I present to you my fourth regular season letter of the 2008
season. I appreciate feedback of
things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list
something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player
in one newsletter would be impossibility.
I hereby present to you a recap of the opening weekend in the NFL.
Standings
AFC
EastNFC
East
1. Buffalo (4-0) 1.
New York Giants (3-0)
2. New England (2-1) 2.
Washington (3-1)
3. NY Jets (2-2) 3.
Dallas (3-1)
4. Miami (1-2) 4.
Philadelphia (2-2)
AFC
SouthNFC
South
1. Tennessee (4-0) 1.
Carolina (3-1)
2. Jacksonville (2-2) 2.
Tampa Bay (3-1)
3. Indianapolis (1-2) 3.
New Orleans (2-2)
4. Houston (0-3) 4.
Atlanta (2-2)
AFC
NorthNFC
North
1.Pittsburgh (3-1) 1.Green
Bay (2-2)
2. Baltimore (2-1) 2.Chicago
(2-2)
3.Cleveland (1-3) 3.
Minnesota (1-3)
4.Cincinnati (0-4) 4.
Detroit (0-3)
AFC
WestNFC
West
1. Denver (3-1) 1.
Arizona (2-2)
2. San Diego (2-2) 2.
San Francisco (2-2)
3. Oakland (1-3) 3.
Seattle (1-2)
4. Kansas City (1-3) 4.
St Louis (0-4)
MVP of the Week:
When you’ve played as well and as long as Brett Favre has it becomes
quite a challenge to do something you have never done before. Brett Favre managed to do that by
having his first 6-touchdown pass game of his career. He was 24 for 34 with 289 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1
pick. At running back Larry
Johnson had 28 carries for 198 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns as the Chiefs got
their first win of the year. At
receiver it is hard not to go with Coles who had 8 catches for 105 yards and 3
first half touchdowns. Muhsin Muhammad had a great game too with 8 catches for
147 yards and 1 touchdown.
Loser of the Week: Ryan Grant and Donald Driver were very
disappointing in the Packers loss.
Driver had 1 catch for 8 yards.
Grant had 15 carries for 20 yards.
The Packers need to get more out of their skill players not named
Jennings if they want to win tough games.
Kurt Warner is a surprising name to put on the list. He was 40 for 57 with 472 yards and 2
touchdowns. Those are usually
numbers that make the MVP of the Week.
Problem is he had 3 fumbles lost and 3 interceptions. That is very poor for a veteran and
former MVP. Finally, Marion Barber
has to do better than 8 carries for 26 yards. He needs more touches and he needs to be more productive
with the touches he got.
Whenever Dallas gets away from running Barber, there offense
suffers. They need to learn
lessons from the Giants playoff loss, not repeat them.
Game of the Week: There were a lot of good games this
week. Washington and Dallas played
a fantastic game. Washington had a
20-17 lead in the 4th quarter.
They added a field goal with 10:48 left in the game. On their next drive they proceeded to
take a 6-minute plus drive for another field goal with 3:22. That drive not only exhausted precious
time, but also all of Dallas’s timeouts.
Dallas then scored a touchdown with 1:42 left in the game, but did not
recover the onside kick. Honorable
mention to the Jacksonville and Houston contest, which was won by a Scobee
field goal in overtime. Another Honorable mention to the Monday Night Game,
which Pittsburgh won over Baltimore in OT.
The Bay of Pigs:
It would have to be that Cleveland and Cincinnati game. It improved in the 4th
quarter to finish 20-12 with Cleveland winning the game. However, Cleveland trailed 6-3 at the
end of three quarters. Part of the
problem was Carson Palmer being injured.
That prevented Cincinnati from effectively passing the ball. This is a tough group to justify. These teams are still a long way from
being competitive.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): The worse game
time decision I saw was Andy Reid’s decision to run the ball 4 straight times
at the Chicago defense at their goal line trailing 24-20. You would think McNabb on play action
or at least one pass would have made sense. Instead they turned the ball over on downs, couldn’t stop
the Bears to get the ball back with meaningful time, and cost themselves a
better chance to win the game. The
Eagles are not a smash mouth power running team and the Bears are great at
stopping that. Why he didn’t even
pass it once is beyond me.
The second decision I would question had nothing to do with
the games. Why did Arizona choose
to stay East? It seemed like a
solid decision at the time. The
Cardinals stayed on the East Coast to prevent having to travel from Washington
to Arizona, back to Arizona, and back to New York. Instead of looking like they prepared for the game they
looked like they took a vacation.
They had 34 points scored on them in the 2nd quarter and
trailed 34-0 at the half. Looking
back, you have to wonder if the decision to stay east was worth taking a team
out of their normal preparation routine.
Based on this poor performance I would say it wasn’t.
Injury Report: There were a couple scary injuries this
week. Boldin took a vicious hit
from Eric Smith in the final minutes of the Jets & Cardinals game. He appears to be fine and his status is
up in the air for next week.
Andre Frazier was carted off the field on the opening
kickoff of the Monday Night Game.
The severity of his spine injury was not known at the time I typed my
letter.
Aaron Rodgers injured his shoulder against the
Buccaneers. It is a shoulder
sprain and not a separated shoulder as initially feared. His status is questionable for next
week.
The Texans lost starting safety C. C. Brown with a broken
arm for the season. That is a big
blow to a secondary already playing without Robinson.
Finally, the Steelers are losing running backs fast. Parker is out already with a sprained
knee. Rashard Mendenhall fractured his shoulder in the Monday Night game and
will be placed on IR.
Overall Impressions of Week 1:
1) Brett Favre’s big day – What do you say about a guy who
you think has done everything there is to do in the NFL, yet goes out and
accomplishes a career first? Favre
had thrown for 5 touchdowns with Green Bay 3 times. The most recent was a September 27, 1998 game at Carolina. In fact, the last time he threw 4
touchdown passes was a Monday Night Game against Carolina in October of the
2005 season. So to say that 6
touchdown passes was a surprise would be an understatement.
Favre had a number of things going for him. The Arizona defense was very
unimpressive. There were a lot of
plays with Jet receivers wide open.
The Cardinals turned the ball over 7 times. That will help the offense’s cause. Finally, he was sharp and put some
perfectly thrown balls in tough places.
Other than a terrible first quarter interception he was on the
money. When you combine the three
you get 6- touchdown passes.
It’s easy to get caught up in the moment with this. Last year McNabb had 381 yards
and 4 touchdowns in a 56-21 victory over Detroit. Detroit finished the season as 31st ranked
passing yard defense and touchdown passes allowed. Philly never played a game like that again. They scored over 30 points only two
more times that year. The Eagles
finished the season with the 17th ranked scoring offense. McNabb would have 15 touchdowns in his
other 13 starts.
Favre had the right attitude after the game. He was happy about the win, excited
about the accomplishment, but also realized it was only one game. He said its too early to book playoff
or Super Bowl tickets. He’s been
through enough battles to realize that it only gets harder. That is why you want a guy like that on
your team. He never gets too high
with the highs or too low with the lows.
He keeps good and bad games in perspective. He will help keep this team grounded and working toward
getting better on offense.
Still, many people were beginning to question whether he
could still play or whether he made the right decision to comeback. What this performance does do is
validate that he can still play quarterback in the NFL at a high level. The Oak Grove High School
quarterback will not have to worry about Favre coming back to Mississippi
midseason to take his job back.
Every time people start asking those questions is when Favre
comes up with some of his best performances. It was nice to see an athlete who has had such a difficult
off-season have another performance for the ages.
2) Washington’s Upset of Dallas – Washington is a team that
has showed me a lot in the early part of the season. They were probably the worst looking offense in the NFL after
the first week of the season in which they scored 7 points on the Giants. They have responded by scoring 26.3
points per game in their 3 game winning streak.
Jason Campbell has been terrific. He has 6 touchdowns, 0 picks, 878 yards passing, and a 102.2
QB rating. For a young quarterback
learning a new system that is quite an accomplishment. Santana Moss has been reborn with
27 catches for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Portis is doing well in the running game. He has 369 yards rushing, 4.3 yards per
carry, and 3 rushing touchdowns.
The Redskins are in a terribly tough spot. The division is a combined 11-4, with
three of the losses being division games.
3-1 would have them as the division favorite in the NFC North or
West. In the East they are a game
out of last place. 8-8 or 9-7 could be good for last place in the NFC East this
year.
The schedule is about to take a turn for the better. They play @ Philly, which is a tough
game. Then they host St Louis,
Cleveland, and travel to Detroit. They could easily be 6-2 at the half point of the
season.
They still have some tough games in the second half of the
season. They will play the
division again. They have
Pittsburgh. Winning at Dallas was
a game that many didn’t expect them to get. If they can beat Philly next week they will have gone 2-1 on
the road in the division and be set up very well for the 2nd half of
the season.
3) Is the Gold Rush Back? – The phrase that pays for 49er
fans is that the Gold Rush is Back.
At 2-2 the 49ers are tied for 1st place in the weak NFC
West. Do the 49er fans know
something that we don’t know?
I pegged the 49ers for 4-12 this year. Seeing they have won 2 games already
and have yet to play St Louis it seems apparent that they will surpass
that. JT O’Sullivan has played
very well to start the year.
O’Sullivan has 68 completions in 111 attempts for 962 yards, 4
touchdowns, 3 picks, and a 90.0 QB rating. That is a surprise to me, even with Mike Martz there. Those are numbers the 49ers haven’t seen
since the Jeff Garcia days. Frank
Gore has also started strong with 369 yards rushing through his first 4
games.
The problem with the 49ers has surprisingly been their
defense. Those were thought to be
the strengths of the team.
The defense ranks 21st in points per game allowed. They rank 25th in total
yards allowed, 22nd in pass yards allowed, and 23rd in
rushing yards allowed.
That is what costs them their games against the Cardinals
and Saints. Those offenses were
able to put points up on the board.
Seattle also scored 30 points in their 33-30 OT loss to the 49ers. Seattle had no receivers that
game. San Fran’s only impressive
game was against Detroit. Join the
club. Everyone looks impressive
against Detroit.
The 49ers are no longer the push over squad they have been
known for the last 5 years. Their
offense has been consistently among the worst in the NFL. Credit a lot of that to Alex Smith not
being lost in a new system every year.
O’Sullivan was chosen for this job in large part on his previous
experience in Martz’s scheme.
Since O’Sullivan has become the starter the team is moving the ball well
and the offense as a whole is starting to hold up its end of the bargain. The 49ers have spent a lot of free
agent dollars and draft picks on upgrading the defense. If that can come around they will win
more games.
If they were in the NFC East they would clearly be the last
place club. In the NFC West things
are up for grabs. The Rams are a
lost cause. The Seahawks may
rebound if they can get some healthy receivers. The Cardinals looked sharp in their first two games before
losing the next two games.
We’ll start to learn a little bit more about the 49ers over
the next 4 weeks. 3 of their 4
games are at home. They host
New England and Philly, travel to New York Giants, and head home to play
Seattle. If they are still 4-4 or
5-3 after those 4 games I’ll start to have a little more faith. While the 49ers will probably do no
better than .500, that could still keep them in the division hunt for much of
the season.
4) The horrific St Louis Rams – St Louis continues to
struggle beyond belief. This has
to be the worst defense in the NFL.
The record for points allowed in a single NFL season is 533 points,
which was surrendered by the 2-14 Baltimore Colts back in 1981. The Rams are on pace to allow 588
points in 2008. If you go back to
last year they have allowed 38.4 points per game in their last 7 games. I have watched a lot of bad defensive
football. The 2005 Rams and 2001
Colts are the most recent bad defenses that come to mind. The Dolphins were awful the first
8 games of the 2007 season.
However, if the Rams keep this up their 2008 unit will take the cake.
That is what is so puzzling about the Bulger benching. He plays on a team that is allowing
38.4 points per game in its last 7 games.
Jackson had 159 yards rushing in his first 3 games. The offensive line has given up 13
sacks through the first 4 games.
What do you expect him to do?
Granted, 52 for 89 with 519 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 picks, and a 73.2 QB
rating does not scream keep my job.
But that team is not losing because of Marc Bulger. Joe Montana, John Elway, or Dan Marino
in their prime couldn’t win with this team.
Plus, why bring in Trent Green? He’s a 15-year veteran that is 38 years old. He hasn’t won a game since 2006. Are you building for the future? Bulger is 31-years old. If you aren’t going to bring in a young
guy to groom for the future keep Bulger in and let him work through this
mess. The team has no future
with Green other than as a back up.
Obviously management had some of the same concerns. Linehan
became the first coaching casualty on Monday. He has an 11-25 record in 2 & ¼ seasons. The team is getting progressively
worse. The Rams can’t score
points, can’t stop other teams from scoring, and are poorly prepared. It is debatable whether everyone is
playing hard.
He had clearly lost the team. Defensive Coordinator Jim Haslett has been picked to turn
this disaster around. The offensive
nucleus still has a few years left in it.
If the Rams can find someone that can bring talent into the organization
and properly motivate and teach these guys the Rams could be competitive in a
few years. Right now all they are
competing for is the first pick in the draft.
5) Rodgers comes back to Earth – It’s funny how the message
boards have shifted a little bit.
After the first 3 games the Packers had clearly made the better
decision. Rodgers had yet to throw
a pick, Favre’s Jets were 1-2, and the Packers were in control of the weak NFC
North. Then Favre threw 6
touchdown passes and Rodgers suffered 3 picks and a shoulder injury. Chicago wins to pull into a tie with
the Pack at 2-2. Suddenly, Ted
Thompson is an ####.
I am pulling for the Favre trade to work out for Favre and
the Jets. I though Packer
management botched that and have addressed that on a number of occasions. However, I’d be a hypocrite if I said
that 2 games were too soon to tell, but 4 games the picture was clear. It is very early. Rodgers will play well again and
Favre’s isn’t going to throw 6 touchdowns per week going forward.
I’m not going to get into comparisons between the Jets and
Packers. They are irrelevant. Here are 3 problems with Rodgers that I
have seen early in the season.
a) Way too many hits – Rodgers has taken 9 sacks, which is
tied for 10th most in the NFL.
The problem is that Favre took only 15 sacks all of last year. It’s not just the sacks he’s taking,
but all the hits he’s taking. I
said that durability was going to be a major concern for him in the preseason
and my fear has been realized 4 games into the season. He has to do a better job of standing
upright.
Not taking hits is a product of having a quick release,
staying around the pocket, and familiarity with an offense. While Rodgers is in his 3rd
year in the system it is his first year playing in it. If Rodgers can’t stop taking hits he
will miss games later in the season.
The Packers can’t make the playoffs if he’s not in there. Their backups have no meaningful NFL
experience and are not ready for primetime.
b) Too much short passing – Rodgers is averaging 7.6 yards
per attempt, which ranks 9th in the NFL. Many people would say this is an unfair criticism. The problem is that in the all of the
downfield passes are going to one player, Jennings. The exception to that would be the Detroit game. Again, everyone looks good against
Detroit.
The Packers are running the screens, slants, and dump plays.
The only one getting any production is Jennings. His 482 yards receiving accounts for 50.2 % of the Packers
passing yards. Driver is second on
the team with 16 catches for 174 yards.
Jennings is averaging 19.3 yards per catch. Everyone else is around 10-12 yards per catch.
That is a deviation from last year. Last year the Packers had 4 receivers
at 575 yards or over and had 4 players over 12 yards per catch. Most of the players were in the 12-15
yard per catch range. No offense
can consistently succeed relying on one weapon. This offense has to get more than Jennings involved in the
passing game, particularly downfield.
If they don’t they will continue to struggle.
c) Horrible 3rd quarter adjustments – This is as
much McCarthy’s fault as Rodgers.
They both have to adjust better to what the defense is doing coming out
of the locker room. Green Bay has
scored 20 points in the 3rd quarter this year. 7 of those points were on a punt
return. Teams are seeing this
short passing game and making adjustments at half time. The Packers are running the same thing
and their offense is bogging down.
In fact, they haven’t been very good in the 4th
quarter either. Against Tampa Bay
their only scoring was a Woodson touchdown. Against Dallas they got 7 points on a QB sneak late in the
game trailing 27-9. Minnesota only
allowed one offensive touchdown in the fourth quarter of that game. That was generated on Grant’s only long
run of the year. Even against
Detroit 14 of the 24 points 4th quarter points scored were
defensive.
What that tells me is that the Packers are trying to run the
ball and short pass the ball every play and that they think teams can’t stop
that even if they know its coming.
The reason teams couldn’t stop that last year was because teams were
scared to death of Favre throwing a 50-yard strike and were giving the
underneath stuff. Rodgers doesn’t
have that type of credibility.
As teams learn the Packers aren’t going downfield to anyone
but Jennings they are adjusting.
McCarthy has to do a better job of adjusting to the defenses and call
plays to counteract. If
quarterbacking in the NFL were just throwing 3 yards slants there would be more
people doing well. You can’t win
with that conservative of an offense.
Ask Herm Edwards how that works.
The good news for the Packers is that there are only 4 games
that have passed and as long as Rodger’s shoulder is okay they can continue to
improve in these areas. Four
games are too early to pass judgment, but it is early enough to make some
observations. From what I have
seen so far reports of the Packers being better off without Favre were a little
premature to say the least.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred’s 2008 record:37-22
1) Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0): The Seahawks really need this
game. Branch and Engram appear to
be back in the mix after missing the first 3 games with injuries. Burress is suspended for this game,
which is a big blow for the Giants offense. If the game were in Seattle I might pick the Seahawks to
steal a game here. I think the
Seahawks are not very tough on the road and I like the Giants defense right
now. I think Jacobs does just
enough, Manning makes just enough plays, and the defense makes just enough
stops to get a tough victory at home.
Winner: New York Giants
2) Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2): This is another
tough game to pick, due to the quality of both teams and the Westbrook
injury. In the two games where
Brian Westbrook was healthy the Eagles scored 31 and 37points. Since got injured they have scored 15
and 20 points. His ankle is still
bothering him and it is unknown whether he will play against Washington. Westbrook is a special player that does
so many things both running and receiving. If he were 100% I would like Philly. With as good as Washington is playing
right now and how inconsistent the Philly defense has played I am going to go
with Washington. I look for Portis
to have another nice day and for Campbell to continue his hot start. Winner: Washington
3) Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1): This is one of the more
interesting games of the week.
Tampa seems to find ways to hang in there and win games that they
probably shouldn’t. Denver is
coming off a tough week in which they lost at Kansas City. Denver has a great offense. They are 2nd in points
scored, 1st in yards gained, 1st in first downs gained, 2nd
in passing yards, and 12th in rushing yards. That’s a recipe for success. The problem is that they don’t even
have an average defense. They are
31st in points allowed, yards allowed, and passing yards
allowed. They are 26th
in rushing yards allowed. The only
defense that is worse is St Louis, which is 32nd in both points and
yards allowed. Cutler has thrown
at least one pick in 3 straight games.
I think Tampa Bay has a recipe to win in Denver. Graham is a physical back that can
pound the Denver run defense, but they need to get better play out of
Griese. Griese has 6 picks in his
last 2 games, has yet to complete 60% of his passes, and has a QB rating of
62.5. I could go either way with
this, so I went with the home team.
Denver always seems to play well at home. While Graham will have a big day, I think Cutler makes more
plays that Griese and the Broncos bounce back from a terrible performance in
Kansas City. Winner:Denver
4) Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2): Pittsburgh’s
offense looks lost right now. They
have multiple running backs hurt right now. Big Ben is taking a lot of sacks. The defense is playing well, but they need to offense to
step up to the plate. The Steelers
went 8 quarters between offensive touchdowns. From Ward’s 2nd quarter touchdown against
Cleveland to Holmes’s 3rd quarter touchdown against Baltimore; the
Steelers have looked lost on offense. Jacksonville hasn’t exactly blown the doors off the
barn either, but they are getting more offensive production in the last few
weeks. I like the Jags to protect
their home field and win a very physical game. Winner: Jacksonville
5) Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2): New Orleans runs
into trouble when they can’t get balance in their play calling. That is true for a lot of teams, but it
has been a glaring issue for the Saints.
Against San Fran they passed 35 times and ran 32 times. Against Tampa Bay they passed the ball
32 times and rushed the ball 27 times.
Those two games resulted in wins.
On the flip side Against Washington they passed 33 times and ran the
ball 19. Against Denver they
passed 48 times to 25 rushes. The
problem in this game is going to be that Minnesota stops the run so well that
New Orleans is going to have to stay committed to running the ball like Fisher,
Fox, and McCarthy did, even when it isn’t working. I don’t think Sean Payton is patient enough to do that. The other concern is that the Saints
have the 22nd ranked run defense. That bodes well for Adrian Peterson. Brees will be able to put up some
passing yards in this game, but I like the Vikings to go on the road and win
this game. Winner: Minnesota
and the rest…
6) Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1): I know Kansas City
won their first game, but Carolina can actually stop the run and play
defense. Denver can’t. I like the Panthers to prevail in this
game and Kansas City’s offense to comeback to earth. Winner:Carolina
7) Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3): Detroit has to show me something before I pick them to
win. I see Kitna throwing some
picks, the Bears gaining some yards, and the Lions losing another game. Winner: Chicago
8) Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2): It’s hard to pick this
game when I don’t know if Rodgers is going to start. The Pack can’t stop the run right now and Turner is off to a
good start. He leads the NFL in
rushing yards. If Rodgers can’t go
the Falcons won’t have to worry about falling behind and can establish the
run. If Rodgers plays I think he
makes enough plays to win the game.
If he doesn’t play the Pack will probably lose. I say he toughs it out and makes the
start. I’m taking Green Bay, but I
think it will be closer than people think. Winner:Green
Bay
9) San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2): Unless Ronnie Brown
scores 5 more touchdowns I don’t see the Dolphins winning this game. They will play competitive, but San
Diego wins going away. LT is
heating up and should have a nice day.
Winner:San Diego
10) Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1): Baltimore is exceeding
expectations. The fact they took
the Steelers to OT surprised me.
That said Tennessee is playing great football and Baltimore isn’t going
to score a lot of points in this game either. Winner: Tennessee
11) Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3): Houston has been a major disappointment
to start the season. I wasn’t
thinking playoffs, but I expected them to show better. Jacksonville was their first good
game. I like the Colts to
get back to .500 this week. The
bye came at a great time for Indy with all their early season injuries. Winner: Indianapolis
12) Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2): I think Arizona’s NY disaster was a
blip. They aren’t going to play
that bad all year. They aren’t
going to turn the ball over 7 times.
They picked the wrong week to get sloppy with the ball against an
offense that had a lot of prove.
Buffalo has been good early, but their opponents have a combined record
of 4-10. Oakland and St Louis are
a mess, Seattle was really injured, and Jacksonville was a good win. The line is even right now, and I would
expect Buffalo to be favored by game time. I think Arizona rebounds from that loss and upsets
Buffalo. Buffalo is playing on the
road for a second straight week, which is a tough proposition in the NFL. Winner: Arizona
13) New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2) – You give the
Hood 2 weeks to prepare and he usually comes through. New England is 6-2 under Darth Hood coming off a bye. The average score has been 26.9 to
11.9. The only years the Patriots
lost were 2002 and 2000. Those
happen to be the only two years the Patriots missed the playoffs. I like the Patriots to bounce back in
this game. They’ve had 2 weeks to
think about that Miami stomp down and San Fran isn’t tearing up the defensive
side of the ball. New England
won’t score 49 points like we might have predicted at the beginning of the
year, but they’ll score enough to win.
Winner: New England
14) Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1): Palmer is still iffy and Dallas will be
looking to take out the frustrations on somebody. That lucky somebody is the 0-4 Bengals. Dallas wins in a blowout. Winner: Dallas
Byes:Cleveland, Oakland, New York Jets, and St. Louis
That’s all for this week. Enjoy the opening week of football and I look forward to
reading your comments this week.
It’s never too early to start looking at teams that have really set themselves up well and teams that have really buried themselves into a deep hole. Remember 0-2 or 2-0 doesn’t guarantee anything. In 2007 the San Diego Chargers started 1-3 before rebounding to an 11-5 season and AFC Championship birth. The New York Giants started off 0-2, yet rebounded to finish 10-6 and win the Lombardi Trophy. Meanwhile the 49ers started off 2-0 on route to a 5-11 season.
Still it is possible to set yourself up for a good season or set yourself up for a disaster by how you play the first couple weeks of the season. The Cowboys, Packers, Colts, and Patriots were the four teams that earned first round byes in 2007. All of them started the season 4-0.
What you have to remember is that with only 16 games each game is a big deal. We have already played 12.5% of the NFL schedule. When 12-4 is sometimes not good enough to secure homefield you can't afford to start the season 0-2 and expect to be hosting home playoff games. Every loss hurts. A bad September can ruin your entire season. Just ask the New Orleans Saints who never really recovered from an 0-4 start last year.
I decided to make a list of 10 teams. I divided them up into three areas. Teams that have set themselves up to have a good season, teams that have really dug themselves a hole, and teams that have started off slow, but could rebound. Here is what I came up with:
Early Season Winners:
1) Green Bay Packers (2-0) - It doesn’t get any better than this. The Packers were worried about how their team would respond with a new quarterback under the biggest microscope the NFL has ever seen. Not only have they played well, but also Rodgers has looked great. Both wins being in the division is a huge plus. To have one third of your division games played and be 2-0 is a big deal. They have an early 2 game lead on Minnesota and Detroit and a 1 game lead on Da Bears.
Green Bay gets a tough game against Dallas next week. After that they play the @ Bucs, Falcons, and @ Seahawks. Those games won’t be cupcakes, but none of those teams are among the elite teams early in the season. The Packers have an excellent chance of heading into their October 19th game with the Colts sitting at 5-1 or 4-2 with no losses in the division. That would be an excellent scenario for a team many thought would be chaos.
Green Bay is not guaranteed a playoff season. They have a very poor backup quarterback situation with two rookies. Even New England who lost Brady had a backup that had been on their team for three seasons. Ryan Grant has been slowed to start the season. They will need him to be healthy. The Pack couldn’t have scripted this start any better. Great start for the Green and Gold.
2) Denver Broncos (2-0) – Same situation as the Packers. They knocked off their biggest rival in the division in San Diego. They also beat Oakland. 2-0 in the division is a very nice start to the season. Jay Cutler is playing lights out and Brandon Marshall looks to be in fine form. The back by committee is working well and they have found their second receiver in Royal. The one concern is the defense, but the season has gone very well early in the year.
The Broncos play three of their next four games at home. They play New Orleans, @ Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville. Other than New Orleans none of the other teams have very explosive offenses at this point. The schedule sets up well for Denver continuing their early season success. 5-1 or 4-2 with a 3-0 record in the division is very realistic.
3) Arizona Cardinals (2-0) – Arizona had to start fast with San Fran and Miami on the schedule and they did just that. Warner looks like the MVP quarterback from St Louis. Fitzgerald and Boldin are both playing very well. The defense is playing well. Things look good in the Desert.
The schedule is a little tougher for the Cardinals in the next four weeks. They play @ Washington, @ NY Jets, Buffalo, and Dallas. Arizona could realistically go 3-1 in that span or 1-3. They would seem to be a big underdog to Dallas and the other games could go either way. It’s important that they build on their good start and continue to take care of the football. The NFC West doesn’t appear to have a dominant team in the division right now so as long as they don’t take too big of a dive they should still be in good shape as we approach mid season.
4) Carolina Panthers (2-0) – When the Panthers suspended Steve Smith for the first 2 games of the season for a fight with his teammate Lucas in practice many people thought the Panthers were headed for a disaster. They had to play @ San Diego and the Bears, which both have very good defenses. Without Smith it didn’t look like they’d have much of a chance.
The Panthers didn’t blow the roof off the house with their offense, but they scored a very respectable 26 and 20 points in those two games. Williams and Stewart has been a great running back combo. Delhomme hasn’t played great, but has made the big plays when it matters.
The Panthers have a very nice schedule coming up as well. They play @ Minnesota, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. I would not be surprised if Carolina is 5-1 headed into a big showdown with the New Orleans Saints on October 19th.
Early Season Disasters:
5) Seattle Seahawks (0-2) – Part of their problems have been injuries and part of it has been very poor play. Let’s start with the injuries. No offense can afford to have three receivers go on IR (Burleson, Payne, and Obomanu). No offense can afford to have three receivers go IR when Wallace, Morris, Branch, and Engram are already out. Rob Sims was lost for the season on the offensive line. It’s no wonder that Hasselbeck is struggling out of the gate.
Billy McMullen and Koren Robinson were added to the team to give them some skill position talent. Still the offense scored 24 of the teams 31 points last week. The defense and special teams have not held up their end of the bargain. The Seahawks gave up two special teams touchdowns to the Bills. The 49ers scored 33 points on the Seahawks. Willis helped with that by returning an interception 86 yards for a touchdown, but there is no doubt the Hawks defense is not playing as well as it did last season. San Fran scored 3 points in 8 quarters against the Hawks in 2007.
It really doesn’t get any easier for the Hawks. They play the Rams, which is a must win. If they lose this game their season may be done. They get a bye and then play @ NY Giants and Green Bay Packers. Those are two teams that are playing much better than the Hawks. Then the Seahawks play @ Tampa Bay.
If the Hawks can beat the Rams and Bucs and pull the upset against either NY or Green Bay they can get back to .500 and should be in position to contend in the division. However, they need to start getting players back faster than new ones are getting injured. Based on how the season has started it is not unrealistic to think the Hawks will be 2-4 or 1-5. That is not something we have seen in a long time.
6) Cleveland Browns (0-2) – This team had high hopes for 2008 and just has not lived up to expectations. They are 0-2 at home, which is never a good sign, although both losses were to good teams in Pittsburgh and Dallas.
What is concerning is how poorly the offense has played, which was supposed to be the strength of this team. The Browns have only scored 16 points this year. You can blame some of that on the weather in Week 2, but the weather was fine against Dallas and Cleveland struggled to score points in that game too. Braylon Edwards has 5 catches for 46 yards on the season. The Browns will not win 5 games if he doesn’t start playing better.
The Browns have to win their next two games @ Baltimore and @ Cincinnati. Those are not very strong football teams and are divisional games. The Browns can’t go into their bye week 1-3 or 0-4 with a losing record against the division. They can’t expect make up ground after the bye when they play New York Giants, @Washington, and @ Jacksonville.
It also doesn't help that the Steelers have started strong at 2-0 and won at Cleveland. If I was going to name another team that set themselves up well the Steelers would have been it. There just wasn't enough room to talk about every team. The Browns can still recover from this mess, but they have set themselves up very poorly. Given how bad they have looked on offense it doesn’t leave a lot of hope that they will pull out of this anytime soon.
7) Minnesota Vikings (0-2) – The Vikings are a team in desperate need of a win. The loss at Green Bay was not awful. The home loss against Indy was inexcusable. They settled for five field goals and blew a 15-0 lead in that ball game. The Vikings have already benched Jackson and made the move to Ferrotte. It is a bad sign that the Jackson experiment only made it to Week 2. Ferrotte has played well at times in his career, but realistically this is a band-aid at best.
Things don’t get any easier for the Vikings. They play Carolina, @ Tennessee, @ New Orleans, and Detroit. This is realistically set up for a 1-5 start if they don’t start stopping the pass and getting some production in their passing game. The Vikings have their work cut out for them in the next four weeks.
8) Detroit Lions (0-2) – This is a team that started well in 2007 going 6-2, before limping to a 7-9 record. They played great in the preseason going 4-0. The thought was that without Martz and a commitment to running the ball the Lions could finally get over the hump. Given the quarterback situations in Minnesota and Chicago and the quarterback controversy in Green Bay; Detroit was considered a dark horse by some to contend for this division behind the veteran play of Kitna.
The problem is the Lions are still the Lions. They can’t stop the run or the pass. Michael Turner set an Atlanta franchise record with 220 yards rushing with 2 rushing touchdowns and Rodgers passed for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Lions rank 32nd in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per attempt, and 23rd in passing yards allowed. Kitna is still throwing big picks. He has 538 yards passing with 4 touchdowns, but also has 4 picks including two that Green Bay picks returned for touchdowns.
Detroit now plays three of their next four games on the road. They play @ San Francisco, Chicago, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston. While none of those four teams are elite clubs Detroit isn’t going to beat anyone if their defense continues to play this bad. Mike Martz may be gone, but the problems from last year still remain.
Still Okay:
9) San Diego Chargers (0-2) – San Diego fan can’t be happy that the Chargers are sitting at 0-2, again. Norv Turner’s squad is limping out of the gate again. However, the Chargers could just as easily be 2-0. They lost on a last second play to the Panthers. They had a tough call go against them in Denver and lost that game with :24 seconds left. Phillip Rivers is as hot as any QB in the NFL and is tied for the league lead with 6 touchdown passes.
The Chargers have a tough game with the NY Jets coming up this week. The worry is that Favre could go off in that game like he did last year against the Chargers. After that they play @ Oakland and @ Miami before drawing the Patriots at home. There is no reason to think this team can’t be 3-2 heading into the Patriots game.
It’s unfortunate for the Chargers they are 0-2, but they can recover from this. Other than Denver the AFC West is in rebuilding mode. They still get Denver in San Diego. They have a good team and are playing well in spots. They just need to have something go their way. They are a lot better off than some of the other 0-2 teams. At least they don’t have to worry about reinventing themselves like the St Louis Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, or Cleveland Browns.
10) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) – This is another team that just hasn’t caught a lot of breaks. They have a really bad injury problem on the offensive line and at receiver. They only lost by 7 to Tennessee and 4 to Buffalo. Those teams are a combined 4-0. They were in both those games in the 4th quarter. The offense just isn’t scoring enough points to win.
The big problem has been no running game. Garrard is not good enough to carry the team with no running game. The Jags are 25th in rushing attempts, 27th in rushing yards, and 29th in yards per attempt. They have 1 rushing touchdown. It seems impossible to think that keeps up for the entire year with Taylor and MJD.
The Jaguars caught a break playing the Colts with no Bob Sanders. The Colts have not stopped the run well and that injury makes things worse. This could be a good week for the Jags to get the running game going and build an offensive identity. If they win that game they are even with the other favorite in the division with a 1-2 record.
The schedule isn’t great the next four weeks. The Jags play @ Indy, Houston, Pittsburgh, and @ Denver. Then they get their bye and three games against Cleveland, @ Cincy, and @ Detroit. That should be enough to pull them out of the slump. If they can just get to 2-4 or 3-3 heading into their bye they should be able to get back above .500 by Week 10. If they can be healthy at that point they could make another strong second half push like they did last season.
What are your thoughts on your favorite team? Do you feel good about their start? Like their chances for a big year or just hoping they can get a victory before the season ends. Let me know your thoughts.
I present to you my second regular season letter of the 2008
season. I appreciate feedback of
things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list
something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player
in one newsletter would be impossibility.
I hereby present to you a recap of the opening weekend in the NFL.
Standings
AFC
EastNFC
East
1. New England (2-0) 1.
New York Giants (2-0)
2. Buffalo (2-0) 2.
Dallas (2-0)
3. NY Jets (1-1) 3.
Philadelphia (1-1)
4. Miami (0-2) 4.
Washington (1-1)
AFC
SouthNFC
South
1. Tennessee (2-0) 1.
Carolina (2-0)
2. Indianapolis (1-1) 2.
New Orleans (1-1)
3. Houston (0-1) 3.
Tampa Bay (1-1)
4. Jacksonville (0-2) 4.
Atlanta (1-1)
AFC
NorthNFC
North
1.Pittsburgh (2-0) 1.Green
Bay (2-0)
2. Baltimore (1-0) 2.Chicago
(1-1)
3.Cleveland (0-2) 3.
Minnesota (0-2)
4.Cincinnati (0-2) 4.
Detroit (0-2)
AFC
West NFC
West
1. Denver (2-0) 1.
Arizona (2-0)
2. Oakland (1-1) 2.
San Francisco (1-1)
3. San Diego (0-2) 3.
Seattle (0-2)
4. Kansas City (0-2) 4.
St Louis (0-2)
MVP of the Week: Hard not to start with Denver’s best
receiver. Brandon Marshall had one
of the best days in the history of the NFL. His 18 receptions tied him with Tom Fears of the then LA Rams
for 2nd in NFL history.
The record is TO with 20 against the Chicago Bears on December 17,
2000. Marshall added 166
yards receiving. Next would be
Kurt Warner. He posted 19
completions in 24 attempts for 361 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, 0 picks and a
perfect 158.3 QB rating. His
main target was Boldin who had 6 catches for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Finally, Darren McFadden had 164 yards
and 1 touchdown in his second game with the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders hope it is the first of
many 100-yard games to come.
Loser of the Week: Carson Palmer and Matt Hasselbeck have
been two of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL the last 5 seasons. They have looked lost to start the
season and Sunday was no exception.
Hasselbeck does have a lot of injuries to his receivers, but he has to
do better than 18 for 36 for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 picks, and a 42.5 QB
rating. Palmer played a tough Tennessee defense, but 16 for 27 for 134 yards 0
touchdowns, 2 picks, and a 41.3 QB rating is not acceptable. Finally, Maurice Jones-Drew is going to
have to do better than 7 carries for 17 yards if the Jags are going to start
winning games and contending for the AFC South.
Game of the Week: There were two games that were better than
the rest. It seemed that Denver
and San Diego would be impossible to top.
The Broncos had a 31-17 lead at the half, but gave it away. They trailed 38-31 late in the 4th
quarter. Ed Hochuli missed a fumble by Jay Cutler and ruled it an incomplete
pass. Even though the ball was
recovered by San Diego and the incomplete pass was reversed, by rule the ball
was placed at the spot of the fumble and given back to Denver. Two plays later Denver scored a
touchdown on 4th down with 24 seconds. They decided to go for the win and a two-point conversion
proved to be the difference in their 39-38 victory. It was one of the most bizarre endings I have ever seen.
Then came the Monday Night game. The Cowboys and Eagles combined for 54 first half
points. The game featured long
passes (72 yards to TO), long kickoff returns (98 yards to Felix Jones), and
costly fumbles (Romo fumble recovered by the Eagles in the end zone for a
touchdown). The game finally saw
the Eagles Donovan McNabb fumble a handoff to Westbrook in the 4th
quarter that led to Dallas’s winning score. The final was 41-37.
Bay of Pigs: Pittsburgh seems to be making a habit of
playing in these bad weather games.
Last year they had the 3-0 game against Miami in the mud and rain. This year they played Cleveland in
extremely windy and wet conditions.
The result was a 10-6 win by the Steelers that featured very little
offense.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Had Shanahan’s
gamble not paid off he would have been the most scrutinized coach in the NFL
this week. That was a very gutsy
call. You can’t go against a guy
with that much experience that pulled out the win. Therefore, I would go with Eric Mangini’s conservative
offense at the goal line. Trailing
6-0 in the second half the Jets had first and goal at the 3-yard line. Instead of allowing their future Hall
of Fame Quarterback to put the ball up in the air just one time they ran three
plays to Thomas Jones that netted 1 yard.
The result was a field goal.
Had they allowed Favre to throw the ball it would not have guaranteed a
touchdown, but it would have put the ball in the hands of their best player. It makes no sense to bring Favre over
and not utilize his talents. The
momentum could have swung much differently had the Jets been just a bit more
aggressive.
The other call that was puzzling to me was the last
meaningful play of the Eagles and Dallas.
With a 4th and very long instead of running a conventional
play to pick up the first down the Eagles came out of their final timeout and
threw a mid range pass that was 10 yards short of the first down that was a
designed lateral play that went to Westbrook and ran out of space on the
sideline. The Eagles were starting
to get into desperation mode and probably wouldn’t have won the game
anyway. Still, have your
quarterback throw the ball 25 yards downfield and make a play. It was not a very strong call coming
out of a timeout that had very little chance for success.
Injury Report: Week 1 was disastrous in terms of
injuries. Brady and Merriman
suffered season ending injuries.
Colston was lost for 6 weeks.
Those are some of the most important players on those rosters. This week the most serious injury in
terms of the players’ value to the team was Devin Hester. He suffered a rib injury in the Bears
loss to the Panthers. His status
is up in the air for next week.
Brett Keisel will not be taking snaps for the Steelers
anytime soon. He suffered a calf
injury and is expected to be out until November. That hurts their defensive line considerably.
The Seahawks suffered another setback. Logan Payne tore his
MCL and is now out for the season.
That means Burleson, Obomanu, and Payne have been lost for the
season. Engram, Branch, Wallace,
and Morris could return in Week 5.
It has been a rough start to the Seahawks who seem to be losing all
their offensive weapons.
Overall Impressions of Week 1:
1) Mile High Resurgence – One of the pleasant early season
surprises has been the Denver Broncos.
Their win over San Diego was not without controversy but everyone should
be able to agree that Denver has looked impressive to start the season.
Jay Cutler is quickly letting people know that the best
quarterback from the 2006 Draft class resides in Denver. Matt Leinart has lost his job to Kurt
Warner and Vince Young is injured and may not get his job back from Kerry
Collins. Neither has shown he
ability to be a NFL starting quarterback.
Then there is Cutler. His
52 completions ranks 2nd in the NFL. His 650 yards passing leads the NFL. He is tied with Phillip Rivers for the
NFL lead with 6 touchdown passes.
He has only 1 pick.
Cutler’s completing 70.3 percent of his passes and his 118.6 QB rating
is 5th in the NFL.
The Denver offense has looked very solid. Brandon Marshall leads the NFL with 18
receptions despite the fact he was suspended for the opening game. Rookie Eddie Royal is tied for 5th
with 14 receptions. Denver is
first in total offense, 2nd in passing yards, and 10th in
rushing yards. Their 40.0 points
per game is currently first in the NFL.
Compare that to last year when the Broncos ranked 21st in the
NFL with 20.0 points per game due to a red zone offense that settled for field
goals and it is a drastic early season improvement.
I am well aware that only two games have been played and
that the offense is probably not going to maintain its 40.0 per game pace. I’m also aware that the Broncos main
weakness in 2007 was their rush defense, which is still giving up 115.0 yards
per game and their defense in general is giving up 26.0 points per game. While they looked good against Oakland,
which is starting a rookie quarterback and features a rookie running back with
no standout receivers; the Broncos defense looked horrible against an
experienced San Diego offense.
Two games is not enough body of work to make a judgment
about a team. What is quickly
becoming evident is that the Broncos got the best quarterback in the 2006 draft
and have finally found a long-term replacement for John Elway. The Broncos also have a very young
offensive nucleus. The average age
of Cutler, Hall, Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, and Young is 24.5 with Hall being
the oldest of the group at 26.
This is an offense that barring a serious injury should be dangerous for
at least the next 5 seasons. The
Broncos appear to be the early favorite to replace San Diego as the dominant
team in the division once the Charger’s window begins to close.
2) The Cardinals in first place – My Cardinals pick for the
division title is starting to look like a pretty good pick. The Cardinals are 2-0 on the young
season. The Rams have been
horrific giving up 79 points in their first 2 games. They are in the discussion for worst teams in the NFL. Seattle has not looked good and has
been crippled by a rash of offensive injuries. Their defense has not been playing well and their special
teams have been anything but special.
San Fran has a lot of question marks. Arizona could build a sizeable early season lead in the
division if they continue to play well.
The Cardinals offense has been lights out. Kurt Warner has found a rebirth in
Arizona. It started last year when
he replaced Leinart. This year he
has been nothing short of amazing.
He is 2nd in the NFL in QB rating at 128.5. He is completing over 70% of his
passes. Most importantly he has 4
touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Last year he tied for 7th in the NFL with 17 picks despite
only starting 11 games.
The thing people have to remember is that he played San Fran
and Miami. Those defenses will not
be confused with the 2000 Ravens.
However, it is a good sign that he is taking care of the ball. This is as close as he has looked to
the 99-01 Kurt Warner in a long time.
Fitzgerald and Boldin have been their usual impressive selves. Edgerrin James has also been effective,
but still is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and not scored a rushing
touchdown. He will need to pick up
his production.
The good thing for the Cardinals is that they are only
giving up 11.5 points per game, which is tied for 5th in the
NFL. Again, the offenses they
faced are nothing to write home about, but they gave up 20 points and 37 points
to San Fran last year. To give up
only 13 points to San Fran this year is an improvement. The schedule is going to get a little
more difficult, but not impossible.
They play @ Washington, @ NY Jets, and then come home to face Buffalo
and Dallas before heading into the bye.
If they can go 2-2 or 3-1 against that schedule they will be no worse
than 4-2 headed into the bye week and looking pretty good in the NFC West. Weeks 9-11 will be very important for
them as they play the entire NFC West those 3 weeks.
3) Minnesota’s Quarterback dilemma – My last two stories
were about successes. On to some
disappointments. Minnesota looks
to be the same team they were a year ago.
Minnesota is 4th in the NFL in rushing offense this young
season. Adrian Peterson has two
100-yard games. The rush defense
ranks 7th in the NFL.
If it weren’t for a 56 yard run by Grant they would be number 2.
The problem is the Vikings were number one in those
departments a year ago. NFL fans
expected that. That only got them
to 8-8. Where they needed to
improve was the passing offense and passing defense. The pass defense is still 24th in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers lit up the Vikings with
an 80% plus completion percentage.
Peyton Manning remembered who he was in the 2nd half after
being shutout by the Vikings in the first half.
Then there is Jackson and the passing offense. Minnesota ranks 24th in the
NFL in passing yards with 143.5 per game.
Their 64.8 QB rating is 26th. The passing offense has produced only one passing touchdown. They can’t convert through the air on 3rd
down. Jackson has a rating in the
40s on that critical down.
No one is expecting Jackson to be Steve Young in his 3rd
year. He comes from a small school
and is still learning the game.
Also, he was injured in training camp and is still having issues with
his knee. He is showing toughness
by playing through the pain.
However, he is entering his 3rd year. The game is slowing down for
Cutler. It is still too fast for
Jackson. It isn’t too much to ask
a 3rd year quarterback to have a rating in the 80s, convert 3rd
downs, and throw some touchdown passes, especially when his offense has
Peterson and defenses are putting 8 and 9 in the box.
The Vikings time is now. They have the running game. They have the run defense. They can force turnover and sacks. They will give up some big pass plays, but they have only
given up 21 points per game in their first two contests. That should be enough to win NFL
games. They have only lost by a
combined 8 points in their first two games. There is no reason for panic yet. This isn’t the Rams who are also 0-2 being outscored
79-16.
What is clear though is that Jackson’s knee is either too
bad to play or he is too bad to play.
They have to get more out of this passing game. If they don’t they will continue to be
the same 8-8 team they were last year.
That has to improve their quarterback play quickly if they want to get
into the playoffs.
4) Oakland’s Al Davis Problem – Al Davis has always been one
of the more interesting characters in the NFL. He has been a commissioner, owner, general manager, and head
coach in the AFL / NFL. Not many
people can make that type of claim.
He is one of the most influential people in league and a big part of the
league’s history.
That said he is ruining the Oakland Raiders. Since they went to the Super Bowl in
2002 the Raiders are 20-62. Their
best finish was 5-11 back in 2004.
The lowlight of that horrific run was 2006. The Raiders finished an unthinkable 2-14. Art Shell really set this team back
with his one year as head coach.
That circus scored a league worst 168 points in 16 games. It was the main reason Randy Moss
wanted out of Oakland.
The Raiders made a bold move by looking toward their
past. John Madden was an excellent
Head Coach for the Raiders. He was
33 years old when he took over the Raiders in 1969. He still has the most wins in Raiders history compiling a
103-32-7 record in 10 seasons. Jon
Gruden was just 35 years old when he took over. He compiled a 38-26 record and laid the foundation for the
Raiders 2002 Super Bowl run.
That is one reason the Lane Kiffin hiring made sense. The Raiders weren’t going to lure a big
name head coach with the way Davis runs things. By bringing in a 32-year-old guy he could make a name for himself
and the Raiders had a coach their young team could grow around. While they only improved from 2-14 to
4-12 there was drastic improvement.
For starters, the offense scored 283 points, which ranked 23rd
in the NFL. That was a 114-point
improvement and nine spot improvement from 2006. The Raiders lost 6 games by 7 points or less in 2007. Compare that to only 4 games in 2006.
The Raiders may have fooled themselves into thinking they
are Super Bowl contenders this year.
At best they are the 3rd team in the division. But they should be encouraged by the
fact they have Russell and McFadden, both of whom are starting for the first
time this year. The Raiders need
to give Kiffen a couple years with this team and develop them the right
way. While I am not privy to how
he handles the team behind close doors the product on the field has been pretty
good. They play hard and are going
through the struggles that any young team goes through.
As long as Davis continues to toy around with firing him it
hurts this young team’s development and just adds to the perception that
Oakland is where coaches go to die.
Handling the situation the way he is will not allow him to bring in a
big name coach, because they now that coming to that no win situation will
tarnish their legacy. Al Davis is
Al Davis’s biggest problem right now and how he is running this team isn’t
going to get the Raiders back to their Commitment to Excellence.
5) Jacksonville’s Disappointing Start - This is a team that
many thought would contend for the Super Bowl. It was my Super Bowl pick. Their 0-2 start has been disappointing to say the
least.
No one has been playing well, especially on offense. The offensive line has been reduced to
shambles by injury. That has
caused the running game to sputter.
Taylor and MJD have combined for 35 carries, 97 rushing yards, 2.8 yards
per carry, and 1 rushing touchdown.
Matt Jones is the leading receiver on the team with 11 catches for 130
yards and 0 touchdowns. Joey
Porter has yet to play a game.
Troy Williamson has nicely resurrected his career with two catches for
11 yards on the young season.
Garrard has a rating in the 60s and has 1 touchdown to 3 picks. The offense is a mess right now.
Unfortunately for them it is going to get worse, before it
gets better. They play @
Indy, Houston, Pittsburgh, and @ Denver before they get to their bye week. If they can somehow go 2-2 against
those teams they will be back in the mix.
Coming out of the bye they play Cleveland, @ Cincy, and @ Detroit. That could be enough to get them back
in a flow and playing like they did at the end of last season.
It’s too early to hit the panic button. The Jags have only been outscored 37-26,
so it isn’t like they haven’t been competitive. A few plays here or there and no one is talking about their
problems. I still look for the
Jags to make the playoffs, but they have to get their running game going. It’s too early to call Sunday a must
win, but they really need to beat Indy if they want to stay in the AFC South
race.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred’s 2008 record: 17-14
1) Carolina (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2): Carolina is doing a nice job of
stopping the run this year, Delhomme is playing very well, and they get Steve
Smith back who the Vikings have no answer for. Minnesota’s got a world of problems at QB and the offense
can’t seem to get out of its own way.
Peterson is a great talent, but he can’t win every game on his own. I have picked against Carolina both weeks
and I can’t see doing that again.
Until the Vikings prove they can score touchdowns and not field goals, I
am not picking them to win.
Carolina in a low scoring, close game. Winner: Carolina
2) St Louis (0-2) at Seattle (0-2): This is probably the most important
game of the season for Seattle.
Seattle can’t afford to start 0-3.
They can’t afford to go 0-2 in the division at home. They need to get a win if they want to
be a serious division or playoff contender. Even without any receivers the St Louis defense is
enough to get any offense out of a slump.
The Rams season is already over.
They have given up 79 points in their first two games, can’t get Jackson
on track, and can’t score. The
Rams offense has 16 points on the season.
I’m not sure I would pick St Louis to beat USC right now. I might not pick them to beat Ohio
State. I’m certainly not picking
the Rams to beat a fellow NFL team.
I am going to go with the Hawks in this one. Winner: Seattle
3) Pittsburgh (2-0) at Philadelphia (1-1): We only get to
see this game once every four years and this year both teams are off to a good
start. The Steelers offense
destroyed Houston at home in Week 1 and the defense helped them survive some
nasty wind and rain. Philadelphia
is off to a great start and would be 2-0 if they hadn’t drawn Dallas this early
in the season. They are playing
very well right now. I expect this
game will compete for Game of the Week Honors. I like Westbrook to win his match up with Parker, McNabb to
play just a tad better than Big Ben, and the Eagles to win a great game. Winner:Philadelphia
4) Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1): I still haven’t
lost faith in the Jaguars. I think
once they get some of their receivers and line back they will be able to start
winning some games in which they dominate the opposing team. Regardless of the injuries they aren’t
playing very well right now. They
need to get Taylor and MJD on track. Indianapolis looked much better in the 2nd
half against Minnesota, but still needed to take the game down to the wire
before claiming victory. It’s hard
to decide which of these struggling teams to go with. I’m going to go with the Colts. Indy’s run defense did not look good on Sunday, but I don't see the Jags exploiting that. On offense they still looked lost most
of the game, but came through when it mattered. Jacksonville’s defense is
going to have to carry them in this game.
This is going to be a game very similar to the Minnesota and Indy game. Indy by a field goal.
Winner: Indianapolis
5) Dallas (2-0) at Green Bay (2-0): This will be a big test for the
Packers. While they are 2-0 they
have a lot of concerns. They blew
a 21-0 first half lead to trail 25-24 with 7:41 left in the game. Calvin Johnson ate up the Packers
secondary for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Packers have shown time and time again that their physical
man-to-man style on defense can’t match up with some of the bigger receivers in
the NFL. Owens is as big as they
come. The Cowboys find good ways
to put pressure on the quarterback.
I expect Dallas to win a high scoring game, similar to what we saw in
Dallas last year when these two teams met. Winner:Dallas
and the rest…
6) Kansas City (0-2) at Atlanta (1-1): Atlanta looks to be
on the way to respectability.
Kansas City looks to be in the running for the first pick in the 2009
NFL Draft. I look for Michael “The
Burner” Turner to have another big game and lead Atlanta to a victory. Winner:Atlanta
7) Oakland (1-1) at Buffalo (2-0): Oakland is on its way up, but the speculation with the coach
is not helping matters. Buffalo is
playing very well and I look for them to get to 3-0 behind #### and the
running game. Winner: Buffalo
8) Tampa Bay (1-1) at Chicago (1-1): This is pretty much a
toss up. These are two good
defenses with offenses that don’t make a lot of mistakes. The key is going to be which defense
can control the tempo of this game.
With the Bears best weapon in Hester in doubt, I’m going to go with the
Bucs. Winner:Tampa Bay
9) Houston (0-1) at Tennessee (2-0): Houston played
Tennessee tough in both games last year, but Tennessee swept the series. I don’t think the hurricane did any
favors for Houston in terms of preparation and Tennessee looks very tough to
start the season. Tennessee uses
run defense and conservative offense to move to 3-0. Winner:Tennessee
10) Miami (0-2) at New England (2-0): I look for New England
to open it up a bit more now that Cassel has a game under his belt, they are at
home, and the opponent is Miami.
Don’t expect 35 points at half time, but expect the Pats to be in the
high 20s to low 30s and expect Moss to have a good rebound game. Winner: New England
11) Cincinnati (0-2) at New York Giants (2-0): Cincinnati is as terrible as they
come. The Giants have another
tough defense and are playing with confidence. Giants in a rout.
Winner: NY Giants
12) Arizona (2-0) at Washington (1-1): Washington looked better on
offense. This will be the first
real offense the Cardinals face this season, unless you consider San Fran and
Miami to be powerful offenses. I
like Portis and the defense to do enough to keep the game close, but I like
Warner and the passing offense to win the game. Winner: Arizona
13) Detroit (0-2) at San Francisco (1-1): Neither team
really impresses me. The 49ers
gave up 30 points to an offense that is on its 6th string WR. Detroit is Detroit. I look for Johnson and Williams to play
big, but I think Gore and the 49ers offense also have a big day. I’m going with the home team. Winner: San Francisco
14) New Orleans (1-1) at Denver (2-0): Winner: I don’t think
the Saints have the defense to stop this suddenly powerful offense. Look for Cutler and Marshall to have
another big day. Winner:Denver
15) Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (1-0): Cleveland was able
to sweep Baltimore scoring 27 and 33 points in their two games last year. Lewis was able to get just enough
rushing in those two games to allow Anderson to make some plays passing. The Browns have looked bad. They definitely worry me. However, their two games to start the
season were against Dallas and Pittsburgh. With an easier opponent I look for Cleveland to get their
first W. Winner: Cleveland
16) New York Jets (1-1) at San Diego (0-2): The New York
Jets are still adjusting to playing football with Brett Favre. While he had one of his best games of
the season against San Diego in Week 3 last season, I don’t see the chemistry in
place with the Jets to duplicate that.
I like the Chargers to win at home as long as Tomlinson is able to go at
close to 100%. Winner:San Diego
That’s all for this week. Enjoy the opening week of football and I look forward to
reading your comments this week.
I present to you my first regular season letter of the 2008 season. I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the opening weekend in the NFL.
