Now that training camps have officially kicked off I decided to come up with a list of the 12 burning questions on NFL fan’s minds entering training camp. With 32 teams I could not cover everyone. If you think I made a glaring admission please leave it in the comments and I will try to address it. Without further delay here are the 12 biggest questions around the NFL now that teams have reported for training camp.

12) Is Matt Leinart ready to emerge as the Arizona starter? - All indications are that he has looked good through the off-season and is ready to take control of that offense. However, the Cardinals also like Warner and have been having him take snaps with the first unit as well. He had his best season since leaving St Louis.

I think Leinart’s party lifestyle has gotten blown out of proportion. These guys are going to enjoy themselves. They aren’t robots that eat and digest football 24/7. They have families, endorsements, business ventures, and yes…hot tubs full of sexy young ladies.

Had this happened the Saturday night before the Seattle game I would have had a different take. Had he gone to Mexico with his entourage of hotness the week before his opening playoff game I would not have been impressed. It happened in the off-season and there is nothing wrong with Leinart enjoying his celebrity. The world of camera phones make it hard to keep that stuff private. When you combine that with his USC celebrity status you have the makings for that type of story.

This is the year he needs to break out. He has great receiving talent and a solid back in James. He has a good coaching staff. The line is not perfect and the defense will give up points, but the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, Steelers, and Browns in 2007. All three teams won 10 games. The time for excuses are over. I think he does have a good year, but I’m not certain. What I am certain of is that whether he breaks out or not will have nothing to do with the company he kept in his hot tub.

11) Will the NY Jets and Oakland Raiders spending spree pay off? - It might have paid off in the NFC. The problem is that the Jets finished 12 games off the Patriots in 2007. Even with the players they added they are only the second best team in that division. The Raiders finished 7 games off the Chargers. They too have a long way to go to close that gap.

At the end of the day it is still a quarterback’s league. The Jets have Pennington and Clemens and the Raiders are trying to figure out if Russell and McFadden can usher in a new era of excellence. While both teams added some good players and both teams overpaid for some talent they will be better in 2008. I just don’t think they’ll be good enough to compete with the slew of playoff teams in the AFC.

I look for the Jets to get to the .500 mark and for the Raiders to get to 6-7 wins. While that will be improvement, it won’t satisfy fan’s expectations given that the Jets and Raiders were throwing dollars at free agents this off-season like PacMan throws at strippers on a Monday night. Sorry Dallas fans. I couldn’t help myself.

10) Where does Shaun Alexander end up in 2008? - I don’t understand why he hasn’t ended up in Green Bay yet. Ted Thompson drafted him in Seattle. Thompson has cap room and wouldn't have to give up draft picks. Ryan Grant is holding out for a larger contract. The Packers have no proven rushers on their roster. It would seem like a no brainer to get this guy into camp, 1) to put pressure on Grant to sign, 2) To have an insurance policy if Grant gets hurt, is ineffective, or both, 3) To show your younger players how to play the running back position.

Alexander doesn’t have nearly enough in the tank to generate a season like he did when he won the MVP in 2005. What he does have is a wealth of experience and the ability to share the load with another runner. He could be a valuable player in a playoff game. I would expect that someone’s running back is going to get injured and that they will turn to Shaun Alexander at that point to save their season. It is amazing how quickly a guy can go from MVP to out of a job.

9) Are Cleveland and Minnesota playoff teams in 2008? - These were basically the two teams that just missed the playoffs in 2007. These teams are usually the most intriguing the following year. In 2006 Green Bay used its playoff miss to improve from 8-8 to 13-3. Denver and Cincinnati regressed from their near misses in 2006 to play even worse in 2007. It can go both ways.

Minnesota had a great off season adding Jared Allen to the defensive line. Bernard Berrian gives them a much better target at receiver. Jackson is developing. With the “retirement” of Brett Favre the division is in flux and I expect the Vikings to grab the NFC North. In the extremely unlikely event the Vikings could acquire Favre they could be a Super Bowl contender.

Cleveland added a lot of talent on the defensive line with Rogers and Williams. They also added Stallworth to the receiver mix. Their offensive core is still young and improving. This could be a very dangerous team in 2008. I am expecting 10 wins and the final playoff spot.

Also don’t forget New Orleans. They finished 7-9 after making the NFC Championship in 2006. They have added Shockey. Vilma, Ellis, McCray, and Ga y. If their defense can regain its 2006 form and the offense can mount more of a downfield threat the Saints will be in prime position to win the NFC South.

8) Who will be the super surprise team of 2008? - I think the team with the best chance to go from the top 10 of the draft to playoff contention would be the St Louis Rams. They have a lot of offensive talent. Bulger is a solid quarterback. Jackson is a threat both as a runner and pass catcher. Holt is still a number one target. The Rams had a lot of issues on defense and the offensive line last year. Pace needs to stay healthy and Chris Long needs to have a big year to help bring back the defense.

That said the Rams don’t play in the toughest of divisions and they draw the AFC East in 2008. I only have them finishing 6-10, but I would not be shocked if they were able to get to 8-8 or 9-7 and contend for either the division or the last wildcard spot. They need to stay healthy and they need defensive improvement, but the Rams have a lot more skill position players than the run of the mill 3-13 squad.

7) Will the San Diego Chargers be healthy to start the season? - How is Gate’s toe? How is LT’s knee? How is River’s knee? How much work will they see in preseason? No one doubts that the Chargers have the talent in place to make a run for Tampa. The concern is that they will be hampered by injuries from the get go.

Phillip Rivers has been throwing the ball at camp and appears to be throwing the ball with excellent velocity. The San Diego Union reported that he appeared to be thicker in the upper body. All indications seem to point to him being ready for the opener. LT also appears to be a go with his knee for training camp. That is important because Turner bolted for Atlanta. The biggest question marks appear to be with Gate’s toe and Jamal William’s knee.

Gates is a huge part of the Chargers pass game. While Chambers and Jackson are solid targets they are by no means superstar number one caliber players. Gates is the best tight end in football when healthy. His blend of speed, leaping ability, and size make him impossible to defend. If he is not able to go that will be a huge blow to the Chargers.

On defense Williams is a big part of the run defense. Without him at full strength the Chargers will be more susceptible to the run. In a division with Denver, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that would be a huge blow.

I expect the Chargers to go 12-4 this season and work through their injury issues. This is still a young team that should be able to overcome those issues. However, a few big injuries are enough to derail even the best squads and the Chargers are starting off the training camp season with some big concerns.

6) Can Pittsburgh survive the toughest schedule in the NFL? - I think they will, but that schedule is brutal. Pittsburgh is like the Baltimore Ravens of a year ago. The Ravens were coming off a 13-3 season, but people were very concerned about a Week 12-14 stretch where they played San Diego, New England, and Indy. Pittsburgh this season draws an even tougher slate. They play Indy, San Diego, New England, and Dallas in 4 out of 5 weeks from Week 10-14. Most people have those 4 teams somewhere in their top 5 or 6 rankings in the NFL.

I think the Steelers have a lot of things going for them that the Ravens didn’t in 2007. I think that Big Ben gives the Steelers the play at quarterback that a team needs to survive a stretch like that. McNair and Boller didn’t do that for the Ravens. I think the Steelers have more players on offense that can score points. I think the defense is in good shape. It also helps to have Cincinnati in the middle of that stretch. That is a team that the Steelers can regain offensive confidence against should they struggle to start that stretch.

The bottom line is that the Steelers still have a good team and I think people are getting a little too caught up in the schedule and in Cleveland’s off-season additions. This is still the Steelers’ division. That said it is imperative that Pittsburgh stay healthy and they don’t get off to a poor start and lose games early in the season that they should take care of. They need to beat the Ravens twice, the Bengals twice, and the Texans. They need to play well at home. They aren’t going to go 16-0 against that schedule, but they should be able to finish around 10-6 or 11-5. However, if things don’t go their way the schedule will do them no favors and could knock them on the ground fast. The Steelers have little to no margin for error.

5) Can the New York Giants repeat as Super Bowl champions? - They could, but I think it is very unlikely. Critics of the NY Giants are going to start with an Eli Manning bashing. I’m just going to look at it by the numbers. The New York Giants beat the Buccaneers soundly, 24-14. Then they beat the Cowboys by 3 points intercepting Romo in the end zone to close the game. They intercepted Favre in overtime to beat the Packers by 3 points. They won the Super Bowl by 3 points against New England. This is not a team that ran away with the playoffs. It is a team that got hot at the end of the season, played at a very high level both physically but mentally as well, and caught a lot of good breaks. To expect a team to win that many close games a second year in a row is not realistic.

The New York Giants had a lot of losses this off-season. Strahan is a Hall of Famer and the leader of this team. He is no longer there. Wilson, Mitchell, and Torbar left via free agency. Shockey was traded to the Saints. That is a lot of talent to lose. They drafted well, but those players will need time to develop.

Then there is Eli Manning. When all the dust settles he still has a 54.7 career completion percentage, has never thrown for more than 3,800 yards, has never thrown for more than 25 touchdowns, has never thrown for less than 15 interceptions in a season in which he started 16 games. He has a career 73.4 quarterback rating. I expect him to play his best season this year. I think the playoffs were no fluke and I think he turned the corner. 3,500 to 3,800 yards, 25 touchdowns, 15 picks and a rating in the mid to high 80’s is realistic. The NY Giants should make the playoffs as a wildcard.

Once there anything is possible. But I don’t see them having another run to the Super Bowl. It is very hard to repeat in the NFL and the Giants didn’t show me enough in the playoffs last year or the off-season adding talent to make me think we are in the midst of an emerging dynasty. I think it is a very talented team that peaked at the right time and made the most of a tremendous opportunity. They deserve credit for their accomplishment, but also deserve to be viewed based on their talent going into this season not their play to end last season.

4) Will Dallas win it’s first playoff game since 1996? - If Dallas doesn’t win the NFC this season it isn’t ever going to happen. In 2006 Romo had only started a hand full of games. Last season under new coach Wade Phillips they raced out to a 12-1 record before finishing 1-3. TO was injured last in the season and Romo again played poorly in the playoffs.

This season they seem to have it all. TO, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Jason Witten give them all the skill position players they could ask for. Romo is entering his 3rd season as a starter. The offensive line is stacked with 3 Pro Bowl players. The defense added Zach Thomas, PacMan Jones, and Mike Jenkins. If the Cowboys can’t win a playoff game this year they have no excuses. If they can’t make it to the Super Bowl they will have had a disappointing season.

The problem the Cowboys have is that they have people that traditionally come up small in the playoffs and I’m not even talking about Romo. It is not fair to give Romo that tag after appearing in only two playoff games. I’m talking about TO and Phillips. For all of TO’s regular season success since TO became a star receiver in the 1998 season he is 2-6 in the playoffs. He had a fantastic game against the New York Giants when the 49ers overcame a 38-14 3rd quarter deficit. He had 9 receptions for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also played well in the Super Bowl with Philly. Other than that he has a bunch of games under 100 yards and with very low touchdown output. Part of that is because he tends to be hurt at the end of the season. That was the case in 2004, 2006, and 2007. He needs to stay healthy and he needs to bring his A game for the Cowboys to win.

Then there is Wade Phillips. He has a 61-42 record as a Head Coach, but is 0-4 in the playoffs. Part of that can be blamed on a Music City Miracle, but part of that debacle last year was his fault. That team looked fat and comfortable against New York. This year there are now excuses. They should have all the talent and motivation to get the job done. If the Cowboys show bad in the playoffs he isn’t going to have another crack at it. I look for the Cowboys to win that first playoff game and to be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

3) Will Peyton Manning be ready for the season opener? - It’s difficult to say at this point, because surgeries have so many variables that Manning will not be able to control. Infection is always the biggest worry. Given that he has never missed a game in his career and given that he has a history of healing fast and taking care of his body I would be shocked if he wasn’t ready to go.

The problem for Indy is they don’t get a cakewalk type schedule to open the season and allow Manning to get back in the flow. They open at home against Chicago, travel to Minnesota, and return home to face Jacksonville. If he starts off slow the schedule has the potential to put the Colts in an early season hole. That is something foreign to this team in recent years. Since 2000 the Colts are 20-4 in September. Their last September loss was a 27-24 September 09, 2004 at New England.

Peyton Manning isn’t going to lose chemistry with his receivers. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and Addai have a lot of experience in this offense. The offensive line has been together for a while. The question is more based on ability. If the knee is sore will Manning be able to make the throws with the same accuracy and velocity that he is accustomed too? How much mobility will the injury take away?

Peyton Manning is a prolific passer and I am not betting against him. I think he will be sharp and ready to go to start the season. I look for him to have another Peyton Manning like year.

2) Can New England, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss duplicate their 2007 success? - The schedule actually lines up better for them in 2008 than 2007. In 2007 the Patriots had 8 games against playoff teams from 2006 on the schedule. In 2008 the Patriots have just 4. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2008 based on last seasons record at .387. Furthermore Randy Moss and Tom Brady have had a year to play together. Things look good for the Patriots to have a great year.

I think the Patriots will have a great year. What they won’t have is a historic year like they did in 2007. The New England Patriots were starting to slowdown my Week 9 last year. From the Week 9 Colts game to the Super Bowl the Patriots averaged 29.5 points per game compared to the first 8 games where they averaged 41.4 points per game . Tom Brady had 30 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his first 8 games. He had 26 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his last 11 games of the season. Moss had 11 touchdowns in his first 8 games and 13 touchdowns in his last 11 games. Wes Welker slowed in the 2nd half of the season.

I’m not saying this team played bad the second half of the season. They won 10 of those last 11 games and the loss was by 3 points. What I am saying is they were immortal the first 8 games of 2007 and after that they were a team that won some big games, but played 7 games that were decided by 10 points or less. Where I expect the Patriots to pick up is where they left off the 2007 season not where they started the 2007 season. I think 4,000 to 4,200 yards and 30-35 touchdown passes are likely for Brady. I think Moss will have 80-90 catches for 1,300-1,400 yards and 12-15 touchdowns. I think the Patriots will not be able to run the table a second consecutive year based on the losses they had on defense and the fact that their offense won’t be so explosive. 13-3 is a realistic record. The schedule looks pretty easy to start. I think the Patriots will be primed to lose their Week 6 game at San Diego.

1) Where does Brett Favre play in 2008 and if not Green Bay how do the Packers fare without him? - I’m done trying to guess this. It keeps taking a lot of unpredictable turns. Based on what the Packers are communicating publicly it seems as if they are ready to go with Aaron Rodgers whether he plays the camp of all camps or has one to forget. Thompson and McCarthy seem to be 100% behind him. Whether people agree with that position doesn’t matter. Brett Favre is no longer the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.

That makes it hard to see Favre in a Packer uniform for the start of the season. I can’t imagine he would want to hold a clipboard or that the Packers would want him to do that. Thompson is already referring to the Packer players as #4’s former teammates. That means he will either return to retirement and possibly come out should Rodgers get injured. It might also be possible another quarterback gets injured that the Packers would be agreeable to sending him too. I think it is very possible he never plays again.

As far as how the Packers do in 2008. I picked an 8-8 season before Favre retired and the pressure on Rodgers to perform will be at an all-time high. If he starts slow the call for #4’s name will be heard throughout Lambeau Field and the media.

It is so hard to replace a legend even with the greatest of coaches. Mike Shanahan is 130-78 since he took over in Denver back in 1995. However, his career is a tale of two parts. From 1995 to 1998 he went 47-17, which is .734. He was 7-1in three playoff appearances and won back to back Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998. However, since 1998 he is only 83-61, which is .576. He is 1-4 in the playoffs and has not been back to a Super Bowl.

It hasn’t been as if the cupboard has been bare in Denver since 1998. He was able to replace Terrell Davis after the Super Bowl runs and the defense has had some good seasons. What Shanahan has sought and not been able to find is a replacement for John Elway. Bubby Brister, Chris Miller, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Steve Beuerlein, Danny Kanell, Jarious Jackson, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler have all tried. They have had mixed levels of success with Jake Plummer being the most successful and Jay Cutler showing the most promise. However without John Elway Mike Shanahan has been an above average coach.

That isn’t meant to diminish what Shanahan has accomplished. In my book he should be in the Hall of Fame. All the great coaches need great quarterback play to win. What we don’t know is if Mike McCarthy is a good head coach or if Favre made him look better than he was. Mike Sherman looked like a good head coach when he took over and that quickly faded even with Favre there through it all. We don’t know what Rodgers can do. 59 career passes is not enough to make a determination.

You could tell me the Packers could go 4-12 or 12-4 and I could really agree or disagree. There are too many unknowns on this team. Given the history or replacing legendary quarterbacks, first year quarterback struggles, the tougher first place schedule that features the AFC South, and a hold out by Ryan Grant who was their only rushing offense in 2007 I think 8-8 is a fair guess at this time. I don’t see how this team contends for the playoffs without Favre.

So what is your burning question for 2008? Do you think I answered these on the head or do you think I got it all wrong? Let me know your thoughts.

I plan to release my Playoff Predictions based off of my 8 division previews on Wednesday, August 6th. I haven’t done real well with responding to comments on my last couple articles due to time constraints on my part. I will try to do better on this article.

 You can view this article and other articles I've written at the Maniax's site.

This is my second of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC East is probably the most competitive division headed into the 2008 season. The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Dallas Cowboys won 13 games and had the number one seed in the NFC. The Redskins won their last 4 games to make the playoffs as the final wildcard. Finally, the Eagles finished strong and were a very dangerous 8-8 team at the end of the season that did not qualify for the postseason. The only other division that has a claim to being as competitive as the NFC East would be the AFC South, which also had 3 teams qualify for the playoffs in 2007.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.

1) Dallas Cowboys

07 Record: 13-3

Points Scored: 455 (2nd)

Points Allowed: 325 (13th)

Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Dallas Cowboys had a very impressive start to their 2007 season. In their first 13 games they went 12-1 with their only loss being to the New England Patriots. In their first 12 games they outscored their opponents 395-248, or by an average of 12.25 points per game. After their 37-27 victory against 10-1 Green Bay they looked poised to be the NFC favorite to take on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, things didn’t go according to plan. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games and were outscored 60-77. Then the Cowboys were upset in the playoffs, by the eventual champion NY Giants, 21-17. It was a very disappointing end to a season that looked destined to end with a Super Bowl appearance.

The Cowboys had a load of talent on their roster in 2007. They sent a record 11 players to the Pro Bowl, 7 of which were starters. The number one strength on the Cowboys was the offensive line. 3 of their 7 Pro Bowl starters came from that unit, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode. With Tony Romo given plenty of time to throw the ball and the numerous great weapons they had on offense the Cowboys put up points with great ease. Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns in his first full year starting. Jason Witten had a career year at tight end with 96 catches for 1145 yards and 7 touchdowns. Terrell Owens had 81 catches for 1355 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marion Barber posted 975 rushing yards and 282 receiving yards to go along with his 12 touchdowns. Nick Folk made the Pro Bowl as the NFC Kicker.

What it adds up to is an offense that dominated the NFC. Furthermore, their only key loss on offense was Julius Jones, who signed with Seattle. The Cowboys have taken care of that loss. They added RB Felix Jones in the first round and TE Martellus Bennett to play opposite Witten in the second round.

The only need the Cowboys did not address this season was wide receiver. TO is still an elite NFL receiver, but he is going to be 35 years old. Terry Glenn was hurt until the final game of the season. He is going to be 34. Patrick Crayton had a solid year filling in for Glenn, but still has a ways to go.

It is obvious the Cowboys would be in trouble if TO missed significant time. Teams don’t have backups that can produce at the same level as him. He is an elite wide receiver. Still without him in the lineup they go from scary to below average at the receiver position. He must find a way to stay healthy and play as close to 16 games as possible, something he hasn’t done since 2001.

Weaknesses: The defense was the major issue with the Cowboys in 2007. The Cowboys had a great front 7. They were able to finish 6th in rushing yards allowed. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware was named a starter to the Pro Bowl. He had 14 sacks. That was another area the Cowboys excelled at, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks. They also did well forcing turnovers. The Cowboys finished 6th in the NFL with 19 picks. Ken Hamlin and Terrance Newman were chosen as Pro Bowl reserves. Both started for the Cowboys in their secondary.

What the Cowboys didn’t do is stop the pass very well. They finished 13th in the league in that regard. As a result of the yards they gave up in the passing game and the 19 interceptions that Tony Romo threw the Cowboys gave up 20.3 points per game, which ranked 13th. For all the great plays Tony Romo makes he needs to cut down on the interceptions if the Cowboys are going to be playing February football.

I’m not saying the Cowboys were horrible on defense. They did a lot of things well and their weaknesses are not that bad in the whole scheme of things. However, if the Cowboys want to reach their desired destination as Super Bowl Champions, they need to sure up those areas.

The Cowboys tried to do that this offseason. They made their second first round pick a corner in Michael Jenkins. They also traded for PacMan Jones. If he can stay out of trouble and gain reinstatement from the NFL, he should be able to help this team. The signing of Zach Thomas could be big as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice veteran presence in the middle of the Cowboy’s Defense.

Prediction: It is either the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. The Cowboys have made the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. As an organization, they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Combined with the talent they bring back and the new talent they acquired via 2 first round draft picks, Zach Thomas, and PacMan Jones; expectations will be through the roof. Chemistry will be a big issue in 2008. While the talent of the Cowboys is not questioned, how that talent will interact in the locker room still is. Also Tony Romo needs to cut down on his distractions off the field. There is nothing wrong with him using his celebrity to his advantage, but it shouldn’t be spilling onto the football field. He has to minimize those things as much as possible.

The Cowboys always have a brutal divisional schedule. They get 4 playoff games in the division and the Philadelphia Eagles who beat them at the end of last season in Dallas. Their out of conference schedule appears to be a little tougher than 2007. While the Patriots and Packers were very tough, those were the only two-playoff teams they faced outside the division. This year they get Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is difficult to say if those teams will be as good in 2008 as they were a year ago. Pittsburgh and Cleveland also provide some competitive games. I think the Cowboys will have roughly the same record as they did in 2007, but I don’t expect them to jump out to the 12-1 start they did a year ago. If the Cowboys can cut down on their turnovers and stop the pass better in 2008, there is no reason this team will not finish as the NFC’s number one seed for the second year in a row.

Dallas Cowboy’s Record: 12-4 – NFC East Divisional Champion; NFC #1 Seed

2) Philadelphia Eagles

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 336 (17th)

Points Allowed: 300 (9th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the division since 2000. The Eagles have won the division 5 times and made the playoffs 6 times. Prior to 2007 the Eagles had missed the playoffs only once, which was in 2005 during the season of the TO circus.

However, last season the Eagles finished in last place in the NFC East and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Still the Eagles had a number of good things working for them. Most last place teams finish 4-12, not 8-8. The Eagles finished the season strong and had it not been for a 3 game losing streak to end November and begin December the Eagles could have made the playoffs.

On offense, Brian Westbrook quietly had a 2,104 all-purpose yard season. He also scored 12 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback was coming off a serious knee injury in 2006 and the Eagles did not have a dominant receiving core; Westbrook should be applauded for his productivity in 2007. He is the most complete running back in the NFL not name LT.

Donovan McNabb did fairly well coming back from knee surgery. He started 14 games and had 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to go with his 89.9 QB rating. Kevin Curtis and McNabb had good chemistry at times. Curtis was able to finish with 1,110 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.

However, as usual the main strength of the Eagles was their defense. Under Jimmy Johnson the Eagles have been a mainstay in the top rankings of the NFL’s defenses. The Eagles 300 points allowed ranked 9th in the NFL. They also ranked 10th in yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. Trent Cole registered 12.5 sacks.

Weaknesses: The Eagles had 3 main weaknesses in 2007. The first was a lack of quality playmakers. Other than Brian Westbrook, there is no one on the Eagles that keeps defensive coordinators up into all hours of the night game planning.

Some will point to Kevin Curtis and suggest that he has the potential to be a number one receiver as evidenced by his 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is blindly looking at stats and not looking at how they were obtained. In week 3 Curtis had the game of his life. He had 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means in the other 15 games he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and 1 touchdown every 5 games. That just is not acceptable from a number one receiver. Reggie Brown also regressed in 2007. He went from 8 touchdowns in 2006 to 4 in 2007 and his yards dropped from 816 to 780. He did not have the breakout year he was hoping for. The Eagles did add DeShaun Jackson to provide depth in the return game and at the 3rd receiver spot. However, they were not able to obtain that impact wide receiver this offseason.

The second problem was their return team. The fumbles they had in punt return game against Green Bay alone cost them that game. They needed to find a quality return man as Westbrook is to valuable to risk injury at that position. Jackson should be an immediate impact in that regard.

The final weakness was in the secondary. The Eagles ranked 18th in yards allowed and their defense finished tied for last in the NFL in interceptions with just 11. Part of that was due to the rash of injuries they suffered in their secondary at the beginning of the season. That was the motivation for landing the prize of the 2008 free agency period in Samuel. He is a great playmaker that should fit into the Eagles secondary. If Brown, Shepherd, and Dawkins can stay healthy the Eagles have the potential to make a lot more plays in the secondary. It will also give Jimmy Johnson more flexibility to blitz knowing he has the secondary to cover the receivers in one-on-one coverage. That should be a big boost for the Eagles in their team sack numbers.

Prediction: The problem with picking the Eagles to do anything is you never know if Donovan McNabb is going to play a whole season. 2004 is the last season he stayed healthy. Since then he has missed 15 of a possible 48 games with injury. If he is not able to play 13-16 games it is difficult to imagine that the Eagles have the necessary parts in place to survive in a brutal NFC East.

Regardless, you can always count on Andy Reid and Jimmy Johnson to keep the Eagles ship steady and that starts with their strong defense. I don’t see McNabb returning to his 2004 numbers. I don’t believe the Eagles have the offensive weapons in place to do so. However, they don’t need him to do that. If he could just get back to his 2000 and 2001 production when he threw in the low 3,000 yard range and low 20 touchdown range the Eagles should be in great shape, given the emergence of Brian Westbrook as an elite NFL playmaker and a defense that is capable of stopping people. Donovan McNabb completing passes and taking care of the ball is enough for this team to win. That is something he is very good at as his interceptions per attempt is one of the best in NFL history. He started to look more like his old self at the end of the season.

Last year was expected, as he was coming off a serious ACL tear. Now that he is one year removed, he should be able to relax more, play with more confidence, and take the Eagles back to the playoffs. While I don’t believe they have enough offensive weapons to win the division, I would think that 10 wins are well within their reach.

Philadelphia Eagle’s Record: 10-6 – NFC East 2nd Place; NFC #5 Seed

3) New York Giants

07 Record: 10-6

Points Scored: 373 (14th)

Points Allowed: 351 (17th)

Playoff Result: Won Super Bowl

2008 Strength of Schedule: 133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The NY Giants were the most unlikely of Super Bowl Champions. At 10-6 they were the 5th seed in the NFC and were faced with having to win 4 games away from home. They had lost 2 of their final 3 games of the season, but seem to gain momentum with their strong performance against the Patriots in the season finale. Still #5 seeds are not supposed to win Super Bowls.

However, the Giants had gone 7-1 in the regular season on the road, losing their only road game in the opener. The NY Giants rode that road dominance to 11 straight road victories and the Super Bowl trophy.

The strength of the New York Giants is their front 4 on defense. Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Fred Robbins form one of the best defensive front fours in the entire NFL. The NY Giants generated to most pressure on the quarterback in 2007 generating an amazing 53 sacks.

At the beginning of the season the linebackers and secondary could not cover anyone. As the season progressed, the Giants got better in that regard. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster became much better at covering the pass in the second half of the season. While the Giants did lose Gibril Wilson to the Raiders in free agency, they also drafted Kenny Phillips to come into the organization and compete for the starting safety spot.

The linebacker spot is the unit on defense with the most questions. Pierce is still a strong middle linebacker and Mathias Kiwanuka should be ready for the start of the season. He was injured toward the end of the 2007 regular season. This is a unit that did not begin to gel until later in the season, but once everything came together the defense was able to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl title. Mitchell and Torbor were loss to free agency, so they will have to replace them in 2008.

On offense, the strength of the team was their running game. The NY Giants finished 4th in the NFL with a host of running backs. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns all contributed at times in 2007.

Eli Manning had a very average regular season. He had a 73.9 rating and 20 interceptions to go with his 3,336 yards passing and 23 touchdown throws. But was able to put everything together and lead his team to the Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress is a fantastic wide receiver and had 12 touchdown catches. Jeremy Shockey is a good tight end, but was the subject of trade rumors this offseason after the NY Giants offense didn’t miss a beat in the wake of his injury. He is still very talented and will help an offense that features Toomer, Smith, Tyree, and rookie Mario Manningham.

Weaknesses: The NY Giants have a couple of big question marks headed into the season. 1) Which Eli Manning is going to show up in 2008? The one that killed his team with a poor completion percentage and 20 interceptions or the one that started playing after the NY Giants lost to the Patriots in the season finale. If the Giants are going to excel in the regular season, Eli has to take care of the ball for an entire 16 game season. While I don’t expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, I don’t think he will return to his 2007 regular season numbers. I expect something in between the two. I would think that he would get 3,500 yards, 25 touchdown throws, and 12-15 interceptions.

The second question is whether Michael Strahan is going to retire or comeback for another season. Personally, I think he would be unwise to come back in 2008. He will be 37 in November and what better way to go out than win a Super Bowl in your final game. He is nowhere close to catching Bruce Smith for the NFL record in sacks and now that he is a champion he has nothing left to prove. Anything short of repeating would be a disappointing season.

If he doesn’t comeback, how is that going to affect the dynamics of the Giants front 4? Similar to the Packers who are losing Favre, there is a lot of talent in that front 7. However, because none of those players have played without Strahan, it is unclear whether or not the Giants defense will be as dominant without him. The Giants do not have a good record in recent years when he doesn’t play.

Prediction: The Giants are a difficult team to predict for 2008. They basically played 2 seasons in 2007. Week 1-15 where they turned the ball over too much and had problems stopping downfield passing offenses and Week 16 through the Super Bowl where they were difficult to move the ball against and took care of the ball. Regardless, they averaged 21.25 points per game in the postseason, so if anyone thinks this offense is going to evolve into the 2007 Patriots, I think they are going to be in shock. This is a team that is going to run the ball, take their shots downfield, and rely on their defense to win games. I think as their younger receivers develop, we may see them put a few more points on the board.

As I stated earlier, the big key is going to be the decision of Michael Strahan and whether or not he wants to return in 2008. If he does they will be a formidable opponent and will challenge the Cowboys for the division. If he doesn’t they still will be very good, but probably in the running for the final playoff spot. I don’t think he is going to comeback, and therefore I am predicting about the same record in 2008 and the #6 seed for the defending champions.

NY Giants Record: 9-7 – NFC East 3rd Place; NFC #6 seed

4) Washington Redskins

07 Record: 9-7

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 310 (11th)

Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: In 2007 the Redskins looked like a ship that was sinking fast. After a 5-3 start to the season, they lost 4 games in a row and were sitting at 5-7. Sean Taylor was tragically shot dead in his home. When the Redskins lost to the Bills largely on a timeout mishap that gave the Bills a field goal that was 15 yards closer to win the game the season looked to be lost. However, the Redskins won their last 4 games of the season guided by the veteran backup Todd Collins, they were able to sneak into the playoffs as the # 6 seed before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in what would be Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibb’s last game.

Jim Zorn is inheriting a strong cast of players. Clinton Portis was able to stay relatively healthy in 2007 and rushed for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jason Campbell was able to make good strides, despite not having much help at the receiver position. Todd Collins is a solid backup.

On defense the Redskins finished 4th against the run and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Their front 7 set the tempo for this defense. Andre Carter had 10.5 sacks.

The secondary was fairly average. LaRon Landry looks like the real deal at safety and Rodgers, Springs, and Smoot are solid corners. The Redskins ranked 16th in passing yards allowed. Some games they were brilliant, such as Tampa Bay and Detroit when they allowed less than 100 yards passing. Other games like the road games against Dallas and New England they allowed way to many yards. The Redskins will have to find a way to replace Sean Taylor in their secondary. While I hate to talk Xs and Os when there was such a human tragedy involved, the fact still remains that the Redskins were a much tougher pass defense when he was starting. Replacing a player that was as talented as he was is difficult.

Weaknesses: The Redskins really struggled to move the ball threw the air. Part of that was Jason Campbell entering his first year as the full time starter. Anytime a team puts a young quarterback in the line up there are going to be up’s and downs. However, the fact remains that he had one touchdown pass or less in 10 of his 13 starts. That number has to improve.

A lot of that has to be blamed on the receivers. Portis had 11 touchdown runs and tight end Chris Cooley caught 8 touchdowns. However, no receiver caught a touchdown until James Thrash did in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is unacceptable. The Redskins overhauled the receiver position this offseason by drafting Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas in the 2nd round. I really liked the draft approach by the Redskins to get younger and bigger at wide receiver. Both are bigger receivers and should be better targets in the redzone.

Still, rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first year. While Randy Moss exploded into the league in Year 1, even great receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne took a few years to blossom. If this unit is going to be viable in 2008, Santana Moss must step up to the plate. The Redskins have to score more than 334 points playing in a division with Dallas, New York Giants, and Philly.

Prediction: The Redskins are in the unfortunate position of being in a very tough division. Jason Campbell is a nice quarterback that in a division like the NFC North would be in the running for the best quarterback in the division or in the AFC East would be in the running for best quarterback in the division not named Tom Brady. Here he is clearly the 4th quarterback in this division. Portis may be the 3rd best back in the division. Cooley made the Pro Bowl and isn’t even the best tight end in the division. The Redskins still lack the players at the skill positions to score enough points on a consistent basis to win the tough games they will have to play in the division. I like the moves they made in the draft and graded them very high. Still, those players will take a couple years to develop.

The schedule doesn’t set up as nice for the Redskins in 2008. In addition to the division, they have to travel to Seattle and play Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home. New Orleans is going to be a tough game. When you combine that with the 6 games they play in the division and I see them taking a step back in 2008.

Washington Redskin’s Record: 7-9 – NFC East 4th Place; No Playoffs

 

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

 

There is going to be a Manning playing in the Championship Round.  Who would have thought it was going to be Eli and not Peyton.  The Patriots moved to within two games of perfection.    These games are on opposite ends of the spectrum.  If someone had told you in August that the Chargers would be visiting the Patriots for the AFC title, a lot of people would have bought into that.  That was my August pick for the title game, even though I abandoned it once the playoffs started because of how dominant the Colts played in the regular season.  The Chargers slow September is what makes this game a surprise.  On the other hand, who would have thought in August that the NFC Championship game would be played in historic Lambeau Field with the visiting Giants as the other representative in the title game?  Here is my recap of the Divisional Round:

Scores:    Green Bay (13-3) 42 Seattle (11-6) 20
                  New England (16-0) 31 Jacksonville (12-5) 20
                  San Diego (12-5) 28 Indianapolis (13-3) 24
                  NY Giants (11-6) 21 Dallas (13-3) 17

On Deck:  

Sunday:    San Diego (13-5) at New England (17-0)
                   NY Giants (12-6) at Green Bay (14-3)

 

MVP of the Week:  The two obvious choices are Tom Brady and Ryan Grant.  Tom Brady set an NFL record by completing 26 of 28 passes and led the Patriots to a 31-20 win over Jacksonville.  Ryan Grant had a very unimpressive start to his playoff debut by losing 2 fumbles on the first 3 offensive plays and spotting Seattle a 14-0 lead.  He recovered nicely going for a Packer record 201 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.  When you consider that Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung wore Packer uniforms that is a very impressive feat. 

Game of the Week:  While the Saturday games were not very close the Sunday games had a lot of drama.  Both games came down to the final possession.  I would go with the San Diego and Indy game as the Game of the Week.  The Colts are the defending champs and were expected to be a slam-dunk for the AFC Championship Game.  The big storyline was that LT and Rivers were both out of the game.  LT missed the entire 2nd half and Rivers missed the 4th quarter.  The Colts had a 24-21 lead when Rivers left the game for good.  Yet Billy Volek was able to lead the Chargers downfield and extend the Charger’s season.  Manning completed his first 14 passes and threw for 400 yards, but was unable to lead the rally.

Loser of the Weak:  It gets harder to name someone for this award, because it is so hard to win games at this point in the season.  However, I would have to go with the Dallas Cowboys who clearly underachieved in their playoff game.  That loss was a team effort.  Romo completed only 50% of his passes and led the Dallas offense to only 3 second half points.  He took two sacks where he should have thrown the ball out of bounds and got an intentional grounding when he was under no pressure to throw the ball.  He did a very average job managing the clock in the final two minutes of the game.  Crayton dropped a ball that should have gone for 60 yards.  The Dallas defense failed to put pressure on Manning and did not force a single turnover in that game, something they excelled at in the regular season.  That game was about a lot of missed opportunities on both sides of the ball.  Dallas has no one to blame but themselves.  NY Giants gave them every opportunity to take the game back and Dallas was unable to take advantage of those opportunities. 

The Bay of Pigs:  All 4 of the games were far from perfect.   However, every team featured high quality play at some point in the game, which is what you would expect at this time of the year.  None of the games deserve this label. 

The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): The bad decision that stood out to me was made by a coach that won the game.  I thought Tom Coughlin went way too conservative calling 5 straight running plays at the end of the game and one pass play where Eli was sacked.  The result was 2 consecutive 3 and outs for the NY Giants and two opportunities for the Cowboys to retake the lead.  For all that want to anoint this playoff run as Eli’s coming out party I still point to the fact that the coaching staff did not trust him to throw a pass on those final two possessions and that he had only 18 attempts the entire game.  While it worked out because Dallas failed to take advantage of the situation, that decision could have easily backfired.

Hospital Visit:  San Diego has the most injury issues.  Even though Gates played he was clearly slowed by the toe injury.  LT and Rivers had knee issues and will be questionable for next week.  That is three very important parts of the Chargers offense.  Also Ross left the Giants with a shoulder issue.  He needs to be in the lineup to help cover all the Packer receivers.  The Giants will be entering the NFC Championship Game with a lot of injury issues in the secondary against one of the deepest receiving cores in the NFL.   

Coaching Carousel:  No new coaching developments this week.  Couple places to keep your eye on will be Seattle and Indy where future Hall of Fame Coaches Holmgren and Dungy will be making decisions on their future this week.  I expect Holmgren to return for one more year and for Dungy to retire.  The fact that his kids are enrolled in a Tampa Bay school seems to be an indication that he might be leaning that way.  Also keep an eye on Dallas.  I know that Dallas had a 13-3 season.  But Wade Phillips was 0-3 in the playoffs entering this season and bowed out in the first round.  The Cowboys think the world of Jason Garrett.  They may not want to risk him getting away.  Jerry Jones made a coaching change after Jimmy Johnson won back-to-back Super Bowls.  While I would not be willing to be the farm on it, but I would not be shocked if the Cowboys make a change with Wade Phillips. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was: 

1) The Colts came up small Again – I know, I know.  I am being too hard on the amazing unbelievable Peyton Manning.  Supporters will say he had 402 yards passing and his defense failed him again.  I think he is an obvious First Ballot Hall of Famer and one of the All Time Greats.  I think he got the #### off his back by winning a Super Bowl last year.  That said the Colts consistently come up small in the playoffs.  Every QB has their bad playoff moments.  Favre had 6 interceptions against the Rams in 2001 in a 45-17 loss.  Tom Brady played poorly in a road playoff loss to the Broncos back in 2005 in which he had 2 picks and a 74.0 rating.  The result was a 27-13 loss.  People forget that Joe Montana lost 3 straight playoff games from 1985 to 1987 or that he posted a 39.2 QB rating in the 1993 AFC Championship Game.   John Elway was on the losing end of a 55-10 Super Bowl.  It’s impossible to play perfect in the postseason every year.  Every great one has a game they let get away.  Some people hold Peyton Manning to an impossible standard.  What is troubling about Peyton Manning is that these losses have come in the prime of his career at home where he is so good during the regular season.  For the third time in Manning’s career the Colts lost a home divisional round playoff game (1999, 2005, and 2007).  I’ll give Manning a pass on 1999.  That was his second year in the league and first playoff game.  But 2005 and 2007 were in the prime of his career when the Colts were 14-2 and 13-3 respectfully.  Over the past 5 seasons the Colts are 33-7 at home.  That is a stunning .825 winning percentage.  Yet their 2005 and 2007 seasons ended at home.  For Manning’s incredible 94.7 regular season career QB rating he has only an 84.4 rating in the postseason.  He is just 7-7 lifetime in the playoffs despite playing on 5 consecutive 12-win teams.  Only 3 times in 14 career playoff games has he had over 100.0 rating.  7 of the 14 games he has a rating under 80.0.  He has gone 7 straight games in the prime of his career with playoff games that have been under 100.0 rating.  The 2006 Colts are still the only team to win a Super Bowl in which their QB threw more interceptions than touchdowns during the playoffs.  For whatever reason Manning and the Colts play their best ball in September, not January.  The numbers don’t lie.  They average an amazing 28.6 points per game during the regular season from 2003-2007 and as I stated earlier have posted 12 or more wins every season.  However in the 4 playoff games the Colts lost in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2007 they only averaged 14.8 points per game in those playoff losses and only broke 20 points once.  Sunday’s loss was not about a poor rating as much as missed opportunities.  1 fumble, 2 interceptions, and a stopped on downs inside the 25 yard line.  That is 28 points left on the field.  That will not get the job done in January.  Not all of that was Manning’s fault.  There is plenty of blame to spread around on the offense.  But as the leader of the offense, fair or not, the blame starts with him.  The Chargers were down Rivers, Gates, and LT and still found a way to win on the road.  Manning did not play his worst game on Sunday, but he certainly did not play his best.  When you consider that after starting 14-14 he finished 19 for 34 it just was not an acceptable performance by someone that is capable of so much more.  While the defense was unable to stop the Chargers despite the fact that two of their best offensive players on the bench, the offense didn’t give them the lead they are accustomed too that allows them to tee off on the passer.  The Colts have invested the majority of their dollars on offense and are an offensive oriented team.  While their defense is good, it is not Ravens or Bears good.  It depends on the offense to give them a nice lead and make the opposing offense one-dimensional.  Manning is the leader of that offense and people expected Manning to have a great playoffs with that #### of best QB without a ring off his back.  This playoff setback hurts a lot of the good vibes he had built from last season’s playoff run and will continue to hurt him in the debate over who is the better QB, Brady or Manning, as well as his standing among the other All Time Greats. 

2) The Tony Romo Mexico Trip – I don’t blame Tony Romo for taking that trip as much as I blame the entire Dallas organization.  It starts with Jerry Jones and the two tickets to the NFC Championship Game that he gave every player before the game.  Not a good move from the top of the organization.  Next is Wade Phillips.  Romo is 27 years old and is only in his second year starting in the NFL.  He is a single male.  He has a 60 million dollar contract.  Every single male reading this blog would blow off their job to spend a week with Jessica Simpson in Mexico.  I blame Wade Phillips for endorsing that nonsense.  Do you think Darth Hood would have allowed Tom Brady to take that trip?  Do you think The Tuna would have allowed that fiasco?   That trip was a bad idea on so many levels.  Let me be crystal clear when I say that the Cowboys did not lose that game because Tony Romo was in Mexico during the off week.  That was an organizational meltdown.  They lost because they were 3-0 with 3 double-digit wins against NY Giants and Packers this season and thought their road to the Super Bowl was easy and secure.  After they beat the Packers they got complacent.  After they had 12 Pro Bowlers they felt satisfied.  They closed the season at 2-2 and did not play a good football game from November 29, 2007 until their season ended on January 13, 2008.  The reason Darth Hood is the best coach in the NFL is because he does not allow complacency like that to creep into his locker room, ever.  Not for one second.  Tom Brady gets spotted with his girlfriend walking the streets in New York City, not some resort in Mexico with the paparazzi to plaster his smiling face on every entertainment publication in the United States.  Tony Romo is not a bad person for using his celebrity to his advantage.  As I said, any guy reading this blog would jump at the opportunity to spend a few days in Mexico with Jessica Simpson.  You only get to go around this crazy world and Tony Romo would be a fool not to take advantage of the opportunities that being the Dallas Cowboys QB has presented to him.  However he has to know the line between creating a needless distraction before a playoff game and enjoying his celebrity.  When he can’t figure out where that line is it is his head coach’s responsibility to put his Cowboy Boot down.  The Cowboys ended the season flat and they needed someone to remind them of that.  Wade Phillips gave them the week to get away from football.  Why not, they had been away from football since November 29, 2007.  What is another week?  There is a reason this guy is 0-4 in the playoffs and it starts with how he mishandled the last month of the season after the Cowboys started 12-1.  That loss was more about what the Cowboys didn’t do than what the Giants did.  The Cowboys looked like they were playing a Week 5 regular season game, not the 2nd round of the playoffs.  Phillips went so far as to say the Cowboys had actually done the equivalent of winning a playoff game, because they had advanced to the second round.  Way to set the bar high.  Wade Phillips is a good X and O guy and comes across as a nice guy.  He is a player’s coach.  He also let his team get fat and that sleepy.  Tony Romo is a grown man and will have to live with the consequences of the perception people have of him due to the choices he made; but give Wade Phillips absolutely zero credit for putting his team and young QB in a mental position to win a playoff game.  He deserves as much blame as anyone.  Their has to be a very big Tuna having a very big laugh right now.

3) The Packers 14-0 comeback – This is an example of where good coaching paid off.  As a Packer fan I never went into panic mode when they got down 14-0.  The good thing for the Packers was that it happened so fast that they weren’t forced to abandon their game plan.  However, that was as bad of a start as you will ever see and is definitely something to be avoided.  I never saw them scoring 6 straight touchdowns to blow the game wide open.  That was an amazing performance for this young team.  It starts with Mike McCarthy not hitting the panic button and having the confidence to stick with Grant.  As obvious as that decision seemed, there are plenty of coaches that would have abandoned him.  I think the Thursday Night Football game against Dallas was very beneficial for this team.  While the perception is that this team has a lot of experience because they have a 17-year NFL veteran at QB, two thirds of the roster was playing in their first playoff game.  The Dallas game was kind of like a mini playoff game.  Rarely do you get a regular season game that has a playoff feel to it.  The Packers did not respond well to that pressure, abandoned their style and went to the long ball, and the result was the doors getting blown off the barn and a 27-10 deficit.  While they eventually recovered they still lost the game.  Had that been a playoff game their season would have been done.  Since that game the Packers have been a different team.  While Dallas peaked and was never the same Green Bay studied the film and made the adjustments.  The result is a better team and more confident team that is playing with a Championship Swagger.  The only bad game was the game they played in the tornado down in Chicago.  Personally, I don’t think they would have won that Seattle game had they not had the experience of the Dallas game.   Green Bay is probably the most dangerous team left in the playoffs as far as New England is concerned.  San Diego is a good matchup to begin with made even better with their injury situation.  The Giants gave them their best game and still lost.  They have a lot of injury issues in the secondary.  Both have good QBs, but not Hall of Fame QBs.  The Packers are the healthiest of the three teams, have a top 10 offense, a top 10 defense, and a future first ballot Hall of Fame QB.  They can score points with New England and have the corners to play man-to-man coverage on the Patriots wide receivers.  The Packers rushed for over 200 yards in their playoff game and for the second straight week.  I can’t even believe I’m typing that right now given where their running game was at the beginning of the season.  Both Green Bay and New England have to take care of business next week.  While the Chargers and Giants are not as good as the Packers or Patriots they are good enough to beat the Patriots and Packers if they don’t bring their A game.  If the favorites are able to survive it is going to set up for a historic Super Bowl matchup featuring Tom Brady and Brett Favre, two of the best QBs ever to play in the NFL. 

4) The Patriots run at Perfection – I have been saying all along that the Patriots will not steam roll through the playoffs.  The Jacksonville game was tied at 14-14 at half time and the Jaguars were in the game until the end.  What the Patriots do better than anyone else is take away what their opponent wants to do.  The Jaguars had the 2nd ranked rushing attack in the NFL and had scored 24 points or more in 11 straight games.  The Jaguars had 22 rushes for only 80 yards and no rushing touchdowns in their playoff game despite being tied at halftime.  Garrard was forced to beat the Patriots through the air and while he played well the Jags weren’t able to keep the Patriots offense off the field.  The result was 31 Patriot points and a passing clinic by Tom Brady.  The other thing they do is make you pay for mistakes.  The Jaguars only had one interception, but they needed to score touchdowns not field goals.  The margin for error against the Patriots is incredibly small.  It will be interesting to see how the Patriots fair in a rematch with the Chargers a team they destroyed back in Week 2.  I’m sure the priority will be to make the Chargers passing game beat them, especially if Rivers and Gates are limited. 

5) Eli Manning’s Big Playoff Run – Eli Manning showed me a lot.  I have been as critical as anyone of his poor play.  I never thought he would be able to play the football he has played in the playoffs.  He still is not elite to me, because the coaching staff would have had faith in him to put a ball in the air more than one time at the end of that playoff game.  While playoff wins are nice he needs to have a consistent regular season and be more than a game manger before he receives that type of status.  What Eli Manning has done is bought into the mistake free football concept and the result has been that he is making enough plays to win games and not putting their defense in a bad spot.  That is something that up until 3 weeks ago he had not shown the ability to do.  That is a very big stride for him.  If you would have told me in December that Eli Manning would be playing in the Championship Game and that Peyton Manning would not be I would have had a very good laugh.  Congratulations to Eli Manning and the wonderful playoff run the Giants are having.   His mistake free football is a very big reason why the Giants are still playing this weekend.

A Look Ahead:  During the season I picked what I viewed were the 5 most important games of the schedule.  For the playoffs I am doing all the games, as they obviously are all important.  I went 2-2 last weekend.  I was perfect on the Saturday games and went 0-2 on Sunday.   I thought the Colts would blow out the Chargers and that proved to be wishful thinking.  Here is how I see the Championship Round going. 

1) San Diego (13-5) at New England (17-0) – The Chargers can be a dangerous opponent for the Patriots.  They boast a top 5 scoring offense and defense.  Even though they were blown out in week 2 the Chargers are much improved.  Having Chris Chambers will be a big help for the Chargers.  I see two keys to this game.  1) Health.  If Rivers, LT, and Gates are not able to play close to 100% that is going to be a huge blow for the Chargers.  They are going to need to score in the 30s to win this game.  Injuries to those guys will greatly hinder that.  2) The Chargers defense gives up too many yards and relies on sacks and turnovers to stop the opposition.  Tom Brady is one of the best in the league at not doing those things.  I said that I didn’t think the Patriots would steamroll through the playoffs.  This is the one game I think they will be able to blowout, in part because the Chargers don’t match up well with the Patriots, and in part because the Chargers aren’t healthy enough at the right time.   I think the Chargers will keep the game competitive for a while, but in the end I think the Patriots will be too much.  Winner:  New England 38 San Diego 17

2) NY Giants (12-6) at Green Bay (14-3) – Green Bay matches up very well with the NY Giants.  Unlike Dallas who relies on downfield passing and allowed the pass rush to bother Tony Romo the Packers rely on short passes.  Those short passes out of the spread should neutralize the Giants pass rush.  The Giants secondary is very injured right now.  I don’t even know if they have 5 healthy corners to put on the field.  Ross was unable to finish the game and Sam Madison is injured as well.  Also Marion Barber III had a very good rushing day and Ryan Grant is running the ball as well as anyone right now.  The key for both teams is pressure on the QB and turnovers.  The Giants conservative style in the playoffs is resulting in scores in the low 20s.  I don’t think they can beat Green Bay scoring that few points.  The Giants are a good team that has played great at the end of the season, but the Packers are a better team that is playing even better and are on a mission to send Favre out a winner.  I think the Packers continue to protect the ball with the short passing game and strong running game.  I think the Packers are able to stop the Giants running game and match up well on the Giants receivers.  The key for Eli is that he has been playing with a lead or a small deficit.  If he gets behind by double digits he is going to have to go to the air more than 18 times and the Packers have the secondary to force turnovers.  While I think the Giants keep the game close for a half, I think Green Bay pulls away at the end.  Winner:  Green Bay 35 NY Giants 21

There you have it.  My Super Bowl pick was the Packers and the Patriots at the start of the playoffs and neither team did anything in their opening games to make me want to change picks.  I look forward to reading your comments.

What a great weekend of NFL football.  While not all the games were close there was at least intrigue in all 4 of the contest.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh definatley stole the show and gave us a game for the ages.  Here is my recap of the Wild Card Weekend:

Scores:  Seattle (10-6) 35  Washington (9-7) 14
                Jacksonville (11-5) 31 Pittsburgh (10-6) 29
                NY Giants (10-6) 24 Tampa Bay (9-7) 14
                San Diego (11-5) 17 Tennessee (10-6) 6

On Deck:   

Saturday:  Seattle (11-6) at Green Bay (13-3)
                   Jacksonville (12-5) at New England 16-0)

Sunday:   San Diego (12-5) at Indianapolis (13-3)
                  NY Giants (11-6) at Dallas (13-3) 

MVP of the Week:  The best performance of the wild card weekend was Maurice Jones-Drew.  While he only had 8 rushes for 29 yards, he had a rushing touchdown, a 43 yard receiving touchdown, and a 96 yard kickoff return that spotted the ball at the Pittsburgh 1 yard line.  The result was a Fred Taylor rushing touchdown on the very next play.  Jacksonville would need all of those big plays in their 31-29 victory. 

Game of the Week:  I think the Jacksonville victory over Pittsburgh victory was not only the best game of the weekend, but was an all time classic.  Pittsburgh scored a touchdown on their first possession to take a 7-0 lead, but Jacksonville raced out to 28-10 lead through 3 quarters.  Pittsburgh scored 19 unanswered points to take a 29-28 lead with 6:21 left in the game.  Garrard’s 32 yard run on 4th and 2 was as good of a play in a clutch moment as you will ever see.   It put Jacksonville in chip shot field goal range.  Jacksonville depleted Pittsburgh of both time and timeouts and kicked the go ahead field goal with just 37 seconds to play. 

Loser of the Weak:  Basically every team that lost has someone to blame.  Even though Big Ben redeemed himself with a terrific second half, his 3 first half interceptions were crucial in the Steelers demise.  Todd Collins, Clinton Portis, and Santana Moss were far from impressive in the 35-14 defeat to the Seahawks.  The Redskins were shutout for the first 3 quarters.  Portis was held to 52 yards on just 20 carries.  While Collins was able to throw four 4th quarter TDs two of them were to Seahawk defenders.   One of those was on a ball that Santana Moss quit on.  For Tampa Bay the disappointing thing had to be that Eli Manning went 20 for 27 with 2 touchdowns and 0 picks against the number one ranked pass defense.  Finally, Tennessee was only able to manage 2 field goals and 138 yards passing in their 17-6 loss to San Diego.

The Bay of Pigs:  This one is pretty easy as well.  I would go with Tennessee at San Diego.  The Titans led the first half 6-0 before the Chargers got their act together and scored 17 second half points to clinch the victory.  Tomlinson was held to 42 yards rushing in that game and Vince Young was held to 138 yards passing with one pick in his playoff debut.  He will benefit from this experience in just his 2nd year in the league. 

The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): The glaring bad decision was Mike Tomlin deciding to chase the score in the second half.  While I understand the temptation to make the game 25-28 instead of 24-28, once the holding penalty was called he should have kicked the extra point.  The chances of converting a two point conversion from the 13 yard line against a defense of Jacksonville’s caliber are slim to none and there was still 10:25 left in the 4th quarter.  The result was that when the Steelers scored again with 6:21 left in the game, they had to go for 2 points to make it a 3 point lead.  The second missed conversion created the difference in the game.  The game could have gone differently had Tomlin chose the other option.  Jacksonville could have gone for the TD at the end of the game instead of the field goal had the score been 31-28.  Furthermore Pittsburgh’s main reason for defeat was the 3 first half interceptions.   Still while going for the two point conversion from the 3 yard line was a debatable Monday Morning QB type play.  Going for it from the 13 yard line was not a very smart decision. 

Hospital Visit:  The big injury of the weekend was the toe injury to Antonio Gates.  He is in the doubtful to questionable range for next week’s showdown with the Indianapolis Colts.  The big question in the NFC is how healthy will TO be after 3 weeks of rest and what impact will that have on the divisional re rematch between the Giants and Cowboys. 

Coaching Carousel:  There were a few more changes since my last letter.  Cam Cameron was let go by the Miami Dolphins.  That is not a real big surprise.  Joe Gibbs resigned today which was somewhat of surprise.  He is definatley one of the classiest and succesful coaches this league has ever seen.  That leaves the total coaching vacancies at four (Atlanta, Baltimore,  Miami, and Washington).  Places to keep an eye on are Oakland, Seattle, and Tampa Bay.  Lane Kiffin had wanted to hire a new defensive coordinator to replace Rob Ryan, but was overruled by Al Davis.  It remains to be seen if that difference of opinion evolves into a volatile situation between Head Coach and Ownership.  Mike Holmgren has job security, but it has been speculated that he may want to take a year or two off.  This is very similar to the Bill Cowher situation last year.  Finally, Jon Gruden is entering the last year of his contract.  It remains to be seen if he can work out an extension or if he wants to come back as a lame duck coach.   

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was: 

1) Enough with the Eli Manning breakout game – As a person that has been very critical of the way Eli Manning played this year I have no problem saying that he surprised me with the poise he played with in the victory over Tampa Bay.  He deserves credit for playing composed football against a very tough defense that was number one in the NFL in pass yards allowed.  The Giants would not have won that game without Eli’s smart and consistent play.  That being said, I am getting annoyed with this being labeled as his breakout game or the game that validates his status as the franchise QB of the NY Giants.  Eli was 20 for 27 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns against 0 picks.  I’m sorry, but beating 9-7 Tampa Bay with those numbers isn’t a breakout game.  If that was Vince Young’s line in his first playoff game against the Chargers I would be very impressed.  This is a former number one overall pick and 4th year QB in his 3rd full year of starting.  This was his 3rd playoff game not his first.  Why is the bar set so low for this guy?  The fact that we are amazed that he completed passes with none of them being to the other team shows me just how awful this number one overall pick has been up to this point.  Brett Favre went 15 for 26 for 204 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick, including the game winning touchdown to Sterling Sharpe in his first playoff game.  Dan Marino was 21 for 32 for 421 yards with 4 touchdown and a pick in his 3rd playoff game to advance to the Super Bowl.  Joe Montana and Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in their 3rd postseason start.  While Petyon Manning struggled in his first 3 playoff starts he also had much stronger regular season numbers than Eli and had 5 touchdown passes in his 4th start.  All I ask is keep it in perspective.  It was a mostly mistake free game by a guy that has underachieved up to this point.  While it was a great win, 185 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Buccaneers is not validation that Eli Manning has arrived as a premier QB for the NY Giants or in the NFL. 

2) Momentum means something unless it doesn’t mean anything – It is interesting just how much or how little momentum means.  The Jaguars lost by 2 touchdowns to Houston by sitting most of their key guys, but still managed to play a great playoff game.  The NY Giants played all their guys in a meaningless game against the New England Patriots while Tampa rested their starters for 3 weeks hoping to be healthy.  New York appeared to be the sharper team.  However, Seattle rested their starters against Atlanta losing 44-41 in their season finale and played a team in the Washington Redskins that had won 4 straight games entering the postseason.  The result was a 35-14 victory for Seattle.  What it shows is that these playoff games are decided more by big plays, individual efforts, and unit matchups than they are by momentum heading into the playoffs.  Coaches are in a no win dilemma.  If they rest their guys to close the season and they lose their first playoff game the team was rusty.  If they play their guys in the season finale and lose in the first round their guys were tired and worn out.  Coaches have to have a pulse on their team and know what is best for them in that situation.  As long as a coach stays true to his philosophy and best interest of the team he knows he put his team in the best possible situation to win.

3) How important is playing impressive in the Wild Card Round – I always get a kick out of this.  Now that Seattle and New York dominated Washington and Tampa Bay everyone is speculating that these teams have an excellent shot of going into Green Bay or Dallas and keeping their dreams alive.   Because Jacksonville won a thriller in Pittsburgh they are primed to upset New England.  Because Dallas, Green Bay, Indy, and New England didn’t play this week they did nothing to improve their stock.  Meanwhile Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Diego, and Seattle all won which improves their resume.  Combine that with a three touchdown victory like Seattle had against Washington and they look primed to pull the upset in the next round.  The fact of the matter is that while it is always nice to win and win big in that opening round the Wild Card teams really don’t have a great shot of advancing past the Divisional Round.  In the last 10 years the home team is 30-10 in the Divisional Round.  Three of those 10 years the home teams swept the Divisional Round (1998, 2002, and 2004).  Only 3 times in that 10 year span did road teams as a whole manage to play .500 in the Divisional Round (2003, 2005, & 2006).   The reason for 2005 and 2006 is the top heavy nature of the AFC.  Furthermore, it doesn’t seem to matter if a team wins dramatically or wins decisively.  Take the 2002 Jets who opened the playoffs with a 41-0 stomping of the Indianapolis Colts in New York.  They followed up that great performance with a 30-10 loss at Oakland.  The 2003 Indianapolis Colts beat the Broncos 41-10 in Indy only to lose to the Patriots 20-3 the following week in New England.  The 2004 Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 31-17 in Green Bay only to travel to Philly and lose 27-14 the following week.  Even a dramatic victory doesn’t seem to help.  The 2003 Packers beat Seattle 33-27 in OT on an Al Harris interception only to lose the next week 20-17 in OT when they failed to stop a 4th and 26 with a 3 point lead late in the 4th quarter.   The fact is that most seasons the four top seeds have proven to be the more superior and consistent teams over the course of the 16 game season.  I believe that is especially the case this season.  That superiority combined with the week of rest will usually benefit them in these divisional round match ups.   While the 1997 Broncos and 2005 Steelers are great examples of teams coming together at the end of the season as wildcards what history shows us is that there is a better chance of one or none of the top seeds falling this weekend.

4) It is very difficult to win a playoff game – In any given year the most teams that can win just one playoff game is 8 (4 wildcard winners followed by 4-0 for the first round bye teams) and the least is 4 (assuming all 4 wild card teams won in the first and second rounds).  Fans, players, coaches, and management expect to win playoff games every season.  While the expectation is that your team should win a playoff game every year, the reality is that it is much harder than that.  Only 22 of the 32 NFL teams have won a playoff game this decade.   Prior to this weekend it was 20 out of 32.  That is amazing to me that with as much parity as there is in the NFL that there are that many franchises that have been unable to win a playoff game this decade.  As good as San Diego has been in recent years their playoff win on Sunday was their first since 1994.  The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996.  Jacksonville won their first playoff game on Saturday since 1999.  It isn’t just the Bengals and Cardinals that struggle to win playoff games although their struggle to win playoff games stems from their inability to reach the postseason.  Regardless, teams can not have a “Well there is always next year” mentality.  These opportunities are very scare and do not come along very often no matter how good the roster.  Age, injuries, coaching changes, and free agency can close a window of opportunity very quickly. 

A Look Ahead:  During the season I picked what I viewed were the 5 most important games of the schedule.  For the playoffs I am doing all the games as they obviously are all important.  I went 3-1 last weekend with my only slip up being the Tampa Bay and NY Giant game.  This is how I see the 4 games going this weekend. 

1) Seattle (11-6) at Green Bay (13-3) – These teams last playoff meeting was in 2003 when Al Harris returned an interception for a touchdown in OT to win the game.  That win was the last playoff win for the Green Bay Packers.  These two teams boast very talented and deep receiving cores.  They like to spread out the defense and hit a variety of different targets.  There are a couple keys that I see right of the bat.  Green Bay was 7-1 at home this season while Seattle was 3-5 on the road.  Seattle was outscored 176-180 on the road this season and their only win in double figures was a 23-3 Week 4 victory over San Fran.   They struggle without the lift they get from the 12th Man.  The two keys to this game are stopping the receiving cores from getting a lot of yards after the catch and not letting Ryan Grant or Shaun Alexander add balance to the offense.  Whoever does better with that should win.  I think Grant is playing better than Alexander, I like the Packers receivers better, and I like how Green Bay plays at home while I am not sold on Seattle on the road.  I look for Green Bay to win a competitive game.  Winner:  Green Bay 31 Seattle 24

2) Jacksonville (12-5) at New England (16-0) – This is probably the worst possible matchup the Patriots could have drawn in the Divisional Playoff Round.  On paper Jacksonville has everything you need to beat New England.  A defense that can slow down New England and a great running game to control the clock and keep Brady and Moss off the field.  However, Big Ben was able to pass Pittsburgh back into a game the Steelers trailed 28-10.  If Jacksonville wants to beat New England they are going to have to play 60 minutes of football not 45 minutes.  The best thing that could happen for Jacksonville would be for the weather to be like it was for the Packers at Chicago back in December.  The windier, colder, and nastier the weather is the better Jacksonville’s chances.  That seems funny seeing the Jags reside is sunny Florida and New England is used to these bad weather contest.  However, when you look at the Miami and NY Jet scores and how different these teams are in offensive style, weather could be a big factor.  I still like New England.  They were my preseason pick to win the AFC and have done nothing to change my mind.  While I wouldn’t be shocked if Jacksonville won, I don’t think they will score enough to keep up with New England.  Winner: New England 35 Jacksonville 24

3) San Diego (12-5) at Indianapolis (13-3) – I think this will be the most lopsided game of the weekend.  The Chargers needed a gift to beat Indy earlier in the season despite 6 Peyton Manning interceptions.  I don’t see Peyton repeating that performance especially at home.  While San Diego was 4-4 on the road it was because of that excuse for a division known as the AFC West.  San Diego was 3-0 on the road against the AFC West and 1-4 outside of the division.  The Chargers struggled to score against the Titans.  Statistically the Colts are a better defense and have an offense that actually helps them.  When you combine that with Gates probably missing this game it starts to look ugly for San Diego.  The Colts will be able to put 8 in The Box to contain LT and should be able to cover the Charger receivers down field without the threat of Gates over the middle.  Manning has struggled against the 3-4 in the past but I think that speaks more to how good the Steelers and Patriots have been on defense than problems with that particular scheme.  He should make enough plays to win this game.  Winner: Indianapolis 33 San Diego 10

4) NY Giants (11-6) at Dallas (13-3) – The NY Giants are an interesting team in this spot.  For one they play their best football on the road as they are 8-1 at home as opposed to 4-4 at home.  They played well in a loss to New England in the season finale and used that game to springboard them to a victory over Tampa Bay.  Furthermore, even though their one road loss was at Dallas, Eli Manning probably played his best game of the year there.  As usual the key for the Giants will be that Eli plays well.  On the Dallas side it is still uncertain whether TO will play and at what percent he will be operating.  That is critical in deciding this contest.  The old saying is that it is hard to beat a team 3 times in one season.  It should be an old saying, because it hasn’t happened much in recent history.  Since the 1970 merger there has been 17 occasions where teams met for a 3rd time in the same season where one of the teams had gone 2-0 on the regular season.  13 of those 17 occasions have occurred since 1990 when the league expanded to the 6 team playoff format.  The 2-0 team is 11-6 overall and 9-4 since 1990.  The saying should be it is hard to beat a team you have already lost to twice.  When you look at those 4 occasions where the 0-2 team won since 1990:  3 of the 4 times the 2-0 team won a blowout in the opener and a 7 point game or less late in the season.  In 2004 Green Bay beat Minnesota 34-31 on game winning field goals before beating Green Bay in the postseason.  The NY Giants played well but ultimately lost by double digits to Dallas in both contests.  As I stated above TO’s health is going to be huge.  He had 9 catches for 212 yards and 4 touchdowns in the two Dallas wins.  The Cowboys need his production to open up the field for other weapons and come out ahead in this game.  Given his history of being a quick healer, I expect TO to be ready and to play well.  Winner:  Dallas 28 NY Giants 20

There you have it.  Not really going out on a limb as I think the higher seeds will win all four contest.  I have thought these 4 teams were head and shoulders above the rest of the league all season.  No sense in changing my position on that now.  In addition to my Newsletter this week I a