This is my sixth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until
training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries
prior to the opening of training camp.
However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency
period and the draft. My plan is
to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in
the NFL. Here is my planned schedule. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest
rivalries in the NFL. The Bears,
Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises and each have a
storied history. The Minnesota
Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but have assimilated well into
the division’s rivalries. This
year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall of Fame QB in Green
Bay will not be taking the field.
The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre
became their quarterback. The
Packers won 7 divisional titles in his tenure with Green Bay and won over 60%
of their divisional games. Which
team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very
interesting development.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC
North.
1) Minnesota
Vikings
07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 365(15th)
Points Allowed: 311 (12th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in
NFL)
Strengths: The Minnesota Vikings were the best in
the league at running the football and they were the best in the league at
stopping the run.
Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous
season. He rushed for 1,341 yards
and 12 touchdowns despite only starting 9 games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Included in that mammoth total was a
296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for
rushing yards in a single game. He
also had a 224- yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be having more consistency and doing
better with 8 men in the box. In
his final 4 games he was held to 54 carries and a 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards
per carry. Part of that was his
coming back from injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more
than they did in the first half of the season.
Chester Taylor also had a fine
season. He rushed for 844 yards
and 7 touchdowns. Minnesota and
Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.
While Peterson and Taylor are good,
the line is one of the best in the business. McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line
and Birk is a tremendous center.
It is imperative that McKinnie not be suspended for his disorderly
conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami
courtroom.
On defense the Vikings may have the
best front 4 in football. Pat and
Kevin Williams are two mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely
well. New to the mix is Jared
Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they
sorely missed last season. That
should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd ranked pass defense.
On special teams Ryan Longwell is a
steady and reliable kicker. It
remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return
man.
Weaknesses: For as good as the Vikings were running
the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad passing the ball and
stopping the pass.
Let’s start with the pass
defense. It was ranked 32nd
last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to
help at the safety spot. Finally
they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of
play and Allen give them the pass rush they have lacked the pass defense should
be much improved in 2008. They
forced a lot of turnovers in 2007.
Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.
That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in
pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing
touchdowns. They got 3rd
receiver type production out of their number one and number two receivers. Darrell Bevell said this about the
Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings 3rd year QB, “"He's been
outstanding this offseason," Bevell said. "He's been in here watching,
studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he
needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."
Jackson is the key to the 2008
season for the Vikings and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their pass
game. Jackson progressed well in
year 2 and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs and possibly
advance to a Super Bowl they need him to progress even more.
Even if Jackson is improving, the
Vikings still have a weak receiving core.
Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven number one
receiver even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to
develop. Bobby Wade and Robert
Ferguson are journeymen players.
The Vikings have a lot of #2 and #3 receivers, but nobody that screams
dominant number one guy. Berrian
and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.
Prediction: I think the Vikings are
in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in
Peterson. The defensive line is
probably the best in the NFL. They
have a great offensive line. All
the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.
The question mark is the
quarterback and the passing game.
If Jackson were a proven commodity I would say the Vikings would be the
favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is they were 1st in rush offense and
defense a year ago and that got them 8-8.
The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far
as he takes them.
The schedule looks tougher than it
really is. The Vikings caught a
number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers
are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that
record. They drew no cold weather
sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally
struggle with. They face the
easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at
Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16 before closing with the NY Giants at
home. That bodes well for them
taking control of the division with a late season surge.
I look for the Vikings to make the
playoffs for the first time since 2004.
I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their
franchise history and their first divisional title since their NFC Central
crown back in 2000.
2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120
(.531) (11th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Packers had an unbelievably
balanced team in 2007. They
finished 4th in points scored and 6th in points
allowed. Favre had an impressive
season, finishing 2nd in the MVP race. Grant had the most yards of any back in the NFL not named
Tomlinson in the second half of the regular season. Mason Cosby finished 2nd in the Pro Bowl voting
at kicker. Other than at Chicago,
Ryan did a decent job of punting.
Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in
that regard.
There were few changes that needed to
be made and people assumed #4 would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008
and now one player leaving has created a lot of questions. It is hard to judge the Packers 2008
chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should
still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front 7 and the corners.
The Packers have an extremely deep
defensive line. Kampan is a great
pass rusher that supports the run well.
Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing
downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell and
others provide good depth.
The linebackers support the run
well, but they struggle to cover the pass and in particular the tight end. That should improve simply by not
facing Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey this season. Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule and they
need to improve in that area.
Barnett is always solid and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.
The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best
corner duo in the NFL. They are
extremely physical. While they
draw a lot of interference calls they make up for it with picks, stopping 3rd
downs, and wearing down receivers.
However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up and down first year starting, but ended up
being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December and was lights out in
the playoffs. He needs to play
like he did at the end of the year.
The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and
dime packages. They need players
to step up there.
All in all this is a very young
defensive unit other than the corners.
This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the
offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.
Weaknesses: It’s been a long time since we said the
offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Pack finds themselves in 2008. I don’t want to come across as having
the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year and I like a lot of things
the Packers have going on offense.
But I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the
Packers did. To assume a 4th
year QB that has yet to start a NFL game can just step in and keep the ball
rolling is not realistic. It is
not fair to Aaron Rodgers.
With regards to Rodgers, he may
very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packer fan I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to
say he is definitely going to succeed.
Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing. I like how he has progressed in making reads and his command
of the offense since his rookie year.
That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability. The injuries have been freakish in
nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all time most durable
starting quarterback’s backup.
Brian Braum is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense
as a rookie.
The receivers are solid and the
strength of the offense. They are
great athletes and ranked number one in yards after the catch. Driver is a
veteran presence, Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and Jones, Martin, and
Nelson all provide good depth. Lee
had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help
Rodgers make the transition.
Remember that the yards after the
catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of #4’s
ability to throw the deep ball.
Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect
Rodger’s deep ball. I expect those guys to be solid and put up good numbers,
but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were
in 2007.
The offensive line is
interesting. The tackles are good,
but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed and became a
strength of the team. Part of the
reason that the Packers could go so many 4 and 5 wide receiver sets is because
of #4’s command of the offense and his ability to get rid of the ball
quickly. The Packers surrendered
only 19 sacks, tied for 3rd in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more
4 and 5 receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at
receiver.
Finally, we get to the running
back. Who is the real Ryan
Grant? Is he the back that had 201
yards and 3 touchdowns against Seattle or the one that had 29 yards and 0
touchdowns against the Giants? 1
would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. 10 games are not enough to anoint a guy
a star running back. The Packers
are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers and
he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see
from defenses. He is perfect for
that zone-blocking scheme and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and 7-9
touchdowns.
Prediction: I find it entertaining
how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without
Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality
that the Packers have a great young team and Rodgers is just ready to step in
based on a good half against Dallas.
Since 1992 the Packers have
finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other
than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006.
In 2007 the Packers finished 2nd in passing yards, 4th
in points scored, 6th in touchdown passes, and 11th in
interceptions thrown.
This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Montana and his 16
touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring
from the Dolphins in 1999. Those
guys are All Time Greats, but were very average at the end of their
career. Even if you take out the
fact the Packers are losing an All-Time Great player and leader, they are still
losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important
position.
There are still a lot of good
players on the team. I don’t
expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show they can still win and
will be motivated to do well without #4.
There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.
Had Favre come back, I would have
thought 10-6 or 11-5 would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule.
The Packers have a lot of tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at
New Orleans, Indy, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. I think you are going to see games where they amaze and
games where they really struggle.
A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is a
realistic expectation. They should
be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009 if their young players continue to
grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions
at the offensive tackles and cornerback.
Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8 –
NFC North 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) Detroit
Lions
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 346 (16th)
Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117
(.543) (10th in NFL)
Strengths: The Lions had a great passing attack
under passing guru Mike Martz. He
is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in
the division and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald
give him a lot of weapons. Roy
Williams is a solid target and Calvin Johnson is a freak and should have a much
better 2nd year now that he has experience and is healthy. The Lions should be able to throw the
ball and put points up on the board.
Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked 2nd in 2006 and 1st in 2007
in that regard. He also has to
take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.
This was a team that started the
2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7.
When they were winning their passing offense was not the only thing
carrying them. They were good at
forcing turnovers early in the season.
The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL,
which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished 9th in sacks with 37. That made up for their 31st
ranked pass defense. Fernando
Bryant is no longer with the team.
Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that
regard.
Shaun Rodgers is gone from the
defensive line. It will be
interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd
in the NFL with him. Corry Redding
and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but never
really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but
need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks there wasn’t
much this defense did right in 2007.
Jason Hanson is still the kicker
and a mainstay in Detroit. He has
been with the Lions since 1992 and is considered one of the more reliable
kickers in the NFL.
Weaknesses: This team really lacked a running game. They ranked 32nd in rushing
attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that. Keep in mind that he coached Marshall
Faulk and Steven Jackson in St Louis.
While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful
backs in his system. Part of the
Lions inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor
offensive line, and defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.
The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones
and TJ Duckett and retained Tatum Bell.
They drafted Kevin Smith in the 3rd round. They are also instituting a
zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL. The Lions still figure to be weak
running the ball in 2008. Zone
blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good nor does it make bad running
backs great. I watched Green Bay
make that transition and it took over a year to see results. Bell had good games in a zone-blocking
scheme in Denver. He needs to step
up his production in 2008. It will
be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split
time.
The offensive line needs to improve
on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007.
That is one reason why the Lions throw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people
down field. When you finish last
in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and
give up the 3rd most sacks there aren’t many positives to look at on
the offensive line. That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus
in the first round. He will be
asked to step in immediately.
On defense they have to hope the
people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their
front 7 to stop the run and create pressure. Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in
Denver. Until the Lions improve on
stopping the run it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out
of their secondary.
Prediction: The Lions were a team
that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that
team would crash in the second half of the season and they did just that. Matt Millen has proven time and time
again that he cannot draft well and that he is unable to put his coaches in a
position to succeed. There are
good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.
The Lions have a good passing
offense and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take
pressure of that offense. Their
receivers will cause problems for team and I expect a decent offensive showing
from the Lions.
What I also expect is they will
struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to
give them fits with their defense.
Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in
division games. What it amounts to
is Kitna predicting 10 wins and reality delivering another 6 or 7 win season
and another year of missing the playoffs.
Detroit Lions’ Record: 6-10 – NFC North 3rd Place;
No Playoffs
4) Chicago
Bears
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 348 (16th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120
(.531) (11th (t) in NFL)
Strengths:The Bears have always had offensive
issues. What they traditionally
relied on was a very strong defense.
In 2005 they finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd
in yards allowed. In their
2006 Super Bowl season they finished 3rd and 5th in those
areas. They have been one of the
best teams at forcing turnovers.
That has allowed the less than stellar offense to work with a short
field and control the clock with the run.
That never panned out last
season. The Bears offense was
still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th
in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher
was hurt and did not play up to his standards. Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.
The defensive line is still
strong. Tommy Harris is a
fantastic defensive tackle. Alex
Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a
replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.
The linebackers are still great
too. Urlacher is one of the best
in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy; as he did sign the long-term
deal he had been looking for the last couple seasons. He is a 3-time Pro Bowler.
In the secondary Brown, Tillman,
Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning and McBride give the Bears a number of people
for coverage and making big plays.
They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that they will be able to force turnovers,
which is a must for a Cover 2 team.
That will help offense produce enough in short field situations to give
the Bears defense leads and rest.
If that happens there is still enough defensive talent to carry this
team to the playoffs.
Last, but certainly not least are
the special teams. Devin
Hester. He is the Bears best
weapon at this point. After just 2
seasons he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the
NFL. He makes a lot of big plays
in the return game and as a wide receiver. The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver
in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special teams
specialist. Finally, Robbie Gould
is a solid kicker. The Bears
probably have the best special teams in the NFL.
Weaknesses: The problem is there just isn’t a lot
of talent on offense. As bad as it
was last year it is worse in 2008.
That starts with the quarterbacks.
Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown they are capable of
leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as
a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their 06 Super Bowl
run. They need one of them to
emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will. The Bears did nothing to sign a
quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.
Then we get to receiver. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin
Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis.
None of those guys are acceptable #3 receivers on average passing teams
at this point. It is either possession
receivers or home run hitters.
There is no receiver that is a complete package in the group. The fact that two of them must start is
not good news for the passing game.
Clark and Olson are quality tight ends and the best targets this team
has in the passing game.
Then there is the offensive
line. Fred Miller was released
this summer at tackle. They hope
Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are
all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster
at 29. The line is starting
to get old and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those
positions. Fred Miller was not the
only thing holding that line back.
Finally, there is the running back
spot. Benson has been waived after
2 arrests in 5 weeks. Adrian
Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out below average backfield. As a whole, the Bears offense is among
the most unproven in the NFL.
There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team
strength. It should finish among
the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.
Prediction: I know Bears fans will
point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average
offense. That they went 11-5 and
won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense in 2005. The feeling in Chicago is that defense
wins championships and the Bears have the defense.
I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have
started to get older. Urlacher is
starting to have health issues and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two this defense becomes
average very quickly. Last season
the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team and they really struggled as a team
to consistently win. The Bears
first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17 after they had been eliminated from
playoff contention.
This year the offense is even
worse. Benson, Berrian, and
Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears
have. Griese is no longer around
if Grossman struggles. There are a
lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they
were in 2005 and 2006.
The Bears get a very tough
schedule. The Colts, Jags, and
Titans all have tremendous defenses.
The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are traditionally tough on
defense. That is half their
schedule that they may not score more than 10-14 points per game against. The defense will keep the Bears in
those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many
victories.
The Bears window has closed in my
opinion and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some
younger pieces on defense. Only
time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.
Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11 – NFC North 4th Place;
No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
The NFL is the most followed professional sports league in the United States. It has its own network devoting 24 hours of continuous coverage. ESPN, FOX, CBS, and NBC all have analyst breaking down various teams and players on a daily basis. There is sports talk radio and online coverage. Simply put, the NFL is not suffering from a lack of exposure crisis.
However, a lot of stuff that you watch, hear, and read is simply not true. There are a lot of myths that one person misreports, it gets picked up by a couple other people, and is suddenly reported as fact. Here are the 7 myths that I have heard the most often throughout the season that I want to set the record straight on.
The 6 contenders:
7) Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL – Adrian Peterson is having the best season by a running back in the NFL. Adrian Peterson is the NFL Rookie of the Year. He is not the best running back in the NFL. 9 good games will not give him that title. 2,000 yards this season will not either, although that is probably not possible with the knee injury suffered against Green Bay.
Last I checked the best running back in the NFL resides in San Diego. Since 2001 he has never had less than 1236 yards. He has never had less than 10 touchdowns. Both were in his rookie year. He has a career rush per carry average of 4.5. He caught 100 passes in 2003. He has won an MVP. His name is LT. While Adrian Peterson was breaking the single game rushing record, LT passed Jim Brown on the all time list for rushing touchdowns. LT is an all time great. A first ballot Hall of Famer. Adrian Peterson is the lone front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
In today’s fast food paced culture, we like to throw terms like Greatest around after 3 quarters of good football. We are all about the moment. Adrian Peterson is having a great year. Now he has to have 5 more to be in the LT discussion. LT is the best running back in the league, hands down. Until he starts having 700 yard 5 touchdown seasons, it will remain that way.
6) The Denver Broncos have the best pair of corners in the NFL – This isn’t true either. I won’t go as far as to say Champ Bailey isn’t the best corner in the league. One year playing with a bad run defense will not change that. However, the best pair of cornerbacks in the NFL resides in Green Bay, WI. Denver is ranked 11 slots higher in pass defense. They give up only 197.3 yards per game to the Packers 213.3. The main reason for that difference is that teams are too busy gashing the Bronco’s NFL worst run defense to pass the ball that many times.
Pass yards gained is not the entire story in evaluating cornerbacks. Teams have not had to challenge the Broncos cornerbacks. Bailey and Bly haven’t played as well as years past. James Jones and Greg Jennings were able to beat those corners deep in the same game. 79 and 82 yards deep. While both are fast, neither would be considered track stars. Then Kitna passed for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns and no picks in the Detroit blowout. Big Ben had 4 touchdown passes against Denver this season. There has definitely been something missing from the Denver duo’s game this season.
The Packers play a very unique style of football. In an era where Zone Blitzing and Cover 2 is all the rage, the Packers play primarily man-to-man defense. The key thing to look at with the Packers pass defense is that opposing QBs have a rating of 79.8 when facing the Packer defense to the Broncos 93.1. But the most impressive stat is that teams are only completing 57.9 % of their passes on the Packers defense, which is tied with Tennessee for 2nd best in the NFL. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers are better.
The fact is that defenses need the entire unit to succeed. Part of the reason the Packers are doing so well in pass defense is the pressure of the front 4 and the abilities of the linebackers. However, Harris and Woodson are playing with two young safeties that just got younger when Collins went down. When you consider the youth of the safeties and how much solo man to man coverage the Packers play, Al Harris and Charles Woodson are as good of a cornerback duo as any in the NFL, even though people don’t talk about it a lot.
It isn’t like these two just started playing well 8 games ago. Charles Woodson was great in Oakland, suffered through injuries, poor teams, and underachievement. He has rejuvenated his career in Green Bay. It is a crime that Al Harris has not been voted to a Pro Bowl in his career. These guys deserve a lot more recognition. That can be hard on a team whose headlines are dominated by the play of Brett Favre. While there are plenty of bigger names at the cornerback position, none are playing it as well as the duo in Green and Gold.
5) Vince Young is a winning QB - False. Vince Young plays with a winning defense. Vince Young has passed for 4 touchdowns and 10 picks this season. He has a QB rating of 62.2. To put that in perspective, his completion percentage is 60.9. I cannot think of an instance where a QB had a completion percentage and QB rating that close.
He has one game over 200 yards passing this season, which was the 257 yards in a blowout win by the Jags. Two of his four touchdowns came in the Saints game. Supporters will point to his strong running play making up for the lack of passing. His season high rushing is 57 yards and he has only gotten over 30 yards in 2 of his 8 starts. He has only 2 rushing touchdowns.
Because of the game he had against USC in the Rose Bowl, his rookie campaign with a team picked to win 4 games, and the Madden Cover; he is being hyped as the next big thing. He is a great leader. The Titans players believe they can win any game with him on the field. He has the intangibles that many feel Eli Manning lacks. While Young may end up being a capable starting NLF QB, he is not one right now.
Part of the problem is his weapons. He doesn’t have a go to receiver or an All-Pro Running back. To his credit he is at his best when the game matters. However, this guy still has light years to go before he is an elite signal caller. The Titans are 6-3 because of their defense. A defense that is in the top 7 in points allowed, yards allowed, pass yards allowed, and rush yards allowed. Albert Haynesworth is the MVP of this team. How did that run D look without him in their on Sunday?
I do realize that statistics are not the sole measure of a player. However, he has escaped a lot of criticism so far. Rex Grossman was run out of Chicago for basically the same thing. Rex Grossman went 13-3 last season and people were calling for his job all season. If someone can explain to me the difference between Vince Young and Rex Grossman I would love to hear it.
4) Tom Brady is the MVP of the NFL – Don’t get me wrong, I understand why people think Brady is the MVP. MVP means different things to different people. In my opinion Tom Brady is the Offensive Player of the Year. I am aware of all the numbers. 2686 yards. 33 touchdowns. 4 interceptions. I also understand that if Brady goes down that Matt Cassel has no chance of leading this team anywhere in the playoffs. However, the Patriots could have a better backup if they chose to devote salary cap space to it. They have chosen not to. The measure of an MVP is how many other starters in the league could you plug into that position and have a reasonable chance of duplicating that result. It is not Who Has the Worst Backup Award.
To me the biggest difference in the 2006 Patriot and 2007 Patriots is not the play of Tom Brady. I’ve seen him there the last 5 years. While he has been a Pro Bowl QB he has not been this. He didn’t suddenly figure out how to put up big numbers this offseason. The difference is Randy Moss. Randy Moss is the new item in the equation that we have never seen in the Patriots scheme. He proved to be a difference maker with the Vikings. How different did the Minnesota offense look in 1997 to 1998? What was the change in the equation in that team? Trust me, it wasn’t the addition of Cunningham at QB. Culpepper had 39 touchdowns in 2004. How has that offense or Culpepper looked since Moss left?
Brady gets to throw jump balls, into double coverage, and can pass up on an open Ben Watson in the endzone. Randy Moss makes that happen. Randy Moss is the player that stretches out the defense and opens up everything underneath. You could probably go down to Jay Cutler, Jeff Garcia, or Phillip Rivers and still have a reasonable chance of scoring points and winning games with the current Patriots roster. Not 33 touchdowns and 4 interceptions good. But good enough to be a playoff contender with an offense that can put up points.
If you take Randy Moss of this team the only receiver you could replace him with and get similar results is TO. If he goes down, this offense suddenly lacks the explosiveness it has generated in the first 9 games. My 3 MVPs would be 1) Randy Moss, 2) Brett Favre, and 3) Adrian Peterson. Those are the 3 players that have produced the biggest numbers that would be impossible for any other player to step in and have the same effect on that ball club. How many other QBs could be 8-1 with a 32nd ranked rush offense? How many other Running Backs could have 1,000 yards with that cast of characters on offense? Those are the 3 MVP front-runners in the NFL. Tom Brady is the Offensive Player of the Year, not the MVP.
3) The AFC is the Powerhouse Conference and the NFC is the Ugly Stepchild - This is getting old too. This was the case the last 2-3 years ago. Two 8-8 wildcards in 2004 were the beginning of this trend. Another 8-8 wildcard last season that ended the season 2-6 also contributed to this reality. The NFC was a mediocre conference in 2004-2006. There were years where the two best teams that missed the playoffs in the AFC could have beaten the #3 through #6 seeds in the NFC.
The fact is that the NFC has closed the gap overall. The New England Patriots are head and shoulders above the NFC. They are also head and shoulders above the AFC.
Dallas and Green Bay are very talented and could probably give New England a run for their money. At least as good of a run as Pittsburgh. Indy is confusing because they have so many players going down. With the rosters as is Dallas and Green Bay would both give New England a better game this week. Tennessee and Jacksonville are 6-3 in the AFC. That isn’t necessarily a compliment for the conference. The AFC West is littered with 4-5 and 5-4 teams. The AFC East other than New England is disgraceful. That includes 5-4 Buffalo and their 13-10 win over the powerhouse Miami Dolphins. Three games against the Jets and Bills have inflated their record.
In 2005 the AFC was 34-26 against the NFC. The 6 AFC playoff teams went 20-4 against the NFC as opposed to the NFC playoff teams going 12-12 against the AFC. In 2006 the AFC was 40-24 against the NFC.
The NFC and AFC are 20-20 against one another this season. Part of that is because the NFC North and NFC East are playing the AFC East and AFC West. Still Arizona beat Pittsburgh. New Orleans destroyed Jacksonville. The 6 teams that would represent the AFC in the playoffs this season if the playoffs began next week have gone 13-5 against the NFC. The six NFC teams have gone 11-5 against the AFC.
While New England will be favored against any NFC team they face, they will against any AFC team as well. The fact is that the NFC as a whole has made a lot of strides this season to make this a two-conference league again. A lot of these claims of AFC supremacy are founded in stereotypes created by New England and Indy’s dominant starts and the last few seasons of inter conference competition. It is not founded in what has been going on in inter conference play in 2007.
2) Eli Manning is having a breakout season - Who has more passing yards, Joey Harrington or Eli Manning? Who has a higher completion percentage? More completions? Higher QB rating? Yards per attempt? If you answered yes to Joey Harrington on each statistic you are correct.
Now who has the 15th ranked scoring and 15th ranked yardage defense and who has the 12th ranked scoring defense and the 7th ranked yardage defense? Who has the 20th ranked rush offense as opposed to the 6th ranked rush offense? Who has Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, and Brandon Jacobs? Who has Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and an aging Warrick Dunn?
My point is that the media is portraying 2007 as Eli Manning’s breakout season. The validation we have been waiting for that he is an elite QB. I would rather have 15-20 QBs in the NFL over him. Just because he shares the same last name as Archie and Peyton does not make him a good QB. I have never been witness to a more over hyped team or an over hyped player.
The three best games on the Giants schedule have seen them lose by a combined score of 111-68 or by an average of 14.3 points per game. All three contests were lost by double digits. Two of those games were in New York. Their 6 game winning streak came by a combined score of 152-79 or by 12.17 points per game. The problem is those 6 games came against Washington, Philadelphia, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, San Fran 49ers, and Miami Dolphins. Teams with a combined winning percentage of 15-40 or a winning percentage of .230. When you consider that the Jets only victory is over the Dolphins and the Falcons have a victory over the 49ers it is really bad. There has never been a team this hyped over beating teams of such little consequence in recent memory.
As for Eli Manning. In the opener against the Giants he had 312 yards and 4 touchdowns against one pick. Since then he has one 300-yard game against Atlanta. He has no games with more than 2 touchdown passes. His highest rating is 87.9 against Atlanta. He has 4 out of 8 games where he hasn’t gotten to 200 yards. He has 10 passing touchdowns and 1 rushing touchdown compared to10 picks to go along with 3 lost fumbles. His season QB rating is 78.6, which includes the first Cowboys game.
What am I missing here? I would love to have any NFL expert or New York Giants fan explain to me why this is being labeled as Eli Manning’s break out season. Explain to me why he can’t play better with a top 10 run game and two Pro Bowl caliber targets. Why were the Giants being labeled as arguably the second best team in the NFC heading into that game? Why were the Giants picked by anyone to beat the Cowboys?
While the Giants will probably win 10 games and make the playoffs, this team doesn’t have a shot of beating either Dallas or Green Bay unless those teams beat themselves. They might not even win their first round game. They don’t have a chance of going anywhere in the near future with Eli Manning playing the way he has this season. With him now in his 4th year of playing, it is doubtful if he will ever play better.
But the Winner is: 1) Brett Favre is playing his best football in a decade:
Unless I’m missing something, 3 years is not a decade. His rating this season is comparable to 2001-2004. The Completion percentage and yards are higher. TDs, interception, and QB rating are about the same. The win & loss percentage is going to probably be higher than 03-04, but in the ballpark with 01-02. This is mainly because the Packers have a good defense in 07 like they did in 01-02 and didn’t in 03 and especially 04.
This is the myth that has been created by the poor 2005-2006 seasons. The myth that Brett Favre was an All-Pro QB back in 1995-1997 and that he hasn’t really done a lot since then. That he has been riding his Super Bowl glory for the better part of a decade. The Packers went 44-20 from 2001 to 2004. They won 3 division titles. In 2001 they finished a game back of the 13-3 Chicago Bears. Favre finished 2nd in the MVP race to Kurt Warner in 2001 and 2nd to Rich Gannon in 2002. He had three 30-touchdown seasons. He had 3 seasons with a rating over 90.0. 2002 was a respectable 85.6.
The difference between 1994-1997 and 2001-2004 wasn’t as much Favre’s play as the team’s playoff success. The Packers played in 3 Championship games from 1994 to 1998, 2 Super Bowls, winning one in 1996. From 2001 to 2004 the Packers were 2-4 in the playoffs and played in 0 Conference Championships. Part of that were the 10 interceptions Favre threw against the Rams and Vikings. Part of that was giving up a 4th and 26 to the Eagles. Part of that was a rash of injuries to close the 2002 season that left the team a mash unit against a young and up upcoming team in the Atlanta Falcons. That was when Michael Vick and the Falcons mattered.
Favre made too many bad throws in 2005 and 2006. He didn’t play as well as he should have. Part of that was caused by Favre trying to win games by himself. Part of that were injuries in 2005. Part of that was playing with the youngest team in the league in 2006. Just as Favre did not deserve all the blame in 2005 & 2006, he doesn’t deserve all the credit in 2007. The Packers have a championship level defense. Driver, Jennings, and Jones form one of the best receiving trios in the NFL. Donald Lee is playing amazing at tight end.
However, Favre was not in a witness protection program from 1998 to 2006 and suddenly materialized from a 10-year funk in 2007. He played MVP caliber football from 2001-2004. The numbers of 2005-2006 are making some people forget that. Whether this season ends with the playoffs results of 1995-1997 or the results of 2001-2004 still remains to be seen. However it is a disservice to an amazing career to act like he played bad football from 1999 to 2006. The statistics don’t support that ridiculous position. The people that keep saying that should know better.
What is your favorite myth of the 2007? These were the most obvious myths that I could think of, although with 32 teams there are too many to count. Do you agree with my assessment of the situation? Think that I am dead wrong? Think I missed one all together? Let me know your thoughts.
That was probably the most kick returns I have seen by people not named Devon Hester in a long time. It was an exciting week of NFL action. If I didn’t mention your favorite player or team, it isn’t because I didn’t watch the game or research the game. It’s because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter. Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it. I hereby present to you a recap of the third week in the National Football League.
Standings
AFC East NFC East 1.New England (3-0) 1.Dallas (3-0) 2.NY Jets (1-2) 2.Washington (2-1) 3.Miami (0-3) 3.NY Giants (1-2) 4. Buffalo (0-3) 4.Philadelphia (1-2)
AFC South NFC South 1.Indianapolis (3-0) 1. Carolina (2-1) 2. Houston (2-1) 2. Tampa Bay (2-1) 3. Tennessee (2-1) 3. New Orleans (0-3) 4. Jacksonville (2-1) 4. Atlanta (0-3)
AFC North NFC North 1.Pittsburgh (3-0) 1.Green Bay (3-0) 2. Baltimore (2-1) 2.Detroit (2-1) 3.Cleveland (1-2) 3.Chicago (1-2) 4.Cincinati (1-2) 4.Minnesota (1-2)
AFC West NFC West 1. Denver (2-1) 1. San Fran (2-1) 2. San Diego (1-2) 2. Seattle (2-1) 3. Kansas City (1-2) 3. Arizona (1-2) 4. Oakland (1-2) 4. St Louis (0-3)
MVP of the Week: I would go with three Quarterbacks. In no particular order, Brett Favre who engineered a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Chargers. He went 28 for 45 for 369 yards and 3 touchdowns, against 0 picks. He tied Dan Marino with 420 career touchdown passes. Second, Tom Brady went 23 for 29 with 311 yards, 4 touchdowns and no picks. The Patriots scored 38 points for the third consecutive week. Third, Donovan McNabb, who silenced the HBO story with his play on the field. He led the Eagles to 42 first half points. He went 21 for 26 for 381 yards, 4 touchdowns and no picks. He had a perfect 158.3 QB rating. He probably could have thrown for 600 yards, had the Eagles not stopped throwing the ball in the second half. Honorable mentions to Brian Westbrook, who had 221 rushing and receiving yards and had 3 touchdowns in the first half. Kevin Curtis had 11 catches for 221-yards and 3 touchdowns. He and Westbrook became the first teammates to have 3 touchdowns each in a half. Kevin Curtis and Roy Williams became the first players to have 200-yards receiving in the same game.
Game of the Week: I would go with the game in Lambeau. The game featured two 300- yard passers and 2 QBs that had 3 touchdown passes. The Packers led 17-7, but gave the lead back on two touchdown drives, one at the end of the first half and one at the beginning of the second half. The Packers offense moved the ball to the San Diego goaline in the 4th quarter, but failed to capitalize. They got the ball back, and Brett Favre tied history with his 420th touchdown pass to Greg Jennings. The Packers held on for the victory. Honorable mentions to the Baltimore and Arizona game, which was won by Baltimore 26-23 on a field goal with 4 seconds left in the game. Kurt Warner turned that into an interesting game, and may have created an early season QB controversy in Arizona. Further mentions to Seattle and Cincinnati, which was one by Seattle 24-21 on a touchdown pass in the final minute, Hasselbeck to Burleson.
Loser of the Weak: Bulger, Holt, and Jackson. After St Louis dropped their first two home games, they took the field against Tampa. They lost 24-3. Bulger passed for just 116 yards and had 3 interceptions. Steven Jackson rushed for 115 yards, but failed to crack 4.0 yards per carry and failed to crack the endzone again. He was injured in the 4th quarter. Holt had 63 yards receiving and failed to crack the endzone. The loss dropped St Louis to 0-3. Honorable mentions to Rex Grossman. 195 yards 0 touchdowns and 3 picks in no way to keep your job. Same for Drew Brees and his 4 interceptions and a fumble on Monday night. Same for Matt Leinart, who went 9-20 for 58 yards and failed to score a touchdown. Lee Evans added 1 catch and 7 yards to his season total of 5 receptions for 29 yards. If he keeps up his current pace, he will have 27 catches for 155 yards and 0 touchdowns. Finally Larry Johnson gave us 24 carries for 42 yards. He is averaging 2.8 yards per carry for the season.
The Bay of Pigs: Kansas City and Minnesota gave us a thriller at Arrowhead. Minnesota raced out of the gates to a 10-0 lead. Normally that would be enough to keep the Kansas City offense behind for 2 games. However, Kansas City found their jet fuel and scored 13 unanswered points, including a touchdown pass, which put the Chiefs ahead 13-10. The 3-point lead proved to be too much for the Vikings, who had used up all of their offense in the first half.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs takes the honor this week. The Redskins had a 17-3 lead at the half. The Redskins forgot that you don’t get half a win for leading at the half. The Giants scored 21 unanswered points to take a 24-17 lead. The Redskins put together a late 4th quarter drive and reached the 2-yard line with less than a minute to play and no timeouts. Campbell spiked the ball which I didn’t think was necessary. Then Gibbs sent in the 3 tight end package and left his best player, Clinton Portis on the bench. He called an incomplete pass play to Sellers. Third down produced a Betts run that failed to get to the goaline. The Redskins still had about 25 seconds left. Instead of calling a play and executing it, they rushed to the line with a package that is not used to running no huddle. They never appeared to get in sync. The run went to the left and was stopped short of the goaline. Gibbs did three catastrophic things. 1) He left his best player on the sideline at the most important part of the game. 2) He had a package in the game that was not used to going no huddle, 3) He called a running play on third down with no timeouts and a QB who has not been in that situation before. Campbell clearly looked panic. That caused the 4th down play to fail, because it was poorly executed. While the Giants deserve a pat on the back for their shutout in the second half, this was just as much about how clueless the Redskins looked at the goaline as what the Giants did on the defensive side of the ball. The smart play would have been to have Portis in the game. Gibbs could have either run him or run play action for Cooley, a top tier tight end playing against a team that can’t cover the tight end. Instead they lost with their best player on the bench.
Hospital Visit: Cedric Killings had a very serious neck injury in the loss to the Colts. While he is able to stand, he did suffer a fractured neck. Shaun Alexander has a cracked wrist, but is expected to play. #### and Cutler were injured in the Broncos loss to the Jaguars. Their availability is unclear. Losman looks to be out for a couple weeks with a knee injury. Delhomme doesn’t not need surgery on his arm, but his status is up in the air. McAllister was injured in the Saints loss. It is feared he tore his ACL and is out for the season.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Something is wrong in San Diego, and it is not Norv Turner – The problem is the receivers and the offensive line. LT isn’t gaining yards because he has 3 guys within a few yards of him at the line of scrimmage. He has to run sideways very early in the play. I am surprised he has as many yards as he does. The line is simply getting blown off the point of attack. The second problem is that no one respects the receivers and are crowding the box to stop Gates and LT. Norv Turner is getting the blame, because he is the different part of this San Diego equation from last season. However, the Chargers front office was complacent with last season’s success, and did nothing to sure up the weaknesses they had last season, mainly finding receivers. While Davis was a first round pick, rookie receivers don’t produce consistent results, which has been evident in Davis’s case to start the season. While I think Norv Turner is a very average coach, he can’t block defenders. The Chargers need to stop feeling sorry for themselves and use their immense talents to win football games.
2) St Louis and New Orleans are the biggest disappointment in the NFL – I can’t believe I thought these teams would have the two most explosive offenses in the NFC. The Saints forgot how to block or throw the ball more than 20 yards down field. The Rams can’t score any points. These were teams that had divisional aspirations, and in New Orleans’ case Super Bowl aspirations. They don’t look like they could win the Go.com Bowl, much less the Super Bowl. The Saints are especially disappointing, because they have lost all offensive creativity. They throw 3-yard passes to Bush and Johnson, and run up the middle with McAllister. There is no offensive creativity and is showing in production. This team needs the bye more than ever. Tear up the playbook and start over. Start drawing up plays that will stretch the field, and work on your blocking so Brees has time to make those throws.
3) As a loyal Packer fan, Da Bears need to keep playing Rex Grossman – All joking aside, Lovie Smith has quite a decision to make. Grossman has a 45 QB rating on the season and is playing awful. The Bears made a catastrophic decision not to upgrade the QB position in the offseason. The alternatives are not very promising either. Go watch tape of 05 if you are really that crazy about putting Orton in the game. As for Griese, why did Denver, Miami, and Tampa Bay release him? The fact of the matter is that as bad as Rex Grossman is playing, he probably gives the Bears the best chance to win, this season. The problem is that people on the offensive side of the ball are using Grossman as the scapegoat for the offense not performing. The offensive line play is horrible, Benson is playing horrible, and the receivers are not getting open consistently. They drop too many balls the few times they do get open. If they continue to play the way they have no QB is going to be successful in the Bear’s offense. Grossman has become the scapegoat for this offense’s shortcomings. That’s not fair. Clearly the Bears need to go in a different direction next season, something that will be easy to do with Grossman in the last year of his deal. However, the Bears still have 13 games this season. The other players have to look in the mirror and ask what they can do better to help this team win, instead of relying on a backup QB to save their season. Until the other 10 guys on the offense start picking up their level of play, the Bear’s QB situation will be a mess, no matter who is behind the center.
4) New England is the class of the AFC; Dallas is the class of the NFC – New England’s play speaks for itself. Randy Moss looks like Randy Moss in 1998, Tom Brady looks like the best QB to ever play the game, and the defense is making plays. In Dallas, the defense was shaky the first two weeks, but rebounded with a nice effort in week 3. I would love to go with the Packers as the class of the NFC. While the defense is better than the Cowboys, the Cowboys have much better balance on the offensive side of the ball. The Packers are struggling to run the football. The Cowboys are running, passing, and scoring 38.6 points per game. The Cowboys get somewhat of a pass for their defensive problems, because Newman hasn’t been healthy. While it is too early to tell if these teams will be playing this well in November and December, these teams are definitely positioning themselves to have special seasons.
5) Pittsburgh looks to be fixed – If the Patriots weren’t beating their opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game, the talk of the league would be the Steelers. While none of the teams they beat were elite NFL teams last season, neither were the Steelers. Big Ben looks right again, Parker is a beast, and the defense is intimidating people again. The Steelers look like they made all the right moves this offseason. With the Bengals struggling, the Steelers and Ravens appear poised to contend for this division. The Steelers have been much more impressive to start the season and appear to be the favorite.
A Look Ahead: With three games in the books, we are starting to have several teams that are in must win situations early in the year. These are not necessarily the five best games, but the 5 most important games in shaping the various divisions around the NFL:
1) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at NY Giants (1-2) – I would say this is a must win for both teams. Both teams were in the playoffs last season. Both teams expect to be again this season. Both teams started (0-2). The winner will have a 2 game win streak and be back to .500. The winner will be ½ game behind the Washington Redskins, which they should feel pretty good about catching. They will be only a game or two behind Dallas. The loser goes to 1-3 and probably falls 3 games behind Dallas early in the season. Both teams have fragile chemistry issues, especially the Giants. If I were going to pick a team more able to recover from this loss, it would be the Eagles. They are better coached and McNabb is a more proven leader than Eli. I think with the issues surrounding Coughlin, this Giants are done if they drop to 1-3. However, this is a divisional game that neither of these teams can afford to lose. Winner: Eagles
2) Chicago Bears (1-2) at Detroit Lions (2-1) – Detroit really needs this game. Beating Oakland and Minnesota is one thing. Beating a playoff contender is another. In their first test against a playoff caliber team, the Lions failed miserably. This is a chance to gain a win against a quality opponent and to destroy the confidence of the division favorite. If they lose as convincingly as they did last week, people are going to have a lot of questions about the Lions early season success. For Chicago, disaster mode has not struck yet. They lost 2 games to teams that were fashionable Super Bowl picks to start the season. Their season will be decided in the next two weeks. Green Bay should beat Minnesota this week. Then the Bears play the Packers in Lambeau next week. If the Bears get swept, they would be 1-4, trailing the Packers by at least 3 games, probably 4 games. If they win the next two weeks, worst-case scenario they are (3-2) and the Packers are (4-1). If they are going to salvage their season, it starts by winning this week. Winner: Lions
3) NY Jets (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (0-3) – This is a must win for the Jets. The Jets went 10-6 last season and made the playoffs. They started off with a brutal opening schedule, facing the Patriots and Ravens. This is the second of the two teams in the division the Jets have to beat. A victory puts the Jets at (2-2) and builds some good momentum. A loss puts them in the cellar and probably 3 games back of the Patriots. For Buffalo, they aren’t going anywhere, even if they win this game. With Losman hurt and the offense struggling, they are just trying to pick up wins and build confidence for a young team that has really struggled to win games. They need to get Lee Evans on track. He has too much talent to have 5 catches for 27 yards in his first three games. Winner: Jets
4) Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2) – This is a must win for San Diego. Kansas City isn’t going anywhere, even if they win this ball game. For San Diego, this is the first of three consecutive divisional games. The excuse in San Diego is that their record is the result of a tough opening schedule (7-2) overall for the Bears, Patriots, and Packers. If the Chargers lose this ball game, that theory goes right out the window. The loser of this game drops to 1-3 in the division. The winner is 2-2, and feels that they have stopped the bleeding. While teams are not eliminated in September, this is a big game for two teams that were in the playoffs last season. Winner: Chargers
5) St Louis (0-3) at Dallas (3-0) – With Stephen Jackson out for the Rams, the hits just keep on coming. The reason this game is so important for St Louis is that the Seahawks and 49ers are squaring off in a divisional match up. With both teams at (2-1), the winner will be 3-1. If the Rams drop to (0-4), they can pretty much start building for next season with a 3 game deficit this early in the season. With a win, they can build some confidence and are only 2 games out of the division and one game back from second place. For Dallas, this is an important game to start building a lead in the NFC East. The Redskins have a bye, and the Eagles and Giants square off. It is a chance to have a 1 & ½ game lead on the Redskins, and a 2 game lead on the winner of the Eagles v. Giants game. When you are playing an injured and struggling team, you need to capitalize on that opportunity. It doesn’t do any good to beat the Bears in Chicago if you follow it up with a loss to the winless Rams. Winner: Cowboys
That’s all for this week. Check in next week when I review another slate of NFL games.
The offenses started to kick it into full gear in week 2. Well, at least the offenses in Ohio. It was an exciting week of NFL action. If I didn’t mention your favorite player or team, it isn’t because I didn’t watch the game or research the game. It’s because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter. Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it. I hereby present to you a recap of Week 2 in the National Football League.
Standings
AFC EastNFC East 1.New England (2-0) 1.Dallas (2-0) 2.Buffalo (0-2) 2.Washington (2-0) 3.Miami (0-2) 3.NY Giants (0-2) 4. NY Jets (0-2) 4.Philadelphia (0-2)
AFC SouthNFC South 1.Houston (2-0) 1. Carolina (1-1) 2.Indianapolis (2-0) 2. Tampa Bay (1-1) 3. Tennessee (1-1) 3. New Orleans (0-2) 4. Jacksonville (1-1) 4. Atlanta (0-2)
AFC North NFC North 1.Pittsburgh (2-0) 1.Detroit (2-0) 2.Cleveland (1-1) 2.Green Bay (2-0) 3.Cincinati (1-1) 3.Chicago (1-1) 4.Baltimore (1-1) 4.Minnesota (1-1)
AFC WestNFC West 1. Denver (2-0) 1. San Fran (2-0) 2. San Diego (1-1) 2. Arizona (1-1) 3. Kansas City (0-2) 3. Seattle (1-1) 4. Oakland (0-2) 4. St Louis (0-2)
MVP of the Week: This is a pretty easy pick. I’m not too proud to say that I got it wrong about a team. The Cleveland Browns looked awful last week. They looked like they wouldn’t score another touchdown all season. They were so bad they traded their starting QB to Seattle. Enter Derek Anderson. 20 for 33, 328 yards and 5 touchdowns, against 1 pick in a 51-45 shootout with the Bengals. Honorable mentions to everyone in this game. This was the first game in NFL history that featured two 300-yard passers, a 200-yard rusher, and a 200-yard receiver. Further mentions to Steve Smith and his 153 yards and 3 touchdowns, Andre Johnson’s 120 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Brett Favre, who threw 3 touchdowns in his 149th career victory, passing John Elway for first on the all time wins list for starting quarterbacks.
Game of the Week: Cleveland and Cincy played one for the ages. Or at least since 2004. Back then; these teams actually gave us a higher scoring performance, a 58-48 shootout won by the Bengals in Cincy. This time, Cleveland returned the favor by winning 51-45 in Cleveland. The teams combined for 1,076 yards of offense, 12 touchdowns, and 96 points (8th most in NFL history). The game featured two QBs with 5 touchdown passes (Palmer & Anderson), two 300-yard passers (Palmer & Anderson), a 200-yard rusher (Lewis), and a 200-yard receiver (C. Johnson). It was the first time this happened in the history of the NFL. The game was in doubt until the end, when Cleveland intercepted Carson Palmer. A defensive play actually sealed this game. Honorable mentions to Oakland v. Denver, Minnesota v. Detroit, and Seattle v. Arizona. All three were decided by game ending field goals, with Denver and Detroit victorious in OT.
Loser of the Weak: The New Orleans offense. After losing 41-10 to the Colts, they trailed the Bucs 31-7, before scoring a garbage TD to lose 31-14. They have been outscored 72-24 in the first 2 weeks of the season. Sharing the honor is the St Louis offense, which has 30 points in the first two weeks. Jackson had 60 yards on Sunday, raising his total to 118 yards on 39 carries and 0 touchdowns in 2 games this season. The sad thing is that it is almost twice as much as the 68 rushing yards Tomlinson has put up this season. Lee Evans has looked horrible to start the season. His 2 catches for 17 yards on Sunday brought his season total to 4 catches for 22 yards and 0 touchdowns.
The Bay of Pigs: The easy thing to do would be to pick Atlanta and Jacksonville, seeing the score was 13-7. However, at least that game featured two 200-yard passers and no turnovers. I would instead go with the KC v. Bears. The final score was 20-10 Bears. 7 of the Bears 20 points were the result of a Hester return. Grossman threw 2 picks. Huard chipped in with a pick. Neither QB was able to get over 200- yards passing, as both were running for their life most of the day. While some will describe this as a defensive struggle, I would term it an offensive struggle between two teams that have their share of issues on the offensive side of the ball.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I’m going to go with Andy Reid’s timeout selection on Monday night. With the Eagles leading 6-3 at the end of the second half, the Redskins began to implode with 3 straight false start penalties. It became so bad, that Gibbs decided to just send out the field goal kicker. Reid might have been unsure about a fake or he might have been trying to ice the kicker. Regardless, he tried to get cute and called a timeout. It gave the Redskins a chance to regroup, call a final play, and throw a touchdown to Cooley. That was a 4-point swing for the Redskins, and gave them huge momentum heading into the half. Reid would have been much better off to have his defense on the field for the kick and let them have the field goal. Instead of going to the locker room tied, he went in down 4 points.
Hospital Visit: The most concerning injuries would be to Andre Johnson of the Texans. Andre Johnson sprained his left knee and is doubtful for the Colts game. That would be a huge loss for the Texans offense. Trevor Pryce suffered a broken wrist and is expected to miss about a month. Brian Dawkins injured his neck in the Monday night game. The severity of the injury is unknown. With Lito Sheppard already out, the Eagles cannot afford to lose more defensive backs with Detroit coming to town.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Rex Grossman & Donovan McNabb are a mess – With respect to Grossman, it just doesn’t appear he will ever get it. He still throws off his back foot. He still makes bad decisions. He has the best D and special teams in the NFL, yet makes every game interesting. According to Fox Sports, Chargers linebacker Matt Wilhelm told the North County Times that former Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera described Grossman as a "mental midget." I couldn’t have said it any better myself.
McNabb is having problems with his knee. He does not appear to have good mobility. The Eagles have scored 1 touchdown in over 20 offensive possessions. His accuracy has much to be desired. That’s saying something for a QB that has about a 58% completion percentage when healthy. The Eagles have started 0-2 under Andy Reid on 2 other occasions. They are by far Reid’s worst two weeks of the season during his head coaching career. It will be interesting to see how a ####ed up Eagle’s secondary responds against a pass happy Detroit. Who would have though the 0-2 Eagles would be hosting the 2-0 Lions in an early “must win” game for the Eagles?
2) The Giants Defense is a mess – People said that the Giants success in 07 would hinge on whether Eli Manning could make the jump. Eli Manning has looked very strong in his first two games. He displayed a lot of leadership in playing through a separated shoulder on Sunday. The Giants Defense is the problem. They have surrendered 80 points and 7 touchdown passes in the first two weeks of the season. They are probably in a must win next week against the 2-0 Redskins. They can’t afford to fall 3 games back in the division this early in the season.
3) Tony Romo is for real – I think Tony Romo has quickly answered any questions about whether or not he is ready to be the next great Cowboys QB. I was more impressed with him this week than in week 1. Anyone can shred a poor defense. Miami is consistently a top 10 defense. Yet Romo generated 37 points for the Cowboys. While he was only 14 for 29 and had under 200-yards, he did not throw an interception. He allowed the game to come to him. If the Cowboys can stop doing their Cincy impersonation on defense, the Cowboys should be in great shape to win the NFC East.
4) Houston looks to be in for a good season – Last week didn’t do much for me. While they beat the Chiefs 20-3, I think the Chiefs are a terrible football team. Beating Carolina in Carolina shows me something. They trailed that game 14-0. Last season this team would have quit. This years Texans put up 31 points and won 34-21. The thing that impressed me was the balance on offense. Green had another workmen like game, and Andre Johnson is starting to show the league what he can do with a real NFL QB. While this is still the Colts division, the Texans are making solid strides to start the season.
5) Slow down Pittsburgh and Detroit – I know that fans of these teams are pumped and ready. I caution fans of both teams. Beating the Raiders, Vikings, Browns, and Bills is not a reason to reserve tickets for the Super Bowl. The Steelers I think have a better chance of maintaining their success. They are just a year removed from their playoff runs, and Big Ben looks to be back to his normal self. I could see this team winning 10 games and competing for the division. The Lions I think are the product of an easy opening schedule. It will be interesting to see how close they get to Kitna’s guarantee of 10 wins once the heart of the schedule shows up.
A Look Ahead: Someone in the AFC East other than the New England Patriots should get a win in Week 3. Although the Bills are playing the Patriots, the Jets and Dolphins square off. If the Patriots win on Sunday, they will have a 3 game lead over Buffalo and the loser of the Jets and Dolphins. In that event, the winner of that contest will trail New England by 2 games and will be looking at second place with a 1-2 record. This week will go a long way in determining if New England is going to run away with this division in September. The top games on the slate in no particular order are as follows:
1) Chargers (1-1) at Packers (2-0) – Now we get to see how good the Green Bay defense has become. If the Packers can hold LT the way the Bears and Pats did they will go along way toward joining the upper defenses in the NFL. For the Packers, this will be a comfortable change from the last few seasons. With their first 2-0 start since 2001, the Packers are not in an early season “must win” game. The good thing for the Packers is that San Diego has problems stopping the pass, which is the strength of the Packer offense. The bad news for Green Bay is that their line has been suspect; something that cannot be comforting to Favre seeing Merriman is coming to town.
2) 49ers (2-0) at Steelers (2-0) – This matches up a pair of 2-0 teams. The 49ers look to continue their early season defensive success, while the Steelers will be looking to key on Frank Gore and the 49er offense. The key to this game should be how much passing offense Alex Smith and the 49er offense can muster. While Frank Gore is a terrific running back, the Steelers are very tough to run against. The 49ers will have to generate offense through the air if they hope to win this game.
3) Indy (2-0) at Houston (2-0) – Probably the most meaningful game in the history of the Texan’s franchise. This is when we will see if Houston is for real. While this is not a must win, they must play well. It is one thing if they lose 27-20. It is another thing if they get blown out 41-6. Houston needs to show that they are a competitive franchise that can play a competitive game against the league’s elite.
4) Dallas (2-0) at Chicago (1-1) – This is an early season matchup between two of the favorites in the NFC. This will be an excellent test for Romo, as he will need to do more of what he did against the Dolphins if he wants to win this game next Sunday. If Romo can avoid the mistakes, Rex Grossman will pick up the slack and help Dallas leave the windy city with a W.
That’s all for this week. Check in next week when I review another slate of NFL games.
As I continue my weekly post predicting the NFL, this week I focus on my favorite division, the NFC North. The reason it is my favorite division is not because it is the best in football; in fact, it is far from it. The reason I love this division is that the Green Bay Packers are my favorite team. Without further delay, here is how I see the NFC North playing out this season.
Chicago Bears
Strengths: The strength of this team is the same as it has been since 2000. Brian Urlacher and the defense. Brian Urlacher is as fine of a defensive player as any in the league. He is one of those players that everyone wishes they had on their team. The main problem that caused the Bears defense to break down at the end of last season was injuries to Harris and Brown, legal problems for Tank Johnson, and Rex Grossman being Rex Grossman. The Bears also had the best special teams in the league last season. Hester returned 6 touchdowns for the Bears. Gould was as dependable a kicker as any in the league. The Bears also have a very strong head coach. Lovie Smith was a winner in Tampa, came to St Louis and turned that defense around, and since taking over the Bears in 2004, has won 2 division titles and led the Bears to a Super Bowl. Coaching in Chicago is a challenge unlike any other. Every team is compared to the 85 Bears. Every coach is compared to “Da Coach.” While the Bears will never measure up to the 85 standard, this should still be a very good team. Its defense gives them a chance to win every Sunday.
Weaknesses: The main weakness is the offense, and it starts at the quarterback position. Rex Grossman was as up and down as they came last year. His first 5 starts produced 4 games with a 98.0 rating or higher. He had 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Enter the next 11 weeks of the season. A 36.8 rating against the Dolphins. A 10.2 rating against the Cardinals. A 1.3 rating against the Vikings. And my personal favorite, a 0.0 rating against the Packers. Sorry Bear fans, but I had to get that one in. Grossman redeemed himself by having 2 solid outings against the Seahawks and the Saints. Then came the Super Bowl, where he fumbled and bumbled his way to a dreadful performance. If the Bears are going to stay atop the division, Rex Grossman has to play with more consistency. When he plays within himself, he can be as good as any quarterback in the league. When he throws off his back foot, scrambles around, and tries to play like a playground quarterback, he throws pick after pick. Grossman also has a problem putting bad plays out of his head. Once he makes his first mistake, it seems as if he tries to correct it with one big play, which adds to more mistakes. Other question marks besides Grossman are the running game and wide receiver. Thomas Jones was traded to the Jets. That leaves Benson as the featured back. He has to show that he is mature enough to be able to shoulder the responsibility. The receiver position is not really anything to write home about. Berrian looks to have promise. Muhhamad has been a good possession receiver, but has not performed at a high enough level to warrant his big contract. It will be interesting to see what Hester can do at wide receiver. Rookie tight end Olson was a much-needed addition to the passing game. &nb
