I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Steve McNair on a terrific 13 year NFL career with the Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens.  Steve McNair was one of those guys that you respected even though he wasn’t on your team.  He always gave 110% and played through a slew of injuries.  He was a great ambassador for the Mississippi area when his home state was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina.  He is someone the NFL will miss not only for his on the field play, but the great contributions that he had off the field.

Steve McNair came into the NFL as a Division I-AA Walter Payton Award winner.  His nickname in college was Air-McNair, a name he earned for the wide open offense he ran at Alcorn State.  In his senior season he threw for 4,863 yards and rushed for 936 yards.  He also threw for 44 touchdowns.  That prompted the Houston Oilers to select him 3rd in the 1995 NFL Draft.

After only playing in 4 games his rookie season and 9 games his second season learning behind Chris Chandler he was put into the starting lineup in 1997.  From 1997 to 2003, McNair missed only nine of the possible 112 regular-season starts.  Five of those misses were due to back surgery.  Steve McNair developed a reputation of being able to play through injuries that most players would not dare try.  He and Brett Favre were widely considered the two toughest quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Titans finished 8-8 in both 1997 and 1998.  In 1999 the pieces finally started to come together for the Titans.  Steve McNair was coming into his own as a NFL quarterback.  Eddie George dominated the running game.  Frank Wycheck was a Pro Bowl tight end.  Derrick Mason was a dangerous return man that would come into his own the following year.  The defense received the piece it was missing by drafting a Florida defensive end named Jevon “The Freak” Kearse.  The Titans would finish 1999 13-3, but second in the division to the 14-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Thankfully for the Titans, the Jags two losses were to the Titans.  After beating the Bills in the Music City Miracle and the Colts in a Divisional Round contest, the Titans would beat the Jaguars for the 3rd time that season and advance to the Super Bowl.  They would lose to the St Louis Rams 23-16.  In the closing seconds of the game McNair hit Andre Dyson who sprinted for the endzone.  He was stopped 1-yard shy of the endzone and from potentially sending the game to overtime.

The Titans would build off that win in 2000 and go 13-3 with the best record in football.  They were the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but were upset in the Divisional Round by the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens.  After finishing 7-9 in 2001 they would bounce back to go 11-5 in 2002 and advance to the AFC Championship Game, where they would lose to the Oakland Raiders.  In 2003 they finished 12-4 and Steve McNair shared his first and only MVP award with Peyton Manning.  The Titans would win their first round game against Baltimore, but fell to eventual champion New England. 

By 2004 the salary cap had started to catch up with the Titans.  Forced to cut many of their high priced veteran starters the Titans crashed to 5-11 in 2004 and 4-12 in 2005.  McNair started only 8 games in 2004 and 14 in 2005.  By then the Titans wanted to move on and draft Vince Young.  What followed was a messy parting of the ways, in which McNair was banned from the team facilities and had to sue the Titans.  Eventually McNair won his lawsuit and the Titans and Ravens worked out a trade to send McNair to Baltimore. 

In 2006 McNair led the Ravens to a 13-3 record and was again back in the playoffs.  However, after earning a first round bye the Ravens would fall to the eventual champion Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round 15-6.  Of McNair’s 5 playoff losses, 4 were to the eventual Super Bowl Champion and the other was to the 2002 Oakland Raiders, who were the runner up that season. 

In 2007 McNair was not right the entire season.  Unable to stay healthy he only appeared in 6 games.  That was the primary factor that led to the announcement of his retirement.  He finished his NFL Career 31,304 yards passing, 174 touchdowns to 119 interceptions and a career QB rating of 82.8.   He also carried for 3,590 yards and 37 touchdowns, which are top 5 career numbers for a quarterback.

Now that Steve McNair has retired the question is going to come up as to whether or not he had a Hall of Fame career.  While I think he was a very good quarterback that enjoyed a fine NFL career and should have absolutely no regrets, I don’t think he played at a high enough level to warrant induction into Canton.  The reasons are as follows:

1) Lack of big regular season numbers – Supporters will look at his 20th career ranking in completions, 23rd in attempts, 28th in passing yards, 43rd in career touchdowns, and his 27th career quarterback rating and conclude that he was a Hall of Famer.  You have to go deeper than that.  First, he played his entire career in the pass friendly era of the late 1990s and 2000s.  His numbers are comparable to Hall of Famers that played the majority or their entire career in the Dead Ball Era.  Second, he finished in the top 10 in completions, attempts, and passing yards only twice.  He was in the top 10 in passing touchdowns only 3 times. 

People will point to his rushing numbers.  That is one of the difficulties in evaluating quarterbacks.  Some people value those rushing numbers more than others.  My belief is that a quarterback’s primary job is to pass the ball and those are the numbers a quarterback should ultimately be judged upon.  Until a rushing quarterback carries a team to multiple rings and redefines the quarterback position I am sticking to that theory.  While the Titans won a lot of games in his tenure, he never accumulated the passing numbers that I believe are necessary for Hall of Fame induction.

2) Lack of Postseason Success in relation to the Regular Season Numbers – McNair went 5-5 in the postseason and did get his team to the Super Bowl once.  While he did not play great in that game he did play well enough to have his team in that game until the last play.  People will compare his career numbers to Troy Aikman and see that McNair outperformed him over the course of his career.  The problem is that Aikman led the Cowboys to 3 Super Bowl rings in a 4 year period.  Had Aikman appeared in one Super Bowl and lost, he wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame either.  In my opinion, Steve McNair didn’t experience enough success in the postseason to make up for his low regular season numbers to make the Hall of Fame. 

3) He didn’t have a sustained period as the best quarterback in the game – Early in his career he didn’t measure up to Troy Aikman, John Elway, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, or Steve Young.  He didn’t measure up to Tom Brady, Brett Favre, or Peyton Manning later in his career.  Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon both had points where they were better quarterbacks.  Both also won MVP awards.  Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb were better at points in their careers.  The result is that while he did win the MVP in 2003, that 4 year stretch from 2000 to 2003 is the only time he was considered an upper echelon quarterback.  He was a 3 time Pro Bowler in 2000, 2003, and 2005; meaning he never put together consecutive Pro Bowls.  He was never a NFL All-Pro.  He never had a season that left fans in awe like Marino in 1984, Farve in 1996, Warner in 1999, Culpepper in 2004, Manning in 2004, and Brady in 2007. 

I believe the Hall of Fame is more about how long you were an elite quarterback than what kind of career numbers you were able to accumulate.  I don’t think that Vinny Testaverde is worthy of Canton induction and he ranks in the top 6 in passing yards, touchdowns, attempts, and completions.   I would definitely put McNair ahead of Vinny, because of the MVP award, rushing production, and the fact that McNair led his team to a Super Bowl appearance.  I just wouldn’t put him in the Hall of Fame.

Again, congratulations to Steve McNair for a wonderful career.  While I don’t believe it was a Hall of Fame career, that in no way should diminish his career accomplishments.  He was an extremely tough player and played through injuries that a lot of guys would not have been able to.  He gave the fans a lot of great moments over the years and always conducted himself with the utmost class.  He was a great ambassador to the NFL both on and off the field.  Most importantly, he was respected through out the NFL.  If the league had more Steve McNairs it would be a better league for it. 

Donovan McNabb has reopened a debate that has been in the NFL forefront for sometime.  McNabb was interviewed by James Brown of HBO Sports and the topic came up as to whether Black NFL Quarterbacks are treated differently than White NFL Quarterbacks.  To summarize his interview, McNabb stated that black NFL quarterbacks face more pressure, scrutiny and criticism than their white counterparts.

I thought it would be interesting to look at this argument statistically and see whether his claims had any merit.  This is the list of the top 5 white quarterbacks playing in 2006:  Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger, and Drew Brees.   I understand that Brett Favre would be on the list if we were looking at this historically.  I also understand Phillip Rivers was in the Pro Bowl and Tom Brady was not.  However, if you were starting a franchise today, these would be the top 5 white quarterbacks that most NFL general managers would have on the top of their list. 

In 2006, the top 5 starting black quarterbacks would be as follows:  Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Vince Young, Steve McNair, and David Garrard.  McNabb did not start the whole year due to injury and Garrard shared time with Byran Leftwich.  To make things fair, I averaged the statistics out based on the number of games played:  Here is what I came up with:

Manning, Brady, Palmer, Bulger, Brees – The five quarterbacks played in an average of 16 games.  They averaged passing for 4,136 yards, 26.6 touchdowns, 10.6 interceptions for the 2006 season.  This comes to an average of 258.5 yards per game, 1.7 touchdown passes, and 0.7 picks per contest.  They combined for an average QB rating of 94.4.  Their teams combined for a record of 50-30 or an average of 10 wins on the 2006 season.  Three of them reached the playoffs.  Those three started in the conference championship games.  Manning went on to win the Super Bowl. 

McNabb, Vick, Young, McNair, Garrard – The five quarterbacks played in 68 out of 80 games.  They averaged passing for 2,421 yards, 15.2 touchdowns, and 10.6 interceptions.  This comes to an average of 178.0 yards per game, 1.1 touchdowns passes, and 0.8 picks per contest.   They combined for an average QB rating of 80.2.  Their teams combined for a record of 9.2 wins, which is just slightly below the star white QBs.  Two of them reached the playoffs, although McNabb was on IR for the playoff run.  McNair lost his first playoff game to Manning’s Colts. 

One thing to keep in mind is that Michael Vick on his own out produced the 5 white QBs in rushing yards and touchdowns.  Young probably did the same.  However, the quarterback position has traditionally been evaluated on the QBs ability to pass the football.   Steve Young was a great scrambler too.  He didn’t start getting his just due until his passing numbers went off the charts.   

The only quarterback on the black quarterback list that rivals the white quarterbacks as a passer are McNair and McNabb.  McNair put up insane numbers while in college.  While he has won an MVP, he has never put up gaudy passing numbers in the pros.  McNabb is very similar to McNair, except he did have one season where he put up gaudy numbers, which was 2004.  The rest of his career he has been a low 3,000 yard passer around 20 touchdown passes. 

It is unfair to judge the black quarterback’s treatment if you are going to compare that treatment to a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, etc.  The reason this is unfair is that their black counterparts are not putting up passing numbers that are even in the realm of equivalence. If there were currently a black quarterback that was throwing for those numbers on a consistent basis, we could compare the treatment.  For instance, if Warren Moon were playing today, we would have a quarterback that was in the same statistical area.  However, because there is currently not a quarterback that is throwing for 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 picks, we are left to compare apples and oranges.

The bottom line is that quarterbacks are judged on two things.  First, and foremost, it is how they throw the ball.  Do they throw for a lot of yards?  Do they score a lot of touchdowns?  Do they throw very few interceptions?  However, doing that alone will not keep you employed.  Ask Jeff George.  Secondly, you not only have to win, but you have to be perceived as the reason your team won.  You have to matter.  That is why Troy Aikman was able to come back in 1994 after throwing 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 1993.  On the other hand, Trent Dilfer, who threw 12 touchdowns and 11 picks in 9 games in 2001 was asked to find a new team to sign his paychecks.  Both won the Super Bowl.  However, Aikman was considered a catalyst for those Super Bowls, where as Dilfer was considered a liability.   

A perfect present day example would be Rex Grossman.  He led his team to the Super Bowl, or followed them there, depending on your perspective.  His team was 13-3, and the number one team in the NFC.  His Bears scored the 2nd most points of any team in the NFL.  He threw for 3193 yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 picks, and had a QB rating of 73.9.  I live in Chicago.  I hear everyday how the Bears need a new QB.  The perception is that the Bears are a QB away from winning the Super Bowl.  The perception is that the Bears are winning despite Grossman, not because of him.  I believe that Rex Grossman is currently the most scrutinized quarterback in the NFL. 

A close second would be Eli Manning.  Not only does he quarterback in New York, but his older brother is arguably the best QB in the game.  He threw for 3,244 yards, 24 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 77.0.  However, he is not his brother.  His Giants started the season 6-2, before finishing 8-8.  They made the playoffs and lost their first round game.  It was widely accepted that if he does deliver a 3,500 yard, 25 touchdown, 15 interception season, with a QB rating in the mid 80s that results in his team making the playoffs; that the Giants would be looking to bring in competition for his job.  The only reason he is not under fire for the Giants 0-2 start is because he has played well and the defense has given up 80 points.  Check back next week for his status. 

Quarterback is the most unfair position to play in sports.  Quarterbacks get way to much credit when the team wins.  The Quarterback gets way to much blame when the team loses.  Quarterback is known as a what have you done lately position.  They can be throwing parades in your honor one day, and throwing you out of town the next.  It is not unprecedented that successful quarterbacks have lost their job rather quickly. 

In 1989 Joe Montana won the League and Super Bowl MVP.  He followed that up with a 14-2 record and a loss in the Championship Game in 1990.  Due to the injury he suffered in that Championship Game, he missed the 1991 season and almost all of the 1992 season.  Despite having won 4 Super Bowls in San Francisco and being widely considered the best QB to ever play the game, the 49ers shipped him to Kansas City for the 1993 season, because they felt Steve Young gave them the best chance to win in 1993.  This was the same Steve Young that had never won a Super Bowl as a starter and was the pre 2006 Peyton Manning of his day, the great QB that couldn’t win the big game.  

Kurt Warner won a Super Bowl in 1999.  He also won the regular season and Super Bowl MVP.  In 2001, he duplicated that regular season MVP performance and lost the Super Bowl.  His offense finished #1 in both scoring and yardage in 1999, 2000, and 2001.  In 2002 he was injured and looked shaky.  By 2003 Marc Bulger had the job in hand.  In 2004, Warner was playing for the Giants. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I am not so naïve that I believe that professional sports is a 100% racist free world.   There is still racism in our society.  Professional sports is part of our society.  Therefore, there is no reason to believe that racism is not present in professional sports.  However, this notion that black quarterbacks have to do something extra to keep their job is, in my opinion, preposterous. 

I don’t know how any quarterback keeps his job.  The Favres, Mannings, and Bradys amaze me with their ability to keep their jobs year after year.  Most owners are not going to hang on to white quarterbacks that can’t produce.  Most of the media is not going to baby white quarterbacks.   The majority of the people associated with the NFL are about winning today.  Not tomorrow and not yesterday. 

What do Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell have in common?  They are all black quarterbacks that were top 5 picks in the draft since 1999, the year Donovan McNabb was selected with the second overall pick.  In comparison, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Tim Couch were the white QBs that shared that honor. 

That means seven white quarterbacks compared to five black quarterbacks taken in the first five picks of the first round since Donovan McNabb was drafted.  Five of the white quarterbacks are starters, compared to two for the black quarterbacks.  If Michael Vick could have avoided legal problems, Joey Harrington wouldn’t be a starter and it would be four to three.  If JaMarcus Russell had not held out the entire preseason, it might have even been a tie. 

Furthermore, JaMarcus Russell, the star black quarterback in this years draft was picked number one, while his white counterpart, Brady Quinn dropped to the end of the first round.  This isn’t the league that Warren Moon was faced with in the late 1970’s.  If a black quarterback proves that he is NFL capable in college, not only will he be drafted, he will be drafted very high.  While some will point to Heisman winner Troy Smith dropping to the 5th round this year, I will point to Eric Crouch, a Heisman winner that was not drafted by the Rams to play QB, but Wide Receiver. If the NFL is putting more pressure, scrutiny and criticism on black quarterbacks than their white counterparts, it sure isn’t showing in the war room on draft day. 

I do not know Donovan McNabb personally.  The impression that I get from Donovan McNabb is that he has a chip on his shoulder.  I think he has that chip on his shoulder because he isn’t held in the same esteem as the other top quarterbacks in the game, something he feels he has earned.  What he is forgetting is that even the league’s elite face tough scrutiny. 

Ask Manning what it is like to be the best QB in the game.  I’m sure he wouldn’t say free from criticism and doubt.  Manning has won 2 League MVPs and threw for 49 touchdowns in a season.  Until last season that wasn’t good enough, because he was the Pro Bowl QB that couldn’t win the “big game.”  He sort of silenced those critics by winning the Super Bowl MVP.  However, the criticism was that while he won the Super Bowl, the defense and running game played too big of a role in delivering that Super Bowl.  He didn’t play well enough to take enough credit for the Colts run.  Therefore he still isn’t the big game QB that he should be.  Talk about tough and unfair criticism. 

Carson Palmer is not being criticized yet, because he has only been starting for 3 years.  Bulger is entering his 5th season as the opening day starter.  Brees is in his second year with New Orleans and is entering his 6th season as a starter.   Furthermore, all three of those teams have horrible defenses that are considered the part of the team that is holding the franchise back.   However, if postseason success eludes these young quarterbacks, they too will soon be labeled as disappointments.  If Brees doesn’t turn around this season, he will be the first to hear those criticisms. 

McNabb has been a starter since the 2000 season.  To his credit, he throws very few interceptions.  McNabb is the second least intercepted quarterback per pass attempt in NFL history, behind only Neil O'Donnell.  McNabb's career ratio is 1 interception per every 45.26 pass attempts.  This leads to his very respectable career QB rating of 85.2.  He makes a lot of exciting plays and played in four consecutive championship games from 2001-2004.  He went to the Super Bowl 2004.  In his defense, other than 2004, he has never had a game changing wide receiver. 

However, McNabb has a lot of negative points too.  To his detriment, he has a 58.1% career completion percentage.  He has only thrown over 3500 yards once.  He has only thrown over 20 touchdowns three times.  Furthermore, while other than TO, he has never played with a “game changing” wide receiver, he has played with a defense that finished in the top five in scoring defense 4 times, and was 7th in 2003.  Bulger, Brees, and Palmer have had the luxury exactly 0 times combined. 

When Donovan McNabb played well, he was given his just due.  His successful play led to many endorsements, not only for him, but his mother.  His most notable commercial was the Chunky Soup Commercials.  He also graced the cover of the 2006 John Madden Football game.  In 2004, he was widely considered the 3rd best QB in the game, behind Manning and Brady.  Had he maintained those numbers, he would still be receiving the same compliments he did in 2004.  However, while Brady and Manning have maintained their stats and team success, Donovan has not.  Trust me, if Peyton Manning plays 10 games the next 2 seasons and doesn’t break 20 touchdown passes or 3,500 yards, the cries for a replacement will be heard loud and clear. 

McNabb is now over 30.  While he has been a successful quarterback, he is by no means a Hall of Fame Quarterback.  He has not won a Super Bowl.  He has played 10 games or less 3 of the last 5 seasons, and finished the season on IR the last 2 seasons.  His mobility looks diminished; he is throwing the ball for a 54% completion percentage.  His team has scored one touchdown in over 20 offensive possessions this season.  I think it is a fair question for the media, fans, and the franchise to ask if his best days are behind him and if the Eagles would be better served to move in a different direction.   I think there are legitimate arguments on both sides of the issue.  If Donovan McNabb were white, we would be having the exact same conversation. 

Donovan needs to stop worrying about how people view his legacy, and whether that view is just.  What is most important is how Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles view his current performance.  He needs to get his knee right and start winning some football games.  He needs to start playing like he did in 2004 and the beginning of last season.  This isn’t happening because the League, the Media, and the Fans want to see one less quarterback starting in the NFL.  This isn’t about diminishing what he did in 2004.  This is about whether Donovan McNabb has what it takes to be an effective quarterback in 2007. 

For his sake, he better figure it out fairly quickly.  If the Eagles miss the playoffs, he, like black and white quarterbacks that have been injured or unproductive for multiple years before him, will be looking for new employment in 2008.  Who knows, maybe he will replace Rex Grossman.  Then we can listen to Rex Grossman complain about the raw deal he received in Chicago.  Wouldn’t that be an ironic twist? 

Isn’t it nice that the preseason is done and the NFL season is about to kickoff???  I’m not going to go over each of the games this week, nor will I name star players and disappointments of the week.  Instead, I’m going to go list five things that I took away from the preseason.  Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a Newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you my final impressions of the preseason. 

Standings

 AFC East                          NFC East
1.NY Jets (3-1)                 1.Dallas (2-2)
2.Miami (2-2)                    2.Washington (2-2)
3.Buffalo (2-2)                  3.Philadelphia (1-3)
4. New England (2-2)     4.NY Giants (1-3) 

 AFC South                        NFC South
1.Tennessee (3-1)           1. Tampa Bay (3-1) 
2.Jacksonville (3-1)          2. Atlanta (3-1)
3. Houston (2-2)               3. New Orleans (3-2)
4. Indianapolis (1-3)        4. Carolina (1-3)

 AFC North                         NFC North
1.Pittsburgh (4-1)             1.Chicago (3-1) 
2.Cleveland (3-1)             2.Detroit (2-2)
3.Baltimore (1-3)              3.Green Bay (2-2)
4.Cincinnati (1-3)             4.Minnesota (2-2)

 AFC West                          NFC West
1.San Diego (3-1)              1. Seattle (3-1) 
2. Oakland (2-2)                 2. St Louis (2-2)
3. Denver (2-2)                   3. San Fran (1-3)
4. Kansas City (0-4)          4. Arizona (0-4)
 
Impression #1 – And with the first pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select…. I know Kansas City Chief fans will blast me by asking me if I noticed that Larry Johnson didn’t suit up for almost the entire preseason.  My response to that would be did Chief fans notice that LT didn’t suit up for the Chargers?  San Diego put up 95 points this preseason, despite not having LT in the lineup.  Kansas City scored exactly 32 points, or eight points per contest.  The offense didn’t have one good effort.  Furthermore, the Chiefs started out scoring only 12 points, then went to 10, then to 7, and finally to 3.  This means that as the starters saw more time, the Chiefs offense saw more futility.  The only other teams that were less than 50 points scored for the preseason were Carolina and St Louis. The Chiefs look lost at QB, lost at WR, and lost in general.  While I expect things to improve, Larry Johnson can’t touch the ball every play.  If Larry Johnson is forced to carry the ball more than the 416 times he was last season, he may be shut down by week 8.   Equal mentions to Arizona’s Defense, which was the only defense to give up triple digits for the preseason with 114 points allowed.  As lost as the Chiefs have looked on offense, the Cardinals have looked just as lost on defense.  That is saying something.  It would be hard to imagine this team competing for a division title unless they waive their entire defense, minus Wilson.  The other sub .500 teams look to be the result of resting starters, i.e. Baltimore, Indy, Cincy, and Carolina.  New York Giants look to have midseason chemistry clicking in the preseason, something that should please Giants fans to no end.  At least Eli and Tom are fighting with an ex-teammate, rather than a current one.  Still, the chemistry and psyche of this football team appear to be skating on very thin ice.  I could see a two or three game-losing streak derailing this team for the season. 

Impression #2 San Diego’s offense looks DANGEROUS – The scary thing about San Diego was the Arizona game, where they racked up 33 points and 503 yards without LT in the lineup.  Granted, it was Arizona, but still the effort did not go unnoticed.  Phillip Rivers looks very sharp this preseason and the offense should receive a small boost when the best offensive weapon in football enters the lineup.  While it would be hard to imagine LT replicating the effort of 2006, they Chargers look to be in for another very solid season. 

Impression #3 Denver’s Front 7 should be worried – Denver is concerning me because of their defense.  I thought the addition of Dre Bly would help the Denver secondary, which in turn would help the front 7.  I also thought the Florida rookies would give some much needed speed to the defensive line.  The front 7 might as well be the front 0.  The Broncos gave up 31 points to the Cowboys and 17 points to the lowly Browns.  There first string was getting run over.  The Broncos signed Simeon Rice, but how much he will be able to contribute is anyone’s guess.  When healthy, he is an elite pass rusher.  However, this is not the division to be soft against the run.  LT and LJ are going to have a field day if that unit does not learn to tackle.  While I am not jumping off the Bronco bandwagon, (I picked them to win the AFC West at 12-4), the quality of the Chargers preseason, combined with the question marks on the Broncos front 7 has left me concerned about Denver’s chances to capture this division. 

Impression #4 – Baltimore’s offense should be worried – Baltimore fans will tell me that I need to stop worrying about a veteran team struggling in preseason.  There is some truth to that.  My problem is not so much the 29 points they scored total in their last 3 games, which matched their debut against Philly.  My problem is the penalties.  The Giants and Ravens combined for 22 penalties on a Sunday night game.  The Ravens offense had 4 false starts in the first quarter of the Redskins game, which may have been caused by the hour delay due to bad weather.  They were better in the last game, as they only had 3 penalties for 18 yards.  The impression I got from Baltimore is that Al Davis had bought the team.  The other impression I got was that the Ravens were not seeing a lot of improvement in the yards per carry department, which was one of the main reasons why they ditched Jamal Lewis.  Baltimore showed me nothing this preseason to indicate that it won’t be the defense’s responsibility to make sure this team wins games. 

Impression #5 – The Green Bay Packers are slowly building a Championship Caliber Defense – Being a Packer fan, I was pleasantly surprised at the strides the defense made from last season.  Last season this young defense showed signs of dominance, but was plagued by youth and inconsistency, as well as a stagnant redzone offense that failed to give the defense much needed momentum.  While the Packers do not appear to have enough offensive weapons to compete for a Championship, particularly at the running back position, I predict the Packers will finish in the top 12 in both yards and points allowed.  The line put a lot of pressure on the opposing teams QBs.  It scored two defensive touchdowns in its game against the Seahawks.  In the 3rd game of the preseason, the starters played the entire first half and shutout the Jaguars.  They stopped one of the best ground games in the league on a 4th and 1.  They also stopped a 4th and 3.  The Titans were able to score 30 points, but most of the damage was the first string Titans offense moving the ball against the Packer backups.  Preseason is just that, Preseason.  This is still the Bear’s division.  The Packers defense will have to prove that they can translate that strong preseason into regular season production.  While the Packers defense is still not in the Chicago, Baltimore, New England, or San Diego class; they have made a lot of strides in the last few years.  They are young and should continue to improve.  For one of the first seasons in recent memory, the defense will probably carry this team.  That is very unusual for the Packers in the Brett Favre era.

I could continue on and on.  With 32 teams, there is so much to talk about.  The good news is that on Thursday the points will count, the intensity will show, and the NFL will be front and center of the sporting world.  While only one team will be happy come February, which ever team you are routing for, I wish you the best of luck in your 2007 season.   

After taking a couple weeks off for my vacation, I am back from my trip and ready to finish my division predictions.  This division along with the NFC West is probably the most wide-open division in the NFL.  The Steelers are a year removed from the Super Bowl title.  The Bengals are a year removed from the division title.  The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season. The Browns had one of the busiest drafts in the NFL.  There should be a lot of debate from some very passionate fans about how this division will turn out.   Here is how I see the AFC North playing out this season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths:  The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the most complete offenses in the NFL.  Carson Palmer had another brilliant season in 2006.  Despite coming back from a very serious ACL injury, Palmer threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdown passes.  He had only 13 picks.  The one negative is that his completion percentage dropped from 67.8 percent in 2005 to 62.3 percent in 2006.  Still, he is arguably the third best Quarterback in the game, behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  . Chad Johnson and TJ “Whose your Mama” form one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL.  The Bengals ranked 8th in both scoring offense and passing offense.    Rudy Johnson has been a durable back that has topped over 1300 yards and scored over 12 touchdowns in each of the last 3 seasons.  The Bengals are in the conversation for having the best QB, RB, and WR combos in the entire NFL.  The only troubling thing on offense last season was that the Bengals as a team ranked 26th in rushing offense.  Kenny Watson was their second leading rusher with just 158 yards.  Chris Perry was limited to just 6 games last season.  The Bengals attempted to upgrade the backup running back position by drafting Kenny Irons out of Auburn.  He should be able to give the Bengals more depth at the running back position this season.  On defense, the one strength the Bengals have had over the last two seasons has been forcing turnovers.  They had 44 takeaways in 2005 and another 31 in 2006.  The Chicago Bears were the only team to better that 75 takeaway total over the last 2 seasons.  If they can return to their 2005 form, they should be able to improve on their disappointing 2006 season.   

Weaknesses:  The Cincinnati Bengals were the most disappointing team in the NFL last season.  This was a team that entered the season with Super Bowl expectations.  They started off the season 3-0, lost 5 of 6 games, won 4 consecutive games, followed by losing their last 3 games, and falling out of playoff contention.  This team lacked consistency.  The biggest example of this was their defense.  In their 4 game winning streak from November 19 to December 10th, the Bengals allowed 8.25 points per game.  Then they allowed 27 points in their 3 game losing streak to end the season.  The main weakness is the same as it has been the last 3 seasons.  Despite having a top 10 ranked scoring offense, the Bengals have finished no better than 17th in scoring defense the last 3 seasons.  Last season they ranked 31st in total yards.  The Bengals don’t need to be as good as the Bears or the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball.  They need to get a lot of takeaways and keep the game competitive so that their high-powered offense can maintain balance.  Drafting Leon Hall should help their 31st ranked passing defense.  Jonathan Joseph looks to be a young player on the rise.  Getting Odell Thurman back should help their linebackers.  Justin Smith, Sam Adams, Dexter Jackson, and Deltha O’Neal are all proven veterans in this league.  The Bengals have the talent in place to be a good defense.  Marvin Lewis has an excellent defensive background.  The Bengals need the talent on paper to translate to production on the field. 

Prediction:   This is a very tough division to pick.  The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season.  The Steelers are 1 year removed from a Super Bowl Championship.  The Browns have been both busy in the draft and the free agency signing period.  I think any fan could make an argument for their team winning the division, other than the Cleveland Browns.  That said, I think the Bengals will win this division.   Last season derailed for two main reasons.  1) Injuries to the offensive line.  The offensive line was injured very early in the season.  That contributed as much as anything to their early season collapse.  The season ending collapse had a lot to do with the schedule.  They had to close the season against Indy and Denver on the road, and Pittsburgh at home.  That was a brutal end to the season.  The Bronco game they lost on a botched extra point.  The Steelers game was lost in overtime.  The only teams that blew them out last season were New England and Indy.  This team lacked consistency and discipline, evidenced by all of the off the field arrests.   It cost them in a lot of close games.  While the offseason has not been entirely quiet, it seems to be getting better.  However, losing Chris Henry for the first 8 games is a big loss.  Despite having only 36 receptions, he did score 9 touchdowns.  Antonio Chapman, Tab Perry, and Glenn Holt will have to step up in his absence.  The Bengals should have enough talent at the skill positions to survive his absence.  The key for the offense will be keeping the offensive line healthy and replacing Steinbach.  The beginning of the season is tough.  They draw Baltimore, at Seattle, and New England in three of the first four weeks of the season.  After that it is a mix of tough divisional games and some games that appear to be easier, such as Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, Tennessee, and Kansas City.  The big advantage they have over the Ravens is not drawing Indy and San Diego.  If the Bengals can get out of the gate early, their second half schedule appears to be a lot easier than Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  That should put them in position to win the AFC North title.      

Record:  10-6, AFC North Division Title, AFC #4 seed 

Baltimore Ravens

Strengths:  The strength of this team is the same as it has been since their 2000 Super Bowl title.  The Ravens have had one of the best defenses in the NFL over that span.  They have ranked outside of the top 10 in defensive yardage and scoring only once, which was in 2002.  They have ranked in the top 5 in scoring defense 3 times and yardage 5 times in that time span.  The secondary is loaded.  McAllister, Rolle, Landry, and Reed may be the NFL’s top secondary.  The Denver Broncos are the only other team in the discussion.  Suggs, Scott, and Lewis are fantastic linebackers.  Pryce, Gregg, and Ngata make up a very solid defensive line.  They lost only one starter one the defensive side of the ball, but he was a big one in Adalius Thomas.  Still the Ravens should have enough talent on their roster to be among the leagues best defensive units.  While the offense is not stellar, the Ravens do have some good parts.  Steve McNair is a steady veteran that manages the game well and has a knack for pulling out late game heroics.  Jonathan Ogden is always among the top tackles in football, Todd Heap is always among the leagues top tight ends, and Willis McGahee should offset the loss of Jamal Lewis. 

Weaknesses – The weakness of this team is the same as it has been since the 2000 Super Bowl title.  The Ravens have had one of the least potent offenses in the NFL over that span.  The last 3 seasons saw them finish outside of the top 20 in total yards.  The reason the Ravens were able to improve from 2005’s 6-10 mark to 13-3 last season was very simple.  The defense improved from number 10 in points allowed and number 4 in yardage to number one in both categories.  That combined with the arrival of Steve McNair allowed the offense to jump from 25th in scoring offense to 12th.  The concern with this team is that the offense still lacks explosiveness, and many of the key players on both sides of the ball are reaching the ends of their career. Odgen has 11 years of experience, McNair has 12 years, and Mason has 10 years of experience.  While Steve McNair was a welcome addition over Kyle Boller, McNair barely topped 3,000 yards passing, had only 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.  Not exactly explosive numbers.  Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason are very average receivers.  Mason had only 750 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Clayton had 939 yards and 5 scores.  The Ravens attempted to improve their offense by adding two guards, Grubbs and Yanda.  They also added wide receiver Yamon Figurs of Kansas State.  While many will point to the addition of Willis McGahee, Lewis had more attempts, yards, and touchdowns, while averaging only 0.2 yards less per carry.  I think the Ravens had to take this gamble.  Lewis was clearly on the decline and they needed a change.  However, while McGahee was hurt last season, he has not been able to put together anything close to his rookie season.     

Prediction: Baltimore has a couple of obstacles.  1) How does another year of age affect this veteran squad?  Ray Lewis and Steve McNair are very tough football players.  Both were able to play most of the snaps last season.  Both have had injury concerns in recent seasons.  Do these two stay healthy this season or does age catch up with them?  2) The schedule is brutal.  After their week 8 bye they draw at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, at San Diego, New England, and Indy.  Even for the best teams in the league, that could be a 1-5 stretch.  Then they travel to Miami and Seattle, before closing at home against Pittsburgh.  The key to the Ravens season is that they must start hot.  They can’t go into that bye at 4-3 and expect to catch fire against that schedule.  3) How are they going to generate more offense?  In 9 of their 2006 regular season wins, the Ravens allowed 14 points or less.  The Ravens scored over 30 points only 2 times.  To put that in perspective with the other top teams in the AFC, the Chargers did it 7 times, the Colts did that 6 times, and the Patriots did it 5 times.    While the Ravens defense was stellar, they lacked the offensive firepower to advance in the playoffs.  The only key addition I see on offense was the addition of Willis McGahee over Jamal Lewis.  That is probably a wash.  McGahee has failed to put together a season like he did in 2004.  I don’t see him putting up 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns.  If he can get 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, while averaging over 4 yards a carry, I think the Ravens would be ecstatic.  I think the Ravens defense is among the tops in the league and will keep them in most games and in the playoff race.  However, I think age to key players, a brutal second half schedule, and the lack of adding anything of significance to the passing game will prevent this team from repeating the success of last season. 

Record: 9-7, 2nd AFC North, No Playoffs

Pittsburgh Steelers

Strengths:   It’s hard to look at past trends with this team, because for the first time in 15 seasons, the Steelers have a new head coach.  Gone is Bill Cowher and in is Mike Tomlin.  The Steelers have a lot of good players coming back, especially on the offensive side of the football.  Hines Ward is as complete of a receiver as there is in the National Football League.  He is always around the 1,000-yard mark; he catches touchdowns, and blocks as well as any receiver in the National Football League.  Willie Parker had a breakout season, with 1,494 yards and 13 touchdowns.  Ben Roethlisberger was amazing his first two seasons, advancing to the AFC Championship and Super Bowl title, before coming back to earth last season.  While he threw for 3,500 yards, he threw only 18 touchdowns against 23 interceptions.  Big Ben gets a pass for last season, due to the motorcycle accident he had in the offseason and the appendectomy he had to start the season.  Everything went wrong for the Steelers to begin the season, and it showed with a 2-6 start.  They were able to salvage the season by ending it 6-2.  By that point, they had played themselves out of contention in a brutal AFC.  This season he needs to settle down and make the good decisions that allowed the Steelers to be successful their first two seasons in the NFL.  On defense, the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run.  James Farrior and Troy Polamalu are among the best players at their positions. 

Weaknesses:  The main weakness of the Steelers was their – 8-turnover differential, which was good for a tie at 27th in the league.  The Steelers have to get back to what made them a championship contending team in the Bill Cowher era.  They need to run the football, use Big Ben’s abilities to stretch the field, and take care of the football.  They need to play better defense.  The Steelers defense was a mixed bag last season.  While the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run, they fell to 20th against the pass.  It is hard to imagine that the Steelers are going to improve against the pass this season.  They released Joey Porter this offseason.  While he was getting older, he was the heart and soul of their pass rush.  Only the future will tell whether releasing him was the right move.  The Steelers attempted to replace him by drafting Lawrence Timmons in the first round.  The Steelers also bring back the same secondary they had in place last season.  Besides Troy Polamalu, the rest of the secondary has question marks.  Ike Taylor needs to justify his large contract extension last offseason.  Townsend and McFadden will also be back in the secondary.  While Tomlin was great at coaching the run defense, he ran the league worst pass defense in Minnesota.  It will be interesting to see how that translates to a very similar situation in Pittsburgh.

Prediction:  I think this team is heading in the wrong direction after just a year removed from the Super Bowl.  I think the Steelers would have been much better served to retain either Ken Whisenhunt or Russ Grimm.  Instead, they chose to hire a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin.  While he put together the league’s best run defense, the Vikings ranked 14th in points allowed and last against the pass.  They were 25th in sacks.  The team finished 6-10.  I think the Steelers would have been much better served to hire a proven assistant familiar with the organization, rather than hire a coordinator whose defense was stellar in some areas and dreadful in others.  This is another team that had best start fast.  Week 5 has a visit from Seattle, followed by a bye.  After the bye the Steelers are at Denver, at Cincinnati, and host Baltimore.  They play the Jets, Bengals, Patriots, Jaguars, Rams, and Ravens in the second half of the season.  It is conceivable the Steelers could end their season 3-5.  Therefore they have to beat Cleveland twice, Buffalo, and Arizona at the beginning of their schedule if they even want to think about contending for the playoffs.  While some of the pieces are in place from the Championship team a year ago, I think this team is clearly in a state of transition.  While I do not believe they will bottom out this season, I look for this team to struggle a bit this season.  The improvement in this team will be that they shouldn’t start out 2-6 and finish 6-2.  They will be more consistent.  The downside is that I don’t see that being reflected in their overall record. 
    
Record:  8-8, 3rd Place AFC North, No Playoffs

Cleveland Browns

Strengths:  The strength of this team is that they finally have a young nucleus that they can build around.  Brady Quinn appears to be about as much of a sure thing as a pro team could draft from the college ranks.  While it will take time for him to develop, he put up great college numbers and was tutored under a head coach who knows a thing or two about developing pro quarterbacks.  Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are young developing targets.  Joe Jurevicuious and Jamal Lewis provide a veteran presence to this young roster.  Joe Thomas also looks to be a very sure thing on the offensive line.  Signing Eric Steinbach from the Bengals provides a strong left side of the line.  While they probably overpaid for Eric Steinbach, he should help in both the running game and pass protection. 

Weaknesses:   When you are coming off a 4-12 season, the weaknesses are lengthy.  For starters, they had a –15-turnover differential, which was second to last in the league.  It would be hard to believe the Browns will improve on that this season.  Neither Frye nor Anderson appears to be a long-term answer at quarterback.  I would expect that either of them would continue to make mistakes.  If they go with Quinn out of the gate, he is a rookie.  Rookie quarterbacks throw a high amount of interceptions.  Their rushing offense was 31st in the league last season.  Adding Steinbach and Lewis should improve on that total.  However, Lewis has been averaging below 4 yards per carry.  It will be interesting to see if the once dominant runner can restart his career in Cleveland.  While the pass defense was promising, the rush defense was a dreadful 29th in the league.  The Browns have some nice pieces on defense.  McGinest and Washington are solid veterans.  Kamerion Wimberly had 11 sacks last season.  Sean Jones and Daven Holley each had 5 interceptions.  Eric Wright should be a solid addition to the secondary.  Again, there are a lot of nice parts on this team, but they need the time to develop and grow together.  The bad thing for Cleveland is that a bad season will not result in a high draft pick, as the Browns traded that pick to Dallas to acquire Brady Quinn.  Still that was the right move.  Brady Quinn is as good as any first round pick the Browns could acquire next season, and the Browns need to add a face to their franchise that the fan base can be excited about.

Prediction:  For the first time in a long time, I think Cleveland fans should be excited about their future.  Since making the playoffs in 2002, the Browns have not finished over 6-10.  They have failed to finish higher than 27th in scoring offense.  Thomas and Steinbach should be anchors on this offensive line.  Quinn should be a Pro Bowl Caliber Quarterback and the eventual face of the franchise.  Edwards and Winslow are two young targets who have had off the field issues but a world of potential.  Lewis is still young enough to be an effective runner.  The offense is headed in the right direction.  If the offense can start carrying its weight, that alone will help the defense.  It is hard to be an effective defense, when your offense is running three plays and punting the ball on a good series.  It is hard to be an effective defense when you finish 10th in the league in interceptions, yet finish second to last in turnover differential.  That is one reason the Browns have been so bad at stopping the run.  The offense never gets far enough ahead to force the other team to abandon the run.  The Browns won their 4 games last season by a combined 17 points.  They only scored above 30 points one time, and failed to crack 10 points on 5 occasions.  No defense is going to be effective under those circumstances.  The problem is that Romeo Crennel needs to win this year.  He has had a 6-10 and 4-12 season to start his coaching career.  Coaches traditionally get three years to turn a franchise around before getting a pink slip.  The Browns biggest problem is the division they play in.  If they played in the NFC North, and the Packers were in the AFC North, the Browns could perhaps contend for a playoff spot, while the Packers would be staring at last place.  The Browns have to play at New England, at NY Jets, and at St. Louis.  They play home games against Seattle and San Francisco.  That schedule to go along with six games against the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals seems to be too much for this young team to overcome.  They have some winnable games against Oakland, Miami, Buffalo, Houston, and Arizona.  Realistically the Browns are not going to improve much on their 2006 record.  The good news is that with a young nucleus in place, combined with the Ravens and Steelers appearing to be in decline, the Browns should be a contender in this division by 2009.  The sad thing is that Romeo Crennel probably won’t be around to enjoy the foundation he has helped build. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place AFC North, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the AFC North predictions.  I will try to post the AFC South sometime next week.