Now that training camps have officially kicked off I decided to come up with a list of the 12 burning questions on NFL fan’s minds entering training camp. With 32 teams I could not cover everyone. If you think I made a glaring admission please leave it in the comments and I will try to address it. Without further delay here are the 12 biggest questions around the NFL now that teams have reported for training camp.

12) Is Matt Leinart ready to emerge as the Arizona starter? - All indications are that he has looked good through the off-season and is ready to take control of that offense. However, the Cardinals also like Warner and have been having him take snaps with the first unit as well. He had his best season since leaving St Louis.

I think Leinart’s party lifestyle has gotten blown out of proportion. These guys are going to enjoy themselves. They aren’t robots that eat and digest football 24/7. They have families, endorsements, business ventures, and yes…hot tubs full of sexy young ladies.

Had this happened the Saturday night before the Seattle game I would have had a different take. Had he gone to Mexico with his entourage of hotness the week before his opening playoff game I would not have been impressed. It happened in the off-season and there is nothing wrong with Leinart enjoying his celebrity. The world of camera phones make it hard to keep that stuff private. When you combine that with his USC celebrity status you have the makings for that type of story.

This is the year he needs to break out. He has great receiving talent and a solid back in James. He has a good coaching staff. The line is not perfect and the defense will give up points, but the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, Steelers, and Browns in 2007. All three teams won 10 games. The time for excuses are over. I think he does have a good year, but I’m not certain. What I am certain of is that whether he breaks out or not will have nothing to do with the company he kept in his hot tub.

11) Will the NY Jets and Oakland Raiders spending spree pay off? - It might have paid off in the NFC. The problem is that the Jets finished 12 games off the Patriots in 2007. Even with the players they added they are only the second best team in that division. The Raiders finished 7 games off the Chargers. They too have a long way to go to close that gap.

At the end of the day it is still a quarterback’s league. The Jets have Pennington and Clemens and the Raiders are trying to figure out if Russell and McFadden can usher in a new era of excellence. While both teams added some good players and both teams overpaid for some talent they will be better in 2008. I just don’t think they’ll be good enough to compete with the slew of playoff teams in the AFC.

I look for the Jets to get to the .500 mark and for the Raiders to get to 6-7 wins. While that will be improvement, it won’t satisfy fan’s expectations given that the Jets and Raiders were throwing dollars at free agents this off-season like PacMan throws at strippers on a Monday night. Sorry Dallas fans. I couldn’t help myself.

10) Where does Shaun Alexander end up in 2008? - I don’t understand why he hasn’t ended up in Green Bay yet. Ted Thompson drafted him in Seattle. Thompson has cap room and wouldn't have to give up draft picks. Ryan Grant is holding out for a larger contract. The Packers have no proven rushers on their roster. It would seem like a no brainer to get this guy into camp, 1) to put pressure on Grant to sign, 2) To have an insurance policy if Grant gets hurt, is ineffective, or both, 3) To show your younger players how to play the running back position.

Alexander doesn’t have nearly enough in the tank to generate a season like he did when he won the MVP in 2005. What he does have is a wealth of experience and the ability to share the load with another runner. He could be a valuable player in a playoff game. I would expect that someone’s running back is going to get injured and that they will turn to Shaun Alexander at that point to save their season. It is amazing how quickly a guy can go from MVP to out of a job.

9) Are Cleveland and Minnesota playoff teams in 2008? - These were basically the two teams that just missed the playoffs in 2007. These teams are usually the most intriguing the following year. In 2006 Green Bay used its playoff miss to improve from 8-8 to 13-3. Denver and Cincinnati regressed from their near misses in 2006 to play even worse in 2007. It can go both ways.

Minnesota had a great off season adding Jared Allen to the defensive line. Bernard Berrian gives them a much better target at receiver. Jackson is developing. With the “retirement” of Brett Favre the division is in flux and I expect the Vikings to grab the NFC North. In the extremely unlikely event the Vikings could acquire Favre they could be a Super Bowl contender.

Cleveland added a lot of talent on the defensive line with Rogers and Williams. They also added Stallworth to the receiver mix. Their offensive core is still young and improving. This could be a very dangerous team in 2008. I am expecting 10 wins and the final playoff spot.

Also don’t forget New Orleans. They finished 7-9 after making the NFC Championship in 2006. They have added Shockey. Vilma, Ellis, McCray, and Ga y. If their defense can regain its 2006 form and the offense can mount more of a downfield threat the Saints will be in prime position to win the NFC South.

8) Who will be the super surprise team of 2008? - I think the team with the best chance to go from the top 10 of the draft to playoff contention would be the St Louis Rams. They have a lot of offensive talent. Bulger is a solid quarterback. Jackson is a threat both as a runner and pass catcher. Holt is still a number one target. The Rams had a lot of issues on defense and the offensive line last year. Pace needs to stay healthy and Chris Long needs to have a big year to help bring back the defense.

That said the Rams don’t play in the toughest of divisions and they draw the AFC East in 2008. I only have them finishing 6-10, but I would not be shocked if they were able to get to 8-8 or 9-7 and contend for either the division or the last wildcard spot. They need to stay healthy and they need defensive improvement, but the Rams have a lot more skill position players than the run of the mill 3-13 squad.

7) Will the San Diego Chargers be healthy to start the season? - How is Gate’s toe? How is LT’s knee? How is River’s knee? How much work will they see in preseason? No one doubts that the Chargers have the talent in place to make a run for Tampa. The concern is that they will be hampered by injuries from the get go.

Phillip Rivers has been throwing the ball at camp and appears to be throwing the ball with excellent velocity. The San Diego Union reported that he appeared to be thicker in the upper body. All indications seem to point to him being ready for the opener. LT also appears to be a go with his knee for training camp. That is important because Turner bolted for Atlanta. The biggest question marks appear to be with Gate’s toe and Jamal William’s knee.

Gates is a huge part of the Chargers pass game. While Chambers and Jackson are solid targets they are by no means superstar number one caliber players. Gates is the best tight end in football when healthy. His blend of speed, leaping ability, and size make him impossible to defend. If he is not able to go that will be a huge blow to the Chargers.

On defense Williams is a big part of the run defense. Without him at full strength the Chargers will be more susceptible to the run. In a division with Denver, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that would be a huge blow.

I expect the Chargers to go 12-4 this season and work through their injury issues. This is still a young team that should be able to overcome those issues. However, a few big injuries are enough to derail even the best squads and the Chargers are starting off the training camp season with some big concerns.

6) Can Pittsburgh survive the toughest schedule in the NFL? - I think they will, but that schedule is brutal. Pittsburgh is like the Baltimore Ravens of a year ago. The Ravens were coming off a 13-3 season, but people were very concerned about a Week 12-14 stretch where they played San Diego, New England, and Indy. Pittsburgh this season draws an even tougher slate. They play Indy, San Diego, New England, and Dallas in 4 out of 5 weeks from Week 10-14. Most people have those 4 teams somewhere in their top 5 or 6 rankings in the NFL.

I think the Steelers have a lot of things going for them that the Ravens didn’t in 2007. I think that Big Ben gives the Steelers the play at quarterback that a team needs to survive a stretch like that. McNair and Boller didn’t do that for the Ravens. I think the Steelers have more players on offense that can score points. I think the defense is in good shape. It also helps to have Cincinnati in the middle of that stretch. That is a team that the Steelers can regain offensive confidence against should they struggle to start that stretch.

The bottom line is that the Steelers still have a good team and I think people are getting a little too caught up in the schedule and in Cleveland’s off-season additions. This is still the Steelers’ division. That said it is imperative that Pittsburgh stay healthy and they don’t get off to a poor start and lose games early in the season that they should take care of. They need to beat the Ravens twice, the Bengals twice, and the Texans. They need to play well at home. They aren’t going to go 16-0 against that schedule, but they should be able to finish around 10-6 or 11-5. However, if things don’t go their way the schedule will do them no favors and could knock them on the ground fast. The Steelers have little to no margin for error.

5) Can the New York Giants repeat as Super Bowl champions? - They could, but I think it is very unlikely. Critics of the NY Giants are going to start with an Eli Manning bashing. I’m just going to look at it by the numbers. The New York Giants beat the Buccaneers soundly, 24-14. Then they beat the Cowboys by 3 points intercepting Romo in the end zone to close the game. They intercepted Favre in overtime to beat the Packers by 3 points. They won the Super Bowl by 3 points against New England. This is not a team that ran away with the playoffs. It is a team that got hot at the end of the season, played at a very high level both physically but mentally as well, and caught a lot of good breaks. To expect a team to win that many close games a second year in a row is not realistic.

The New York Giants had a lot of losses this off-season. Strahan is a Hall of Famer and the leader of this team. He is no longer there. Wilson, Mitchell, and Torbar left via free agency. Shockey was traded to the Saints. That is a lot of talent to lose. They drafted well, but those players will need time to develop.

Then there is Eli Manning. When all the dust settles he still has a 54.7 career completion percentage, has never thrown for more than 3,800 yards, has never thrown for more than 25 touchdowns, has never thrown for less than 15 interceptions in a season in which he started 16 games. He has a career 73.4 quarterback rating. I expect him to play his best season this year. I think the playoffs were no fluke and I think he turned the corner. 3,500 to 3,800 yards, 25 touchdowns, 15 picks and a rating in the mid to high 80’s is realistic. The NY Giants should make the playoffs as a wildcard.

Once there anything is possible. But I don’t see them having another run to the Super Bowl. It is very hard to repeat in the NFL and the Giants didn’t show me enough in the playoffs last year or the off-season adding talent to make me think we are in the midst of an emerging dynasty. I think it is a very talented team that peaked at the right time and made the most of a tremendous opportunity. They deserve credit for their accomplishment, but also deserve to be viewed based on their talent going into this season not their play to end last season.

4) Will Dallas win it’s first playoff game since 1996? - If Dallas doesn’t win the NFC this season it isn’t ever going to happen. In 2006 Romo had only started a hand full of games. Last season under new coach Wade Phillips they raced out to a 12-1 record before finishing 1-3. TO was injured last in the season and Romo again played poorly in the playoffs.

This season they seem to have it all. TO, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Jason Witten give them all the skill position players they could ask for. Romo is entering his 3rd season as a starter. The offensive line is stacked with 3 Pro Bowl players. The defense added Zach Thomas, PacMan Jones, and Mike Jenkins. If the Cowboys can’t win a playoff game this year they have no excuses. If they can’t make it to the Super Bowl they will have had a disappointing season.

The problem the Cowboys have is that they have people that traditionally come up small in the playoffs and I’m not even talking about Romo. It is not fair to give Romo that tag after appearing in only two playoff games. I’m talking about TO and Phillips. For all of TO’s regular season success since TO became a star receiver in the 1998 season he is 2-6 in the playoffs. He had a fantastic game against the New York Giants when the 49ers overcame a 38-14 3rd quarter deficit. He had 9 receptions for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also played well in the Super Bowl with Philly. Other than that he has a bunch of games under 100 yards and with very low touchdown output. Part of that is because he tends to be hurt at the end of the season. That was the case in 2004, 2006, and 2007. He needs to stay healthy and he needs to bring his A game for the Cowboys to win.

Then there is Wade Phillips. He has a 61-42 record as a Head Coach, but is 0-4 in the playoffs. Part of that can be blamed on a Music City Miracle, but part of that debacle last year was his fault. That team looked fat and comfortable against New York. This year there are now excuses. They should have all the talent and motivation to get the job done. If the Cowboys show bad in the playoffs he isn’t going to have another crack at it. I look for the Cowboys to win that first playoff game and to be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

3) Will Peyton Manning be ready for the season opener? - It’s difficult to say at this point, because surgeries have so many variables that Manning will not be able to control. Infection is always the biggest worry. Given that he has never missed a game in his career and given that he has a history of healing fast and taking care of his body I would be shocked if he wasn’t ready to go.

The problem for Indy is they don’t get a cakewalk type schedule to open the season and allow Manning to get back in the flow. They open at home against Chicago, travel to Minnesota, and return home to face Jacksonville. If he starts off slow the schedule has the potential to put the Colts in an early season hole. That is something foreign to this team in recent years. Since 2000 the Colts are 20-4 in September. Their last September loss was a 27-24 September 09, 2004 at New England.

Peyton Manning isn’t going to lose chemistry with his receivers. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and Addai have a lot of experience in this offense. The offensive line has been together for a while. The question is more based on ability. If the knee is sore will Manning be able to make the throws with the same accuracy and velocity that he is accustomed too? How much mobility will the injury take away?

Peyton Manning is a prolific passer and I am not betting against him. I think he will be sharp and ready to go to start the season. I look for him to have another Peyton Manning like year.

2) Can New England, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss duplicate their 2007 success? - The schedule actually lines up better for them in 2008 than 2007. In 2007 the Patriots had 8 games against playoff teams from 2006 on the schedule. In 2008 the Patriots have just 4. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2008 based on last seasons record at .387. Furthermore Randy Moss and Tom Brady have had a year to play together. Things look good for the Patriots to have a great year.

I think the Patriots will have a great year. What they won’t have is a historic year like they did in 2007. The New England Patriots were starting to slowdown my Week 9 last year. From the Week 9 Colts game to the Super Bowl the Patriots averaged 29.5 points per game compared to the first 8 games where they averaged 41.4 points per game . Tom Brady had 30 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his first 8 games. He had 26 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his last 11 games of the season. Moss had 11 touchdowns in his first 8 games and 13 touchdowns in his last 11 games. Wes Welker slowed in the 2nd half of the season.

I’m not saying this team played bad the second half of the season. They won 10 of those last 11 games and the loss was by 3 points. What I am saying is they were immortal the first 8 games of 2007 and after that they were a team that won some big games, but played 7 games that were decided by 10 points or less. Where I expect the Patriots to pick up is where they left off the 2007 season not where they started the 2007 season. I think 4,000 to 4,200 yards and 30-35 touchdown passes are likely for Brady. I think Moss will have 80-90 catches for 1,300-1,400 yards and 12-15 touchdowns. I think the Patriots will not be able to run the table a second consecutive year based on the losses they had on defense and the fact that their offense won’t be so explosive. 13-3 is a realistic record. The schedule looks pretty easy to start. I think the Patriots will be primed to lose their Week 6 game at San Diego.

1) Where does Brett Favre play in 2008 and if not Green Bay how do the Packers fare without him? - I’m done trying to guess this. It keeps taking a lot of unpredictable turns. Based on what the Packers are communicating publicly it seems as if they are ready to go with Aaron Rodgers whether he plays the camp of all camps or has one to forget. Thompson and McCarthy seem to be 100% behind him. Whether people agree with that position doesn’t matter. Brett Favre is no longer the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.

That makes it hard to see Favre in a Packer uniform for the start of the season. I can’t imagine he would want to hold a clipboard or that the Packers would want him to do that. Thompson is already referring to the Packer players as #4’s former teammates. That means he will either return to retirement and possibly come out should Rodgers get injured. It might also be possible another quarterback gets injured that the Packers would be agreeable to sending him too. I think it is very possible he never plays again.

As far as how the Packers do in 2008. I picked an 8-8 season before Favre retired and the pressure on Rodgers to perform will be at an all-time high. If he starts slow the call for #4’s name will be heard throughout Lambeau Field and the media.

It is so hard to replace a legend even with the greatest of coaches. Mike Shanahan is 130-78 since he took over in Denver back in 1995. However, his career is a tale of two parts. From 1995 to 1998 he went 47-17, which is .734. He was 7-1in three playoff appearances and won back to back Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998. However, since 1998 he is only 83-61, which is .576. He is 1-4 in the playoffs and has not been back to a Super Bowl.

It hasn’t been as if the cupboard has been bare in Denver since 1998. He was able to replace Terrell Davis after the Super Bowl runs and the defense has had some good seasons. What Shanahan has sought and not been able to find is a replacement for John Elway. Bubby Brister, Chris Miller, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Steve Beuerlein, Danny Kanell, Jarious Jackson, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler have all tried. They have had mixed levels of success with Jake Plummer being the most successful and Jay Cutler showing the most promise. However without John Elway Mike Shanahan has been an above average coach.

That isn’t meant to diminish what Shanahan has accomplished. In my book he should be in the Hall of Fame. All the great coaches need great quarterback play to win. What we don’t know is if Mike McCarthy is a good head coach or if Favre made him look better than he was. Mike Sherman looked like a good head coach when he took over and that quickly faded even with Favre there through it all. We don’t know what Rodgers can do. 59 career passes is not enough to make a determination.

You could tell me the Packers could go 4-12 or 12-4 and I could really agree or disagree. There are too many unknowns on this team. Given the history or replacing legendary quarterbacks, first year quarterback struggles, the tougher first place schedule that features the AFC South, and a hold out by Ryan Grant who was their only rushing offense in 2007 I think 8-8 is a fair guess at this time. I don’t see how this team contends for the playoffs without Favre.

So what is your burning question for 2008? Do you think I answered these on the head or do you think I got it all wrong? Let me know your thoughts.

I plan to release my Playoff Predictions based off of my 8 division previews on Wednesday, August 6th. I haven’t done real well with responding to comments on my last couple articles due to time constraints on my part. I will try to do better on this article.

 You can view this article and other articles I've written at the Maniax's site.

This is my seventh of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The AFC West was probably the most disappointing division in 2007. The AFC West combined to go 10-22 on the road. The AFC West had a combined 14-26 record out of division. The Chargers were expected to compete for the Super Bowl after going 14-2 in 2006. They started 5-5, before winning their last 6 games to close the season and advance to the AFC Championship Game. The Denver Broncos were a big player in free agency and were supposed to compete with the Chargers for the division. They were a very disappointing 7-9. The Chiefs were going through a youth moment and while making the playoffs again was not necessarily expected, they fell from 9-7 to 4-12. Finally, you have the Raiders who actually exceeded many people’s expectations, but just didn’t have enough talent to win more than 4 games.

The AFC West has been owned by the San Diego Chargers the last couple seasons. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC West.

1) San Diego Chargers

07 Record: 11-5

Points Scored: 412(5th)

Points Allowed: 284 (5th)

Playoff Result: Lost AFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 108-148 (.422) (31st in NFL)

Strengths: The Chargers have done an excellent job in recent years drafting players and the result is a team that has a lot of strengths. They used those to advance to the AFC Championship Game, despite the injuries they had to Rivers, LT, and Gates. It was a very inspiring effort that they should be applauded for. Therefore, the Chargers had the luxury of not having to be active in free agency and being able to use their draft picks to sure up depth.

Let’s start with the defense, which was the strength of the 2007 season. The Chargers terrorized quarterbacks in 2007. They ranked 5th in sacks with 42. Shawne Merriman has become a premier pass rusher. Many people thought he had a down year and he still recorded 12.5 sacks. Shaun Phillips had 8.5 sacks and flies under the radar with Merriman grabbing most of the attention. Stephen Cooper is going to have to sit the first four games of the NFL season, which does not help an inside linebacker position that is not the strength of the defense to begin with.

The Chargers ranked 1st in quarterback rating allowed at 70.0. Their high number of interceptions drove that. They had a league best 30 interceptions, 8 more than the second place teams Indianapolis and Tennessee. To put that in perspective, 14 interceptions, which are 8 less than Indy and Tennessee ranked 23rd in the NFL. The Chargers were in a class by themselves. Antonio Cromartie had a lot to do with that as he recorded a league best 10 interceptions despite only starting eight games. Antoine Cason was added to the defensive backs as a first round pick and should help the Chargers nickel and dime packages. You can never have enough defensive backs in a playoff game against the Colts and Patriots.

On offense, LT didn’t have a record setting year, but he still was amazing. He managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,474 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and a league best 15 rushing touchdowns. That speaks to how well the Chargers offensive line played, especially in the second half of the season. Gates was also great last season. He had 984 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. The interesting thing to watch will be how Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson do now that they have a full year together. Jackson came close, but failed to record a 100-yard game in 2007. He had no multi touchdown games. Chris Chambers did neither of those things in his Charger career. If the Chargers are going to finally contend for the Super Bowl they need to get more production out of their wide receivers. They are receiving almost exclusively single coverage and need to make teams pay for that.

On special teams Darren Sproles is a very dangerous return man. Mike Scifres is a very solid punter and Nate Kaeding has been a mainstay among the best kickers in the league the last two seasons.

Weaknesses: The Chargers had two main weaknesses in 2008. They weren’t very solid against the run, at times. While they ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed; part of that was because Adrian Peterson recorded a 295-yard game against them. If you take that game out, they are closer to the top 10. Still, in the playoffs Maroney had 122 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Some weeks the Chargers were great against the run. Other weeks they got run over. They need to be a little more consistent in that regard.

The bigger weakness is the same thing it was entering last season with a couple wrinkles. Is Philip Rivers the real deal? He did not have a good follow up to his Pro Bowl season. He went from 3,388 yards to 3,152 yards. He went from 22 touchdowns to 21 touchdowns. He went from 9 interceptions to 15. His completion percentage went from 61.7 to 60.2. He went from a rating of 92.0 to 82.4. He just didn’t improve in any area. He also gained a reputation for being a head case and yelling at fans. That was particularly evident in the Colts playoff game. He needs to tone that down and act like a solid professional and a leader of the team. He has too much talent for people to be talking about that instead of his play.

The wrinkle in the Chargers offense is all the injuries the Chargers are coming back from this season. Tomlinson had just two carries in the AFC Championship Game and while his knee did not require surgery there are still concerns when knee injury and LT are mentioned in the same sentence. That makes the loss of Turner to the Falcons even more significant. Hester was drafted out of LSU to team with Sproles to fill that void. Gates has a toe problem that has his status for the opener in doubt. Rivers had an ACL injury that was expected to have six months of recovery time. He is hopeful for training camp.

It is never good to have one star player coming off injury. To have three injury question marks to the three best players on the offense is a huge concern. The Chargers need to hope these guys are ready by the opener. Without those three being healthy the Chargers will struggle to win even the weak AFC West.

Prediction: If the Chargers were in another division, I would have more concerns. They couldn’t have started worse in 2007. They started 1-3 and they still won the division by 4 games. The Broncos have too many issues on run defense and at their skill positions they are still not proven. The Raiders and Chiefs have too many issues to list. The Chargers have the second easiest schedule in the NFL and that will serve them well if their players are a little slow to get back into the groove. They open with Carolina, at Denver, NY Jets, at Oakland, and at Miami. That is a schedule they should be able to maneuver even if a few players are slow to get back. I could see the Chargers being a strong second half team similar to last year.

What I do think the injuries prevent the Chargers from doing is having a better record than the Jags and Patriots. If they had everyone healthy and ready to go, I probably would have had them with a better record than the Patriots. They should still win the AFC West, but still have to open up the playoffs in the first round at home and travel in the second round. Based on my predictions that would be to New England. That could make advancing to the Super Bowl a difficult task, which at this point is the only Charger obstacle not yet hurdled.

San Diego Chargers’ Record: 12-4 – AFC West Divisional Champion; AFC #3 Seed

2) Denver Broncos

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 320 (21st)

Points Allowed: 409 (28th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 114-142 (.445) (29th in NFL)

Strengths: The Broncos have a nice young nucleus of offensive players. Jay Cutler is only 25 years old. He passed for 3,497 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first full year starting. He posted an 88.1 rating. Brandon Marshall had 102 receptions for 1,325 yards. He is only 24 years old. Tony Scheffler had 549 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns at the tight end spot. He is only 25 years old. Finally, with Travis Henry gone Selvin Young looks to take over the number one spot. He turns 25 in October.

That gives the Broncos a nice nucleus of young players to grow around. They need to start getting younger on the offensive line, which they did by selecting Ryan Claddy. The Broncos zone-blocking scheme is being copied through out the league. A top 10 rushing offense is something that is taken for granted in Denver. Even with their running woes in 2007 they managed to finish 9th in yards gained on the ground.

On defense, the Broncos finished in the top 10 in passing yards allowed. That is expected when the secondary features the corner duo of Bailey and Bly. Lync h is starting to get a little older, but still supports the run well. DJ Williams is a promising young linebacker that struggled as the middle linebacker. He is expected to play full time on the weak side, which will suit his strengths much better. Boss Bailey was brought in giving the Broncos great speed at the outside linebacker spot.

Finally, there is Mike Shanahan. He has been the Broncos headman since 1995. The only coach with a longer tenure is Jeff Fisher, who replaced Jack Pardee at the end of the 1994 season. Shanahan has had only two losing seasons since he arrived in Denver. The last time he had a losing record the Broncos bounced back with 11 wins the following year.

Ted Sundquist was fired as the GM, a role he held since 2002. Mike Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings and a lot of experience. The Broncos are under pressure to win this year. They have only been in one AFC Championship Game since 1998. The Broncos are expecting that he will turn out a winner soon. If the Broncos regress in 2008, Shanahan’s job may be in jeopardy.

Weaknesses: Run defense. Plain and simple this kept the Broncos from being a playoff team in 2007. They ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed. The front 4 could not keep anyone from ramming the ball down their throat. That really hurt Bailey and Bly who anchored the 7th ranked pass defense, but had only 8 interceptions. That was 6 less than the 14 interceptions Bailey and Williams combined for in 2006. If the Broncos can stop the run better, Bailey and Bly should see their pick totals go up. If they can’t teams will keep the ball on the ground to stay away from Denver’s potent playmaker duo.

They also need to get a better pass rush from their front 4. Elvis Dumervil had 12.5 sacks. The next best individual sack total was a mere four sacks. That just isn’t going to get the job done. That is another reason Bailey and Bly didn’t excel in 2007. Defensive backs rely on pressure from the front seven to put pressure on the quarterback and force bad decisions. The Broncos didn’t go out and sign a marquee free agent on the defensive line. They have drafted a number of young defensive linemen in the past few drafts. They took the approach of hoping their younger players would improve and brining in non household name talent.

The other problem that confronted the Broncos was their redzone scoring. The Broncos ranked 11th in yards gained, 13th in passing yards gained, and 9th in rushing yards gained. The problem was that they ranked only 18th in rushing touchdowns and 16th in passing touchdowns. That produced the 21st ranked scoring offense.

The Broncos released Travis Henry due to his off the field issues and still have some good backs in place. Selvin Young ranked 3rd among rookie rushers and started only 8 games. Andre Hall showed signs of promise. Michael Pittman is a veteran that was signed to give the team some experience. One of these guys needs to emerge and the most probable candidate is Young. A good running game and a strong offense will go a long way to helping out the Broncos run defense stay off the field and playing with a lead.

Finally, this team has a glaring special teams weakness for the first time in many years. Jason Elam is no longer with the team. Matt Pratter takes his place and he has some big shoes to fill. Elam had been with the Broncos since 1993. He won many close games for the Broncos with clutch kicks last year. That was evident last year. It remains to be seen if the Broncos win some of the close games they have taken for granted for so many years or if Pratter is not up to the task.

Prediction: The Broncos are moving in the right direction. They had to take a step back by going with the young quarterback in Cutler and leaving the inconsistent experience of Jake Plummer. While that means they have missed the playoffs for two straight years, Cutler gives this team a chance to compete for the Super Bowl down the road, something they never could have done with Plummer.

The problem is that the run defense collapsed overnight. Denver went from 12th against the run in 2006 to 30th in 2007. The Broncos really haven’t done anything to fix that problem. In a division with LT, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that is a risky proposition. All the teams in this division would love nothing more than to stay committed to the running game.

I think the Broncos will compete with the Browns and Titans for the final playoff spot. I think Cutler, Marshall, and Young will all have a big year. I also think the Broncos have to many issues with their running game. I look for the Broncos to better their 2007 record, but miss the playoffs by a game to the Browns. The Browns’ defense is nothing to write home about, but their offense is a lot more explosive.

Denver Broncos’ Record: 9-7 – AFC West 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Oakland Raiders

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 283 (23rd)

Points Allowed: 398 (26th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 112-142 (.438) (30th in NFL)

Strengths: The Raiders actually made a lot of strides in 2007. The coaching staff and players got along much better than they did in 2006. That is why it is surprising that Al Davis would be fighting with his young coach, Lane Kiffin after his first year on the job. While Al Davis is a hard owner to predict, there is no way that a reasonable owner would have expected more than 4-6 wins with the mess Kiffin took over. Kiffin had no NFL experience and was taking over a team that had scored just 168 points the year before. While 283 points scored ranked only 23rd, that was nine spots higher than 2006. The Raiders won 4 games and were competitive in 6 others. That was done without the benefit of their first round pick JaMarcus Russell. He threw only 66 passes last season. I would say Kiffin got good results out of the offense and the team in general.

The offense has the potential to be even better in 2008. Darren McFadden appears to be the real deal. He has everything you could ask for. Speed, strength, and a good running style. Don’t expect him to have the year Peterson had in 2007, simply because the Oakland line is nowhere near the Minnesota line. McFadden is signed and will be in camp on day one. He has the talent to make an immediate impact. If he is slow to start off with, don’t forget that Justin Fargas had 1,009 yards rushing last season. The Raiders have a nice backfield in place.

The Raiders tried to upgrade the receiving core by signing Javon Walker to a $55 million dollar contract. That was the theme of the Raider offseason, Just Spend Baby!!! I think Walker will upgrade the receiving core, but remember he has had 2 knee injuries since 2005, plus the Williams incident in Denver and the new Las Vegas incident where he sustained serious injuries in a robbery. Plus, I have read reports that he didn’t show up in the best of shape to Raider workouts in May, something that was a disappointment given the money Oakland threw his way. How he does in 2008 is anything but a certainty at this point.

The pass defense should be strong again. The Raiders gave up the 8th fewest passing yards in the NFL and the 4th fewest passing touchdowns. Signing Wilson away from the Giants and trading for Hall from the Raiders really gives a boost to their secondary. They lost Washington to the Ravens in a trade, but still appear to have a very strong secondary in place.

Weaknesses: The Raiders success on pass defense is somewhat of a mirage. Yes they have some good talent there. But when your team gives up the second most rushing yards in the NFL, the most yards per attempt, and the most rushing touchdowns teams aren’t going to waste their time throwing the ball. Keep in mind that teams passed the ball the second fewest times against Oakland. Even a team like Green Bay that relied heavily on the pass was able to basically rest Favre coming off an injury against the Cowboys when they played the Raiders. Favre threw the ball just 23 times in a 38-7 victory as Ryan Grant gashed them for a regular season high 29 carries and 156 yards.

If the Raiders are going to compete in this division with LT, Denver’s running system, and Larry Johnson they have to be able to stop the run. They signed Thomas Kelly to a record contract for a defensive lineman, something that was boggling to the mind. Warren Sapp is gone from the fold this year. He was clearly on the downside of his career. Still, the Raiders really didn’t address the defensive line, which is the most important part of the run defense.

On offense, the passing game is going to really struggle at times this year. Russell had only 66 attempts in 2007, so he is going to be learning on the job. I’ve already talked about Walker’s question marks. After him and Curry there isn’t a lot of proven talent at the receiving core. Zach Miller is a young emerging tight end. The first year of starting for a quarterback is always a difficult chore. With a below average receiving I expect Russell to show signs of greatness, but also struggle quite a bit.

Prediction: Things are getting better for Oakland. They are getting a young nucleus of players on offense and are starting to bring some talent in on defense. The Raiders and Jets were the most active teams in free agency and fans are going to be excited that a winning season is near.

They still have a few problems. San Diego has a young nucleus in place and is not ready to surrender the division to Oakland. Denver also has a young nucleus on offense and while they have their own troubles on defense they have better receivers, offensive line, and secondary. It is going to be hard for the Raiders to break through that in 2008.

However, I only see the Chargers window being open for a couple more seasons. Once LT turns 30 they are going to have some big question marks. Denver could be going through a coaching change if Shanahan doesn’t make it back to the playoffs. Whoever can draft the best between Kansas City and Oakland will be in an excellent position to shoot toward the top of the division in 2009 or 2010. Oakland has a head start, because the hardest thing to find is the quarterback. The Chiefs don’t look like they have found their quarterback, which is worse than the Raiders who are still determining if they have found theirs. As it stands right now though they will play teams competitive, probably win some games against the likes of Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo, Atlanta, but still hover around the 6-10 mark.

Oakland Raiders’ Record: 6-10 – AFC West 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Kansas City Chiefs

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 226 (31st)

Points Allowed: 335 (14th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 116-140 (.453) (26th in NFL)

Strengths: The Chiefs were not expected to do much after having an absolutely terrible preseason and Larry Johnson holding out until the start of the season. They started off 4-3 and looked like they might be able to compete in a division that saw San Diego and Denver struggle out of the gates. Larry Johnson would get hurt in game number eight, which they lost to the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs lost another eight games to close the season.

One thing the Chiefs had was a pretty nice pass defense last season. They finished ranked 5th in passing yards allowed. They also finished 9th in sacks. They were also 14th in points allowed. However, you can throw all that out the window, because their best defender, Jared Allen, is no longer with the team. He led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and was the team’s best defender. He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings before the draft for draft picks.

The Chiefs went with a youth movement and the result was one of the best drafts in the NFL. They should be better than 28th against the run. Glenn Dorsey is one of the best defensive tackle prospects to come out of college in a number of years and he should immediately help them in that regard. Brandon Flowers should also help the passing game from the cornerback position as he replaces Ty Law.

On offense many people expected the Chiefs to struggle through the air in 2007. The Chiefs have some good targets that put up solid numbers, despite their QB woes. Tony Gonzalez is still among the most productive tight ends in the NFL. He led all tight ends in receiving yards and had five touchdowns. Dwayne Bowe finished five yards shy of a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. He also had five touchdowns.

They are hoping that Brandon Albert can help improve the offensive line and that Jammal Charles can help give them another back to spell Larry Johnson. The Chiefs could have as many as three rookie starters (Dorsey, Albert, and Flowers) as well as Charles, tight end Brad Cottam, and safety DeJaun Morgan contributing as backups. The Chiefs are in a full blown rebuilding project.

Weaknesses: Last year I said this about Herm Edwards in my 2007 AFC West predictions, “It took Herman Edwards exactly one year to ruin this offense. After finishing in the top 5 for offensive yardage ever season of the Vermeil era and first, first, second, and sixth in points, Herman Edwards destroyed this offense. It dropped to 15th in both yards and points in his first year with most of the same players. As usual, the problem was Herm Edwards refusal to embrace the passing offense, which ranked 22nd last season.”

Kansas City fans weren’t happy about that and I admit that I was wrong. While the passing offense was not a strength when compared to other NFL teams it was actually the strength of this offense. I don’t think a lot of people would have guessed the Chiefs would finish 30th in rushing attempts, 32nd in rushing yards, 31st in yards per carry, and tied for 31st in rushing touchdowns.

Part of that was losing Larry Johnson. When he is healthy he is among the best backs in all of football. Remember though that he is going to be 29 and had 5 games where he was held under 60 yards in 2007.

The Chiefs did a horrible job of preparing for life without Roaf and Shields and now they have a line that cannot control the line of scrimmage. Their inability to block is hampering the running game. They can’t get their quarterbacks into favorable 3rd down situations. When you combine those problems with Herm Edwards conservative offense it has created a situation where this team can’t score any points.

The Chiefs tried to address that by drafting Albert. He is going to take a couple seasons for him to develop. He may be moving from guard to tackle, which is a very difficult transition for any player, much less a rookie. The Chiefs still have a lot of questions on the offensive line.

It’s hard to predict the offense is going to step up when you don’t even know which bad quarterback is going to emerge. Huard played bad last year and Croyle played worse. Croyle is whom they want to start, as he was a 3rd round pick in 2006. There gets to be a point where you cease to be a young quarterback and become a bad quarterback instead. Year 3 is the year that the NFL brain trust identifies as the year that young quarterbacks should start to see things slow down and be able to make plays. If he doesn’t emerge the Chiefs are going to have to think about taking a quarterback in the first round next year. Damon Huard is going to be 35 years old and not the quarterback you want to build a young team around.

Prediction: I thought the Chiefs had a great draft. In my opinion it was the best in the NFL. That said, I also maintain the Colts and Patriots could have had the best draft in the NFL had they traded Brady or Manning. The only reason the Chiefs had the best draft is they traded their best player in Jared Allen. While that may turn out to be a great move for the future, it doesn’t necessarily translate into winning a lot of games the following year.

The Chiefs just don’t have a lot of good things going for them now. They used to have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They don’t anymore. Johnson used to be the second best back in football. He is barely a top 10 back right now. Croyle and Huard are below average quarterbacks. The defense is rebuilding. This is a team in transition.

I look for Gonzalez and Bowe to have good seasons. I think Johnson will have a rebound year. Not like what we saw in 2005 and 2006, but 1,000 to 1,100 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. But what gains they make on offense are going to be offset by a rebuilding defense that lost its best player. If they had Baltimore’s schedule I wouldn’t pick them to win more than 3 games. The lack of strength in their division and their relatively easy schedule should get them to 5 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs’ Record: 5-11 – AFC West 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

What an incredible weekend of football.  The Patriots moved to within one game of a perfect season.  Meanwhile the Giants and Packers played only the 2nd OT Championship Game in the history of the NFC playoffs.  It was an epic win by the Giants that will be played on NFL Classic Films for years to come.  Here is my recap of the Championship Round:

Scores:    New England (17-0) 21 San Diego (13-5) 12

                  NY Giants 23 (12-6) Green Bay (14-3) 20 OT  
                  
               

On Deck:  

Super Bowl Sunday: NY Giants (13-6) vs. New England Patriots (18-0)
                  
MVP of the Week:  The MVP for the Patriots had to be Laurence Maroney.  Tom Brady did not play his best game of the season.  In fact he played his worst.  He did have 2 big touchdown throws, but also had 3 interceptions and only 209 yards passing.   Maroney had 25 carries for 122 yards and 1 touchdown and helped carry the Patriot offense.  On the Giants it was the combination of Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress.  Manning was 21 for 40 for 254 yards and Burress had 11 catches for 154 yards.  Those two were instrumental in maintaining offensive balance and controlling the clock for 40:00. 

Game of the Week:  Hard to go against the second OT game in the NFC since 1970.  That game had so many emotional highs and lows.  The Giants had stopped the Packers in the 3rd quarter, but Sam Madison was hit with a personal foul penalty.  That led to a Favre TD pass to Donald Lee, which gave the Packers a 17-13 lead.  The Giants went right back down the field and scored another touchdown.   Brett Favre threw the first of his two interceptions deep in Giants territory, but the ball was fumbled and recovered by Mark Tauscher.  That led to a field goal that tied the game at 20-20.  Tynes went on to miss two field goals from 43 yards and 36 yards, which would have sent the Giants to the Super Bowl.  The Packers won the toss, but Brett Favre made a poor throw on his first throw in OT that resulted in a Webster pick and set up the Giants for the game winning 47 yard field goal, the first 40 yard plus field goal made by an opposing player in the postseason history of the Green Bay Packers.  This game will probably go down as one of the greatest Championship Games ever played, especially if the Giants can do the unthinkable and beat the Patriots in two weeks. 

Loser of the Weak:  Again, I hate to label people as losers because they didn’t perform as well as they and their fans would hope in the Championship Game.  I think all 4 teams should be very proud of the effort they put into the games considering the stakes and the elements.  All 4 teams had tremendous seasons.  On the AFC side, I would say the Chargers offense failed the Chargers in key moments of that game.  They kicked 3 field goals from 26 yards or less.  Those were points left on the field that they could have used later in the game.  If you are going to beat the Patriots, you have to score touchdowns.  On the NFC side Ryan Grant had a very disappointing effort.  After rushing for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns last week he was held to 13 carries for 29 yards and 0 touchdowns.  Greg Jennings had 1 catch for 14 yards.  That was way off his season averages.  Also Brett Favre made the key mistake in the OT and threw a very critical interception that set the Giants up for the game winning field goal. 

The Bay of Pigs:  Both games were played at a very high level and are not undeserving of such a title.

The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I think the coach that struggled the most with the Championship Experience was Mike McCarthy.  The biggest complaint I had with Packers is that they only ran the ball to Ryan Grant 13 times.  Similar to the Cowboys last week the Packers became very one dimensional in the second half.  Getting away from the run eliminated their play action passing and short passing game.  It’s hard to stay with something that is only gaining one yard, as it feels like a wasted play.  Again, the problem is that the Giants were able to concentrate on the screens and the short passes, because there was no commitment to the running game.  Hindsight is 20-20 and it is hard to argue with putting the game in the hands of your Hall of Fame QB.  I think the Packers should have found a way to have better balance in the second half and part of their struggles was too many passing plays. 

Hospital Visit:  The biggest injury of the weekend was the one to LT.  He was only able to carry the ball a couple times before leaving the game.  Gates was also a non factor with his 2 catches for 17 yards.  The Chargers could have used those playmakers when they settled for 3 field goals from 26 yards or less.  Phillip Rivers will need knee surgery, but anticipates being ready for training camp.  Otherwise the winners have two weeks to recover from the bitter cold.

Coaching Carousel:  First, Tony Dungy announced that he was coming back to the Colts for 2008.  John Harbaugh, the older brother of Jim Harbaugh was hired awa from the Eagles staff to be the headman of the Ravens.  He is a surprising hire, but that isn’t a bad thing.  I don’t think too many people predicted big things from Mike McCarthy when he was hired.  That leaves the Atlanta and Washington positions still vacant. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was: 

1) The Patriots show why they are the best team in the NFL – Here is why the Patriots are by far the best team in the NFL.  Tom Brady played arguably his worst game of the season in the AFC Championship Game.  He was 22 for 33 for 209 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.  He had a QB rating of 66.4 or almost half of his season total.  Furthermore Randy Moss had 1 catch for 18 yards and 1 rush for 14 yards.  Yet the Patriots were able to win the game.  Maroney is able to top the 100-yard rushing mark.  The Patriots defense holds the Chargers to 4 field goals, 3 of which were attempts of 26 yards or less.  That is the difference between the Patriots and the rest of the teams in the NFL.  I am not taking anything away from Tom Brady.  He had arguably the best regular season in the history of the NFL for any position.  He is a first Ballot Hall of Famer.  He is in the conversation for best QB of all time.  He made plays when the Patriots needed them.  But the difference between the Patriots and the rest of the league is that when he plays a bad game the rest of the team can find ways to come to the rescue.  Brett Favre did not have a bad game on Sunday.  You could argue before the pick he played a better game than Brady.  Both were very average considering their Hall of Fame status.  But when #4 plays average, the Packers don’t have a very good shot of winning.  When Favre plays well, Ryan Grant can have 201 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns.  But the key is that #4 is at his best.  Grant hasn’t proven he can carry the offense when Favre is struggling.  Maroney was able to do that with Brady struggling, which is amazing.  The same can be said for Peyton Manning.  Addai is a great running back, but he needs Manning to play well for him to play well.  When Tom Brady doesn’t play well (which isn’t often) the Patriots are the best in the league at finding other ways to win in spite of that.  One hundred yard rushers and an all-pro defense materialize to save the day.  That is why the Patriots are in the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years.  That is why they are going for the first undefeated season since 1972. 

2) The Giants dominated the time of possession – The biggest thing the Giants did in that game was they controlled the time of possession.   The Giants defense didn’t put up gaudy sack numbers or tackle numbers.  What they did is they found a way to control the clock.  The Giants had the ball 40:01 to 22:34.  They did that by running the ball 39 times for 134 yards as opposed to the Packers 14 rushes for 28 yards.  The Giants were 6-16 on 3rd down.  They only lost one fumble and didn’t throw an interception.  I take back all the bad things I said about Eli Manning.  I have never seen someone play so bad the first 15 weeks of the season and suddenly materialize into a quality QB that can win big games in big spots.  I never saw that coming and he deserves credit for that.  Tiki Barber is looking pretty foolish right now, as are a lot of media people.  Did the Giants play perfect?  No.  Sam Madison had a very costly personal foul penalty and the holding penalty that wiped out a Bradshaw touchdown was huge.  What the Giants did do is use their running game and smart passing game to control field position and time of possession.  The Giants were constantly playing from their 40 yard line and out and the Packers were near their own 20 and in the entire second half.  The Packers two touchdowns came on a 90- yard pass and field position that was set up on a solid return and the Madison penalty.  Otherwise the Packers were consistently 3rd and out in the second half.  That control kept the Packers defense on the field and Brett Favre off it.  That led to an unbreakable cycle of a tired Packer defense and a lethargic Packer offense.  That dominance was huge in the Giants pulling off the upset.

3) The Chargers defense came up big – I did not think the Chargers would be able to pick Brady off three times.  I was not seeing the pressure they were able to put on the Patriots.  While the weather and conditions also helped limit the Patriots offense, the nice pass rush had a lot to do with that too.  The Chargers were playing with a short deck.  LT was hurt and carried the ball only twice.  Gates was slowed.  Rivers was limited.  The only way the Chargers were going to stay in that game was for the defense to come up with their best game of the season.  Given the quality of the Patriots offense, the state of the Chargers offense, and what was at stake I think the Chargers did just that.  This team has nothing to hang their heads about.  Coming into this year this group of Chargers were 0-2 in the playoffs with two home losses.  They were able to beat a talented Titans team at home and go on the road and beat a heavily favored Colts team.  This postseason success was a big step for them.  While they have to be disappointed they are not in the Super Bowl, the better team won on Sunday.  Credit the Chargers for playing through some tough injuries and with making big strides this season.  Hopefully for them they will be able to build on that run for next season.

4) The Packers have nothing to hang their heads about – Being a Packer fan, I was as disappointed as anyone.  I thought the game set up as an excellent opportunity for the Packers to go to the Super Bowl.  I thought they would win by a sizeable margin, but by no means thought the win was guaranteed.  I think the Packers and their fans should hold their heads high.  The Packers were expected to be 6-10 to 8-8 at the beginning of the year.  I think in September a loss in the NFC Championship Game would have been pretty appealing to everyone.  This team was the youngest in the league and 2/3 of their roster and their coaching staff had zero playoff experience.  They were able to win a home playoff game and they lost an epic playoff game.  In 2003 I had the emptiest feeling in the world after the Eagles game.  The Packers were a 4th and 26 away from the NFC title game.  They allowed Freddie Mitchell to convert that.  That is inexcusable and I don’t think I was ever as upset about a loss as I was with that debacle.  That team had a lot of veteran players and that loss was inexcusable given the circumstances in that game.  Sunday was not about effort or mental breakdowns; it was about execution.  They made their share of mistakes and didn’t deserve to win the game.  But that team left everything on the field.  They made some good plays and some bad plays and some weeks that wins games.  The Packers didn’t play their worst game of the season on Sunday, not even close.  But they didn’t play their best on a day they needed too.  While it is frustrating as a fan that they will not be playing in the Super Bowl it was as enjoyable of a season as I have ever watched and hopes are sky high as long as….

5) The future for Brett Favre – Now that the Packers season is done the annual winter question in Wisconsin is here again, did we witness Brett Favre’s last game?  I have heard a lot of people blaming him for the loss.  While his mistake was huge, they wouldn’t have been in the game without him.  Show me a QB that can have the game tied at 20-20 despite being on the field 20 minutes to the opponents 40 minutes?  Despite 28 yards rushing and 14 receiving yards from Jennings he brought them back from down 6-0 to take a 10-6 lead.  He brought them back from 13-10 to take a 17-13 lead.   Then he helped tied the game at 20-20.  While his pick was instrumental and he was far from perfect, he didn’t have a lot of teammates step up to the occasion.  I’m not excusing him from the pick.  It was his fault and it was as costly as the other mistakes.  He can’t let that happen.  But it is hard to go it alone in the ultimate team game and he deserves better than what people are writing about him.  He was not a choke artist.  Brett did talk a little about retirement after the loss.  He said that his decision would probably take a couple weeks and that he wouldn’t try to let the team hanging.  He said that this game would not affect his decision one way or another.  Brett Favre has been my favorite athlete since I began watching him in 1992.  Him retiring is a day that I do not want to ever come.  However, that game should not influence his decision.  Only one team can win the Super Bowl each year.  The chance to retire a champion is incredibly difficult.  Montana didn’t do it.  Neither did Aikman, Bradshaw, Marino, Unitas, or Young.  Elway and Bettis are the exception, not the rule.  On the one hand the Packers have the youngest team in the league.  There is a chance they could compete for the Super Bowl next season.  However, look at the 06 Bears and Saints.  They were both in the title game last season and both were 7-9 this year.  There is no guarantee that you get better, just because you are young and went deep in the playoffs the year before.  You start at preseason in 08, not the title game.  Each season is different, the schedule is different, the chemistry is different, and the injuries are different.  It would be a mistake for Brett Favre to come back simply because the team is young and should be improved.  There is no shame in retiring with the season he had and the last game he played.  It sure looks a lot better than retiring after a 4-12 2005 season.  However, he shouldn’t feel that he couldn’t come back because the team might not go as far next season.  If he still feels the fire to compete, he should compete.  If the game still brings him enjoyment he should continue to enjoy what he enjoys most.  I think too many people get caught up in retiring with a legacy in tact or retiring as a Champion.  I don’t think athletes play for that as much as they enjoy the competition.  I hope that we see Brett competing at a high level in 2008, but if he decides he has given all he has to give, I am fine with that.  He has given Packer fans an amazing 16-year run.  Packer fans could not have asked for more and he deserves to go out on his terms.  He doesn’t need to be rushed out the door, but he shouldn’t feel he has to win another Super Bowl to validate his legacy.  While he didn’t play his best game on Sunday, thank you for an incredible season that few people thought was possible.

A Look Ahead:  I’m not going to preview the biggest game of the season in a few paragraphs as I did for the 5 most important games of the regular season.  Check back to my blog for a preview of the big game as well as some other NFL articles.  I look forward to reading your comments.

 

What a great weekend of NFL football.  While not all the games were close there was at least intrigue in all 4 of the contest.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh definatley stole the show and gave us a game for the ages.  Here is my recap of the Wild Card Weekend:

Scores:  Seattle (10-6) 35  Washington (9-7) 14
                Jacksonville (11-5) 31 Pittsburgh (10-6) 29
                NY Giants (10-6) 24 Tampa Bay (9-7) 14
                San Diego (11-5) 17 Tennessee (10-6) 6

On Deck:   

Saturday:  Seattle (11-6) at Green Bay (13-3)
                   Jacksonville (12-5) at New England 16-0)

Sunday:   San Diego (12-5) at Indianapolis (13-3)
                  NY Giants (11-6) at Dallas (13-3) 

MVP of the Week:  The best performance of the wild card weekend was Maurice Jones-Drew.  While he only had 8 rushes for 29 yards, he had a rushing touchdown, a 43 yard receiving touchdown, and a 96 yard kickoff return that spotted the ball at the Pittsburgh 1 yard line.  The result was a Fred Taylor rushing touchdown on the very next play.  Jacksonville would need all of those big plays in their 31-29 victory. 

Game of the Week:  I think the Jacksonville victory over Pittsburgh victory was not only the best game of the weekend, but was an all time classic.  Pittsburgh scored a touchdown on their first possession to take a 7-0 lead, but Jacksonville raced out to 28-10 lead through 3 quarters.  Pittsburgh scored 19 unanswered points to take a 29-28 lead with 6:21 left in the game.  Garrard’s 32 yard run on 4th and 2 was as good of a play in a clutch moment as you will ever see.   It put Jacksonville in chip shot field goal range.  Jacksonville depleted Pittsburgh of both time and timeouts and kicked the go ahead field goal with just 37 seconds to play. 

Loser of the Weak:  Basically every team that lost has someone to blame.  Even though Big Ben redeemed himself with a terrific second half, his 3 first half interceptions were crucial in the Steelers demise.  Todd Collins, Clinton Portis, and Santana Moss were far from impressive in the 35-14 defeat to the Seahawks.  The Redskins were shutout for the first 3 quarters.  Portis was held to 52 yards on just 20 carries.  While Collins was able to throw four 4th quarter TDs two of them were to Seahawk defenders.   One of those was on a ball that Santana Moss quit on.  For Tampa Bay the disappointing thing had to be that Eli Manning went 20 for 27 with 2 touchdowns and 0 picks against the number one ranked pass defense.  Finally, Tennessee was only able to manage 2 field goals and 138 yards passing in their 17-6 loss to San Diego.

The Bay of Pigs:  This one is pretty easy as well.  I would go with Tennessee at San Diego.  The Titans led the first half 6-0 before the Chargers got their act together and scored 17 second half points to clinch the victory.  Tomlinson was held to 42 yards rushing in that game and Vince Young was held to 138 yards passing with one pick in his playoff debut.  He will benefit from this experience in just his 2nd year in the league. 

The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): The glaring bad decision was Mike Tomlin deciding to chase the score in the second half.  While I understand the temptation to make the game 25-28 instead of 24-28, once the holding penalty was called he should have kicked the extra point.  The chances of converting a two point conversion from the 13 yard line against a defense of Jacksonville’s caliber are slim to none and there was still 10:25 left in the 4th quarter.  The result was that when the Steelers scored again with 6:21 left in the game, they had to go for 2 points to make it a 3 point lead.  The second missed conversion created the difference in the game.  The game could have gone differently had Tomlin chose the other option.  Jacksonville could have gone for the TD at the end of the game instead of the field goal had the score been 31-28.  Furthermore Pittsburgh’s main reason for defeat was the 3 first half interceptions.   Still while going for the two point conversion from the 3 yard line was a debatable Monday Morning QB type play.  Going for it from the 13 yard line was not a very smart decision. 

Hospital Visit:  The big injury of the weekend was the toe injury to Antonio Gates.  He is in the doubtful to questionable range for next week’s showdown with the Indianapolis Colts.  The big question in the NFC is how healthy will TO be after 3 weeks of rest and what impact will that have on the divisional re rematch between the Giants and Cowboys. 

Coaching Carousel:  There were a few more changes since my last letter.  Cam Cameron was let go by the Miami Dolphins.  That is not a real big surprise.  Joe Gibbs resigned today which was somewhat of surprise.  He is definatley one of the classiest and succesful coaches this league has ever seen.  That leaves the total coaching vacancies at four (Atlanta, Baltimore,  Miami, and Washington).  Places to keep an eye on are Oakland, Seattle, and Tampa Bay.  Lane Kiffin had wanted to hire a new defensive coordinator to replace Rob Ryan, but was overruled by Al Davis.  It remains to be seen if that difference of opinion evolves into a volatile situation between Head Coach and Ownership.  Mike Holmgren has job security, but it has been speculated that he may want to take a year or two off.  This is very similar to the Bill Cowher situation last year.  Finally, Jon Gruden is entering the last year of his contract.  It remains to be seen if he can work out an extension or if he wants to come back as a lame duck coach.   

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was: 

1) Enough with the Eli Manning breakout game – As a person that has been very critical of the way Eli Manning played this year I have no problem saying that he surprised me with the poise he played with in the victory over Tampa Bay.  He deserves credit for playing composed football against a very tough defense that was number one in the NFL in pass yards allowed.  The Giants would not have won that game without Eli’s smart and consistent play.  That being said, I am getting annoyed with this being labeled as his breakout game or the game that validates his status as the franchise QB of the NY Giants.  Eli was 20 for 27 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns against 0 picks.  I’m sorry, but beating 9-7 Tampa Bay with those numbers isn’t a breakout game.  If that was Vince Young’s line in his first playoff game against the Chargers I would be very impressed.  This is a former number one overall pick and 4th year QB in his 3rd full year of starting.  This was his 3rd playoff game not his first.  Why is the bar set so low for this guy?  The fact that we are amazed that he completed passes with none of them being to the other team shows me just how awful this number one overall pick has been up to this point.  Brett Favre went 15 for 26 for 204 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick, including the game winning touchdown to Sterling Sharpe in his first playoff game.  Dan Marino was 21 for 32 for 421 yards with 4 touchdown and a pick in his 3rd playoff game to advance to the Super Bowl.  Joe Montana and Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in their 3rd postseason start.  While Petyon Manning struggled in his first 3 playoff starts he also had much stronger regular season numbers than Eli and had 5 touchdown passes in his 4th start.  All I ask is keep it in perspective.  It was a mostly mistake free game by a guy that has underachieved up to this point.  While it was a great win, 185 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Buccaneers is not validation that Eli Manning has arrived as a premier QB for the NY Giants or in the NFL. 

2) Momentum means something unless it doesn’t mean anything – It is interesting just how much or how little momentum means.  The Jaguars lost by 2 touchdowns to Houston by sitting most of their key guys, but still managed to play a great playoff game.  The NY Giants played all their guys in a meaningless game against the New England Patriots while Tampa rested their starters for 3 weeks hoping to be healthy.  New York appeared to be the sharper team.  However, Seattle rested their starters against Atlanta losing 44-41 in their season finale and played a team in the Washington Redskins that had won 4 straight games entering the postseason.  The result was a 35-14 victory for Seattle.  What it shows is that these playoff games are decided more by big plays, individual efforts, and unit matchups than they are by momentum heading into the playoffs.  Coaches are in a no win dilemma.  If they rest their guys to close the season and they lose their first playoff game the team was rusty.  If they play their guys in the season finale and lose in the first round their guys were tired and worn out.  Coaches have to have a pulse on their team and know what is best for them in that situation.  As long as a coach stays true to his philosophy and best interest of the team he knows he put his team in the best possible situation to win.

3) How important is playing impressive in the Wild Card Round – I always get a kick out of this.  Now that Seattle and New York dominated Washington and Tampa Bay everyone is speculating that these teams have an excellent shot of going into Green Bay or Dallas and keeping their dreams alive.   Because Jacksonville won a thriller in Pittsburgh they are primed to upset New England.  Because Dallas, Green Bay, Indy, and New England didn’t play this week they did nothing to improve their stock.  Meanwhile Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Diego, and Seattle all won which improves their resume.  Combine that with a three touchdown victory like Seattle had against Washington and they look primed to pull the upset in the next round.  The fact of the matter is that while it is always nice to win and win big in that opening round the Wild Card teams really don’t have a great shot of advancing past the Divisional Round.  In the last 10 years the home team is 30-10 in the Divisional Round.  Three of those 10 years the home teams swept the Divisional Round (1998, 2002, and 2004).  Only 3 times in that 10 year span did road teams as a whole manage to play .500 in the Divisional Round (2003, 2005, & 2006).   The reason for 2005 and 2006 is the top heavy nature of the AFC.  Furthermore, it doesn’t seem to matter if a team wins dramatically or wins decisively.  Take the 2002 Jets who opened the playoffs with a 41-0 stomping of the Indianapolis Colts in New York.  They followed up that great performance with a 30-10 loss at Oakland.  The 2003 Indianapolis Colts beat the Broncos 41-10 in Indy only to lose to the Patriots 20-3 the following week in New England.  The 2004 Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 31-17 in Green Bay only to travel to Philly and lose 27-14 the following week.  Even a dramatic victory doesn’t seem to help.  The 2003 Packers beat Seattle 33-27 in OT on an Al Harris interception only to lose the next week 20-17 in OT when they failed to stop a 4th and 26 with a 3 point lead late in the 4th quarter.   The fact is that most seasons the four top seeds have proven to be the more superior and consistent teams over the course of the 16 game season.  I believe that is especially the case this season.  That superiority combined with the week of rest will usually benefit them in these divisional round match ups.   While the 1997 Broncos and 2005 Steelers are great examples of teams coming together at the end of the season as wildcards what history shows us is that there is a better chance of one or none of the top seeds falling this weekend.

4) It is very difficult to win a playoff game – In any given year the most teams that can win just one playoff game is 8 (4 wildcard winners followed by 4-0 for the first round bye teams) and the least is 4 (assuming all 4 wild card teams won in the first and second rounds).  Fans, players, coaches, and management expect to win playoff games every season.  While the expectation is that your team should win a playoff game every year, the reality is that it is much harder than that.  Only 22 of the 32 NFL teams have won a playoff game this decade.   Prior to this weekend it was 20 out of 32.  That is amazing to me that with as much parity as there is in the NFL that there are that many franchises that have been unable to win a playoff game this decade.  As good as San Diego has been in recent years their playoff win on Sunday was their first since 1994.  The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996.  Jacksonville won their first playoff game on Saturday since 1999.  It isn’t just the Bengals and Cardinals that struggle to win playoff games although their struggle to win playoff games stems from their inability to reach the postseason.  Regardless, teams can not have a “Well there is always next year” mentality.  These opportunities are very scare and do not come along very often no matter how good the roster.  Age, injuries, coaching changes, and free agency can close a window of opportunity very quickly. 

A Look Ahead:  During the season I picked what I viewed were the 5 most important games of the schedule.  For the playoffs I am doing all the games as they obviously are all important.  I went 3-1 last weekend with my only slip up being the Tampa Bay and NY Giant game.  This is how I see the 4 games going this weekend. 

1) Seattle (11-6) at Green Bay (13-3) – These teams last playoff meeting was in 2003 when Al Harris returned an interception for a touchdown in OT to win the game.  That win was the last playoff win for the Green Bay Packers.  These two teams boast very talented and deep receiving cores.  They like to spread out the defense and hit a variety of different targets.  There are a couple keys that I see right of the bat.  Green Bay was 7-1 at home this season while Seattle was 3-5 on the road.  Seattle was outscored 176-180 on the road this season and their only win in double figures was a 23-3 Week 4 victory over San Fran.   They struggle without the lift they get from the 12th Man.  The two keys to this game are stopping the receiving cores from getting a lot of yards after the catch and not letting Ryan Grant or Shaun Alexander add balance to the offense.  Whoever does better with that should win.  I think Grant is playing better than Alexander, I like the Packers receivers better, and I like how Green Bay plays at home while I am not sold on Seattle on the road.  I look for Green Bay to win a competitive game.  Winner:  Green Bay 31 Seattle 24

2) Jacksonville (12-5) at New England (16-0) – This is probably the worst possible matchup the Patriots could have drawn in the Divisional Playoff Round.  On paper Jacksonville has everything you need to beat New England.  A defense that can slow down New England and a great running game to control the clock and keep Brady and Moss off the field.  However, Big Ben was able to pass Pittsburgh back into a game the Steelers trailed 28-10.  If Jacksonville wants to beat New England they are going to have to play 60 minutes of football not 45 minutes.  The best thing that could happen for Jacksonville would be for the weather to be like it was for the Packers at Chicago back in December.  The windier, colder, and nastier the weather is the better Jacksonville’s chances.  That seems funny seeing the Jags reside is sunny Florida and New England is used to these bad weather contest.  However, when you look at the Miami and NY Jet scores and how different these teams are in offensive style, weather could be a big factor.  I still like New England.  They were my preseason pick to win the AFC and have done nothing to change my mind.  While I wouldn’t be shocked if Jacksonville won, I don’t think they will score enough to keep up with New England.  Winner: New England 35 Jacksonville 24

3) San Diego (12-5) at Indianapolis (13-3) – I think this will be the most lopsided game of the weekend.  The Chargers needed a gift to beat Indy earlier in the season despite 6 Peyton Manning interceptions.  I don’t see Peyton repeating that performance especially at home.  While San Diego was 4-4 on the road it was because of that excuse for a division known as the AFC West.  San Diego was 3-0 on the road against the AFC West and 1-4 outside of the division.  The Chargers struggled to score against the Titans.  Statistically the Colts are a better defense and have an offense that actually helps them.  When you combine that with Gates probably missing this game it starts to look ugly for San Diego.  The Colts will be able to put 8 in The Box to contain LT and should be able to cover the Charger receivers down field without the threat of Gates over the middle.  Manning has struggled against the 3-4 in the past but I think that speaks more to how good the Steelers and Patriots have been on defense than problems with that particular scheme.  He should make enough plays to win this game.  Winner: Indianapolis 33 San Diego 10

4) NY Giants (11-6) at Dallas (13-3) – The NY Giants are an interesting team in this spot.  For one they play their best football on the road as they are 8-1 at home as opposed to 4-4 at home.  They played well in a loss to New England in the season finale and used that game to springboard them to a victory over Tampa Bay.  Furthermore, even though their one road loss was at Dallas, Eli Manning probably played his best game of the year there.  As usual the key for the Giants will be that Eli plays well.  On the Dallas side it is still uncertain whether TO will play and at what percent he will be operating.  That is critical in deciding this contest.  The old saying is that it is hard to beat a team 3 times in one season.  It should be an old saying, because it hasn’t happened much in recent history.  Since the 1970 merger there has been 17 occasions where teams met for a 3rd time in the same season where one of the teams had gone 2-0 on the regular season.  13 of those 17 occasions have occurred since 1990 when the league expanded to the 6 team playoff format.  The 2-0 team is 11-6 overall and 9-4 since 1990.  The saying should be it is hard to beat a team you have already lost to twice.  When you look at those 4 occasions where the 0-2 team won since 1990:  3 of the 4 times the 2-0 team won a blowout in the opener and a 7 point game or less late in the season.  In 2004 Green Bay beat Minnesota 34-31 on game winning field goals before beating Green Bay in the postseason.  The NY Giants played well but ultimately lost by double digits to Dallas in both contests.  As I stated above TO’s health is going to be huge.  He had 9 catches for 212 yards and 4 touchdowns in the two Dallas wins.  The Cowboys need his production to open up the field for other weapons and come out ahead in this game.  Given his history of being a quick healer, I expect TO to be ready and to play well.  Winner:  Dallas 28 NY Giants 20

There you have it.  Not really going out on a limb as I think the higher seeds will win all four contest.  I have thought these 4 teams were head and shoulders above the rest of the league all season.  No sense in changing my position on that now.  In addition to my Newsletter this week I am going to look at handicapping the Patriots chances of going 19-0 by looking at the biggest factor for predicting postseason success that you really don’t hear about that much.  I look forward to reading your comments as always.

Here is a rundown of the six AFC playoff teams. I also compiled a similar report for the NFC playoff teams. Check it out at

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/StreetCred/20
08/01/02/2007_NFC_Playoff_Preview2

Team: New England Patriots

Seed: AFC #1

Quick Stats:

1) W/L Record: 16-0
2) Points Scored: 36.8 / game (1st)
3) Points Allowed: 17.1 / game (4th)
4) Yards Gained: 411.2 / game (1st)
5) Yards Allowed: 288.3 / game (4th)

Strengths: I could write a page worth of strengths for this team. 1) They have the best Head Coach in the NFL, 2) They have the best QB in the NFL, 3) They have the best WR in the NFL, and 4) They are exceptionally gifted in the other areas of football. This team is in the top 5 in the 4 major statistical areas and winning games by 19.7 / points per game. It’s hard to find a weakness for the first undefeated regular season since the 1972 Dolphins.

Weaknesses: There are many places to look at