This is my third of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC South was among the most competitive divisions in the NFL. The Colts finished with the 2nd best record in the AFC at 13-3. The Jaguars were one of the hottest teams in the NFL to close the season and won an epic playoff game in Pittsburgh. The Titans made the playoffs as the AFC’s 6th seed. Finally, the Texans had their first .500 season in the history of their franchise. With so many talented teams the AFC South figures to be a slugfest again in 2008.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC South.
1) Jacksonville Jaguars 07 Record: 11-5 Points Scored: 411 (6th) Points Allowed: 304 (10th) Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 143-113 (.559) (3rd in NFL)
Strengths: The 2007 Jaguars looked to be in disarray before Week 1 even began. The first team offense was not performing in the preseason and Jack Del Rio decided that the Jaguars needed to go in a different direction at quarterback. He released Byron Leftwich and turned the quarterback reigns over to David Garrard. Garrard responded by posting the third highest QB rating in the NFL with a 102.2. He threw an amazing 18 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions.
While the Jaguars started slowly with a 5-3 record, they won 6 of their last 8 games and became the first team to win 2 games in Pittsburgh in the same season, including their epic 31-29 victory in the NFL Wildcard Round. The Jaguars played the Patriots tough in New England, but ultimately fell to the Patriots 31-20.
While Garrard played at a very high level, the strength of the Jaguars offense was clearly the running game. Fred Taylor earned his first Pro Bowl appearance, as he was selected as the alternate. He rushed for 1,202 yards. Maurice Jones-Drew also had a solid campaign, rushing for 768 yards and racking up 407 receiving yards. He had 9 rushing touchdowns. That combo gave the Jags the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFL, second only to the Minnesota Vikings.
The Jags also did very well on defense. They finished 11th in rushing yards allowed, 15th in passing yards allowed, and 10th in points allowed. The Jags allowed less than 20 points in 10 of their 16 contests. They also ranked 4th in the NFL with 20 interceptions and 9th in the NFL with sacks at 36.
However, they weren’t able to generate that same production against the more explosive offenses in the NFL. The Patriots, Colts, Steelers, and Saints were able to torch the Jaguars. They averaged 30 points per game in 6 contests. If the Jaguars are going to make the jump to the elite level of the NFL they will have to force more turnovers and sacks on defense against the elite NFL offenses.
Weaknesses: The Jaguars had two main weaknesses in 2007. First, their receiver production was unacceptable. Earnest Wilford led the receivers and tight ends in receptions with 45. Dennis Northcutt led the receivers and tight ends with 629 yards. That production is not acceptable from a NFL receiving core.
David Garrard should be better just from having completed his first season as the Jaguars number one guy. The Jaguars also made a number of improvements in the receiving core. They allowed Wilford to go to Miami. They replaced him with Jerry Porter who looks for a fresh start coming from Oakland. They also acquired Troy Williamson from the Minnesota Vikings.
Neither have been productive in recent years do the quarterback situations they had with their respective clubs. Jerry Porter has proven he can put up numbers if given a solid quarterback. Williamson has proven nothing, other than that he can drop balls while in the open. If either of those guys can emerge as a go to target and Reggie Williams can duplicate his 10 touchdown catches from 2007, and Mercedes Lewis can continue to improve; the Jags should be able to generate more offense in their passing game.
Regardless the Jaguars had big guys at receiver that didn’t possess breakaway speed. Adding Porter and Williamson was huge in the fact that it gives them a more speed and a more diverse receiving core.
The other area the Jags needed to improve was putting pressure on the quarterback. The Jags had 36 sacks, which ranked 9th. That is a little misleading. Their leading sacker on defense, Paul ####er recorded 8 sacks. Also consider that the Jags recorded 16 less sacks than the league leading New York Giants, but recorded only 5 more sacks than 19th ranked New Orleans. There was not a lot of separation from 10 through 20 in terms of quarterback sacks.
Furthermore, The Jags must improve in that area if they want to compete against the elite offenses in the NFL. If an elite quarterback is allowed unlimited time, he will destroy the best coverage units in the NFL. In 2007 the Jags just didn’t have that one player on their defense that offensive coordinators spend time game planning against to keep away from their quarterback.
They made that their number one priority in the NFL draft. They moved up to the 8th pick in the draft and selected Derrick Harvey. They also selected Quentin Groves out of Auburn. He is a player that can play both defensive end and linebacker. Both players should help the defensive front put pressure on Peyton Manning and the other elite quarterbacks on their schedule. The Jaguars will need those players to contribute immediately to make up for the losses of Marcus Stroud, Grady Jackson, and Bobby McCray. Also, don’t be surprised if the Jaguars don’t continue to pursue Jason Taylor via a trade. There is clearly a riff between Taylor and the Dolphins front office and while a trade will not be as easy to make as prior to the draft, I would not rule that move out. He would be a huge addition to the Jags defensive line.
Prediction: I think this is finally the year the Jaguars put everything together. Fred Taylor is 32, but has not been worn out in recent years with the emergence of Jones-Drew. He should still have another couple good years left in him. The two form one of the premier running back duos in the NFL.
I expect David Garrard to be more effective in his second year as the full time starter. It will also help him to have Jerry Porter. Porter has a lot of talent and needed a change of scenery. While he alone doesn’t make this one of the top-receiving units in the NFL, he doesn’t have to. It just needs to have the respect of the NFL defenses. They have more speed this year and should be able to stretch defenses and gain more yards through the air.
The fact is that the Jaguars had a good offense last year. They averaged 30.4 points per game in their last 10 games of the season and averaged 25.5 points per game in their 2-playoff games. This team has come a long way since 2005 when they averaged 22.6 points per game and were held to 3 points in their Wildcard Round loss to New England. Garrard gave them another dimension in the passing game and should benefit from having started a full season. This is his first offseason knowing that he has the job.
They key for me was what the Jaguars did in the postseason and what they did in the draft. This is a team that needed to do well in the postseason to prove to themselves they could play with the top powers in the AFC. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and played the Patriots tough in New England. The one thing they came away with was that they needed to put more pressure on the QB. That was addressed this offseason, even though they didn’t acquire Jason Taylor.
I didn’t like the fact that they gave up 7 picks to get their two top picks. In the long run that could come back to haunt them and could be key for the Baltimore rebuilding effort. What I did like is they added two players that can put pressure on the quarterback and will have a solid system and players to help them do that. These guys don’t need to save the defense. They need to use their strengths to put them over the top.
The Jaguars do have a tough schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage, but some of that is deceiving. I think they made a lot more improvements than Tennessee and Houston. They don’t have to play the Patriots or the Chargers, two teams the Colts face. They draw Denver and Buffalo instead. The NFC North is a division with some question marks. Brett Favre retiring means the Packers are probably not a 13-3 team in 2008 and while the Vikings appear to be on the rise, the Lions and Bears have a lot of questions. While Pittsburgh and Cleveland will offer challenging games, Baltimore and Cincinnati should not be very difficult.
What this means is that I think Jacksonville is in position to unseat the Indianapolis Colts as division champs. Furthermore, I look for them and New England to have the best records in the AFC, with the Jags winning the Conference’s Number 1 seed.
Jacksonville Jaguar’s Record: 13-3 – AFC South Divisional Champion; AFC #1 Seed
2) Indianapolis Colts 07 Record: 13-3 Points Scored: 450 (3rd) Points Allowed: 262 (1st) Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 152-104 (.594) (2nd in NFL)
Strengths: The Colts have been a powerhouse on offense since 1999. Other than 2002, the Colts have ranked no worse than 4th in points scored and no worse than 5th in yards gained. The leader of the offense since 1998 has been Peyton Manning. He has posted a 4,000 yard passing season 8 of his first 10 seasons in the league and has posted consecutive 31 touchdown pass seasons in 2006 and 2007. Last season was his first season where he failed to break the 100.0 rating since 2003. He still had a solid 98.0. His first 10 years in the league have been as productive as any quarterback in the history of the NFL.
The Colts have always had great wide receivers. Last year Marvin Harrison was injured for most of the season. Reggie Wayne stepped to the forefront as the team’s number one wide receiver. He posted 104 catches for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns. Dallas Clark also had a stellar year with 58 catches for 616 yards and 11 touchdowns. Joseph Addai added balance to the running game with 1072 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns to go with his 41 receptions for 364 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. Anthony Gonzalez showed promise as a rookie. The Colts may need a bigger contribution if Marvin Harrison’s legal problems spill into the regular season. While that situation is bizarre at this point it does not appear to be a major issue given Marvin’s strong track record in regards to personal conduct and the information from the investigation that has been made public. I am much more concerned that Marvin Harrison is turning 36 years old and coming off an injury plagued season. He must show that the injuries that plagued him in 2007 are behind him.
The Colts have excellent depth at running back. Kenton Keith had a solid year filling in for Addai and Dominick Rhodes is back with the Colts after playing for the Raiders last season. He is familiar with the offense and should provide good depth behind Addai. Unlike their 2006 Super Bowl season when the Colts ranked 23rd in points allowed, 21st in yards allowed, and 32nd in rushing yards allowed; the 2007 Colts were one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The 2007 Colts ranked 1st in points allowed, 3rd in yards allowed, and 15th in rushing yards allowed. Bob Sanders was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The Colts were ranked 2nd in interceptions with 22.
Weaknesses: The Colts are a veteran roster that has won 12 games or more every year since 2003. That is an amazing accomplishment. Still, they do have some question marks headed into the 2008 campaign.
The Colts were not able to put a lot of pressure on the quarterback last season. Their twenty eight quarterback sacks ranked 26th in the NFL. Part of that was due to the season ending injury suffered by Dwight Freeney in the Patriots game. If he is able to comeback healthy the Colts should be able to improve in that department. Still, the Colts are a small defensive unit that is built for speed over strength. They have to rank in the top part of the league in sacks if they are going to justify being that small. If they are giving up a lot of rushing yards and failing to register sacks that is not a good combination.
Losing Jake Scott was also a big loss. He has started 16 games at guard every year since 2005. Not only did they lose him, but also they lost him to a division rival in Tennessee. The Colts did a good job at replacing the retired left tackle Tarik Glenn with Tony Ugoh last season. They will need to do the same thing this season.
The other area the Colts need to worry about is depth at the receiver and tight end positions. Ben Utecht was lost to the Cincinnati Bengals. Bryan Fletcher will have to assume a bigger role in 2008. Other than Harrison and Wayne the Colts lack proven talent at wide receiver. Gonzalez and Moorhead will have to step up their contributions in 2008, especially if Harrison is not at full strength.
The Colts did not have a first round pick, so they were not able to upgrade any of those areas in the draft with a top prospect. They will need to do what they have been so good at since 2003. They need to improve from within and hope that they hit some homeruns in the later rounds of this year’s draft.
Prediction: I think the Colts window is slowly starting to close. Drafting so late since 2003 will do that to any team. They are in good shape at running back and while Peyton Manning is 32 years old, he is showing no signs of slowing down. Marvin Harrison is starting to get up there in age, Tony Dungy appears to be nearing the end of his coaching career with the Colts, and it is uncertain that the Colts have the talent in place on defense to maintain their stellar showing last season.
The other difficult thing for the Colts is the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL. It is brutal. They play the Patriots, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars twice. Those are five of the toughest games you could ask for. They also face Green Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Tennessee twice. Those teams aren’t nearly as good as the first list, but still very formidable opponents.
I think the Jaguars are closing the gap and the main difference between the clubs was Peyton Manning. While the Jaguars are never going to be better than the Colts in that regard, I think they have closed the gap and are poised to overtake the Colts in a very competitive division. That said, the Colts are extremely talented on offense and have a good enough defense to win a lot of games. I think the Colts still get to 12 wins this season and secure the top wild card position.
Indianapolis Colt’s Record: 12-4 – AFC South 2nd Place; AFC #5 Seed
3) Tennessee Titans 07 Record: 10-6 Points Scored: 301 (22nd) Points Allowed: 297 (8th) Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.520) (9th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Tennessee Titans were a surprise team in 2007. Despite adding little at the skill positions and having an offense that struggled to score points, Vince Young was able to manage the offense in only his second year. Behind a defense that was very stingy against the run, the Titans won 10 games and sneaked into the playoffs on the last day. That good fortune was partly the result of the Bengals upsetting the Browns in Week 16 and partly the result of the Colts resting all their players on the final game of the season Regardless, the Titans progressed very well in year 2 of the Vince Young era and played San Diego tough in the wild card round. They belonged on that stage.
The Titans allowed only 92.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked 5th in the NFL. A major reason for that was Albert Haynesworth. He is currently the team’s franchise player and has yet to work out a long-term deal with the club. A training camp holdout may be in the future. This is big for the Titans, because this was not the same team without him. They gave up over 30 points a game in Weeks 10-13, including 35 points to the Cincinnati Bengals. All three games were losses and almost kept the Titans out of the playoffs.
The Titans also ranked 10th in passing yards allowed at just 199.2 passing yards allowed per game. They were excellent at putting pressure on the quarterback with 40 sacks, which ranked 7th in the NFL. If Javon Kearse can stay healthy he should help them increase that number in 2008. Their 22 interceptions tied the Colts for 2nd in the NFL.
On offense the Titans had an excellent rushing attack. The Titans ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, led by LenDale White’s 1,110 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns. Jake Scott was an excellent signing at guard and could help them open up even bigger holes in their running attack. It will be interesting to see how speedster Chris Johnson will fit into the Titans rotation. They also have speedster Chris Henry, who saw limited time in 2007.
Weaknesses: The one are the Titans struggled with was the passing game. That was the main reason the Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in scoring. Vince Young had a very poor season in that regard. Vince Young ranked 26th in QB rating with a 71.1. His 9 touchdown passes ranked tied for 24th. His 17 interceptions were tied for 7th, despite the fact that he only threw 382 passes. Jon Kitna led the league with 20 intercpetions, but threw the ball 561 times. Young threw an interception once every 22.5 pass attempts. While he is a great leader and has all the intangible things needed from a star NFL quarterback, he has to improve his passing numbers if the Titans are going to advance deeper in the playoffs.
Part of that problem was the targets that Vince Young had in 2007. Roydell Williams and Justin Gage were their leading receivers. They both had 55 catches. Gage got the better in receiving yards with 750 to 719, while Williams had 4 touchdown catches to Gage’s 2 touchdown catches. There are quite a few teams that got better production out of their #3 receiver. If Vince Young is going to take the next step, the Titans have to get some playmakers around him.
The problem is they didn’t add any playmakers. I thought the Titans did very well in free agency, but failed to upgrade their receiving core in the draft. If the Titans fail to improve on their 2007 season, I think they will look back to their failure to add playmakers in the draft. The best receiver they added was Lavelle Hawkins, who the Titans selected in the 4th round out of California. The transition from college to the NFL is very tough for a receiver and it is doubtful he will make a huge impact in his first season.
Prediction: The Titans have a very difficult road in 2008. The Jaguars made a lot of improvements in the draft and free agency and the Colts have a very high-powered offense. The Titans went 2-2 against the top of the division in 2007. One of those wins was on the final day when the Colts backups hung in against the Titan starters until the final minutes. It is difficult to see that they have caught up with Indy and Jacsonville given the events of the offseason. They also play Pittsburgh and Cleveland, which could be tough as well.
I messed up on this team last year, because I didn’t respect their defense and running game enough. I picked them to finish under .500 and last in the division. The Titans are among the best in the league in those areas and that should be enough to win a lot of games. They were able to win without a potent passing game in 2007, and I am not going to let that fool me in 2008.
That said, I don’t see how they did enough to pass Jacksonville and Indianapolis and as the 6th seed. They finished tied with Cleveland in 2007, so it isn’t like they had much room to spare. Cleveland has made a lot of improvements in the offseason. I think the Titans finish 9-7 in 2008 and fight it out with Cleveland for that last playoff spot. This season I think the Browns get the better end of that deal.
Tennessee Titan’s Record: 9-7 – AFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs
Strengths: Imagine how the Colts would have done in 2007 had Joseph Addai missed 11 starts, Marvin Harrison had missed 7 starts, and Peyton Manning had missed 5 starts? That is what happened to the Texans with Schaub, Green, and Johnson.
Now, I’m not saying that the Texans trio is on par with what the Colts have in Indy. What I am saying is that the Texans did very well to score 379 points and finish 12th in the NFL in scoring despite having their starting quarterback, number one receiver, and number one running back missing significant time. When you combine that with the division they played in it is amazing that they finished 8-8.
If the Texans are going to compete in this division, they are going to have to keep those guys healthy. That is going to be a difficult task. Andre Johnson has already had offseason knee surgery and will not be participating in team practices before training camp. Ahman Green is 31 years old and has not been consistently healthy and effective since 2004.
The Texans addressed their running back depth in the draft by signing Chris Brown from the Titians and selecting Steve Slaton. While his stock dropped this year, he is going into a perfect zone blocking system for his abilities. Still, the Texans ranked 22nd in rushing yards gained in 2007. If all 3 can stay healthy, the Texans have a good rotation and should be able to improve on that number.
On defense the team is still improving. Mario Williams had 14 sacks in his second season and is still 23 years old. Amobi Okoye had 5.5 sacks as a rookie defensive tackle and is just 21 years old. Those two are developing into what could be a dominant defensive line for years to come. Demeco Ryans played in his first pro bowl and is quickly becoming a solid middle linebacker. He is just 24 years old. If their young defenders continue to progress, they should be able to improve on their 22nd ranked scoring defense.
Weaknesses: The Texans have a number of areas in which they need to improve. They have a lot of good parts, but they need them to perform better in terms of the production they get from their units.
Take the pass rush. As I said earlier, Williams and Okoye is an excellent tandem. But the Texans recorded only 31.0 sacks, which ranked tied for 21st. That means those two combined for 63% of the team’s sacks. They have to get more sacks from the rest of their defensive line and linebackers. That lack of pressure also explains why the Texans finished tied for last in interceptions with 11. They drafted Antwaun Molden and Dominique Barber in the draft to help improve the secondary.
The receiving game is another example. Johnson was only 5 catches of the team lead in receptions. He had 60 receptions and Walter had 65. He led the team in receiving yards (851), and receiving touchdowns (8); despite missing 7 starts with a knee injury. They need to get more production out of their other receivers.
The offensive line is also a big concern. That was the main motivation for drafting Duane Brown, an offensive tackle out of Virginia Tech. They will need him to make an immediate impact to protect Schaub.
The Texans just need to find more consistency with their young players if they want to take the jump in this very tough division. It is hard to make strides when the other 3 teams in the division all made the playoffs last year.
Prediction: I like what the Texans are doing, but I still think they are a year away. Their good players are still very young on defense, and while they have good skill position players on offense, they need to get better blocking out of the offensive line if those players are going to realize their full potential.
The Texans have some winnable games on their schedule. They play the Dolphins and Raiders. The Lions and Bears could produce victories. Baltimore and Cincinnati are winnable. The problem is the beginning of their schedule. They play at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee in 3 of their first 4 games, with their sole home game being against Baltimore in Week 2. Then they play Indy in Week 5. They could easily be 1-4 to start the season. Then in Week 11 they begin a 4 game stretch at Indy, at Cleveland, Jacksonville, and at Green Bay on December 7th.
In the end I look for Houston to have a similar year to last season. They will play people tough and continue to improve, but they are still probably a year away from breaking through in the AFC South.
Houston Texan’s Record: 7-9 – AFC South 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”
‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”
On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."
We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road. Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks. Most will not live up to expectations. Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams. Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes.
We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed. None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action. It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust. Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players. It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.
Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now? Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers. Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player. If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.
Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft. I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008. I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names. I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super. However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5. 22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.
The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there. Both were selected in the 3rd round.
The position I struck out on was wide receiver. I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round. Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round. That was brutal.
Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B. By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.
5 questions
1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right. Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons. Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007. He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself. They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball. He was the player that could most help them do that. By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.
The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting. With these guys you don’t. The draft can be very unforgiving. Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss. They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver.
However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams. The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen. I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired. This was a good gamble. The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own. This may end up going down as a win-win trade.
2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer. Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong.
Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick. If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.
This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy. It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta. It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them. They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.
With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players. While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.
3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long? Absolutely. Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later. Both players were safe picks. I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft. Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling. Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling. There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round. There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10.
By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one. If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.
4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure. This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product. The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition. There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi. Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois. The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school. The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him. Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.
The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty. While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft. I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round. If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble. If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department. At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round. Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback. If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.
5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy. Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now. He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt. Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.
Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing. If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend. The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later. Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer.
Brohm fills two needs. First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them. From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense. Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history. That is not a good sign.
The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out. If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games. If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future. The value was good and the pick made sense. Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.
5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.
1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen. If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too. That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team. While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.
Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams. The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season. It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith. At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line. You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends.
The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick. It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player.
The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft. While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board. He should substantially upgrade their defensive line. Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement. Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round. He should help improve the secondary.
Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2. Jamal Charles could be a quality running back. Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft. I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.
The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota. If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road. This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.
2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year. Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007. Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10. Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down. They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State. He is a bigger receiver. Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end. Finally, they added Malcom Kelly. Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout. Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.
On the second day they added a lot of depth. Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly. Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle. They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner. This was a major need as well.
The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position. Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone. The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone. When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot.
Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round. They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense. If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.
3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft. The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long. Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007. Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick. That was good value.
In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick. He should help on their defensive line. Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.
The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks. On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs. Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round. He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.
While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year. They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle. The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL. Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line. If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard.
Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off. Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength. If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment. Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round. Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft. I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick
This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad. In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft. They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery. He may move to receiver.
They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development. Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.
5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick. I had him rated slightly higher than Jones. However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber. The pick makes sense in that respect.
Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick. That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up. Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett.
The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names. The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round. They have excellent potential to do that. Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3. With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.
5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.
1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver. I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade. Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game. White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.
Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards. They have to find a way to upgrade that position. Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan. While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver. The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California. I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind. William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy. That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.
Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft. The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys. Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson. Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks. I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be.
I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs. I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points. The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves. The Chargers have a lot of weapons. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace. Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year.
Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft. In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.
2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out. It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter. However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect. I thought this was a substantial reach. Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell. That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value.
Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.”
I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round. The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith. That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line.
I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back. While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect. This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City.
3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds. Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion. But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round?
Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized. A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner. I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point. The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.
Then they drafted Justin King on day two. He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver. All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that. With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.
4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9. I thought he would slip later into the first round. But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?
The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into. Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ. It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.
Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson. While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that. Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.
Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him. Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season. While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2.
The Bengals did okay in the later rounds. Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver. If he can stay healthy he could contribute. Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise. He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence. At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp.
While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out. If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft. I don’t think they did much after that. I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008. Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.
5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out? I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots. I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft.
I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans. But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress. He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.
I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10. Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft. Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round. I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round. I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo. All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.
Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round. Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions. Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly. When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.
The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years. Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right. They selected linebacker depth and special teams help. Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell.
Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo. I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson. You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft. That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.
That is my draft recap. Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May. Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.
I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Steve McNair on a terrific 13 year NFL career with the Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens. Steve McNair was one of those guys that you respected even though he wasn’t on your team. He always gave 110% and played through a slew of injuries. He was a great ambassador for the Mississippi area when his home state was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina. He is someone the NFL will miss not only for his on the field play, but the great contributions that he had off the field.
Steve McNair came into the NFL as a Division I-AA Walter Payton Award winner. His nickname in college was Air-McNair, a name he earned for the wide open offense he ran at Alcorn State. In his senior season he threw for 4,863 yards and rushed for 936 yards. He also threw for 44 touchdowns. That prompted the Houston Oilers to select him 3rd in the 1995 NFL Draft.
After only playing in 4 games his rookie season and 9 games his second season learning behind Chris Chandler he was put into the starting lineup in 1997. From 1997 to 2003, McNair missed only nine of the possible 112 regular-season starts. Five of those misses were due to back surgery. Steve McNair developed a reputation of being able to play through injuries that most players would not dare try. He and Brett Favre were widely considered the two toughest quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Titans finished 8-8 in both 1997 and 1998. In 1999 the pieces finally started to come together for the Titans. Steve McNair was coming into his own as a NFL quarterback. Eddie George dominated the running game. Frank Wycheck was a Pro Bowl tight end. Derrick Mason was a dangerous return man that would come into his own the following year. The defense received the piece it was missing by drafting a Florida defensive end named Jevon “The Freak” Kearse. The Titans would finish 1999 13-3, but second in the division to the 14-2 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Thankfully for the Titans, the Jags two losses were to the Titans. After beating the Bills in the Music City Miracle and the Colts in a Divisional Round contest, the Titans would beat the Jaguars for the 3rd time that season and advance to the Super Bowl. They would lose to the St Louis Rams 23-16. In the closing seconds of the game McNair hit Andre Dyson who sprinted for the endzone. He was stopped 1-yard shy of the endzone and from potentially sending the game to overtime.
The Titans would build off that win in 2000 and go 13-3 with the best record in football. They were the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but were upset in the Divisional Round by the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens. After finishing 7-9 in 2001 they would bounce back to go 11-5 in 2002 and advance to the AFC Championship Game, where they would lose to the Oakland Raiders. In 2003 they finished 12-4 and Steve McNair shared his first and only MVP award with Peyton Manning. The Titans would win their first round game against Baltimore, but fell to eventual champion New England.
By 2004 the salary cap had started to catch up with the Titans. Forced to cut many of their high priced veteran starters the Titans crashed to 5-11 in 2004 and 4-12 in 2005. McNair started only 8 games in 2004 and 14 in 2005. By then the Titans wanted to move on and draft Vince Young. What followed was a messy parting of the ways, in which McNair was banned from the team facilities and had to sue the Titans. Eventually McNair won his lawsuit and the Titans and Ravens worked out a trade to send McNair to Baltimore.
In 2006 McNair led the Ravens to a 13-3 record and was again back in the playoffs. However, after earning a first round bye the Ravens would fall to the eventual champion Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round 15-6. Of McNair’s 5 playoff losses, 4 were to the eventual Super Bowl Champion and the other was to the 2002 Oakland Raiders, who were the runner up that season.
In 2007 McNair was not right the entire season. Unable to stay healthy he only appeared in 6 games. That was the primary factor that led to the announcement of his retirement. He finished his NFL Career 31,304 yards passing, 174 touchdowns to 119 interceptions and a career QB rating of 82.8. He also carried for 3,590 yards and 37 touchdowns, which are top 5 career numbers for a quarterback.
Now that Steve McNair has retired the question is going to come up as to whether or not he had a Hall of Fame career. While I think he was a very good quarterback that enjoyed a fine NFL career and should have absolutely no regrets, I don’t think he played at a high enough level to warrant induction into Canton. The reasons are as follows:
1) Lack of big regular season numbers – Supporters will look at his 20th career ranking in completions, 23rd in attempts, 28th in passing yards, 43rd in career touchdowns, and his 27th career quarterback rating and conclude that he was a Hall of Famer. You have to go deeper than that. First, he played his entire career in the pass friendly era of the late 1990s and 2000s. His numbers are comparable to Hall of Famers that played the majority or their entire career in the Dead Ball Era. Second, he finished in the top 10 in completions, attempts, and passing yards only twice. He was in the top 10 in passing touchdowns only 3 times.
People will point to his rushing numbers. That is one of the difficulties in evaluating quarterbacks. Some people value those rushing numbers more than others. My belief is that a quarterback’s primary job is to pass the ball and those are the numbers a quarterback should ultimately be judged upon. Until a rushing quarterback carries a team to multiple rings and redefines the quarterback position I am sticking to that theory. While the Titans won a lot of games in his tenure, he never accumulated the passing numbers that I believe are necessary for Hall of Fame induction.
2) Lack of Postseason Success in relation to the Regular Season Numbers – McNair went 5-5 in the postseason and did get his team to the Super Bowl once. While he did not play great in that game he did play well enough to have his team in that game until the last play. People will compare his career numbers to Troy Aikman and see that McNair outperformed him over the course of his career. The problem is that Aikman led the Cowboys to 3 Super Bowl rings in a 4 year period. Had Aikman appeared in one Super Bowl and lost, he wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame either. In my opinion, Steve McNair didn’t experience enough success in the postseason to make up for his low regular season numbers to make the Hall of Fame.
3) He didn’t have a sustained period as the best quarterback in the game – Early in his career he didn’t measure up to Troy Aikman, John Elway, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, or Steve Young. He didn’t measure up to Tom Brady, Brett Favre, or Peyton Manning later in his career. Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon both had points where they were better quarterbacks. Both also won MVP awards. Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb were better at points in their careers. The result is that while he did win the MVP in 2003, that 4 year stretch from 2000 to 2003 is the only time he was considered an upper echelon quarterback. He was a 3 time Pro Bowler in 2000, 2003, and 2005; meaning he never put together consecutive Pro Bowls. He was never a NFL All-Pro. He never had a season that left fans in awe like Marino in 1984, Farve in 1996, Warner in 1999, Culpepper in 2004, Manning in 2004, and Brady in 2007.
I believe the Hall of Fame is more about how long you were an elite quarterback than what kind of career numbers you were able to accumulate. I don’t think that Vinny Testaverde is worthy of Canton induction and he ranks in the top 6 in passing yards, touchdowns, attempts, and completions. I would definitely put McNair ahead of Vinny, because of the MVP award, rushing production, and the fact that McNair led his team to a Super Bowl appearance. I just wouldn’t put him in the Hall of Fame.
Again, congratulations to Steve McNair for a wonderful career. While I don’t believe it was a Hall of Fame career, that in no way should diminish his career accomplishments. He was an extremely tough player and played through injuries that a lot of guys would not have been able to. He gave the fans a lot of great moments over the years and always conducted himself with the utmost class. He was a great ambassador to the NFL both on and off the field. Most importantly, he was respected through out the NFL. If the league had more Steve McNairs it would be a better league for it.
I apologize for being on such a long hiatus. While the NFL season is year long event I needed a break from my blog. As a Packer fan it has definitely been a long month. I can not wait for the draft to arrive so that we can tally up some winners and losers there and start making some predictions for 2008. While the draft does not happen for another 3 weeks I have completed a mock draft. I encourage you to check it out at: http://fantasyfootballmaniaxs.alexia.us/inde x.php?option=com_conten####mp;task=view&id=63 3&Itemid=50
After the opening weekend of free agency I gave an opinion as to who my top five winners and losers were of the opening weekend. I think that we have had enough activity in free agency to tally up some winners and losers from the entire Free Agency Period of the NFL off season. Assuming that nothing major happens between now and the NFL draft here are my 5 winners and 5 losers:
5 Winners
1) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. I think the Browns made the best of a bad situation. They didn’t have a first round pick this year thanks to their Brady Quinn trade of a year ago. They weren’t going to dominate the draft in 2008. What they did do is improve their team by giving free agent dollars and draft picks for guys that have not turned 30 years old. Corey Williams will be 28-years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29. Stallworth will be 28 in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. Their signings should be relevant to the Browns organization for years to come.
The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency and try to pass the Steelers in the AFC North. While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it like some other teams in the NFL that I will mention later. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it by acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. The Browns were not that far away from the Steelers last season. If these moves pan out watch out for the Browns in the always intriguing AFC North.
2) New Orleans Saints – The Saints did a lot of nice things to open free agency. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured in 2007 he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets began playing when Herm Edwards left. If he can re-emerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Bringing in Dan Morgan is a risk, but it was only for a one year deal. If he can stay healthy he will contribute. Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not the gigantic signing that was Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27-years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Deverey Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense.
I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season. Considering they have the 10th pick in the draft they have a lot of flexibility to add another immediate impact player and improve this team that is only a year removed from the NFC Title Game.
3) Tennessee Titans – I like how this team has built on their run to the wildcard last season. They signed guard Jake Scott away from the Colts which helps them and hurts a division rival. The money was reasonable at 4 years for $5.0 million per year. They signed Alge Crumpler after he was released by the Falcons. He should help considerably if he can stay healthy by giving Young a go to target in the red zone and third down. They were able to bring Jevon Kearse back to the Titans. He is a former Titan that should help if his health holds up. They also added WR Justin McCareins from the Jets.
These aren’t players that will send shivers down opposing fan’s spines, but they are solid players that will help the Titans win football games in 2008. This is a team that sat out of the opening week of free agency, but was able to add solid veterans at salary friendly contracts. The biggest key for them going forward is to have a solid draft and resolve the contract dispute with Albert Haynesworth. He is essential to their defense. While there were other teams that broke the bank the Titans added good talent, but stayed smart. I think that conservative approach will pay off.
4) - Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why in the Andy Reid era; year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL. They were able to eliminate some older players from their roster in Spikes and Kearse and signed the most coveted free agent on the market in Samuel. While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. Then instead of canceling out a good signing by overpaying someone they stayed put and are going to use the draft to continue to improve their roster. The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a #### and built on that by maintaining a conservative approach.
5) Atlanta Falcons – Very similar to what the Eagles did. They made their big splash by signing Michael the Burner Turner to a large deal. He should give them a nice weapon rushing the ball and is a much better compliment to the skill set of Norwood than Dunn was. Then they do a bunch of smaller moves. They resign Harrington and Redman to contracts. This gives them the flexibility to either draft Ryan or go in a different direction later in the draft. Both are decent stop gap guys when developing a franchise quarterback. They signed Jason Elam which upgrades the kicking game. They get a second round pick for Hall and rid themselves of a locker room problem. They rid themselves of a big salary by releasing Crumpler. All of these moves will allow them to continue to rebuild a franchise that was devastated by the conviction of Michael Vick. While I don’t think the Falcons will compete for the playoffs next season, I do think they are on the road to recovery. Instead of trying to throw money at their problems and make it worse they seem to have a solid plan going forward.
5 Losers
1) Green Bay Packers – I actually had the Packers on the winner side after the opening weekend for getting a 2nd round pick from Cleveland for a player in Corey Williams that they had absolutely no intention of keeping. What a difference a couple of days made. On March 4, 2008 the Packer fortunes changed forever when future Hall of Famer and all time great NFL quarterback Brett Favre announced his retirement from the NFL. Franchise Quarterbacks are extremely tough to replace. Hall of Fame players that have been the face of the franchise for over 15 years are next to impossible. While life will go on for the Packers this loss will hurt significantly, especially in the 2008 season.
The Packers have a promising backup in Aaron Rodgers. For all the people that think he is the answer because o####ood showing in the Dallas game I encourage you to research the career of Buffalo Bills quarterback Rob Johnson, who was given franchise dollars based on one game as the Jaguars backup. The Dallas game is zero indication of the starting quarterback Rodgers will become. The encouraging thing is that Rodgers does appear to have made strides since his first training camp in Green Bay. The bad news is that he has had injury problems as the backup. He broke his ankle in 2006 missing the second half of season. Last year he pulled his hamstring in practice and was inactive for the end of the regular season. If the Packers are going to be contender in 2008 they can’t replace the Iron Man with the China Doll. Rodgers must stay healthy as the options behind him are bleak.
The Packers have no way of replacing a player of Brett Favre’s talents in the draft or free agency for next season and even though they have a young and promising team, quarterback is the most important position on the team. Losing a Hall of Fame Quarterback is huge and makes them the big loser of the 2008 off season.
2) New York Jets – The Jets have been experts at getting old and average talent for millions this off season. The Jets signed OG Alan Faneca to a five year $40 million dollar deal. OT Damien Woody to a 5 year $25.5 million dollar deal. Bubba Franks was signed to a 1 year $1.65 million dollar contract for being an injury case in Green Bay. Tony Richardson who is an aging injured player was signed away from the Vikings. On defense they signed ex-Cardinals OLB Calvin Pace to a six year, $42 million contract. They traded a third and fifth round pick for ex-Panthers DT Kris Jenkins and proceeded to sign him to a 5 year $35.0 million dollar contract. Then to top everything off they guaranteed the last $11.0 million of Cole’s salary.
Ladies and Gentleman, I introduce to you the new and recently relocated Washington Redskins. The only player that I would have been happy with my favorite team signing was Faneca. Pace is a good player, but not worth the investment the Jets paid him. Everyone else I see as either consistently injured, consistently old, or consistently underachieving. In some cases it is all three. The fact that they mortgaged their salary cap future to overpay average to below average talent speaks volumes that this team is not headed toward contention anytime soon.
3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. I like what they did a little better than the Jets, because I think Hall has the ability to be a shut down corner and Gibril Wilson has the potential to be a Pro Bowl safety. At least they signed some younger players than the Jets. Still this free agent grab produced some embarrassing signings. Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million. He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed. I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season. He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle. They allowed a healthy Joey Porter to walk and did not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him. Then they signed Javon Walker who has had knee issues the last few seasons to a 6 year $55.0 million dollar deal. That one boggles my mind. He is just too injured to warrant that big of a payout.
The Commitment to Excellence became to the Commitment to Overspending in 2008. When you combine that with the uncertainty surrounding Lane Kiffin you have the potential for a very entertaining soap opera for those outside the Raiders Nation.
4) New England Patriots – Other than 2007 the Patriots are consistently on this side of the report, yet continue to compete for division titles. However, the Patriots have suffered a lot of losses this off season. Samuel was signed by the Eagles, Eugene Wilson was signed by the Buccaneers, and #### was signed by the Saints. Harrison was probably a player they needed to replace in their secondary and he is coming back. They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin. They have suffered a lot of losses on defense. They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary destroyed. While they did address those losses by signing Fernando Bryant, Tank Williams, and Lewis Sanders that does not replace what they lost. While the 7th pick can address a major area of need it can’t rebuild an entire secondary and linebacker core.
Then you have to look at the offense. Keeping Randy Moss was huge. Had they not the Patriots would have been my number one loser of the off season, even with the Favre retirement. Stallworth was signed by the Browns. While his numbers suggest it is a manageable loss it hurts in the fact that a safety had to respect his speed. The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for. I think their approach is sounder than the Jets and Raiders. I still think they paid a hefty price this off season.
5) Minnesota Vikings – I didn’t like the Vikings off season beginning with the overpayment of Berrian. The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money. This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play. Even if he had a good quarterback, I don’t see him as an elite player. He drops the ball too much for the production he gives. Furthermore, the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield strikes. Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams to a $33 million deal, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money. He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career for a Cincinnati team that can’t stop anyone either. I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.
The Vikings did better than NY Jets and Oakland by not completely surrendering their future. They only overpaid for two players not 5 or 6. They didn’t lose the Hall of Famer the Packers did or the multiple talented players the Patriots lost. Entering the off season the Vikings needed to 1) Upgrade their passing offense, and 2) Upgrade their passing defense.
Here is my issue. They received a huge break by having their division rival’s Hall of Fame QB retire. The Bears are rebuilding their offense and their defense was down last season. The Lions have been rebuilding since Barry Sanders retired. The Vikings have arguably the best weapon in the division with Peterson and the division is theirs for the taking. Yet entering the draft you have the exact same question marks you had about the team last season.
The fact is that by the start of next season the Vikings offensive line will be in its prime years. Birk will be 32, Hutchinson will be 31 in November, and McKinnie will be 29 in September. The Vikings have one of the most promising weapons in the NFL in Adrian Peterson. The time is now to try to shoot to the top of the NFC North. I think they needed to have the mentality that the Cleveland Browns had this off season, and I just didn’t see it. I haven’t seen them do the things they need to do to take control of division that is theirs to control. Even though Peterson will be better in year 2; a bad pass defense and lack of a passing game will produce another 8-8 season.
That’s my take on free agency in the NFL. Remember, the draft is where the Super Bowl is won and lost. Being a loser or winner in the free agency period is not necessarily a pivotal moment in a franchise’s off season. There are still a lot more developments to come. I expect to do a draft recap after the April 26th NFL draft and will start doing my division previews in the beginning to middle of May. Stay tuned.
What an incredible weekend of football. The Patriots moved to within one game of a perfect season. Meanwhile the Giants and Packers played only the 2nd OT Championship Game in the history of the NFC playoffs. It was an epic win by the Giants that will be played on NFL Classic Films for years to come. Here is my recap of the Championship Round:
Scores:New England (17-0) 21 San Diego (13-5) 12
NY Giants 23 (12-6) Green Bay (14-3) 20 OT
On Deck:
Super Bowl Sunday: NY Giants (13-6) vs. New England Patriots (18-0)
MVP of the Week: The MVP for the Patriots had to be Laurence Maroney. Tom Brady did not play his best game of the season. In fact he played his worst. He did have 2 big touchdown throws, but also had 3 interceptions and only 209 yards passing. Maroney had 25 carries for 122 yards and 1 touchdown and helped carry the Patriot offense. On the Giants it was the combination of Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress. Manning was 21 for 40 for 254 yards and Burress had 11 catches for 154 yards. Those two were instrumental in maintaining offensive balance and controlling the clock for 40:00.
Game of the Week: Hard to go against the second OT game in the NFC since 1970. That game had so many emotional highs and lows. The Giants had stopped the Packers in the 3rd quarter, but Sam Madison was hit with a personal foul penalty. That led to a Favre TD pass to Donald Lee, which gave the Packers a 17-13 lead. The Giants went right back down the field and scored another touchdown. Brett Favre threw the first of his two interceptions deep in Giants territory, but the ball was fumbled and recovered by Mark Tauscher. That led to a field goal that tied the game at 20-20. Tynes went on to miss two field goals from 43 yards and 36 yards, which would have sent the Giants to the Super Bowl. The Packers won the toss, but Brett Favre made a poor throw on his first throw in OT that resulted in a Webster pick and set up the Giants for the game winning 47 yard field goal, the first 40 yard plus field goal made by an opposing player in the postseason history of the Green Bay Packers. This game will probably go down as one of the greatest Championship Games ever played, especially if the Giants can do the unthinkable and beat the Patriots in two weeks.
Loser of the Weak: Again, I hate to label people as losers because they didn’t perform as well as they and their fans would hope in the Championship Game. I think all 4 teams should be very proud of the effort they put into the games considering the stakes and the elements. All 4 teams had tremendous seasons. On the AFC side, I would say the Chargers offense failed the Chargers in key moments of that game. They kicked 3 field goals from 26 yards or less. Those were points left on the field that they could have used later in the game. If you are going to beat the Patriots, you have to score touchdowns. On the NFC side Ryan Grant had a very disappointing effort. After rushing for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns last week he was held to 13 carries for 29 yards and 0 touchdowns. Greg Jennings had 1 catch for 14 yards. That was way off his season averages. Also Brett Favre made the key mistake in the OT and threw a very critical interception that set the Giants up for the game winning field goal.
The Bay of Pigs: Both games were played at a very high level and are not undeserving of such a title.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I think the coach that struggled the most with the Championship Experience was Mike McCarthy. The biggest complaint I had with Packers is that they only ran the ball to Ryan Grant 13 times. Similar to the Cowboys last week the Packers became very one dimensional in the second half. Getting away from the run eliminated their play action passing and short passing game. It’s hard to stay with something that is only gaining one yard, as it feels like a wasted play. Again, the problem is that the Giants were able to concentrate on the screens and the short passes, because there was no commitment to the running game. Hindsight is 20-20 and it is hard to argue with putting the game in the hands of your Hall of Fame QB. I think the Packers should have found a way to have better balance in the second half and part of their struggles was too many passing plays.
Hospital Visit: The biggest injury of the weekend was the one to LT. He was only able to carry the ball a couple times before leaving the game. Gates was also a non factor with his 2 catches for 17 yards. The Chargers could have used those playmakers when they settled for 3 field goals from 26 yards or less. Phillip Rivers will need knee surgery, but anticipates being ready for training camp. Otherwise the winners have two weeks to recover from the bitter cold.
Coaching Carousel: First, Tony Dungy announced that he was coming back to the Colts for 2008. John Harbaugh, the older brother of Jim Harbaugh was hired awa from the Eagles staff to be the headman of the Ravens. He is a surprising hire, but that isn’t a bad thing. I don’t think too many people predicted big things from Mike McCarthy when he was hired. That leaves the Atlanta and Washington positions still vacant.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) The Patriots show why they are the best team in the NFL – Here is why the Patriots are by far the best team in the NFL. Tom Brady played arguably his worst game of the season in the AFC Championship Game. He was 22 for 33 for 209 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He had a QB rating of 66.4 or almost half of his season total. Furthermore Randy Moss had 1 catch for 18 yards and 1 rush for 14 yards. Yet the Patriots were able to win the game. Maroney is able to top the 100-yard rushing mark. The Patriots defense holds the Chargers to 4 field goals, 3 of which were attempts of 26 yards or less. That is the difference between the Patriots and the rest of the teams in the NFL. I am not taking anything away from Tom Brady. He had arguably the best regular season in the history of the NFL for any position. He is a first Ballot Hall of Famer. He is in the conversation for best QB of all time. He made plays when the Patriots needed them. But the difference between the Patriots and the rest of the league is that when he plays a bad game the rest of the team can find ways to come to the rescue. Brett Favre did not have a bad game on Sunday. You could argue before the pick he played a better game than Brady. Both were very average considering their Hall of Fame status. But when #4 plays average, the Packers don’t have a very good shot of winning. When Favre plays well, Ryan Grant can have 201 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. But the key is that #4 is at his best. Grant hasn’t proven he can carry the offense when Favre is struggling. Maroney was able to do that with Brady struggling, which is amazing. The same can be said for Peyton Manning. Addai is a great running back, but he needs Manning to play well for him to play well. When Tom Brady doesn’t play well (which isn’t often) the Patriots are the best in the league at finding other ways to win in spite of that. One hundred yard rushers and an all-pro defense materialize to save the day. That is why the Patriots are in the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years. That is why they are going for the first undefeated season since 1972.
2) The Giants dominated the time of possession – The biggest thing the Giants did in that game was they controlled the time of possession. The Giants defense didn’t put up gaudy sack numbers or tackle numbers. What they did is they found
