I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Steve McNair on a terrific 13 year NFL career with the Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens. Steve McNair was one of those guys that you respected even though he wasn’t on your team. He always gave 110% and played through a slew of injuries. He was a great ambassador for the Mississippi area when his home state was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina. He is someone the NFL will miss not only for his on the field play, but the great contributions that he had off the field.
Steve McNair came into the NFL as a Division I-AA Walter Payton Award winner. His nickname in college was Air-McNair, a name he earned for the wide open offense he ran at Alcorn State. In his senior season he threw for 4,863 yards and rushed for 936 yards. He also threw for 44 touchdowns. That prompted the Houston Oilers to select him 3rd in the 1995 NFL Draft.
After only playing in 4 games his rookie season and 9 games his second season learning behind Chris Chandler he was put into the starting lineup in 1997. From 1997 to 2003, McNair missed only nine of the possible 112 regular-season starts. Five of those misses were due to back surgery. Steve McNair developed a reputation of being able to play through injuries that most players would not dare try. He and Brett Favre were widely considered the two toughest quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Titans finished 8-8 in both 1997 and 1998. In 1999 the pieces finally started to come together for the Titans. Steve McNair was coming into his own as a NFL quarterback. Eddie George dominated the running game. Frank Wycheck was a Pro Bowl tight end. Derrick Mason was a dangerous return man that would come into his own the following year. The defense received the piece it was missing by drafting a Florida defensive end named Jevon “The Freak” Kearse. The Titans would finish 1999 13-3, but second in the division to the 14-2 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Thankfully for the Titans, the Jags two losses were to the Titans. After beating the Bills in the Music City Miracle and the Colts in a Divisional Round contest, the Titans would beat the Jaguars for the 3rd time that season and advance to the Super Bowl. They would lose to the St Louis Rams 23-16. In the closing seconds of the game McNair hit Andre Dyson who sprinted for the endzone. He was stopped 1-yard shy of the endzone and from potentially sending the game to overtime.
The Titans would build off that win in 2000 and go 13-3 with the best record in football. They were the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but were upset in the Divisional Round by the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens. After finishing 7-9 in 2001 they would bounce back to go 11-5 in 2002 and advance to the AFC Championship Game, where they would lose to the Oakland Raiders. In 2003 they finished 12-4 and Steve McNair shared his first and only MVP award with Peyton Manning. The Titans would win their first round game against Baltimore, but fell to eventual champion New England.
By 2004 the salary cap had started to catch up with the Titans. Forced to cut many of their high priced veteran starters the Titans crashed to 5-11 in 2004 and 4-12 in 2005. McNair started only 8 games in 2004 and 14 in 2005. By then the Titans wanted to move on and draft Vince Young. What followed was a messy parting of the ways, in which McNair was banned from the team facilities and had to sue the Titans. Eventually McNair won his lawsuit and the Titans and Ravens worked out a trade to send McNair to Baltimore.
In 2006 McNair led the Ravens to a 13-3 record and was again back in the playoffs. However, after earning a first round bye the Ravens would fall to the eventual champion Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round 15-6. Of McNair’s 5 playoff losses, 4 were to the eventual Super Bowl Champion and the other was to the 2002 Oakland Raiders, who were the runner up that season.
In 2007 McNair was not right the entire season. Unable to stay healthy he only appeared in 6 games. That was the primary factor that led to the announcement of his retirement. He finished his NFL Career 31,304 yards passing, 174 touchdowns to 119 interceptions and a career QB rating of 82.8. He also carried for 3,590 yards and 37 touchdowns, which are top 5 career numbers for a quarterback.
Now that Steve McNair has retired the question is going to come up as to whether or not he had a Hall of Fame career. While I think he was a very good quarterback that enjoyed a fine NFL career and should have absolutely no regrets, I don’t think he played at a high enough level to warrant induction into Canton. The reasons are as follows:
1) Lack of big regular season numbers – Supporters will look at his 20th career ranking in completions, 23rd in attempts, 28th in passing yards, 43rd in career touchdowns, and his 27th career quarterback rating and conclude that he was a Hall of Famer. You have to go deeper than that. First, he played his entire career in the pass friendly era of the late 1990s and 2000s. His numbers are comparable to Hall of Famers that played the majority or their entire career in the Dead Ball Era. Second, he finished in the top 10 in completions, attempts, and passing yards only twice. He was in the top 10 in passing touchdowns only 3 times.
People will point to his rushing numbers. That is one of the difficulties in evaluating quarterbacks. Some people value those rushing numbers more than others. My belief is that a quarterback’s primary job is to pass the ball and those are the numbers a quarterback should ultimately be judged upon. Until a rushing quarterback carries a team to multiple rings and redefines the quarterback position I am sticking to that theory. While the Titans won a lot of games in his tenure, he never accumulated the passing numbers that I believe are necessary for Hall of Fame induction.
2) Lack of Postseason Success in relation to the Regular Season Numbers – McNair went 5-5 in the postseason and did get his team to the Super Bowl once. While he did not play great in that game he did play well enough to have his team in that game until the last play. People will compare his career numbers to Troy Aikman and see that McNair outperformed him over the course of his career. The problem is that Aikman led the Cowboys to 3 Super Bowl rings in a 4 year period. Had Aikman appeared in one Super Bowl and lost, he wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame either. In my opinion, Steve McNair didn’t experience enough success in the postseason to make up for his low regular season numbers to make the Hall of Fame.
3) He didn’t have a sustained period as the best quarterback in the game – Early in his career he didn’t measure up to Troy Aikman, John Elway, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, or Steve Young. He didn’t measure up to Tom Brady, Brett Favre, or Peyton Manning later in his career. Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon both had points where they were better quarterbacks. Both also won MVP awards. Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb were better at points in their careers. The result is that while he did win the MVP in 2003, that 4 year stretch from 2000 to 2003 is the only time he was considered an upper echelon quarterback. He was a 3 time Pro Bowler in 2000, 2003, and 2005; meaning he never put together consecutive Pro Bowls. He was never a NFL All-Pro. He never had a season that left fans in awe like Marino in 1984, Farve in 1996, Warner in 1999, Culpepper in 2004, Manning in 2004, and Brady in 2007.
I believe the Hall of Fame is more about how long you were an elite quarterback than what kind of career numbers you were able to accumulate. I don’t think that Vinny Testaverde is worthy of Canton induction and he ranks in the top 6 in passing yards, touchdowns, attempts, and completions. I would definitely put McNair ahead of Vinny, because of the MVP award, rushing production, and the fact that McNair led his team to a Super Bowl appearance. I just wouldn’t put him in the Hall of Fame.
Again, congratulations to Steve McNair for a wonderful career. While I don’t believe it was a Hall of Fame career, that in no way should diminish his career accomplishments. He was an extremely tough player and played through injuries that a lot of guys would not have been able to. He gave the fans a lot of great moments over the years and always conducted himself with the utmost class. He was a great ambassador to the NFL both on and off the field. Most importantly, he was respected through out the NFL. If the league had more Steve McNairs it would be a better league for it.
In a matter of 60 minutes the Patriots went from being discussed among the Greatest Teams in NFL history to being discussed among the Greatest Teams to not win a Super Bowl ring. It is amazing that we are now having this discussion about a team that has known nothing but post season success the last 7 seasons. This is a discussion we would expect to have about Dan Marino’s Dolphins or Peyton Manning’s Colts, not Tom Brady and the invincible Patriots.
I have charted the Patriots the entire season. I ranked their 6-0 start and there 12-0 start. Both were in the top 5 since 1960. I saw no reason to talk about their 16-0 start as it was obviously the best in NFL history. Now we get to rank their historic demise and not their historic achievement. Where do the 2007 Patriots rank among the best single season teams not to win a title?
I decided to use the same criteria in determining the best teams not to win the Super Bowl as I do the best teams to win one. My test for whether a team is an all time dominant team is pretty simple. 1) Were they the best team in their conference for the Regular Season and win at least .750 of their games? 2) Did they win the Super Bowl? 3) Did they finish first in either scoring offense or defense? 4) They were in the top 5 in the other category? If the answer is yes to all four questions then they were an All Time Dominant Team. The 1962 Packers, 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers, 1984 49ers, 1985 Bears, 1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, 1996 Packers, and 1999 Rams all accomplished this feat. Furthermore the 1994 49ers were 1st in scoring offense and 6th in scoring defense finishing out of the top 5 by less than 10 points
I didn’t select multiple teams from a dynasty, but rather took the best one. I put the 1984 49ers, 1989 49ers, and 1994 49ers in the discussion seeing that even though it was the same franchise many of the key players were different. Those were my 10 best single season teams since 1960 heading into this weekend, but not necessarily in that order.
I think it is a strong set of criteria when differentiating the various Super Bowl winning clubs. While you can argue about the 1998 Broncos, 1993 Cowboys, and 2004 Patriots it takes a lot of the subjectivity out of the debate and includes most of the teams that everyone always talks about.
Therefore I did the same thing for the teams that almost made it. I took into account the regular season. While the 1994 Cowboys had a great team, they were the second seed in the NFC and lost to the favored 49ers at San Fran. That doesn’t make them a top 10 disappointment. To make this list you had to have the best record in your conference that season and win more than .750 of the regular season games. I also looked at scoring offense, scoring defense, margin of victory. All of the teams on this list had point differentials of over 10.0 points per game. All had scoring offenses and defenses that were both in the top 10 for that season. Here is my list of the top 10 teams that almost made history:
5 Honorable Mentions: 1967 Oakland Raiders, 1973 LA Rams, 1984 Miami Dolphins, 1990 Buffalo Bills, 2006 San Diego Chargers
10) 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars
W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 24.8 ppg (6th of 31) Points Allowed: 13.6 ppg (1st of 31) Point Differential: 11.2 (2nd of 31)
Summary: They could beat everyone but Tennessee that season. If you take out the two regular season losses to Tennessee they beat their other opponents by 14.8 points per game. They featured a dangerous running game, solid QB, strong receivers, and the best defense in terms of points allowed. They had previous experience having played in the AFC Championship Game in the 1996 season. They had suffered setbacks in the 1997 and 1998 playoffs. This was their best team and this was their time. When they beat Miami 62-7 in the divisional round a Super Bowl appearance seemed to be a formality, especially seeing the Titans needed a Music City Miracle to escape with a home win over Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. That was until the Jags lost to the Titans 33-14 in the AFC Championship Game for the 3rd time that season. The Jags would not win another playoff game until they beat Pittsburgh in 2007. The Titans would go on to lose a very close game to the Rams in the Super Bowl leaving some unfinished business at the 1 yard line.
9) 1967 LA Rams: W-L: 11-1-2 Points Scored: 28.4 ppg (1st of 16) Points Allowed: 14.4 ppg (1st of 16) Point Differential: 14.4 ppg (1st of 16)
Summary: This is a forgotten almost great team in NFL history. They finished the season first in points scored, first in points allowed, and first in point differential. That is a very hard feat to accomplish even if there were only 16 teams in the league. After suffering a loss to San Fran in Week 4 and tying Baltimore and Washington in consecutive weeks after that they went on an 8 game winning streak. This team featured the Fearsome Foursome, 3 of which were named All Pro. Roman Gabriel was a Pro Bowl QB. The offense featured 5 Pro Bowlers and Charley Cowan who was named All Pro, but was not selected to the Pro Bowl. Due to no Wild Cards the Rams didn’t even have to go up against the second best team in the NFL which was the Baltimore Colts. The Colts were 11-1-2 as well and finished second in Points Scored, Points Allowed, and Point Differential. Due to the NFL’s playoff rules the Rams had to travel to Green Bay for the first round of the playoffs. In the Lombardi era that was a death sentence. Despite losing only one game by a field goal and having beaten the Packers by 3 points just 14 days prior, the Rams were smoked by the 9-4-1 Packers 28-7 in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers would go on to win the Ice Bowl and Super Bowl II. While the Rams had some solid squads after 1967 they would not make the Super Bowl until the 1979 season years after these players were a distant memory.
8) 1983 Washington Redskins W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 33.8 (1st of 28) Points Allowed: 20.7 (11th of 28) Point Differential: 13.1 (1st of 28)
Summary: Expectations were sky high this season. Even though 1982 was a strike shortened season the 1982 Redskins still brought home the Lombardi Trophy. They had a very similar team in place for 1983. They set a then NFL record for points with 541 points. The offense featured Joe Theisman, John Riggins, Art Monk, and The Hogs. Their defense was not spectacular but got the job done. They lost 2 games by one point each and were riding an 11 game winning streak into the Super Bowl, which included a 51-7 destruction of the LA Rams. However, someone forgot to tell the Raiders they didn’t have a chance and Marcus Allen’s famous 74 yard touchdown run helped lead the Raiders to a 38-9 victory over the heavily favored Redskins. The 12-4 Raiders were a solid team, but no one expected the Redskins to crash and burn like this. The Redskins would not return to the big stage until the 1987 season and by then Theisman and Riggins were no longer on the team.
7) 2001 St Louis Rams
W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 31.4 ppg (1st of 31) Points Allowed: 17.1 ppg (7th of 31) Point Differential: 14.3 ppg (1st of 31)
Summary: This wasn’t as good as the Greatest Show on Turf Team that exploded onto the scene in 1999. While there offense still scored a lot of points they weren’t as good as 1999 mainly because they turned the ball over too much. Warner had 22 interceptions or one pick every 24.8 attempts as opposed to the 13 interceptions or 1 interception every 38.4 attempts he had in 1999. Marshall Faulk was still the most dangerous back in the league. Bruce and Holt were fantastic receivers. Lovie Smith had been brought in to improve the defense from the team that was among the worst in the league in 2000. The result was a team that forced a lot of turnovers and made a lot of big plays on both sides of the ball. No one gave the Patriots a chance to win the Super Bowl. Tom Brady was not the All-Pro he is today. The Rams lost the Super Bowl on a field goal 20-17. The Rams were never the same. Warner would throw only 4 touchdowns over the next two years before ushering in the Marc Bulger era. They have not been in the playoffs consistently since. The Patriots would begin their run of 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.
6) 1992 San Francisco 49ers W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 26.9 ppg (1st of 28) Points Allowed: 14.7 ppg (3rd of 28) Point Differential: 12.2 ppg (1st of 28)
Summary: The 49ers were adjusting to life after Joe. After finishing 28-4 in the regular season in 1989 and 1990 the 49ers had made the switch to Steve Young. Joe Montana would miss the better part of 2 seasons with injuries. Steve Young led the 1991 49ers to a 10-6 record, but they missed the playoffs. However, they finished 1991 as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. In 1992 they picked up where they left off in 1991. Steve Young was the MVP of the league and led an offense that featured Jerry Rice, Ricky Waters, John Taylor, and Brent Jones. The defense ranked 3rd in the league. This looked like a team headed for the Super Bowl. In the last game of the regular season the 49ers had everything wrapped up and decided to play Joe Montana in a meaningless second half. It was his first game for Montana since the 1990 Championship Game loss to the NY Giants. He went 15-21 for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 picks. Suddenly the MVP of the league was in a local media QB controversy with arguably the greatest QB of all time. The 49ers offense never really looked the same that season. They struggled to beat the 9-7 Washington Redskins 20-13 before bowing out to 13-3 Dallas 30-20. Steve Young played like a guy looking over his shoulder. To Dallas’s credit they went on to crush the Buffalo Bills 52-17 in the Super Bowl. It would propel Dallas to 3 Super Bowl titles in 4 seasons. This 49ers team may have been the victim of running into a buzz saw that they simply weren’t capable of competing with. Dallas was a great team. Joe Montana was traded to Kansas City the next season and Steve Young would eventually escape The Shadow and win the Super Bowl 2 seasons later. However this was a fantastic team that not only got caught up in the pressure of winning it all but with the pressure of having a legend sitting on the bench. It would have been interesting to see how those playoffs would have gone had Montana just not played a meaningless second half against the Lions.
5) 2005 Indianapolis Colts
W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 27.4 ppg (1st of 32) Points Allowed: 15.4 ppg (2nd of 32) Point Differential: 12.0 ppg (1st of 32)
Summary: This is the strangest team on the list. It was a team with two identities. Indy was coming off a season in which Peyton Manning had 49 touchdown passes. When the defense held 4 of their first 5 opponents to less than 10 points this team looked poised for greatness. However, the offense struggled in those games. Then the defense slipped but the offense kicked into high gear. They would start the season 13-0. Peyton Manning and the offense were still explosive. The defense looked better than any previous Manning team. The team had been battled tested in the playoffs having lost to New England in the AFC Championship Game 2 years prior. New England and Pittsburgh were both down this year. It appeared to be the Colt’s time. A couple things happened toward the end of the season. After losing to the Chargers 26-17 the Colts rested a lot of their players. It becomes the old debate. What is better, Momentum or Rest? They didn’t look very sharp in the Divisional Round against Pittsburgh. The scored only 3 points in the first 3 quarter of the game and lost 21-18 to a team they had beaten 26-7 just 5 games prior. The other thing that happened is that Tony Dungy’s son tragically committed suicide at the end of the season. This really put a damper on what should have been a terrific season. To the Colts credit the Steelers would go on to capture the Super Bowl. The Colts also bounced back in 2006 and were able to bring the Lombardi Trophy to Indianapolis. This was arguably the best team of the Peyton Manning era to date and unlike the 2007 version it was clearly the best team in the NFL. The fact that the 05 Colts didn’t even get a playoff win to show for this season was a very disappointing turn of events.
4) 1998 Minnesota Vikings W-L: 15-1 Points Scored: 34.7 ppg (1st of 30) Points Allowed: 18.5 ppg (6th of 30) Point Differential: 16.2 ppg (1st of 30)
Summary: This is where the list starts to get to be easy. You can argue about where a lot of the other teams rank. You can say that I should have put this team on the list or left this one off of it. To me these four are clearly the top ones on the list. I started with the 1998 Vikings because they had the worst defense of the top 4 teams, had the lowest point differential of the top 4 teams, and were the only one that didn’t qualify for the Super Bowl. The Cowboys, 49ers, and Packers had been the class of the NFC since 1992. While the Vikings had been good, they were never able to do anything in the playoffs. However one first round pick changed everything. The Vikings were probably the most feared offense prior to the 2007 Patriots. People will look at the Greatest Show on Turf. Others will look at the 83 Redskins. While those teams were great, they didn’t score 556 points in a season nor did they have Randy Moss at receiver. The rookie came in and turned the league into his own playground. He had a Thanksgiving game where he had only 3 catches but they went for 163 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chris Carter and Jake Reed were excellent receivers. Randall Cunningham enjoyed an unexpected rebirth. Robert Smith and Leroy Hoard combined for 1666 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns. Even though the Patriots scored more points, I believe this offense was much more balanced. On defense they were led by John Randle, Ed McDaniel, Dwayne Rudd, and Robert Griffin. While the defense did give up yards, they forced a lot of turnovers and were always playing with a 2 touchdown lead. The kicker was perfect on the season. It seemed this team had no weaknesses. The Vikings lost only one game on the season which was a 28-24 game at Tampa Bay. When the playoffs started the Vikings trashed the Cardinals 41-21. A Vikings vs. Broncos Super Bowl appeared to be in the works. However, the Falcons managed to keep the game close and when Gary Anderson missed his first field goal of the season the Falcons capitalized. They forced the game into overtime by scoring a touchdown and the Falcons would go on to beat the Vikings 30-27 in OT. While the Vikings would make the NFC Championship Game in 2000 they never got as close as they did in 1998. The Falcons would go on to be destroyed by the Broncos in the Super Bowl. They would not be relevant again until 2002 when they became the first road team to win a playoff game in Green Bay. That was with Michael Vick and mostly different players than the 1998 Falcons.
3) 1969 Minnesota Vikings W-L: 12-2 Points Scored: 27.1 ppg (1st of 16) Points Allowed: 9.5 ppg (1st of 16) Point Differential: 17.6 ppg (1st of 16)
Summary: This was hard. I couldn’t decide which team to put where. While the Colts had a slightly better record, the 1969 Vikings were 1st in scoring offense, defense, and point differential. They had scored 50 points on 3 different occasions in 1969, but also managed to hold their opponents under 10 points a game. The started and ended the season with a loss, but won 12 straight games in the middle. While Fran Tarkenton is the famous Viking QB from this era he had been traded to the NY Giants a few years earlier and had not yet returned to the Vikings. While they were 12th in passing yards they ranked 2nd in passing touchdowns. They were in the top 5 in rushing offense. The Purple People Eaters were as ferocious of a defensive front four as the league has ever seen. Alan Page and Carl Eller are both in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and Jim Marshall started 270 consecutive games for the Vikings. Bud Grant was the Head Coach. While the Vikings only beat the Rams 23-20 in the opening round of the playoffs they destroyed Cleveland 27-7. Then they played their worst game of the season and for the second straight year the NFL was upset in the Super Bowl by the AFL. The game was never close and the Chiefs dominated with a 23-7 victory. I think because the Vikings went on to be dominated in 3 more Super Bowls this team gets looked at a another Minnesota disappointment. While the Vikings also had a better QB and some great teams from 1973-76 when they lost those other 3 Super Bowls none of them were quite as statistically dominant as the 1969 team. This team had everything in place to be among the greatest champions in NFL history. Unfortunately for them they were not able to capitalize on the moment and turned the ball over too much to compete with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
2) 1968 Baltimore Colts W-L: 13-1 Points Scored: 28.7 ppg (2nd of 16) Points Allowed: 10.3 ppg (1st of 16) Point Differential: 18.4 ppg (1st of 16)
Summary: The Baltimore Colts had some very good teams in the Unitas era. They won back to back NFL Championships in 1958 and 1959. Their 1967 team may have been the best team in the history of the NFL to not qualify for the playoffs. However, this was by far their best product. I think people get too caught up in that the NFL had this false perception that they were better than the AFL. This team should have been favored to destroy the Jets whether that power struggle were present or not. They had a 7 game stretch where they posted 3 shutouts and allowed only 32 points. They scored 27 or more points in 10 of their 14 games. They also had 10 games where they allowed fewer than 10 points. 11 of their 13 regular season wins were by double digits. This was as dominant of a team as the NFL ever saw. After defeating Minnesota 24-14 in the opening playoff round they avenged their only loss to Cleveland in the NFL Championship game by defeating them 34-0. This team was ridiculously good. Although Johnny U is the quarterback people think of from the 60s Colts, Earl Morrall was playing most of the season for the injured Johnny Unitas. Morrall was an All-Pro. Tom Matte was the Pro Bowl running back. John Mackey and Willie Richardson were both All Pro Targets. The defense was littered with All Pros, most notably Billy Ray Smith Sr. and Mike Curits. Yet when the heavily favored Colts played the Jets they threw 4 interceptions and turned the ball over 5 times. The result was a Joe Namath guarantee, equality for the conferences, and a 16-7 loss. It is still arguably the greatest upset in Super Bowl history. The Colts switched conferences in 1970 and won the Super Bowl for the AFL. Many of these players were still on that team. However, nothing was as disappointing as losing the game that prevented them from joining the immortal.
1) 2007 New England Patriots W-L: 16-0 Points Scored: 36.8 ppg (1st of 32) Points Allowed: 17.1 ppg (4th of 32) Point Differential: 19.7 ppg (1st of 32)
Summary: I know that I talk about allowing things to shake out and not getting caught up in the moment. By putting them number one I am not saying that Super Bowl XLII was the greatest upset in the Super Bowl era. I still believe Super Bowl III was the biggest upset. I think the gap between the 1968 Jets and Colts heading into that game was greater than the gap between the 07 Giants and Patriots heading into their game. That is a different discussion. What I am saying is that I think the 2007 New England Patriots are the best team to not win a Super Bowl. I think you could put the 1968 Colts, 1969 Vikings, or the 1998 Vikings higher than the Patriots. There could be legitimate arguments for doing so. But considering everything that is in play I think the 2007 Patriots are the best team to not finish off their season with a title. Here are 8 reasons why:
1) Tom Brady – Nobody considers Joe Theisman, Randall Cunningham, Joe Kapp, or Earl Morrall to be among the greatest QBs of all time. Tom Brady is not only a First Ballot Hall of Fame QB, but enjoyed arguably had the best statistical season in the history of the NFL. 398 completions, 578 attempts, 68.9 completion percentage, 4806 yards, 50 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions. His interception total of 8 was lower than his yards per attempt of 8.3. He was ridiculously good this season. The quarterback is the face of the franchise and none of 10 teams on this list had a better QB.
2) Randy Moss – Randy Moss had arguably the best receiving season of the Super Bowl era. He had 98 catches for 1493 yards and an NFL record 23 touchdowns. No one since Jerry Rice’s 1987 season had had more than 18 touchdowns in a single season.
3) Bill Belichick – You are talking about a guy who had a 14-2 record as the coach of the Patriots in the playoffs since 2001. He has 3 Super Bowl rings. He was looking to join Chuck Noll as the only Head Coach to go 4-0 in the Super Bowl. He is in the discussion for best Head Coaches ever.
4) 3 previous Super Bowl Titles – No one on the list had more than 1 previous title other than the 1992 49ers. Joe Montana was not the 49ers QB that season nor were a lot of the key players from the previous Super Bowl teams still with the 49ers. While some of the 2007 Patriots were not present for the other 3 titles the Head Coach, QB, and many of the other core players were on some if not all of those previous Patriots teams.
5) 589 points scored – It was an NFL record for points scored in a single season. The Patriots averaged 41.1 points in their first 10 games of the 2007 season. Only 5 teams (Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Packers had 411 or more points over the entire 16 game season).
6) 274 points allowed – On paper it was the 4th best defense in the NFL. 274 points allowed in 16 games is not All Time Great, but it was still pretty good. The defense saved them in the Chargers game and almost saved them in the Super Bowl.
7) 18-0 – The closest anyone had come to the 1972 Dolphins were the 1985 Bears who went 12-0 before losing their first game. They finished that season 18-1. The 1998 Broncos and 2005 Colts started 13-0 and finished 14-2. No one had come as close as the Patriots did this season.
8) The Super Bowl was competitive – While the 2007 Giants will not go down as an all time great team, unlike the 1968 Colts and 1969 Vikings who were manhandled in the Super Bowl, the Patriots had the Giants down to their last play. The Patriots were for all intents and purposes beaten on a 32 yard circus catch that will go down as one of the greatest in the history of the Super Bowl.
While all of the other teams have some compelling story lines no one brings that body of work to the table. There is nothing the Patriots or anyone else in the NFL can do going forward to diminish that body of work. It will be interesting to see how history remembers these 2007 Patriots. The standard for excellence is winning the Lombardi Trophy. The 2007 Patriots came up short in that regard.
Clearly there are Super Bowl winners that are not as good as the 2007 Patriots. The same can be said for a lot of the other teams on my list. Some years the bar is higher than others. Some will say that how the Patriots are viewed will be determined by how long their accomplishments stand the test of time. If 18-0 to start a season, 50 touchdown passes, 23 touchdown receptions, and 589 points still stand in 50 years that will speak volumes about the 2007 Patriots. I disagree. No one had ever done what the Patriots did prior to this season. They will have either a) Changed the way the game was played forever or, b) Done something that happens once in a lifetime. Either way that it was an impressive season.
The fact of the matter is that all of the teams on this list had some shortcomings. For the 83 Redskins, 98 Vikings, and 05 Colts the defense wasn’t quite good enough even if the scoring numbers suggested otherwise. For the 2001 Rams they turned the ball over too much. For as dominant as the Patriots were in 2007 they still had 2 short comings: 1) They were too slow on defense. While the Patriots were very strong on the defensive line and the corners, but they were very slow in the middle of the defense. In particular Bruscki, Harrison, and Seau. While that translated into good redzone defense because the field was shorter people were able to figure out how to move the ball downfield and keep the Patriots offense on the sideline in the second half of the season. 2) They just didn’t have enough offensive scoring balance. While the Brady and Moss show was fun to watch, they just didn’t get enough scoring out of the other offensive players. Almost half of Brady’s TD passes were to Moss. Their starting tailbacks only accounted for 9 rushing touchdowns. Stallworth was for the most part nonexistent. Wes Welker had a fantastic season, but from Week 11 to Week 17 he had 1 touchdown catch. Once teams figured out how to limit Moss and contain the other players it was possible to keep up with the Patriots. People weren’t afraid of the Patriots in the second half of the season like they were in the first half of the season.
In the first 10 games the Patriots averaged an unbelievable 41.1 points per game. They started off the season on fire, peaked from Week 6 to Week 11 when they scored over 48 points in 4 out of 5 games. Everyone was in the endzone. The average score those weeks was 45.8 to 18.4. The only reason it was that close is the 24-20 game against the then undefeated Indianapolis Colts is averaged into that total.
After Week 11 they never really were the same dominant team. Sure they won all of their games, but the competition wasn’t as good either. They won by an average of 29.6 to 19.5. That was a far cry from the beginning of the season. As people started to figure out some things about the Patriot’s offense the games got a lot closer. They beat the Eagles without McNabb by only 3 points. They beat the Ravens by only 3 points without McNair. They beat the Giants by only 3 points and trailed in that game by 12 points. The once victorious Dolphins shutout the Patriots in the second half in New England. The Patriots only beat the Jets 20-10 in New England. The Patriots won their 2 playoff games by a combined score of 52-32. They just didn’t progress very well over the course of the season.
The only good games they played after Week 11 considering the competition was the regular season game against the Steelers and the wildcard game against the Jaguars. The Steelers game was close at the half and the Jaguars game was competitive well into the 4th quarter.
Had they won the Super Bowl, I would have struggled to put them over the other gigantic single season teams because of how the Patriots finished the season combined with how ordinary they had looked in the playoffs. While those teams did not have the same beginning to the regular season the Patriots did they were much better in the postseason. Those teams got better as their seasons progressed.
The media and Patriots fans did a very good job of protecting this team. If you dared say the Patriots weren’t playing that well people would remind you that they were undefeated and in the midst of a historic season. You were labeled a Patriot hater. With the Patriots not losing it was pretty hard to argue against that.
I think history will remember the 2007 Patriots as arguably the best passing offense in the history of the NFL along with the 1984 Dolphins and 2004 Colts. Seeing they put up 50 touchdown passes and 589 points it is hard to argue with that. I think people will remember them as the greatest team not to win the Super Bowl. Finally, I think history will remember them in the conversation of top 25 single season all time great NFL teams. Similar to how history regards the 1991 UNLV Running Rebels in college basketball; too good in the regular season to overlook, but not good enough to be among the very elite without a title.
Just as Vegas losing by 2 points in the Final Four doesn’t prevent them from being a historic team; it seems hard for me to believe that the 2007 Patriots won’t be either. People aren’t going to forget about the 2007 Patriots because they didn’t win a ring. The Patriots were a handful of plays from completing a perfect season. I don’t think 3 or 4 plays take a team from being a in the discussion of Greatest Teams of All Time to absolutely nothing. I don’t believe history can hinge that much on just a few plays.
That said I think the Patriots failed miserably in joining the debate for the very Best Teams in NFL History. That standard is much different. The 2007 Patriots are not the Best of the Best. They are not on par with the other dominant teams of the last 50 years. While the 1962 Packers, 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers, 1984 49ers, 1985 Bears, 1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, 1994 49ers, 1996 Packers, and 1999 Rams might not have had a strength as good as Brady and Moss they didn’t have the weaknesses in the middle of the defense that limited the Patriots over the second half of the season. They weren’t as reliant on one offensive weapon in Randy Moss. These teams were more unstoppable because they had better overall balance on both sides of the football. While that better balance may not have translated into as many regular season wins it translated into the more important achievement, postseason dominance and the Lombardi Trophy.
That probably would have been the case had the 2007 Patriots won the Super Bowl. While they would have had the best record of any of the all time great teams they also would have had the least balance. The only difference is that it would have created a screaming match with Patriots fans about how 19-0 made them the best ever. The Patriots losing the Super Bowl makes that debate a slam dunk. While history doesn’t hinge on one or two plays there still is a very thin line between mortality and immortality.
What are your thoughts? Did I get it right that the Patriots are still a historic team, just not an All Time Great Team? Does their failure to win the Super Bowl make them a distant memory next season? Are they the Greatest Team to not finish their season with a Super Bowl Trophy? Let me know your thoughts.
The Patriots have completed the first 16-0 season in the history of the National Football League and have rested on their bye week. Their run to 19-0 begins this weekend. Therefore it is time to look at handicapping their chances of bringing home the Lombardi Trophy.
I am a true believer in the theory that history repeats itself. If you want to see which 2007 teams have a realistic shot of winning the Super Bowl look at what the past champions have done and you can start dismissing unworthy teams pretty quickly.
People tend to make things a lot more complicated than it really needs to be. You have some people that keep preaching that defense and running the football wins championships. Look at the 1962 Packers, 72 Dolphins, 74 Steelers, 85 Bears, 93 Cowboys, and 00 Ravens. Others wills say that you need a Hall of Fame Quarterback like Brady, Elway, Favre, Manning, Montana, or Unitas. Others prefer the Hall of Fame Running Back like Allen, Brown, Harris, Payton, or Smith.
The fact is that teams have found all kinds of different ways to bring home The Lombardi Trophy since the 1966 season. Some have had great offense. Some have had great defense. Some have won as the 1st seed and prohibited favorite. The 05 Steelers won as the 6th seed. We have had a 17-0 team and a 15-5 team win it all. We have had a team that featured two 1,000-yard running backs. We have had the Greatest Show on Turf. While teams have all found different ways to win there is one formula for winning that works year in and year out. It is very simple and very basic. You need both a Top 10 Scoring Offense and a Top 10 Scoring Defense.
Seems pretty simple, right. You can’t be All World on one side of the ball and incompetent on the other side of the ball. You have to be able to score and stop the other team from scoring at a very high level. But that is the formula. These are the only teams since the 1970 merger that have won a Super Bowl without having both their offense and defense ranked in the top 10 of the NFL:
Year Team Offensive Scoring Rank Defensive Scoring Rank 1976 Raiders 4th of 28 teams 12th of 28 teams 1982* Redskins 12th of 28 teams 1st of 28 teams 1983 Raiders 3rd of 28 teams 13th of 28 teams 1990 Giants 15th of 28 teams 1st of 28 teams 2000 Ravens 14th of 31 teams 1st of 31 teams 2002 Buccaneers 18th of 32 teams 1st of 32 teams 2003 Patriots 12th of 32 teams 1st of 32 teams 2006 Colts 2nd of 32 teams 23rd of 32 teams
*strike shortened season
There you have it. Only 8 times since the 1970 merger has a team won a Super Bowl when one of its units was ranked outside of the top 10 in both points scored and points allowed. That is about 20% of the time. One of those years was the strike-shortened season of 1982 where the league only played 9 games. Furthermore, of the 8 times it has happened 5 of those times the team had the number one ranked defense in the NFL. That is where the saying Defense Wins Championships comes from. If you are going to be one dimensional it is much better to do so on the defensive side of the ball rather than the offensive side of the ball especially in the Live Ball Era. Defensive Dominance is a rare commodity when compared to Offensive Ability. Still the only teams that won a Super Bowl that were not in at least ranked in the top half of the league on their weaker side of the ball was the 1990 NY Giants, 2002 Buccaneers, and the 2006 Indianapolis Colts.
Now let’s look at the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs this season and how they rank in relation to the other 32 teams in the NFL:
Team Offensive Scoring Rank Defensive Scoring Rank
Dallas Cowboys 2nd 13th
Green Bay Packers 4th 6th(t)
Indianapolis Colts 3rd 1st
Jacksonville Jaguars 6th 10th
New England Patriots 1st 4th
New York Giants 14th 17th
Pittsburgh Steelers 9th (t) 2nd
San Diego Chargers 5th 5th
Seattle Seahawks 9th(t) 6th(t)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18th 3rd
Tennessee Titans 22nd 8th
Washington Redskins 18th(t) 11th
Interesting how that theory applies to the playoffs too. Seven of the twelve-playoff teams have offensive and defensive units that are ranked in the top 10. Dallas is only 3 spots from being the 8th team in that group. Furthermore the teams that were in the top 10 in both categories went 3-1 on Wild Card Weekend as opposed to the teams that weren’t going 1-3. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville played each other so someone had to lose. Tampa and NY Giants played each other so someone had to win.
It also shows why people believe the AFC is the better conference. 5 of their 6 teams have both offenses and defenses that are ranked in the top 10 as opposed to only 1 of the 6 teams in the NFC.
What this means for New England is that they may very well have the toughest road that any “All Time Great” team has ever had to get to the Super Bowl. I’m not taking anything away from the 1985 Chicago Bears. But here are the rankings of the teams they met in the playoffs along with 8 other dominant teams in the Super Bowl era. By dominant I mean either an offense or defense ranked number 1 with the other unit ranked in the top 5. Their opponents offensive rank is listed first followed by the defense.
Only one of those teams played two teams that had top 10 units on both side of the ball to reach the Super Bowl. That would be the 1996 Packers. The only other team to play two such units in the same playoff is the 1972 Dolphins. It just doesn’t happen that often that you have that many teams in the playoffs that are that equally strong on both sides of the ball. Usually a team is strong on one side of the ball at the expense of the other, especially in the Salary Cap Era. If you are a number one seeded team you might have to face a dominant team in the Championship Game. However with a first round bye and playing the opponent with the worse record in the 2nd round, usually that opening round game poses some lesser challenges.
This is a very strange year in regards of the distribution of talent. The 1999 Buccaneers were able to make the NFC Championship Game with the 27th ranked offense in the NFL. I’m sorry, but that team wouldn’t make it out of the first round in the AFC this season unless they were playing Tennessee. To have 5 teams like that in the playoffs in one conference is beyond comprehension. The NFC has caught up to the AFC at the middle and at the bottom. The NFC went 32-32 against the AFC. That is a vast improvement over 2006 and especially 2005. However, the top teams in terms of overall balance still reside in the AFC.
This is bad news for the Patriots. Just because they had a fantastic regular season does not mean they are guaranteed to do anything in the post season. There have been plenty of times where you have two teams that have great balance playing in the same season. Only one can win it all and it isn’t always the team with the best record. Here are the 5 recent instances:
1990 Buffalo Bills (13-3) (1st, 6th) lost to NY Giants (13-3) (15th, 1st) 20-19 in the Super Bowl
1992 San Francisco 49ers (14-2) (1st, 3rd) lost to Dallas Cowboys (13-3) (2nd, 5th) 30-20 NFC Conference Championship
1997 Green Bay Packers (13-3) (2nd, 5th) lost to Denver Broncos (12-4) (1st, 6th) 31-24 in the Super Bowl
2001 St Louis Rams (14-2) (1st, 7th) lost to the New England Patriots (11-5) (6th, 6th) 20-17 in the Super Bowl
2005 Indianapolis Colts (14-2) (2nd, 2nd) lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) (9th, 3rd) 21-18 in the AFC Divisional Round.
The fact is that while New England is 16-0 Indy is no slouch at 13-3. That is only a 3 game difference. Would we be shocked if a 10-6 team beat a 13-3 team? How about a 14-2 team losing to an 11-5 team? With so few games there isn’t much talent wise that separates teams who differ 3 games in the standings. It can be the result of injuries, schedule strength, or a few lucky breaks. While a 2001 14-2 Rams team or 2005 14-2 Colts team losing was a monumental upset, at least we had seen those teams lose before that season. It isn’t like we haven’t seen a team with great balance lose. We just haven’t seen an undefeated team with great balance lose because it hasn’t happened since 1972.
That isn’t meant to say that what New England has done isn’t that impressive. It is the most impressive regular season I have ever seen. What I am saying is that doesn’t translate into guaranteed playoff success. If these were 7 game series, there isn’t anyway a team could beat New England 4 times in a 7 game series. However, this is one 60-minute game where the winner takes all.
If I were to pick the one team that the 2007 Patriots remind me of on that list of dominant teams personnel wise it would be the 1999 Rams. High flying spread it out offense with a very solid but not dominating defense. Brady is better than Warner but Faulk was better than Maroney. Moss is better than Holt or Bruce, but the overall quality of the wide receiver unit is similar. They had very similar offensive philosophies. The biggest difference is the Patriots are a proven veteran team while the Rams were making their first run in the playoffs.
However the Rams got to play 3 teams that were in the middle to the bottom on one side of the ball. That didn’t translate into a cakewalk. The Super Bowl came down to a last play that failed to force OT. The Buccaneers played the Rams tight in the NFC Championship Game. Even the Vikings were able to put up 37 points. The 1985 Bears, 1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, or 1996 Packers are the exceptions, not the rule. Usually the playoff games are competitive and come down to a handful of key plays no matter how good the team has played during the season.
Look at the 1940 Bears. They lost 7-3 to Washington before meeting them in the NFL Championship Game. They avenged that loss by winning 73-0 in the NFL Championship Game. They carried that momentum to 1941 where they won the NFL Championship at 10-1. In 1942 they outscored their opponents 376 points to 84 points or by 26.5 points per game. They had a perfect regular season. However, they lost to those Redskins 14-6 in the 1942 Championship Game. No matter how dominant a team was in the regular season any team can beat another team on any given Sunday.
While the Chargers and Colts were not successful the first time around; they may have learned something from that game. Just because they lost a close game or were even blown out doesn’t mean they won’t fare better this time around. The weather will be different. The refs will be different. The players will play different. If the Chargers or Colts play the Patriots again it could go anywhere from a rout to a closer game.
In the end, what the statistics show is that New England has 6 opponents in the playoffs this season (Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Seattle and San Diego) that compare favorably ranking wise to many past Super Bowl Champions. Furthermore, Dallas is too good to not consider a true contender because their defense is ranked 13. Count them as number 7. That is a lot of bullets to dodge in the playoffs. The first of those bullets is going to be a very talented Jacksonville team that excels in a lot of areas that the Patriots are not at their strongest.
I understand that where past champions ranked will not determine this year’s Super Bowl Champion in as much as the individual and team match ups. The fact that Jacksonville compares favorably ranking wise to the 1980 Raiders or 2001 Patriots is not going to determine that playoff game in as much as how the Jaguars perform against Tom Brady and Randy Moss. No matter how balanced a team is they don’t have a unit as strong as the New England Offense. It will take a perfect game to beat them.
That said, if people think the Patriots are going to steamroll the NFL playoffs like the 1985 Bears or 1989 49ers they probably better slow down. The 2007 Patriots will have plenty of worthy teams to ruin their run at history. Should they end the season at 19-0 it would be hard to say this isn’t the greatest team of all time. While I think the Patriots have a very good chance of hoisting the trophy in February, I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. I think Patriot fans better buckle up, because regardless of whether the Patriots do make it to 19-0 it is going to be a bumpy ride. That ride starts when Jacksonville goes to Foxboro on Saturday.
After the first 6 weeks of the NFL season I selected the best 6 games starts in NFL history. If you did not catch the first article the link is as follows:
In that article I promised that if the Patriots were to go 12-0 or 11-1, I would take a look back at the best 12 game stretches in NFL history. My criteria in the previous article were limited to teams that played in the Super Bowl era. I believe there have been about 45 (6-0) starts in NFL history. That was the best way to narrow (6-0) starts to a manageable amount. There would have been too many teams to discuss had I gone further back than the Super Bowl era.
For purposes of this debate I will go back to 1961. The reason I decided to do that is 1) There are a lot fewer 11-1 and 12-0 starts than 6-0 starts. 2) That was the first year of the 14 game schedule. It really doesn’t make sense to look at 12-0 or 11-1 starts prior to that, because that encompassed the entire regular season. 3) The main teams we are omitting from the discussion if we stop at 1961 are the 1929 Green Bay Packers, which went 12-0-1 and the 1934 Bears who went 13-0, but lost in the NFL Championship Game. I don’t think a lot of people are going to be too terribly upset if I don’t look at those teams. 4) There was a team prior to the Super Bowl era that I wanted to include in this discussion. The 1962 Green Bay Packers are considered an all time great team and deserve consideration in this argument.
11-1 or 12-0 really isn’t that different to me. I don’t view the 17-0 Dolphins as the best team in the NFL. There are a number of teams I feel were better even though they lost a few games. While 12-0 definitely gives a team an advantage over an 11-1 team, this is just as much about dominance over the opposition as overall record. However wins are still very important and if we are only looking at the regular season, I am not going to look at 10-2 or 9-3 teams.
First, let’s start with the case for the 2007 Patriots: The Patriots have been an offensive juggernaut that the league has never seen. Tom Brady already has 41 touchdown passes. Randy Moss has 17 touchdown receptions. Both are chasing NFL single season records. The 07 Patriots have scored over 48 points four times and have over 30 points in 10 of their 12 contest. Only 3 games have been decided by single digits. The Patriots have outscored the opposition 469-209. Their 260 point scoring differential is more than 16 of the 32 NFL teams have scored on their own. Until recent weeks it was more than all but 4 teams in the NFL. Their 469 points put them on pace for 625 points or 70 points more than the NFL record held by the 1998 Vikings. They are challenging the 38.8 points per game put up by the 1950 Los Angles Rams. The defense is not dominant, but is overlook because of the gaudy numbers put up by the offense. The defense is allowing only 209 points which ranks 5th in the league. They rank 6th in yards allowed. They have allowed 14 points or less 5 out of 12 games. It has been a truly dominant season by the Patriots, although they have slowed in recent weeks. They won back-to-back 3 point games against 5-7 Philadelphia and 4-8 Baltimore. These teams played with backup quarterbacks in those games.
The criteria for making the list were very simple. The team had to start either 12-0 or 11-1. Similar to the 6-0 start winning the Super Bowl or playoff success has nothing to do with the argument. This is strictly looking at the regular season. If the Patriots win the Super Bowl, I’ll go back and take a look at their place among the all time champions. Here are the twelve best (12-0) or (11-1) teams that I narrowed in on since 1961.
1962 Green Bay Packers (11-1) – This is arguably the best single season team in the history of the NFL. The Green Bay Packers started the season 10-1 and their only blemish was to an 11-3 Detroit team that beat them 26-14 on Thanksgiving Day. The Packers finished the season leading the league in scoring with 415 points and points allowed with only 148 points. Both totals led the league. In their first 12 games they outscored the opposition 364-110. Six of their twelve victories were by 25 plus points. The Patriots have only 3 such victories, although two of the Patriots victories were by 24 points. The Packers had 35 rushing touchdowns that season and Bart Starr led a passing attack that was conservative but effective. This may be the most impressive combination of running the ball and defense that the league has ever seen. The 1972 Dolphins are the only other team in that conversation. The Patriots have obviously had the better offensive start. The Packers averaged 30.3 ppg in their 12 game start to the Patriots 39.1. However, the defense allowed only 9.2 ppg to the Patriots 17.1 points per game. That gives the Packers a 21.2 scoring margin to the Patriots 21.7. The Packers and Patriots both had 3 games decided by less than 10 points. The Packers were 2-1 in such contest. However, the Lions were 11-3 that season. They were one of the top 3 teams in the NFL. The Colts had Johnny Unitas and were still a very talented team. The Eagles and Ravens played to within 3 points with their backup QB. I would say that while the Patriots have had the better offensive start, the 1962 Packers were more dominating overall in their start. Advantage: 1962 Packers
1968 Baltimore Colts (11-1) – The Colts were a team that’s dominance is often overlooked due to their loss to the NY Jets in Super Bowl III. They outscored their opponents 358 to 117. That comes out to 20.1 points per game, which is also very close to the 2007 Patriots. The Colts also had 5 games that they won by 25 points or more. Their only loss was a 10 point loss to the Cleveland Browns, who they later beat 34-0 in the title game. The key for me is the Colts were a team that got better after their 6-0 start. In games 7 through 12, the Colts pitched 3 shutouts. They allowed 29 points in 6 games. The Patriots have 3 games in their last 4 decided by 4 points or less. They have 3 games where their offense has been held under 30 points. While the defensive rules are a lot different today, so are the offensive rules. While the 1968 Colts would have allowed more points with the 2007 rules, they also would have scored more. I would give a slight advantage to the Baltimore Colts. Advantage: 1968 Colts
1969 Minnesota Vikings (11-1) – After losing their opener by one point, the Vikings rattled off 12 consecutive wins before losing their season finale. They outscored the opposition 366-116. This team similar to the 68 Colts is often overlooked as a dominant team due to their Super Bowl loss to Kansas City. They had 5 wins by more than 25 points. They beat a Cleveland Browns team 51-3 that they would later beat 27-7 in the NFC Championship Game. They finished the season both first in scoring and points allowed. Couple thins of note. 1) In the Vikings favor they had 3 games where they scored over 50 points. The Patriots this year only have two. However the Vikings led the league with 333 points in 14 games. There are 4 teams that have that many points already and the Green Bay Packers have 323. 2) In the Vikings disadvantage, the Giants beat the Vikings in the opener, but finished 6-8 on the season. The Vikings loss is not as strong as the 62 Packers or the 68 Colts. 2) The Vikings don’t have that signature stat or signature streak. The Patriots have scored over 30 points in 10 of their 12 contests. They have 24 and 27 in the other 2 games. Brady has 41 touchdown passes. Moss has 17 touchdown catches. The 62 Packers had 35 rushing touchdowns in 14 games. They opened the first 4 games of the season allowing 14 points and had 2 shutouts. Then they had another 3 game stretch where they allowed 13 points. The Colts had a 6 game stretch where they allowed 29 points. The Vikings don’t have that. They have two shutouts. They have 5 games where they allowed under 10 points. They had a 4 game stretch where they won 139-24. However, there was a 9-7 win in the middle of that against a Packer team that would finish 8-6. They scored 50-points on 3 occasions, but had no 40 point games and only two 30-point games. That means they had 7 games where they scored under 30 points. I understand this is before the Live Ball Era. However, this is a team I would have an easier time putting above the Patriots if they had a 6 game stretch or a stat line where you were left shaking your head. When you are evaluating 12-0 vs. 11-0, you are splitting hairs. I really went back and forth with this. Based on the loss to the 6-8 Giants in the opener and the overall consistency, I would go with the Patriots by the slightest of margins. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
1972 Miami Dolphins (12-0) – The team that the Patriots are chasing also finished the season first in scoring and first in points allowed. The Dolphins outscored their opponents 346-158, or by 15.7 points per game. This is a full touchdown behind the Patriots. The Dolphins had only one win by more than 25 points. Five of their games were decided by 10 points or less. The schedule was among the easiest in the history of the NFL with opponents winning less than 40% of their regular season games. The numbers just don’t add up to give this team the nod over the Patriots. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
1984 San Francisco 49ers (11-1) – The 49ers were the team of the 80s, but they just don’t translate into this particular argument. The 1984 team outscored the opposition 335 to 184 or by 12.6 points per game. I didn’t even bother to list the 1990 49ers as they had an even lower margin of 7.9. The 1989 49ers are one of the all time great teams the Patriots will be stacked against should they win the Super Bowl. They were 10-2 and do not qualify. The numbers just aren’t close enough to even make an argument. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
1985 Chicago Bears (12-0) – The 1985 Bears are among the best teams in the history of the NFL. Their 12 game start to the 1985 season was unprecedented. They outscored their opponents 359-127 or by 19.3 points per game. This was another team that got better from games 7-12. They outscored their opponents 170 to 29 compared to the Patriots 239 to 117. While the Patriots had two 50-point games the Bears pitched consecutive shutouts and allowed 3 points in 3 weeks. The Bears and Patriots are tied with three 25 point plus victories in their first 12 games. However, the 85 Bears allowed 10 points or less in 8 of the 12 games. This comes down to whether great defense impresses you or great offense. I am of the belief that it is easier to score than defend. I would point to the fact that the Bears finished the season 2nd in points scored and 1st in points allowed. The Patriots are 1st in points scored and 5th in points allowed. Advantage: 1985 Bears
1991 Washington Redskins (11-1) – I think the fact that more people don’t talk about this team as an all time great is a joke. I believe that this team and the 1996 Packers are the two most overlooked single season dominant teams in the history of the NFL. The Redskins outscored their opposition 382 to 163 or by an average of 18.3 points per game for the first 12 games of the season. They scored over 30 points 7 times in their first 12 games. Their only blemish was to the Cowboys by 3 points in week 12. The Cowboys were an 11-5 team that season that would begin a run of 3 Super Bowls in 4 years the following season. The Skins allowed less than 14 points 7 times in their first 12 games. Three of those were shutouts posted in the first 6 weeks of the season. Most impressively were the scores they beat other playoff teams by. They are one of only two champions to play 11 games against teams with 10 plus victories including playoffs. In their first 12 games the Skins had a 45-0 victory over the NFC runner up Detroit Lions and a 56-17 victory over Atlanta; a team they played in the second round of the playoffs. I still give an advantage in the first 12 games to the Patriots. The Patriots have a slightly better record, are over 3 points better in margin of victory, and have two signature wins over 11-1 Dallas and 10-2 Indianapolis. People can talk about the recent close victories the Patriots have had, but the Skins had 4 games decided by 4 points or less in their 11-1 start as well, including their loss to Dallas. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
1996 Denver Broncos (11-1) & 1998 Denver Broncos (12-0) – The 1996 Broncos raced out of the gate 11-1 before Mike Shanahan decided to rest all his players for a month. The Broncos never really recovered from the 41-6 stomping the Packers gave them in Week 15. The result of the resting strategy was 3 losses in their last 4 games, including their first playoff game to (9-7) Jacksonville. This team outscored the opposition 317 to 192 or by 10.4 points per game. They were impressive, but not good enough to pass the other teams on this list. In 1998 Mike Shanahan handled the fast start much better and the result was a second consecutive Super Bowl ring. This team outscored the opposition 401 to 206 or by 16.25 points per game. This team definitely ran the ball better than the 2007 Patriots. However, the defenses are very comparable and you just can’t over look a 68-point advantage in the scoring department and 6 point advantage in margin of victory. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
1998 MinnesotaVikings (11-1) – As good as the Vikings offense was that season, the defense just doesn’t measure up. The Patriots have outscored the Vikings by 74 points through 12 games and the 240 points the Vikings allowed is 31 points more than the Patriots. The result is a 21.7 ppg victory margin to only 12.8. The Vikings were explosive, but the Patriots have a much stronger defense and are a more balanced team on offense. They are a much better version of the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
2004 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) – Now we are starting to get to some of the more recent teams. This particular debate doesn’t take long. The Steelers only outscored the opposition 273 to 184 or by 7.4 points per game. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
2005 Indianapolis Colts (12-0) – The Colts outscored the opposition 366 to 162 or by 17.0 points per game. That gets the Colts into the debate. The Colts had only two 25 plus point victories. The Colts had an identity crisis that season. The first 5 games featured an offense that averaged 21.2 ppg and gave up only 5.8 points per game. Their next 7 games saw the averages change to 37.1 ppg scored and 19.0 points per game allowed. That shift in strength hurts them. The Colts ranked 2nd in both points scored and points allowed. However, this team is similar to the 1969 Vikings in that the individual scores don’t demonstrate the overall strengths as well as the cumulative stats. The 85 Bears are synonymous with defensive dominance. The Patriots are developing that on the offensive side. The 05 Colts simply don’t have that. Was this a great offensive or great defensive team? They allowed under 10 points 6 times, but gave up 20 points or more 4 times. They scored over 30 points 7 times, but scored under 14 points twice. I think the Colts had a fantastic start and it was a shame that the suicide of Tony Dungy’s son really put a dark cloud over what should have been a celebrated season. Anyone that thinks that tragedy didn’t affect this team is kidding himself or herself. I give the advantage to the Patriots based on scoring margin and overall consistency in their start. Advantage 2007 Patriots
2007 Dallas Cowboys (11-1) – This is not one of the twelve best teams since 1961. I included the Cowboys just so people can see how this team stacks up with some of the other great starts. The Cowboys have outscored their opposition 395-248 or by 12.25 points per game. They have two victories by 25 plus points. Their only loss is to an undefeated Patriots team. If you take that game out of the occasion, they have a victory margin of 14 points per game. The Cowboys have scored about as many points as the 1998 Vikings through 12 games. They have a comparable defense. They have a higher victory margin that the 2004 Steelers and 1990 49ers. They are comparable in that department to the 1984 49ers. While they obviously are not on the same level as the 2007 Patriots or the other top teams on the list, they are having a very nice season that compares favorably to some other dominant squads. Advantage: 2007 Patriots
So there you have it. Here is how I would rank the best 12 game starts in the NFL since 1961:
1) 1985 Chicago Bears (12-0): Outscored their opponents 359-117. Average Margin of Victory 19.3 points per game, 8 of 12 games allowed 10 points or less including 3 points allowed in a 3-week span.
2) 1962 Green Bay Packers (11-1): Outscored their opponents 364-110. Average Margin of Victory 21.2 points per game, 6 victories of 25 plus points, and 9 of 12 by double digits.
3) 1968 Baltimore Colts (11-1): Outscored their opponents 358-117. Average Margin of Victory 20.1 points per game, 5 victories of 25 plus points, 29 points allowed in games 7 through 12.
4) 2007 New England Patriots (12-0): Outscored their opponents 469-209. Average Margin of Victory 21.7 points per game, 10 of 12 games scored 30 points or more including 4 games with 48 plus points.
5) 1969 Minnesota Vikings (11-1): Outscored their opponents 366-116. Average Margin of Victory 20.8 points per game, 5 victories of 25 plus points, 3 games with more than 50 points scored.
Honorable Mention: 1991 Washington Redskins (11-1)
What are your thoughts? Have the Patriots had the best 12 game start to a season in NFL history? Is there a team you think I ranked too high? Too low? Not at all? Let me know your thoughts.
So it is finally here. The 8-0 New England Patriots take on the 7-0 Indianapolis Colts in what is probably the best regular season match up of all time. Never in the history of the NFL have two teams met this late in the season with perfect records. To appreciate how truly dominant these teams have been in 2007 let’s take a look at the numbers:
New England Patriots (8-0) – The New England Patriots have been truly remarkable. They have outscored their opponents 331 to 127 or by an average of 25.5 points per game. The 204-point margin of victory is more points than all but two teams have scored on the entire season. They rank first in total yards per game with 439.5 yards per game. They rank first in passing yards at 303.8 yards per game. They rank 8th in rushing yards at 135.8 yards per game. This despite Maroney being hurt for much of the season. They have gained 400 yards or more of total offense in every game this season. Tom Brady has 30 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions. They have scored over 40 points in 3 straight games. The last team to do that was the 2004 Indianapolis Colts. Furthermore, they rank 3rd in total defense giving up 268.5 yards per game. This despite Rodney Harrison missing the first 4 games of the season and Seymour missing the first 7 games. Whether you are a Patriots fan or root against the Patriots with religious like passion we are definitely watching a historical start to a season. This will be the game that determines where their entire regular season ranks in NFL history. If they were able to beat the Colts as convincingly as they have beat their other opponents they will probably be considered the best team in NFL history; assuming they lose one game or less and win the Super Bowl. If they lose the game convincingly people will argue the Patriots start is a fraud, the result of a division that stands at (4-19). A division that has one win outside of the division, Buffalo over Baltimore. A great team running up the score on nobodies. Just not an all time great team. That is what is at stake for the Patriots this week.
Indianapolis Colts (7-0) – When you consider what the Colts have accomplished this season, it is truly amazing that people are not talking about their season. By beating Carolina 31-7 on Sunday they became the first team since the 1929-1931 Green Bay Packers to begin three consecutive seasons (7-0). This is by far the best team the Colts have had in the Peyton Manning era. The offense is explosive as ever, averaging 399.0 yards per game. They rank 5th in rushing, with 140.3 yards per game. They rank 6th in passing at 257.8 yards per game. Amazingly they have done that with Marvin Harrison ####ed up and Joseph Addai missing time. That isn’t what makes this team so special. We are used to the Colts putting up gaudy offensive numbers, regardless of Manning’s weapons. What we aren’t used to is a 4th ranked defense giving up only 272.9 yards per game. What we are not used to is a defense that surrenders only 14.6 ppg. The Colts have outscored the opposition 224 to 102, or by 17.4 points per game. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the defense with many starters lost to injury or free agency. They have replaced those departures and are a stronger unit than the team that won it all in 2006. The argument was always that if Peyton Manning ever had a defense, the Colts would be unbeatable. We are getting to see that this season. Furthermore, they are doing this in a division that has two other teams at (5-2). The Colts opponents have a (27-23) record on the season. The Patriots meanwhile have played opponents with a (24-34) record. When you consider the Colts fast start and the competition it has come against, I couldn’t fault a Colt’s fan for feeling that the Colts have the better team. In any other season we are obsessed with the Colts historic start. I cannot remember two teams that have been this dominant playing in the same season in the same conference. We are witnessing history unfold before are eyes. This will truly be an all-time great regular season game.
Before we look at this matchup, let’s take a look at some other memorable regular season match ups that have been of this magnitude. The criteria for making the list was 1) Teams could not be in the same division, but had to be in the same conference, and 2) Teams had to meet each other in the playoffs later that season with the winner winning the Super Bowl.
1990 – New York Giants (10-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-1) – This was the closest we got to watching two unbeaten teams this late in the season. The 49ers and Giants both started the season (10-0) and lost the week before this match up. The 49ers featured the 8th ranked scoring offense and finished 2nd in points allowed. The Giants were a pedestrian 15th in points scored, but featured the number one defense in points allowed and were 2nd in yards allowed. The two teams played a low scoring game that would end with 49er victory by the score of 7-3. The two teams would meet again in the NFC Championship Game, with the Giants prevailing 15-13. The Giants would go on to beat the Bills in the Super Bowl.
1994 – Dallas Cowboys (8-1) at San Francisco 49ers (7-2) – This was a monumental game in the 49ers Super Bowl run. Having lost the last 2 championship games to Dallas, the 49ers went on a defensive spending spree that was highlighted with the signing of Prime Time. The 49ers would lead the league in scoring that season and finished 6th in points allowed. The Cowboys were 2nd and 3rd. The 49ers got the better of that game 21-14, and finished the season one game ahead of the Cowboys. The 49ers would also win the rematch in the playoffs 38-28. They would go on to destroy the Chargers in the Super Bowl.
1995 – Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (4-1) – The Packers had lost two blowouts to the Cowboys in the playoffs in Dallas the last two seasons. The Packers were hoping to win this game to help them get that playoff game in Lambeau. The Packers featured a team that would finish the season 6th in points scored and 4th in points allowed. The Cowboys finished 3rd in both categories. The Cowboys would take this game 34-24. The Packers finished the season 11-5 to Dallas’s 12-4. That led to a rematch in the NFC Championship Game in Dallas, which was also won by Dallas 38-27. The Cowboys would go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl capturing their 3rd title in 4 years.
1996 – San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (5-1) – This was a huge Monday night game. The Packers were in the mist of a historic start and expectations were sky- high coming off the 1995 season. The two teams had met in the playoffs the year before with the Packers prevailing at Candlestick 27-17. The Cowboys, Packers, and 49ers were considered the favorites that year to come out of the NFC. The Packers finished the season ranked 1st in both points scored and allowed. The 49ers finished 3rd and 5th. The Packers would win this game in OT 23-20. The Packers would go on to finish 13-3 and the 49ers would go on to finish 12-4. They would meet in the 2nd round that year with the Packers prevailing 35-14 on route to their first Super Bowl since the Lombardi era.
2004 New England (6-0) at Pittsburgh (5-1) – These two familiar foes would face off in an epic regular season contest. The Patriots were the defending Super Bowl Champions and on an 18 game regular season winning streak, (21 counting playoffs). The Steelers had inserted a young Big Ben into the lineup and were in the process of something great. The Steelers would get the better of this matchup 34-20 and would finish the season 15-1. The Patriots didn’t do too badly themselves, finishing 14-2. The Steelers ranked 11th in points scored, but were 1st in points allowed. The Patriots were 4th and 2nd. The Patriots would get the better of the Steelers in the title game winning 41-27. They would go on to capture their 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years.
2006 – Indianapolis (7-0) at New England (6-1) - The matchup in Foxboro last year wasn’t too shabby. The Colts would beat the Patriots 27-20. Both teams finished the season 12-4, but neither received a first round bye. Both teams would win their home playoff game, win a road playoff game, and would meet again in Indy. The Colts were 3rd in scoring last season, but ranked 23rd in points allowed. The Patriots had the better balance finishing 7th in points scored and 2nd in points allowed. The teams would play a classic 38-34 game with the Colts going on to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl.
We’ve had plenty of other instances of teams meeting in the regular season and later in the postseason. The 1999 Jaguars and Titans, the 2000 Ravens and Titans, and the 2002 Eagles and Bucs are a few that come to mind. It is not unusual for dominant teams to meet in both the regular season and playoffs.
I am not a believer in the theory that how you play in September and October really doesn’t matter. After you have watched 6-8 games you can tell who the contenders are and who the pretenders are. You are what your record says you are. Great teams play great the entire year. The Patriots and Colts have been great in past seasons. Both teams look like all time great teams this season.
The only thing that can change that is injuries. Barring a Petyon Manning or Tom Brady injury we look destined to have another Colts vs. Patriots AFC Championship Game. These two teams are head and shoulders above the league. If both teams stay relatively healthy there doesn’t appear to be anything that can stop the inevitable from happening; a January rematch at the winner’s field.
These types of games are so huge because it basically gives the winner a two game lead. With the tiebreaker the winner can still afford to be tied and earn the home playoff game. While the winner will have the inside track to home field, the loser is by no means doomed to be the runner up the second time around. Both teams are good enough to win the playoff rematch on the road.
Here are the two things I think you need to look for in this game:
1) The Patriots linebackers and safeties vs. Clark and Addai – This is what I believe will be the biggest key to the game. The difference in the Colts this year as opposed to 2004 is that the Colts can beat you with both an explosive offense and a grind it out style. The reasons for that are the emergence of the running game, improvement on defense, and the maturation of Peyton Manning. The one weakness in the Patriots stellar defensive unit would be the linebackers and safeties. While this is a veteran group they rely more on their smarts than they do on their athleticism. There are plenty of guys in the league that run faster. Thomas would be the exception to that and is the main reason the Patriots signed him. The Patriots linebackers looked very slow in that title game last season. Can Manning exploit this part of the defense like he did in last years AFC Championship Game? If he can, the Colts can score points and control the clock, thus keeping the explosive Patriots offense on the sidelines.
2) Moss, Stallworth, and Welker vs. the Colts secondary – The Patriots are going to do the same thing they have in their first 8 ball games. They are going to spread the field and try to score in bunches. The goal will be to put the pressure on Manning and the Colts receivers to answer. The goal will be to make the Colts one-dimensional. While the Colts secondary is much improved over last season they haven’t faced a receiving core quite like this in game conditions. The Colts will not be able to cover the Patriots all over the field. The key is Freeney and Mathis putting pressure on Brady. If he doesn’t have time to find players down field, the Patriots will have to rely on short passes and the running game. If the Patriots are constantly in 3rd and long type situations, the Colts will have a better chance of controlling the game.
In the end, this game is more important to the Patriots than the Colts. The Colts are the defending champs and have won the last 3 meetings. The whole Patriots offseason was for this game. The Patriots were so bitter about losing the championship game that they wanted to prevent that from ever happening again. If they lose this game by 1 point their whole start is meaningless.
While the Colts want the game for seeding purposes, it is only important that they play a competitive game. A 52-7 loss would be a bad mental ba
