This is my seventh of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The AFC West was probably the most disappointing division in 2007. The AFC West combined to go 10-22 on the road. The AFC West had a combined 14-26 record out of division. The Chargers were expected to compete for the Super Bowl after going 14-2 in 2006. They started 5-5, before winning their last 6 games to close the season and advance to the AFC Championship Game. The Denver Broncos were a big player in free agency and were supposed to compete with the Chargers for the division. They were a very disappointing 7-9. The Chiefs were going through a youth moment and while making the playoffs again was not necessarily expected, they fell from 9-7 to 4-12. Finally, you have the Raiders who actually exceeded many people’s expectations, but just didn’t have enough talent to win more than 4 games.

The AFC West has been owned by the San Diego Chargers the last couple seasons. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC West.

1) San Diego Chargers

07 Record: 11-5

Points Scored: 412(5th)

Points Allowed: 284 (5th)

Playoff Result: Lost AFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 108-148 (.422) (31st in NFL)

Strengths: The Chargers have done an excellent job in recent years drafting players and the result is a team that has a lot of strengths. They used those to advance to the AFC Championship Game, despite the injuries they had to Rivers, LT, and Gates. It was a very inspiring effort that they should be applauded for. Therefore, the Chargers had the luxury of not having to be active in free agency and being able to use their draft picks to sure up depth.

Let’s start with the defense, which was the strength of the 2007 season. The Chargers terrorized quarterbacks in 2007. They ranked 5th in sacks with 42. Shawne Merriman has become a premier pass rusher. Many people thought he had a down year and he still recorded 12.5 sacks. Shaun Phillips had 8.5 sacks and flies under the radar with Merriman grabbing most of the attention. Stephen Cooper is going to have to sit the first four games of the NFL season, which does not help an inside linebacker position that is not the strength of the defense to begin with.

The Chargers ranked 1st in quarterback rating allowed at 70.0. Their high number of interceptions drove that. They had a league best 30 interceptions, 8 more than the second place teams Indianapolis and Tennessee. To put that in perspective, 14 interceptions, which are 8 less than Indy and Tennessee ranked 23rd in the NFL. The Chargers were in a class by themselves. Antonio Cromartie had a lot to do with that as he recorded a league best 10 interceptions despite only starting eight games. Antoine Cason was added to the defensive backs as a first round pick and should help the Chargers nickel and dime packages. You can never have enough defensive backs in a playoff game against the Colts and Patriots.

On offense, LT didn’t have a record setting year, but he still was amazing. He managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,474 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and a league best 15 rushing touchdowns. That speaks to how well the Chargers offensive line played, especially in the second half of the season. Gates was also great last season. He had 984 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. The interesting thing to watch will be how Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson do now that they have a full year together. Jackson came close, but failed to record a 100-yard game in 2007. He had no multi touchdown games. Chris Chambers did neither of those things in his Charger career. If the Chargers are going to finally contend for the Super Bowl they need to get more production out of their wide receivers. They are receiving almost exclusively single coverage and need to make teams pay for that.

On special teams Darren Sproles is a very dangerous return man. Mike Scifres is a very solid punter and Nate Kaeding has been a mainstay among the best kickers in the league the last two seasons.

Weaknesses: The Chargers had two main weaknesses in 2008. They weren’t very solid against the run, at times. While they ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed; part of that was because Adrian Peterson recorded a 295-yard game against them. If you take that game out, they are closer to the top 10. Still, in the playoffs Maroney had 122 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Some weeks the Chargers were great against the run. Other weeks they got run over. They need to be a little more consistent in that regard.

The bigger weakness is the same thing it was entering last season with a couple wrinkles. Is Philip Rivers the real deal? He did not have a good follow up to his Pro Bowl season. He went from 3,388 yards to 3,152 yards. He went from 22 touchdowns to 21 touchdowns. He went from 9 interceptions to 15. His completion percentage went from 61.7 to 60.2. He went from a rating of 92.0 to 82.4. He just didn’t improve in any area. He also gained a reputation for being a head case and yelling at fans. That was particularly evident in the Colts playoff game. He needs to tone that down and act like a solid professional and a leader of the team. He has too much talent for people to be talking about that instead of his play.

The wrinkle in the Chargers offense is all the injuries the Chargers are coming back from this season. Tomlinson had just two carries in the AFC Championship Game and while his knee did not require surgery there are still concerns when knee injury and LT are mentioned in the same sentence. That makes the loss of Turner to the Falcons even more significant. Hester was drafted out of LSU to team with Sproles to fill that void. Gates has a toe problem that has his status for the opener in doubt. Rivers had an ACL injury that was expected to have six months of recovery time. He is hopeful for training camp.

It is never good to have one star player coming off injury. To have three injury question marks to the three best players on the offense is a huge concern. The Chargers need to hope these guys are ready by the opener. Without those three being healthy the Chargers will struggle to win even the weak AFC West.

Prediction: If the Chargers were in another division, I would have more concerns. They couldn’t have started worse in 2007. They started 1-3 and they still won the division by 4 games. The Broncos have too many issues on run defense and at their skill positions they are still not proven. The Raiders and Chiefs have too many issues to list. The Chargers have the second easiest schedule in the NFL and that will serve them well if their players are a little slow to get back into the groove. They open with Carolina, at Denver, NY Jets, at Oakland, and at Miami. That is a schedule they should be able to maneuver even if a few players are slow to get back. I could see the Chargers being a strong second half team similar to last year.

What I do think the injuries prevent the Chargers from doing is having a better record than the Jags and Patriots. If they had everyone healthy and ready to go, I probably would have had them with a better record than the Patriots. They should still win the AFC West, but still have to open up the playoffs in the first round at home and travel in the second round. Based on my predictions that would be to New England. That could make advancing to the Super Bowl a difficult task, which at this point is the only Charger obstacle not yet hurdled.

San Diego Chargers’ Record: 12-4 – AFC West Divisional Champion; AFC #3 Seed

2) Denver Broncos

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 320 (21st)

Points Allowed: 409 (28th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 114-142 (.445) (29th in NFL)

Strengths: The Broncos have a nice young nucleus of offensive players. Jay Cutler is only 25 years old. He passed for 3,497 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first full year starting. He posted an 88.1 rating. Brandon Marshall had 102 receptions for 1,325 yards. He is only 24 years old. Tony Scheffler had 549 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns at the tight end spot. He is only 25 years old. Finally, with Travis Henry gone Selvin Young looks to take over the number one spot. He turns 25 in October.

That gives the Broncos a nice nucleus of young players to grow around. They need to start getting younger on the offensive line, which they did by selecting Ryan Claddy. The Broncos zone-blocking scheme is being copied through out the league. A top 10 rushing offense is something that is taken for granted in Denver. Even with their running woes in 2007 they managed to finish 9th in yards gained on the ground.

On defense, the Broncos finished in the top 10 in passing yards allowed. That is expected when the secondary features the corner duo of Bailey and Bly. Lync h is starting to get a little older, but still supports the run well. DJ Williams is a promising young linebacker that struggled as the middle linebacker. He is expected to play full time on the weak side, which will suit his strengths much better. Boss Bailey was brought in giving the Broncos great speed at the outside linebacker spot.

Finally, there is Mike Shanahan. He has been the Broncos headman since 1995. The only coach with a longer tenure is Jeff Fisher, who replaced Jack Pardee at the end of the 1994 season. Shanahan has had only two losing seasons since he arrived in Denver. The last time he had a losing record the Broncos bounced back with 11 wins the following year.

Ted Sundquist was fired as the GM, a role he held since 2002. Mike Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings and a lot of experience. The Broncos are under pressure to win this year. They have only been in one AFC Championship Game since 1998. The Broncos are expecting that he will turn out a winner soon. If the Broncos regress in 2008, Shanahan’s job may be in jeopardy.

Weaknesses: Run defense. Plain and simple this kept the Broncos from being a playoff team in 2007. They ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed. The front 4 could not keep anyone from ramming the ball down their throat. That really hurt Bailey and Bly who anchored the 7th ranked pass defense, but had only 8 interceptions. That was 6 less than the 14 interceptions Bailey and Williams combined for in 2006. If the Broncos can stop the run better, Bailey and Bly should see their pick totals go up. If they can’t teams will keep the ball on the ground to stay away from Denver’s potent playmaker duo.

They also need to get a better pass rush from their front 4. Elvis Dumervil had 12.5 sacks. The next best individual sack total was a mere four sacks. That just isn’t going to get the job done. That is another reason Bailey and Bly didn’t excel in 2007. Defensive backs rely on pressure from the front seven to put pressure on the quarterback and force bad decisions. The Broncos didn’t go out and sign a marquee free agent on the defensive line. They have drafted a number of young defensive linemen in the past few drafts. They took the approach of hoping their younger players would improve and brining in non household name talent.

The other problem that confronted the Broncos was their redzone scoring. The Broncos ranked 11th in yards gained, 13th in passing yards gained, and 9th in rushing yards gained. The problem was that they ranked only 18th in rushing touchdowns and 16th in passing touchdowns. That produced the 21st ranked scoring offense.

The Broncos released Travis Henry due to his off the field issues and still have some good backs in place. Selvin Young ranked 3rd among rookie rushers and started only 8 games. Andre Hall showed signs of promise. Michael Pittman is a veteran that was signed to give the team some experience. One of these guys needs to emerge and the most probable candidate is Young. A good running game and a strong offense will go a long way to helping out the Broncos run defense stay off the field and playing with a lead.

Finally, this team has a glaring special teams weakness for the first time in many years. Jason Elam is no longer with the team. Matt Pratter takes his place and he has some big shoes to fill. Elam had been with the Broncos since 1993. He won many close games for the Broncos with clutch kicks last year. That was evident last year. It remains to be seen if the Broncos win some of the close games they have taken for granted for so many years or if Pratter is not up to the task.

Prediction: The Broncos are moving in the right direction. They had to take a step back by going with the young quarterback in Cutler and leaving the inconsistent experience of Jake Plummer. While that means they have missed the playoffs for two straight years, Cutler gives this team a chance to compete for the Super Bowl down the road, something they never could have done with Plummer.

The problem is that the run defense collapsed overnight. Denver went from 12th against the run in 2006 to 30th in 2007. The Broncos really haven’t done anything to fix that problem. In a division with LT, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that is a risky proposition. All the teams in this division would love nothing more than to stay committed to the running game.

I think the Broncos will compete with the Browns and Titans for the final playoff spot. I think Cutler, Marshall, and Young will all have a big year. I also think the Broncos have to many issues with their running game. I look for the Broncos to better their 2007 record, but miss the playoffs by a game to the Browns. The Browns’ defense is nothing to write home about, but their offense is a lot more explosive.

Denver Broncos’ Record: 9-7 – AFC West 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Oakland Raiders

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 283 (23rd)

Points Allowed: 398 (26th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 112-142 (.438) (30th in NFL)

Strengths: The Raiders actually made a lot of strides in 2007. The coaching staff and players got along much better than they did in 2006. That is why it is surprising that Al Davis would be fighting with his young coach, Lane Kiffin after his first year on the job. While Al Davis is a hard owner to predict, there is no way that a reasonable owner would have expected more than 4-6 wins with the mess Kiffin took over. Kiffin had no NFL experience and was taking over a team that had scored just 168 points the year before. While 283 points scored ranked only 23rd, that was nine spots higher than 2006. The Raiders won 4 games and were competitive in 6 others. That was done without the benefit of their first round pick JaMarcus Russell. He threw only 66 passes last season. I would say Kiffin got good results out of the offense and the team in general.

The offense has the potential to be even better in 2008. Darren McFadden appears to be the real deal. He has everything you could ask for. Speed, strength, and a good running style. Don’t expect him to have the year Peterson had in 2007, simply because the Oakland line is nowhere near the Minnesota line. McFadden is signed and will be in camp on day one. He has the talent to make an immediate impact. If he is slow to start off with, don’t forget that Justin Fargas had 1,009 yards rushing last season. The Raiders have a nice backfield in place.

The Raiders tried to upgrade the receiving core by signing Javon Walker to a $55 million dollar contract. That was the theme of the Raider offseason, Just Spend Baby!!! I think Walker will upgrade the receiving core, but remember he has had 2 knee injuries since 2005, plus the Williams incident in Denver and the new Las Vegas incident where he sustained serious injuries in a robbery. Plus, I have read reports that he didn’t show up in the best of shape to Raider workouts in May, something that was a disappointment given the money Oakland threw his way. How he does in 2008 is anything but a certainty at this point.

The pass defense should be strong again. The Raiders gave up the 8th fewest passing yards in the NFL and the 4th fewest passing touchdowns. Signing Wilson away from the Giants and trading for Hall from the Raiders really gives a boost to their secondary. They lost Washington to the Ravens in a trade, but still appear to have a very strong secondary in place.

Weaknesses: The Raiders success on pass defense is somewhat of a mirage. Yes they have some good talent there. But when your team gives up the second most rushing yards in the NFL, the most yards per attempt, and the most rushing touchdowns teams aren’t going to waste their time throwing the ball. Keep in mind that teams passed the ball the second fewest times against Oakland. Even a team like Green Bay that relied heavily on the pass was able to basically rest Favre coming off an injury against the Cowboys when they played the Raiders. Favre threw the ball just 23 times in a 38-7 victory as Ryan Grant gashed them for a regular season high 29 carries and 156 yards.

If the Raiders are going to compete in this division with LT, Denver’s running system, and Larry Johnson they have to be able to stop the run. They signed Thomas Kelly to a record contract for a defensive lineman, something that was boggling to the mind. Warren Sapp is gone from the fold this year. He was clearly on the downside of his career. Still, the Raiders really didn’t address the defensive line, which is the most important part of the run defense.

On offense, the passing game is going to really struggle at times this year. Russell had only 66 attempts in 2007, so he is going to be learning on the job. I’ve already talked about Walker’s question marks. After him and Curry there isn’t a lot of proven talent at the receiving core. Zach Miller is a young emerging tight end. The first year of starting for a quarterback is always a difficult chore. With a below average receiving I expect Russell to show signs of greatness, but also struggle quite a bit.

Prediction: Things are getting better for Oakland. They are getting a young nucleus of players on offense and are starting to bring some talent in on defense. The Raiders and Jets were the most active teams in free agency and fans are going to be excited that a winning season is near.

They still have a few problems. San Diego has a young nucleus in place and is not ready to surrender the division to Oakland. Denver also has a young nucleus on offense and while they have their own troubles on defense they have better receivers, offensive line, and secondary. It is going to be hard for the Raiders to break through that in 2008.

However, I only see the Chargers window being open for a couple more seasons. Once LT turns 30 they are going to have some big question marks. Denver could be going through a coaching change if Shanahan doesn’t make it back to the playoffs. Whoever can draft the best between Kansas City and Oakland will be in an excellent position to shoot toward the top of the division in 2009 or 2010. Oakland has a head start, because the hardest thing to find is the quarterback. The Chiefs don’t look like they have found their quarterback, which is worse than the Raiders who are still determining if they have found theirs. As it stands right now though they will play teams competitive, probably win some games against the likes of Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo, Atlanta, but still hover around the 6-10 mark.

Oakland Raiders’ Record: 6-10 – AFC West 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Kansas City Chiefs

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 226 (31st)

Points Allowed: 335 (14th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 116-140 (.453) (26th in NFL)

Strengths: The Chiefs were not expected to do much after having an absolutely terrible preseason and Larry Johnson holding out until the start of the season. They started off 4-3 and looked like they might be able to compete in a division that saw San Diego and Denver struggle out of the gates. Larry Johnson would get hurt in game number eight, which they lost to the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs lost another eight games to close the season.

One thing the Chiefs had was a pretty nice pass defense last season. They finished ranked 5th in passing yards allowed. They also finished 9th in sacks. They were also 14th in points allowed. However, you can throw all that out the window, because their best defender, Jared Allen, is no longer with the team. He led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and was the team’s best defender. He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings before the draft for draft picks.

The Chiefs went with a youth movement and the result was one of the best drafts in the NFL. They should be better than 28th against the run. Glenn Dorsey is one of the best defensive tackle prospects to come out of college in a number of years and he should immediately help them in that regard. Brandon Flowers should also help the passing game from the cornerback position as he replaces Ty Law.

On offense many people expected the Chiefs to struggle through the air in 2007. The Chiefs have some good targets that put up solid numbers, despite their QB woes. Tony Gonzalez is still among the most productive tight ends in the NFL. He led all tight ends in receiving yards and had five touchdowns. Dwayne Bowe finished five yards shy of a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. He also had five touchdowns.

They are hoping that Brandon Albert can help improve the offensive line and that Jammal Charles can help give them another back to spell Larry Johnson. The Chiefs could have as many as three rookie starters (Dorsey, Albert, and Flowers) as well as Charles, tight end Brad Cottam, and safety DeJaun Morgan contributing as backups. The Chiefs are in a full blown rebuilding project.

Weaknesses: Last year I said this about Herm Edwards in my 2007 AFC West predictions, “It took Herman Edwards exactly one year to ruin this offense. After finishing in the top 5 for offensive yardage ever season of the Vermeil era and first, first, second, and sixth in points, Herman Edwards destroyed this offense. It dropped to 15th in both yards and points in his first year with most of the same players. As usual, the problem was Herm Edwards refusal to embrace the passing offense, which ranked 22nd last season.”

Kansas City fans weren’t happy about that and I admit that I was wrong. While the passing offense was not a strength when compared to other NFL teams it was actually the strength of this offense. I don’t think a lot of people would have guessed the Chiefs would finish 30th in rushing attempts, 32nd in rushing yards, 31st in yards per carry, and tied for 31st in rushing touchdowns.

Part of that was losing Larry Johnson. When he is healthy he is among the best backs in all of football. Remember though that he is going to be 29 and had 5 games where he was held under 60 yards in 2007.

The Chiefs did a horrible job of preparing for life without Roaf and Shields and now they have a line that cannot control the line of scrimmage. Their inability to block is hampering the running game. They can’t get their quarterbacks into favorable 3rd down situations. When you combine those problems with Herm Edwards conservative offense it has created a situation where this team can’t score any points.

The Chiefs tried to address that by drafting Albert. He is going to take a couple seasons for him to develop. He may be moving from guard to tackle, which is a very difficult transition for any player, much less a rookie. The Chiefs still have a lot of questions on the offensive line.

It’s hard to predict the offense is going to step up when you don’t even know which bad quarterback is going to emerge. Huard played bad last year and Croyle played worse. Croyle is whom they want to start, as he was a 3rd round pick in 2006. There gets to be a point where you cease to be a young quarterback and become a bad quarterback instead. Year 3 is the year that the NFL brain trust identifies as the year that young quarterbacks should start to see things slow down and be able to make plays. If he doesn’t emerge the Chiefs are going to have to think about taking a quarterback in the first round next year. Damon Huard is going to be 35 years old and not the quarterback you want to build a young team around.

Prediction: I thought the Chiefs had a great draft. In my opinion it was the best in the NFL. That said, I also maintain the Colts and Patriots could have had the best draft in the NFL had they traded Brady or Manning. The only reason the Chiefs had the best draft is they traded their best player in Jared Allen. While that may turn out to be a great move for the future, it doesn’t necessarily translate into winning a lot of games the following year.

The Chiefs just don’t have a lot of good things going for them now. They used to have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They don’t anymore. Johnson used to be the second best back in football. He is barely a top 10 back right now. Croyle and Huard are below average quarterbacks. The defense is rebuilding. This is a team in transition.

I look for Gonzalez and Bowe to have good seasons. I think Johnson will have a rebound year. Not like what we saw in 2005 and 2006, but 1,000 to 1,100 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. But what gains they make on offense are going to be offset by a rebuilding defense that lost its best player. If they had Baltimore’s schedule I wouldn’t pick them to win more than 3 games. The lack of strength in their division and their relatively easy schedule should get them to 5 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs’ Record: 5-11 – AFC West 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

With the NFC in the books, I turn to the more powerful of the two conferences.  In the AFC 12-4 wasn't even good enough to get a first round bye last season.  With so many powerful teams in the AFC, it should be another year where 9-7, possibly 10-6 doesn't get you into The Party.   To start my breakdown of the AFC, here is how I see the AFC West playing out this season. 

Denver Broncos

Strengths:  The Broncos have a lot of good things going for them.  Let's start with the offensive line.  The Denver offensive line has helped produce a 1,000 yard rusher on a regular basis.  Whether it is Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, or most recently Tatum Bell, the Broncos are always among the top 10 teams in the league in rushing.  This year they add an experienced running back to the mix in Travis Henry.  While he has never been able to find a long term home, he has been a very productive player.  He has posted three 1,000 yard seasons and has a 4.1 career yard per carry average.  He seems like a perfect fit for this system.  Another of the many strengths of this team is the secondary.  Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, John ####, and whoever, in this case Nick Ferguson, form one of the most talented defensive backfields in the NFL.    The receiver position also looks good.  Javon Walker is an emerging star, Rod Smith is still a productive player, and Brandon Stokely is a nice third option.  Signing Daniel Graham should help the tight end position.  The offense has the potential to score a lot of points.

Weaknesses:  The main weakness is the same as it has been since 1998.  Have the Broncos found a long term replacement for John Elway?  At least Mike Shanahan had the vision to realize Jake the Snake was not going to take him to the Promised Land.  While that may not be much of a vision, there are plenty of coaches that would have sat pat with the veteran, scared to turn the reigns of a perennial playoff team over to a rookie.  Mike Shanahan is not afraid to tinker with his lineup, which is why he has been able to keep his job.  While playing Jay Cutler might have cost him a chance at the playoffs last year, that valuable playing time should help the Broncos this season.  However, until he steps on the field and proves he is a long term answer, the position will remain a question mark.  The defense was a mix of good and bad last season.  Through the first six games, the Broncos were only giving up 8.5 points per game.   However, by seasons end they had slipped to 8th in the league with 19.1 points per game.  While their rushing defense was a respectful 12th, the pass defense slipped to 21st.  That is one reason they drafted Moss, Crowder, and Thomas on the defensive line.  The Broncos need to get more of a pass rush to take the pressure off their talented secondary.  The Broncos will miss Al Wilson, who they chose to release due to serious injury.  

Prediction:   This is a pretty easy division to pick.  Most people with a pulse are either going to go with Denver or San Diego.  I really like both teams.  Denver has so much upside.  They didn't make a lot of sexy acquisitions this offseason, but they really improved themselves.  They got better at running back and tight end.  Cutler should progress into a very nice starting quarterback.  They got younger and more athletic on the defensive line.  They were able to make the best out of a terrible situation by replacing Williams with Bly in the secondary.  The schedule looks really nice.  Anytime you draw the NFC North, there are going to be positives.  They close out the season against Oakland, Kansas City, Houston, San Diego, and Minnesota.  That is 4 very winnable games.  Their toughest games outside of the division are at Indy and at Chicago.  Every other game on the out of division schedule is winnable.  Denver was 7-2 to start last season, before the Jake Plummer collapse became too much of a burden.  By the time Cutler became comfortable, the defense had dropped off, and they missed the playoffs in a brutal AFC.  They will be better off this season, because Cutler shouldn't have September growing pains.  This team is only a year removed from the 12-4 AFC runner up team.  They have made a lot of good changes and have one of the top two or three head coaches in all of football.  While I don't look for them to get a first round bye, I see no reason why they can't take back this division.    
 
Record:  12-4, AFC West Division Title, AFC #3 seed
 
San Diego Chargers

Strengths:  When you have a running back score 31 touchdowns in a season, its hard to not start by talking about him. Tomlinson had a season for the record books.  The Chargers led the league in points last year, and were 7th in yards.  Tomlinson rushed for 1,815 yards, 28 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns.  It was one of the most amazing seasons a running back has ever seen.  As if that weren't enough, he even threw for a couple touchdowns.  Even Michael Turner chipped in with another 500 yards on the ground.  Antonio Gates had a great season has well.  He finished with 71 catches, 924 yards, and 9 touchdowns.  Phillip Rivers also had a fantastic first year starting, and was selected to the Pro Bowl.  The thing about the Chargers is that the success doesn't stop on the offensive side of the ball.  They ranked 7th in points allowed and 10th in yards given up.  Merriman would have been he defensive player of the year, had it not been for his 4 game suspension.  Merriman recorded 16.5 sacks, despite missing 4 games.  When you go 14-2, there are going to be a lot of things that go right.            

Weaknesses:  Even though the Chargers were 14-2, they still had some weaknesses last season.  The most glaring weakness was the wide receiver core.  While it's hard to get the receivers involved when Gates and Tomlinson are so productive, these receivers simply did not carry their weight.  Eric Parker was their leading receiver with 48 catches for 659 yards.  He didn't score a touchdown last season.  Six Charger wide receivers as a whole had 126 catches for 1,779 yards and 9 touchdowns last season.  To put that in perspective, Jerry Rice's 1995 season saw him catch 122 catches for 1,848 yards and 15 touchdowns.  This group needs to improve if the Chargers want to get to the Super Bowl.  The Chargers addressed this area by drafting Craig Davis in the first round.  However, if you have been reading my blog at all, you know that I don't expect much out of first year receivers, because traditionally they don't put up big numbers in their rookie season.  The other area the Chargers need to address in the secondary.   While the Chargers were a respectable 13th in passing yards allowed, Jammer led the secondary with 4 picks.  The Chargers as a team had only 16 interceptions.  If the Chargers can make more plays in the secondary this season, it should give their offense a chance to score even more points.      

Prediction: The difference in schedule is a slight advantage for Denver.  San Diego gets New England and Baltimore instead of the Steelers and Bills.   I know there are a lot of Charger fans that are not going to like this, but I don't see the Chargers winning the division this season.  Here are my 3 major concerns. 1) How do the Chargers handle the coaching changes?  Say what you want about Marty ball, but it wins in the regular season.  Not only did they lose Marty, but they lost all of the coaching staff.  Norv Turner has proven to be an excellent coordinator, but a very average head coach.  I think the coaching changes hurt San Diego this season. 2) How do the Chargers address the lack of depth at wide receiver?  True, they did just fine without it last season.  However, is LT going to have 31 touchdowns again this year?  While I still see him as the best back in the league, I think seasons like last season are once in a lifetime accomplishments.  I look for LT to have 1700 + yards, 15 touchdowns, and another 50 catches for 500 yards and a couple touchdowns.  That still means that other players on the team will have to make up that difference in touchdowns.  Besides Gates, I don't see anyone capable of doing that. 3) Repeating 14-2 seasons is very difficult.  Indy was 14-2 in 05 and slipped 12-4 in 06. The Patriots had back to back 14 win seasons in 03 and 04, and then fell to 10-6 in 05.  The Rams went from 14-2 in 01 to 7-9 the following season.   The only teams I can think of that put multiple seasons like that together are the 89 and 90 49ers and the 03 and 04 Patriots.  We are talking about two of the better dynasties in NFL history.  The Chargers are not at that level.  Most teams will slip, if for nothing else, because they have no where to go but down.  I think the Chargers will have an exciting offense this season, a terrific defense, and will win a lot of games.  I think they make the playoffs.  However, I don't think they are 14-2 again.  I think they take a slight step back, because duplicating the things that went right last season would be almost impossible. 

Record: 11-5, 2nd AFC West, AFC #5 seed 

Oakland Raiders

Strengths:  None.  Okay, I'm just kidding.  It isn't quite that bad in Oakland.  Still, when you are 2-14 on the season, there isn't a lot going right.  The Raiders ranked 1st in pass defense last season and were 3rd in total yards.  However, they were 25th in rushing yards allowed and 18th in points allowed.  The reason for these discrepancies is that teams figured out fairly early on that you didn't need to gamble against the Raiders.  Run the ball and punt if you have to.  The offense won't do anything anyway.  Just don't turn the ball over like Big Ben did for the Steelers, and you have a better than average shot.  When the offense is only scoring 10.5 points per game, there really isn't any need to score points in bunches and take unnecessary gambles.  The defense does have some nice parts.  Sapp can still play.  Washington and Huff make up a promising young secondary.   However, the Raiders are a long ways away from having a defense that rivals the Bears and Ravens.  A lot of its success was due to teams just not taking a lot of chances.      
 
Weaknesses:  This blog isn't long enough to list all the problems the Raiders had on offense last season.  Last in points.  Last in yards.  Last in everything.  They had a bed and breakfast manager disguised as an offensive coordinator.  The Raiders were smart in trying to get some fresh blood into this team.  Get a young guy from a successful offense, even if it was a college offense.  While there were many more qualified people than Lane Kiffin, he has coached with Pete Carroll and may be just what the doctor ordered for this young roster.  Many of the more successful coordinators would have balked at accepting the job.  What do the Raiders have to lose buy giving this guy a shot?  The Raiders did some nice things to improve their offense this season.  They drafted JaMarcus Russell for starters.  While rookie QBs don't usually take the league by storm, he can't be worse than the clowns that tried to play QB last season.  Jordan and Rhodes should be a nice one two punch at running back.  Zach Miller was a nice addition that should be able to contribute immediately at tight end.  Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry are not Harrison and Wayne, but they can be productive wide receivers.  The Raiders were smart to get rid of Moss. He was unhappy with the losing and the Raiders are not ready to compete this season.  He would have soured a young team.  Cut your losses and move on.  While this still isn't one of the best offenses in the league, the team is moving in the right direction, and hopefully will not repeat as the worst offensive unit in the league.  

Prediction:  While the fashionable thing is to bash the Raiders and pick them to finish somewhere between 0-16 and 2-14, I don't think they are going to be nearly as bad as they were last season.  Don't get me wrong, they are in no position to challenge the top two teams in this division.  However, there is no reason they shouldn't be able to improve their record.  For starters, they draw games against Minnesota and Detroit.  That should be nice.  Kansas City, who I will get to next, looks to be a franchise headed downhill.  They get the Browns and Texans.  Basically, even for the Raiders, there are some winnable games on the schedule.  Just as it will be hard for San Diego to repeat a 14-2 season, the Raiders would be hard pressed to go 2-14 again.  The Texans improved from 2-14 in 05 to 6-10 last season.  The 03 Giants and 04 49ers improved 2 games after having the first pick.  The NFL system allows last place teams to improve quickly.  While I don't think Russell will engineer a Return to Excellence in his first season, I think this team will score more points and should have a better record.  
    
Record:  6-10, 3rd Place AFC West, No Playoffs

Kansas City Chiefs

Strengths:  Larry Johnson.  Larry Johnson is the strength of this team.  He carried that ball 416 times last season, which is an average of 26 times per game.  He rushed for 1,789 yards and had 17 touchdowns.  Amazing you can put up a stat line like that, and still you are the second best running back in your own division.  He is the heart and soul of this offense, and as Larry Johnson goes, so do the Chiefs.  The Chiefs were 8-3 when Johnson rushed for over 100 yards in a game, as opposed to 1-4 when he did not.  Tony Gonzalez is also a great asset to this team.  He had his usual 70 catch, 900 yard season, and added 5 touchdown catches.  Damon Huard looked impressive in his 10 games, throwing for 11 touchdowns and 1 interception.  It will be interesting how that translates into a full season for this previously journeyman quarterback.  The defense improved to 11th in points allowed, which was a great improvement from the Vermeil era, which consistently had the Chiefs near the bottom of the league. 

Weaknesses:  It took Herman Edwards exactly one year to ruin this offense.  After finishing in the top 5 for offensive yardage ever season of the Vermeil era and first, first, second, and sixth in points, Herman Edwards destroyed this offense.  It dropped to 15th in both yards and points in his first year with most of the same players.  As usual, the problem was Herm Edwards refusal to embrace the passing offense, which ranked 22nd last season.  In New York, Herman Edwards best ranking in yards was 12th and his best ranking in scoring was 15th.  Only one season did he crack both the top 20 in points and yards in the same season, which was his 10-6 2004 Jets team.  While Herm Edwards may be a great motivator and great defensive mind, he has consistently showed that his teams are dreadful on the offensive side of the ball.  That came to light in the Indy playoff game, where he basically ran his team into a wall in probably the worst called offensive game I have ever seen.  The team is thus very average at wide receiver.  After posting back to back 1,000 yard seasons, Kennison led the team with 53 catches for 860 yards and 5 touchdowns.  They added Dwayne Bowe in the first round.  Again, you know what I think of rookie wide receivers.  Also, hurting the team is the loss of their special teams ace in Dante Hall.  It will be interesting how this loss affects their starting field position; something you would think would be of some importance for a team that struggles to move the ball in large chunks.   

Prediction:  This is the playoff team I am looking to take the biggest fall.  The Chiefs appear to be headed to a holdout with Larry Johnson, have shipped Trent Green out of town, are in a contract stalemate with their leading quarterback sacker, Jarred Allen.  Their great offensive line is slowly retiring.  This has the makings of a team headed in the wrong direction.  The Chiefs are stupid for getting into a contract squabble with Johnson.  Without him, this may be the Oakland Raiders of last season.  He has every right to want his money now.  Edwards is going to run him into the ground in the next 3 years at the rate he is carrying the ball.  He needs to get his money now, while he is young and healthy.  While players rarely sit out the season, this is not a good sign for the heart and soul of the offense to be talking about a lengthy holdout.  While Huard looked good in his starting time last season, he has never been asked to be the starter.  It will be interesting to see how he deals with that responsibility being placed on him.  Several guys have looked like Superman as a backup and Clark Kent as a starter.  Rob Johnson and Scott Mitchell come to mind.  The defense is okay, but nothing outstanding.  A lot of their success had to do with the ball control style they play, rather than any upgrades they made from the Vermeil era.  Donnie Edwards was a very good pickup.  He is a very underrated linebacker that is good for over 100 tackles every year.  The Chiefs have to get off to a fast start.  Week 9 to Week 14 is not the part of the schedule they will make up ground.  They start with a home game against the Packers, and then play the Broncos, at the Colts, Raiders, Chargers, and at Broncos.  That has the potential to be a 2-4 or 1-5 stretch.  They also have games against the Bears, Jaguars, Jets, and Bengals.  I thought Herm Edwards was a good hire, because the offense was in place, and he could concentrate on building the defense.  I thought he could do what Dungy did in Indy, repair the defense, while leaving the offense intact.  While Dungy had a young QB in Manning, rather than an old QB like Green; Herm Edwards is slowly turning the Chiefs into what he had in New York.  A team that plays hard, has a stingy defense, and can't score to save their lives.  Instead of blaming his offensive coordinators, it might be time to blame him.  This guy is quickly showing that he would be better served as a defensive coordinator, rather than a head coach.  I think this offense falls into the 20s this season.  I look for this team to take a huge fall, and finish behind even the lowly Raiders. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place AFC West, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the AFC West predictions.  I will try to post the AFC North sometime next week.