I present to you my third preseason letter. Again, while I
appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset
if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one
team. Trying to mention every team
or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the fourth week of
preseason action.
Standings
AFC
EastNFC
East
1. Buffalo (2-1) 1.Washington
(3-1)
2. Miami (2-1) 2.
Philadelphia (2-1)
3. New York Jets (2-1) 3.
Dallas (1-2)
4. New England (0-3) 4.
New York Giants (1-2)
AFC
SouthNFC
South
1. Houston (2-1) 1.
Carolina (2-1)
2. Tennessee (2-1) 2.
New Orleans (2-1)
3. Jacksonville (2-1) 3.
Tampa Bay (2-1)
4. Indianapolis (1-3) 4.
Atlanta (1-2)
AFC
NorthNFC
North
1.Pittsburgh (2-1) 1.Detroit
(3-0)
2.Baltimore (1-2) 2.Green
Bay (1-2)
3.Cincinnati (1-2) 3.Minnesota
(1-2)
4.Cleveland (0-3) 4.Chicago
(0-3)
AFC
WestNFC
West
1.San Diego (2-1) 1.
Arizona (2-1)
2. Denver (1-2) 2.
Saint Louis (2-1)
3. Kansas City (1-2) 3.
San Fran (2-1)
4. Oakland (1-2) 4.
Seattle (2-1)
MVP of the Week:
DeAngelo Williams had a very nice game with 9 carries for 101 yards and
1 touchdown. Darren Sproles had a nice game on Monday with 13 carries for 102
yards and 1 touchdown. Jason Hill
from the 49ers had 4 catches for 91 yards and 1 touchdown. However, this week belonged to the
quarterbacks, which is typical in a 3rd preseason game. There were 3
starters that were very impressive.
Aaron Rodgers played nearly perfect in Denver. He was 18 for 22 for 193 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 picks, a
118.4 rating, and 1 rushing touchdown. Marc Bulger went 18 for 25 for 182
yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 picks, and a 119.1 QB rating. Drew Brees went 14 for 22
for 199 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 picks, and a 108.0 QB rating. Finally, Charlie Frye impressed filling
in for Matt Hasselbeck. He had 19 completions in 29 attempts for
219 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 picks, and a 111.1 QB rating.
Loser of the Week: Hard not to start with Matt Leinart. Despite Arizona’s 24-0 win, he lost his
starting job with his 4 for 12, 24 yards, 0 touchdowns, 3 picks, and 2.8 QB
rating. Washington’s run defense
had a lot to be desired. They gave
up 101 yards to Williams and 100 yards to Stewart in Carolina’s 47-3
domination. Finally, Brodie Croyle
failed to seize the starting job for the Chiefs with his 12 for 21, 110 yard, 0
touchdown, 1 pick, and 51.7 QB rating.
The Chiefs were shutout by the Dolphins 24-0.
Game of the Week: San Francisco and Chicago gave us a 37-30
contest that was tied 20-20 at half time.
Orton had 2 touchdown passes and Sullivan and Smith combined for 2
touchdown passes. Dallas and
Houston also played a good game that was won 23-22 by Dallas. Finally, San Diego and Seattle
gave us a good Monday Night game, with San Diego taking the lead 18-17 on a
2-point conversion with 2:12 left in the 4th.
The Bay of Pigs:
The Jets and the Giants didn’t give us a lot of scoring action. They played to a 0-0 first half tie,
before posting a 10-7 second half score.
The Giants were plagued with 4 for 13 third down efficiency and the Jets
were plagued with 12 penalties. It
was a pretty sloppy game.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Still waiting for the regular season on
this.
Remembering Gene Upshaw: The NFL lost one of its greatest players and Labor Leader in
Gene Upshaw. He died of cancer at
63 years old.
Gene Upshaw got his start in the NFL as a guard for the
Oakland Raiders. He was a first or
second All Pro 11-times, 2-time Super Bowl Champion, member of the NFL’s 1970’s
All Decade Team, and a member of the NFL’s 75th Anniversary All-Time
Team. He started 207 consecutive
games and played 307 total games.
Gene Upshaw and Art Shell teamed to form one of the most dominant lines
in NFL History. Upshaw was the only player in Pro Football history to play in
three Super Bowls with the same team in three different decades.
He also led an incredible life after football. He served as the Executive Director of
the National Football League Players Association from 1983 to 2008. That was a major accomplishment in
terms of civil rights for a black person to hold a position of that
stature. He was largely
responsible for bringing the players free agency. Player’s salaries skyrocketed in his tenure.
Upshaw did not serve without controversy. Many players felt he was too friendly
with NFL Owners and Management.
The NFL is the only major American sports league without guaranteed
contracts. He also received a lot
of criticism for how the league treated former players in terms of benefits and
disability.
Regardless of your opinion of his work it is rare that a player
of his stature goes on to have an even more famous career after pro
football. He is one of the most
influential people in the history of the NFL and his death was an unexpected
tragedy. He was just
diagnosed with pancreatic cancer on August 17, 2008. He died just 3 days later.
Hospital Visit: This is a pretty long list this week. Harry Williams, Jr. had the most
serious injury. The Texans
receiver was temporarily paralyzed from the neck down. He regained use of his extremities on
the way to the hospital. He had
surgery to repair a broken C3 vertebrae.
His career is likely over.
It was a bad week for defensive players. Osi Umenyiora was probably the most
devastating injury with his devastating knee injury. He as lost for the season.
Shaun Merriman has a career threatening knee injury. He is seeking medical advice all over
the country as he contemplates whether to shutdown his season or play through
the pain and risk permanent injury.
Tuesday will be his 4th doctor. The previous three recommended he shut his season down. Either way it is hard to imagine him
being as effective in 2008 as we are used to seeing.
Jason Taylor is expected to be out for a couple weeks and
may miss the season opener against the Giants.
Carson Palmer suffered a broken nose. He should be ready for the season
opener. His teammate Chad Johnson
has a partially torn labrum. He
expects to play with that injury.
I don’t expect it to be too big of a deal. Kellen Winslow played with the same injury last season and
tight ends have significantly more blocking responsibility. Still it’s a question mark.
Matt Hasselbeck has a sore back and missed the Charger’s
game. He is expected back for Week
1. With all the injuries they have
at receiver they can’t afford for him to be limited or on the bench, even with
how well Frye played on Monday and Wallace has played this preseason.
Brian Dawkins is questionable for the start of the season
due to an ankle injury he suffered against New England. Kevin Curtis had sports hernia surgery
and will probably not be back until midseason.
Starting Dallas left guard Kyle Kosier strained his foot and
is expected to miss 1 month.
The Raiders suspect offense was weakened further with
receiver Drew Carter and fullback Oren O'Neal suffering season ending
injuries. I told you it was a long
list this week.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Cause for concern in New England? – Again, I’m not
worried about 0-3 for New England.
Brady isn’t playing on offense and a veteran team with this much playoff
experience is not going to go full bore in the preseason.
It isn’t so much the losses, but how the losses
occurred. It’s the 17-play 80-yard
drive that Griese went 8 for 8 on to open the game against the first team
defense. Its McNabb’s 13 for 17
for 180 yards and 1 touchdown against 0 picks. It’s the fact they have been outscored 42 to 70 in 3
preseason games.
Veteran teams struggle in preseason. The Colts are traditionally a bad
preseason team. They went 1-3 in
2007, 1-3 in 2006, and 0-5 in 2005.
They started all three of those seasons at least 9-0.
However, this also reminds me of the 2002 St Louis
Rams. That team was coming off a
tough loss as a favorite in the prior years Super Bowl. That was the 14-2 unstoppable favorite
that lost by a field goal to big underdog New England. That team went 0-4 in preseason and
looked awful. That team battled
injuries and poor play on its way to a 7-9 season.
Until we see Brady on the field its impossible to know how
this team does in 2008. Still, it
has been a very bad preseason for the Patriots. It is enough to have me concerned as we approach the regular
season.
2) Dallas coming into form – This is exactly what the 0-2
Cowboys needed. Romo was very
sharp going 15 for 19 for 166 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 pick. Barber had 13 carries for 75 yards and
1 touchdown. Owens, Hurd, and
Crayton had good halves. The
Cowboys were up 20-10 at the half, before holding on for a 23-22 win.
This is exactly what you want if you are the Cowboys. They got a good game in their most
important preseason game. They can build off this performance. Great week for the Cowboys.
3) Weekly Favre update – No newsletter would be complete
without a weekly Favre update. He
played very well. 9 for 12 for 96
yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 picks.
He had a 30-yard pass called back on a penalty and a long touchdown pass
called back on a penalty. He’s
slinging the ball, getting good velocity, and seems to be in decent command of
the offense.
The biggest concern for the Jets is with so many new
starters they are going to get false starts, motion penalties, and other
mistakes that come with not having played together for a long time. Having a veteran like Favre can speed
up the process. While the Jets
look like anything but Super Bowl contenders the Favre experiment appears to
have been a worthwhile gamble.
They will need to continue to work hard to be ready for the opener.
4) The effect of Osi Umenyiora’s season ending injury – This
is a devastating loss. Osi Umenyiora has led the NY Giants in sacks each of the
last 3 years. He has either led or
tied the team for the lead in sacks each of the last 3 years. He has 40.5 sacks over the last 4
years. Osi Umenyiora had 6 sacks in one game against the Eagles in 2007. He is a big part of their pass rush.
The plan to replace Strahan was to move Tuck to defensive
end and have him team with Osi Umenyiora as double digit sack artists. Now the Giants have to contemplate
whether it is worth making an offer to Strahan to come out of retirement. Strahan has to figure out if he is
interested. Both have to decide
whether he is a) in shape to comeback, and b) if not, how long that would
take. This is not like Favre who
was not in camp, but was keeping himself in NFL shape. Strahan is currently vacationing in
Greece. I can’t imagine he’s doing
2-3 hours of workouts in the morning.
The Giants can survive this even if Strahan doesn’t
comeback. They can move Mathias
Kiwanuka back to his original position of defensive end. He played that position at Boston
College as well as his first year with the NY Giants. That would weaken their linebacker position.
This is the worst possible scenario of preseason. To have a player of this caliber go
down in preseason is the nightmare every coach has in August. The Giants still have the talent in
place to compete in the NFC East.
However, it will be challenging to play as well as they did at the end
of last season. The Giants losing
Strahan, Mitchell, Torbar, and Wilson in the off-season was not something to
take lightly. Losing Umenyiora
makes it that much more difficult.
This injury puts even more pressure on Eli Manning to avoid the mistakes
that plagued him in the 2007 regular season and continue on his strong
postseason run.
5) Is Detroit emerging as a division favorite – Detroit has
had a good preseason. In 3 games
they have outscored their opposition 66-26. They squeaked out a 3-point win against the Giants before
crushing Cincinnati and Cleveland.
Kitna has been very sharp in preseason. Kevin Smith has run the ball well. Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams have both impressed. The defense has not gotten pushed
around.
It’s not inconceivable the Lions could contend for this
division. They started the 2007
season 6-2, before fading to a 1-8 finish. Smith should allow them to run the ball better in 2008 and
Kitna shouldn’t have as many interceptions now that the premier game manager
Mike Martz is blessing the 49ers with his run and gun style.
Green Bay has that Brett guy gone. Chicago is fielding an offense that figures to be somewhere
between below average and terrible.
That leaves Minnesota as the favorite. Minnesota has a lot of questions at quarterback. It is not inconceivable they could
struggle at times. While Minnesota
is probably the favorite with Green Bay in the mix, Detroit is playing the best
preseason ball of any team in this division, if not the NFL. If they can carry that into the regular
season they will add some intrigue to what figures to be a wide-open division.
6) Rodgers impressive in Denver; Packers were not – Rodgers
played very well in Denver. He
went 18 for 22 for 193 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 picks. He was only sacked once. He led the Packers on scoring drives in
4 of his 5 possessions. Despite
that the Packers trailed 17-13 at the half and only won 27-24.
The reason for that was a terrible defensive effort. Ryan punted a ball that was downed
inside the 1-yard line. The
Broncos took that ball 99 yards down the field and scored a touchdown on the
Packers. Then the Packers
tried to cover Marshall with backup corner Williams in 1-on-1 coverage. The result was a touchdown drive that
took 16 seconds.
I have not been very impressed with the Packers defense in
preseason. The Bengals scored 20
of their 30 preseason points in the opener against the Packers. San Fran put 34 points on the board. The Broncos put 24 points on the
board. Granted some of that was
against backups. Still, what are
the Packers going to do in the secondary if Woodson or Harris gets hurt? What are they going to do in nickel and
dime sets?
The Packers will not be as good on offense in 2008 as they
were in 2007. That is a given now
that #4 is not there. In order for
the Packers to succeed they will have to run the ball better and play better
defense. Grant hasn’t carried the
ball yet and the defense played much better in the preseason last year. That is not a good sign for Packer
fans.
7) Raven’s offensive woes – This is an offense that has not
disappointed. No one expected them
to do well in 2008 and they are not giving us a false sense of hope in the
preseason. The Ravens managed 13
first half points against the Patriots.
Since then the Patriot defense has been shredded. The Ravens followed that up with 7
first half points against the Vikings.
Then they had 3 first half points against the potent Rams defense.
Flacco has a 66.3 QB rating in the preseason. Boller has a 51.8. Smith has a 46.8. Compare that to the 115.6 QB rating of
Brett Ratliff, 92.3 rating of Aaron Rodgers, or 82.5 rating of Brady
Quinn. The preseason is supposed
to be a chance for young quarterbacks to succeed against vanilla defenses. The Ravens are struggling to score any
points with their first team.
Their quarterbacks are struggling to put up good numbers in preseason
action. That doesn’t bode well for
the regular season where they play both the NFC East and AFC South.
Ravens fans will argue that McGahee isn’t playing right now and will help this
offense. That is a valid
defense. There are just so many
tough defenses on the schedule and a lack of playmakers that are going to help
these young guys put up big numbers.
It’s a vicious circle. The
skill players aren’t good enough to overcome average quarterback play and the
quarterbacks aren’t good enough to overcome average skill position play. Mason, Heap, and McGahee are good
players, but they aren’t game changers.
None of those guys should be featured offensive weapons. The result is going to be a long year for
the offense in Baltimore.
8) Matt Leinart’s failure, affect on Cardinals – This is why
I wasn’t afraid to pick the Cardinals to win the AFC West. I am disappointed in Matt Leinart. I thought he had the potential to
breakout this season. Reports out
of Arizona were that he was doing well in practice and with the offense. However, he had a horrible game against
the Raiders in which he had 3 interceptions. The result was a benching.
The nice thing is this doesn’t hurt Arizona too much. In fact it may help them. Kurt Warner is not the same guy he was
in St Louis, but he still threw 27 touchdown passes last year. He has good chemistry with the star
receivers and is a player that defenses respect. His only fault is that he tends to hold on to the ball too
long causing unnecessary fumbles and sacks.
That said Warner isn’t going to get rattled in a big
game. He is a solid veteran
influence on a team that needs to learn how to win. While Matt Leinart appears to be headed for the bust
category Arizona still has an excellent chance to compete in the NFC West.
9) What happened to Washington?- This was the head scratching game of the week. It’s one thing to lose a preseason
game. But 47-3 is always going to
be cause for concern, especially against a Carolina team that many people
consider a fringe playoff team at best.
The majority of the damage was done in a 31 point 2nd
quarter. Steve Smith, DeAngelo
Williams, Johnathan Stewart, and Dante Rosario all got into the mix. Credit Carolina for playing a good
game.
Washington was 3-0 headed into this game; so one preseason
blowout isn’t reason for panic.
Jason Taylor is now hurt and figures to miss time. He might not be ready to open the
season as the Redskins face the NY Giants on September 4th to open
the season. The team still seems
to be learning the new offense and has had a number of injuries on
defense.
The Redskins can’t afford to get off to a slow start. They play at New York, Dallas, and
Philadelphia in the first 5 games of the season. They host New Orleans and Arizona. It is imperative that they don’t dig themselves a 2-3 or 1-4
hole. In that division it will be
tough to overcome that.
10) What is going on in Cleveland? – If Detroit as been the
most impressive team of the preseason the Browns have been one of the
worst. They played well in the
opener against the Jets. Since
then they have imploded. Even
though they only lost 37-30 to the Giants they trailed that game 31-3 in the
second quarter. Those were backups
getting the team back into the game.
Then they lost 26-6 to Detroit.
Anderson suffered a concussion against the Giants and did
not play against Detroit. Crennel
has elected to hold out a lot of his starters to keep them healthy for the regular
season.
The Browns have a tough start to the season. They play Dallas and Pittsburgh at
home, before playing at Cincinnati and at Baltimore. If the Browns start 0-2 it is going to put a lot of pressure
on them to win on the road in consecutive weeks. Last year the Bengals and Ravens had less than stellar
seasons. Despite the Browns 10-6
record they lost 19-14 at Cincinnati and gave up 30 points in a 33-30 win
against the Ravens. That was the
crossbar miracle game. That was
also the only game Baltimore scored over 30 points last season.
The Browns are going to score points in 2008. The problem is that they still have
questions on defense and based on the preseason it doesn’t look like a real
strength of the team. Hopefully
for the Browns they can get that fixed in the regular season. If they don’t they are going to need to
score points in bunches to be successful.
A Look Ahead:
There isn’t really anything to look ahead too as most teams will be
looking to rest their starters and get ready for the opener. That’s why I gave 10 impressions
instead of just 5 in an attempt to cover more teams without wasting time predicting
completely meaningless final preseason games.
Next weeks newsletter will be light on recapping action from
the final week and will focus on Week 1 matchups and things to look for. I look forward to reading your
comments.
It’s back. Last year I did a weekly newsletter of all the NFL Action. Due to the fact there was only one preseason game last week, I decided to hold off on my newsletter until this week. Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action.
Standings
AFC EastNFC East
1.New York Jets (1-0) 1.Washington (2-0)
2. Buffalo (0-1) 2. Dallas (0-1)
3. Miami (0-1) 3. NY Giants (0-1)
4. New England (0-1) 4. Philadelphia (0-1)
AFC SouthNFC South
1. Houston (1-0) 1. Carolina (1-0)
2. Jacksonville (1-0) 2. New Orleans (1-0)
3. Tennessee (1-0) 3. Tampa Bay (1-0)
4. Indianapolis (0-2) 4. Atlanta (0-1)
AFC NorthNFC North
1.Baltimore (1-0) 1.Detroit (1-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-0) 2.Chicago (0-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-0) 3.Green Bay (0-1)
4.Cleveland (0-1) 4.Minnesota (0-1)
AFC WestNFC West
1.Kansas City (1-0) 1. Seattle (1-0)
2. Oakland (1-0) 2. Arizona (0-1)
3. San Diego (1-0) 3. San Fran (0-1)
4. Denver (0-1) 4. St Louis (0-1)
MVP of the Week: It’s hard to go with MVPs of preseason games when the starters are only playing a couple series. Seneca Wallace had a fine opening to the preseason. He went 15 for 20 with 165 yards and 3 touchdown passes with no picks. Julius Peppers did very well for the Panthers. He sacked Sorgi, forced a fumble, and hurried him into an interception on the Colts first 2 possessions. It is crucial he rebound from 2.5 sacks in 2007. Aaron Rodgers also played a very solid game in his first start. He went 9 for 15 for 117 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 pick.
Game of the Week: Most fans aren’t going to watch 4 quarters of a preseason game unless it’s their favorite team. If you are a Panthers or Colts fan you saw a pretty good game. The Panthers took the Colts to OT and won 23-20. Carolina stopped Indy on a 4th and 1 at the Carolina 34 yard line and then proceeded to drive down the field for the game winning field goal.
The Bay of Pigs: Some years the games are not viewable. 10-7 finals. Punting exhibitions and penalty fests. For preseason there weren’t too many really bad games. I would say the worst games would go with a tie between San Fran vs. Oakland and Tampa Bay vs. Miami. Both teams had a half time score of 7-3. The Bucs threw for 181 yards to the Dolphins 134. Tampa out gained Miami on the ground 114-64. That final was 17-6. In Oakland, San Fran out passed Oakland 199-98. Oakland was able to dominate the ground 248-70. However, the result was only a final score of 18-6. Again, for a first preseason games nobody did too badly this week. I’ve seen a lot worse over the years.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Last year I had this named the Mike Martz Award for the stupid decision made by a player or coach that cost his team the victory. This was in honor of the man that used to challenge 7-yard plays and burn timeouts 3:00 minutes into the 3rd quarter when he was the headman for the Rams. Unless I see something incredibly stupid I tend not to give the award in the preseason. If you saw something like that this week make sure you leave it in the comments section.
Hospital Visit: There were a lot of significant injuries this week. The scariest injury of the weekend went to Denver linebacker Louis Green. Green lay motionless on the Reliant Stadium field for several minutes. Green was put on a stretcher and was moving his fingers and hands as he was taken from the field. Green was released from the hospital and all signs are that he will be okay.
Bobby Engram is going to be sidelined 6-8 weeks with a crack in his shoulder bone. He was the leading receiver from a year ago and the one veteran influence amongst a unit with a lot of question marks. Hasselbeck is going to be playing with a lot of unproven wide receivers. The Seahawks will need Engram back ASAP.
Madieu Williams suffered a neck injury and is expected to miss 6 weeks. That is a big injury for a team that was depending on him to sure up a secondary that ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed.
Charlie Batch was a big injury for the Steelers. He has been with them since 2003 as their backup quarterback. He broke his collarbone in Friday’s game against the Eagles and is expected to miss 10-weeks with that injury. That left Dennis Dixon as the backup, which prompted the signing of Byron Leftwich. If Big Ben were to go down for a couple weeks the Steelers could be in a big bind. Batch has filled in for Big Ben in the past and done very well for the Steelers.
Finally, Shawn Andrews just reported to camp this week, citing depression for the first 17 days he missed. Quoting the AP, "I'm willing to admit that I've been going through a very bad time with depression," Andrews told the Daily News in his first public comments about his training camp absence. "I've finally decided to get professional help. It's not something that blossomed up overnight. I'm on medication, trying to get better."
First of all, you have to hope that he is getting treatment and can recover from this. Situations like this remind you that there are bigger things going on in these guys life other than football. From a football standpoint, having your 2-time Pro Bowl guard out of camp for this reason is never a good thing. They need him to anchor that offensive line. He is a fantastic guard and is a big part of that football team.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Brett Favre – I am ready to be done talking about him from a non-football standpoint. It is good to see him in a camp and start being talked about as a football player and not as a distraction. When he starts making plays good or bad I would love to talk about those.
I think all NFL fans are glad that the soap opera part of the story is over. Now it would be nice if the announcers would move past it. The ESPN crew beat that horse to death on Thursday night with the Cardinals and the Saints. They picked right up where they left off on Monday Night.
When it comes to the NFL I like hearing about Favre more than just about anything, but enough is enough. He isn’t with the Cardinals, Saints, or Packers and to mention his name on every play is a bit silly. While some people will want to evaluate the trade on a play-by-play basis, it is going to take a year or two to ultimately find out if the Packers made the right call. A play-by-play analysis of Rodger’s development is as absurd as mentioning Favre’s name on every play.
2) Aaron Rodgers played solid, but… – I got the feeling that many people in the national media were looking for validation of the trade in that game. It’s a preseason game. Most teams play vanilla defenses. Cincinnati was a terrible defense in 2007.
Even if it meant everything in the world you can’t evaluate trades on a game-by-game basis. Here are two random game lines from two quarterbacks careers:
Both games were played in 2006. Both games were against Detroit where Detroit was the road team. The September game is Rex Grossman in a 34-7 victory over the Lions. The December game is Brett Favre in a 17-9 victory over Detroit. That doesn’t make Rex Grossman a better quarterback than Favre. He just played better against Detroit at home that year. Yet this is how many in the media is choosing to evaluate Rodgers vs. Favre.
Aaron Rodgers is probably under more pressure for a first year starter than any player in the history of the NFL. He is going to be inconsistent this year just like most first year starters are inconsistent. The important part of Monday’s game was to see how he responded to that pressure, something he did not handle well in the Family Night Scrimmage. Other than that you weren’t going to find much out.
Here was my impression of Rodgers. He impressed me in the sense that there wasn’t a throw he couldn’t make, something people have been talking about since he took over for Favre. He had good velocity on the ball. He had command of the offense. He didn’t stray from the pocket like many young quarterbacks do. Fleeing the pocket doesn’t give the play a chance to develop. He needs to feel the pressure a little better. He missed a safety blitz and was hit a number of times. If he does not improve in that area he will not play the full schedule. He also needs to work on his touch and accuracy.
He played a good game against a defense that was not very solid last year. He also did that without Grant or Jennings, two of the Packer’s biggest offensive weapons. My doubts haven’t been so much about his abilities as they have been about his ability to stay healthy.
Regardless of where you are at with this guy it is going to take a lot more games for anyone to make a determination about where he is at as a professional player. Put a check mark on the good column Monday Night. He played a solid game and will need to build off that game and keep getting better. Based on his attitude since March I would expect him to do just that.
3) Larry Johnson looked healthy – This is a guy that gained 1,750 yards on 5.2 yards per carry scoring 20 touchdowns in 2005. He set a NFL record with 416 carries for 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2006. He never looked right last season gaining 559 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and scoring only 3 touchdowns. He was hurt midseason against the Packers and missed the rest of the season.
Johnson ran for a touchdown on the Chiefs first drive as the Chiefs beat the Bears 24-20. He only had 8 carries for 18 yards, but had a nice run up the middle past Brian Urlacher for 7 yards and scored on a 5-yard touchdown.
People are very concerned about him for a couple reasons. The Chiefs quarterback situation dictates that defenses will concentrate on him. How he responds from a broken foot is going to be key if he is going to get the carries he needs for the Chiefs to be successful.
18 yards on eight carries is nothing to jump up and down about. But he had a couple nice runs and looked to have some of his explosiveness back. The Chiefs aren’t going to work him to hard in the preseason. This was an encouraging sign and is hopefully a sign of things to come.
4) Seattle impressive in opening win – It’s hard to tell what is what in the preseason. However, Seattle had a very nice opening game. They traveled to Minnesota and won 34-17. What was encouraging was 35 carries for 162 yards, which is an average of 4.6 yards per carry.
Again, it’s preseason. The Williams Brothers didn’t play 4 quarters. Allen wasn’t chasing the quarterback the whole time. The scored was tied 17-17 at the half, so the blowout happened with a lot of backups that won’t be on the field come Week 1.
This team is set at quarterback. Brees, Hasselbeck, and Romo are probably the three best quarterbacks in the NFC. Having a good quarterback will keep you in a lot of games. If Seattle can run the ball like they did against the Vikings that will be a big plus. Mare was also 2-2 on field goals and 4-4 on extra points, which is much better than his horrendous 2007 season. How he replaces Brown this year is critical for them winning close games in 2008.
I have questioned how this offense is going to do in 2008. Scoring 34 points on the road with an offense that has some questions is never a bad thing. However, Bobby Engram injuring his shoulder is a very bad thing. That leaves them even weaker at a position that has a lot of question marks. Regardless, Seattle impressed against a good team and deserves credit for that.
5) 49er’s quarterback situation – It was interesting to see JT O’Sullivan starting for the 49ers in their first preseason game. Nolan’s reason for that was that he knows what he has in Smith and Hill and wanted to see O’Sullivan work with the first team. If that doesn’t tell that Smith has hit rock bottom, I don’t know what will. Smith played in only 7 games and threw only 193 passes and you don’t want to see what your $49.5 million dollar investment looks like so that you can see what a 6th round pick from the 2002 draft looks like?
I’ve argued with quite a few 49ers that have argued that it is too early to label Smith a bust. If labeling Bust were the equivalent of a football game it would be 35-14 with about 4:00 minutes left in the game with Team Bust comfortably in the lead. If the coach is worried about what he has in JT O’Sullivan that is an obvious indicator that he isn’t too high on Alex Smith.
The reason O’Sullivan is getting a look is because he played in Detroit last year, which is where Martz coached. O’Sullivan has the best knowledge of the offense. I would not be shocked if he ends up starting the season as the number one quarterback for the 49ers.
A Look Ahead: It’s pretty hard to get hyped for the 2nd preseason game. Once the regular season starts I’m going to pick the best 5 games on the schedule. I’m not doing that with preseason games. There is going to be a lot of attention paid to the Jets and Redskins as this will be Favre’s first action with a team other than the Packers since 1991. People will be curious to see how he looks in this new offense. New England and Tampa Bay features two playoff teams. The Giants and Browns could be an entertaining matchup.
I’m not going to waste too much time previewing preseason games. As teams take the field for the second time we should start to see some trends and can start looking at possible concerns or possible things to be optimistic about. The key is that teams build some momentum and keep their players healthy. All in all it was a good week of preseason action and it is nice to have football back. Let me know what you thought about this week's developments in the NFL and your favorite team's performance in the preseason.
This is my final installment of eight NFL division
previews. While there is still
over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could
be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing
out after the free agency period and the draft. Here are the links to the other divisions that have
already been completed.
The NFC West had a rough year in 2007. Seattle won the division with a 10-6
record, but was 1-1 against playoff teams. They won their wildcard game against Washington before being
blown out by Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Arizona finished 8-8, but two
disappointing losses to the 49ers kept them out of playoff contention. The 49ers were a trendy pick to win the
division after a free agency spending spree and finished 5-11. Finally, the Rams who were also a
trendy pick to win the division finished 3-13 and had the second overall pick
in the draft. Injuries and
inconsistent play were largely responsible for a division that produced only
one team with a winning record.
The NFC West has been owned by the Seattle Seahawks, who
have won the division for 4 consecutive seasons and made the playoffs for 5
consecutive seasons. Here is how I
see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC West.
1) Arizona
Cardinals
07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 404 (7th)
Points Allowed: 399 (27th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in
NFL)
Strengths: The Arizona Cardinals
have one of the strongest passing offenses in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald had 100 catches for
1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Anquan Boldin added 71 catches for 853 yards and 9 touchdowns, despite
missing 5 starts with an injury.
Those two are the most explosive wide receiver combo in the NFC. Fitzgerald will be 25 years old at the
end of August and Boldin will be 28 years old in October. If the Cardinals can resolve
Boldin’s contract issues they should have a dominant receiving duo for years to
come. Bryant Johnson was a solid 3rd
receiver and is only 27 years old.
Losing him to division rival San Francisco was a meaningful loss. He has filled in well in he past when
Boldin or Fitzgerald was hurt. Ben
Patrick and Leonard Pope are young tight ends that the Cardinals hope can
emerge. The Cardinals are loaded
with young offensive weapons at WR and TE.
Kurt Warner enjoyed his best season
since his years in St Louis. He
had 11 starts, 3,417 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 17 picks, and an 89.8 QB
rating. He is expected to be the
backup to 3rd year QB Matt Leinart who really struggled at the
beginning of the season before having his 2007 campaign cut short by a
collarbone injury. Leinart has
reportedly looked very strong this offseason, but Warner is still taking snaps
with the first team. If he
struggles the coaching staff will not hesitate to go with Warner.
Edge James rebounded slightly in
2007, thanks to a coaching staff that focused on the run slightly more than
Denny Green. His 1,222 rushing
yards were 7th in the NFL and he improved his yards per carry from
3.4 to 3.8, which is still not great.
That signing has not produced the results many thought it would. The Cardinals have no one else that ran
the ball and finished 29th in rushing yards gained.
The Cardinals front seven did a
nice job of stopping the run, finishing 9th in the NFL. They also finished 13th
in sacks with 36. Losing Calvin
Pace to the Jets was a significant loss, but the Jets drastically overpaid for
his services. Six years and 42
million dollars was too much cap space to part with. The Cardinals did not
replace him with anyone in free agency or the draft. 4th year player
Chike Okeafor is expected to take that spot.
Weaknesses: Ken Whisenhunt was an
assistant for the Steelers on teams that had very strong defenses. That is what he has been brought in to
fix. He needs to install toughness
on offense and rebuild a bad defense.
The Cardinals have had a good enough passing offense to make the
playoffs the last few years. The main problem on defense was stopping the
pass. They finished 28th
in pass yards allowed and 25th in touchdown passes allowed.
That was the main motivation for
adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round of the draft. The Cardinals could have used a back to
split carries with Edge, but the Cardinals could not pass on the opportunity to
add secondary help. He has big
play potential and is expected to be the nickel back as a rookie. Roderick Hood and Eric Green are
expected to remain the starters.
Adrian Wilson is a solid safety and Antrel Rolle will be the other
safety this year. The secondary
should be improved in 2008.
The other area the Cardinals wanted
to improve on was the pass rush.
While 36 sacks ranked 12th it was also 17 sacks less than the
league leading NY Giants. The
Cardinals were far from an elite pass rushing group last season. Darnell Dockett made the Pro Bowl with
his 9 sacks at defensive tackle spot.
The Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell and Kenny Iwebema to give them
more depth at defensive end and more of a pass rush.
Finally, the offensive line still
needs some work. James is still an
effective runner, but doesn’t get the same lanes he did in Indy. Brown and Gandy are good at tackle, but
the Cardinals have little depth behind those two. The interior of the offensive line is improved from the
Denny Green days, but still needs work.
Prediction: This is my surprise division winner pick in 2008. The Cardinals have been
a trendy wildcard pick the last couple seasons only to disappoint. I picked them to finish 4th
last season, which turned out to be an underestimate. I thought it would take a couple years to recover from the
Denny Green era. There are good
things going on in Arizona and few people realize the Cardinals were two bad
49er losses away from earning a wildcard.
The Cardinals beat the Steelers, Seahawks, and Browns last season. This was anything but a pushover.
I love the schedule to start the
season. 1) @ San Fran, 2) Miami,
3) Washington, 4) New York Jets, and 5) Buffalo gives them an excellent chance
to start 4-1. They need to start
hot because they close the season with 15) Minnesota, 16) @ New England, and
17) Seattle. That isn’t going to
be an easy stretch to make up ground.
Arizona had a very nice draft and
would be a bigger favorite to me if they had their quarterback situation
figured out. Warner is a question
mark at this point in his career and Leinart needs to break out this year. If he has another year like he did last
year he is going to earn the bust label.
I expect him to rebound. I
think Arizona made a good hire in Whisenhunt and the Cardinals are on the way
up. I think Seattle’s window has
started to close. This is the year
I think the Cardinals finally put it together and win the NFC West behind a
potent offense and a favorable schedule.
2008 Strength of Schedule: 122-134
(.477) (19th in NFL)
Strengths: The strength of this team is their
defense. That is important,
because no other team has a defense with as much talent as the Seahawks in the
NFC West. The Seahawks recorded
the 4th most sacks in the NFL with 45. That was in large part to Patrick Kearny and his All Pro
14.5 sack season. The defensive
line did an excellent job of putting pressure on the quarterback.
What they need to improve on is
stopping the run. They ranked 12th
in rush yards allowed and 27th in rush touchdowns allowed. That was really the defense’s only
weakness in 2007. This is a very
fast front 7, which creates the pressure, but is a little on the light side to
stop the run. The Green Bay
Packers exposed the Seahawks for that weakness in the divisional round. Ryan Grant ran right through that
defense for the tune of 201 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Lofa Tatupu has emerged as one of
the best middle linebackers in the NFL.
He was an All Pro selection last season. Julian Peterson was selected to the Pro Bowl at the outside
linebacker spot. These two are
extremely fast and make plays all over the field.
In the secondary Marcus Trufant had
a Pro Bowl year with 7 picks. He
is emerging as one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks. Jennings, Russell, and Grant round out a very solid
secondary.
On offense, Matt Haselbeck has
established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He had 3,966 yards passing, 28 touchdowns,
12 picks, and a 91.4 rating without the benefit of getting much help from the
running game. He is now the
featured part of the Seahawks offense.
Alexander had only 716 rushing
yards and 4 touchdowns in 2007.
That seems incomprehensible when you consider he had 1,880 rushing yards
and 27 rushing touchdowns in 2005.
Alexander was released and while it will look strange not to have him as
the featured runner for the first time since his rookie season in 2000, the
Seahawks abandoned him in 2007 and were already featuring Hasselbeck and the
passing game. That will make that
transition easier.
Finally, you can’t talk about the
Seahawks offense without mentioning Walter Jones. He has been as solid of a tackle as the NFL has had over the
last decade. At 34 he is still
going strong. He anchors a line
that is still good, but not as dominant as 2005 when they went to the Super
Bowl.
Weaknesses: This is a team with a lot of question
marks on offense. That is a
surprising statement given Mike Holmgren’s reputation as an offensive
mastermind.
Let’s start with the wide
receivers. Deion Branch tore his
ACL in the playoff loss to the Packers on January 15, 2008. That really puts his status in jeopardy
to start the season. Bobby Engram
is 35 years old. He had a career
year with 94 catches and 1,147 yards.
He is unhappy and demanding a new deal. DJ Hackett left for Carolina. That leaves special team standout, but disappointing
receiver Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu to battle for playing time opposite
Engram. That is huge, because of
the Seahawks inability to run the ball last year. They used a lot of 4 WR sets to spread the ball out. Teams need a lot of WR depth to do
that. The Seahawks are not as deep
as last year and that is a concern.
The Seahawks have no tight end
production. The tight end is a big
component in the West Coast offense.
Marcus Pollard was released.
Will Heller is expected to be the starter. He has 32 catches for 228 yards and 7 touchdowns, not last
year but in 5 years and 58 career games.
John Carlson is a rookie 2nd round and will be expected to
contribute immediately.
Then there is the running
game. People need to stop acting
like Julius Jones is the savior of the running game. He rushed for 3.6 yards per carry behind one of the best
offensive lines in football with Dallas last year. There is a reason the Cowboys went with Barber and let Jones
walk. He should be a good fit in
this offense, but I can’t see him rushing for 1,200 plus yards and 10
touchdowns. He is not a featured
back. Morris, Duckett, and Jones
will split duties depending on the situation. I don’t look for any of them to emerge.
Then there is the offensive
line. Walter Jones is now 34 years
old. The Seahawks have never
really replaced Hutchinson since he left for Minnesota. Mike Wahle was a good pickup at guard,
but he hasn’t been the same since he left Green Bay. He was injured in 2006 and played on a bad offense in
2007. If he can return to his
Green Bay form it will help the Seahawks regain their running form of a few
years ago.
Finally, there is the special teams
factor. Josh Brown signed with St
Louis and was an extremely reliable kicker. The new kicker is no other than Olindo Mare, who was a
disaster in New Orleans. He was 10
for 17 on field goals and New Orleans plays in a lot of nice weather sites,
including their dome. How is he
going to respond kicking in the elements.
When you add those things all together I think the offense is going to
take a significant step back in 2008.
I think Mare could cost them a couple games that Brown would have
won.
Prediction: This is supposed to be Mike Holmgren’s
last season with the Seahawks before he calls it quits on what has been a
legendary career. He has coached
in 3 Super Bowls, winning it all in Super Bowl XXXI. He coached all time great Joe Montana and Hall of Famer
Steve Young as a coordinator in San Fran.
He developed one of the all time great quarterbacks in Brett Favre as
the Packer’s Head Coach. He has
gone to a Super Bowl in Seattle developing Hasselbeck to go along with
Alexander and a strong running game.
His coaching tree speaks for itself. The number of ex Holmgren assistants coaching around the NFL
is long and prominent. If he
actually decides to hang it up it will have been a fantastic career, one that
should see him inducted into Canton, Ohio.
It would seem logical to pick the
Hawks to win the division in his last year and ride out into the sunset. I just don’t like the Seahawks team
this season as much as in years past.
I think they have gotten a little bit older. I don’t think they have a lot of good answers at wide
receiver. I’m not a fan of their
running game. I’m not going to
pick an offense to do well, just because they have a head coach and quarterback
with solid reputations. There are
a lot of other things that go into having a good offense.
Still, the Seahawks are going to
score points. This is not one of
the 10 worst offenses in the NFL.
It isn’t even the worst offense in the division. However in order for the defense to get
those sacks and not give up a lot of rushing yards, Seattle needs their offense
to dominate the action. I’m not
sure they can do that in 2008 like they did last season.
The Seahawks have been the class of
this division since 2003. However,
there are moments when you look back and see the door slam shut on a teams
run. That’s what I think we saw in
that Green Bay game. The Seahawks
had a 14-0 lead in that game and proceed to get stomped. That game was disturbing on so many
levels. It wasn’t that they lost;
it was how they lost. They were
manhandled on both sides of the ball.
They have progressively gone in the wrong direction since 2005. A very weak schedule and bad division probably
saved them in 2007.
I think they have a pretty tough
stretch in the middle of the season.
They play 9) Philadelphia, 10) @ Miami, 11) Arizona, 12) Washington, 13)
@ Dallas, and 14) New England.
They also have games against 6) Green Bay and 7) @ Tampa Bay, which will
not be as good as last year, but still tough.
The Seahawks will still win their
share of games. They will still be
tough at home. I wouldn’t be
shocked if they were able to put together a division winner. The NFC West isn’t exactly the toughest
division right now. I just think
it is someone else’s time. The
Cardinals should be able to maneuver the middle of the season with greater ease
than the Seahawks and build a cushion heading into their tough stretch to close
the season. While the Cardinals
will not run away with the division, I predict they will sneak by the Seahawks,
who will still be tough, but not as tough as in years past.
Seattle Seahawks’ Record: 8-8 – NFC
West 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) St
Louis Rams
07 Record: 3-13
Points Scored: 263 (28th)
Points Allowed: 438 (31st)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 125-131
(.488) (17th in NFL)
Strengths: When you start the season 0-8, finish
with the 2nd worst scoring defense and the 5th worst
scoring offense there aren’t a lot of things to hang your hat on. However, the Rams were probably hit by
injuries worse than any team in the NFL.
They had massive casualties on the offensive line, including future Hall
of Fame tackle Orlando Pace, who was lost for the season in the opener. He missed 8 games in 2006 and it
remains to be seen if he can still stay healthy an entire season.
Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger
missed 4 starts each. Torry Holt
was not the same Torry Holt as a couple years ago due to his knee
condition. Doctors feel he will be
able to play still, but fear it will be a chronic problem. If those three guys aren’t healthy the
whole season the Rams can’t win.
Issac Bruce is no longer with the
team, having moved to San Francisco.
He was a great receiver for many years, but Holt has been the go to guy
in recent years. They still have
Bennett and they drafted Donnie Avery in the second round. Randy McMichael needs to regain his
Dolphin form from a few seasons ago.
Josh Brown was a nice
addition. He is a solid kicker
that is an upgrade over Wilkins and hurts a division rival at the same time.
The bottom line is that the 28th
ranking in scoring offense from last season is deceiving. When this offense is healthy it is
extremely dangerous. Bulger had
4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 8 picks in 2006. Steven Jackson had 2,334 rushing and receiving yards and
scored 16 touchdowns in 2006. Holt
had 1,188 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2006. He had almost identical numbers in 2007, but had 3 fewer
touchdowns catches. These are
three of the premier offensive players in the NFL. When they are healthy and at full strength they can put up
points in bunches. Given the state
of their defense that will be a must if they want to win in 2008.
Weaknesses: This defense has all kinds of
problems. They struggled to stop
the pass, rush the passer, and stop the run. Their only real strength on defense was playmaking. They ranked tied for 10th in
the NFL with interceptions with 18 interceptions. However, when you give up over 20 points in 12 of the 16
games there is going to be problems winning games. The defense was a joke in December giving up 33 points to
Green Bay, 41 to Pittsburgh, and 48 to Arizona. No defense was playing as bad as the Rams at the end of the
season.
That was the main reason for
selecting Chris Long with the second pick in the draft. Defenses are built from
the defensive line out and the Rams need to overhaul that unit. Adam Carriker can then move to
defensive tackle. With Leonard
Little, James Hall, and Chris Long rushing from the ends the Rams are hoping they
can put more pressure on the quarterback.
They also added Justin King in the 4th round to help in the
secondary. He was an up and down
corner at Penn State. He should be
a nickel and dime package guy as a rookie.
However, other than Long they
really haven’t made a lot of changes to a defense that was downright awful in
2007. I still see St Louis as one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.
The other area of concern was the
offensive line. John Greco was
drafted in the 3rd round to provide depth. They really didn’t add anyone other than him there
either. If they suffer injuries
like they did last year they will struggle to maximize their skill position
talent.
Finally, Trent Green was an
interesting signing. They went
from a bad backup in Gus Frerotte to a guy that a few years ago was among the
better QBs in the league. However,
they aren’t getting the guy that threw for over 4,500 yards in 2004. They are getting a guy that is a
concussion away from retirement.
If Bulger misses a lot of time the Rams do not stand a good chance to
compete in most games. I don’t
think Green can hold up for more than a game or two.
Prediction: This is a team that
looked to be headed in the right direction with Scott Linehan finishing 8-8 in
his first year. I thought they would
win the NFC West last season. This
defense has absolutely collapsed and the Rams are in need of a major overhaul.
I thought this team really struck
out in the draft. I like Chris
Long and think he will be a fantastic player. He may be the only player on this roster in three years from
now. Avery and King were real
reaches in my opinion.
The Rams will do better in 2008,
just because their skill position players should stay healthy and they have the
offense to score. That still
means 10 losses and another top 10 pick in 2008.
St Louis Rams’ Record: 6-10 – NFC West 3rd Place;
No Playoffs
4) San
Francisco 49ers
07 Record: 5-11
Points Scored: 219 (32nd)
Points Allowed: 364 (20th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 124-132
(.484) (18th in NFL)
Strengths: Patrick Willis had as good of a rookie
year as I can remember from a defensive rookie. He had 174 tackles, including back-to-back 18 tackle games
against Arizona and Carolina and a 20-tackle game against Tampa Bay. Rarely is a rookie able to come into
the NFL in his first year and put up those kinds of numbers. When you consider how little help he
had around him it was a very impressive start to what I expect will be a great
career.
The 49ers have some nice pieces on
defense. I already mentioned
Willis. He is a player the defense
can build around. Kentwan Balmer
was a nice first round pick that should give them help at defensive tackle. Manny Lawson is a young star in the
making that was limited to 2 games last season. If he can come back healthy that will help the defense. Nate Clements gives them a corner to
build the secondary around and Michael Lewis is a good safety. Walt Harris gives them a good
second corner.
The defense struggled to stop
people, because they got no help from the offense. Turnovers and a lack of yardage put the 49ers defense
against their backs in 2007. This
defense rarely played with a big lead.
While this defense will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens they need
a better offense to realize their full potential.
On offense, Frank Gore took a step
back in 2007 with injuries. He had
1,102 yards and 5 touchdowns. They
were hoping for the 1,695 and 8 touchdowns he gave them in 2006. With the passing game the 49ers have in
place they will need him to get back to his 2006 numbers if they want to win
more than 5 games in 2008. DeShaun
Foster was a very good signing that should give them good depth at the running
back position.
Mike Martz has been brought in to
fix the offense. Issac Bruce was a
good signing as he is familiar with the system and can help mentor the younger
guys. Vernon Davis has all the
tools to be an All-Pro Tight End.
It will be interesting to see how Martz utilizes his talent, given his
history of not using tight ends in his pass heavy offensive scheme.
Weaknesses: This was not the worst offense I ever
saw. The 2006 Oakland Raiders and
their 168 points scored take that honor.
49er fans will remind me their 2005 product may have been worse than
2007. But this offense was so bad
on so many levels. The offense scored
more than 20 points on just two occasions (21 against Tampa Bay and 37 against
Arizona). When you consider Tampa
played their backups most of that game you can understand why this team
struggled to win games in 2007.
Their offensive production was horrific.
In my opinion Alex Smith is a major
bust. Part of that is because he
plays in a new offensive system every year. Part of the reason is that he plays so bad that he helps the
offensive coordinator get fired every year. To label a guy a bust at 24 years old may seem premature to
some people. However, he is
entering his 4th year.
There gets to be a point where a guy is no longer a young player, but
rather just a bad player. He has a
career 63.5 QB rating in 30 career starts. He had 2 touchdown throws in 7 starts in 2007. The game appears to be played at a
speed that is too fast for him at a time when it should have already slowed
down. It will be interesting to
see if the 49ers go with Shaun Hill or if they give Alex Smith the entire
season to show if he has what it takes to play in this league.
The 49ers don’t have much in the
way of targets. Bruce is an
upgrade, but his best days are clearly behind him. Bryant Johnson has been a 3rd receiver the
majority of his career. It remains
to be seen if he can carry an offense. Battle and Lelie are not players that have proven they
can contribute on offense. This is
a very thin receiving core, which does not allow Martz to run the offense he
would like to run.
Prediction: There just aren’t a lot
of good things to say about this team right now. It amazes me that a team that was so successful in the 80s
and 90s has fallen on such hard times.
Even if Joe Montana and Steve Young seems like ages ago, Jeff Garcia and
TO does not. The 49ers went 22-10
in 2001 and 2002. They made the
playoffs both season. Since then
7-9 is the best they have done.
Mike Nolan is a good defensive
coordinator that just hasn’t been able to get an offense in place. Part of that is Alex Smith. That was the quarterback the 49ers drafted
in his rookie campaign. Whether it
is Nolan’s fault that Smith hasn’t developed or Smith’s fault that Nolan’s
offenses can’t score is an interesting debate. It is most likely a little of both. The 49ers have finished last in the NFL
in yards gained 2 out of his 3 years, so it couldn’t be much worse than it is
right now. This team has very
little offensive firepower.
I think Gore and the defense give
them a chance to win a few games.
I like the fact they play the AFC East and the Rams twice. That gives them a chance to be
competitive in some of their games.
The bottom line though is that you need offense to win in the NFL and
the 49ers just don’t have enough of it to compete week in and week out. Their defense is solid, but not like
the 2005 Bears where it can carry a nonexistent offense. I look for more of the same in
2008. I think the 49ers finish
4-12, end the Mike Nolan era, and look forward to their next rebuilding
project.
San Francisco 49ers’ Record: 4-12 – NFC West 4th Place;
No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
I have maintained that the NFL is the best way to build your team into an NFL Champion. Teams year after year throw around dollars foolishly and waste draft picks in an attempt for a quick fix. Rarely does that type of strategy work.
Some teams definitely benefited from the opening weekend of free agency. Here would be my winners and losers:
5 Winners
1) Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL. Not only were they able to land the most sought after free agency, but also they were able to add a player that should succeed in their system. While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. The other thing I like about the move is that it makes them stronger against a rival. The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of weapons in the passing game. Green Bay has a lot of good wide receivers. The Saints have a strong passing offense. This move allows the Eagles to either keep Shepherd, Brown, and Samuel to form a terrific cornerback core and will allow them to cover those passing offenses. It also gives them the flexibility to trade Shepherd and acquire additional draft picks. The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a ####.
2) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. However, considering the Browns don’t have a first round pick this year anyway they didn’t have a lot of flexibility to dominate this draft anyway. What they did do is improve their defensive line with younger players. Corey Williams will be 28 years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29 years old. Stallworth will be 28 years old in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. These players should be relevant for years to come. The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency. While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it be acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. If these guys can fit into Cleveland’s system the Browns may have gone a long way to making themselves a contender in the AFC North.
3) New Orleans Saints – The Saints hit the ground running in free agency to improve their defense. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets play. If he can remerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27 years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Devery Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense. I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season.
4) New York Giants – People will be surprised that I have the Giants here considering they lost 3 players on their defense. The reason I liked what the Giants did is they didn’t fall into the trap of trying to overpay to keep their own players. Wilson signed a 6 year $39 million contract. Mitchell signed a 5 year $17 million contract. Torbor signed with Miami. The Giants would have liked to keep those players but it would have cost them too much to do so. While all those players made key plays in the Super Bowl run the heart of the defense was the front 4. That is still there. By not hitting the panic button Reese has given his club a chance to improve through the draft. His vision paid off last season and I expect him to do more of the same this season. While it may hurt his team in the short run it won’t hurt him as much as it will the Raiders who severely overpaid for Wilson’s services.
5) Green Bay Packers – Here is why I put the Packers on the list. They handled the Corey Williams situation about as well as anyone could. The Packers were loaded with depth at defensive tackle. They drafted Harrell in the first round last season. They have Pickett and Jolly. Jenkins plays on the inside in passing situations. They had no room for Corey Williams. Yet they applied the franchise tag and were able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy they selected in the 6th round in 2004. Not a bad return on that investment. The Packers now have a lot of flexibility. If there is a player they really want in the draft they can trade up and get that player without sacrificing their entire draft. They can trade down and acquire additional picks. To be able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy that no longer fit in their plans was a great way to open the free agency weekend. The Packers are never a big player in free agency anyway. Thompson has to be ecstatic to add a 2nd round pick to his draft arsenal.
5 Losers
1) New England Patriots – I know the Patriot way. We don’t Rebuild we just Reload. They don’t overpay for people. But consider what they have lost. Samuel was signed by the Eagles and #### was signed by the Saints. That is a huge blow to their secondary. They also may lose Eugene Wilson to the Titans. At least they still have 35-year-old Rodney Harrison. They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin. They have suffered a lot of losses on defense. They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary blown up. Then you have to look at the offense. Faulk is allegedly getting high and smoking weed everyday. Stallworth was signed by the Browns. Moss has not yet resigned. There are reports he is mad at the Patriots and that the negotiations have hit a snag. He has been rumored to go everywhere from Dallas to Green Bay to Denver. If they lose both Stallworth and Moss they are basically in the same situation they were entering last season with linebackers that are now 2 years older. We’ll see how Welker fares without those other two drawing coverage. The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for. That philosophy will be tested as much as ever this offseason. They have lost a lot of talent. While the Patriots are still the favorite to win the AFC East they will probably find it much harder to win with the ease they showed in 2007.
2) New York Jets – A lot of people have the Jets in the winner column. I disagree. Faneca agreed Saturday on a five-year, $40 million contract, with $21 million in guaranteed money. That is a lot of money for a guy that will be 32 in September. While it may upgrade them in the short term the cap consequence could be enormous. He is great in run blocking but is average in pass protection. They probably could have kept Pete Kendall around last year for far less money. It just doesn’t make sense for that much money. The Kris Jenkins trade was stupid. The Jets gave up a 3rd and 5th round pick to the Panthers for a guy that has missed the 2004 and 2005 seasons. While he has been healthy in 2006 and 2007 he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2002 and 2003. The Jets then decided that they needed to give Jenkins a raise to the tune of a five-year contract worth $35 million, including $20 million in guaranteed money. That’s a big gamble for a 29-year old player with that injury history. We’ll see if the $41 million the Jets gave in guaranteed contracts actually pays off beyond 2008 or 2009.
3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million. He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed. I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season. He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle. Then they signed safety Gibril Wilson to a $39 dollar contract. I don’t see the Raiders defense being any better in 2008 with these two moves and they broke the bank to do it. The only smart thing the Raiders did this offseason was allowing Joey Porter to walk and not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him. As long as Al Davis continues to make moves like this the Commitment to Excellence will only be a slogan.
4) San Francisco 49ers – I liked the signing of Isaac Bruce. It gives the 49ers a veteran presence at WR and someone that is familiar with the Mike Martz system. Adding DeShaun Foster was a solid move. He is good insurance for Gore. But they destroyed all the good things they did by signing a Bengal defender. The six-year, $45 million deal that the 49ers signed with Justin Smith reportedly includes $20 million guaranteed. That is a waste of salary cap space. Justin Smith was an above average player on a bad defense. He has only 43.5 sacks in 7 seasons. His career high is 8.5 sacks his rookie year. He had 2 sacks in 16 games last season. He is a 4-3 end that is switching to a 3-4. That might not translate, although you would think he could get more than 2 sacks. I can’t see that investment paying off. It appears the 49ers have learned nothing from their 2007 spending spree that did little to bring more wins to the table. The 49ers would have been well served to invest in other areas.
5) Minnesota Vikings – The Bears did good to concentrate their free agency dollars on Briggs and not Berrian. The Vikings would have been wise to do the same thing. The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money, which makes him the fourth-highest paid receiver in the league. He is hardly the 4th best receiver in the league. This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play. The problem is the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield throws. Furthermore, he drops the ball too much. I don’t think the Vikings will get what they hoped out of this investment. The loss will hurt the Bears in that they don’t have any proven receiving talent, but it won’t help the Vikings to waste all that cap space on a receiver that has never had 1,000 yards in a season. Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams $33 million, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money. He played on the vaunted Cincinnati pass defense last season. He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career. I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.
That’s my wrap up of the opening weekend in free agency. There are still a lot more developments to come, mainly what is to become of Randy Moss and will Brett Favre decide to hang it up after a 17 year NFL Hall of Fame career. There is never a dull moment in the NFL. To keep up with all the developments make sure you check out The Fantasy Football Maniaxs for additional articles by myself and other talented writers:
