It’s been said you can tell a lot about a person by
her shoes. And now, as CBS 2’s Vince Gerasole reports, shoes may also
say something about who takes the lead in a crisis and who follows in
another’s footsteps.
New research suggests those buying three pairs of sneakers a
year are more likely to be walking in the shoes of a serious leader.
We must know how many pairs of shoes Derek Jeter and Aaron Rowand buy per year!
It is only when we get a hold of these figures that we can take
Sabermetric research seriously. Seriously, think of SPARP — Shoes
Purchased Above Replacement Player and its partner, LQ — Leadership
Quotient. What is being divided, I don’t know, but until then, you
calculator nerds continue holding down the couch springs in your mothers’ basements.
You didn’t hear it here, but… Pat Gillick is good at acquiring
damaged goods. Before last season, Gillick traded for Freddy Garcia and
sent failed project Gavin Floyd and prized left-hander and strikeout
artist Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox. Garcia’s tenure with the Phillies
was most unimpressive: 11 starts, 58 innings, 5.90 ERA, and a 1.6 WHIP.
His season was shut down on June 8 after a chronic shoulder problem
could be hidden no longer.
General manager Pat Gillick insisted Garcia wasn’t
“damaged goods” when the team acquired him. Even though some reports
said Garcia’s velocity was down toward the end of last season, the
Phillies didn’t make the trade contingent upon him passing a physical.
“We didn’t think a physical was necessary,” Gillick said. “Our
doctors spoke to their doctors and our training staff spoke to theirs
and we were satisfied his health was good. Our scouts saw him pitch in
September. They thought he was healthy.”
Breathe easy — the Phillies did, in fact, require Lidge to pass a
physical before completing the trade with the Houston Astros and new GM
Ed Wade.
The flame-throwing right-hander threw one pitch on Saturday and
ended up re-injuring his right knee. Lidge had surgery on the knee in
October and the Phillies required him to have surgery once again, a
partial medial menisectomy. It was successful:
“The other side of the knee is fine,” Phillies
trainer Scott Sheridan told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark on Monday. Sheridan
called Lidge’s injury and the subsequent successful surgery “the
best-case scenario” for the Phillies.
[…]
“Right now, if we had to do this during the season, then
obviously you’re missing a big chunk of the season,” Lidge said. “I
definitely need a few bullpen sessions, but I feel like my arm is ahead
of schedule so after a week I should be able to throw again.”
Tom Gordon will take over as closer in the meantime, and Brett Myers will not be returning to the bullpen.
The Lidge injury has to make you wonder about Gillick, though. He’s
acquired a few who have had some kind of injury risk come to fruition.
Adam Eaton and Tom Gordon are a couple that come to mind besides Garcia
and Lidge.
Lohse said he would still welcome a return to
Philadelphia, but the Phillies didn’t like his salary demands after
they were shunned in what was believed to have been an offer in the
three-year, $20-million range. Of course, that could change if Brad
Lidge’s right knee is serious, and Brett Myers shifts back to the
bullpen.
I never thought I’d say this about any league-average starting
pitcher, but the Phillies need Kyle Lohse. He would bump the
injury-prone and highly unimpressive Adam Eaton from the rotation and
give the Phillies league-average production from the #5 spot, an
offering most teams would love to have (which makes Lohse’s continued
unemployment all the more perplexing).
The Phillies are correct in being offended at Lohse’s high demands,
but three years, $20 million is also insulting to Lohse based on the
current market.
It would be insulting to me, as a Phillies fan, if I was to find out
that Gillick or Amaro have stopped talking to Lohse after he rejected
that three-year offer. The Phillies need a reliable starting rotation
like a diabetic needs insulin [insert laugh track].
Scott Rolen would have waived his no-trade clause to return to Philadelphia had the chance presented itself this winter.
I will let the numbers speak for themselves.
Scott Rolen avg. WARP with Cardinals (2003-07): 7.86 (excludes ‘02 when he was traded from the Phillies and includes his injury-plagued ‘05 season).
Pedro Feliz avg. WARP with Giants since getting regular playing time: 4.10.
Of course, their contracts have to be taken into account as well (information per Cot’s Contracts).
Rolen: $11 million in each of ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10 with an extra $4 million bonus due in ‘10; full no-trade clause.
Feliz: $3 million in ‘08, $5 million in ‘09, and a $5 million club option in ‘10 with a $500,000 buyout.
If the Phillies had acquired Rolen instead of Feliz, they’d be
paying an extra $8 million this season and $6 million in ‘09 for about
three and a half extra wins. And the Phillies would have had to have
sent something of value to the Jays.
The problem with Rolen, of course, is his injury propensity. After
getting 400+ AB in every season from 1997-2004, he failed to cross that
plateau in 2005 (196 AB) and ‘07 (392 AB). Feliz has no nagging injury
problems.
As for the poor relationship between the Phillies’ front office and Rolen:
“We felt if he came in and played well, all that
other stuff would be water under the bridge,” [Phillies Assistant GM
Mike] Arbuckle said. “But if we guessed wrong on the shoulder, we
didn’t think we’d be in a position to absorb another injury that would
limit our flexibility to fill other needs.”
Rolen definitely would’ve been a better acquisition, but given his
salary, it may have hindered the ability for the Phillies to sign
anyone else, like Kyle Lohse. Of course, if the Phillies fail to pick
up another pitcher, it will all be moot…
There’s a lot of Rowand to quote from that article, so I won’t do it
here, but to paraphrase, he’s offended that Pat Gillick considered him
an injury risk and that the Phillies didn’t see him as part of their
“core.”
“I’ve been on the DL twice in my life, not just in my
professional career. That includes college, high school. And it was
both in ‘06. [Gillick] saw me play for 2 years and I was on the DL
twice. But, knock on wood, I’ve been lucky. I’d be lying to you if I
said that didn’t bother me.”
Rowand took a five-year, $60 million deal from a last place team.
Obviously, money is his #1 priority, especially since he’s already won
a World Series and he has a mainstream following. Giving $12 million a
year to a player who puts his own safety at risk (link — go to May 11) and his teammates’ as well,
is not smart. Add to that he’s a slightly better than average center
fielder both offensively and defensively, and it’s just not smart to
lock him up long-term, especially at an average of $12 million per
season.
One can’t fault Rowand, however, for chasing the bigger contract.
Just don’t feel sorry for him when the Giants hit 70 wins two weeks
away from the end of September, while the Phillies are in the thick of
a race for the NL East crown.
Rollins doesn’t have much to be angry about. He’s
the reigning National League MVP and seems to have a lot of fun with
this stuff. But according to a report by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, a few of
Rollins’ Philly teammates have been privately fuming about Beltran’s
comments and even suggested to Stark that “there will be a brawl this
year.”
Brawls, of course, are awesome because you get to watch around 75
grown men pretend they know how to fight. Most times, these brawls just
result in a little pushing and shoving with no punches thrown. However,
a couple one-on-one match-ups would be interesting:
Pat Burrell vs. Billy Wagner: Their verbal
sparring boiling over into a physical confrontation would almost be too
entertaining for cable TV. Burrell, of course, called Wagner a “rat”
after he left the Phillies for the Mets. In 2007, Burrell victimized
Billy Wagner twice:
June 7: Burrell ties the game up at 3 apiece with a solo home run to left-center.
August 30:
Burrell hits a solo home run to left field to bring the Phillies one
run behind the Mets at 10-9. The next inning, Jayson Werth singled and
stole both second and third base (Wagner is awful at holding runners).
He was promptly driven in by Tadahito Iguchi to tie the game at 10
apiece.
Brett Myers vs. Anna Benson: It’s unlikely these
two would come to blows, even though Anna is a woman and Brett loves
hitting women. Should there be a bench-clearing brawl, it is highly
likely Mrs. Benson has sequestered a young lad in the pits of Citizens Bank Park for, I don’t know, a talk?
Shane Victorino vs. Jose Reyes: This duel would
not be settled via fisticuffs; rather, the two would engage in a
footrace to settle the question, “Who is the fastest player in Major
League Baseball?”
As the final seconds ticked off of the fourth quarter clock and the
New York Giants earned victory in Super Bowl XLII, those of us who are
more inclined towards baseball breathed a sigh of relief and marked
another X on the calendar: A week and a half until P’s and C’s report;
three weeks until exhibition games begin; seven weeks until the regular
season begins.
The Phillies, for the most part, look like an improved team. Brad
Lidge was acquired from the Houston Astros; Shane Victorino moved to
center field following the departure of Aaron Rowand; Geoff Jenkins was
signed to platoon with Jayson Werth in right field; Pedro Feliz was
given red pinstripes as a hopeful answer to the team’s third base woes.
Meanwhile, the Phillies watched the Marlins pawn off their two
franchise players, the Nationals sign and trade for no one important,
the Braves lose Andruw Jones to free agency and trade Edgar Renteria to
Detroit and replace them with weaker players. Oh, and the Mets traded
for the best pitcher in baseball. The Johan Santana deal aside,
everyone in the division either got weaker or stayed essentially in the
same place.
Jimmy Rollins, almost a year after declaring the Phillies “the team
to beat” in the NL East (and being proven correct on the last day of
the regular season), claimed his team would win 100 games in 2008.
As I counted last August, the Phillies’ bullpen was responsible for at blowing at least 19 games
between April and the end of August. Remember, this is a bullpen that
featured — not just had; featured — Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey,
and Jose Mesa, among others, mostly due to the injuries to Closer #1
Tom Gordon, Closer #2 Brett Myers, and Ryan Madson.
Now, the Phillies feature a bona fide closer in Brad Lidge, a
now-serviceable set-up man in Tom Gordon, and a surprisingly deep
bullpen, now that Ryan Madson will once again be healthy, and the team
kept J.C. Romero, who was stunningly effective since he arrived in
Philadelphia in early June last season. The bullpen, barring injury,
doesn’t figure to be a problem for the Phillies in 2008.
As always, the Phillies feature one of baseball’s best offenses.
Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, and the pitchers aside, the Phillies
feature 20-25 HR potential at every position, and Ryan Howard, Pat
Burrell, and Chase Utley are three of baseball’s best at getting on
base. Obviously, scoring runs won’t be a problem for the Phillies,
either, but given that Pedro Feliz and his sub-.300 OBP will be playing
every day, expect a very slight regression in runs scored from ‘07.
However, preventing them appears to be a problem for the starting rotation once you get past Cole Hamels and Brett Myers.
Jamie Moyer is 45, put up a 5.01 ERA, and averaged his highest base
runners per inning rate since 2000. Age is less of a problem for a
pitcher of Moyer’s ilk, since he relies not on speed, but purely on
location and intellect. Either way, Moyer cannot be relied on anything
more than league-average production.
Kyle Kendrick put up an impressing rookie campaign for the Phillies
in which he revealed himself as a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park
and the Phillies. In 2007, more than 47% of Kendrick’s batted balls
were of the ground ball variety, and in CBP, where the gusting winds
push would-be fly ball outs halfway up the stands in left field,
throwing ground balls creates a huge advantage for their Phillies and
their now-great infield defense. Given Kendrick’s age and lack of MLB
experience though, we can’t reliably predict a repeat.
Adam Eaton. Not much needs to be said about him other than that the
sooner the Phillies get rid of him and his awful pitching, the better.
Eaton might be the worst pitcher the Phillies have allowed to pitch 150
innings or more since Brandon Duckworth in 2002. The non-progressives
in the Phillies’ front office likely don’t realize this and will try to
justify paying him $24.5 million over three years by letting him take
the mound once every five games.
Depending on how Kendrick pans out, and how quick the Phillies are
to pull Eaton from the starting rotation, expect about average
production from the Phillies’ rotation. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers
will obviously be well above league-average but it won’t be enough to
offset the lackluster performances from the others. If the Phillies can
sign Kyle Lohse and bump Eaton from the rotation before the season even
starts, that would be such a boon.
Defensively, the Phillies are easily above-average. Pedro Feliz is
baseball’s best glove at third base, Chase Utley is a top-two defensive
second baseman, Victorino is a gazelle with a cannon in center field,
and Carlos Ruiz is one of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Pat Burrell and Geoff Jenkins lack range but both have strong arms,
Jayson Werth has decent speed and a strong arm, and Jimmy Rollins
provides average to slightly above-average shortstop defense. The only
defensive curse on the Phillies is Ryan Howard at first base.
Overall, I expect the Phillies to have the National League’s best
offense and Major League Baseball’s third-best, behind the Yankees and
Tigers. Pitching-wise, overall, I expect a middle-of-the-pack
performance, perhaps 9th out of the 16 National League teams. The
starting rotation will rank about 10th or 11th and the bullpen will
rank about 4th or 5th.
My prediction (with the roster as it is presently)
Phillies 2008 RPG: 5.42 (878 runs).
Phillies 2008 RAPG: 4.61 (747 runs).
Phillies 2008 record: 91-71, second in NL East behind the 93-69 Mets.
Bonus: Cole Hamels finishes a very close #2 to Johan Santana in Cy Young voting.
Reasons why you would ever consider signing free agent third baseman Pedro Feliz:
You are a bottom-feeding organization like the Tampa Bay Rays or Kansas City Royals.
You have never looked at baseball statistics before.
You like your hitters reaching base in less than 30% of their plate appearances.
You are a vengeful GM and the fans have wronged you.
Feliz blackmailed you.
Yet, the Phillies, who have three third basemen (Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Eric Bruntlett) are close to signing Feliz to a two-year, $8.5 million deal:
An agreement is believed to be pending a physical, which
could happen sometime this week, though the Phillies would only confirm
that the sides are in discussions. The deal is reportedly for $8.5
million over two years with a team option for 2010 that could approach
$15 million, according to an Associated Press report.
Feliz has played seven full seasons of Major League Baseball, and in
none of them has he ever been close to the league average on-base
percentage (usually between .330 and .345). In fact, he’s only been
above .300 once in 2004 (.305).
Offensively, Feliz is a black hole. He ranked 31st on the San Francisco Giants in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) at -2.7.
So, we’ve established that Feliz is unattractive offensively and
attractive defensively. Depending on how much money the Phillies threw
at him, this signing could be one of those where you just shrug your
shoulders. Who knows, maybe Feliz will improve on his offense. After
all, he did play in the very pitcher-friendly A####mp;T Park, and
players, under the tutelage of manager/offensive guru Charlie Manuel
and hitting coach Milt Thompson, usually end up being more prone to
taking walks and set career highs in OBP. For instance:
Aaron Rowand: Career-high 32 walks before ’07’s total of 47 walk; career-high .361 OBP before ’07’s .374.
Rod Barajas: Career-high .306 OBP before ’07’s
.352. He was, however, helped by hitting mostly eighth in the line-up,
in front of the pitcher.
Jayson Werth: Career-high .338 OBP before ’07’s .404.
David Bell: Career-high .331 OBP before ’04’s .363.
Jason Michaels: .364 and .399 ‘04-05 OBP’s with the Phillies; .326 and .324 ‘06-07 OBP’s with the Indians.
Don’t forget that the Phillies have also had four of the best
on-base players in the game in Chase Utley (.410 OBP in ‘07), Ryan
Howard (.392), Pat Burrell (.400), and Bobby Abreu (.408 career OBP).
Feliz will likely fill in as the #7 hitter, ahead of the catcher
(Carlos Ruiz or Chris Coste) and the pitcher, so the impact of his lack
of offense will be dulled a bit. Either way, it’s a questionable
signing at best and rather unnecessary.
As promised, I am going to delve into the new look of the Phillies’ outfield, and I also want to criticize Gerry Fraley for a ridiculous article he wrote for The Sporting News. Being the lazy person that I am, I’d like to kill two birds with one stone. I’m going to break it down Fire Joe Morgan-style (his words in bold; mine will follow in regular typeface).
In two seasons without center fielder Aaron Rowand, the Chicago White Sox are a .500 team and heading south.
You know this is going to be a pro-Rowand article based on the
title, so let me just get this out of the way right off the bat: the
White Sox are not bad because Aaron Rowand left. In 2007, they had the
league’s worst offense, and the third-worst pitching. Rowand can’t
pitch and I’m pretty sure he’s not potent enough to bring his team from
a 4.28 runs per game average to around 5 per game, which would put them
slightly behind sixth place. Barry Bonds might have been able to do
that, but certainly not Aaron Rowand.
The White Sox were bad in ‘07 because Paul Konerko had a .091 point
decline in OPS from the previous season, Jermaine Dye had a .204
decline in OPS, and Jim Thome was the only potent offensive force in
the lineup. Jon Garland has been decidedly mediocre, and the back of
their starting rotation was about as unproductive as it could have
been. And aside from Bobby Jenks, their bullpen was nearly as bad as
the Phillies’.
After saying he wanted to stay with the Phillies, Rowand
swerved and signed a five-year, $60-million deal with San Francisco.
His change of heart puts the Phillies in a bind.
“Bind” is hyperbole. The Phillies would have preferred to keep
Rowand in his age 30-32 years, but he wanted five years at $12 million,
which is what he got from the Giants. He simply wasn’t worth it.
Jayson Werth isn’t a terrible Plan B, and Rowand’s departure simply
made the Phillies look for a Plan B2 and B3, which was searching for
either another regular center fielder (Cameron), or moving Victorino to
center and finding a platoon partner for Werth (Geoff Jenkins).
Look at it this way, using simple OPS:
Aaron Rowand: .779 OPS vs. RHP (68% of career PA); .862 vs. LHP (32%); .805 vs. both.
Shane Victorino: .741 OPS vs. both.
Mike Cameron: .767 OPS vs. RHP (75% of career PA); .843 OPS vs. LHP (25%); .786 vs. both.
Geoff Jenkins: .883 OPS vs. RHP (76% of career PA)
Jayson Werth: .864 OPS vs. LHP (29% of career PA)
Here are the expected OPS, based on career averages, out of the possible CF and RF combinations:
Rowand/Victorino: .773 OPS
Cameron/Victorino: .764
Victorino/(Werth+Jenkins): .787*
* Because Jenkins will face RHP, and batters see RHP about 3 times
more than LHP, I weighted Jenkins and Werth’s OPS to reflect this. I
assumed that the two will combine for 625 at-bats (which is generous
considering how potent the Phillies’ lineup is and how adept they are
at getting on base).
Jenkins: Averages 1 base every 2.0 at-bats. With 75% of 625 at-bats,
that’s 469 at-bats, giving him about 235 total bases, and a slugging
percentage of .501.
Werth: Averages 1 base every 2.3 at-bats. With 25% of 625 at-bats,
that’s 156 at-bats, giving him about 68 total bases, and a slugging
percentage of .436.
Add ‘em together (.485 + .348 ) and you have an expected .833 OPS out of right field. *
Phew.
They previously traded center-fielder-in-waiting Michael
Bourn to Houston in the Brad Lidge deal. Plan C for the Phillies calls
for moving Shane Victorino, whose durability is in question, to center
and going with a platoon of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in right.
While the Phillies had some expectations of Bourn when he was
considered a top prospect in their farm system (not hard to be,
actually), he only showed Juan Pierre-esque ability: great speed,
ability to bunt, and above-average range in the outfield. They already
have a guy like that (but better) in Shane Victorino. Bourn simply
didn’t fit and was thusly expendable.
And Fraley has the plans all messed up! Bourn is Plan B? Any team
who has a Plan B as replacing a center fielder with decent defense and
some power potential with a slap-hitter is clearly a team general-managed by Ned Colletti.
Shame on this guy also for not tiering the Plan B’s.
The Phillies will also learn what the White Sox now know. Rowand is harder to replace in the clubhouse than on the field.
Whenever sports journalists wax romantic on intangibles, the
cholesterol lining my arteries gets a little bit harder. But I should
know — intangibles have been tangiblized (hat tip to FJM).
Rowand is an NFL free safety masquerading as a center
fielder. He plays relentlessly, a style the Phillies privately feared
may shorten his career, and that rubs off on teammates. He is a leader
in the true sense of the word.
First, I don’t see how being akin to an NFL free safety makes you a
valuable baseball player. Then Gerry contradicts himself by saying the
Phillies didn’t like his balls-out style of play because it increases
his risk of injury and a “shortened career.”
Gerry, however, rebounds by saying that this career-shortening style of play is rubbing off on teammates! Hopefully not in the way it rubbed off on Chase Utley.
That is why the White Sox and the Phillies both wanted to
sign Rowand. They have seen first-hand how valuable he is to the
dynamic of a winning team.
Phillies players as or more important to the NL East pennant than
Rowand: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Brett
Myers, J.C. Romero (arguably).
I get it: take Rowand away and the Phillies don’t win the East. But
that can also be said of Russell Branyan, who was with the Phillies for
all of 9 at-bats, one of which won them a game in Washington. And the Phillies won the East by one game.
Seasons of catering to Barry Bonds turned their clubhouse
into a nest of apathy. Near the end of the season, manager Bruce Bochy
said the last-place club lacked “a warrior spirit.”
The king of the team lacking “a warrior spirit” put up an OPS+ 170
with a knee that gets regular fluid injections at age forty-two.
Forty-two. Save his injury-plagued 2005 season, Bonds has led the
National League in on-base percentage every season since 2001.
The Giants were bad last year because, aside from Bonds and Randy
Winn (barely), no one in the lineup was hitting at or above the league
average, which makes it easy to believe that they had the league’s
second-worst offense. They had a good, but not great starting rotation,
and a decent bullpen. Blaming Bonds for the Giants’ failures last
season (or in any season) is beyond reprehensible and downright
ignorant.
San Francisco may remain stuck in last in the demanding National League West, but the Giants will not go quietly.
Earlier in the article, Fraley contends that teams that have Aaron
Rowand win, and teams that lose him end up losing. Now Fraley says that
the Giants get Rowand… but they “may remain stuck in last”?
In explaining the signing, general manager Brian Sabean said
Rowand was “far and away a plus” in the areas of concern for the
Giants.
“His no-nonsense approach is known throughout the game,” Sabean said. “Including inside the clubhouse.”
So, the areas of concern for the Giants aren’t offense, starting
pitching, and the bullpen? It’s a no-nonsense approach? No wonder they
haven’t reached 77 wins in three seasons.
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
