I present to you my fourth regular season letter of the 2008 season.  I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the opening weekend in the NFL. 

Standings

AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. Buffalo (4-0)                                                            1. New York Giants (3-0)

2. New England (2-1)                                                2. Washington (3-1)

3. NY Jets (2-2)                                                          3. Dallas (3-1)

4. Miami (1-2)                                                             4. Philadelphia (2-2)

 

AFC South                                                                  NFC South

1. Tennessee (4-0)                                                    1. Carolina (3-1)           

2. Jacksonville (2-2)                                                   2. Tampa Bay (3-1)

3. Indianapolis (1-2)                                                   3. New Orleans (2-2)

4. Houston (0-3)                                                          4. Atlanta (2-2)

 

AFC North                                                                    NFC North

1.Pittsburgh (3-1)                                                        1.Green Bay (2-2)           

2. Baltimore (2-1)                                                        2.Chicago (2-2)

3.Cleveland (1-3)                                                        3. Minnesota (1-3)

4.Cincinnati (0-4)                                                         4. Detroit (0-3)

 

 AFC West                                                                    NFC West

1. Denver (3-1)                                                            1. Arizona (2-2)           

2. San Diego (2-2)                                                      2. San Francisco (2-2)

3. Oakland (1-3)                                                          3. Seattle (1-2)

4. Kansas City (1-3)                                                   4. St Louis (0-4)

MVP of the Week:  When you’ve played as well and as long as Brett Favre has it becomes quite a challenge to do something you have never done before.  Brett Favre managed to do that by having his first 6-touchdown pass game of his career.  He was 24 for 34 with 289 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 pick.  At running back Larry Johnson had 28 carries for 198 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns as the Chiefs got their first win of the year.  At receiver it is hard not to go with Coles who had 8 catches for 105 yards and 3 first half touchdowns. Muhsin Muhammad had a great game too with 8 catches for 147 yards and 1 touchdown.  

Loser of the Week: Ryan Grant and Donald Driver were very disappointing in the Packers loss.  Driver had 1 catch for 8 yards.  Grant had 15 carries for 20 yards.  The Packers need to get more out of their skill players not named Jennings if they want to win tough games.  Kurt Warner is a surprising name to put on the list.  He was 40 for 57 with 472 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Those are usually numbers that make the MVP of the Week.  Problem is he had 3 fumbles lost and 3 interceptions.  That is very poor for a veteran and former MVP.  Finally, Marion Barber has to do better than 8 carries for 26 yards.  He needs more touches and he needs to be more productive with the touches he got.   Whenever Dallas gets away from running Barber, there offense suffers.  They need to learn lessons from the Giants playoff loss, not repeat them.    

Game of the Week: There were a lot of good games this week.  Washington and Dallas played a fantastic game.  Washington had a 20-17 lead in the 4th quarter.  They added a field goal with 10:48 left in the game.  On their next drive they proceeded to take a 6-minute plus drive for another field goal with 3:22.  That drive not only exhausted precious time, but also all of Dallas’s timeouts.  Dallas then scored a touchdown with 1:42 left in the game, but did not recover the onside kick.  Honorable mention to the Jacksonville and Houston contest, which was won by a Scobee field goal in overtime. Another Honorable mention to the Monday Night Game, which Pittsburgh won over Baltimore in OT.   

The Bay of Pigs:  It would have to be that Cleveland and Cincinnati game.  It improved in the 4th quarter to finish 20-12 with Cleveland winning the game.  However, Cleveland trailed 6-3 at the end of three quarters.  Part of the problem was Carson Palmer being injured.  That prevented Cincinnati from effectively passing the ball.  This is a tough group to justify.  These teams are still a long way from being competitive.   

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): The worse game time decision I saw was Andy Reid’s decision to run the ball 4 straight times at the Chicago defense at their goal line trailing 24-20.  You would think McNabb on play action or at least one pass would have made sense.  Instead they turned the ball over on downs, couldn’t stop the Bears to get the ball back with meaningful time, and cost themselves a better chance to win the game.  The Eagles are not a smash mouth power running team and the Bears are great at stopping that.  Why he didn’t even pass it once is beyond me.   

The second decision I would question had nothing to do with the games.  Why did Arizona choose to stay East?  It seemed like a solid decision at the time.  The Cardinals stayed on the East Coast to prevent having to travel from Washington to Arizona, back to Arizona, and back to New York.  Instead of looking like they prepared for the game they looked like they took a vacation.  They had 34 points scored on them in the 2nd quarter and trailed 34-0 at the half.  Looking back, you have to wonder if the decision to stay east was worth taking a team out of their normal preparation routine.  Based on this poor performance I would say it wasn’t.   

Injury Report: There were a couple scary injuries this week.  Boldin took a vicious hit from Eric Smith in the final minutes of the Jets & Cardinals game.  He appears to be fine and his status is up in the air for next week.   

Andre Frazier was carted off the field on the opening kickoff of the Monday Night Game.  The severity of his spine injury was not known at the time I typed my letter.   

Aaron Rodgers injured his shoulder against the Buccaneers.  It is a shoulder sprain and not a separated shoulder as initially feared.  His status is questionable for next week.   

The Texans lost starting safety C. C. Brown with a broken arm for the season.  That is a big blow to a secondary already playing without Robinson.   

Finally, the Steelers are losing running backs fast.  Parker is out already with a sprained knee. Rashard Mendenhall fractured his shoulder in the Monday Night game and will be placed on IR.

Overall Impressions of Week 1:

1) Brett Favre’s big day – What do you say about a guy who you think has done everything there is to do in the NFL, yet goes out and accomplishes a career first?  Favre had thrown for 5 touchdowns with Green Bay 3 times.  The most recent was a September 27, 1998 game at Carolina.  In fact, the last time he threw 4 touchdown passes was a Monday Night Game against Carolina in October of the 2005 season.  So to say that 6 touchdown passes was a surprise would be an understatement.   

Favre had a number of things going for him.  The Arizona defense was very unimpressive.  There were a lot of plays with Jet receivers wide open.  The Cardinals turned the ball over 7 times.  That will help the offense’s cause.  Finally, he was sharp and put some perfectly thrown balls in tough places.  Other than a terrible first quarter interception he was on the money.  When you combine the three you get 6- touchdown passes.   

It’s easy to get caught up in the moment with this.   Last year McNabb had 381 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 56-21 victory over Detroit.  Detroit finished the season as 31st ranked passing yard defense and touchdown passes allowed.  Philly never played a game like that again.  They scored over 30 points only two more times that year.  The Eagles finished the season with the 17th ranked scoring offense.  McNabb would have 15 touchdowns in his other 13 starts.   

Favre had the right attitude after the game.  He was happy about the win, excited about the accomplishment, but also realized it was only one game.  He said its too early to book playoff or Super Bowl tickets.  He’s been through enough battles to realize that it only gets harder.  That is why you want a guy like that on your team.  He never gets too high with the highs or too low with the lows.  He keeps good and bad games in perspective.  He will help keep this team grounded and working toward getting better on offense.  

Still, many people were beginning to question whether he could still play or whether he made the right decision to comeback.  What this performance does do is validate that he can still play quarterback in the NFL at a high level.   The Oak Grove High School quarterback will not have to worry about Favre coming back to Mississippi midseason to take his job back.   

Every time people start asking those questions is when Favre comes up with some of his best performances.  It was nice to see an athlete who has had such a difficult off-season have another performance for the ages.   

2) Washington’s Upset of Dallas – Washington is a team that has showed me a lot in the early part of the season.  They were probably the worst looking offense in the NFL after the first week of the season in which they scored 7 points on the Giants.  They have responded by scoring 26.3 points per game in their 3 game winning streak.   

Jason Campbell has been terrific.  He has 6 touchdowns, 0 picks, 878 yards passing, and a 102.2 QB rating.  For a young quarterback learning a new system that is quite an accomplishment.   Santana Moss has been reborn with 27 catches for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Portis is doing well in the running game.  He has 369 yards rushing, 4.3 yards per carry, and 3 rushing touchdowns.   

The Redskins are in a terribly tough spot.  The division is a combined 11-4, with three of the losses being division games.  3-1 would have them as the division favorite in the NFC North or West.  In the East they are a game out of last place. 8-8 or 9-7 could be good for last place in the NFC East this year.   

The schedule is about to take a turn for the better.  They play @ Philly, which is a tough game.  Then they host St Louis, Cleveland, and travel to Detroit.  They could easily be 6-2 at the half point of the season.   

They still have some tough games in the second half of the season.  They will play the division again.  They have Pittsburgh.  Winning at Dallas was a game that many didn’t expect them to get.  If they can beat Philly next week they will have gone 2-1 on the road in the division and be set up very well for the 2nd half of the season.   

3) Is the Gold Rush Back? – The phrase that pays for 49er fans is that the Gold Rush is Back.  At 2-2 the 49ers are tied for 1st place in the weak NFC West.  Do the 49er fans know something that we don’t know?   

I pegged the 49ers for 4-12 this year.  Seeing they have won 2 games already and have yet to play St Louis it seems apparent that they will surpass that.  JT O’Sullivan has played very well to start the year.  O’Sullivan has 68 completions in 111 attempts for 962 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 picks, and a 90.0 QB rating.  That is a surprise to me, even with Mike Martz there.  Those are numbers the 49ers haven’t seen since the Jeff Garcia days.  Frank Gore has also started strong with 369 yards rushing through his first 4 games.   

The problem with the 49ers has surprisingly been their defense.  Those were thought to be the strengths of the team.   The defense ranks 21st in points per game allowed.  They rank 25th in total yards allowed, 22nd in pass yards allowed, and 23rd in rushing yards allowed.   

That is what costs them their games against the Cardinals and Saints.  Those offenses were able to put points up on the board.   Seattle also scored 30 points in their 33-30 OT loss to the 49ers.  Seattle had no receivers that game.  San Fran’s only impressive game was against Detroit.  Join the club.  Everyone looks impressive against Detroit.  

The 49ers are no longer the push over squad they have been known for the last 5 years.  Their offense has been consistently among the worst in the NFL.  Credit a lot of that to Alex Smith not being lost in a new system every year.  O’Sullivan was chosen for this job in large part on his previous experience in Martz’s scheme.  Since O’Sullivan has become the starter the team is moving the ball well and the offense as a whole is starting to hold up its end of the bargain.  The 49ers have spent a lot of free agent dollars and draft picks on upgrading the defense.  If that can come around they will win more games.   

If they were in the NFC East they would clearly be the last place club.  In the NFC West things are up for grabs.  The Rams are a lost cause.  The Seahawks may rebound if they can get some healthy receivers.  The Cardinals looked sharp in their first two games before losing the next two games.   

We’ll start to learn a little bit more about the 49ers over the next 4 weeks.  3 of their 4 games are at home.   They host New England and Philly, travel to New York Giants, and head home to play Seattle.  If they are still 4-4 or 5-3 after those 4 games I’ll start to have a little more faith.  While the 49ers will probably do no better than .500, that could still keep them in the division hunt for much of the season.  

4) The horrific St Louis Rams – St Louis continues to struggle beyond belief.  This has to be the worst defense in the NFL.  The record for points allowed in a single NFL season is 533 points, which was surrendered by the 2-14 Baltimore Colts back in 1981.  The Rams are on pace to allow 588 points in 2008.  If you go back to last year they have allowed 38.4 points per game in their last 7 games.  I have watched a lot of bad defensive football.  The 2005 Rams and 2001 Colts are the most recent bad defenses that come to mind.   The Dolphins were awful the first 8 games of the 2007 season.  However, if the Rams keep this up their 2008 unit will take the cake.  

That is what is so puzzling about the Bulger benching.  He plays on a team that is allowing 38.4 points per game in its last 7 games.  Jackson had 159 yards rushing in his first 3 games.  The offensive line has given up 13 sacks through the first 4 games.  What do you expect him to do?  Granted, 52 for 89 with 519 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 picks, and a 73.2 QB rating does not scream keep my job.  But that team is not losing because of Marc Bulger.  Joe Montana, John Elway, or Dan Marino in their prime couldn’t win with this team. 

Plus, why bring in Trent Green?  He’s a 15-year veteran that is 38 years old.  He hasn’t won a game since 2006.  Are you building for the future?  Bulger is 31-years old.  If you aren’t going to bring in a young guy to groom for the future keep Bulger in and let him work through this mess.   The team has no future with Green other than as a back up.   

Obviously management had some of the same concerns. Linehan became the first coaching casualty on Monday.   He has an 11-25 record in 2 & ¼ seasons.  The team is getting progressively worse.  The Rams can’t score points, can’t stop other teams from scoring, and are poorly prepared.  It is debatable whether everyone is playing hard. 

He had clearly lost the team.  Defensive Coordinator Jim Haslett has been picked to turn this disaster around.  The offensive nucleus still has a few years left in it.  If the Rams can find someone that can bring talent into the organization and properly motivate and teach these guys the Rams could be competitive in a few years.  Right now all they are competing for is the first pick in the draft. 

5) Rodgers comes back to Earth – It’s funny how the message boards have shifted a little bit.  After the first 3 games the Packers had clearly made the better decision.  Rodgers had yet to throw a pick, Favre’s Jets were 1-2, and the Packers were in control of the weak NFC North.  Then Favre threw 6 touchdown passes and Rodgers suffered 3 picks and a shoulder injury.  Chicago wins to pull into a tie with the Pack at 2-2.  Suddenly, Ted Thompson is an ####.   

I am pulling for the Favre trade to work out for Favre and the Jets.  I though Packer management botched that and have addressed that on a number of occasions.  However, I’d be a hypocrite if I said that 2 games were too soon to tell, but 4 games the picture was clear.  It is very early.  Rodgers will play well again and Favre’s isn’t going to throw 6 touchdowns per week going forward.  

I’m not going to get into comparisons between the Jets and Packers.  They are irrelevant.  Here are 3 problems with Rodgers that I have seen early in the season.  

a) Way too many hits – Rodgers has taken 9 sacks, which is tied for 10th most in the NFL.  The problem is that Favre took only 15 sacks all of last year.  It’s not just the sacks he’s taking, but all the hits he’s taking.  I said that durability was going to be a major concern for him in the preseason and my fear has been realized 4 games into the season.  He has to do a better job of standing upright.

Not taking hits is a product of having a quick release, staying around the pocket, and familiarity with an offense.  While Rodgers is in his 3rd year in the system it is his first year playing in it.  If Rodgers can’t stop taking hits he will miss games later in the season.  The Packers can’t make the playoffs if he’s not in there.  Their backups have no meaningful NFL experience and are not ready for primetime.   

b) Too much short passing – Rodgers is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 9th in the NFL.  Many people would say this is an unfair criticism.  The problem is that in the all of the downfield passes are going to one player, Jennings.  The exception to that would be the Detroit game.  Again, everyone looks good against Detroit.   

The Packers are running the screens, slants, and dump plays. The only one getting any production is Jennings.  His 482 yards receiving accounts for 50.2 % of the Packers passing yards.  Driver is second on the team with 16 catches for 174 yards.  Jennings is averaging 19.3 yards per catch.   Everyone else is around 10-12 yards per catch.   

That is a deviation from last year.  Last year the Packers had 4 receivers at 575 yards or over and had 4 players over 12 yards per catch.  Most of the players were in the 12-15 yard per catch range.  No offense can consistently succeed relying on one weapon.  This offense has to get more than Jennings involved in the passing game, particularly downfield.  If they don’t they will continue to struggle.  

c) Horrible 3rd quarter adjustments – This is as much McCarthy’s fault as Rodgers.  They both have to adjust better to what the defense is doing coming out of the locker room.  Green Bay has scored 20 points in the 3rd quarter this year.  7 of those points were on a punt return.  Teams are seeing this short passing game and making adjustments at half time.  The Packers are running the same thing and their offense is bogging down.  

In fact, they haven’t been very good in the 4th quarter either.  Against Tampa Bay their only scoring was a Woodson touchdown.  Against Dallas they got 7 points on a QB sneak late in the game trailing 27-9.  Minnesota only allowed one offensive touchdown in the fourth quarter of that game.  That was generated on Grant’s only long run of the year.  Even against Detroit 14 of the 24 points 4th quarter points scored were defensive.   

What that tells me is that the Packers are trying to run the ball and short pass the ball every play and that they think teams can’t stop that even if they know its coming.  The reason teams couldn’t stop that last year was because teams were scared to death of Favre throwing a 50-yard strike and were giving the underneath stuff.  Rodgers doesn’t have that type of credibility.  

As teams learn the Packers aren’t going downfield to anyone but Jennings they are adjusting.  McCarthy has to do a better job of adjusting to the defenses and call plays to counteract.  If quarterbacking in the NFL were just throwing 3 yards slants there would be more people doing well.  You can’t win with that conservative of an offense.  Ask Herm Edwards how that works.   

The good news for the Packers is that there are only 4 games that have passed and as long as Rodger’s shoulder is okay they can continue to improve in these areas.   Four games are too early to pass judgment, but it is early enough to make some observations.  From what I have seen so far reports of the Packers being better off without Favre were a little premature to say the least. 

A Look Ahead: 

Street Cred’s 2008 record:  37-22

1) Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0):  The Seahawks really need this game.  Branch and Engram appear to be back in the mix after missing the first 3 games with injuries.  Burress is suspended for this game, which is a big blow for the Giants offense.  If the game were in Seattle I might pick the Seahawks to steal a game here.  I think the Seahawks are not very tough on the road and I like the Giants defense right now.  I think Jacobs does just enough, Manning makes just enough plays, and the defense makes just enough stops to get a tough victory at home.  Winner: New York Giants  

2) Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2): This is another tough game to pick, due to the quality of both teams and the Westbrook injury.  In the two games where Brian Westbrook was healthy the Eagles scored 31 and 37points.  Since got injured they have scored 15 and 20 points.  His ankle is still bothering him and it is unknown whether he will play against Washington.  Westbrook is a special player that does so many things both running and receiving.  If he were 100% I would like Philly.  With as good as Washington is playing right now and how inconsistent the Philly defense has played I am going to go with Washington.  I look for Portis to have another nice day and for Campbell to continue his hot start.  Winner: Washington   

3) Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1): This is one of the more interesting games of the week.  Tampa seems to find ways to hang in there and win games that they probably shouldn’t.  Denver is coming off a tough week in which they lost at Kansas City.  Denver has a great offense.  They are 2nd in points scored, 1st in yards gained, 1st in first downs gained, 2nd in passing yards, and 12th in rushing yards.  That’s a recipe for success.  The problem is that they don’t even have an average defense.  They are 31st in points allowed, yards allowed, and passing yards allowed.  They are 26th in rushing yards allowed.  The only defense that is worse is St Louis, which is 32nd in both points and yards allowed.  Cutler has thrown at least one pick in 3 straight games.  I think Tampa Bay has a recipe to win in Denver.  Graham is a physical back that can pound the Denver run defense, but they need to get better play out of Griese.  Griese has 6 picks in his last 2 games, has yet to complete 60% of his passes, and has a QB rating of 62.5.  I could go either way with this, so I went with the home team.  Denver always seems to play well at home.  While Graham will have a big day, I think Cutler makes more plays that Griese and the Broncos bounce back from a terrible performance in Kansas City.  Winner:  Denver  

4) Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2): Pittsburgh’s offense looks lost right now.  They have multiple running backs hurt right now.  Big Ben is taking a lot of sacks.  The defense is playing well, but they need to offense to step up to the plate.  The Steelers went 8 quarters between offensive touchdowns.  From Ward’s 2nd quarter touchdown against Cleveland to Holmes’s 3rd quarter touchdown against Baltimore; the Steelers have looked lost on offense.   Jacksonville hasn’t exactly blown the doors off the barn either, but they are getting more offensive production in the last few weeks.  I like the Jags to protect their home field and win a very physical game.  Winner: Jacksonville  

5) Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2): New Orleans runs into trouble when they can’t get balance in their play calling.  That is true for a lot of teams, but it has been a glaring issue for the Saints.  Against San Fran they passed 35 times and ran 32 times.  Against Tampa Bay they passed the ball 32 times and rushed the ball 27 times.  Those two games resulted in wins.  On the flip side Against Washington they passed 33 times and ran the ball 19.  Against Denver they passed 48 times to 25 rushes.  The problem in this game is going to be that Minnesota stops the run so well that New Orleans is going to have to stay committed to running the ball like Fisher, Fox, and McCarthy did, even when it isn’t working.  I don’t think Sean Payton is patient enough to do that.  The other concern is that the Saints have the 22nd ranked run defense.  That bodes well for Adrian Peterson.  Brees will be able to put up some passing yards in this game, but I like the Vikings to go on the road and win this game.  Winner: Minnesota  

and the rest… 

6) Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1): I know Kansas City won their first game, but Carolina can actually stop the run and play defense.  Denver can’t.  I like the Panthers to prevail in this game and Kansas City’s offense to comeback to earth.  Winner:  Carolina  

7) Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3):  Detroit has to show me something before I pick them to win.  I see Kitna throwing some picks, the Bears gaining some yards, and the Lions losing another game.  Winner: Chicago  

8) Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2): It’s hard to pick this game when I don’t know if Rodgers is going to start.  The Pack can’t stop the run right now and Turner is off to a good start.  He leads the NFL in rushing yards.  If Rodgers can’t go the Falcons won’t have to worry about falling behind and can establish the run.  If Rodgers plays I think he makes enough plays to win the game.  If he doesn’t play the Pack will probably lose.  I say he toughs it out and makes the start.  I’m taking Green Bay, but I think it will be closer than people think.  Winner:  Green Bay  

9) San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2): Unless Ronnie Brown scores 5 more touchdowns I don’t see the Dolphins winning this game.  They will play competitive, but San Diego wins going away.  LT is heating up and should have a nice day.  Winner:  San Diego  

10) Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1):  Baltimore is exceeding expectations.  The fact they took the Steelers to OT surprised me.  That said Tennessee is playing great football and Baltimore isn’t going to score a lot of points in this game either.  Winner: Tennessee  

11) Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3):  Houston has been a major disappointment to start the season.  I wasn’t thinking playoffs, but I expected them to show better.  Jacksonville was their first good game.   I like the Colts to get back to .500 this week.  The bye came at a great time for Indy with all their early season injuries.  Winner: Indianapolis  

12) Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2):  I think Arizona’s NY disaster was a blip.  They aren’t going to play that bad all year.  They aren’t going to turn the ball over 7 times.  They picked the wrong week to get sloppy with the ball against an offense that had a lot of prove.  Buffalo has been good early, but their opponents have a combined record of 4-10.  Oakland and St Louis are a mess, Seattle was really injured, and Jacksonville was a good win.  The line is even right now, and I would expect Buffalo to be favored by game time.  I think Arizona rebounds from that loss and upsets Buffalo.  Buffalo is playing on the road for a second straight week, which is a tough proposition in the NFL.  Winner: Arizona  

13) New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2) – You give the Hood 2 weeks to prepare and he usually comes through.  New England is 6-2 under Darth Hood coming off a bye.  The average score has been 26.9 to 11.9.  The only years the Patriots lost were 2002 and 2000.  Those happen to be the only two years the Patriots missed the playoffs.  I like the Patriots to bounce back in this game.  They’ve had 2 weeks to think about that Miami stomp down and San Fran isn’t tearing up the defensive side of the ball.  New England won’t score 49 points like we might have predicted at the beginning of the year, but they’ll score enough to win.  Winner: New England  

14) Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1):  Palmer is still iffy and Dallas will be looking to take out the frustrations on somebody.  That lucky somebody is the 0-4 Bengals.  Dallas wins in a blowout.  Winner: Dallas  

Byes:  Cleveland, Oakland, New York Jets, and St. Louis

 

That’s all for this week.  Enjoy the opening week of football and I look forward to reading your comments this week.  

It’s back.  This is my second preseason letter.  I didn’t do one the opening week with just the Hall of Fame Game on the slate.  Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a Newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action. 

Standings

 AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. Buffalo (1-1)                                                            1.Washington (3-0)

2. Miami (1-1)                                                             2. NY Giants (1-1)

3. New York Jets (1-1)                                              3. Philadelphia (1-1)

4. New England (0-2)                                                4. Dallas (0-2)

 

AFC South                                                                        NFC South

1. Houston (2-0)                                                            1. Tampa Bay (2-0)           

2. Tennessee (2-0)                                                       2. Carolina (1-1)

3. Jacksonville (1-1)                                                     3. New Orleans (1-1)

4. Indianapolis (1-2)                                                     4. Atlanta (0-2)

 

AFC North                                                                        NFC North

1.Baltimore (1-1)                                                           1.Detroit (2-0)           

2.Cincinnati (1-1)                                                          2.Minnesota (1-1)

3.Pittsburgh (1-1)                                                          3.Chicago (0-2)

4.Cleveland (0-2)                                                          4.Green Bay (0-2)

 

AFC West                                                                        NFC West

1.Denver (1-1)                                                            1. Seattle (2-0)           

2. Kansas City (1-1)                                                   2. Arizona (1-1)

3. Oakland (1-1)                                                         3. San Fran (1-1)

4. San Diego (1-1)                                                     4. St Louis (1-1)

MVP of the Week:  Matt Schaub had a terrific performance this week.  He went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2 touchdown tosses while throwing 0 interceptions.  He posted a 154.9 QB rating.  Michael Turner was very productive for the Falcons.  While he carried the ball only 4 times he had 113 yards, including a 63-yard dash. Finally, Brandon Coutu had a very nice game going 5 for 5 on field goals and 2-2 on extra points.  Included in those field goals was a 48-yard and 46-yard kick.  But Domenik Hixon had the best performance of all.  He had 2 receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown in the first quarter as the NY Giants built a 23-3 first quarter lead.  That effort propelled them to a 37-34 victory. 

Loser of the Week:  I would go with the New England defense, the Cleveland Browns, and the Green Bay Packers.  The Patriots rebuilt their secondary and linebackers this off-season.  It looked woefully inadequate Sunday Night.  Brain Griese went 8-8 on the first drive on a 17-play drive that consumed 9:38 seconds.  The Patriots trailed 17-3 at the half and 27-3 after three quarters, before losing 27-10.  Granted Tom Brady didn’t play which limited the offense, but I was not impressed with the Patriots defense against what I consider a pretty average offense.  It is probably nothing to worry about at this stage, but that needs to get fixed up.  

Then there were the Browns.  This is a classic example of how preseason scores can be misleading.  If you looked at the final you see a 37-34 game.  It looks like both teams getting in good work in a high scoring game.  Hidden in that score is that the NY Giants first team destroyed the Browns first team to the tune of a 30-3 lead in the early part of the second quarter.  That was an embarrassing game by the first string and is something they will need to address next week when they take on the Detroit Lions. 

Green Bay I will discuss later in my Impressions of the Week.

Game of the Week: I’m going to go with another preseason overtime game.  The Seahawks and Bears played to a 26-26 tie, before the Hawks broke the tie with a field goal in overtime.  The Seahawks were down 10 points entering the 4th quarter before they ran off 17 points.  Kellen Davis tied the game with 2:50 left in the 4th quarter.  Brandon Coutu nailed a 36-yard field goal early in the overtime to give the Hawks the win.  Honorable mention to the Cleveland Browns and NY Giants. 

The Bay of Pigs:  Has to be that 7-6 gem the Chargers and the Rams put up in St Louis.  The Chargers kicked a pair of first quarter field goals and the Rams scored the lone touchdown in the third quarter.  

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  Still waiting for the regular season on this. 

Hospital Visit:  Chad Johnson suffered a sprained shoulder.  He has already been ruled out for next week’s game and Marvin Lewis said he could be questionable for the season opener. 

Tavaris Jackson hurt his knee in the Viking’s win.  The Vikings quarterback strained his MCL.  He is expected to miss next week, but should be okay for the season opener. 

Tom Brady didn’t even travel to Tampa Bay, because of an undisclosed injury.  It is believed that he has a sore foot.  It is on the same foot that bothered him in the Super Bowl, but a different injury.  It is uncertain whether he will play in the rest of the preseason.

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) The New York Bretts – Brett Favre had about as good of a debut as one could hope for.  He went 5 for 6 for for 48 yards and 1 touchdown pass in 2 drives.   It was arguably his best preseason game since 2000 as he posted a 139.6 QB rating.  

No, he does not yet have complete command of the offense.  The Jets had about 40 plays for him to use in that game.  Two drives aren’t enough to tell if he is ready to run the offense for 60 minutes.  He needs to show he understands the offense enough to run a 2-minute no huddle offense and that his stamina is good enough to play well deep into the 4th quarter.  I expect those things to come, but you can’t learn about that in 6 pass attempts and 2 series.

However, there were two things that were clear, 1) The team and the New York Jets fan base have been electrified by this signing.  There was a very nice buzz in the air surrounding the game.  2) Favre still looks extremely sharp.  He had a 19-yard pass to Cotchery that was a beautiful touch pass down the field.  He also looked of the safety perfectly on the Keller touchdown.  About his only bad play was a sack he took on the first drive, which is still better than throwing a pick in that spot. 

It’s going to take several games for Favre to get on the same page with his teammates.  There are going to be times where it looks great and times where it doesn’t.  His first game keeps the optimism at a very high level and gives the Jets something to build on.  Excellent first start for Favre.

2) The Rams need Steven Jackson – The Rams need to get Steven Jackson’s contract figured out fast.  In 2 preseason games the Rams have looked horrific on offense.  They scored just 7 points in their 7-6 win against San Diego.  They lost 34-13 in their opener to Tennessee.

Couple things in the Rams defense.  Jackson would not have played 4 quarters in those games.  While they only had 76 yards against the Titans on the ground they did record 183 rushing yards against the Chargers.  This isn’t so much an opinion I have because the offense has struggled in preseason.  I feel they need him, because of what he has meant to their offense the last 2 regular seasons. 

Jackson got hurt in Week 3 last season.  He came back in Week 8.  The result was a 0-4 record in which the Rams scored 7 points against the Cowboys, 3 points against the Ravens, and 6 points against the Seahawks.  The only game the offense looked good in was the 34-31 loss to Arizona.

Steven Jackson is a beast.  In 2006 he recorded 2,334 yards from scrimmage, which ranks 5th in NFL history.  It was only 95 yards shy of Marshall Faulk’s 1999 NFL record.  He also scored 16 touchdowns that season.  Last year despite missing those 4 starts he still recorded 1,002 yards rushing and scored 5 touchdowns.  He scored a touchdown in 6 of the 9 games after he came back from injury.

This holdout is looking a lot like Larry Johnson last season.  It looks like it could drag into the eve of the regular season.  It will take him a couple games to warm up.  Holdouts of this nature can be a precursor to injuries. 

The Rams can’t afford that.  On paper they don’t appear particularly strong even with Jackson in the lineup.  While Holt and Bulger can move the ball through the air they won’t be nearly as effective if defenses don’t have Steven Jackson to contend with.  This offense needs a healthy Steven Jackson this season.  The Rams need to get him into camp ASAP to put him in the best possible position to do that.

3) Pack took a big step back – Lost in the Aaron Rodgers vs. Brett Favre story is that both players play with 50 other players.  The story out of this game has been that Aaron Rodgers took a step back.  Aaron Rodgers is not the only story on this team.  In terms of preseason losses this is about as bad as it gets and Rodgers was not the only concern. 

The Brown’s first team at least got thumped by the defending champions.  The Patriots lost to a playoff team without Brady.  Granted the Packers didn’t have some key players, mainly Grant and Jennings, but San Fran is a bad football team.  

The first problem is the offense did nothing to move the ball.  The Packers gained 46 yards of total offense in the first half.  Their two scoring drives for field goals featured a 4-play drive for -6 yards.  The other drive was 4 plays for 2 yards.  Rodgers was sacked 4 times.  He had several passes that were dropped, including a sure touchdown grab by Donald Lee.  The Packers managed only 101 yards rushing against a team that gave up 248 yards rushing to Oakland just a week ago.   They also lost 3 fumbles.

Then there was the defense.  The Packers allowed the 49er offense to go 15 plays for 87 yards and take off 9:15 of game clock in the second quarter.  They allowed O’Sullivan to go 8 for 17 for 154 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  The touchdown pass to Morgan was for 59 yards.

I’m not one to hit the panic button because of a bad preseason game.  Al Harris and Charles Woodson weren’t playing on that 87-yard drive.  Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings weren’t on the field.  Those are big factors.

Again, what I didn’t like is that I don’t think San Fran is a very good football team.  They ranked 32 in scoring, 32 in offensive yards, and 32nd in first downs in 2007.  They scored 6 points against the Raiders last week.  Their defense ranked 20th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed last year.  This is a defense that should be scored on.  It is not a team that should have beat the Packers 34-6. 

The Packers have a big test in front of them.  Not only Rodgers, but the entire team is going to receive more scrutiny because of the Favre situation than possibly any team in the history of the NFL.  They played okay in a 20-17 loss to Cincy.  Then they took a terrible step back to a mediocre football team.  They need to play a good game and establish a rhythm against Denver.  They need to get Jennings and Grant on the field to get reps with Rodgers.

Denver is historically as tough of a venue as any in the NFL.  It will be good to see how they handle that atmosphere.  It’s difficult to know what to take out of Saturday’s game, but hopefully for the Packers it was just a case of a flat preseason performance.

4) Houston Texans impressing in preseason – Houston and Detroit are probably the most impressive non-postseason team in this preseason.  Seeing Matt Millen isn’t running the Texans they get the advantage.  They played very well at the Super Dome on Saturday.  Schaub went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 picks.  Rookie Steve Slaton played well with 13 carries for 57 yards and a rushing touchdown.  The Texans won 31-27.  The game before that they beat Denver 19-16.  Schaub was 4 for 5 for 29 yards. 

The Texans had a good season last year.  Despite losing Schaub for 5 starts, Andre Johnson for 7 starts, and Ahman Green for 11 starts they managed to go 7-3 outside of the division and 8-8 overall.  They won 3 of their last 4 games.  It was their 1-5 record in the division that killed them and that lone win came against a resting Jaguars team on the final day of the season.

The Colts still should be strong and the Jaguars look to be improved from a year ago.  The Titans are always going to play people tough.  I would pick the Texans to make the playoffs out of the AFC North, West, and possibly the East.  The South is going to make for tough wins in the division again in 2008.  If the Texans are going to win Schaub and Johnson must stay healthy and if Green doesn’t stay healthy Steve Slaton or Chris Brown must emerge.   Green strained his groin on the first carry of the Bronco game and did not play against the Saints.  That is not a good sign for a guy that has missed 19 games since 2005. 

This is a young team that needs to continue to improve and they look to be doing just that.  While it will be tough to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC South the Texans are a team that I believe has a chance to compete for a final wild card spot with Buffalo, Denver, NY Jets, if they stay healthy this year.   So far they are doing the right things in preseason.

5) Chicago Bears are really struggling – I’m not sure what to expect out of the Bears in terms of wins and losses, but one thing that I expect is that this will be arguably the worst offense in the NFL this season. 

The first problem is a bad quarterback and worse quarterback.  The Bears are trying to flip a coin to decide which puts the team in the best position to not completely stink up the field.  Grossman has a 66.9 QB rating in two preseason games.  He played fairly well against Kansas City and stunk against Seattle.  Orton has a 76.4 rating and has yet to throw a touchdown pass or interception.  Neither has established himself as the front-runner.   Yet the Bears named Orton the starting quarterback for the season opener.  Hopefully he has shown more in practice than he did in the games. 

The offensive line was supposed to be in rebuilding mode behind the drafting of Chris Williams.  Fred Miller and Rueben Brown were both let go to help this line get younger.  Williams was an injury concern entering the draft, because of neck and back issues.  Chris Williams now has a herniated disc and could miss most of or all of the NFL season.  Even if he does comeback he will be way behind the curve and his rookie season is going to be a lost season at best.

Then there are the skill positions.  Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Rashied Davis, Devon Hester, and Mark Bradley are expected to be the Bears receivers this season.  Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson will get the majority of the carries.  That isn’t exactly a list of skill position players that keep defensive coordinators up late at night.  Hester is a terror on special teams, but the jury is still out when it comes to wide receiver.  2nd year tight end Greg Olson is probably their most scary skill position player.  

What that translates into is 3 points scored in the first half against the Chiefs in which the offense went 8 plays for 19 yards and 5 points against the Seahawks.   Seeing the offense doesn’t score a safety that is 3 more first half points for the offense.  That drive went 10 plays for 51 yards.

There are some teams where a problem can be identified at one position.  With the Jags last year it was wide receiver.  The Cowboys had secondary issues last season.  With the Bears the entire offense is a mess.  The skill position players can’t do anything because the offensive line can’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running game.  The quarterback can’t do anything, because the line doesn’t give him time, the receivers aren’t very solid, and the running game doesn’t set him up with manageable plays.  Even if the line could block better it isn’t going to look good with the players it is protecting.  It’s a vicious cycle. 

In 2005 and 2006 the only problem on this team was quarterback.  In 2005 the Bears were able to go 11-5 with an offense that ranked 26th in points scored and 29th in yards gained.  That defense finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed.  I think the Bears don’t have as good of a defensive unit as they did in 2005 and they have additional problems on the line and at running back.

I’m very interested to see how this offense does in 2008 and what that translates to in terms of their record.  Even though that division is in a state of flux with Detroit looking to get over the hump, Green Bay replacing a legend, and Minnesota emerging it is going to be tough for the Bears to compete in that division with their offensive woes.  

A Look Ahead:  While it may have lost some significance in recent years, the third week of the preseason is always the most important game of the preseason.   It’s when we usually see the starters play for an entire half.  The 2007 playoff teams were 9-3 in the 3rd week of the preseason last year.  The Cowboys lost to the Texans, the Giants lost to the Jets, and the Packers lost to the Jaguars.   Both the Jags and Packers made the playoffs.  Staying healthy is always the first goal of preseason.   In the case of Tom Brady the Patriots aren’t going to try to win the 3rd preseason game at the expense of their franchise.  Still with starters expected to go into the 3rd quarter I’m going to look at 5 key games, not so much in terms of who will win the game, but the matchups I’m looking for in these games.   

1) Philadelphia Eagles at New England:  These are the two teams I predicted to lose in the Conference Championship.  I don’t really care what New England’s offense looks like unless Tom Brady is going to miss time to start the season.  With the KGB type culture up in Foxboro who knows how bad that foot is right now.  My guess is Brady will be ready to play in the opener.  Tampa Bay abused New England’s defense on the opening drive.  I want to see New England’s rebuilt defense play with some pride.  I want to see how they handle a speedy back like Westbrook.  I don’t think Brady is going to play and that should allow the Eagles to win this game.  Winner:  Philadelphia 

2) Jacksonville at Tampa Bay – This is a matchup between two playoff teams from a year ago.  The Bucs were very impressive in their opening drive against the Patriots opening the game with a drive that lasted over 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown.  I want to see how Garcia looks in his first action of the preseason.  I want to see how the Bucs run defense stops one of the best ground attacks in the NFL.  For Jacksonville, I want to see how they put pressure on Garcia, a quarterback that doesn’t make many mistakes but did have 3 of his 4 interceptions in 2007 against Jacksonville.  I like how Tampa Bay is playing in the preseason and the Jags still won’t have their receivers.  I look for the Bucs in a close one.  Winner:  Tampa Bay

3) New York Giants at New York Jets:  The Giants defensive line looked very good against Cleveland.  They knocked Derek Anderson out of the game.  Here is what I’m looking for in this contest.  How does the rebuilt line of the NY Jets handle one of the premier defensive lines in the NFL?  How does Brett Favre look against the defense that kept his Packers out of the Super Bowl in 2007?  Can the Jets run the ball against the Giants to give #4 a chance with play action passing and relieve the pass rush?  Will Brett be forced into sacks and interceptions trying to dissect this defense on his own?  I don’t expect a lot in Brett’s second preseason game.  I look for him to play above average, but in order to beat the NY Giants first team he will have to be exceptional.  I look for the Giants to win the game.  Winner: NY Giants

4) Pittsburgh at Minnesota:  This one is very simple too.  I want to see how the Steelers ground game does against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  I want to see how Jared Allen does against a team that allowed a ton of sacks in 2007.  Finally, I want to see how Ward, Holmes, and Miller do against a secondary that gave up the most passing yards in the NFL a year ago.  On the Vikings offense I want to see how Peterson and Taylor do against a tough defense.  I want to see how the Vikings offense looks without Jackson who is questionable for the opener.  I like the Steelers to win this game, but by a fairly low score.  Winner: Pittsburgh

5) Seattle at San Diego:  I don’t expect Tomlinson to play too much, but I want to see how Phillip Rivers and the passing game handle the Seattle pass rush.  I want to see how the Seattle offense runs against a Chargers team that was inconsistent against the run last season.  I want to see how the Seahawks thin receiver core does in terms of getting open for Hasselbeck.  How many coverage sacks is he going to take?  It’s tough to say who will win this game, because of Tomlinson’s traditionally light workouts, but I think San Diego will win this contest behind their vicious defense.  Winner: San Diego

That’s all for this week.  Next weeks newsletter will be full of recaps from Week 3 of the preseason and will be light on the prediction side as teams rest most of their key players the final week of preseason.  I look forward to reading your comments.  

Now that training camps have officially kicked off I decided to come up with a list of the 12 burning questions on NFL fan’s minds entering training camp. With 32 teams I could not cover everyone. If you think I made a glaring admission please leave it in the comments and I will try to address it. Without further delay here are the 12 biggest questions around the NFL now that teams have reported for training camp.

12) Is Matt Leinart ready to emerge as the Arizona starter? - All indications are that he has looked good through the off-season and is ready to take control of that offense. However, the Cardinals also like Warner and have been having him take snaps with the first unit as well. He had his best season since leaving St Louis.

I think Leinart’s party lifestyle has gotten blown out of proportion. These guys are going to enjoy themselves. They aren’t robots that eat and digest football 24/7. They have families, endorsements, business ventures, and yes…hot tubs full of sexy young ladies.

Had this happened the Saturday night before the Seattle game I would have had a different take. Had he gone to Mexico with his entourage of hotness the week before his opening playoff game I would not have been impressed. It happened in the off-season and there is nothing wrong with Leinart enjoying his celebrity. The world of camera phones make it hard to keep that stuff private. When you combine that with his USC celebrity status you have the makings for that type of story.

This is the year he needs to break out. He has great receiving talent and a solid back in James. He has a good coaching staff. The line is not perfect and the defense will give up points, but the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, Steelers, and Browns in 2007. All three teams won 10 games. The time for excuses are over. I think he does have a good year, but I’m not certain. What I am certain of is that whether he breaks out or not will have nothing to do with the company he kept in his hot tub.

11) Will the NY Jets and Oakland Raiders spending spree pay off? - It might have paid off in the NFC. The problem is that the Jets finished 12 games off the Patriots in 2007. Even with the players they added they are only the second best team in that division. The Raiders finished 7 games off the Chargers. They too have a long way to go to close that gap.

At the end of the day it is still a quarterback’s league. The Jets have Pennington and Clemens and the Raiders are trying to figure out if Russell and McFadden can usher in a new era of excellence. While both teams added some good players and both teams overpaid for some talent they will be better in 2008. I just don’t think they’ll be good enough to compete with the slew of playoff teams in the AFC.

I look for the Jets to get to the .500 mark and for the Raiders to get to 6-7 wins. While that will be improvement, it won’t satisfy fan’s expectations given that the Jets and Raiders were throwing dollars at free agents this off-season like PacMan throws at strippers on a Monday night. Sorry Dallas fans. I couldn’t help myself.

10) Where does Shaun Alexander end up in 2008? - I don’t understand why he hasn’t ended up in Green Bay yet. Ted Thompson drafted him in Seattle. Thompson has cap room and wouldn't have to give up draft picks. Ryan Grant is holding out for a larger contract. The Packers have no proven rushers on their roster. It would seem like a no brainer to get this guy into camp, 1) to put pressure on Grant to sign, 2) To have an insurance policy if Grant gets hurt, is ineffective, or both, 3) To show your younger players how to play the running back position.

Alexander doesn’t have nearly enough in the tank to generate a season like he did when he won the MVP in 2005. What he does have is a wealth of experience and the ability to share the load with another runner. He could be a valuable player in a playoff game. I would expect that someone’s running back is going to get injured and that they will turn to Shaun Alexander at that point to save their season. It is amazing how quickly a guy can go from MVP to out of a job.

9) Are Cleveland and Minnesota playoff teams in 2008? - These were basically the two teams that just missed the playoffs in 2007. These teams are usually the most intriguing the following year. In 2006 Green Bay used its playoff miss to improve from 8-8 to 13-3. Denver and Cincinnati regressed from their near misses in 2006 to play even worse in 2007. It can go both ways.

Minnesota had a great off season adding Jared Allen to the defensive line. Bernard Berrian gives them a much better target at receiver. Jackson is developing. With the “retirement” of Brett Favre the division is in flux and I expect the Vikings to grab the NFC North. In the extremely unlikely event the Vikings could acquire Favre they could be a Super Bowl contender.

Cleveland added a lot of talent on the defensive line with Rogers and Williams. They also added Stallworth to the receiver mix. Their offensive core is still young and improving. This could be a very dangerous team in 2008. I am expecting 10 wins and the final playoff spot.

Also don’t forget New Orleans. They finished 7-9 after making the NFC Championship in 2006. They have added Shockey. Vilma, Ellis, McCray, and Ga y. If their defense can regain its 2006 form and the offense can mount more of a downfield threat the Saints will be in prime position to win the NFC South.

8) Who will be the super surprise team of 2008? - I think the team with the best chance to go from the top 10 of the draft to playoff contention would be the St Louis Rams. They have a lot of offensive talent. Bulger is a solid quarterback. Jackson is a threat both as a runner and pass catcher. Holt is still a number one target. The Rams had a lot of issues on defense and the offensive line last year. Pace needs to stay healthy and Chris Long needs to have a big year to help bring back the defense.

That said the Rams don’t play in the toughest of divisions and they draw the AFC East in 2008. I only have them finishing 6-10, but I would not be shocked if they were able to get to 8-8 or 9-7 and contend for either the division or the last wildcard spot. They need to stay healthy and they need defensive improvement, but the Rams have a lot more skill position players than the run of the mill 3-13 squad.

7) Will the San Diego Chargers be healthy to start the season? - How is Gate’s toe? How is LT’s knee? How is River’s knee? How much work will they see in preseason? No one doubts that the Chargers have the talent in place to make a run for Tampa. The concern is that they will be hampered by injuries from the get go.

Phillip Rivers has been throwing the ball at camp and appears to be throwing the ball with excellent velocity. The San Diego Union reported that he appeared to be thicker in the upper body. All indications seem to point to him being ready for the opener. LT also appears to be a go with his knee for training camp. That is important because Turner bolted for Atlanta. The biggest question marks appear to be with Gate’s toe and Jamal William’s knee.

Gates is a huge part of the Chargers pass game. While Chambers and Jackson are solid targets they are by no means superstar number one caliber players. Gates is the best tight end in football when healthy. His blend of speed, leaping ability, and size make him impossible to defend. If he is not able to go that will be a huge blow to the Chargers.

On defense Williams is a big part of the run defense. Without him at full strength the Chargers will be more susceptible to the run. In a division with Denver, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that would be a huge blow.

I expect the Chargers to go 12-4 this season and work through their injury issues. This is still a young team that should be able to overcome those issues. However, a few big injuries are enough to derail even the best squads and the Chargers are starting off the training camp season with some big concerns.

6) Can Pittsburgh survive the toughest schedule in the NFL? - I think they will, but that schedule is brutal. Pittsburgh is like the Baltimore Ravens of a year ago. The Ravens were coming off a 13-3 season, but people were very concerned about a Week 12-14 stretch where they played San Diego, New England, and Indy. Pittsburgh this season draws an even tougher slate. They play Indy, San Diego, New England, and Dallas in 4 out of 5 weeks from Week 10-14. Most people have those 4 teams somewhere in their top 5 or 6 rankings in the NFL.

I think the Steelers have a lot of things going for them that the Ravens didn’t in 2007. I think that Big Ben gives the Steelers the play at quarterback that a team needs to survive a stretch like that. McNair and Boller didn’t do that for the Ravens. I think the Steelers have more players on offense that can score points. I think the defense is in good shape. It also helps to have Cincinnati in the middle of that stretch. That is a team that the Steelers can regain offensive confidence against should they struggle to start that stretch.

The bottom line is that the Steelers still have a good team and I think people are getting a little too caught up in the schedule and in Cleveland’s off-season additions. This is still the Steelers’ division. That said it is imperative that Pittsburgh stay healthy and they don’t get off to a poor start and lose games early in the season that they should take care of. They need to beat the Ravens twice, the Bengals twice, and the Texans. They need to play well at home. They aren’t going to go 16-0 against that schedule, but they should be able to finish around 10-6 or 11-5. However, if things don’t go their way the schedule will do them no favors and could knock them on the ground fast. The Steelers have little to no margin for error.

5) Can the New York Giants repeat as Super Bowl champions? - They could, but I think it is very unlikely. Critics of the NY Giants are going to start with an Eli Manning bashing. I’m just going to look at it by the numbers. The New York Giants beat the Buccaneers soundly, 24-14. Then they beat the Cowboys by 3 points intercepting Romo in the end zone to close the game. They intercepted Favre in overtime to beat the Packers by 3 points. They won the Super Bowl by 3 points against New England. This is not a team that ran away with the playoffs. It is a team that got hot at the end of the season, played at a very high level both physically but mentally as well, and caught a lot of good breaks. To expect a team to win that many close games a second year in a row is not realistic.

The New York Giants had a lot of losses this off-season. Strahan is a Hall of Famer and the leader of this team. He is no longer there. Wilson, Mitchell, and Torbar left via free agency. Shockey was traded to the Saints. That is a lot of talent to lose. They drafted well, but those players will need time to develop.

Then there is Eli Manning. When all the dust settles he still has a 54.7 career completion percentage, has never thrown for more than 3,800 yards, has never thrown for more than 25 touchdowns, has never thrown for less than 15 interceptions in a season in which he started 16 games. He has a career 73.4 quarterback rating. I expect him to play his best season this year. I think the playoffs were no fluke and I think he turned the corner. 3,500 to 3,800 yards, 25 touchdowns, 15 picks and a rating in the mid to high 80’s is realistic. The NY Giants should make the playoffs as a wildcard.

Once there anything is possible. But I don’t see them having another run to the Super Bowl. It is very hard to repeat in the NFL and the Giants didn’t show me enough in the playoffs last year or the off-season adding talent to make me think we are in the midst of an emerging dynasty. I think it is a very talented team that peaked at the right time and made the most of a tremendous opportunity. They deserve credit for their accomplishment, but also deserve to be viewed based on their talent going into this season not their play to end last season.

4) Will Dallas win it’s first playoff game since 1996? - If Dallas doesn’t win the NFC this season it isn’t ever going to happen. In 2006 Romo had only started a hand full of games. Last season under new coach Wade Phillips they raced out to a 12-1 record before finishing 1-3. TO was injured last in the season and Romo again played poorly in the playoffs.

This season they seem to have it all. TO, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Jason Witten give them all the skill position players they could ask for. Romo is entering his 3rd season as a starter. The offensive line is stacked with 3 Pro Bowl players. The defense added Zach Thomas, PacMan Jones, and Mike Jenkins. If the Cowboys can’t win a playoff game this year they have no excuses. If they can’t make it to the Super Bowl they will have had a disappointing season.

The problem the Cowboys have is that they have people that traditionally come up small in the playoffs and I’m not even talking about Romo. It is not fair to give Romo that tag after appearing in only two playoff games. I’m talking about TO and Phillips. For all of TO’s regular season success since TO became a star receiver in the 1998 season he is 2-6 in the playoffs. He had a fantastic game against the New York Giants when the 49ers overcame a 38-14 3rd quarter deficit. He had 9 receptions for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also played well in the Super Bowl with Philly. Other than that he has a bunch of games under 100 yards and with very low touchdown output. Part of that is because he tends to be hurt at the end of the season. That was the case in 2004, 2006, and 2007. He needs to stay healthy and he needs to bring his A game for the Cowboys to win.

Then there is Wade Phillips. He has a 61-42 record as a Head Coach, but is 0-4 in the playoffs. Part of that can be blamed on a Music City Miracle, but part of that debacle last year was his fault. That team looked fat and comfortable against New York. This year there are now excuses. They should have all the talent and motivation to get the job done. If the Cowboys show bad in the playoffs he isn’t going to have another crack at it. I look for the Cowboys to win that first playoff game and to be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

3) Will Peyton Manning be ready for the season opener? - It’s difficult to say at this point, because surgeries have so many variables that Manning will not be able to control. Infection is always the biggest worry. Given that he has never missed a game in his career and given that he has a history of healing fast and taking care of his body I would be shocked if he wasn’t ready to go.

The problem for Indy is they don’t get a cakewalk type schedule to open the season and allow Manning to get back in the flow. They open at home against Chicago, travel to Minnesota, and return home to face Jacksonville. If he starts off slow the schedule has the potential to put the Colts in an early season hole. That is something foreign to this team in recent years. Since 2000 the Colts are 20-4 in September. Their last September loss was a 27-24 September 09, 2004 at New England.

Peyton Manning isn’t going to lose chemistry with his receivers. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and Addai have a lot of experience in this offense. The offensive line has been together for a while. The question is more based on ability. If the knee is sore will Manning be able to make the throws with the same accuracy and velocity that he is accustomed too? How much mobility will the injury take away?

Peyton Manning is a prolific passer and I am not betting against him. I think he will be sharp and ready to go to start the season. I look for him to have another Peyton Manning like year.

2) Can New England, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss duplicate their 2007 success? - The schedule actually lines up better for them in 2008 than 2007. In 2007 the Patriots had 8 games against playoff teams from 2006 on the schedule. In 2008 the Patriots have just 4. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2008 based on last seasons record at .387. Furthermore Randy Moss and Tom Brady have had a year to play together. Things look good for the Patriots to have a great year.

I think the Patriots will have a great year. What they won’t have is a historic year like they did in 2007. The New England Patriots were starting to slowdown my Week 9 last year. From the Week 9 Colts game to the Super Bowl the Patriots averaged 29.5 points per game compared to the first 8 games where they averaged 41.4 points per game . Tom Brady had 30 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his first 8 games. He had 26 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his last 11 games of the season. Moss had 11 touchdowns in his first 8 games and 13 touchdowns in his last 11 games. Wes Welker slowed in the 2nd half of the season.

I’m not saying this team played bad the second half of the season. They won 10 of those last 11 games and the loss was by 3 points. What I am saying is they were immortal the first 8 games of 2007 and after that they were a team that won some big games, but played 7 games that were decided by 10 points or less. Where I expect the Patriots to pick up is where they left off the 2007 season not where they started the 2007 season. I think 4,000 to 4,200 yards and 30-35 touchdown passes are likely for Brady. I think Moss will have 80-90 catches for 1,300-1,400 yards and 12-15 touchdowns. I think the Patriots will not be able to run the table a second consecutive year based on the losses they had on defense and the fact that their offense won’t be so explosive. 13-3 is a realistic record. The schedule looks pretty easy to start. I think the Patriots will be primed to lose their Week 6 game at San Diego.

1) Where does Brett Favre play in 2008 and if not Green Bay how do the Packers fare without him? - I’m done trying to guess this. It keeps taking a lot of unpredictable turns. Based on what the Packers are communicating publicly it seems as if they are ready to go with Aaron Rodgers whether he plays the camp of all camps or has one to forget. Thompson and McCarthy seem to be 100% behind him. Whether people agree with that position doesn’t matter. Brett Favre is no longer the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.

That makes it hard to see Favre in a Packer uniform for the start of the season. I can’t imagine he would want to hold a clipboard or that the Packers would want him to do that. Thompson is already referring to the Packer players as #4’s former teammates. That means he will either return to retirement and possibly come out should Rodgers get injured. It might also be possible another quarterback gets injured that the Packers would be agreeable to sending him too. I think it is very possible he never plays again.

As far as how the Packers do in 2008. I picked an 8-8 season before Favre retired and the pressure on Rodgers to perform will be at an all-time high. If he starts slow the call for #4’s name will be heard throughout Lambeau Field and the media.

It is so hard to replace a legend even with the greatest of coaches. Mike Shanahan is 130-78 since he took over in Denver back in 1995. However, his career is a tale of two parts. From 1995 to 1998 he went 47-17, which is .734. He was 7-1in three playoff appearances and won back to back Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998. However, since 1998 he is only 83-61, which is .576. He is 1-4 in the playoffs and has not been back to a Super Bowl.

It hasn’t been as if the cupboard has been bare in Denver since 1998. He was able to replace Terrell Davis after the Super Bowl runs and the defense has had some good seasons. What Shanahan has sought and not been able to find is a replacement for John Elway. Bubby Brister, Chris Miller, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Steve Beuerlein, Danny Kanell, Jarious Jackson, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler have all tried. They have had mixed levels of success with Jake Plummer being the most successful and Jay Cutler showing the most promise. However without John Elway Mike Shanahan has been an above average coach.

That isn’t meant to diminish what Shanahan has accomplished. In my book he should be in the Hall of Fame. All the great coaches need great quarterback play to win. What we don’t know is if Mike McCarthy is a good head coach or if Favre made him look better than he was. Mike Sherman looked like a good head coach when he took over and that quickly faded even with Favre there through it all. We don’t know what Rodgers can do. 59 career passes is not enough to make a determination.

You could tell me the Packers could go 4-12 or 12-4 and I could really agree or disagree. There are too many unknowns on this team. Given the history or replacing legendary quarterbacks, first year quarterback struggles, the tougher first place schedule that features the AFC South, and a hold out by Ryan Grant who was their only rushing offense in 2007 I think 8-8 is a fair guess at this time. I don’t see how this team contends for the playoffs without Favre.

So what is your burning question for 2008? Do you think I answered these on the head or do you think I got it all wrong? Let me know your thoughts.

I plan to release my Playoff Predictions based off of my 8 division previews on Wednesday, August 6th. I haven’t done real well with responding to comments on my last couple articles due to time constraints on my part. I will try to do better on this article.

 You can view this article and other articles I've written at the Maniax's site.

This is my final installment of eight NFL division previews.  While there is still over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp.  However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft.   Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC West had a rough year in 2007.  Seattle won the division with a 10-6 record, but was 1-1 against playoff teams.  They won their wildcard game against Washington before being blown out by Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Arizona finished 8-8, but two disappointing losses to the 49ers kept them out of playoff contention.  The 49ers were a trendy pick to win the division after a free agency spending spree and finished 5-11.  Finally, the Rams who were also a trendy pick to win the division finished 3-13 and had the second overall pick in the draft.   Injuries and inconsistent play were largely responsible for a division that produced only one team with a winning record. 

The NFC West has been owned by the Seattle Seahawks, who have won the division for 4 consecutive seasons and made the playoffs for 5 consecutive seasons.  Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC West.

 

1)            Arizona Cardinals

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 404 (7th)

Points Allowed: 399 (27th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule:  119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Arizona Cardinals have one of the strongest passing offenses in the NFL.  Larry Fitzgerald had 100 catches for 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Anquan Boldin added 71 catches for 853 yards and 9 touchdowns, despite missing 5 starts with an injury.  Those two are the most explosive wide receiver combo in the NFC.  Fitzgerald will be 25 years old at the end of August and Boldin will be 28 years old in October.   If the Cardinals can resolve Boldin’s contract issues they should have a dominant receiving duo for years to come.  Bryant Johnson was a solid 3rd receiver and is only 27 years old.  Losing him to division rival San Francisco was a meaningful loss.  He has filled in well in he past when Boldin or Fitzgerald was hurt.  Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope are young tight ends that the Cardinals hope can emerge.  The Cardinals are loaded with young offensive weapons at WR and TE.

Kurt Warner enjoyed his best season since his years in St Louis.&nb