics provide a clearer
picture, like an HDTV circa 2008. It’s not perfect by any means, but
it’s the best we have right now and incredibly useful — they provide an
amazingly lifelike picture.
It seems almost as if Kenny is discrediting Sabermetrics for not
predicting the future correctly 100% of the time. That’s impossible,
for obvious reasons. But they come close relative to the other options
we have (guessing, rolling dice). After the 2007 regular season ended,
I made an Excel file comparing the results with PECOTA’s pre-season
projections and I found that the number of games between PECOTA and
reality was…
0 games: 2 teams, 6.7% (both Chicago teams, oddly enough)
I don’t know how well PECOTA fared in previous years, but its
performance in ‘07 is impressive: it foresaw the dreadful decline of
the White Sox, and the return to Earth of the Tigers, for instance.
So, Ken’s point that you can’t predict the future is valid, but it’s
not valid without crediting how much more accurate the predictions can
be with the use of Sabermetrics.
The 2005 White Sox, ‘06 Cardinals and ‘07 Rockies were among
the recent World Series clubs that defied the supposed experts, myself
included. Some other team will do the same this season, reminding us
again that baseball’s unpredictability is part of what makes the game
so much fun.
The paradoxy of saying that baseball is unpredictable and then
predicting that a team will defy predictions aside… saying that a team
will defy predictions to discredit those predictions doesn’t mean much.
It’s like using a fortune teller to place all your bets for a week of
NFL games, and you get the first 14 games right, and rake in a ton of
money. As you sit and watch the Monday Night game, your fortune teller
errs and the 49ers somehow beat the Patriots. Despite the fact that the
teller has selected 93% of the games correctly* you decide to dwell on
the one mistake and throw the baby out with the bath water.
* Obviously, that scenario is entirely facetious. Do not use fortune tellers to help you in your NFL get rich quick scheme.
Bloggers, man your keyboards!
My Spidey Sense is tingling, and I sense derisiveness from Mr. Rosenthal.
My choice to win it all is the Braves.
That’s absolutely fine. I await to see how you back it up with facts.
As the accompanying sidebar suggests, I’ve been largely unsuccessful with my pre-season selections over the years.
An ad hominem on yourself? Unprecedented!
But then, who hasn’t?
PECOTA and other Sabermetric-aided predictions.
The proper time to write a predictions column is actually
Aug. 1 or even Sept. 1, after teams adjust their rosters through trades.
There’s no “proper time” to make predictions. A prediction is
saying, “Based on the information available, I think that [insert
premonition].”
I think what Kenny was trying to get at is that your predictions can
be more accurate if you wait a long time to see how things unfold.
Thanks.
But such a late analysis would be a copout, and even then, there would be a decent chance of looking like an ####.
Amateur psychoanalysis here, but it seems like Rosenthal is preoccupied with “looking like an ####.”
In my NCAA bracket, I had Duke getting to the Elite Eight. I’m such
an #### for thinking that. But other than that, all four of my Final
Four teams were alive up until Wisconsin lost to Davidson a few minutes
ago. If you’re making a lot of predictions, you’re going to end up
getting some of them wrong, and you’re going to end up looking like an
#### on some picks. Bob Knight picked Pittsburgh to win it all, and
they lost in the second round. He looks like an #### but it doesn’t
discredit him from ever coaching again or making more predictions.
Grow a pair, Ken, make some predictions and tell us your reasoning
behind it. At least if you get it wrong, you can feel good about
getting it wrong. Why do I feel like my guidance counselor?
Few imagined last Sept. 1 that the Rockies would make the playoffs and the Mets would not.
Because people lack access to a time portal.
Anyway, here are my general rules for a preseason forecast,
knowing that Eliot Spitzer stands a greater chance of being president
in 2012 than I do of nailing one of these suckers outright:
Why? Because they’re good teams? Because they have high payrolls?
Why would you not pick these teams to succeed? I mean, if you are
scared about looking like an ####, it seems like you’d want to go with
the obvious picks.
Never pick a National League team unless under the influence of imagination-enhancing drugs.
Why? This isn’t the NBA — the National League isn’t the Eastern
Conference and the American League isn’t the Western Conference. The
best in the NL can compete with the best in the AL.
The Red Sox, winners of two of the last four World Series,
probably are the best team on paper. But picking them is like picking
the smartest kid in class to finish with the highest SAT.
It’s highly likely that your pick will end up correct, making you look like a genius instead of an ####?
Besides, the only way for a team to win back-to-back Series
is to keep its pitching intact through three postseason rounds for two
straight years. Hard to do.
It’s not the only way; it’s a way, albeit a highly good way.
According to this logic, last year’s Red Sox could swap Beckett,
Schilling, Matsuzaka, et. al. with Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon
Webb, etc. and not increase its chances of winning it all, since their
pitching staff is noticeably different.
The Yankees, who have not won the Series since 2000, almost could qualify as a surprise team at this point — almost.
It’s just my own subjective observations, but it seems like a lot in
the media are picking the Yankees to make the playoffs. Personally, I
have them missing out because I think they are depending too heavily on
unproven arms, but I would not be surprised if they won the AL East.
They have an offense that will match the heavily-lauded Tigers.
They are a surprise team in that they’re not currently better than
the Red Sox or either of the Indians and Tigers, leaving them second in
the Wild Card chase at best.
But now that they’re trying to incorporate younger, less
expensive players, the Yankees are like the rich kid in the
neighborhood who tries to act cool by dressing down. Sorry, the rich
kid is still a rich kid — and with dubious pitching, I might add.
These are two sentences that are ripe for amateur psychoanalysis, but I’ll restrain myself for now.
The analogy falls apart because the Yankees aren’t using young
pitchers to fit in with the crowd; they’re doing so out of necessity. A
better analogy would be the rich kid having all this stuff because his
parents own Bear Stearns and then having to find clothing at Goodwill
because of, well, you know.
Actually, the NL has produced three of the past seven World
Series champions — the ‘01 Diamondbacks, the ‘03 Marlins and the ‘06
Cardinals.Frankly, I’m sensing another NL breakthrough […]
That’s it! Write it down! Ken’s feelin’ it, and he’s feelin’ an NL
team winning it all! Dump your Bear Stearns stock and put it in KenRo
Inc.
[…] and not simply because two of the best pitchers in the
AL, Johan Santana and Dan Haren, were traded to NL clubs. None of the
AL contenders looks as dominant as the ‘07 Red Sox; I can’t quantify
it, but the disparity between the top teams in each league might not be
as great in years past.
The ‘08 Red Sox don’t look as dominant? I guess if you think losing
Curt Schilling for a half-season (potentially more) is damning. It’s a
loss, no doubt, but he’s 41 and not anywhere near as dominant as he
used to be. Call me crazy, but I think this year’s rotation of
Beckett/Matsuzaka/Lester/Buchholz/Wakefield will be nearly as good as
last year’s Beckett/Schilling/Matsuzaka/Wakefield/Tavarez-Lest er.
Some (not I) would argue that this year’s Tigers look dominant with
the addition of Miguel Cabrera. Some (not I) would also argue that this
year’s Mariners look dominant with the acquisition of Erik Bedard.
The Indians haven’t changed much and C.C. Sabathia is in a contract year.
The Braves have constructed an AL-type offense.
They have a DH? They are refusing to bunt with their pitchers?
Their bullpen will get a boost if lefty Mike Gonzalez returns from elbow-ligament transplant surgery at mid-season.
That’s great, but what are they going to do in the meantime?
Their rotation features enough options to absorb ineffectiveness and/or injury […]
John Smoltz will start the season on the disabled list and is
nearing age 41. Tom Glavine is 42 and his ‘07 season was about as bad
as his ‘03 season (his first with the Mets). Mike Hampton hasn’t
pitched in two years and is 35.
Really, the only sure thing is Tim Hudson.
I’m not saying the Braves will again trade for this year’s
Mark Teixeira, but they should be able to get the piece or pieces they
need.
How do you know what they’ll need? So far, you’ve said that they
won’t really need any starting pitching (”enough options”) or bullpen
arms (”boost from Mike Gonzalez”), and the Braves are set at catcher,
first base, second base, third base, center field, and right field. So,
barring catastrophic injuries, the Braves would be trading for a
shortstop or left fielder. Otherwise, they’re not really trading for
anyone of consequence.
Yet, the Braves aren’t the only legitimate NL threat.
Really? Who’da thunk it?
The Cubs could be a World Series team if they add Brian Roberts.
Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy
MacPhail told reporters in Ft. Lauderdale Wednesday that a Brian
Roberts deal with the Cubs is off the table.
“We worked at it this long and we don’t have deal,” MacPhail
said. “There’s other sides characterizing it as an impasse. You make
the judgment.”
The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if their run prevention reasonably complements their run production.
Translation: The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if they score more runs than their opponents.
These observations are reaching John Madden levels.
The Diamondbacks’ young position players should improve offensively, and the Dodgers are just too talented to ignore.
“Guys, who are you all picking to win the NL West?”
“D-backs.”
“Rockies.”
“D-Backs.”
“D-Backs.”
“Rockies.”
“Agh! I can’t take it anymore! The Dodgers! The Dodgers!” (Falls on floor, crying) “They’re too talented!”
Also under consideration: The Mets, who must contend with
age and injury concerns, and the defending champion Rockies, whose
rotation is a bit of a wild card.
The Rockies’ rotation was a wild card last season and they went to the World Series.
Mostly healthy last season, the Sox already are without Curt
Schilling and could start the season without Josh Beckett. Daisuke
Matsuzaka’s ‘07 load — he averaged more pitches per start than any
major-league pitcher — might be another warning sign.
Beckett is shooting for April 6. Unless you think the post-season hopes of the Red Sox will be made or broken by one game, this isn’t really a huge issue.
Will Hideki Okajima be as dominant a reliever this season?
He sure looked dominant last season.
Will Manny Delcarmen emerge as a legitimate late-inning weapon?
44 IP, 1.023 WHIP, 232 ERA+, 41 K, 17 BB in ‘07. Looks good to me.
All of the projections besides CHONE have him finishing the season with
a sub-4.00 ERA and all of them have him pitching 50+ innings.
It’s also difficult to imagine their top three relievers —
Joe Borowski, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez — being as good again.
“Ken, we think Borowski, Betancourt, and Perez are going to be good
in ‘08, but before we publish it, we wanted to check with you. Can you
see them being good?”
Ken: (Closes his eyes, grits his teeth, and tries to imagine what
‘08 will look like for those three) I see… Abraham Nunez hitting 20 HR,
and unicorns, and Adam Eaton winning the Cy Young. But I’m just not
seeing those three being nearly as good as they were in ‘07. Sorry,
guys.”
Borowski wasn’t good last season, by the way. It’s a great
illustration of why the save statistic is so flawed. He had 45 saves
last season, but he had a 5.07 ERA and a 1.431 WHIP in nearly 66
innings.
On the other hand, Rafael Betancourt has been dominant in each of the past five seasons. He had a 312 ERA+ last season.
Rafael Perez was almost as dominant as Betancourt last season, but
he’s only had one full season in the Majors and it is reasonable to
expect a decline from him.
A baseball season amounts to 162 episodes of 30 different reality shows.
Why is this comparison even necessary?
Those who think they can figure out the scripts in advance are kidding themselves.
I have a few friends who are very into Rock of Love 2. They have
predicted with amazing accuracy which girl is going to get the boot.
Why can they do this? They notice how they interact with Bret Michaels,
they pay attention to body language and the intricacies of the
conversations.*
Similarly, if you do your research, you can be accurate in your predictions.
* This will be the one and only time I will ever mention Rock of Love.
The stats reveal trend lines and tendencies, but in the end the game is played by human beings.
Played by human beings who create those trend lines and tendencies.
Ah, power rankings. Nowhere are they more meaningless than in
baseball. But Aram Tolegian, whom I’ve never heard of until just now,
released “the first batch” of MLB power rankings for FOX Sports.
It is a perfect storm: I have a lot of time on my hands, and this
guy used tons of flawed logic. This day is going to go pretty fast.
#1 Detroit Tigers
No team had a better off-season, and for that reason the Tigers occupy the top spot.
The Tigers definitely had the best off-season. They ranked 9th out
of 14 AL teams in runs allowed per game, and 2nd of 14 in runs scored
per game. So what do they do? They go out and acquire Miguel Cabrera
and Dontrelle Willis in a trade. They failed to improve their pitching
staff, and they have overkill offensively. I wouldn’t say they had the
best off-season. In fact, when you look at it objectively, they had a
rather poor one. They had pitching problems at both ends going into the
offseason, and they only addressed it by acquiring Willis, who can’t be
relied upon for anything, as his ‘07 campaign isn’t much of an
aberration when you look at his statistics (everything is close to his
career norm).
And the Boston Red Sox, the defending World Series champions, and
the team that didn’t take a step back in anyway except in losing Curt
Schilling to injury, should be #1.
#2 Cleveland Indians
No argument here.
#3 Boston Red Sox
The rotation doesn’t look overly strong and the offense
certainly doesn’t project better than those owned by the Indians,
Tigers or Yankees.
No argument about the Indians’ rotation. However…
Red Sox
Player: ‘07 ERA+
Beckett: 145
Matsuzaka: 108
Wakefield: 100
Lester: 104
Buchholz: 298 (only 4 starts, one of which was a no-hitter)
Tigers
Verlander: 125
Rogers: 103
Robertson: 96
Bonderman: 91
Willis: 83
Yankees
Pettitte: 110
Wang: 121
Mussina: 87
Hughes: 100
Chamberlain: 1192 (only 24 IP, all as a reliever)
The starting rotation of the Red Sox is clearly the most dominant,
with the Yankees’ trailing and the Tigers’ clearly lagging far behind.
#4 Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks may have arrived a year early last season, but
that’s what often happens when there’s a boatload of endless upside on
the roster.
No, that’s what happens when you out-perform your Pythagorean W-L by
11 games. The D-Backs allowed 732 runs and scored only 712. The
Diamondbacks had one of the worst RS/RA margins of teams that made the
playoffs. Adding Dan Haren will offset the crash to Earth that the
Diamondbacks will face, but they’re not some powerhouse simply because
they had very favorable run distribution last season.
Of their eight regulars, only four had an OPS+ over 100, and all of them were just barely:
Jackson: 110
Hudson: 106
Reynolds: 110
Byrnes: 104
The D-Backs ranked dead last in the NL in OBP and 9th of 16 in SLG.
And who’d they add in the off-season to help provide more offense?
Chris Burke?
Please consider that last year’s success was done primarily
without Randy Johnson and with Dan Haren still in Oakland. Both will
start the season as part of the rotation, which means the D-backs take
another big step forward.
Randy Johnson needs to stay healthy. At age 44, how realistic is this expectation?
#5 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Fans had the entire off-season to project how big the Angels’
winning margin in the AL West would be. But all of that changed when
the Mariners traded for Erik Bedard. Now things may not be so easy in
the West. The Angels still deserve the nod simply because this is a
team with very few holes and a solid mix of veterans and youth with
upside.
Ugh, so many generalities. But he’s correct in saying that the
Angels are the top team in the AL West. As we’ll find out, the Mariners
are being overrated.
#6 New York Yankees
The organization is doing the right thing by building from
within now that the strategy of being the league’s most active
off-season team has proven futile. For a team that’s supposedly in
transition, this season won’t be too painful.
There’s a reference to the youth on the Yankees, but no mention of
how that will affect them. And there’s no reference to their shaky
starting rotation. Chien-Ming Wang has an extremely low K-rate, and
pitchers with low K-rates don’t have the same sustained success that
those with high K-rates do.
What of Mike Mussina? Should he have just retired? 2007 was the
worst season of his 17-year career. Excluding his first season in ‘91,
he set career lows in IP and strikeouts, and career highs in ERA and
WHIP. And he’s 39.
Andy Pettitte is always reliable for decent production, but two straight seasons with a 1.4 WHIP is concerning.
Phil Hughes showed flashes of brilliance, but he’s only 21.
Similarly, Joba Chamberlain is 22 and has never made a Major League
start.
The Yankees will have a great offense as they always do, but their
starting rotation will make or break them, as it does so many other
teams.
#7 Los Angeles Dodgers
There are also several position battles in key places, like
third base where Nomar Garciaparra may not have enough left in the tank
to fend off prospect Andy LaRoche. Another battle to watch is in the
outfield where the Dodgers have Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp
vying for the two spots flanking Andruw Jones. And what about Jason
Schmidt? There have been no setbacks in his return from shoulder
surgery, but fans should keep their fingers crossed nonetheless.
Nothing here justified the Dodgers at #7. They have a
middle-of-the-road offense and after Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, their
starting rotation falters. Of course, they have that great bullpen to
fall back on, but it’s not even close to enough to justify them at #7.
#8 New York Mets
Trading for Johan Santana has energized the organization heading into spring.
He has the Diamondbacks (#4) and Dodgers (#7) ahead of the Mets, who
appear to be solid on all fronts. The Mets had the NL’s fourth-best
offense and 7th-best pitching staff, and before Santana, they had
stayed relatively idle. Adding Santana gives them a top-tier pitching
staff, and combine that with their top-tier offense, the Mets should be
higher than #8 and #3 in the NL.
#9 Toronto Blue Jays
I’ll give you a minute to stop laughing before I quote him on why he put the Jays at #9.
Ready?
If you view the glass as half full in Toronto, you’ve got a team
with a solid rotation, a major defensive improvement at third in Scott
Rolen and a burgeoning superstar in OF Alex Rios.
2007 Troy Glaus Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP; accounts for both offense and defense): 5.8
2007 Scott Rolen WARP: 5.6
It’s a break-even change at best. Given Rolen’s back problems, playing on the Toronto turf isn’t going to help him any.
Let’s see… the Jays’ offense ranked 10th out of 14 teams, and their
pitching staff ranked a distant second to the Red Sox. Yes, their
starting rotation is relatively solid, but Dustin McGowan, Shaun
Marcum, and Jesse Litsch are all in their mid-20’s and not one of them
had sustained Major League success before 2007, so it’s hard to expect
similar production from them in 2008. It’s fair to expect a regression.
Even in their bullpen, they featured guys having unexpected success.
Jeremy Accardo, Casey Janssen, and Scott Downs never had anything close
to the kind of success they had last season.
#9 is too high for the Jays.
#10 Colorado Rockies
The old style of thinking that pitching will ultimately do in
the Rox has to be discarded. Although it would have been nice to see
the team upgrade its rotation this off-season.
When you adjust for park effects (obviously, pitching in Coors Field
deflates your pitching statistics, and all of their starters had 4.00+
ERA’s), the Rockies had a decent rotation. Among those who pitched 100+
innings…
Francis: 114 ERA+
Fogg: 97
Cook: 116
Hirsh: 100
In addition, the Rockies’ bullpen was superb. Even in Coors Field,
the Rockies’ bullpen featured six guys who pitched 45+ innings and kept
their ERA under 4.00:
Fuentes: 3.08 ERA (155 ERA+)
Corpas: 2.08 ERA (231 ERA+)
Affeldt: 3.51 ERA (137 ERA+)
Hawkins: 3.42 ERA (140 ERA+)
Julio: 3.93 ERA (122 ERA+)
Herges: 2.96 ERA (162 ERA+)
Of those six, only Affeldt and Julio departed. Their bullpen will be
strong again in ‘08. The Rockies should be top-three in the NL, along
with the Mets and Phillies.
#11 Seattle Mariners
The addition of Erik Bedard cannot be understated as the M’s may own the best one-two punch in the West.
There are only three other teams to compete with… but even then,
I’ll take John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar (or Jered Weaver since Escobar
will miss the first month of the regular season) over Bedard and Felix
Hernandez.
Lackey/Escobar/Weaver ERA+: 151/134/117
Bedard/Hernandez ERA+: 146/110
Bedard helps a middling Mariners pitching staff, but he won’t be
enough to save Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva from
mediocrity.
Additionally, J.J. Putz aside, the Mariners’ great ‘07 bullpen
featured a bunch of young guys having phenomenal seasons (like the Blue
Jays), and we can’t reasonably expect repeat performances.
Raul Ibanez and Ichiro Suzuki will be offensive mainstays for the
Mariners, but they are going to feature Brad Wilkerson regularly in
right field, and he hasn’t put up an above-average offensive season
since 2004 when he was in Montreal. Adrian Beltre will be slightly
above-average, and Richie Sexson will continue to kick his OBP and SLG
into a black hole.
Bedard aside, the Mariners are mediocre and I’d be surprised if they finished within 5 games of the Angels in the AL West.
#12 Milwaukee Brewers
It’s kind of scary to think of what the Brewers accomplished
last season with Ben Sheets managing only 141 innings and Rickie Weeks
suffering from the lingering effects of a wrist injury.
The Brewers featured an above-average player at every offensive
position except catcher and center field. Despite a sub-par starting
rotation, the Brewers rode their offense and decent bullpen to a finish
of four games over .500.
They lost Francisco Cordero, but they got Eric Gagne, David Riske,
and Salomon Torres, which more than offsets the loss. In acquiring
Cameron, Bill Hall will move to third base, and Ryan Braun will move to
left field.
The Brewers probably won’t see any marked improvement in their
5th-best NL offense or 9th-best pitching staff. The neighborhood of 83
wins continues to be a likely landing spot.
#13 Philadelphia Phillies
The feeling here is that Phillies took a step back this
off-season. How any team can trust Brad Lidge to close is beyond us.
But that’s assuming he’s even on the mound. Lidge had surgery to repair
cartilage in his right knee in October. It goes without saying that
this is something to watch in spring. If you believe Aaron Rowand was
the unsung hero of the offense last season, then being optimistic about
the Phils gets that much harder now that he’s in San Francisco.
How the Phillies are 6th-best in the NL according to Aram is
baffling. They feature the NL’s best offense by far, three legitimate
MVP candidates in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, one of
the best 1-2 punches in the NL with Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, and a
markedly improved bullpen. In addition, their defense will set the
standard in the NL, and they easily have the deepest bench in the
league.
The only question marks with the Phillies are Cole Hamels’ health
(he’s always been an injury concern, even throughout the Minor Leagues)
and the #3-5 spots in the rotation. Kyle Kendrick had a stunning ‘07
season and is a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park given his ground
ball tendencies. However, that was only one year and it could just be a
fluke. Jamie Moyer, if Julio Franco doesn’t sign with a team, will be
baseball’s oldest player on Opening Day, and Adam Eaton will have the
#5 spot in the rotation most likely.
If the Santana pushes the Mets to #1 in the NL, the Phillies are #2.
Everyone, for some reason, assumes Brad Lidge is a wreck, but if you look at his ‘07 season, it looks pretty damn good:
After Lidge, the Phillies have three solid pitchers in Tom Gordon,
Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero. The Phillies don’t have a bullpen as good
as, say, the Rockies, but it’s still above-average.
Losing Aaron Rowand was inconsequential. Victorino simply moves to
center field and right field will consist o####eoff Jenkins/Jayson
Werth platoon. Victorino is a huge improvement defensively, and the
right field platoon will more than make up for Rowand’s offense.
#14 Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee wasn’t himself last season and Alfonso Soriano had a
down year. But even still, the Cubs won the Central. It’s reasonable to
expect both Lee and Soriano to perform better. In that case, the Cubs
are once again viable in the Central. Staying healthy in spring,
especially 3B Aramis Ramirez, is key. As is finding a closer out of a
group that includes Kerry Wood.
Soriano had a down year? You can say that, but it’s really nit-picking.
Soriano 2006: .351 OBP/.560 SLG
Soriano 2007: .337 OBP/.560 SLG
Just a .014 drop in OBP. He did miss about 20 more games than he usually does, but he isn’t an injury concern.
Derrek Lee wasn’t himself?
Lee career: .367 OBP/.502 SLG
Lee 2007: .400 OBP/.513 SLG (567 AB)
Looks like he had a pretty good season, no?
Aramis Ramirez has had 500+ AB every season since 2000, when he was
still a young player looking for an everyday role. And I could find no
news about the Cubs third baseman having any injury difficulties.
The Cubs feature the NL’s best starting rotation — a 100+ ERA at
every slot. As for a closer, they have options, including Carlos
Marmol, who had an exceptional 2007 season. Seeing as how it was his
“breakout” season, it’s unreasonable to expect a 1.43 ERA in 69 innings
again, but he could be the Cubs’ answer at closer. Bob Howry is the
other candidate and he’s had four straight seasons with an ERA+ of at
least 140.
The Cubs will feature a slightly improved offense now that they
added Kosuke Fukudome, and will rival the Padres again for the league’s
best overall pitching staff. The Cubs are a close #4 behind the Mets, Phillies, and Rockies in the NL.
#15 Atlanta Braves
It’s hard to like any team with two starting pitchers in their
40s. But John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have proven they can pitch with
dignity, even in old age. But how long will that last? The offense
remains solid, but certainly didn’t get better by swapping Andruw Jones
for Mark Kotsay. And that says nothing about what the defense lost with
Jones moving to L.A.
People are going to be sorry for underrating the Braves. Losing
Andruw Jones isn’t a good thing, definitely, but given his poor
mechanics, there’s a higher than usual possibility that Jones’ ‘07
season wasn’t a fluke. If so, replacing Jones with Kotsay is much less
of a drop-off than it appears.
In ‘07, the Braves had the 3rd-best offense and 3rd-best pitching
staff in the National League. Does adding Tom Glavine, behind Tim
Hudson and John Smoltz, hurt them? I can’t think of a reason how. And
the Braves will still feature three offensive mainstays in their
line-up…
Johnson: 117 OPS+
C. Jones: 166
Diaz: 124
Catcher Brian McCann and right fielder Jeff Francoeur had average
seasons in ‘07, but if they learn how to draw a few more walks, they
could make the Braves’ offense explosive. Either way, it’s an offense
to be reckoned with, much like the Phillies’ and Mets’. It’s a
three-horse race in the National League East, and three of the NL’s top
five teams are from the East.
. . .
That’s the top-fifteen. There’s a lot of nit-picking to be done with
his bottom-fifteen, but we can all universally agree that the Marlins,
Royals, Pirates, Giants, Orioles, Twins, Cardinals, and White Sox will
be bad. The Nationals, Padres, Astros, Rangers, and Athletics have the
potential to be mediocre. And the Rays and Reds are mediocre teams that
have the potential to have breakout seasons.
And what you’ve all been waiting for: my top-fifteen power rankings:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Cleveland Indians
3. New York Mets
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Philadelphia Phillies
6. Detroit Tigers
7. Colorado Rockies
8. Atlanta Braves
9. Chicago Cubs
10. New York Yankees
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Seattle Mariners
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
14. San Diego Padres
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
As always, feel free to berate me in the comments.
The marquee market in this year’s version of free agency is center
fielders. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez excluded, there is no glitz and
glamor available at any other position on the baseball diamond, talking
strictly about free agency.
Not surprisingly, the people in charge of human perception have
botched the project again. For some reason, not only was Torii Hunter
the first big name — not named A-rod — to sign, but he was signed
before Andruw Jones. Usually, the best player is signed first, for
logical reasons.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed Hunter to a five-year, $90
million contract recently. The rationality of that move aside, Hunter
is A) not worth that money and B) not in the same class as Andruw Jones.
You know what? I’m not going to put the rationality of that move
aside. The Angels’ outfield now consists of Vladimir Guerrero ($14.5
million in ‘08), Gary Matthews, Jr. ($9 million), Garrett Anderson ($12
million), and Hunter ($18 million). They’re paying their outfield $53.5
million, or slightly less than half of their 2007 payroll. And don’t
forget about Juan Rivera, who will probably be making another $2
million or so as their 4th or 5th outfielder.
According to the Angels’ website:
Angels manager Mike Scioscia said Hunter would be
the regular center fielder, with Matthews providing depth at all three
outfield spots. Anderson and Guerrero are expected to spend more time
in the designated-hitter role in 2008, giving Matthews plenty of
opportunities to play left and right.
That’s right, the Angels are paying two of their outfielders almost
$27 million combined to be occasional offense-only players. Matthews is
getting $9 million to be a utility outfielder.
Anyway, back to free agency. Andruw Jones is perceived to have lost
value because of his poor 2007 showing. He put up only an 88 OPS+
despite hitting 26 HR and driving in 94 runs. His walks and doubles
were around his career average, he just didn’t get too many hits,
despite a .283 BABIP (a bit less than average).
However, Jones is only 31 and the chances of him returning to being
a top-tier offensive center fielder are highly likely. Jones’ other
poor season, 2001, was followed by some of the best years of his
career, though they were in his prime years (ages 25-29). And despite
common perception, Jones’ hasn’t lost much, if anything, on defense, as
he led the National League in both RZR and OOZ.
A quick glance of Andruw Jones’ statistics tells you that he has
been and still can be the best center fielder in baseball. The common
perception around baseball disagrees. Jayson Stark, for instance,
called him the most overrated center fielder of all time. In Stark’s article, he states about Jones’ defense:
[…]while most of us weren’t paying attention, Andruw
was slowly, apparently imperceptibly, losing the part of that gift that
made him special.
[…]
I thought: that can’t be right. A friend suggested maybe it was
a function of the Braves’ pitching staff. Maybe they were just throwing
fewer fly balls than they used to. Great point. So I checked.
Fortunately, there’s a stat that measures that, too — zone rating (the
percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical zone).
So I called up the 2006 zone rating of all
qualifying major league center fielders on ESPN.com. Guess who was last
on the list? Yessir, Andruw. He also finished last in 2004. And fifth
from the bottom in 2005. I kept checking. As recently as 2001, he led
his league in zone rating. So obviously, we had a definitive trend on
our hands.
However, using the Revised Zone Rating (RZR), we find that Andruw’s
defense only slipped in one season: 2004 (8th out of 11 NL CF in RZR;
tied-first in OOZ). His OOZ shows that he was still able to get to
balls most CF weren’t able to get. But in 2005, he was third among 9
qualified NL CF in RZR and second in OOZ. 2006? 4th of 11 in RZR, 2nd
in OOZ. And, as mentioned, he led in both categories in 2007.
So, his defense hasn’t slipped nearly as much as Stark thinks.
Sticking with Sabermetrics — in such a lousy year for Jones, he
still managed to add almost six and a half wins to his team. Guess how
many Hunter added in one of his best seasons of his career? Eight. The
difference between Jones at his worst and Hunter at his best is one and
a half wins.
Jones’ worst WARP-3 prior to 2007 was 7.9. Hunter’s best was 8.3. Just a half a win difference there.
The other misconception is that Hunter’s defense is impeccable.
YEAR: RZR, RANK; OOZ, RANK
2007: .891 RZR, 7th out of 10; 47 OOZ, 5th in AL
2006: .894 RZR, 8th out of 10; 48 OOZ, 6th in AL
2005: Not enough defensive innings
2004: .822 RZR, 3rd out of 8; 65 OOZ, 1st in AL
Even Hunter’s “good” defensive season in 2004 is mediocre compared to the seasons after.
Offensively, Hunter is good, but isn’t anything truly special. In
his nine full seasons, his career average OPS+ is 104. League-average
is always 100. His last two seasons, though, have been among the best
in his career, so there’s hope for a trend there if you’re the Angels.
Overall, Hunter is the overrated center fielder, not Jones. The Angels
will likely end up regretting giving Hunter such a large contract. A
player that produces on average only slightly better than the league
average doesn’t deserve $18 million per season.
Another center fielder looking for a big contract is Aaron Rowand.
In his 5 seasons of 300 or more at-bats, two have been below-average,
two have been above-average, and one has been average. So, he’s an
average center fielder coming off of a career season in his walk year.
That has warning labels stuck all over it.
Rowand, perhaps more so than Hunter, is noted for his grit and
disregard for his own safety, as evidenced by his face-plant into the
Citizens Bank Park center field fence in 2006 that earned him a broken
nose.
Beware of Rowand. Compare his career .343 OBP to the .342 league
average. Or his career .462 slugging to the league average .439. He
averages 5.75 wins per season to his team, which isn’t bad, but doesn’t
place him among the elite in center field.
You never know with his defense, either. In 2006, the year he busted
his face, his RZR was 9th among 11 qualified NL CF. He was 10th in OOZ
plays, but OOZ is a counting statistic and Rowand missed time twice
with injuries in 2006. However, his teammate Shane Victorino had one
more OOZ and a .902 RZR (to Rowand’s .882) in 343 fewer defensive
innings in 2006.
Realistically, only Jones deserves to be paid highly, but the prices
aren’t dictated like that. The market for any good player is remarkably
high, since the free agent class has been so weak not just this
off-season, but last off-season as well — remember Adam Eaton and Gil
Meche’s contracts?
Hunter and Rowand will be sought after highly not only because
they’re perceived (wrongly) to be great players, but because they’re
the best among what little is available. Who would you want: Aaron
Rowand or Corey Patterson? Torii Hunter or Jeff DaVanon?
If it wasn’t already blatantly obvious by their sickeningly frequent
advertising, State Farm is, of course, a top sponsor of Major League
Baseball. As such, State Farm plastered its name and logo all over
A####mp;T Park at this year’s All-Star festivities in San Francisco. On
MLB’s website, you couldn’t watch a 15-second highlight this season
without having to sit through that tired commercial where a man
reminisces about Hank Aaron, his father, and his childhood. Touching,
because State Farm cares.
Just kidding. If they really cared, would they be screwing the
victims of Hurricane Katrina out of policy payments? As Brian Ross and
Joseph Rhee report from ABCNews.com:
State Farm Insurance supervisors systematically
demanded that Hurricane Katrina damage reports be buried or replaced or
changed so that the company would not have to pay policyholders’ claims
in Mississippi, two State Farm insiders tell ABC News.
[…]
[Kerri and Cori Rigsby] say they saw supervisors go to
great lengths to pressure outside engineers to prepare reports
concluding that damage was caused by water, not covered under State
Farm policies, rather than by wind.
They say reports that concluded that damage was caused by wind,
for which State Farm would have to pay, were hidden in a special file
and new reports were ordered.
Remember State Farm’s legendary jingle, “Like a good neighbor, State
Farm is there”? Now it’s ironic.
In this highly-corrupt era of
capitalism we find ourselves in here in the United States, it would be
remarkable to see Major League Baseball, a huge business, do the right
thing by severing its ties with State Farm. Don’t hold your breath,
though.
Instead, what both companies can do is have all of the proceeds from
the All-Star festivities, for the duration of the contract, be given to
the victims of Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast. For years, we saw
Century 21 give away houses at the Home Run Derby to people who,
presumably, did not need a new house. State Farm could do them one
better by giving houses to people who really need houses.
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
