As I promised here is the first in 8 installments of division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. You could have a Ricky Williams style retirement on the eve of camp. Brett Favre could decide to un-retire. However, with what we have in place as of today here is what I see taking place in 2008.
Some people will say it is way to early to start making predictions. My response to that would be that it is always too early to make predictions. How many people are going to hop off the Patriots bandwagon if they go 0-4 in preseason, barring a Tom Brady season ending injury? How many people are going to jump on the Dolphins bandwagon if they go 4-0?
Unless there is a major injury it is fairly safe to say this is how I am going to feel about the divisions. If you think I am starting these too early leave a comment about what you think is going to change for your team between now and the start of the season that I am not taking into account.
In my first installment I am starting with the AFC East. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC East was by far the most lopsided division in 2007. The Patriots won the division by 9 games. While 16-0 helped create that lofty margin, the Bills didn’t do much to keep the division competitive going 7-9 in second place. The Jets and Dolphins finished 4-12 and 1-15 respectively.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)New England Patriots
07 Record: 16-0
Points Scored: 589 (1st)
Points Allowed: 274 (4th)
Playoff Result: Lost Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule:99-157 (.387) (32nd in NFL)
Strengths: When a team completes the first 16-0 season in NFL history, there isn’t going to be a lot of weaknesses to look at. Bill Belichick has done a great job keeping the Patriots the most dominant team in the NFL since 2001. The strength of the team is their offense and that offense broke NFL records that many thought were untouchable. Their 589 points scored in a single season demonstrates the ease with which this offense moved the ball. Patriots starts with Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Tom Brady completed a historic NFL season, in which he won his first MVP award. The future Hall of Famer passed for 4,806 yards, 50 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 117.2. The major benefactors of those big numbers were Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Moss had a record setting 23 touchdown receptions to go along with 98 catches and 1,493 yards. Wes Welker had 112 catches for 1175 yards and 8 touchdowns.
The Patriots also had a very good running game. While injuries prevented one back from accumulating all the numbers, the Patriots as a team ranked a respectable 13th in rushing yards. Laurence Maroney is their most promising runner and if he can stay healthy he should be able to eclipse 1,000 yards.
The Patriots didn’t punt the ball a lot and scoring touchdowns were so frequent that we didn’t get to see much in the way of their special teams. All in all their return units and kicking game was fairly strong and should continue to be that way in 2008.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to call a defense that ranked 4th in the NFL a weakness. The Patriots defense would be the strength of most teams. But considering how good the offense was in 2007; that is what the defense is for the Patriots. The Patriots D did a lot of good things in 2007. They were very good at pressuring the quarterback. The Patriots ranked 2nd in the NFL at sacking the quarterback. They also ranked 6th in passing yards allowed, which is amazing considering how far behind teams were the majority of the game. The Patriots were however very average at stopping the run. While they ranked tenth in yards allowed, they ranked 26th in yards per carry at 4.4.
The defensive line is still in great shape. Wilfork is a beast and still in his 20s. Seymour and Warren are excellent on the ends. They also have good depth behind them. The biggest challenge for the Patriots on defense is overcoming age issues in the linebacker core and replacing heavy losses in the secondary. All of their starting linebackers are 30 years old or older. Thomas is still an excellent player with a few prime years left. Seau is 39 years old and Bruschi will be 35 years old in a month. That was the big motivation for drafting Mayo with the 10th pick and Crable in the 3rd round. Both will need to contribute immediately.
Samuel was a huge free agent loss in the secondary. They also lost #### and Wilson. Harrison returns, but is 36 years old and was susceptible to the pass last season. The Patriots signed CBs Fernando Bryant and Lewis Sanders to go along with S Tank Williams. While those should be good players, it is hard to believe they will be better than what the Patriots lost. They also drafted Wheatley in the 2nd round to provide depth.
Prediction: It will be interesting to see if the rest of the NFL has caught up to the Patriots in 2008. The Patriots were light years ahead of the rest of the league during the first 10 games of the season. As the season progressed, teams started to close the gap. Still the Patriots went 18-0, before losing by a field goal in the Super Bowl. Losing by a field goal isn’t exactly being figured out.
The schedule doesn’t look very challenging. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage with a .387 winning percentage. They only play 4 playoff teams from 2007. That is the minimum for a first place team. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will pan out as the easiest schedule, but based on last season it doesn’t look very challenging.
I think the Patriots will still have one of the top 5 scoring offenses in the NFL. I think they will still have a respectable defense, but one that either barely makes the top 10 or is on the cusp. Even though as a whole they won’t be as good as 2007, they should still have more than enough weapons to run away with the division and earn a first round bye in the playoffs.
New England Patriot's Record: 13-3 – AFC East Divisional Champion; AFC #2 Seed
2) New York Jets
07 Record: 4-12
Points Scored: 268 (25th)
Points Allowed: 355 (19th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:117-139 (.457) (25th in NFL)
Strengths: Eric Mangini had a hard fall from grace in 2007. After being considered one of the hottest coaching prospects entering 2007, it is back to the drawing board in 2008. It is hard to look back to 2007, because the NY Jets have been so active in free agency. The NY Jets were not awful on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the pass. The Jets ranked 9th in pass yards allowed and 6th in pass touchdowns allowed. Keep in mind that part of that was due to the bad job they did stopping the run.
On offense, Thomas Jones did have the 1,000 yard season the Jets hoped he would have. The bad news was that he did it on 3.6 yards per carry and had only one rushing touchdown the whole season. Cotchery had 82 receptions for 1,130 yards and 2 touchdowns. Coles had 55 catches for 646 yards and 6 touchdowns while being limited by injuries for a good part of the season. Both were impressive given their starting quarterback situation.
The Jets have some issues going in at quarterback this season. Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens will be the main signal callers for the Jets in 2008. When Pennington is healthy he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He is extremely accurate and makes good decisions. Injuries have robbed him of a lot of games. Clemens is the probable starter heading into camp, but by no means did he do so well in 2008 that the Jets wouldn’t contemplate going back to Pennington should Clemens prove ineffective.
The kicking game looks to be in good shape. Nugent and Graham both had solid seasons. Neither is a major concern heading into this season.
Weaknesses: The NY Jets had weaknesses all over the board. They only won 4 games, and 2 of those were against the 1-15 Dolphins. They were run over by opposing running backs the whole season, giving up the 29th most rushing yards in the NFL. They struggled to control the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. They finished 19th in rushing yards gained and 30th in rushing touchdowns scored. It was a year to forget for a team coming off a wildcard birth and 10 wins in 2006.
The Jets decided to fix this mess by hitting free agency as if there was no tomorrow. They signed Alan Faneca and Damien Woody to upgrade the offensive line. They signed TE Bubba Franks and FB Tony Richardson to improve their blocking at those positions. When those guys can stay healthy they are very effective in that regard. They also drafted Dustin Keller to give them a receiving threat at tight end. Finally, the Jets guaranteed the final $11 million of Cole’s contract to keep him happy.
On defense they traded a third and fifth round pick for DT Kris Jenkins and signed OLB Kelvin Pace away from the Arizona Cardinals. They drafted Vernon Gholston with the 6th pick. He was one of the premier pass rushers in the entire draft. They also drafted Dwight Lowery to add depth in the secondary. Finally, they signed S Kerry Rhodes to five year, $33.5 million extension ($20 million guaranteed) extension to keep him in the secondary.
What all this means is that the Jets were one of the busiest players in free agency and the first round of the draft. They could have as many as 7 new starters or one third of the starting positions. That means that you really can’t look at last year’s results as many key contributors on this team are players that were not on the Jet’s roster in 2007.
Prediction: It’s hard for me to believe that the Jets aren’t going to improve on their record from 2007 given their strength of schedule and all the free agents they signed and high draft picks they made. The question is whether that is going to be enough for them to get into the playoffs.
Playing the Dolphins and Bills twice can always help. They get the NFC West and AFC West meaning San Fran, St Louis, Oakland, and Kansas City. They will win more than 4 games in 2008. That said, I still am not in love with adding a bunch of high priced veteran free agents and throwing it together and hoping for greatness the following season. History is full of teams that crashed and burned using that approach.
I think it is going to take this team some time to gel. I also am not in love with their quarterback situation. Pennington’s best days are behind him and Clemens didn’t show me anything to get very excited about. Given their schedule and improvement in talent, I am looking for them to get to 7-9 or possibly 8-8 this season. Anything more than 8 wins would be a major surprise to me.
NY Jet's Record: 7-9 – AFC East 2nd place; No Playoffs
3)Buffalo Bills
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 252 (30th)
Points Allowed: 354 (18th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:115-141 (.449) (27th in NFL)
Strengths:#### Jauron has done a very good job with this squad since being hired by the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills were your classic effort team in 2008. Despite ranking 30th in yards gained and 31st in yards allowed they were able to make enough plays to win games. Critics will point to their 7-9 record as being the result of 4 wins over the Dolphins and Jets. Still, other than the Patriots games, Jaguars, and Steelers the Bills played most of their schedule fairly competitively. They were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys in the games closing seconds. They beat a playoff team in Washington. This is a team that was able to give teams fits with their hustle and effort.
The Bills have some quality pieces as well. Lee Evans could be a great receiver if he could get the right quarterback situation. #### had a very good rookie campaign and is expected to do big things in Year 2. Fred Jackson was a quality back up. Edwards played some good minutes and will be competing with Losman for the starting job. Edwards should be the favorite to earn the starting nod. On defense Aaron Schobel is always considered one of the leagues better defensive ends.
The kicking game is pretty solid. Rian Lindell was 24 for 27 in 2007. Brian Moorman had grossed as high as 45.7 in 2005 was down to 40.8 in 2007. Roscoe Parish is a promising return man.
Weaknesses: While the Bills had a nice season, they need to get more good players if they want to take the next jump. They were anemic on offense and the defense was not good enough to carry the team. The Bills did a nice job of upgrading their defense. Marcus Stroud is a nice addition to the defensive line. They also added Spencer Johnson to sure up the DT position. The Bills drafted DE Chris Ellis to improve the defensive line. They signed Kawika Mitchell away from the World Champion NY Giants. He should help the linebacker spot. Finally, the Bills singed William James and drafted Leodis McKelvin and Reggie Corner to improve the secondary. If these moves pan out, the Bills defense will be a much better unit in 2008.
The Bills didn’t completely ignore the offense. They drafted James Hardy out of Indiana in the second round. He should make a nice compliment to established starter Lee Evans. The Bills are gambling that their young offensive starters will continue to progress and will be aided by a much stronger defense that will keep them in most games.
Prediction: The Bills did make several additions that should improve this team. However, I do not believe they have caught up to the Patriots yet and the NY Jets were as active as any team in the league in free agency. The Dolphins have also been busy. I don’t expect the Bills to go 4-2 in their division in 2008.
That said, the Bills do have some winnable out of division games if the Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, and Rams. I expect the Bills to be right around 7-9 or 8-8 in 2008. If the Bills finished slightly ahead of the NY Jets that would not surprise me. If the Bills ended up tied or slightly behind the Jets, that too would not surprise me. The bottom line is that I think both the Bills and the Jets are both teams hovering around .500 and both have a ways to go before entering the playoff discussion in the very deep and talented AFC.
Buffalo Bill's Record: 7-9 – AFC 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Miami Dolphins
07 Record: 1-15
Points Scored: 267 (26th)
Points Allowed: 437 (30th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:119-137 (.465) (22nd in NFL)
Strengths: The Dolphins had been flirting with contention in 2005 and were a trendy playoff pick in 2006. They finished that season 6-10 and by 2007 the bottom fell out and they went 1-15, with their sole win coming over the 5-11 Baltimore Ravens in OT.
The Dolphins basically played 2 seasons in 2007. In their first 8 games they put up points with Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers, but their defense was no where to be found. The Patriots, Cowboys, Browns, and other high powered offenses torched them on a week to week basis. They gave up 244 points in their first 8 games, but scored a respectable 166 points.
The defense made good strides in the second half. They gave up only 193 points in the second half. By that time Ronnie Brown was gone for the year, Trent Green was on IR, and Chambers was in San Diego. The offense only scored 101 points in their last 8 games and the Dolphins were officially in disaster. They lost their first 13 games, before beating the Ravens in their 14th game. It would be their only victory of the season.
There are no easy answers in Miami. First year Head Coach Tony Sparano is inheriting one gigantic mess. They have a blossoming star running back coming back from knee surgery. They do not have a quality starting quarterback in place. They are young and unproven at wide receiver. The offensive line is a mess. On defense, they are an older team. Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are proven commodities in the league, but nearing the end of their great careers. Zack Thomas is no longer with the team. They need to start rebuilding the defensive line and secondary. The special teams could use improvement in all areas.
That is why the Dolphins hired The Tuna. Bill Parcells has been entrusted with the difficult task of putting the Dolphins back together again. He is starting at the bottom and working his way up.
Weaknesses: Here is what the Dolphins did this offseason to start improving the team. Parcells started getting rid of older players and non productive players and made wholesale changes to the roster. He brought in Josh McCown and drafted Chad Henne to go along with Beck to give them a better QB situation. He decided instead of drafting McFadden to keep Brown and improve the offensive line. The Dolphins singed Justin Smiley to a nice contract and drafted Jake Long with the first pick to play tackle. He is already signed. They also drafted Shawn Murphy to play guard. They then acquired tight end Anthony Fasano in a trade from the Cowboys and signed Earnest Wilford and Tab Perry to improve the receiving core. There are going to be a lot of knew faces for the Dolphins on offense.
The same is going to be true on defense. The Dolphins may not win a lot of gamed, but they aren’t going to lose with the same cast of characters. They signed safeties Chris Crocker and Keith Davis. They aren’t big names, but should improve that position. They added Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor to the linebacker core. They traded for Jason Ferguson and signed Randy Starks to improve the defensive tackle spot. They also drafted Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford to add to the defensive end position. Those new faces should go well with Jason Taylor and Joey Porter.
The Dolphins are in the midst of a full rebuilding effort. There will be many new and unfamiliar faces in the lineup in 2008 as the Dolphins try to put the embarrassment of a 1-15 campaign behind them.
Prediction: The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots were not built in a day. It took years of good drafts, solid free agency, and developing young players to turn those franchises into the powerhouses they are today. The Dolphins aren’t going to fix this problem overnight. Bill Parcells is well aware of that. He did an excellent job of bringing in players and trying to change the culture of this team. It will be interesting to see if the riff between Jason Taylor and he is reparable once this team gets to playing football. Evidently, Bill Parcells is not a fan of Dancing with the Stars.
The Dolphins are still looking at being the 4th best team in this division. They may be able to steal a game or two against either the Jets or Bills. The Chiefs, Raiders, 49ers, and Rams offer chances for victory. They play the Ravens and Texans, which will also give them a chance to compete. It isn’t going to be the frustration of 2007, but it isn’t going to be very pretty either. I look for the Dolphins to win 4 more games, but still sure up the bottom of the AFC East.
Miami Dolphin's Record: 5-11 – AFC 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
Now that everyone has recoverd from watching the Pro Bowl it is time to get back to business. The Patriots losing Super Bowl XLII has created the opportunity to do a lot of interesting articles that many of us never thought were possible just one week ago. In addition to recapping the Super Bowl I have looked at the Patriots standing among the greatest teams never to win a Super Bowl Ring. But as our famous Little Red Riding Hood so eloquently put, "The Past is in the Past."
One of the more interesting takes I have seen on the message boards is the sentiment by Patriots fans that the fans of the other 31 NFL clubs need not worry, because the Patriots will be back in the Bowl again next season. While I can't blame them for being optimistic I get a kick out of that. You would think after being so certain that their team would go 19-0 that it would take a little longer than a week for the Patriot fans to count their 19-0 Shirts before they hatch. Many of them were singing the next year chant the very night the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.
Seeing the Past is in the Past I figured it would be interesting to see if the Future is also the Future. I don't have Tea Leaves or a Crystal Ball that can see the future. Therefore I decided to do what I often do in these situations. I look at NFL History. Is Boston Fan correct in assuming that his or her team will be back on the biggest stage as early as next season?
I decided to look at this from 3 different perspectives. 1) How have the teams that finished a season with one or fewer losses since 1960 done the following season? 2) How have teams done the season after losing the Super Bowl? 3) How long have the previous dynasties managed to keep their Window of Dominance open?
1) If you look at how the teams with one loss or fewer did the next season since 1960 it really doesn't look promising for the Patriots. Here is how the teams did after losing 1 game or fewer the season after their historic run.
1962 Packers (13-1) - Finished 11-2-1 in 1963. Second in Division - No Playoffs 1968 Colts (13-1) - Finished 8-5-1 in 1969. Second in Division. No Playoffs 1972 Dolphins (14-0) - Finished 12-2 in 1973. Won Super Bowl 24-7. 1984 49ers (15-1) - Finished 10-6 in 1985. Lost Wildcard Game 17-3. 1985 Bear (15-1) - Finished 14-2 in 1986. Lost Divisional Game 27-13. 1998 Vikings (15-1) - Finished 10-6 in 1999. Lost Divisional Game 49-37. 2004 Steelers (15-1) - Finished 11-5 in 2005. Won Super Bowl 21-10.
Clearly the bottom didn't fall out. If anyone thinks the Patriots are doomed to miss the playoffs in 2008 they are probably kidding themselves, especially when you consider the division in which the reside. Even with The NFL Draft and Free Agency it seems hard to believe the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets can close the gap in one season.
All of the teams after 1970 on this list at least made the playoffs the following season. 6 of the 7 teams at least posted double digit win totals. Had the 1963 playoffs had the current format the Packers would have made the playoffs. Furthermore, they might have competed with the Bears for the title had Paul Hornung not been suspended for the 1963 season for allegedly videotaping his opponents Super Bowl Practice…excuse me, I meant gambling on NFL games. Sorry Patriots fans I couldn’t resist.
However, every team had a worst record. The only teams that didn’t have a noticeable decline in the regular season were the 1972 Dolphins and 1985 Bears. I don't think Boston fan will be happy with 11 or 12 wins and a first round loss in 2008. Clearly The Ring will be the expectation.
When you look at it from this perspective, history shows that the Patriots will probably post double-digit wins and make the playoffs, but not be back in the Super Bowl next season. Only 2 of these teams were able to reach the Super Bowl the following year. 73 Miami was coming off their 17-0 Super Bowl season when the repeated and the 05 Steelers needed to win 4 road playoff games to win their Super Bowl.
Patriot fans will argue that they have a number of things going for them that the other teams didn’t have. Tom Brady will be the first thing. The Patriot way. They don’t rebuild they just reload. With their top ten draft pick and free agency they should be able to improve the defense and things will be even better. Plus did I mention Tom Brady is still on the team?
I would point to the 1985 49ers. Brady is most often compared to Montana and the 49ers had an excellent front office in place during the 80s. They had Hall of Fame QB Joe Montana in the prime of his career. He had an All Pro season in 1985. Roger Craig was entering just his 3rd season. In 1985 he would become the fist player in NFL History to obtain 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. Furthermore, they drafted a certain wide receiver in the 1985 draft named Jerry Rice. Hard to believe the Patriots will draft a player better than that. The 49ers still dropped 5 games in the standings and lost their first playoff game 17-3. There was a 4-year gap between their 1984 Super Bowl season and 1988 Super Bowl season. They went 0-3 in the playoffs in 1985, 1986, and 1987.
It just isn't a guarantee. The Patriots have a lot of talent. They have a great structure in place. However 2007 was a very magical season. They had great chemistry to start the season. They benefited from the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets being in their division. They escaped some close games against the Colts, Eagles, Giants, and Ravens that didn't have to go their way. While they did have some injuries they stayed healthy at their most important positions. None of that stuff has to happen next season. The Patriots could be the same team talent wise to start next season and have a worse record due to things beyond their control. I would be extremely surprised if they did not lose at least 3 or even 4 games next season. That is before I have seen how they do in the draft and free agency. I just don’t think they will have all the things that went right for them this season go right two seasons in a row.
2) I don't want to bore people with how the previous 42 Super Bowl Loser did the following season. So let's just look at the last 10 seasons.
1998 Green Bay Packers - 11-5, 2nd NFC Central, Lost 27-30 @ San Fran WC Rd 1999 Atlanta Falcons - 5-11, 3rd Place NFC West, No Playoffs 2000 Tennessee Titans - 13-3, 1st Place AFC South, Lost 10-24 Baltimore Div Rd 2001 NY Giants - 7-9, 4th NFC East, No Playoffs 2002 St Louis Rams - 7-9, 3rd NFC West, No Playoffs 2003 Oakland Raiders - 4-12, 4th AFC West, No Playoffs 2004 Carolina Panthers - 7-9, 3rd Place NFC South, No Playoffs 2005 Philadelphia Eagles - 6-10, 4th Place NFC East, No Playoffs 2006 Seattle Seahawks - 9-7, 1st Place NFC West, Lost 27-24 @ Chicago Div Rd 2007 Chicago Bears - 7-9, 4th Place NFC Central, No Playoffs
As you can see, this looks even less promising. Only 3 previous Super Bowl losers managed to qualify for the playoffs the following season. Only 2 of the teams managed double digit wins the next season. Only 2 won their division. Seattle was the only team to win one playoff game. 2000 Tennessee is the only team that arguably got better, but was upset in their first playoff game by eventual champion Baltimore.
Again, the Patriots have a different dynamic because they have a Hall of Fame QB in the prime of his career. While it is true that Kerry Collins and Rex Grossman are not on par with Tom Brady some of the other teams had some pretty good signal callers. The 97 Packers had Brett Favre in his prime. Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair are clearly not Tom Brady caliber, but were still very solid QBs. Kurt Warner was coming off two MVP awards in his previous 3 seasons and had 36 TD passes in 2001. He went on to become injury prone. Having a great QB does not make you immune to a slip in record. A great QB can only do so much.
The last Super Bowl loser to return to the Super Bowl the following season was the 1992 Buffalo Bills who would return to the Super Bowl to lose their final and 4th straight Super Bowl in 1993. The only teams to lose a Super Bowl and win the Super Bowl the following season were the 1971 Cowboys and…you guessed it the 1972 Dolphins.
3) The last two ways didn’t produce much promise for the Patriots. Let’s look to the previous dynasties. How long does the window typically stay open? Obviously it will vary from team to team. Here are some of the more notable ones since 1960.
1960s Packers - Their first year of legitimacy was the 1960 season when they lost the NFL Title to the Philadelphia Eagles. They won their last Super Bowl in the 1967 season, which was clearly their worst team. They failed to qualify for the playoffs with the main players in the dynasty after 1967. - 8 year window
1970s Dolphins - They made their first playoff appearance with this group in 1970. They went to the first of their 3 Super Bowls in 1971. The Dolphins peaked in 1972 with their perfect season and repeated in 1973. While they would make the playoffs in 1974 and lost a heartbreaker to Oakland the core players only made the playoffs twice after that losing each time in the first round. - 5 year window
1970s Steelers - This team's run basically started in 1972 with the Immaculate Reception. The Steelers would win Super Bowls in 1974 and 1975. They would also win Super Bowls in 1978 and 1979. They would make the playoffs only one more time in the 1982 Strike Shortened Season before this group was done. - 8 year window
1970s Cowboys - The Cowboys are a little more difficult to figure out. They had a winning record from 1966 to 1985. However, I don’t think their window was 20 years. There were different core players over that span. The Meredith window was open for only 3 years. While Danny White was a good quarterback, the Cowboys were not the dominant team of the early 1980s. The Cowboys best period of success was the Staubach era. He was the starter on the 1971 Super Bowl team. They appeared in their last Super Bowl in the Staubach era in 1978. He retired in 1979 following a playoff loss. - 9 year window
1980s 49ers - The Cowboys are similar to the 49ers in that their window stayed open a long time mainly because they had two Hall of Fame QBs on their roster. The 49ers won their first playoff game in their 1981 Super Bowl Season and won their last playoff game with Joe Montana in the 1990 Season. The Montana window lasted an entire decade. - 10 year window
1980s Redskins - Joe Gibbs took over in 1981 and by 1982 he had won his first Super Bowl. He would win his last title in 1991 and make the playoffs for the last time in 1992 before retiring. It's hard to say when the era begins or ends, because Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 starting QBs. While the Gibbs era lasted about 10 seasons there is really nothing quite like it in NFL history. - 10 year window
1990s Cowboys - The Triplet led Cowboys qualified for their first Playoff Game in 1991. They won their last Super Bowl in 1995. They lost in the divisional round in 1996 to Carolina and never won a playoff after the 1996 season. - 6 year window
What this tells us is that the past NFL dynasties were basically able to remain viable for about a 5 to 10 year period. The 70s Dolphins and 90s Cowboys sustained the shortest periods of success at about 5 years while the 70s Cowboys and 80s 49ers probably had the longest window with the same QB going about 10 seasons.
One could argue that the Patriots have the ability to remain relevant for longer because Brady will be only 31 next season and they can use free agency and the draft to improve their other needs on a year-to-year basis. However, the other teams in their conference have the ability to do the same thing. Others could argue that with the level of contracts these Patriots will demand and with the turnover in NFL rosters that the salary cap will make it harder for them to keep their stellar team intact.
Regardless of your opinion on the dynamics of the current NFL system the Patriots dynasty began with the 2001 season and next year will be the 2008 season. They will be entering the 8th season of their dynasty. History tells us they are near the end of their run. They probably have two or three seasons left at the most.
Tom Brady will be 31 years old next season. While seeing the Favres and Elways perform at a high level in their late 30s gives Patriot fans hope that the Patriots will be relevant under Tom Brady for the next 8-10 years; quarterbacks usually start to decline in their mid 30s. Brady has been more fortunate than Montana in that he doesn’t have the back issues that plagued the middle of Montana’s career. Brady has been relatively health so far. That gives him a chance to have many more great years. While the Patriots could still win with Brady at quarterback later in his career they will probably need to rely more on the running game and defense similar to what the Broncos did with Davis in the later years of Elway's tenure. While Favre proved this year that it is possible for a 38-year old QB to lead a high powered passing offense that is the exception not the rule.
That creates a problem for the Patriots. Their defense is definitely on the decline. While statistically it ranked 4th in the NFL this season, I think even most die hard Patriots fans will admit that was not the 4th best defensive unit in the NFL. Part of the reason for the lofty success was what the offense brought to the table. It is a lot easier to play defense with a 4 touchdown lead when the other team is forced to pass the ball every play.
They have a lot of decisions to make on defense. The defensive line is in very good shape. Seymour, Warren, and Wilfork are all under 30 years old. However, their linebackers are extremely old.
Bruschi will be 35 at the start of next season. Vrabel will be 33 years old. Seau will be 39 years old. Their only young linebacker is Thomas and he is going to be 31 years old. Roosevelt Colvin was injured last season and may not be back with the team in 2008.
Then if you look in the secondary, Rodney Harrison will turn 36 years old next season. He has one year on his deal and is expected to return. While Samuel is an All Pro caliber player the Patriots have indicated they will not franchise him. He may not be back with the Patriots next season. Hobbs is pretty solid, but not as a number one corner. They could use more secondary depth especially if Samuel signs somewhere else.
The Patriots are going to be faced with the task of not only overhauling the linebackers, but also probably making wholesale changes in the secondary. That isn’t going to necessarily translate into the defense being better next season. They may have to take a step back to take two steps ahead. That will hurt their record and might take a couple years for that transformation to pay dividends.
Next, they have some issues on offense. Randy Moss is going to have to decide if he wants to come back for less money than he could make on the open market. Even if he doesn’t he will be 31 years old. Stallworth is 27 years old, but carries a $6 million dollar option. Most people do not think he will be back. If both Moss and Stallworth aren’t back how does that affect Welker? While he had a great year he played most of the season in the slot against single coverage. Is he ready to be a number one guy? Are they going to have to devote a high draft pick or free agency dollars to add receivers again?
Kevin Faulk is starting to get older. That is big because Maroney has not shown he is a great receiving threat. While the offensive line is basically 30 years old give or take a year, they have some issues to address there. They were beaten up pretty bad by some of the speedy pass rushes in the second half of the season, particularly San Diego and NY Giants in the playoffs. Some people fell they need to use the offseason to address the inside of the offensive line?
The fact is that Little Red Riding Hood realized that this was going to be their last best chance. He broke the bank adding a linebacker in his 30s for the tune of $66 million. He added 3 new wide receivers. Last offseason was not about building for the future. It was about winning a Super Bowl this year. While he certainly didn't mortgage the farm with those moves like Daniel Snyder seems to do every season they were made with one goal in mind. A 2007 Lombardi Trophy.
That is why he traded for the 49er draft pick last year. Mr. Hood knew he was going to need the next couple years to get that defense younger and he wanted as many picks as possible to do so. Even if the Spy Gate development had not taken a first round pick, I'm not sure if having a top 10 pick and a pick at the end of the first round would have been enough to retool a defense that realistically needs five new starters.
So far we have only talked about the Patriot's problems. Do you think the Chargers, Colts, Jags, and Steelers were happy about what transpired last year. They won’t be the same in 2008. They will make efforts to improve. Their drafts and their free agency will have one goal in mind. To make sure the Patriots do not run away with 2008.
I’m not trying to say there is only doom and gloom in Boston. Clearly the Patriots are not in a terrible position. It is better to be the Patriots than many of the other teams. They have arguably the best QB in the game on their roster. That is the hardest commodity to find. They have a young running back. Moss should still have a few years left if they are able to resign him. While history shows us not to expect 23 touchdown receptions in 2008 he still has some All Pro caliber years in front of him. They have a Hall of Fame Hood that has shown a history of making tough, but correct personnel decisions. If the Patriots had not attempted to get young by not resigning key players a few years ago they would be in a much worse spot today. While you have to keep the future in mind you can’t do it at the expense of the moment. He has been excellent at balancing those two conflicting philosophies. Finally, they have an owner that will allow the football people to determine what is best for the future of the organization. You won’t have a Jerry Jones or Daniel Snyder type sticking their noses into areas they have no clue about.
However, the Patriots are clearly closer to the end of their run than they are the beginning of it. Unlike the 1984 49ers they probably can’t wait 4 years to win another ring. History shows us one thing. The end is usually fast and unexpected. The 66 Packers were an All Time Great Team. The 67 Packers won the Super Bowl but were already on the decline. By 68 they couldn’t even finish .500. After making the Super Bowl three consecutive seasons the 1974 Dolphins lost their first round playoff game to Oakland on a heartbreaking 4th quarter throw by Ken Stabler. By 1975 they were never a viable contender going forward.
When the 1997 Packers lost their Super Bowl to Denver, I thought they still had a number of good runs left with Favre. There was a lot of young talent on that team. They still made the playoffs in 98 and lost to the 49ers on the Catch II. They missed the playoffs in 99 and 00 and they needed until 2001 to win another playoff game with mostly different personnel. Going forward from 2001 has had mixed results. I certainly didn’t think Favre would need 10 years to get back to the NFC Conference Championship in 1997.
When the Patriots time is done it will probably be no different. While we probably won’t see it coming and when it does it will be sudden and decisive. I don't have a crystal ball. The Patriots may go on to win the Super Bowl in 2008. The 97 Broncos, 05 Steelers, and 06 Colts were all able to win despite having better teams the year before that failed to capitalize on the moment. However the Patriots might never make the playoffs again. Only time will tell.
What I do know is that your best chance is the chance you have in front of you. The Patriots blew it. The only attitude you can have at that point if you are a part of the Patriot organization or are a fan is that they will take care of business next year. The Past is the Past. The NFL world keeps moving forward. If you aren’t getting better you are getting worse. Patriot fans are no different than the Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers, and Packers fans of the past in believing that success will last forever. I've been there.
It just doesn't. There are too many factors working against you. The system is set up to tear you down, not build you up. I'm not going to make my prediction for the 2008 season. There is still free agency, the draft, and Senate Hearings. A lot could happen between now and then.
What I do know is that the last time the Patriots tried to take on NFL History; NFL History won. From the looks of how these dominant one season teams and Super Bowl losers did the next season it doesn’t look promising. From the looks of the past dynasties the Patriots appear to be approaching the end, not the beginning. It looks like they will have to take on NFL History again in 2008 if they want to win the Super Bowl. Stay tuned.
This offseason Dr X and I will be writing prescriptions for all of the 32 NFL Teams. I am not posting those on the Fox Sports blog. If you want to check out the first 8 teams the article is located on the Fantasy Football Maniax website at http://fantasyfootballmaniaxs.alexia.us/index.php ?option=com_conten####mp;task=view&id=596&Ite mid=50
In a matter of 60 minutes the Patriots went from being discussed among the Greatest Teams in NFL history to being discussed among the Greatest Teams to not win a Super Bowl ring. It is amazing that we are now having this discussion about a team that has known nothing but post season success the last 7 seasons. This is a discussion we would expect to have about Dan Marino’s Dolphins or Peyton Manning’s Colts, not Tom Brady and the invincible Patriots.
I have charted the Patriots the entire season. I ranked their 6-0 start and there 12-0 start. Both were in the top 5 since 1960. I saw no reason to talk about their 16-0 start as it was obviously the best in NFL history. Now we get to rank their historic demise and not their historic achievement. Where do the 2007 Patriots rank among the best single season teams not to win a title?
I decided to use the same criteria in determining the best teams not to win the Super Bowl as I do the best teams to win one. My test for whether a team is an all time dominant team is pretty simple. 1) Were they the best team in their conference for the Regular Season and win at least .750 of their games? 2) Did they win the Super Bowl? 3) Did they finish first in either scoring offense or defense? 4) They were in the top 5 in the other category? If the answer is yes to all four questions then they were an All Time Dominant Team. The 1962 Packers, 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers, 1984 49ers, 1985 Bears, 1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, 1996 Packers, and 1999 Rams all accomplished this feat. Furthermore the 1994 49ers were 1st in scoring offense and 6th in scoring defense finishing out of the top 5 by less than 10 points
I didn’t select multiple teams from a dynasty, but rather took the best one. I put the 1984 49ers, 1989 49ers, and 1994 49ers in the discussion seeing that even though it was the same franchise many of the key players were different. Those were my 10 best single season teams since 1960 heading into this weekend, but not necessarily in that order.
I think it is a strong set of criteria when differentiating the various Super Bowl winning clubs. While you can argue about the 1998 Broncos, 1993 Cowboys, and 2004 Patriots it takes a lot of the subjectivity out of the debate and includes most of the teams that everyone always talks about.
Therefore I did the same thing for the teams that almost made it. I took into account the regular season. While the 1994 Cowboys had a great team, they were the second seed in the NFC and lost to the favored 49ers at San Fran. That doesn’t make them a top 10 disappointment. To make this list you had to have the best record in your conference that season and win more than .750 of the regular season games. I also looked at scoring offense, scoring defense, margin of victory. All of the teams on this list had point differentials of over 10.0 points per game. All had scoring offenses and defenses that were both in the top 10 for that season. Here is my list of the top 10 teams that almost made history:
5 Honorable Mentions: 1967 Oakland Raiders, 1973 LA Rams, 1984 Miami Dolphins, 1990 Buffalo Bills, 2006 San Diego Chargers
10) 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars
W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 24.8 ppg (6th of 31) Points Allowed: 13.6 ppg (1st of 31) Point Differential: 11.2 (2nd of 31)
Summary: They could beat everyone but Tennessee that season. If you take out the two regular season losses to Tennessee they beat their other opponents by 14.8 points per game. They featured a dangerous running game, solid QB, strong receivers, and the best defense in terms of points allowed. They had previous experience having played in the AFC Championship Game in the 1996 season. They had suffered setbacks in the 1997 and 1998 playoffs. This was their best team and this was their time. When they beat Miami 62-7 in the divisional round a Super Bowl appearance seemed to be a formality, especially seeing the Titans needed a Music City Miracle to escape with a home win over Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. That was until the Jags lost to the Titans 33-14 in the AFC Championship Game for the 3rd time that season. The Jags would not win another playoff game until they beat Pittsburgh in 2007. The Titans would go on to lose a very close game to the Rams in the Super Bowl leaving some unfinished business at the 1 yard line.
9) 1967 LA Rams: W-L: 11-1-2 Points Scored: 28.4 ppg (1st of 16) Points Allowed: 14.4 ppg (1st of 16) Point Differential: 14.4 ppg (1st of 16)
Summary: This is a forgotten almost great team in NFL history. They finished the season first in points scored, first in points allowed, and first in point differential. That is a very hard feat to accomplish even if there were only 16 teams in the league. After suffering a loss to San Fran in Week 4 and tying Baltimore and Washington in consecutive weeks after that they went on an 8 game winning streak. This team featured the Fearsome Foursome, 3 of which were named All Pro. Roman Gabriel was a Pro Bowl QB. The offense featured 5 Pro Bowlers and Charley Cowan who was named All Pro, but was not selected to the Pro Bowl. Due to no Wild Cards the Rams didn’t even have to go up against the second best team in the NFL which was the Baltimore Colts. The Colts were 11-1-2 as well and finished second in Points Scored, Points Allowed, and Point Differential. Due to the NFL’s playoff rules the Rams had to travel to Green Bay for the first round of the playoffs. In the Lombardi era that was a death sentence. Despite losing only one game by a field goal and having beaten the Packers by 3 points just 14 days prior, the Rams were smoked by the 9-4-1 Packers 28-7 in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers would go on to win the Ice Bowl and Super Bowl II. While the Rams had some solid squads after 1967 they would not make the Super Bowl until the 1979 season years after these players were a distant memory.
8) 1983 Washington Redskins W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 33.8 (1st of 28) Points Allowed: 20.7 (11th of 28) Point Differential: 13.1 (1st of 28)
Summary: Expectations were sky high this season. Even though 1982 was a strike shortened season the 1982 Redskins still brought home the Lombardi Trophy. They had a very similar team in place for 1983. They set a then NFL record for points with 541 points. The offense featured Joe Theisman, John Riggins, Art Monk, and The Hogs. Their defense was not spectacular but got the job done. They lost 2 games by one point each and were riding an 11 game winning streak into the Super Bowl, which included a 51-7 destruction of the LA Rams. However, someone forgot to tell the Raiders they didn’t have a chance and Marcus Allen’s famous 74 yard touchdown run helped lead the Raiders to a 38-9 victory over the heavily favored Redskins. The 12-4 Raiders were a solid team, but no one expected the Redskins to crash and burn like this. The Redskins would not return to the big stage until the 1987 season and by then Theisman and Riggins were no longer on the team.
7) 2001 St Louis Rams
W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 31.4 ppg (1st of 31) Points Allowed: 17.1 ppg (7th of 31) Point Differential: 14.3 ppg (1st of 31)
Summary: This wasn’t as good as the Greatest Show on Turf Team that exploded onto the scene in 1999. While there offense still scored a lot of points they weren’t as good as 1999 mainly because they turned the ball over too much. Warner had 22 interceptions or one pick every 24.8 attempts as opposed to the 13 interceptions or 1 interception every 38.4 attempts he had in 1999. Marshall Faulk was still the most dangerous back in the league. Bruce and Holt were fantastic receivers. Lovie Smith had been brought in to improve the defense from the team that was among the worst in the league in 2000. The result was a team that forced a lot of turnovers and made a lot of big plays on both sides of the ball. No one gave the Patriots a chance to win the Super Bowl. Tom Brady was not the All-Pro he is today. The Rams lost the Super Bowl on a field goal 20-17. The Rams were never the same. Warner would throw only 4 touchdowns over the next two years before ushering in the Marc Bulger era. They have not been in the playoffs consistently since. The Patriots would begin their run of 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.
6) 1992 San Francisco 49ers W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 26.9 ppg (1st of 28) Points Allowed: 14.7 ppg (3rd of 28) Point Differential: 12.2 ppg (1st of 28)
Summary: The 49ers were adjusting to life after Joe. After finishing 28-4 in the regular season in 1989 and 1990 the 49ers had made the switch to Steve Young. Joe Montana would miss the better part of 2 seasons with injuries. Steve Young led the 1991 49ers to a 10-6 record, but they missed the playoffs. However, they finished 1991 as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. In 1992 they picked up where they left off in 1991. Steve Young was the MVP of the league and led an offense that featured Jerry Rice, Ricky Waters, John Taylor, and Brent Jones. The defense ranked 3rd in the league. This looked like a team headed for the Super Bowl. In the last game of the regular season the 49ers had everything wrapped up and decided to play Joe Montana in a meaningless second half. It was his first game for Montana since the 1990 Championship Game loss to the NY Giants. He went 15-21 for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 picks. Suddenly the MVP of the league was in a local media QB controversy with arguably the greatest QB of all time. The 49ers offense never really looked the same that season. They struggled to beat the 9-7 Washington Redskins 20-13 before bowing out to 13-3 Dallas 30-20. Steve Young played like a guy looking over his shoulder. To Dallas’s credit they went on to crush the Buffalo Bills 52-17 in the Super Bowl. It would propel Dallas to 3 Super Bowl titles in 4 seasons. This 49ers team may have been the victim of running into a buzz saw that they simply weren’t capable of competing with. Dallas was a great team. Joe Montana was traded to Kansas City the next season and Steve Young would eventually escape The Shadow and win the Super Bowl 2 seasons later. However this was a fantastic team that not only got caught up in the pressure of winning it all but with the pressure of having a legend sitting on the bench. It would have been interesting to see how those playoffs would have gone had Montana just not played a meaningless second half against the Lions.
5) 2005 Indianapolis Colts
W-L: 14-2 Points Scored: 27.4 ppg (1st of 32) Points Allowed: 15.4 ppg (2nd of 32) Point Differential: 12.0 ppg (1st of 32)
Summary: This is the strangest team on the list. It was a team with two identities. Indy was coming off a season in which Peyton Manning had 49 touchdown passes. When the defense held 4 of their first 5 opponents to less than 10 points this team looked poised for greatness. However, the offense struggled in those games. Then the defense slipped but the offense kicked into high gear. They would start the season 13-0. Peyton Manning and the offense were still explosive. The defense looked better than any previous Manning team. The team had been battled tested in the playoffs having lost to New England in the AFC Championship Game 2 years prior. New England and Pittsburgh were both down this year. It appeared to be the Colt’s time. A couple things happened toward the end of the season. After losing to the Chargers 26-17 the Colts rested a lot of their players. It becomes the old debate. What is better, Momentum or Rest? They didn’t look very sharp in the Divisional Round against Pittsburgh. The scored only 3 points in the first 3 quarter of the game and lost 21-18 to a team they had beaten 26-7 just 5 games prior. The other thing that happened is that Tony Dungy’s son tragically committed suicide at the end of the season. This really put a damper on what should have been a terrific season. To the Colts credit the Steelers would go on to capture the Super Bowl. The Colts also bounced back in 2006 and were able to bring the Lombardi Trophy to Indianapolis. This was arguably the best team of the Peyton Manning era to date and unlike the 2007 version it was clearly the best team in the NFL. The fact that the 05 Colts didn’t even get a playoff win to show for this season was a very disappointing turn of events.
4) 1998 Minnesota Vikings W-L: 15-1 Points Scored: 34.7 ppg (1st of 30) Points Allowed: 18.5 ppg (6th of 30) Point Differential: 16.2 ppg (1st of 30)
Summary: This is where the list starts to get to be easy. You can argue about where a lot of the other teams rank. You can say that I should have put this team on the list or left this one off of it. To me these four are clearly the top ones on the list. I started with the 1998 Vikings because they had the worst defense of the top 4 teams, had the lowest point differential of the top 4 teams, and were the only one that didn’t qualify for the Super Bowl. The Cowboys, 49ers, and Packers had been the class of the NFC since 1992. While the Vikings had been good, they were never able to do anything in the playoffs. However one first round pick changed everything. The Vikings were probably the most feared offense prior to the 2007 Patriots. People will look at the Greatest Show on Turf. Others will look at the 83 Redskins. While those teams were great, they didn’t score 556 points in a season nor did they have Randy Moss at receiver. The rookie came in and turned the league into his own playground. He had a Thanksgiving game where he had only 3 catches but they went for 163 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chris Carter and Jake Reed were excellent receivers. Randall Cunningham enjoyed an unexpected rebirth. Robert Smith and Leroy Hoard combined for 1666 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns. Even though the Patriots scored more points, I believe this offense was much more balanced. On defense they were led by John Randle, Ed McDaniel, Dwayne Rudd, and Robert Griffin. While the defense did give up yards, they forced a lot of turnovers and were always playing with a 2 touchdown lead. The kicker was perfect on the season. It seemed this team had no weaknesses. The Vikings lost only one game on the season which was a 28-24 game at Tampa Bay. When the playoffs started the Vikings trashed the Cardinals 41-21. A Vikings vs. Broncos Super Bowl appeared to be in the works. However, the Falcons managed to keep the game close and when Gary Anderson missed his first field goal of the season the Falcons capitalized. They forced the game into overtime by scoring a touchdown and the Falcons would go on to beat the Vikings 30-27 in OT. While the Vikings would make the NFC Championship Game in 2000 they never got as close as they did in 1998. The Falcons would go on to be destroyed by the Broncos in the Super Bowl. They would not be relevant again until 2002 when they became the first road team to win a playoff game in Green Bay. That was with Michael Vick and mostly different players than the 1998 Falcons.
3) 1969 Minnesota Vikings W-L: 12-2 Points Scored: 27.1 ppg (1st of 16) Points Allowed: 9.5 ppg (1st of 16) Point Differential: 17.6 ppg (1st of 16)
Summary: This was hard. I couldn’t decide which team to put where. While the Colts had a slightly better record, the 1969 Vikings were 1st in scoring offense, defense, and point differential. They had scored 50 points on 3 different occasions in 1969, but also managed to hold their opponents under 10 points a game. The started and ended the season with a loss, but won 12 straight games in the middle. While Fran Tarkenton is the famous Viking QB from this era he had been traded to the NY Giants a few years earlier and had not yet returned to the Vikings. While they were 12th in passing yards they ranked 2nd in passing touchdowns. They were in the top 5 in rushing offense. The Purple People Eaters were as ferocious of a defensive front four as the league has ever seen. Alan Page and Carl Eller are both in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and Jim Marshall started 270 consecutive games for the Vikings. Bud Grant was the Head Coach. While the Vikings only beat the Rams 23-20 in the opening round of the playoffs they destroyed Cleveland 27-7. Then they played their worst game of the season and for the second straight year the NFL was upset in the Super Bowl by the AFL. The game was never close and the Chiefs dominated with a 23-7 victory. I think because the Vikings went on to be dominated in 3 more Super Bowls this team gets looked at a another Minnesota disappointment. While the Vikings also had a better QB and some great teams from 1973-76 when they lost those other 3 Super Bowls none of them were quite as statistically dominant as the 1969 team. This team had everything in place to be among the greatest champions in NFL history. Unfortunately for them they were not able to capitalize on the moment and turned the ball over too much to compete with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
2) 1968 Baltimore Colts W-L: 13-1 Points Scored: 28.7 ppg (2nd of 16) Points Allowed: 10.3 ppg (1st of 16) Point Differential: 18.4 ppg (1st of 16)
Summary: The Baltimore Colts had some very good teams in the Unitas era. They won back to back NFL Championships in 1958 and 1959. Their 1967 team may have been the best team in the history of the NFL to not qualify for the playoffs. However, this was by far their best product. I think people get too caught up in that the NFL had this false perception that they were better than the AFL. This team should have been favored to destroy the Jets whether that power struggle were present or not. They had a 7 game stretch where they posted 3 shutouts and allowed only 32 points. They scored 27 or more points in 10 of their 14 games. They also had 10 games where they allowed fewer than 10 points. 11 of their 13 regular season wins were by double digits. This was as dominant of a team as the NFL ever saw. After defeating Minnesota 24-14 in the opening playoff round they avenged their only loss to Cleveland in the NFL Championship game by defeating them 34-0. This team was ridiculously good. Although Johnny U is the quarterback people think of from the 60s Colts, Earl Morrall was playing most of the season for the injured Johnny Unitas. Morrall was an All-Pro. Tom Matte was the Pro Bowl running back. John Mackey and Willie Richardson were both All Pro Targets. The defense was littered with All Pros, most notably Billy Ray Smith Sr. and Mike Curits. Yet when the heavily favored Colts played the Jets they threw 4 interceptions and turned the ball over 5 times. The result was a Joe Namath guarantee, equality for the conferences, and a 16-7 loss. It is still arguably the greatest upset in Super Bowl history. The Colts switched conferences in 1970 and won the Super Bowl for the AFL. Many of these players were still on that team. However, nothing was as disappointing as losing the game that prevented them from joining the immortal.
1) 2007 New England Patriots W-L: 16-0 Points Scored: 36.8 ppg (1st of 32) Points Allowed: 17.1 ppg (4th of 32) Point Differential: 19.7 ppg (1st of 32)
Summary: I know that I talk about allowing things to shake out and not getting caught up in the moment. By putting them number one I am not saying that Super Bowl XLII was the greatest upset in the Super Bowl era. I still believe Super Bowl III was the biggest upset. I think the gap between the 1968 Jets and Colts heading into that game was greater than the gap between the 07 Giants and Patriots heading into their game. That is a different discussion. What I am saying is that I think the 2007 New England Patriots are the best team to not win a Super Bowl. I think you could put the 1968 Colts, 1969 Vikings, or the 1998 Vikings higher than the Patriots. There could be legitimate arguments for doing so. But considering everything that is in play I think the 2007 Patriots are the best team to not finish off their season with a title. Here are 8 reasons why:
1) Tom Brady – Nobody considers Joe Theisman, Randall Cunningham, Joe Kapp, or Earl Morrall to be among the greatest QBs of all time. Tom Brady is not only a First Ballot Hall of Fame QB, but enjoyed arguably had the best statistical season in the history of the NFL. 398 completions, 578 attempts, 68.9 completion percentage, 4806 yards, 50 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions. His interception total of 8 was lower than his yards per attempt of 8.3. He was ridiculously good this season. The quarterback is the face of the franchise and none of 10 teams on this list had a better QB.
2) Randy Moss – Randy Moss had arguably the best receiving season of the Super Bowl era. He had 98 catches for 1493 yards and an NFL record 23 touchdowns. No one since Jerry Rice’s 1987 season had had more than 18 touchdowns in a single season.
3) Bill Belichick – You are talking about a guy who had a 14-2 record as the coach of the Patriots in the playoffs since 2001. He has 3 Super Bowl rings. He was looking to join Chuck Noll as the only Head Coach to go 4-0 in the Super Bowl. He is in the discussion for best Head Coaches ever.
4) 3 previous Super Bowl Titles – No one on the list had more than 1 previous title other than the 1992 49ers. Joe Montana was not the 49ers QB that season nor were a lot of the key players from the previous Super Bowl teams still with the 49ers. While some of the 2007 Patriots were not present for the other 3 titles the Head Coach, QB, and many of the other core players were on some if not all of those previous Patriots teams.
5) 589 points scored – It was an NFL record for points scored in a single season. The Patriots averaged 41.1 points in their first 10 games of the 2007 season. Only 5 teams (Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Packers had 411 or more points over the entire 16 game season).
6) 274 points allowed – On paper it was the 4th best defense in the NFL. 274 points allowed in 16 games is not All Time Great, but it was still pretty good. The defense saved them in the Chargers game and almost saved them in the Super Bowl.
7) 18-0 – The closest anyone had come to the 1972 Dolphins were the 1985 Bears who went 12-0 before losing their first game. They finished that season 18-1. The 1998 Broncos and 2005 Colts started 13-0 and finished 14-2. No one had come as close as the Patriots did this season.
8) The Super Bowl was competitive – While the 2007 Giants will not go down as an all time great team, unlike the 1968 Colts and 1969 Vikings who were manhandled in the Super Bowl, the Patriots had the Giants down to their last play. The Patriots were for all intents and purposes beaten on a 32 yard circus catch that will go down as one of the greatest in the history of the Super Bowl.
While all of the other teams have some compelling story lines no one brings that body of work to the table. There is nothing the Patriots or anyone else in the NFL can do going forward to diminish that body of work. It will be interesting to see how history remembers these 2007 Patriots. The standard for excellence is winning the Lombardi Trophy. The 2007 Patriots came up short in that regard.
Clearly there are Super Bowl winners that are not as good as the 2007 Patriots. The same can be said for a lot of the other teams on my list. Some years the bar is higher than others. Some will say that how the Patriots are viewed will be determined by how long their accomplishments stand the test of time. If 18-0 to start a season, 50 touchdown passes, 23 touchdown receptions, and 589 points still stand in 50 years that will speak volumes about the 2007 Patriots. I disagree. No one had ever done what the Patriots did prior to this season. They will have either a) Changed the way the game was played forever or, b) Done something that happens once in a lifetime. Either way that it was an impressive season.
The fact of the matter is that all of the teams on this list had some shortcomings. For the 83 Redskins, 98 Vikings, and 05 Colts the defense wasn’t quite good enough even if the scoring numbers suggested otherwise. For the 2001 Rams they turned the ball over too much. For as dominant as the Patriots were in 2007 they still had 2 short comings: 1) They were too slow on defense. While the Patriots were very strong on the defensive line and the corners, but they were very slow in the middle of the defense. In particular Bruscki, Harrison, and Seau. While that translated into good redzone defense because the field was shorter people were able to figure out how to move the ball downfield and keep the Patriots offense on the sideline in the second half of the season. 2) They just didn’t have enough offensive scoring balance. While the Brady and Moss show was fun to watch, they just didn’t get enough scoring out of the other offensive players. Almost half of Brady’s TD passes were to Moss. Their starting tailbacks only accounted for 9 rushing touchdowns. Stallworth was for the most part nonexistent. Wes Welker had a fantastic season, but from Week 11 to Week 17 he had 1 touchdown catch. Once teams figured out how to limit Moss and contain the other players it was possible to keep up with the Patriots. People weren’t afraid of the Patriots in the second half of the season like they were in the first half of the season.
In the first 10 games the Patriots averaged an unbelievable 41.1 points per game. They started off the season on fire, peaked from Week 6 to Week 11 when they scored over 48 points in 4 out of 5 games. Everyone was in the endzone. The average score those weeks was 45.8 to 18.4. The only reason it was that close is the 24-20 game against the then undefeated Indianapolis Colts is averaged into that total.
After Week 11 they never really were the same dominant team. Sure they won all of their games, but the competition wasn’t as good either. They won by an average of 29.6 to 19.5. That was a far cry from the beginning of the season. As people started to figure out some things about the Patriot’s offense the games got a lot closer. They beat the Eagles without McNabb by only 3 points. They beat the Ravens by only 3 points without McNair. They beat the Giants by only 3 points and trailed in that game by 12 points. The once victorious Dolphins shutout the Patriots in the second half in New England. The Patriots only beat the Jets 20-10 in New England. The Patriots won their 2 playoff games by a combined score of 52-32. They just didn’t progress very well over the course of the season.
The only good games they played after Week 11 considering the competition was the regular season game against the Steelers and the wildcard game against the Jaguars. The Steelers game was close at the half and the Jaguars game was competitive well into the 4th quarter.
Had they won the Super Bowl, I would have struggled to put them over the other gigantic single season teams because of how the Patriots finished the season combined with how ordinary they had looked in the playoffs. While those teams did not have the same beginning to the regular season the Patriots did they were much better in the postseason. Those teams got better as their seasons progressed.
The media and Patriots fans did a very good job of protecting this team. If you dared say the Patriots weren’t playing that well people would remind you that they were undefeated and in the midst of a historic season. You were labeled a Patriot hater. With the Patriots not losing it was pretty hard to argue against that.
I think history will remember the 2007 Patriots as arguably the best passing offense in the history of the NFL along with the 1984 Dolphins and 2004 Colts. Seeing they put up 50 touchdown passes and 589 points it is hard to argue with that. I think people will remember them as the greatest team not to win the Super Bowl. Finally, I think history will remember them in the conversation of top 25 single season all time great NFL teams. Similar to how history regards the 1991 UNLV Running Rebels in college basketball; too good in the regular season to overlook, but not good enough to be among the very elite without a title.
Just as Vegas losing by 2 points in the Final Four doesn’t prevent them from being a historic team; it seems hard for me to believe that the 2007 Patriots won’t be either. People aren’t going to forget about the 2007 Patriots because they didn’t win a ring. The Patriots were a handful of plays from completing a perfect season. I don’t think 3 or 4 plays take a team from being a in the discussion of Greatest Teams of All Time to absolutely nothing. I don’t believe history can hinge that much on just a few plays.
That said I think the Patriots failed miserably in joining the debate for the very Best Teams in NFL History. That standard is much different. The 2007 Patriots are not the Best of the Best. They are not on par with the other dominant teams of the last 50 years. While the 1962 Packers, 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers, 1984 49ers, 1985 Bears, 1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, 1994 49ers, 1996 Packers, and 1999 Rams might not have had a strength as good as Brady and Moss they didn’t have the weaknesses in the middle of the defense that limited the Patriots over the second half of the season. They weren’t as reliant on one offensive weapon in Randy Moss. These teams were more unstoppable because they had better overall balance on both sides of the football. While that better balance may not have translated into as many regular season wins it translated into the more important achievement, postseason dominance and the Lombardi Trophy.
That probably would have been the case had the 2007 Patriots won the Super Bowl. While they would have had the best record of any of the all time great teams they also would have had the least balance. The only difference is that it would have created a screaming match with Patriots fans about how 19-0 made them the best ever. The Patriots losing the Super Bowl makes that debate a slam dunk. While history doesn’t hinge on one or two plays there still is a very thin line between mortality and immortality.
What are your thoughts? Did I get it right that the Patriots are still a historic team, just not an All Time Great Team? Does their failure to win the Super Bowl make them a distant memory next season? Are they the Greatest Team to not finish their season with a Super Bowl Trophy? Let me know your thoughts.
And that is why they play the game. On Saturday New England was on the cusp of creating NFL history. On Monday they are the victim of one of the greatest upsets in NFL history. The New York Giants concluded their improbable Super Bowl run with a 17-14 victory. Here is my recap of the Super Bowl.
MVP of the Super Bowl: The voters got it right. Eli Manning led two 4th quarter touchdown scoring drives to win MVP honors. Honorable mention to the Front 4 of the NY Giants who kept putting pressure on Brady all day and disrupted their offensive flow. It would have been impossible to pick which lineman was more valuable. You could have gone a number of different ways as the NY Giants had many deserving candidates. Eli was as good of a choice as any as his poise in the 4th quarter saved the day. They are truly a team in every sense of the word.
LVP of the Super Bowl: Plenty of blame to go around. Laurence Maroney and his 14 carries for 36 yards was not what the Patriots were hoping for. Randy Moss and his 5 catches for 62 yards were good but not great. While Brady had 266 yards passing, no picks, and an 82.5 rating we have seen him play better. Samuels dropped a big pick. Other than Welker and Thomas no one had a really big day. But the LVP is definitely the offensive line. They didn’t open up holes for Maroney, Brady was sacked 5 times, and pressured countless other times. The result was that Brady was not able to go down the field and the Patriots couldn’t make the big offensive plays they needed for victory. Their 14 points was their worst offensive effort of the season and was caused by the pressure of the Giants.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I have to go with the Little Red Riding Hood’s decision to go for it on 4th and 13. I don’t mind aggressive play calls. However, I think that crossed the aggressive realm and bordered on the stupid. 1) Giving the team the ball at their 31 as opposed to their 38 was not going to change the complexion of that game, 2) It was 4th and 13 not 4th and 1. That is a very low percentage situation, 3) If he was that worried about field position have your kicker or QB pooch kick it to pin the Patriots back. My impression was that this was a Hall of Fame Coach that tried to get too cute and it might have cost him the game. While there were a lot of other big plays that happened in between that call and the final outcome of the game, that was a very bad decision and gave the Giants momentum. He should know better than that.
Hospital Visit: There were no serious injuries in the game.
Coaching Carousel: One consequence of the outcome of the Super Bowl game is that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is going to be pursued to take the Washington Head Coaching job. To the victors go the spoils and he improved his stock in the last 5 games more than any coordinator in the league. In Week 15 he would have generated very little interest. It will be interesting to see whether or not Daniel Snyder’s decision to hire the entire coaching staff before the Head Guy will play any role in Steve Spagnuolo’s decision.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) My congratulations to the Giants fans and condolences to the Patriots fans – First off, congratulations to the NY Giants. They are a very deserving champion. To beat the 13-3 Cowboys, 13-3 Packers, and 16-0 Patriots on the road or at a neutral site is an amazing story. Those 3 games were decided by 10 points and produced 3 of the best playoff games in recent years. I also offer my condolences to the Patriots fans. I remember in 1997 how devastated I was when the Packers lost to the Broncos in the Super Bowl. I felt robbed of a repeat. I was robbed of the chance to see #4 get his second ring. People would have talked about the 1996-97 Packers with the Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers, and Packers teams of the past that repeated. It would have been historically significant for the Packer franchise. Instead the 96 Packers are remembered as a great one year team and the 1997 team was almost great. That was a tough loss to ####. The 1997 Packers team was very good, but not undefeated good. I can’t imagine what it would feel like to be a Patriots player, coach, owner, or fan today. It has to be a very sick and empty feeling.
2) Was this the greatest Upset Ever? - I would say no. The 5 greatest upsets in all of sports in my opinion are 1) 1980 US Hockey team defeating Russia on the way to a Gold Medal, three Final Four games, 2) 1983 NC State defeating Houston in the Championship, 3) 1985 Villanova defeating Georgetown in the Championship, and 4) 1991 Duke defeating UNLV in the semi-finals, and 5) Buster Douglas defeating Mike Tyson. This just doesn’t top those in my book. Remember that Russia had destroyed the USA with the same squads earlier that year. NC State was going up against two future Hall of Famers and Nova was going up against Patrick Ewing and a dominant Georgetown squad. Neither winner had a great pro player. Vegas had beaten Duke by 30 points in the Championship Game just one year prior and Vegas was in the discussion for greatest college basketball team ever. Mike Tyson was the most feared Heavy Weight Fighter in the world when he lost to Douglas. He was capable of knocking anyone out seconds into the opening round. Those 5 underdogs were given no chance prior to that game. While the Patriots matched the dominance aspect of the other upset victims, I don’t believe the NY Giants were considered the type of underdog that was those other opponents. While they were an unlikely Super Bowl participant they had lost 38-35 to the Patriots just 5 weeks ago. That didn’t suggest this would be a blowout. While I thought the Patriots would win I was expecting a close game. Close games can go either way. I was not expecting a blowout like those other 5 events. In terms of Super Bowl upsets I think it ranks in the top five along with 1) 1968 Colts, 2)1969 Vikings, 3) 1990 Buffalo Bills, 4) 1997 Packers, and 5) 2001 Rams being the other victims on Super Bowl Sunday.
3) Was this the Greatest Super Bowl Ever? – This is annoying to me. Anytime a good Championship Game was played people want to race to call it the Best Ever. I think the greatest College Bowl Game ever has occurred in the last 5 consecutive years. Great and Greatest is thrown around too easily. I do not evaluate Super Bowls until at least 10 years after the fact. In my mind Super Bowls need the following things to be great, 1) It has to have been a competitive contest down to the wire, 2) It has to involve Hall of Famers on both sides of the football, and 3) it has to affect or shape the course of NFL history. In my mind the two greatest Super Bowls ever played were Super Bowl XIII between the Steelers and Cowboys and Super Bowl XXXII between the Packers and Broncos. Super Bowl XIII determined whether or not the Cowboys or Steelers would be the team of the 70s. There were Hall of Fame Coaches on Both sides. Hall of Fame QBs. Hall of Fame RBs. Steel Curtain vs. Doomsday Defense. 35-31 score. That game had it all. It is number one in my book. A very close second is Super Bowl XXXII as it determined a lot of things about the 1990s. While the Cowboys were the team of the decade the Broncos went on to claim back to back titles and prevent the Packers from doing so. Elway got his first Super Bowl win against another Hall of Fame QB in Brett Favre. The game snapped a long AFC losing streak in the Super Bowl and was the transition toward AFC supremacy in recent years. The 31-24 score was very competitive and the result was in doubt until the very end. While the XXXIV was an exciting finish, the Rams and Titans lacked a lot of those elements and is therefore lower on my list. Time has allowed that to play out. Unlike that game, this game has a better chance to join those super Super Bowls. It was competitive down to the very end. It altered the course of NFL history by ruining a perfect season for New England. If the Patriots fail to win another Super Bowl or the NY Giants go on to win another Super Bowl it is a pivotal point in NFL history as well. This might be the game that shifts the power back to the NFC. The game has the potential to join some of the other epic performances, but give it some time before jumping to conclusions. If it truly was an epic game history will reflect that even more in 10 years than it does the day after. No need to throw Greatest around the day after.
4) The effect on Legacies –
a) Brady – I think he is the least touched by this. I didn’t think winning this game would make him the best QB of all time. Therefore it would be unfair for me to say that losing it disqualifies him from that distinction. The damage is more in losing with an undefeated team than losing in the Super Bowl. Still he is only one player responsible. He isn’t Tiger Woods playing an individual game. This was about the good plays his team didn’t have time to make than the bad plays that cost him the game. However, this game showed a couple things to me. First, how many people want to still call me an #### for saying that Randy Moss was the MVP of this season? The Patriots were averaging 41.1 points per game in their first 10 games. That dropped to 27.1 points per game in their final 9 games. The difference was that the league caught on to Randy Moss. In the first 10 games he had 66 catches for 1052 yards and 16 touchdowns. The result was the Patriots were more explosive than anytime in the Brady area. In the last 9 games he had 39 catches for 539 yards and 8 touchdowns. Good numbers, but not like the first 10 games. In the playoffs he disappeared and the result was the scores got a lot closer and there was more pressure on the defense. Unlike other teams Brady and the other Patriots were still able to win almost all of their games with their best offensive skill player’s production being limited. However, unlike the first meeting the Patriots were not able to produce the points they needed to beat the Giants. Wes Welker is a good player, but he can’t do the things Randy Moss does. He is not a game changing receiver. I am taking the same approach to Brady’s game as I did with Favre 2 weeks ago. He picked a day to not have his best game on a day when he needed to play his best. Part of that was his line and part of that was on him. While he was able to give the Patriots the lead with a little over 2 minutes left in the game there were too many plays left on the field by an offense that was capable of so much more. Brady is still an all time great to me; he just reminded us that he is human. While he now has a Super Bowl defeat on his resume and lost a perfect season he is only 1 player on that roster and that blame does not fall solely on his shoulders. His legacy is still very secure and he could still recover from this to be the best QB in NFL history if he continues to have great regular and post season success going forward.
b) Bill Belichick – He takes a lot harder hit for this. This may prevent him from being the best NFL Coach of all time. While he is still a Hall of Fame caliber coach he was chasing after immortality. The thing I question is going for it on 4th and 13 from his 31. Don’t go for it on a long pass when your line has shown no ability to protect your quarterback to protect 8 yards of field position. That was a bad decision at a key moment by a guy that should have known better. I can’t see Halas, Landry, Lombardi, Noll, or Shula making that type of decision in that big of a spot. There is a difference in being aggressive and foolish. Lombardi went for a quarterback sneak on 3rd and goal with no timeouts from the 1 yard line in the Ice Bowl. He didn’t go for it on 4th and 13. I don’t hold The Hood solely responsible for the loss or that decision as the biggest factor, but I don’t think he put his team in the best possible situation to win that ball game. What differs from Brady in this situation is that he didn’t have 4 defensive linemen rushing at him when he made that decision. He made a bad decision and had an average game plan in his biggest moment. The game plan did not work and he is as responsible as anyone for that. Fair or not, this loss will be used against him when discussing the greatest NFL Head Coaches of all time.
c) The Patriots Dynasty – This takes the biggest hit of all. Every dynasty lost playoff games. The 60s Packers lost the NFL Championship 17-13 to the Eagles. The 1976 Steelers lost the AFC Title Game to the Raiders. The 1986 49ers lost to the NY Giants 49-3. The 1994 Cowboys lost to the San Fran 49ers 38-28. That isn’t the problem. The problem is that all of those dynasties won with their best team. The 1962 Packers closed their season with a title. The 1978 Steelers won it all. Same with the 1984 49ers, 1989 49ers, and 1993 Cowboys. While the previous Patriots teams were great, this one was special. The other 3 Patriot Champions won by a single field goal. This one set an NFL record for points. They had a great scoring differential. It had the looks of an all time dominant team capable of delivering a 55-10 blow like the 89 49ers. It didn’t deliver against a team that was not an All Time Great Team. Instead of being in the top 5 for Greatest Teams ever the 2007 Patriots are contending for the Greatest Single Season Team not to win a title. Furthermore, the Patriots weren’t exactly clicking on all cylinders in the playoffs like a 1985 Bears or 1989 49ers. Had they won this game they would have been in the discussion with those other dynasties but not had the signature wins the 85 Bears or 89 49ers had. By losing the Super Bowl they have nothing. That doesn’t mean their other 3 Super Bowls are meaningless. That dynasty is still secure. They are still above the 70s Cowboys, 80s Bears, 90s Packers and Broncos, or some of the other teams that had good runs but didn’t get the hardware these Patriots received. However in going up against the 60s Packers, 70s Steelers, 80s 49ers, or 90s Cowboys there is no margin for error. This loss prevents them from reaching that lofty status.
d) Eli Manning – I’m not sure what this does for his legacy, because legacies are hard to establish in year 4. On the one hand he is no longer a first round bust like he was 5 weeks ago. He was an intrigual part of a Super Bowl team that drafted him. On the other hand, the defensive line is going to be remembered for this dominating run as much as he is. While he put up solid number throughout the postseason they were not out of this world. The fact is that all Super Bowl QBs have help in winning it all. It is a team game. Manning took the most difficult step, which is to win a title. Now he needs to put together a solid regular season. As he starts to build those his legacy will only continue to grow. If he reverts back to 20 TDs and 17 interceptions it will not diminish what he achieved this postseason but will continue to hinder him from joining the elite QBs.
5) Mercury Morris needs to get a Life – Most of the 1972 Dolphins are pretty classy individuals. They should be proud that their achievement is still in tact.
