This is my final installment of eight NFL division previews.  While there is still over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp.  However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft.   Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC West had a rough year in 2007.  Seattle won the division with a 10-6 record, but was 1-1 against playoff teams.  They won their wildcard game against Washington before being blown out by Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Arizona finished 8-8, but two disappointing losses to the 49ers kept them out of playoff contention.  The 49ers were a trendy pick to win the division after a free agency spending spree and finished 5-11.  Finally, the Rams who were also a trendy pick to win the division finished 3-13 and had the second overall pick in the draft.   Injuries and inconsistent play were largely responsible for a division that produced only one team with a winning record. 

The NFC West has been owned by the Seattle Seahawks, who have won the division for 4 consecutive seasons and made the playoffs for 5 consecutive seasons.  Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC West.

1)            Arizona Cardinals

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 404 (7th)

Points Allowed: 399 (27th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule:  119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Arizona Cardinals have one of the strongest passing offenses in the NFL.  Larry Fitzgerald had 100 catches for 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Anquan Boldin added 71 catches for 853 yards and 9 touchdowns, despite missing 5 starts with an injury.  Those two are the most explosive wide receiver combo in the NFC.  Fitzgerald will be 25 years old at the end of August and Boldin will be 28 years old in October.   If the Cardinals can resolve Boldin’s contract issues they should have a dominant receiving duo for years to come.  Bryant Johnson was a solid 3rd receiver and is only 27 years old.  Losing him to division rival San Francisco was a meaningful loss.  He has filled in well in he past when Boldin or Fitzgerald was hurt.  Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope are young tight ends that the Cardinals hope can emerge.  The Cardinals are loaded with young offensive weapons at WR and TE.

Kurt Warner enjoyed his best season since his years in St Louis.  He had 11 starts, 3,417 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 17 picks, and an 89.8 QB rating.  He is expected to be the backup to 3rd year QB Matt Leinart who really struggled at the beginning of the season before having his 2007 campaign cut short by a collarbone injury.  Leinart has reportedly looked very strong this offseason, but Warner is still taking snaps with the first team.  If he struggles the coaching staff will not hesitate to go with Warner.

Edge James rebounded slightly in 2007, thanks to a coaching staff that focused on the run slightly more than Denny Green.  His 1,222 rushing yards were 7th in the NFL and he improved his yards per carry from 3.4 to 3.8, which is still not great.  That signing has not produced the results many thought it would.  The Cardinals have no one else that ran the ball and finished 29th in rushing yards gained.

The Cardinals front seven did a nice job of stopping the run, finishing 9th in the NFL.   They also finished 13th in sacks with 36.  Losing Calvin Pace to the Jets was a significant loss, but the Jets drastically overpaid for his services.  Six years and 42 million dollars was too much cap space to part with. The Cardinals did not replace him with anyone in free agency or the draft. 4th year player Chike Okeafor is expected to take that spot. 

Weaknesses: Ken Whisenhunt was an assistant for the Steelers on teams that had very strong defenses.  That is what he has been brought in to fix.  He needs to install toughness on offense and rebuild a bad defense.  The Cardinals have had a good enough passing offense to make the playoffs the last few years. The main problem on defense was stopping the pass.  They finished 28th in pass yards allowed and 25th in touchdown passes allowed.

That was the main motivation for adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round of the draft.  The Cardinals could have used a back to split carries with Edge, but the Cardinals could not pass on the opportunity to add secondary help.  He has big play potential and is expected to be the nickel back as a rookie.  Roderick Hood and Eric Green are expected to remain the starters.  Adrian Wilson is a solid safety and Antrel Rolle will be the other safety this year.  The secondary should be improved in 2008.

The other area the Cardinals wanted to improve on was the pass rush.  While 36 sacks ranked 12th it was also 17 sacks less than the league leading NY Giants.  The Cardinals were far from an elite pass rushing group last season.  Darnell Dockett made the Pro Bowl with his 9 sacks at defensive tackle spot.  The Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell and Kenny Iwebema to give them more depth at defensive end and more of a pass rush. 

Finally, the offensive line still needs some work.  James is still an effective runner, but doesn’t get the same lanes he did in Indy.  Brown and Gandy are good at tackle, but the Cardinals have little depth behind those two.  The interior of the offensive line is improved from the Denny Green days, but still needs work.

Prediction:  This is my surprise division winner pick in 2008.  The Cardinals have been a trendy wildcard pick the last couple seasons only to disappoint.  I picked them to finish 4th last season, which turned out to be an underestimate.  I thought it would take a couple years to recover from the Denny Green era.  There are good things going on in Arizona and few people realize the Cardinals were two bad 49er losses away from earning a wildcard.  The Cardinals beat the Steelers, Seahawks, and Browns last season.  This was anything but a pushover.

I love the schedule to start the season.  1) @ San Fran, 2) Miami, 3) Washington, 4) New York Jets, and 5) Buffalo gives them an excellent chance to start 4-1.  They need to start hot because they close the season with 15) Minnesota, 16) @ New England, and 17) Seattle.  That isn’t going to be an easy stretch to make up ground.

Arizona had a very nice draft and would be a bigger favorite to me if they had their quarterback situation figured out.  Warner is a question mark at this point in his career and Leinart needs to break out this year.  If he has another year like he did last year he is going to earn the bust label.  I expect him to rebound.  I think Arizona made a good hire in Whisenhunt and the Cardinals are on the way up.  I think Seattle’s window has started to close.  This is the year I think the Cardinals finally put it together and win the NFC West behind a potent offense and a favorable schedule.

Arizona Cardinals’ Record: 9-7 – NFC West Divisional Champion; NFC #4 Seed

2)            Seattle Seahawks

07 Record: 10-6

Points Scored: 393 (9th)

Points Allowed: 291 (6th)

Playoff Result: Lost NFC Divisional Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 122-134 (.477) (19th in NFL) 

Strengths:  The strength of this team is their defense.  That is important, because no other team has a defense with as much talent as the Seahawks in the NFC West.  The Seahawks recorded the 4th most sacks in the NFL with 45.  That was in large part to Patrick Kearny and his All Pro 14.5 sack season.  The defensive line did an excellent job of putting pressure on the quarterback.

What they need to improve on is stopping the run.  They ranked 12th in rush yards allowed and 27th in rush touchdowns allowed.  That was really the defense’s only weakness in 2007.  This is a very fast front 7, which creates the pressure, but is a little on the light side to stop the run.  The Green Bay Packers exposed the Seahawks for that weakness in the divisional round.  Ryan Grant ran right through that defense for the tune of 201 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.

Lofa Tatupu has emerged as one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL.  He was an All Pro selection last season.  Julian Peterson was selected to the Pro Bowl at the outside linebacker spot.  These two are extremely fast and make plays all over the field.

In the secondary Marcus Trufant had a Pro Bowl year with 7 picks.  He is emerging as one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks.  Jennings, Russell, and Grant round out a very solid secondary.

On offense, Matt Haselbeck has established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.  He had 3,966 yards passing, 28 touchdowns, 12 picks, and a 91.4 rating without the benefit of getting much help from the running game.  He is now the featured part of the Seahawks offense.

Alexander had only 716 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in 2007.  That seems incomprehensible when you consider he had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 rushing touchdowns in 2005.  Alexander was released and while it will look strange not to have him as the featured runner for the first time since his rookie season in 2000, the Seahawks abandoned him in 2007 and were already featuring Hasselbeck and the passing game.  That will make that transition easier.

Finally, you can’t talk about the Seahawks offense without mentioning Walter Jones.  He has been as solid of a tackle as the NFL has had over the last decade.  At 34 he is still going strong.  He anchors a line that is still good, but not as dominant as 2005 when they went to the Super Bowl.

Weaknesses:  This is a team with a lot of question marks on offense.  That is a surprising statement given Mike Holmgren’s reputation as an offensive mastermind.

Let’s start with the wide receivers.  Deion Branch tore his ACL in the playoff loss to the Packers on January 15, 2008.  That really puts his status in jeopardy to start the season.  Bobby Engram is 35 years old.  He had a career year with 94 catches and 1,147 yards.  He is unhappy and demanding a new deal.  DJ Hackett left for Carolina.  That leaves special team standout, but disappointing receiver Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu to battle for playing time opposite Engram.  That is huge, because of the Seahawks inability to run the ball last year.  They used a lot of 4 WR sets to spread the ball out.  Teams need a lot of WR depth to do that.  The Seahawks are not as deep as last year and that is a concern.

The Seahawks have no tight end production.  The tight end is a big component in the West Coast offense.  Marcus Pollard was released.  Will Heller is expected to be the starter.  He has 32 catches for 228 yards and 7 touchdowns, not last year but in 5 years and 58 career games.  John Carlson is a rookie 2nd round and will be expected to contribute immediately.  

Then there is the running game.  People need to stop acting like Julius Jones is the savior of the running game.  He rushed for 3.6 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in football with Dallas last year.  There is a reason the Cowboys went with Barber and let Jones walk.  He should be a good fit in this offense, but I can’t see him rushing for 1,200 plus yards and 10 touchdowns.  He is not a featured back.  Morris, Duckett, and Jones will split duties depending on the situation.  I don’t look for any of them to emerge.

Then there is the offensive line.  Walter Jones is now 34 years old.  The Seahawks have never really replaced Hutchinson since he left for Minnesota.  Mike Wahle was a good pickup at guard, but he hasn’t been the same since he left Green Bay.  He was injured in 2006 and played on a bad offense in 2007.  If he can return to his Green Bay form it will help the Seahawks regain their running form of a few years ago.

Finally, there is the special teams factor.  Josh Brown signed with St Louis and was an extremely reliable kicker.  The new kicker is no other than Olindo Mare, who was a disaster in New Orleans.  He was 10 for 17 on field goals and New Orleans plays in a lot of nice weather sites, including their dome.  How is he going to respond kicking in the elements.  When you add those things all together I think the offense is going to take a significant step back in 2008.  I think Mare could cost them a couple games that Brown would have won.

Prediction:  This is supposed to be Mike Holmgren’s last season with the Seahawks before he calls it quits on what has been a legendary career.  He has coached in 3 Super Bowls, winning it all in Super Bowl XXXI.  He coached all time great Joe Montana and Hall of Famer Steve Young as a coordinator in San Fran.  He developed one of the all time great quarterbacks in Brett Favre as the Packer’s Head Coach.  He has gone to a Super Bowl in Seattle developing Hasselbeck to go along with Alexander and a strong running game.  His coaching tree speaks for itself.  The number of ex Holmgren assistants coaching around the NFL is long and prominent.  If he actually decides to hang it up it will have been a fantastic career, one that should see him inducted into Canton, Ohio.

It would seem logical to pick the Hawks to win the division in his last year and ride out into the sunset.  I just don’t like the Seahawks team this season as much as in years past.  I think they have gotten a little bit older.  I don’t think they have a lot of good answers at wide receiver.  I’m not a fan of their running game.  I’m not going to pick an offense to do well, just because they have a head coach and quarterback with solid reputations.  There are a lot of other things that go into having a good offense.

Still, the Seahawks are going to score points.  This is not one of the 10 worst offenses in the NFL.  It isn’t even the worst offense in the division.  However in order for the defense to get those sacks and not give up a lot of rushing yards, Seattle needs their offense to dominate the action.  I’m not sure they can do that in 2008 like they did last season.

The Seahawks have been the class of this division since 2003.  However, there are moments when you look back and see the door slam shut on a teams run.  That’s what I think we saw in that Green Bay game.  The Seahawks had a 14-0 lead in that game and proceed to get stomped.  That game was disturbing on so many levels.  It wasn’t that they lost; it was how they lost.  They were manhandled on both sides of the ball.  They have progressively gone in the wrong direction since 2005.  A very weak schedule and bad division probably saved them in 2007.

I think they have a pretty tough stretch in the middle of the season.  They play 9) Philadelphia, 10) @ Miami, 11) Arizona, 12) Washington, 13) @ Dallas, and 14) New England.  They also have games against 6) Green Bay and 7) @ Tampa Bay, which will not be as good as last year, but still tough.

The Seahawks will still win their share of games.  They will still be tough at home.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they were able to put together a division winner.  The NFC West isn’t exactly the toughest division right now.  I just think it is someone else’s time.  The Cardinals should be able to maneuver the middle of the season with greater ease than the Seahawks and build a cushion heading into their tough stretch to close the season.  While the Cardinals will not run away with the division, I predict they will sneak by the Seahawks, who will still be tough, but not as tough as in years past.

Seattle Seahawks’ Record: 8-8 – NFC West 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3)            St Louis Rams

07 Record: 3-13

Points Scored: 263 (28th)

Points Allowed: 438 (31st)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 125-131 (.488) (17th in NFL)

Strengths:  When you start the season 0-8, finish with the 2nd worst scoring defense and the 5th worst scoring offense there aren’t a lot of things to hang your hat on.  However, the Rams were probably hit by injuries worse than any team in the NFL.  They had massive casualties on the offensive line, including future Hall of Fame tackle Orlando Pace, who was lost for the season in the opener.  He missed 8 games in 2006 and it remains to be seen if he can still stay healthy an entire season.

Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger missed 4 starts each.  Torry Holt was not the same Torry Holt as a couple years ago due to his knee condition.  Doctors feel he will be able to play still, but fear it will be a chronic problem.  If those three guys aren’t healthy the whole season the Rams can’t win.

Issac Bruce is no longer with the team, having moved to San Francisco.  He was a great receiver for many years, but Holt has been the go to guy in recent years.  They still have Bennett and they drafted Donnie Avery in the second round.  Randy McMichael needs to regain his Dolphin form from a few seasons ago.

Josh Brown was a nice addition.  He is a solid kicker that is an upgrade over Wilkins and hurts a division rival at the same time.

The bottom line is that the 28th ranking in scoring offense from last season is deceiving.  When this offense is healthy it is extremely dangerous.  Bulger had 4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 8 picks in 2006.  Steven Jackson had 2,334 rushing and receiving yards and scored 16 touchdowns in 2006.  Holt had 1,188 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2006.  He had almost identical numbers in 2007, but had 3 fewer touchdowns catches.  These are three of the premier offensive players in the NFL.  When they are healthy and at full strength they can put up points in bunches.  Given the state of their defense that will be a must if they want to win in 2008.

Weaknesses:  This defense has all kinds of problems.  They struggled to stop the pass, rush the passer, and stop the run.  Their only real strength on defense was playmaking.  They ranked tied for 10th in the NFL with interceptions with 18 interceptions.  However, when you give up over 20 points in 12 of the 16 games there is going to be problems winning games.  The defense was a joke in December giving up 33 points to Green Bay, 41 to Pittsburgh, and 48 to Arizona.  No defense was playing as bad as the Rams at the end of the season.

That was the main reason for selecting Chris Long with the second pick in the draft. Defenses are built from the defensive line out and the Rams need to overhaul that unit.  Adam Carriker can then move to defensive tackle.  With Leonard Little, James Hall, and Chris Long rushing from the ends the Rams are hoping they can put more pressure on the quarterback.  They also added Justin King in the 4th round to help in the secondary.  He was an up and down corner at Penn State.  He should be a nickel and dime package guy as a rookie.

However, other than Long they really haven’t made a lot of changes to a defense that was downright awful in 2007. I still see St Louis as one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.

The other area of concern was the offensive line.  John Greco was drafted in the 3rd round to provide depth.  They really didn’t add anyone other than him there either.  If they suffer injuries like they did last year they will struggle to maximize their skill position talent.

Finally, Trent Green was an interesting signing.  They went from a bad backup in Gus Frerotte to a guy that a few years ago was among the better QBs in the league.  However, they aren’t getting the guy that threw for over 4,500 yards in 2004.  They are getting a guy that is a concussion away from retirement.  If Bulger misses a lot of time the Rams do not stand a good chance to compete in most games.  I don’t think Green can hold up for more than a game or two.

Prediction: This is a team that looked to be headed in the right direction with Scott Linehan finishing 8-8 in his first year.  I thought they would win the NFC West last season.  This defense has absolutely collapsed and the Rams are in need of a major overhaul.

I thought this team really struck out in the draft.  I like Chris Long and think he will be a fantastic player.  He may be the only player on this roster in three years from now.  Avery and King were real reaches in my opinion.

The Rams will do better in 2008, just because their skill position players should stay healthy and they have the offense to score.   That still means 10 losses and another top 10 pick in 2008.

St Louis Rams’ Record:  6-10 – NFC West 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4)            San Francisco 49ers

07 Record: 5-11

Points Scored: 219 (32nd)

Points Allowed: 364 (20th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 124-132 (.484) (18th in NFL)

Strengths:  Patrick Willis had as good of a rookie year as I can remember from a defensive rookie.  He had 174 tackles, including back-to-back 18 tackle games against Arizona and Carolina and a 20-tackle game against Tampa Bay.  Rarely is a rookie able to come into the NFL in his first year and put up those kinds of numbers.  When you consider how little help he had around him it was a very impressive start to what I expect will be a great career.

The 49ers have some nice pieces on defense.  I already mentioned Willis.  He is a player the defense can build around.  Kentwan Balmer was a nice first round pick that should give them help at defensive tackle.  Manny Lawson is a young star in the making that was limited to 2 games last season.  If he can come back healthy that will help the defense.  Nate Clements gives them a corner to build the secondary around and Michael Lewis is a good safety.   Walt Harris gives them a good second corner.

The defense struggled to stop people, because they got no help from the offense.  Turnovers and a lack of yardage put the 49ers defense against their backs in 2007.  This defense rarely played with a big lead.  While this defense will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens they need a better offense to realize their full potential.

On offense, Frank Gore took a step back in 2007 with injuries.  He had 1,102 yards and 5 touchdowns.  They were hoping for the 1,695 and 8 touchdowns he gave them in 2006.  With the passing game the 49ers have in place they will need him to get back to his 2006 numbers if they want to win more than 5 games in 2008.  DeShaun Foster was a very good signing that should give them good depth at the running back position.

Mike Martz has been brought in to fix the offense.  Issac Bruce was a good signing as he is familiar with the system and can help mentor the younger guys.  Vernon Davis has all the tools to be an All-Pro Tight End.  It will be interesting to see how Martz utilizes his talent, given his history of not using tight ends in his pass heavy offensive scheme.

Weaknesses:  This was not the worst offense I ever saw.  The 2006 Oakland Raiders and their 168 points scored take that honor.  49er fans will remind me their 2005 product may have been worse than 2007.  But this offense was so bad on so many levels.  The offense scored more than 20 points on just two occasions (21 against Tampa Bay and 37 against Arizona).  When you consider Tampa played their backups most of that game you can understand why this team struggled to win games in 2007.  Their offensive production was horrific.

In my opinion Alex Smith is a major bust.  Part of that is because he plays in a new offensive system every year.  Part of the reason is that he plays so bad that he helps the offensive coordinator get fired every year.  To label a guy a bust at 24 years old may seem premature to some people.  However, he is entering his 4th year.  There gets to be a point where a guy is no longer a young player, but rather just a bad player.  He has a career 63.5 QB rating in 30 career starts.   He had 2 touchdown throws in 7 starts in 2007.  The game appears to be played at a speed that is too fast for him at a time when it should have already slowed down.  It will be interesting to see if the 49ers go with Shaun Hill or if they give Alex Smith the entire season to show if he has what it takes to play in this league.

The 49ers don’t have much in the way of targets.  Bruce is an upgrade, but his best days are clearly behind him.  Bryant Johnson has been a 3rd receiver the majority of his career.  It remains to be seen if he can carry an offense.   Battle and Lelie are not players that have proven they can contribute on offense.  This is a very thin receiving core, which does not allow Martz to run the offense he would like to run.

Prediction: There just aren’t a lot of good things to say about this team right now.  It amazes me that a team that was so successful in the 80s and 90s has fallen on such hard times.  Even if Joe Montana and Steve Young seems like ages ago, Jeff Garcia and TO does not.  The 49ers went 22-10 in 2001 and 2002.  They made the playoffs both season.  Since then 7-9 is the best they have done.

Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator that just hasn’t been able to get an offense in place.  Part of that is Alex Smith.  That was the quarterback the 49ers drafted in his rookie campaign.  Whether it is Nolan’s fault that Smith hasn’t developed or Smith’s fault that Nolan’s offenses can’t score is an interesting debate.  It is most likely a little of both.  The 49ers have finished last in the NFL in yards gained 2 out of his 3 years, so it couldn’t be much worse than it is right now.  This team has very little offensive firepower.

I think Gore and the defense give them a chance to win a few games.  I like the fact they play the AFC East and the Rams twice.  That gives them a chance to be competitive in some of their games.  The bottom line though is that you need offense to win in the NFL and the 49ers just don’t have enough of it to compete week in and week out.  Their defense is solid, but not like the 2005 Bears where it can carry a nonexistent offense.  I look for more of the same in 2008.  I think the 49ers finish 4-12, end the Mike Nolan era, and look forward to their next rebuilding project.

San Francisco 49ers’ Record:  4-12 – NFC West 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team. 

Donovan McNabb has reopened a debate that has been in the NFL forefront for sometime.  McNabb was interviewed by James Brown of HBO Sports and the topic came up as to whether Black NFL Quarterbacks are treated differently than White NFL Quarterbacks.  To summarize his interview, McNabb stated that black NFL quarterbacks face more pressure, scrutiny and criticism than their white counterparts.

I thought it would be interesting to look at this argument statistically and see whether his claims had any merit.  This is the list of the top 5 white quarterbacks playing in 2006:  Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger, and Drew Brees.   I understand that Brett Favre would be on the list if we were looking at this historically.  I also understand Phillip Rivers was in the Pro Bowl and Tom Brady was not.  However, if you were starting a franchise today, these would be the top 5 white quarterbacks that most NFL general managers would have on the top of their list. 

In 2006, the top 5 starting black quarterbacks would be as follows:  Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Vince Young, Steve McNair, and David Garrard.  McNabb did not start the whole year due to injury and Garrard shared time with Byran Leftwich.  To make things fair, I averaged the statistics out based on the number of games played:  Here is what I came up with:

Manning, Brady, Palmer, Bulger, Brees – The five quarterbacks played in an average of 16 games.  They averaged passing for 4,136 yards, 26.6 touchdowns, 10.6 interceptions for the 2006 season.  This comes to an average of 258.5 yards per game, 1.7 touchdown passes, and 0.7 picks per contest.  They combined for an average QB rating of 94.4.  Their teams combined for a record of 50-30 or an average of 10 wins on the 2006 season.  Three of them reached the playoffs.  Those three started in the conference championship games.  Manning went on to win the Super Bowl. 

McNabb, Vick, Young, McNair, Garrard – The five quarterbacks played in 68 out of 80 games.  They averaged passing for 2,421 yards, 15.2 touchdowns, and 10.6 interceptions.  This comes to an average of 178.0 yards per game, 1.1 touchdowns passes, and 0.8 picks per contest.   They combined for an average QB rating of 80.2.  Their teams combined for a record of 9.2 wins, which is just slightly below the star white QBs.  Two of them reached the playoffs, although McNabb was on IR for the playoff run.  McNair lost his first playoff game to Manning’s Colts. 

One thing to keep in mind is that Michael Vick on his own out produced the 5 white QBs in rushing yards and touchdowns.  Young probably did the same.  However, the quarterback position has traditionally been evaluated on the QBs ability to pass the football.   Steve Young was a great scrambler too.  He didn’t start getting his just due until his passing numbers went off the charts.   

The only quarterback on the black quarterback list that rivals the white quarterbacks as a passer are McNair and McNabb.  McNair put up insane numbers while in college.  While he has won an MVP, he has never put up gaudy passing numbers in the pros.  McNabb is very similar to McNair, except he did have one season where he put up gaudy numbers, which was 2004.  The rest of his career he has been a low 3,000 yard passer around 20 touchdown passes. 

It is unfair to judge the black quarterback’s treatment if you are going to compare that treatment to a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, etc.  The reason this is unfair is that their black counterparts are not putting up passing numbers that are even in the realm of equivalence. If there were currently a black quarterback that was throwing for those numbers on a consistent basis, we could compare the treatment.  For instance, if Warren Moon were playing today, we would have a quarterback that was in the same statistical area.  However, because there is currently not a quarterback that is throwing for 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 picks, we are left to compare apples and oranges.

The bottom line is that quarterbacks are judged on two things.  First, and foremost, it is how they throw the ball.  Do they throw for a lot of yards?  Do they score a lot of touchdowns?  Do they throw very few interceptions?  However, doing that alone will not keep you employed.  Ask Jeff George.  Secondly, you not only have to win, but you have to be perceived as the reason your team won.  You have to matter.  That is why Troy Aikman was able to come back in 1994 after throwing 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 1993.  On the other hand, Trent Dilfer, who threw 12 touchdowns and 11 picks in 9 games in 2001 was asked to find a new team to sign his paychecks.  Both won the Super Bowl.  However, Aikman was considered a catalyst for those Super Bowls, where as Dilfer was considered a liability.   

A perfect present day example would be Rex Grossman.  He led his team to the Super Bowl, or followed them there, depending on your perspective.  His team was 13-3, and the number one team in the NFC.  His Bears scored the 2nd most points of any team in the NFL.  He threw for 3193 yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 picks, and had a QB rating of 73.9.  I live in Chicago.  I hear everyday how the Bears need a new QB.  The perception is that the Bears are a QB away from winning the Super Bowl.  The perception is that the Bears are winning despite Grossman, not because of him.  I believe that Rex Grossman is currently the most scrutinized quarterback in the NFL. 

A close second would be Eli Manning.  Not only does he quarterback in New York, but his older brother is arguably the best QB in the game.  He threw for 3,244 yards, 24 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 77.0.  However, he is not his brother.  His Giants started the season 6-2, before finishing 8-8.  They made the playoffs and lost their first round game.  It was widely accepted that if he does deliver a 3,500 yard, 25 touchdown, 15 interception season, with a QB rating in the mid 80s that results in his team making the playoffs; that the Giants would be looking to bring in competition for his job.  The only reason he is not under fire for the Giants 0-2 start is because he has played well and the defense has given up 80 points.  Check back next week for his status. 

Quarterback is the most unfair position to play in sports.  Quarterbacks get way to much credit when the team wins.  The Quarterback gets way to much blame when the team loses.  Quarterback is known as a what have you done lately position.  They can be throwing parades in your honor one day, and throwing you out of town the next.  It is not unprecedented that successful quarterbacks have lost their job rather quickly. 

In 1989 Joe Montana won the League and Super Bowl MVP.  He followed that up with a 14-2 record and a loss in the Championship Game in 1990.  Due to the injury he suffered in that Championship Game, he missed the 1991 season and almost all of the 1992 season.  Despite having won 4 Super Bowls in San Francisco and being widely considered the best QB to ever play the game, the 49ers shipped him to Kansas City for the 1993 season, because they felt Steve Young gave them the best chance to win in 1993.  This was the same Steve Young that had never won a Super Bowl as a starter and was the pre 2006 Peyton Manning of his day, the great QB that couldn’t win the big game.  

Kurt Warner won a Super Bowl in 1999.  He also won the regular season and Super Bowl MVP.  In 2001, he duplicated that regular season MVP performance and lost the Super Bowl.  His offense finished #1 in both scoring and yardage in 1999, 2000, and 2001.  In 2002 he was injured and looked shaky.  By 2003 Marc Bulger had the job in hand.  In 2004, Warner was playing for the Giants. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I am not so naïve that I believe that professional sports is a 100% racist free world.   There is still racism in our society.  Professional sports is part of our society.  Therefore, there is no reason to believe that racism is not present in professional sports.  However, this notion that black quarterbacks have to do something extra to keep their job is, in my opinion, preposterous. 

I don’t know how any quarterback keeps his job.  The Favres, Mannings, and Bradys amaze me with their ability to keep their jobs year after year.  Most owners are not going to hang on to white quarterbacks that can’t produce.  Most of the media is not going to baby white quarterbacks.   The majority of the people associated with the NFL are about winning today.  Not tomorrow and not yesterday. 

What do Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell have in common?  They are all black quarterbacks that were top 5 picks in the draft since 1999, the year Donovan McNabb was selected with the second overall pick.  In comparison, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Tim Couch were the white QBs that shared that honor. 

That means seven white quarterbacks compared to five black quarterbacks taken in the first five picks of the first round since Donovan McNabb was drafted.  Five of the white quarterbacks are starters, compared to two for the black quarterbacks.  If Michael Vick could have avoided legal problems, Joey Harrington wouldn’t be a starter and it would be four to three.  If JaMarcus Russell had not held out the entire preseason, it might have even been a tie. 

Furthermore, JaMarcus Russell, the star black quarterback in this years draft was picked number one, while his white counterpart, Brady Quinn dropped to the end of the first round.  This isn’t the league that Warren Moon was faced with in the late 1970’s.  If a black quarterback proves that he is NFL capable in college, not only will he be drafted, he will be drafted very high.  While some will point to Heisman winner Troy Smith dropping to the 5th round this year, I will point to Eric Crouch, a Heisman winner that was not drafted by the Rams to play QB, but Wide Receiver. If the NFL is putting more pressure, scrutiny and criticism on black quarterbacks than their white counterparts, it sure isn’t showing in the war room on draft day. 

I do not know Donovan McNabb personally.  The impression that I get from Donovan McNabb is that he has a chip on his shoulder.  I think he has that chip on his shoulder because he isn’t held in the same esteem as the other top quarterbacks in the game, something he feels he has earned.  What he is forgetting is that even the league’s elite face tough scrutiny. 

Ask Manning what it is like to be the best QB in the game.  I’m sure he wouldn’t say free from criticism and doubt.  Manning has won 2 League MVPs and threw for 49 touchdowns in a season.  Until last season that wasn’t good enough, because he was the Pro Bowl QB that couldn’t win the “big game.”  He sort of silenced those critics by winning the Super Bowl MVP.  However, the criticism was that while he won the Super Bowl, the defense and running game played too big of a role in delivering that Super Bowl.  He didn’t play well enough to take enough credit for the Colts run.  Therefore he still isn’t the big game QB that he should be.  Talk about tough and unfair criticism. 

Carson Palmer is not being criticized yet, because he has only been starting for 3 years.  Bulger is entering his 5th season as the opening day starter.  Brees is in his second year with New Orleans and is entering his 6th season as a starter.   Furthermore, all three of those teams have horrible defenses that are considered the part of the team that is holding the franchise back.   However, if postseason success eludes these young quarterbacks, they too will soon be labeled as disappointments.  If Brees doesn’t turn around this season, he will be the first to hear those criticisms. 

McNabb has been a starter since the 2000 season.  To his credit, he throws very few interceptions.  McNabb is the second least intercepted quarterback per pass attempt in NFL history, behind only Neil O'Donnell.  McNabb's career ratio is 1 interception per every 45.26 pass attempts.  This leads to his very respectable career QB rating of 85.2.  He makes a lot of exciting plays and played in four consecutive championship games from 2001-2004.  He went to the Super Bowl 2004.  In his defense, other than 2004, he has never had a game changing wide receiver. 

However, McNabb has a lot of negative points too.  To his detriment, he has a 58.1% career completion percentage.  He has only thrown over 3500 yards once.  He has only thrown over 20 touchdowns three times.  Furthermore, while other than TO, he has never played with a “game changing” wide receiver, he has played with a defense that finished in the top five in scoring defense 4 times, and was 7th in 2003.  Bulger, Brees, and Palmer have had the luxury exactly 0 times combined. 

When Donovan McNabb played well, he was given his just due.  His successful play led to many endorsements, not only for him, but his mother.  His most notable commercial was the Chunky Soup Commercials.  He also graced the cover of the 2006 John Madden Football game.  In 2004, he was widely considered the 3rd best QB in the game, behind Manning and Brady.  Had he maintained those numbers, he would still be receiving the same compliments he did in 2004.  However, while Brady and Manning have maintained their stats and team success, Donovan has not.  Trust me, if Peyton Manning plays 10 games the next 2 seasons and doesn’t break 20 touchdown passes or 3,500 yards, the cries for a replacement will be heard loud and clear. 

McNabb is now over 30.  While he has been a successful quarterback, he is by no means a Hall of Fame Quarterback.  He has not won a Super Bowl.  He has played 10 games or less 3 of the last 5 seasons, and finished the season on IR the last 2 seasons.  His mobility looks diminished; he is throwing the ball for a 54% completion percentage.  His team has scored one touchdown in over 20 offensive possessions this season.  I think it is a fair question for the media, fans, and the franchise to ask if his best days are behind him and if the Eagles would be better served to move in a different direction.   I think there are legitimate arguments on both sides of the issue.  If Donovan McNabb were white, we would be having the exact same conversation. 

Donovan needs to stop worrying about how people view his legacy, and whether that view is just.  What is most important is how Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles view his current performance.  He needs to get his knee right and start winning some football games.  He needs to start playing like he did in 2004 and the beginning of last season.  This isn’t happening because the League, the Media, and the Fans want to see one less quarterback starting in the NFL.  This isn’t about diminishing what he did in 2004.  This is about whether Donovan McNabb has what it takes to be an effective quarterback in 2007. 

For his sake, he better figure it out fairly quickly.  If the Eagles miss the playoffs, he, like black and white quarterbacks that have been injured or unproductive for multiple years before him, will be looking for new employment in 2008.  Who knows, maybe he will replace Rex Grossman.  Then we can listen to Rex Grossman complain about the raw deal he received in Chicago.  Wouldn’t that be an ironic twist? 

As I finish my preview of the NFC, I turn to maybe the most wide-open division in the NFC, which is the NFC West.  While none of the teams in this division were powerhouses last season, the Rams and Seahawks have been the consistently good teams in the division, and the 49ers and Cardinals are quickly improving.  I think you could make a case that any of the teams could finish first and that any of the teams could finish last.  It will be interesting to see how fans defend their teams and destroy their opponents.  Here is how I see the NFC West playing out this season.  

 
St Louis Rams

Strengths:  The strength of this team is the same as it has been since 1999.  While the Rams may not have most of the pieces from the Greatest Show on Turf, they still have a wide-open offense.  The Rams have finished in the top 10 in yards every year since 1999.  They have finished in the top 12 in points scored six out of the last eight seasons.  You cold argue that the Rams have the best quarterback, running back, and receiver combination in the entire NFL.  Bulger, Jackson, and Holt are about as good as it gets.  The Colts and Bengals are probably the only teams that could make an argument that their #### is better.  The Rams are definitely in the conversation.  Bulger is coming off a season in which he threw for over 4000 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just 8 picks.  Jackson is coming off a season in which he had over 1500 yards rushing, over 800 yards receiving, and 16 total touchdowns.  He is entering his fourth season, and should be among the top 3 or 4 running backs next season.  Torry Holt had his typical 90 catch, 1000-yard, 10-touchdown season.  Linehan has done an excellent job of keeping the explosiveness in the offense that Martz loved, while getting back to the running game that  Vermeil embraced.  With the additions of Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael, and draft pick Brian Leonard, the Rams should be poised to put even more points on the board this season.    

Weaknesses:  The main weakness is still the defense.  While the Rams have been consistently good on offense, they have been just as consistently bad on defense.  Since 2002, the Rams have never been better than 16th, in total yards or points allowed.  That means this defense has been in the bottom half of the league every year in that time frame.  Its no surprise that the only year they have had a great record was 2003.  The defense had its highest ranking in the last 4 seasons, ranking 17th in both yards allowed and points allowed.  However, the offense also had a great ranking of 3rd in points scored.  The Rams have done a couple things to address their defensive problems.  They drafted Adam Carriker with the 13th pick.  He should upgrade the defensive line immediately.  Keith Jackson and Jonathan Wade add depth.  Little, Hall, and Weatherspoon are good returning players.  The front seven has a lot less questions than the secondary.  

Prediction:   This is probably the division I am the most nervous about picking.  It is a wide-open division.  The Rams are basically the NFC's version of the Cincinnati Bengals.  No, the whole team did not get arrested this offseason.  You have an unbelievable team on the offensive side of the ball, some good players on defense, but lots of holes and question marks on that side of the ball.  The Rams don't need the 85 Bears defense to win this division.  They just need to keep the score close so that the offense can keep people off balanced.  With Jackson controlling the ground, Bulger, Holt, Bruce, and others will be able to move the ball through the air. I like this offense to challenge New Orleans for the highest scoring offense in the NFC.  The Rams have some very tough games.  They travel to New Orleans, Cincinnati, and Baltimore.  They have games against Carolina, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh at home.  If Martz were still the coach, I would have no faith in the defense improving.   Linehan will at least assist the defense by running the ball every now and then.  I look for the Rams to take a highly contested division, based on the fact that they have the best offense in the division, and that other than San Fran, no one appears to have a defense capable of stopping them. Furthermore, while the 49ers signed some nice pieces this offseason, it remains to be seen what that translates to on the field.   

Record:  10-6, NFC West Division Title, NFC #4 seed

Seattle Seahawks

Strengths:  The Seahawks probably have the best balance in the division.  They were 14th in points scored and 19th in points allowed.  Last season is relatively hard to evaluate.  Hasselbeck and Alexander missed a lot of time last season.  Despite that, the Seahawks still finished 9-7 and won the division.  Alexander is still one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL.  Walter Jones is still an elite left tackle.  Grant and Kerney are nice additions to the defense.  Peterson and Tatupa are excellent linebackers.  Other than Alexander and Jones, the Seahawks don't have a lot of big names and flashy players.  They just have a lot of high quality players that play hard and make plays.           

Weaknesses:  Usually the draft will indicate where a team was weak the previous season.  The Seahawks drafted 4 defensive players with their first five selections.  However, the position that concerns me the most is wide receiver.  Jackson was a big loss.  He had 10 touchdown catches last season.  I know people will point to the fact that he was injured a lot, and that they have a lot of talent to replace him.  Deion branch has never had a 1,000 yard season.  Granted, he had 998 yards in 2005, but his next best total is 803.  His best season was 5 touchdown catches.  I have been hearing for the last 3 years that he is ready to have a breakout season.  I haven't seen it yet.  Burleson has 520 yards and 3 touchdowns in 28 games with Seattle.  He has been a major bust.  Hackett and Engram have their moments.  I just think this is a position of weakness.  While they have a lot of quality guys, they don’t have that dominant number one receiver.  Until Branch and Burleson show me they can catch 80 balls for 1200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns, I'm not going to be impressed with them.  Other than that, I like the defense, I like the offensive line, and quarterback positions.  They may not have one particular phase that excites you like the Ravens and Bears Defense, the Colts Offense, or the Bears Special Teams.  However there is no position where you feel they are overmatched.   

Prediction:  This is probably Seattle's last stand in the NFC West.  This team has made the playoffs for four consecutive years.  They made the Super Bowl in 2005.  They have won the division 3 years in a row.  In today’s NFL, you usually have about a 5-year window.  That said, Alexander turns 30 this year and Walter Jones is 33 years old. As they start to get older and the Cardinals and 49ers youth gains experience, you will probably see a changing of the guard.  I think the Seahawks had a better team than their record indicated last season.  Injuries to Alexander and Haselbeck prevented the team from reaching their full potential.  That said, they lost 3 of 4 games to divisional rivals Arizona and San Fran.  They also lost 3 of their last 4 games to end the season, with Alexander and Hasselbeck present.  They needed a botched Tony Romo snap to escape Seattle with their playoff lives.  Then they lost a heartbreaker at Chicago to the NFC's best team.  They had better get off to a fast start, because after week 10, the schedule gets brutal.  They get San Fran, Chicago, Arizona, and Baltimore at home and St Louis, Philly, Carolina, and Atlanta on the road.  There are 5 very losable games in there.  I think this team has one last run in it before the guard in the NFC West changes.  However, if they are ####ed up like they were last year, the Cardinals and 49ers are in a much better position to pass them.  

Record: 9-7, 2nd NFC West, NFC #5 seed 

San Francisco 49ers 

Strengths:  This is a very hard team to evaluate, because they had one of the busiest offseasons in the NFL.  Last season is not very relevant with the wholesale changes they have made.  The strength of this team was their running game last season.  The 49ers ranked 6th in rushing, behind Frank Gore, who had a breakout season.  Gore rushed for 1695 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Making that all the more impressive was the fact they he played with the 29th ranked passing offense.  Helping maters, the 49ers drafted Joe Staley in the 1st round to help bolster the offensive line.  The defense, which ranked last in points allowed and 26th in yards allowed, has gone over a major overhaul.  The 49ers added Nate Clements and Michael Lewis to the secondary.  They drafted Patrick Willis in the first round, a player many consider a candidate for defensive rookie of the year.  They added depth with 5 draft picks between round 3 and 5 on defense, to go along with some lesser names they signed in free agency.  If the 49ers finish last in points allowed again, it isn't going to be because they went in with the same group as last season. 
 
Weaknesses:  The main weakness for this team was the passing game.  Despite finishing 6th in rushing, the 49ers offense finished 29th in pass yards and 24th in points.  Alex Smith improved a great deal from his rookie year to his second year.  On the other hand, he had nowhere to go but up.  After throwing 1 touchdown and 11 interceptions in his rookie campaign, Alex Smith made great strides.  He rose his completion percentage from 50.9 % to 58.1 %, raised his touchdowns to 16, and had 16 interceptions.  He also passed for 2890 yards.   The problem is that it was a tale of two seasons for Alex Smith.  In the first 6 games he had 8 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and was passing for 214 yards per game.  At that pace, he would have thrown for 3400 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.  The last 10 games, he threw for only 8 touchdowns, had 12 interceptions, and threw for over 200 yards in only one game, which was 201 yards in a loss to the Packers.  The big question for this season is whether he will revert back into the quarterback that played the first 6 games of the season or will he continue to be the quarterback that struggled the last 10 games of the season.  The 49ers front office did everything they could to help him.  The drafted a tackle in the first round.  They signed Darrell Jackson to improve the receiving core.  Ashlie Lelie was signed as well, but reports out of San Francisco have him injured and limping around the locker room already.  He has been a 1st round bust to date.  Brandon Williams, Marcus Maxwell, and Jason Hill will probably be competing to play opposite of Darrell Jackson.  Also remember that last years 6th choice Vernon Davis is still in the mix at tight end. 

Prediction:  This is a very tough team to predict for this season.  They were 7-9 last season, but have made so many changes to their team, that there is really no body of work to base a prediction off of.  The defense has to improve.  Even though I believe that Clements was overpaid, he will bolster the secondary.  I just can't see this defense giving up as many points as they did last season.  My hesitancy in picking this team to take the next step lies with Alex Smith.  This passing offense was brutal last season.  While he was the first pick in the draft, he is now entering his 3rd year.  It is still early in his career, but what he has shown me is that he is a younger Trent Dilfer.  He should evolve into a quarterback capable of managing a team, but not capable of being a franchise quarterback that you can build around for years to come.  If he doesn't break out this season, it probably isn't going to happen.  Most quarterbacks break out by their 3rd season.  I think people’s predictions for the 49ers will depend on what you think of Alex Smith.  If you think Alex Smith is the real deal, then this is easily a playoff team.  If you think he is a marginal quarterback, you aren't going to pick them to improve on the win total.  Fans of the team will point to the draft and free agency.  I will point to the Washington Redskins.  Spending money does not equal playoffs.  That team struggled last season, because the couldn't find consistency in the passing game.  Uninformed people will blame it on the Portis injury.  Betts had 1,000 yards and the Redskins were 4th in rushing yards.  The problem was a 21st ranked passing offense and a bad defense.  Sound familiar?  If the 49ers are going to break out this season, Alex Smith has to get over 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns.  If he doesn't, the 49ers will need to finish in the top 10 in defense to think about making the playoffs.  While I think the defense is improved, I don't think it has reached that level in one year.  I also think the division is brutal.  If the 49ers were in the NFC North, and the Packers were in the NFC West, I would pick the 49ers to finish second, and make the playoffs.  In that scenario, Alex Smith might be the best quarterback in the division.  In reality, the 49ers still are in the NFC West, and he could probably be the worst starting quarterback.  We’ll find out where this team rates pretty early.  They play the entire division before their week six bye, with Pittsburgh and Baltimore sprinkled in.  I look for the 49ers to slightly improve their record, be a more competitive and consistent team, but finish outside of the playoff race.   
    
Record:  8-8, 3rd Place NFC West, No Playoffs

Arizona Cardinals 

Strengths:  The strength of this team is a young quarterback and two young wide receivers.  Despite starting two quarterbacks last season, the Cardinals finished in the top 10 passing yards in the league.  Part of that was because the running game was 30th in the league, and part of that was because the Cardinals were behind a lot last year.  However, after starting the season 1-8, the Cardinals did finish the season 4-3.  After not having a 100-yard game prior to week 13, Edgerrin James rushed for three 100-yard games to close out the season.  Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Johnson form one of the best wide receiver trios in the league.  The Cardinals were decent at stopping the run, finishing 16th in the league.  However, their terrible pass defense led to them finishing 29th in points allowed.  Adrian Wilson however is one of the better strong safeties in the league. 

Weaknesses:  The Cardinals weakness was clear.  The Offensive Line.  This offensive line was probably the worst unit in the National Football League.  It really goes to show you how important the front 5 is to a team’s success.  The Cardinals have a proven Pro Bowl Running Back, 2 Pro Bowl caliber receivers, and a great young quarterback.  What that got them was the 30th ranked rushing offense and the 19th scoring offense.  If you can't block, you can't win.  It is no wonder the Cardinals hired Ken Wisenhunt and Russ Grimm to bring their smash mouth Pittsburgh mentality to the desert.  They also drafted Levi Brown in the first round.  The Cardinals had to come away with an impact offensive lineman.  Al Johnson also comes over to help bolster the offensive line.  While the Cardinals lost Leonard Davis, this is not a bad thing.  The Cowboys greatly overpaid for him, and he has never lived up to his lofty draft status.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Cardinals added Alan Branch to the defensive line.  If he can watch his diet and not eat his way out of the league, he should be a good addition to that side of the ball.  Ben Patrick may have been a good late round pick up at tight end.  

Prediction:  I really believe this team will make the Super Bowl within the next 5 years.  I expect them to make the playoffs next season.  They are loaded at the skill positions, which are the toughest positions to fill.  The young core can grow together and football should be very exciting in the desert.  Denny Green was a good coach, and left the offensive state of the team in much better shape than he found it.  However, he was never able to commit to the running game, and in particular the defense, something that plagued him in Minnesota.  Wisenhunt and Grimm will bring an excellent mentality to Arizona.  Arizona needs to become a more physically and mentally tough team.  Those two were winners in Pittsburgh, and that should not change in Arizona.  These two should be able to help Arizona grow in the right areas to reach the top of the mountain.  St Louis and Seattle are starting to get older at some key positions.  The sky is the limit for Arizona.  That said Arizona has some growing pains to go through.  They are still young at quarterback, the line is young, and the defense is rebuilding.  Its not that I think Arizona has a bad team, I just think the other teams are ahead of them this season.  Arizona will be a different team this year.  While the wins and losses might not reflect it, they will be a better team.  The start of the season is very tough.  They play San Fran, Seattle, St Louis, Carolina, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.   Then they get a nice month with Washington, a bye, Tampa Bay, and Detroit.  While the start may be rough, I can't imagine them starting the season 1-8.  They will have their ups and downs, but will give everyone they play a good game.  If they break out this year, I wouldn't be entirely shocked, but unfortunately for Arizona fans that have been waiting for a long time, I think they are still one year away.   

Record: 6-10, Last Place NFC West, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the NFC predictions.  To recap, I have New Orleans and Chicago as the two divisional winners earning first round byes.  I have Dallas and St. Louis rounding out the division champions and hosting first round games.  Finally, I have Seattle earning the first wildcard, with Green Bay sneaking into the playoffs as the 6 and final seed.  I will predict how they do in the playoffs after I preview the AFC.  I will try to post the AFC West sometime next week. 

I was listening to the radio this morning and heard a segment about a new book by Jayson Stark called, "The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History."  One of the topics I love to write about is comparing different players.  While I didn't really feel like researching almost 100 years of football to determine who is the most overrated and underrated of all time, I decided to do a list for active players today.  The positions I went by were Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, and Secondary.  As I've stated in previous posts, I don't rate kickers and punters, because they are not football players.   Without further delay, here is my list. 

Quarterback

Underrated:  Marc Bulger (Rams) - He has been a starter since the middle of the 2002 season.  In that time, he has one season below 63% completion.  He has 95 touchdowns against only 59 interceptions.  He has been fairly durable, having only one season in the last four where he failed to start at least 14 games.  He has three seasons of over 3,800 yards.  Yet with Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Mike Martz, and all the big names that have been there since 2002, you don't hear his name as much as you should.  Part of the problem is that the Rams went to two Super Bowls from 1999 to 2001.   Kurt Warner had two of the best regular seasons in NFL history in that time spanned.  Since Bulger took over they have won one playoff game.  However, much of that can be attributed to bad coaching, an aging roster, and a poor defense.  The quarterback is not the problem, evidenced by his two Pro Bowls.  I like the direction the team is headed, and with a solid postseason run; Marc Bulger should look to get more attention.  

Overrated:  Donovan McNabb (Eagles) - I was looking at going with Ron Mexico here, but I think everyone recognizes him as a tremendous athlete, that has never realized his full potential.  Donovan McNabb has gotten a lot of publicity for a lot of reasons.  He led the Eagles to four straight NFC championship games from 2001-2004.  He has been to a Super Bowl.  He makes exciting plays with both his arm and his legs.  He is a likeable player.  However, when you look at the numbers, I don't see it.   He has one 3,500 yard season in his career.  He threw for over thirty touchdowns one time.    He has a career completion percentage of 58.2% in a West Coast Offense.  To his credit, he has 152 career touchdown passes to just 72 interceptions, and he is an excellent rushing quarterback.  However, over the past 5 years he has managed to start over 10 games just twice, and excluding his 2004 season with TO, he hasn't thrown more than 18 touchdown passes.  His value continued to plummet with the success the team experienced under Jeff Garcia.  I think he is still a quality starting quarterback.  However, I think people tend to lump him in with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as one of the league's elite quarterbacks.  I don't think that is a reality either.   

Running Back

Underrated:  Brian Westbrook (Eagles) - Westbrook's problem is that he plays for a coach that loves to pass the ball, and running backs are judged by how many rushing yards they tally.  Brian Westbrook is one of the most dangerous combinations of running and receiving.   Since 2003, his lowest rushing and receiving total is 945 yards back in 2003.   He has been over 1,200 every year since.  Last year he totaled 1,916 rushing and receiving yards.  He is averaging about 9.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns per season since 2003.  However, he has only been to one Pro Bowl back in 2004.  I think his value to the Eagles was further demonstrated by losing McNabb last season and not missing a beat.  For as much experience as Jeff Garcia had, there is no way he could have done what he did without Brian Westbrook.  While Westbrook is not in the Tomlinson and Johnson class, there are too many running backs mentioned before him. 

Overrated:  Clinton Portis (Redskins) - This pick has nothing to do with his recent comments about what happens on Ron Mexico's estate stays on Ron Mexico's estate.   He is a talented runner.  I'm not even basing this on being hurt last season.  I just don't think he has been that effective since leaving Denver.   His first two seasons in Denver were amazing.  He rushed for almost 1550 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns per season.  He made the Pro Bowl in 2003.  Denver was so impressed they traded him to Washington for Champ Bailey.  Since then, his rushing average has dropped to just a tad over 4 yards per carry.  In 29 games with Denver, he had 29 touchdowns.  In 39 games with Washington, he has 23 touchdowns.  He hasn't broke 300 yards receiving since he left Denver.   Some would argue that injuries and coaching have caused his numbers to decline.   I would argue that he was a good running back that looked great in Denver, because that is what Denver does for good running backs.  Once he was removed from that element, we see what he really is.   He is not a top 5 running back.  Furthermore, he is playing this season to remain in the top 10 running backs.  I think the fact that Washington signed Betts to an extension shows that Washington isn't as sold on him as when they traded Champ Bailey to get him. 

Wide Receiver

Underrated: Donald Driver (Packers) - I'm not saying Donald Driver is in the Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, or Chad Johnson class.  Donald Driver's problem is that he has played in the shadow of Brett Favre and Ahman Green.  He has been a great player on a bad team the last couple of seasons.  What people need to realize is that this receiver has had four 1,000 yard seasons in the last five.  He has had three straight 1,200 yard seasons.  He has had three straight seasons with over 80 receptions.  His has yet to crack the 10 touchdown mark, although he has two seasons with 9 touchdowns.   However with Green injured and on the declne the last few seasons, and no threat opposite of him since Javon Walker left, he has been the only good option in the offense.  If Green Bay's running game can improve this year, and Jennings develops into a solid number two, Donald Driver should be able to do even bigger things this year. 

Overrated: Santana Moss (Redskins) - I really have nothing against the Washington Redskins.  I just think that if you asked people if Santana Moss is an elite wide receiver, a lot of people would say yes.  His only Pro Bowl season in 2005 was a fantastic season.  He had 80 plus catches, 1400 plus yards, and 9 touchdowns.  Besides that, he has one other 1,000 yard season.   He also had 10 touchdown catches that year.  The other three seasons he started he didn't crack 900 yards and didn't have more than 6 touchdown catches.  While he is very athletic and has shown glimpses of greatness, he has never been able to put it all together for consecutive seasons, something that elite wide receivers need to do.  Again coaching, injuries, and quarterback shuffles have hurt him.  However, I think this guy is ranked a lot higher than his production suggests he should. 

Tight End

Underrated: Ben Watson (Patriots) - He doesn't get mentioned as a top tight end; mainly because of his short time in the league, the offense he plays in, and the time he shared with Daniel Graham.  Ben Watson is as gifted as any tight end in football.  The Patriots prefer to spread the ball around to many different players.  However, he did have 49 catches for 643 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the absence of a big wide receiving threat.  I think if he played on a team that involved him more in their offense, his speed and athleticism would produce bigger numbers.  It will be interesting to see if the additions of Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth help or hurt his production.  My guess is that with Daniel Graham gone, and safeties concentrating on stopping the deep threats; Ben Watson is going to be seeing a lot of single coverage from linebackers and will be in store for a big year. 

Overrated:  Jeremy Shockey (Giants) - I'm not saying that Jeremy Shockey isn't a good football player.  I'm saying that I think people like to put Jeremy Shockey in the same category as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  Shockey has one 70 catch season, which was his rookie year.  He has never had 1,000 yard season.  He hasn't even had a 900 yard season.  The most touchdown catches he has had in a season is 7.  His 24 touchdowns in 69 games do not scream elite status.  To put it in perspective, Gates has 34 touchdowns in 61 games. He has a 1,000 yard plus season, and two 900 yards plus seasons.   Gonzalez has 6 such seasons, including the last 4 seasons.  I think the temptation is to lump these three players into the same category as superstar tight ends.  I think it is clear that while Shockey is a very good tight end, Gates and Gonzalez are in a class by themselves.

Offensive Lineman

Underrated: Mark Tauscher (Packers) - He is just a very solid player ever since he was drafted.  Started in 2000 as a seventh round pick.  From 2002 to 2004, many people considered the Packers and the Chiefs to have the best offensive lines in football.  He rarely jumps offside, and is hardly ever called for holding.  He is effective both as a run blocker and pass blocker.  However, he has never made a Pro Bowl.  When people think of great tackles, Mark Tauscher is far from the top of most people's list.  However, he has been a solid part of the solid Green Bay Packer offensive line the last 8 seasons. 

Overrated:  Eric Steinbach (Browns) - I wanted to put Leonard Davis here, but while he was overpaid, I don't think anyone besides Dallas considers him to be that good.  This is the hardest position to pick, as offensive linemen as a whole are underrated.   It isn't like the media is running around doing weekly stories about the offensive line.  However, I think that for not playing in a Pro Bowl, a 7-year, $49.5 million contract (of which $17 million is guaranteed) to a guard would qualify as overrated.  At least when Steve Hutchinson signed his big deal, he had helped lead the Seahawks to the Super Bowl and was coming off 3 Pro Bowl Seasons.   The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game.  I think Eric Steinbach is a fantastic football player.  I'm just not sure he is $49 million good. 

Defensive Lineman

Underrated - John Henderson (Jaguars) - I think John Henderson goes under the radar for a number of reasons.  First, he plays in a small market.  The Colts have been the class of that division.  Defensive Tackles tend to go unnoticed, because they don't put up a lot of sacks.  Also, he plays with another great defensive tackle in Marcus Stroud, who has been to 3 Pro Bowls.  Make no mistake, John Henderson is a big reason whey the Jaguars have had such a successful defense the last few seasons.    Henderson has played in every game since he was drafted.  He actually has more sacks than Stroud.  He also has more tackles.  All of this despite having one less season than Stroud. 

Overrated:  Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (Packers) - He is probably one of the more famous names on the Packer's defense.  Has a cool nickname in KGB.  Anyone that has watched him play in Green Bay regrets the day the Packers gave him $39 million dollars.  From 2001 to 2004 he at least registered double digit sack totals.  It at least made it bearable when he was getting run over.  The last two years he has 8 sacks and 6 sacks.  He is a liability against the run, and not sacking the quarterback enough to justify it.  The Packers had to move Jenkins to defense end on running situations to stop the onslaught teams were mounting toward KGB on running downs.  He is a good situational pass rusher, who many people thought of as an every down defensive lineman.  I have heard so many experts say he would be more effective if he had help on the other side.  Reggie White got his teammates at least 10 extra sacks a season, just because teams were concentrating on him.  I have never seen KGB make anyone better on his team. 

Linebacker

Underrated:  Donnie Edwards (Kansas City) - Defensive players are judged by the glamour statistics.  Sacks and Interceptions.   Donnie Edwards is a guy that has never had more than 3 sacks in a season.  However, he has been over 100 tackles every year since 1997, or his second season in the league. The San Diego Chargers didn't have the money to keep him, but they are not happy that he is back with Kansas City, meaning they will face him twice this season.  While sacks are not his specialty, he tackles well, stops the run, and is a defensive leader on the field.   

Overrated:   Dan Morgan (Panthers) - I'm not picking on Dan Morgan, because he is coming off serious injury.  I think this is a player that was a tremendous athlete at the University of Miami, who has never translated to being a great player in the pros.  The Panthers are considered to have a great defensive.  When people think of the Panthers defense, they think of Peppers, Jenkins, and Morgan.  The most tackles he has had in a season are 101.   He has 7 sacks and 5 interceptions in 56 games.  He has never scored a defensive touchdown.  Yet he made the Pro Bowl in 2004.  Part of the problem is that he can't seem to stay on the field.  However, while I acknowledge that he has shown glimpses of being a good middle linebacker, I haven't been as impressed as many people. 

Secondary

Underrated:  Asante Samuel (Patriots) - Just as I don't hate the Redskins, I am not a huge Patriots fan.  I just call them the way I see them.  I understand that the Patriots are the best run front office in football.  I also know that if they don't want to give him big money, it is probably the right move.  He just finished his fourth season in the league.  He is coming off a 10 interception season last year.  He has been a great starting cornerback the last two seasons.  He was one of the cornerbacks that were asked to step in when Ty Law left.  The Patriots haven't missed a beat since then.   This guy doesn't get mentioned as a top cornerback, because of the team first concept the Patriots have established over the last 5 seasons.  This guy is a top NFL talent and I think the Patriots would be foolish to let him get away. 

Overrated:  Nate Clements (49ers) - A lot of this had to do with that ridiculous contract he signed this year.  I understand he was the best defensive back on the market.  But 80 million?  The one good thing I will say about him is that he is durable.  He has played in 16 games every year of his career.  I also know that there is more to evaluating a cornerback than interception totals.  However, he has had 5 interceptions the last two seasons.  He made one Pro Bowl in 2004, which doesn't mean much, seeing Buffalo is a small market and a bad team since he got there.  I just don't equate him to Champ Bailey, Chris McCallister, Ronde Barber, or some of the other elite cornerbacks.  I definitely would not have gotten into that bidding war if I were an NFL GM.