This is my second of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC East is probably the most competitive division headed into the 2008 season. The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Dallas Cowboys won 13 games and had the number one seed in the NFC. The Redskins won their last 4 games to make the playoffs as the final wildcard. Finally, the Eagles finished strong and were a very dangerous 8-8 team at the end of the season that did not qualify for the postseason. The only other division that has a claim to being as competitive as the NFC East would be the AFC South, which also had 3 teams qualify for the playoffs in 2007.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)Dallas Cowboys
07 Record: 13-3
Points Scored: 455 (2nd)
Points Allowed: 325 (13th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule:134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Dallas Cowboys had a very impressive start to their 2007 season. In their first 13 games they went 12-1 with their only loss being to the New England Patriots. In their first 12 games they outscored their opponents 395-248, or by an average of 12.25 points per game. After their 37-27 victory against 10-1 Green Bay they looked poised to be the NFC favorite to take on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, things didn’t go according to plan. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games and were outscored 60-77. Then the Cowboys were upset in the playoffs, by the eventual champion NY Giants, 21-17. It was a very disappointing end to a season that looked destined to end with a Super Bowl appearance.
The Cowboys had a load of talent on their roster in 2007. They sent a record 11 players to the Pro Bowl, 7 of which were starters. The number one strength on the Cowboys was the offensive line. 3 of their 7 Pro Bowl starters came from that unit, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode. With Tony Romo given plenty of time to throw the ball and the numerous great weapons they had on offense the Cowboys put up points with great ease. Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns in his first full year starting. Jason Witten had a career year at tight end with 96 catches for 1145 yards and 7 touchdowns. Terrell Owens had 81 catches for 1355 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marion Barber posted 975 rushing yards and 282 receiving yards to go along with his 12 touchdowns. Nick Folk made the Pro Bowl as the NFC Kicker.
What it adds up to is an offense that dominated the NFC. Furthermore, their only key loss on offense was Julius Jones, who signed with Seattle. The Cowboys have taken care of that loss. They added RB Felix Jones in the first round and TE Martellus Bennett to play opposite Witten in the second round.
The only need the Cowboys did not address this season was wide receiver. TO is still an elite NFL receiver, but he is going to be 35 years old. Terry Glenn was hurt until the final game of the season. He is going to be 34. Patrick Crayton had a solid year filling in for Glenn, but still has a ways to go.
It is obvious the Cowboys would be in trouble if TO missed significant time. Teams don’t have backups that can produce at the same level as him. He is an elite wide receiver. Still without him in the lineup they go from scary to below average at the receiver position. He must find a way to stay healthy and play as close to 16 games as possible, something he hasn’t done since 2001.
Weaknesses: The defense was the major issue with the Cowboys in 2007. The Cowboys had a great front 7. They were able to finish 6th in rushing yards allowed. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware was named a starter to the Pro Bowl. He had 14 sacks. That was another area the Cowboys excelled at, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks. They also did well forcing turnovers. The Cowboys finished 6th in the NFL with 19 picks. Ken Hamlin and Terrance Newman were chosen as Pro Bowl reserves. Both started for the Cowboys in their secondary.
What the Cowboys didn’t do is stop the pass very well. They finished 13th in the league in that regard. As a result of the yards they gave up in the passing game and the 19 interceptions that Tony Romo threw the Cowboys gave up 20.3 points per game, which ranked 13th. For all the great plays Tony Romo makes he needs to cut down on the interceptions if the Cowboys are going to be playing February football.
I’m not saying the Cowboys were horrible on defense. They did a lot of things well and their weaknesses are not that bad in the whole scheme of things. However, if the Cowboys want to reach their desired destination as Super Bowl Champions, they need to sure up those areas.
The Cowboys tried to do that this offseason. They made their second first round pick a corner in Michael Jenkins. They also traded for PacMan Jones. If he can stay out of trouble and gain reinstatement from the NFL, he should be able to help this team. The signing of Zach Thomas could be big as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice veteran presence in the middle of the Cowboy’s Defense.
Prediction: It is either the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. The Cowboys have made the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. As an organization, they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Combined with the talent they bring back and the new talent they acquired via 2 first round draft picks, Zach Thomas, and PacMan Jones; expectations will be through the roof. Chemistry will be a big issue in 2008. While the talent of the Cowboys is not questioned, how that talent will interact in the locker room still is. Also Tony Romo needs to cut down on his distractions off the field. There is nothing wrong with him using his celebrity to his advantage, but it shouldn’t be spilling onto the football field. He has to minimize those things as much as possible.
The Cowboys always have a brutal divisional schedule. They get 4 playoff games in the division and the Philadelphia Eagles who beat them at the end of last season in Dallas. Their out of conference schedule appears to be a little tougher than 2007. While the Patriots and Packers were very tough, those were the only two-playoff teams they faced outside the division. This year they get Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is difficult to say if those teams will be as good in 2008 as they were a year ago. Pittsburgh and Cleveland also provide some competitive games. I think the Cowboys will have roughly the same record as they did in 2007, but I don’t expect them to jump out to the 12-1 start they did a year ago. If the Cowboys can cut down on their turnovers and stop the pass better in 2008, there is no reason this team will not finish as the NFC’s number one seed for the second year in a row.
2008 Strength of Schedule:133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the division since 2000. The Eagles have won the division 5 times and made the playoffs 6 times. Prior to 2007 the Eagles had missed the playoffs only once, which was in 2005 during the season of the TO circus.
However, last season the Eagles finished in last place in the NFC East and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Still the Eagles had a number of good things working for them. Most last place teams finish 4-12, not 8-8. The Eagles finished the season strong and had it not been for a 3 game losing streak to end November and begin December the Eagles could have made the playoffs.
On offense, Brian Westbrook quietly had a 2,104 all-purpose yard season. He also scored 12 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback was coming off a serious knee injury in 2006 and the Eagles did not have a dominant receiving core; Westbrook should be applauded for his productivity in 2007. He is the most complete running back in the NFL not name LT.
Donovan McNabb did fairly well coming back from knee surgery. He started 14 games and had 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to go with his 89.9 QB rating. Kevin Curtis and McNabb had good chemistry at times. Curtis was able to finish with 1,110 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.
However, as usual the main strength of the Eagles was their defense. Under Jimmy Johnson the Eagles have been a mainstay in the top rankings of the NFL’s defenses. The Eagles 300 points allowed ranked 9th in the NFL. They also ranked 10th in yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. Trent Cole registered 12.5 sacks.
Weaknesses: The Eagles had 3 main weaknesses in 2007. The first was a lack of quality playmakers. Other than Brian Westbrook, there is no one on the Eagles that keeps defensive coordinators up into all hours of the night game planning.
Some will point to Kevin Curtis and suggest that he has the potential to be a number one receiver as evidenced by his 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is blindly looking at stats and not looking at how they were obtained. In week 3 Curtis had the game of his life. He had 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means in the other 15 games he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and 1 touchdown every 5 games. That just is not acceptable from a number one receiver. Reggie Brown also regressed in 2007. He went from 8 touchdowns in 2006 to 4 in 2007 and his yards dropped from 816 to 780. He did not have the breakout year he was hoping for. The Eagles did add DeShaun Jackson to provide depth in the return game and at the 3rd receiver spot. However, they were not able to obtain that impact wide receiver this offseason.
The second problem was their return team. The fumbles they had in punt return game against Green Bay alone cost them that game. They needed to find a quality return man as Westbrook is to valuable to risk injury at that position. Jackson should be an immediate impact in that regard.
The final weakness was in the secondary. The Eagles ranked 18th in yards allowed and their defense finished tied for last in the NFL in interceptions with just 11. Part of that was due to the rash of injuries they suffered in their secondary at the beginning of the season. That was the motivation for landing the prize of the 2008 free agency period in Samuel. He is a great playmaker that should fit into the Eagles secondary. If Brown, Shepherd, and Dawkins can stay healthy the Eagles have the potential to make a lot more plays in the secondary. It will also give Jimmy Johnson more flexibility to blitz knowing he has the secondary to cover the receivers in one-on-one coverage. That should be a big boost for the Eagles in their team sack numbers.
Prediction: The problem with picking the Eagles to do anything is you never know if Donovan McNabb is going to play a whole season. 2004 is the last season he stayed healthy. Since then he has missed 15 of a possible 48 games with injury. If he is not able to play 13-16 games it is difficult to imagine that the Eagles have the necessary parts in place to survive in a brutal NFC East.
Regardless, you can always count on Andy Reid and Jimmy Johnson to keep the Eagles ship steady and that starts with their strong defense. I don’t see McNabb returning to his 2004 numbers. I don’t believe the Eagles have the offensive weapons in place to do so. However, they don’t need him to do that. If he could just get back to his 2000 and 2001 production when he threw in the low 3,000 yard range and low 20 touchdown range the Eagles should be in great shape, given the emergence of Brian Westbrook as an elite NFL playmaker and a defense that is capable of stopping people. Donovan McNabb completing passes and taking care of the ball is enough for this team to win. That is something he is very good at as his interceptions per attempt is one of the best in NFL history. He started to look more like his old self at the end of the season.
Last year was expected, as he was coming off a serious ACL tear. Now that he is one year removed, he should be able to relax more, play with more confidence, and take the Eagles back to the playoffs. While I don’t believe they have enough offensive weapons to win the division, I would think that 10 wins are well within their reach.
Philadelphia Eagle’s Record: 10-6 – NFC East 2nd Place; NFC #5 Seed
3)New York Giants
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 373 (14th)
Points Allowed: 351 (17th)
Playoff Result: Won Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule: 133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The NY Giants were the most unlikely of Super Bowl Champions. At 10-6 they were the 5th seed in the NFC and were faced with having to win 4 games away from home. They had lost 2 of their final 3 games of the season, but seem to gain momentum with their strong performance against the Patriots in the season finale. Still #5 seeds are not supposed to win Super Bowls.
However, the Giants had gone 7-1 in the regular season on the road, losing their only road game in the opener. The NY Giants rode that road dominance to 11 straight road victories and the Super Bowl trophy.
The strength of the New York Giants is their front 4 on defense. Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Fred Robbins form one of the best defensive front fours in the entire NFL. The NY Giants generated to most pressure on the quarterback in 2007 generating an amazing 53 sacks.
At the beginning of the season the linebackers and secondary could not cover anyone. As the season progressed, the Giants got better in that regard. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster became much better at covering the pass in the second half of the season. While the Giants did lose Gibril Wilson to the Raiders in free agency, they also drafted Kenny Phillips to come into the organization and compete for the starting safety spot.
The linebacker spot is the unit on defense with the most questions. Pierce is still a strong middle linebacker and Mathias Kiwanuka should be ready for the start of the season. He was injured toward the end of the 2007 regular season. This is a unit that did not begin to gel until later in the season, but once everything came together the defense was able to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl title. Mitchell and Torbor were loss to free agency, so they will have to replace them in 2008.
On offense, the strength of the team was their running game. The NY Giants finished 4th in the NFL with a host of running backs. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns all contributed at times in 2007.
Eli Manning had a very average regular season. He had a 73.9 rating and 20 interceptions to go with his 3,336 yards passing and 23 touchdown throws. But was able to put everything together and lead his team to the Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress is a fantastic wide receiver and had 12 touchdown catches. Jeremy Shockey is a good tight end, but was the subject of trade rumors this offseason after the NY Giants offense didn’t miss a beat in the wake of his injury. He is still very talented and will help an offense that features Toomer, Smith, Tyree, and rookie Mario Manningham.
Weaknesses: The NY Giants have a couple of big question marks headed into the season. 1) Which Eli Manning is going to show up in 2008? The one that killed his team with a poor completion percentage and 20 interceptions or the one that started playing after the NY Giants lost to the Patriots in the season finale. If the Giants are going to excel in the regular season, Eli has to take care of the ball for an entire 16 game season. While I don’t expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, I don’t think he will return to his 2007 regular season numbers. I expect something in between the two. I would think that he would get 3,500 yards, 25 touchdown throws, and 12-15 interceptions.
The second question is whether Michael Strahan is going to retire or comeback for another season. Personally, I think he would be unwise to come back in 2008. He will be 37 in November and what better way to go out than win a Super Bowl in your final game. He is nowhere close to catching Bruce Smith for the NFL record in sacks and now that he is a champion he has nothing left to prove. Anything short of repeating would be a disappointing season.
If he doesn’t comeback, how is that going to affect the dynamics of the Giants front 4? Similar to the Packers who are losing Favre, there is a lot of talent in that front 7. However, because none of those players have played without Strahan, it is unclear whether or not the Giants defense will be as dominant without him. The Giants do not have a good record in recent years when he doesn’t play.
Prediction: The Giants are a difficult team to predict for 2008. They basically played 2 seasons in 2007. Week 1-15 where they turned the ball over too much and had problems stopping downfield passing offenses and Week 16 through the Super Bowl where they were difficult to move the ball against and took care of the ball. Regardless, they averaged 21.25 points per game in the postseason, so if anyone thinks this offense is going to evolve into the 2007 Patriots, I think they are going to be in shock. This is a team that is going to run the ball, take their shots downfield, and rely on their defense to win games. I think as their younger receivers develop, we may see them put a few more points on the board.
As I stated earlier, the big key is going to be the decision of Michael Strahan and whether or not he wants to return in 2008. If he does they will be a formidable opponent and will challenge the Cowboys for the division. If he doesn’t they still will be very good, but probably in the running for the final playoff spot. I don’t think he is going to comeback, and therefore I am predicting about the same record in 2008 and the #6 seed for the defending champions.
NY Giants Record:9-7 – NFC East 3rd Place; NFC #6 seed
4)Washington Redskins
07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: In 2007 the Redskins looked like a ship that was sinking fast. After a 5-3 start to the season, they lost 4 games in a row and were sitting at 5-7. Sean Taylor was tragically shot dead in his home. When the Redskins lost to the Bills largely on a timeout mishap that gave the Bills a field goal that was 15 yards closer to win the game the season looked to be lost. However, the Redskins won their last 4 games of the season guided by the veteran backup Todd Collins, they were able to sneak into the playoffs as the # 6 seed before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in what would be Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibb’s last game.
Jim Zorn is inheriting a strong cast of players. Clinton Portis was able to stay relatively healthy in 2007 and rushed for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jason Campbell was able to make good strides, despite not having much help at the receiver position. Todd Collins is a solid backup.
On defense the Redskins finished 4th against the run and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Their front 7 set the tempo for this defense. Andre Carter had 10.5 sacks.
The secondary was fairly average. LaRon Landry looks like the real deal at safety and Rodgers, Springs, and Smoot are solid corners. The Redskins ranked 16th in passing yards allowed. Some games they were brilliant, such as Tampa Bay and Detroit when they allowed less than 100 yards passing. Other games like the road games against Dallas and New England they allowed way to many yards. The Redskins will have to find a way to replace Sean Taylor in their secondary. While I hate to talk Xs and Os when there was such a human tragedy involved, the fact still remains that the Redskins were a much tougher pass defense when he was starting. Replacing a player that was as talented as he was is difficult.
Weaknesses: The Redskins really struggled to move the ball threw the air. Part of that was Jason Campbell entering his first year as the full time starter. Anytime a team puts a young quarterback in the line up there are going to be up’s and downs. However, the fact remains that he had one touchdown pass or less in 10 of his 13 starts. That number has to improve.
A lot of that has to be blamed on the receivers. Portis had 11 touchdown runs and tight end Chris Cooley caught 8 touchdowns. However, no receiver caught a touchdown until James Thrash did in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is unacceptable. The Redskins overhauled the receiver position this offseason by drafting Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas in the 2nd round. I really liked the draft approach by the Redskins to get younger and bigger at wide receiver. Both are bigger receivers and should be better targets in the redzone.
Still, rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first year. While Randy Moss exploded into the league in Year 1, even great receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne took a few years to blossom. If this unit is going to be viable in 2008, Santana Moss must step up to the plate. The Redskins have to score more than 334 points playing in a division with Dallas, New York Giants, and Philly.
Prediction: The Redskins are in the unfortunate position of being in a very tough division. Jason Campbell is a nice quarterback that in a division like the NFC North would be in the running for the best quarterback in the division or in the AFC East would be in the running for best quarterback in the division not named Tom Brady. Here he is clearly the 4th quarterback in this division. Portis may be the 3rd best back in the division. Cooley made the Pro Bowl and isn’t even the best tight end in the division. The Redskins still lack the players at the skill positions to score enough points on a consistent basis to win the tough games they will have to play in the division. I like the moves they made in the draft and graded them very high. Still, those players will take a couple years to develop.
The schedule doesn’t set up as nice for the Redskins in 2008. In addition to the division, they have to travel to Seattle and play Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home. New Orleans is going to be a tough game. When you combine that with the 6 games they play in the division and I see them taking a step back in 2008.
Washington Redskin’s Record:7-9 – NFC East 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
And that is why they play the game. On Saturday New England was on the cusp of creating NFL history. On Monday they are the victim of one of the greatest upsets in NFL history. The New York Giants concluded their improbable Super Bowl run with a 17-14 victory. Here is my recap of the Super Bowl.
MVP of the Super Bowl: The voters got it right. Eli Manning led two 4th quarter touchdown scoring drives to win MVP honors. Honorable mention to the Front 4 of the NY Giants who kept putting pressure on Brady all day and disrupted their offensive flow. It would have been impossible to pick which lineman was more valuable. You could have gone a number of different ways as the NY Giants had many deserving candidates. Eli was as good of a choice as any as his poise in the 4th quarter saved the day. They are truly a team in every sense of the word.
LVP of the Super Bowl: Plenty of blame to go around. Laurence Maroney and his 14 carries for 36 yards was not what the Patriots were hoping for. Randy Moss and his 5 catches for 62 yards were good but not great. While Brady had 266 yards passing, no picks, and an 82.5 rating we have seen him play better. Samuels dropped a big pick. Other than Welker and Thomas no one had a really big day. But the LVP is definitely the offensive line. They didn’t open up holes for Maroney, Brady was sacked 5 times, and pressured countless other times. The result was that Brady was not able to go down the field and the Patriots couldn’t make the big offensive plays they needed for victory. Their 14 points was their worst offensive effort of the season and was caused by the pressure of the Giants.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I have to go with the Little Red Riding Hood’s decision to go for it on 4th and 13. I don’t mind aggressive play calls. However, I think that crossed the aggressive realm and bordered on the stupid. 1) Giving the team the ball at their 31 as opposed to their 38 was not going to change the complexion of that game, 2) It was 4th and 13 not 4th and 1. That is a very low percentage situation, 3) If he was that worried about field position have your kicker or QB pooch kick it to pin the Patriots back. My impression was that this was a Hall of Fame Coach that tried to get too cute and it might have cost him the game. While there were a lot of other big plays that happened in between that call and the final outcome of the game, that was a very bad decision and gave the Giants momentum. He should know better than that.
Hospital Visit: There were no serious injuries in the game.
Coaching Carousel: One consequence of the outcome of the Super Bowl game is that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is going to be pursued to take the Washington Head Coaching job. To the victors go the spoils and he improved his stock in the last 5 games more than any coordinator in the league. In Week 15 he would have generated very little interest. It will be interesting to see whether or not Daniel Snyder’s decision to hire the entire coaching staff before the Head Guy will play any role in Steve Spagnuolo’s decision.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) My congratulations to the Giants fans and condolences to the Patriots fans – First off, congratulations to the NY Giants. They are a very deserving champion. To beat the 13-3 Cowboys, 13-3 Packers, and 16-0 Patriots on the road or at a neutral site is an amazing story. Those 3 games were decided by 10 points and produced 3 of the best playoff games in recent years. I also offer my condolences to the Patriots fans. I remember in 1997 how devastated I was when the Packers lost to the Broncos in the Super Bowl. I felt robbed of a repeat. I was robbed of the chance to see #4 get his second ring. People would have talked about the 1996-97 Packers with the Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers, and Packers teams of the past that repeated. It would have been historically significant for the Packer franchise. Instead the 96 Packers are remembered as a great one year team and the 1997 team was almost great. That was a tough loss to ####. The 1997 Packers team was very good, but not undefeated good. I can’t imagine what it would feel like to be a Patriots player, coach, owner, or fan today. It has to be a very sick and empty feeling.
2) Was this the greatest Upset Ever? - I would say no. The 5 greatest upsets in all of sports in my opinion are 1) 1980 US Hockey team defeating Russia on the way to a Gold Medal, three Final Four games, 2) 1983 NC State defeating Houston in the Championship, 3) 1985 Villanova defeating Georgetown in the Championship, and 4) 1991 Duke defeating UNLV in the semi-finals, and 5) Buster Douglas defeating Mike Tyson. This just doesn’t top those in my book. Remember that Russia had destroyed the USA with the same squads earlier that year. NC State was going up against two future Hall of Famers and Nova was going up against Patrick Ewing and a dominant Georgetown squad. Neither winner had a great pro player. Vegas had beaten Duke by 30 points in the Championship Game just one year prior and Vegas was in the discussion for greatest college basketball team ever. Mike Tyson was the most feared Heavy Weight Fighter in the world when he lost to Douglas. He was capable of knocking anyone out seconds into the opening round. Those 5 underdogs were given no chance prior to that game. While the Patriots matched the dominance aspect of the other upset victims, I don’t believe the NY Giants were considered the type of underdog that was those other opponents. While they were an unlikely Super Bowl participant they had lost 38-35 to the Patriots just 5 weeks ago. That didn’t suggest this would be a blowout. While I thought the Patriots would win I was expecting a close game. Close games can go either way. I was not expecting a blowout like those other 5 events. In terms of Super Bowl upsets I think it ranks in the top five along with 1) 1968 Colts, 2)1969 Vikings, 3) 1990 Buffalo Bills, 4) 1997 Packers, and 5) 2001 Rams being the other victims on Super Bowl Sunday.
3) Was this the Greatest Super Bowl Ever? – This is annoying to me. Anytime a good Championship Game was played people want to race to call it the Best Ever. I think the greatest College Bowl Game ever has occurred in the last 5 consecutive years. Great and Greatest is thrown around too easily. I do not evaluate Super Bowls until at least 10 years after the fact. In my mind Super Bowls need the following things to be great, 1) It has to have been a competitive contest down to the wire, 2) It has to involve Hall of Famers on both sides of the football, and 3) it has to affect or shape the course of NFL history. In my mind the two greatest Super Bowls ever played were Super Bowl XIII between the Steelers and Cowboys and Super Bowl XXXII between the Packers and Broncos. Super Bowl XIII determined whether or not the Cowboys or Steelers would be the team of the 70s. There were Hall of Fame Coaches on Both sides. Hall of Fame QBs. Hall of Fame RBs. Steel Curtain vs. Doomsday Defense. 35-31 score. That game had it all. It is number one in my book. A very close second is Super Bowl XXXII as it determined a lot of things about the 1990s. While the Cowboys were the team of the decade the Broncos went on to claim back to back titles and prevent the Packers from doing so. Elway got his first Super Bowl win against another Hall of Fame QB in Brett Favre. The game snapped a long AFC losing streak in the Super Bowl and was the transition toward AFC supremacy in recent years. The 31-24 score was very competitive and the result was in doubt until the very end. While the XXXIV was an exciting finish, the Rams and Titans lacked a lot of those elements and is therefore lower on my list. Time has allowed that to play out. Unlike that game, this game has a better chance to join those super Super Bowls. It was competitive down to the very end. It altered the course of NFL history by ruining a perfect season for New England. If the Patriots fail to win another Super Bowl or the NY Giants go on to win another Super Bowl it is a pivotal point in NFL history as well. This might be the game that shifts the power back to the NFC. The game has the potential to join some of the other epic performances, but give it some time before jumping to conclusions. If it truly was an epic game history will reflect that even more in 10 years than it does the day after. No need to throw Greatest around the day after.
4) The effect on Legacies –
a) Brady – I think he is the least touched by this. I didn’t think winning this game would make him the best QB of all time. Therefore it would be unfair for me to say that losing it disqualifies him from that distinction. The damage is more in losing with an undefeated team than losing in the Super Bowl. Still he is only one player responsible. He isn’t Tiger Woods playing an individual game. This was about the good plays his team didn’t have time to make than the bad plays that cost him the game. However, this game showed a couple things to me. First, how many people want to still call me an #### for saying that Randy Moss was the MVP of this season? The Patriots were averaging 41.1 points per game in their first 10 games. That dropped to 27.1 points per game in their final 9 games. The difference was that the league caught on to Randy Moss. In the first 10 games he had 66 catches for 1052 yards and 16 touchdowns. The result was the Patriots were more explosive than anytime in the Brady area. In the last 9 games he had 39 catches for 539 yards and 8 touchdowns. Good numbers, but not like the first 10 games. In the playoffs he disappeared and the result was the scores got a lot closer and there was more pressure on the defense. Unlike other teams Brady and the other Patriots were still able to win almost all of their games with their best offensive skill player’s production being limited. However, unlike the first meeting the Patriots were not able to produce the points they needed to beat the Giants. Wes Welker is a good player, but he can’t do the things Randy Moss does. He is not a game changing receiver. I am taking the same approach to Brady’s game as I did with Favre 2 weeks ago. He picked a day to not have his best game on a day when he needed to play his best. Part of that was his line and part of that was on him. While he was able to give the Patriots the lead with a little over 2 minutes left in the game there were too many plays left on the field by an offense that was capable of so much more. Brady is still an all time great to me; he just reminded us that he is human. While he now has a Super Bowl defeat on his resume and lost a perfect season he is only 1 player on that roster and that blame does not fall solely on his shoulders. His legacy is still very secure and he could still recover from this to be the best QB in NFL history if he continues to have great regular and post season success going forward.
b) Bill Belichick – He takes a lot harder hit for this. This may prevent him from being the best NFL Coach of all time. While he is still a Hall of Fame caliber coach he was chasing after immortality. The thing I question is going for it on 4th and 13 from his 31. Don’t go for it on a long pass when your line has shown no ability to protect your quarterback to protect 8 yards of field position. That was a bad decision at a key moment by a guy that should have known better. I can’t see Halas, Landry, Lombardi, Noll, or Shula making that type of decision in that big of a spot. There is a difference in being aggressive and foolish. Lombardi went for a quarterback sneak on 3rd and goal with no timeouts from the 1 yard line in the Ice Bowl. He didn’t go for it on 4th and 13. I don’t hold The Hood solely responsible for the loss or that decision as the biggest factor, but I don’t think he put his team in the best possible situation to win that ball game. What differs from Brady in this situation is that he didn’t have 4 defensive linemen rushing at him when he made that decision. He made a bad decision and had an average game plan in his biggest moment. The game plan did not work and he is as responsible as anyone for that. Fair or not, this loss will be used against him when discussing the greatest NFL Head Coaches of all time.
c) The Patriots Dynasty – This takes the biggest hit of all. Every dynasty lost playoff games. The 60s Packers lost the NFL Championship 17-13 to the Eagles. The 1976 Steelers lost the AFC Title Game to the Raiders. The 1986 49ers lost to the NY Giants 49-3. The 1994 Cowboys lost to the San Fran 49ers 38-28. That isn’t the problem. The problem is that all of those dynasties won with their best team. The 1962 Packers closed their season with a title. The 1978 Steelers won it all. Same with the 1984 49ers, 1989 49ers, and 1993 Cowboys. While the previous Patriots teams were great, this one was special. The other 3 Patriot Champions won by a single field goal. This one set an NFL record for points. They had a great scoring differential. It had the looks of an all time dominant team capable of delivering a 55-10 blow like the 89 49ers. It didn’t deliver against a team that was not an All Time Great Team. Instead of being in the top 5 for Greatest Teams ever the 2007 Patriots are contending for the Greatest Single Season Team not to win a title. Furthermore, the Patriots weren’t exactly clicking on all cylinders in the playoffs like a 1985 Bears or 1989 49ers. Had they won this game they would have been in the discussion with those other dynasties but not had the signature wins the 85 Bears or 89 49ers had. By losing the Super Bowl they have nothing. That doesn’t mean their other 3 Super Bowls are meaningless. That dynasty is still secure. They are still above the 70s Cowboys, 80s Bears, 90s Packers and Broncos, or some of the other teams that had good runs but didn’t get the hardware these Patriots received. However in going up against the 60s Packers, 70s Steelers, 80s 49ers, or 90s Cowboys there is no margin for error. This loss prevents them from reaching that lofty status.
d) Eli Manning – I’m not sure what this does for his legacy, because legacies are hard to establish in year 4. On the one hand he is no longer a first round bust like he was 5 weeks ago. He was an intrigual part of a Super Bowl team that drafted him. On the other hand, the defensive line is going to be remembered for this dominating run as much as he is. While he put up solid number throughout the postseason they were not out of this world. The fact is that all Super Bowl QBs have help in winning it all. It is a team game. Manning took the most difficult step, which is to win a title. Now he needs to put together a solid regular season. As he starts to build those his legacy will only continue to grow. If he reverts back to 20 TDs and 17 interceptions it will not diminish what he achieved this postseason but will continue to hinder him from joining the elite QBs.
5) Mercury Morris needs to get a Life – Most of the 1972 Dolphins are pretty classy individuals. They should be proud that their achievement is still in tact. However, I am sick of listening to some of the members of the 1972 Dolphins, most of all Mr. Morris. First he was not a Hall of Famer or even the best player on his team. He is a 3 time Pro Bowler and 1 time All Pro. He had only one season of 1,000 yards rushing and two seasons with double digit touchdowns. He had 21 carries for 68 yards and 0 touchdowns combined in the Dolphins two Super Bowl wins. While he was a key contributor for the 72 Dolphins it would be the equivalent of John Taylor or Brent Jones talking trash about how great the 1989 49ers were in the playoffs. Know your role. Second, even though the Dolphins had the most successful regular season I don’t think many people consider them the single most dominant team for one year. They played a schedule that featured opponents with an under .400 winning percentage. They beat 2 teams with winning records in the regular season. They did not dominate the playoffs. Most people consider the 1962 Packers, 1978 Steelers, 1985 Bears, and 1989 49ers to be more dominant teams. While the 1972 Dolphins will always have a place in NFL history for their extraordinary single season achievement no matter what anyone does going forward; get a life. Let other people talk about your greatness don’t do it for us. If you are going to talk about it send out the Hall of Fame Head Coach or Larry Czonka, not Mercury Morris. Stop making up songs and acting like an unemployed stand up comic in a last ditch effort to become relevant after the fact. While he had a nice NFL career, Mercury Morris is becoming more famous for behaving like a spoiled child the last month than anything he did on the football field. It is unfortunate that he has turned into a bitter ex football player dying to stay in the spotlight.
A Look Ahead:
That’s all for this season. What a terrific season it was. Again, congratulations to the New York Football Giants on their Super Bowl title. I have enjoyed reading your comments through out the year. I will probably not be posting as regularly the next couple months, but keep checking back for free agency, draft, and other relevant NFL news. In a few months the predictions for 2008 will be in full gear and we can engage in the debate all over again.
The big question entering Super Bowl Sunday is whether the NY Giants have a chance to defeat the undefeated Patriots. People are looking at a lot of different areas. They are looking at the difference in wins between the two clubs. The difference between the AFC and NFC. They are looking at the turnover differential. The difference between the quarterbacks. Most people are looking at parallels between the other undefeated teams, mainly the 1972 Dolphins or the previous one-loss teams to reach the Super Bowl in the 1984 49ers or 1985 Bears all of which won. The overwhelming opinion is that while the Giants are a nice story no one is going to pick them to stay in this ball game. If you are picking the Giants to do the unthinkable it is probably because you don’t want to see the 1972 Dolphins have company, Chuck Noll be equaled by The Hood, or you just don’t like the Patriots. It probably isn’t because of any quality football analysis.
I decided to go in a different direction. In the Super Bowl era we have had 5 monumental upsets. Teams that where favored to win by 7 points or more but failed to deliver. The games are as follows:
Super Bowl III - NY Jets (12-3) vs. Baltimore Colts (15-1) - (The Colts were favored by 20 points, but the Jets won 16-7)
Super Bowl IV – Kansas City (13-3) vs. Minnesota (14-2) - (The Vikings were favored by 12 points, but the Chiefs won 23-7)
Super Bowl XXV - New York Giants (15-3) vs. Buffalo (15-3) - (The Bills were favored by 8 points, but the Giants won 20-19)
Super Bowl XXXII – Denver (15-4) vs. Green Bay (15-3) - (The Packers were favored by 12 points, but the Broncos won 31-24)
Super Bowl XXXVI – New England (13-5) vs. St Louis (16-2) - (The Rams were favored by 14 points, but the Patriots won 20-17)
I tried to take away five factors that were common to these five games:
1) For the most part, these were competitive games – The only game that was won by more than double digits was Super Bowl IV. One thing you have to remember is that the NFL was viewed as the superior league to the AFC back in the 1960s. When the 1966 Packers beat the Chiefs 35-10 and the 1967 Packers beat the Raiders 33-14 there was little doubt in anyone’s mind that the NFL was the vastly superior conference. Still the Colts finished 2nd in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense. They won their games by an average of 18.4 points per game. The 1969 Vikings were 1st in both scoring offense and scoring defense and won their games by an average of 17.6 points per game. Even if the sporting public had not been so biased toward the NFL, it is hard to imagine that these teams would not have been favored. It probably wouldn’t have been by as much. However when you look at the three recent upsets, the Bills had a chance to win the game had it not been for Scott Norwood, the Packers were around the Denver 30 yard line on a game tying drive when they turned it over on downs with about 0:30 left, and the Patriots broke a tie with a game winning field goal as time expired. I think history shows us that if the 2007 Patriots are to lose to the Giants it will probably be by a very slim margin.
2) Hall of Fame Coaches – Weeb Ewbank had won the 1958 and 1959 NFL Championship Games with the Baltimore Colts in addition to his Super Bowl III ring. He is in the Hall of Fame. Hank Stram was 1-1 in the Super Bowl and is in the Hall of Fame. There is no doubt that if Bill Bilechick walked away from the game today he is a First Ballot Hall of Fame Head Coach. He has 3 Super Bowl rings. Bill Parcells is also Canton bound one day. He has two Super Bowl rings and 170 career victories. I have to believe Mike Shanahan is Canton bound. He has 146-95 record as head coach, has won 2 Super Bowls, and is already in the top 20 for most victories all time by a Head Coach. He is still active and his 1997-1998 playoff run is legendary and should catapult him into the Hall of Fame when combined with his regular season statistics. If you combined these coaches winning percentages it is an amazing 706-412-18, or a career .629 winning percentage. They combined to win 9 Super Bowl rings plus Ewbank’s 1958 and 1959 titles. If you are going to pull an upset of these proportions, you have to have an incredible head coach. One that can come up with a great game plan, stick with it, and have his team execute it to perfection.
3) Hall of Fame QBs – While it is nice to have someone great roaming the sidelines it also helps to have a great field general to lead the attack. 4 of the 5 QBs on this list are either present or future Hall of Fame QBs. (Brady, Elway, Dawson, Namath). That doesn’t mean they were already locks when they won the game, but they had either had great careers or went on to have great careers. The only one on here that was not a Hall of Famer was Jeff Hostetler of the 1990 Giants. Phil Simms who is a borderline Hall of Famer was injured for the big game. He was the starter until he suffered a broken bone in his foot in a regular season 17-13 loss to the Buffalo Bill. The Giants didn’t depend on their quarterback much. Simms had 2,284 yards passing and 15 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. The Giants were number one in scoring defense, number two in yards allowed, and number two in scoring differential. All time great Lawrence Taylor and a stellar defensive unit led the Giants. Otis Anderson was the perfect running back for that game. His powerful style allowed the Giants to control the ball for 40:33 minutes in that game, including 22 minutes in the second half. That is still a Super Bowl record. While losing Simms hurt, he was not the essential part of the team and allowed the Giants to survive that loss.
4) Excellent balance – Except for the 1990 Giants everyone had great balance. The Giants were exceptional at running the ball with no turnovers while playing solid defense. They were very limited in the passing game. The 1968 Jets had a Hall of Fame QB throwing to two 1000-yard receivers. Matt Snell and Emerson Booozer provided an excellent one two punch on offense running the ball. They featured a defense that was first in the AFL in yards allowed and had 28 interceptions that season. The 1969 Chiefs were 1st in both points and yards allowed in the AFL. They were 2nd in points scored and 3rd in yards gained. They won their games by 13.0 points per game, which was also the best in the AFL. The 1997 Broncos were very under appreciated entering that game. They were 1st in scoring offense and 6th in scoring defense. The Broncos were 1st in point differential at 11.6 points per game. Terrell Davis had 1750 yards rushing and 15 rushing touchdowns, while Elway passed for 3635 yards and 27 touchdowns against 11 picks. The 2001 Patriots were not given a chance, because no one knew how first year starter Tom Brady would fare against the Greatest Show on Turf. They didn’t even know if his ankle would allow him to play. People failed to take into account that while the Rams had good balance, so did the Patriots. The Patriots were 6th in points scored, 6th in points allowed, and featured 1,000-yard rusher Antowain Smith, and 1,000 yard receiver Troy Brown. Smith had 12 rushing touchdowns that season and Brown chipped in with 5 touchdown receptions. If you are going to pull out an upset like that you have to adjust to the various different situations that game will present. New England was able to play keep away from the Rams offense early in the game to keep the score close, but was able to switch into the 2 minute offense and drive the team down for the game winning field goal. That is big in games like these.
5) Winning the Turnover battle and Running the Football – When you are an underdog it is essential that you win the turnover battle and control the clock. While Namath made the guarantee and won the MVP it was the Jets secondary that won the game. Few people realize that Joe Namath had only 206 yards and 0 touchdown passes in that monumental upset. What he didn’t have is the 4 Colts interceptions. The Jets only turnover was a fumble and the Jets won that turnover battle 5-1. The Chiefs were able to pick off 3 passes and recover 2 fumbles in their upset of the Minnesota Vikings. They also won the turnover battle 5-1. The 1990 Giants and 1990 Bills did not have a single turnover in that game. Not turning the ball over and having only 5 penalties for 31 yards allowed the Giants to control the clock. The 1997 Broncos won their turnover battle 3-2 thanks to two Packer fumbles and one Favre interception. The 2001 Patriots used 2 Warner picks and another Rams fumble to win the turnover battle 3-0. In the rushing department these 5 teams were able to excel. The winning team averaged rushing the ball 155.4 yards in the Super Bowl to the losing team’s 112.2. Only the 1968 Colts won the rushing battle but lost the game. They had 143 yards rushing to the Jets 142. 5 turnovers will do that to you. The Giants and Bills were separated by only 6 rushing yards, but that was in large part to the 15 carries by Thurman Thomas for 135 yards. While the Bills were close on yardage it didn’t translate into controlling the clock. The Giants had 14 more running plays than the Bills.
So how does that translate for the Patriot’s opponent? Terrell Davis isn’t running the ball in this game. Bill Parcell’s isn’t the coach. Lawrence Taylor isn’t pressuring the quarterback. Looking at statistics and past performances is all fine and good, but in the end it comes down to if you can cover Randy Moss or put pressure on Tom Brady, right?
I agree with that to a certain extent. Players make plays. I think some stats are useless. For instance, that the Giants were 1-4 against the Packers in the NFL / NFC Championship Game. Who cares? 1936, 1939, 1944, 1961, and 1962 don’t have a lot to do with 2007. It has nothing to do with how Eli Manning was going to play last Sunday. Those are what we call interesting but not relevant statistics. It didn’t translate as an advantage for the Packers who lost 23-20 in OT.
However, there are other statistics that I do believe are useful in predicting future happenings. I think when only 8 teams out of 42 have won the Super Bowl without a top 10 scoring offense and scoring defense there is a reason for that. Only one of 42 teams won the Super Bowl with a record worse than 11-5. There is a reason for that. I think there is a recipe success that works year in and year out and only a few teams playing in that particular season have it. In other words if a particular team has A, B, C, D, and E that should equal Super Bowl success.
Football for the most part has been played the same in the Super Bowl era. Four quarters totaling 15 minute each, same shaped football, 100-yard field between the endzones, etc. There have been changes between the live ball era vs. the dead ball era, the pass interference call, etc. No matter what rules were in effect for that year the rules have been the same for every team in that given year. Obviously unless you have a crystal ball or some good tea leaves you won’t be able to predict the future with 100% accuracy. However, I think you can take a look at win loss records, scoring offenses and defenses, trends, and personnel traits to come up with recipes and probabilities of things happening.
Therefore, given how the previous monumental upsets materialize do the Giants have any shot of beating the New England Patriots? Seeing we won’t know if it is a competitive game until Sunday, let’s look at the other 4 factors I discussed above.
1) Hall of Fame Coach – The NY Giants have a seasoned coach, but probably not a Hall of Fame Coach. He has been employed as a head coach every year since 1995 other than the 2003 season. He has a 103-89 record or .536 winning percentage. Prior to this season he was just 4-6 in the playoffs and two of those wins game in the 1996 season. He has coached in three conference title games going 1-2. This is his first Super Bowl. While he is a good coach he definitely is not on par with the other coaches that pulled off these previous monumental upsets. If he does become a Hall of Fame Coach it is because of what he has done from Week 17 going forward, not what he has done in the past. He will need to win more than this game to make Canton.
2) Hall of Fame QB – It is too early to tell whether Eli Manning will eventually be a Hall of Fame QB. He is only in his 4th year. Until Week 17 the answer would have been a resounding no possibility ever. However he has shown a new maturity that suggests he may very well be capable of bigger and better things. Only time will tell.
3) Balance – The NY Giants are pretty average in the season rankings. Their 373 points scored was 14th in the NFL. Their 352 points allowed was 17th. Their 1.4 point per game differential was 13th. They have a very strong ground game that ranked 4th in rushing yards, but a passing attack that ranked 21st. They led the league in sacks. This is a team that relies very heavily on the run game and on their defense to put pressure on the QB. The really aren’t built to come from behind or make explosive plays in the offense other than Burress.
5) Turnovers / Ball Control – The Giants have run the ball well all season. However, the Giants had a –10 turnover differential which was 26th in the NFL. Until Week 17 all they did was turn the ball over. Eli Manning has yet to throw an interception in the playoffs and the Giants have been among the best in the playoffs at valuing the ball. Ball control has been huge as they controlled the clock for over 40 minutes in the NFC title game.
When you look at the formula, the Giants really don’t fit the bill. No Hall of Fame Coach or QB. Not good enough balance and too many turnovers. History shows that they have little to no shot of even staying in this game. You can look at past games, past statistics, and how these teams match up. Combine that with how good the Patriots have looked and on paper the Giants have no shot to stay within two touchdowns of the Patriots. However, I believe the Giants can win this game. Even though statistics are fun to look at there are instances where a team defies the statistics.
Let’s go to the NBA. Everyone knows the formula for winning a title. Hall of Fame mega star with a strong second player and other parts that compliment them. Since Magic Johnson came into the league in 1980 that has been the formula. Johnson and Kareem. Bird, McHale, and Parish. Thomas and Dumars. Jordan and Pippen. The Dream and Clyde. Shaq and Kobe. David and Tim. But there is that one team that defied the formula. That was the 2003-2004 Pistons. Despite not having one clear cut first ballot Hall of Famer and only winning 54 games on the regular season; the Pistons were able to win the NBA title beating the LA Lakers with 3 future first ballot Hall of Famers and Gary Payton who is also a borderline Hall of Fame player. They did so convincingly winning the series 4 games to 1.
I think people have to consider how unusual the 2007 NY Giants have been. They had a –10 turnover differential in the regular season good for 26th in the NFL. They had a 1-5 record against playoff teams with their only win coming in Week 3 against Washington on a goaline stand. They were 3-5 at home, but 7-1 on the road. However they only beat one playoff team on the road that being the Redskins. They failed to crack the top 12 in either scoring offense or scoring defense. This is a team that should have lost in the first round.
Once they got out of the first round they had to play two 13-3 teams. The Cold Hard Football Facts did an excellent article on 10-6 teams in the playoffs. It goes as follows:
“Fourteen teams with records of 10-6 or worse have advanced to the championship round since the NFL expanded to 16-game seasons in 1978 and made the 10-6 record possible. Those 14 teams went 2-12 in the championship round – and one of those wins came when the 9-7 Rams beat the 10-6 Buccaneers in the 1979 NFC title game.”
“Since 1978, there have been 51 playoff games between two teams separated by three or more games in the regular-season standings – i.e., the 16-0 Patriots vs. 11-5 Chargers and the 13-3 Packers vs. the 10-6 Giants. The team with the worse record has won just 8 times in 51 tries, a dramatically terrible .157 winning percentage. In addition, the teams with the better record averaged just a hair under 30 points per game (29.5) while the losers managed only 13.9 – a difference of more than two touchdowns. That's a remarkable rate of dominance in any collection of NFL games, let alone between playoff teams.”
NFL history has shown that teams like the Giants had no chance to beat the 13-3 Cowboys. They bucked a.157 trend to win that game. Then they bucked the same trend against the 13-3 Packers in the championship game in addition to .090 trend of 10-6 teams in the Conference title game going against teams with better records. What they have done is truly amazing and unprecedented.
Therefore I think people are very silly in thinking the Patriots will win on Super Bowl Sunday in a blowout. While the numbers would suggest this is the most lopsided match up in Super Bowl history the Giants have been defying the statistics for the better part of a month now. They are not here by accident and I think it would be foolish to dismiss them because of their regular season.
The fact of the matter is that Eli Manning was holding this team back for most of the season. He threw way too many interceptions. His completion percentage was too low. His passing yardage was too low. Simply put the Giants passing offense was making so many negative plays that the running game and the defense were not able to survive the lack of production and big mistakes.
For whatever reason something happened in between Week 16 to Week 17. The game suddenly slowed down for Eli. Since that game He has 8 touchdowns to 1 pick. He is passing for good yardage. He has 3 games where he has over 100.00 rating. He has evolved into a positive difference maker. It is almost as if an alien space ship came to Earth and kidnapped Eli replacing him with a Super Clone. He has looked like a completely different QB the last month.
If he plays the same way on Super Bowl Sunday the Giants have an excellent chance to win the game. Like the 2003-2004 Pistons this team is not being given any type of shot. NY Giants fans will claim that no one respects them. It isn’t that no one respects them. It’s that anyone that studies statistics can’t figure out how this team is even here.
My prediction for the game is Patriots 34 NY Giants 27. The Patriots were my pick to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season and they have done nothing to change my mind. I can’t pick both teams to win and I try not to be a bandwagon guy. I haven’t picked the Giants to win a big game all season. Why would I start now?
The main thing that scares me on the Patriots end is the condition of Brady’s ankle. While I know Brady will play it remains to be seen if he will have the mobility he needs to step up in the pocket and avoid the outside rush. If he is slowed even a split second that is an advantage for the Giants. However even if Brady were 100% the NY Giants are making me nervous about the pick given their solid play the last month.
Even though all the statistics say they shouldn’t even be here I have watched them play for the better part of a month and they look like an incredible football team. I believe this game will be a physical battle and that the Patriots will get everything they want and more. I would be surprised if the Patriots lost, but not shocked. Start giving this Giants team their due. They have been playing great football for a month and it is time they start getting the respect they deserve. While they aren’t a great team on paper games aren’t played on paper. In the words of Kenny Mayne they are played inside TV sets.
1) W/L Record: 13-3 2) Points Scored: 28.4 / game (2nd) 3) Points Allowed: 20.3 / game (13th) 4) Yards Gained: 365.7 / game (3rd) 5) Yards Allowed: 307.6 / game (9th)
Strengths: The Cowboys have the most Pro Bowl Players in the NFL. The strength of this team is their offensive production. They rank 2nd in points scored and 3rd in yards gained. Marion Barber and Julius Jones dominate the running game. Romo, TO, and Witten dominate the passing game. The Cowboys possess great offensive balance. The defense isn’t too bad either. They are ranked near the top in stopping the run and are a respectable 12th in points allowed.
Weaknesses: The Cowboys have a few weaknesses. They are around the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the pass. They are very similar to the Chargers in that they rely on the 3rd most sacks and 6th most picks to stop the pass. On offense they sometimes abandon the running game and the result is usually a lot of Tony Romo interceptions. It is imperative this team maintain offensive balance. They have some injury issues, mainly to TO. It is uncertain if or at what speed he will be available to play at in the postseason. Finally, the team hasn’t been playing its best ball down the stretch. In December they are 2-2 and have been outscored 60-77 in that span. This team peaked in their victory over Green Bay and has not played at a high level since. Furthermore, Romo will be starting his 2nd playoff start this season. How he responds with these expectations will be instrumental in Dallas making a successful playoff run.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have been the #1 seed in the NFC from Week 1 until Week 17. The Cowboys are great at home. They are 3-0 against the Giants and Packers this season. They played the Patriots in the regular season and will be able to make adjustments from that loss. This team has a fantastic offense. It has a great young QB in Tony Romo. It has all the pieces necessary to compete for a title. While they didn’t play well in the last 4 games, they didn’t have a lot to play for. Once they are healthy and the games matter they should be able to turn the switch back on.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: The Cowboys have allowed over 300 points which is not a good recipe for winning the Super Bowl. Since 1990 the only team to win a Super Bowl and give up more than 300 points was the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. Plus the Cowboys aren’t getting Bob Sanders back for the playoffs. The 2006 Colts led the league in touchdown passes, Manning had only 9 interceptions, and they had a plus 7 giveaway to takeaway ratio. The Cowboys have more TD passes than the Colts last season, Romo has 19 interceptions, and the Cowboys are about even in giveaways to takeaways. While the Cowboys can score in bunches they can give points up in bunches too. That could be disaster against the Packers or the Seahawks two teams whose strength is passing the football and forcing turnovers.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: After making the playoffs in 2006 and having the best record in the NFC all season it is the Super Bowl or bust.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 45% -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------
Team: Green Bay Packers
Seed: NFC #2 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 13-3 2) Points Scored: 27.2 / game (4th) 3) Points Allowed: 18.2 / game (6th) 4) Yards Gained: 370.7 / game (2nd) 5) Yards Allowed: 313.3 / game (11th)
Strengths: The Packers strength is their team balance. On offense Favre has had another MVP caliber season. Jennings and Driver are excellent targets. The Packer receivers are the best in the league after the catch. Donald Lee is giving good production at the tight end. Ryan Grant is the leading rusher in the NFL since he took over as the starter in Week 9. He has 8 rushing touchdowns. On defense, the Packers stop the run well as well as the pass. Kampan leads the league in sacks the last 2 years. Harris and Woodson form arguably the best CB duo in the NFL. Crosby has been strong on special teams. The Packers have so many ways they can beat opponents.
Weaknesses: The Packers don’t stop the tight end well. While their linebackers are solid run tacklers they are not great in pass coverage. Furthermore, the safeties are very young an inexperienced. The running game has a lot to be desired. While their 26th ranked rushing attack isn’t very accurate at this point in the season because Grant did not play the whole season, the Packers set up the run by doing well with the pass. The running game is not strong enough to carry this team if the pass is not working. Check out the Bears game in Chicago for confirmation of that. While Brett Favre has reduced the interceptions this season he still had 15 interceptions. Pressure will give the defense opportunity to make plays. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: This team has a lot good karma. A Super Bowl win would be a fitting end to a Hall of Fame career for Brett Favre. However they had that going in 2003 when Favre’s father passed away at the end of the season. That good karma resulted in only one playoff win. The difference between 03 & 04 and this year is the defense. The Packers have a terrific young defense. Outside of the Patriots and Colts, the Packers probably possess the best balance of offensive and defensive ability. They do a lot of things well and that defense gives Brett Favre and the offense a chance to win every Sunday. This young team has played oblivious to the fact that they aren’t supposed to be having this type of season. That attitude could serve them well in the playoffs.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: 0-9 in Dallas: Brett Favre has never won there. That would be their likely destination for the NFC Championship Game. Also the Packers have not been in the playoffs since 2004. While teams like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 2001 Patriots were not frequent visitors to the postseason in the 2 years before they won their Super Bowl titles NFL history proves that teams usually take a lump or two in the playoffs before securing the ultimate prize. What would be considered a successful Postseason: Seeing this team wasn’t expected to do anything at the beginning of the year, a birth in the NFC Championship Game and competitive showing against Dallas would be terrific season under normal circumstances. However with a 38-year-old QB this team can’t afford to think about next year. This team is running out of chances to send Brett out a winner. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 35% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
2007 NFL Playoff Preview
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Seed: NFC #3 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 24.6 / game (9th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 18.2 / game (6th tie) 4) Yards Gained: 348.9 / game (9th) 5) Yards Allowed: 321.8 / game (15th)
Strengths: Mike Holmgren probably did his best coaching job this season. This was a team that had relied on Shaun Alexander and the running game in past seasons. When that didn’t work this season he switched to a pass dominated offense. The result was another NFC West Title. This team forces a lot of turnovers and gets a lot of pressure on the QB. They play very well at home going 7-1 there this season. Weaknesses: Their schedule. The schedule didn’t prepare them very well for the playoffs. They were 1-1 against other playoff teams. They beat Tampa Bay 20-6 at home in the opener and lost at Pittsburgh 21-0 in Week 5. That means they played 11 straight games against non-playoff competition. While the Hawks went 6-2 in the second half of the season it was against teams that finished with a 45-75 record or .375 winning percentage (excludes the result of the Seattle game from their opponents record). How does that translate to a team like Washington whose last 4 opponents had a 38-22 record or .633 winning percentage (excludes the result of the Washington game from their opponents record)? Washington went 4-0 in their last 4 games, including wins against 2 playoff teams and Minnesota, which finished #7 in the NFC. That could be a big factor when Washington visits Seattle to start the playoffs. What we do know is that Seattle struggles to run the ball. They rank 20th in that area. How this team fares in the passing game will determine their fate. If they struggle to pass the ball they won’t be able to score enough points to go far in the playoffs. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have a Head Coach who is 1-2 in the Super Bowl including an appearance with the Seahawks just 2 years ago. They have a veteran battle tested group that should be able to turn it on for the playoffs. They rank in the top 10 in 3 of the 4 statistical areas and in the top half of the league in all 4. That balance is imperative come playoff time.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They only won their games by 6.4 points per game and finished with only 10 wins playing in one of the weakest divisions and schedules in the NFL. Their rankings would be a lot lower in the NFC East or AFC South. When they have to play real competition their weakness of running the ball will show. While they may be able to beat a 9-7 Washington Green Bay and Dallas can put a lot of pressure on a passing game that isn’t being helped by the Alexander and the running game.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: This is a veteran team that is probably in the midst of their last playoff run. They made the Super Bowl two years ago. If they don’t win it all they will not have achieved the goals they set for themselves at the beginning of the season.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 10% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seed: NFC #4 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 9-7 2) Points Scored: 20.9 / game (18th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 16.9 / game (3rd) 4) Yards Gained: 326.8 / game (18th) 5) Yards Allowed: 278.4 / game (2nd)
Strengths: See the Tennessee Titans. They are 3rd in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. While they are only 17th in rush yards allowed, they are 1st in pass yards allowed. Considering how much Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle like to pass the ball that is a good thing. They have a veteran Quarterback that gives them just enough offensive production to get by. While Garcia will not throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns like he did in San Fran he doesn’t turn the ball over and converts 3rd downs. While the team only had a 9-7 record, they haven’t played any of their starters in almost 3 weeks. Weaknesses: They just don’t score enough points. Their 20.9 points per game scored is in the bottom half of the NFL. They scored over 30 points only 3 times. Green Bay did that 9 times this season and Dallas did it 8 times. Tampa is also in the bottom half of the league in offense yardage. Where that creates a problem is that Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle all have defenses that rank in the top 10 in either yards allowed or points allowed. Basically the gap between Tampa’s offense and the top seed’s offenses is a lot greater than the gap between the defenses. That is not a good sign for Tampa. Tampa had a better schedule than Seattle, but still were only 2-3 against playoff teams. Both wins were against the #6 seeds. They just don’t have that signature win on their schedule. While Tampa Bay may very well hold Green Bay or Dallas to 20-24 points the question will be whether they can score more than those 20-24 points to advance in the playoffs.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: This team will need to turn the playoffs into a defensive slugfest. They do have the defense to do that. Brooks, Barber, and company do have Super Bowl experience. If the defense can force turnovers and get stops, Jeff Garcia is the type of veteran quarterback that can manage the clock and score enough points to beat teams with better offensive personnel. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They have a horrible draw. Their home game is against the Giants who are ranked #4 in rushing yards. If Eli Manning can avoid the turnovers beating the Giants will be difficult to beat. Then they will have to go to Green Bay, which is a bad weather site, or Dallas, which also has a good running game and can put a lot of pressure on Garcia. After that they would play either Indy or New England. They already played Indy this season and were blown out. I could see them pulling off a shocker and upsetting one of the good teams. To beat the NY Giants, Green Bay, Dallas and then New England or Indy would seem to be too tall of a task. What would be considered a successful Postseason: This team had the 5th pick in the draft last season. They are the only divisional winner in the NFL to not have won 10 games. I think a first round win and competitive showing in the 2nd round would be a successful season, except that this team has a lot of veteran players. Whether this team will be able to build off this experience is something that remains to be seen. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 3% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
Team: NY Giants
Seed: NFC #5 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 23.3 / game (14th) 3) Points Allowed: 21.9 / game (17th) 4) Yards Gained: 331.4 / game (16th) 5) Yards Allowed: 305.9 / game (7th)
Strengths: They led the NFL in sacks. They were 7th in yards allowed. They had the 4th best running attack in the NFL. This is a smash mouth football team that likes to control the clock and get after the quarterback. The testament to this team is their ability to play through injuries. Jacobs, Ward, Droughns, and Bradshaw have all had stretches where they were a featured back in the offense. Burress didn’t practice most of the season and Shockey suffered a season ending injury against Washington. Yet the team has managed to run the ball well and still score points. They played in a division with two other playoff teams. They also played New England and Green Bay. Their schedule was loaded with tough games and could serve them well in the postseason.
Weaknesses: While it is all fine and good to play tough games, eventually you have to win one. The Giants were 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs. Their only win was a Week 3 win against Washington where they stuffed the Skins at the one-yard line in a 7-point game. The bulk of this teams wins were in a 6 game stretch where they played Atlanta, Miami, NY Jets, Philadelphia, and San Fran. Again, this is a team that lives on putting pressure on QBs and forcing mistakes. While that is easy against Joey Harrington and Cleo Lemmon, it is a lot harder against Brady, Favre, and Romo. Their main problem is that they drop the ball a lot, get inopportune penalties, and turn the ball over. Eli is among the lowest ranked QBs in QB ranking, interceptions, and completion percentage. He is 0-3 in the playoffs. He needs to prove that he can win a big game. While he might have played his best game of the year on Saturday his 4th quarter interception and clock management was critical in the Giants demise.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: When this team is on they are as dangerous as any in the league. That was evident in Saturday’s game. If they can play the Patriots to 3 points they can win the Super Bowl. If they bring that type of energy and focus to every playoff game they have the defense and offensive personnel to win tough games. Furthermore they are 7-1 on the road this season. It probably serves them well that unless Washington advances to the Championship Game that they will be playing all their games away from the Big Apple. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Turnovers, Penalties, and Quarterback Play are three of the biggest factors in why teams advance in the playoffs. That is this teams Achilles Heal. While they were 10-6 they had some very easy games and are right in the middle of the league in terms of points scored and points allowed. They just don’t score enough or stop people enough to be considered a serious threat in the playoffs.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: Eli and Tom are 0-3 together in the playoffs. While Tampa Bay is a good team, they are by no means great. This team needs to win a playoff game and play well against Green Bay or Dallas. Considering they were Team Turmoil at the end of last season and lost their best offensive player in Tiki Barber, that would be a nice progression for this team. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 2% -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
Team: Washington Redskins
Seed: NFC #6 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 9-7 2) Points Scored: 20.9 / game (18th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 19.4 / game (11th) 4) Yards Gained: 333.4 / game (15th) 5) Yards Allowed: 305.2 / game (8th)
Strengths: This is a team that is hard to evaluate according to the stats. Since Collins has entered the starting lineup he has the 2nd best QB rating behind Tom Brady. The Redskins have a very strong front 7 that does an effective job of stopping the run and pressuring the QB. While the Redskins only rank 12th in rushing yards, Clinton Portis is playing his best ball at the end of the season. Santana Moss is finally healthy. This is a team that started 5-3 followed by 0-4 and 4-0. While they do not have a glaring strength they do not have a glaring weakness either. They enter the playoffs playing for Sean Taylor and have as much momentum as any in the NFL.
Weaknesses: Let’s be honest. While Collins is a great story if you could chose to go to war with the 12 playoff QBs, where does Collins rank? I think you might take him over Vince Young and Eli Manning. After that, you are pretty hard pressed say he is a better option than the other QBs. He is playing great and has been doing so against playoff caliber competition. However, can he keep that dream alive for 3 road playoff games and the Super Bowl? One advantage he did have is that 2 of his final 3 games were against divisional opponents or teams that he has game planned for and seen twice a year since arriving in Washington. How does he do traveling to Seattle, Dallas, and Green Bay or places where the home team is 19-5 and the Redskins are just 4-4? This team is still offensively challenged when compared to the other playoff teams. Their challenge will be scoring enough points on the road to beat these tough teams. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have momentum on their side. They are playing with a lot of emotion, they have a new QB, and things are clicking at the right time. It’s hard to evaluate this team other than the games Collins has played in. Since he has been inserted into the lineup they are playing as well as anyone in the NFL. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: It’s a great story, but in the end every team plays with emotion in the playoffs. They just don’t score enough to beat the bigger and better teams in the NFC. There have been plenty of #6 seeds that have snuck into the playoffs by winning out the last month. Only the 2005 Steelers rode that momentum to a title. That was a veteran team that had been 15-1 the season prior and had lost Big Ben for a few games. This Skins team is not nearly on the same level as those Steelers. What would be considered a successful Postseason: Seeing they had to win 4 straight games just to make the playoffs and had the 6th pick in the draft last season, I think just being here is a good story. If they can manage a win that would be a tremendous success and anything else will be icing on the cake.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 5% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
So where does that leave us. Everyone knows that I am a Packer fan and that I will rooting for them to send #4 out a winner. So here are my picks:
Matchup I would predict based on the probabilities: (Dallas or Green Bay) vs. (Indy or New England) – These have been the two best teams in each conference from Week 1 to Week 17. From a sheer probability standpoint it is hard to pick against them playing for it all. Dallas and New England are the favorites and if you aren’t going with them you better have Green Bay or Indy in the equation. Anything outside of these 4 teams is a very big reach.
My prediction: Green Bay vs. New England – Since 1990 there has only been one time where the Number 1 seed from each Conference has met in the Super Bowl. That would be 1991 when the (14-2) Washington Redskins met the (13-3) Buffalo Bills. Seeing it is unlikely that both Number 1 seeds make it, that leaves Dallas limping to a 2-2 finish as the most likely odd team out and Green Bay as the most likely alternative. Matchup I would like to see: Green Bay vs. (New England or Indy) – How cool would it be as a Packer fan to see Brett Favre beat one of the other all time great QBs in Brady or Manning to win his second Super Bowl and ride off into the sunset as a NFL Champion. Sleeper Pick: Jacksonville vs. Seattle – I can’t imagine all of the top 4 teams would be knocked out of the playoffs. If I were going to go against all of them I would chose this matchup. Seattle has more experience than Green Bay or Dallas and Jacksonville is the best team nobody is talking about. They are the best equipped to beat the two AFC and NFC Favorites.
What do you think about the NFC Playoff Picture? Who are you predicting and whom are you hoping for? Let me know your thoughts.
With the draft being over and most of the free agents having been signed, the rosters are starting to take hold for the upcoming season. It is still pretty early to do predictions. There may be some free agent signings after June 1st, some rookies and unknowns will emerge during training camp, and the always unpredictable injury bug will cripple teams. However, what would be the fun in waiting until opening day
