It’s back. This
is my second preseason letter. I
didn’t do one the opening week with just the Hall of Fame Game on the
slate. Again, while I appreciate
feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't
list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player
in one newsletter would be impossibility.
I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason
action.
Standings
AFC
East NFC
East
1. Buffalo (1-1) 1.Washington
(3-0)
2. Miami (1-1) 2.
NY Giants (1-1)
3. New York Jets (1-1) 3.
Philadelphia (1-1)
4. New England (0-2) 4.
Dallas (0-2)
AFC
South NFC
South
1. Houston (2-0) 1.
Tampa Bay (2-0)
2. Tennessee (2-0) 2.
Carolina (1-1)
3. Jacksonville (1-1) 3.
New Orleans (1-1)
4. Indianapolis (1-2) 4.
Atlanta (0-2)
AFC
North NFC
North
1.Baltimore (1-1) 1.Detroit
(2-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-1) 2.Minnesota
(1-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-1) 3.Chicago
(0-2)
4.Cleveland (0-2) 4.Green
Bay (0-2)
AFC
West NFC
West
1.Denver (1-1) 1.
Seattle (2-0)
2. Kansas City (1-1) 2.
Arizona (1-1)
3. Oakland (1-1) 3.
San Fran (1-1)
4. San Diego (1-1) 4.
St Louis (1-1)
MVP of the Week:
Matt Schaub had a terrific performance this week. He went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2
touchdown tosses while throwing 0 interceptions. He posted a 154.9 QB rating. Michael Turner was very productive for the Falcons. While he carried the ball only 4 times
he had 113 yards, including a 63-yard dash. Finally, Brandon Coutu had a very
nice game going 5 for 5 on field goals and 2-2 on extra points. Included in those field goals was a
48-yard and 46-yard kick. But
Domenik Hixon had the best performance of all. He had 2 receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown in the
first quarter as the NY Giants built a 23-3 first quarter lead. That effort propelled them to a 37-34
victory.
Loser of the Week:
I would go with the New England defense, the Cleveland Browns, and the
Green Bay Packers. The Patriots
rebuilt their secondary and linebackers this off-season. It looked woefully inadequate Sunday
Night. Brain Griese went 8-8 on
the first drive on a 17-play drive that consumed 9:38 seconds. The Patriots trailed 17-3 at the half
and 27-3 after three quarters, before losing 27-10. Granted Tom Brady didn’t play which limited the offense, but
I was not impressed with the Patriots defense against what I consider a pretty
average offense. It is probably
nothing to worry about at this stage, but that needs to get fixed up.
Then there were the Browns. This is a classic example of how preseason scores can be
misleading. If you looked at the
final you see a 37-34 game. It
looks like both teams getting in good work in a high scoring game. Hidden in that score is that the NY
Giants first team destroyed the Browns first team to the tune of a 30-3 lead in
the early part of the second quarter.
That was an embarrassing game by the first string and is something they
will need to address next week when they take on the Detroit Lions.
Green Bay I will discuss later in my Impressions of the
Week.
Game of the Week: I’m going to go with another preseason
overtime game. The Seahawks and
Bears played to a 26-26 tie, before the Hawks broke the tie with a field goal
in overtime. The Seahawks were
down 10 points entering the 4th quarter before they ran off 17
points. Kellen Davis tied the game
with 2:50 left in the 4th quarter. Brandon Coutu nailed a 36-yard field goal early in the
overtime to give the Hawks the win.
Honorable mention to the Cleveland Browns and NY Giants.
The Bay of Pigs:
Has to be that 7-6 gem the Chargers and the Rams put up in St
Louis. The Chargers kicked a pair
of first quarter field goals and the Rams scored the lone touchdown in the
third quarter.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Still waiting for the regular season on
this.
Hospital Visit:
Chad Johnson suffered a sprained shoulder. He has already been ruled out for next week’s game and
Marvin Lewis said he could be questionable for the season opener.
Tavaris Jackson hurt his knee in the Viking’s win. The Vikings quarterback strained his
MCL. He is expected to miss next
week, but should be okay for the season opener.
Tom Brady didn’t even travel to Tampa Bay, because of an
undisclosed injury. It is believed
that he has a sore foot. It is on
the same foot that bothered him in the Super Bowl, but a different injury. It is uncertain whether he will play in
the rest of the preseason.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) The New York Bretts – Brett Favre had about as good of a
debut as one could hope for. He
went 5 for 6 for for 48 yards and 1 touchdown pass in 2 drives. It was arguably his best
preseason game since 2000 as he posted a 139.6 QB rating.
No, he does not yet have complete command of the
offense. The Jets had about 40
plays for him to use in that game.
Two drives aren’t enough to tell if he is ready to run the offense for
60 minutes. He needs to show he
understands the offense enough to run a 2-minute no huddle offense and that his
stamina is good enough to play well deep into the 4th quarter. I expect those things to come, but you
can’t learn about that in 6 pass attempts and 2 series.
However, there were two things that were clear, 1) The team
and the New York Jets fan base have been electrified by this signing. There was a very nice buzz in the air
surrounding the game. 2) Favre
still looks extremely sharp. He
had a 19-yard pass to Cotchery that was a beautiful touch pass down the
field. He also looked of the
safety perfectly on the Keller touchdown.
About his only bad play was a sack he took on the first drive, which is
still better than throwing a pick in that spot.
It’s going to take several games for Favre to get on the
same page with his teammates.
There are going to be times where it looks great and times where it
doesn’t. His first game keeps the
optimism at a very high level and gives the Jets something to build on. Excellent first start for Favre.
2) The Rams need Steven Jackson – The Rams need to get
Steven Jackson’s contract figured out fast. In 2 preseason games the Rams have looked horrific on
offense. They scored just 7 points
in their 7-6 win against San Diego.
They lost 34-13 in their opener to Tennessee.
Couple things in the Rams defense. Jackson would not have played 4 quarters in those
games. While they only had 76
yards against the Titans on the ground they did record 183 rushing yards
against the Chargers. This isn’t
so much an opinion I have because the offense has struggled in preseason. I feel they need him, because of what
he has meant to their offense the last 2 regular seasons.
Jackson got hurt in Week 3 last season. He came back in Week 8. The result was a 0-4 record in which
the Rams scored 7 points against the Cowboys, 3 points against the Ravens, and
6 points against the Seahawks. The
only game the offense looked good in was the 34-31 loss to Arizona.
Steven Jackson is a beast. In 2006 he recorded 2,334 yards from scrimmage, which ranks
5th in NFL history. It
was only 95 yards shy of Marshall Faulk’s 1999 NFL record. He also scored 16 touchdowns that
season. Last year despite missing
those 4 starts he still recorded 1,002 yards rushing and scored 5
touchdowns. He scored a touchdown
in 6 of the 9 games after he came back from injury.
This holdout is looking a lot like Larry Johnson last
season. It looks like it could
drag into the eve of the regular season.
It will take him a couple games to warm up. Holdouts of this nature can be a precursor to injuries.
The Rams can’t afford that. On paper they don’t appear particularly strong even with
Jackson in the lineup. While Holt
and Bulger can move the ball through the air they won’t be nearly as effective
if defenses don’t have Steven Jackson to contend with. This offense needs a healthy Steven
Jackson this season. The Rams need
to get him into camp ASAP to put him in the best possible position to do that.
3) Pack took a big step back – Lost in the Aaron Rodgers vs.
Brett Favre story is that both players play with 50 other players. The story out of this game has been
that Aaron Rodgers took a step back.
Aaron Rodgers is not the only story on this team. In terms of preseason losses this is
about as bad as it gets and Rodgers was not the only concern.
The Brown’s first team at least got thumped by the defending
champions. The Patriots lost to a
playoff team without Brady.
Granted the Packers didn’t have some key players, mainly Grant and
Jennings, but San Fran is a bad football team.
The first problem is the offense did nothing to move the
ball. The Packers gained 46 yards
of total offense in the first half.
Their two scoring drives for field goals featured a 4-play drive for -6
yards. The other drive was 4 plays
for 2 yards. Rodgers was sacked 4
times. He had several passes that
were dropped, including a sure touchdown grab by Donald Lee. The Packers managed only 101 yards
rushing against a team that gave up 248 yards rushing to Oakland just a week
ago. They also lost 3
fumbles.
Then there was the defense. The Packers allowed the 49er offense to go 15 plays for 87
yards and take off 9:15 of game clock in the second quarter. They allowed O’Sullivan to go 8 for 17
for 154 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The touchdown pass to Morgan was for 59 yards.
I’m not one to hit the panic button because of a bad
preseason game. Al Harris and
Charles Woodson weren’t playing on that 87-yard drive. Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings weren’t on
the field. Those are big factors.
Again, what I didn’t like is that I don’t think San Fran is
a very good football team. They
ranked 32 in scoring, 32 in offensive yards, and 32nd in first downs
in 2007. They scored 6 points
against the Raiders last week.
Their defense ranked 20th in points allowed and 25th
in yards allowed last year. This
is a defense that should be scored on.
It is not a team that should have beat the Packers 34-6.
The Packers have a big test in front of them. Not only Rodgers, but the entire team
is going to receive more scrutiny because of the Favre situation than possibly
any team in the history of the NFL.
They played okay in a 20-17 loss to Cincy. Then they took a terrible step back to a mediocre football
team. They need to play a good
game and establish a rhythm against Denver. They need to get Jennings and Grant on the field to get reps
with Rodgers.
Denver is historically as tough of a venue as any in the NFL. It will be good to see how they handle
that atmosphere. It’s difficult to
know what to take out of Saturday’s game, but hopefully for the Packers it was
just a case of a flat preseason performance.
4) Houston Texans impressing in preseason – Houston and
Detroit are probably the most impressive non-postseason team in this
preseason. Seeing Matt Millen
isn’t running the Texans they get the advantage. They played very well at the Super Dome on Saturday. Schaub went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and
2 touchdowns with 0 picks. Rookie
Steve Slaton played well with 13 carries for 57 yards and a rushing
touchdown. The Texans won 31-27. The game before that they beat Denver
19-16. Schaub was 4 for 5 for 29
yards.
The Texans had a good season last year. Despite losing Schaub for 5 starts,
Andre Johnson for 7 starts, and Ahman Green for 11 starts they managed to go
7-3 outside of the division and 8-8 overall. They won 3 of their last 4 games. It was their 1-5 record in the division that killed them and
that lone win came against a resting Jaguars team on the final day of the
season.
The Colts still should be strong and the Jaguars look to be
improved from a year ago. The
Titans are always going to play people tough. I would pick the Texans to make the playoffs out of the AFC
North, West, and possibly the East.
The South is going to make for tough wins in the division again in
2008. If the Texans are going to
win Schaub and Johnson must stay healthy and if Green doesn’t stay healthy
Steve Slaton or Chris Brown must emerge. Green strained his groin on the first carry of the
Bronco game and did not play against the Saints. That is not a good sign for a guy that has missed 19 games
since 2005.
This is a young team that needs to continue to improve and they
look to be doing just that. While
it will be tough to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC South the Texans
are a team that I believe has a chance to compete for a final wild card spot
with Buffalo, Denver, NY Jets, if they stay healthy this year. So far they are doing the right
things in preseason.
5) Chicago Bears are really struggling – I’m not sure what
to expect out of the Bears in terms of wins and losses, but one thing that I
expect is that this will be arguably the worst offense in the NFL this season.
The first problem is a bad quarterback and worse
quarterback. The Bears are trying
to flip a coin to decide which puts the team in the best position to not
completely stink up the field.
Grossman has a 66.9 QB rating in two preseason games. He played fairly well against Kansas
City and stunk against Seattle.
Orton has a 76.4 rating and has yet to throw a touchdown pass or
interception. Neither has
established himself as the front-runner. Yet the Bears named Orton the starting quarterback for
the season opener. Hopefully he
has shown more in practice than he did in the games.
The offensive line was supposed to be in rebuilding mode
behind the drafting of Chris Williams.
Fred Miller and Rueben Brown were both let go to help this line get
younger. Williams was an injury
concern entering the draft, because of neck and back issues. Chris Williams now has a herniated disc
and could miss most of or all of the NFL season. Even if he does comeback he will be way behind the curve and
his rookie season is going to be a lost season at best.
Then there are the skill positions. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Rashied
Davis, Devon Hester, and Mark Bradley are expected to be the Bears receivers
this season. Matt Forte and Adrian
Peterson will get the majority of the carries. That isn’t exactly a list of skill position players that
keep defensive coordinators up late at night. Hester is a terror on special teams, but the jury is still
out when it comes to wide receiver.
2nd year tight end Greg Olson is probably their most scary
skill position player.
What that translates into is 3 points scored in the first
half against the Chiefs in which the offense went 8 plays for 19 yards and 5
points against the Seahawks.
Seeing the offense doesn’t score a safety that is 3 more first half
points for the offense. That drive
went 10 plays for 51 yards.
There are some teams where a problem can be identified at
one position. With the Jags last
year it was wide receiver. The
Cowboys had secondary issues last season.
With the Bears the entire offense is a mess. The skill position players can’t do anything because the
offensive line can’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running
game. The quarterback can’t do
anything, because the line doesn’t give him time, the receivers aren’t very
solid, and the running game doesn’t set him up with manageable plays. Even if the line could block better it
isn’t going to look good with the players it is protecting. It’s a vicious cycle.
In 2005 and 2006 the only problem on this team was
quarterback. In 2005 the Bears
were able to go 11-5 with an offense that ranked 26th in points
scored and 29th in yards gained. That defense finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd
in yards allowed. I think the Bears
don’t have as good of a defensive unit as they did in 2005 and they have
additional problems on the line and at running back.
I’m very interested to see how this offense does in 2008 and
what that translates to in terms of their record. Even though that division is in a state of flux with Detroit
looking to get over the hump, Green Bay replacing a legend, and Minnesota
emerging it is going to be tough for the Bears to compete in that division with
their offensive woes.
A Look Ahead:
While it may have lost some significance in recent years, the third week
of the preseason is always the most important game of the preseason. It’s when we usually see the
starters play for an entire half.
The 2007 playoff teams were 9-3 in the 3rd week of the preseason
last year. The Cowboys lost to the
Texans, the Giants lost to the Jets, and the Packers lost to the Jaguars. Both the Jags and Packers made
the playoffs. Staying healthy is
always the first goal of preseason.
In the case of Tom Brady the Patriots aren’t going to try to win the 3rd
preseason game at the expense of their franchise. Still with starters expected to go into the 3rd
quarter I’m going to look at 5 key games, not so much in terms of who will win
the game, but the matchups I’m looking for in these games.
1) Philadelphia Eagles at New England: These are the two teams I predicted to
lose in the Conference Championship.
I don’t really care what New England’s offense looks like unless Tom
Brady is going to miss time to start the season. With the KGB type culture up in Foxboro who knows how bad
that foot is right now. My guess
is Brady will be ready to play in the opener. Tampa Bay abused New England’s defense on the opening
drive. I want to see New England’s
rebuilt defense play with some pride.
I want to see how they handle a speedy back like Westbrook. I don’t think Brady is going to play
and that should allow the Eagles to win this game. Winner:Philadelphia
2) Jacksonville at Tampa Bay – This is a matchup between two
playoff teams from a year ago. The
Bucs were very impressive in their opening drive against the Patriots opening
the game with a drive that lasted over 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown. I want to see how Garcia looks in his
first action of the preseason. I
want to see how the Bucs run defense stops one of the best ground attacks in
the NFL. For Jacksonville, I want
to see how they put pressure on Garcia, a quarterback that doesn’t make many
mistakes but did have 3 of his 4 interceptions in 2007 against Jacksonville. I like how Tampa Bay is playing in the
preseason and the Jags still won’t have their receivers. I look for the Bucs in a close one. Winner:Tampa Bay
3) New York Giants at New York Jets: The Giants defensive line looked very
good against Cleveland. They
knocked Derek Anderson out of the game.
Here is what I’m looking for in this contest. How does the rebuilt line of the NY Jets handle one of the
premier defensive lines in the NFL?
How does Brett Favre look against the defense that kept his Packers out
of the Super Bowl in 2007? Can the
Jets run the ball against the Giants to give #4 a chance with play action
passing and relieve the pass rush?
Will Brett be forced into sacks and interceptions trying to dissect this
defense on his own? I don’t expect
a lot in Brett’s second preseason game.
I look for him to play above average, but in order to beat the NY Giants
first team he will have to be exceptional. I look for the Giants to win the game. Winner: NY Giants
4) Pittsburgh at Minnesota: This one is very simple too. I want to see how the Steelers ground game does against one
of the best defensive lines in the NFL.
I want to see how Jared Allen does against a team that allowed a ton of
sacks in 2007. Finally, I want to
see how Ward, Holmes, and Miller do against a secondary that gave up the most
passing yards in the NFL a year ago.
On the Vikings offense I want to see how Peterson and Taylor do against
a tough defense. I want to see how
the Vikings offense looks without Jackson who is questionable for the
opener. I like the Steelers to win
this game, but by a fairly low score.
Winner: Pittsburgh
5) Seattle at San Diego: I don’t expect Tomlinson to play too much, but I want to see
how Phillip Rivers and the passing game handle the Seattle pass rush. I want to see how the Seattle offense
runs against a Chargers team that was inconsistent against the run last
season. I want to see how the Seahawks
thin receiver core does in terms of getting open for Hasselbeck. How many coverage sacks is he going to
take? It’s tough to say who will
win this game, because of Tomlinson’s traditionally light workouts, but I think
San Diego will win this contest behind their vicious defense. Winner: San Diego
That’s all for this week. Next weeks newsletter will be full of recaps from Week 3 of
the preseason and will be light on the prediction side as teams rest most of
their key players the final week of preseason. I look forward to reading your comments.
It’s back. Last year I did a weekly newsletter of all the NFL Action. Due to the fact there was only one preseason game last week, I decided to hold off on my newsletter until this week. Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action.
Standings
AFC EastNFC East
1.New York Jets (1-0) 1.Washington (2-0)
2. Buffalo (0-1) 2. Dallas (0-1)
3. Miami (0-1) 3. NY Giants (0-1)
4. New England (0-1) 4. Philadelphia (0-1)
AFC SouthNFC South
1. Houston (1-0) 1. Carolina (1-0)
2. Jacksonville (1-0) 2. New Orleans (1-0)
3. Tennessee (1-0) 3. Tampa Bay (1-0)
4. Indianapolis (0-2) 4. Atlanta (0-1)
AFC NorthNFC North
1.Baltimore (1-0) 1.Detroit (1-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-0) 2.Chicago (0-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-0) 3.Green Bay (0-1)
4.Cleveland (0-1) 4.Minnesota (0-1)
AFC WestNFC West
1.Kansas City (1-0) 1. Seattle (1-0)
2. Oakland (1-0) 2. Arizona (0-1)
3. San Diego (1-0) 3. San Fran (0-1)
4. Denver (0-1) 4. St Louis (0-1)
MVP of the Week: It’s hard to go with MVPs of preseason games when the starters are only playing a couple series. Seneca Wallace had a fine opening to the preseason. He went 15 for 20 with 165 yards and 3 touchdown passes with no picks. Julius Peppers did very well for the Panthers. He sacked Sorgi, forced a fumble, and hurried him into an interception on the Colts first 2 possessions. It is crucial he rebound from 2.5 sacks in 2007. Aaron Rodgers also played a very solid game in his first start. He went 9 for 15 for 117 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 pick.
Game of the Week: Most fans aren’t going to watch 4 quarters of a preseason game unless it’s their favorite team. If you are a Panthers or Colts fan you saw a pretty good game. The Panthers took the Colts to OT and won 23-20. Carolina stopped Indy on a 4th and 1 at the Carolina 34 yard line and then proceeded to drive down the field for the game winning field goal.
The Bay of Pigs: Some years the games are not viewable. 10-7 finals. Punting exhibitions and penalty fests. For preseason there weren’t too many really bad games. I would say the worst games would go with a tie between San Fran vs. Oakland and Tampa Bay vs. Miami. Both teams had a half time score of 7-3. The Bucs threw for 181 yards to the Dolphins 134. Tampa out gained Miami on the ground 114-64. That final was 17-6. In Oakland, San Fran out passed Oakland 199-98. Oakland was able to dominate the ground 248-70. However, the result was only a final score of 18-6. Again, for a first preseason games nobody did too badly this week. I’ve seen a lot worse over the years.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Last year I had this named the Mike Martz Award for the stupid decision made by a player or coach that cost his team the victory. This was in honor of the man that used to challenge 7-yard plays and burn timeouts 3:00 minutes into the 3rd quarter when he was the headman for the Rams. Unless I see something incredibly stupid I tend not to give the award in the preseason. If you saw something like that this week make sure you leave it in the comments section.
Hospital Visit: There were a lot of significant injuries this week. The scariest injury of the weekend went to Denver linebacker Louis Green. Green lay motionless on the Reliant Stadium field for several minutes. Green was put on a stretcher and was moving his fingers and hands as he was taken from the field. Green was released from the hospital and all signs are that he will be okay.
Bobby Engram is going to be sidelined 6-8 weeks with a crack in his shoulder bone. He was the leading receiver from a year ago and the one veteran influence amongst a unit with a lot of question marks. Hasselbeck is going to be playing with a lot of unproven wide receivers. The Seahawks will need Engram back ASAP.
Madieu Williams suffered a neck injury and is expected to miss 6 weeks. That is a big injury for a team that was depending on him to sure up a secondary that ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed.
Charlie Batch was a big injury for the Steelers. He has been with them since 2003 as their backup quarterback. He broke his collarbone in Friday’s game against the Eagles and is expected to miss 10-weeks with that injury. That left Dennis Dixon as the backup, which prompted the signing of Byron Leftwich. If Big Ben were to go down for a couple weeks the Steelers could be in a big bind. Batch has filled in for Big Ben in the past and done very well for the Steelers.
Finally, Shawn Andrews just reported to camp this week, citing depression for the first 17 days he missed. Quoting the AP, "I'm willing to admit that I've been going through a very bad time with depression," Andrews told the Daily News in his first public comments about his training camp absence. "I've finally decided to get professional help. It's not something that blossomed up overnight. I'm on medication, trying to get better."
First of all, you have to hope that he is getting treatment and can recover from this. Situations like this remind you that there are bigger things going on in these guys life other than football. From a football standpoint, having your 2-time Pro Bowl guard out of camp for this reason is never a good thing. They need him to anchor that offensive line. He is a fantastic guard and is a big part of that football team.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Brett Favre – I am ready to be done talking about him from a non-football standpoint. It is good to see him in a camp and start being talked about as a football player and not as a distraction. When he starts making plays good or bad I would love to talk about those.
I think all NFL fans are glad that the soap opera part of the story is over. Now it would be nice if the announcers would move past it. The ESPN crew beat that horse to death on Thursday night with the Cardinals and the Saints. They picked right up where they left off on Monday Night.
When it comes to the NFL I like hearing about Favre more than just about anything, but enough is enough. He isn’t with the Cardinals, Saints, or Packers and to mention his name on every play is a bit silly. While some people will want to evaluate the trade on a play-by-play basis, it is going to take a year or two to ultimately find out if the Packers made the right call. A play-by-play analysis of Rodger’s development is as absurd as mentioning Favre’s name on every play.
2) Aaron Rodgers played solid, but… – I got the feeling that many people in the national media were looking for validation of the trade in that game. It’s a preseason game. Most teams play vanilla defenses. Cincinnati was a terrible defense in 2007.
Even if it meant everything in the world you can’t evaluate trades on a game-by-game basis. Here are two random game lines from two quarterbacks careers:
Both games were played in 2006. Both games were against Detroit where Detroit was the road team. The September game is Rex Grossman in a 34-7 victory over the Lions. The December game is Brett Favre in a 17-9 victory over Detroit. That doesn’t make Rex Grossman a better quarterback than Favre. He just played better against Detroit at home that year. Yet this is how many in the media is choosing to evaluate Rodgers vs. Favre.
Aaron Rodgers is probably under more pressure for a first year starter than any player in the history of the NFL. He is going to be inconsistent this year just like most first year starters are inconsistent. The important part of Monday’s game was to see how he responded to that pressure, something he did not handle well in the Family Night Scrimmage. Other than that you weren’t going to find much out.
Here was my impression of Rodgers. He impressed me in the sense that there wasn’t a throw he couldn’t make, something people have been talking about since he took over for Favre. He had good velocity on the ball. He had command of the offense. He didn’t stray from the pocket like many young quarterbacks do. Fleeing the pocket doesn’t give the play a chance to develop. He needs to feel the pressure a little better. He missed a safety blitz and was hit a number of times. If he does not improve in that area he will not play the full schedule. He also needs to work on his touch and accuracy.
He played a good game against a defense that was not very solid last year. He also did that without Grant or Jennings, two of the Packer’s biggest offensive weapons. My doubts haven’t been so much about his abilities as they have been about his ability to stay healthy.
Regardless of where you are at with this guy it is going to take a lot more games for anyone to make a determination about where he is at as a professional player. Put a check mark on the good column Monday Night. He played a solid game and will need to build off that game and keep getting better. Based on his attitude since March I would expect him to do just that.
3) Larry Johnson looked healthy – This is a guy that gained 1,750 yards on 5.2 yards per carry scoring 20 touchdowns in 2005. He set a NFL record with 416 carries for 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2006. He never looked right last season gaining 559 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and scoring only 3 touchdowns. He was hurt midseason against the Packers and missed the rest of the season.
Johnson ran for a touchdown on the Chiefs first drive as the Chiefs beat the Bears 24-20. He only had 8 carries for 18 yards, but had a nice run up the middle past Brian Urlacher for 7 yards and scored on a 5-yard touchdown.
People are very concerned about him for a couple reasons. The Chiefs quarterback situation dictates that defenses will concentrate on him. How he responds from a broken foot is going to be key if he is going to get the carries he needs for the Chiefs to be successful.
18 yards on eight carries is nothing to jump up and down about. But he had a couple nice runs and looked to have some of his explosiveness back. The Chiefs aren’t going to work him to hard in the preseason. This was an encouraging sign and is hopefully a sign of things to come.
4) Seattle impressive in opening win – It’s hard to tell what is what in the preseason. However, Seattle had a very nice opening game. They traveled to Minnesota and won 34-17. What was encouraging was 35 carries for 162 yards, which is an average of 4.6 yards per carry.
Again, it’s preseason. The Williams Brothers didn’t play 4 quarters. Allen wasn’t chasing the quarterback the whole time. The scored was tied 17-17 at the half, so the blowout happened with a lot of backups that won’t be on the field come Week 1.
This team is set at quarterback. Brees, Hasselbeck, and Romo are probably the three best quarterbacks in the NFC. Having a good quarterback will keep you in a lot of games. If Seattle can run the ball like they did against the Vikings that will be a big plus. Mare was also 2-2 on field goals and 4-4 on extra points, which is much better than his horrendous 2007 season. How he replaces Brown this year is critical for them winning close games in 2008.
I have questioned how this offense is going to do in 2008. Scoring 34 points on the road with an offense that has some questions is never a bad thing. However, Bobby Engram injuring his shoulder is a very bad thing. That leaves them even weaker at a position that has a lot of question marks. Regardless, Seattle impressed against a good team and deserves credit for that.
5) 49er’s quarterback situation – It was interesting to see JT O’Sullivan starting for the 49ers in their first preseason game. Nolan’s reason for that was that he knows what he has in Smith and Hill and wanted to see O’Sullivan work with the first team. If that doesn’t tell that Smith has hit rock bottom, I don’t know what will. Smith played in only 7 games and threw only 193 passes and you don’t want to see what your $49.5 million dollar investment looks like so that you can see what a 6th round pick from the 2002 draft looks like?
I’ve argued with quite a few 49ers that have argued that it is too early to label Smith a bust. If labeling Bust were the equivalent of a football game it would be 35-14 with about 4:00 minutes left in the game with Team Bust comfortably in the lead. If the coach is worried about what he has in JT O’Sullivan that is an obvious indicator that he isn’t too high on Alex Smith.
The reason O’Sullivan is getting a look is because he played in Detroit last year, which is where Martz coached. O’Sullivan has the best knowledge of the offense. I would not be shocked if he ends up starting the season as the number one quarterback for the 49ers.
A Look Ahead: It’s pretty hard to get hyped for the 2nd preseason game. Once the regular season starts I’m going to pick the best 5 games on the schedule. I’m not doing that with preseason games. There is going to be a lot of attention paid to the Jets and Redskins as this will be Favre’s first action with a team other than the Packers since 1991. People will be curious to see how he looks in this new offense. New England and Tampa Bay features two playoff teams. The Giants and Browns could be an entertaining matchup.
I’m not going to waste too much time previewing preseason games. As teams take the field for the second time we should start to see some trends and can start looking at possible concerns or possible things to be optimistic about. The key is that teams build some momentum and keep their players healthy. All in all it was a good week of preseason action and it is nice to have football back. Let me know what you thought about this week's developments in the NFL and your favorite team's performance in the preseason.
These are the teams I had making the 2008 NFL Playoffs:
AFC Playoff Teams
1)Jacksonville Jaguars 13-3
2)New England Patriots 13-3
3)San Diego Chargers 12-4
4)Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
5)Indianapolis Colts 12-4
6)Cleveland Browns 10-6
NFC Playoff Teams
1) Dallas Cowboys 12-4
2) Minnesota Vikings 11-5
3) New Orleans Saints 10-6
4) Arizona Cardinals 9-7
5) Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
6) New York Giants 9-7
Since I have done those predictions there have been a few major transactions. First, the Saints acquired Jeremy Shockey, which helps bolster my confidence in the New Orleans pick. Second, Jason Taylor became a Redskin. While he does make the defense better, I don’t expect a big improvement from my 7-9 prediction, due to the questions I have on offense. The final move is Brett Favre being reinstated by the Packers.
The bottom line is that I can’t deal in hypotheticals. Favre is with the Packers right now and indications are that the Packers will not hold an “open competition.” It is clear that the Packers don’t want him there and that Favre wants to leave. I can’t see Favre opening the season there. The question is how long does it take to make the move? There could be a trade today to the Bucs or Jets or the Packers could allow this mess to spill into the season. It is anyone’s guess where this goes at this point. Thompson and Farve’s egos could allow this to drag out for a long time.
Either way it is going to set the Packers back in terms of their locker room, unless Rodgers plays at a MVP level from day one. That is an incredibly tough task for a player who has thrown 59 career passes. My opinion is that Favre could make a new team a Super Bowl contender, but until we see where he lands and how he gels with that new team it would be crazy to predict that when there are a lot of contending teams that have a lot more certainty.
Here is how I see the playoffs going based on where the 32 teams in the NFL stand at this moment.
AFC Wildcard Round
Cleveland Browns (10-6) at San Diego Chargers (12-4) – This one I would expect to be a lopsided. The Browns have a great offense, but Anderson didn’t always take care of the ball in 2007. While the Browns will be improved at stopping the run with Williams and Rodgers on the defensive line they won’t be good enough to stop LT. I think the big play defense of the Chargers and a healthy LT put up a bunch of points on the Browns who will be making their first playoff appearance since 1994.
Score:San Diego Chargers 35 – Cleveland Browns 17
Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – This would be a very interesting matchups. It was a classic back in the 2005 playoffs. Both quarterbacks have won Super Bowls. The Steelers were the champions in 2005. The Colts brought home the trophy in 2006. My concern about picking the Colts is that they usually stop playing their best football once the calendar turns to January. The Steelers having this game at home will be a huge advantage, although they lost at home playoff game last year to the Jags. The Colts actually seem to do worse in the playoff at home in recent years having lost there in the divisional round in both 2005 and 2007. The key is going to be which team can establish the running game and which quarterback will make the fewest mistakes. I would expect a very tough game going down to the wire with the Colts winning it at the end.
New York Giants (9-7) at New Orleans Saints (10-6) – The NY Giants will begin their title defense in the Big Easy. The Saints will look to win their first playoff game since they made the run to the NFC Championship Game in 2006. I think the NY Giants will try to do the same things they did last postseason. They will try to run the ball, put pressure on the quarterback, and avoid the big turnover. I think the difference will be that the Saints have just enough firepower on offense to make up for the deficiencies they have on defense. The Giants lost a lot of defenders this offseason, most notably future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan. Shockey gets his revenge against the Giants as the Saints win a close one.
Score:New Orleans Saints 27 – New York Giants 21
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – I would also expect this to be a lopsided game. The Cardinals will be making their first playoff appearance since Jake Plummer led the Cardinals to the Divisional Round back in 1998. While they are able to pass the ball the Eagles set up well to stop the pass with Samuel, Brown, and Shepherd. The Cardinals have no answer for Westbrook and McNabb will play a good game as well. Eagles win big.
Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – If this matchup came to life what a treat this would be. The physical smash mouth style of the Jaguars collides with the high scoring air attack of the Colts. Divisional matchups in the playoffs are always intriguing. The Jaguars usually play the Colts tough and I would expect that the Jaguars could run the ball effectively against the smaller front of the Colts. The difference for the Jags is that with the addition of Harvey and Graves they will be able to put enough extra pressure on Manning to win a close game in Jacksonville.
Score:Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 21
San Diego Chargers (12-4) at New England Patriots (13-3) – We’ve seen this matchup each of the last two years. Is this the year the Chargers can finally beat New England in the playoffs? I think the Chargers would have had a great chance to beat the Patriots last year had LT, Gates, and Rivers all been healthy. They put enough pressure on Brady to disrupt the passing game, but just weren’t able to convert in the redzone on offense. Settling for four field goals in a playoff game is a recipe for disaster. The Patriots are rebuilding their defense this season. Patriot fans will say that Brady never loses home playoff games, but then again he never lost Super Bowls until last season. Still, I think the Patriots will find a way to do what they do best, win a close playoff game in the 4th quarter.
Score:New England Patriots 28 – San Diego Chargers 21
New Orleans Saints (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – The Dallas Cowboys will have waited a year to atone for their home playoff loss to the New York Giants in 2007. This will be a good opponent for the Cowboys. A defense that Romo can look to put up some numbers against and build some confidence. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. The Cowboys don’t have a perfect defense, but they will be able to make enough plays with their solid pass rush to stop Brees and the Saints. I look for the Cowboys to win a high scoring game.
Score:Dallas Cowboys 42 – New Orleans Saints 28
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5) – This is where Minnesota will regret having Jackson. While he is still developing he just doesn’t make enough plays to win playoff games when the defenses get better and the yards get tougher to come by. The Eagles have more than enough secondary help to put eight in the box and concentrate against Peterson and Taylor. While Westbrook will find rushing yards hard to come by, he still could score a couple big plays in the passing games. Eagles in a low scoring affair.
New England Patriots (13-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – Jacksonville is the team I am picking to come out of the AFC. People still think of Jacksonville as this low scoring team that can’t put up enough points against the big offenses in the AFC. Jacksonville scored 411 points which ranked 6th in the NFL. That was despite Garrard missing 4 games with an injury. They finished the season winning 6 of their last 8 games and scored 32 points per game. Jones-Drew and Taylor are arguably the best running duo in the NFL not in Minnesota and Garrard really came on in the second half of the season.
The Patriots averaged 32.3 in their last 8 games, which compares favorably to the Jaguars. While people remember the 2007 Patriots as this 40.0-point per game juggernaut, the Patriots offense did not play at that level on a consistent basis after the first 8 games. The Jaguars had enough offensive talent to compete with the Patriots in the playoffs last year. The biggest difference was that the Jaguars didn’t have enough receiver speed to exploit the Patriot secondary and they didn’t have enough pass rushers to get to Brady. They tried to address that by adding Porter and Williamson. Porter is expected to miss training camp, but should be ready for the opener. Harvey and Groves will give the Jaguars players that can get to the quarterback.
The Jaguars have been knocking at the door the last few seasons. Last season was big in that they won a playoff game and should be more comfortable and experienced come playoff time. Outside the Patriots the Jaguars played as well as anyone the second half of the season last year. I believe that carries over to this season. This is the year the Jags represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Score:Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – New England Patriots 27
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – I really didn’t know what direction to go in the NFC. It seems like the NFC is up for grabs every year. No one would have predicted the NY Giants to win the Super Bowl in preseason and the ones that did should have abandoned the bandwagon after Week 2. Yet they not only made the playoffs, but also won 3 road playoff games and a neutral Super Bowl to capture the Lombardi Trophy.
There are a number of ways you could go with this. You could pick the Vikings to win it behind a 2,000-yard season by Peterson. You could pick the Saints to rebound with a more consistent offensive approach and a better defense that features Vilma, Ellis, ####, and McCray. You could go with the NY Giants to defend their crown. Some expect Seattle to make a final push with Holmgren, although I didn’t have them even making the playoffs.
Here is why I went with these two teams. Brian Westbrook is 29 years old. Running backs tend to go downhill at 30 years old. This is getting to be his final run as a featured offensive weapon. McNabb is 31 going on 32 and given his health issues he probably won’t be a 38-year old superstar. His last years are approaching. Jackson may have been the pick that gives them a breakthrough special teams player. The defense was very solid in 2007 and Samuel will make them that much tougher. Reid has a lot to prove after the drama he went through in 2007. The Eagles should be a hungry team in 2008.
This team has a wealth of playoff experience. When that many quality people have something at stake and not many more years to get over the hump they usually come through. I thought the Eagles would miss the playoffs with McNabb needing a year to recover from ACL surgery. I expect them to make another run through the NFC in 2008.
On to the Cowboys. People will say that Romo is Mr. September. That TO and Jones are an explosion waiting to happen in the locker room. That Phillips has a 0-4-playoff record. That the Cowboys last won a playoff game back in 1996.
While criticism is warranted, I think some of that criticism is excessive. Prior to Dallas Phillips had last been a head coach for a full season in 2000. He had lost all 3 playoff games on the road. One of those was the Music City Miracle. Romo has a 0-2-playoff record. Bradshaw was 1-2 to start the playoffs with his sole win being the Immaculate Reception. Peyton Manning went 0-3 before winning his first playoff game, including a 41-0 spanking by the Jets. Eli Manning was 0-2 in the playoffs before his Super Bowl run. Two playoff games are not enough to earn a title of Mr. September.
The Cowboys had a disappointing end to the season and I’m not sure what to think of them. I do think that Romo and Phillips handled the bye week poorly prior to the NY Giants game. That said I think that failure could make them stronger. Still when you hear stories about Jessica send Romo “pictures” of her that are just waiting to get leaked to the paparazzi, you have to wonder what circus awaits Dallas in 2008.
The Cowboys have the most individual talent in the NFC in 2008. If they can find a way to gel that they should be playing in February. If they can’t they are very beatable and could make for another interesting January in the NFC.
This game has all the storylines. NFC East rivalry. TO vs McNabb. Romo and Jessica. I wasn’t sure who to pick to represent the NFC and I’ve always believed that when in doubt go with the most talented team. That is clearly the Cowboys. I look for the Cowboys to advance to their first Super Bowl since 1995 behind the strength of their offense and a defense that will put enough pressure on the Eagles to put them over the top.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – This will be the ultimate test for the Jaguars. The Cowboys have speed on both sides of the ball. They can score points in bunches and put pressure on the quarterback. The reason I like the Jaguars is that they have the ability to run the ball and control the clock with their defense. They don’t have the sexiest names on offense. Neither did the Giants in 2007.
I think they have a great coach in Jack Del Rio. The running game is very versatile. They have a defense that can force turnovers and stop the run. Finally, they added some pass rushers to help put pressure on Brady and Manning. That will help them against Romo. He didn’t handle that very well at times last season and is prone to interceptions. That is never good in a Super Bowl.
While I think Dallas has a great team, I don’t think they do the little things. They don’t pay attention to the small details and they tend to make too many mistakes. I’m not ready to bet on Tony Romo as a Super Bowl champion. I look for the defensive minded Jags to bring home the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy.
Score:Jacksonville Jaguars 30 Dallas Cowboys 21
What is your Super Bowl prediction in 2008? Do you like one of the early favorites like the Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, or Patriots? Do you like the Giants to repeat? Do you have a dark horse that nobody is talking about? Let me know your thoughts.
Now that training camps have officially kicked off I decided to come up with a list of the 12 burning questions on NFL fan’s minds entering training camp. With 32 teams I could not cover everyone. If you think I made a glaring admission please leave it in the comments and I will try to address it. Without further delay here are the 12 biggest questions around the NFL now that teams have reported for training camp.
12) Is Matt Leinart ready to emerge as the Arizona starter? - All indications are that he has looked good through the off-season and is ready to take control of that offense. However, the Cardinals also like Warner and have been having him take snaps with the first unit as well. He had his best season since leaving St Louis.
I think Leinart’s party lifestyle has gotten blown out of proportion. These guys are going to enjoy themselves. They aren’t robots that eat and digest football 24/7. They have families, endorsements, business ventures, and yes…hot tubs full of sexy young ladies.
Had this happened the Saturday night before the Seattle game I would have had a different take. Had he gone to Mexico with his entourage of hotness the week before his opening playoff game I would not have been impressed. It happened in the off-season and there is nothing wrong with Leinart enjoying his celebrity. The world of camera phones make it hard to keep that stuff private. When you combine that with his USC celebrity status you have the makings for that type of story.
This is the year he needs to break out. He has great receiving talent and a solid back in James. He has a good coaching staff. The line is not perfect and the defense will give up points, but the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, Steelers, and Browns in 2007. All three teams won 10 games. The time for excuses are over. I think he does have a good year, but I’m not certain. What I am certain of is that whether he breaks out or not will have nothing to do with the company he kept in his hot tub.
11) Will the NY Jets and Oakland Raiders spending spree pay off? - It might have paid off in the NFC. The problem is that the Jets finished 12 games off the Patriots in 2007. Even with the players they added they are only the second best team in that division. The Raiders finished 7 games off the Chargers. They too have a long way to go to close that gap.
At the end of the day it is still a quarterback’s league. The Jets have Pennington and Clemens and the Raiders are trying to figure out if Russell and McFadden can usher in a new era of excellence. While both teams added some good players and both teams overpaid for some talent they will be better in 2008. I just don’t think they’ll be good enough to compete with the slew of playoff teams in the AFC.
I look for the Jets to get to the .500 mark and for the Raiders to get to 6-7 wins. While that will be improvement, it won’t satisfy fan’s expectations given that the Jets and Raiders were throwing dollars at free agents this off-season like PacMan throws at strippers on a Monday night. Sorry Dallas fans. I couldn’t help myself. 10) Where does Shaun Alexander end up in 2008? - I don’t understand why he hasn’t ended up in Green Bay yet. Ted Thompson drafted him in Seattle. Thompson has cap room and wouldn't have to give up draft picks. Ryan Grant is holding out for a larger contract. The Packers have no proven rushers on their roster. It would seem like a no brainer to get this guy into camp, 1) to put pressure on Grant to sign, 2) To have an insurance policy if Grant gets hurt, is ineffective, or both, 3) To show your younger players how to play the running back position.
Alexander doesn’t have nearly enough in the tank to generate a season like he did when he won the MVP in 2005. What he does have is a wealth of experience and the ability to share the load with another runner. He could be a valuable player in a playoff game. I would expect that someone’s running back is going to get injured and that they will turn to Shaun Alexander at that point to save their season. It is amazing how quickly a guy can go from MVP to out of a job. 9) Are Cleveland and Minnesota playoff teams in 2008? - These were basically the two teams that just missed the playoffs in 2007. These teams are usually the most intriguing the following year. In 2006 Green Bay used its playoff miss to improve from 8-8 to 13-3. Denver and Cincinnati regressed from their near misses in 2006 to play even worse in 2007. It can go both ways.
Minnesota had a great off season adding Jared Allen to the defensive line. Bernard Berrian gives them a much better target at receiver. Jackson is developing. With the “retirement” of Brett Favre the division is in flux and I expect the Vikings to grab the NFC North. In the extremely unlikely event the Vikings could acquire Favre they could be a Super Bowl contender.
Cleveland added a lot of talent on the defensive line with Rogers and Williams. They also added Stallworth to the receiver mix. Their offensive core is still young and improving. This could be a very dangerous team in 2008. I am expecting 10 wins and the final playoff spot.
Also don’t forget New Orleans. They finished 7-9 after making the NFC Championship in 2006. They have added Shockey. Vilma, Ellis, McCray, and Ga y. If their defense can regain its 2006 form and the offense can mount more of a downfield threat the Saints will be in prime position to win the NFC South.
8) Who will be the super surprise team of 2008? - I think the team with the best chance to go from the top 10 of the draft to playoff contention would be the St Louis Rams. They have a lot of offensive talent. Bulger is a solid quarterback. Jackson is a threat both as a runner and pass catcher. Holt is still a number one target. The Rams had a lot of issues on defense and the offensive line last year. Pace needs to stay healthy and Chris Long needs to have a big year to help bring back the defense.
That said the Rams don’t play in the toughest of divisions and they draw the AFC East in 2008. I only have them finishing 6-10, but I would not be shocked if they were able to get to 8-8 or 9-7 and contend for either the division or the last wildcard spot. They need to stay healthy and they need defensive improvement, but the Rams have a lot more skill position players than the run of the mill 3-13 squad. 7) Will the San Diego Chargers be healthy to start the season? - How is Gate’s toe? How is LT’s knee? How is River’s knee? How much work will they see in preseason? No one doubts that the Chargers have the talent in place to make a run for Tampa. The concern is that they will be hampered by injuries from the get go.
Phillip Rivers has been throwing the ball at camp and appears to be throwing the ball with excellent velocity. The San Diego Union reported that he appeared to be thicker in the upper body. All indications seem to point to him being ready for the opener. LT also appears to be a go with his knee for training camp. That is important because Turner bolted for Atlanta. The biggest question marks appear to be with Gate’s toe and Jamal William’s knee.
Gates is a huge part of the Chargers pass game. While Chambers and Jackson are solid targets they are by no means superstar number one caliber players. Gates is the best tight end in football when healthy. His blend of speed, leaping ability, and size make him impossible to defend. If he is not able to go that will be a huge blow to the Chargers.
On defense Williams is a big part of the run defense. Without him at full strength the Chargers will be more susceptible to the run. In a division with Denver, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that would be a huge blow.
I expect the Chargers to go 12-4 this season and work through their injury issues. This is still a young team that should be able to overcome those issues. However, a few big injuries are enough to derail even the best squads and the Chargers are starting off the training camp season with some big concerns.
6) Can Pittsburgh survive the toughest schedule in the NFL? - I think they will, but that schedule is brutal. Pittsburgh is like the Baltimore Ravens of a year ago. The Ravens were coming off a 13-3 season, but people were very concerned about a Week 12-14 stretch where they played San Diego, New England, and Indy. Pittsburgh this season draws an even tougher slate. They play Indy, San Diego, New England, and Dallas in 4 out of 5 weeks from Week 10-14. Most people have those 4 teams somewhere in their top 5 or 6 rankings in the NFL.
I think the Steelers have a lot of things going for them that the Ravens didn’t in 2007. I think that Big Ben gives the Steelers the play at quarterback that a team needs to survive a stretch like that. McNair and Boller didn’t do that for the Ravens. I think the Steelers have more players on offense that can score points. I think the defense is in good shape. It also helps to have Cincinnati in the middle of that stretch. That is a team that the Steelers can regain offensive confidence against should they struggle to start that stretch.
The bottom line is that the Steelers still have a good team and I think people are getting a little too caught up in the schedule and in Cleveland’s off-season additions. This is still the Steelers’ division. That said it is imperative that Pittsburgh stay healthy and they don’t get off to a poor start and lose games early in the season that they should take care of. They need to beat the Ravens twice, the Bengals twice, and the Texans. They need to play well at home. They aren’t going to go 16-0 against that schedule, but they should be able to finish around 10-6 or 11-5. However, if things don’t go their way the schedule will do them no favors and could knock them on the ground fast. The Steelers have little to no margin for error.
5) Can the New York Giants repeat as Super Bowl champions? - They could, but I think it is very unlikely. Critics of the NY Giants are going to start with an Eli Manning bashing. I’m just going to look at it by the numbers. The New York Giants beat the Buccaneers soundly, 24-14. Then they beat the Cowboys by 3 points intercepting Romo in the end zone to close the game. They intercepted Favre in overtime to beat the Packers by 3 points. They won the Super Bowl by 3 points against New England. This is not a team that ran away with the playoffs. It is a team that got hot at the end of the season, played at a very high level both physically but mentally as well, and caught a lot of good breaks. To expect a team to win that many close games a second year in a row is not realistic.
The New York Giants had a lot of losses this off-season. Strahan is a Hall of Famer and the leader of this team. He is no longer there. Wilson, Mitchell, and Torbar left via free agency. Shockey was traded to the Saints. That is a lot of talent to lose. They drafted well, but those players will need time to develop.
Then there is Eli Manning. When all the dust settles he still has a 54.7 career completion percentage, has never thrown for more than 3,800 yards, has never thrown for more than 25 touchdowns, has never thrown for less than 15 interceptions in a season in which he started 16 games. He has a career 73.4 quarterback rating. I expect him to play his best season this year. I think the playoffs were no fluke and I think he turned the corner. 3,500 to 3,800 yards, 25 touchdowns, 15 picks and a rating in the mid to high 80’s is realistic. The NY Giants should make the playoffs as a wildcard.
Once there anything is possible. But I don’t see them having another run to the Super Bowl. It is very hard to repeat in the NFL and the Giants didn’t show me enough in the playoffs last year or the off-season adding talent to make me think we are in the midst of an emerging dynasty. I think it is a very talented team that peaked at the right time and made the most of a tremendous opportunity. They deserve credit for their accomplishment, but also deserve to be viewed based on their talent going into this season not their play to end last season.
4) Will Dallas win it’s first playoff game since 1996? - If Dallas doesn’t win the NFC this season it isn’t ever going to happen. In 2006 Romo had only started a hand full of games. Last season under new coach Wade Phillips they raced out to a 12-1 record before finishing 1-3. TO was injured last in the season and Romo again played poorly in the playoffs.
This season they seem to have it all. TO, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Jason Witten give them all the skill position players they could ask for. Romo is entering his 3rd season as a starter. The offensive line is stacked with 3 Pro Bowl players. The defense added Zach Thomas, PacMan Jones, and Mike Jenkins. If the Cowboys can’t win a playoff game this year they have no excuses. If they can’t make it to the Super Bowl they will have had a disappointing season.
The problem the Cowboys have is that they have people that traditionally come up small in the playoffs and I’m not even talking about Romo. It is not fair to give Romo that tag after appearing in only two playoff games. I’m talking about TO and Phillips. For all of TO’s regular season success since TO became a star receiver in the 1998 season he is 2-6 in the playoffs. He had a fantastic game against the New York Giants when the 49ers overcame a 38-14 3rd quarter deficit. He had 9 receptions for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also played well in the Super Bowl with Philly. Other than that he has a bunch of games under 100 yards and with very low touchdown output. Part of that is because he tends to be hurt at the end of the season. That was the case in 2004, 2006, and 2007. He needs to stay healthy and he needs to bring his A game for the Cowboys to win.
Then there is Wade Phillips. He has a 61-42 record as a Head Coach, but is 0-4 in the playoffs. Part of that can be blamed on a Music City Miracle, but part of that debacle last year was his fault. That team looked fat and comfortable against New York. This year there are now excuses. They should have all the talent and motivation to get the job done. If the Cowboys show bad in the playoffs he isn’t going to have another crack at it. I look for the Cowboys to win that first playoff game and to be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
3) Will Peyton Manning be ready for the season opener? - It’s difficult to say at this point, because surgeries have so many variables that Manning will not be able to control. Infection is always the biggest worry. Given that he has never missed a game in his career and given that he has a history of healing fast and taking care of his body I would be shocked if he wasn’t ready to go.
The problem for Indy is they don’t get a cakewalk type schedule to open the season and allow Manning to get back in the flow. They open at home against Chicago, travel to Minnesota, and return home to face Jacksonville. If he starts off slow the schedule has the potential to put the Colts in an early season hole. That is something foreign to this team in recent years. Since 2000 the Colts are 20-4 in September. Their last September loss was a 27-24 September 09, 2004 at New England.
Peyton Manning isn’t going to lose chemistry with his receivers. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and Addai have a lot of experience in this offense. The offensive line has been together for a while. The question is more based on ability. If the knee is sore will Manning be able to make the throws with the same accuracy and velocity that he is accustomed too? How much mobility will the injury take away?
Peyton Manning is a prolific passer and I am not betting against him. I think he will be sharp and ready to go to start the season. I look for him to have another Peyton Manning like year. 2) Can New England, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss duplicate their 2007 success? - The schedule actually lines up better for them in 2008 than 2007. In 2007 the Patriots had 8 games against playoff teams from 2006 on the schedule. In 2008 the Patriots have just 4. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2008 based on last seasons record at .387. Furthermore Randy Moss and Tom Brady have had a year to play together. Things look good for the Patriots to have a great year.
I think the Patriots will have a great year. What they won’t have is a historic year like they did in 2007. The New England Patriots were starting to slowdown my Week 9 last year. From the Week 9 Colts game to the Super Bowl the Patriots averaged 29.5 points per game compared to the first 8 games where they averaged 41.4 points per game . Tom Brady had 30 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his first 8 games. He had 26 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his last 11 games of the season. Moss had 11 touchdowns in his first 8 games and 13 touchdowns in his last 11 games. Wes Welker slowed in the 2nd half of the season.
I’m not saying this team played bad the second half of the season. They won 10 of those last 11 games and the loss was by 3 points. What I am saying is they were immortal the first 8 games of 2007 and after that they were a team that won some big games, but played 7 games that were decided by 10 points or less. Where I expect the Patriots to pick up is where they left off the 2007 season not where they started the 2007 season. I think 4,000 to 4,200 yards and 30-35 touchdown passes are likely for Brady. I think Moss will have 80-90 catches for 1,300-1,400 yards and 12-15 touchdowns. I think the Patriots will not be able to run the table a second consecutive year based on the losses they had on defense and the fact that their offense won’t be so explosive. 13-3 is a realistic record. The schedule looks pretty easy to start. I think the Patriots will be primed to lose their Week 6 game at San Diego.
1) Where does Brett Favre play in 2008 and if not Green Bay how do the Packers fare without him? - I’m done trying to guess this. It keeps taking a lot of unpredictable turns. Based on what the Packers are communicating publicly it seems as if they are ready to go with Aaron Rodgers whether he plays the camp of all camps or has one to forget. Thompson and McCarthy seem to be 100% behind him. Whether people agree with that position doesn’t matter. Brett Favre is no longer the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.
That makes it hard to see Favre in a Packer uniform for the start of the season. I can’t imagine he would want to hold a clipboard or that the Packers would want him to do that. Thompson is already referring to the Packer players as #4’s former teammates. That means he will either return to retirement and possibly come out should Rodgers get injured. It might also be possible another quarterback gets injured that the Packers would be agreeable to sending him too. I think it is very possible he never plays again.
As far as how the Packers do in 2008. I picked an 8-8 season before Favre retired and the pressure on Rodgers to perform will be at an all-time high. If he starts slow the call for #4’s name will be heard throughout Lambeau Field and the media.
It is so hard to replace a legend even with the greatest of coaches. Mike Shanahan is 130-78 since he took over in Denver back in 1995. However, his career is a tale of two parts. From 1995 to 1998 he went 47-17, which is .734. He was 7-1in three playoff appearances and won back to back Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998. However, since 1998 he is only 83-61, which is .576. He is 1-4 in the playoffs and has not been back to a Super Bowl.
It hasn’t been as if the cupboard has been bare in Denver since 1998. He was able to replace Terrell Davis after the Super Bowl runs and the defense has had some good seasons. What Shanahan has sought and not been able to find is a replacement for John Elway. Bubby Brister, Chris Miller, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Steve Beuerlein, Danny Kanell, Jarious Jackson, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler have all tried. They have had mixed levels of success with Jake Plummer being the most successful and Jay Cutler showing the most promise. However without John Elway Mike Shanahan has been an above average coach.
That isn’t meant to diminish what Shanahan has accomplished. In my book he should be in the Hall of Fame. All the great coaches need great quarterback play to win. What we don’t know is if Mike McCarthy is a good head coach or if Favre made him look better than he was. Mike Sherman looked like a good head coach when he took over and that quickly faded even with Favre there through it all. We don’t know what Rodgers can do. 59 career passes is not enough to make a determination.
You could tell me the Packers could go 4-12 or 12-4 and I could really agree or disagree. There are too many unknowns on this team. Given the history or replacing legendary quarterbacks, first year quarterback struggles, the tougher first place schedule that features the AFC South, and a hold out by Ryan Grant who was their only rushing offense in 2007 I think 8-8 is a fair guess at this time. I don’t see how this team contends for the playoffs without Favre.
So what is your burning question for 2008? Do you think I answered these on the head or do you think I got it all wrong? Let me know your thoughts.
I plan to release my Playoff Predictions based off of my 8 division previews on Wednesday, August 6th. I haven’t done real well with responding to comments on my last couple articles due to time constraints on my part. I will try to do better on this article.
You can view this article and other articles I've written at the Maniax's site.
