I'm going to be away
from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the
blogger world. I appreciate everyone that commented on the various
divisions. What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments
from various fans.
I'm going to leave an
open question for people to comment on.
This is a very simple
question. What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it
comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the
greatest concern?
Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look
forward to reading the comments when I get back.
This is my fifth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC North is a division that has some of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams and their fans really do not like each other. The Bengals appeared to be poised to dominate the division after an 11-5 record with a young offensive core in 2005. The Steelers beat them in the Wildcard Round, won the Super Bowl, and appeared to be in complete control of the division. The Bengals have been irrelevant since. The Steelers didn’t even make the playoffs after their Super Bowl win and the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens remerged in 2006. Then the Ravens crashed to 5-11 as the Steelers took back the division. Forgotten, have been the Cleveland Browns, who came out of nowhere to win 10 games in 2007. They were one of the biggest surprises in 2007. As big free agency spenders they look to take the division for the first time since 1989.
The AFC North has been a wide-open race the last few years. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC North.
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 393(9th)
Points Allowed: 269 (2nd)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 153-103 (.598) (1st in NFL)
Strengths: The Steelers were a great statistical team in 2007. They finished 2nd in points allowed, in large part due to the 27 points they gave up to Baltimore resting starters the last game of the season. Indy led the league with 262 points allowed. The Steelers did finish 1st in yards allowed. They were 3rd in rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Mike Tomlin did a great job with this team in his first season as a NFL Head Coach.
On offense they also did well. Big Ben had only 3,154 yards passing, but recorded 32 touchdown passes. The reason for that is the Steelers threw a lot in the redzone. While the Steelers 2,168 rushing yards was 3rd in the NFL, their 9 rushing touchdowns were 22nd. With Willie Parker coming back from injury, the Steelers got a gift by having Rashard Mendenhall fall to the 23rd pick. The Steelers figure to have a formidable running attack for years to come. They should get more rushing touchdowns in 2008, so long as they can replace Alan Faneca. He is a 7-time Pro Bowler and 5-time first-team All Pro, 4 of which were between 2004 to last season. That is difficult to replace and even though the Jets overpaid for the 30 plus year old guard, the Steelers have some large shoes to fill.
They also got some receiver help. They weren’t bad there to begin with. Hines Ward is starting to drop in productivity, but is still a great blocker and team leader. He is consistently around the 1,000-yard mark with 7-10 touchdowns. Santonio Holmes is entering the magical 3rd year for wide receivers and looks to be on the verge of a breakout year. I expect him to solidify himself as the number one option. Limas Sweed is the tall receiver Big Ben wanted and should fit in well. He is a good endzone and 3rd down target. Heath Miller is a fantastic tight end.
The Steelers figure to be in the top 10 of the league in scoring in 2008 again. With the defense they have, that should mean another divisional title.
Weaknesses: Here is the million-dollar question. How does a team that finishes 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, 9th in points scored, and throws the 6th fewest interceptions finish 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs?
The problems were two-fold. The Steelers were a terrible road team. They were 7-2 at home, with their sole losses coming to Jacksonville in the regular season and playoffs. Losing to the same team twice at home was a Steeler first.
3-5 on the road is just not good enough. Furthermore those road wins were against Cleveland, Cincy, and St Louis. This team has to show better on the road against the good teams in the NFL.
The second problem was the team finished bad. After starting the season 9-3, they finished 1-4, including the playoff loss. I will give the Steelers a bit of a pass on the playoff loss, as not having Willie Parker was huge. The Steelers need play action to succeed in the passing game and that injury limited them. They also lost Aaron Smith, which hurt their run defense at the end of the season. Troy Polamalu, one of the best safeties in all of football played only 11 games last year. He missed 4 of the last 6 games in the regular season. They had some key players that were not right and were essential parts to their team.
Still injuries were not the only reason they fell short. What they need to do is get more sacks and more turnovers. The Steelers had only 11 interceptions, which was tied for last in the NFL. They are traditionally too good at pressuring the quarterback to finish that low.
Sacks were also part of their problem last year. Their 36 sacks ranked 13th in the NFL, but there wasn’t much separation between them and a team like Miami, which ranked 24th with 30.0. They need to get into the high 40s or low 50s in sacks to join the likes of the Giants (53) and Patriots (47). Increases in sacks and interceptions will help this team win more games on the road.
On offense, they need to give up fewer sacks. The Steelers tied for 7th most sacks allowed in the NFL with sacks allowed at 47. To put that in perspective the Colts and Patriots allowed a combined 44 sacks. Part of that is the offensive line. They need to pass block as well as they run block. Part of that is Big Ben. He has to get rid of the ball better and have better pocket presence.
The Steelers have to win with him being a bigger part of the offense. He has led a team to a Super Bowl, is just entering his prime, and that seems strange to say about a guy that threw 32 touchdown passes last year and made the Pro Bowl, but here is my point on that.
Big Ben threw almost 60% of his 32 touchdowns in 5 games. He totaled 19 touchdowns in wins at Cleveland, at Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and at St Louis. The Steelers were just 3-2 in those games. That means in the other 11 games he had just 13 touchdown passes and the Steelers went 7-4 in those games.
In their 3 biggest blowouts he had 11 touchdown throws (at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at St Louis), but he attempted 23, 16, and 20 passes. His best games are when he throws the ball the least. The more he throws the ball, the worse the Steelers are. That is true of a lot of teams, but 30 passes is not that many passes in the NFL. It would be different if we were talking about when he throws 50 passes.
If the Steelers are going to improve on their 2007 campaign that have to be able to rely less on play action and rolling him out of the pocket. While that is a great dimension to have it should be icing on the cake, not be the focal point of the passing offense. He really needs to become better in the pocket if he is going to join the elite signal callers in the NFL.
Prediction: I really liked the Steelers draft and think they have an excellent chance to compete in the AFC. Their struggle is in the schedule, the most difficult in the NFL. They have a brutal stretch where they play Week 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indy, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincy, 13) New England, 14) Dallas.
That is six 2007 playoff teams in seven weeks, which includes the two Super Bowl representatives and 3 of the 4 teams that earned first round byes. I was tempted to pick Cleveland, because they have Denver and Buffalo instead of San Diego and New England, but I resisted that temptation.
The Steelers have owned this division for a long time. They have a great defense, much better than Cleveland. The Steelers are 44-20 since 2004, which is the first year Big Ben joined the team. Other than the Super Bowl hangover season, which included a coach on the way out and Big Ben’s big motorcycle incident the Steelers have been the class of this division and won 10 games or more every other year.
Cleveland is probably going to make the playoffs this year, but they have to prove to me they can beat the Steelers before I pick them to overtake the Steelers. The Steelers don’t have a glaring weakness like the Browns pass defense. That said, Pittsburgh has an impossible schedule and will have to play better than they did last year if they want to repeat as division champs. I think they will do that.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record: 11-5 – AFC North Divisional Champion; AFC #4 Seed
2) Cleveland Browns
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 402 (8th)
Points Allowed: 382 (21st)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Browns had an offensive juggernaut in 2007. That said, it was anything but expected. They looked like the worst team in the league in their 34-7 opening day loss to the Steelers. They did nothing well and Crennel shipped his starter, Frye, out after the Week 1 debacle.
That was a puzzling move, but Anderson responded with 328 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Bengals the very next week. He finished with 3,787 yards and 29 touchdown passes. He appears safe as the starter, but has an anxious Brady Quinn waiting in the wings. If Anderson struggles early, the calls for Quinn will come quick and loud.
The Browns have great talent at the skill positions. Braylon Edwards finally settled into the role of star receiver with 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had that magical 3rd year breakout season. Kellen Winslow, Jr also had 1,106 yards and 5 touchdowns. Both are young and coming into their own. They added Stallworth to the mix, which should really help the offense. He gives them a speed threat opposite of Edwards and should open up the middle of the field for Winslow, Jr. That puts Joe Jurevicius at his best position, which is a 3rd receiver.
Jamal Lewis rediscovered his legs and had 1,304 yards and 9 touchdowns. Keep in mind that 4 of those 9 touchdowns came against Seattle and 308 yards came in 2 games against Cincinnati. He needs to spread his production more evenly across the schedule. Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison played well in stretches last year and could contribute in a larger role this season.
Josh Cribbs is an excellent return threat and if it weren’t for Hester would be looking to claim the title as best return man in the NFL. The Browns finished 8th in points scored in 2007. With another year together they should be poised to do even more in 2008.
Weaknesses: The Browns had two weaknesses. First, and foremost was the defense. 21st in points allowed. 30th in yards allowed, 31st in 1st downs allowed, 24th in passing yards allowed, and 27th in rushing yards allowed. This was one of the worst units in the league and prevented them from doing bigger things in 2007.
Enter a free agent spending spree. They signed Shaun Rodgers and traded a 2nd round pick for Corey Williams. Davis, Jackson, McGinest, and Wimbley are solid linebackers. The front 7 should be improved with the addition of those two linemen. I expect them to stop the run better and put more pressure on the quarterback.
The problem is they didn’t address the secondary. Sean Jones is a good safety and had 5 picks last year. They lost Bodden in the Rogers trade and Holly was lost for the season in May with an injury. Terry Cousin is going to be called on to play big minutes and the Browns may have to go corner hunting on the waiver wire. They lack a shutdown corner. They didn’t have any draft picks to address the need with those picks belonging to Dallas (Quinn trade) and Green Bay (Williams trade).
That is not a good thing given the weapons the Steelers and Bengals have. They are going to need to score a lot of points, because their defense, while improved is still not among the strongest units in the NFL. The good thing is they are capable of doing that.
Prediction: I wanted to pick the Browns based on their slew of offensive weapons. I thought better of it and remembered that the defensive component does help. While the Steelers have a tougher schedule, they have the better team, which usually comes out on top. Also, keep in mind the Brown won 10 games with an easy schedule in 2007. This year figures to be more difficult this season.
Still, they are going to cause match up problems for teams with their speed at wide receiver and the points they can put up in bunches. They won with a bad defense last year and they should be even better on offense in 2008. There is no reason this team cannot win 10 games. If they can do that they should be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. It is much deserved for the Dawg Pound, which has been thirsting for a winner for a long time.
Cleveland Browns’ Record: 10-6 – AFC North 2nd Place; AFC #6 Seed
3) Cincinnati Bengals
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 380 (11th)
Points Allowed: 385 (24th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Bengals have a great passing attack. Palmer had his 2nd consecutive 4,000-yard season and had 26 touchdown passes. The only off part for him was his 20 interceptions. He is one of the best passers in the NFL, but has yet to be consistently surrounded with a good defense that can get the Bengals into the playoffs.
TJ Houshmandzadeh busted out for 112 catches and 12 touchdowns. Chad Johnson had 1,440 yards and 8 touchdowns. Those 2 players are as productive as any receiving duo in the NFL. They cause nightmares for defensive coordinators and are perfect compliments.
Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson combined for 1,260 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. While the Bengals only ranked 24th in rushing yards those two gave them enough considering the potency of the passing attack. The problem is the Bengals were forced to throw out of necessity in a lot of games and not choice. Their defense gave up too many points for the backs to get enough carries.
Shayne Graham is one of the best kickers in the business. He is accurate, kicks for distance, and has been an elite level kicker for the last few seasons.
Weaknesses: This team’s main weakness was defense. Defensive guru Marvin Lewis has never been able to fix that since arriving in Cincy. In 2005 and 2006 they forced a high number of turnovers to offset their large number of points. Their high-flying offense could make up for that.
Last year the Bengals were 24th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in passing yards allowed. While they were still 6th in interceptions with 19, it wasn’t nearly enough to win games, given that they were turning the ball over a lot and not running the ball well.
They lost their best defensive lineman in Justin Smith. He signed with San Fran. They added Keith Rivers at linebacker in the draft. However, they had to add wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd round in the event Ocho Cinco is a no show. That hurt them from upgrading the defense even more. It is still going to be exploited in 2008.
In past years Rudi Johnson was a threat. He was good for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Last year he was hurt most of the year and the Bengals were too one dimensional on offense. That was a big reason for Palmer’s 20 interceptions. He threw 25 in 2005 and 2006 combined.
The biggest problem is this team’s attitude. This is the weakest team in terms of mental toughness in the NFL. That starts with the front office. They had a roster of players that should have starred in the Longest Yard. Chris Henry and Odell Thurman were released because of their constant brushes with the law. Both were talented players that did not live up to expectations off the field.
That did not discourage the Bengals from drafting Jason Shirley from Fresno State. Shirley's received a two-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team in August. He was suspended for a 2nd time in October on su####ion of driving under the influence and hit-and-run. Shirley was reinstated on November 15, but two days later, he was dismissed from the school after he was cited for su####ion of driving with a suspended license and expired registration.
Most teams would have moved on to the next player on their Big Board. The Bengals were perfectly comfortable drafting someone with that record. As long as they continue to draft players of that character, they will continue to have these problems. Adding a 5th round problem child doesn’t ruin a team. But the fact that they even drafted him given the problems they have had shows the mentality of that front office. Character is not a priority in Cincy. Management is as much responsible for the problems they have had in recent years as the players who have not been able to stay out of trouble. You can’t keep ignoring character and not expect to have these problems.
Then there is Chad Johnson. I can understand his frustration and the Bengals should have traded him. However, his attempt to acquire a trade this offseason has been nothing short of a circus. He was quoted as saying this in a June 3rd, 2008 article by Dave Fleming for ESPN Magazine, "It's the reinvention of Ocho Cinco," he says. "I'm dead serious. People need to take me as I am because I just don't give a [expletive] anymore. That's how I'd sum up my attitude for the next season."
That’s fantastic coming from one of your offensive leaders and best players. He has transformed himself from a funny and enjoyable player to a TO type player in just a couple seasons. I like Chad Johnson, but he needs to get back to the old Chad Johnson before I am going to resume enjoying him. Also, TJ Houshmandzadeh is missing mini camps looking for a new contract.
There are enough good players here, but no one appears to be on the same page. Winning is secondary at this point in Cincinnati for both the players and front office.
Prediction: The schedule is too tough for the Bengals to be playing against themselves. Pittsburgh is still good and Cleveland is fast improving. The AFC South and NFC East had 6 playoff teams in 2006. There just aren’t a lot of winnable games.
The sad thing is that quarterback is one of the hardest positions to fill and the Bengals have a great talent there. They are wasting away the prime years of Carson Palmer’s career by not adding a defense and having their skill players bicker. I feel bad for him, because I think he is a good character guy. He deserves better. It is a shame he has to play in such chaos.
The Bengals will outscore some people and win games with their offense. However, turnovers, lack of a running game, lack of defense, lack of mental toughness, and lack of teamwork will be too much to overcome against a tough schedule. If they are not careful, they could fight there way to the bottom and finish in last place in the AFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Record: 5-11 – AFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Baltimore Ravens
07 Record: 5-11
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: It is really hard to say anything good about the Baltimore Ravens 2007 season. They were coming off a 13-3 season and had acquired Willis McGahee. They were expected by many to compete with the top AFC teams for a possible Super Bowl birth. The Ravens started 4-2, before losing 9 straight games, bottoming out by losing to the winless Dolphins in Week 15. They beat the Steelers on the last day of the season to salvage a 5-11 campaign. The result was the end of the Brian Billick era and the hiring of John Harbaugh.
The strength of the Ravens starts with their defense. It has been that way since Ray Lewis arrived in 1996. Since 1999 the Ravens have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense 6 times and in the top 10 in yards allowed every year other than 2002. The Ravens were impossible to run the ball against last year. They were 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 1st in yards per rushing attempt, and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
The Ravens still have a great front 7. Ngata was a great pick at defensive tackle in the 2006 draft. Terrell Suggs is still a great pass rusher and will be 26 in October. He had a down year with 5.0 sacks after consistently being in the 8-12 range. He must rebound. The million-dollar question is how much does Ray Lewis have left in the tank. The 9-time Pro Bowler and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer turns 33 years old this season. He hasn’t had 100 solo tackles since 2004, something he did 6 of the 8 seasons prior to 2004. He must stay healthy for the Ravens to have their defense at its best.
The secondary is great when healthy. Ed Reed is still the best safety in the business. McAllister and Rolle are both over 30 years old and were injured last season. That was a main reason why the Ravens finished 20th in passing yards allowed and 26th in passing touchdowns allowed. Fabian Washington and Frank Walker were brought in to address secondary depth. They should stop the pass better in 2008.
On offense, the Ravens were able to run the ball behind Pro Bowler Willis McGahee. He had 1207 yards and 7 touchdowns. That was a great season given the cast around him. Ray Rice was a nice addition to back him up in the 2nd round.
Other than McGahee, the Ravens had little to nothing on offense. They have a very anemic passing offense, evidenced by the 23rd ranking in passing yards and 28th ranking in passing touchdowns. The Ravens highest single game point total was 30 points in 2008 and they scored under 20 points 8 times. Matt Stover is a great kicker, but was all too many times the Ravens best offensive weapon.
Weaknesses: Here is how bad the Ravens quarterback situation has been in the Ray Lewis era. Last year, Kyle Boller became the all-time Raven passing yardage leader with 7,846 yards, surpassing Vinny Testeverde, who threw for 7,148 yards in 29 games in 1996 and 1997. It took Boller 53 games and 42 starts to accumulate his passing yards. It took the Ravens 10 seasons to find a quarterback with enough staying power to surpass 7,148 yards.
The Ravens have never been able to throw the ball. In 2008 they have 3 choices. Kyle Boller, who is the franchise’s all time passing yards leader and a certifiable bust. Joe Flacco is another choice. He is a rookie who played his college ball at the University of Delaware. The third option is Troy Smith, who is in his second year. He is a great leader and intangible guy who must prove to the Ravens he possesses NFL skills. It is not exactly an all-star group.
Todd Heap is a good tight end that was injured last year. He should rebound to give the Ravens a solid target in the middle of the field. Derrick Mason was solid as usual with 103 catches for 1087 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. The only question with him is age, as he is 34 years old. Mark Clayton looked to be poised for a breakout year in 2007. He regressed to 48 catches, 531 yards, and 0 touchdowns.
The offensive line is going to be in a state of flux if Jonathan Ogden follows through on his retirement talk. He has reportedly told the Ravens not to expect him back. He is an 11-time Pro Bowler, 9-time All-Pro, and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer. It is hard to replace guys like him. Losing him is going to hurt this offense in terms of run production and protecting a young quarterback.
The Ravens didn’t have a lot of salary cap room to improve. They are going to have to improve from within to improve on their poor offensive showing from 2007.
Prediction: This is not the worst team in the league in terms of talent. It is a very solid defense with a below average offense. That should still win some games. However, it is has a horrible schedule. They play the following scoring defenses in 08: Colts (1), Steelers twice (2), Titans (8th), Eagles (9th), Jaguars (10th) Redskins (11th), Cowboys (13th). That doesn’t include the defending champion NY Giants, Cleveland who is vastly improved, and Cincinnati, who went 2-0 against the Ravens in 2007.
I think that while there are some nice young players on defense, but a few of the core players are starting to get up there in age. Ray Lewis has to play lights out if this defense is going play at a high enough level for the team to compete. They are going to be playing either a bad quarterback or an inexperienced quarterback, neither of which is a good thing. They have some nice pieces on offense, but nothing that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. McGahee can’t run effectively against 8 people in the box, and Heap needs receivers to stretch the field and give him room in the middle. Mason is a solid threat, but doesn’t stretch the field. Ogden retiring would be a terrible blow to the offensive line.
The schedule is impossible and I look for 4 wins out of the Ravens. They will play teams tough and keep the score down, but I think the offense is just too weak. The good news is they had a good draft in 08 and if Flacco or Smith is the real deal at QB they could put easily together a playoff contender in 2009 with another good draft, some free agent signings, and an easier schedule.
Baltimore Ravens’ Record: 4-12 – AFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
As I had promised earlier, I was going to release the 5
teams that received a kind deal from the NFL schedule maker and 5 teams that
were not treated as well. I wanted to wait until after the draft before I made my final call on that. There
are a couple things to keep in mind.
1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division. I know Cleveland has a tough schedule
as well. 14 of their 16 opponents
are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule.
What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules? I tried to pick teams from different divisions when breaking down the
schedule. 2) I tried to give
deference to stretches of tough or easy games over overall schedule. While one team may have a similar
strength of schedule, if those tough games are bunched into 6 weeks, I think
that makes for a tougher schedule.
Without further delay, here is my list:
5 Teams that Were Brutalized by the NFL Schedule Maker
1)
Pittsburgh Steelers – This is by far the most brutal schedule
in the NFL. The Steelers
face 8 different playoff teams from 2007.
They also face Cleveland twice, which won 10 games and finished a
tiebreaker out of the playoffs.
Here is their schedule from Week 5 to Week 14: 5) at Jacksonville, 6)
Bye, 7) at Cincinnati, 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11)
San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) at New England, 14) Dallas.
Thank god for the Bengals or there
would be no easy games. In
particular that stretch playing Indy, San Diego, at New England, and Dallas is
brutal. The Steelers opponents winning
percentage in 2008 was .598. That
is toughest in the NFL. Their only
opponents that had losing records in 2007 are Cincinnati (2) and Baltimore
(2). When you consider that most
people feel the Ravens had a very quality draft, they should be improved in
2008. The Steelers did well in the
draft and have a solid nucleus returning in 2008. However, they have no favors when it comes to the
schedule.
2)
Indianapolis – It is bad enough having to play in the AFC
South where both Jacksonville and Tennessee made the playoffs. They have the following stretch of
games: 7) at Green Bay, 8) at Tennessee, 9) New England, 10) at Pittsburgh, 11)
Houston, 12) at San Diego, 13) at Cleveland.
That is 5 playoff teams in 7
weeks. Cleveland was a 10 game
winner that was very busy in free agency.
There are 3 road games in 4 weeks with the only home game being against
New England. The winning
percentage of the Colts opponents in 2007 was .594, which is not that much
behind the Steelers. When you
consider the pass rushers Jacksonville added and the Colts not having a first
round pick, I believe the gap has closed between Indy and the rest of that
division. While the Colts are
still very talented, they will have more than their share of obstacles to
repeat in the AFC South.
3)
Green Bay Packers – When you look at the NFL schedule, you can
begin to see why Brett Favre didn’t think returning to the playoffs based on
the development of the team would be enough to ensure a playoff birth. Here is their schedule from Week 3
through 11. 3) Dallas, 4) at Tampa
Bay, 5) Atlanta, 6) at
Seattle, 7) Indianapolis, 8) Bye, 9) at Tennessee, 10) at Minnesota, 11)
Chicago, 12) at New Orleans.
That is a lot of tough games. 5 of those 9 teams are playoff
teams. Minnesota has added Jared
Allen and the Packers couldn’t beat the Bears last year when the Pack won 13
games. Two of the Pack’s 3 losses were to Chicago. New Orleans could return to their 2006 form this
season. The only victory that
would seem certain is the Atlanta game at home. The Packer’s opponents winning percentage in 2007 was
.531. The Packers aren’t going to
have much time to adjust to life without #4. They had best get out of the gate fast, because the schedule
will be unforgiving if they need to make up ground starting in Week 6.
4)
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are naturally going to have a
tough schedule seeing that they were one of 3 teams that made the playoffs in
their own division. Furthermore,
the Eagles were 8-8 and signed the biggest free agent in the offseason in
Samuel. Still, the Cowboys have a
brutal stretch in the middle of the season. 8) Tampa Bay, 9) at NY Giants, 11) at Washington, 12) San
Francisco, 13) Seattle, 14) at Pittsburgh, 15) NY Giants.
That would be 6 playoff opponents
in 7 weeks for the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys overall schedule had a winning percentage of .523 in 2007. The Cowboys had a 13-3 record in 2007
and potentially added 4 key pieces on draft weekend to go along with Zach
Thomas. They did what they needed
to do to keep pace. However, they
will not be able to have the lapses they had at the end of the season in 2007,
otherwise their schedule is strong enough to make them pay in 2008.
5)
Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks don’t have that 8 game stretch
where they play a bunch of playoff opponents. Playing in the NFC West helps in that regard. Still, the Seahawks opponents had a
.477 winning percentage in 2007.
Of note there are 2 three game stretches that could give the Hawks some
issues. 5) at NY Giants, 6) Green
Bay, 7) at
Tampa Bay & 12) Washington, 13) at
Dallas, 14) New England.
The Seahawks have some nice games
against Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo, St Louis (2), and San Francisco
(2). Arizona is probably their
most formidable opponent in the division.
It is imperative that they take care of those teams and not suffer any
lapses. This shouldn’t be like
2007 when they played 2 playoff teams the entire season and none in the last 10
weeks of the season. If the
Seahawks stumble where they shouldn’t, the schedule will be much less
forgiving.
5 Teams that Were Spared by the
NFL Schedule Maker
1)
New England Patriots – It must be pretty nice to be coming off
a 16-0 regular season and not only get the 7th pick in the draft,
but get the league’s easiest schedule at .387. Part of that is due to the 1-15 Dolphins and 4-12 NY Jets
residing in their division. Still,
here are there first 4 opponents:
1) Kansas City. 2) at NY Jets, 3) Miami, 4) Bye, 5) at San
Francisco.
The only time they play 2007
playoff opponents in back to back weeks are Pittsburgh and Seattle in Weeks 13
and 14. There are only 4 playoff opponents
out of 16 on their schedule. That
is the minimum a team that finished in 1st place can play the
following season. I’m sure the NY
Jets will be better and that there will be some surprises on their
schedule. However, considering the
season the Patriots had and the changes they are making on defense, they got a
very favorable schedule. It is
easy not only in terms of overall quality, but the lack of quality they play in
the first 5 weeks of the season while those new parts become acclimated to the
Patriot’s way.
2)
San Diego Chargers – Very similar situation to the
Patriots. They play in a bad
division and therefore only drew 4 playoff opponents out of a possible 16
opponents on their schedule. Their
first 5 opponents are 1) Carolina, 2) at Denver, 3) NY Jets, 4) at Oakland, 5)
at Miami.
The Chargers have a few tougher
obstacles that the Patriots. They
did draw Pittsburgh and Indy in back to back weeks for Week 11 and 12. New Orleans could rebound from their
dismal 2007 campaign. Overall, the
Chargers look like they are in pretty good shape with this schedule too. Playing in the AFC West is a blessing
in of itself. Combined with 3
games against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami gives the Chargers an easier road
than most.
3)
New Orleans Saints – I believe the schedule sets up nicely for
the Saints to have a bounce back season in 2008. Here is their schedule from Week 3 to 11. 3) at Denver, 4) San Francisco, 5)
Minnesota, 6) Oakland, 7) at Carolina, 8) San Diego, 9) Bye, 10) at Atlanta,
11) at Kansas City.
Consider that there is only one
playoff team from 2007 in that 7 game mix. The Saints schedule had a winning percentage of .449 in
2007. They play against the weak AFC
West. The NFC North is a relative
unknown in 2008. Who knows if
Minnesota will be able to win given their QB situation, if the Bears will
return to their 06 level, or if the Packers can survive without Favre?
Furthermore, the Saints divisional
leader (Tampa) won only 9 games in 2007 and has several issues of their
own. Tampa fans will remind you
that is because Tampa tanked the last couple games of the season. Still, most objective people will agree
the Bucs were the weakest divisional champion in 2007. If New Orleans has fixed their
defensive problems this offseason and can run the ball in 2008, the schedule
sets up nicely for them.
4)
Arizona Cardinals - I know, I know. People have been telling you that Arizona is the team to
watch in the NFC West since Denny Green took over. Every year they find a way to win 8 games or less. But, when you look at this schedule,
they should get off to a great start.
Here is what they are looking at:
1) at San Francisco, 2) Miami, 3) at Washington, 4) at NY Jets, 5)
Buffalo, 6) Dallas, 7) Bye, 8) at Carolina, 9) at St. Louis, 10) San Francisco.
That is exactly 2 playoff teams in
their first 9 games. The overall
schedule has a winning percentage of .465, so it is fairly friendly when
compared to other teams. They have
to make sure they aren’t depending on the end of the season to win games. They finish 15) Minnesota, 16) at New
England, 17) Seattle. However, if
the Cardinals can continue to progress in year 2 of the Ken Whisenhunt program
they will be in good shape to be competing either for the division or a wild
card spot come the end of the season.
5)
Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota has a schedule where their
opponents won .551 of their games in 2007. Many people will not have them on the easy column. However, I go further than just looking
at percentages. They get Green Bay
on the road in Week 1. That is
huge, seeing the Packers will be playing their first game without Brett
Favre. They are retiring Favre’s
number. Rodgers is going to be as
nervous as he ever will be. What
better time to play Green Bay on the road and potentially steal an early season
divisional win on the road?
Second, they will not be playing
any cold games. Here is their
schedule for November and December: 9) Houston, 10) Green Bay, 11) at Tampa
Bay, 12) at Jacksonville, 13) Chicago, 14) at Detroit, 15) at Arizona, 16)
Atlanta, 17) NY Giants. That is
huge for a team that traditionally does not play well in the elements.
Third, they don’t really have any
stretches where they play multiple impossible games. I really like them to do well from Week 13-16. That is when teams are making their
playoff push. Week 1 and 2 at
Green Bay and at home against Indy will be tough. They play Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and at Jacksonville in
Week 10-12. Green Bay and Tampa
Bay are two teams that many people will not pick to repeat in the playoffs this
season. If that is your worst
stretch of games, then things aren’t too bad.
While the numbers suggest that
Minnesota has a tough schedule, the retirement of Brett Favre is not factored
into that. Take out Green Bay’s
record and the Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of .513, which is
much more manageable. While the
Vikings didn’t get a gift from the NFL, it isn’t nearly as bad as you might
think. The Vikings set up well to
take an up for grab NFC North if they can survive the tough slate of AFC South
games.
There you have it. What did you think of your team’s
schedule for 2008? How do you
think I broke down the schedule?
Do you think I am disrespecting a certain team’s schedule or not giving
another team’s enough credit? Let
me know your thoughts.
The unveiling of the NFL schedule is the first point in the NFL off season where you can begin to look forward to next year. After the NFL Draft you can start to fully evaluate the schedule and the 2008 season in general.
While I have looked at the schedules and have some opinions as to which teams have the most difficult road, I am going to save those judgments for after the NFL draft. I still want to see how the NFL draft plays out before I render my final verdict.
What it isn’t too early to do is start looking at some of the marquee match ups in 2008. Based on the free agent signings and performances over the last couple seasons here are the 10 games that I circled on the NFL calendar as being more noteworthy than the rest. I did not rate divisional games, as we always look forward to those. These are the best of the Non-Divisional Match Ups.
Honorable Mention: New York Giants (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) - October 26, 2008: I didn't want leave the NFL Champion NY Giants off the list. However, they don' have that one game that I am looking forward to like the other 10 on my list that is out of division. The Browns and Seahawks are solid opponents. How they do against Minnesota this time around will be a good storyline. The only game I considered putting on the list was the Steelers Game. Seeing the Steelers occupy 4 other games on the list; I decided to make this game my Honorable Mention.
10) Chicago Bears (7-9) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)– September 07, 2008: A rematch of Super Bowl XLI. While the Bears failed to make the playoffs a year after making the Super Bowl, the Colts had another typical 12 plus win season in the Tony Dungy era. This game will mark the opening of Indianapolis’s new stadium. Brian Urlacher vs. Peyton Manning. If the Bears can return to their 2006 form in 2008 this has the making of an excellent opening game.
9) Washington Redskins (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-6)– November 23rd, 2008: This is a solid rematch of the NFL Wildcard Round. The Redskins have lost 2 consecutive playoff games in Seattle, 2005 and 2007. The 2007 playoff game was very intriguing. After Seattle raced out to a 13-0 lead, the Redskins scored 14 unanswered points to take the lead. Seattle went on to score the final 22 points of the game, including 2 defensive touchdowns to pull away 35-14. This is also the return of Seattle Offensive Coordinator Jim Zorn as Washington Head Coach. Seattle is always a difficult place to win, so if the Redskins are going to win they will have their work cut out for them.
8) San Diego Chargers (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) – November 16th, 2008: The Chargers and Steelers have had some memorable regular season games over the last couple seasons. The most memorable was the Monday Night Football game when the Steelers defeated the Chargers, 24-22, on a Jeff Reed 40-yard field goal in the final moments of the game. The teams mett again in 2006. The Chargers beat the Steelers 23-13 to drop the Steelers to 1-3 in The Chin’s final season. After taking the 2007 campaign off these two AFC powers go back at it in 2008 in what has the makings of a terrific game.
7) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at New England Patriots (16-0)– November 30th, 2008: A match up that has resulted in a couple AFC Championship Games this decade resumes in New England for the second straight season. The Steelers were embarrassed 34-13 in New England in 2007 in a game that many people thought could be the Patriots first loss of the 2007 season. The Steelers will get an opportunity to show if their defense can stop Brady, Moss, and company.
6) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) at Green Bay Packers (13-3)- September 21, 2008: A rematch of the NFC’s two best regular season teams in 2007. The two met in a highly publicized NFL Network Showdown as 10-1 heavyweights. Brett Favre did not come out of the gate strong and was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter. Rodgers stepped into the game down 27-10. He went 18 of 26 for 201 yards and one touchdown and brought the Packers back to down 27-24, before ultimately losing 37-27. This year Rodgers will be the starter and the Cowboys will be coming to Green Bay. This will be the first playoff team for the Packers in 2008 after they open up against division rivals Minnesota and at Detroit. It will be interesting to see how the Packers fare against a competitive team without long time quarterback Brett Favre.
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) - October 5th, 2008: A rematch of the best Wild Card Round game of the 2007 playoffs. The Jaguars became the first team in the history of the NFL to win two times in the same season in Pittsburgh. Both games were exciting to the end. The first game saw the Jaguars take a 22-7 lead into the 4th quarter. Roethlisberger threw two 4th quarter touchdowns and a two point conversion tied the game. Fred Taylor scored the go ahead touchdown on a 12-yard run to put the Jags ahead for good. In the playoff game, the Steelers again feel behind 28-10 after 3 quarters. They came alive in the 4th scoring 19 unanswered points to take a 29-28 lead. David Garrard had a 40 yard plus run on 4th down late in the game to set up the winning field goal. If this year’s rematch comes even close to those two games the NFL world is in for a treat.
4) New England Patriots (16-0) at San Diego Chargers (11-5) – October 12th, 2008: You could flip 3 and 4 around if you want. I think the Colts and Chargers games were more entertaining last season, and therefore put it at number 3. The Patriots have had the Chargers number. The Chargers lost a heartbreaking 2006 Divisional Round game 24-21 in Sand Diego. The Chargers had an 8 point 4th quarter lead, but could not hold on. Kaeding missed a 50 plus yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT. In 2007 the Patriots blew the Chargers off the field before they knew what happened. The Patriots led 24-0 at halftime and won 38-14. In the 2007 AFC Championship the Chargers kept the game competitive, but couldn’t break into the endzone. The Chargers 4 field goals came up short, 21-12. This is the game the Chargers hope they can finally break through.
3) Indianapolis Colts (13-3) at San Diego Chargers (11-5)– November 23, 2008: Another rematch of playoff teams that met in both the regular season and playoffs. The first regular season game saw the Chargers force 6 Peyton Manning interceptions and the Chargers race out to a 23-0 lead in San Diego. The Colts scored 21 straight points and still had a chance to win the game, but Adam Vinatieri missed a chip shot that sealed the Colt’s fate. In the Divisional Round rematch in Indy, the Colts lost 28-24, despite the fact that Rivers, LT, and Gates missed significant time in the second half with injuries. These two have played very entertaining games the last few seasons and nothing should be different in 2008.
2) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)- Dec. 7th, 2008: This is always a special game. The Steelers and Cowboys have met 3 times in the Super Bowl, with the Steelers winning in Super Bowls X & XIII. The Cowboys won Super Bowl XXX. Because they play in different conferences, the rivals meet only once every 4 years. That is why I have it rated higher than their regular season record and postseason record in 2007 would indicate. Big Ben and Romo are two young quarterbacks that are coming off 30 touchdown pass seasons. TO returning to Pennsylvania is an interesting storyline, even if it isn’t Philadelphia. The two teams should be fighting for playoff position in this December contest. It should be a very intriguing game between two teams that we don’t see play each other that much.
1) New England Patriots (16-0) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)– November 2nd, 2008: As long as Tom Brady is in a Patriot uniform and Peyton Manning is pitching products in his Colts gear this will continue to be the Main Event. Both quarterbacks are future first ballot Hall of Famers. Both play on the teams that have experienced the most success in the 2000 decade. There is mutual respect and dislike for one another on both sides. Last year’s game saw 9-0 Patriots square off against the 8-0 Colts. This year they meet in a Week 9 showdown as well. Every game these two play seems to come down to the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.
Those are the 10 games that stood out on the schedule to me when the schedule was released. As we all know it probably won't turn out that way. Few could have predicted the 10-1 Cowboys would meet the 10-1 Packers last year. What looks good in April can be pretty boring come October and November. Furthermore, I’m sure you could find a series of other games depending on your allegiance. Finally, my list doesn’t even include the intriguing divisional match ups. What that adds up to is another exciting year of NFL football.
My plan is to have a draft recap up after the April 26th and 27th NFL Draft. Shortly thereafter I will look at the big winners and losers of the NFL schedule. While I defiantly have some opinions on that, I want to hold off on that until I see if there are any other big trades or moves during the draft. My goal is to start doing my division by division previews beginning in May. This blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com is the place to keep up to date on all the NFL happenings.
What is the game you are most looking forward to in 2008? Do you think I identified the correct games or did I overlook something? I look forward to reading your comments.
I apologize for being on such a long hiatus. While the NFL season is year long event I needed a break from my blog. As a Packer fan it has definitely been a long month. I can not wait for the draft to arrive so that we can tally up some winners and losers there and start making some predictions for 2008. While the draft does not happen for another 3 weeks I have completed a mock draft. I encourage you to check it out at: http://fantasyfootballmaniaxs.alexia.us/inde x.php?option=com_conten####mp;task=view&id=63 3&Itemid=50
After the opening weekend of free agency I gave an opinion as to who my top five winners and losers were of the opening weekend. I think that we have had enough activity in free agency to tally up some winners and losers from the entire Free Agency Period of the NFL off season. Assuming that nothing major happens between now and the NFL draft here are my 5 winners and 5 losers:
5 Winners
1) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. I think the Browns made the best of a bad situation. They didn’t have a first round pick this year thanks to their Brady Quinn trade of a year ago. They weren’t going to dominate the draft in 2008. What they did do is improve their team by giving free agent dollars and draft picks for guys that have not turned 30 years old. Corey Williams will be 28-years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29. Stallworth will be 28 in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. Their signings should be relevant to the Browns organization for years to come.
The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency and try to pass the Steelers in the AFC North. While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it like some other teams in the NFL that I will mention later. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it by acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. The Browns were not that far away from the Steelers last season. If these moves pan out watch out for the Browns in the always intriguing AFC North.
2) New Orleans Saints – The Saints did a lot of nice things to open free agency. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured in 2007 he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets began playing when Herm Edwards left. If he can re-emerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Bringing in Dan Morgan is a risk, but it was only for a one year deal. If he can stay healthy he will contribute. Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not the gigantic signing that was Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27-years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Deverey Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense.
I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season. Considering they have the 10th pick in the draft they have a lot of flexibility to add another immediate impact player and improve this team that is only a year removed from the NFC Title Game.
3) Tennessee Titans – I like how this team has built on their run to the wildcard last season. They signed guard Jake Scott away from the Colts which helps them and hurts a division rival. The money was reasonable at 4 years for $5.0 million per year. They signed Alge Crumpler after he was released by the Falcons. He should help considerably if he can stay healthy by giving Young a go to target in the red zone and third down. They were able to bring Jevon Kearse back to the Titans. He is a former Titan that should help if his health holds up. They also added WR Justin McCareins from the Jets.
These aren’t players that will send shivers down opposing fan’s spines, but they are solid players that will help the Titans win football games in 2008. This is a team that sat out of the opening week of free agency, but was able to add solid veterans at salary friendly contracts. The biggest key for them going forward is to have a solid draft and resolve the contract dispute with Albert Haynesworth. He is essential to their defense. While there were other teams that broke the bank the Titans added good talent, but stayed smart. I think that conservative approach will pay off.
4) - Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why in the Andy Reid era; year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL. They were able to eliminate some older players from their roster in Spikes and Kearse and signed the most coveted free agent on the market in Samuel. While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. Then instead of canceling out a good signing by overpaying someone they stayed put and are going to use the draft to continue to improve their roster. The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a #### and built on that by maintaining a conservative approach.
5) Atlanta Falcons – Very similar to what the Eagles did. They made their big splash by signing Michael the Burner Turner to a large deal. He should give them a nice weapon rushing the ball and is a much better compliment to the skill set of Norwood than Dunn was. Then they do a bunch of smaller moves. They resign Harrington and Redman to contracts. This gives them the flexibility to either draft Ryan or go in a different direction later in the draft. Both are decent stop gap guys when developing a franchise quarterback. They signed Jason Elam which upgrades the kicking game. They get a second round pick for Hall and rid themselves of a locker room problem. They rid themselves of a big salary by releasing Crumpler. All of these moves will allow them to continue to rebuild a franchise that was devastated by the conviction of Michael Vick. While I don’t think the Falcons will compete for the playoffs next season, I do think they are on the road to recovery. Instead of trying to throw money at their problems and make it worse they seem to have a solid plan going forward.
5 Losers
1) Green Bay Packers – I actually had the Packers on the winner side after the opening weekend for getting a 2nd round pick from Cleveland for a player in Corey Williams that they had absolutely no intention of keeping. What a difference a couple of days made. On March 4, 2008 the Packer fortunes changed forever when future Hall of Famer and all time great NFL quarterback Brett Favre announced his retirement from the NFL. Franchise Quarterbacks are extremely tough to replace. Hall of Fame players that have been the face of the franchise for over 15 years are next to impossible. While life will go on for the Packers this loss will hurt significantly, especially in the 2008 season.
The Packers have a promising backup in Aaron Rodgers. For all the people that think he is the answer because o####ood showing in the Dallas game I encourage you to research the career of Buffalo Bills quarterback Rob Johnson, who was given franchise dollars based on one game as the Jaguars backup. The Dallas game is zero indication of the starting quarterback Rodgers will become. The encouraging thing is that Rodgers does appear to have made strides since his first training camp in Green Bay. The bad news is that he has had injury problems as the backup. He broke his ankle in 2006 missing the second half of season. Last year he pulled his hamstring in practice and was inactive for the end of the regular season. If the Packers are going to be contender in 2008 they can’t replace the Iron Man with the China Doll. Rodgers must stay healthy as the options behind him are bleak.
The Packers have no way of replacing a player of Brett Favre’s talents in the draft or free agency for next season and even though they have a young and promising team, quarterback is the most important position on the team. Losing a Hall of Fame Quarterback is huge and makes them the big loser of the 2008 off season.
2) New York Jets – The Jets have been experts at getting old and average talent for millions this off season. The Jets signed OG Alan Faneca to a five year $40 million dollar deal. OT Damien Woody to a 5 year $25.5 million dollar deal. Bubba Franks was signed to a 1 year $1.65 million dollar contract for being an injury case in Green Bay. Tony Richardson who is an aging injured player was signed away from the Vikings. On defense they signed ex-Cardinals OLB Calvin Pace to a six year, $42 million contract. They traded a third and fifth round pick for ex-Panthers DT Kris Jenkins and proceeded to sign him to a 5 year $35.0 million dollar contract. Then to top everything off they guaranteed the last $11.0 million of Cole’s salary.
Ladies and Gentleman, I introduce to you the new and recently relocated Washington Redskins. The only player that I would have been happy with my favorite team signing was Faneca. Pace is a good player, but not worth the investment the Jets paid him. Everyone else I see as either consistently injured, consistently old, or consistently underachieving. In some cases it is all three. The fact that they mortgaged their salary cap future to overpay average to below average talent speaks volumes that this team is not headed toward contention anytime soon.
3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. I like what they did a little better than the Jets, because I think Hall has the ability to be a shut down corner and Gibril Wilson has the potential to be a Pro Bowl safety. At least they signed some younger players than the Jets. Still this free agent grab produced some embarrassing signings. Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million. He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed. I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season. He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle. They allowed a healthy Joey Porter to walk and did not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him. Then they signed Javon Walker who has had knee issues the last few seasons to a 6 year $55.0 million dollar deal. That one boggles my mind. He is just too injured to warrant that big of a payout.
The Commitment to Excellence became to the Commitment to Overspending in 2008. When you combine that with the uncertainty surrounding Lane Kiffin you have the potential for a very entertaining soap opera for those outside the Raiders Nation.
4) New England Patriots – Other than 2007 the Patriots are consistently on this side of the report, yet continue to compete for division titles. However, the Patriots have suffered a lot of losses this off season. Samuel was signed by the Eagles, Eugene Wilson was signed by the Buccaneers, and #### was signed by the Saints. Harrison was probably a player they needed to replace in their secondary and he is coming back. They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin. They have suffered a lot of losses on defense. They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary destroyed. While they did address those losses by signing Fernando Bryant, Tank Williams, and Lewis Sanders that does not replace what they lost. While the 7th pick can address a major area of need it can’t rebuild an entire secondary and linebacker core.
Then you have to look at the offense. Keeping Randy Moss was huge. Had they not the Patriots would have been my number one loser of the off season, even with the Favre retirement. Stallworth was signed by the Browns. While his numbers suggest it is a manageable loss it hurts in the fact that a safety had to respect his speed. The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for. I think their approach is sounder than the Jets and Raiders. I still think they paid a hefty price this off season.
5) Minnesota Vikings – I didn’t like the Vikings off season beginning with the overpayment of Berrian. The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money. This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play. Even if he had a good quarterback, I don’t see him as an elite player. He drops the ball too much for the production he gives. Furthermore, the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield strikes. Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams to a $33 million deal, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money. He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career for a Cincinnati team that can’t stop anyone either. I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.
The Vikings did better than NY Jets and Oakland by not completely surrendering their future. They only overpaid for two players not 5 or 6. They didn’t lose the Hall of Famer the Packers did or the multiple talented players the Patriots lost. Entering the off season the Vikings needed to 1) Upgrade their passing offense, and 2) Upgrade their passing defense.
Here is my issue. They received a huge break by having their division rival’s Hall of Fame QB retire. The Bears are rebuilding their offense and their defense was down last season. The Lions have been rebuilding since Barry Sanders retired. The Vikings have arguably the best weapon in the division with Peterson and the division is theirs for the taking. Yet entering the draft you have the exact same question marks you had about the team last season.
The fact is that by the start of next season the Vikings offensive line will be in its prime years. Birk will be 32, Hutchinson will be 31 in November, and McKinnie will be 29 in September. The Vikings have one of the most promising weapons in the NFL in Adrian Peterson. The time is now to try to shoot to the top of the NFC North. I think they needed to have the mentality that the Cleveland Browns had this off season, and I just didn’t see it. I haven’t seen them do the things they need to do to take control of division that is theirs to control. Even though Peterson will be better in year 2; a bad pass defense and lack of a passing game will produce another 8-8 season.
That’s my take on free agency in the NFL. Remember, the draft is where the Super Bowl is won and lost. Being a loser or winner in the free agency period is not necessarily a pivotal moment in a franchise’s off season. There are still a lot more developments to come. I expect to do a draft recap after the April 26th NFL draft and will start doing my division previews in the beginning to middle of May. Stay tuned.
With the NFL being on the eve of the free agency signing period, fans are gearing up for a quick fix. I thought I would explore the history of the free agency period and see what makes the top teams the top teams.
Before I get to that I want to remind people that Dr X and I have been writing prescriptions for all 32 teams. This is our view on what areas each team needs to improve in if they want to have a more successful 2008. The final prescription for the top 8 teams in the NFL last season was posted today. If you want to check those out they can be viewed at:
One of the things that NFL fans are consistently guilty of is hoping that their team makes a big splash in free agency or in the first round of the NFL draft. Now that the 2007 season has ended fans begin the countdown for when free agency officially begins. There are some big names to be had, most notably: Assante Samuel, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Lance Briggs, and Corey Williams.
Furthermore with Zach Thomas, Alge Crumpler, and other cap casualties being released there is a chance for teams to make quite a splash in free agency. Dallas has already done that by signing Zach Thomas. But is that a good idea? Is it better to have a Daniel Snyder or Jerry Jones mentality and buy the best players that money can buy or is it better to have a more conservative approach like Ted Thompson and stay clear of the dangerous waters of free agency?
I am a firm believer that the best way to improve your team is to invest a lot of money in your scouting department and draft as many good players as you can. The NFL draft is the most important part of building an NFL team. Draft picks are to be treated like gold, even the 7th round picks.
While many people tune out after the first round there is a lot of talent to be had later in the draft. After the draft is also essential when the unsigned free agent rookie class is signed. I know people get sick of hearing that every year and would rather concentrate on the big names that create dreams of instant Super Bowls. But it really is true.
To demonstrate that I decided to make a starting team that consisted of 2 backs and 2 receivers that plays a 3-4 defense. This list is some notable players selected after the 45th pick, or basically about halfway through the second round that played on an NFL roster in 2007. This is not the best list of players selected after the 45th pick. I tried to give deference to players that were selected in the lower rounds or were undrafted to demonstrate the value that is available in that part of the draft.
S – Rodney Harrison (Western Illinois, 1994 5th Round, 145th Pick)
S - Antoine Bethea (Howard University, 2006 6th Round, 207th Pick)
P – Shayne Lechler (Texas A & M, 2000 5th Round, 142nd Pick)
I think it is pretty easy to see that while there are a lot of sexy names in the top 10 picks that teams who do their homework are nicely rewarded for having done so. While you could put together a pretty impressive roster of top 10 picks over the last 15 years, this team would definitely hold its own against that team.
It has been 15 years since the league implemented their current free agency system to start the 1993 season. I decided to look at who have been the most successful teams in the NFL since 1993 in terms of W-L record. These are the 7 franchises that stood out:
Green Bay Packers: 152 wins – 88 Losses; 1 Super Bowl Trophy
New England Patriots: 150 wins – 90 Losses; 3 Super Bowl Trophies
These 7 teams account for 10 of the 15 Lombardi Trophies won in the Free Agency Era. With the exception of the Eagles and Colts the others have appeared in multiple Super Bowls. They have combined to make 29 Conference Championship appearances. They have had the most regular season success combining to win 59.5 % of their games or an average of 9.5 per season. So what do these teams do differently than the other franchises? Why have they been so successful year after year where other teams search for the formula year after year to no avail?
Coaching / Front Office Consistency: These teams for the most part have not been changing head coaches every couple seasons. New England has had two Hall of Fame Coaches for 11 of those 15 years in Red Riding Hood and The Tuna. The Colts have had Dungy and Mora for 10 of those 15 seasons. Pittsburgh had The Chin for 14 of the 15 seasons. Shanahan has been with Denver since 1998. Reid has been in Philly since 1999. Holmgren and Sherman combined for 12 of the 15 seasons in Green Bay. The only team that had a lot of turnover in the Head Coaching Department was the Dallas Cowboys who have had Johnson, Switzer, Gailey, Campo, Parcells, and Phillips with nobody coaching more than 4 years. However, Jerry Jones has been their all 15 years of the free agency period, which is important because he is for all intensive purposes the GM for the Cowboys. Ron Wolf, Bob Kraft, Dan Rooney, and Pat Bowlin Bill Polian, and Jeffrey Lurie have all been the faces of the ownership or front office for the majority of that time. Having consistency in your head coaching, front office, and ownership is imperative for continued success.
Drafted or Developed Hall of Fame QB: Quarterback is the most important position on the team. Therefore, I don’t think it is any coincidence that some of the best signal callers in the NFL have played on these teams during this span. Favre has played all 15 years in the free agency era for the Packers. He hasn’t missed a single game. Manning has been with the Colts every game since 1998. Bledsoe and Brady have been the signal callers in New England throughout this streak. Denver had Elway for their most successful years in the run. Philly has had McNabb since 1999. Aikman had the most wins in the 90s all of which were for the Cowboys. The only team that hasn’t had a consistent signal caller during the streak is the Steelers. However, they have had a top 10 scoring defense 11 of the 15 years of the Free Agency Period. The one thing all these teams have in common is they drafted their QBs or developed him. Aikman, Big Ben, Bledsoe, Brady, Elway, and McNabb were all drafted by the teams they would eventually star for. Favre played one year in Atlanta before being traded to the Packers and developed by Holmgren. It is imperative that if you want to be a successful franchise that you draft your signal caller and develop him. Rarely is the answer to the quarterbacking dilemma going to be found by signing a big name in free agency.
Great Late Round Draft Picks: All these teams are great at finding talent in the draft where other teams are consistently sleeping on the job. Take Indianapolis. They drafted their entire offense. The Colts drafted Manning, Harrison, Addai, Gonzalez, Wayne, and Clark in the first round. They didn’t buy Manning’s offense in free agency. They also have many key contributors not found in the first round. Sanders and Bethea were both selected to the Pro Bowl and neither was a first round pick. Ted Thompson took the Packers from 4-12 to 13-3 in just 2 seasons by rebuilding the team through the draft. He got rid of older players like Rivera, Wahle, Sharper, Longwell, and Green. He replaced them with Hawk, Jennings, Jones, and Crosby, Collins, and Bigsby. All were all selected in the draft the last couple seasons or signed as undrafted free agents. His biggest trade was for Ryan Grant to start the season for a 6th round pick. The Patriots are great at selecting low round players. They refuse to overpay for over the hill talent. Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinest, Deion Branch, Adam Vinatieri , and Ty Law were all let go in favor of younger or less expensive players. The Broncos are notorious for finding running backs late in the draft, most notably 6th round pick Terrell Davis. The Eagles found their best offensive weapon in Westbrook at the end of the 3rd round. Dallas built their dynasty on the Walker trade in 1989 and the draft picks that came with that. Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Allen, Williams, and the majority of their roster were the result of solid drafts in April.
Conservative Free Agency / Trades: All of the teams have signed some free agents. The Packers signed the biggest of them all in Reggie White. Thompson spent a great deal of money to bring in Charles Woodson. The Patriots upgraded their offense by trading a 4th round pick for Randy Moss. They also signed Thomas to a huge deal. The Eagles traded for TO and signed Kearse to big deal in an attempt to win a ring. Denver traded Clinton Portis to the Redskins to bring in Bailey and sent Tatum Bell to Detroit for Dre Bly. A number of their defensive players were acquired in trades or free agency on their 2 Super Bowl teams. However, other than Dallas you rarely see these teams top the list in terms of free agency dollars spent. Most of the teams try to sign one or possibly two impact players and rely on late free agent signings and good drafts to upgrade their rosters. Also remember that despite Dallas being on this list most of those wins were the result of the Jimmy Johnson draft class. While the Cowboys have been big spenders in free agency in recent years they have 0 playoff wins since 1996 to show for it. Their recent resurgence was in large part due to Bill Parcells and the good work the Parcells regime did in the draft.
The fact is that every year there are teams that try to throw a lot of dollars at their problems. The results haven’t been very good. We know all the teams that have tried. The Saints trading a draft for Ricky Williams. Carolina giving up 2 first round picks for Sean Gilbert. The Redskins going older with Prime Time and Bruce Smith. But here is the classic example in the Free Agency era.
2006 Washington Redskins - The Redskins are annually among the NFL’s biggest spenders. After going 10-6 in 2005 and winning their second playoff game in the Snyder era, Snyder decided to go for it all just like he had in 2000. This particular season they went after wide receivers Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd, strong safety Adam Archuleta, and tight end Christian Fauria. The result was even worse this time. Portis was hurt in training camp and the Redskins limped to a 5-11 season and last place in the NFC East.
What 2006 did is strap the Redskins for salary cap space in 2007 and 2008. Lloyd and Archuleta are no longer with the team. Christian Fauria had 2 catches with Washington before leaving for Carolina. Randle El is the only player from that free agent class just 2 years later and may be cut to save salary cap space. That spending spree netted 5 wins.
I thought I would go back the last two seasons and check out past articles on the winners and losers of the free agency period. These were two of the best. On March 21, 2006 Jason Cole who is a sports writer for MSNBC picked the following winners and losers in the 2006 free agency class:
Panthers, Browns, Dolphins, & Redskins – The teams singed prominent players like Bentley, McGinest, Washington, Randle El, Lloyd, Culpepper, Archuleta, Lloyd, Kemoeatu, and Lewis. They also combined to go 23-41 with Carolina having the most success at 8-8. Meanwhile he named the Jets, Patriots, and Chargers the big losers of free agency. The Chargers were criticized for losing Brees, the Patriots for losing Abraham and some quality offensive lineman, and the Patriots for losing McGinest, Givens, and Vinatieri. They combined to go 36-12 and all three teams made the playoffs.
The other was John Clayton’s free agency report for ESPN for the 2007 season. His 5 free agency winners (San Fran, New England, Miami, Tampa, and Denver) didn’t fare too well. Only New England won more than 10 games. Only New England and Tampa made the playoffs. Meanwhile his 5 losers (Ravens, Packers, Giants, Raiders, and Texans) had better overall results. While the Ravens and Raiders didn’t fare well the Texans finished 8-8 in the leagues toughest division. The Packers and Giants squared off in the NFC Championship Game with the Giants winning the Super Bowl thanks to their great draft class by first year GM Jerry Reese.
I’m not saying that John Clayton and Jason Cole are not solid NFL reporters. We have all made mistakes when predicting things and I think the two of them would be the first to admit that the draft is much more important than the free agency period. People want to know who did well in free agency and who didn’t and their job is to report that information.
The problem that teams get into in free agency is that many teams try to sign good players without looking at the system they came fr
