Sorry I was a little late with this posting. The Memorial Day Weekend Holiday set me a bit behind. This is my fourth of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC South was arguably the weakest division in the NFL in 2007. Tampa Bay was the only divisional winner in 2007 not to win 10 games. Tampa Bay fans will point to the fact that they sat a lot of starters the last two weeks that resulted in their 9- 7 record. Still the Buccaneers were 5-1 in the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Panthers and Saints were 3-3 against the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Falcons were 3-7 outside the division. This is a division that really struggled to win games against teams in other divisions. No team is vastly superior to the other, with the exception of Atlanta. Even they could potentially finish out of the cellar if Ryan plays well as a rookie and things bounce their way. It is difficult to argue that this is anything other than a wide-open race in 2008.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC South.

1) New Orleans Saints

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 379 (12th)

Points Allowed: 388 (25th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 115-141 (.449) (27th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Saints have a terrific passing offense. The Saints ranked 3rd in passing yards as Drew Brees had 4,423 yards passing. The problem is that he had a 1 touchdown, 11 picks, and a 52.7 QB rating in his first 4 games. The Saints dug a 0-4 hole for themselves. In his last 12 games he had 28 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, and a 103.1 QB rating. The problem is you don’t get to mulligan the first 4 games of the season. Despite going 7-3 in their next 10 games they lost their last 2 games to close the season and missed the playoffs.

The problem is they were so inconsistent during the season. They beat Jacksonville 41-24 and followed that up with a 37-29 loss to the Rams where they were routed for the first 3 quarters. This team has to work on their consistency. They can’t go in the tank for 4 games, win 4 in a row, and then lose to teams like the Rams. They have to bring it every Sunday.

There are a lot of good weapons in place. Brees is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Colston is entering his 3rd season and looks primed to have a season similar to what Braylon Edwards did in 2007. Reggie Bush still has his faults, but when used properly is an explosive weapon. The Saints used him in too many reverses last season and gadget plays. They need to get back to the way they used him in 2006, which was as a spark plug, not the featured player in the offense. The injury to McAllister hurt them with that, but they were struggling to get Bush going while both were in the lineup. Stecker had a solid end to the season and gives them more weapons. Henderson, Meacham, and Johnson are all quality targets. The Saints have a stockpile of offensive weapons.

The Saints can put up points in bunches. If they can cut down on their turnovers and play with more consistency, they will score even more points and should win more games than in 2007.

Weaknesses: The Saints were the only team to attempt more than 600 passes in 2007 with 652. They ran the ball only 392 times, which ranked 7th worst in the league. That means they passed the ball 62.5 percent of the time and ran the ball only 37.5 percent of the time. The result was a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the NFL and a scoring offense that ranked 12th. With the problems this team had on defense, they weren’t able to overcome that hurdle.

For as good of a play caller as Payton was in 2006 he was equally bad in 2007, especially in the first 4 games of the season. The Saints have to find ways to run the ball, cut down on turnovers, and pass the ball down the field. They threw the ball way too much to Bush and not enough to the receivers down the field. If the defense stacks the line of scrimmage, you can’t throw the ball to Bush and expect him to run through and by everyone. He has not yet shown that type of ability.

The Saints concentrated on improving their defense this off-season. They traded for Jonathan Vilma. He is much more suited as the middle linebacker in a 4-3. The Jets going to a 3-4 really hurt his production. If he can return to his 2004 and 2005 form that will help the Saints defense considerably. They drafted Ellis in the first round out of USC to improve their defensive tackle position. They added Bobby McCray. Those two should help the Saints improve on a rush defense that ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL. It should also improve the pass rush. McCray will also give them insurance should Charles Grant have to miss time with his legal problems. He has been indicted by a Georgia grand jury with involuntary manslaughter.

They also improved their secondary. Randall #### is an upgrade. They also drafted Tracy Porter in the second round from Indiana. The Saints are hoping that with a couple additional pass rushers and a few more defensive backs they can improve on their 30th ranked defense. The Saints secondary is by no means perfect, but should not give up quite as many big plays as they did in 2007.

Prediction: I am still bitter at the New Orleans Saints for their 2007 season. It isn’t that I’m a Saints fan. My preseason prediction in 2007 was for the New England Patriots to beat the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl. The fact that they didn’t even qualify for the playoffs was annoying to say the least.

The most troubling thing was that they missed the playoffs because of poor play and inconsistency. It wasn’t as if Brees was lost for the season early and altered the dynamic of their season. They couldn’t run the ball and they couldn’t stop the pass. That keeps other offenses on the field to exploit the Saints weakness and the result was blowouts to good teams and a lot of losses to bad teams that were unexplainable.

I think they have improved this defense. I’m not saying it will be confused with the 2000 Ravens, but I think that Vilma, Ellis, McCray, ####, and Porter should help. I also think Payton is a good coach that had a bad year. He will reevaluate his play calling and try to go down the field more this season.

The schedule looks good for them. It is one of the easier ones in the NFL. The AFC West is going through a transition and the NFC North has some winnable games. Washington and San Fran are winnable games as well. They aren't in a AFC South type of division, so they should be okay there.

I went back and forth on whether to pick the Saints to win the NFC South for a second straight year. After much debate, I finally decided to give them another try. That doesn’t mean I think they are a Super Bowl team, but I do think that if they play to their talents, they have the best shot to win the NFC South.

New Orleans’ Record: 10-6 – NFC South Divisional Champion; NFC #3 Seed

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

07 Record: 9-7

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 270 (3rd)

Playoff Result: Lost in the NFC Wildcard Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Buccaneers had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2007. The Bucs finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 170.5 yards per game. They finished third in points allowed with 16.9. There only real weakness on defense was stopping the run, which ranked 17th.

They didn’t do well on defense by putting a lot of pressure on the QB. Their 33 sacks ranked tied for 16th in the NFL. They didn’t pick a lot of passes. Their 16 passes ranked tied for 17th in the NFL. Their completion percentage allowed of 60.6 ranked only 15th in the NFL. So how did this pass defense rank number 1 over the NY Giants, San Diego Chargers, and New England Patriots who all ranked much higher in sacks and turnovers?

The explanation is two-fold. 1) It helped that they did not play most of the top passing offenses. They drew Tennessee and Jacksonville with Garrard injured. They drew Atlanta and Carolina twice without Delhomme. They played the NFC West 49ers and Rams. Washington had passing issues. The best passing offenses they played in 2007 were Arizona, Detroit, Indy, Houston, New Orleans twice, and Seattle. Only Indy and Seattle made the playoffs, which Tampa Bay was blown out by in both games.

The second reason is that they were good at controlling the clock and playing field position. They ranked 11th in both rushing yards and rushing attempts. They tied for first in the NFL with interceptions thrown, tossing just 8. Jeff Garcia had only 4 interceptions on the season, 3 of them coming in the Jacksonville game. That combination resulted in an offense that did not put the Bucs defense in bad position on he field. Even though the Bucs didn’t force turnovers and sacks, the opposing offense had to go the distance.

That isn’t to say that the Bucs defense doesn’t have talent. Derrick Brooks is still a great linebacker. Gaines Adams had 6 sacks in his rookie season and should look to approach double-digit sacks in 2008. Ronde Barber is still a very respected cornerback. There are a lot of quality players on that defense.

The problem for the Bucs is that Brooks is 35 and Barber is 33. Those are two of their best players. The Bucs have done a good job of adding defensive talent. They drafted Aqib Talib to add youth to the secondary and replace Brian Kelly who left for Detroit in free agency. The Bucs must continue to get younger on defense as the last remaining pieces to their 2002 Super Bowl team are reaching the twilight of their brilliant careers.

Weaknesses: The offense was not very explosive in 2007. The Bucs were 20th in points scored with 20.9. They were 18th in yards, 16th in passing yards, and 11th in rushing yards. If Tampa Bay wants to take the next step, they have to do better on offense.

Jeff Garcia did make the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement. He is 38. The Bucs do not have a shortage of quarterbacks behind him. Simms, Griese, Gradkowski, and even the retired Jake Plummer are all property of Tampa Bay and with the exception of Plummer ready to play on a minutes notice. Galloway had his third straight 1,000-yard season in Tampa Bay, but turns 37 years old in November. Earnest Graham filled in well for the injured Cadillac Williams and had 898 rushing yards to go with his 10 rushing touchdowns. Warrick Dunn should do well in Gruden’s offense as a pass catcher, but he too is 33 years old.

There just isn’t a lot after that. Williams has been injured and disappointing since a strong rookie campaign in 2005. Ike Hilliard had 722 yards and 1 touchdown in 2007 as the number 2 receiver. Michael Clayton has fewer yards (1029) in his last 3 seasons than he did in his rookie season of 2004 with 1,193. He has been beyond disappointing. They just don’t have a lot of weapons after Galloway to throw down the field to. Tight End has been a nonexistent position. Alex Smith led the way with 385 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Bucs tried to upgrade their receiver position with Dexter Jackson in the second round. He biggest contribution will probably come in the return game. The Bucs figure to have to win with strong defense, good running, short passes, and no turnovers in 2008. They just don't have the firepower to challenge the top offenses in the NFL.

Prediction: This is always a tough division to pick. The Falcons won the division in 04, the Panthers in 05, the Saints in 06, and the Buccaneers in 07. It seems like any team could win this division year in and year out and the Bucs have the defense to compete.

I like the Bucs defense, but I still don’t understand how they won the division over the Saints in 2007. While Garcia was a nice addition and defense does go along way to helping a team win games, the Saints passing game was vastly superior and should have been enough to carry them, even with their 0-4 start. Had Payton not called that gadget play against the Bucs late in the 4th quarter that gave Tampa Bay new life, New Orleans would have tied Tampa Bay for the division lead in Week 13 and Tampa Bay would probably not have been able to rest everyone to close the season. Things could have turned out much different.

This team reminds me of Baltimore in 2006. The individual and team statistics do not scream division winner, but at the end of the year they are on top. Coaching was as much the difference in 2007 in the NFC South as anything. Jon Gruden is by far the best coach in that division.

I think Garcia can still lead this offense and they have intriguing backups should he go down. Detroit, Chicago, Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver all offer potential for wins. Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Diego could all be very tough.

I just think their key defenders are a year older, the offense doesn’t look much better, and the schedule is tougher. I know they could have finished above 9-7 had they played all their players the last couple weeks, but I just don’t see this team repeating in the division. I think they finish near .500, make things interesting in the division, and compete with Carolina for 2nd place in this always-volatile division.

Tampa Bay’s Record: 8–8 NFC South 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Carolina Panthers

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 267 (26th)

Points Allowed: 349 (15th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)

Strengths: Given the offense the Panthers played with in 2007, the defense did very well to finish 15th in points allowed. While the Panthers defense was weaker than previous seasons, they still finished in the middle of the pack in the NFL.

The Panthers added some nice talent in the draft. Dan Conner is a good linebacker from a solid linebacker program in Penn State. He should contribute. Charles Godfrey is a defensive back that could see the field immediately.

The Panthers secondary still has solid corners. Gamble and Lucas are excellent in coverage. They have to improve on their 31st ranked pass rush, which generated 23 sacks if they want to get the full production out of those guys. They can’t be effective if the quarterback has all day to throw the ball.

On offense, Steve Smith is still a top-flight wide receiver. DJ Hackett was a good addition. Muhsin Muhammad is well past his prime, but is familiar with Carolina and can help as a possession wide receiver. Dwayne Jarrett needs to step up in his second year. He had just 6 catches for 73 yards in his rookie campaign. Jeff King has the potential to put up good numbers at the tight end position. A healthy Jake Delhomme would go along way to helping all of these players put up better numbers in 2008.

Weaknesses: The Panthers had a very strange year in 2007. They started off 4-2. Steve Smith is their only really scary weapon. He had 35 catches for 496 yards and 6 touchdowns in those 6 games. That would have translated to 93 catches for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns for the season.

Then Jake Delhomme was injured in his 3rd game of the season and was lost for the year. Smith had some good games with Tesaverde, but really struggled to get even a few catches with Carr and Moore. He finished with just 52 catches for 506 yards and 1 touchdown in his last 10 games. As a result, the offense scored only 14.4 points over the final 10 games. The result was a 3-7 finish to the season.

The defense, which had been a stable of this team, did not perform very well in 2007. They finished only 15th in the league in scoring defense. That was tied for their worst season since John Fox took over in 2002. A lot of that had to do with the offense not being able to give them a lead or keep them in good field position. Still, 3-time Pro Bowl and 2-time NFL All-Pro first team defensive end Julius Peppers has to have more than 2.5 sacks. He was awful in 2007. It was his only season other than 2003 where he failed to register double digit sacks. That was a major reason why the Panthers finished so low in the sack department. He is moving to right defensive end with the retirement of Mike Rucker.

Foster and Williams teamed up to be the 14th best rushing attack in 2007. Foster is gone to San Fran and Williams has yet to show he can be an every down back. That factored into the Panthers selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th pick. If he can be healthy by the start of the season the Panthers should be more effective running the ball. The Panthers also added massive tackle Jeff Oath to upgrade the run blocking and pass protection from the tackle spot. Jordan Gross is one of the best in the business. If those two can excel in 2008, that will help the entire offense.

Prediction: The whole key to the season is whether or not Mr. Delhomme can stay healthy and whether Peppers can return to 10 plus sack form. Peppers should have a better year. He is not past his prime and has a lot of years left.

While Delhomme is not among the elite quarterbacks in the league he has proven he can lead this team to victory. He can throw the ball downfield to Steve Smith and manage the offense. He played very well in the Super Bowl back in 2003 and led the Panthers to a NFC Championship appearance in 2005. The only question with him has been consistency and interceptions, until health crept into the picture the last 2 seasons.

Without him, Matt Moore is the new starter and as we saw last year, that isn’t really a good thing. In his 3 starts the Panthers went 2-1, but that 1 win was against the resting Buccaneers to close the season. In the other two starts the Panthers scored 13 points in each contest. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield on a regular basis.

While Delhomme was very healthy from 2003 to 2005, he just hasn’t been the last 2 seasons. He missed 3 starts in 2006 and 13 last year. He had season ending surgery to his elbow on his throwing arm and is still not throwing at full strength. That is not what you want from your starter in June.

The Panthers made some upgrades at wide receiver, running back, and on defense in the draft. They should be improved. The Saints are a puzzling team and the Buccaneers have their share of issues. I would not be shocked if the Panthers competed for the division.

I considered picking them for the top spot, but I just am not confident that Delhomme will be healthy or effective the entire season and I don’t think a team can win consistently in the NFL with Moore starting games. I don’t pick teams to do well in June that are going through quarterback health questions. See the 2007 Eagles and 2006 Dolphins for reasons why I don’t do that. I look for more of the same for the Panthers in 2008 as they try to make the playoffs and save John Fox’s job. The once hot young coach’s hot seat will get even hotter if the Panthers miss the playoffs.

Carolina’s Record: 7-9 – NFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Atlanta Falcons

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 259 (29th)

Points Allowed: 414 (29th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Falcons are a team that is in complete rebuilding mode. When Michael Vick pleaded guilty to federal dog fighting charges the face of their franchise was stripped from them. Bobby Petrino was in his first year coaching and was not able to handle the transition from the college game to the pro game with that bombshell. The result was a 3-10 record before he resigned. Former Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith has been entrusted to get this franchise back on track.

The Falcons had a number of good parts last season. Roddy White broke out in his 3rd season for 83 catches, 1,202 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback cast that was a very productive year. Jerious Norwood looked impressive at times and has a lot of big play potential. He had 103 carries for 603 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, while adding 277 receiving yards. Even though Warrick Dunn has returned to Tampa Bay, Norwood will not be the number one guy. Michael Turner was the prized free agent the Falcons signed in free agency. After backing up LT for 4 seasons it is his time to be the number one guy. The two will form a very good running back duo.

The defense was not very good in 2007, but a few players did stand out. John Abraham was able to tally 10 sacks. Keith Brooking is still a very underappreciated linebacker. Chris Houston is a young cornerback that the Falcons hope will develop into a starter now that Hall is a Raider.

Jason Elam was a big signing on special teams. Morton Anderson was reliable, but not from long range. Elam will give them better production on long field goals and the kickoff game. He is a clutch kicker with the game on the line and could help the Falcons steal a couple close games.

Weaknesses: The Falcons really bottomed out last season. They ranked 29th in both scoring offense and defense. They were 23rd in offensive yards gained and 29th in defensive yards allowed. While they had some players that gave good individual contributions, it didn’t result in a good showing for the team.

I really believe that Bobby Petrino was a large part of the problem. He did not connect well with his players and obviously did not want to be there. His fights with Hall were well documented. I thought his exit to Arkansas the night after a tough Monday Night loss was gutless. Mike Smith should be a much better hire and is much more disciplined. He should be able to take this team forward.

Matt Ryan was a huge draft pick. He gives the Falcon fans something to hope for. Michael Vick did give the Falcons a lot of good years and his legal problems should not diminish that. However, the Falcons have to move on and Matt Ryan has the potential to be the franchise quarterback the Falcons need now more than ever.

It will be interesting to see if they throw him in the fire now or wait until 2009. My guess is that Redman or Harrington could start the season and that by the middle of the year Ryan will be the number one guy. However, I could see where the Falcons throw the youngster into the fire on day one. Ryan is signed so he will be at training camp on day one. This won't be a Russell situation from last year where the Raiders had not choice but to sit the September arrival most of the season. How Ryan does in training camp will go a long way to determining his opening day status. Either way, it is going to hamper the Falcons from joining the top passing offenses in 2008. This is a rebuilding year and the Falcons must accept that.

The Falcons improved their offensive line by drafting Sam Baker in the first round. He should help the Falcons continue to upgrade the offensive line. They also added Harry Douglas to give their QBs another target on offense.

On defense they added Curtis Lofton to upgrade their linebacker core. In the secondary they added Chevis Jaskson and Thomas DeCoud. The Falcons are trying to retool a defense that had ranked in the middle of the NFL over the 3 seasons prior to 2007. The first round was geared to offense, with some of their other picks going to upgrade the defense.

Prediction: I like what the Falcons did this off-season. I thought Ryan was a solid pick. I like the Turner signing. I like that they brought in Elam. The division is not very strong and they have an easy schedule based on last year’s results. That said it is very hard to win in this league with a rookie quarterback. Even if Harrington or Redman starts the season neither has proven they can win week in and week out in the NFL.

The key for the Falcons will be a fast start. They get Detroit, Tampa, Kansas City, and Carolina to open the season. The rest of the schedule is a mix of easier teams, like Oakland and tougher teams like Green Bay and Philadelphia. They have some tough games at the end of November and beginning of December, which include San Diego, at New Orleans, Tampa, and at Minnesota.

All in all, I look for the Falcons to be a more competitive team and not be outscored by over 9 points per game. That probably won't show much in the win column, but it will make for better football in Atlanta. However, I don’t see where they will get much more than 5 wins in 2008. That doesn’t mean they aren’t on the right track. It means it takes time to rebuild a franchise. If they can develop their young talent and have another good off-season in 2009 they may be able to start thinking about competing for a playoff spot.

Atlanta’s Record: 5-11 – NFC South 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

As I stated in my last post, I am going to post one division each week.  I'll list what I feel are each team's strengths and weaknesses.  I'll then try to predict the record and placing in the division.  After I have done all the divisions, I will make my playoff and Super Bowl predictions.  My first division was the NFC East.   This week I’ll be looking at the NFC South.

 New Orleans Saints

Strengths:  This team returns an offense that was as explosive as any offense in the NFL last season.  Entering the 2006 season, the New Orleans Saints were in a state of flux.  Hurricane Katrina had devastated the region, turning the Saints into a weekly road team.  They finished with the season having earned the second pick in the draft.   Despite a new coaching staff and young players, the Saints had one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last season.  Consider the following facts.  1) Sean Payton was a rookie NFL head coach. 2) Drew Brees was in the first year of the offense coming off major shoulder surgery, 3) Duece McAllister was coming off season ending knee surgery, 4) Marcees Colston and Reggie Bush played major roles in the offense, despite being rookies, and 5) Their best wide out, Joe Horn was injured for 6 games last season, and basically was a non factor all season.  The result was the fifth most points scored in the NFL.  With the veteran players spending another year in the system, the younger players gaining valuable experience, and the top 4 draft picks being spent on offense, the sky is the limit for this offense.   

Weaknesses:  The main weakness last season was the rush defense, which finished 23rd in the league.  Because the Saints had the 3rd ranked passing defense, they were able to finish a respectable 13th in scoring defense.   When the Saints were able to stop people, they won.  In their 6 losses the Saints gave up an average of 28.7 points per game.   This was opposed to the 15 points per game they gave up in their victories.  It’s no accident that the Bears, Bengals, Panthers, Ravens, Redskins, and Steelers were able to beat the Saints last season.   All had thousand yard rushers with the exception of the Panthers.  All except the Bengals win with conservative running games.   Jason David was a nice addition to the secondary.  However, the Saints have done very little to sure up their shaky run defense.      

Prediction:   I think this division is relatively easy to pick.   Despite, New Orleans weakness at stopping the run, its hard to run on a team that can put points up this quickly.  It’s a very similar problem that teams have facing the Colts.  Ideally you would like to run 40 times a game, but it is so hard to do when the offense scores as quickly as they do.  This offense should be even better than it was last season.  McAllister will be another year removed from knee surgery, Bush and Colsten a year older, and Brees has one year in the system.  The Saints defense does not need to be super.  It just needs to be able force turnovers and not get run over.  The schedule is tough.  They have road games at Indy and at Chicago.  They play the Seahawks and improved 49ers.   However, I like the direction the Saints are headed.  I think the Panthers are the only team in the division that has a realistic chance of challenging the Saints.  In the end, I look for the Saints to comfortably win this division.  

Record:  12-4, NFC South Division Title, NFC #1 seed     

Carolina Panthers

Strengths:   The strength of the Panthers has always been their defense.   Julius Peppers is on the short list of people considered the best defender in football.   Last season produced a team that was ranked 9th in scoring defense, 7th in total yards, and 4th in pass yards.  I think their 11th ranked rush defense was the result of an offense that rarely produced big enough leads to prevent teams from being able to run the football.  Steve Smith is one of the best receivers in all of football.  DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams give the Panthers some weapons at running back.  Coach Fox has proven to be an excellent NFL coach.  

Weaknesses:  The Panthers and Saints are polar opposites.  While the Panthers have a shut down defense, their offense is too often shut down.   Part of the problem was that Steve Smith was injured to start the season.  The Panthers got off to a slow start, and never seemed to be able to develop any flow on offense.  However, one receiver should not dictate the success of an offense to this degree.  If a receiver has 10 catches, he has had an unbelievable game.  What do you do the other 60 times you are on offense?  Jake Delhomme has to play better this year.  Keyshawn Johnson was brought in to take pressure off Steve Smith and allow Jake Delhomme to find other options.   While Johnson was able to grab 70 passes, the offense did not improve.  The Panthers are obviously not sold that Delhomme is the answer, evidenced by the signing of David Carr.  It will be interesting how the team responds if Delhomme gets off to a slow start and creates a quarterback controversy.  The Panthers need to find ways to score when Steve Smith is not involved in the game.   With the waiving and subsequent retirement of Keyshawn Johnson, the Panthers are going to have to make due with Kerry Colbert, Drew Carter, and rookie Dwayne Jarrett.  While Steve Smith is an exceptional receiver, besides him, I do not see where this team has enough playmakers to consistently score on offense.  As in the past, the Panthers will need to rely on their defense if they are going to win games this year. 

Prediction:  The old saying is that defense wins championships.  So long as Peppers, Jenkins, and the other Panthers stay healthy and make plays, Carolina should put itself in position to make the playoffs as a wildcard.   The Panthers had better get off to a good start of the season.  Beginning with Week 11, the Panthers play the Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Cowboys, before closing out the season at Tampa.  That is 3 playoff teams, and 2 teams that were in contention for the playoffs until the final game of the season, and the busiest free agent team in the NFL this offseason.  The Panthers cannot go into that stretch with a 5-4 record and expect to be able to turn their season around.   I believe the Panthers will be very similar to last season.  They will be good enough to sweep the Saints, but inconsistent enough to lose at Washington and Minnesota.  I look for the Panthers to finish next season 9-7, but miss the playoffs. 

Record: 9-7, 2nd NFC South, No Playoffs. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strengths:  Again, when you have the fourth pick in the draft, strengths can be hard to find.  Jon Gruden has proven to be one of the top coaches in the game.  While the 4-12 campaign was frustrating last season, there is hope that with a solid head coach, this can be turned around.  Gruden is probably coaching for his job.  If he has a losing season, it will mark the third time in four seasons.  Even with a 2002 Super Bowl title, it would be hard to keep his job.  This team is very similar to the Panthers, in that the strength of the team has traditionally been the defense.    Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber are perennial Pro Bowlers.  However, the Bucs defense has gotten older the last few years and slipped to 21st in scoring defense last season.  Part of the problem was that the Bucs only scored 211 points on offense, which was 31st in the NFL.  It is hard for a defense to put up good numbers when Mike Alstott leads the team with 3 rushing touchdowns.   Keep in mind thought that the Raiders had the 32nd ranked yardage offense and the 3rd ranked yardage defense.  The Bucs defense does not escape blame for last season.  The Bucs clearly committed themselves to improving their aging defense by spending 6 of their first 7 players in the draft on the defensive side of the ball.  Selecting Gaines Adams, considered the best defensive prospect in the draft, was their key move of the offseason.   

Weaknesses:  The main problem with this team was the offense.  The strength of the offense was its 26th ranked passing attack.  Sad, but when you consider they were 28th in rushing offense, 29th in total yards, and 31st in total points, the passing attack flourished.  I think the Bucs front office figured that while the offense was disappointing last season, the main problem was that Chris Simms was knocked out early in the season.  Galloway has been a 1,000 yard receiver the last two seasons, Cadillac Williams gained 1,000 yards on the ground two seasons ago, and Michael Clayton gained 1,000 yards receiving his rookie year, before bombing out the last two seasons.  With Jeff Garcia signed this offseason, the hope has to be that with a legitimate threat at quarterback, the pieces in place will return to their previous form.  Jon Gruden has had success with older quarterbacks, such as Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon.  If the Bucs can avoid the injuries that plagued them the last few seasons, their offense should improve from the pitiful numbers it produced last season.  

Prediction:  This team is hard to figure out.  The 2005 team went 11-5 and hosted a first round playoff game.  That team was not an offensive juggernaut either, finishing 20th in points scored.  The problem that I am seeing is that the 11-5 team had the number one defense in terms of yardage allowed.  They had the eighth best scoring defense that year.  It is clear the Bucs are trying to rebuild this defense; evidenced by the draft they had this year.  While the Bucs defense should be improved over last season, I don’t think it is back to the level it was at in the Super Bowl years.  It really isn’t fair to use the 2006 season as a barometer for this year either.  The Bucs got off to a 0-4 start, Chris Simms got hurt, and the rest was history.  Jeff Garcia is going to improve this offense.  The schedule is a mix of hard an easy.  The Bucs have games against the Lions, Texans, and Redskins.  The key to their season will be the first six weeks.  It’s brutal.  At Seahawks, Saints, Rams, at Panthers, at Colts, Titians.  Those teams were 55-41 last season.  Three were divisional winners last season.  I think the Bucs will be better than the 2006 team, but not as good as the 2005 team.  7-9 would be a 3 game improvement, and with another good offseason, the Bucs should be poised to return to the post season next year.   

Record:  7-9, 3rd Place NFC South, No Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons

Strengths:  The strength of this has been the running game.  While Michael Vick is up and down, he is exciting to watch no matter how he is playing.  Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn both rushed for over 1,000 yards last season.  Alge Crumpler is among the top tight ends in the league last season.    The rush defense was the 9th best in the NFL.  The defense was a respectful 15th in the league.   The Falcons had a very solid draft.  Blalock and Anderson look to be starters next season.  Houston will probably be the nickel back. 

Weaknesses:  I see a lot of weaknesses on this team.  The most glaring one is the lack o####ood wide receiver.  While Crumpler has been a good target, the receivers have been woeful.  The Falcons are projected to start Michael Jenkins and Joe Horn.  Joe Horn was hurt for most of the season.  However, after having four 1000 yard seasons and averaging 9 touchdowns per season, he has been injured the last two seasons and has dropped to 1333 yards and 5 touchdowns for the last two seasons combined.  This is an older player that appears to be in decline.  While he is still a good player, he needs to stay healthy.  The second weakness is Michael Vick.  This offseason has been an embarrassment.  I can’t think of a starting quarterback that has entered a season with this many off the field issues.  The off field problems aside, he has a career 53.8 completion percentage, and has only gone over 2500 yards one season in his career.  While his running makes for an exciting time, he needs to be able to deliver the ball with a higher level of consistency.  He has had games where he has shown to be capable of that.  Now he has to put that together.  The third problem is the pass defense, which ranked 29th in the league last season.  While Houston should upgrade that area, the Falcons must stop the pass better this year if they hope to compete.  The fourth problem is the new coach, Bobby Petrino.  While he is a good coach, he was a good coach at Louisville.  I can think of a lot of college coaches that have flamed out after hitting the professional level.  Steve Spurrier, Dennis Erickson, Rich Brooks, and Butch Davis all come to mind.  While supporters of college coaches will point to Jimmy Johnson, there have been far more that have bombed in recent years then have succeeded.  Maybe if the Vikings are willing to trade their entire draft for Michael Vick, he has a shot.  Bobby Petrino is going to have to prove that his creative pass offense will translate to pro success.  While Arthur Blank tried to make a splash by hiring a big name, many of the top head coaches got their starts as professional coordinators, not college head coaches.  Only time will tell if this was a good hire. 

Prediction:  I’m not very sold on this team.  While Joe Horn is an upgrade over their receivers last season, I am not sure whether he will stay healthy enough to make a difference.  Everything besides him is very suspect.  Michael Vick’s offseason cannot be good for this team.  It is hard to prepare for a season, when you don’t know if the star quarterback and face of the franchise is going to be suspended or in jail.  The reports I have been reading say there is enough evidence to warrant and indictment, but probably not enough for a conviction.  That’s not a good sign, seeing the story broke just a month ago, and the season doesn’t start for over three months.  If the investigation makes as much progress in the next three months, as it has since it broke, Michael Vick might not be the quarterback to start the season.  Even if it takes longer for the case to develop, the NFL schedule is tough enough, without having to worry about these off the field problems.  Hopefully his cool new hairstyle will make the difference and convince authorities to set him free.  The Falcons traded their promising backup, Matt Shaub.  While they signed Joey Harrington, he has not proven to be a winning option.  The defense should be better with players they added in the draft, I’m just not convinced this team is heading in the right direction.  The Falcons were 7-9 last year.  The division has been competitive for all four teams the last five years.  During that span, this is the only division in football where every team has played in the championship game.  Tampa has won a Super Bowl, and Carolina lost a nail biter.  In a weaker division, the Falcons may be able to survive these offseason distractions.  I look for them to fall back even further in this traditionally competitive division. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place NFC South, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the predictions.  I will try to post the NFC North sometime next week.