I'm going to be away
from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the
blogger world. I appreciate everyone that commented on the various
divisions. What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments
from various fans.
I'm going to leave an
open question for people to comment on.
This is a very simple
question. What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it
comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the
greatest concern?
Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look
forward to reading the comments when I get back.
This is my final installment of eight NFL division
previews. While there is still
over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could
be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing
out after the free agency period and the draft. Here are the links to the other divisions that have
already been completed.
The NFC West had a rough year in 2007. Seattle won the division with a 10-6
record, but was 1-1 against playoff teams. They won their wildcard game against Washington before being
blown out by Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Arizona finished 8-8, but two
disappointing losses to the 49ers kept them out of playoff contention. The 49ers were a trendy pick to win the
division after a free agency spending spree and finished 5-11. Finally, the Rams who were also a
trendy pick to win the division finished 3-13 and had the second overall pick
in the draft. Injuries and
inconsistent play were largely responsible for a division that produced only
one team with a winning record.
The NFC West has been owned by the Seattle Seahawks, who
have won the division for 4 consecutive seasons and made the playoffs for 5
consecutive seasons. Here is how I
see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC West.
1) Arizona
Cardinals
07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 404 (7th)
Points Allowed: 399 (27th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in
NFL)
Strengths: The Arizona Cardinals
have one of the strongest passing offenses in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald had 100 catches for
1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Anquan Boldin added 71 catches for 853 yards and 9 touchdowns, despite
missing 5 starts with an injury.
Those two are the most explosive wide receiver combo in the NFC. Fitzgerald will be 25 years old at the
end of August and Boldin will be 28 years old in October. If the Cardinals can resolve
Boldin’s contract issues they should have a dominant receiving duo for years to
come. Bryant Johnson was a solid 3rd
receiver and is only 27 years old.
Losing him to division rival San Francisco was a meaningful loss. He has filled in well in he past when
Boldin or Fitzgerald was hurt. Ben
Patrick and Leonard Pope are young tight ends that the Cardinals hope can
emerge. The Cardinals are loaded
with young offensive weapons at WR and TE.
Kurt Warner enjoyed his best season
since his years in St Louis. He
had 11 starts, 3,417 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 17 picks, and an 89.8 QB
rating. He is expected to be the
backup to 3rd year QB Matt Leinart who really struggled at the
beginning of the season before having his 2007 campaign cut short by a
collarbone injury. Leinart has
reportedly looked very strong this offseason, but Warner is still taking snaps
with the first team. If he
struggles the coaching staff will not hesitate to go with Warner.
Edge James rebounded slightly in
2007, thanks to a coaching staff that focused on the run slightly more than
Denny Green. His 1,222 rushing
yards were 7th in the NFL and he improved his yards per carry from
3.4 to 3.8, which is still not great.
That signing has not produced the results many thought it would. The Cardinals have no one else that ran
the ball and finished 29th in rushing yards gained.
The Cardinals front seven did a
nice job of stopping the run, finishing 9th in the NFL. They also finished 13th
in sacks with 36. Losing Calvin
Pace to the Jets was a significant loss, but the Jets drastically overpaid for
his services. Six years and 42
million dollars was too much cap space to part with. The Cardinals did not
replace him with anyone in free agency or the draft. 4th year player
Chike Okeafor is expected to take that spot.
Weaknesses: Ken Whisenhunt was an
assistant for the Steelers on teams that had very strong defenses. That is what he has been brought in to
fix. He needs to install toughness
on offense and rebuild a bad defense.
The Cardinals have had a good enough passing offense to make the
playoffs the last few years. The main problem on defense was stopping the
pass. They finished 28th
in pass yards allowed and 25th in touchdown passes allowed.
That was the main motivation for
adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round of the draft. The Cardinals could have used a back to
split carries with Edge, but the Cardinals could not pass on the opportunity to
add secondary help. He has big
play potential and is expected to be the nickel back as a rookie. Roderick Hood and Eric Green are
expected to remain the starters.
Adrian Wilson is a solid safety and Antrel Rolle will be the other
safety this year. The secondary
should be improved in 2008.
The other area the Cardinals wanted
to improve on was the pass rush.
While 36 sacks ranked 12th it was also 17 sacks less than the
league leading NY Giants. The
Cardinals were far from an elite pass rushing group last season. Darnell Dockett made the Pro Bowl with
his 9 sacks at defensive tackle spot.
The Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell and Kenny Iwebema to give them
more depth at defensive end and more of a pass rush.
Finally, the offensive line still
needs some work. James is still an
effective runner, but doesn’t get the same lanes he did in Indy. Brown and Gandy are good at tackle, but
the Cardinals have little depth behind those two. The interior of the offensive line is improved from the
Denny Green days, but still needs work.
Prediction: This is my surprise division winner pick in 2008. The Cardinals have been
a trendy wildcard pick the last couple seasons only to disappoint. I picked them to finish 4th
last season, which turned out to be an underestimate. I thought it would take a couple years to recover from the
Denny Green era. There are good
things going on in Arizona and few people realize the Cardinals were two bad
49er losses away from earning a wildcard.
The Cardinals beat the Steelers, Seahawks, and Browns last season. This was anything but a pushover.
I love the schedule to start the
season. 1) @ San Fran, 2) Miami,
3) Washington, 4) New York Jets, and 5) Buffalo gives them an excellent chance
to start 4-1. They need to start
hot because they close the season with 15) Minnesota, 16) @ New England, and
17) Seattle. That isn’t going to
be an easy stretch to make up ground.
Arizona had a very nice draft and
would be a bigger favorite to me if they had their quarterback situation
figured out. Warner is a question
mark at this point in his career and Leinart needs to break out this year. If he has another year like he did last
year he is going to earn the bust label.
I expect him to rebound. I
think Arizona made a good hire in Whisenhunt and the Cardinals are on the way
up. I think Seattle’s window has
started to close. This is the year
I think the Cardinals finally put it together and win the NFC West behind a
potent offense and a favorable schedule.
2008 Strength of Schedule: 122-134
(.477) (19th in NFL)
Strengths: The strength of this team is their
defense. That is important,
because no other team has a defense with as much talent as the Seahawks in the
NFC West. The Seahawks recorded
the 4th most sacks in the NFL with 45. That was in large part to Patrick Kearny and his All Pro
14.5 sack season. The defensive
line did an excellent job of putting pressure on the quarterback.
What they need to improve on is
stopping the run. They ranked 12th
in rush yards allowed and 27th in rush touchdowns allowed. That was really the defense’s only
weakness in 2007. This is a very
fast front 7, which creates the pressure, but is a little on the light side to
stop the run. The Green Bay
Packers exposed the Seahawks for that weakness in the divisional round. Ryan Grant ran right through that
defense for the tune of 201 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Lofa Tatupu has emerged as one of
the best middle linebackers in the NFL.
He was an All Pro selection last season. Julian Peterson was selected to the Pro Bowl at the outside
linebacker spot. These two are
extremely fast and make plays all over the field.
In the secondary Marcus Trufant had
a Pro Bowl year with 7 picks. He
is emerging as one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks. Jennings, Russell, and Grant round out a very solid
secondary.
On offense, Matt Haselbeck has
established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He had 3,966 yards passing, 28 touchdowns,
12 picks, and a 91.4 rating without the benefit of getting much help from the
running game. He is now the
featured part of the Seahawks offense.
Alexander had only 716 rushing
yards and 4 touchdowns in 2007.
That seems incomprehensible when you consider he had 1,880 rushing yards
and 27 rushing touchdowns in 2005.
Alexander was released and while it will look strange not to have him as
the featured runner for the first time since his rookie season in 2000, the
Seahawks abandoned him in 2007 and were already featuring Hasselbeck and the
passing game. That will make that
transition easier.
Finally, you can’t talk about the
Seahawks offense without mentioning Walter Jones. He has been as solid of a tackle as the NFL has had over the
last decade. At 34 he is still
going strong. He anchors a line
that is still good, but not as dominant as 2005 when they went to the Super
Bowl.
Weaknesses: This is a team with a lot of question
marks on offense. That is a
surprising statement given Mike Holmgren’s reputation as an offensive
mastermind.
Let’s start with the wide
receivers. Deion Branch tore his
ACL in the playoff loss to the Packers on January 15, 2008. That really puts his status in jeopardy
to start the season. Bobby Engram
is 35 years old. He had a career
year with 94 catches and 1,147 yards.
He is unhappy and demanding a new deal. DJ Hackett left for Carolina. That leaves special team standout, but disappointing
receiver Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu to battle for playing time opposite
Engram. That is huge, because of
the Seahawks inability to run the ball last year. They used a lot of 4 WR sets to spread the ball out. Teams need a lot of WR depth to do
that. The Seahawks are not as deep
as last year and that is a concern.
The Seahawks have no tight end
production. The tight end is a big
component in the West Coast offense.
Marcus Pollard was released.
Will Heller is expected to be the starter. He has 32 catches for 228 yards and 7 touchdowns, not last
year but in 5 years and 58 career games.
John Carlson is a rookie 2nd round and will be expected to
contribute immediately.
Then there is the running
game. People need to stop acting
like Julius Jones is the savior of the running game. He rushed for 3.6 yards per carry behind one of the best
offensive lines in football with Dallas last year. There is a reason the Cowboys went with Barber and let Jones
walk. He should be a good fit in
this offense, but I can’t see him rushing for 1,200 plus yards and 10
touchdowns. He is not a featured
back. Morris, Duckett, and Jones
will split duties depending on the situation. I don’t look for any of them to emerge.
Then there is the offensive
line. Walter Jones is now 34 years
old. The Seahawks have never
really replaced Hutchinson since he left for Minnesota. Mike Wahle was a good pickup at guard,
but he hasn’t been the same since he left Green Bay. He was injured in 2006 and played on a bad offense in
2007. If he can return to his
Green Bay form it will help the Seahawks regain their running form of a few
years ago.
Finally, there is the special teams
factor. Josh Brown signed with St
Louis and was an extremely reliable kicker. The new kicker is no other than Olindo Mare, who was a
disaster in New Orleans. He was 10
for 17 on field goals and New Orleans plays in a lot of nice weather sites,
including their dome. How is he
going to respond kicking in the elements.
When you add those things all together I think the offense is going to
take a significant step back in 2008.
I think Mare could cost them a couple games that Brown would have
won.
Prediction: This is supposed to be Mike Holmgren’s
last season with the Seahawks before he calls it quits on what has been a
legendary career. He has coached
in 3 Super Bowls, winning it all in Super Bowl XXXI. He coached all time great Joe Montana and Hall of Famer
Steve Young as a coordinator in San Fran.
He developed one of the all time great quarterbacks in Brett Favre as
the Packer’s Head Coach. He has
gone to a Super Bowl in Seattle developing Hasselbeck to go along with
Alexander and a strong running game.
His coaching tree speaks for itself. The number of ex Holmgren assistants coaching around the NFL
is long and prominent. If he
actually decides to hang it up it will have been a fantastic career, one that
should see him inducted into Canton, Ohio.
It would seem logical to pick the
Hawks to win the division in his last year and ride out into the sunset. I just don’t like the Seahawks team
this season as much as in years past.
I think they have gotten a little bit older. I don’t think they have a lot of good answers at wide
receiver. I’m not a fan of their
running game. I’m not going to
pick an offense to do well, just because they have a head coach and quarterback
with solid reputations. There are
a lot of other things that go into having a good offense.
Still, the Seahawks are going to
score points. This is not one of
the 10 worst offenses in the NFL.
It isn’t even the worst offense in the division. However in order for the defense to get
those sacks and not give up a lot of rushing yards, Seattle needs their offense
to dominate the action. I’m not
sure they can do that in 2008 like they did last season.
The Seahawks have been the class of
this division since 2003. However,
there are moments when you look back and see the door slam shut on a teams
run. That’s what I think we saw in
that Green Bay game. The Seahawks
had a 14-0 lead in that game and proceed to get stomped. That game was disturbing on so many
levels. It wasn’t that they lost;
it was how they lost. They were
manhandled on both sides of the ball.
They have progressively gone in the wrong direction since 2005. A very weak schedule and bad division probably
saved them in 2007.
I think they have a pretty tough
stretch in the middle of the season.
They play 9) Philadelphia, 10) @ Miami, 11) Arizona, 12) Washington, 13)
@ Dallas, and 14) New England.
They also have games against 6) Green Bay and 7) @ Tampa Bay, which will
not be as good as last year, but still tough.
The Seahawks will still win their
share of games. They will still be
tough at home. I wouldn’t be
shocked if they were able to put together a division winner. The NFC West isn’t exactly the toughest
division right now. I just think
it is someone else’s time. The
Cardinals should be able to maneuver the middle of the season with greater ease
than the Seahawks and build a cushion heading into their tough stretch to close
the season. While the Cardinals
will not run away with the division, I predict they will sneak by the Seahawks,
who will still be tough, but not as tough as in years past.
Seattle Seahawks’ Record: 8-8 – NFC
West 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) St
Louis Rams
07 Record: 3-13
Points Scored: 263 (28th)
Points Allowed: 438 (31st)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 125-131
(.488) (17th in NFL)
Strengths: When you start the season 0-8, finish
with the 2nd worst scoring defense and the 5th worst
scoring offense there aren’t a lot of things to hang your hat on. However, the Rams were probably hit by
injuries worse than any team in the NFL.
They had massive casualties on the offensive line, including future Hall
of Fame tackle Orlando Pace, who was lost for the season in the opener. He missed 8 games in 2006 and it
remains to be seen if he can still stay healthy an entire season.
Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger
missed 4 starts each. Torry Holt
was not the same Torry Holt as a couple years ago due to his knee
condition. Doctors feel he will be
able to play still, but fear it will be a chronic problem. If those three guys aren’t healthy the
whole season the Rams can’t win.
Issac Bruce is no longer with the
team, having moved to San Francisco.
He was a great receiver for many years, but Holt has been the go to guy
in recent years. They still have
Bennett and they drafted Donnie Avery in the second round. Randy McMichael needs to regain his
Dolphin form from a few seasons ago.
Josh Brown was a nice
addition. He is a solid kicker
that is an upgrade over Wilkins and hurts a division rival at the same time.
The bottom line is that the 28th
ranking in scoring offense from last season is deceiving. When this offense is healthy it is
extremely dangerous. Bulger had
4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 8 picks in 2006. Steven Jackson had 2,334 rushing and receiving yards and
scored 16 touchdowns in 2006. Holt
had 1,188 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2006. He had almost identical numbers in 2007, but had 3 fewer
touchdowns catches. These are
three of the premier offensive players in the NFL. When they are healthy and at full strength they can put up
points in bunches. Given the state
of their defense that will be a must if they want to win in 2008.
Weaknesses: This defense has all kinds of
problems. They struggled to stop
the pass, rush the passer, and stop the run. Their only real strength on defense was playmaking. They ranked tied for 10th in
the NFL with interceptions with 18 interceptions. However, when you give up over 20 points in 12 of the 16
games there is going to be problems winning games. The defense was a joke in December giving up 33 points to
Green Bay, 41 to Pittsburgh, and 48 to Arizona. No defense was playing as bad as the Rams at the end of the
season.
That was the main reason for
selecting Chris Long with the second pick in the draft. Defenses are built from
the defensive line out and the Rams need to overhaul that unit. Adam Carriker can then move to
defensive tackle. With Leonard
Little, James Hall, and Chris Long rushing from the ends the Rams are hoping they
can put more pressure on the quarterback.
They also added Justin King in the 4th round to help in the
secondary. He was an up and down
corner at Penn State. He should be
a nickel and dime package guy as a rookie.
However, other than Long they
really haven’t made a lot of changes to a defense that was downright awful in
2007. I still see St Louis as one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.
The other area of concern was the
offensive line. John Greco was
drafted in the 3rd round to provide depth. They really didn’t add anyone other than him there
either. If they suffer injuries
like they did last year they will struggle to maximize their skill position
talent.
Finally, Trent Green was an
interesting signing. They went
from a bad backup in Gus Frerotte to a guy that a few years ago was among the
better QBs in the league. However,
they aren’t getting the guy that threw for over 4,500 yards in 2004. They are getting a guy that is a
concussion away from retirement.
If Bulger misses a lot of time the Rams do not stand a good chance to
compete in most games. I don’t
think Green can hold up for more than a game or two.
Prediction: This is a team that
looked to be headed in the right direction with Scott Linehan finishing 8-8 in
his first year. I thought they would
win the NFC West last season. This
defense has absolutely collapsed and the Rams are in need of a major overhaul.
I thought this team really struck
out in the draft. I like Chris
Long and think he will be a fantastic player. He may be the only player on this roster in three years from
now. Avery and King were real
reaches in my opinion.
The Rams will do better in 2008,
just because their skill position players should stay healthy and they have the
offense to score. That still
means 10 losses and another top 10 pick in 2008.
St Louis Rams’ Record: 6-10 – NFC West 3rd Place;
No Playoffs
4) San
Francisco 49ers
07 Record: 5-11
Points Scored: 219 (32nd)
Points Allowed: 364 (20th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 124-132
(.484) (18th in NFL)
Strengths: Patrick Willis had as good of a rookie
year as I can remember from a defensive rookie. He had 174 tackles, including back-to-back 18 tackle games
against Arizona and Carolina and a 20-tackle game against Tampa Bay. Rarely is a rookie able to come into
the NFL in his first year and put up those kinds of numbers. When you consider how little help he
had around him it was a very impressive start to what I expect will be a great
career.
The 49ers have some nice pieces on
defense. I already mentioned
Willis. He is a player the defense
can build around. Kentwan Balmer
was a nice first round pick that should give them help at defensive tackle. Manny Lawson is a young star in the
making that was limited to 2 games last season. If he can come back healthy that will help the defense. Nate Clements gives them a corner to
build the secondary around and Michael Lewis is a good safety. Walt Harris gives them a good
second corner.
The defense struggled to stop
people, because they got no help from the offense. Turnovers and a lack of yardage put the 49ers defense
against their backs in 2007. This
defense rarely played with a big lead.
While this defense will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens they need
a better offense to realize their full potential.
On offense, Frank Gore took a step
back in 2007 with injuries. He had
1,102 yards and 5 touchdowns. They
were hoping for the 1,695 and 8 touchdowns he gave them in 2006. With the passing game the 49ers have in
place they will need him to get back to his 2006 numbers if they want to win
more than 5 games in 2008. DeShaun
Foster was a very good signing that should give them good depth at the running
back position.
Mike Martz has been brought in to
fix the offense. Issac Bruce was a
good signing as he is familiar with the system and can help mentor the younger
guys. Vernon Davis has all the
tools to be an All-Pro Tight End.
It will be interesting to see how Martz utilizes his talent, given his
history of not using tight ends in his pass heavy offensive scheme.
Weaknesses: This was not the worst offense I ever
saw. The 2006 Oakland Raiders and
their 168 points scored take that honor.
49er fans will remind me their 2005 product may have been worse than
2007. But this offense was so bad
on so many levels. The offense scored
more than 20 points on just two occasions (21 against Tampa Bay and 37 against
Arizona). When you consider Tampa
played their backups most of that game you can understand why this team
struggled to win games in 2007.
Their offensive production was horrific.
In my opinion Alex Smith is a major
bust. Part of that is because he
plays in a new offensive system every year. Part of the reason is that he plays so bad that he helps the
offensive coordinator get fired every year. To label a guy a bust at 24 years old may seem premature to
some people. However, he is
entering his 4th year.
There gets to be a point where a guy is no longer a young player, but
rather just a bad player. He has a
career 63.5 QB rating in 30 career starts. He had 2 touchdown throws in 7 starts in 2007. The game appears to be played at a
speed that is too fast for him at a time when it should have already slowed
down. It will be interesting to
see if the 49ers go with Shaun Hill or if they give Alex Smith the entire
season to show if he has what it takes to play in this league.
The 49ers don’t have much in the
way of targets. Bruce is an
upgrade, but his best days are clearly behind him. Bryant Johnson has been a 3rd receiver the
majority of his career. It remains
to be seen if he can carry an offense. Battle and Lelie are not players that have proven they
can contribute on offense. This is
a very thin receiving core, which does not allow Martz to run the offense he
would like to run.
Prediction: There just aren’t a lot
of good things to say about this team right now. It amazes me that a team that was so successful in the 80s
and 90s has fallen on such hard times.
Even if Joe Montana and Steve Young seems like ages ago, Jeff Garcia and
TO does not. The 49ers went 22-10
in 2001 and 2002. They made the
playoffs both season. Since then
7-9 is the best they have done.
Mike Nolan is a good defensive
coordinator that just hasn’t been able to get an offense in place. Part of that is Alex Smith. That was the quarterback the 49ers drafted
in his rookie campaign. Whether it
is Nolan’s fault that Smith hasn’t developed or Smith’s fault that Nolan’s
offenses can’t score is an interesting debate. It is most likely a little of both. The 49ers have finished last in the NFL
in yards gained 2 out of his 3 years, so it couldn’t be much worse than it is
right now. This team has very
little offensive firepower.
I think Gore and the defense give
them a chance to win a few games.
I like the fact they play the AFC East and the Rams twice. That gives them a chance to be
competitive in some of their games.
The bottom line though is that you need offense to win in the NFL and
the 49ers just don’t have enough of it to compete week in and week out. Their defense is solid, but not like
the 2005 Bears where it can carry a nonexistent offense. I look for more of the same in
2008. I think the 49ers finish
4-12, end the Mike Nolan era, and look forward to their next rebuilding
project.
San Francisco 49ers’ Record: 4-12 – NFC West 4th Place;
No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
This is my seventh of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until
training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries
prior to the opening of training camp.
However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency
period and the draft. My plan is
to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in
the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC West was probably the most disappointing division in
2007. The AFC West combined to go
10-22 on the road. The AFC West
had a combined 14-26 record out of division. The Chargers were expected to compete for the Super Bowl
after going 14-2 in 2006. They
started 5-5, before winning their last 6 games to close the season and advance
to the AFC Championship Game. The
Denver Broncos were a big player in free agency and were supposed to compete
with the Chargers for the division.
They were a very disappointing 7-9. The Chiefs were going through a youth moment and while
making the playoffs again was not necessarily expected, they fell from 9-7 to
4-12. Finally, you have the
Raiders who actually exceeded many people’s expectations, but just didn’t have
enough talent to win more than 4 games.
The AFC West has been owned by the San Diego Chargers the
last couple seasons. Here is how I
see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC West.
1)San
Diego Chargers
07 Record: 11-5
Points Scored: 412(5th)
Points Allowed: 284 (5th)
Playoff Result: Lost AFC
Championship Game
2008 Strength of Schedule:108-148 (.422) (31st in NFL)
Strengths: The Chargers have done an excellent job
in recent years drafting players and the result is a team that has a lot of
strengths. They used those to
advance to the AFC Championship Game, despite the injuries they had to Rivers,
LT, and Gates. It was a very
inspiring effort that they should be applauded for. Therefore, the Chargers had the luxury of not having to be
active in free agency and being able to use their draft picks to sure up
depth.
Let’s start with the defense, which
was the strength of the 2007 season.
The Chargers terrorized quarterbacks in 2007. They ranked 5th in sacks with 42. Shawne Merriman has become a premier
pass rusher. Many people thought
he had a down year and he still recorded 12.5 sacks. Shaun Phillips had 8.5 sacks and flies under the radar with
Merriman grabbing most of the attention. Stephen Cooper is going to have to sit
the first four games of the NFL season, which does not help an inside
linebacker position that is not the strength of the defense to begin with.
The Chargers ranked 1st
in quarterback rating allowed at 70.0.
Their high number of interceptions drove that. They had a league best 30 interceptions, 8 more than the
second place teams Indianapolis and Tennessee. To put that in perspective, 14 interceptions, which are 8
less than Indy and Tennessee ranked 23rd in the NFL. The Chargers were in a class by
themselves. Antonio Cromartie had a lot to do with that as he recorded a league
best 10 interceptions despite only starting eight games. Antoine Cason was
added to the defensive backs as a first round pick and should help the Chargers
nickel and dime packages. You can
never have enough defensive backs in a playoff game against the Colts and
Patriots.
On offense, LT didn’t have a record
setting year, but he still was amazing.
He managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,474 yards, 4.7 yards per
carry, and a league best 15 rushing touchdowns. That speaks to how well the Chargers offensive line played,
especially in the second half of the season. Gates was also great last season. He had 984 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. The interesting thing to watch will be
how Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson do now that they have a full year
together. Jackson came close, but
failed to record a 100-yard game in 2007.
He had no multi touchdown games. Chris Chambers did neither of those things in his
Charger career. If the Chargers
are going to finally contend for the Super Bowl they need to get more
production out of their wide receivers.
They are receiving almost exclusively single coverage and need to make
teams pay for that.
On special teams Darren Sproles is
a very dangerous return man. Mike Scifres is a very solid punter and Nate
Kaeding has been a mainstay among the best kickers in the league the last two
seasons.
Weaknesses: The Chargers had two main weaknesses in
2008. They weren’t very solid
against the run, at times. While
they ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed; part of that was because
Adrian Peterson recorded a 295-yard game against them. If you take that game out, they are
closer to the top 10. Still, in
the playoffs Maroney had 122 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Some weeks the Chargers were great
against the run. Other weeks they
got run over. They need to be a
little more consistent in that regard.
The bigger weakness is the same
thing it was entering last season with a couple wrinkles. Is Philip Rivers the real deal? He did not have a good follow up to his
Pro Bowl season. He went from
3,388 yards to 3,152 yards. He
went from 22 touchdowns to 21 touchdowns.
He went from 9 interceptions to 15. His completion percentage went from 61.7 to 60.2. He went from a rating of 92.0 to
82.4. He just didn’t improve in
any area. He also gained a
reputation for being a head case and yelling at fans. That was particularly evident in the Colts playoff
game. He needs to tone that down
and act like a solid professional and a leader of the team. He has too much talent for people to be
talking about that instead of his play.
The wrinkle in the Chargers offense
is all the injuries the Chargers are coming back from this season. Tomlinson had just two carries in the
AFC Championship Game and while his knee did not require surgery there are
still concerns when knee injury and LT are mentioned in the same sentence. That makes the loss of Turner to the
Falcons even more significant.
Hester was drafted out of LSU to team with Sproles to fill that
void. Gates has a toe problem that
has his status for the opener in doubt.
Rivers had an ACL injury that was expected to have six months of
recovery time. He is hopeful for
training camp.
It is never good to have one star
player coming off injury. To have
three injury question marks to the three best players on the offense is a huge
concern. The Chargers need to hope
these guys are ready by the opener.
Without those three being healthy the Chargers will struggle to win even
the weak AFC West.
Prediction: If the Chargers were in
another division, I would have more concerns. They couldn’t have started worse in 2007. They started 1-3 and they still won the
division by 4 games. The Broncos
have too many issues on run defense and at their skill positions they are still
not proven. The Raiders and Chiefs
have too many issues to list. The
Chargers have the second easiest schedule in the NFL and that will serve them
well if their players are a little slow to get back into the groove. They open with Carolina, at Denver, NY
Jets, at Oakland, and at Miami.
That is a schedule they should be able to maneuver even if a few players
are slow to get back. I could see
the Chargers being a strong second half team similar to last year.
What I do think the injuries
prevent the Chargers from doing is having a better record than the Jags and
Patriots. If they had everyone
healthy and ready to go, I probably would have had them with a better record
than the Patriots. They should
still win the AFC West, but still have to open up the playoffs in the first
round at home and travel in the second round. Based on my predictions that would be to New England. That could make advancing to the Super
Bowl a difficult task, which at this point is the only Charger obstacle not yet hurdled.
San Diego Chargers’ Record: 12-4 –
AFC West Divisional Champion; AFC #3 Seed
2)Denver
Broncos
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 320 (21st)
Points Allowed: 409 (28th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 114-142
(.445) (29th in NFL)
Strengths: The Broncos have a nice young nucleus
of offensive players. Jay Cutler
is only 25 years old. He passed
for 3,497 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first full year starting. He posted an 88.1 rating. Brandon Marshall had 102 receptions for
1,325 yards. He is only 24 years
old. Tony Scheffler had 549 yards
receiving and 5 touchdowns at the tight end spot. He is only 25 years old. Finally, with Travis Henry gone Selvin Young looks to take
over the number one spot. He turns
25 in October.
That gives the Broncos a nice
nucleus of young players to grow around.
They need to start getting younger on the offensive line, which they did
by selecting Ryan Claddy. The
Broncos zone-blocking scheme is being copied through out the league. A top 10 rushing offense is something
that is taken for granted in Denver.
Even with their running woes in 2007 they managed to finish 9th
in yards gained on the ground.
On defense, the Broncos finished in
the top 10 in passing yards allowed.
That is expected when the secondary features the corner duo of Bailey
and Bly. Lync h is starting to get
a little older, but still supports the run well. DJ Williams is a promising young linebacker that struggled
as the middle linebacker. He is
expected to play full time on the weak side, which will suit his strengths much
better. Boss Bailey was brought in
giving the Broncos great speed at the outside linebacker spot.
Finally, there is Mike
Shanahan. He has been the Broncos
headman since 1995. The only coach
with a longer tenure is Jeff Fisher, who replaced Jack Pardee at the end of the
1994 season. Shanahan has had only
two losing seasons since he arrived in Denver. The last time he had a losing record the Broncos bounced
back with 11 wins the following year.
Ted Sundquist was fired as the GM,
a role he held since 2002. Mike
Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings and a lot of experience. The Broncos are under pressure to win
this year. They have only been in
one AFC Championship Game since 1998.
The Broncos are expecting that he will turn out a winner soon. If the Broncos regress in 2008,
Shanahan’s job may be in jeopardy.
Weaknesses: Run defense. Plain and simple this kept the Broncos from being a playoff
team in 2007. They ranked 30th
in rushing yards allowed. The
front 4 could not keep anyone from ramming the ball down their throat. That really hurt Bailey and Bly who
anchored the 7th ranked pass defense, but had only 8
interceptions. That was 6 less
than the 14 interceptions Bailey and Williams combined for in 2006. If the Broncos can stop the run
better, Bailey and Bly should see their pick totals go up. If they can’t teams will keep the ball
on the ground to stay away from Denver’s potent playmaker duo.
They also need to get a better pass
rush from their front 4. Elvis Dumervil had 12.5 sacks. The next best individual sack total was
a mere four sacks. That just isn’t
going to get the job done.
That is another reason Bailey and Bly didn’t excel in 2007. Defensive backs rely on pressure from
the front seven to put pressure on the quarterback and force bad
decisions. The Broncos didn’t go
out and sign a marquee free agent on the defensive line. They have drafted a number of young
defensive linemen in the past few drafts.
They took the approach of hoping their younger players would improve and
brining in non household name talent.
The other problem that confronted
the Broncos was their redzone scoring.
The Broncos ranked 11th in yards gained, 13th in passing
yards gained, and 9th in rushing yards gained. The problem was that they ranked only
18th in rushing touchdowns and 16th in passing
touchdowns. That produced the 21st
ranked scoring offense.
The Broncos released Travis Henry
due to his off the field issues and still have some good backs in place. Selvin Young ranked 3rd
among rookie rushers and started only 8 games. Andre Hall showed signs of promise. Michael Pittman is a veteran that was
signed to give the team some experience.
One of these guys needs to emerge and the most probable candidate is
Young. A good running game and a
strong offense will go a long way to helping out the Broncos run defense stay
off the field and playing with a lead.
Finally, this team has a glaring
special teams weakness for the first time in many years. Jason Elam is no longer with the
team. Matt Pratter takes his place
and he has some big shoes to fill.
Elam had been with the Broncos since 1993. He won many close games for the Broncos with clutch kicks
last year. That was evident last
year. It remains to be seen if the
Broncos win some of the close games they have taken for granted for so many
years or if Pratter is not up to the task.
Prediction: The Broncos are moving
in the right direction. They had to
take a step back by going with the young quarterback in Cutler and leaving the
inconsistent experience of Jake Plummer.
While that means they have missed the playoffs for two straight years,
Cutler gives this team a chance to compete for the Super Bowl down the road,
something they never could have done with Plummer.
The problem is that the run defense
collapsed overnight. Denver went
from 12th against the run in 2006 to 30th in 2007. The Broncos really haven’t done
anything to fix that problem. In a
division with LT, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that is a risky
proposition. All the teams in this
division would love nothing more than to stay committed to the running game.
I think the Broncos will compete
with the Browns and Titans for the final playoff spot. I think Cutler, Marshall, and Young
will all have a big year. I also
think the Broncos have to many issues with their running game. I look for the Broncos to better
their 2007 record, but miss the playoffs by a game to the Browns. The Browns’ defense is nothing to write
home about, but their offense is a lot more explosive.
Denver Broncos’ Record: 9-7 – AFC
West 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3)Oakland
Raiders
07 Record: 4-12
Points Scored: 283 (23rd)
Points Allowed: 398 (26th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 112-142
(.438) (30th in NFL)
Strengths: The Raiders actually made a lot of
strides in 2007. The coaching
staff and players got along much better than they did in 2006. That is why it is surprising that Al
Davis would be fighting with his young coach, Lane Kiffin after his first year
on the job. While Al Davis is a
hard owner to predict, there is no way that a reasonable owner would have
expected more than 4-6 wins with the mess Kiffin took over. Kiffin had no NFL experience and was
taking over a team that had scored just 168 points the year before. While 283 points scored ranked only 23rd,
that was nine spots higher than 2006.
The Raiders won 4 games and were competitive in 6 others. That was done without the benefit of
their first round pick JaMarcus Russell.
He threw only 66 passes last season. I would say Kiffin got good results out of the offense and
the team in general.
The offense has the potential to be
even better in 2008. Darren
McFadden appears to be the real deal.
He has everything you could ask for. Speed, strength, and a good running style. Don’t expect him to have the year
Peterson had in 2007, simply because the Oakland line is nowhere near the
Minnesota line. McFadden is signed and will be in camp on day one. He has the talent to make an immediate
impact. If he is slow to start off
with, don’t forget that Justin Fargas had 1,009 yards rushing last season. The Raiders have a nice backfield in
place.
The Raiders tried to upgrade the
receiving core by signing Javon Walker to a $55 million dollar contract. That was the theme of the Raider
offseason, Just Spend Baby!!! I
think Walker will upgrade the receiving core, but remember he has had 2 knee
injuries since 2005, plus the Williams incident in Denver and the new Las Vegas
incident where he sustained serious injuries in a robbery. Plus, I have read reports that he
didn’t show up in the best of shape to Raider workouts in May, something that
was a disappointment given the money Oakland threw his way. How he does in 2008 is anything but a
certainty at this point.
The pass defense should be strong
again. The Raiders gave up the 8th
fewest passing yards in the NFL and the 4th fewest passing
touchdowns. Signing Wilson away
from the Giants and trading for Hall from the Raiders really gives a boost to
their secondary. They lost
Washington to the Ravens in a trade, but still appear to have a very strong
secondary in place.
Weaknesses: The Raiders success on pass defense is
somewhat of a mirage. Yes they
have some good talent there. But
when your team gives up the second most rushing yards in the NFL, the most
yards per attempt, and the most rushing touchdowns teams aren’t going to waste
their time throwing the ball. Keep
in mind that teams passed the ball the second fewest times against
Oakland. Even a team like Green
Bay that relied heavily on the pass was able to basically rest Favre coming off
an injury against the Cowboys when they played the Raiders. Favre threw the ball just 23 times in a
38-7 victory as Ryan Grant gashed them for a regular season high 29 carries and
156 yards.
If the Raiders are going to compete
in this division with LT, Denver’s running system, and Larry Johnson they have
to be able to stop the run. They
signed Thomas Kelly to a record contract for a defensive lineman, something
that was boggling to the mind.
Warren Sapp is gone from the fold this year. He was clearly on the downside of his career. Still, the Raiders really didn’t
address the defensive line, which is the most important part of the run
defense.
On offense, the passing game is
going to really struggle at times this year. Russell had only 66 attempts in 2007, so he is going to be
learning on the job.
I’ve already talked about Walker’s question marks. After him and Curry there isn’t a lot
of proven talent at the receiving core.
Zach Miller is a young emerging tight end. The first year of starting for a quarterback is always
a difficult chore. With a
below average receiving I expect Russell to show signs of greatness, but also
struggle quite a bit.
Prediction: Things are getting better for
Oakland. They are getting a young
nucleus of players on offense and are starting to bring some talent in on
defense. The Raiders and Jets were
the most active teams in free agency and fans are going to be excited that a
winning season is near.
They still have a few
problems. San Diego has a young
nucleus in place and is not ready to surrender the division to Oakland. Denver also has a young nucleus on
offense and while they have their own troubles on defense they have better
receivers, offensive line, and secondary.
It is going to be hard for the Raiders to break through that in 2008.
However, I only see the Chargers
window being open for a couple more seasons. Once LT turns 30 they are going to have some big question
marks. Denver could be going
through a coaching change if Shanahan doesn’t make it back to the
playoffs. Whoever can draft the
best between Kansas City and Oakland will be in an excellent position to shoot
toward the top of the division in 2009 or 2010. Oakland has a head start, because the hardest thing to find
is the quarterback. The Chiefs
don’t look like they have found their quarterback, which is worse than the
Raiders who are still determining if they have found theirs. As it stands right now though they will
play teams competitive, probably win some games against the likes of Baltimore,
Kansas City, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo, Atlanta, but still hover around the 6-10
mark.
Oakland Raiders’ Record:6-10 – AFC West 3rd Place;
No Playoffs
4)Kansas
City Chiefs
07 Record: 4-12
Points Scored: 226 (31st)
Points Allowed: 335 (14th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 116-140
(.453) (26th in NFL)
Strengths: The Chiefs were not
expected to do much after having an absolutely terrible preseason and Larry
Johnson holding out until the start of the season. They started off 4-3 and looked like they might be able to
compete in a division that saw San Diego and Denver struggle out of the
gates. Larry Johnson would get
hurt in game number eight, which they lost to the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs lost another eight games to
close the season.
One thing the Chiefs had was a
pretty nice pass defense last season.
They finished ranked 5th in passing yards allowed. They also finished 9th in
sacks. They were also 14th
in points allowed. However, you
can throw all that out the window, because their best defender, Jared Allen, is
no longer with the team. He led
the NFL with 15.5 sacks and was the team’s best defender. He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings
before the draft for draft picks.
The Chiefs went with a youth
movement and the result was one of the best drafts in the NFL. They should be better than 28th
against the run. Glenn Dorsey is
one of the best defensive tackle prospects to come out of college in a number
of years and he should immediately help them in that regard. Brandon Flowers should also help the
passing game from the cornerback position as he replaces Ty Law.
On offense many people expected the
Chiefs to struggle through the air in 2007. The Chiefs have some good targets that put up solid numbers,
despite their QB woes. Tony
Gonzalez is still among the most productive tight ends in the NFL. He led all tight ends in receiving
yards and had five touchdowns.
Dwayne Bowe finished five yards shy of a 1,000-yard season as a
rookie. He also had five
touchdowns.
They are hoping that Brandon Albert
can help improve the offensive line and that Jammal Charles can help give them
another back to spell Larry Johnson.
The Chiefs could have as many as three rookie starters (Dorsey, Albert,
and Flowers) as well as Charles, tight end Brad Cottam, and safety DeJaun
Morgan contributing as backups.
The Chiefs are in a full blown rebuilding project.
Weaknesses: Last year I said this
about Herm Edwards in my 2007 AFC West predictions, “It took Herman Edwards
exactly one year to ruin this offense.
After finishing in the top 5 for offensive yardage ever season of the
Vermeil era and first, first, second, and sixth in points, Herman Edwards
destroyed this offense. It dropped
to 15th in both yards and points in his first year with most of the same
players. As usual, the problem was
Herm Edwards refusal to embrace the passing offense, which ranked 22nd last
season.”
Kansas City fans weren’t happy
about that and I admit that I was wrong.
While the passing offense was not a strength when compared to other NFL
teams it was actually the strength of this offense. I don’t think a lot of people would have guessed the Chiefs
would finish 30th in rushing attempts, 32nd in rushing
yards, 31st in yards per carry, and tied for 31st in
rushing touchdowns.
Part of that was losing Larry
Johnson. When he is healthy he is
among the best backs in all of football.
Remember though that he is going to be 29 and had 5 games where he was
held under 60 yards in 2007.
The Chiefs did a horrible job of
preparing for life without Roaf and Shields and now they have a line that
cannot control the line of scrimmage.
Their inability to block is hampering the running game. They can’t get their quarterbacks into
favorable 3rd down situations.
When you combine those problems with Herm Edwards conservative offense
it has created a situation where this team can’t score any points.
The Chiefs tried to address that by
drafting Albert. He is going to
take a couple seasons for him to develop.
He may be moving from guard to tackle, which is a very difficult
transition for any player, much less a rookie. The Chiefs still have a lot of questions on the offensive
line.
It’s hard to predict the offense is
going to step up when you don’t even know which bad quarterback is going to
emerge. Huard played bad last year
and Croyle played worse. Croyle is
whom they want to start, as he was a 3rd round pick in 2006. There
gets to be a point where you cease to be a young quarterback and become a bad
quarterback instead. Year 3 is the
year that the NFL brain trust identifies as the year that young quarterbacks should
start to see things slow down and be able to make plays. If he doesn’t emerge the Chiefs are
going to have to think about taking a quarterback in the first round next year. Damon Huard is going to be 35 years old
and not the quarterback you want to build a young team around.
Prediction: I thought the Chiefs
had a great draft. In my opinion
it was the best in the NFL. That
said, I also maintain the Colts and Patriots could have had the best draft in
the NFL had they traded Brady or Manning.
The only reason the Chiefs had the best draft is they traded their best
player in Jared Allen. While that
may turn out to be a great move for the future, it doesn’t necessarily
translate into winning a lot of games the following year.
The Chiefs just don’t have a lot of
good things going for them now.
They used to have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They don’t anymore. Johnson used to be the second best back
in football. He is barely a top 10
back right now. Croyle and Huard
are below average quarterbacks.
The defense is rebuilding.
This is a team in transition.
I look for Gonzalez and Bowe to
have good seasons. I think Johnson
will have a rebound year. Not like
what we saw in 2005 and 2006, but 1,000 to 1,100 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. But what gains they make on offense are
going to be offset by a rebuilding defense that lost its best player. If they had Baltimore’s schedule I
wouldn’t pick them to win more than 3 games. The lack of strength in their division and their relatively
easy schedule should get them to 5 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Record:5-11 – AFC West 4th Place;
No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
This is my sixth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until
training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries
prior to the opening of training camp.
However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency
period and the draft. My plan is
to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in
the NFL. Here is my planned schedule. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest
rivalries in the NFL. The Bears,
Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises and each have a
storied history. The Minnesota
Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but have assimilated well into
the division’s rivalries. This
year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall of Fame QB in Green
Bay will not be taking the field.
The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre
became their quarterback. The
Packers won 7 divisional titles in his tenure with Green Bay and won over 60%
of their divisional games. Which
team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very
interesting development.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC
North.
1) Minnesota
Vikings
07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 365(15th)
Points Allowed: 311 (12th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in
NFL)
Strengths: The Minnesota Vikings were the best in
the league at running the football and they were the best in the league at
stopping the run.
Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous
season. He rushed for 1,341 yards
and 12 touchdowns despite only starting 9 games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Included in that mammoth total was a
296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for
rushing yards in a single game. He
also had a 224- yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be having more consistency and doing
better with 8 men in the box. In
his final 4 games he was held to 54 carries and a 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards
per carry. Part of that was his
coming back from injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more
than they did in the first half of the season.
Chester Taylor also had a fine
season. He rushed for 844 yards
and 7 touchdowns. Minnesota and
Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.
While Peterson and Taylor are good,
the line is one of the best in the business. McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line
and Birk is a tremendous center.
It is imperative that McKinnie not be suspended for his disorderly
conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami
courtroom.
On defense the Vikings may have the
best front 4 in football. Pat and
Kevin Williams are two mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely
well. New to the mix is Jared
Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they
sorely missed last season. That
should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd ranked pass defense.
On special teams Ryan Longwell is a
steady and reliable kicker. It
remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return
man.
Weaknesses: For as good as the Vikings were running
the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad passing the ball and
stopping the pass.
Let’s start with the pass
defense. It was ranked 32nd
last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to
help at the safety spot. Finally
they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of
play and Allen give them the pass rush they have lacked the pass defense should
be much improved in 2008. They
forced a lot of turnovers in 2007.
Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.
That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in
pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing
touchdowns. They got 3rd
receiver type production out of their number one and number two receivers. Darrell Bevell said this about the
Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings 3rd year QB, “"He's been
outstanding this offseason," Bevell said. "He's been in here watching,
studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he
needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."
Jackson is the key to the 2008
season for the Vikings and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their pass
game. Jackson progressed well in
year 2 and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs and possibly
advance to a Super Bowl they need him to progress even more.
Even if Jackson is improving, the
Vikings still have a weak receiving core.
Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven number one
receiver even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to
develop. Bobby Wade and Robert
Ferguson are journeymen players.
The Vikings have a lot of #2 and #3 receivers, but nobody that screams
dominant number one guy. Berrian
and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.
Prediction: I think the Vikings are
in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in
Peterson. The defensive line is
probably the best in the NFL. They
have a great offensive line. All
the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.
The question mark is the
quarterback and the passing game.
If Jackson were a proven commodity I would say the Vikings would be the
favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is they were 1st in rush offense and
defense a year ago and that got them 8-8.
The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far
as he takes them.
The schedule looks tougher than it
really is. The Vikings caught a
number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers
are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that
record. They drew no cold weather
sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally
struggle with. They face the
easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at
Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16 before closing with the NY Giants at
home. That bodes well for them
taking control of the division with a late season surge.
I look for the Vikings to make the
playoffs for the first time since 2004.
I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their
franchise history and their first divisional title since their NFC Central
crown back in 2000.
2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120
(.531) (11th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Packers had an unbelievably
balanced team in 2007. They
finished 4th in points scored and 6th in points
allowed. Favre had an impressive
season, finishing 2nd in the MVP race. Grant had the most yards of any back in the NFL not named
Tomlinson in the second half of the regular season. Mason Cosby finished 2nd in the Pro Bowl voting
at kicker. Other than at Chicago,
Ryan did a decent job of punting.
Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in
that regard.
There were few changes that needed to
be made and people assumed #4 would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008
and now one player leaving has created a lot of questions. It is hard to judge the Packers 2008
chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should
still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front 7 and the corners.
The Packers have an extremely deep
defensive line. Kampan is a great
pass rusher that supports the run well.
Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing
downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell and
others provide good depth.
The linebackers support the run
well, but they struggle to cover the pass and in particular the tight end. That should improve simply by not
facing Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey this season. Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule and they
need to improve in that area.
Barnett is always solid and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.
The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best
corner duo in the NFL. They are
extremely physical. While they
draw a lot of interference calls they make up for it with picks, stopping 3rd
downs, and wearing down receivers.
However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up and down first year starting, but ended up
being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December and was lights out in
the playoffs. He needs to play
like he did at the end of the year.
The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and
dime packages. They need players
to step up there.
All in all this is a very young
defensive unit other than the corners.
This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the
offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.
Weaknesses: It’s been a long time since we said the
offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Pack finds themselves in 2008. I don’t want to come across as having
the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year and I like a lot of things
the Packers have going on offense.
But I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the
Packers did. To assume a 4th
year QB that has yet to start a NFL game can just step in and keep the ball
rolling is not realistic. It is
not fair to Aaron Rodgers.
With regards to Rodgers, he may
very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packer fan I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to
say he is definitely going to succeed.
Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing. I like how he has progressed in making reads and his command
of the offense since his rookie year.
That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability. The injuries have been freakish in
nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all time most durable
starting quarterback’s backup.
Brian Braum is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense
as a rookie.
The receivers are solid and the
strength of the offense. They are
great athletes and ranked number one in yards after the catch. Driver is a
veteran presence, Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and Jones, Martin, and
Nelson all provide good depth. Lee
had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help
Rodgers make the transition.
Remember that the yards after the
catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of #4’s
ability to throw the deep ball.
Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect
Rodger’s deep ball. I expect those guys to be solid and put up good numbers,
but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were
in 2007.
The offensive line is
interesting. The tackles are good,
but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed and became a
strength of the team. Part of the
reason that the Packers could go so many 4 and 5 wide receiver sets is because
of #4’s command of the offense and his ability to get rid of the ball
quickly. The Packers surrendered
only 19 sacks, tied for 3rd in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more
4 and 5 receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at
receiver.
Finally, we get to the running
back. Who is the real Ryan
Grant? Is he the back that had 201
yards and 3 touchdowns against Seattle or the one that had 29 yards and 0
touchdowns against the Giants? 1
would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. 10 games are not enough to anoint a guy
a star running back. The Packers
are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers and
he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see
from defenses. He is perfect for
that zone-blocking scheme and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and 7-9
touchdowns.
Prediction: I find it entertaining
how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without
Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality
that the Packers have a great young team and Rodgers is just ready to step in
based on a good half against Dallas.
Since 1992 the Packers have
finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other
than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006.
In 2007 the Packers finished 2nd in passing yards, 4th
in points scored, 6th in touchdown passes, and 11th in
interceptions thrown.
This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Montana and his 16
touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring
from the Dolphins in 1999. Those
guys are All Time Greats, but were very average at the end of their
career. Even if you take out the
fact the Packers are losing an All-Time Great player and leader, they are still
losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important
position.
There are still a lot of good
players on the team. I don’t
expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show they can still win and
will be motivated to do well without #4.
There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.
Had Favre come back, I would have
thought 10-6 or 11-5 would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule.
The Packers have a lot of tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at
New Orleans, Indy, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. I think you are going to see games where they amaze and
games where they really struggle.
A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is a
realistic expectation. They should
be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009 if their young players continue to
grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions
at the offensive tackles and cornerback.
Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8 –
NFC North 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) Detroit
Lions
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 346 (16th)
Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117
(.543) (10th in NFL)
Strengths: The Lions had a great passing attack
under passing guru Mike Martz. He
is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in
the division and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald
give him a lot of weapons. Roy
Williams is a solid target and Calvin Johnson is a freak and should have a much
better 2nd year now that he has experience and is healthy. The Lions should be able to throw the
ball and put points up on the board.
Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked 2nd in 2006 and 1st in 2007
in that regard. He also has to
take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.
This was a team that started the
2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7.
When they were winning their passing offense was not the only thing
carrying them. They were good at
forcing turnovers early in the season.
The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL,
which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished 9th in sacks with 37. That made up for their 31st
ranked pass defense. Fernando
Bryant is no longer with the team.
Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that
regard.
Shaun Rodgers is gone from the
defensive line. It will be
interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd
in the NFL with him. Corry Redding
and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but never
really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but
need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks there wasn’t
much this defense did right in 2007.
Jason Hanson is still the kicker
and a mainstay in Detroit. He has
been with the Lions since 1992 and is considered one of the more reliable
kickers in the NFL.
Weaknesses: This team really lacked a running game. They ranked 32nd in rushing
attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that. Keep in mind that he coached Marshall
Faulk and Steven Jackson in St Louis.
While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful
backs in his system. Part of the
Lions inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor
offensive line, and defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.
The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones
and TJ Duckett and retained Tatum Bell.
They drafted Kevin Smith in the 3rd round. They are also instituting a
zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL. The Lions still figure to be weak
running the ball in 2008. Zone
blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good nor does it make bad running
backs great. I watched Green Bay
make that transition and it took over a year to see results. Bell had good games in a zone-blocking
scheme in Denver. He needs to step
up his production in 2008. It will
be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split
time.
The offensive line needs to improve
on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007.
That is one reason why the Lions throw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people
down field. When you finish last
in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and
give up the 3rd most sacks there aren’t many positives to look at on
the offensive line. That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus
in the first round. He will be
asked to step in immediately.
On defense they have to hope the
people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their
front 7 to stop the run and create pressure. Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in
Denver. Until the Lions improve on
stopping the run it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out
of their secondary.
Prediction: The Lions were a team
that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that
team would crash in the second half of the season and they did just that. Matt Millen has proven time and time
again that he cannot draft well and that he is unable to put his coaches in a
position to succeed. There are
good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.
The Lions have a good passing
offense and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take
pressure of that offense. Their
receivers will cause problems for team and I expect a decent offensive showing
from the Lions.
What I also expect is they will
struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to
give them fits with their defense.
Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in
division games. What it amounts to
is Kitna predicting 10 wins and reality delivering another 6 or 7 win season
and another year of missing the playoffs.
Detroit Lions’ Record: 6-10 – NFC North 3rd Place;
No Playoffs
4) Chicago
Bears
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 348 (16th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120
(.531) (11th (t) in NFL)
Strengths:The Bears have always had offensive
issues. What they traditionally
relied on was a very strong defense.
In 2005 they finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd
in yards allowed. In their
2006 Super Bowl season they finished 3rd and 5th in those
areas. They have been one of the
best teams at forcing turnovers.
That has allowed the less than stellar offense to work with a short
field and control the clock with the run.
That never panned out last
season. The Bears offense was
still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th
in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher
was hurt and did not play up to his standards. Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.
The defensive line is still
strong. Tommy Harris is a
fantastic defensive tackle. Alex
Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a
replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.
The linebackers are still great
too. Urlacher is one of the best
in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy; as he did sign the long-term
deal he had been looking for the last couple seasons. He is a 3-time Pro Bowler.
In the secondary Brown, Tillman,
Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning and McBride give the Bears a number of people
for coverage and making big plays.
They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that they will be able to force turnovers,
which is a must for a Cover 2 team.
That will help offense produce enough in short field situations to give
the Bears defense leads and rest.
If that happens there is still enough defensive talent to carry this
team to the playoffs.
Last, but certainly not least are
the special teams. Devin
Hester. He is the Bears best
weapon at this point. After just 2
seasons he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the
NFL. He makes a lot of big plays
in the return game and as a wide receiver. The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver
in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special teams
specialist. Finally, Robbie Gould
is a solid kicker. The Bears
probably have the best special teams in the NFL.
Weaknesses: The problem is there just isn’t a lot
of talent on offense. As bad as it
was last year it is worse in 2008.
That starts with the quarterbacks.
Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown they are capable of
leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as
a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their 06 Super Bowl
run. They need one of them to
emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will. The Bears did nothing to sign a
quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.
Then we get to receiver. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin
Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis.
None of those guys are acceptable #3 receivers on average passing teams
at this point. It is either possession
receivers or home run hitters.
There is no receiver that is a complete package in the group. The fact that two of them must start is
not good news for the passing game.
Clark and Olson are quality tight ends and the best targets this team
has in the passing game.
Then there is the offensive
line. Fred Miller was released
this summer at tackle. They hope
Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are
all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster
at 29. The line is starting
to get old and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those
positions. Fred Miller was not the
only thing holding that line back.
Finally, there is the running back
spot. Benson has been waived after
2 arrests in 5 weeks. Adrian
Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out below average backfield. As a whole, the Bears offense is among
the most unproven in the NFL.
There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team
strength. It should finish among
the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.
Prediction: I know Bears fans will
point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average
offense. That they went 11-5 and
won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense in 2005. The feeling in Chicago is that defense
wins championships and the Bears have the defense.
I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have
started to get older. Urlacher is
starting to have health issues and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two this defense becomes
average very quickly. Last season
the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team and they really struggled as a team
to consistently win. The Bears
first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17 after they had been eliminated from
playoff contention.
This year the offense is even
worse. Benson, Berrian, and
Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears
have. Griese is no longer around
if Grossman struggles. There are a
lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they
were in 2005 and 2006.
The Bears get a very tough
schedule. The Colts, Jags, and
Titans all have tremendous defenses.
The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are traditionally tough on
defense. That is half their
schedule that they may not score more than 10-14 points per game against. The defense will keep the Bears in
those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many
victories.
The Bears window has closed in my
opinion and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some
younger pieces on defense. Only
time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.
Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11 – NFC North 4th Place;
No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
