Even before the new Phillies closer had his second knee surgery of
the off-season, there was plenty of doubt cast on Brad Lidge and it had
nothing to do with that right knee of his. Ever since that Game 5
three-run home run served up to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS, it
seems Lidge hit a mental wall, or at least that’s what those affirming the consequent — fans and media alike — would like you to think.
Lidge, obviously, is one of the few people who has a truly educated
opinion on the matter of how the Pujols home run affected him in 2006.
In late January, Ken Mandel explained:
He called those 2006 struggles a “mechanical issue,”
though he admits he developed a cut fastball for 2007 because he lost
confidence in his devastating fastball and hard-biting slider.
By April of last season, Lidge had lost his closer job. During
an April game against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, he had
runners on second and third with no outs. Houston catcher Brad Ausmus
implored him to use his fastball and slider, and “see what happens,”
according to Lidge.
He struck out the next three hitters.
“I felt as good as ever after that and went through the best
stretch of my career after that,” Lidge said. “Earning my job back felt
better than if it was handed to me when I wasn’t throwing well. I
needed to earn it back.”
So, it wasn’t that he was mentally wrecked after Pujols hit a
three-run home run in the 2005 NLCS; it was that he got away from his
fastball and slider.
After that game against the Phillies on April 23 until the end of
the season, Lidge pitched 60 and two-thirds innings, struck out 81, and
put up a 2.82 ERA. He finished the season with a 131 ERA+ and a 1.254
WHIP, impressive statistics for a closer deemed mentally anguished.
Concerns about Lidge now that he’s had a second knee surgery
certainly are legitimate, but the latest, a partial medial menisectomy,
was a success:
“It really was the best-case scenario that it was
the only thing going on,” Phillies athletic trainer Scott Sheridan said
of Lidge’s knee. “His other side of the knee that he had repaired was
fine. It was pretty simple for us.”
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki also reported that there’s
a possibility that Lidge could be back in time for Opening Day on March
31.
Not too much to worry about with the new Phillies closer, really.
The projections seem to agree. Only Marcel puts him above a 4.00 ERA
(4.23 to be exact). Bill James, CHONE, and ZiPS put him at 3.44, 3.42,
and 3.88 respectively. CHONE and ZiPS both have him pitching over 70
innings as well.
The Phillies’ front office has stated that they are done making
major deals until spring training starts, though that doesn’t exclude a
signing of someone like Kyle Lohse or Kris Benson. The only thing left
to complete then is signing Ryan Howard to some kind of a deal, as
Howard is arbitration-eligible for the first time in his brief career.
The Phillies and their Ruthian first baseman exchanged figures
recently and were $3 million away from each other: the Phils offered
him $7 million; Howard wanted $10 million. Should this be settled by an
arbitrator, there’s little doubt the Phillies would win, as $10 million
for a first-time arbitration-eligible player is unprecedented (as a
comparison, Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million in his first year of
arbitration eligibility).
Before last season, however, Howard and the Phillies were at odds.
The author of the Phillies’ franchise single-season home run record
wanted a long-term deal. Instead, the Phillies gave him a one-year deal
worth $900,000. Howard was disappointed, though it tied the record,
held along with Albert Pujols, for the highest base salary for a
non-arbitration-eligible player. When the deal was completed, Howard
said:
It’s a little frustrating and a little disappointing
that we didn’t get it done, but that’s the business aspect. Now you use
it as a starting point. It’s over. Now you go out and play.
Should the Phillies give him a long-term deal now? They have control
of him until after the 2011 season and can go year-to-year with him in
arbitration until then. Let’s look at some possibilities.
The Phillies sign Howard to a large long-term deal worth $90 million over the next six seasons.
The Phillies now have control of Howard until after his age 33
season in 2013, when he would undoubtedly be in decline. For those six
years, the Phillies wouldn’t have to worry about drafting a first
baseman and would have an almost-definite above-average offense, since
they also have Chase Utley locked up until after the ‘13 season.
Adrian Cardenas, one of the Phillies’ top prospects, then becomes
valuable to the Phillies in two ways: they can try him out as a
potential third baseman (or perhaps an outfielder), or they can
continue grooming him as a second baseman and use him as trade bait,
since he’s road-blocked by Utley at his natural position.
By the time Howard’s contract is nearing its end, his annual salary
will likely look like a bargain, given inflation. This benefits the
Phillies two-fold: the relative cheapness gives them probable cap space
to add players and it increases Howard’s trade value.
As for ‘08, the Phillies will have little cap room to make another
signing (i.e. Lohse) or an in-season move unless it involved shedding
salary (perhaps that of Pat Burrell?).
The Phillies sign Howard to a back-loaded four-year, $65 million deal.
With this contract, Howard averages over $16 million per season, so
he’s definitely being fairly compensated when you compare it to what
he’d make in arbitration. Backloading the contract allows the Phillies
flexibility in the immediate future, so they can still sign a player
like Kyle Lohse to round out the starting rotation while still ensuring
themselves that the mainstay in their offense is happy about his tenure
in Philadelphia and doesn’t demand to be traded.
When Howard is reaching the end of this four-year deal and is
destined for free agency, the Phillies may want to consider trading
Howard and moving Chase Utley over to first base. This is feasible only
if Adrian Cardenas makes significant progress in the Minor Leagues,
another impact second baseman is drafted and climbs the ranks quickly,
or the Phillies sign another good second baseman.
Howard’s deal will run out two years before Utley’s, so that means
that unlike the hypothetical six-year deal, the Phillies won’t be left
with having to deal with the simultaneous contracts of their two best
players. The Phillies can deal Howard without fearing that their
offense will collapse and won't have enough talent to contend.
The Phillies go year-to-year with Ryan Howard until after the 2011 season.
This is a dangerous way to go, as it will all but guarantee that
Howard will not be wearing a Phillies uniform in 2012. However, the
Phillies would end up getting a bargain and paying market value for a
top-tier first baseman, allowing them the financial flexibility to
round out the roster and give them the best chance to make a run at the
World Series. The Phillies are, if nothing else, a team built for the
immediate future.
Towards 2011, the Phillies could shop Howard around similar to how
the Twins are shopping Johan Santana. Teams would likely overpay for a
top-five offensive juggernaut (assuming Howard averages a 130 or so
OPS+) both in terms of players given up and the amount of Howard’s
remaining contract taken. Then the Phillies could move Utley to first
or shop for another first baseman in the off-season.
So, what should the Phillies do? The Good Phight analyzed how players most similar to Howard performed in their same-age seasons and concluded:
On balance, I think this data suggests that Howard
is a solid bet to deliver very good to excellent production over at
least the next 4-5 seasons.
“Very good” and “excellent” are ambiguous, perhaps intentionally so.
Either way, I’ll take “very good to excellent production” with a
backloaded four-year, $65-ish million deal for Howard. After ‘11,
either deal him or if he’s still productive as his career wanes in his
mid-30’s, maybe he’ll want to sign another lighter contract for the
Phillies.
During ESPN's broadcast of the White Sox/Phillies interleague game on June 11, color analyst Rick Sutcliffe was referring to players from the Phillies' 1980 championship team that had intensity: "the Pete Roses, the Mike Schmidts, the Larry Bowas" (to paraphrase, although I believe that's an exact quote).
New Rule: Broadcasters must stop referring to non-football scores in football terms. From the same White Sox/Phillies game, ESPN anchor Rece Davis, during an in-game SportsCenter report, referred to the Mariners' 7-0 lead over the Indians as the Mariners leading "by a touchdown."
I wonder why no one will ever bother to refer to the same score as 7 free throws, two and one-third three-pointers, 7 penalty shots, three and a half safeties, etc. Oh yeah, because it's the wrong sport.
New Rule: ESPN must stop trying to blatantly trick its viewers into sticking around. To the untrained eye, they'll make it seem like the latest Red Sox/Yankees game was a thriller, or that Barry Bonds went deep twice, only for you to find out that Bonds went 0-2 with two intentional walks, and the Red Sox/Yankees game got rained out. You can't fault them for trying to get their viewership as high as possible, but come on now.
New Rule: When ESPN picks up its hockey coverage next fall, analyst Barry Melrose must be adorned with a crown and jewels, for he is to ESPN's hockey coverage as electricity is to the human race.
New Rule: In keeping with my righting of ESPN's sinking ship, all ESPN cameramen must pre-emptively register as sex offenders. Is it me, or do they seem to pan to attractive (non-celebrity) female fans in attendance whenever they get the opportunity to drift away from the game? If they were using that camera behind the blinds in their bedroom, it would be a grossly perverted thing to do.
New Rule: Baseball fans must stop caring about whether or not Bud Selig and Hank Aaron attend the game in which Bonds ties and/or breaks the all-time career homeruns record. Their attendance does nothing to denigrate Bonds' illustrious accomplishment. However, Aaron's absence will take away from his legacy a bit, but that's his choice. As it stands, Aaron says he will not attend, and that just makes him look like a hypocritical old man who can't handle the fact that his record is about to be taken from him. There's as much likelihood that Bonds used steroids as there is that Aaron used amphetamines (which Bonds tested positive for, by the way).
New Rule: Fans must stop whining about greedy and self-centered athletes. It's amazing how socialists are bashed in this country for wanting equality for all, and those same socialist-bashers call for socialism in sports, be it in the team-first mentality they expect all players to have, salary caps (a socialist desire if there's ever been one), or otherwise even monetary distribution, be it among teams or individual players.
Joe Average can suggest that the baseball economy is ruined because Roger Clemens is making almost $30 million prorated this season, but far be it for someone to suggest that this surprisingly robust American economy is suffering from corporate greed.
Where are the cries for more even wealth distribution there?
New Rule: Baseball fans must stop throwing homerun balls hit by the opposing team back onto the field. The gimmick was originally started in Chicago many, many years ago, and almost all of the baseball cities' fans have adopted this tactic, and it's old and pointless now, especially when a raucous crowd pressures a 7-year-old kid with his first (and probably last) genuine homerun ball to throw it -- no, waste it -- back onto the field.
New Rule: Anyone not yet on the "pitch counts save arms" bandwagon yet must perform a very scientific experiment on themselves, as follows: Get an MRI exam and a physical. Then, for the next 6 months (7 if they're a fan of a team that made the post-season), they must throw 110 pitches -- 70 fastballs, 40 off-speed pitches (curveballs, change-ups, etc.) -- once every five days. In-between those "starts," these old-school fans must also throw a "bullpen" session that mimicks that of the Major League players. During the "starts," every pitch is analyzed in-depth (pitch speed, location, movement, consistency in mechanics).
After the 6-7 months are up, said fans must go back and get another MRI and a physical. When all of this is done, if said fan does not see any noticeable difference in arm strength, arm health, speed of his pitches (both overall and between the first and last pitches of his "starts"), location, movement, consistency, etc., then this fan must send his results to the thousands of trained physicians and pitching coaches that advocate the use of the pitch count.
While one experiment alone won't change things, if these doctors and pitching coaches are so misguided in trying to preserve the health of their starters, then hundreds, if not thousands of Joe Averages should be able to come up with relatively the same results.
New Rule: A start cannot be referred to as a potential perfect game or no-hitter until the start of the seventh inning. It's just common sense. Two-thirds of the way through is the line that must be crossed before these whispers can start circulating. The only exception to this rule is a game that has the potential to be called short due to rain (a perfect game is still a perfect game, even if the game stops once it's official after five innings, or after four and a half if the home team is ahead).
New Rule: The weight of the fans' votes in All-Star voting must be significantly decreased. Currently, the fans have voted the following undeserving players into the All-Star Game: Albert Pujols (over Prince Fielder?), David Wright (over Miguel Cabrera?), Alfonso Soriano (over Carlos Lee?), David Ortiz (over Justin Morneau?), Robinson Cano (over B.J. Upton?), Ivan Rodriguez (over Victor Martinez?), and Manny Ramriez (over Magglio Ordonez?).
My suggestion? Give the fans five slots for the popular vote. Give the managers of the AL and NL All-Star teams the right to choose their starting nine (and the designated hitter if the home field is in the American League) any way they want as long as there is no obvious favoritism, and his selections are warranted by their statistics.
In addition, the "all teams must be represented" rule must be thrown out, but another rule is implemented in that there has to be at least four teams represented on the field at all times. That will eliminate the debacle that occurred at last year's All-Star Game when, at one point, 7 of the 8 AL position players were members of either the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.
New Rule: To get off of the sports rules to end this -- if you're going to open a museum that promotes the Bible's story of creation, you must have actual scientific proof to back this up. AnswersInGenesis.org sponsors this museum, and they have some pretty wacky stuff on their website. I'd rather not link to it and give them the smattering of increased traffic as a result, but their warped view on reality speaks for itself.
Dinosaurs existing with humans? Only if you're talking about animals that descended from dinosaurs...
Oh, the Creation Museum and their unintentional humor. And this, too:
Murals and realistic scenery, computer-generated visual effects, over fifty exotic animals, life-sized people and dinosaur animatronics, and a special-effects theater complete with misty sea breezes and rumbling seats.
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
