It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”

‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”

On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."

We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road.  Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks.  Most will not live up to expectations.  Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams.  Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes. 

We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed.  None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action.  It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust.  Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players.  It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.

Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now?  Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers.  Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player.  If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.

Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft.  I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008.  I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names.  I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super.  However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5.  22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.

The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there.  Both were selected in the 3rd round.

The position I struck out on was wide receiver.  I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round.  Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round.   That was brutal. 

Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B.  By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.

5 questions

1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right.  Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons.  Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007.  He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself.  They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball.  He was the player that could most help them do that.  By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.

The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting.  With these guys you don’t.  The draft can be very unforgiving.  Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss.  They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver. 

However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams.  The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen.  I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired.  This was a good gamble.  The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own.  This may end up going down as a win-win trade.

2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.  Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong. 

Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick.  If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.

This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy.  It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta.  It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them.  They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.

With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players.  While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.

3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long?  Absolutely.  Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later.  Both players were safe picks.  I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft.  Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling.  Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling.  There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round.  There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10. 

By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one.  If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.

4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure.  This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product.  The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition.  There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi.  Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois.  The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school.   The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him.  Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.

The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty.  While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft.  I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round.  If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble.  If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department.  At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round.  Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback.  If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.

5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy.  Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now.  He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt.  Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.

Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing.  If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend.  The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later.  Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer. 

Brohm fills two needs.  First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them.  From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense.  Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history.  That is not a good sign. 

The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out.  If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games.  If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future.  The value was good and the pick made sense.  Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.

5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.

1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen.  If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too.  That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team.  While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.

Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams.  The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season.  It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith.  At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line.  You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends. 

The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick.  It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player. 

The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft.  While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board.  He should substantially upgrade their defensive line.  Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement.  Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round.  He should help improve the secondary. 

Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2.  Jamal Charles could be a quality running back.  Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft.   I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.

The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota.  If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road.  This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.

2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year.  Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007.  Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10.   Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down.  They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State.  He is a bigger receiver.  Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end.  Finally, they added Malcom Kelly.  Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout.  Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.

On the second day they added a lot of depth.  Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly.  Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle.  They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner.  This was a major need as well. 

The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position.  Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone.  The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone.  When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot. 

Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round.  They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense.  If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.

3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft.  The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long.  Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007.  Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick.  That was good value.

In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick.  He should help on their defensive line.  Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.

The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks.  On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs.  Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round.  He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.

While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year.  They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle.  The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL.  Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line.  If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard. 

Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off.  Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength.  If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment.  Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round.  Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft.  I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick

This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad.  In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft.  They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery.  He may move to receiver. 

They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development.  Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.

5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick.  I had him rated slightly higher than Jones.  However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber.  The pick makes sense in that respect.

Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick.  That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up.  Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett. 

The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names.  The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round.  They have excellent potential to do that.  Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3.  With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.

5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.

1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver.  I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade.  Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game.  White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.

Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards.  They have to find a way to upgrade that position.  Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan.  While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver.  The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California.  I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind.  William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy.  That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.

Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft.  The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys.  Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson.  Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks.  I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be. 

I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs.  I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points.  The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves.  The Chargers have a lot of weapons.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace.  Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year. 

Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft.  In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.

2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out.  It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter.  However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect.  I thought this was a substantial reach.  Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell.  That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value. 

Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.” 

I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round.  The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith.  That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line. 

I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back.  While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect.    This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City. 

3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds.  Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion.  But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round? 

Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized.  A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner.  I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point.  The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.

Then they drafted Justin King on day two.  He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver.  All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that.  With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.

4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9.  I thought he would slip later into the first round.  But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?

The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into.  Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ.  It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.

Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson.  While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that.  Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.

Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him.  Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season.  While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2. 

The Bengals did okay in the later rounds.  Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver.  If he can stay healthy he could contribute.  Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise.  He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence.  At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp. 

While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out.  If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft.  I don’t think they did much after that.  I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008.  Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.

5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out?  I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots.  I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft. 

I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans.  But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress.  He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.

I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10.  Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft.  Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round.  I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round.  I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo.  All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.

Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round.  Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions.  Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly.  When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.

The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years.  Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right.  They selected linebacker depth and special teams help.  Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell. 

Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo.   I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson.  You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft.  That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.

That is my draft recap.  Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May.  Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.