I'm going to be away from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the blogger world.  I appreciate everyone that commented on the various divisions.  What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments from various fans.

I'm going to leave an open question for people to comment on.  

This is a very simple question.  What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the greatest concern?

Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look forward to reading the comments when I get back. 

This is my sixth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here is my planned schedule. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest rivalries in the NFL. The Bears, Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises and each have a storied history. The Minnesota Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but have assimilated well into the division’s rivalries. This year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall of Fame QB in Green Bay will not be taking the field. The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre became their quarterback. The Packers won 7 divisional titles in his tenure with Green Bay and won over 60% of their divisional games. Which team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very interesting development.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC North.

1) Minnesota Vikings

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 365(15th)

Points Allowed: 311 (12th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Minnesota Vikings were the best in the league at running the football and they were the best in the league at stopping the run.

Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous season. He rushed for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns despite only starting 9 games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Included in that mammoth total was a 296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for rushing yards in a single game. He also had a 224- yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be having more consistency and doing better with 8 men in the box. In his final 4 games he was held to 54 carries and a 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards per carry. Part of that was his coming back from injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more than they did in the first half of the season.

Chester Taylor also had a fine season. He rushed for 844 yards and 7 touchdowns. Minnesota and Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.

While Peterson and Taylor are good, the line is one of the best in the business. McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line and Birk is a tremendous center. It is imperative that McKinnie not be suspended for his disorderly conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami courtroom.

On defense the Vikings may have the best front 4 in football. Pat and Kevin Williams are two mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely well. New to the mix is Jared Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they sorely missed last season. That should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd ranked pass defense.

On special teams Ryan Longwell is a steady and reliable kicker. It remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return man.

Weaknesses: For as good as the Vikings were running the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad passing the ball and stopping the pass.

Let’s start with the pass defense. It was ranked 32nd last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to help at the safety spot. Finally they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of play and Allen give them the pass rush they have lacked the pass defense should be much improved in 2008. They forced a lot of turnovers in 2007. Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.

That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing touchdowns. They got 3rd receiver type production out of their number one and number two receivers. Darrell Bevell said this about the Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings 3rd year QB, “"He's been outstanding this offseason," Bevell said. "He's been in here watching, studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."

Jackson is the key to the 2008 season for the Vikings and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their pass game. Jackson progressed well in year 2 and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs and possibly advance to a Super Bowl they need him to progress even more.

Even if Jackson is improving, the Vikings still have a weak receiving core. Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven number one receiver even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to develop. Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson are journeymen players. The Vikings have a lot of #2 and #3 receivers, but nobody that screams dominant number one guy. Berrian and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.

Prediction: I think the Vikings are in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in Peterson. The defensive line is probably the best in the NFL. They have a great offensive line. All the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.

The question mark is the quarterback and the passing game. If Jackson were a proven commodity I would say the Vikings would be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is they were 1st in rush offense and defense a year ago and that got them 8-8. The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far as he takes them.

The schedule looks tougher than it really is. The Vikings caught a number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that record. They drew no cold weather sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally struggle with. They face the easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16 before closing with the NY Giants at home. That bodes well for them taking control of the division with a late season surge.

I look for the Vikings to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004. I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their franchise history and their first divisional title since their NFC Central crown back in 2000.

Minnesota Vikings’ Record: 11-5 – NFC North Divisional Champion; NFC #2 Seed

2) Green Bay Packers

07 Record: 13-3

Points Scored: 435 (4th)

Points Allowed: 291 (6th)

Playoff Result: Lost NFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Packers had an unbelievably balanced team in 2007. They finished 4th in points scored and 6th in points allowed. Favre had an impressive season, finishing 2nd in the MVP race. Grant had the most yards of any back in the NFL not named Tomlinson in the second half of the regular season. Mason Cosby finished 2nd in the Pro Bowl voting at kicker. Other than at Chicago, Ryan did a decent job of punting. Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in that regard.

There were few changes that needed to be made and people assumed #4 would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008 and now one player leaving has created a lot of questions. It is hard to judge the Packers 2008 chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front 7 and the corners.

The Packers have an extremely deep defensive line. Kampan is a great pass rusher that supports the run well. Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell and others provide good depth.

The linebackers support the run well, but they struggle to cover the pass and in particular the tight end. That should improve simply by not facing Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey this season. Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule and they need to improve in that area. Barnett is always solid and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.

The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best corner duo in the NFL. They are extremely physical. While they draw a lot of interference calls they make up for it with picks, stopping 3rd downs, and wearing down receivers. However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up and down first year starting, but ended up being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December and was lights out in the playoffs. He needs to play like he did at the end of the year. The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and dime packages. They need players to step up there.

All in all this is a very young defensive unit other than the corners. This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.

Weaknesses: It’s been a long time since we said the offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Pack finds themselves in 2008. I don’t want to come across as having the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year and I like a lot of things the Packers have going on offense. But I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the Packers did. To assume a 4th year QB that has yet to start a NFL game can just step in and keep the ball rolling is not realistic. It is not fair to Aaron Rodgers.

With regards to Rodgers, he may very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packer fan I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to say he is definitely going to succeed. Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing. I like how he has progressed in making reads and his command of the offense since his rookie year. That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability. The injuries have been freakish in nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all time most durable starting quarterback’s backup. Brian Braum is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

The receivers are solid and the strength of the offense. They are great athletes and ranked number one in yards after the catch. Driver is a veteran presence, Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and Jones, Martin, and Nelson all provide good depth. Lee had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help Rodgers make the transition.

Remember that the yards after the catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of #4’s ability to throw the deep ball. Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect Rodger’s deep ball. I expect those guys to be solid and put up good numbers, but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were in 2007.

The offensive line is interesting. The tackles are good, but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed and became a strength of the team. Part of the reason that the Packers could go so many 4 and 5 wide receiver sets is because of #4’s command of the offense and his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. The Packers surrendered only 19 sacks, tied for 3rd in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more 4 and 5 receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at receiver.

Finally, we get to the running back. Who is the real Ryan Grant? Is he the back that had 201 yards and 3 touchdowns against Seattle or the one that had 29 yards and 0 touchdowns against the Giants? 1 would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. 10 games are not enough to anoint a guy a star running back. The Packers are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers and he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see from defenses. He is perfect for that zone-blocking scheme and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and 7-9 touchdowns.

Prediction: I find it entertaining how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality that the Packers have a great young team and Rodgers is just ready to step in based on a good half against Dallas.

Since 1992 the Packers have finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006. In 2007 the Packers finished 2nd in passing yards, 4th in points scored, 6th in touchdown passes, and 11th in interceptions thrown.

This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Montana and his 16 touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring from the Dolphins in 1999. Those guys are All Time Greats, but were very average at the end of their career. Even if you take out the fact the Packers are losing an All-Time Great player and leader, they are still losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important position.

There are still a lot of good players on the team. I don’t expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show they can still win and will be motivated to do well without #4. There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.

Had Favre come back, I would have thought 10-6 or 11-5 would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule. The Packers have a lot of tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at New Orleans, Indy, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. I think you are going to see games where they amaze and games where they really struggle. A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is a realistic expectation. They should be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009 if their young players continue to grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions at the offensive tackles and cornerback.

Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8 – NFC North 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Detroit Lions

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 346 (16th)

Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.543) (10th in NFL)

Strengths: The Lions had a great passing attack under passing guru Mike Martz. He is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in the division and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald give him a lot of weapons. Roy Williams is a solid target and Calvin Johnson is a freak and should have a much better 2nd year now that he has experience and is healthy. The Lions should be able to throw the ball and put points up on the board. Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked 2nd in 2006 and 1st in 2007 in that regard. He also has to take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.

This was a team that started the 2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7. When they were winning their passing offense was not the only thing carrying them. They were good at forcing turnovers early in the season. The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL, which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished 9th in sacks with 37. That made up for their 31st ranked pass defense. Fernando Bryant is no longer with the team. Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that regard.

Shaun Rodgers is gone from the defensive line. It will be interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd in the NFL with him. Corry Redding and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but never really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks there wasn’t much this defense did right in 2007.

Jason Hanson is still the kicker and a mainstay in Detroit. He has been with the Lions since 1992 and is considered one of the more reliable kickers in the NFL.

Weaknesses: This team really lacked a running game. They ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that. Keep in mind that he coached Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson in St Louis. While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful backs in his system. Part of the Lions inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor offensive line, and defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.

The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones and TJ Duckett and retained Tatum Bell. They drafted Kevin Smith in the 3rd round. They are also instituting a zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL. The Lions still figure to be weak running the ball in 2008. Zone blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good nor does it make bad running backs great. I watched Green Bay make that transition and it took over a year to see results. Bell had good games in a zone-blocking scheme in Denver. He needs to step up his production in 2008. It will be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split time.

The offensive line needs to improve on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007. That is one reason why the Lions throw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people down field. When you finish last in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and give up the 3rd most sacks there aren’t many positives to look at on the offensive line. That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus in the first round. He will be asked to step in immediately.

On defense they have to hope the people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their front 7 to stop the run and create pressure. Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in Denver. Until the Lions improve on stopping the run it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out of their secondary.

Prediction: The Lions were a team that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that team would crash in the second half of the season and they did just that. Matt Millen has proven time and time again that he cannot draft well and that he is unable to put his coaches in a position to succeed. There are good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.

The Lions have a good passing offense and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take pressure of that offense. Their receivers will cause problems for team and I expect a decent offensive showing from the Lions.

What I also expect is they will struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to give them fits with their defense. Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in division games. What it amounts to is Kitna predicting 10 wins and reality delivering another 6 or 7 win season and another year of missing the playoffs.

Detroit Lions’ Record: 6-10 – NFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Chicago Bears

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 348 (16th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Bears have always had offensive issues. What they traditionally relied on was a very strong defense. In 2005 they finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. In their 2006 Super Bowl season they finished 3rd and 5th in those areas. They have been one of the best teams at forcing turnovers. That has allowed the less than stellar offense to work with a short field and control the clock with the run.

That never panned out last season. The Bears offense was still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher was hurt and did not play up to his standards. Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.

The defensive line is still strong. Tommy Harris is a fantastic defensive tackle. Alex Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.

The linebackers are still great too. Urlacher is one of the best in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy; as he did sign the long-term deal he had been looking for the last couple seasons. He is a 3-time Pro Bowler.

In the secondary Brown, Tillman, Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning and McBride give the Bears a number of people for coverage and making big plays. They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that they will be able to force turnovers, which is a must for a Cover 2 team. That will help offense produce enough in short field situations to give the Bears defense leads and rest. If that happens there is still enough defensive talent to carry this team to the playoffs.

Last, but certainly not least are the special teams. Devin Hester. He is the Bears best weapon at this point. After just 2 seasons he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the NFL. He makes a lot of big plays in the return game and as a wide receiver. The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special teams specialist. Finally, Robbie Gould is a solid kicker. The Bears probably have the best special teams in the NFL.

Weaknesses: The problem is there just isn’t a lot of talent on offense. As bad as it was last year it is worse in 2008. That starts with the quarterbacks. Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown they are capable of leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their 06 Super Bowl run. They need one of them to emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will. The Bears did nothing to sign a quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.

Then we get to receiver. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis. None of those guys are acceptable #3 receivers on average passing teams at this point. It is either possession receivers or home run hitters. There is no receiver that is a complete package in the group. The fact that two of them must start is not good news for the passing game. Clark and Olson are quality tight ends and the best targets this team has in the passing game.

Then there is the offensive line. Fred Miller was released this summer at tackle. They hope Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster at 29. The line is starting to get old and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those positions. Fred Miller was not the only thing holding that line back.

Finally, there is the running back spot. Benson has been waived after 2 arrests in 5 weeks. Adrian Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out below average backfield. As a whole, the Bears offense is among the most unproven in the NFL. There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team strength. It should finish among the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.

Prediction: I know Bears fans will point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average offense. That they went 11-5 and won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense in 2005. The feeling in Chicago is that defense wins championships and the Bears have the defense.

I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have started to get older. Urlacher is starting to have health issues and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two this defense becomes average very quickly. Last season the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team and they really struggled as a team to consistently win. The Bears first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17 after they had been eliminated from playoff contention.

This year the offense is even worse. Benson, Berrian, and Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears have. Griese is no longer around if Grossman struggles. There are a lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they were in 2005 and 2006.

The Bears get a very tough schedule. The Colts, Jags, and Titans all have tremendous defenses. The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are traditionally tough on defense. That is half their schedule that they may not score more than 10-14 points per game against. The defense will keep the Bears in those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many victories.

The Bears window has closed in my opinion and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some younger pieces on defense. Only time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.

Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11 – NFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

As I had promised earlier, I was going to release the 5 teams that received a kind deal from the NFL schedule maker and 5 teams that were not treated as well.  I wanted to wait until after the draft before I made my final call on that.  There are a couple things to keep in mind.  1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division.  I know Cleveland has a tough schedule as well.  14 of their 16 opponents are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule.  What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules?  I tried to pick teams from different divisions when breaking down the schedule.  2) I tried to give deference to stretches of tough or easy games over overall schedule.  While one team may have a similar strength of schedule, if those tough games are bunched into 6 weeks, I think that makes for a tougher schedule. 

 Without further delay, here is my list:

 5 Teams that Were Brutalized by the NFL Schedule Maker

1)    Pittsburgh Steelers – This is by far the most brutal schedule in the NFL.   The Steelers face 8 different playoff teams from 2007.  They also face Cleveland twice, which won 10 games and finished a tiebreaker out of the playoffs.  Here is their schedule from Week 5 to Week 14: 5) at Jacksonville, 6) Bye, 7) at Cincinnati, 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) at New England, 14) Dallas.

Thank god for the Bengals or there would be no easy games.  In particular that stretch playing Indy, San Diego, at New England, and Dallas is brutal.  The Steelers opponents winning percentage in 2008 was .598.  That is toughest in the NFL.  Their only opponents that had losing records in 2007 are Cincinnati (2) and Baltimore (2).  When you consider that most people feel the Ravens had a very quality draft, they should be improved in 2008.  The Steelers did well in the draft and have a solid nucleus returning in 2008.  However, they have no favors when it comes to the schedule. 

2)    Indianapolis – It is bad enough having to play in the AFC South where both Jacksonville and Tennessee made the playoffs.  They have the following stretch of games: 7) at Green Bay, 8) at Tennessee, 9) New England, 10) at Pittsburgh, 11) Houston, 12) at San Diego, 13) at Cleveland.

That is 5 playoff teams in 7 weeks.  Cleveland was a 10 game winner that was very busy in free agency.  There are 3 road games in 4 weeks with the only home game being against New England.  The winning percentage of the Colts opponents in 2007 was .594, which is not that much behind the Steelers.  When you consider the pass rushers Jacksonville added and the Colts not having a first round pick, I believe the gap has closed between Indy and the rest of that division.  While the Colts are still very talented, they will have more than their share of obstacles to repeat in the AFC South.

3)    Green Bay Packers – When you look at the NFL schedule, you can begin to see why Brett Favre didn’t think returning to the playoffs based on the development of the team would be enough to ensure a playoff birth.  Here is their schedule from Week 3 through 11.  3) Dallas, 4) at Tampa Bay, 5) Atlanta, 6)      at Seattle, 7) Indianapolis, 8) Bye, 9) at Tennessee, 10) at Minnesota, 11) Chicago, 12) at New Orleans.

That is a lot of tough games.  5 of those 9 teams are playoff teams.  Minnesota has added Jared Allen and the Packers couldn’t beat the Bears last year when the Pack won 13 games. Two of the Pack’s 3 losses were to Chicago.  New Orleans could return to their 2006 form this season.  The only victory that would seem certain is the Atlanta game at home.  The Packer’s opponents winning percentage in 2007 was .531.  The Packers aren’t going to have much time to adjust to life without #4.  They had best get out of the gate fast, because the schedule will be unforgiving if they need to make up ground starting in Week 6. 

4)    Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are naturally going to have a tough schedule seeing that they were one of 3 teams that made the playoffs in their own division.  Furthermore, the Eagles were 8-8 and signed the biggest free agent in the offseason in Samuel.  Still, the Cowboys have a brutal stretch in the middle of the season.  8) Tampa Bay, 9) at NY Giants, 11) at Washington, 12) San Francisco, 13) Seattle, 14) at Pittsburgh, 15) NY Giants.

That would be 6 playoff opponents in 7 weeks for the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys overall schedule had a winning percentage of .523 in 2007.  The Cowboys had a 13-3 record in 2007 and potentially added 4 key pieces on draft weekend to go along with Zach Thomas.  They did what they needed to do to keep pace.  However, they will not be able to have the lapses they had at the end of the season in 2007, otherwise their schedule is strong enough to make them pay in 2008.

5)    Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks don’t have that 8 game stretch where they play a bunch of playoff opponents.  Playing in the NFC West helps in that regard.  Still, the Seahawks opponents had a .477 winning percentage in 2007.  Of note there are 2 three game stretches that could give the Hawks some issues.  5) at NY Giants, 6) Green Bay, 7) at Tampa Bay & 12) Washington, 13) at Dallas, 14) New England.

The Seahawks have some nice games against Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo, St Louis (2), and San Francisco (2).  Arizona is probably their most formidable opponent in the division.  It is imperative that they take care of those teams and not suffer any lapses.  This shouldn’t be like 2007 when they played 2 playoff teams the entire season and none in the last 10 weeks of the season.  If the Seahawks stumble where they shouldn’t, the schedule will be much less forgiving. 

5 Teams that Were Spared by the NFL Schedule Maker

1)    New England Patriots – It must be pretty nice to be coming off a 16-0 regular season and not only get the 7th pick in the draft, but get the league’s easiest schedule at .387.  Part of that is due to the 1-15 Dolphins and 4-12 NY Jets residing in their division.  Still, here are there first 4 opponents:  1) Kansas City. 2) at NY Jets, 3) Miami, 4) Bye, 5) at San Francisco. 

The only time they play 2007 playoff opponents in back to back weeks are Pittsburgh and Seattle in Weeks 13 and 14.  There are only 4 playoff opponents out of 16 on their schedule.  That is the minimum a team that finished in 1st place can play the following season.  I’m sure the NY Jets will be better and that there will be some surprises on their schedule.  However, considering the season the Patriots had and the changes they are making on defense, they got a very favorable schedule.  It is easy not only in terms of overall quality, but the lack of quality they play in the first 5 weeks of the season while those new parts become acclimated to the Patriot’s way. 

2)    San Diego Chargers – Very similar situation to the Patriots.  They play in a bad division and therefore only drew 4 playoff opponents out of a possible 16 opponents on their schedule.  Their first 5 opponents are 1) Carolina, 2) at Denver, 3) NY Jets, 4) at Oakland, 5) at Miami.

The Chargers have a few tougher obstacles that the Patriots.  They did draw Pittsburgh and Indy in back to back weeks for Week 11 and 12.  New Orleans could rebound from their dismal 2007 campaign.  Overall, the Chargers look like they are in pretty good shape with this schedule too.  Playing in the AFC West is a blessing in of itself.  Combined with 3 games against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami gives the Chargers an easier road than most.

3)    New Orleans Saints – I believe the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints to have a bounce back season in 2008.  Here is their schedule from Week 3 to 11.  3) at Denver, 4) San Francisco, 5) Minnesota, 6) Oakland, 7) at Carolina, 8) San Diego, 9) Bye, 10) at Atlanta, 11) at Kansas City.

Consider that there is only one playoff team from 2007 in that 7 game mix.  The Saints schedule had a winning percentage of .449 in 2007.  They play against the weak AFC West.  The NFC North is a relative unknown in 2008.  Who knows if Minnesota will be able to win given their QB situation, if the Bears will return to their 06 level, or if the Packers can survive without Favre?

Furthermore, the Saints divisional leader (Tampa) won only 9 games in 2007 and has several issues of their own.  Tampa fans will remind you that is because Tampa tanked the last couple games of the season.  Still, most objective people will agree the Bucs were the weakest divisional champion in 2007.  If New Orleans has fixed their defensive problems this offseason and can run the ball in 2008, the schedule sets up nicely for them.

4)    Arizona Cardinals -  I know, I know.  People have been telling you that Arizona is the team to watch in the NFC West since Denny Green took over.  Every year they find a way to win 8 games or less.  But, when you look at this schedule, they should get off to a great start.  Here is what they are looking at:  1) at San Francisco, 2) Miami, 3) at Washington, 4) at NY Jets, 5) Buffalo, 6) Dallas, 7) Bye, 8) at Carolina, 9) at St. Louis, 10) San Francisco. 

That is exactly 2 playoff teams in their first 9 games.  The overall schedule has a winning percentage of .465, so it is fairly friendly when compared to other teams.  They have to make sure they aren’t depending on the end of the season to win games.  They finish 15) Minnesota, 16) at New England, 17) Seattle.  However, if the Cardinals can continue to progress in year 2 of the Ken Whisenhunt program they will be in good shape to be competing either for the division or a wild card spot come the end of the season.

5)    Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota has a schedule where their opponents won .551 of their games in 2007.  Many people will not have them on the easy column.  However, I go further than just looking at percentages.  They get Green Bay on the road in Week 1.  That is huge, seeing the Packers will be playing their first game without Brett Favre.  They are retiring Favre’s number.  Rodgers is going to be as nervous as he ever will be.  What better time to play Green Bay on the road and potentially steal an early season divisional win on the road?

Second, they will not be playing any cold games.  Here is their schedule for November and December: 9) Houston, 10) Green Bay, 11) at Tampa Bay, 12) at Jacksonville, 13) Chicago, 14) at Detroit, 15) at Arizona, 16) Atlanta, 17) NY Giants.  That is huge for a team that traditionally does not play well in the elements.

Third, they don’t really have any stretches where they play multiple impossible games.  I really like them to do well from Week 13-16.  That is when teams are making their playoff push.  Week 1 and 2 at Green Bay and at home against Indy will be tough.  They play Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and at Jacksonville in Week 10-12.  Green Bay and Tampa Bay are two teams that many people will not pick to repeat in the playoffs this season.  If that is your worst stretch of games, then things aren’t too bad.

While the numbers suggest that Minnesota has a tough schedule, the retirement of Brett Favre is not factored into that.  Take out Green Bay’s record and the Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of .513, which is much more manageable.  While the Vikings didn’t get a gift from the NFL, it isn’t nearly as bad as you might think.  The Vikings set up well to take an up for grab NFC North if they can survive the tough slate of AFC South games.

There you have it.  What did you think of your team’s schedule for 2008?  How do you think I broke down the schedule?  Do you think I am disrespecting a certain team’s schedule or not giving another team’s enough credit?  Let me know your thoughts.

I apologize for being on such a long hiatus.  While the NFL season is year long event I needed a break from my blog.  As a Packer fan it has definitely been a long month.  I can not wait for the draft to arrive so that we can tally up some winners and losers there and start making some predictions for 2008.   While the draft does not happen for another 3 weeks I have completed a mock draft.  I encourage you to check it out at:  http://fantasyfootballmaniaxs.alexia.us/inde
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After the opening weekend of free agency I gave an opinion as to who my top five winners and losers were of the opening weekend.  I think that we have had enough activity in free agency to tally up some winners and losers from the entire Free Agency Period of the NFL off season.  Assuming that nothing major happens between now and the NFL draft here are my 5 winners and 5 losers:

5 Winners

1) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. I think the Browns made the best of a bad situation.  They didn’t have a first round pick this year thanks to their Brady Quinn trade of a year ago.  They weren’t going to dominate the draft in 2008.  What they did do is improve their team by giving free agent dollars and draft picks for guys that have not turned 30 years old.  Corey Williams will be 28-years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29.  Stallworth will be 28 in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. Their signings should be relevant to the Browns organization for years to come.

The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency and try to pass the Steelers in the AFC North.  While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it like some other teams in the NFL that I will mention later. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it by acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. The Browns were not that far away from the Steelers last season.  If these moves pan out watch out for the Browns in the always intriguing AFC North. 

2) New Orleans Saints – The Saints did a lot of nice things to open free agency. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured in 2007 he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets began playing when Herm Edwards left. If he can re-emerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Bringing in Dan Morgan is a risk, but it was only for a one year deal.  If he can stay healthy he will contribute.  Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not the gigantic signing that was Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27-years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Deverey Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense.

I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season.  Considering they have the 10th pick in the draft they have a lot of flexibility to add another immediate impact player and improve this team that is only a year removed from the NFC Title Game. 

3) Tennessee Titans – I like how this team has built on their run to the wildcard last season.  They signed guard Jake Scott away from the Colts which helps them and hurts a division rival.  The money was reasonable at 4 years for $5.0 million per year.  They signed Alge Crumpler after he was released by the Falcons.  He should help considerably if he can stay healthy by giving Young a go to target in the red zone and third down.  They were able to bring Jevon Kearse back to the Titans.  He is a former Titan that should help if his health holds up.  They also added WR Justin McCareins from the Jets. 

These aren’t players that will send shivers down opposing fan’s spines, but they are solid players that will help the Titans win football games in 2008.  This is a team that sat out of the opening week of free agency, but was able to add solid veterans at salary friendly contracts.  The biggest key for them going forward is to have a solid draft and resolve the contract dispute with Albert Haynesworth.  He is essential to their defense.  While there were other teams that broke the bank the Titans added good talent, but stayed smart.  I think that conservative approach will pay off. 

4) - Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why in the Andy Reid era; year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL.  They were able to eliminate some older players from their roster in Spikes and Kearse and signed the most coveted free agent on the market in Samuel.  While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. Then instead of canceling out a good signing by overpaying someone they stayed put and are going to use the draft to continue to improve their roster.  The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a #### and built on that by maintaining a conservative approach. 

5) Atlanta Falcons – Very similar to what the Eagles did.  They made their big splash by signing Michael the Burner Turner to a large deal.  He should give them a nice weapon rushing the ball and is a much better compliment to the skill set of Norwood than Dunn was.  Then they do a bunch of smaller moves.  They resign Harrington and Redman to contracts.  This gives them the flexibility to either draft Ryan or go in a different direction later in the draft.  Both are decent stop gap guys when developing a franchise quarterback.  They signed Jason Elam which upgrades the kicking game.  They get a second round pick for Hall and rid themselves of a locker room problem.   They rid themselves of a big salary by releasing Crumpler.  All of these moves will allow them to continue to rebuild a franchise that was devastated by the conviction of Michael Vick.  While I don’t think the Falcons will compete for the playoffs next season, I do think they are on the road to recovery.  Instead of trying to throw money at their problems and make it worse they seem to have a solid plan going forward.

5  Losers

1) Green Bay Packers – I actually had the Packers on the winner side after the opening weekend for getting a 2nd round pick from Cleveland for a player in Corey Williams that they had absolutely no intention of keeping.  What a difference a couple of days made.  On March 4, 2008 the Packer fortunes changed forever when future Hall of Famer and all time great NFL quarterback Brett Favre announced his retirement from the NFL.  Franchise Quarterbacks are extremely tough to replace.  Hall of Fame players that have been the face of the franchise for over 15 years are next to impossible.  While life will go on for the Packers this loss will hurt significantly, especially in the 2008 season.

The Packers have a promising backup in Aaron Rodgers.  For all the people that think he is the answer because o####ood showing in the Dallas game I encourage you to research the career of Buffalo Bills quarterback Rob Johnson, who was given franchise dollars based on one game as the Jaguars backup.  The Dallas game is zero indication of the starting quarterback Rodgers will become.  The encouraging thing is that Rodgers does appear to have made strides since his first training camp in Green Bay.  The bad news is that he has had injury problems as the backup.  He broke his ankle in 2006 missing the second half of season.  Last year he pulled his hamstring in practice and was inactive for the end of the regular season.  If the Packers are going to be contender in 2008 they can’t replace the Iron Man with the China Doll.  Rodgers must stay healthy as the options behind him are bleak. 

The Packers have no way of replacing a player of Brett Favre’s talents in the draft or free agency for next season and even though they have a young and promising team, quarterback is the most important position on the team.  Losing a Hall of Fame Quarterback is huge and makes them the big loser of the 2008 off season. 

2) New York Jets – The Jets have been experts at getting old and average talent for millions this off season.  The Jets signed OG Alan Faneca to a five year $40 million dollar deal.  OT Damien Woody to a 5 year $25.5 million dollar deal.  Bubba Franks was signed to a 1 year $1.65 million dollar contract for being an injury case in Green Bay.  Tony Richardson who is an aging injured player was signed away from the Vikings.  On defense they signed ex-Cardinals OLB Calvin Pace to a six year, $42 million contract.  They traded a third and fifth round pick for ex-Panthers DT Kris Jenkins and proceeded to sign him to a 5 year $35.0 million dollar contract.  Then to top everything off they guaranteed the last $11.0 million of Cole’s salary. 

Ladies and Gentleman, I introduce to you the new and recently relocated Washington Redskins.  The only player that I would have been happy with my favorite team signing was Faneca.  Pace is a good player, but not worth the investment the Jets paid him.  Everyone else I see as either consistently injured, consistently old, or consistently underachieving.  In some cases it is all three.  The fact that they mortgaged their salary cap future to overpay average to below average talent speaks volumes that this team is not headed toward contention anytime soon.   

3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. I like what they did a little better than the Jets, because I think Hall has the ability to be a shut down corner and Gibril Wilson has the potential to be a Pro Bowl safety.  At least they signed some younger players than the Jets.  Still this free agent grab produced some embarrassing signings.  Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million. He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed. I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season. He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle. They allowed a healthy Joey Porter to walk and did not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him. Then they signed Javon Walker who has had knee issues the last few seasons to a 6 year $55.0 million dollar deal.  That one boggles my mind.  He is just too injured to warrant that big of a payout.

The Commitment to Excellence became to the Commitment to Overspending in 2008.  When you combine that with the uncertainty surrounding Lane Kiffin you have the potential for a very entertaining soap opera for those outside the Raiders Nation.

4) New England Patriots – Other than 2007 the Patriots are consistently on this side of the report, yet continue to compete for division titles. However, the Patriots have suffered a lot of losses this off season.  Samuel was signed by the Eagles, Eugene Wilson was signed by the Buccaneers, and #### was signed by the Saints.  Harrison was probably a player they needed to replace in their secondary and he is coming back.  They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin. They have suffered a lot of losses on defense. They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary destroyed.  While they did address those losses by signing Fernando Bryant, Tank Williams, and Lewis Sanders that does not replace what they lost.  While the 7th pick can address a major area of need it can’t rebuild an entire secondary and linebacker core.

Then you have to look at the offense.  Keeping Randy Moss was huge.  Had they not the Patriots would have been my number one loser of the off season, even with the Favre retirement.  Stallworth was signed by the Browns. While his numbers suggest it is a manageable loss it hurts in the fact that a safety had to respect his speed.  The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for.  I think their approach is sounder than the Jets and Raiders.  I still think they paid a hefty price this off season. 

5) Minnesota Vikings – I didn’t like the Vikings off season beginning with the overpayment of Berrian.  The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money.  This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play. Even if he had a good quarterback, I don’t see him as an elite player.  He drops the ball too much for the production he gives.  Furthermore, the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield strikes. Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams to a $33 million deal, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money. He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career for a Cincinnati team that can’t stop anyone either.  I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.

The Vikings did better than NY Jets and Oakland by not completely surrendering their future.  They only overpaid for two players not 5 or 6.  They didn’t lose the Hall of Famer the Packers did or the multiple talented players the Patriots lost.  Entering the off season the Vikings needed to 1) Upgrade their passing offense, and 2) Upgrade their passing defense. 

Here is my issue.  They received a huge break by having their division rival’s Hall of Fame QB retire.  The Bears are rebuilding their offense and their defense was down last season.  The Lions have been rebuilding since Barry Sanders retired.  The Vikings have arguably the best weapon in the division with Peterson and the division is theirs for the taking.  Yet entering the draft you have the exact same question marks you had about the team last season.

The fact is that by the start of next season the Vikings offensive line will be in its prime years.  Birk will be 32, Hutchinson will be 31 in November, and McKinnie will be 29 in September.  The Vikings have one of the most promising weapons in the NFL in Adrian Peterson.  The time is now to try to shoot to the top of the NFC North.  I think they needed to have the mentality that the Cleveland Browns had this off season, and I just didn’t see it.  I haven’t seen them do the things they need to do to take control of division that is theirs to control.  Even though Peterson will be better in year 2; a bad pass defense and lack of a passing game will produce another 8-8 season.   

That’s my take on free agency in the NFL. Remember, the draft is where the Super Bowl is won and lost.  Being a loser or winner in the free agency period is not necessarily a pivotal moment in a franchise’s off season.  There are still a lot more developments to come. I expect to do a draft recap after the April 26th NFL draft and will start doing my division previews in the beginning to middle of May.  Stay tuned.

I have maintained that the NFL is the best way to build your team into an NFL Champion.  Teams year after year throw around dollars foolishly and waste draft picks in an attempt for a quick fix.  Rarely does that type of strategy work.

Some teams definitely benefited from the opening weekend of free agency.  Here would be my winners and losers:

5 Winners

1) Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL.  Not only were they able to land the most sought after free agency, but also they were able to add a player that should succeed in their system.  While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing.  He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England.  The other thing I like about the move is that it makes them stronger against a rival.  The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of weapons in the passing game.  Green Bay has a lot of good wide receivers.  The Saints have a strong passing offense.  This move allows the Eagles to either keep Shepherd, Brown, and Samuel to form a terrific cornerback core and will allow them to cover those passing offenses.  It also gives them the flexibility to trade Shepherd and acquire additional draft picks. The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense.  The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense.  I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a ####. 

2) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades.  However, considering the Browns don’t have a first round pick this year anyway they didn’t have a lot of flexibility to dominate this draft anyway.  What they did do is improve their defensive line with younger players.  Corey Williams will be 28 years old when the season starts.  Shaun Rogers will be 29 years old.  Stallworth will be 28 years old in November.  While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed.  That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed.  Derek Anderson is still young.  Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation.  These players should be relevant for years to come.  The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years.  It was time to try to make a splash in free agency.  While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it.  They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players.  They did it be acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career.  If these guys can fit into Cleveland’s system the Browns may have gone a long way to making themselves a contender in the AFC North.  

3) New Orleans Saints – The Saints hit the ground running in free agency to improve their defense.  They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft.  While he was injured he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets play.  If he can remerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal.  Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years.  While he is not Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary.  They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27 years old this year and should help their defensive line.  They were able to retain Devery Henderson, which will help their offense.  They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense.   I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007.  The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season. 

4) New York Giants – People will be surprised that I have the Giants here considering they lost 3 players on their defense.  The reason I liked what the Giants did is they didn’t fall into the trap of trying to overpay to keep their own players.  Wilson signed a 6 year $39 million contract.  Mitchell signed a 5 year $17 million contract.  Torbor signed with Miami.  The Giants would have liked to keep those players but it would have cost them too much to do so.  While all those players made key plays in the Super Bowl run the heart of the defense was the front 4.  That is still there.  By not hitting the panic button Reese has given his club a chance to improve through the draft.  His vision paid off last season and I expect him to do more of the same this season.  While it may hurt his team in the short run it won’t hurt him as much as it will the Raiders who severely overpaid for Wilson’s services. 

5) Green Bay Packers – Here is why I put the Packers on the list.  They handled the Corey Williams situation about as well as anyone could.  The Packers were loaded with depth at defensive tackle.  They drafted Harrell in the first round last season.  They have Pickett and Jolly.  Jenkins plays on the inside in passing situations.  They had no room for Corey Williams.  Yet they applied the franchise tag and were able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy they selected in the 6th round in 2004.  Not a bad return on that investment.  The Packers now have a lot of flexibility.  If there is a player they really want in the draft they can trade up and get that player without sacrificing their entire draft.  They can trade down and acquire additional picks.  To be able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy that no longer fit in their plans was a great way to open the free agency weekend.  The Packers are never a big player in free agency anyway.  Thompson has to be ecstatic to add a 2nd round pick to his draft arsenal. 

5 Losers

1) New England Patriots – I know the Patriot way.  We don’t Rebuild we just Reload.  They don’t overpay for people.  But consider what they have lost.  Samuel was signed by the Eagles and #### was signed by the Saints.  That is a huge blow to their secondary.  They also may lose Eugene Wilson to the Titans.  At least they still have 35-year-old Rodney Harrison.  They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin.  They have suffered a lot of losses on defense.  They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary blown up.  Then you have to look at the offense.  Faulk is allegedly getting high and smoking weed everyday.  Stallworth was signed by the Browns.  Moss has not yet resigned.  There are reports he is mad at the Patriots and that the negotiations have hit a snag.  He has been rumored to go everywhere from Dallas to Green Bay to Denver.  If they lose both Stallworth and Moss they are basically in the same situation they were entering last season with linebackers that are now 2 years older.  We’ll see how Welker fares without those other two drawing coverage.   The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for.  That philosophy will be tested as much as ever this offseason.  They have lost a lot of talent.  While the Patriots are still the favorite to win the AFC East they will probably find it much harder to win with the ease they showed in 2007.

2) New York Jets – A lot of people have the Jets in the winner column.  I disagree.  Faneca agreed Saturday on a five-year, $40 million contract, with $21 million in guaranteed money.  That is a lot of money for a guy that will be 32 in September.  While it may upgrade them in the short term the cap consequence could be enormous.  He is great in run blocking but is average in pass protection.  They probably could have kept Pete Kendall around last year for far less money.  It just doesn’t make sense for that much money.  The Kris Jenkins trade was stupid.  The Jets gave up a 3rd and 5th round pick to the Panthers for a guy that has missed the 2004 and 2005 seasons.  While he has been healthy in 2006 and 2007 he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2002 and 2003.  The Jets then decided that they needed to give Jenkins a raise to the tune of a five-year contract worth $35 million, including $20 million in guaranteed money.  That’s a big gamble for a 29-year old player with that injury history.  We’ll see if the $41 million the Jets gave in guaranteed contracts actually pays off beyond 2008 or 2009. 

3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery.  That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million.  He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed.  I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season.  He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle.  Then they signed safety Gibril Wilson to a $39 dollar contract.  I don’t see the Raiders defense being any better in 2008 with these two moves and they broke the bank to do it.  The only smart thing the Raiders did this offseason was allowing Joey Porter to walk and not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him.  As long as Al Davis continues to make moves like this the Commitment to Excellence will only be a slogan.

4) San Francisco 49ers – I liked the signing of Isaac Bruce.  It gives the 49ers a veteran presence at WR and someone that is familiar with the Mike Martz system.  Adding DeShaun Foster was a solid move.  He is good insurance for Gore.  But they destroyed all the good things they did by signing a Bengal defender.  The six-year, $45 million deal that the 49ers signed with Justin Smith reportedly includes $20 million guaranteed.  That is a waste of salary cap space.  Justin Smith was an above average player on a bad defense.  He has only 43.5 sacks in 7 seasons.  His career high is 8.5 sacks his rookie year.  He had 2 sacks in 16 games last season.  He is a 4-3 end that is switching to a 3-4.  That might not translate, although you would think he could get more than 2 sacks.  I can’t see that investment paying off.  It appears the 49ers have learned nothing from their 2007 spending spree that did little to bring more wins to the table.  The 49ers would have been well served to invest in other areas. 

5) Minnesota Vikings – The Bears did good to concentrate their free agency dollars on Briggs and not Berrian.  The Vikings would have been wise to do the same thing.  The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money, which makes him the fourth-highest paid receiver in the league.  He is hardly the 4th best receiver in the league.   This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play.  The problem is the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield throws.  Furthermore, he drops the ball too much.  I don’t think the Vikings will get what they hoped out of this investment.  The loss will hurt the Bears in that they don’t have any proven receiving talent, but it won’t help the Vikings to waste all that cap space on a receiver that has never had 1,000 yards in a season.  Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams $33 million, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money.  He played on the vaunted Cincinnati pass defense last season.  He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career.  I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.

That’s my wrap up of the opening weekend in free agency.  There are still a lot more developments to come, mainly what is to become of Randy Moss and will Brett Favre decide to hang it up after a 17 year NFL Hall of Fame career.  There is never a dull moment in the NFL.  To keep up with all the developments make sure you check out The Fantasy Football Maniaxs for additional articles by myself and other talented writers:

www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com

 

Now that everyone has recoverd from watching the Pro Bowl it is time to get back to business.  The Patriots losing Super Bowl XLII has created the opportunity to do a lot of interesting articles that many of us never thought were possible just one week ago.  In addition to recapping the Super Bowl I have looked at the Patriots standing among the greatest teams never to win a Super Bowl Ring.  But as our famous Little Red Riding Hood so eloquently put, "The Past is in the Past."

One of the more interesting takes I have seen on the message boards is the sentiment by Patriots fans that the fans of the other 31 NFL clubs need not worry, because the Patriots will be back in the Bowl again next season.  While I can't blame them for being optimistic I get a kick out of that.  You would think after being so certain that their team would go 19-0 that it would take a little longer than a week for the Patriot fans to count their 19-0 Shirts before they hatch.  Many of them were singing the next year chant the very night the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

Seeing the Past is in the Past I figured it would be interesting to see if the Future is also the Future.  I don't have Tea Leaves or a Crystal Ball that can see the future.  Therefore I decided to do what I often do in these situations.  I look at NFL History.   Is Boston Fan correct in assuming that his or her team will be back on the biggest stage as early as next season?

I decided to look at this from 3 different perspectives.  1) How have the teams that finished a season with one or fewer losses since 1960 done the following season? 2) How have teams done the season after losing the Super Bowl? 3) How long have the previous dynasties managed to keep their Window of Dominance open? 

1) If you look at how the teams with one loss or fewer did the next season since 1960 it really doesn't look promising for the Patriots.  Here is how the teams did after losing 1 game or fewer the season after their historic run.

1962 Packers (13-1) - Finished 11-2-1 in 1963.  Second in Division - No Playoffs
1968 Colts (13-1) - Finished 8-5-1 in 1969.  Second in Division.  No Playoffs
1972 Dolphins (14-0) - Finished 12-2 in 1973.  Won Super Bowl 24-7. 
1984 49ers (15-1)  - Finished 10-6 in 1985.  Lost Wildcard Game 17-3. 
1985 Bear (15-1) - Finished 14-2 in 1986.  Lost Divisional Game 27-13.
1998 Vikings (15-1) - Finished 10-6 in 1999.  Lost Divisional Game 49-37. 
2004 Steelers (15-1) - Finished 11-5 in 2005.  Won Super Bowl 21-10.

Clearly the bottom didn't fall out.  If anyone thinks the Patriots are doomed to miss the playoffs in 2008 they are probably kidding themselves, especially when you consider the division in which the reside.   Even with The NFL Draft and Free Agency it seems hard to believe the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets can close the gap in one season. 

All of the teams after 1970 on this list at least made the playoffs the following season.  6 of the 7 teams at least posted double digit win totals.  Had the 1963 playoffs had the current format the Packers would have made the playoffs.  Furthermore, they might have competed with the Bears for the title had Paul Hornung not been suspended for the 1963 season for allegedly videotaping his opponents Super Bowl Practice…excuse me, I meant gambling on NFL games.  Sorry Patriots fans I couldn’t resist.
 
However, every team had a worst record.  The only teams that didn’t have a noticeable decline in the regular season were the 1972 Dolphins and 1985 Bears.  I don't think Boston fan will be happy with 11 or 12 wins and a first round loss in 2008.  Clearly The Ring will be the expectation.

When you look at it from this perspective, history shows that the Patriots will probably post double-digit wins and make the playoffs, but not be back in the Super Bowl next season.  Only 2 of these teams were able to reach the Super Bowl the following year.  73 Miami was coming off their 17-0 Super Bowl season when the repeated and the 05 Steelers needed to win 4 road playoff games to win their Super Bowl. 

Patriot fans will argue that they have a number of things going for them that the other teams didn’t have.  Tom Brady will be the first thing.  The Patriot way.  They don’t rebuild they just reload.  With their top ten draft pick and free agency they should be able to improve the defense and things will be even better.  Plus did I mention Tom Brady is still on the team? 

I would point to the 1985 49ers.  Brady is most often compared to Montana and the 49ers had an excellent front office in place during the 80s.  They had Hall of Fame QB Joe Montana in the prime of his career.  He had an All Pro season in 1985.  Roger Craig was entering just his 3rd season.  In 1985 he would become the fist player in NFL History to obtain 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season.  Furthermore, they drafted a certain wide receiver in the 1985 draft named Jerry Rice.   Hard to believe the Patriots will draft a player better than that.  The 49ers still dropped 5 games in the standings and lost their first playoff game 17-3.  There was a 4-year gap between their 1984 Super Bowl season and 1988 Super Bowl season.  They went 0-3 in the playoffs in 1985, 1986, and 1987.   

It just isn't a guarantee.  The Patriots have a lot of talent.  They have a great structure in place.  However 2007 was a very magical season.  They had great chemistry to start the season.  They benefited from the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets being in their division.  They escaped some close games against the Colts, Eagles, Giants, and Ravens that didn't have to go their way.   While they did have some injuries they stayed healthy at their most important positions.  None of that stuff has to happen next season.  The Patriots could be the same team talent wise to start next season and have a worse record due to things beyond their control.  I would be extremely surprised if they did not lose at least 3 or even 4 games next season.  That is before I have seen how they do in the draft and free agency.  I just don’t think they will have all the things that went right for them this season go right two seasons in a row.  

2) I don't want to bore people with how the previous 42 Super Bowl Loser did the
following season.  So let's just look at the last 10 seasons.

1998 Green Bay Packers - 11-5, 2nd NFC Central, Lost 27-30 @ San Fran WC Rd
1999 Atlanta Falcons - 5-11, 3rd Place NFC West, No Playoffs
2000 Tennessee Titans - 13-3, 1st Place AFC South, Lost 10-24 Baltimore Div Rd
2001 NY Giants - 7-9, 4th NFC East, No Playoffs
2002 St Louis Rams - 7-9, 3rd NFC West, No Playoffs
2003 Oakland Raiders - 4-12, 4th AFC West, No Playoffs
2004 Carolina Panthers - 7-9, 3rd Place NFC South, No Playoffs
2005 Philadelphia Eagles - 6-10, 4th Place NFC East, No Playoffs
2006 Seattle Seahawks - 9-7, 1st Place NFC West, Lost 27-24 @ Chicago Div Rd
2007 Chicago Bears - 7-9, 4th Place NFC Central, No Playoffs

As you can see, this looks even less promising. Only 3 previous Super Bowl losers managed to qualify for the playoffs the following season.  Only 2 of the teams managed double digit wins the next season.  Only 2 won their division.  Seattle was the only team to win one playoff game.  2000 Tennessee is the only team that arguably got better, but was upset in their first playoff game by eventual champion Baltimore.

Again, the Patriots have a different dynamic because they have a Hall of Fame QB in the prime of his career.  While it is true that Kerry Collins and Rex Grossman are not on par with Tom Brady some of the other teams had some pretty good signal callers.  The 97 Packers had Brett Favre in his prime.  Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair are clearly not Tom Brady caliber, but were still very solid QBs.  Kurt Warner was coming off two MVP awards in his previous 3 seasons and had 36 TD passes in 2001.  He went on to become injury prone.  Having a great QB does not make you immune to a slip in record.  A great QB can only do so much.

The last Super Bowl loser to return to the Super Bowl the following season was the 1992 Buffalo Bills who would return to the Super Bowl to lose their final and 4th straight Super Bowl in 1993.  The only teams to lose a Super Bowl and win the Super Bowl the following season were the 1971 Cowboys and…you guessed it the 1972 Dolphins. 

3) The last two ways didn’t produce much promise for the Patriots.  Let’s look to the previous dynasties.  How long does the window typically stay open?   Obviously it will vary from team to team.  Here are some of the more notable ones since 1960.   

1960s Packers - Their first year of legitimacy was the 1960 season when they lost the NFL Title to the Philadelphia Eagles.  They won their last Super Bowl in the 1967 season, which was clearly their worst team.  They failed to qualify for the playoffs with the main players in the dynasty after 1967.  - 8 year window

1970s Dolphins - They made their first playoff appearance with this group in 1970.  They went to the first of their 3 Super Bowls in 1971.  The Dolphins peaked in 1972 with their perfect season and repeated in 1973.  While they would make the playoffs in 1974 and lost a heartbreaker to Oakland the core players only made the playoffs twice after that losing each time in the first round.  - 5 year window

1970s Steelers - This team's run basically started in 1972 with the Immaculate Reception.  The Steelers would win Super Bowls in 1974 and 1975.  They would also win Super Bowls in 1978 and 1979.  They would make the playoffs only one more time in the 1982 Strike Shortened Season before this group was done.  - 8 year window

1970s Cowboys - The Cowboys are a little more difficult to figure out.  They had a winning record from 1966 to 1985.  However, I don’t think their window was 20 years.  There were different core players over that span.  The Meredith window was open for only 3 years.  While Danny White was a good quarterback, the Cowboys were not the dominant team of the early 1980s.  The Cowboys best period of success was the Staubach era.  He was the starter on the 1971 Super Bowl team.  They appeared in their last Super Bowl in the Staubach era in 1978.  He retired in 1979 following a playoff loss.  - 9 year window 

1980s 49ers - The Cowboys are similar to the 49ers in that their window stayed open a long time mainly because they had two Hall of Fame QBs on their roster.  The 49ers won their first playoff game in their 1981 Super Bowl Season and won their last playoff game with Joe Montana in the 1990 Season.  The Montana window lasted an entire decade. - 10 year window

1980s Redskins - Joe Gibbs took over in 1981 and by 1982 he had won his first Super Bowl.  He would win his last title in 1991 and make the playoffs for the last time in 1992 before retiring.  It's hard to say when the era begins or ends, because Gibbs wo