I'm going to be away from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the blogger world.  I appreciate everyone that commented on the various divisions.  What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments from various fans.

I'm going to leave an open question for people to comment on.  

This is a very simple question.  What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the greatest concern?

Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look forward to reading the comments when I get back. 

Sorry I was a little late with this posting. The Memorial Day Weekend Holiday set me a bit behind. This is my fourth of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC South was arguably the weakest division in the NFL in 2007. Tampa Bay was the only divisional winner in 2007 not to win 10 games. Tampa Bay fans will point to the fact that they sat a lot of starters the last two weeks that resulted in their 9- 7 record. Still the Buccaneers were 5-1 in the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Panthers and Saints were 3-3 against the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Falcons were 3-7 outside the division. This is a division that really struggled to win games against teams in other divisions. No team is vastly superior to the other, with the exception of Atlanta. Even they could potentially finish out of the cellar if Ryan plays well as a rookie and things bounce their way. It is difficult to argue that this is anything other than a wide-open race in 2008.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC South.

1) New Orleans Saints

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 379 (12th)

Points Allowed: 388 (25th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 115-141 (.449) (27th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Saints have a terrific passing offense. The Saints ranked 3rd in passing yards as Drew Brees had 4,423 yards passing. The problem is that he had a 1 touchdown, 11 picks, and a 52.7 QB rating in his first 4 games. The Saints dug a 0-4 hole for themselves. In his last 12 games he had 28 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, and a 103.1 QB rating. The problem is you don’t get to mulligan the first 4 games of the season. Despite going 7-3 in their next 10 games they lost their last 2 games to close the season and missed the playoffs.

The problem is they were so inconsistent during the season. They beat Jacksonville 41-24 and followed that up with a 37-29 loss to the Rams where they were routed for the first 3 quarters. This team has to work on their consistency. They can’t go in the tank for 4 games, win 4 in a row, and then lose to teams like the Rams. They have to bring it every Sunday.

There are a lot of good weapons in place. Brees is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Colston is entering his 3rd season and looks primed to have a season similar to what Braylon Edwards did in 2007. Reggie Bush still has his faults, but when used properly is an explosive weapon. The Saints used him in too many reverses last season and gadget plays. They need to get back to the way they used him in 2006, which was as a spark plug, not the featured player in the offense. The injury to McAllister hurt them with that, but they were struggling to get Bush going while both were in the lineup. Stecker had a solid end to the season and gives them more weapons. Henderson, Meacham, and Johnson are all quality targets. The Saints have a stockpile of offensive weapons.

The Saints can put up points in bunches. If they can cut down on their turnovers and play with more consistency, they will score even more points and should win more games than in 2007.

Weaknesses: The Saints were the only team to attempt more than 600 passes in 2007 with 652. They ran the ball only 392 times, which ranked 7th worst in the league. That means they passed the ball 62.5 percent of the time and ran the ball only 37.5 percent of the time. The result was a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the NFL and a scoring offense that ranked 12th. With the problems this team had on defense, they weren’t able to overcome that hurdle.

For as good of a play caller as Payton was in 2006 he was equally bad in 2007, especially in the first 4 games of the season. The Saints have to find ways to run the ball, cut down on turnovers, and pass the ball down the field. They threw the ball way too much to Bush and not enough to the receivers down the field. If the defense stacks the line of scrimmage, you can’t throw the ball to Bush and expect him to run through and by everyone. He has not yet shown that type of ability.

The Saints concentrated on improving their defense this off-season. They traded for Jonathan Vilma. He is much more suited as the middle linebacker in a 4-3. The Jets going to a 3-4 really hurt his production. If he can return to his 2004 and 2005 form that will help the Saints defense considerably. They drafted Ellis in the first round out of USC to improve their defensive tackle position. They added Bobby McCray. Those two should help the Saints improve on a rush defense that ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL. It should also improve the pass rush. McCray will also give them insurance should Charles Grant have to miss time with his legal problems. He has been indicted by a Georgia grand jury with involuntary manslaughter.

They also improved their secondary. Randall #### is an upgrade. They also drafted Tracy Porter in the second round from Indiana. The Saints are hoping that with a couple additional pass rushers and a few more defensive backs they can improve on their 30th ranked defense. The Saints secondary is by no means perfect, but should not give up quite as many big plays as they did in 2007.

Prediction: I am still bitter at the New Orleans Saints for their 2007 season. It isn’t that I’m a Saints fan. My preseason prediction in 2007 was for the New England Patriots to beat the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl. The fact that they didn’t even qualify for the playoffs was annoying to say the least.

The most troubling thing was that they missed the playoffs because of poor play and inconsistency. It wasn’t as if Brees was lost for the season early and altered the dynamic of their season. They couldn’t run the ball and they couldn’t stop the pass. That keeps other offenses on the field to exploit the Saints weakness and the result was blowouts to good teams and a lot of losses to bad teams that were unexplainable.

I think they have improved this defense. I’m not saying it will be confused with the 2000 Ravens, but I think that Vilma, Ellis, McCray, ####, and Porter should help. I also think Payton is a good coach that had a bad year. He will reevaluate his play calling and try to go down the field more this season.

The schedule looks good for them. It is one of the easier ones in the NFL. The AFC West is going through a transition and the NFC North has some winnable games. Washington and San Fran are winnable games as well. They aren't in a AFC South type of division, so they should be okay there.

I went back and forth on whether to pick the Saints to win the NFC South for a second straight year. After much debate, I finally decided to give them another try. That doesn’t mean I think they are a Super Bowl team, but I do think that if they play to their talents, they have the best shot to win the NFC South.

New Orleans’ Record: 10-6 – NFC South Divisional Champion; NFC #3 Seed

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

07 Record: 9-7

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 270 (3rd)

Playoff Result: Lost in the NFC Wildcard Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Buccaneers had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2007. The Bucs finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 170.5 yards per game. They finished third in points allowed with 16.9. There only real weakness on defense was stopping the run, which ranked 17th.

They didn’t do well on defense by putting a lot of pressure on the QB. Their 33 sacks ranked tied for 16th in the NFL. They didn’t pick a lot of passes. Their 16 passes ranked tied for 17th in the NFL. Their completion percentage allowed of 60.6 ranked only 15th in the NFL. So how did this pass defense rank number 1 over the NY Giants, San Diego Chargers, and New England Patriots who all ranked much higher in sacks and turnovers?

The explanation is two-fold. 1) It helped that they did not play most of the top passing offenses. They drew Tennessee and Jacksonville with Garrard injured. They drew Atlanta and Carolina twice without Delhomme. They played the NFC West 49ers and Rams. Washington had passing issues. The best passing offenses they played in 2007 were Arizona, Detroit, Indy, Houston, New Orleans twice, and Seattle. Only Indy and Seattle made the playoffs, which Tampa Bay was blown out by in both games.

The second reason is that they were good at controlling the clock and playing field position. They ranked 11th in both rushing yards and rushing attempts. They tied for first in the NFL with interceptions thrown, tossing just 8. Jeff Garcia had only 4 interceptions on the season, 3 of them coming in the Jacksonville game. That combination resulted in an offense that did not put the Bucs defense in bad position on he field. Even though the Bucs didn’t force turnovers and sacks, the opposing offense had to go the distance.

That isn’t to say that the Bucs defense doesn’t have talent. Derrick Brooks is still a great linebacker. Gaines Adams had 6 sacks in his rookie season and should look to approach double-digit sacks in 2008. Ronde Barber is still a very respected cornerback. There are a lot of quality players on that defense.

The problem for the Bucs is that Brooks is 35 and Barber is 33. Those are two of their best players. The Bucs have done a good job of adding defensive talent. They drafted Aqib Talib to add youth to the secondary and replace Brian Kelly who left for Detroit in free agency. The Bucs must continue to get younger on defense as the last remaining pieces to their 2002 Super Bowl team are reaching the twilight of their brilliant careers.

Weaknesses: The offense was not very explosive in 2007. The Bucs were 20th in points scored with 20.9. They were 18th in yards, 16th in passing yards, and 11th in rushing yards. If Tampa Bay wants to take the next step, they have to do better on offense.

Jeff Garcia did make the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement. He is 38. The Bucs do not have a shortage of quarterbacks behind him. Simms, Griese, Gradkowski, and even the retired Jake Plummer are all property of Tampa Bay and with the exception of Plummer ready to play on a minutes notice. Galloway had his third straight 1,000-yard season in Tampa Bay, but turns 37 years old in November. Earnest Graham filled in well for the injured Cadillac Williams and had 898 rushing yards to go with his 10 rushing touchdowns. Warrick Dunn should do well in Gruden’s offense as a pass catcher, but he too is 33 years old.

There just isn’t a lot after that. Williams has been injured and disappointing since a strong rookie campaign in 2005. Ike Hilliard had 722 yards and 1 touchdown in 2007 as the number 2 receiver. Michael Clayton has fewer yards (1029) in his last 3 seasons than he did in his rookie season of 2004 with 1,193. He has been beyond disappointing. They just don’t have a lot of weapons after Galloway to throw down the field to. Tight End has been a nonexistent position. Alex Smith led the way with 385 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Bucs tried to upgrade their receiver position with Dexter Jackson in the second round. He biggest contribution will probably come in the return game. The Bucs figure to have to win with strong defense, good running, short passes, and no turnovers in 2008. They just don't have the firepower to challenge the top offenses in the NFL.

Prediction: This is always a tough division to pick. The Falcons won the division in 04, the Panthers in 05, the Saints in 06, and the Buccaneers in 07. It seems like any team could win this division year in and year out and the Bucs have the defense to compete.

I like the Bucs defense, but I still don’t understand how they won the division over the Saints in 2007. While Garcia was a nice addition and defense does go along way to helping a team win games, the Saints passing game was vastly superior and should have been enough to carry them, even with their 0-4 start. Had Payton not called that gadget play against the Bucs late in the 4th quarter that gave Tampa Bay new life, New Orleans would have tied Tampa Bay for the division lead in Week 13 and Tampa Bay would probably not have been able to rest everyone to close the season. Things could have turned out much different.

This team reminds me of Baltimore in 2006. The individual and team statistics do not scream division winner, but at the end of the year they are on top. Coaching was as much the difference in 2007 in the NFC South as anything. Jon Gruden is by far the best coach in that division.

I think Garcia can still lead this offense and they have intriguing backups should he go down. Detroit, Chicago, Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver all offer potential for wins. Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Diego could all be very tough.

I just think their key defenders are a year older, the offense doesn’t look much better, and the schedule is tougher. I know they could have finished above 9-7 had they played all their players the last couple weeks, but I just don’t see this team repeating in the division. I think they finish near .500, make things interesting in the division, and compete with Carolina for 2nd place in this always-volatile division.

Tampa Bay’s Record: 8–8 NFC South 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Carolina Panthers

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 267 (26th)

Points Allowed: 349 (15th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)

Strengths: Given the offense the Panthers played with in 2007, the defense did very well to finish 15th in points allowed. While the Panthers defense was weaker than previous seasons, they still finished in the middle of the pack in the NFL.

The Panthers added some nice talent in the draft. Dan Conner is a good linebacker from a solid linebacker program in Penn State. He should contribute. Charles Godfrey is a defensive back that could see the field immediately.

The Panthers secondary still has solid corners. Gamble and Lucas are excellent in coverage. They have to improve on their 31st ranked pass rush, which generated 23 sacks if they want to get the full production out of those guys. They can’t be effective if the quarterback has all day to throw the ball.

On offense, Steve Smith is still a top-flight wide receiver. DJ Hackett was a good addition. Muhsin Muhammad is well past his prime, but is familiar with Carolina and can help as a possession wide receiver. Dwayne Jarrett needs to step up in his second year. He had just 6 catches for 73 yards in his rookie campaign. Jeff King has the potential to put up good numbers at the tight end position. A healthy Jake Delhomme would go along way to helping all of these players put up better numbers in 2008.

Weaknesses: The Panthers had a very strange year in 2007. They started off 4-2. Steve Smith is their only really scary weapon. He had 35 catches for 496 yards and 6 touchdowns in those 6 games. That would have translated to 93 catches for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns for the season.

Then Jake Delhomme was injured in his 3rd game of the season and was lost for the year. Smith had some good games with Tesaverde, but really struggled to get even a few catches with Carr and Moore. He finished with just 52 catches for 506 yards and 1 touchdown in his last 10 games. As a result, the offense scored only 14.4 points over the final 10 games. The result was a 3-7 finish to the season.

The defense, which had been a stable of this team, did not perform very well in 2007. They finished only 15th in the league in scoring defense. That was tied for their worst season since John Fox took over in 2002. A lot of that had to do with the offense not being able to give them a lead or keep them in good field position. Still, 3-time Pro Bowl and 2-time NFL All-Pro first team defensive end Julius Peppers has to have more than 2.5 sacks. He was awful in 2007. It was his only season other than 2003 where he failed to register double digit sacks. That was a major reason why the Panthers finished so low in the sack department. He is moving to right defensive end with the retirement of Mike Rucker.

Foster and Williams teamed up to be the 14th best rushing attack in 2007. Foster is gone to San Fran and Williams has yet to show he can be an every down back. That factored into the Panthers selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th pick. If he can be healthy by the start of the season the Panthers should be more effective running the ball. The Panthers also added massive tackle Jeff Oath to upgrade the run blocking and pass protection from the tackle spot. Jordan Gross is one of the best in the business. If those two can excel in 2008, that will help the entire offense.

Prediction: The whole key to the season is whether or not Mr. Delhomme can stay healthy and whether Peppers can return to 10 plus sack form. Peppers should have a better year. He is not past his prime and has a lot of years left.

While Delhomme is not among the elite quarterbacks in the league he has proven he can lead this team to victory. He can throw the ball downfield to Steve Smith and manage the offense. He played very well in the Super Bowl back in 2003 and led the Panthers to a NFC Championship appearance in 2005. The only question with him has been consistency and interceptions, until health crept into the picture the last 2 seasons.

Without him, Matt Moore is the new starter and as we saw last year, that isn’t really a good thing. In his 3 starts the Panthers went 2-1, but that 1 win was against the resting Buccaneers to close the season. In the other two starts the Panthers scored 13 points in each contest. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield on a regular basis.

While Delhomme was very healthy from 2003 to 2005, he just hasn’t been the last 2 seasons. He missed 3 starts in 2006 and 13 last year. He had season ending surgery to his elbow on his throwing arm and is still not throwing at full strength. That is not what you want from your starter in June.

The Panthers made some upgrades at wide receiver, running back, and on defense in the draft. They should be improved. The Saints are a puzzling team and the Buccaneers have their share of issues. I would not be shocked if the Panthers competed for the division.

I considered picking them for the top spot, but I just am not confident that Delhomme will be healthy or effective the entire season and I don’t think a team can win consistently in the NFL with Moore starting games. I don’t pick teams to do well in June that are going through quarterback health questions. See the 2007 Eagles and 2006 Dolphins for reasons why I don’t do that. I look for more of the same for the Panthers in 2008 as they try to make the playoffs and save John Fox’s job. The once hot young coach’s hot seat will get even hotter if the Panthers miss the playoffs.

Carolina’s Record: 7-9 – NFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Atlanta Falcons

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 259 (29th)

Points Allowed: 414 (29th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Falcons are a team that is in complete rebuilding mode. When Michael Vick pleaded guilty to federal dog fighting charges the face of their franchise was stripped from them. Bobby Petrino was in his first year coaching and was not able to handle the transition from the college game to the pro game with that bombshell. The result was a 3-10 record before he resigned. Former Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith has been entrusted to get this franchise back on track.

The Falcons had a number of good parts last season. Roddy White broke out in his 3rd season for 83 catches, 1,202 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback cast that was a very productive year. Jerious Norwood looked impressive at times and has a lot of big play potential. He had 103 carries for 603 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, while adding 277 receiving yards. Even though Warrick Dunn has returned to Tampa Bay, Norwood will not be the number one guy. Michael Turner was the prized free agent the Falcons signed in free agency. After backing up LT for 4 seasons it is his time to be the number one guy. The two will form a very good running back duo.

The defense was not very good in 2007, but a few players did stand out. John Abraham was able to tally 10 sacks. Keith Brooking is still a very underappreciated linebacker. Chris Houston is a young cornerback that the Falcons hope will develop into a starter now that Hall is a Raider.

Jason Elam was a big signing on special teams. Morton Anderson was reliable, but not from long range. Elam will give them better production on long field goals and the kickoff game. He is a clutch kicker with the game on the line and could help the Falcons steal a couple close games.

Weaknesses: The Falcons really bottomed out last season. They ranked 29th in both scoring offense and defense. They were 23rd in offensive yards gained and 29th in defensive yards allowed. While they had some players that gave good individual contributions, it didn’t result in a good showing for the team.

I really believe that Bobby Petrino was a large part of the problem. He did not connect well with his players and obviously did not want to be there. His fights with Hall were well documented. I thought his exit to Arkansas the night after a tough Monday Night loss was gutless. Mike Smith should be a much better hire and is much more disciplined. He should be able to take this team forward.

Matt Ryan was a huge draft pick. He gives the Falcon fans something to hope for. Michael Vick did give the Falcons a lot of good years and his legal problems should not diminish that. However, the Falcons have to move on and Matt Ryan has the potential to be the franchise quarterback the Falcons need now more than ever.

It will be interesting to see if they throw him in the fire now or wait until 2009. My guess is that Redman or Harrington could start the season and that by the middle of the year Ryan will be the number one guy. However, I could see where the Falcons throw the youngster into the fire on day one. Ryan is signed so he will be at training camp on day one. This won't be a Russell situation from last year where the Raiders had not choice but to sit the September arrival most of the season. How Ryan does in training camp will go a long way to determining his opening day status. Either way, it is going to hamper the Falcons from joining the top passing offenses in 2008. This is a rebuilding year and the Falcons must accept that.

The Falcons improved their offensive line by drafting Sam Baker in the first round. He should help the Falcons continue to upgrade the offensive line. They also added Harry Douglas to give their QBs another target on offense.

On defense they added Curtis Lofton to upgrade their linebacker core. In the secondary they added Chevis Jaskson and Thomas DeCoud. The Falcons are trying to retool a defense that had ranked in the middle of the NFL over the 3 seasons prior to 2007. The first round was geared to offense, with some of their other picks going to upgrade the defense.

Prediction: I like what the Falcons did this off-season. I thought Ryan was a solid pick. I like the Turner signing. I like that they brought in Elam. The division is not very strong and they have an easy schedule based on last year’s results. That said it is very hard to win in this league with a rookie quarterback. Even if Harrington or Redman starts the season neither has proven they can win week in and week out in the NFL.

The key for the Falcons will be a fast start. They get Detroit, Tampa, Kansas City, and Carolina to open the season. The rest of the schedule is a mix of easier teams, like Oakland and tougher teams like Green Bay and Philadelphia. They have some tough games at the end of November and beginning of December, which include San Diego, at New Orleans, Tampa, and at Minnesota.

All in all, I look for the Falcons to be a more competitive team and not be outscored by over 9 points per game. That probably won't show much in the win column, but it will make for better football in Atlanta. However, I don’t see where they will get much more than 5 wins in 2008. That doesn’t mean they aren’t on the right track. It means it takes time to rebuild a franchise. If they can develop their young talent and have another good off-season in 2009 they may be able to start thinking about competing for a playoff spot.

Atlanta’s Record: 5-11 – NFC South 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

As I had promised earlier, I was going to release the 5 teams that received a kind deal from the NFL schedule maker and 5 teams that were not treated as well.  I wanted to wait until after the draft before I made my final call on that.  There are a couple things to keep in mind.  1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division.  I know Cleveland has a tough schedule as well.  14 of their 16 opponents are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule.  What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules?  I tried to pick teams from different divisions when breaking down the schedule.  2) I tried to give deference to stretches of tough or easy games over overall schedule.  While one team may have a similar strength of schedule, if those tough games are bunched into 6 weeks, I think that makes for a tougher schedule. 

 Without further delay, here is my list:

 5 Teams that Were Brutalized by the NFL Schedule Maker

1)    Pittsburgh Steelers – This is by far the most brutal schedule in the NFL.   The Steelers face 8 different playoff teams from 2007.  They also face Cleveland twice, which won 10 games and finished a tiebreaker out of the playoffs.  Here is their schedule from Week 5 to Week 14: 5) at Jacksonville, 6) Bye, 7) at Cincinnati, 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) at New England, 14) Dallas.

Thank god for the Bengals or there would be no easy games.  In particular that stretch playing Indy, San Diego, at New England, and Dallas is brutal.  The Steelers opponents winning percentage in 2008 was .598.  That is toughest in the NFL.  Their only opponents that had losing records in 2007 are Cincinnati (2) and Baltimore (2).  When you consider that most people feel the Ravens had a very quality draft, they should be improved in 2008.  The Steelers did well in the draft and have a solid nucleus returning in 2008.  However, they have no favors when it comes to the schedule. 

2)    Indianapolis – It is bad enough having to play in the AFC South where both Jacksonville and Tennessee made the playoffs.  They have the following stretch of games: 7) at Green Bay, 8) at Tennessee, 9) New England, 10) at Pittsburgh, 11) Houston, 12) at San Diego, 13) at Cleveland.

That is 5 playoff teams in 7 weeks.  Cleveland was a 10 game winner that was very busy in free agency.  There are 3 road games in 4 weeks with the only home game being against New England.  The winning percentage of the Colts opponents in 2007 was .594, which is not that much behind the Steelers.  When you consider the pass rushers Jacksonville added and the Colts not having a first round pick, I believe the gap has closed between Indy and the rest of that division.  While the Colts are still very talented, they will have more than their share of obstacles to repeat in the AFC South.

3)    Green Bay Packers – When you look at the NFL schedule, you can begin to see why Brett Favre didn’t think returning to the playoffs based on the development of the team would be enough to ensure a playoff birth.  Here is their schedule from Week 3 through 11.  3) Dallas, 4) at Tampa Bay, 5) Atlanta, 6)      at Seattle, 7) Indianapolis, 8) Bye, 9) at Tennessee, 10) at Minnesota, 11) Chicago, 12) at New Orleans.

That is a lot of tough games.  5 of those 9 teams are playoff teams.  Minnesota has added Jared Allen and the Packers couldn’t beat the Bears last year when the Pack won 13 games. Two of the Pack’s 3 losses were to Chicago.  New Orleans could return to their 2006 form this season.  The only victory that would seem certain is the Atlanta game at home.  The Packer’s opponents winning percentage in 2007 was .531.  The Packers aren’t going to have much time to adjust to life without #4.  They had best get out of the gate fast, because the schedule will be unforgiving if they need to make up ground starting in Week 6. 

4)    Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are naturally going to have a tough schedule seeing that they were one of 3 teams that made the playoffs in their own division.  Furthermore, the Eagles were 8-8 and signed the biggest free agent in the offseason in Samuel.  Still, the Cowboys have a brutal stretch in the middle of the season.  8) Tampa Bay, 9) at NY Giants, 11) at Washington, 12) San Francisco, 13) Seattle, 14) at Pittsburgh, 15) NY Giants.

That would be 6 playoff opponents in 7 weeks for the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys overall schedule had a winning percentage of .523 in 2007.  The Cowboys had a 13-3 record in 2007 and potentially added 4 key pieces on draft weekend to go along with Zach Thomas.  They did what they needed to do to keep pace.  However, they will not be able to have the lapses they had at the end of the season in 2007, otherwise their schedule is strong enough to make them pay in 2008.

5)    Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks don’t have that 8 game stretch where they play a bunch of playoff opponents.  Playing in the NFC West helps in that regard.  Still, the Seahawks opponents had a .477 winning percentage in 2007.  Of note there are 2 three game stretches that could give the Hawks some issues.  5) at NY Giants, 6) Green Bay, 7) at Tampa Bay & 12) Washington, 13) at Dallas, 14) New England.

The Seahawks have some nice games against Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo, St Louis (2), and San Francisco (2).  Arizona is probably their most formidable opponent in the division.  It is imperative that they take care of those teams and not suffer any lapses.  This shouldn’t be like 2007 when they played 2 playoff teams the entire season and none in the last 10 weeks of the season.  If the Seahawks stumble where they shouldn’t, the schedule will be much less forgiving. 

5 Teams that Were Spared by the NFL Schedule Maker

1)    New England Patriots – It must be pretty nice to be coming off a 16-0 regular season and not only get the 7th pick in the draft, but get the league’s easiest schedule at .387.  Part of that is due to the 1-15 Dolphins and 4-12 NY Jets residing in their division.  Still, here are there first 4 opponents:  1) Kansas City. 2) at NY Jets, 3) Miami, 4) Bye, 5) at San Francisco. 

The only time they play 2007 playoff opponents in back to back weeks are Pittsburgh and Seattle in Weeks 13 and 14.  There are only 4 playoff opponents out of 16 on their schedule.  That is the minimum a team that finished in 1st place can play the following season.  I’m sure the NY Jets will be better and that there will be some surprises on their schedule.  However, considering the season the Patriots had and the changes they are making on defense, they got a very favorable schedule.  It is easy not only in terms of overall quality, but the lack of quality they play in the first 5 weeks of the season while those new parts become acclimated to the Patriot’s way. 

2)    San Diego Chargers – Very similar situation to the Patriots.  They play in a bad division and therefore only drew 4 playoff opponents out of a possible 16 opponents on their schedule.  Their first 5 opponents are 1) Carolina, 2) at Denver, 3) NY Jets, 4) at Oakland, 5) at Miami.

The Chargers have a few tougher obstacles that the Patriots.  They did draw Pittsburgh and Indy in back to back weeks for Week 11 and 12.  New Orleans could rebound from their dismal 2007 campaign.  Overall, the Chargers look like they are in pretty good shape with this schedule too.  Playing in the AFC West is a blessing in of itself.  Combined with 3 games against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami gives the Chargers an easier road than most.

3)    New Orleans Saints – I believe the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints to have a bounce back season in 2008.  Here is their schedule from Week 3 to 11.  3) at Denver, 4) San Francisco, 5) Minnesota, 6) Oakland, 7) at Carolina, 8) San Diego, 9) Bye, 10) at Atlanta, 11) at Kansas City.

Consider that there is only one playoff team from 2007 in that 7 game mix.  The Saints schedule had a winning percentage of .449 in 2007.  They play against the weak AFC West.  The NFC North is a relative unknown in 2008.  Who knows if Minnesota will be able to win given their QB situation, if the Bears will return to their 06 level, or if the Packers can survive without Favre?

Furthermore, the Saints divisional leader (Tampa) won only 9 games in 2007 and has several issues of their own.  Tampa fans will remind you that is because Tampa tanked the last couple games of the season.  Still, most objective people will agree the Bucs were the weakest divisional champion in 2007.  If New Orleans has fixed their defensive problems this offseason and can run the ball in 2008, the schedule sets up nicely for them.

4)    Arizona Cardinals -  I know, I know.  People have been telling you that Arizona is the team to watch in the NFC West since Denny Green took over.  Every year they find a way to win 8 games or less.  But, when you look at this schedule, they should get off to a great start.  Here is what they are looking at:  1) at San Francisco, 2) Miami, 3) at Washington, 4) at NY Jets, 5) Buffalo, 6) Dallas, 7) Bye, 8) at Carolina, 9) at St. Louis, 10) San Francisco. 

That is exactly 2 playoff teams in their first 9 games.  The overall schedule has a winning percentage of .465, so it is fairly friendly when compared to other teams.  They have to make sure they aren’t depending on the end of the season to win games.  They finish 15) Minnesota, 16) at New England, 17) Seattle.  However, if the Cardinals can continue to progress in year 2 of the Ken Whisenhunt program they will be in good shape to be competing either for the division or a wild card spot come the end of the season.

5)    Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota has a schedule where their opponents won .551 of their games in 2007.  Many people will not have them on the easy column.  However, I go further than just looking at percentages.  They get Green Bay on the road in Week 1.  That is huge, seeing the Packers will be playing their first game without Brett Favre.  They are retiring Favre’s number.  Rodgers is going to be as nervous as he ever will be.  What better time to play Green Bay on the road and potentially steal an early season divisional win on the road?

Second, they will not be playing any cold games.  Here is their schedule for November and December: 9) Houston, 10) Green Bay, 11) at Tampa Bay, 12) at Jacksonville, 13) Chicago, 14) at Detroit, 15) at Arizona, 16) Atlanta, 17) NY Giants.  That is huge for a team that traditionally does not play well in the elements.

Third, they don’t really have any stretches where they play multiple impossible games.  I really like them to do well from Week 13-16.  That is when teams are making their playoff push.  Week 1 and 2 at Green Bay and at home against Indy will be tough.  They play Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and at Jacksonville in Week 10-12.  Green Bay and Tampa Bay are two teams that many people will not pick to repeat in the playoffs this season.  If that is your worst stretch of games, then things aren’t too bad.

While the numbers suggest that Minnesota has a tough schedule, the retirement of Brett Favre is not factored into that.  Take out Green Bay’s record and the Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of .513, which is much more manageable.  While the Vikings didn’t get a gift from the NFL, it isn’t nearly as bad as you might think.  The Vikings set up well to take an up for grab NFC North if they can survive the tough slate of AFC South games.

There you have it.  What did you think of your team’s schedule for 2008?  How do you think I broke down the schedule?  Do you think I am disrespecting a certain team’s schedule or not giving another team’s enough credit?  Let me know your thoughts.

I apologize for being on such a long hiatus.  While the NFL season is year long event I needed a break from my blog.  As a Packer fan it has definitely been a long month.  I can not wait for the draft to arrive so that we can tally up some winners and losers there and start making some predictions for 2008.   While the draft does not happen for another 3 weeks I have completed a mock draft.  I encourage you to check it out at:  http://fantasyfootballmaniaxs.alexia.us/inde
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After the opening weekend of free agency I gave an opinion as to who my top five winners and losers were of the opening weekend.  I think that we have had enough activity in free agency to tally up some winners and losers from the entire Free Agency Period of the NFL off season.  Assuming that nothing major happens between now and the NFL draft here are my 5 winners and 5 losers:

5 Winners

1) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. I think the Browns made the best of a bad situation.  They didn’t have a first round pick this year thanks to their Brady Quinn trade of a year ago.  They weren’t going to dominate the draft in 2008.  What they did do is improve their team by giving free agent dollars and draft picks for guys that have not turned 30 years old.  Corey Williams will be 28-years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29.  Stallworth will be 28 in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. Their signings should be relevant to the Browns organization for years to come.

The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency and try to pass the Steelers in the AFC North.  While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it like some other teams in the NFL that I will mention later. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it by acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. The Browns were not that far away from the Steelers last season.  If these moves pan out watch out for the Browns in the always intriguing AFC North. 

2) New Orleans Saints – The Saints did a lot of nice things to open free agency. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured in 2007 he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets began playing when Herm Edwards left. If he can re-emerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Bringing in Dan Morgan is a risk, but it was only for a one year deal.  If he can stay healthy he will contribute.  Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not the gigantic signing that was Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27-years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Deverey Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense.

I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season.  Considering they have the 10th pick in the draft they have a lot of flexibility to add another immediate impact player and improve this team that is only a year removed from the NFC Title Game. 

3) Tennessee Titans – I like how this team has built on their run to the wildcard last season.  They signed guard Jake Scott away from the Colts which helps them and hurts a division rival.  The money was reasonable at 4 years for $5.0 million per year.  They signed Alge Crumpler after he was released by the Falcons.  He should help considerably if he can stay healthy by giving Young a go to target in the red zone and third down.  They were able to bring Jevon Kearse back to the Titans.  He is a former Titan that should help if his health holds up.  They also added WR Justin McCareins from the Jets. 

These aren’t players that will send shivers down opposing fan’s spines, but they are solid players that will help the Titans win football games in 2008.  This is a team that sat out of the opening week of free agency, but was able to add solid veterans at salary friendly contracts.  The biggest key for them going forward is to have a solid draft and resolve the contract dispute with Albert Haynesworth.  He is essential to their defense.  While there were other teams that broke the bank the Titans added good talent, but stayed smart.  I think that conservative approach will pay off. 

4) - Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why in the Andy Reid era; year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL.  They were able to eliminate some older players from their roster in Spikes and Kearse and signed the most coveted free agent on the market in Samuel.  While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. Then instead of canceling out a good signing by overpaying someone they stayed put and are going to use the draft to continue to improve their roster.  The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a #### and built on that by maintaining a conservative approach. 

5) Atlanta Falcons – Very similar to what the Eagles did.  They made their big splash by signing Michael the Burner Turner to a large deal.  He should give them a nice weapon rushing the ball and is a much better compliment to the skill set of Norwood than Dunn was.  Then they do a bunch of smaller moves.  They resign Harrington and Redman to contracts.  This gives them the flexibility to either draft Ryan or go in a different direction later in the draft.  Both are decent stop gap guys when developing a franchise quarterback.  They signed Jason Elam which upgrades the kicking game.  They get a second round pick for Hall and rid themselves of a locker room problem.   They rid themselves of a big salary by releasing Crumpler.  All of these moves will allow them to continue to rebuild a franchise that was devastated by the conviction of Michael Vick.  While I don’t think the Falcons will compete for the playoffs next season, I do think they are on the road to recovery.  Instead of trying to throw money at their problems and make it worse they seem to have a solid plan going forward.

5  Losers

1) Green Bay Packers – I actually had the Packers on the winner side after the opening weekend for getting a 2nd round pick from Cleveland for a player in Corey Williams that they had absolutely no intention of keeping.  What a difference a couple of days made.  On March 4, 2008 the Packer fortunes changed forever when future Hall of Famer and all time great NFL quarterback Brett Favre announced his retirement from the NFL.  Franchise Quarterbacks are extremely tough to replace.  Hall of Fame players that have been the face of the franchise for over 15 years are next to impossible.  While life will go on for the Packers this loss will hurt significantly, especially in the 2008 season.

The Packers have a promising backup in Aaron Rodgers.  For all the people that think he is the answer because o####ood showing in the Dallas game I encourage you to research the career of Buffalo Bills quarterback Rob Johnson, who was given franchise dollars based on one game as the Jaguars backup.  The Dallas game is zero indication of the starting quarterback Rodgers will become.  The encouraging thing is that Rodgers does appear to have made strides since his first training camp in Green Bay.  The bad news is that he has had injury problems as the backup.  He broke his ankle in 2006 missing the second half of season.  Last year he pulled his hamstring in practice and was inactive for the end of the regular season.  If the Packers are going to be contender in 2008 they can’t replace the Iron Man with the China Doll.  Rodgers must stay healthy as the options behind him are bleak. 

The Packers have no way of replacing a player of Brett Favre’s talents in the draft or free agency for next season and even though they have a young and promising team, quarterback is the most important position on the team.  Losing a Hall of Fame Quarterback is huge and makes them the big loser of the 2008 off season. 

2) New York Jets – The Jets have been experts at getting old and average talent for millions this off season.  The Jets signed OG Alan Faneca to a five year $40 million dollar deal.  OT Damien Woody to a 5 year $25.5 million dollar deal.  Bubba Franks was signed to a 1 year $1.65 million dollar contract for being an injury case in Green Bay.  Tony Richardson who is an aging injured player was signed away from the Vikings.  On defense they signed ex-Cardinals OLB Calvin Pace to a six year, $42 million contract.  They traded a third and fifth round pick for ex-Panthers DT Kris Jenkins and proceeded to sign him to a 5 year $35.0 million dollar contract.  Then to top everything off they guaranteed the last $11.0 million of Cole’s salary. 

Ladies and Gentleman, I introduce to you the new and recently relocated Washington Redskins.  The only player that I would have been happy with my favorite team signing was Faneca.  Pace is a good player, but not worth the investment the Jets paid him.  Everyone else I see as either consistently injured, consistently old, or consistently underachieving.  In some cases it is all three.  The fact that they mortgaged their salary cap future to overpay average to below average talent speaks volumes that this team is not headed toward contention anytime soon.   

3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. I like what they did a little better than the Jets, because I think Hall has the ability to be a shut down corner and Gibril Wilson has the potential to be a Pro Bowl safety.  At least they signed some younger players than the Jets.  Still this free agent grab produced some embarrassing signings.  Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million. He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed. I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season. He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle. They allowed a healthy Joey Porter to walk and did not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him. Then they signed Javon Walker who has had knee issues the last few seasons to a 6 year $55.0 million dollar deal.  That one boggles my mind.  He is just too injured to warrant that big of a payout.

The Commitment to Excellence became to the Commitment to Overspending in 2008.  When you combine that with the uncertainty surrounding Lane Kiffin you have the potential for a very entertaining soap opera for those outside the Raiders Nation.

4) New England Patriots – Other than 2007 the Patriots are consistently on this side of the report, yet continue to compete for division titles. However, the Patriots have suffered a lot of losses this off season.  Samuel was signed by the Eagles, Eugene Wilson was signed by the Buccaneers, and #### was signed by the Saints.  Harrison was probably a player they needed to replace in their secondary and he is coming back.  They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin. They have suffered a lot of losses on defense. They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary destroyed.  While they did address those losses by signing Fernando Bryant, Tank Williams, and Lewis Sanders that does not replace what they lost.  While the 7th pick can address a major area of need it can’t rebuild an entire secondary and linebacker core.

Then you have to look at the offense.  Keeping Randy Moss was huge.  Had they not the Patriots would have been my number one loser of the off season, even with the Favre retirement.  Stallworth was signed by the Browns. While his numbers suggest it is a manageable loss it hurts in the fact that a safety had to respect his speed.  The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for.  I think their approach is sounder than the Jets and Raiders.  I still think they paid a hefty price this off season. 

5) Minnesota Vikings – I didn’t like the Vikings off season beginning with the overpayment of Berrian.  The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money.  This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play. Even if he had a good quarterback, I don’t see him as an elite player.  He drops the ball too much for the production he gives.  Furthermore, the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield strikes. Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams to a $33 million deal, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money. He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career for a Cincinnati team that can’t stop anyone either.  I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.

The Vikings did better than NY Jets and Oakland by not completely surrendering their future.  They only overpaid for two players not 5 or 6.  They didn’t lose the Hall of Famer the Packers did or the multiple talented players the Patriots lost.  Entering the off season the Vikings needed to 1) Upgrade their passing offense, and 2) Upgrade their passing defense. 

Here is my issue.  They received a huge break by having their division rival’s Hall of Fame QB retire.  The Bears are rebuilding their offense and their defense was down last season.  The Lions have been rebuilding since Barry Sanders retired.  The Vikings have arguably the best weapon in the division with Peterson and the division is theirs for the taking.  Yet entering the draft you have the exact same question marks you had about the team last season.

The fact is that by the start of next season the Vikings offensive line will be in its prime years.  Birk will be 32, Hutchinson will be 31 in November, and McKinnie will be 29 in September.  The Vikings have one of the most promising weapons in the NFL in Adrian Peterson.  The time is now to try to shoot to the top of the NFC North.  I think they needed to have the mentality that the Cleveland Browns had this off season, and I just didn’t see it.  I haven’t seen them do the things they need to do to take control of division that is theirs to control.  Even though Peterson will be better in year 2; a bad pass defense and lack of a passing game will produce another 8-8 season.   

That’s my take on free agency in the NFL. Remember, the draft is where the Super Bowl is won and lost.  Being a loser or winner in the free agency period is not necessarily a pivotal moment in a franchise’s off season.  There are still a lot more developments to come. I expect to do a draft recap after the April 26th NFL draft and will start doing my division previews in the beginning to middle of May.  Stay tuned.

I have maintained that the NFL is the best way to build your team into an NFL Champion.  Teams year after year throw around dollars foolishly and waste draft picks in an attempt for a quick fix.  Rarely does that type of strategy work.

Some teams definitely benefited from the opening weekend of free agency.  Here would be my winners and losers:

5 Winners

1) Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL.  Not only were they able to land the most sought after free agency, but also they were able to add a player that should succeed in their system.  While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing.  He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England.  The other thing I like about the move is that it makes them stronger against a rival.  The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of weapons in the passing game.  Green Bay has a lot of good wide receivers.  The Saints have a strong passing offense.  This move allows the Eagles to either keep Shepherd, Brown, and Samuel to form a terrific cornerback core and will allow them to cover those passing offenses.  It also gives them the flexibility to trade Shepherd and acquire additional draft picks. The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense.  The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense.  I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a ####. 

2) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades.  However, considering the Browns don’t have a first round pick this year anyway they didn’t have a lot of flexibility to dominate this draft anyway.  What they did do is improve their defensive line with younger players.  Corey Williams will be 28 years old when the season starts.  Shaun Rogers will be 29 years old.  Stallworth will be 28 years old in November.  While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed.  That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed.  Derek Anderson is still young.  Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation.  These players should be relevant for years to come.  The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years.  It was time to try to make a splash in free agency.  While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it.  They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players.  They did it be acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career.  If these guys can fit into Cleveland’s system the Browns may have gone a long way to making themselves a contender in the AFC North.  

3) New Orleans Saints – The Saints hit the ground running in free agency to improve their defense.  They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft.  While he was injured he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets play.  If he can remerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal.  Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years.  While he is not Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary.  They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27 years old this year and should help their defensive line.  They were able to retain Devery Henderson, which will help their offense.  They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense.   I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007.  The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season. 

4) New York Giants – People will be surprised that I have the Giants here considering they lost 3 players on their defense.  The reason I liked what the Giants did is they didn’t fall into the trap of trying to overpay to keep their own players.  Wilson signed a 6 year $39 million contract.  Mitchell signed a 5 year $17 million contract.  Torbor signed with Miami.  The Giants would have liked to keep those players but it would have cost them too much to do so.  While all those players made key plays in the Super Bowl run the heart of the defense was the front 4.  That is still there.  By not hitting the panic button Reese has given his club a chance to improve through the draft.  His vision paid off last season and I expect him to do more of the same this season.  While it may hurt his team in the short run it won’t hurt him as much as it will the Raiders who severely overpaid for Wilson’s services. 

5) Green Bay Packers – Here is why I put the Packers on the list.  They handled the Corey Williams situation about as well as anyone could.  The Packers were loaded with depth at defensive tackle.  They drafted Harrell in the first round last season.  They have Pickett and Jolly.  Jenkins plays on the inside in passing situations.  They had no room for Corey Williams.  Yet they applied the franchise tag and were able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy they selected in the 6th round in 2004.  Not a bad return on that investment.  The Packers now have a lot of flexibility.  If there is a player they really want in the draft they can trade up and get that player without sacrificing their entire draft.  They can trade down and acquire additional picks.  To be able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy that no longer fit in their plans was a great way to open the free agency weekend.  The Packers are never a big player in free agency anyway.  Thompson has to be ecstatic to add a 2nd round pick to his draft arsenal. 

5 Losers

1) New England Patriots – I know the Patriot way.  We don’t Rebuild we just Reload.  They don’t overpay for people.  But consider what they have lost.  Samuel was signed by the Eagles and #### was signed by the Saints.  That is a huge blow to their secondary.  They also may lose Eugene Wilson to the Titans.  At least they still have 35-year-old Rodney Harrison.  They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin.  They have suffered a lot of losses on defense.  They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary blown up.  Then you have to look at the offense.  Faulk is allegedly getting high and smoking weed everyday.  Stallworth was signed by the Browns.  Moss has not yet resigned.  There are reports he is mad at the Patriots and that the negotiations have hit a snag.  He has been rumored to go everywhere from Dallas to Green Bay to Denver.  If they lose both Stallworth and Moss they are basically in the same situation they were entering last season with linebackers that are now 2 years older.  We’ll see how Welker fares without those other two drawing coverage.   The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for.  That philosophy will be tested as much as ever this offseason.  They have lost a lot of talent.  While the Patriots are still the favorite to win the AFC East they will probably find it much harder to win with the ease they showed in 2007.

2) New York Jets – A lot of people have the Jets in the winner column.  I disagree.  Faneca agreed Saturday on a five-year, $40 million contract, with $21 million in guaranteed money.  That is a lot of money for a guy that will be 32 in September.  While it may upgrade them in the short term the cap consequence could be enormous.  He is great in run blocking but is average in pass protection.  They probably could have kept Pete Kendall around last year for far less money.  It just doesn’t make sense for that much money.  The Kris Jenkins trade was stupid.  The Jets gave up a 3rd and 5th round pick to the Panthers for a guy that has missed the 2004 and 2005 seasons.  While he has been healthy in 2006 and 2007 he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2002 and 2003.  The Jets then decided that they needed to give Jenkins a raise to the tune of a five-year contract worth $35 million, including $20 million in guaranteed money.  That’s a big gamble for a 29-year old player with that injury history.  We’ll see if the $41 million the Jets gave in guaranteed contracts actually pays off beyond 2008 or 2009. 

3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery.  That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million.  He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed.  I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season.  He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle.  Then they signed safety Gibril Wilson to a $39 dollar contract.  I don’t see the Raiders defense being any better in 2008 with these two moves and they broke the bank to do it.  The only smart thing the Raiders did this offseason was allowing Joey Porter to walk and not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him.  As long as Al Davis continues to make moves like this the Commitment to Excellence will only be a slogan.

4) San Francisco 49ers – I liked the signing of Isaac Bruce.  It gives the 49ers a veteran presence at WR and someone that is familiar with the Mike Martz system.  Adding DeShaun Foster was a solid move.  He is good insurance for Gore.  But they destroyed all the good things they did by signing a Bengal defender.  The six-year, $45 million deal that the 49ers signed with Justin Smith reportedly includes $20 million guaranteed.  That is a waste of salary cap space.  Justin Smith was an above average player on a bad defense.  He has only 43.5 sacks in 7 seasons.  His career high is 8.5 sacks his rookie year.  He had 2 sacks in 16 games last season.  He is a 4-3 end that is switching to a 3-4.  That might not translate, although you would think he could get more than 2 sacks.  I can’t see that investment paying off.  It appears the 49ers have learned nothing from their 2007 spending spree that did little to bring more wins to the table.  The 49ers would have been well served to invest in other areas. 

5) Minnesota Vikings – The Bears did good to concentrate their free agency dollars on Briggs and not Berrian.  The Vikings would have been wise to do the same thing.  The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money, which makes him the fourth-highest paid receiver in the league.  He is hardly the 4th best receiver in the league.   This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play.  The problem is the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield throws.  Furthermore, he drops the ball too much.  I don’t think the Vikings will get what they hoped out of this investment.  The loss will hurt the Bears in that they don’t have any proven receiving talent, but it won’t help the Vikings to waste all that cap space on a receiver that has never had 1,000 yards in a season.  Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams $33 million, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money.  He played on the vaunted Cincinnati pass defense last season.  He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career.  I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.

That’s my wrap up of the opening weekend in free agency.  There are still a lot more developments to come, mainly what is to become of Randy Moss and will Brett Favre decide to hang it up after a 17 year NFL Hall of Fame career.  There is never a dull moment in the NFL.  To keep up with all the developments make sure you check out The Fantasy Football Maniaxs for additional articles by myself and other talented writers:

www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com

 

Even though there is still one week left in the season 10 of the 12 playoff teams have been decided, including the top 4 seeds.  Little is going to happen in week 17 that is going to change my mind on these awards.  I hereby present my choice for the following awards:

All Pro Offensive Team:

QB – Tom Brady (Patriots)
RB –   LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers)
RB – Brian Westbrook (Eagles)
WR – Randy Moss (Patriots)
WR – Terrell Owens (Cowboys)
TE – Jason Witten (Cowboys)
OT -  Matt Light (Patriots)
OG – Allan Faneca (Steelers)
OC – Jeff Saturday (Colts)
OG – Steve Hutchinson (Vikings)
OT -  Flozell Adams (Cowboys)

All Pro Defensive Team:

DE – Aaron Kampman (Packers)
DT – Kevin Williams (Vikings)
DT – Albert Haynesworth (Titans)
DE – Jared Allen (Chiefs)
OLB - DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys)
MLB – Lofa Tatupu (Seahawks)
OLB – Mike Vrabel (Patriots)
CB – Al Harris (Packers)
CB – Asante Samuel (Patriots)
SS – Bob Sanders (Colts)
FS – Ed Reed (Ravens)

All Pro Special Teams:

K – Mason Crosby (Packers)
P - Shane Lechler (Raiders)
KR – Devin Hester (Bears)
STP - Brendon Ayanbadejo (Bears)

MVP: Tom Brady & Randy Moss – I have been saying that Randy Moss should be the MVP.  A lot more people have been saying Tom Brady.  I think if the AP were ever going to do a Co-MVP for two players from the same team it would be this duo.  Unless the Giants can do the unthinkable, they will be the main stars of the first 16-0 team.  How can just one player be the most responsible for such an achievement?  Randy Moss had 42 receptions for 533 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2007.  He has 92 receptions for 1393 yards and 21 touchdowns this season.  But Tom Brady had only 3529 yards passing and 24 touchdowns last season.  He has 4450 yards and 48 touchdowns this season.  It is clear that while these players are special on their own when you put the two on the same field it is unbelievable what can be achieved.  Therefore I believe they should share the MVP hardware.

Offensive Player of the Year: Brian Westbrook – Brian Westbrook is quietly having a remarkable season.  He has 1291 yards rushing, 4.8 yards per carry, 86 receptions, 714 yards receiving, and 12 total touchdowns.  Considering Donovan McNabb is coming off season ending knee surgery and that Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are the starting receivers, Brian Westbrook is the center of the Eagles offense.  He does everything for them.  It is time this guy gets more recognition.   He isn’t even the NFC starter in the Pro Bowl which is a crime, even with the season Adrian Peterson is having as a rookie.

Defensive Player of the Year: Bob Sanders – The reason I like Sanders is because how his production translates to the overall defensive unit’s success.  Anyone that watched the 2006 Colts realized this was a terrible defense without Bob Sanders.  What he has been able to do since the playoff run last season is amazing.  Despite losing 2 starting cornerbacks and June to free agency, McFarland to season ending injury in preseason, and Dwight Freeney to injury after the Patriots game nothing has changed.  The Colts have maintained their ability to stop other offenses.  The Colts rank 3rd in yards per game allowed, 1st in pass yards allowed, and 4th in points allowed.  Bob Sanders is the number one reason for that.  While he has only 2.5 sacks and 2 interceptions, his 91 tackles rank among the top of the league for defensive backs.  Most of the time a safety will have a lot of tackles because the front 7 is getting gashed on a consistent basis.  That’s not the case for Bob Sanders.  He is the straw that stirs the Colts drink on defense and he deserves recognition for that this season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson – This was pretty much a no brainer.  He is 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 1305 yards rushing and he missed 2 games due to injury.  He wasn’t even the starter at the opening of the year.  He set a NFL single game rushing record with 296 yards against the San Diego Chargers.  He had another 200 yard game against the Bears in Chicago.  He also has 13 touchdowns.  Enough said.  

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Willis – Patrick Willis would be eligible to be Defensive Player of the Year if he played on a relevant team and relevant defensive unit.  However, for Defensive Rookie of the Year he too is a no brainer.  He leads the NFL with 162 tackles including consecutive 18 tackle games at Arizona and at Carolina and 20 tackles against Tampa Bay.  He should be a staple in the 49ers defense for years to come. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Brett Favre & Randy Moss – Funny that these guys would be linked together for this award considering they almost became teammates in April.  Both have experienced great seasons.  I already talked about Moss’s rebirth in the MVP section.  Favre rose his completion percentage from 56.0 to 66.2.  His rating went up from 72.7 to 94.1.  He has 26 touchdowns compared to 18 in 2006.  His interceptions have also dropped from 18 to 15.  He also had his first 4,000 yard season since 2004.  All this production is coming with a rookie running back, full back, and third wide receiver.  Don’t forget that Greg Jennings is only in his second year and the offensive line has 3 second year starters up the middle.  Many people thought #4 was holding the Packers franchise back by continuing to play.  Instead, he has put them on his back.  It’s too hard to decide which one has had the better comeback.  Therefore, I went with both.

Breakout Player of the Year:  Braylon Edwards – The Browns finally found a quarterback, and suddenly his numbers went through the roof.  He had only 9 touchdowns his first two years in the league.  He has 15 touchdowns this year.  His previous best was 61 receptions and 884 yards.  He has 77 receptions for 1222 yards.  People usually target the 3rd year as a receiver’s breakout season, and Edwards did not disappoint in 2007.

Most Surprising Player:  Derek Anderson - If anyone would have told you that the Brown’s quarterback would have 3635 yards, 28 touchdowns, 18 picks, and an 82.7 QB rating you would have thought the Browns struck it big with Brady Quinn.  Certainly, it would not have been their 3rd string QB Derek Anderson.  Yet, when Frye disappointed in the opener and was traded to the Seahawks, many thought that Anderson would be a short term solution until the lame duck coaching staff was ready to given the ball to Quinn.  Instead Anderson played Pro Bowl caliber football and has had the Browns in playoff contention the entire season.  If the Titans lose this weekend the Browns clinch their first playoff appearance since 2002.   

Most Disappointing Player: Shaun Alexander – 27th in rushing yards with 685.  A 3.4 yard per carry average.  3 rushing touchdowns.   Alexaner was the MVP of the league and set a single season touchdown record back in 2005.  While injuries hurt his productivity, this guy had a dramatic drop in statistics this season.  People thought Alexander would decline this season, but I don’t think anyone saw it coming this fast.  He basically caused Mike Holmgren to abandon the running game all together. 

Worst Free Agency Signing in 2007 - Joey Porter - The Dolphins gave this guy $20 million guaranteed salary to help them win 1 game in 2007.  Part of the problem is they never were able to use him properly by lining him up on the same side of the ball as Jason Taylor.  However, he only had 63 tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 5.5 sacks for a defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL.  With a team that will be looking to get younger in 2008 the Dolphins will probably be paying for this bad signing for many years to come. 

Player to Watch for a Breakout in 2008: Matt Schaub – Johnson and Schaub were never able to stay healthy the whole season.  With the defense on the rise and another year in this offense, I would look for big things from Matt Schaub.  He had a good completion percentage and threw for a lot of yards.  His 9 touchdown to 9 interceptions don’t look too bad when you consider he had the 12th best QB rating in the league at 87.2.  He is a player I was impressed with in limited duty that I would look for big things from in 2008 if he can stay healthy. 

Player to Watch for Decline in 2008: Ray Lewis – While he still had 121 tackles this season, the injuries seemed more frequent and he also seemed to have lost a step.  With 12 years of NFL experience and 33 years of age going into next season I just wonder if this guy has enough to put up the numbers we are accustomed too.  I hope I am wrong.  He is as exciting as any player on defense in the NFL.

Head Coach of the Year: Romeo Crennel - While a lot of people will go with Mike McCarthy or Darth Bill, I believe Romeo deserves the nod.  This is a team that has averaged 5 wins a season since returning to the league in 1999.  They had one playoff season in that span.  Everyone said he went from the hot seat to the firing squad this season and when the Browns opened up with a 34-7 home loss to the Steelers.  When Frye was traded that week, everyone thought panic was in full effect.  Instead the Browns traded Frye, went with Derek Anderson, and went 9-5 thereafter.  With a Titans loss the Browns will be in the playoffs.  Even if they miss the playoffs they will still probably finish 10-6.  This team picked 3rd in the draft last season.  For them to be on the brink of 10 wins is amazing.  While McCarthy and The Hood had fantastic seasons, they had two future Hall of Famers in Brady and Favre.  What Crennel did with Anderson was nothing short of amazing. 

Front Office of the Year: Green Bay Packers – Everyone including me thought Ted Thompson was clueless for relying on Frank Walker as their only free agent signing.  What Ted Thompson saw was a young group of players on the rise.  While having #4 will make any GM look good and passing on Randy Moss would appear to be a mistake, you can’t argue with 12-3 and a first round bye out of the youngest team in the NFL.  Credit Ted Thompson for doing it his way and assembling this group out of young players and no names from a team that was 12-20 in 2005 and 2006.

Best Team: New England Patriots – When you go 15-0 there really isn’t much debate.  They have set all kinds of records in what has been a historic season. 

Worst Team: Miami Dolphins – Lost their first 13 games before pulling one out against the Ravens.  They returned to normal with a 28-7 loss to New England the following week.  With only 1 win they are a lock to be drafting first in April.  Hopefully The Tuna can turn around this once proud franchise. 

Most Surprising Team: Green Bay Packers – The Packers gave some hints this was on the horizon when they ended 2006 on a 4 game winning streak.  While some people thought they would flirt with .500 no one saw this coming.  They shot straight to the top of the NFC with a couple good draft classes, a second year head coach, and a Hall of Fame QB who many thought had nothing left in the tank.

Most Improved Team: Cleveland Browns – As I said above, this was a traditional 5 win club with a lot of promising young players, but nothing to put together those pieces.  Derek Anderson really put together the Browns offense.  To watch how this team has improved from the first day of training camp to the end of the season is remarkable.

Most Disappointing Team: Baltimore Ravens & Chicago Bears – Both teams were 13-3 and had top ranked defensive units.  The Ravens lost to eventual champion Indy and the Bears did the same in the Super Bowl.  The Ravens started off 4-2, before collapsing to 4-11.  The Bears never really got started.  They failed to win consecutive games and are 6-9.  While the Saints were also a strong candidate, at least they are still in playoff contention.  These teams never made it to Thanksgiving as serious contenders for anything.

Most Dysfunctional Team: Atlanta Falcons -  A QB in jail, a coach that left with 3 games left in the season, and a Big Tuna that left Arthur Blank standing at The Alter.  This has become the definition of Team Chaos.  It will take years to fix this mess.  Good luck.

That’s all for my 2007 NFL awards.  What are your thoughts?  Do you like the picks or think I should have chosen someone else?  Now that we have only one week left what it the one thing you took away from this season?  Let me know your thoughts.