It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”
‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”
On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."
We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road. Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks. Most will not live up to expectations. Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams. Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes.
We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed. None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action. It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust. Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players. It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.
Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now? Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers. Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player. If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.
Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft. I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008. I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names. I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super. However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5. 22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.
The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there. Both were selected in the 3rd round.
The position I struck out on was wide receiver. I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round. Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round. That was brutal.
Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B. By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.
5 questions
1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right. Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons. Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007. He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself. They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball. He was the player that could most help them do that. By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.
The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting. With these guys you don’t. The draft can be very unforgiving. Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss. They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver.
However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams. The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen. I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired. This was a good gamble. The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own. This may end up going down as a win-win trade.
2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer. Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong.
Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick. If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.
This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy. It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta. It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them. They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.
With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players. While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.
3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long? Absolutely. Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later. Both players were safe picks. I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft. Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling. Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling. There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round. There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10.
By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one. If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.
4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure. This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product. The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition. There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi. Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois. The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school. The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him. Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.
The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty. While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft. I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round. If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble. If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department. At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round. Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback. If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.
5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy. Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now. He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt. Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.
Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing. If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend. The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later. Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer.
Brohm fills two needs. First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them. From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense. Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history. That is not a good sign.
The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out. If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games. If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future. The value was good and the pick made sense. Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.
5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.
1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen. If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too. That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team. While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.
Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams. The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season. It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith. At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line. You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends.
The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick. It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player.
The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft. While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board. He should substantially upgrade their defensive line. Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement. Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round. He should help improve the secondary.
Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2. Jamal Charles could be a quality running back. Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft. I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.
The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota. If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road. This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.
2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year. Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007. Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10. Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down. They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State. He is a bigger receiver. Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end. Finally, they added Malcom Kelly. Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout. Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.
On the second day they added a lot of depth. Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly. Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle. They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner. This was a major need as well.
The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position. Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone. The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone. When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot.
Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round. They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense. If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.
3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft. The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long. Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007. Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick. That was good value.
In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick. He should help on their defensive line. Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.
The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks. On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs. Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round. He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.
While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year. They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle. The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL. Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line. If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard.
Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off. Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength. If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment. Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round. Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft. I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick
This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad. In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft. They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery. He may move to receiver.
They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development. Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.
5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick. I had him rated slightly higher than Jones. However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber. The pick makes sense in that respect.
Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick. That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up. Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett.
The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names. The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round. They have excellent potential to do that. Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3. With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.
5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.
1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver. I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade. Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game. White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.
Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards. They have to find a way to upgrade that position. Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan. While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver. The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California. I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind. William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy. That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.
Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft. The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys. Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson. Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks. I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be.
I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs. I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points. The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves. The Chargers have a lot of weapons. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace. Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year.
Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft. In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.
2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out. It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter. However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect. I thought this was a substantial reach. Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell. That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value.
Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.”
I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round. The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith. That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line.
I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back. While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect. This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City.
3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds. Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion. But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round?
Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized. A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner. I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point. The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.
Then they drafted Justin King on day two. He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver. All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that. With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.
4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9. I thought he would slip later into the first round. But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?
The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into. Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ. It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.
Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson. While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that. Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.
Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him. Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season. While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2.
The Bengals did okay in the later rounds. Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver. If he can stay healthy he could contribute. Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise. He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence. At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp.
While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out. If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft. I don’t think they did much after that. I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008. Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.
5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out? I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots. I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft.
I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans. But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress. He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.
I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10. Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft. Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round. I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round. I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo. All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.
Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round. Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions. Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly. When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.
The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years. Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right. They selected linebacker depth and special teams help. Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell.
Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo. I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson. You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft. That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.
That is my draft recap. Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May. Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.
I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Steve McNair on a terrific 13 year NFL career with the Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens. Steve McNair was one of those guys that you respected even though he wasn’t on your team. He always gave 110% and played through a slew of injuries. He was a great ambassador for the Mississippi area when his home state was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina. He is someone the NFL will miss not only for his on the field play, but the great contributions that he had off the field.
Steve McNair came into the NFL as a Division I-AA Walter Payton Award winner. His nickname in college was Air-McNair, a name he earned for the wide open offense he ran at Alcorn State. In his senior season he threw for 4,863 yards and rushed for 936 yards. He also threw for 44 touchdowns. That prompted the Houston Oilers to select him 3rd in the 1995 NFL Draft.
After only playing in 4 games his rookie season and 9 games his second season learning behind Chris Chandler he was put into the starting lineup in 1997. From 1997 to 2003, McNair missed only nine of the possible 112 regular-season starts. Five of those misses were due to back surgery. Steve McNair developed a reputation of being able to play through injuries that most players would not dare try. He and Brett Favre were widely considered the two toughest quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Titans finished 8-8 in both 1997 and 1998. In 1999 the pieces finally started to come together for the Titans. Steve McNair was coming into his own as a NFL quarterback. Eddie George dominated the running game. Frank Wycheck was a Pro Bowl tight end. Derrick Mason was a dangerous return man that would come into his own the following year. The defense received the piece it was missing by drafting a Florida defensive end named Jevon “The Freak” Kearse. The Titans would finish 1999 13-3, but second in the division to the 14-2 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Thankfully for the Titans, the Jags two losses were to the Titans. After beating the Bills in the Music City Miracle and the Colts in a Divisional Round contest, the Titans would beat the Jaguars for the 3rd time that season and advance to the Super Bowl. They would lose to the St Louis Rams 23-16. In the closing seconds of the game McNair hit Andre Dyson who sprinted for the endzone. He was stopped 1-yard shy of the endzone and from potentially sending the game to overtime.
The Titans would build off that win in 2000 and go 13-3 with the best record in football. They were the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but were upset in the Divisional Round by the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens. After finishing 7-9 in 2001 they would bounce back to go 11-5 in 2002 and advance to the AFC Championship Game, where they would lose to the Oakland Raiders. In 2003 they finished 12-4 and Steve McNair shared his first and only MVP award with Peyton Manning. The Titans would win their first round game against Baltimore, but fell to eventual champion New England.
By 2004 the salary cap had started to catch up with the Titans. Forced to cut many of their high priced veteran starters the Titans crashed to 5-11 in 2004 and 4-12 in 2005. McNair started only 8 games in 2004 and 14 in 2005. By then the Titans wanted to move on and draft Vince Young. What followed was a messy parting of the ways, in which McNair was banned from the team facilities and had to sue the Titans. Eventually McNair won his lawsuit and the Titans and Ravens worked out a trade to send McNair to Baltimore.
In 2006 McNair led the Ravens to a 13-3 record and was again back in the playoffs. However, after earning a first round bye the Ravens would fall to the eventual champion Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round 15-6. Of McNair’s 5 playoff losses, 4 were to the eventual Super Bowl Champion and the other was to the 2002 Oakland Raiders, who were the runner up that season.
In 2007 McNair was not right the entire season. Unable to stay healthy he only appeared in 6 games. That was the primary factor that led to the announcement of his retirement. He finished his NFL Career 31,304 yards passing, 174 touchdowns to 119 interceptions and a career QB rating of 82.8. He also carried for 3,590 yards and 37 touchdowns, which are top 5 career numbers for a quarterback.
Now that Steve McNair has retired the question is going to come up as to whether or not he had a Hall of Fame career. While I think he was a very good quarterback that enjoyed a fine NFL career and should have absolutely no regrets, I don’t think he played at a high enough level to warrant induction into Canton. The reasons are as follows:
1) Lack of big regular season numbers – Supporters will look at his 20th career ranking in completions, 23rd in attempts, 28th in passing yards, 43rd in career touchdowns, and his 27th career quarterback rating and conclude that he was a Hall of Famer. You have to go deeper than that. First, he played his entire career in the pass friendly era of the late 1990s and 2000s. His numbers are comparable to Hall of Famers that played the majority or their entire career in the Dead Ball Era. Second, he finished in the top 10 in completions, attempts, and passing yards only twice. He was in the top 10 in passing touchdowns only 3 times.
People will point to his rushing numbers. That is one of the difficulties in evaluating quarterbacks. Some people value those rushing numbers more than others. My belief is that a quarterback’s primary job is to pass the ball and those are the numbers a quarterback should ultimately be judged upon. Until a rushing quarterback carries a team to multiple rings and redefines the quarterback position I am sticking to that theory. While the Titans won a lot of games in his tenure, he never accumulated the passing numbers that I believe are necessary for Hall of Fame induction.
2) Lack of Postseason Success in relation to the Regular Season Numbers – McNair went 5-5 in the postseason and did get his team to the Super Bowl once. While he did not play great in that game he did play well enough to have his team in that game until the last play. People will compare his career numbers to Troy Aikman and see that McNair outperformed him over the course of his career. The problem is that Aikman led the Cowboys to 3 Super Bowl rings in a 4 year period. Had Aikman appeared in one Super Bowl and lost, he wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame either. In my opinion, Steve McNair didn’t experience enough success in the postseason to make up for his low regular season numbers to make the Hall of Fame.
3) He didn’t have a sustained period as the best quarterback in the game – Early in his career he didn’t measure up to Troy Aikman, John Elway, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, or Steve Young. He didn’t measure up to Tom Brady, Brett Favre, or Peyton Manning later in his career. Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon both had points where they were better quarterbacks. Both also won MVP awards. Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb were better at points in their careers. The result is that while he did win the MVP in 2003, that 4 year stretch from 2000 to 2003 is the only time he was considered an upper echelon quarterback. He was a 3 time Pro Bowler in 2000, 2003, and 2005; meaning he never put together consecutive Pro Bowls. He was never a NFL All-Pro. He never had a season that left fans in awe like Marino in 1984, Farve in 1996, Warner in 1999, Culpepper in 2004, Manning in 2004, and Brady in 2007.
I believe the Hall of Fame is more about how long you were an elite quarterback than what kind of career numbers you were able to accumulate. I don’t think that Vinny Testaverde is worthy of Canton induction and he ranks in the top 6 in passing yards, touchdowns, attempts, and completions. I would definitely put McNair ahead of Vinny, because of the MVP award, rushing production, and the fact that McNair led his team to a Super Bowl appearance. I just wouldn’t put him in the Hall of Fame.
Again, congratulations to Steve McNair for a wonderful career. While I don’t believe it was a Hall of Fame career, that in no way should diminish his career accomplishments. He was an extremely tough player and played through injuries that a lot of guys would not have been able to. He gave the fans a lot of great moments over the years and always conducted himself with the utmost class. He was a great ambassador to the NFL both on and off the field. Most importantly, he was respected through out the NFL. If the league had more Steve McNairs it would be a better league for it.
I would like to take the opportunity to thank PacMan Jones for giving me something truly important to write about this week. It’s a slow week in the NFL. After doing my weekly NFL Report I didn’t know what to write about. The Patriots attempting to become the first 18-0 team and the third team to win 18 games in a season which would tie the 1984 49ers and 1985 Bears didn’t seem to be a big enough story. Brett Favre trying to lead the Packers to their 3rd Super Bowl appearance in his legendary career wasn’t a compelling topic. A possible matchup between the two teams that traded for Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers if the two can do the unthinkable and upset the Pats and Pack. No good. Wait, I got it. Pacman under su####ion for allegedly hitting someone in a strip club? Strike those above stories. This is news.
I could hardly believe what I was reading. PacMan hitting someone I could believe, but only with one of those legendary vicious hits that he is known for on the field. At a strip club? I got to be honest with you; I didn’t see that one coming. This isn’t the same PacMan I’m used to hearing about.
I think there are a lot of people to blame for this. I blame society for starters. Why do we have to have rules against hitting women at strip clubs? Why are they allowed to take our money? Our bracelets? Especially without repercussions. Next thing you know they will take away our pride. We should be able to go to a strip club where we do not have to give up money against our free will. PacMan is fighting for our rights to make the strip club an even more enjoyable place than it already is, lol. This is how we repay him? A potential warrant? More Jail Time in his Las Vegas case? Talk of a longer suspension? Come on, get real.
Speaking of suspensions, I also blame Roger Goodell for this problem. Prior to suspending PacMan Jones if we didn’t want to join Jones in his crusade to make the strip club a better place we could at least plan our trips around him. I could go to an Atlanta or Vegas strip club during Tennessee Titan games and know that Adam Jones would have prior commitments. I could plan my strip club excursions without fear of the strippers being hit or security being shot. But Roger Goodell took that away from me last year. Now PacMan can show up to the Body Tap Strip Club on a Thursday and all hell breaks lose. What’s next? At this rate I’m going to be scared to enjoy the Monday afternoon buffet.
The fact is that we all make jokes about PacMan Jones. He has become the laughing stock of the league and the Poster Boy for the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy. He isn’t the first Poster Boy and he certainly won’t be the last. Everyone has a legacy. PacMan’s is the pole and the fight for a better and cheaper / free lap dance.
Everyone knows the deal at a strip club. You mix 1) Alcohol, 2) Money, 3) Fame, and 4) Naked People and you have a recipe for these sorts of problems. Sadly professional athletes have become the target for these types of incidents. Many rookies and younger players have to learn how to deal with their fame and the scrutiny that comes with it. There are people that create incidents like this for their own financial gain. It sounds like Randy Moss may be a victim of that type of jealousy.
Maturity can come in different forms and different levels. It can be learning a valuable lesson that you can’t take your famous actress girlfriend to Mexico the week before a NFL Playoff Game and not expect a major distraction. That’s a small lesson. It can be learning that you can’t stay in the league as a drunk or addict. You can’t take performance enhancing drugs. Or most recently that you can’t operate your own dog fighting ring and lie to federal authorities about said involvement.
Every player goes through a learning curve in their career. For some it is a small revelation, a valuable lesson learned, or a small fine or suspension. For some it’s a life changing experience. For others it is 18 months in jail.
We can’t expect athletes to not make mistakes. Money, talent, and fame do not make people immune from making poor decisions. Everyone has made mistakes or had lapses in judgment that we regret. Most times we didn’t lose our lively hood over it and neither should they. This is not the All Saints League. What we can expect is that they learn from their mistakes. This brings us back to PacMan.
The problem with PacMan is not that he will potentially be arrested for his conduct on January 3rd, 2008. That could happen to anyone. The problem is that he put himself in that position after the Las Vegas incident. He just pleaded no contest to a disorderly conduct charge related to a strip club shooting in Las Vegas that left one man paralyzed. That case has brought problems for the NFL as they and the Tennessee Titans have been named in that suit. Yet less than a month later he is back in the news for the exact same incident.
Jones has been arrested six times since being drafted sixth overall in 2005. He’s been questioned about incidents countless other times. I’m not certain that he did anything wrong on January 3rd, 2008. People have been known to make things up. That could be the case here. However, I do see the problem as two fold, 1) When this many people that are unrelated to one another accuse someone of the same stupid behavior it would seem highly unlikely that there is a world wide conspiracy to ruin PacMan, and 2) He has to know that that he can put a pole in basement and pay the strippers to come to him. You can’t keep going into public and putting yourself in this position for stuff like this to happen on a reoccurring basis, especially when you are serving a year long suspension by your employer. It shows a complete disregard for authority or common sense.
PacMan is guilty of at least one thing. Poor Judgment. Given the circumstances and nature of his situation the last place he needed to be on a Thursday Night was the Body Tap Strip Club. Instead he has found potential legal problems and additional embarrassment. Commissioner Goodell should come down hard on him and suspend him for another season. Tell him the next time there is a negative story about him at a strip club he is banned for life. Commissioner Goodell has no business telling his players to not get a lap dance from a lady in a police uniform so long as his players aren’t talking to the real police afterwards. There is no place in the NFL for this repetitive mindlessness and thankfully the Commissioner feels strongly about resolving this issue.
Now there are exactly 12 teams left in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. The Redskins and Titans clinched the final 2 playoff spots. Miami is officially on the clock. If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game. It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter. Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it. I hereby present to you a recap of the final week in the National Football League season.
Standings
AFC East NFC East 1.New England (16-0)**** 1.Dallas (13-3)**** 2.Buffalo (7-9) 2.NY Giants (10-6)* 3.NY Jets (4-12) 3.Washington (9-7)* 4. Miami (1-15) 4.Philadelphia (8-8) AFC South NFC South 1.Indianapolis (13-3)*** 1. Tampa Bay (9-7)** 2. Jacksonville (11-5)* 2. Carolina (7-9) 3. Tennessee (10-6)* 3. New Orleans (7-9) 4. Houston (8-8) 4. Atlanta (4-12)
AFC North NFC North 1.Pittsburgh (11-5)** 1.Green Bay (13-3)*** 2.Cleveland (10-6) 2. Minnesota (8-8) 3.Cincinnati (7-9) 3. Detroit (7-9) 4.Baltimore (5-11) 4.Chicago (7-9)
AFC West NFC West 1. San Diego (11-5)** 1. Seattle (10-6)** 2. Denver (7-9) 2.Arizona (8-8) 3. Kansas City (4-12) 3. San Francisco (5-11) 4. Oakland (4-12) 4. St Louis (3-13)
MVP of the Week: As is usually the case, it is hard to not go with Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Brady had 2 touchdown passes to give him an NFL record 50 on the season. Moss had 2 touchdowns to give him an NFL record 23. Those throws helped give New England the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history.
Game of the Week: Also pretty hard not to go with the Patriots at the Giants. The Giants had a 28-16 lead in that game before losing 38-35. The game was in doubt until the final minutes, both teams played exceptionally hard, and the result was the perfect regular season for the New England Patriots. Loser of the Weak: I would have to start with the Vikings and the Saints. While a win would have been meaningless, they didn’t know it when they were playing. The Saints gave up 2 touchdowns to Devon Hester and proved to be their same inconsistent selves until the very end. While Adrian Peterson had an incredible rookie campaign, he had a December to forget. It was his 3rd game in his final 4 where he was held under 40 yards and 0 touchdowns. With another year to grow and some improvement in the passing game he should be a player to reckon with for years to come. He just wasn’t at the end of this year and it hurt the Vikings chances to make the playoffs. The Bay of Pigs: Herm Edwards wouldn’t have it any other way. In a week where 16 teams scored 25 points or more the Jets and Chiefs combined for 23 points in the Herm Edwards Bowl. It was later announced that he will be brought back for a 3rd season. Why not? With an offensive plan like that the Chiefs will be living the dream in no time. Have fun Chief’s fans. The Cam Cameron Award (Excellence in Coaching): This one goes to Wade Phillips. You do one of two things. You either play your guys the entire game like Darth Hood and Coughlin did to build momentum for the playoffs or you sit everyone like Dungy and Gruden. You don’t play 9 defensive starters and your 1st string QB going into the 3rd quarter so that your starters can be run over heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys starters were on the field in name only. They did not get the benefits of an extra week of game time nor did they get the benefits of playing well headed into the playoffs. Knowing what the Redskins had to play for I would have probably sat my guys to avoid something like that happening.
Hospital Visit: With most of the big players sitting there were no major injuries headed into the playoffs. Jeff Fisher maintains that Vince Young could have reentered the game if needed??? We’ll have to keep our eyes on that development. The other big questions entering the playoffs is how the Steelers will play without Fast Willie Parker and whether TO will be 100% for the playoffs.
Front Office and Coaching Fallouts - There are already some openings in the front offices and coaching departments. The Ravens fired Brian Billick. This was a good move that I was lobbying for a few weeks ago. Both needed a change of scenery. The Tuna wasted little time in firing Randy Mueller as the GM. Coach Cameron cannot be very comfortable right now. Finally, Marv Levy stepped down as the GM of the Buffalo Bills. Overall Impressions of the Season that Was:
1) Congratulations to the 16-0 New England Patriots – What they did this season was simply amazing. They completed the first perfect regular season since the 1972 Dolphins. They set an NFL record for points with 589. Given that the 2004 Colts and 2006 Chargers did not challenge that record with the record seasons of Manning and LT, I thought that record would not be seriously challenged even when the Patriots started so hot. I was completely wrong about that. Brady set a record with 50 touchdown passes. That was not surprising to me given the offensive success. I was surprised that Brady did that this year after never having a 30-touchdown season in his career. Finally Randy Moss sort of broke Jerry Rice’s record with 23 touchdowns in a season. People must remember that Jerry Rice did that in a strike shortened season in which he only played 12 games. It was still an amazing accomplishment seeing no one had more than 18 touchdowns in a season coming into 2007. Great job New England on a record-breaking season. 2) What was up with the final standings – This is one thing that surprised me. Since 2002 when the league went to the current 4 teams and 4divisions format only in 2002 did all 4 teams in a division finish with less than 10 defeats. It happened in two divisions that year. Furthermore both divisions were in the AFC and it happened in a year when Oakland was the number one seed with an 11-5 record. This year we had three divisions accomplish the feat, including the AFC South, which had 3 teams win 10 games or more. However we had 4 teams finish at 13-3 or better with two being in each conference. The reason is two fold. For starters, we had 8 teams with 10 losses or more. In 2006 we also had 8 but it was one in every division. This year we had 3 divisions that had 2 such teams. That was in large part due to the inter conference schedule. While the Conferences were 32-32 against each other it was not evenly distributed. The result was an 11-5 record for the NFC East against the AFC East with 4 of the losses coming to the New England Patriots and a 13-3 record for the AFC South. The AFC North dominated the NFC West at 10-6 while the NFC North dominated the AFC West at 12-4. The result was the NFC East, NFC North, and AFC South having last place teams with 7-9 or 8-8 records that were 3-1 against the other conference but dismal against their own conference. With the conferences rotating the division they play in the other conference every season I would not expect this trend to continue. 3) Who took a step forward and who took a step back – Obviously the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs had successful seasons. I would also say the Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Texans, and Vikings had successful seasons. All with the exception of the Bills had 8-8 records or better. All were not expected to have very good seasons. All had young or first year starting quarterbacks entering the season. These are the teams that hope they can be like the Green Bay Packers and take the next step in 2008. Teams that had disappointing seasons were Carolina, Cincinnati, Detroit, Denver, and Philadelphia. While they were all 7-9 or 8-8, all four were better situated at QB entering the season and expected to compete for the division or a wild card. That leaves the 49ers, Bears, Chiefs, Dolphins, Falcons, Jets, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, and Saints as the failures of 2007. The Bears, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens, and Saints all made the playoffs in 2006. All but the Saints were eliminated before the final week of the season. All of them underachieved. The Dolphins won one game and the Rams won 3 games. The Falcons had a circus for an offseason and regular season. The Raiders were not Committed to Excellence, although they did play better. Finally the 49ers went on a free agency and draft-spending spree only to net 5 wins. 4) Preseason doesn’t matter – It is always fun to go back and look at preseason and see if we could see this crazy season unfolding in August. Couple of interesting trends. Of the 6 AFC playoff teams, 5 of them won at least half of their preseason games. Only the Colts had a losing record at 1-3. The same can be said in the NFC with only the Giants making the playoffs at 1-3. The Ravens who were 13-3 in the 2006 season and used their 1-3 season to propel them to 5-11. The Chiefs were awful without Larry Johnson in the preseason scoring only 32 points in 4 games. They were awful without him in the regular season losing their last 9 games. On the other side of the coin there were some teams that teased us in the preseason. The Jets went 3-1 in the preseason and 4-12 in the regular season. The Dolphins went 2-2 in preseason and 1-15 in the regular season. Never a good sign when you have more preseason victories than regular season victories. In the NFC the Saints and Bears went 3-2 and 3-1 in the preseason, but never got going once the games actually mattered.
5) Looking back at my predictions – While my preseason picks were far from perfect, I actually didn’t do too bad. In the AFC West I bombed on my 12-4 Denver pick. I looked for Cutler and the defense to play much better than they did. I had San Diego at 11-5. I had Oakland and KC with double-digit losses. AFC North was a disaster. I didn’t get one team in its correct spot. However, I did have the divisional winner getting only 10 games (Cincinnati) and only one team making the playoffs from that division. In the AFC South I correctly picked Indy. Jacksonville was my last team out of the playoffs and in 2nd. Houston and Tennessee I had flipped with both having double digit losses. The AFC East I had New England getting first. I was way too high on the Jets as I had them as the #6 seed. Buffalo and Miami were flipped with Buffalo only getting 5 wins and Miami 7 wins. I had New England beating San Diego in the AFC Championship, which is not likely, but alive and well. In the NFC East I correctly picked Dallas and had Philly at 8-8 outside of the playoffs. Washington I had a little low at 7 wins and I missed on the NY Giants. In the AFC South I had New Orleans as my NFC Super Bowl representative. That one was a big bust. I had Tampa Bay at 7-9 and Carolina at 9-7. Atlanta I nailed with a 5-11 pick. In the NFC North I had Chicago winning the division and Green Bay making the playoffs as the #6 seed at 9-7. Detroit I had at 6-10 and Minnesota at 4-12. Never saw Peterson having quite that impact given the QB and WR situation. Finally in the NFC West I had Seattle making the playoffs at 9-7 but losing out to the 10-6 Rams. I correctly picked San Fran to not make the playoffs at 7-9. I did have Dallas beating Green Bay but in the first round of the playoffs, before losing to New Orleans in the NFC Championship. I got 6 of the 12 teams in the playoffs with Jacksonville as my last team out. Seeing 3 of my 4-conference finalist qualified for the playoffs as 1 seeds and a 3 seed, I think I did all right. A Look Ahead: During the regular season I predicted the 5 most important games of the week. They are now all important. Here is how I see the first round of the playoffs going: 1) Washington (9-7) at Seattle (10-6) – Seattle is a very tough place to play. Since the beginning of the 2005 season the Seahawks are 23-4 at home, including 3-0 in the playoffs. That stadium is always sold out and it is extremely loud. Washington is 4-4 on the road this season. However, I like Seattle’s ability to pass the football and to play defense. I think they have better balance. I think Collins has been a great story, but I think that Washington’s season ends in Seattle. I look for Seattle to win by about 10 points. Winner: Seattle 27 – Washington 17 2) Jacksonville (11-5) at Pittsburgh (10-6) – This is the hardest game to pick for the weekend. Pittsburgh is 7-1 at home this season. However, that loss was to Jacksonville just a few weeks ago. Jacksonville has road wins over Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee, all of which are in the playoffs. Jacksonville is a dark horse to upset New England in the playoffs and they need to play well in this game to build confidence and momentum. I just don’t like where Pittsburgh has gone in recent weeks. The Jaguars, Rams, and Ravens were all able to run the ball effectively on the suddenly weak Pittsburgh defensive line. Pittsburgh has key injuries to Aaron Smith and Willie Parker. After week 9 Pittsburgh was a lock as the team with the best chance to beat the Colts or Patriots. They aren’t clicking right now and they are not healthy. I look for Jacksonville to win a close game on the road and advance to the second round. Winner: Jacksonville 23 – Pittsburgh 17 3) NY Giants (10-6) at Tampa Bay (9-7) – I don’t know who to pick. NY Giants would have been a one and done team until I saw them play their best football of the season. Can a loss build momentum? Tampa Bay I haven’t seen play in almost 3 weeks. They should at least be healthy and rested for that game. Tampa is 6-2 at home, but NY Giants are 7-1 on the road. No real help there. In the end this game comes down to what you think of Eli Manning. Anyone that has read my material knows that I don’t think very much of him. The Giants are an average scoring team and an average scoring defense. The Bucs aren’t quite as good on offense, but dominate on the defensive side of the ball. The key for the Bucs is to contain Burress. If they can do that, Eli should throw them some gifts and they should score enough to advance to the next round. Winner: Tampa Bay 16 - NY Giants 13 4) Tennessee (10-6) at San Diego (11-5) – Tennessee is a very confusing team to me. They play excellent defense and stop the run, which is a must when going up against LT. However, Vince Young gives them so little in the passing game and is prone to throwing interceptions. Yet this team went 10-6 in large part because of their ability to win 14-10 ball games. Venue isn’t very important to them. They are 5-3 both at home on the road. Meanwhile, San Diego is a great home team at 7-1. The problem is that this team has underachieved at home in the playoffs. In the end, this game is going to come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. San Diego leads the league in interceptions with 30. The second best team has 22. Other than the Minnesota Game, San Diego does well stopping the run. They are 16th in that department with that 296-yard game. If you take that game out they would rank #3 in the NFL based on their other 15 game average. I think San Diego can stop the Tennessee running game, which will make Vince Young have to throw the ball. That should lead to a few picks and San Diego should be able to turn those into points. The Chargers should win this game easily. Winner: San Diego 27 – Tennessee 9
That’s all for this week. I have lots of other articles going forward. On Wednesday I will publish my playoff preview. It gives a detailed look of all 12 teams and what I look for them to do in the playoffs. These picks should give you a hint of what I think about the teams toward the bottom of the bracket. Next week I will do a Newsletter detailing the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs. I will also handicap New England’s chances of going 19-0 by looking at what it takes to be an NFL Champion. I hope everyone enjoys the playoffs and I look forward to hearing your comments.
I hope everyone that watched the game last night enjoyed watching it. I’m sure Cowboys fans were a lot happier than the Packer Nation after the game. The game proved to be a very exciting, yet very strange contest. Here are ten impressions I had of the game.
1) The Packers offensive game plan was awful – I think the Packers got caught up in trying to play to the Cowboys weakness rather than playing to their strength. I heard a lot of people saying that the Favre went back to chucking it down field and not playing to the team’s strengths. Enough. I was not at the team meetings this week, but I find it difficult to imagine that the Packers talked about throwing the ball short all week and Favre came into the game and suddenly changed the game plan on his own. The Packers were clearly making a commitment to going downfield. I think this decision got the Packers away from their offensive strength; the short passes to the WR and really put them behind early in the game. That leads to #2:
2) The Favre injury – I’m as big of a Favre fan as anyone. He played awful last night. He went long to Driver in double coverage when Jennings was open underneath. He threw a pass into double coverage. It was probably his worst first half in a game where the Packers needed him on his A game. Once he was injured, he was not able to redeem himself. The injury actually helped the Packers, because they had to change the offensive game plan with Rodgers in there and the result was playing to their strength, the short passes. Dallas did not do well on those, and the result was a 27-10 lead that shrank to 27-24. That has to be a positive for Green Bay in a rematch. They know they can move the ball using their strength, which they should have known in the first place.
3) Don’t put Rodgers in Canton yet – The one thing that came out of this was the experts saying that this game proved the Packers could win without Favre should his injury cause him to miss time in 10 days. Has anyone heard of Rob Johnson? 22-28 or whatever he was for Jacksonville filling in for Mark Brunell. This caused Buffalo to throw 25 million at him where he did nothing. Rodgers did what he was supposed to. He prepared himself mentally to be ready on a moment’s notice and he came in and excecuted the offense. There is a difference between coming into a game that Dallas did not expect him to play in and having Dallas watch a seasons worth of film and come in with a game plan to neutralize him. Trust me, Dallas wasn’t preparing for Aaron Rodgers to play. They probably didn’t even know who he was until last night. That game gives me some confidence in Rodgers for the future, not this season. If Favre was forced to miss time, I would feel okay about Oakland. The Packers still need Favre if they want to go to the Super Bowl. One good half by Rodgers doesn’t change that.
4) Dallas was awesome on 3rd down – This was the downfall of the Packers and the reason Dallas was so successful. Dallas was 5-12 on third down, but the biggest play of the game was the 3rd and 19 deep in their own territory to start the second half. Romo completed the pass to Crayton for 35 yards and really helped change the tone of that game. If Green Bay makes that stop, they probably would have gotten the ball by midfield with a chance to put points on the board immediately.
5) Dallas stopped the pass rush – One of the concerns was how Dallas would do protecting Romo. Green Bay had 0 sacks and really didn’t put any pressure on Romo. That was huge as Romo had 309 yards and 4 touchdowns as a result. His only pick was the result of a TO juggling act in the endzone.
6) Owens got the better of the Harris matchup – Owens had 143 yards receiving in the 2nd quarter. Even though he finished with only 13 yards in the second half, the Packers had to adjust the coverage and that left a lot of other players open. Crayton benefited from that with 2 touchdowns in the redzone, as did Fassano on his touchdown catch.
7) Injuries were a factor, but not THE factor – I think injuries were a factor on both sides. You can’t tell me that Woodson, KGB, and a healthy Tauscher would not have made a difference. Similarly, you can’t tell me that Rodgers would have had as good o####ame if the Cowboys secondary hadn’t gotten dinged up. It will be interesting to see how healthy these teams get and what differences that would make in a potential rematch.
8) Don’t Complain about the Officiating – I heard some Packer fans complaining about the pass interference call in the second half and non interception call in the first half. Stop being a poor loser. While those calls could have gone the other way the Packers did too many bad things to win that game. They lost the turnover battle 2-0. 9 penalties for 142 yards are unacceptable. Even if you remove the pass interference, it was still awful. Bigby thought the facemask grab was a legal maneuver. Cut him, you can’t have someone that is that mentally incompetent on your roster. There were plenty of opportunities to win that game and officiating was not the reason Dallas won. Dallas was the better team and deserved to win the game.
9) Both teams should have been happy about the running game – I think both teams were encourage with their ground assault. If the Packers can get 94 yards and 2 touchdowns from Grant in the rematch, I think they would be happy with that. On the Cowboys end, even though they didn’t get the touchdowns in the running game, they were able to run the clock out in the 4th quarter, deplete the Packers timeouts, and kick the field goal that sealed the game.
10) Where does each team go from here – I think both teams can take away some positives. If you are the Cowboys you jumped to a 27-10 lead against the Packers while Favre was part of the game. If they take care of business, they will be guaranteed of hosting a rematch. Romo played great on a big stage. The Packers defense looked pretty average on the first 5 possessions of the game. If you are the Packers you couldn’t have started the game worse and yet were only down 27-24 at the end of the 3rd quarter. The Packers allowed Owens only 13 yards in the 2nd half and seemed to figure out some things, just a little too late. This will be a growing experience for a young team and they will only get better from this. I think people perceive this team to be battled tested, because their QB is battled tested. For a team lean on playoff experience, this was a way to play an exhibition playoff game so to speak. Cowboys will have a lot of confidence in the rematch. Packers have to feel that if they can improve on a few things they can go down there and win a rematch. It will be interesting to see if these teams meet again and how each team makes adjustments to things that hurt them. Something to keep in mind. In 2004, the Patriots went to Pittsburgh and were steamrolled 34-20. In the AFC Championship rematch, which was also at Pittsburgh, the Patriots won 41-27. Same thing with 1990. The New York Giants lost 7-3 in San Francisco with Phil Simms and went back to win the rematch 15-13 with backup QB Jeff Hostetler. However the Giants and Patriots had a core that had one Super Bowls. The Packers don’t have that. There are a lot of things that could change in the next 2 months. While this victory goes to Dallas and will make them the favorite to represent the NFC and rightfully so; don’t write off the Green and Gold yet.
Every team now has 9 games in the books. New England finally had a bye and therefore is not the story of the week. Indy looked to have a combination of injuries and a hangover from the New England loss. They dropped their second straight game. Dallas and Green Bay kept rolling and are 8-1. St Louis finally got in the win column. Meanwhile Miami limped to 0-9. If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game. It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter. Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it. I hereby present to you a recap of the tenth week in the National Football League.
Standings
AFC East NFC East 1.New England (9-0) 1.Dallas (8-1) 2.Buffalo (5-4) 2.NY Giants (6-3) 3.NY Jets (1-8) 3.Washington (5-4) 4. Miami (0-9) 4.Philadelphia (4-5)
AFC South NFC South 1.Indianapolis (7-2) 1. Tampa Bay (5-4) 2. Tennessee (6-3) 2. Carolina (4-5) 3. Jacksonville (6-3) 3. New Orleans (4-5) 4. Houston (4-5) 4. Atlanta (3-6)
AFC North NFC North 1.Pittsburgh (7-2) 1.Green Bay (8-1) 2..Cleveland (5-4) 2.Detroit (6-3) 3.Baltimore (4-5) 3. Chicago (4-5) 4.Cincinnati (3-6) 4.Minnesota (3-6)
AFC West NFC West 1. San Diego (5-4) 1. Seattle (5-4) 2. Devner (4-5) 2. Arizona (4-5) 3. Kansas City (4-5) 3. San Francisco (2-7) 4. Oakland (2-7) 4. St Louis (1-8)
MVP of the Week: Lots of great performances. It is hard not to start with the Philly duo of Westbrook and McNabb. Westbrook had 183 rushing and receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. McNabb passed for 251 yards and 4 touchdowns. Brett Favre had a league leading 351 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against 0 picks. At 38 years old he is leading the league in passing yards. Unlikely candidate Darren Sproles had a punt return and kick return for a touchdown. Finally Shayne Graham had 7 field goals, none of which were longer than 35 yards.
Game of the Week: I would go with a tie between two games. The Eagles and Washington played a back and forth match which ended with Philadelphia Eagles winning 33-25. The Eagles scored 2 touchdowns in 0:58 to take the lead in the game with 2:18 left in the game. The victory kept any playoff hopes the Eagles had alive. Playoff teams can not go 0-4 in the division. The other game would be the Browns at the Steelers. The Browns took a 21-9 halftime lead. The Steelers stormed back and took the lead in the fourth quarter by the score of 31-28. The Browns had a chance to tie with a 52 yard field goal to close the game that was a few yards too short. The Steelers used that win to go 4-0 in the division and take a 2 game lead over the Browns. It also vaulted them into the #2 seed in the AFC.
Loser of the Weak: The Vikings and the 49ers. Both teams were shutout by a combined 55-0 by the Packers and Seahawks. The Saints who wasted an opportunity to tie idle Tampa Bay and dropped a game to the winless Rams. The Saints trailed 34-7 in the 4th quarter before losing 37-29. Peyton Manning deserves mention for throwing a Colts record 6 picks in the loss to San Diego. While the weather conditions were not desirable, the Colts are injured, and despite all the first half issues he still had the Colts in position to win the game; there was still no excuse for that type of performance. Other quarterbacks have faced similar situations and not played that poorly. Finally Jon Kitna deserves mention for his 4 turnovers in the Lions loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
The Bay of Pigs: Chicago at Oakland and Indy at San Diego. I had the honor of watching Oakland and Chicago play to a 6-3 score late in the 4th quarter while the Cowboys and Giants were playing a great contest. Thank you Chicago for giving me such a worthy consolation prize. Indy and San Diego combined for 9 turnovers and two chip shot missed field goals to produce and exciting game that was exciting because of the numerous miscues and blunders by both teams.
The Cam Cameron Award (Excellence in Coaching): Norv Turner proved to be a coaching icon on Sunday Night. First, what was he doing have Phillip Rivers throw a ball from the endzone with an 8 point lead early in the 4th quarter? The result was a fumble and 6 Indy points that put Indy right back into the ballgame. The next brilliant move was a challenge of a Reggie Wayne catch that was clearly a catch that cost San Diego a timeout and second challenge. Good thing Norv didn’t have any challenges left so that he couldn’t have an interception overturned when it really mattered. Tony Dungy deserves mention for wasting a timeout arguing a bad call by the officials. While I agreed with his frustration, you can’t assume you are going to make the field goal. That proved costly when the normally Automatic Adam missed a chip shot and he needed to stop the clock. Tony Dungy has an excellent track record of putting his team in a position to win the game. Dungy was the first to blame himself for that move and I respect that. The real reason for the loss was the missed field goal. Norv Turner continued to show why he is a great coordinator that should not be in charge of an NFL team. The Chargers come out too flat too often and he does not make decisions that consistently give his team a chance to win football games. He needed a missed chip shot to save him the shame of blowing a 23-0 lead.
Hospital Visit: Dwight Freeney was injured in the Chargers game and is expected to miss a few weeks. That prompted the signing of Simeon Rice off of the waiver wire. Adrian Peterson was the biggest injury to an offensive player. He has a torn ligament in his knee, but is being ruled out for the next game. His status for the rest of the season is uncertain. Buffalo’s RB #### sprained an ankle and is undergoing test. Brian Griese was hurt giving way to Rex Grossman for a second stint this year. Rex is expected to start. Steve McNair is complaining about a sore shoulder. He may be in danger of losing his job. Finally, Mike Shanahan suffered a serious concussion minutes before he said the following about Travis Henry, “"If I thought the test was positive, Travis would not be on our football team," I would have had more respect for Mike if he would have said Travis is still on our team because we are trying to save our pathetic start to the 07 season. How many times does Travis Henry have to “allegedly” test positive for smoking weed before Mike Shanahan admits what the rest of us already know; that Travis Henry is Ricky Williams in disguise? I think Mike Shanahan is a brilliant coach. But please stop insulting our intelligence, Mike.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants – That was a huge win for the Cowboys. Had the Cowboys lost that game, both teams would be 7-2, tiebreaker would have gone to the team that ended the season with a better divisional record, and the Packers would have the best record in the NFC by one game. By winning the game Dallas is 8-1. They are tied with Green Bay for best record in the NFC. The Giants are 6-3 and would need to win 3 more games than the Cowboys in the next 7 games to finish with a one game lead in the division. The Giants are basically relegated to fighting for the #1 wildcard and they can get a jump on that with a win in Detroit this weekend. If they drop that game, they are suddenly in a second half slump and fighting to get in the playoffs as the final wildcard. Sound familiar?
2) Cleveland, Detroit, and Washington all lose – I think you saw the difference between being a seasoned veteran team and being an upstart team. These teams all had a top 6 pick in the draft this season. Detroit and Washington were playing to keep pace with Green Bay and Detroit. Cleveland was playing to be tied with Pittsburgh. Detroit lost 31-21 in the Desert to a team they should have beaten. This loss will not help with the perception that Detroit cannot win road games. Cleveland has a 21-6 lead in Pittsburgh, but could not hold onto the victory. They lost 31-28. Washington allowed Philadelphia to score 14 points at the end of the game and steal a victory in Washington. What this shows is that while these teams are rapidly improving, they haven’t developed that killer instinct that you would like to see. All three of these teams will have plenty of opportunities to win big games for the rest of the season. All three will need to play better if they want to continue to be in the postseason discussion.
3) The Aints Came Marching in – Embarrassing. That is how I would describe that performance. New Orleans had a chance to tie idle Tampa Bay for the division lead. They had a chance to set themselves up nicely for their 3 consecutive division games that begin in a few weeks. Yet in the 4th quarter they found themselves down 34-7 to the winless St Louis Rams. I couldn’t believe what I was watching. While the Saints made the score respectable and actually had a small chance to tie the game should they have recovered an onside kick with about: 30 left in the game, the fact is that if they miss the playoffs at the end of the season, that will be the game they look back at that performance and shake their heads. For a team that was in the NFC Championship Game a season ago and put themselves in position to need every win they can get after a 0-4 start, that loss was unacceptable.
4) Steve McNair’s Future – He looks done. Since his Week 4 game in which he threw for 307 yards in a loss to Cleveland, he has missed 2 games. Since coming back from the injury he threw for 63 yards against Pittsburgh and 128 yards against the awful Cincinnati defense. It may be the worst consecutive game performance by a quarterback that I can remember. The Baltimore Sun is reporting that McNair has a sore shoulder. It just looks like his shoulder has failed him at this point. McNair had a very good career in Tennessee and was within a yard of tying the Super Bowl and going to OT against an all time great St Louis Rams team. He kept Tennessee competitive for years. Last year he breathed life into an offense that was at its end. At this point he either needs to sit down and get healthy, retire, or accept the fact that he is probably a back up QB at this point. He would be very valuable in that regard. He would be a great fit in Oakland, Denver, Kansas City, or a place with a young QB that needs a mentor. He could serve in that role in Baltimore. But he just doesn’t look capable of leading an NFL offense weak to week. It is more than just these last 2 games. He hasn’t looked good all season. While Brett Favre had a few down years while the talent was down around him, he never hit this low and you could tell he still had the arm strength to make throws. I can’t see where improving the offense is going to make that much of a difference. My hope is that McNair gets to leave the game on his own terms. He has been such a great ambassador for the game that he deserves the opportunity to do that.
5) The Indianapolis Colts or Pittsburgh Steelers Race for #2 – If the playoffs started today, Pittsburgh would be the #2 seed, as these two teams haven’t played each other and Pittsburgh has one loss in the conference vs. the two losses of the Colts. The Colts have some serious injury issues and are in a tougher division. The Steelers have already swept their toughest division rival in Cleveland. They have a big game looming with New England in a few weeks. Indy has two tough tames against Jacksonville and Tennessee, among others. I believe both of these teams will win the division. I still like Indy to get the #2 seed, provided they start getting healthy. I’m not going to change my preseason pick because of a bizarre game in San Diego. However, it is going to be a much contested race that will probably come down to the last couple weeks of the season. Indy can not afford to lose many more ball games if they want to stay in that race.
A Look Ahead: I went from a perfect 5-0 in week 9 to 3-2 on my picks in week 10. Indy and Jacksonville came back to haunt me. Here are my important games for next week. These are not necessarily the 5 best games, but the 5 games that I feel will be the most influential in shaping the various divisions:
1) New York Giants (6-3) at Detroit Lions (6-3) –Key game for two playoff contenders coming off losses. The winner will have the inside track to the #1 wildcard with Detroit still having Division Title hopes as they still have 2 games against Green Bay. The Loser will still be in decent shape for the wildcard, but will ha
