I'm going to be away
from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the
blogger world. I appreciate everyone that commented on the various
divisions. What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments
from various fans.
I'm going to leave an
open question for people to comment on.
This is a very simple
question. What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it
comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the
greatest concern?
Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look
forward to reading the comments when I get back.
This is my final installment of eight NFL division
previews. While there is still
over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could
be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing
out after the free agency period and the draft. Here are the links to the other divisions that have
already been completed.
The NFC West had a rough year in 2007. Seattle won the division with a 10-6
record, but was 1-1 against playoff teams. They won their wildcard game against Washington before being
blown out by Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Arizona finished 8-8, but two
disappointing losses to the 49ers kept them out of playoff contention. The 49ers were a trendy pick to win the
division after a free agency spending spree and finished 5-11. Finally, the Rams who were also a
trendy pick to win the division finished 3-13 and had the second overall pick
in the draft. Injuries and
inconsistent play were largely responsible for a division that produced only
one team with a winning record.
The NFC West has been owned by the Seattle Seahawks, who
have won the division for 4 consecutive seasons and made the playoffs for 5
consecutive seasons. Here is how I
see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC West.
1) Arizona
Cardinals
07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 404 (7th)
Points Allowed: 399 (27th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in
NFL)
Strengths: The Arizona Cardinals
have one of the strongest passing offenses in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald had 100 catches for
1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Anquan Boldin added 71 catches for 853 yards and 9 touchdowns, despite
missing 5 starts with an injury.
Those two are the most explosive wide receiver combo in the NFC. Fitzgerald will be 25 years old at the
end of August and Boldin will be 28 years old in October. If the Cardinals can resolve
Boldin’s contract issues they should have a dominant receiving duo for years to
come. Bryant Johnson was a solid 3rd
receiver and is only 27 years old.
Losing him to division rival San Francisco was a meaningful loss. He has filled in well in he past when
Boldin or Fitzgerald was hurt. Ben
Patrick and Leonard Pope are young tight ends that the Cardinals hope can
emerge. The Cardinals are loaded
with young offensive weapons at WR and TE.
Kurt Warner enjoyed his best season
since his years in St Louis. He
had 11 starts, 3,417 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 17 picks, and an 89.8 QB
rating. He is expected to be the
backup to 3rd year QB Matt Leinart who really struggled at the
beginning of the season before having his 2007 campaign cut short by a
collarbone injury. Leinart has
reportedly looked very strong this offseason, but Warner is still taking snaps
with the first team. If he
struggles the coaching staff will not hesitate to go with Warner.
Edge James rebounded slightly in
2007, thanks to a coaching staff that focused on the run slightly more than
Denny Green. His 1,222 rushing
yards were 7th in the NFL and he improved his yards per carry from
3.4 to 3.8, which is still not great.
That signing has not produced the results many thought it would. The Cardinals have no one else that ran
the ball and finished 29th in rushing yards gained.
The Cardinals front seven did a
nice job of stopping the run, finishing 9th in the NFL. They also finished 13th
in sacks with 36. Losing Calvin
Pace to the Jets was a significant loss, but the Jets drastically overpaid for
his services. Six years and 42
million dollars was too much cap space to part with. The Cardinals did not
replace him with anyone in free agency or the draft. 4th year player
Chike Okeafor is expected to take that spot.
Weaknesses: Ken Whisenhunt was an
assistant for the Steelers on teams that had very strong defenses. That is what he has been brought in to
fix. He needs to install toughness
on offense and rebuild a bad defense.
The Cardinals have had a good enough passing offense to make the
playoffs the last few years. The main problem on defense was stopping the
pass. They finished 28th
in pass yards allowed and 25th in touchdown passes allowed.
That was the main motivation for
adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round of the draft. The Cardinals could have used a back to
split carries with Edge, but the Cardinals could not pass on the opportunity to
add secondary help. He has big
play potential and is expected to be the nickel back as a rookie. Roderick Hood and Eric Green are
expected to remain the starters.
Adrian Wilson is a solid safety and Antrel Rolle will be the other
safety this year. The secondary
should be improved in 2008.
The other area the Cardinals wanted
to improve on was the pass rush.
While 36 sacks ranked 12th it was also 17 sacks less than the
league leading NY Giants. The
Cardinals were far from an elite pass rushing group last season. Darnell Dockett made the Pro Bowl with
his 9 sacks at defensive tackle spot.
The Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell and Kenny Iwebema to give them
more depth at defensive end and more of a pass rush.
Finally, the offensive line still
needs some work. James is still an
effective runner, but doesn’t get the same lanes he did in Indy. Brown and Gandy are good at tackle, but
the Cardinals have little depth behind those two. The interior of the offensive line is improved from the
Denny Green days, but still needs work.
Prediction: This is my surprise division winner pick in 2008. The Cardinals have been
a trendy wildcard pick the last couple seasons only to disappoint. I picked them to finish 4th
last season, which turned out to be an underestimate. I thought it would take a couple years to recover from the
Denny Green era. There are good
things going on in Arizona and few people realize the Cardinals were two bad
49er losses away from earning a wildcard.
The Cardinals beat the Steelers, Seahawks, and Browns last season. This was anything but a pushover.
I love the schedule to start the
season. 1) @ San Fran, 2) Miami,
3) Washington, 4) New York Jets, and 5) Buffalo gives them an excellent chance
to start 4-1. They need to start
hot because they close the season with 15) Minnesota, 16) @ New England, and
17) Seattle. That isn’t going to
be an easy stretch to make up ground.
Arizona had a very nice draft and
would be a bigger favorite to me if they had their quarterback situation
figured out. Warner is a question
mark at this point in his career and Leinart needs to break out this year. If he has another year like he did last
year he is going to earn the bust label.
I expect him to rebound. I
think Arizona made a good hire in Whisenhunt and the Cardinals are on the way
up. I think Seattle’s window has
started to close. This is the year
I think the Cardinals finally put it together and win the NFC West behind a
potent offense and a favorable schedule.
2008 Strength of Schedule: 122-134
(.477) (19th in NFL)
Strengths: The strength of this team is their
defense. That is important,
because no other team has a defense with as much talent as the Seahawks in the
NFC West. The Seahawks recorded
the 4th most sacks in the NFL with 45. That was in large part to Patrick Kearny and his All Pro
14.5 sack season. The defensive
line did an excellent job of putting pressure on the quarterback.
What they need to improve on is
stopping the run. They ranked 12th
in rush yards allowed and 27th in rush touchdowns allowed. That was really the defense’s only
weakness in 2007. This is a very
fast front 7, which creates the pressure, but is a little on the light side to
stop the run. The Green Bay
Packers exposed the Seahawks for that weakness in the divisional round. Ryan Grant ran right through that
defense for the tune of 201 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Lofa Tatupu has emerged as one of
the best middle linebackers in the NFL.
He was an All Pro selection last season. Julian Peterson was selected to the Pro Bowl at the outside
linebacker spot. These two are
extremely fast and make plays all over the field.
In the secondary Marcus Trufant had
a Pro Bowl year with 7 picks. He
is emerging as one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks. Jennings, Russell, and Grant round out a very solid
secondary.
On offense, Matt Haselbeck has
established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He had 3,966 yards passing, 28 touchdowns,
12 picks, and a 91.4 rating without the benefit of getting much help from the
running game. He is now the
featured part of the Seahawks offense.
Alexander had only 716 rushing
yards and 4 touchdowns in 2007.
That seems incomprehensible when you consider he had 1,880 rushing yards
and 27 rushing touchdowns in 2005.
Alexander was released and while it will look strange not to have him as
the featured runner for the first time since his rookie season in 2000, the
Seahawks abandoned him in 2007 and were already featuring Hasselbeck and the
passing game. That will make that
transition easier.
Finally, you can’t talk about the
Seahawks offense without mentioning Walter Jones. He has been as solid of a tackle as the NFL has had over the
last decade. At 34 he is still
going strong. He anchors a line
that is still good, but not as dominant as 2005 when they went to the Super
Bowl.
Weaknesses: This is a team with a lot of question
marks on offense. That is a
surprising statement given Mike Holmgren’s reputation as an offensive
mastermind.
Let’s start with the wide
receivers. Deion Branch tore his
ACL in the playoff loss to the Packers on January 15, 2008. That really puts his status in jeopardy
to start the season. Bobby Engram
is 35 years old. He had a career
year with 94 catches and 1,147 yards.
He is unhappy and demanding a new deal. DJ Hackett left for Carolina. That leaves special team standout, but disappointing
receiver Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu to battle for playing time opposite
Engram. That is huge, because of
the Seahawks inability to run the ball last year. They used a lot of 4 WR sets to spread the ball out. Teams need a lot of WR depth to do
that. The Seahawks are not as deep
as last year and that is a concern.
The Seahawks have no tight end
production. The tight end is a big
component in the West Coast offense.
Marcus Pollard was released.
Will Heller is expected to be the starter. He has 32 catches for 228 yards and 7 touchdowns, not last
year but in 5 years and 58 career games.
John Carlson is a rookie 2nd round and will be expected to
contribute immediately.
Then there is the running
game. People need to stop acting
like Julius Jones is the savior of the running game. He rushed for 3.6 yards per carry behind one of the best
offensive lines in football with Dallas last year. There is a reason the Cowboys went with Barber and let Jones
walk. He should be a good fit in
this offense, but I can’t see him rushing for 1,200 plus yards and 10
touchdowns. He is not a featured
back. Morris, Duckett, and Jones
will split duties depending on the situation. I don’t look for any of them to emerge.
Then there is the offensive
line. Walter Jones is now 34 years
old. The Seahawks have never
really replaced Hutchinson since he left for Minnesota. Mike Wahle was a good pickup at guard,
but he hasn’t been the same since he left Green Bay. He was injured in 2006 and played on a bad offense in
2007. If he can return to his
Green Bay form it will help the Seahawks regain their running form of a few
years ago.
Finally, there is the special teams
factor. Josh Brown signed with St
Louis and was an extremely reliable kicker. The new kicker is no other than Olindo Mare, who was a
disaster in New Orleans. He was 10
for 17 on field goals and New Orleans plays in a lot of nice weather sites,
including their dome. How is he
going to respond kicking in the elements.
When you add those things all together I think the offense is going to
take a significant step back in 2008.
I think Mare could cost them a couple games that Brown would have
won.
Prediction: This is supposed to be Mike Holmgren’s
last season with the Seahawks before he calls it quits on what has been a
legendary career. He has coached
in 3 Super Bowls, winning it all in Super Bowl XXXI. He coached all time great Joe Montana and Hall of Famer
Steve Young as a coordinator in San Fran.
He developed one of the all time great quarterbacks in Brett Favre as
the Packer’s Head Coach. He has
gone to a Super Bowl in Seattle developing Hasselbeck to go along with
Alexander and a strong running game.
His coaching tree speaks for itself. The number of ex Holmgren assistants coaching around the NFL
is long and prominent. If he
actually decides to hang it up it will have been a fantastic career, one that
should see him inducted into Canton, Ohio.
It would seem logical to pick the
Hawks to win the division in his last year and ride out into the sunset. I just don’t like the Seahawks team
this season as much as in years past.
I think they have gotten a little bit older. I don’t think they have a lot of good answers at wide
receiver. I’m not a fan of their
running game. I’m not going to
pick an offense to do well, just because they have a head coach and quarterback
with solid reputations. There are
a lot of other things that go into having a good offense.
Still, the Seahawks are going to
score points. This is not one of
the 10 worst offenses in the NFL.
It isn’t even the worst offense in the division. However in order for the defense to get
those sacks and not give up a lot of rushing yards, Seattle needs their offense
to dominate the action. I’m not
sure they can do that in 2008 like they did last season.
The Seahawks have been the class of
this division since 2003. However,
there are moments when you look back and see the door slam shut on a teams
run. That’s what I think we saw in
that Green Bay game. The Seahawks
had a 14-0 lead in that game and proceed to get stomped. That game was disturbing on so many
levels. It wasn’t that they lost;
it was how they lost. They were
manhandled on both sides of the ball.
They have progressively gone in the wrong direction since 2005. A very weak schedule and bad division probably
saved them in 2007.
I think they have a pretty tough
stretch in the middle of the season.
They play 9) Philadelphia, 10) @ Miami, 11) Arizona, 12) Washington, 13)
@ Dallas, and 14) New England.
They also have games against 6) Green Bay and 7) @ Tampa Bay, which will
not be as good as last year, but still tough.
The Seahawks will still win their
share of games. They will still be
tough at home. I wouldn’t be
shocked if they were able to put together a division winner. The NFC West isn’t exactly the toughest
division right now. I just think
it is someone else’s time. The
Cardinals should be able to maneuver the middle of the season with greater ease
than the Seahawks and build a cushion heading into their tough stretch to close
the season. While the Cardinals
will not run away with the division, I predict they will sneak by the Seahawks,
who will still be tough, but not as tough as in years past.
Seattle Seahawks’ Record: 8-8 – NFC
West 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) St
Louis Rams
07 Record: 3-13
Points Scored: 263 (28th)
Points Allowed: 438 (31st)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 125-131
(.488) (17th in NFL)
Strengths: When you start the season 0-8, finish
with the 2nd worst scoring defense and the 5th worst
scoring offense there aren’t a lot of things to hang your hat on. However, the Rams were probably hit by
injuries worse than any team in the NFL.
They had massive casualties on the offensive line, including future Hall
of Fame tackle Orlando Pace, who was lost for the season in the opener. He missed 8 games in 2006 and it
remains to be seen if he can still stay healthy an entire season.
Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger
missed 4 starts each. Torry Holt
was not the same Torry Holt as a couple years ago due to his knee
condition. Doctors feel he will be
able to play still, but fear it will be a chronic problem. If those three guys aren’t healthy the
whole season the Rams can’t win.
Issac Bruce is no longer with the
team, having moved to San Francisco.
He was a great receiver for many years, but Holt has been the go to guy
in recent years. They still have
Bennett and they drafted Donnie Avery in the second round. Randy McMichael needs to regain his
Dolphin form from a few seasons ago.
Josh Brown was a nice
addition. He is a solid kicker
that is an upgrade over Wilkins and hurts a division rival at the same time.
The bottom line is that the 28th
ranking in scoring offense from last season is deceiving. When this offense is healthy it is
extremely dangerous. Bulger had
4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 8 picks in 2006. Steven Jackson had 2,334 rushing and receiving yards and
scored 16 touchdowns in 2006. Holt
had 1,188 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2006. He had almost identical numbers in 2007, but had 3 fewer
touchdowns catches. These are
three of the premier offensive players in the NFL. When they are healthy and at full strength they can put up
points in bunches. Given the state
of their defense that will be a must if they want to win in 2008.
Weaknesses: This defense has all kinds of
problems. They struggled to stop
the pass, rush the passer, and stop the run. Their only real strength on defense was playmaking. They ranked tied for 10th in
the NFL with interceptions with 18 interceptions. However, when you give up over 20 points in 12 of the 16
games there is going to be problems winning games. The defense was a joke in December giving up 33 points to
Green Bay, 41 to Pittsburgh, and 48 to Arizona. No defense was playing as bad as the Rams at the end of the
season.
That was the main reason for
selecting Chris Long with the second pick in the draft. Defenses are built from
the defensive line out and the Rams need to overhaul that unit. Adam Carriker can then move to
defensive tackle. With Leonard
Little, James Hall, and Chris Long rushing from the ends the Rams are hoping they
can put more pressure on the quarterback.
They also added Justin King in the 4th round to help in the
secondary. He was an up and down
corner at Penn State. He should be
a nickel and dime package guy as a rookie.
However, other than Long they
really haven’t made a lot of changes to a defense that was downright awful in
2007. I still see St Louis as one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.
The other area of concern was the
offensive line. John Greco was
drafted in the 3rd round to provide depth. They really didn’t add anyone other than him there
either. If they suffer injuries
like they did last year they will struggle to maximize their skill position
talent.
Finally, Trent Green was an
interesting signing. They went
from a bad backup in Gus Frerotte to a guy that a few years ago was among the
better QBs in the league. However,
they aren’t getting the guy that threw for over 4,500 yards in 2004. They are getting a guy that is a
concussion away from retirement.
If Bulger misses a lot of time the Rams do not stand a good chance to
compete in most games. I don’t
think Green can hold up for more than a game or two.
Prediction: This is a team that
looked to be headed in the right direction with Scott Linehan finishing 8-8 in
his first year. I thought they would
win the NFC West last season. This
defense has absolutely collapsed and the Rams are in need of a major overhaul.
I thought this team really struck
out in the draft. I like Chris
Long and think he will be a fantastic player. He may be the only player on this roster in three years from
now. Avery and King were real
reaches in my opinion.
The Rams will do better in 2008,
just because their skill position players should stay healthy and they have the
offense to score. That still
means 10 losses and another top 10 pick in 2008.
St Louis Rams’ Record: 6-10 – NFC West 3rd Place;
No Playoffs
4) San
Francisco 49ers
07 Record: 5-11
Points Scored: 219 (32nd)
Points Allowed: 364 (20th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 124-132
(.484) (18th in NFL)
Strengths: Patrick Willis had as good of a rookie
year as I can remember from a defensive rookie. He had 174 tackles, including back-to-back 18 tackle games
against Arizona and Carolina and a 20-tackle game against Tampa Bay. Rarely is a rookie able to come into
the NFL in his first year and put up those kinds of numbers. When you consider how little help he
had around him it was a very impressive start to what I expect will be a great
career.
The 49ers have some nice pieces on
defense. I already mentioned
Willis. He is a player the defense
can build around. Kentwan Balmer
was a nice first round pick that should give them help at defensive tackle. Manny Lawson is a young star in the
making that was limited to 2 games last season. If he can come back healthy that will help the defense. Nate Clements gives them a corner to
build the secondary around and Michael Lewis is a good safety. Walt Harris gives them a good
second corner.
The defense struggled to stop
people, because they got no help from the offense. Turnovers and a lack of yardage put the 49ers defense
against their backs in 2007. This
defense rarely played with a big lead.
While this defense will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens they need
a better offense to realize their full potential.
On offense, Frank Gore took a step
back in 2007 with injuries. He had
1,102 yards and 5 touchdowns. They
were hoping for the 1,695 and 8 touchdowns he gave them in 2006. With the passing game the 49ers have in
place they will need him to get back to his 2006 numbers if they want to win
more than 5 games in 2008. DeShaun
Foster was a very good signing that should give them good depth at the running
back position.
Mike Martz has been brought in to
fix the offense. Issac Bruce was a
good signing as he is familiar with the system and can help mentor the younger
guys. Vernon Davis has all the
tools to be an All-Pro Tight End.
It will be interesting to see how Martz utilizes his talent, given his
history of not using tight ends in his pass heavy offensive scheme.
Weaknesses: This was not the worst offense I ever
saw. The 2006 Oakland Raiders and
their 168 points scored take that honor.
49er fans will remind me their 2005 product may have been worse than
2007. But this offense was so bad
on so many levels. The offense scored
more than 20 points on just two occasions (21 against Tampa Bay and 37 against
Arizona). When you consider Tampa
played their backups most of that game you can understand why this team
struggled to win games in 2007.
Their offensive production was horrific.
In my opinion Alex Smith is a major
bust. Part of that is because he
plays in a new offensive system every year. Part of the reason is that he plays so bad that he helps the
offensive coordinator get fired every year. To label a guy a bust at 24 years old may seem premature to
some people. However, he is
entering his 4th year.
There gets to be a point where a guy is no longer a young player, but
rather just a bad player. He has a
career 63.5 QB rating in 30 career starts. He had 2 touchdown throws in 7 starts in 2007. The game appears to be played at a
speed that is too fast for him at a time when it should have already slowed
down. It will be interesting to
see if the 49ers go with Shaun Hill or if they give Alex Smith the entire
season to show if he has what it takes to play in this league.
The 49ers don’t have much in the
way of targets. Bruce is an
upgrade, but his best days are clearly behind him. Bryant Johnson has been a 3rd receiver the
majority of his career. It remains
to be seen if he can carry an offense. Battle and Lelie are not players that have proven they
can contribute on offense. This is
a very thin receiving core, which does not allow Martz to run the offense he
would like to run.
Prediction: There just aren’t a lot
of good things to say about this team right now. It amazes me that a team that was so successful in the 80s
and 90s has fallen on such hard times.
Even if Joe Montana and Steve Young seems like ages ago, Jeff Garcia and
TO does not. The 49ers went 22-10
in 2001 and 2002. They made the
playoffs both season. Since then
7-9 is the best they have done.
Mike Nolan is a good defensive
coordinator that just hasn’t been able to get an offense in place. Part of that is Alex Smith. That was the quarterback the 49ers drafted
in his rookie campaign. Whether it
is Nolan’s fault that Smith hasn’t developed or Smith’s fault that Nolan’s
offenses can’t score is an interesting debate. It is most likely a little of both. The 49ers have finished last in the NFL
in yards gained 2 out of his 3 years, so it couldn’t be much worse than it is
right now. This team has very
little offensive firepower.
I think Gore and the defense give
them a chance to win a few games.
I like the fact they play the AFC East and the Rams twice. That gives them a chance to be
competitive in some of their games.
The bottom line though is that you need offense to win in the NFL and
the 49ers just don’t have enough of it to compete week in and week out. Their defense is solid, but not like
the 2005 Bears where it can carry a nonexistent offense. I look for more of the same in
2008. I think the 49ers finish
4-12, end the Mike Nolan era, and look forward to their next rebuilding
project.
San Francisco 49ers’ Record: 4-12 – NFC West 4th Place;
No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
As I had promised earlier, I was going to release the 5
teams that received a kind deal from the NFL schedule maker and 5 teams that
were not treated as well. I wanted to wait until after the draft before I made my final call on that. There
are a couple things to keep in mind.
1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division. I know Cleveland has a tough schedule
as well. 14 of their 16 opponents
are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule.
What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules? I tried to pick teams from different divisions when breaking down the
schedule. 2) I tried to give
deference to stretches of tough or easy games over overall schedule. While one team may have a similar
strength of schedule, if those tough games are bunched into 6 weeks, I think
that makes for a tougher schedule.
Without further delay, here is my list:
5 Teams that Were Brutalized by the NFL Schedule Maker
1)
Pittsburgh Steelers – This is by far the most brutal schedule
in the NFL. The Steelers
face 8 different playoff teams from 2007.
They also face Cleveland twice, which won 10 games and finished a
tiebreaker out of the playoffs.
Here is their schedule from Week 5 to Week 14: 5) at Jacksonville, 6)
Bye, 7) at Cincinnati, 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11)
San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) at New England, 14) Dallas.
Thank god for the Bengals or there
would be no easy games. In
particular that stretch playing Indy, San Diego, at New England, and Dallas is
brutal. The Steelers opponents winning
percentage in 2008 was .598. That
is toughest in the NFL. Their only
opponents that had losing records in 2007 are Cincinnati (2) and Baltimore
(2). When you consider that most
people feel the Ravens had a very quality draft, they should be improved in
2008. The Steelers did well in the
draft and have a solid nucleus returning in 2008. However, they have no favors when it comes to the
schedule.
2)
Indianapolis – It is bad enough having to play in the AFC
South where both Jacksonville and Tennessee made the playoffs. They have the following stretch of
games: 7) at Green Bay, 8) at Tennessee, 9) New England, 10) at Pittsburgh, 11)
Houston, 12) at San Diego, 13) at Cleveland.
That is 5 playoff teams in 7
weeks. Cleveland was a 10 game
winner that was very busy in free agency.
There are 3 road games in 4 weeks with the only home game being against
New England. The winning
percentage of the Colts opponents in 2007 was .594, which is not that much
behind the Steelers. When you
consider the pass rushers Jacksonville added and the Colts not having a first
round pick, I believe the gap has closed between Indy and the rest of that
division. While the Colts are
still very talented, they will have more than their share of obstacles to
repeat in the AFC South.
3)
Green Bay Packers – When you look at the NFL schedule, you can
begin to see why Brett Favre didn’t think returning to the playoffs based on
the development of the team would be enough to ensure a playoff birth. Here is their schedule from Week 3
through 11. 3) Dallas, 4) at Tampa
Bay, 5) Atlanta, 6) at
Seattle, 7) Indianapolis, 8) Bye, 9) at Tennessee, 10) at Minnesota, 11)
Chicago, 12) at New Orleans.
That is a lot of tough games. 5 of those 9 teams are playoff
teams. Minnesota has added Jared
Allen and the Packers couldn’t beat the Bears last year when the Pack won 13
games. Two of the Pack’s 3 losses were to Chicago. New Orleans could return to their 2006 form this
season. The only victory that
would seem certain is the Atlanta game at home. The Packer’s opponents winning percentage in 2007 was
.531. The Packers aren’t going to
have much time to adjust to life without #4. They had best get out of the gate fast, because the schedule
will be unforgiving if they need to make up ground starting in Week 6.
4)
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are naturally going to have a
tough schedule seeing that they were one of 3 teams that made the playoffs in
their own division. Furthermore,
the Eagles were 8-8 and signed the biggest free agent in the offseason in
Samuel. Still, the Cowboys have a
brutal stretch in the middle of the season. 8) Tampa Bay, 9) at NY Giants, 11) at Washington, 12) San
Francisco, 13) Seattle, 14) at Pittsburgh, 15) NY Giants.
That would be 6 playoff opponents
in 7 weeks for the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys overall schedule had a winning percentage of .523 in 2007. The Cowboys had a 13-3 record in 2007
and potentially added 4 key pieces on draft weekend to go along with Zach
Thomas. They did what they needed
to do to keep pace. However, they
will not be able to have the lapses they had at the end of the season in 2007,
otherwise their schedule is strong enough to make them pay in 2008.
5)
Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks don’t have that 8 game stretch
where they play a bunch of playoff opponents. Playing in the NFC West helps in that regard. Still, the Seahawks opponents had a
.477 winning percentage in 2007.
Of note there are 2 three game stretches that could give the Hawks some
issues. 5) at NY Giants, 6) Green
Bay, 7) at
Tampa Bay & 12) Washington, 13) at
Dallas, 14) New England.
The Seahawks have some nice games
against Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo, St Louis (2), and San Francisco
(2). Arizona is probably their
most formidable opponent in the division.
It is imperative that they take care of those teams and not suffer any
lapses. This shouldn’t be like
2007 when they played 2 playoff teams the entire season and none in the last 10
weeks of the season. If the
Seahawks stumble where they shouldn’t, the schedule will be much less
forgiving.
5 Teams that Were Spared by the
NFL Schedule Maker
1)
New England Patriots – It must be pretty nice to be coming off
a 16-0 regular season and not only get the 7th pick in the draft,
but get the league’s easiest schedule at .387. Part of that is due to the 1-15 Dolphins and 4-12 NY Jets
residing in their division. Still,
here are there first 4 opponents:
1) Kansas City. 2) at NY Jets, 3) Miami, 4) Bye, 5) at San
Francisco.
The only time they play 2007
playoff opponents in back to back weeks are Pittsburgh and Seattle in Weeks 13
and 14. There are only 4 playoff opponents
out of 16 on their schedule. That
is the minimum a team that finished in 1st place can play the
following season. I’m sure the NY
Jets will be better and that there will be some surprises on their
schedule. However, considering the
season the Patriots had and the changes they are making on defense, they got a
very favorable schedule. It is
easy not only in terms of overall quality, but the lack of quality they play in
the first 5 weeks of the season while those new parts become acclimated to the
Patriot’s way.
2)
San Diego Chargers – Very similar situation to the
Patriots. They play in a bad
division and therefore only drew 4 playoff opponents out of a possible 16
opponents on their schedule. Their
first 5 opponents are 1) Carolina, 2) at Denver, 3) NY Jets, 4) at Oakland, 5)
at Miami.
The Chargers have a few tougher
obstacles that the Patriots. They
did draw Pittsburgh and Indy in back to back weeks for Week 11 and 12. New Orleans could rebound from their
dismal 2007 campaign. Overall, the
Chargers look like they are in pretty good shape with this schedule too. Playing in the AFC West is a blessing
in of itself. Combined with 3
games against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami gives the Chargers an easier road
than most.
3)
New Orleans Saints – I believe the schedule sets up nicely for
the Saints to have a bounce back season in 2008. Here is their schedule from Week 3 to 11. 3) at Denver, 4) San Francisco, 5)
Minnesota, 6) Oakland, 7) at Carolina, 8) San Diego, 9) Bye, 10) at Atlanta,
11) at Kansas City.
Consider that there is only one
playoff team from 2007 in that 7 game mix. The Saints schedule had a winning percentage of .449 in
2007. They play against the weak AFC
West. The NFC North is a relative
unknown in 2008. Who knows if
Minnesota will be able to win given their QB situation, if the Bears will
return to their 06 level, or if the Packers can survive without Favre?
Furthermore, the Saints divisional
leader (Tampa) won only 9 games in 2007 and has several issues of their
own. Tampa fans will remind you
that is because Tampa tanked the last couple games of the season. Still, most objective people will agree
the Bucs were the weakest divisional champion in 2007. If New Orleans has fixed their
defensive problems this offseason and can run the ball in 2008, the schedule
sets up nicely for them.
4)
Arizona Cardinals - I know, I know. People have been telling you that Arizona is the team to
watch in the NFC West since Denny Green took over. Every year they find a way to win 8 games or less. But, when you look at this schedule,
they should get off to a great start.
Here is what they are looking at:
1) at San Francisco, 2) Miami, 3) at Washington, 4) at NY Jets, 5)
Buffalo, 6) Dallas, 7) Bye, 8) at Carolina, 9) at St. Louis, 10) San Francisco.
That is exactly 2 playoff teams in
their first 9 games. The overall
schedule has a winning percentage of .465, so it is fairly friendly when
compared to other teams. They have
to make sure they aren’t depending on the end of the season to win games. They finish 15) Minnesota, 16) at New
England, 17) Seattle. However, if
the Cardinals can continue to progress in year 2 of the Ken Whisenhunt program
they will be in good shape to be competing either for the division or a wild
card spot come the end of the season.
5)
Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota has a schedule where their
opponents won .551 of their games in 2007. Many people will not have them on the easy column. However, I go further than just looking
at percentages. They get Green Bay
on the road in Week 1. That is
huge, seeing the Packers will be playing their first game without Brett
Favre. They are retiring Favre’s
number. Rodgers is going to be as
nervous as he ever will be. What
better time to play Green Bay on the road and potentially steal an early season
divisional win on the road?
Second, they will not be playing
any cold games. Here is their
schedule for November and December: 9) Houston, 10) Green Bay, 11) at Tampa
Bay, 12) at Jacksonville, 13) Chicago, 14) at Detroit, 15) at Arizona, 16)
Atlanta, 17) NY Giants. That is
huge for a team that traditionally does not play well in the elements.
Third, they don’t really have any
stretches where they play multiple impossible games. I really like them to do well from Week 13-16. That is when teams are making their
playoff push. Week 1 and 2 at
Green Bay and at home against Indy will be tough. They play Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and at Jacksonville in
Week 10-12. Green Bay and Tampa
Bay are two teams that many people will not pick to repeat in the playoffs this
season. If that is your worst
stretch of games, then things aren’t too bad.
While the numbers suggest that
Minnesota has a tough schedule, the retirement of Brett Favre is not factored
into that. Take out Green Bay’s
record and the Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of .513, which is
much more manageable. While the
Vikings didn’t get a gift from the NFL, it isn’t nearly as bad as you might
think. The Vikings set up well to
take an up for grab NFC North if they can survive the tough slate of AFC South
games.
There you have it. What did you think of your team’s
schedule for 2008? How do you
think I broke down the schedule?
Do you think I am disrespecting a certain team’s schedule or not giving
another team’s enough credit? Let
me know your thoughts.
The unveiling of the NFL schedule is the first point in the NFL off season where you can begin to look forward to next year. After the NFL Draft you can start to fully evaluate the schedule and the 2008 season in general.
While I have looked at the schedules and have some opinions as to which teams have the most difficult road, I am going to save those judgments for after the NFL draft. I still want to see how the NFL draft plays out before I render my final verdict.
What it isn’t too early to do is start looking at some of the marquee match ups in 2008. Based on the free agent signings and performances over the last couple seasons here are the 10 games that I circled on the NFL calendar as being more noteworthy than the rest. I did not rate divisional games, as we always look forward to those. These are the best of the Non-Divisional Match Ups.
Honorable Mention: New York Giants (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) - October 26, 2008: I didn't want leave the NFL Champion NY Giants off the list. However, they don' have that one game that I am looking forward to like the other 10 on my list that is out of division. The Browns and Seahawks are solid opponents. How they do against Minnesota this time around will be a good storyline. The only game I considered putting on the list was the Steelers Game. Seeing the Steelers occupy 4 other games on the list; I decided to make this game my Honorable Mention.
10) Chicago Bears (7-9) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)– September 07, 2008: A rematch of Super Bowl XLI. While the Bears failed to make the playoffs a year after making the Super Bowl, the Colts had another typical 12 plus win season in the Tony Dungy era. This game will mark the opening of Indianapolis’s new stadium. Brian Urlacher vs. Peyton Manning. If the Bears can return to their 2006 form in 2008 this has the making of an excellent opening game.
9) Washington Redskins (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-6)– November 23rd, 2008: This is a solid rematch of the NFL Wildcard Round. The Redskins have lost 2 consecutive playoff games in Seattle, 2005 and 2007. The 2007 playoff game was very intriguing. After Seattle raced out to a 13-0 lead, the Redskins scored 14 unanswered points to take the lead. Seattle went on to score the final 22 points of the game, including 2 defensive touchdowns to pull away 35-14. This is also the return of Seattle Offensive Coordinator Jim Zorn as Washington Head Coach. Seattle is always a difficult place to win, so if the Redskins are going to win they will have their work cut out for them.
8) San Diego Chargers (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) – November 16th, 2008: The Chargers and Steelers have had some memorable regular season games over the last couple seasons. The most memorable was the Monday Night Football game when the Steelers defeated the Chargers, 24-22, on a Jeff Reed 40-yard field goal in the final moments of the game. The teams mett again in 2006. The Chargers beat the Steelers 23-13 to drop the Steelers to 1-3 in The Chin’s final season. After taking the 2007 campaign off these two AFC powers go back at it in 2008 in what has the makings of a terrific game.
7) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at New England Patriots (16-0)– November 30th, 2008: A match up that has resulted in a couple AFC Championship Games this decade resumes in New England for the second straight season. The Steelers were embarrassed 34-13 in New England in 2007 in a game that many people thought could be the Patriots first loss of the 2007 season. The Steelers will get an opportunity to show if their defense can stop Brady, Moss, and company.
6) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) at Green Bay Packers (13-3)- September 21, 2008: A rematch of the NFC’s two best regular season teams in 2007. The two met in a highly publicized NFL Network Showdown as 10-1 heavyweights. Brett Favre did not come out of the gate strong and was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter. Rodgers stepped into the game down 27-10. He went 18 of 26 for 201 yards and one touchdown and brought the Packers back to down 27-24, before ultimately losing 37-27. This year Rodgers will be the starter and the Cowboys will be coming to Green Bay. This will be the first playoff team for the Packers in 2008 after they open up against division rivals Minnesota and at Detroit. It will be interesting to see how the Packers fare against a competitive team without long time quarterback Brett Favre.
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) - October 5th, 2008: A rematch of the best Wild Card Round game of the 2007 playoffs. The Jaguars became the first team in the history of the NFL to win two times in the same season in Pittsburgh. Both games were exciting to the end. The first game saw the Jaguars take a 22-7 lead into the 4th quarter. Roethlisberger threw two 4th quarter touchdowns and a two point conversion tied the game. Fred Taylor scored the go ahead touchdown on a 12-yard run to put the Jags ahead for good. In the playoff game, the Steelers again feel behind 28-10 after 3 quarters. They came alive in the 4th scoring 19 unanswered points to take a 29-28 lead. David Garrard had a 40 yard plus run on 4th down late in the game to set up the winning field goal. If this year’s rematch comes even close to those two games the NFL world is in for a treat.
4) New England Patriots (16-0) at San Diego Chargers (11-5) – October 12th, 2008: You could flip 3 and 4 around if you want. I think the Colts and Chargers games were more entertaining last season, and therefore put it at number 3. The Patriots have had the Chargers number. The Chargers lost a heartbreaking 2006 Divisional Round game 24-21 in Sand Diego. The Chargers had an 8 point 4th quarter lead, but could not hold on. Kaeding missed a 50 plus yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT. In 2007 the Patriots blew the Chargers off the field before they knew what happened. The Patriots led 24-0 at halftime and won 38-14. In the 2007 AFC Championship the Chargers kept the game competitive, but couldn’t break into the endzone. The Chargers 4 field goals came up short, 21-12. This is the game the Chargers hope they can finally break through.
3) Indianapolis Colts (13-3) at San Diego Chargers (11-5)– November 23, 2008: Another rematch of playoff teams that met in both the regular season and playoffs. The first regular season game saw the Chargers force 6 Peyton Manning interceptions and the Chargers race out to a 23-0 lead in San Diego. The Colts scored 21 straight points and still had a chance to win the game, but Adam Vinatieri missed a chip shot that sealed the Colt’s fate. In the Divisional Round rematch in Indy, the Colts lost 28-24, despite the fact that Rivers, LT, and Gates missed significant time in the second half with injuries. These two have played very entertaining games the last few seasons and nothing should be different in 2008.
2) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)- Dec. 7th, 2008: This is always a special game. The Steelers and Cowboys have met 3 times in the Super Bowl, with the Steelers winning in Super Bowls X & XIII. The Cowboys won Super Bowl XXX. Because they play in different conferences, the rivals meet only once every 4 years. That is why I have it rated higher than their regular season record and postseason record in 2007 would indicate. Big Ben and Romo are two young quarterbacks that are coming off 30 touchdown pass seasons. TO returning to Pennsylvania is an interesting storyline, even if it isn’t Philadelphia. The two teams should be fighting for playoff position in this December contest. It should be a very intriguing game between two teams that we don’t see play each other that much.
1) New England Patriots (16-0) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)– November 2nd, 2008: As long as Tom Brady is in a Patriot uniform and Peyton Manning is pitching products in his Colts gear this will continue to be the Main Event. Both quarterbacks are future first ballot Hall of Famers. Both play on the teams that have experienced the most success in the 2000 decade. There is mutual respect and dislike for one another on both sides. Last year’s game saw 9-0 Patriots square off against the 8-0 Colts. This year they meet in a Week 9 showdown as well. Every game these two play seems to come down to the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.
Those are the 10 games that stood out on the schedule to me when the schedule was released. As we all know it probably won't turn out that way. Few could have predicted the 10-1 Cowboys would meet the 10-1 Packers last year. What looks good in April can be pretty boring come October and November. Furthermore, I’m sure you could find a series of other games depending on your allegiance. Finally, my list doesn’t even include the intriguing divisional match ups. What that adds up to is another exciting year of NFL football.
My plan is to have a draft recap up after the April 26th and 27th NFL Draft. Shortly thereafter I will look at the big winners and losers of the NFL schedule. While I defiantly have some opinions on that, I want to hold off on that until I see if there are any other big trades or moves during the draft. My goal is to start doing my division by division previews beginning in May. This blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com is the place to keep up to date on all the NFL happenings.
What is the game you are most looking forward to in 2008? Do you think I identified the correct games or did I overlook something? I look forward to reading your comments.
And that is why they play the game. On Saturday New England was on the cusp of creating NFL history. On Monday they are the victim of one of the greatest upsets in NFL history. The New York Giants concluded their improbable Super Bowl run with a 17-14 victory. Here is my recap of the Super Bowl.
MVP of the Super Bowl: The voters got it right. Eli Manning led two 4th quarter touchdown scoring drives to win MVP honors. Honorable mention to the Front 4 of the NY Giants who kept putting pressure on Brady all day and disrupted their offensive flow. It would have been impossible to pick which lineman was more valuable. You could have gone a number of different ways as the NY Giants had many deserving candidates. Eli was as good of a choice as any as his poise in the 4th quarter saved the day. They are truly a team in every sense of the word.
LVP of the Super Bowl: Plenty of blame to go around. Laurence Maroney and his 14 carries for 36 yards was not what the Patriots were hoping for. Randy Moss and his 5 catches for 62 yards were good but not great. While Brady had 266 yards passing, no picks, and an 82.5 rating we have seen him play better. Samuels dropped a big pick. Other than Welker and Thomas no one had a really big day. But the LVP is definitely the offensive line. They didn’t open up holes for Maroney, Brady was sacked 5 times, and pressured countless other times. The result was that Brady was not able to go down the field and the Patriots couldn’t make the big offensive plays they needed for victory. Their 14 points was their worst offensive effort of the season and was caused by the pressure of the Giants.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I have to go with the Little Red Riding Hood’s decision to go for it on 4th and 13. I don’t mind aggressive play calls. However, I think that crossed the aggressive realm and bordered on the stupid. 1) Giving the team the ball at their 31 as opposed to their 38 was not going to change the complexion of that game, 2) It was 4th and 13 not 4th and 1. That is a very low percentage situation, 3) If he was that worried about field position have your kicker or QB pooch kick it to pin the Patriots back. My impression was that this was a Hall of Fame Coach that tried to get too cute and it might have cost him the game. While there were a lot of other big plays that happened in between that call and the final outcome of the game, that was a very bad decision and gave the Giants momentum. He should know better than that.
Hospital Visit: There were no serious injuries in the game.
Coaching Carousel: One consequence of the outcome of the Super Bowl game is that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is going to be pursued to take the Washington Head Coaching job. To the victors go the spoils and he improved his stock in the last 5 games more than any coordinator in the league. In Week 15 he would have generated very little interest. It will be interesting to see whether or not Daniel Snyder’s decision to hire the entire coaching staff before the Head Guy will play any role in Steve Spagnuolo’s decision.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) My congratulations to the Giants fans and condolences to the Patriots fans – First off, congratulations to the NY Giants. They are a very deserving champion. To beat the 13-3 Cowboys, 13-3 Packers, and 16-0 Patriots on the road or at a neutral site is an amazing story. Those 3 games were decided by 10 points and produced 3 of the best playoff games in recent years. I also offer my condolences to the Patriots fans. I remember in 1997 how devastated I was when the Packers lost to the Broncos in the Super Bowl. I felt robbed of a repeat. I was robbed of the chance to see #4 get his second ring. People would have talked about the 1996-97 Packers with the Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers, and Packers teams of the past that repeated. It would have been historically significant for the Packer franchise. Instead the 96 Packers are remembered as a great one year team and the 1997 team was almost great. That was a tough loss to ####. The 1997 Packers team was very good, but not undefeated good. I can’t imagine what it would feel like to be a Patriots player, coach, owner, or fan today. It has to be a very sick and empty feeling.
2) Was this the greatest Upset Ever? - I would say no. The 5 greatest upsets in all of sports in my opinion are 1) 1980 US Hockey team defeating Russia on the way to a Gold Medal, three Final Four games, 2) 1983 NC State defeating Houston in the Championship, 3) 1985 Villanova defeating Georgetown in the Championship, and 4) 1991 Duke defeating UNLV in the semi-finals, and 5) Buster Douglas defeating Mike Tyson. This just doesn’t top those in my book. Remember that Russia had destroyed the USA with the same squads earlier that year. NC State was going up against two future Hall of Famers and Nova was going up against Patrick Ewing and a dominant Georgetown squad. Neither winner had a great pro player. Vegas had beaten Duke by 30 points in the Championship Game just one year prior and Vegas was in the discussion for greatest college basketball team ever. Mike Tyson was the most feared Heavy Weight Fighter in the world when he lost to Douglas. He was capable of knocking anyone out seconds into the opening round. Those 5 underdogs were given no chance prior to that game. While the Patriots matched the dominance aspect of the other upset victims, I don’t believe the NY Giants were considered the type of underdog that was those other opponents. While they were an unlikely Super Bowl participant they had lost 38-35 to the Patriots just 5 weeks ago. That didn’t suggest this would be a blowout. While I thought the Patriots would win I was expecting a close game. Close games can go either way. I was not expecting a blowout like those other 5 events. In terms of Super Bowl upsets I think it ranks in the top five along with 1) 1968 Colts, 2)1969 Vikings, 3) 1990 Buffalo Bills, 4) 1997 Packers, and 5) 2001 Rams being the other victims on Super Bowl Sunday.
3) Was this the Greatest Super Bowl Ever? – This is annoying to me. Anytime a good Championship Game was played people want to race to call it the Best Ever. I think the greatest College Bowl Game ever has occurred in the last 5 consecutive years. Great and Greatest is thrown around too easily. I do not evaluate Super Bowls until at least 10 years after the fact. In my mind Super Bowls need the following things to be great, 1) It has to have been a competitive contest down to the wire, 2) It has to involve Hall of Famers on both sides of the football, and 3) it has to affect or shape the course of NFL history. In my mind the two greatest Super Bowls ever played were Super Bowl XIII between the Steelers and Cowboys and Super Bowl XXXII between the Packers and Broncos. Super Bowl XIII determined whether or not the Cowboys or Steelers would be the team of the 70s. There were Hall of Fame Coaches on Both sides. Hall of Fame QBs. Hall of Fame RBs. Steel Curtain vs. Doomsday Defense. 35-31 score. That game had it all. It is number one in my book. A very close second is Super Bowl XXXII as it determined a lot of things about the 1990s. While the Cowboys were the team of the decade the Broncos went on to claim back to back titles and prevent the Packers from doing so. Elway got his first Super Bowl win against another Hall of Fame QB in Brett Favre. The game snapped a long AFC losing streak in the Super Bowl and was the transition toward AFC supremacy in recent years. The 31-24 score was very competitive and the result was in doubt until the very end. While the XXXIV was an exciting finish, the Rams and Titans lacked a lot of those elements and is therefore lower on my list. Time has allowed that to play out. Unlike that game, this game has a better chance to join those super Super Bowls. It was competitive down to the very end. It altered the course of NFL history by ruining a perfect season for New England. If the Patriots fail to win another Super Bowl or the NY Giants go on to win another Super Bowl it is a pivotal point in NFL history as well. This might be the game that shifts the power back to the NFC. The game has the potential to join some of the other epic performances, but give it some time before jumping to conclusions. If it truly was an epic game history will reflect that even more in 10 years than it does the day after. No need to throw Greatest around the day after.
4) The effect on Legacies –
a) Brady – I think he is the least touched by this. I didn’t think winning this game would make him the best QB of all time. Therefore it would be unfair for me to say that losing it disqualifies him from that distinction. The damage is more in losing with an undefeated team than losing in the Super Bowl. Still he is only one player responsible. He isn’t Tiger Woods playing an individual game. This was about the good plays his team didn’t have time to make than the bad plays that cost him the game. However, this game showed a couple things to me. First, how many people want to still call me an #### for saying that Randy Moss was the MVP of this season? The Patriots were averaging 41.1 points per game in their first 10 games. That dropped to 27.1 points per game in their final 9 games. The difference was that the league caught on to Randy Moss. In the first 10 games he had 66 catches for 1052 yards and 16 touchdowns. The result was the Patriots were more explosive than anytime in the Brady area. In the last 9 games he had 39 catches for 539 yards and 8 touchdowns. Good numbers, but not like the first 10 games. In the playoffs he disappeared and the result was the scores got a lot closer and there was more pressure on the defense. Unlike other teams Brady and the other Patriots were still able to win almost all of their games with their best offensive skill player’s production being limited. However, unlike the first meeting the Patriots were not able to produce the points they needed to beat the Giants. Wes Welker is a good player, but he can’t do the things Randy Moss does. He is not a game changing receiver. I am taking the same approach to Brady’s game as I did with Favre 2 weeks ago. He picked a day to not have his best game on a day when he needed to play his best. Part of that was his line and part of that was on him. While he was able to give the Patriots the lead with a little over 2 minutes left in the game there were too many plays left on the field by an offense that was capable of so much more. Brady is still an all time great to me; he just reminded us that he is human. While he now has a Super Bowl defeat on his resume and lost a perfect season he is only 1 player on that roster and that blame does not fall solely on his shoulders. His legacy is still very secure and he could still recover from this to be the best QB in NFL history if he continues to have great regular and post season success going forward.
b) Bill Belichick – He takes a lot harder hit for this. This may prevent him from being the best NFL Coach of all time. While he is still a Hall of Fame caliber coach he was chasing after immortality. The thing I question is going for it on 4th and 13 from his 31. Don’t go for it on a long pass when your line has shown no ability to protect your quarterback to protect 8 yards of field position. That was a bad decision at a key moment by a guy that should have known better. I can’t see Halas, Landry, Lombardi, Noll, or Shula making that type of decision in that big of a spot. There is a difference in being aggressive and foolish. Lombardi went for a quarterback sneak on 3rd and goal with no timeouts from the 1 yard line in the Ice Bowl. He didn’t go for it on 4th and 13. I don’t hold The Hood solely responsible for the loss or that decision as the biggest factor, but I don’t think he put his team in the best possible situation to win that ball game. What differs from Brady in this situation is that he didn’t have 4 defensive linemen rushing at him when he made that decision. He made a bad decision and had an average game plan in his biggest moment. The game plan did not work and he is as responsible as anyone for that. Fair or not, this loss will be used against him when discussing the greatest NFL Head Coaches of all time.
c) The Patriots Dynasty – This takes the biggest hit of all. Every dynasty lost playoff games. The 60s Packers lost the NFL Championship 17-13 to the Eagles. The 1976 Steelers lost the AFC Title Game to the Raiders. The 1986 49ers lost to the NY Giants 49-3. The 1994 Cowboys lost to the San Fran 49ers 38-28. That isn’t the problem. The problem is that all of those dynasties won with their best team. The 1962 Packers closed their season with a title. The 1978 Steelers won it all. Same with the 1984 49ers, 1989 49ers, and 1993 Cowboys. While the previous Patriots teams were great, this one was special. The other 3 Patriot Champions won by a single field goal. This one set an NFL record for points. They had a great scoring differential. It had the looks of an all time dominant team capable of delivering a 55-10 blow like the 89 49ers. It didn’t deliver against a team that was not an All Time Great Team. Instead of being in the top 5 for Greatest Teams ever the 2007 Patriots are contending for the Greatest Single Season Team not to win a title. Furthermore, the Patriots weren’t exactly clicking on all cylinders in the playoffs like a 1985 Bears or 1989 49ers. Had they won this game they would have been in the discussion with those other dynasties but not had the signature wins the 85 Bears or 89 49ers had. By losing the Super Bowl they have nothing. That doesn’t mean their other 3 Super Bowls are meaningless. That dynasty is still secure. They are still above the 70s Cowboys, 80s Bears, 90s Packers and Broncos, or some of the other teams that had good runs but didn’t get the hardware these Patriots received. However in going up against the 60s Packers, 70s Steelers, 80s 49ers, or 90s Cowboys there is no margin for error. This loss prevents them from reaching that lofty status.
d) Eli Manning – I’m not sure what this does for his legacy, because legacies are hard to establish in year 4. On the one hand he is no longer a first round bust like he was 5 weeks ago. He was an intrigual part of a Super Bowl team that drafted him. On the other hand, the defensive line is going to be remembered for this dominating run as much as he is. While he put up solid number throughout the postseason they were not out of this world. The fact is that all Super Bowl QBs have help in winning it all. It is a team game. Manning took the most difficult step, which is to win a title. Now he needs to put together a solid regular season. As he starts to build those his legacy will only continue to grow. If he reverts back to 20 TDs and 17 interceptions it will not diminish what he achieved this postseason but will continue to hinder him from joining the elite QBs.
5) Mercury Morris needs to get a Life – Most of the 1972 Dolphins are pretty classy individuals. They should be proud that their achievement is still in tact. However, I am sick of listening to some of the members of the 1972 Dolphins, most of all Mr. Morris. First he was not a Hall of Famer or even the best player on his team. He is a 3 time Pro Bowler and 1 time All Pro. He had only one season of 1,000 yards rushing and two seasons with double digit touchdowns. He had 21 carries for 68 yards and 0 touchdowns combined in the Dolphins two Super Bowl wins. While he was a key contributor for the 72 Dolphins it would be the equivalent of John Taylor or Brent Jones talking trash about how great the 1989 49ers were in the playoffs. Know your role. Second, even though the Dolphins had the most successful regular season I don’t think many people consider them the single most dominant team for one year. They played a schedule that featured opponents with an under .400 winning percentage. They beat 2 teams with winning records in the regular season. They did not dominate the playoffs. Most people consider the 1962 Packers, 1978 Steelers, 1985 Bears, and 1989 49ers to be more dominant teams. While the 1972 Dolphins will always have a place in NFL history for their extraordinary single season achievement no matter what anyone does going forward; get a life. Let other people talk about your greatness don’t do it for us. If you are going to talk about it send out the Hall of Fame Head Coach or Larry Czonka, not Mercury Morris. Stop making up songs and acting like an unemployed stand up comic in a last ditch effort to become relevant after the fact. While he had a nice NFL career, Mercury Morris is becoming more famous for behaving like a spoiled child the last month than anything he did on the football field. It is unfortunate that he has turned into a bitter ex football player dying to stay in the spotlight.
A Look Ahead:
That’s all for this season. What a terrific season it was. Again, congratulations to the New York Football Giants on their Super Bowl title. I have enjoyed reading your comments through out the year. I will probably not be posting as regularly the next couple months, but keep checking back for free agency, draft, and other relevant NFL news. In a few months the predictions for 2008 will be in full gear and we can engage in the debate all over again.
What an incredible weekend of football. The Patriots moved to within one game of a perfect season. Meanwhile the Giants and Packers played only the 2nd OT Championship Game in the history of the NFC playoffs. It was an epic win by the Giants that will be played on NFL Classic Films for years to come. Here is my recap of the Championship Round:
Scores:New England (17-0) 21 San Diego (13-5) 12
NY Giants 23 (12-6) Green Bay (14-3) 20 OT
On Deck:
Super Bowl Sunday: NY Giants (13-6) vs. New England Patriots (18-0)
MVP of the Week: The MVP for the Patriots had to be Laurence Maroney. Tom Brady did not play his best game of the season. In fact he played his worst. He did have 2 big touchdown throws, but also had 3 interceptions and only 209 yards passing. Maroney had 25 carries for 122 yards and 1 touchdown and helped carry the Patriot offense. On the Giants it was the combination of Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress. Manning was 21 for 40 for 254 yards and Burress had 11 catches for 154 yards. Those two were instrumental in maintaining offensive balance and controlling the clock for 40:00.
Game of the Week: Hard to go against the second OT game in the NFC since 1970. That game had so many emotional highs and lows. The Giants had stopped the Packers in the 3rd quarter, but Sam Madison was hit with a personal foul penalty. That led to a Favre TD pass to Donald Lee, which gave the Packers a 17-13 lead. The Giants went right back down the field and scored another touchdown. Brett Favre threw the first of his two interceptions deep in Giants territory, but the ball was fumbled and recovered by Mark Tauscher. That led to a field goal that tied the game at 20-20. Tynes went on to miss two field goals from 43 yards and 36 yards, which would have sent the Giants to the Super Bowl. The Packers won the toss, but Brett Favre made a poor throw on his first throw in OT that resulted in a Webster pick and set up the Giants for the game winning 47 yard field goal, the first 40 yard plus field goal made by an opposing player in the postseason history of the Green Bay Packers. This game will probably go down as one of the greatest Championship Games ever played, especially if the Giants can do the unthinkable and beat the Patriots in two weeks.
Loser of the Weak: Again, I hate to label people as losers because they didn’t perform as well as they and their fans would hope in the Championship Game. I think all 4 teams should be very proud of the effort they put into the games considering the stakes and the elements. All 4 teams had tremendous seasons. On the AFC side, I would say the Chargers offense failed the Chargers in key moments of that game. They kicked 3 field goals from 26 yards or less. Those were points left on the field that they could have used later in the game. If you are going to beat the Patriots, you have to score touchdowns. On the NFC side Ryan Grant had a very disappointing effort. After rushing for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns last week he was held to 13 carries for 29 yards and 0 touchdowns. Greg Jennings had 1 catch for 14 yards. That was way off his season averages. Also Brett Favre made the key mistake in the OT and threw a very critical interception that set the Giants up for the game winning field goal.
The Bay of Pigs: Both games were played at a very high level and are not undeserving of such a title.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I think the coach that struggled the most with the Championship Experience was Mike McCarthy. The biggest complaint I had with Packers is that they only ran the ball to Ryan Grant 13 times. Similar to the Cowboys last week the Packers became very one dimensional in the second half. Getting away from the run eliminated their play action passing and short passing game. It’s hard to stay with something that is only gaining one yard, as it feels like a wasted play. Again, the problem is that the Giants were able to concentrate on the screens and the short passes, because there was no commitment to the running game. Hindsight is 20-20 and it is hard to argue with putting the game in the hands of your Hall of Fame QB. I think the Packers should have found a way to have better balance in the second half and part of their struggles was too many passing plays.
Hospital Visit: The biggest injury of the weekend was the one to LT. He was only able to carry the ball a couple times before leaving the game. Gates was also a non factor with his 2 catches for 17 yards. The Chargers could have used those playmakers when they settled for 3 field goals from 26 yards or less. Phillip Rivers will need knee surgery, but anticipates being ready for training camp. Otherwise the winners have two weeks to recover from the bitter cold.
Coaching Carousel: First, Tony Dungy announced that he was coming back to the Colts for 2008. John Harbaugh, the older brother of Jim Harbaugh was hired awa from the Eagles staff to be the headman of the Ravens. He is a surprising hire, but that isn’t a bad thing. I don’t think too many people predicted big things from Mike McCarthy when he was hired. That leaves the Atlanta and Washington positions still vacant.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) The Patriots show why they are the best team in the NFL – Here is why the Patriots are by far the best team in the NFL. Tom Brady played arguably his worst game of the season in the AFC Championship Game. He was 22 for 33 for 209 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He had a QB rating of 66.4 or almost half of his season total. Furthermore Randy Moss had 1 catch for 18 yards and 1 rush for 14 yards. Yet the Patriots were able to win the game. Maroney is able to top the 100-yard rushing mark. The Patriots defense holds the Chargers to 4 field goals, 3 of which were attempts of 26 yards or less. That is the difference between the Patriots and the rest of the teams in the NFL. I am not taking anything away from Tom Brady. He had arguably the best regular season in the history of the NFL for any position. He is a first Ballot Hall of Famer. He is in the conversation for best QB of all time. He made plays when the Patriots needed them. But the difference between the Patriots and the rest of the league is that when he plays a bad game the rest of the team can find ways to come to the rescue. Brett Favre did not have a bad game on Sunday. You could argue before the pick he played a better game than Brady. Both were very average considering their Hall of Fame status. But when #4 plays average, the Packers don’t have a very good shot of winning. When Favre plays well, Ryan Grant can have 201 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. But the key is that #4 is at his best. Grant hasn’t proven he can carry the offense when Favre is struggling. Maroney was able to do that with Brady struggling, which is amazing. The same can be said for Peyton Manning. Addai is a great running back, but he needs Manning to play well for him to play well. When Tom Brady doesn’t play well (which isn’t often) the Patriots are the best in the league at finding other ways to win in spite of that. One hundred yard rushers and an all-pro defense materialize to save the day. That is why the Patriots are in the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years. That is why they are going for the first undefeated season since 1972.
2) The Giants dominated the time of possession – The biggest thing the Giants did in that game was they controlled the time of possession. The Giants defense didn’t put up gaudy sack numbers or tackle numbers. What they did is they found a way to control the clock. The Giants had the ball 40:01 to 22:34. They did that by running the ball 39 times for 134 yards as opposed to the Packers 14 rushes for 28 yards. The Giants were 6-16 on 3rd down. They only lost one fumble and didn’t throw an interception. I take back all the bad things I said about Eli Manning. I have never seen someone play so bad the first 15 weeks of the season and suddenly materialize into a quality QB that can win big games in big spots. I never saw that coming and he deserves credit for that. Tiki Barber is looking pretty foolish right now, as are a lot of media people. Did the Giants play perfect? No. Sam Madison had a very costly personal foul penalty and the holding penalty that wiped out a Bradshaw touchdown was huge. What the Giants did do is use their running game and smart passing game to control field position and time of possession. The Giants were constantly playing from their 40 yard line and out and the Packers were near their own 20 and in the entire second half. The Packers two touchdowns came on a 90- yard pass and field position that was set up on a solid return and the Madison penalty. Otherwise the Packers were consistently 3rd and out in the second half. That control kept the Packers defense on the field and Brett Favre off it. That led to an unbreakable cycle of a tired Packer defense and a lethargic Packer offense. That dominance was huge in the Giants pulling off the upset.
3) The Chargers defense came up big – I did not think the Chargers would be able to pick Brady off three times. I was not seeing the pressure they were able to put on the Patriots. While the weather and conditions also helped limit the Patriots offense, the nice pass rush had a lot to do with that too. The Chargers were playing with a short deck. LT was hurt and carried the ball only twice. Gates was slowed. Rivers was limited. The only way the Chargers were going to stay in that game was for the defense to come up with their best game of the season. Given the quality of the Patriots offense, the state of the Chargers offense, and what was at stake I think the Chargers did just that. This team has nothing to hang their heads about. Coming into this year this group of Chargers were 0-2 in the playoffs with two home losses. They were able to beat a talented Titans team at home and go on the road and beat a heavily favored Colts team. This postseason success was a big step for them. While they have to be disappointed they are not in the Super Bowl, the better team won on Sunday. Credit the Chargers for playing through some tough injuries and with making big strides this season. Hopefully for them they will be able to build on that run for next season.
4) The Packers have nothing to hang their heads about – Being a Packer fan, I was as disappointed as anyone. I thought the game set up as an excellent opportunity for the Packers to go to the Super Bowl. I thought they would win by a sizeable margin, but by no means thought the win was guaranteed. I think the Packers and their fans should hold their heads high. The Packers were expected to be 6-10 to 8-8 at the beginning of the year. I think in September a loss in the NFC Championship Game would have been pretty appealing to everyone. This team was the youngest in the league and 2/3 of their roster and their coaching staff had zero playoff experience. They were able to win a home playoff game and they lost an epic playoff game. In 2003 I had the emptiest feeling in the world after the Eagles game. The Packers were a 4th and 26 away from the NFC title game. They allowed Freddie Mitchell to convert that. That is inexcusable and I don’t think I was ever as upset about a loss as I was with that debacle. That team had a lot of veteran players and that loss was inexcusable given the circumstances in that game. Sunday was not about effort or mental breakdowns; it was about execution. They made their share of mistakes and didn’t deserve to win the game. But that team left everything on the field. They made some good plays and some bad plays and some weeks that wins games. The Packers didn’t play their worst game of the season on Sunday, not even close. But they didn’t play their best on a day they needed too. While it is frustrating as a fan that they will not be playing in the Super Bowl it was as enjoyable of a season as I have ever watched and hopes are sky high as long as….
