I'm going to be away
from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the
blogger world. I appreciate everyone that commented on the various
divisions. What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments
from various fans.
I'm going to leave an
open question for people to comment on.
This is a very simple
question. What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it
comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the
greatest concern?
Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look
forward to reading the comments when I get back.
This is my second of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC East is probably the most competitive division headed into the 2008 season. The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Dallas Cowboys won 13 games and had the number one seed in the NFC. The Redskins won their last 4 games to make the playoffs as the final wildcard. Finally, the Eagles finished strong and were a very dangerous 8-8 team at the end of the season that did not qualify for the postseason. The only other division that has a claim to being as competitive as the NFC East would be the AFC South, which also had 3 teams qualify for the playoffs in 2007.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)Dallas Cowboys
07 Record: 13-3
Points Scored: 455 (2nd)
Points Allowed: 325 (13th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule:134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Dallas Cowboys had a very impressive start to their 2007 season. In their first 13 games they went 12-1 with their only loss being to the New England Patriots. In their first 12 games they outscored their opponents 395-248, or by an average of 12.25 points per game. After their 37-27 victory against 10-1 Green Bay they looked poised to be the NFC favorite to take on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, things didn’t go according to plan. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games and were outscored 60-77. Then the Cowboys were upset in the playoffs, by the eventual champion NY Giants, 21-17. It was a very disappointing end to a season that looked destined to end with a Super Bowl appearance.
The Cowboys had a load of talent on their roster in 2007. They sent a record 11 players to the Pro Bowl, 7 of which were starters. The number one strength on the Cowboys was the offensive line. 3 of their 7 Pro Bowl starters came from that unit, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode. With Tony Romo given plenty of time to throw the ball and the numerous great weapons they had on offense the Cowboys put up points with great ease. Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns in his first full year starting. Jason Witten had a career year at tight end with 96 catches for 1145 yards and 7 touchdowns. Terrell Owens had 81 catches for 1355 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marion Barber posted 975 rushing yards and 282 receiving yards to go along with his 12 touchdowns. Nick Folk made the Pro Bowl as the NFC Kicker.
What it adds up to is an offense that dominated the NFC. Furthermore, their only key loss on offense was Julius Jones, who signed with Seattle. The Cowboys have taken care of that loss. They added RB Felix Jones in the first round and TE Martellus Bennett to play opposite Witten in the second round.
The only need the Cowboys did not address this season was wide receiver. TO is still an elite NFL receiver, but he is going to be 35 years old. Terry Glenn was hurt until the final game of the season. He is going to be 34. Patrick Crayton had a solid year filling in for Glenn, but still has a ways to go.
It is obvious the Cowboys would be in trouble if TO missed significant time. Teams don’t have backups that can produce at the same level as him. He is an elite wide receiver. Still without him in the lineup they go from scary to below average at the receiver position. He must find a way to stay healthy and play as close to 16 games as possible, something he hasn’t done since 2001.
Weaknesses: The defense was the major issue with the Cowboys in 2007. The Cowboys had a great front 7. They were able to finish 6th in rushing yards allowed. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware was named a starter to the Pro Bowl. He had 14 sacks. That was another area the Cowboys excelled at, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks. They also did well forcing turnovers. The Cowboys finished 6th in the NFL with 19 picks. Ken Hamlin and Terrance Newman were chosen as Pro Bowl reserves. Both started for the Cowboys in their secondary.
What the Cowboys didn’t do is stop the pass very well. They finished 13th in the league in that regard. As a result of the yards they gave up in the passing game and the 19 interceptions that Tony Romo threw the Cowboys gave up 20.3 points per game, which ranked 13th. For all the great plays Tony Romo makes he needs to cut down on the interceptions if the Cowboys are going to be playing February football.
I’m not saying the Cowboys were horrible on defense. They did a lot of things well and their weaknesses are not that bad in the whole scheme of things. However, if the Cowboys want to reach their desired destination as Super Bowl Champions, they need to sure up those areas.
The Cowboys tried to do that this offseason. They made their second first round pick a corner in Michael Jenkins. They also traded for PacMan Jones. If he can stay out of trouble and gain reinstatement from the NFL, he should be able to help this team. The signing of Zach Thomas could be big as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice veteran presence in the middle of the Cowboy’s Defense.
Prediction: It is either the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. The Cowboys have made the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. As an organization, they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Combined with the talent they bring back and the new talent they acquired via 2 first round draft picks, Zach Thomas, and PacMan Jones; expectations will be through the roof. Chemistry will be a big issue in 2008. While the talent of the Cowboys is not questioned, how that talent will interact in the locker room still is. Also Tony Romo needs to cut down on his distractions off the field. There is nothing wrong with him using his celebrity to his advantage, but it shouldn’t be spilling onto the football field. He has to minimize those things as much as possible.
The Cowboys always have a brutal divisional schedule. They get 4 playoff games in the division and the Philadelphia Eagles who beat them at the end of last season in Dallas. Their out of conference schedule appears to be a little tougher than 2007. While the Patriots and Packers were very tough, those were the only two-playoff teams they faced outside the division. This year they get Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is difficult to say if those teams will be as good in 2008 as they were a year ago. Pittsburgh and Cleveland also provide some competitive games. I think the Cowboys will have roughly the same record as they did in 2007, but I don’t expect them to jump out to the 12-1 start they did a year ago. If the Cowboys can cut down on their turnovers and stop the pass better in 2008, there is no reason this team will not finish as the NFC’s number one seed for the second year in a row.
2008 Strength of Schedule:133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the division since 2000. The Eagles have won the division 5 times and made the playoffs 6 times. Prior to 2007 the Eagles had missed the playoffs only once, which was in 2005 during the season of the TO circus.
However, last season the Eagles finished in last place in the NFC East and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Still the Eagles had a number of good things working for them. Most last place teams finish 4-12, not 8-8. The Eagles finished the season strong and had it not been for a 3 game losing streak to end November and begin December the Eagles could have made the playoffs.
On offense, Brian Westbrook quietly had a 2,104 all-purpose yard season. He also scored 12 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback was coming off a serious knee injury in 2006 and the Eagles did not have a dominant receiving core; Westbrook should be applauded for his productivity in 2007. He is the most complete running back in the NFL not name LT.
Donovan McNabb did fairly well coming back from knee surgery. He started 14 games and had 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to go with his 89.9 QB rating. Kevin Curtis and McNabb had good chemistry at times. Curtis was able to finish with 1,110 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.
However, as usual the main strength of the Eagles was their defense. Under Jimmy Johnson the Eagles have been a mainstay in the top rankings of the NFL’s defenses. The Eagles 300 points allowed ranked 9th in the NFL. They also ranked 10th in yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. Trent Cole registered 12.5 sacks.
Weaknesses: The Eagles had 3 main weaknesses in 2007. The first was a lack of quality playmakers. Other than Brian Westbrook, there is no one on the Eagles that keeps defensive coordinators up into all hours of the night game planning.
Some will point to Kevin Curtis and suggest that he has the potential to be a number one receiver as evidenced by his 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is blindly looking at stats and not looking at how they were obtained. In week 3 Curtis had the game of his life. He had 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means in the other 15 games he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and 1 touchdown every 5 games. That just is not acceptable from a number one receiver. Reggie Brown also regressed in 2007. He went from 8 touchdowns in 2006 to 4 in 2007 and his yards dropped from 816 to 780. He did not have the breakout year he was hoping for. The Eagles did add DeShaun Jackson to provide depth in the return game and at the 3rd receiver spot. However, they were not able to obtain that impact wide receiver this offseason.
The second problem was their return team. The fumbles they had in punt return game against Green Bay alone cost them that game. They needed to find a quality return man as Westbrook is to valuable to risk injury at that position. Jackson should be an immediate impact in that regard.
The final weakness was in the secondary. The Eagles ranked 18th in yards allowed and their defense finished tied for last in the NFL in interceptions with just 11. Part of that was due to the rash of injuries they suffered in their secondary at the beginning of the season. That was the motivation for landing the prize of the 2008 free agency period in Samuel. He is a great playmaker that should fit into the Eagles secondary. If Brown, Shepherd, and Dawkins can stay healthy the Eagles have the potential to make a lot more plays in the secondary. It will also give Jimmy Johnson more flexibility to blitz knowing he has the secondary to cover the receivers in one-on-one coverage. That should be a big boost for the Eagles in their team sack numbers.
Prediction: The problem with picking the Eagles to do anything is you never know if Donovan McNabb is going to play a whole season. 2004 is the last season he stayed healthy. Since then he has missed 15 of a possible 48 games with injury. If he is not able to play 13-16 games it is difficult to imagine that the Eagles have the necessary parts in place to survive in a brutal NFC East.
Regardless, you can always count on Andy Reid and Jimmy Johnson to keep the Eagles ship steady and that starts with their strong defense. I don’t see McNabb returning to his 2004 numbers. I don’t believe the Eagles have the offensive weapons in place to do so. However, they don’t need him to do that. If he could just get back to his 2000 and 2001 production when he threw in the low 3,000 yard range and low 20 touchdown range the Eagles should be in great shape, given the emergence of Brian Westbrook as an elite NFL playmaker and a defense that is capable of stopping people. Donovan McNabb completing passes and taking care of the ball is enough for this team to win. That is something he is very good at as his interceptions per attempt is one of the best in NFL history. He started to look more like his old self at the end of the season.
Last year was expected, as he was coming off a serious ACL tear. Now that he is one year removed, he should be able to relax more, play with more confidence, and take the Eagles back to the playoffs. While I don’t believe they have enough offensive weapons to win the division, I would think that 10 wins are well within their reach.
Philadelphia Eagle’s Record: 10-6 – NFC East 2nd Place; NFC #5 Seed
3)New York Giants
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 373 (14th)
Points Allowed: 351 (17th)
Playoff Result: Won Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule: 133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The NY Giants were the most unlikely of Super Bowl Champions. At 10-6 they were the 5th seed in the NFC and were faced with having to win 4 games away from home. They had lost 2 of their final 3 games of the season, but seem to gain momentum with their strong performance against the Patriots in the season finale. Still #5 seeds are not supposed to win Super Bowls.
However, the Giants had gone 7-1 in the regular season on the road, losing their only road game in the opener. The NY Giants rode that road dominance to 11 straight road victories and the Super Bowl trophy.
The strength of the New York Giants is their front 4 on defense. Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Fred Robbins form one of the best defensive front fours in the entire NFL. The NY Giants generated to most pressure on the quarterback in 2007 generating an amazing 53 sacks.
At the beginning of the season the linebackers and secondary could not cover anyone. As the season progressed, the Giants got better in that regard. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster became much better at covering the pass in the second half of the season. While the Giants did lose Gibril Wilson to the Raiders in free agency, they also drafted Kenny Phillips to come into the organization and compete for the starting safety spot.
The linebacker spot is the unit on defense with the most questions. Pierce is still a strong middle linebacker and Mathias Kiwanuka should be ready for the start of the season. He was injured toward the end of the 2007 regular season. This is a unit that did not begin to gel until later in the season, but once everything came together the defense was able to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl title. Mitchell and Torbor were loss to free agency, so they will have to replace them in 2008.
On offense, the strength of the team was their running game. The NY Giants finished 4th in the NFL with a host of running backs. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns all contributed at times in 2007.
Eli Manning had a very average regular season. He had a 73.9 rating and 20 interceptions to go with his 3,336 yards passing and 23 touchdown throws. But was able to put everything together and lead his team to the Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress is a fantastic wide receiver and had 12 touchdown catches. Jeremy Shockey is a good tight end, but was the subject of trade rumors this offseason after the NY Giants offense didn’t miss a beat in the wake of his injury. He is still very talented and will help an offense that features Toomer, Smith, Tyree, and rookie Mario Manningham.
Weaknesses: The NY Giants have a couple of big question marks headed into the season. 1) Which Eli Manning is going to show up in 2008? The one that killed his team with a poor completion percentage and 20 interceptions or the one that started playing after the NY Giants lost to the Patriots in the season finale. If the Giants are going to excel in the regular season, Eli has to take care of the ball for an entire 16 game season. While I don’t expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, I don’t think he will return to his 2007 regular season numbers. I expect something in between the two. I would think that he would get 3,500 yards, 25 touchdown throws, and 12-15 interceptions.
The second question is whether Michael Strahan is going to retire or comeback for another season. Personally, I think he would be unwise to come back in 2008. He will be 37 in November and what better way to go out than win a Super Bowl in your final game. He is nowhere close to catching Bruce Smith for the NFL record in sacks and now that he is a champion he has nothing left to prove. Anything short of repeating would be a disappointing season.
If he doesn’t comeback, how is that going to affect the dynamics of the Giants front 4? Similar to the Packers who are losing Favre, there is a lot of talent in that front 7. However, because none of those players have played without Strahan, it is unclear whether or not the Giants defense will be as dominant without him. The Giants do not have a good record in recent years when he doesn’t play.
Prediction: The Giants are a difficult team to predict for 2008. They basically played 2 seasons in 2007. Week 1-15 where they turned the ball over too much and had problems stopping downfield passing offenses and Week 16 through the Super Bowl where they were difficult to move the ball against and took care of the ball. Regardless, they averaged 21.25 points per game in the postseason, so if anyone thinks this offense is going to evolve into the 2007 Patriots, I think they are going to be in shock. This is a team that is going to run the ball, take their shots downfield, and rely on their defense to win games. I think as their younger receivers develop, we may see them put a few more points on the board.
As I stated earlier, the big key is going to be the decision of Michael Strahan and whether or not he wants to return in 2008. If he does they will be a formidable opponent and will challenge the Cowboys for the division. If he doesn’t they still will be very good, but probably in the running for the final playoff spot. I don’t think he is going to comeback, and therefore I am predicting about the same record in 2008 and the #6 seed for the defending champions.
NY Giants Record:9-7 – NFC East 3rd Place; NFC #6 seed
4)Washington Redskins
07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: In 2007 the Redskins looked like a ship that was sinking fast. After a 5-3 start to the season, they lost 4 games in a row and were sitting at 5-7. Sean Taylor was tragically shot dead in his home. When the Redskins lost to the Bills largely on a timeout mishap that gave the Bills a field goal that was 15 yards closer to win the game the season looked to be lost. However, the Redskins won their last 4 games of the season guided by the veteran backup Todd Collins, they were able to sneak into the playoffs as the # 6 seed before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in what would be Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibb’s last game.
Jim Zorn is inheriting a strong cast of players. Clinton Portis was able to stay relatively healthy in 2007 and rushed for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jason Campbell was able to make good strides, despite not having much help at the receiver position. Todd Collins is a solid backup.
On defense the Redskins finished 4th against the run and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Their front 7 set the tempo for this defense. Andre Carter had 10.5 sacks.
The secondary was fairly average. LaRon Landry looks like the real deal at safety and Rodgers, Springs, and Smoot are solid corners. The Redskins ranked 16th in passing yards allowed. Some games they were brilliant, such as Tampa Bay and Detroit when they allowed less than 100 yards passing. Other games like the road games against Dallas and New England they allowed way to many yards. The Redskins will have to find a way to replace Sean Taylor in their secondary. While I hate to talk Xs and Os when there was such a human tragedy involved, the fact still remains that the Redskins were a much tougher pass defense when he was starting. Replacing a player that was as talented as he was is difficult.
Weaknesses: The Redskins really struggled to move the ball threw the air. Part of that was Jason Campbell entering his first year as the full time starter. Anytime a team puts a young quarterback in the line up there are going to be up’s and downs. However, the fact remains that he had one touchdown pass or less in 10 of his 13 starts. That number has to improve.
A lot of that has to be blamed on the receivers. Portis had 11 touchdown runs and tight end Chris Cooley caught 8 touchdowns. However, no receiver caught a touchdown until James Thrash did in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is unacceptable. The Redskins overhauled the receiver position this offseason by drafting Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas in the 2nd round. I really liked the draft approach by the Redskins to get younger and bigger at wide receiver. Both are bigger receivers and should be better targets in the redzone.
Still, rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first year. While Randy Moss exploded into the league in Year 1, even great receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne took a few years to blossom. If this unit is going to be viable in 2008, Santana Moss must step up to the plate. The Redskins have to score more than 334 points playing in a division with Dallas, New York Giants, and Philly.
Prediction: The Redskins are in the unfortunate position of being in a very tough division. Jason Campbell is a nice quarterback that in a division like the NFC North would be in the running for the best quarterback in the division or in the AFC East would be in the running for best quarterback in the division not named Tom Brady. Here he is clearly the 4th quarterback in this division. Portis may be the 3rd best back in the division. Cooley made the Pro Bowl and isn’t even the best tight end in the division. The Redskins still lack the players at the skill positions to score enough points on a consistent basis to win the tough games they will have to play in the division. I like the moves they made in the draft and graded them very high. Still, those players will take a couple years to develop.
The schedule doesn’t set up as nice for the Redskins in 2008. In addition to the division, they have to travel to Seattle and play Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home. New Orleans is going to be a tough game. When you combine that with the 6 games they play in the division and I see them taking a step back in 2008.
Washington Redskin’s Record:7-9 – NFC East 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”
‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”
On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."
We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road. Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks. Most will not live up to expectations. Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams. Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes.
We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed. None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action. It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust. Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players. It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.
Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now? Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers. Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player. If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.
Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft. I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008. I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names. I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super. However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5. 22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.
The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there. Both were selected in the 3rd round.
The position I struck out on was wide receiver. I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round. Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round. That was brutal.
Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B. By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.
5 questions
1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right. Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons. Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007. He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself. They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball. He was the player that could most help them do that. By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.
The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting. With these guys you don’t. The draft can be very unforgiving. Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss. They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver.
However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams. The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen. I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired. This was a good gamble. The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own. This may end up going down as a win-win trade.
2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer. Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong.
Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick. If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.
This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy. It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta. It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them. They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.
With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players. While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.
3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long? Absolutely. Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later. Both players were safe picks. I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft. Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling. Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling. There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round. There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10.
By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one. If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.
4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure. This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product. The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition. There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi. Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois. The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school. The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him. Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.
The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty. While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft. I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round. If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble. If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department. At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round. Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback. If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.
5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy. Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now. He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt. Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.
Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing. If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend. The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later. Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer.
Brohm fills two needs. First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them. From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense. Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history. That is not a good sign.
The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out. If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games. If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future. The value was good and the pick made sense. Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.
5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.
1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen. If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too. That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team. While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.
Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams. The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season. It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith. At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line. You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends.
The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick. It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player.
The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft. While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board. He should substantially upgrade their defensive line. Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement. Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round. He should help improve the secondary.
Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2. Jamal Charles could be a quality running back. Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft. I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.
The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota. If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road. This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.
2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year. Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007. Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10. Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down. They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State. He is a bigger receiver. Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end. Finally, they added Malcom Kelly. Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout. Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.
On the second day they added a lot of depth. Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly. Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle. They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner. This was a major need as well.
The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position. Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone. The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone. When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot.
Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round. They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense. If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.
3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft. The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long. Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007. Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick. That was good value.
In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick. He should help on their defensive line. Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.
The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks. On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs. Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round. He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.
While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year. They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle. The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL. Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line. If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard.
Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off. Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength. If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment. Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round. Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft. I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick
This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad. In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft. They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery. He may move to receiver.
They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development. Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.
5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick. I had him rated slightly higher than Jones. However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber. The pick makes sense in that respect.
Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick. That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up. Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett.
The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names. The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round. They have excellent potential to do that. Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3. With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.
5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.
1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver. I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade. Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game. White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.
Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards. They have to find a way to upgrade that position. Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan. While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver. The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California. I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind. William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy. That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.
Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft. The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys. Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson. Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks. I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be.
I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs. I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points. The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves. The Chargers have a lot of weapons. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace. Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year.
Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft. In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.
2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out. It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter. However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect. I thought this was a substantial reach. Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell. That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value.
Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.”
I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round. The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith. That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line.
I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back. While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect. This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City.
3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds. Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion. But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round?
Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized. A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner. I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point. The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.
Then they drafted Justin King on day two. He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver. All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that. With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.
4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9. I thought he would slip later into the first round. But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?
The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into. Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ. It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.
Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson. While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that. Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.
Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him. Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season. While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2.
The Bengals did okay in the later rounds. Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver. If he can stay healthy he could contribute. Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise. He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence. At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp.
While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out. If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft. I don’t think they did much after that. I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008. Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.
5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out? I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots. I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft.
I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans. But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress. He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.
I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10. Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft. Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round. I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round. I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo. All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.
Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round. Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions. Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly. When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.
The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years. Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right. They selected linebacker depth and special teams help. Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell.
Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo. I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson. You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft. That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.
That is my draft recap. Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May. Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.
The unveiling of the NFL schedule is the first point in the NFL off season where you can begin to look forward to next year. After the NFL Draft you can start to fully evaluate the schedule and the 2008 season in general.
While I have looked at the schedules and have some opinions as to which teams have the most difficult road, I am going to save those judgments for after the NFL draft. I still want to see how the NFL draft plays out before I render my final verdict.
What it isn’t too early to do is start looking at some of the marquee match ups in 2008. Based on the free agent signings and performances over the last couple seasons here are the 10 games that I circled on the NFL calendar as being more noteworthy than the rest. I did not rate divisional games, as we always look forward to those. These are the best of the Non-Divisional Match Ups.
Honorable Mention: New York Giants (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) - October 26, 2008: I didn't want leave the NFL Champion NY Giants off the list. However, they don' have that one game that I am looking forward to like the other 10 on my list that is out of division. The Browns and Seahawks are solid opponents. How they do against Minnesota this time around will be a good storyline. The only game I considered putting on the list was the Steelers Game. Seeing the Steelers occupy 4 other games on the list; I decided to make this game my Honorable Mention.
10) Chicago Bears (7-9) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)– September 07, 2008: A rematch of Super Bowl XLI. While the Bears failed to make the playoffs a year after making the Super Bowl, the Colts had another typical 12 plus win season in the Tony Dungy era. This game will mark the opening of Indianapolis’s new stadium. Brian Urlacher vs. Peyton Manning. If the Bears can return to their 2006 form in 2008 this has the making of an excellent opening game.
9) Washington Redskins (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-6)– November 23rd, 2008: This is a solid rematch of the NFL Wildcard Round. The Redskins have lost 2 consecutive playoff games in Seattle, 2005 and 2007. The 2007 playoff game was very intriguing. After Seattle raced out to a 13-0 lead, the Redskins scored 14 unanswered points to take the lead. Seattle went on to score the final 22 points of the game, including 2 defensive touchdowns to pull away 35-14. This is also the return of Seattle Offensive Coordinator Jim Zorn as Washington Head Coach. Seattle is always a difficult place to win, so if the Redskins are going to win they will have their work cut out for them.
8) San Diego Chargers (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) – November 16th, 2008: The Chargers and Steelers have had some memorable regular season games over the last couple seasons. The most memorable was the Monday Night Football game when the Steelers defeated the Chargers, 24-22, on a Jeff Reed 40-yard field goal in the final moments of the game. The teams mett again in 2006. The Chargers beat the Steelers 23-13 to drop the Steelers to 1-3 in The Chin’s final season. After taking the 2007 campaign off these two AFC powers go back at it in 2008 in what has the makings of a terrific game.
7) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at New England Patriots (16-0)– November 30th, 2008: A match up that has resulted in a couple AFC Championship Games this decade resumes in New England for the second straight season. The Steelers were embarrassed 34-13 in New England in 2007 in a game that many people thought could be the Patriots first loss of the 2007 season. The Steelers will get an opportunity to show if their defense can stop Brady, Moss, and company.
6) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) at Green Bay Packers (13-3)- September 21, 2008: A rematch of the NFC’s two best regular season teams in 2007. The two met in a highly publicized NFL Network Showdown as 10-1 heavyweights. Brett Favre did not come out of the gate strong and was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter. Rodgers stepped into the game down 27-10. He went 18 of 26 for 201 yards and one touchdown and brought the Packers back to down 27-24, before ultimately losing 37-27. This year Rodgers will be the starter and the Cowboys will be coming to Green Bay. This will be the first playoff team for the Packers in 2008 after they open up against division rivals Minnesota and at Detroit. It will be interesting to see how the Packers fare against a competitive team without long time quarterback Brett Favre.
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) - October 5th, 2008: A rematch of the best Wild Card Round game of the 2007 playoffs. The Jaguars became the first team in the history of the NFL to win two times in the same season in Pittsburgh. Both games were exciting to the end. The first game saw the Jaguars take a 22-7 lead into the 4th quarter. Roethlisberger threw two 4th quarter touchdowns and a two point conversion tied the game. Fred Taylor scored the go ahead touchdown on a 12-yard run to put the Jags ahead for good. In the playoff game, the Steelers again feel behind 28-10 after 3 quarters. They came alive in the 4th scoring 19 unanswered points to take a 29-28 lead. David Garrard had a 40 yard plus run on 4th down late in the game to set up the winning field goal. If this year’s rematch comes even close to those two games the NFL world is in for a treat.
4) New England Patriots (16-0) at San Diego Chargers (11-5) – October 12th, 2008: You could flip 3 and 4 around if you want. I think the Colts and Chargers games were more entertaining last season, and therefore put it at number 3. The Patriots have had the Chargers number. The Chargers lost a heartbreaking 2006 Divisional Round game 24-21 in Sand Diego. The Chargers had an 8 point 4th quarter lead, but could not hold on. Kaeding missed a 50 plus yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT. In 2007 the Patriots blew the Chargers off the field before they knew what happened. The Patriots led 24-0 at halftime and won 38-14. In the 2007 AFC Championship the Chargers kept the game competitive, but couldn’t break into the endzone. The Chargers 4 field goals came up short, 21-12. This is the game the Chargers hope they can finally break through.
3) Indianapolis Colts (13-3) at San Diego Chargers (11-5)– November 23, 2008: Another rematch of playoff teams that met in both the regular season and playoffs. The first regular season game saw the Chargers force 6 Peyton Manning interceptions and the Chargers race out to a 23-0 lead in San Diego. The Colts scored 21 straight points and still had a chance to win the game, but Adam Vinatieri missed a chip shot that sealed the Colt’s fate. In the Divisional Round rematch in Indy, the Colts lost 28-24, despite the fact that Rivers, LT, and Gates missed significant time in the second half with injuries. These two have played very entertaining games the last few seasons and nothing should be different in 2008.
2) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)- Dec. 7th, 2008: This is always a special game. The Steelers and Cowboys have met 3 times in the Super Bowl, with the Steelers winning in Super Bowls X & XIII. The Cowboys won Super Bowl XXX. Because they play in different conferences, the rivals meet only once every 4 years. That is why I have it rated higher than their regular season record and postseason record in 2007 would indicate. Big Ben and Romo are two young quarterbacks that are coming off 30 touchdown pass seasons. TO returning to Pennsylvania is an interesting storyline, even if it isn’t Philadelphia. The two teams should be fighting for playoff position in this December contest. It should be a very intriguing game between two teams that we don’t see play each other that much.
1) New England Patriots (16-0) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)– November 2nd, 2008: As long as Tom Brady is in a Patriot uniform and Peyton Manning is pitching products in his Colts gear this will continue to be the Main Event. Both quarterbacks are future first ballot Hall of Famers. Both play on the teams that have experienced the most success in the 2000 decade. There is mutual respect and dislike for one another on both sides. Last year’s game saw 9-0 Patriots square off against the 8-0 Colts. This year they meet in a Week 9 showdown as well. Every game these two play seems to come down to the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.
Those are the 10 games that stood out on the schedule to me when the schedule was released. As we all know it probably won't turn out that way. Few could have predicted the 10-1 Cowboys would meet the 10-1 Packers last year. What looks good in April can be pretty boring come October and November. Furthermore, I’m sure you could find a series of other games depending on your allegiance. Finally, my list doesn’t even include the intriguing divisional match ups. What that adds up to is another exciting year of NFL football.
My plan is to have a draft recap up after the April 26th and 27th NFL Draft. Shortly thereafter I will look at the big winners and losers of the NFL schedule. While I defiantly have some opinions on that, I want to hold off on that until I see if there are any other big trades or moves during the draft. My goal is to start doing my division by division previews beginning in May. This blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com is the place to keep up to date on all the NFL happenings.
What is the game you are most looking forward to in 2008? Do you think I identified the correct games or did I overlook something? I look forward to reading your comments.
With the NFL being on the eve of the free agency signing period, fans are gearing up for a quick fix. I thought I would explore the history of the free agency period and see what makes the top teams the top teams.
Before I get to that I want to remind people that Dr X and I have been writing prescriptions for all 32 teams. This is our view on what areas each team needs to improve in if they want to have a more successful 2008. The final prescription for the top 8 teams in the NFL last season was posted today. If you want to check those out they can be viewed at:
One of the things that NFL fans are consistently guilty of is hoping that their team makes a big splash in free agency or in the first round of the NFL draft. Now that the 2007 season has ended fans begin the countdown for when free agency officially begins. There are some big names to be had, most notably: Assante Samuel, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Lance Briggs, and Corey Williams.
Furthermore with Zach Thomas, Alge Crumpler, and other cap casualties being released there is a chance for teams to make quite a splash in free agency. Dallas has already done that by signing Zach Thomas. But is that a good idea? Is it better to have a Daniel Snyder or Jerry Jones mentality and buy the best players that money can buy or is it better to have a more conservative approach like Ted Thompson and stay clear of the dangerous waters of free agency?
I am a firm believer that the best way to improve your team is to invest a lot of money in your scouting department and draft as many good players as you can. The NFL draft is the most important part of building an NFL team. Draft picks are to be treated like gold, even the 7th round picks.
While many people tune out after the first round there is a lot of talent to be had later in the draft. After the draft is also essential when the unsigned free agent rookie class is signed. I know people get sick of hearing that every year and would rather concentrate on the big names that create dreams of instant Super Bowls. But it really is true.
To demonstrate that I decided to make a starting team that consisted of 2 backs and 2 receivers that plays a 3-4 defense. This list is some notable players selected after the 45th pick, or basically about halfway through the second round that played on an NFL roster in 2007. This is not the best list of players selected after the 45th pick. I tried to give deference to players that were selected in the lower rounds or were undrafted to demonstrate the value that is available in that part of the draft.
S – Rodney Harrison (Western Illinois, 1994 5th Round, 145th Pick)
S - Antoine Bethea (Howard University, 2006 6th Round, 207th Pick)
P – Shayne Lechler (Texas A & M, 2000 5th Round, 142nd Pick)
I think it is pretty easy to see that while there are a lot of sexy names in the top 10 picks that teams who do their homework are nicely rewarded for having done so. While you could put together a pretty impressive roster of top 10 picks over the last 15 years, this team would definitely hold its own against that team.
It has been 15 years since the league implemented their current free agency system to start the 1993 season. I decided to look at who have been the most successful teams in the NFL since 1993 in terms of W-L record. These are the 7 franchises that stood out:
Green Bay Packers: 152 wins – 88 Losses; 1 Super Bowl Trophy
New England Patriots: 150 wins – 90 Losses; 3 Super Bowl Trophies
These 7 teams account for 10 of the 15 Lombardi Trophies won in the Free Agency Era. With the exception of the Eagles and Colts the others have appeared in multiple Super Bowls. They have combined to make 29 Conference Championship appearances. They have had the most regular season success combining to win 59.5 % of their games or an average of 9.5 per season. So what do these teams do differently than the other franchises? Why have they been so successful year after year where other teams search for the formula year after year to no avail?
Coaching / Front Office Consistency: These teams for the most part have not been changing head coaches every couple seasons. New England has had two Hall of Fame Coaches for 11 of those 15 years in Red Riding Hood and The Tuna. The Colts have had Dungy and Mora for 10 of those 15 seasons. Pittsburgh had The Chin for 14 of the 15 seasons. Shanahan has been with Denver since 1998. Reid has been in Philly since 1999. Holmgren and Sherman combined for 12 of the 15 seasons in Green Bay. The only team that had a lot of turnover in the Head Coaching Department was the Dallas Cowboys who have had Johnson, Switzer, Gailey, Campo, Parcells, and Phillips with nobody coaching more than 4 years. However, Jerry Jones has been their all 15 years of the free agency period, which is important because he is for all intensive purposes the GM for the Cowboys. Ron Wolf, Bob Kraft, Dan Rooney, and Pat Bowlin Bill Polian, and Jeffrey Lurie have all been the faces of the ownership or front office for the majority of that time. Having consistency in your head coaching, front office, and ownership is imperative for continued success.
Drafted or Developed Hall of Fame QB: Quarterback is the most important position on the team. Therefore, I don’t think it is any coincidence that some of the best signal callers in the NFL have played on these teams during this span. Favre has played all 15 years in the free agency era for the Packers. He hasn’t missed a single game. Manning has been with the Colts every game since 1998. Bledsoe and Brady have been the signal callers in New England throughout this streak. Denver had Elway for their most successful years in the run. Philly has had McNabb since 1999. Aikman had the most wins in the 90s all of which were for the Cowboys. The only team that hasn’t had a consistent signal caller during the streak is the Steelers. However, they have had a top 10 scoring defense 11 of the 15 years of the Free Agency Period. The one thing all these teams have in common is they drafted their QBs or developed him. Aikman, Big Ben, Bledsoe, Brady, Elway, and McNabb were all drafted by the teams they would eventually star for. Favre played one year in Atlanta before being traded to the Packers and developed by Holmgren. It is imperative that if you want to be a successful franchise that you draft your signal caller and develop him. Rarely is the answer to the quarterbacking dilemma going to be found by signing a big name in free agency.
Great Late Round Draft Picks: All these teams are great at finding talent in the draft where other teams are consistently sleeping on the job. Take Indianapolis. They drafted their entire offense. The Colts drafted Manning, Harrison, Addai, Gonzalez, Wayne, and Clark in the first round. They didn’t buy Manning’s offense in free agency. They also have many key contributors not found in the first round. Sanders and Bethea were both selected to the Pro Bowl and neither was a first round pick. Ted Thompson took the Packers from 4-12 to 13-3 in just 2 seasons by rebuilding the team through the draft. He got rid of older players like Rivera, Wahle, Sharper, Longwell, and Green. He replaced them with Hawk, Jennings, Jones, and Crosby, Collins, and Bigsby. All were all selected in the draft the last couple seasons or signed as undrafted free agents. His biggest trade was for Ryan Grant to start the season for a 6th round pick. The Patriots are great at selecting low round players. They refuse to overpay for over the hill talent. Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinest, Deion Branch, Adam Vinatieri , and Ty Law were all let go in favor of younger or less expensive players. The Broncos are notorious for finding running backs late in the draft, most notably 6th round pick Terrell Davis. The Eagles found their best offensive weapon in Westbrook at the end of the 3rd round. Dallas built their dynasty on the Walker trade in 1989 and the draft picks that came with that. Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Allen, Williams, and the majority of their roster were the result of solid drafts in April.
Conservative Free Agency / Trades: All of the teams have signed some free agents. The Packers signed the biggest of them all in Reggie White. Thompson spent a great deal of money to bring in Charles Woodson. The Patriots upgraded their offense by trading a 4th round pick for Randy Moss. They also signed Thomas to a huge deal. The Eagles traded for TO and signed Kearse to big deal in an attempt to win a ring. Denver traded Clinton Portis to the Redskins to bring in Bailey and sent Tatum Bell to Detroit for Dre Bly. A number of their defensive players were acquired in trades or free agency on their 2 Super Bowl teams. However, other than Dallas you rarely see these teams top the list in terms of free agency dollars spent. Most of the teams try to sign one or possibly two impact players and rely on late free agent signings and good drafts to upgrade their rosters. Also remember that despite Dallas being on this list most of those wins were the result of the Jimmy Johnson draft class. While the Cowboys have been big spenders in free agency in recent years they have 0 playoff wins since 1996 to show for it. Their recent resurgence was in large part due to Bill Parcells and the good work the Parcells regime did in the draft.
The fact is that every year there are teams that try to throw a lot of dollars at their problems. The results haven’t been very good. We know all the teams that have tried. The Saints trading a draft for Ricky Williams. Carolina giving up 2 first round picks for Sean Gilbert. The Redskins going older with Prime Time and Bruce Smith. But here is the classic example in the Free Agency era.
2006 Washington Redskins - The Redskins are annually among the NFL’s biggest spenders. After going 10-6 in 2005 and winning their second playoff game in the Snyder era, Snyder decided to go for it all just like he had in 2000. This particular season they went after wide receivers Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd, strong safety Adam Archuleta, and tight end Christian Fauria. The result was even worse this time. Portis was hurt in training camp and the Redskins limped to a 5-11 season and last place in the NFC East.
What 2006 did is strap the Redskins for salary cap space in 2007 and 2008. Lloyd and Archuleta are no longer with the team. Christian Fauria had 2 catches with Washington before leaving for Carolina. Randle El is the only player from that free agent class just 2 years later and may be cut to save salary cap space. That spending spree netted 5 wins.
I thought I would go back the last two seasons and check out past articles on the winners and losers of the free agency period. These were two of the best. On March 21, 2006 Jason Cole who is a sports writer for MSNBC picked the following winners and losers in the 2006 free agency class:
Panthers, Browns, Dolphins, & Redskins – The teams singed prominent players like Bentley, McGinest, Washington, Randle El, Lloyd, Culpepper, Archuleta, Lloyd, Kemoeatu, and Lewis. They also combined to go 23-41 with Carolina having the most success at 8-8. Meanwhile he named the Jets, Patriots, and Chargers the big losers of free agency. The Chargers were criticized for losing Brees, the Patriots for losing Abraham and some quality offensive lineman, and the Patriots for losing McGinest, Givens, and Vinatieri. They combined to go 36-12 and all three teams made the playoffs.
The other was John Clayton’s free agency report for ESPN for the 2007 season. His 5 free agency winners (San Fran, New England, Miami, Tampa, and Denver) didn’t fare too well. Only New England won more than 10 games. Only New England and Tampa made the playoffs. Meanwhile his 5 losers (Ravens, Packers, Giants, Raiders, and Texans) had better overall results. While the Ravens and Raiders didn’t fare well the Texans finished 8-8 in the leagues toughest division. The Packers and Giants squared off in the NFC Championship Game with the Giants winning the Super Bowl thanks to their great draft class by first year GM Jerry Reese.
I’m not saying that John Clayton and Jason Cole are not solid NFL reporters. We have all made mistakes when predicting things and I think the two of them would be the first to admit that the draft is much more important than the free agency period. People want to know who did well in free agency and who didn’t and their job is to report that information.
The problem that teams get into in free agency is that many teams try to sign good players without looking at the system they came from. Archuleta was a fine safety in St Louis but due to his lack of speed he needed to play in a Cover 2 scheme. The Redskins ignored that when signing him in 2006 and the result was a disaster. The same thing happened to the Saints with David in 2007. Fine cornerback in a Cover 2, not bump and run man to man. The result was a liability at the corner that gave up lots of big plays.
That is why New England was successful. They not only signed good players last offseason, but they signed players that fit well into the system they played in. Thomas was a great addition to the 3-4. Welker was an essential acquisition to take advantage of Moss double teams. The result was an improvement from 12-4 to 16-0 in the regular season.
Other teams ignore injuries or past trends. The Texans decided to sign a big name running back in Ahman Green last season. While Ahman Green had amassed 8,162 rushing yards, 2,833 receiving yards, 4.5 yards per rush, and 67 touchdowns in 7 years with Green Bay he was clearly in decline. He hadn’t averaged over 4.0 yards per carry since 2004 and hadn’t had double digit touchdowns or over 1200 yards rushing since 2003. He was clearly past his prime yet the Texans threw 4 years and 23 million at him. The gain was 43.3 yards per game rushing and 2 touchdowns while playing only 6 games in an injury-plagued season.
Meanwhile the Packers addressed running back by trading for Ryan Grant and the result was the most rushing yards in the NFL after Week 8 if you include the postseason. Nobody remembered who Green was after the Denver game. That trade was instrumental in securing a NFC Championship Game bid.
The Dolphins fell into a similar trap with Culpepper. Culpepper had a record-breaking season in 2004 when he had a 110.9 QB rating with 39 touchdowns and 11 picks. He also through for 4,717 passing yards. He also had Randy Moss. In 2005 he was injured for the season, but did manage to play 7 games. He was awful those 7 games. Without Moss he looked lost. He finished 2005 with a 72.0 QB rating, 223.4 yards per game, 6 touchdowns and 12 picks.
That didn’t discourage the Dolphins from trading a second round pick for Culpepper and taking on his large contract. Culpepper was never able to get healthy and struggled in his 4 games. He clearly had not recovered from his knee injury in Minnesota. He was released the following season. That move and the signing of Joey Porter did not produce the
