The Patriots have completed the first 16-0 season in the history of the National Football League and have rested on their bye week.  Their run to 19-0 begins this weekend.  Therefore it is time to look at handicapping their chances of bringing home the Lombardi Trophy. 
 
I am a true believer in the theory that history repeats itself.  If you want to see which 2007 teams have a realistic shot of winning the Super Bowl look at what the past champions have done and you can start dismissing unworthy teams pretty quickly. 
 
People tend to make things a lot more complicated than it really needs to be.  You have some people that keep preaching that defense and running the football wins championships.  Look at the 1962 Packers, 72 Dolphins, 74 Steelers, 85 Bears, 93 Cowboys, and 00 Ravens.  Others wills say that you need a Hall of Fame Quarterback like Brady, Elway, Favre, Manning, Montana, or Unitas.   Others prefer the Hall of Fame Running Back like Allen, Brown, Harris, Payton, or Smith. 
 
The fact is that teams have found all kinds of different ways to bring home The Lombardi Trophy since the 1966 season.  Some have had great offense.  Some have had great defense.  Some have won as the 1st seed and prohibited favorite.  The 05 Steelers won as the 6th seed.  We have had a 17-0 team and a 15-5 team win it all.  We have had a team that featured two 1,000-yard running backs.  We have had the Greatest Show on Turf.  While teams have all found different ways to win there is one formula for winning that works year in and year out.  It is very simple and very basic.  You need both a Top 10 Scoring Offense and a Top 10 Scoring Defense.  
 
Seems pretty simple, right.  You can’t be All World on one side of the ball and incompetent on the other side of the ball.  You have to be able to score and stop the other team from scoring at a very high level.  But that is the formula.  These are the only teams since the 1970 merger that have won a Super Bowl without having both their offense and defense ranked in the top 10 of the NFL:
 
Year                 Team                Offensive Scoring Rank            Defensive Scoring Rank
1976                Raiders             4th of 28 teams                                  12th of 28 teams
1982*              Redskins          12th of 28 teams                                1st of 28 teams
1983                Raiders             3rd of 28 teams                                  13th of  28 teams
1990                Giants               15th of 28 teams                                1st of 28 teams
2000                Ravens             14th of 31 teams                                1st of  31 teams
2002                Buccaneers     18th of  32 teams                              1st of  32 teams
2003                Patriots             12th of  32 teams                              1st of 32 teams
2006                Colts                  2nd of 32 teams                               23rd of 32 teams
 
*strike shortened season

 
There you have it.  Only 8 times since the 1970 merger has a team won a Super Bowl when one of its units was ranked outside of the top 10 in both points scored and points allowed.   That is about 20% of the time.  One of those years was the strike-shortened season of 1982 where the league only played 9 games.  Furthermore, of the 8 times it has happened 5 of those times the team had the number one ranked defense in the NFL.  That is where the saying Defense Wins Championships comes from.  If you are going to be one dimensional it is much better to do so on the defensive side of the ball rather than the offensive side of the ball especially in the Live Ball Era.  Defensive Dominance is a rare commodity when compared to Offensive Ability.  Still the only teams that won a Super Bowl that were not in at least ranked in the top half of the league on their weaker side of the ball was the 1990 NY Giants, 2002 Buccaneers, and the 2006 Indianapolis Colts.
 
Now let’s look at the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs this season and how they rank in relation to the other 32 teams in the NFL:
 
Team                            Offensive Scoring Rank      Defensive Scoring Rank
 
Dallas Cowboys                     2nd                              13th     
 
Green Bay Packers                4th                              6th(t)    
 
Indianapolis Colts                  3rd                               1st       
 
Jacksonville Jaguars             6th                             10th     
 
New England Patriots            1st                               4th
 
New York Giants                     14th                             17th     
 
Pittsburgh Steelers                 9th (t)                          2nd       
 
San Diego Chargers               5th                                5th       
 
Seattle Seahawks                   9th(t)                          6th(t)    
 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers        18th                            3rd       
 
Tennessee Titans                  22nd                            8th
 
Washington Redskins         18th(t)                          11th
 
 
Interesting how that theory applies to the playoffs too.  Seven of the twelve-playoff teams have offensive and defensive units that are ranked in the top 10.  Dallas is only 3 spots from being the 8th team in that group.  Furthermore the teams that were in the top 10 in both categories went 3-1 on Wild Card Weekend as opposed to the teams that weren’t going 1-3.  Pittsburgh and Jacksonville played each other so someone had to lose. Tampa and NY Giants played each other so someone had to win. 
 
It also shows why people believe the AFC is the better conference.  5 of their 6 teams have both offenses and defenses that are ranked in the top 10 as opposed to only 1 of the 6 teams in the NFC. 
 
What this means for New England is that they may very well have the toughest road that any “All Time Great” team has ever had to get to the Super Bowl.  I’m not taking anything away from the 1985 Chicago Bears.  But here are the rankings of the teams they met in the playoffs along with 8 other dominant teams in the Super Bowl era.  By dominant I mean either an offense or defense ranked number 1 with the other unit ranked in the top 5.  Their opponents offensive rank is listed first followed by the defense. 
 
1972 Dolphins (1st, 1st):  Browns 17th & 9th, Steelers 5th & 2nd, Redskins 7th & 3rd  
 
1978 Steelers (5th, 1st):  Broncos 15th & 2nd, Oilers 14th & 16th, Cowboys 1st & 3rd
 
1985 Bears (2nd, 1st):  NY Giants 5th & 6th, Rams 15th & 4th, Patriots 10th & 6th 
 
1989 49ers (1st, 3rd): Vikings 11th & 6th, Rams 2nd & 17th, Broncos 8th & 1st
 
1991 Redskins (1st, 2nd):  Falcons 5th & 20th, Lions 9th & 11th, 2nd, & 19th
 
1996 Packers (1st, 1st):  49ers 3rd & 4th, Panthers 7th & 2nd, Patriots 2nd & 14th
 
1999 Rams (1st, 4th):  Vikings 5th & 18th, Buccaneers 27th & 3rd, Titans 7th &15th
 
Only one of those teams played two teams that had top 10 units on both side of the ball to reach the Super Bowl.  That would be the 1996 Packers.  The only other team to play two such units in the same playoff is the 1972 Dolphins.  It just doesn’t happen that often that you have that many teams in the playoffs that are that equally strong on both sides of the ball.  Usually a team is strong on one side of the ball at the expense of the other, especially in the Salary Cap Era.  If you are a number one seeded team you might have to face a dominant team in the Championship Game.  However with a first round bye and playing the opponent with the worse record in the 2nd round, usually that opening round game poses some lesser challenges.
 
This is a very strange year in regards of the distribution of talent.  The 1999 Buccaneers were able to make the NFC Championship Game with the 27th ranked offense in the NFL.  I’m sorry, but that team wouldn’t make it out of the first round in the AFC this season unless they were playing Tennessee.  To have 5 teams like that in the playoffs in one conference is beyond comprehension.  The NFC has caught up to the AFC at the middle and at the bottom.   The NFC went 32-32 against the AFC.  That is a vast improvement over 2006 and especially 2005.  However, the top teams in terms of overall balance still reside in the AFC. 
 
This is bad news for the Patriots.  Just because they had a fantastic regular season does not mean they are guaranteed to do anything in the post season.   There have been plenty of times where you have two teams that have great balance playing in the same season.  Only one can win it all and it isn’t always the team with the best record.  Here are the 5 recent instances:
 
1990 Buffalo Bills (13-3) (1st, 6th) lost to NY Giants (13-3) (15th, 1st) 20-19 in the Super Bowl
 
1992 San Francisco 49ers (14-2) (1st, 3rd) lost to Dallas Cowboys (13-3) (2nd, 5th) 30-20 NFC Conference Championship
 
1997 Green Bay Packers (13-3) (2nd, 5th) lost to Denver Broncos (12-4) (1st, 6th) 31-24   in the Super Bowl
 
2001 St Louis Rams (14-2) (1st, 7th) lost to the New England Patriots (11-5) (6th, 6th) 20-17 in the Super Bowl
 
2005 Indianapolis Colts (14-2) (2nd, 2nd) lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) (9th, 3rd) 21-18 in the AFC Divisional Round.
 
The fact is that while New England is 16-0 Indy is no slouch at 13-3.  That is only a 3 game difference.  Would we be shocked if a 10-6 team beat a 13-3 team?  How about a 14-2 team losing to an 11-5 team?  With so few games there isn’t much talent wise that separates teams who differ 3 games in the standings.  It can be the result of injuries, schedule strength, or a few lucky breaks.  While a 2001 14-2 Rams team or 2005 14-2 Colts team losing was a monumental upset, at least we had seen those teams lose before that season.  It isn’t like we haven’t seen a team with great balance lose.  We just haven’t seen an undefeated team with great balance lose because it hasn’t happened since 1972. 
 
That isn’t meant to say that what New England has done isn’t that impressive.  It is the most impressive regular season I have ever seen.  What I am saying is that doesn’t translate into guaranteed playoff success.  If these were 7 game series, there isn’t anyway a team could beat New England 4 times in a 7 game series.  However, this is one 60-minute game where the winner takes all. 
 
If I were to pick the one team that the 2007 Patriots remind me of on that list of dominant teams personnel wise it would be the 1999 Rams.  High flying spread it out offense with a very solid but not dominating defense.  Brady is better than Warner but Faulk was better than Maroney.  Moss is better than Holt or Bruce, but the overall quality of the wide receiver unit is similar.  They had very similar offensive philosophies.  The biggest difference is the Patriots are a proven veteran team while the Rams were making their first run in the playoffs. 
 
However the Rams got to play 3 teams that were in the middle to the bottom on one side of the ball.   That didn’t translate into a cakewalk.  The Super Bowl came down to a last play that failed to force OT.  The Buccaneers played the Rams tight in the NFC Championship Game.  Even the Vikings were able to put up 37 points.  The 1985 Bears, 1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, or 1996 Packers are the exceptions, not the rule.  Usually the playoff games are competitive and come down to a handful of key plays no matter how good the team has played during the season. 
 
Look at the 1940 Bears.  They lost 7-3 to Washington before meeting them in the NFL Championship Game.  They avenged that loss by winning 73-0 in the NFL Championship Game.  They carried that momentum to 1941 where they won the NFL Championship at 10-1.  In 1942 they outscored their opponents 376 points to 84 points or by 26.5 points per game.  They had a perfect regular season.  However, they lost to those Redskins 14-6 in the 1942 Championship Game.  No matter how dominant a team was in the regular season any team can beat another team on any given Sunday.
 
While the Chargers and Colts were not successful the first time around; they may have learned something from that game.  Just because they lost a close game or were even blown out doesn’t mean they won’t fare better this time around.   The weather will be different.  The refs will be different.  The players will play different.  If the Chargers or Colts play the Patriots again it could go anywhere from a rout to a closer game.   
 
In the end, what the statistics show is that New England has 6 opponents in the playoffs this season (Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Seattle and San Diego) that compare favorably ranking wise to many past Super Bowl Champions.  Furthermore, Dallas is too good to not consider a true contender because their defense is ranked 13.  Count them as number 7.    That is a lot of bullets to dodge in the playoffs.  The first of those bullets is going to be a very talented Jacksonville team that excels in a lot of areas that the Patriots are not at their strongest.
 
I understand that where past champions ranked will not determine this year’s Super Bowl Champion in as much as the individual and team match ups.  The fact that Jacksonville compares favorably ranking wise to the 1980 Raiders or 2001 Patriots is not going to determine that playoff game in as much as how the Jaguars perform against Tom Brady and Randy Moss.   No matter how balanced a team is they don’t have a unit as strong as the New England Offense.  It will take a perfect game to beat them.
 
That said, if people think the Patriots are going to steamroll the NFL playoffs like the 1985 Bears or 1989 49ers they probably better slow down.  The 2007 Patriots will have plenty of worthy teams to ruin their run at history.  Should they end the season at 19-0 it would be hard to say this isn’t the greatest team of all time.  While I think the Patriots have a very good chance of hoisting the trophy in February, I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.  I think Patriot fans better buckle up, because regardless of whether the Patriots do make it to 19-0 it is going to be a bumpy ride.  That ride starts when Jacksonville goes to Foxboro on Saturday.