Well here we are, just about three weeks out from the start of sixth Rugby World Cup. Expectations are high that the home team will win the thing, but that has only happened twice; 1987 (New Zealand) and 1995 (South Africa) so France will have to pull out something special...perhaps even more so depending on who they play and if they get there.
Let's have a look at the favourites going into the Cup and nut out some predictions.
Argentina - yes, I actually think they'll be a strong contender...if they can get through the group stage (they're with France and Ireland so one will miss out). I must say I don't know a heck of a lot about them, but I've heard that their flyhalf is very good and they beat Ireland (in Argentina) a month or so ago so they are in pretty decent form. Argentina generally have a good forward pack so they could be a great dark horse this time.
Australia - the only country to have won the RWC more than once, the Wallabies head into this one under a bit of a cloud. Their backline is very solid with Latham, Mortlock and Larkham spearheading the attack while the old stager, Gregan (and others), will want to bow out on a high note and they will have gained a fair bit of confidence after beating New Zealand in Melbourne...even though they did lose the return match in Wellington a few weeks later. However, the forward pack is still a big problem at scrum-time.
England - it's been a rather big fall from grace for the defending champs...but there are signs they are coming right in time (a strong showing in the six nations this year). The key will be the forwards and Wilkinson. If Jonny is fit and the forward pack can provide him enough time to get the ball onto his trusty left boot, I seriously think England could pull another Cup off...but if the forwards can't set up that platform (or if Jonny isn't playing well), they won't stand a chance in the latter stages of the tournament.
France - remember the Football WC in 1998? Yeah, that was held in France so I expect the hosts to be very strong. They played a couple warmup games against New Zealand (in NZ) and, for a third-string team (they didn't send their best team over...club matches were still being played), they didn't disgrace themselves and showed that you could actually break through the NZ defence. Now, with their top team back, I think most people have automatically put them into the semis...but they still have to get past both Argentina and Ireland in the group stage.
Ireland - a favourite of many people simply because of the funky Irish accent, but this time they go in as a favourite in their own right. Strong performances in the six nations over the last few years have put them on the radar as a real threat to take home the Cup. However, the players and fans alike will be waiting with baited breath for the news on Brian O'Driscoll and whether his jaw is broken or not after last weeks game. If he's out, I think Ireland can kiss their chances goodbye.
New Zealand - well, where do I start? They go into every match as favourites and more often than not come home with the result. But when WC time rolls around, the wheels tend to come off. The way the All Blacks have been playing the last three years have them as the clear favourite...but that was before 2007. Their form against the weakened French and the plucky Canadians was rusty, and it didn't get a whole lot better against South Africa and Australia in the Tri-nations either. A big question mark hangs over the midfield since the departure of Umaga and a lot of the players have had little game time this season so they are rather underdone. No one doubts the team has the talent...but so do Brazil in football and they don't always win the big games either.
South Africa - after the Super 14 was done and dusted, the Springboks were on top of their game. They monopolised the final (having two teams contest it) and all was well...until the squad for the Tri-nations got named. An extra player was called into the squad because the board felt that the selectors got it wrong by not picking this guy. Further grumbles have seen the coach be on the verge of being given the boot but, of course, to do so this close to the Cup would be stupid so they'll stick with him. I get the feeling that even if South Africa win it, the coach won't be there when the next season kicks off.
Wales - won the six nations a couple years ago...and that was about it really. When New Zealand toured at the end of 2005, many people talked up how the Welsh game would possibly be their biggest challenge. That wasn't the case as the All Blacks turned out a second-string team and still thumped them...but if you play with fire, you'll get burned eventually and Wales nearly pulled off a huge upset last WC by running England mighty close. I'd bracket them the same as Argentina; a good outside bet.
So there we go, the winner will come from one of those eight teams. My heart says Australia, my head says New Zealand...so go put your money on a France/South Africa final.
Tez - Hope you`re going to write more about the RWC ,especially when it gets going .
My favourite headline from four years ago "if you want to screw an aussie...use a jonny"!
And yes ,i`m a whinging pom!
Tez is a rare creature; an Australian who was living in New Zealand before moving to Canada. He's also a Civil Engineer who is hoping to spend his Monday to Friday sitting in front of a computer surfing the inter...uh, working hard for an Engineering Consultant or Contractor when he finds a job. His heart is torn between his two loves; F1 and NASCAR.
Due to his high interest in those, his blogs will likely focus on them with the occasional foray into sports that don't get much (if any) mention on this website. All blogs and/or comments will more than likely have his usual dollop of sarcasm and general Aussie spin on them.
Amazingly, he also managed to score 2 MiB nominations on consecutive days (August 5 & 6, 2007) after announcing he had been keeping track of them...he's considering hiding under his bed as a result.