I present to you my final preseason letter.  Sorry it is a little late coming to my blog, but the Labor Day holiday slowed me down.  Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action. 

Standings

AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. Miami (3-1)                                                              1.Washington (3-2)

2. NY Jets (3-1)                                                           2. Dallas (2-2)

3. Buffalo (2-2)                                                            3. New York Giants (2-2)

4. New England (0-4)                                                4. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

 

 AFC South                                                                    NFC South

1. Jacksonville (3-1)                                                    1. Tampa Bay (3-1)           

2. Tennessee (3-1)                                                      2. Atlanta (2-2)

3. Houston (2-2)                                                           3. Carolina (2-2)

4. Indianapolis (1-4)                                                    4. New Orleans (2-2)

 

AFC North                                                                     NFC North

1.Pittsburgh (3-1)                                                        1.Detroit (4-0)           

2.Cincinnati (2-2)                                                        2.Chicago (1-3)

3.Baltimore (1-3)                                                         3.Green Bay (1-3)

4.Cleveland (0-4)                                                        4. Minnesota (1-3)

 

AFC West                                                                        NFC West

1. San Diego (3-1)                                                     1. Seattle (3-1)           

2. Denver (2-2)                                                           2. Arizona (2-2)

3. Kansas City (2-2)                                                  3. St Louis (2-2)

4. Oakland (1-3)                                                        4. San Francisco (2-2)

Best Team of the Preseason:  It would have to be the Detroit Lions.  They were the only team to go undefeated with a 4-0 record.  They outscored their opponents 80-32 in those four wins.  Their 48-point differential was the best in the NFL.  We’ll see how that translates into regular season success, but this team played better than anyone throughout the preseason.

Worst Team of the Preseason:  It would be a toss up between the New England Patriots and the Cleveland Browns.  Both teams went 0-4 and were the only two teams not to win a single preseason game.  Both teams were outscored by 33-points in the preseason.  New England never put Brady on the field.  Cleveland didn’t play a lot of starters either and managed to get their starting QB hurt with a concussion in their second preseason game.  Both of these teams will have to hope the preseason means absolutely nothing.

Individual Winner of the Preseason:  You could go a lot of ways with this, but I would think Kurt Warner was the big winner of the preseason.  Matt Leinart was expected to be the starter.  Arizona all but tried to hand the job to him.  Instead, he cemented the deal with his 3-pick performance against Oakland.  Warner was quickly named the starter for the opener.  This was a job that was not thought to be in serious competition and Warner emerged as the starter.  It is a big break for the veteran who is probably getting his last shot as a starter in the NFL.

Individual Loser of the Preseason:  It goes without saying that Matt Leinart would also be here.  So, I’ll talk about another player.  Alex Smith.  In 2005 Alex Smith was the big winner in the Smith vs. Rodgers sweepstakes.  Smith was the number one overall pick and received a 20 plus million signing bonus.  He was able to start games his rookie year.  Rodgers went to Green Bay to back up Favre when he plummeted to the end of the first round.  He has thrown 59 passes.  Fast-forward to the 2008 opener and Rodgers is now the starter for a team that is extremely young and promising.  Smith is now the backup to  J.T. O'Sullivan who was a 6th round pick in 2002 and has bounced around the NFL since.  What looked like a blessing for Smith has turned into a nightmare and what looked like a no win situation for Rodgers has turned into one with a lot of promise.  While no one envies Aaron Rodger’s position of having to replace #4, it is infinitely better than what Alex Smith is going through.

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  Still waiting for the regular season on this. 

Overall Impressions of the Preseason:  I’m not going to get into too much detail with this.  I gave my thoughts on 10 topics last week, so there isn’t a whole lot of different information to report based on preseason games where most first units played a series or two. 

What I did want to write about is the topic that the preseason is too long.  Our society is very impatient when it comes to self-gratification.  We want our wants to be fulfilled right now.  While the first week of preseason brings excitement by the second week we want our fantasy leagues to start and we want our NFL football.   When one of our favorite football players gets hurt in the preseason it makes us even more mad that our favorite team was forced to go through four preseason games.

I am in favor of the preseason as it stands right now.  Injuries are part of the game.  If you have only one preseason game than players stand to get hurt in the opener or the second game of the season.  Better to have a star player go down in preseason where you have time to sign a player that another team had to cut or move in another player on the roster and give him a chance to become acclimated with the first unit.  Had Osi Umenyiora gone down in Week 2 of the regular season the Giants would have been no better off than they are now and bringing back Michael Strahan would not have been a very viable option.  While Strahan did eventually turn the Giants down, at least bringing him back was an option, because it was still preseason.

Preseason helps undrafted rookies and unheard of free agents win jobs.  Does Terrell Davis become the starting running back in 1995 without four games in the preseason to show his stuff?  Does JT O’Sullivan win the job this year without four games to show what he can do? 

The preseason isn’t about the star players.  It’s a chance for the unheard of guy to make a roster and that is an important part of the NFL.  Teams need time to practice so they can look sharp in the opener.  Teams start off slow enough as it is as they look for timing and chemistry.  It would be even worse without the four game practice session.   

While preseason is not my favorite part of the NFL I understand it’s a necessity. Baseball, Basketball, and Hockey have preseason games.  Why should the NFL be any different?  I am just glad that on Thursday the games are for real. 

A Look Ahead:  Last year I only picked the 5 most important games.  This year I am going to pick every game and list my running record at the top of the page.  I will touch on the five most important games of that week and just write a few sentences about the rest.  I am not picking against the spread.  Just straight up winners and losers.  Here is the opening slate of games:

1) Washington at New York Giants:  This is going to be another NFC East slugfest.  Defending Champions always have a bull’s eye on their back and for the NY Giants it will be no different.  Eli Manning is going to have to play with the same composure he did through out the postseason last year.  The Giants losses on defense from a year ago will not make the NY Giants bottom out as a unit, but are significant.  The Redskins are now in the Jim Zorn era and look to win their first game.  I like the Giants in the opener.  I don’t think the Redskins have an explosive enough offense and the Redskins are pretty injured on the defense line.  Jason Taylor is expected to play, but how well is a different question.  I think the Giants are able to establish the run, capitalize on some play action passing and win the game.  Winner:  NY Giants

2) Jacksonville at Tennessee: Early division games are always important and this one is no different.  The AFC South is a loaded division and both these teams made the playoffs in 2007.  The Jaguars ended last season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL and look to open with that form.  The Titans are still very similar to last season.  Strong defense, good running game, and questionable pass game.  They were able to beat the Jags in last season’s opener behind a running game explosion.  I don’t expect that to happen this year.  I think the Jags stop the run much better this time around and I think the Jags open up the season with a much-needed road win.  It will be low scoring, but the Jags have the backs and the defense to win that type of game.  Winner:  Jacksonville

3) Dallas at Cleveland:  This is a very intriguing matchup between two very explosive offenses.  The Cowboy’s offense features TO, who has been one of the best in the business for several years now.  The Browns offense features Braylon Edwards, who exploded onto the scene in his 3rd year.  Both are touchdown machines.  Edwards was second in the NFL with 16 touchdown catches and Owens was third with 15 touchdown catches.  However, that is really where the intrigue stops.  The Cowboys have a massive offensive line and while the Browns front 7 is improved, it isn’t improved enough.  They will either have to stack the box and let Owens go through their secondary or they will have to double Owens and watch Barber destroy them.  I expect the Cowboys to put up a lot of points and win this high scoring game.  Winner:  Dallas

4) Chicago at Indianapolis: Another AFC vs. NFC game.  Lost in the fact that Green Bay is Chicago’s biggest rivalry is the fact that these teams are only a couple hours apart and the Indiana vs. Illinois rivalry is very strong too.  Both these teams met in the Super Bowl just 2 seasons ago.  While it will never have the intensity of Packers vs. Bears, it is still a good game to watch every four years.  Chicago has a chance in this game if their offense can move the ball and not make silly mistakes.  I don’t expect Manning to go 35 for 45 for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns seeing he just started practicing a week a go.  The Colts will hope to feature a strong running game and let Manning get into a flow after missing so much time.  I think the Bears could force some Colt’s mistakes, particularly in the first half.  However, I don’t think they have the offense to take advantage of that.  I look for the Colts to win their opener in their new stadium:  Winner:  Indy

5) Minnesota at Green Bay: The first game of the post Favre era kicks off in Green Bay against longtime rival Minnesota.  This was supposed to be a celebration of one of the greatest careers the NFL has ever seen.  Instead, Favre is now a Jet and the comparisons will start with this game.  Each player will be evaluated versus the other.  Each teams wins and losses will be compared with the other.  The biggest story of the 2008 season will be how Rodgers does compared to Favre and how the Packers do compared to the Jets.  I like the Vikings in this game.  I think they are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they became part of this soap opera when they were charged and later cleared of tampering with Favre.  Nothing would please them more than to embarrass the Packers.  I think Peterson and Taylor will be able to establish the run against the Packers front 7.  Grant has had a sore hamstring the entire season.  I don’t look for him to be effective against this tough run defense.  With no running game, I don’t expect Rodgers to have a great night.  I think his biggest strength will be play action passing and using his mobility to get out of the pocket.  It’s hard to do that if the running game isn’t working.  I think the Minnesota Front 7 will put pressure on Rodgers and force some sacks and turnovers.  It should be a close game, but I expect the Vikings to prevail.  Winner:  Minnesota

and the rest…

6) Detroit at Atlanta:  Detroit uses it’s preseason momentum and strong receiving core to prevail in Atlanta:  Winner:  Detroit

7) Seattle at Buffalo: I already have a lot of Hawks fans upset and this isn't going to help repair my image.  This has the potential to be the upset of the week.  Seattle isn’t a very good road team and has a lot of receivers that are injured now.  They played well in the preseason, but this is the regular season.  Buffalo is a tough place to play and looks to be improved from a year ago.  Seattle defense will play well and keep it close.  I am still going with Seattle, but I expect a very close game.  Winner:  Seattle

8) NY Jets at Miami: I look for the Jets to simplify the playbook.  Expect a light day for Favre and a heavy dose of Jones and Washington.  Jets win their opening game against an improved Dolphin team.  Winner:  NY Jets

9) Kansas City at New England:  Now that the games matter and Brady is playing expect a better effort.  Patriots win in their opener and win big.  Winner:  New England

10) Tampa Bay at New Orleans:  New Orleans played Tampa Bay awful last year.  One blowout and one gift.  I look for New Orleans to turn that around this year.  I like Brees to have a good day and the Saints to prevail:  Winner:  New Orleans

11) St Louis at Philadelphia:  St Louis has a world of problems on defense.  Philly has some concerns on offense with Curtis out.  Philly still has the better team.  Westbrook wins the showdown with Jackson and Eagles win the game.  Winner:  Philadelphia

12) Houston at Pittsburgh:  Pittsburgh has a lot to prove after their disappointing end to the season.  Houston is improved, but not enough to go to Pittsburgh and win.  Steelers in a close one.  Winner:  Pittsburgh

13) Cincinnati at Baltimore:  Cincinnati always plays Baltimore strong.  Bengals come into this game a little hurt at the receiver spot, but I expect the offense to play well enough to escape Baltimore with a win.  Winner:  Cincinnati

14) Carolina at San Diego:  Chargers have one of the deepest teams in the NFL.  They may need it with all the injuries they have.  I expect them to play tough at home on both sides of the ball and win a close one against the Smithless Panthers.  Winner:  San Diego

15) Arizona at San Francisco:  Warner is going to have a big day in this game.  49ers may be able to put up some points in this game, but not enough to win against Arizona.  Winner:  Arizona

16) Denver at Oakland:  I don’t know which to pick here.  Oakland runs the ball very well and Denver couldn’t stop it last year.  The same applies to the Denver running game and Raider rush defense.  The Broncos are without Marshall who is one of their biggest weapons.  That is huge for the Raiders.  On the flip side Russell is going to have to pass against a very tough secondary.  I like Denver to run the ball well in this game and pull out a close win.  Winner:  Denver

That’s all for this week.  Enjoy the opening week of football and I look forward to reading your comments this week.  

I present to you my third preseason letter. Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the fourth week of preseason action.

Standings

AFC East                                 NFC East

1. Buffalo (2-1)                      1.Washington (3-1)

2. Miami (2-1)                        2. Philadelphia (2-1)

3. New York Jets (2-1)         3. Dallas (1-2)

4. New England (0-3)          4. New York Giants (1-2)

AFC South                             NFC South

1. Houston (2-1)                  1. Carolina (2-1)

2. Tennessee (2-1)             2. New Orleans (2-1)

3. Jacksonville (2-1)           3. Tampa Bay (2-1)

4. Indianapolis (1-3)           4. Atlanta (1-2)

AFC North                             NFC North

1.Pittsburgh (2-1)               1.Detroit (3-0)

2.Baltimore (1-2)                2.Green Bay (1-2)

3.Cincinnati (1-2)               3.Minnesota (1-2)

4.Cleveland (0-3)               4.Chicago (0-3)

AFC West                           NFC West

1.San Diego (2-1)             1. Arizona (2-1)

2. Denver (1-2)                  2. Saint Louis (2-1)

3. Kansas City (1-2)         3. San Fran (2-1)

4. Oakland (1-2)                4. Seattle (2-1)

MVP of the Week: DeAngelo Williams had a very nice game with 9 carries for 101 yards and 1 touchdown. Darren Sproles had a nice game on Monday with 13 carries for 102 yards and 1 touchdown. Jason Hill from the 49ers had 4 catches for 91 yards and 1 touchdown. However, this week belonged to the quarterbacks, which is typical in a 3rd preseason game. There were 3 starters that were very impressive. Aaron Rodgers played nearly perfect in Denver. He was 18 for 22 for 193 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 picks, a 118.4 rating, and 1 rushing touchdown. Marc Bulger went 18 for 25 for 182 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 picks, and a 119.1 QB rating. Drew Brees went 14 for 22 for 199 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 picks, and a 108.0 QB rating. Finally, Charlie Frye impressed filling in for Matt Hasselbeck. He had 19 completions in 29 attempts for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 picks, and a 111.1 QB rating.

Loser of the Week: Hard not to start with Matt Leinart. Despite Arizona’s 24-0 win, he lost his starting job with his 4 for 12, 24 yards, 0 touchdowns, 3 picks, and 2.8 QB rating. Washington’s run defense had a lot to be desired. They gave up 101 yards to Williams and 100 yards to Stewart in Carolina’s 47-3 domination. Finally, Brodie Croyle failed to seize the starting job for the Chiefs with his 12 for 21, 110 yard, 0 touchdown, 1 pick, and 51.7 QB rating. The Chiefs were shutout by the Dolphins 24-0.

Game of the Week: San Francisco and Chicago gave us a 37-30 contest that was tied 20-20 at half time. Orton had 2 touchdown passes and Sullivan and Smith combined for 2 touchdown passes. Dallas and Houston also played a good game that was won 23-22 by Dallas. Finally, San Diego and Seattle gave us a good Monday Night game, with San Diego taking the lead 18-17 on a 2-point conversion with 2:12 left in the 4th.

The Bay of Pigs: The Jets and the Giants didn’t give us a lot of scoring action. They played to a 0-0 first half tie, before posting a 10-7 second half score. The Giants were plagued with 4 for 13 third down efficiency and the Jets were plagued with 12 penalties. It was a pretty sloppy game.

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Still waiting for the regular season on this.

Remembering Gene Upshaw: The NFL lost one of its greatest players and Labor Leader in Gene Upshaw. He died of cancer at 63 years old.

Gene Upshaw got his start in the NFL as a guard for the Oakland Raiders. He was a first or second All Pro 11-times, 2-time Super Bowl Champion, member of the NFL’s 1970’s All Decade Team, and a member of the NFL’s 75th Anniversary All-Time Team. He started 207 consecutive games and played 307 total games. Gene Upshaw and Art Shell teamed to form one of the most dominant lines in NFL History. Upshaw was the only player in Pro Football history to play in three Super Bowls with the same team in three different decades.

He also led an incredible life after football. He served as the Executive Director of the National Football League Players Association from 1983 to 2008. That was a major accomplishment in terms of civil rights for a black person to hold a position of that stature. He was largely responsible for bringing the players free agency. Player’s salaries skyrocketed in his tenure.

Upshaw did not serve without controversy. Many players felt he was too friendly with NFL Owners and Management. The NFL is the only major American sports league without guaranteed contracts. He also received a lot of criticism for how the league treated former players in terms of benefits and disability.

Regardless of your opinion of his work it is rare that a player of his stature goes on to have an even more famous career after pro football. He is one of the most influential people in the history of the NFL and his death was an unexpected tragedy. He was just diagnosed with pancreatic cancer on August 17, 2008. He died just 3 days later.

Hospital Visit: This is a pretty long list this week. Harry Williams, Jr. had the most serious injury. The Texans receiver was temporarily paralyzed from the neck down. He regained use of his extremities on the way to the hospital. He had surgery to repair a broken C3 vertebrae. His career is likely over.

It was a bad week for defensive players. Osi Umenyiora was probably the most devastating injury with his devastating knee injury. He as lost for the season.

Shaun Merriman has a career threatening knee injury. He is seeking medical advice all over the country as he contemplates whether to shutdown his season or play through the pain and risk permanent injury. Tuesday will be his 4th doctor. The previous three recommended he shut his season down. Either way it is hard to imagine him being as effective in 2008 as we are used to seeing.

Jason Taylor is expected to be out for a couple weeks and may miss the season opener against the Giants.

Carson Palmer suffered a broken nose. He should be ready for the season opener. His teammate Chad Johnson has a partially torn labrum. He expects to play with that injury. I don’t expect it to be too big of a deal. Kellen Winslow played with the same injury last season and tight ends have significantly more blocking responsibility. Still it’s a question mark.

Matt Hasselbeck has a sore back and missed the Charger’s game. He is expected back for Week 1. With all the injuries they have at receiver they can’t afford for him to be limited or on the bench, even with how well Frye played on Monday and Wallace has played this preseason.

Brian Dawkins is questionable for the start of the season due to an ankle injury he suffered against New England. Kevin Curtis had sports hernia surgery and will probably not be back until midseason.

Starting Dallas left guard Kyle Kosier strained his foot and is expected to miss 1 month.

The Raiders suspect offense was weakened further with receiver Drew Carter and fullback Oren O'Neal suffering season ending injuries. I told you it was a long list this week.

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) Cause for concern in New England? – Again, I’m not worried about 0-3 for New England. Brady isn’t playing on offense and a veteran team with this much playoff experience is not going to go full bore in the preseason.

It isn’t so much the losses, but how the losses occurred. It’s the 17-play 80-yard drive that Griese went 8 for 8 on to open the game against the first team defense. Its McNabb’s 13 for 17 for 180 yards and 1 touchdown against 0 picks. It’s the fact they have been outscored 42 to 70 in 3 preseason games.

Veteran teams struggle in preseason. The Colts are traditionally a bad preseason team. They went 1-3 in 2007, 1-3 in 2006, and 0-5 in 2005. They started all three of those seasons at least 9-0.

However, this also reminds me of the 2002 St Louis Rams. That team was coming off a tough loss as a favorite in the prior years Super Bowl. That was the 14-2 unstoppable favorite that lost by a field goal to big underdog New England. That team went 0-4 in preseason and looked awful. That team battled injuries and poor play on its way to a 7-9 season.

Until we see Brady on the field its impossible to know how this team does in 2008. Still, it has been a very bad preseason for the Patriots. It is enough to have me concerned as we approach the regular season.

2) Dallas coming into form – This is exactly what the 0-2 Cowboys needed. Romo was very sharp going 15 for 19 for 166 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 pick. Barber had 13 carries for 75 yards and 1 touchdown. Owens, Hurd, and Crayton had good halves. The Cowboys were up 20-10 at the half, before holding on for a 23-22 win.

This is exactly what you want if you are the Cowboys. They got a good game in their most important preseason game. They can build off this performance. Great week for the Cowboys.

3) Weekly Favre update – No newsletter would be complete without a weekly Favre update. He played very well. 9 for 12 for 96 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 picks. He had a 30-yard pass called back on a penalty and a long touchdown pass called back on a penalty. He’s slinging the ball, getting good velocity, and seems to be in decent command of the offense.

The biggest concern for the Jets is with so many new starters they are going to get false starts, motion penalties, and other mistakes that come with not having played together for a long time. Having a veteran like Favre can speed up the process. While the Jets look like anything but Super Bowl contenders the Favre experiment appears to have been a worthwhile gamble. They will need to continue to work hard to be ready for the opener.

4) The effect of Osi Umenyiora’s season ending injury – This is a devastating loss. Osi Umenyiora has led the NY Giants in sacks each of the last 3 years. He has either led or tied the team for the lead in sacks each of the last 3 years. He has 40.5 sacks over the last 4 years. Osi Umenyiora had 6 sacks in one game against the Eagles in 2007. He is a big part of their pass rush.

The plan to replace Strahan was to move Tuck to defensive end and have him team with Osi Umenyiora as double digit sack artists. Now the Giants have to contemplate whether it is worth making an offer to Strahan to come out of retirement. Strahan has to figure out if he is interested. Both have to decide whether he is a) in shape to comeback, and b) if not, how long that would take. This is not like Favre who was not in camp, but was keeping himself in NFL shape. Strahan is currently vacationing in Greece. I can’t imagine he’s doing 2-3 hours of workouts in the morning.

The Giants can survive this even if Strahan doesn’t comeback. They can move Mathias Kiwanuka back to his original position of defensive end. He played that position at Boston College as well as his first year with the NY Giants. That would weaken their linebacker position.

This is the worst possible scenario of preseason. To have a player of this caliber go down in preseason is the nightmare every coach has in August. The Giants still have the talent in place to compete in the NFC East. However, it will be challenging to play as well as they did at the end of last season. The Giants losing Strahan, Mitchell, Torbar, and Wilson in the off-season was not something to take lightly. Losing Umenyiora makes it that much more difficult. This injury puts even more pressure on Eli Manning to avoid the mistakes that plagued him in the 2007 regular season and continue on his strong postseason run.

5) Is Detroit emerging as a division favorite – Detroit has had a good preseason. In 3 games they have outscored their opposition 66-26. They squeaked out a 3-point win against the Giants before crushing Cincinnati and Cleveland. Kitna has been very sharp in preseason. Kevin Smith has run the ball well. Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams have both impressed. The defense has not gotten pushed around.

It’s not inconceivable the Lions could contend for this division. They started the 2007 season 6-2, before fading to a 1-8 finish. Smith should allow them to run the ball better in 2008 and Kitna shouldn’t have as many interceptions now that the premier game manager Mike Martz is blessing the 49ers with his run and gun style.

Green Bay has that Brett guy gone. Chicago is fielding an offense that figures to be somewhere between below average and terrible. That leaves Minnesota as the favorite. Minnesota has a lot of questions at quarterback. It is not inconceivable they could struggle at times. While Minnesota is probably the favorite with Green Bay in the mix, Detroit is playing the best preseason ball of any team in this division, if not the NFL. If they can carry that into the regular season they will add some intrigue to what figures to be a wide-open division.

6) Rodgers impressive in Denver; Packers were not – Rodgers played very well in Denver. He went 18 for 22 for 193 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 picks. He was only sacked once. He led the Packers on scoring drives in 4 of his 5 possessions. Despite that the Packers trailed 17-13 at the half and only won 27-24.

The reason for that was a terrible defensive effort. Ryan punted a ball that was downed inside the 1-yard line. The Broncos took that ball 99 yards down the field and scored a touchdown on the Packers. Then the Packers tried to cover Marshall with backup corner Williams in 1-on-1 coverage. The result was a touchdown drive that took 16 seconds.

I have not been very impressed with the Packers defense in preseason. The Bengals scored 20 of their 30 preseason points in the opener against the Packers. San Fran put 34 points on the board. The Broncos put 24 points on the board. Granted some of that was against backups. Still, what are the Packers going to do in the secondary if Woodson or Harris gets hurt? What are they going to do in nickel and dime sets?

The Packers will not be as good on offense in 2008 as they were in 2007. That is a given now that #4 is not there. In order for the Packers to succeed they will have to run the ball better and play better defense. Grant hasn’t carried the ball yet and the defense played much better in the preseason last year. That is not a good sign for Packer fans.

7) Raven’s offensive woes – This is an offense that has not disappointed. No one expected them to do well in 2008 and they are not giving us a false sense of hope in the preseason. The Ravens managed 13 first half points against the Patriots. Since then the Patriot defense has been shredded. The Ravens followed that up with 7 first half points against the Vikings. Then they had 3 first half points against the potent Rams defense.

Flacco has a 66.3 QB rating in the preseason. Boller has a 51.8. Smith has a 46.8. Compare that to the 115.6 QB rating of Brett Ratliff, 92.3 rating of Aaron Rodgers, or 82.5 rating of Brady Quinn. The preseason is supposed to be a chance for young quarterbacks to succeed against vanilla defenses. The Ravens are struggling to score any points with their first team. Their quarterbacks are struggling to put up good numbers in preseason action. That doesn’t bode well for the regular season where they play both the NFC East and AFC South.

Ravens fans will argue that McGahee isn’t playing right now and will help this offense. That is a valid defense. There are just so many tough defenses on the schedule and a lack of playmakers that are going to help these young guys put up big numbers. It’s a vicious circle. The skill players aren’t good enough to overcome average quarterback play and the quarterbacks aren’t good enough to overcome average skill position play. Mason, Heap, and McGahee are good players, but they aren’t game changers. None of those guys should be featured offensive weapons. The result is going to be a long year for the offense in Baltimore.

8) Matt Leinart’s failure, affect on Cardinals – This is why I wasn’t afraid to pick the Cardinals to win the AFC West. I am disappointed in Matt Leinart. I thought he had the potential to breakout this season. Reports out of Arizona were that he was doing well in practice and with the offense. However, he had a horrible game against the Raiders in which he had 3 interceptions. The result was a benching.

The nice thing is this doesn’t hurt Arizona too much. In fact it may help them. Kurt Warner is not the same guy he was in St Louis, but he still threw 27 touchdown passes last year. He has good chemistry with the star receivers and is a player that defenses respect. His only fault is that he tends to hold on to the ball too long causing unnecessary fumbles and sacks.

That said Warner isn’t going to get rattled in a big game. He is a solid veteran influence on a team that needs to learn how to win. While Matt Leinart appears to be headed for the bust category Arizona still has an excellent chance to compete in the NFC West.

9) What happened to Washington? - This was the head scratching game of the week. It’s one thing to lose a preseason game. But 47-3 is always going to be cause for concern, especially against a Carolina team that many people consider a fringe playoff team at best.

The majority of the damage was done in a 31 point 2nd quarter. Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Johnathan Stewart, and Dante Rosario all got into the mix. Credit Carolina for playing a good game.

Washington was 3-0 headed into this game; so one preseason blowout isn’t reason for panic. Jason Taylor is now hurt and figures to miss time. He might not be ready to open the season as the Redskins face the NY Giants on September 4th to open the season. The team still seems to be learning the new offense and has had a number of injuries on defense.

The Redskins can’t afford to get off to a slow start. They play at New York, Dallas, and Philadelphia in the first 5 games of the season. They host New Orleans and Arizona. It is imperative that they don’t dig themselves a 2-3 or 1-4 hole. In that division it will be tough to overcome that.

10) What is going on in Cleveland? – If Detroit as been the most impressive team of the preseason the Browns have been one of the worst. They played well in the opener against the Jets. Since then they have imploded. Even though they only lost 37-30 to the Giants they trailed that game 31-3 in the second quarter. Those were backups getting the team back into the game. Then they lost 26-6 to Detroit.

Anderson suffered a concussion against the Giants and did not play against Detroit. Crennel has elected to hold out a lot of his starters to keep them healthy for the regular season.

The Browns have a tough start to the season. They play Dallas and Pittsburgh at home, before playing at Cincinnati and at Baltimore. If the Browns start 0-2 it is going to put a lot of pressure on them to win on the road in consecutive weeks. Last year the Bengals and Ravens had less than stellar seasons. Despite the Browns 10-6 record they lost 19-14 at Cincinnati and gave up 30 points in a 33-30 win against the Ravens. That was the crossbar miracle game. That was also the only game Baltimore scored over 30 points last season.

The Browns are going to score points in 2008. The problem is that they still have questions on defense and based on the preseason it doesn’t look like a real strength of the team. Hopefully for the Browns they can get that fixed in the regular season. If they don’t they are going to need to score points in bunches to be successful.

A Look Ahead: There isn’t really anything to look ahead too as most teams will be looking to rest their starters and get ready for the opener. That’s why I gave 10 impressions instead of just 5 in an attempt to cover more teams without wasting time predicting completely meaningless final preseason games.

Next weeks newsletter will be light on recapping action from the final week and will focus on Week 1 matchups and things to look for. I look forward to reading your comments.

It’s back.  This is my second preseason letter.  I didn’t do one the opening week with just the Hall of Fame Game on the slate.  Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a Newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action. 

Standings

 AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. Buffalo (1-1)                                                            1.Washington (3-0)

2. Miami (1-1)                                                             2. NY Giants (1-1)

3. New York Jets (1-1)                                              3. Philadelphia (1-1)

4. New England (0-2)                                                4. Dallas (0-2)

 

AFC South                                                                        NFC South

1. Houston (2-0)                                                            1. Tampa Bay (2-0)           

2. Tennessee (2-0)                                                       2. Carolina (1-1)

3. Jacksonville (1-1)                                                     3. New Orleans (1-1)

4. Indianapolis (1-2)                                                     4. Atlanta (0-2)

 

AFC North                                                                        NFC North

1.Baltimore (1-1)                                                           1.Detroit (2-0)           

2.Cincinnati (1-1)                                                          2.Minnesota (1-1)

3.Pittsburgh (1-1)                                                          3.Chicago (0-2)

4.Cleveland (0-2)                                                          4.Green Bay (0-2)

 

AFC West                                                                        NFC West

1.Denver (1-1)                                                            1. Seattle (2-0)           

2. Kansas City (1-1)                                                   2. Arizona (1-1)

3. Oakland (1-1)                                                         3. San Fran (1-1)

4. San Diego (1-1)                                                     4. St Louis (1-1)

MVP of the Week:  Matt Schaub had a terrific performance this week.  He went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2 touchdown tosses while throwing 0 interceptions.  He posted a 154.9 QB rating.  Michael Turner was very productive for the Falcons.  While he carried the ball only 4 times he had 113 yards, including a 63-yard dash. Finally, Brandon Coutu had a very nice game going 5 for 5 on field goals and 2-2 on extra points.  Included in those field goals was a 48-yard and 46-yard kick.  But Domenik Hixon had the best performance of all.  He had 2 receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown in the first quarter as the NY Giants built a 23-3 first quarter lead.  That effort propelled them to a 37-34 victory. 

Loser of the Week:  I would go with the New England defense, the Cleveland Browns, and the Green Bay Packers.  The Patriots rebuilt their secondary and linebackers this off-season.  It looked woefully inadequate Sunday Night.  Brain Griese went 8-8 on the first drive on a 17-play drive that consumed 9:38 seconds.  The Patriots trailed 17-3 at the half and 27-3 after three quarters, before losing 27-10.  Granted Tom Brady didn’t play which limited the offense, but I was not impressed with the Patriots defense against what I consider a pretty average offense.  It is probably nothing to worry about at this stage, but that needs to get fixed up.  

Then there were the Browns.  This is a classic example of how preseason scores can be misleading.  If you looked at the final you see a 37-34 game.  It looks like both teams getting in good work in a high scoring game.  Hidden in that score is that the NY Giants first team destroyed the Browns first team to the tune of a 30-3 lead in the early part of the second quarter.  That was an embarrassing game by the first string and is something they will need to address next week when they take on the Detroit Lions. 

Green Bay I will discuss later in my Impressions of the Week.

Game of the Week: I’m going to go with another preseason overtime game.  The Seahawks and Bears played to a 26-26 tie, before the Hawks broke the tie with a field goal in overtime.  The Seahawks were down 10 points entering the 4th quarter before they ran off 17 points.  Kellen Davis tied the game with 2:50 left in the 4th quarter.  Brandon Coutu nailed a 36-yard field goal early in the overtime to give the Hawks the win.  Honorable mention to the Cleveland Browns and NY Giants. 

The Bay of Pigs:  Has to be that 7-6 gem the Chargers and the Rams put up in St Louis.  The Chargers kicked a pair of first quarter field goals and the Rams scored the lone touchdown in the third quarter.  

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  Still waiting for the regular season on this. 

Hospital Visit:  Chad Johnson suffered a sprained shoulder.  He has already been ruled out for next week’s game and Marvin Lewis said he could be questionable for the season opener. 

Tavaris Jackson hurt his knee in the Viking’s win.  The Vikings quarterback strained his MCL.  He is expected to miss next week, but should be okay for the season opener. 

Tom Brady didn’t even travel to Tampa Bay, because of an undisclosed injury.  It is believed that he has a sore foot.  It is on the same foot that bothered him in the Super Bowl, but a different injury.  It is uncertain whether he will play in the rest of the preseason.

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) The New York Bretts – Brett Favre had about as good of a debut as one could hope for.  He went 5 for 6 for for 48 yards and 1 touchdown pass in 2 drives.   It was arguably his best preseason game since 2000 as he posted a 139.6 QB rating.  

No, he does not yet have complete command of the offense.  The Jets had about 40 plays for him to use in that game.  Two drives aren’t enough to tell if he is ready to run the offense for 60 minutes.  He needs to show he understands the offense enough to run a 2-minute no huddle offense and that his stamina is good enough to play well deep into the 4th quarter.  I expect those things to come, but you can’t learn about that in 6 pass attempts and 2 series.

However, there were two things that were clear, 1) The team and the New York Jets fan base have been electrified by this signing.  There was a very nice buzz in the air surrounding the game.  2) Favre still looks extremely sharp.  He had a 19-yard pass to Cotchery that was a beautiful touch pass down the field.  He also looked of the safety perfectly on the Keller touchdown.  About his only bad play was a sack he took on the first drive, which is still better than throwing a pick in that spot. 

It’s going to take several games for Favre to get on the same page with his teammates.  There are going to be times where it looks great and times where it doesn’t.  His first game keeps the optimism at a very high level and gives the Jets something to build on.  Excellent first start for Favre.

2) The Rams need Steven Jackson – The Rams need to get Steven Jackson’s contract figured out fast.  In 2 preseason games the Rams have looked horrific on offense.  They scored just 7 points in their 7-6 win against San Diego.  They lost 34-13 in their opener to Tennessee.

Couple things in the Rams defense.  Jackson would not have played 4 quarters in those games.  While they only had 76 yards against the Titans on the ground they did record 183 rushing yards against the Chargers.  This isn’t so much an opinion I have because the offense has struggled in preseason.  I feel they need him, because of what he has meant to their offense the last 2 regular seasons. 

Jackson got hurt in Week 3 last season.  He came back in Week 8.  The result was a 0-4 record in which the Rams scored 7 points against the Cowboys, 3 points against the Ravens, and 6 points against the Seahawks.  The only game the offense looked good in was the 34-31 loss to Arizona.

Steven Jackson is a beast.  In 2006 he recorded 2,334 yards from scrimmage, which ranks 5th in NFL history.  It was only 95 yards shy of Marshall Faulk’s 1999 NFL record.  He also scored 16 touchdowns that season.  Last year despite missing those 4 starts he still recorded 1,002 yards rushing and scored 5 touchdowns.  He scored a touchdown in 6 of the 9 games after he came back from injury.

This holdout is looking a lot like Larry Johnson last season.  It looks like it could drag into the eve of the regular season.  It will take him a couple games to warm up.  Holdouts of this nature can be a precursor to injuries. 

The Rams can’t afford that.  On paper they don’t appear particularly strong even with Jackson in the lineup.  While Holt and Bulger can move the ball through the air they won’t be nearly as effective if defenses don’t have Steven Jackson to contend with.  This offense needs a healthy Steven Jackson this season.  The Rams need to get him into camp ASAP to put him in the best possible position to do that.

3) Pack took a big step back – Lost in the Aaron Rodgers vs. Brett Favre story is that both players play with 50 other players.  The story out of this game has been that Aaron Rodgers took a step back.  Aaron Rodgers is not the only story on this team.  In terms of preseason losses this is about as bad as it gets and Rodgers was not the only concern. 

The Brown’s first team at least got thumped by the defending champions.  The Patriots lost to a playoff team without Brady.  Granted the Packers didn’t have some key players, mainly Grant and Jennings, but San Fran is a bad football team.  

The first problem is the offense did nothing to move the ball.  The Packers gained 46 yards of total offense in the first half.  Their two scoring drives for field goals featured a 4-play drive for -6 yards.  The other drive was 4 plays for 2 yards.  Rodgers was sacked 4 times.  He had several passes that were dropped, including a sure touchdown grab by Donald Lee.  The Packers managed only 101 yards rushing against a team that gave up 248 yards rushing to Oakland just a week ago.   They also lost 3 fumbles.

Then there was the defense.  The Packers allowed the 49er offense to go 15 plays for 87 yards and take off 9:15 of game clock in the second quarter.  They allowed O’Sullivan to go 8 for 17 for 154 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  The touchdown pass to Morgan was for 59 yards.

I’m not one to hit the panic button because of a bad preseason game.  Al Harris and Charles Woodson weren’t playing on that 87-yard drive.  Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings weren’t on the field.  Those are big factors.

Again, what I didn’t like is that I don’t think San Fran is a very good football team.  They ranked 32 in scoring, 32 in offensive yards, and 32nd in first downs in 2007.  They scored 6 points against the Raiders last week.  Their defense ranked 20th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed last year.  This is a defense that should be scored on.  It is not a team that should have beat the Packers 34-6. 

The Packers have a big test in front of them.  Not only Rodgers, but the entire team is going to receive more scrutiny because of the Favre situation than possibly any team in the history of the NFL.  They played okay in a 20-17 loss to Cincy.  Then they took a terrible step back to a mediocre football team.  They need to play a good game and establish a rhythm against Denver.  They need to get Jennings and Grant on the field to get reps with Rodgers.

Denver is historically as tough of a venue as any in the NFL.  It will be good to see how they handle that atmosphere.  It’s difficult to know what to take out of Saturday’s game, but hopefully for the Packers it was just a case of a flat preseason performance.

4) Houston Texans impressing in preseason – Houston and Detroit are probably the most impressive non-postseason team in this preseason.  Seeing Matt Millen isn’t running the Texans they get the advantage.  They played very well at the Super Dome on Saturday.  Schaub went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 picks.  Rookie Steve Slaton played well with 13 carries for 57 yards and a rushing touchdown.  The Texans won 31-27.  The game before that they beat Denver 19-16.  Schaub was 4 for 5 for 29 yards. 

The Texans had a good season last year.  Despite losing Schaub for 5 starts, Andre Johnson for 7 starts, and Ahman Green for 11 starts they managed to go 7-3 outside of the division and 8-8 overall.  They won 3 of their last 4 games.  It was their 1-5 record in the division that killed them and that lone win came against a resting Jaguars team on the final day of the season.

The Colts still should be strong and the Jaguars look to be improved from a year ago.  The Titans are always going to play people tough.  I would pick the Texans to make the playoffs out of the AFC North, West, and possibly the East.  The South is going to make for tough wins in the division again in 2008.  If the Texans are going to win Schaub and Johnson must stay healthy and if Green doesn’t stay healthy Steve Slaton or Chris Brown must emerge.   Green strained his groin on the first carry of the Bronco game and did not play against the Saints.  That is not a good sign for a guy that has missed 19 games since 2005. 

This is a young team that needs to continue to improve and they look to be doing just that.  While it will be tough to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC South the Texans are a team that I believe has a chance to compete for a final wild card spot with Buffalo, Denver, NY Jets, if they stay healthy this year.   So far they are doing the right things in preseason.

5) Chicago Bears are really struggling – I’m not sure what to expect out of the Bears in terms of wins and losses, but one thing that I expect is that this will be arguably the worst offense in the NFL this season. 

The first problem is a bad quarterback and worse quarterback.  The Bears are trying to flip a coin to decide which puts the team in the best position to not completely stink up the field.  Grossman has a 66.9 QB rating in two preseason games.  He played fairly well against Kansas City and stunk against Seattle.  Orton has a 76.4 rating and has yet to throw a touchdown pass or interception.  Neither has established himself as the front-runner.   Yet the Bears named Orton the starting quarterback for the season opener.  Hopefully he has shown more in practice than he did in the games. 

The offensive line was supposed to be in rebuilding mode behind the drafting of Chris Williams.  Fred Miller and Rueben Brown were both let go to help this line get younger.  Williams was an injury concern entering the draft, because of neck and back issues.  Chris Williams now has a herniated disc and could miss most of or all of the NFL season.  Even if he does comeback he will be way behind the curve and his rookie season is going to be a lost season at best.

Then there are the skill positions.  Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Rashied Davis, Devon Hester, and Mark Bradley are expected to be the Bears receivers this season.  Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson will get the majority of the carries.  That isn’t exactly a list of skill position players that keep defensive coordinators up late at night.  Hester is a terror on special teams, but the jury is still out when it comes to wide receiver.  2nd year tight end Greg Olson is probably their most scary skill position player.  

What that translates into is 3 points scored in the first half against the Chiefs in which the offense went 8 plays for 19 yards and 5 points against the Seahawks.   Seeing the offense doesn’t score a safety that is 3 more first half points for the offense.  That drive went 10 plays for 51 yards.

There are some teams where a problem can be identified at one position.  With the Jags last year it was wide receiver.  The Cowboys had secondary issues last season.  With the Bears the entire offense is a mess.  The skill position players can’t do anything because the offensive line can’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running game.  The quarterback can’t do anything, because the line doesn’t give him time, the receivers aren’t very solid, and the running game doesn’t set him up with manageable plays.  Even if the line could block better it isn’t going to look good with the players it is protecting.  It’s a vicious cycle. 

In 2005 and 2006 the only problem on this team was quarterback.  In 2005 the Bears were able to go 11-5 with an offense that ranked 26th in points scored and 29th in yards gained.  That defense finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed.  I think the Bears don’t have as good of a defensive unit as they did in 2005 and they have additional problems on the line and at running back.

I’m very interested to see how this offense does in 2008 and what that translates to in terms of their record.  Even though that division is in a state of flux with Detroit looking to get over the hump, Green Bay replacing a legend, and Minnesota emerging it is going to be tough for the Bears to compete in that division with their offensive woes.  

A Look Ahead:  While it may have lost some significance in recent years, the third week of the preseason is always the most important game of the preseason.   It’s when we usually see the starters play for an entire half.  The 2007 playoff teams were 9-3 in the 3rd week of the preseason last year.  The Cowboys lost to the Texans, the Giants lost to the Jets, and the Packers lost to the Jaguars.   Both the Jags and Packers made the playoffs.  Staying healthy is always the first goal of preseason.   In the case of Tom Brady the Patriots aren’t going to try to win the 3rd preseason game at the expense of their franchise.  Still with starters expected to go into the 3rd quarter I’m going to look at 5 key games, not so much in terms of who will win the game, but the matchups I’m looking for in these games.   

1) Philadelphia Eagles at New England:  These are the two teams I predicted to lose in the Conference Championship.  I don’t really care what New England’s offense looks like unless Tom Brady is going to miss time to start the season.  With the KGB type culture up in Foxboro who knows how bad that foot is right now.  My guess is Brady will be ready to play in the opener.  Tampa Bay abused New England’s defense on the opening drive.  I want to see New England’s rebuilt defense play with some pride.  I want to see how they handle a speedy back like Westbrook.  I don’t think Brady is going to play and that should allow the Eagles to win this game.  Winner:  Philadelphia 

2) Jacksonville at Tampa Bay – This is a matchup between two playoff teams from a year ago.  The Bucs were very impressive in their opening drive against the Patriots opening the game with a drive that lasted over 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown.  I want to see how Garcia looks in his first action of the preseason.  I want to see how the Bucs run defense stops one of the best ground attacks in the NFL.  For Jacksonville, I want to see how they put pressure on Garcia, a quarterback that doesn’t make many mistakes but did have 3 of his 4 interceptions in 2007 against Jacksonville.  I like how Tampa Bay is playing in the preseason and the Jags still won’t have their receivers.  I look for the Bucs in a close one.  Winner:  Tampa Bay

3) New York Giants at New York Jets:  The Giants defensive line looked very good against Cleveland.  They knocked Derek Anderson out of the game.  Here is what I’m looking for in this contest.  How does the rebuilt line of the NY Jets handle one of the premier defensive lines in the NFL?  How does Brett Favre look against the defense that kept his Packers out of the Super Bowl in 2007?  Can the Jets run the ball against the Giants to give #4 a chance with play action passing and relieve the pass rush?  Will Brett be forced into sacks and interceptions trying to dissect this defense on his own?  I don’t expect a lot in Brett’s second preseason game.  I look for him to play above average, but in order to beat the NY Giants first team he will have to be exceptional.  I look for the Giants to win the game.  Winner: NY Giants

4) Pittsburgh at Minnesota:  This one is very simple too.  I want to see how the Steelers ground game does against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  I want to see how Jared Allen does against a team that allowed a ton of sacks in 2007.  Finally, I want to see how Ward, Holmes, and Miller do against a secondary that gave up the most passing yards in the NFL a year ago.  On the Vikings offense I want to see how Peterson and Taylor do against a tough defense.  I want to see how the Vikings offense looks without Jackson who is questionable for the opener.  I like the Steelers to win this game, but by a fairly low score.  Winner: Pittsburgh

5) Seattle at San Diego:  I don’t expect Tomlinson to play too much, but I want to see how Phillip Rivers and the passing game handle the Seattle pass rush.  I want to see how the Seattle offense runs against a Chargers team that was inconsistent against the run last season.  I want to see how the Seahawks thin receiver core does in terms of getting open for Hasselbeck.  How many coverage sacks is he going to take?  It’s tough to say who will win this game, because of Tomlinson’s traditionally light workouts, but I think San Diego will win this contest behind their vicious defense.  Winner: San Diego

That’s all for this week.  Next weeks newsletter will be full of recaps from Week 3 of the preseason and will be light on the prediction side as teams rest most of their key players the final week of preseason.  I look forward to reading your comments.  

NFL Playoff Predictions

I have already released my eight NFL Division Previews. If you missed any of them the links are as follows:

a) AFC East

b) NFC East

c) AFC South

d) NFC South

e) AFC North

f) NFC North

g) AFC West

h) NFC West

These are the teams I had making the 2008 NFL Playoffs:

AFC Playoff Teams

1) Jacksonville Jaguars 13-3

2) New England Patriots 13-3

3) San Diego Chargers 12-4

4) Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5

5) Indianapolis Colts 12-4

6) Cleveland Browns 10-6

NFC Playoff Teams

1) Dallas Cowboys 12-4

2) Minnesota Vikings 11-5

3) New Orleans Saints 10-6

4) Arizona Cardinals 9-7

5) Philadelphia Eagles 10-6

6) New York Giants 9-7

Since I have done those predictions there have been a few major transactions. First, the Saints acquired Jeremy Shockey, which helps bolster my confidence in the New Orleans pick. Second, Jason Taylor became a Redskin. While he does make the defense better, I don’t expect a big improvement from my 7-9 prediction, due to the questions I have on offense. The final move is Brett Favre being reinstated by the Packers.

The bottom line is that I can’t deal in hypotheticals. Favre is with the Packers right now and indications are that the Packers will not hold an “open competition.” It is clear that the Packers don’t want him there and that Favre wants to leave. I can’t see Favre opening the season there. The question is how long does it take to make the move? There could be a trade today to the Bucs or Jets or the Packers could allow this mess to spill into the season. It is anyone’s guess where this goes at this point. Thompson and Farve’s egos could allow this to drag out for a long time.

Either way it is going to set the Packers back in terms of their locker room, unless Rodgers plays at a MVP level from day one. That is an incredibly tough task for a player who has thrown 59 career passes. My opinion is that Favre could make a new team a Super Bowl contender, but until we see where he lands and how he gels with that new team it would be crazy to predict that when there are a lot of contending teams that have a lot more certainty.

Here is how I see the playoffs going based on where the 32 teams in the NFL stand at this moment.

AFC Wildcard Round

 

Cleveland Browns (10-6) at San Diego Chargers (12-4) – This one I would expect to be a lopsided. The Browns have a great offense, but Anderson didn’t always take care of the ball in 2007. While the Browns will be improved at stopping the run with Williams and Rodgers on the defensive line they won’t be good enough to stop LT. I think the big play defense of the Chargers and a healthy LT put up a bunch of points on the Browns who will be making their first playoff appearance since 1994.

Score: San Diego Chargers 35 – Cleveland Browns 17

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – This would be a very interesting matchups. It was a classic back in the 2005 playoffs. Both quarterbacks have won Super Bowls. The Steelers were the champions in 2005. The Colts brought home the trophy in 2006. My concern about picking the Colts is that they usually stop playing their best football once the calendar turns to January. The Steelers having this game at home will be a huge advantage, although they lost at home playoff game last year to the Jags. The Colts actually seem to do worse in the playoff at home in recent years having lost there in the divisional round in both 2005 and 2007. The key is going to be which team can establish the running game and which quarterback will make the fewest mistakes. I would expect a very tough game going down to the wire with the Colts winning it at the end.

Score: Indianapolis Colts 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

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NFC Wildcard Round

New York Giants (9-7) at New Orleans Saints (10-6) – The NY Giants will begin their title defense in the Big Easy. The Saints will look to win their first playoff game since they made the run to the NFC Championship Game in 2006. I think the NY Giants will try to do the same things they did last postseason. They will try to run the ball, put pressure on the quarterback, and avoid the big turnover. I think the difference will be that the Saints have just enough firepower on offense to make up for the deficiencies they have on defense. The Giants lost a lot of defenders this offseason, most notably future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan. Shockey gets his revenge against the Giants as the Saints win a close one.

Score: New Orleans Saints 27 – New York Giants 21

 

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – I would also expect this to be a lopsided game. The Cardinals will be making their first playoff appearance since Jake Plummer led the Cardinals to the Divisional Round back in 1998. While they are able to pass the ball the Eagles set up well to stop the pass with Samuel, Brown, and Shepherd. The Cardinals have no answer for Westbrook and McNabb will play a good game as well. Eagles win big.

Score: Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Arizona Cardinals 20

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AFC Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – If this matchup came to life what a treat this would be. The physical smash mouth style of the Jaguars collides with the high scoring air attack of the Colts. Divisional matchups in the playoffs are always intriguing. The Jaguars usually play the Colts tough and I would expect that the Jaguars could run the ball effectively against the smaller front of the Colts. The difference for the Jags is that with the addition of Harvey and Graves they will be able to put enough extra pressure on Manning to win a close game in Jacksonville.

Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 21

San Diego Chargers (12-4) at New England Patriots (13-3) – We’ve seen this matchup each of the last two years. Is this the year the Chargers can finally beat New England in the playoffs? I think the Chargers would have had a great chance to beat the Patriots last year had LT, Gates, and Rivers all been healthy. They put enough pressure on Brady to disrupt the passing game, but just weren’t able to convert in the redzone on offense. Settling for four field goals in a playoff game is a recipe for disaster. The Patriots are rebuilding their defense this season. Patriot fans will say that Brady never loses home playoff games, but then again he never lost Super Bowls until last season. Still, I think the Patriots will find a way to do what they do best, win a close playoff game in the 4th quarter.

Score: New England Patriots 28 – San Diego Chargers 21

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NFC Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – The Dallas Cowboys will have waited a year to atone for their home playoff loss to the New York Giants in 2007. This will be a good opponent for the Cowboys. A defense that Romo can look to put up some numbers against and build some confidence. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. The Cowboys don’t have a perfect defense, but they will be able to make enough plays with their solid pass rush to stop Brees and the Saints. I look for the Cowboys to win a high scoring game.

Score: Dallas Cowboys 42 – New Orleans Saints 28

 

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5) – This is where Minnesota will regret having Jackson. While he is still developing he just doesn’t make enough plays to win playoff games when the defenses get better and the yards get tougher to come by. The Eagles have more than enough secondary help to put eight in the box and concentrate against Peterson and Taylor. While Westbrook will find rushing yards hard to come by, he still could score a couple big plays in the passing games. Eagles in a low scoring affair.

 

Score: Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Minnesota Vikings 10

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AFC Championship

New England Patriots (13-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – Jacksonville is the team I am picking to come out of the AFC. People still think of Jacksonville as this low scoring team that can’t put up enough points against the big offenses in the AFC. Jacksonville scored 411 points which ranked 6th in the NFL. That was despite Garrard missing 4 games with an injury. They finished the season winning 6 of their last 8 games and scored 32 points per game. Jones-Drew and Taylor are arguably the best running duo in the NFL not in Minnesota and Garrard really came on in the second half of the season.

The Patriots averaged 32.3 in their last 8 games, which compares favorably to the Jaguars. While people remember the 2007 Patriots as this 40.0-point per game juggernaut, the Patriots offense did not play at that level on a consistent basis after the first 8 games. The Jaguars had enough offensive talent to compete with the Patriots in the playoffs last year. The biggest difference was that the Jaguars didn’t have enough receiver speed to exploit the Patriot secondary and they didn’t have enough pass rushers to get to Brady. They tried to address that by adding Porter and Williamson. Porter is expected to miss training camp, but should be ready for the opener. Harvey and Groves will give the Jaguars players that can get to the quarterback.

The Jaguars have been knocking at the door the last few seasons. Last season was big in that they won a playoff game and should be more comfortable and experienced come playoff time. Outside the Patriots the Jaguars played as well as anyone the second half of the season last year. I believe that carries over to this season. This is the year the Jags represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – New England Patriots 27

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NFC Championship

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – I really didn’t know what direction to go in the NFC. It seems like the NFC is up for grabs every year. No one would have predicted the NY Giants to win the Super Bowl in preseason and the ones that did should have abandoned the bandwagon after Week 2. Yet they not only made the playoffs, but also won 3 road playoff games and a neutral Super Bowl to capture the Lombardi Trophy.

There are a number of ways you could go with this. You could pick the Vikings to win it behind a 2,000-yard season by Peterson. You could pick the Saints to rebound with a more consistent offensive approach and a better defense that features Vilma, Ellis, ####, and McCray. You could go with the NY Giants to defend their c