It’s back. Last year I did a weekly newsletter of all the NFL Action. Due to the fact there was only one preseason game last week, I decided to hold off on my newsletter until this week. Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action.
Standings
AFC EastNFC East
1.New York Jets (1-0) 1.Washington (2-0)
2. Buffalo (0-1) 2. Dallas (0-1)
3. Miami (0-1) 3. NY Giants (0-1)
4. New England (0-1) 4. Philadelphia (0-1)
AFC SouthNFC South
1. Houston (1-0) 1. Carolina (1-0)
2. Jacksonville (1-0) 2. New Orleans (1-0)
3. Tennessee (1-0) 3. Tampa Bay (1-0)
4. Indianapolis (0-2) 4. Atlanta (0-1)
AFC NorthNFC North
1.Baltimore (1-0) 1.Detroit (1-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-0) 2.Chicago (0-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-0) 3.Green Bay (0-1)
4.Cleveland (0-1) 4.Minnesota (0-1)
AFC WestNFC West
1.Kansas City (1-0) 1. Seattle (1-0)
2. Oakland (1-0) 2. Arizona (0-1)
3. San Diego (1-0) 3. San Fran (0-1)
4. Denver (0-1) 4. St Louis (0-1)
MVP of the Week: It’s hard to go with MVPs of preseason games when the starters are only playing a couple series. Seneca Wallace had a fine opening to the preseason. He went 15 for 20 with 165 yards and 3 touchdown passes with no picks. Julius Peppers did very well for the Panthers. He sacked Sorgi, forced a fumble, and hurried him into an interception on the Colts first 2 possessions. It is crucial he rebound from 2.5 sacks in 2007. Aaron Rodgers also played a very solid game in his first start. He went 9 for 15 for 117 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 pick.
Game of the Week: Most fans aren’t going to watch 4 quarters of a preseason game unless it’s their favorite team. If you are a Panthers or Colts fan you saw a pretty good game. The Panthers took the Colts to OT and won 23-20. Carolina stopped Indy on a 4th and 1 at the Carolina 34 yard line and then proceeded to drive down the field for the game winning field goal.
The Bay of Pigs: Some years the games are not viewable. 10-7 finals. Punting exhibitions and penalty fests. For preseason there weren’t too many really bad games. I would say the worst games would go with a tie between San Fran vs. Oakland and Tampa Bay vs. Miami. Both teams had a half time score of 7-3. The Bucs threw for 181 yards to the Dolphins 134. Tampa out gained Miami on the ground 114-64. That final was 17-6. In Oakland, San Fran out passed Oakland 199-98. Oakland was able to dominate the ground 248-70. However, the result was only a final score of 18-6. Again, for a first preseason games nobody did too badly this week. I’ve seen a lot worse over the years.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Last year I had this named the Mike Martz Award for the stupid decision made by a player or coach that cost his team the victory. This was in honor of the man that used to challenge 7-yard plays and burn timeouts 3:00 minutes into the 3rd quarter when he was the headman for the Rams. Unless I see something incredibly stupid I tend not to give the award in the preseason. If you saw something like that this week make sure you leave it in the comments section.
Hospital Visit: There were a lot of significant injuries this week. The scariest injury of the weekend went to Denver linebacker Louis Green. Green lay motionless on the Reliant Stadium field for several minutes. Green was put on a stretcher and was moving his fingers and hands as he was taken from the field. Green was released from the hospital and all signs are that he will be okay.
Bobby Engram is going to be sidelined 6-8 weeks with a crack in his shoulder bone. He was the leading receiver from a year ago and the one veteran influence amongst a unit with a lot of question marks. Hasselbeck is going to be playing with a lot of unproven wide receivers. The Seahawks will need Engram back ASAP.
Madieu Williams suffered a neck injury and is expected to miss 6 weeks. That is a big injury for a team that was depending on him to sure up a secondary that ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed.
Charlie Batch was a big injury for the Steelers. He has been with them since 2003 as their backup quarterback. He broke his collarbone in Friday’s game against the Eagles and is expected to miss 10-weeks with that injury. That left Dennis Dixon as the backup, which prompted the signing of Byron Leftwich. If Big Ben were to go down for a couple weeks the Steelers could be in a big bind. Batch has filled in for Big Ben in the past and done very well for the Steelers.
Finally, Shawn Andrews just reported to camp this week, citing depression for the first 17 days he missed. Quoting the AP, "I'm willing to admit that I've been going through a very bad time with depression," Andrews told the Daily News in his first public comments about his training camp absence. "I've finally decided to get professional help. It's not something that blossomed up overnight. I'm on medication, trying to get better."
First of all, you have to hope that he is getting treatment and can recover from this. Situations like this remind you that there are bigger things going on in these guys life other than football. From a football standpoint, having your 2-time Pro Bowl guard out of camp for this reason is never a good thing. They need him to anchor that offensive line. He is a fantastic guard and is a big part of that football team.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Brett Favre – I am ready to be done talking about him from a non-football standpoint. It is good to see him in a camp and start being talked about as a football player and not as a distraction. When he starts making plays good or bad I would love to talk about those.
I think all NFL fans are glad that the soap opera part of the story is over. Now it would be nice if the announcers would move past it. The ESPN crew beat that horse to death on Thursday night with the Cardinals and the Saints. They picked right up where they left off on Monday Night.
When it comes to the NFL I like hearing about Favre more than just about anything, but enough is enough. He isn’t with the Cardinals, Saints, or Packers and to mention his name on every play is a bit silly. While some people will want to evaluate the trade on a play-by-play basis, it is going to take a year or two to ultimately find out if the Packers made the right call. A play-by-play analysis of Rodger’s development is as absurd as mentioning Favre’s name on every play.
2) Aaron Rodgers played solid, but… – I got the feeling that many people in the national media were looking for validation of the trade in that game. It’s a preseason game. Most teams play vanilla defenses. Cincinnati was a terrible defense in 2007.
Even if it meant everything in the world you can’t evaluate trades on a game-by-game basis. Here are two random game lines from two quarterbacks careers:
Both games were played in 2006. Both games were against Detroit where Detroit was the road team. The September game is Rex Grossman in a 34-7 victory over the Lions. The December game is Brett Favre in a 17-9 victory over Detroit. That doesn’t make Rex Grossman a better quarterback than Favre. He just played better against Detroit at home that year. Yet this is how many in the media is choosing to evaluate Rodgers vs. Favre.
Aaron Rodgers is probably under more pressure for a first year starter than any player in the history of the NFL. He is going to be inconsistent this year just like most first year starters are inconsistent. The important part of Monday’s game was to see how he responded to that pressure, something he did not handle well in the Family Night Scrimmage. Other than that you weren’t going to find much out.
Here was my impression of Rodgers. He impressed me in the sense that there wasn’t a throw he couldn’t make, something people have been talking about since he took over for Favre. He had good velocity on the ball. He had command of the offense. He didn’t stray from the pocket like many young quarterbacks do. Fleeing the pocket doesn’t give the play a chance to develop. He needs to feel the pressure a little better. He missed a safety blitz and was hit a number of times. If he does not improve in that area he will not play the full schedule. He also needs to work on his touch and accuracy.
He played a good game against a defense that was not very solid last year. He also did that without Grant or Jennings, two of the Packer’s biggest offensive weapons. My doubts haven’t been so much about his abilities as they have been about his ability to stay healthy.
Regardless of where you are at with this guy it is going to take a lot more games for anyone to make a determination about where he is at as a professional player. Put a check mark on the good column Monday Night. He played a solid game and will need to build off that game and keep getting better. Based on his attitude since March I would expect him to do just that.
3) Larry Johnson looked healthy – This is a guy that gained 1,750 yards on 5.2 yards per carry scoring 20 touchdowns in 2005. He set a NFL record with 416 carries for 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2006. He never looked right last season gaining 559 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and scoring only 3 touchdowns. He was hurt midseason against the Packers and missed the rest of the season.
Johnson ran for a touchdown on the Chiefs first drive as the Chiefs beat the Bears 24-20. He only had 8 carries for 18 yards, but had a nice run up the middle past Brian Urlacher for 7 yards and scored on a 5-yard touchdown.
People are very concerned about him for a couple reasons. The Chiefs quarterback situation dictates that defenses will concentrate on him. How he responds from a broken foot is going to be key if he is going to get the carries he needs for the Chiefs to be successful.
18 yards on eight carries is nothing to jump up and down about. But he had a couple nice runs and looked to have some of his explosiveness back. The Chiefs aren’t going to work him to hard in the preseason. This was an encouraging sign and is hopefully a sign of things to come.
4) Seattle impressive in opening win – It’s hard to tell what is what in the preseason. However, Seattle had a very nice opening game. They traveled to Minnesota and won 34-17. What was encouraging was 35 carries for 162 yards, which is an average of 4.6 yards per carry.
Again, it’s preseason. The Williams Brothers didn’t play 4 quarters. Allen wasn’t chasing the quarterback the whole time. The scored was tied 17-17 at the half, so the blowout happened with a lot of backups that won’t be on the field come Week 1.
This team is set at quarterback. Brees, Hasselbeck, and Romo are probably the three best quarterbacks in the NFC. Having a good quarterback will keep you in a lot of games. If Seattle can run the ball like they did against the Vikings that will be a big plus. Mare was also 2-2 on field goals and 4-4 on extra points, which is much better than his horrendous 2007 season. How he replaces Brown this year is critical for them winning close games in 2008.
I have questioned how this offense is going to do in 2008. Scoring 34 points on the road with an offense that has some questions is never a bad thing. However, Bobby Engram injuring his shoulder is a very bad thing. That leaves them even weaker at a position that has a lot of question marks. Regardless, Seattle impressed against a good team and deserves credit for that.
5) 49er’s quarterback situation – It was interesting to see JT O’Sullivan starting for the 49ers in their first preseason game. Nolan’s reason for that was that he knows what he has in Smith and Hill and wanted to see O’Sullivan work with the first team. If that doesn’t tell that Smith has hit rock bottom, I don’t know what will. Smith played in only 7 games and threw only 193 passes and you don’t want to see what your $49.5 million dollar investment looks like so that you can see what a 6th round pick from the 2002 draft looks like?
I’ve argued with quite a few 49ers that have argued that it is too early to label Smith a bust. If labeling Bust were the equivalent of a football game it would be 35-14 with about 4:00 minutes left in the game with Team Bust comfortably in the lead. If the coach is worried about what he has in JT O’Sullivan that is an obvious indicator that he isn’t too high on Alex Smith.
The reason O’Sullivan is getting a look is because he played in Detroit last year, which is where Martz coached. O’Sullivan has the best knowledge of the offense. I would not be shocked if he ends up starting the season as the number one quarterback for the 49ers.
A Look Ahead: It’s pretty hard to get hyped for the 2nd preseason game. Once the regular season starts I’m going to pick the best 5 games on the schedule. I’m not doing that with preseason games. There is going to be a lot of attention paid to the Jets and Redskins as this will be Favre’s first action with a team other than the Packers since 1991. People will be curious to see how he looks in this new offense. New England and Tampa Bay features two playoff teams. The Giants and Browns could be an entertaining matchup.
I’m not going to waste too much time previewing preseason games. As teams take the field for the second time we should start to see some trends and can start looking at possible concerns or possible things to be optimistic about. The key is that teams build some momentum and keep their players healthy. All in all it was a good week of preseason action and it is nice to have football back. Let me know what you thought about this week's developments in the NFL and your favorite team's performance in the preseason.
It is finally nice to have something to talk about other than Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers standoff. With the Saints acquiring Jeremy Shockey and the Redskins acquiring Jason Taylor there is going to be immediate speculation as to how much this improves those teams chances. Here is a look at how I believe this changes the NFC landscape.
Jeremy Shockey - Jeremy Shockey is a little bit overrated in my mind. He never has had a 1,000 yard season. Only twice in his career has he had more than 700 yards receiving. The most touchdowns he has had in a season is 7, which he has done on two occasions.
People tend to lump Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey into the same conversation. In my mind there is Gates and Gonzalez and then there is every other tight end. Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow must show that they can have seasons like they had last season year in and year out to join that class.
That being said Shockey is still a fantastic addition. Jeremy Shockey has never played with a great QB. Early in his career he played with Kerry Collins. Kerry Collins did lead the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2000. Collins was an average quarterback by 2002 and 2003. While Eli Manning showed he could lead a team to a Super Bowl in 2007 he has a career 73.4 rating and a career 54.7 completion percentage. That isn’t going to help Shockey put up big numbers in the regular season. Jeremy Shockey has played well considering the offense and quarterback he has played with in New York during his career.
The Saints present an interesting opportunity for him. Colston and Bush are the main offensive weapons for the Saints. Meacham and Henderson provide options at the other wide receiver. The two weapons that offense has lacked in recent years is a consistent running game and a good tight end. Mark Campbell, Billy Miller, and Ernie Conwell were the tight ends in 2006. Eric Johnson joined the fold in 2007.
Shockey is going to help in both regards. He is an excellent blocker that will be able to help open up holes for the running backs. He will also be able to stretch the middle of the field and keep the linebackers and safeties honest. Drew Brees loves throwing to the tight end. Gates had 964 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2004 and 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2005 catching passes in San Diego with Brees.
I picked the Saints to go 10-6 this season and with the NFC South before the addition of Shockey. This move makes me more certain of that pick. I still wouldn’t say the Saints are a 12-4 or 13-3 team, because we don’t know how improved their defense will be. Vilma, Ellis, McCray, and Ga y were all added to a defense that really struggled stopping the pass. If the Saints are not improved in that area they will still struggle to win games consistently in 2008. What they shouldn’t struggle to do is put up a lot of points on the scoreboard. Jeremy Shockey makes this dangerous offense even more explosive. He should help the Saints win the very average NFC South.
As far as the effect on the NY Giants. They won the Super Bowl without Shockey playing a single down in the playoffs in 2007. Boss is by no means of Shockey's caliber in the passing game. He blocks well and the Giants scored enough points in the playoffs to survive and advance without Shockey.
I like the move because Shockey was going to be nothing but a distraction in 2008. He was not happy with the Giants front office. I think it allows their younger receivers to be a bigger part of the offense, which is a good thing. The Giants may turn the 2nd and 5th round picks they got into valuable players in 2009. While it puts them a weapon down in 2008, I don't think it will affect the Giants season nearly as much as the retirement of Strahan. How the Giants adjust to life without him will define their 2008 season.
Jason Taylor - This moved I’m not as excited about. I understand why the Redskins had to make the move. They lost DE Phillip Daniels to an ACL tear on the opening day of training camp. They also lost DE Alex Buzbee for the season to a ruptured Achilles' tendon. Those injuries necessitated the trade to acquire Taylor. The Redskins had to give up a 2nd round pick in 2009 and a 6th round pick in 2010. That is not a steep price to pay for the decades leading sack artist so long as he plays more than this year. He has stated his plan is to play out his remaining contract, which has 2 years left. He will team with Andre Collins to give the Redskins two players that accumulated 10 plus sacks in 2007. That is important in a division with Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, and Eli Manning.
Obviously Taylor makes this defense better. He was the 2006 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He has the most sacks over the last 5 seasons and since 2000. The Redskins ranked 16th in sacks with 33. The NY Giants were first in the league with 53 sacks and the Cowboys were 3rd with 46. The Eagles were tied for 9th with 36. The Redskins were the weakest team in the division at putting pressure on the quarterback. That is essential for any successful defense. You should be able to pencil Taylor in for 10 sacks this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Redskins also finish in the top 10 in that department. Taylor should make other players around him better, because of the attention he will take away from those other guys. While Andre Carter is a good player he does not strike fear into offensive coordinators like Jason Taylor.
The problem is that the Redskins didn’t start the season 5-7 last year because of their poor pass rush. The only game that really hurt them was in the New England Patriots game. When you lose 52-7 there are a lot of problems in play.
The fact is that Washington’s problems centered on the offensive side of the ball. Neither of their starting running backs had a good yards per carry. Portis had a 3.9 and Betts had a 3.6. Teams put a lot of guys in the box to stop the running game. However, the pass offense could not capitalize. The Redskins threw only 18 touchdown passes as a team. Chris Cooley led the team in receptions (66) and touchdown catches (8). The receivers accounted for only 7 touchdown catches on the season. Santana Moss led the receivers with 61 catches for 808 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Redskins attempted to resolve those issues by drafting Thomas and Kelly in the 2nd round to compete at the wide receiver spot and drafted Davis to help out at 2nd tight end. While I graded the Redskins draft high and these players may eventually help wide receivers usually need two seasons before they are ready to contribute in their third season. While R. Moss, Bouldin, and Colston are exceptions to that rule they are just that, exceptions.
The Redskins have a new offense. They are going to run a West Coast offense in 2008. Todd Collins has never run that type of offense, which was one of the main reasons he was the backup with the Saunders run offense. While Jason Campbell did run a West Coast offense at Auburn saying he is going to be ready with that in Week 1 is like saying a young race car driver is going to be good in NASCAR because he excelled at bumper cars at the local carnival. While some of the principles will be the same a lot of the terminology will be different. The speed of the SEC does not compare to the speed of the NFL. He hasn’t run that offense in over 2 years. Even Jim Zorn said that he was going to teach Campbell this offense as though he had never run it before. That is why I believe Brett Favre would be a great fit in Washington. He has run the West Coast offense, could help teach it to Jason Campbell, and give the Redskins a great shot at making the playoffs this season. As the NY Giants proved last year once you make the dance anything can happen.
That isn’t to say that the offensive woes are all Jason Campbell’s fault. What it is saying is that someone of Brett Favre’s caliber is going to put up better numbers with average to above average receivers than Jason Campbell would. It is more a testament to Favre’s abilities in Green Bay to lead the league in touchdown passes working with Bill Schroeder and Robert Ferguson than a slam on Jason Campbell.
The problem is that as things stand now the Cowboys added Zach Thomas, Michael Jenkins, and PacMan Jones. The Eagles added Assante Samuel. The NY Giants did lose 4 defenders from last years Super Bowl team, most notably Strahan and Wilson. However, they still have a strong supply of pass rushers and their secondary should be improved over the 2007 regular season despite the loss of Wilson. The Redskins just haven’t added much on offense other than their draft picks. I think their defense will keep them in a lot of games this season, but I’m not sure their offense has enough for them to win a lot of divisional games. Winning divisional games is a must for teams looking to make the playoffs.
Jason Taylor is a great player, but he isn’t going to significantly help the offense. I had the Redskins finishing 7-9 without him, which was good for 4th in the division. Remember Jason Taylor had 11 sacks in 2007 and the Dolphins won 1 game. Maybe the Redskins get to 8-8 this season, but I think their potential offensive woes will overshadow any gains they made on defense in a brutal NFC East.
As far as the effect on the Dolphins. They got a 2nd round pick in 2009 and a 6th round pick in 2010. That was good value for a veteran player that may not play more than a season or two and wanted out of Miami. They won only one game with him in 2007. They are in complete rebuilding mode. I highly doubt they go to 0-16 because of this move. It will hurt this defense, but was a necessary move to get the franchise going in the right direction.
That’s my take on the two latest big free agency moves. I had originally planned to release my Playoff and Super Bowl Predictions today, but I am going to hold off until training camps start up, just because of the uncertainty of the Brett Favre situation. There are a few destinations that might sway my thinking on playoff predictions, including if he did stay in Green Bay. I’d like to give that some time to play out before I release my final predictions. How do you the Shockey and Taylor moves affect the landscape in the NFC? Let me know your thoughts.
As I promised here is the first in 8 installments of division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. You could have a Ricky Williams style retirement on the eve of camp. Brett Favre could decide to un-retire. However, with what we have in place as of today here is what I see taking place in 2008.
Some people will say it is way to early to start making predictions. My response to that would be that it is always too early to make predictions. How many people are going to hop off the Patriots bandwagon if they go 0-4 in preseason, barring a Tom Brady season ending injury? How many people are going to jump on the Dolphins bandwagon if they go 4-0?
Unless there is a major injury it is fairly safe to say this is how I am going to feel about the divisions. If you think I am starting these too early leave a comment about what you think is going to change for your team between now and the start of the season that I am not taking into account.
In my first installment I am starting with the AFC East. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC East was by far the most lopsided division in 2007. The Patriots won the division by 9 games. While 16-0 helped create that lofty margin, the Bills didn’t do much to keep the division competitive going 7-9 in second place. The Jets and Dolphins finished 4-12 and 1-15 respectively.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)New England Patriots
07 Record: 16-0
Points Scored: 589 (1st)
Points Allowed: 274 (4th)
Playoff Result: Lost Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule:99-157 (.387) (32nd in NFL)
Strengths: When a team completes the first 16-0 season in NFL history, there isn’t going to be a lot of weaknesses to look at. Bill Belichick has done a great job keeping the Patriots the most dominant team in the NFL since 2001. The strength of the team is their offense and that offense broke NFL records that many thought were untouchable. Their 589 points scored in a single season demonstrates the ease with which this offense moved the ball. Patriots starts with Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Tom Brady completed a historic NFL season, in which he won his first MVP award. The future Hall of Famer passed for 4,806 yards, 50 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 117.2. The major benefactors of those big numbers were Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Moss had a record setting 23 touchdown receptions to go along with 98 catches and 1,493 yards. Wes Welker had 112 catches for 1175 yards and 8 touchdowns.
The Patriots also had a very good running game. While injuries prevented one back from accumulating all the numbers, the Patriots as a team ranked a respectable 13th in rushing yards. Laurence Maroney is their most promising runner and if he can stay healthy he should be able to eclipse 1,000 yards.
The Patriots didn’t punt the ball a lot and scoring touchdowns were so frequent that we didn’t get to see much in the way of their special teams. All in all their return units and kicking game was fairly strong and should continue to be that way in 2008.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to call a defense that ranked 4th in the NFL a weakness. The Patriots defense would be the strength of most teams. But considering how good the offense was in 2007; that is what the defense is for the Patriots. The Patriots D did a lot of good things in 2007. They were very good at pressuring the quarterback. The Patriots ranked 2nd in the NFL at sacking the quarterback. They also ranked 6th in passing yards allowed, which is amazing considering how far behind teams were the majority of the game. The Patriots were however very average at stopping the run. While they ranked tenth in yards allowed, they ranked 26th in yards per carry at 4.4.
The defensive line is still in great shape. Wilfork is a beast and still in his 20s. Seymour and Warren are excellent on the ends. They also have good depth behind them. The biggest challenge for the Patriots on defense is overcoming age issues in the linebacker core and replacing heavy losses in the secondary. All of their starting linebackers are 30 years old or older. Thomas is still an excellent player with a few prime years left. Seau is 39 years old and Bruschi will be 35 years old in a month. That was the big motivation for drafting Mayo with the 10th pick and Crable in the 3rd round. Both will need to contribute immediately.
Samuel was a huge free agent loss in the secondary. They also lost #### and Wilson. Harrison returns, but is 36 years old and was susceptible to the pass last season. The Patriots signed CBs Fernando Bryant and Lewis Sanders to go along with S Tank Williams. While those should be good players, it is hard to believe they will be better than what the Patriots lost. They also drafted Wheatley in the 2nd round to provide depth.
Prediction: It will be interesting to see if the rest of the NFL has caught up to the Patriots in 2008. The Patriots were light years ahead of the rest of the league during the first 10 games of the season. As the season progressed, teams started to close the gap. Still the Patriots went 18-0, before losing by a field goal in the Super Bowl. Losing by a field goal isn’t exactly being figured out.
The schedule doesn’t look very challenging. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage with a .387 winning percentage. They only play 4 playoff teams from 2007. That is the minimum for a first place team. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will pan out as the easiest schedule, but based on last season it doesn’t look very challenging.
I think the Patriots will still have one of the top 5 scoring offenses in the NFL. I think they will still have a respectable defense, but one that either barely makes the top 10 or is on the cusp. Even though as a whole they won’t be as good as 2007, they should still have more than enough weapons to run away with the division and earn a first round bye in the playoffs.
New England Patriot's Record: 13-3 – AFC East Divisional Champion; AFC #2 Seed
2) New York Jets
07 Record: 4-12
Points Scored: 268 (25th)
Points Allowed: 355 (19th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:117-139 (.457) (25th in NFL)
Strengths: Eric Mangini had a hard fall from grace in 2007. After being considered one of the hottest coaching prospects entering 2007, it is back to the drawing board in 2008. It is hard to look back to 2007, because the NY Jets have been so active in free agency. The NY Jets were not awful on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the pass. The Jets ranked 9th in pass yards allowed and 6th in pass touchdowns allowed. Keep in mind that part of that was due to the bad job they did stopping the run.
On offense, Thomas Jones did have the 1,000 yard season the Jets hoped he would have. The bad news was that he did it on 3.6 yards per carry and had only one rushing touchdown the whole season. Cotchery had 82 receptions for 1,130 yards and 2 touchdowns. Coles had 55 catches for 646 yards and 6 touchdowns while being limited by injuries for a good part of the season. Both were impressive given their starting quarterback situation.
The Jets have some issues going in at quarterback this season. Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens will be the main signal callers for the Jets in 2008. When Pennington is healthy he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He is extremely accurate and makes good decisions. Injuries have robbed him of a lot of games. Clemens is the probable starter heading into camp, but by no means did he do so well in 2008 that the Jets wouldn’t contemplate going back to Pennington should Clemens prove ineffective.
The kicking game looks to be in good shape. Nugent and Graham both had solid seasons. Neither is a major concern heading into this season.
Weaknesses: The NY Jets had weaknesses all over the board. They only won 4 games, and 2 of those were against the 1-15 Dolphins. They were run over by opposing running backs the whole season, giving up the 29th most rushing yards in the NFL. They struggled to control the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. They finished 19th in rushing yards gained and 30th in rushing touchdowns scored. It was a year to forget for a team coming off a wildcard birth and 10 wins in 2006.
The Jets decided to fix this mess by hitting free agency as if there was no tomorrow. They signed Alan Faneca and Damien Woody to upgrade the offensive line. They signed TE Bubba Franks and FB Tony Richardson to improve their blocking at those positions. When those guys can stay healthy they are very effective in that regard. They also drafted Dustin Keller to give them a receiving threat at tight end. Finally, the Jets guaranteed the final $11 million of Cole’s contract to keep him happy.
On defense they traded a third and fifth round pick for DT Kris Jenkins and signed OLB Kelvin Pace away from the Arizona Cardinals. They drafted Vernon Gholston with the 6th pick. He was one of the premier pass rushers in the entire draft. They also drafted Dwight Lowery to add depth in the secondary. Finally, they signed S Kerry Rhodes to five year, $33.5 million extension ($20 million guaranteed) extension to keep him in the secondary.
What all this means is that the Jets were one of the busiest players in free agency and the first round of the draft. They could have as many as 7 new starters or one third of the starting positions. That means that you really can’t look at last year’s results as many key contributors on this team are players that were not on the Jet’s roster in 2007.
Prediction: It’s hard for me to believe that the Jets aren’t going to improve on their record from 2007 given their strength of schedule and all the free agents they signed and high draft picks they made. The question is whether that is going to be enough for them to get into the playoffs.
Playing the Dolphins and Bills twice can always help. They get the NFC West and AFC West meaning San Fran, St Louis, Oakland, and Kansas City. They will win more than 4 games in 2008. That said, I still am not in love with adding a bunch of high priced veteran free agents and throwing it together and hoping for greatness the following season. History is full of teams that crashed and burned using that approach.
I think it is going to take this team some time to gel. I also am not in love with their quarterback situation. Pennington’s best days are behind him and Clemens didn’t show me anything to get very excited about. Given their schedule and improvement in talent, I am looking for them to get to 7-9 or possibly 8-8 this season. Anything more than 8 wins would be a major surprise to me.
NY Jet's Record: 7-9 – AFC East 2nd place; No Playoffs
3)Buffalo Bills
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 252 (30th)
Points Allowed: 354 (18th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:115-141 (.449) (27th in NFL)
Strengths:#### Jauron has done a very good job with this squad since being hired by the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills were your classic effort team in 2008. Despite ranking 30th in yards gained and 31st in yards allowed they were able to make enough plays to win games. Critics will point to their 7-9 record as being the result of 4 wins over the Dolphins and Jets. Still, other than the Patriots games, Jaguars, and Steelers the Bills played most of their schedule fairly competitively. They were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys in the games closing seconds. They beat a playoff team in Washington. This is a team that was able to give teams fits with their hustle and effort.
The Bills have some quality pieces as well. Lee Evans could be a great receiver if he could get the right quarterback situation. #### had a very good rookie campaign and is expected to do big things in Year 2. Fred Jackson was a quality back up. Edwards played some good minutes and will be competing with Losman for the starting job. Edwards should be the favorite to earn the starting nod. On defense Aaron Schobel is always considered one of the leagues better defensive ends.
The kicking game is pretty solid. Rian Lindell was 24 for 27 in 2007. Brian Moorman had grossed as high as 45.7 in 2005 was down to 40.8 in 2007. Roscoe Parish is a promising return man.
Weaknesses: While the Bills had a nice season, they need to get more good players if they want to take the next jump. They were anemic on offense and the defense was not good enough to carry the team. The Bills did a nice job of upgrading their defense. Marcus Stroud is a nice addition to the defensive line. They also added Spencer Johnson to sure up the DT position. The Bills drafted DE Chris Ellis to improve the defensive line. They signed Kawika Mitchell away from the World Champion NY Giants. He should help the linebacker spot. Finally, the Bills singed William James and drafted Leodis McKelvin and Reggie Corner to improve the secondary. If these moves pan out, the Bills defense will be a much better unit in 2008.
The Bills didn’t completely ignore the offense. They drafted James Hardy out of Indiana in the second round. He should make a nice compliment to established starter Lee Evans. The Bills are gambling that their young offensive starters will continue to progress and will be aided by a much stronger defense that will keep them in most games.
Prediction: The Bills did make several additions that should improve this team. However, I do not believe they have caught up to the Patriots yet and the NY Jets were as active as any team in the league in free agency. The Dolphins have also been busy. I don’t expect the Bills to go 4-2 in their division in 2008.
That said, the Bills do have some winnable out of division games if the Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, and Rams. I expect the Bills to be right around 7-9 or 8-8 in 2008. If the Bills finished slightly ahead of the NY Jets that would not surprise me. If the Bills ended up tied or slightly behind the Jets, that too would not surprise me. The bottom line is that I think both the Bills and the Jets are both teams hovering around .500 and both have a ways to go before entering the playoff discussion in the very deep and talented AFC.
Buffalo Bill's Record: 7-9 – AFC 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Miami Dolphins
07 Record: 1-15
Points Scored: 267 (26th)
Points Allowed: 437 (30th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:119-137 (.465) (22nd in NFL)
Strengths: The Dolphins had been flirting with contention in 2005 and were a trendy playoff pick in 2006. They finished that season 6-10 and by 2007 the bottom fell out and they went 1-15, with their sole win coming over the 5-11 Baltimore Ravens in OT.
The Dolphins basically played 2 seasons in 2007. In their first 8 games they put up points with Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers, but their defense was no where to be found. The Patriots, Cowboys, Browns, and other high powered offenses torched them on a week to week basis. They gave up 244 points in their first 8 games, but scored a respectable 166 points.
The defense made good strides in the second half. They gave up only 193 points in the second half. By that time Ronnie Brown was gone for the year, Trent Green was on IR, and Chambers was in San Diego. The offense only scored 101 points in their last 8 games and the Dolphins were officially in disaster. They lost their first 13 games, before beating the Ravens in their 14th game. It would be their only victory of the season.
There are no easy answers in Miami. First year Head Coach Tony Sparano is inheriting one gigantic mess. They have a blossoming star running back coming back from knee surgery. They do not have a quality starting quarterback in place. They are young and unproven at wide receiver. The offensive line is a mess. On defense, they are an older team. Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are proven commodities in the league, but nearing the end of their great careers. Zack Thomas is no longer with the team. They need to start rebuilding the defensive line and secondary. The special teams could use improvement in all areas.
That is why the Dolphins hired The Tuna. Bill Parcells has been entrusted with the difficult task of putting the Dolphins back together again. He is starting at the bottom and working his way up.
Weaknesses: Here is what the Dolphins did this offseason to start improving the team. Parcells started getting rid of older players and non productive players and made wholesale changes to the roster. He brought in Josh McCown and drafted Chad Henne to go along with Beck to give them a better QB situation. He decided instead of drafting McFadden to keep Brown and improve the offensive line. The Dolphins singed Justin Smiley to a nice contract and drafted Jake Long with the first pick to play tackle. He is already signed. They also drafted Shawn Murphy to play guard. They then acquired tight end Anthony Fasano in a trade from the Cowboys and signed Earnest Wilford and Tab Perry to improve the receiving core. There are going to be a lot of knew faces for the Dolphins on offense.
The same is going to be true on defense. The Dolphins may not win a lot of gamed, but they aren’t going to lose with the same cast of characters. They signed safeties Chris Crocker and Keith Davis. They aren’t big names, but should improve that position. They added Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor to the linebacker core. They traded for Jason Ferguson and signed Randy Starks to improve the defensive tackle spot. They also drafted Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford to add to the defensive end position. Those new faces should go well with Jason Taylor and Joey Porter.
The Dolphins are in the midst of a full rebuilding effort. There will be many new and unfamiliar faces in the lineup in 2008 as the Dolphins try to put the embarrassment of a 1-15 campaign behind them.
Prediction: The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots were not built in a day. It took years of good drafts, solid free agency, and developing young players to turn those franchises into the powerhouses they are today. The Dolphins aren’t going to fix this problem overnight. Bill Parcells is well aware of that. He did an excellent job of bringing in players and trying to change the culture of this team. It will be interesting to see if the riff between Jason Taylor and he is reparable once this team gets to playing football. Evidently, Bill Parcells is not a fan of Dancing with the Stars.
The Dolphins are still looking at being the 4th best team in this division. They may be able to steal a game or two against either the Jets or Bills. The Chiefs, Raiders, 49ers, and Rams offer chances for victory. They play the Ravens and Texans, which will also give them a chance to compete. It isn’t going to be the frustration of 2007, but it isn’t going to be very pretty either. I look for the Dolphins to win 4 more games, but still sure up the bottom of the AFC East.
Miami Dolphin's Record: 5-11 – AFC 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”
‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”
On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."
We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road. Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks. Most will not live up to expectations. Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams. Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes.
We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed. None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action. It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust. Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players. It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.
Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now? Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers. Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player. If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.
Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft. I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008. I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names. I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super. However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5. 22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.
The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there. Both were selected in the 3rd round.
The position I struck out on was wide receiver. I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round. Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round. That was brutal.
Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B. By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.
5 questions
1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right. Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons. Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007. He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself. They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball. He was the player that could most help them do that. By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.
The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting. With these guys you don’t. The draft can be very unforgiving. Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss. They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver.
However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams. The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen. I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired. This was a good gamble. The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own. This may end up going down as a win-win trade.
2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer. Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong.
Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick. If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.
This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy. It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta. It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them. They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.
With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players. While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.
3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long? Absolutely. Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later. Both players were safe picks. I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft. Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling. Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling. There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round. There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10.
By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one. If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.
4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure. This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product. The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition. There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi. Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois. The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school. The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him. Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.
The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty. While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft. I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round. If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble. If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department. At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round. Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback. If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.
5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy. Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now. He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt. Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.
Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing. If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend. The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later. Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer.
Brohm fills two needs. First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them. From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense. Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history. That is not a good sign.
The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out. If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games. If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future. The value was good and the pick made sense. Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.
5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.
1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen. If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too. That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team. While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.
Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams. The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season. It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith. At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line. You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends.
The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick. It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player.
The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft. While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board. He should substantially upgrade their defensive line. Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement. Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round. He should help improve the secondary.
Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2. Jamal Charles could be a quality running back. Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft. I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.
The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota. If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road. This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.
2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year. Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007. Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10. Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down. They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State. He is a bigger receiver. Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end. Finally, they added Malcom Kelly. Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout. Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.
On the second day they added a lot of depth. Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly. Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle. They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner. This was a major need as well.
The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position. Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone. The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone. When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot.
Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round. They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense. If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.
3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft. The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long. Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007. Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick. That was good value.
In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick. He should help on their defensive line. Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.
The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks. On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs. Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round. He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.
While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year. They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle. The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL. Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line. If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard.
Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off. Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength. If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment. Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round. Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft. I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick
This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad. In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft. They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery. He may move to receiver.
They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development. Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.
5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick. I had him rated slightly higher than Jones. However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber. The pick makes sense in that respect.
Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick. That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up. Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett.
The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names. The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round. They have excellent potential to do that. Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3. With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.
5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.
1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver. I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade. Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game. White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.
Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards. They have to find a way to upgrade that position. Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan. While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver. The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California. I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind. William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy. That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.
Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft. The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys. Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson. Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks. I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be.
I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs. I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points. The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves. The Chargers have a lot of weapons. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace. Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year.
Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft. In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.
2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out. It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter. However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect. I thought this was a substantial reach. Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell. That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value.
Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.”
I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round. The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith. That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line.
I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back. While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect. This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City.
3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds. Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion. But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round?
Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized. A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner. I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point. The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.
Then they drafted Justin King on day two. He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver. All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that. With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.
4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9. I thought he would slip later into the first round. But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?
The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into. Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ. It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.
Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson. While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that. Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.
Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him. Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season. While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2.
The Bengals did okay in the later rounds. Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver. If he can stay healthy he could contribute. Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise. He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence. At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp.
While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out. If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft. I don’t think they did much after that. I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008. Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.
5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out? I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots. I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft.
I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans. But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress. He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.
I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10. Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft. Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round. I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round. I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo. All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.
Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round. Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions. Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly. When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.
The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years. Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right. They selected linebacker depth and special teams help. Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell.
Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo. I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson. You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft. That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.
That is my draft recap. Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May. Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.
Now that everyone has recoverd from watching the Pro Bowl it is time to get back to business. The Patriots losing Super Bowl XLII has created the opportunity to do a lot of interesting articles that many of us never thought were possible just one week ago. In addition to recapping the Super Bowl I have looked at the Patriots standing among the greatest teams never to win a Super Bowl Ring. But as our famous Little Red Riding Hood so eloquently put, "The Past is in the Past."
One of the more interesting takes I have seen on the message boards is the sentiment by Patriots fans that the fans of the other 31 NFL clubs need not worry, because the Patriots will be back in the Bowl again next season. While I can't blame them for being optimistic I get a kick out of that. You would think after being so certain that their team would go 19-0 that it would take a little longer than a week for the Patriot fans to count their 19-0 Shirts before they hatch. Many of them were singing the next year chant the very night the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.
Seeing the Past is in the Past I figured it would be interesting to see if the Future is also the Future. I don't have Tea Leaves or a Crystal Ball that can see the future. Therefore I decided to do what I often do in these situations. I look at NFL History. Is Boston Fan correct in assuming that his or her team will be back on the biggest stage as early as next season?
I decided to look at this from 3 different perspectives. 1) How have the teams that finished a season with one or fewer losses since 1960 done the following season? 2) How have teams done the season after losing the Super Bowl? 3) How long have the previous dynasties managed to keep their Window of Dominance open?
1) If you look at how the teams with one loss or fewer did the next season since 1960 it really doesn't look promising for the Patriots. Here is how the teams did after losing 1 game or fewer the season after their historic run.
1962 Packers (13-1) - Finished 11-2-1 in 1963. Second in Division - No Playoffs 1968 Colts (13-1) - Finished 8-5-1 in 1969. Second in Division. No Playoffs 1972 Dolphins (14-0) - Finished 12-2 in 1973. Won Super Bowl 24-7. 1984 49ers (15-1) - Finished 10-6 in 1985. Lost Wildcard Game 17-3. 1985 Bear (15-1) - Finished 14-2 in 1986. Lost Divisional Game 27-13. 1998 Vikings (15-1) - Finished 10-6 in 1999. Lost Divisional Game 49-37. 2004 Steelers (15-1) - Finished 11-5 in 2005. Won Super Bowl 21-10.
Clearly the bottom didn't fall out. If anyone thinks the Patriots are doomed to miss the playoffs in 2008 they are probably kidding themselves, especially when you consider the division in which the reside. Even with The NFL Draft and Free Agency it seems hard to believe the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets can close the gap in one season.
All of the teams after 1970 on this list at least made the playoffs the following s
