With the NFC in the books, I turn to the more powerful of the two conferences.  In the AFC 12-4 wasn't even good enough to get a first round bye last season.  With so many powerful teams in the AFC, it should be another year where 9-7, possibly 10-6 doesn't get you into The Party.   To start my breakdown of the AFC, here is how I see the AFC West playing out this season. 

Denver Broncos

Strengths:  The Broncos have a lot of good things going for them.  Let's start with the offensive line.  The Denver offensive line has helped produce a 1,000 yard rusher on a regular basis.  Whether it is Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, or most recently Tatum Bell, the Broncos are always among the top 10 teams in the league in rushing.  This year they add an experienced running back to the mix in Travis Henry.  While he has never been able to find a long term home, he has been a very productive player.  He has posted three 1,000 yard seasons and has a 4.1 career yard per carry average.  He seems like a perfect fit for this system.  Another of the many strengths of this team is the secondary.  Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, John ####, and whoever, in this case Nick Ferguson, form one of the most talented defensive backfields in the NFL.    The receiver position also looks good.  Javon Walker is an emerging star, Rod Smith is still a productive player, and Brandon Stokely is a nice third option.  Signing Daniel Graham should help the tight end position.  The offense has the potential to score a lot of points.

Weaknesses:  The main weakness is the same as it has been since 1998.  Have the Broncos found a long term replacement for John Elway?  At least Mike Shanahan had the vision to realize Jake the Snake was not going to take him to the Promised Land.  While that may not be much of a vision, there are plenty of coaches that would have sat pat with the veteran, scared to turn the reigns of a perennial playoff team over to a rookie.  Mike Shanahan is not afraid to tinker with his lineup, which is why he has been able to keep his job.  While playing Jay Cutler might have cost him a chance at the playoffs last year, that valuable playing time should help the Broncos this season.  However, until he steps on the field and proves he is a long term answer, the position will remain a question mark.  The defense was a mix of good and bad last season.  Through the first six games, the Broncos were only giving up 8.5 points per game.   However, by seasons end they had slipped to 8th in the league with 19.1 points per game.  While their rushing defense was a respectful 12th, the pass defense slipped to 21st.  That is one reason they drafted Moss, Crowder, and Thomas on the defensive line.  The Broncos need to get more of a pass rush to take the pressure off their talented secondary.  The Broncos will miss Al Wilson, who they chose to release due to serious injury.  

Prediction:   This is a pretty easy division to pick.  Most people with a pulse are either going to go with Denver or San Diego.  I really like both teams.  Denver has so much upside.  They didn't make a lot of sexy acquisitions this offseason, but they really improved themselves.  They got better at running back and tight end.  Cutler should progress into a very nice starting quarterback.  They got younger and more athletic on the defensive line.  They were able to make the best out of a terrible situation by replacing Williams with Bly in the secondary.  The schedule looks really nice.  Anytime you draw the NFC North, there are going to be positives.  They close out the season against Oakland, Kansas City, Houston, San Diego, and Minnesota.  That is 4 very winnable games.  Their toughest games outside of the division are at Indy and at Chicago.  Every other game on the out of division schedule is winnable.  Denver was 7-2 to start last season, before the Jake Plummer collapse became too much of a burden.  By the time Cutler became comfortable, the defense had dropped off, and they missed the playoffs in a brutal AFC.  They will be better off this season, because Cutler shouldn't have September growing pains.  This team is only a year removed from the 12-4 AFC runner up team.  They have made a lot of good changes and have one of the top two or three head coaches in all of football.  While I don't look for them to get a first round bye, I see no reason why they can't take back this division.    
 
Record:  12-4, AFC West Division Title, AFC #3 seed
 
San Diego Chargers

Strengths:  When you have a running back score 31 touchdowns in a season, its hard to not start by talking about him. Tomlinson had a season for the record books.  The Chargers led the league in points last year, and were 7th in yards.  Tomlinson rushed for 1,815 yards, 28 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns.  It was one of the most amazing seasons a running back has ever seen.  As if that weren't enough, he even threw for a couple touchdowns.  Even Michael Turner chipped in with another 500 yards on the ground.  Antonio Gates had a great season has well.  He finished with 71 catches, 924 yards, and 9 touchdowns.  Phillip Rivers also had a fantastic first year starting, and was selected to the Pro Bowl.  The thing about the Chargers is that the success doesn't stop on the offensive side of the ball.  They ranked 7th in points allowed and 10th in yards given up.  Merriman would have been he defensive player of the year, had it not been for his 4 game suspension.  Merriman recorded 16.5 sacks, despite missing 4 games.  When you go 14-2, there are going to be a lot of things that go right.            

Weaknesses:  Even though the Chargers were 14-2, they still had some weaknesses last season.  The most glaring weakness was the wide receiver core.  While it's hard to get the receivers involved when Gates and Tomlinson are so productive, these receivers simply did not carry their weight.  Eric Parker was their leading receiver with 48 catches for 659 yards.  He didn't score a touchdown last season.  Six Charger wide receivers as a whole had 126 catches for 1,779 yards and 9 touchdowns last season.  To put that in perspective, Jerry Rice's 1995 season saw him catch 122 catches for 1,848 yards and 15 touchdowns.  This group needs to improve if the Chargers want to get to the Super Bowl.  The Chargers addressed this area by drafting Craig Davis in the first round.  However, if you have been reading my blog at all, you know that I don't expect much out of first year receivers, because traditionally they don't put up big numbers in their rookie season.  The other area the Chargers need to address in the secondary.   While the Chargers were a respectable 13th in passing yards allowed, Jammer led the secondary with 4 picks.  The Chargers as a team had only 16 interceptions.  If the Chargers can make more plays in the secondary this season, it should give their offense a chance to score even more points.      

Prediction: The difference in schedule is a slight advantage for Denver.  San Diego gets New England and Baltimore instead of the Steelers and Bills.   I know there are a lot of Charger fans that are not going to like this, but I don't see the Chargers winning the division this season.  Here are my 3 major concerns. 1) How do the Chargers handle the coaching changes?  Say what you want about Marty ball, but it wins in the regular season.  Not only did they lose Marty, but they lost all of the coaching staff.  Norv Turner has proven to be an excellent coordinator, but a very average head coach.  I think the coaching changes hurt San Diego this season. 2) How do the Chargers address the lack of depth at wide receiver?  True, they did just fine without it last season.  However, is LT going to have 31 touchdowns again this year?  While I still see him as the best back in the league, I think seasons like last season are once in a lifetime accomplishments.  I look for LT to have 1700 + yards, 15 touchdowns, and another 50 catches for 500 yards and a couple touchdowns.  That still means that other players on the team will have to make up that difference in touchdowns.  Besides Gates, I don't see anyone capable of doing that. 3) Repeating 14-2 seasons is very difficult.  Indy was 14-2 in 05 and slipped 12-4 in 06. The Patriots had back to back 14 win seasons in 03 and 04, and then fell to 10-6 in 05.  The Rams went from 14-2 in 01 to 7-9 the following season.   The only teams I can think of that put multiple seasons like that together are the 89 and 90 49ers and the 03 and 04 Patriots.  We are talking about two of the better dynasties in NFL history.  The Chargers are not at that level.  Most teams will slip, if for nothing else, because they have no where to go but down.  I think the Chargers will have an exciting offense this season, a terrific defense, and will win a lot of games.  I think they make the playoffs.  However, I don't think they are 14-2 again.  I think they take a slight step back, because duplicating the things that went right last season would be almost impossible. 

Record: 11-5, 2nd AFC West, AFC #5 seed 

Oakland Raiders

Strengths:  None.  Okay, I'm just kidding.  It isn't quite that bad in Oakland.  Still, when you are 2-14 on the season, there isn't a lot going right.  The Raiders ranked 1st in pass defense last season and were 3rd in total yards.  However, they were 25th in rushing yards allowed and 18th in points allowed.  The reason for these discrepancies is that teams figured out fairly early on that you didn't need to gamble against the Raiders.  Run the ball and punt if you have to.  The offense won't do anything anyway.  Just don't turn the ball over like Big Ben did for the Steelers, and you have a better than average shot.  When the offense is only scoring 10.5 points per game, there really isn't any need to score points in bunches and take unnecessary gambles.  The defense does have some nice parts.  Sapp can still play.  Washington and Huff make up a promising young secondary.   However, the Raiders are a long ways away from having a defense that rivals the Bears and Ravens.  A lot of its success was due to teams just not taking a lot of chances.      
 
Weaknesses:  This blog isn't long enough to list all the problems the Raiders had on offense last season.  Last in points.  Last in yards.  Last in everything.  They had a bed and breakfast manager disguised as an offensive coordinator.  The Raiders were smart in trying to get some fresh blood into this team.  Get a young guy from a successful offense, even if it was a college offense.  While there were many more qualified people than Lane Kiffin, he has coached with Pete Carroll and may be just what the doctor ordered for this young roster.  Many of the more successful coordinators would have balked at accepting the job.  What do the Raiders have to lose buy giving this guy a shot?  The Raiders did some nice things to improve their offense this season.  They drafted JaMarcus Russell for starters.  While rookie QBs don't usually take the league by storm, he can't be worse than the clowns that tried to play QB last season.  Jordan and Rhodes should be a nice one two punch at running back.  Zach Miller was a nice addition that should be able to contribute immediately at tight end.  Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry are not Harrison and Wayne, but they can be productive wide receivers.  The Raiders were smart to get rid of Moss. He was unhappy with the losing and the Raiders are not ready to compete this season.  He would have soured a young team.  Cut your losses and move on.  While this still isn't one of the best offenses in the league, the team is moving in the right direction, and hopefully will not repeat as the worst offensive unit in the league.  

Prediction:  While the fashionable thing is to bash the Raiders and pick them to finish somewhere between 0-16 and 2-14, I don't think they are going to be nearly as bad as they were last season.  Don't get me wrong, they are in no position to challenge the top two teams in this division.  However, there is no reason they shouldn't be able to improve their record.  For starters, they draw games against Minnesota and Detroit.  That should be nice.  Kansas City, who I will get to next, looks to be a franchise headed downhill.  They get the Browns and Texans.  Basically, even for the Raiders, there are some winnable games on the schedule.  Just as it will be hard for San Diego to repeat a 14-2 season, the Raiders would be hard pressed to go 2-14 again.  The Texans improved from 2-14 in 05 to 6-10 last season.  The 03 Giants and 04 49ers improved 2 games after having the first pick.  The NFL system allows last place teams to improve quickly.  While I don't think Russell will engineer a Return to Excellence in his first season, I think this team will score more points and should have a better record.  
    
Record:  6-10, 3rd Place AFC West, No Playoffs

Kansas City Chiefs

Strengths:  Larry Johnson.  Larry Johnson is the strength of this team.  He carried that ball 416 times last season, which is an average of 26 times per game.  He rushed for 1,789 yards and had 17 touchdowns.  Amazing you can put up a stat line like that, and still you are the second best running back in your own division.  He is the heart and soul of this offense, and as Larry Johnson goes, so do the Chiefs.  The Chiefs were 8-3 when Johnson rushed for over 100 yards in a game, as opposed to 1-4 when he did not.  Tony Gonzalez is also a great asset to this team.  He had his usual 70 catch, 900 yard season, and added 5 touchdown catches.  Damon Huard looked impressive in his 10 games, throwing for 11 touchdowns and 1 interception.  It will be interesting how that translates into a full season for this previously journeyman quarterback.  The defense improved to 11th in points allowed, which was a great improvement from the Vermeil era, which consistently had the Chiefs near the bottom of the league. 

Weaknesses:  It took Herman Edwards exactly one year to ruin this offense.  After finishing in the top 5 for offensive yardage ever season of the Vermeil era and first, first, second, and sixth in points, Herman Edwards destroyed this offense.  It dropped to 15th in both yards and points in his first year with most of the same players.  As usual, the problem was Herm Edwards refusal to embrace the passing offense, which ranked 22nd last season.  In New York, Herman Edwards best ranking in yards was 12th and his best ranking in scoring was 15th.  Only one season did he crack both the top 20 in points and yards in the same season, which was his 10-6 2004 Jets team.  While Herm Edwards may be a great motivator and great defensive mind, he has consistently showed that his teams are dreadful on the offensive side of the ball.  That came to light in the Indy playoff game, where he basically ran his team into a wall in probably the worst called offensive game I have ever seen.  The team is thus very average at wide receiver.  After posting back to back 1,000 yard seasons, Kennison led the team with 53 catches for 860 yards and 5 touchdowns.  They added Dwayne Bowe in the first round.  Again, you know what I think of rookie wide receivers.  Also, hurting the team is the loss of their special teams ace in Dante Hall.  It will be interesting how this loss affects their starting field position; something you would think would be of some importance for a team that struggles to move the ball in large chunks.   

Prediction:  This is the playoff team I am looking to take the biggest fall.  The Chiefs appear to be headed to a holdout with Larry Johnson, have shipped Trent Green out of town, are in a contract stalemate with their leading quarterback sacker, Jarred Allen.  Their great offensive line is slowly retiring.  This has the makings of a team headed in the wrong direction.  The Chiefs are stupid for getting into a contract squabble with Johnson.  Without him, this may be the Oakland Raiders of last season.  He has every right to want his money now.  Edwards is going to run him into the ground in the next 3 years at the rate he is carrying the ball.  He needs to get his money now, while he is young and healthy.  While players rarely sit out the season, this is not a good sign for the heart and soul of the offense to be talking about a lengthy holdout.  While Huard looked good in his starting time last season, he has never been asked to be the starter.  It will be interesting to see how he deals with that responsibility being placed on him.  Several guys have looked like Superman as a backup and Clark Kent as a starter.  Rob Johnson and Scott Mitchell come to mind.  The defense is okay, but nothing outstanding.  A lot of their success had to do with the ball control style they play, rather than any upgrades they made from the Vermeil era.  Donnie Edwards was a very good pickup.  He is a very underrated linebacker that is good for over 100 tackles every year.  The Chiefs have to get off to a fast start.  Week 9 to Week 14 is not the part of the schedule they will make up ground.  They start with a home game against the Packers, and then play the Broncos, at the Colts, Raiders, Chargers, and at Broncos.  That has the potential to be a 2-4 or 1-5 stretch.  They also have games against the Bears, Jaguars, Jets, and Bengals.  I thought Herm Edwards was a good hire, because the offense was in place, and he could concentrate on building the defense.  I thought he could do what Dungy did in Indy, repair the defense, while leaving the offense intact.  While Dungy had a young QB in Manning, rather than an old QB like Green; Herm Edwards is slowly turning the Chiefs into what he had in New York.  A team that plays hard, has a stingy defense, and can't score to save their lives.  Instead of blaming his offensive coordinators, it might be time to blame him.  This guy is quickly showing that he would be better served as a defensive coordinator, rather than a head coach.  I think this offense falls into the 20s this season.  I look for this team to take a huge fall, and finish behind even the lowly Raiders. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place AFC West, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the AFC West predictions.  I will try to post the AFC North sometime next week.