This is my seventh of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The AFC West was probably the most disappointing division in 2007. The AFC West combined to go 10-22 on the road. The AFC West had a combined 14-26 record out of division. The Chargers were expected to compete for the Super Bowl after going 14-2 in 2006. They started 5-5, before winning their last 6 games to close the season and advance to the AFC Championship Game. The Denver Broncos were a big player in free agency and were supposed to compete with the Chargers for the division. They were a very disappointing 7-9. The Chiefs were going through a youth moment and while making the playoffs again was not necessarily expected, they fell from 9-7 to 4-12. Finally, you have the Raiders who actually exceeded many people’s expectations, but just didn’t have enough talent to win more than 4 games.

The AFC West has been owned by the San Diego Chargers the last couple seasons. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC West.

1) San Diego Chargers

07 Record: 11-5

Points Scored: 412(5th)

Points Allowed: 284 (5th)

Playoff Result: Lost AFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 108-148 (.422) (31st in NFL)

Strengths: The Chargers have done an excellent job in recent years drafting players and the result is a team that has a lot of strengths. They used those to advance to the AFC Championship Game, despite the injuries they had to Rivers, LT, and Gates. It was a very inspiring effort that they should be applauded for. Therefore, the Chargers had the luxury of not having to be active in free agency and being able to use their draft picks to sure up depth.

Let’s start with the defense, which was the strength of the 2007 season. The Chargers terrorized quarterbacks in 2007. They ranked 5th in sacks with 42. Shawne Merriman has become a premier pass rusher. Many people thought he had a down year and he still recorded 12.5 sacks. Shaun Phillips had 8.5 sacks and flies under the radar with Merriman grabbing most of the attention. Stephen Cooper is going to have to sit the first four games of the NFL season, which does not help an inside linebacker position that is not the strength of the defense to begin with.

The Chargers ranked 1st in quarterback rating allowed at 70.0. Their high number of interceptions drove that. They had a league best 30 interceptions, 8 more than the second place teams Indianapolis and Tennessee. To put that in perspective, 14 interceptions, which are 8 less than Indy and Tennessee ranked 23rd in the NFL. The Chargers were in a class by themselves. Antonio Cromartie had a lot to do with that as he recorded a league best 10 interceptions despite only starting eight games. Antoine Cason was added to the defensive backs as a first round pick and should help the Chargers nickel and dime packages. You can never have enough defensive backs in a playoff game against the Colts and Patriots.

On offense, LT didn’t have a record setting year, but he still was amazing. He managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,474 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and a league best 15 rushing touchdowns. That speaks to how well the Chargers offensive line played, especially in the second half of the season. Gates was also great last season. He had 984 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. The interesting thing to watch will be how Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson do now that they have a full year together. Jackson came close, but failed to record a 100-yard game in 2007. He had no multi touchdown games. Chris Chambers did neither of those things in his Charger career. If the Chargers are going to finally contend for the Super Bowl they need to get more production out of their wide receivers. They are receiving almost exclusively single coverage and need to make teams pay for that.

On special teams Darren Sproles is a very dangerous return man. Mike Scifres is a very solid punter and Nate Kaeding has been a mainstay among the best kickers in the league the last two seasons.

Weaknesses: The Chargers had two main weaknesses in 2008. They weren’t very solid against the run, at times. While they ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed; part of that was because Adrian Peterson recorded a 295-yard game against them. If you take that game out, they are closer to the top 10. Still, in the playoffs Maroney had 122 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Some weeks the Chargers were great against the run. Other weeks they got run over. They need to be a little more consistent in that regard.

The bigger weakness is the same thing it was entering last season with a couple wrinkles. Is Philip Rivers the real deal? He did not have a good follow up to his Pro Bowl season. He went from 3,388 yards to 3,152 yards. He went from 22 touchdowns to 21 touchdowns. He went from 9 interceptions to 15. His completion percentage went from 61.7 to 60.2. He went from a rating of 92.0 to 82.4. He just didn’t improve in any area. He also gained a reputation for being a head case and yelling at fans. That was particularly evident in the Colts playoff game. He needs to tone that down and act like a solid professional and a leader of the team. He has too much talent for people to be talking about that instead of his play.

The wrinkle in the Chargers offense is all the injuries the Chargers are coming back from this season. Tomlinson had just two carries in the AFC Championship Game and while his knee did not require surgery there are still concerns when knee injury and LT are mentioned in the same sentence. That makes the loss of Turner to the Falcons even more significant. Hester was drafted out of LSU to team with Sproles to fill that void. Gates has a toe problem that has his status for the opener in doubt. Rivers had an ACL injury that was expected to have six months of recovery time. He is hopeful for training camp.

It is never good to have one star player coming off injury. To have three injury question marks to the three best players on the offense is a huge concern. The Chargers need to hope these guys are ready by the opener. Without those three being healthy the Chargers will struggle to win even the weak AFC West.

Prediction: If the Chargers were in another division, I would have more concerns. They couldn’t have started worse in 2007. They started 1-3 and they still won the division by 4 games. The Broncos have too many issues on run defense and at their skill positions they are still not proven. The Raiders and Chiefs have too many issues to list. The Chargers have the second easiest schedule in the NFL and that will serve them well if their players are a little slow to get back into the groove. They open with Carolina, at Denver, NY Jets, at Oakland, and at Miami. That is a schedule they should be able to maneuver even if a few players are slow to get back. I could see the Chargers being a strong second half team similar to last year.

What I do think the injuries prevent the Chargers from doing is having a better record than the Jags and Patriots. If they had everyone healthy and ready to go, I probably would have had them with a better record than the Patriots. They should still win the AFC West, but still have to open up the playoffs in the first round at home and travel in the second round. Based on my predictions that would be to New England. That could make advancing to the Super Bowl a difficult task, which at this point is the only Charger obstacle not yet hurdled.

San Diego Chargers’ Record: 12-4 – AFC West Divisional Champion; AFC #3 Seed

2) Denver Broncos

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 320 (21st)

Points Allowed: 409 (28th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 114-142 (.445) (29th in NFL)

Strengths: The Broncos have a nice young nucleus of offensive players. Jay Cutler is only 25 years old. He passed for 3,497 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first full year starting. He posted an 88.1 rating. Brandon Marshall had 102 receptions for 1,325 yards. He is only 24 years old. Tony Scheffler had 549 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns at the tight end spot. He is only 25 years old. Finally, with Travis Henry gone Selvin Young looks to take over the number one spot. He turns 25 in October.

That gives the Broncos a nice nucleus of young players to grow around. They need to start getting younger on the offensive line, which they did by selecting Ryan Claddy. The Broncos zone-blocking scheme is being copied through out the league. A top 10 rushing offense is something that is taken for granted in Denver. Even with their running woes in 2007 they managed to finish 9th in yards gained on the ground.

On defense, the Broncos finished in the top 10 in passing yards allowed. That is expected when the secondary features the corner duo of Bailey and Bly. Lync h is starting to get a little older, but still supports the run well. DJ Williams is a promising young linebacker that struggled as the middle linebacker. He is expected to play full time on the weak side, which will suit his strengths much better. Boss Bailey was brought in giving the Broncos great speed at the outside linebacker spot.

Finally, there is Mike Shanahan. He has been the Broncos headman since 1995. The only coach with a longer tenure is Jeff Fisher, who replaced Jack Pardee at the end of the 1994 season. Shanahan has had only two losing seasons since he arrived in Denver. The last time he had a losing record the Broncos bounced back with 11 wins the following year.

Ted Sundquist was fired as the GM, a role he held since 2002. Mike Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings and a lot of experience. The Broncos are under pressure to win this year. They have only been in one AFC Championship Game since 1998. The Broncos are expecting that he will turn out a winner soon. If the Broncos regress in 2008, Shanahan’s job may be in jeopardy.

Weaknesses: Run defense. Plain and simple this kept the Broncos from being a playoff team in 2007. They ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed. The front 4 could not keep anyone from ramming the ball down their throat. That really hurt Bailey and Bly who anchored the 7th ranked pass defense, but had only 8 interceptions. That was 6 less than the 14 interceptions Bailey and Williams combined for in 2006. If the Broncos can stop the run better, Bailey and Bly should see their pick totals go up. If they can’t teams will keep the ball on the ground to stay away from Denver’s potent playmaker duo.

They also need to get a better pass rush from their front 4. Elvis Dumervil had 12.5 sacks. The next best individual sack total was a mere four sacks. That just isn’t going to get the job done. That is another reason Bailey and Bly didn’t excel in 2007. Defensive backs rely on pressure from the front seven to put pressure on the quarterback and force bad decisions. The Broncos didn’t go out and sign a marquee free agent on the defensive line. They have drafted a number of young defensive linemen in the past few drafts. They took the approach of hoping their younger players would improve and brining in non household name talent.

The other problem that confronted the Broncos was their redzone scoring. The Broncos ranked 11th in yards gained, 13th in passing yards gained, and 9th in rushing yards gained. The problem was that they ranked only 18th in rushing touchdowns and 16th in passing touchdowns. That produced the 21st ranked scoring offense.

The Broncos released Travis Henry due to his off the field issues and still have some good backs in place. Selvin Young ranked 3rd among rookie rushers and started only 8 games. Andre Hall showed signs of promise. Michael Pittman is a veteran that was signed to give the team some experience. One of these guys needs to emerge and the most probable candidate is Young. A good running game and a strong offense will go a long way to helping out the Broncos run defense stay off the field and playing with a lead.

Finally, this team has a glaring special teams weakness for the first time in many years. Jason Elam is no longer with the team. Matt Pratter takes his place and he has some big shoes to fill. Elam had been with the Broncos since 1993. He won many close games for the Broncos with clutch kicks last year. That was evident last year. It remains to be seen if the Broncos win some of the close games they have taken for granted for so many years or if Pratter is not up to the task.

Prediction: The Broncos are moving in the right direction. They had to take a step back by going with the young quarterback in Cutler and leaving the inconsistent experience of Jake Plummer. While that means they have missed the playoffs for two straight years, Cutler gives this team a chance to compete for the Super Bowl down the road, something they never could have done with Plummer.

The problem is that the run defense collapsed overnight. Denver went from 12th against the run in 2006 to 30th in 2007. The Broncos really haven’t done anything to fix that problem. In a division with LT, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden that is a risky proposition. All the teams in this division would love nothing more than to stay committed to the running game.

I think the Broncos will compete with the Browns and Titans for the final playoff spot. I think Cutler, Marshall, and Young will all have a big year. I also think the Broncos have to many issues with their running game. I look for the Broncos to better their 2007 record, but miss the playoffs by a game to the Browns. The Browns’ defense is nothing to write home about, but their offense is a lot more explosive.

Denver Broncos’ Record: 9-7 – AFC West 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Oakland Raiders

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 283 (23rd)

Points Allowed: 398 (26th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 112-142 (.438) (30th in NFL)

Strengths: The Raiders actually made a lot of strides in 2007. The coaching staff and players got along much better than they did in 2006. That is why it is surprising that Al Davis would be fighting with his young coach, Lane Kiffin after his first year on the job. While Al Davis is a hard owner to predict, there is no way that a reasonable owner would have expected more than 4-6 wins with the mess Kiffin took over. Kiffin had no NFL experience and was taking over a team that had scored just 168 points the year before. While 283 points scored ranked only 23rd, that was nine spots higher than 2006. The Raiders won 4 games and were competitive in 6 others. That was done without the benefit of their first round pick JaMarcus Russell. He threw only 66 passes last season. I would say Kiffin got good results out of the offense and the team in general.

The offense has the potential to be even better in 2008. Darren McFadden appears to be the real deal. He has everything you could ask for. Speed, strength, and a good running style. Don’t expect him to have the year Peterson had in 2007, simply because the Oakland line is nowhere near the Minnesota line. McFadden is signed and will be in camp on day one. He has the talent to make an immediate impact. If he is slow to start off with, don’t forget that Justin Fargas had 1,009 yards rushing last season. The Raiders have a nice backfield in place.

The Raiders tried to upgrade the receiving core by signing Javon Walker to a $55 million dollar contract. That was the theme of the Raider offseason, Just Spend Baby!!! I think Walker will upgrade the receiving core, but remember he has had 2 knee injuries since 2005, plus the Williams incident in Denver and the new Las Vegas incident where he sustained serious injuries in a robbery. Plus, I have read reports that he didn’t show up in the best of shape to Raider workouts in May, something that was a disappointment given the money Oakland threw his way. How he does in 2008 is anything but a certainty at this point.

The pass defense should be strong again. The Raiders gave up the 8th fewest passing yards in the NFL and the 4th fewest passing touchdowns. Signing Wilson away from the Giants and trading for Hall from the Raiders really gives a boost to their secondary. They lost Washington to the Ravens in a trade, but still appear to have a very strong secondary in place.

Weaknesses: The Raiders success on pass defense is somewhat of a mirage. Yes they have some good talent there. But when your team gives up the second most rushing yards in the NFL, the most yards per attempt, and the most rushing touchdowns teams aren’t going to waste their time throwing the ball. Keep in mind that teams passed the ball the second fewest times against Oakland. Even a team like Green Bay that relied heavily on the pass was able to basically rest Favre coming off an injury against the Cowboys when they played the Raiders. Favre threw the ball just 23 times in a 38-7 victory as Ryan Grant gashed them for a regular season high 29 carries and 156 yards.

If the Raiders are going to compete in this division with LT, Denver’s running system, and Larry Johnson they have to be able to stop the run. They signed Thomas Kelly to a record contract for a defensive lineman, something that was boggling to the mind. Warren Sapp is gone from the fold this year. He was clearly on the downside of his career. Still, the Raiders really didn’t address the defensive line, which is the most important part of the run defense.

On offense, the passing game is going to really struggle at times this year. Russell had only 66 attempts in 2007, so he is going to be learning on the job. I’ve already talked about Walker’s question marks. After him and Curry there isn’t a lot of proven talent at the receiving core. Zach Miller is a young emerging tight end. The first year of starting for a quarterback is always a difficult chore. With a below average receiving I expect Russell to show signs of greatness, but also struggle quite a bit.

Prediction: Things are getting better for Oakland. They are getting a young nucleus of players on offense and are starting to bring some talent in on defense. The Raiders and Jets were the most active teams in free agency and fans are going to be excited that a winning season is near.

They still have a few problems. San Diego has a young nucleus in place and is not ready to surrender the division to Oakland. Denver also has a young nucleus on offense and while they have their own troubles on defense they have better receivers, offensive line, and secondary. It is going to be hard for the Raiders to break through that in 2008.

However, I only see the Chargers window being open for a couple more seasons. Once LT turns 30 they are going to have some big question marks. Denver could be going through a coaching change if Shanahan doesn’t make it back to the playoffs. Whoever can draft the best between Kansas City and Oakland will be in an excellent position to shoot toward the top of the division in 2009 or 2010. Oakland has a head start, because the hardest thing to find is the quarterback. The Chiefs don’t look like they have found their quarterback, which is worse than the Raiders who are still determining if they have found theirs. As it stands right now though they will play teams competitive, probably win some games against the likes of Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo, Atlanta, but still hover around the 6-10 mark.

Oakland Raiders’ Record: 6-10 – AFC West 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Kansas City Chiefs

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 226 (31st)

Points Allowed: 335 (14th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 116-140 (.453) (26th in NFL)

Strengths: The Chiefs were not expected to do much after having an absolutely terrible preseason and Larry Johnson holding out until the start of the season. They started off 4-3 and looked like they might be able to compete in a division that saw San Diego and Denver struggle out of the gates. Larry Johnson would get hurt in game number eight, which they lost to the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs lost another eight games to close the season.

One thing the Chiefs had was a pretty nice pass defense last season. They finished ranked 5th in passing yards allowed. They also finished 9th in sacks. They were also 14th in points allowed. However, you can throw all that out the window, because their best defender, Jared Allen, is no longer with the team. He led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and was the team’s best defender. He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings before the draft for draft picks.

The Chiefs went with a youth movement and the result was one of the best drafts in the NFL. They should be better than 28th against the run. Glenn Dorsey is one of the best defensive tackle prospects to come out of college in a number of years and he should immediately help them in that regard. Brandon Flowers should also help the passing game from the cornerback position as he replaces Ty Law.

On offense many people expected the Chiefs to struggle through the air in 2007. The Chiefs have some good targets that put up solid numbers, despite their QB woes. Tony Gonzalez is still among the most productive tight ends in the NFL. He led all tight ends in receiving yards and had five touchdowns. Dwayne Bowe finished five yards shy of a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. He also had five touchdowns.

They are hoping that Brandon Albert can help improve the offensive line and that Jammal Charles can help give them another back to spell Larry Johnson. The Chiefs could have as many as three rookie starters (Dorsey, Albert, and Flowers) as well as Charles, tight end Brad Cottam, and safety DeJaun Morgan contributing as backups. The Chiefs are in a full blown rebuilding project.

Weaknesses: Last year I said this about Herm Edwards in my 2007 AFC West predictions, “It took Herman Edwards exactly one year to ruin this offense. After finishing in the top 5 for offensive yardage ever season of the Vermeil era and first, first, second, and sixth in points, Herman Edwards destroyed this offense. It dropped to 15th in both yards and points in his first year with most of the same players. As usual, the problem was Herm Edwards refusal to embrace the passing offense, which ranked 22nd last season.”

Kansas City fans weren’t happy about that and I admit that I was wrong. While the passing offense was not a strength when compared to other NFL teams it was actually the strength of this offense. I don’t think a lot of people would have guessed the Chiefs would finish 30th in rushing attempts, 32nd in rushing yards, 31st in yards per carry, and tied for 31st in rushing touchdowns.

Part of that was losing Larry Johnson. When he is healthy he is among the best backs in all of football. Remember though that he is going to be 29 and had 5 games where he was held under 60 yards in 2007.

The Chiefs did a horrible job of preparing for life without Roaf and Shields and now they have a line that cannot control the line of scrimmage. Their inability to block is hampering the running game. They can’t get their quarterbacks into favorable 3rd down situations. When you combine those problems with Herm Edwards conservative offense it has created a situation where this team can’t score any points.

The Chiefs tried to address that by drafting Albert. He is going to take a couple seasons for him to develop. He may be moving from guard to tackle, which is a very difficult transition for any player, much less a rookie. The Chiefs still have a lot of questions on the offensive line.

It’s hard to predict the offense is going to step up when you don’t even know which bad quarterback is going to emerge. Huard played bad last year and Croyle played worse. Croyle is whom they want to start, as he was a 3rd round pick in 2006. There gets to be a point where you cease to be a young quarterback and become a bad quarterback instead. Year 3 is the year that the NFL brain trust identifies as the year that young quarterbacks should start to see things slow down and be able to make plays. If he doesn’t emerge the Chiefs are going to have to think about taking a quarterback in the first round next year. Damon Huard is going to be 35 years old and not the quarterback you want to build a young team around.

Prediction: I thought the Chiefs had a great draft. In my opinion it was the best in the NFL. That said, I also maintain the Colts and Patriots could have had the best draft in the NFL had they traded Brady or Manning. The only reason the Chiefs had the best draft is they traded their best player in Jared Allen. While that may turn out to be a great move for the future, it doesn’t necessarily translate into winning a lot of games the following year.

The Chiefs just don’t have a lot of good things going for them now. They used to have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They don’t anymore. Johnson used to be the second best back in football. He is barely a top 10 back right now. Croyle and Huard are below average quarterbacks. The defense is rebuilding. This is a team in transition.

I look for Gonzalez and Bowe to have good seasons. I think Johnson will have a rebound year. Not like what we saw in 2005 and 2006, but 1,000 to 1,100 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. But what gains they make on offense are going to be offset by a rebuilding defense that lost its best player. If they had Baltimore’s schedule I wouldn’t pick them to win more than 3 games. The lack of strength in their division and their relatively easy schedule should get them to 5 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs’ Record: 5-11 – AFC West 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”

‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”

On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."

We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road.  Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks.  Most will not live up to expectations.  Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams.  Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes. 

We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed.  None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action.  It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust.  Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players.  It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.

Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now?  Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers.  Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player.  If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.

Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft.  I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008.  I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names.  I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super.  However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5.  22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.

The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there.  Both were selected in the 3rd round.

The position I struck out on was wide receiver.  I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round.  Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round.   That was brutal. 

Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B.  By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.

5 questions

1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right.  Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons.  Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007.  He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself.  They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball.  He was the player that could most help them do that.  By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.

The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting.  With these guys you don’t.  The draft can be very unforgiving.  Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss.  They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver. 

However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams.  The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen.  I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired.  This was a good gamble.  The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own.  This may end up going down as a win-win trade.

2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.  Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong. 

Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick.  If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.

This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy.  It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta.  It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them.  They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.

With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players.  While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.

3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long?  Absolutely.  Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later.  Both players were safe picks.  I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft.  Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling.  Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling.  There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round.  There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10. 

By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one.  If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.

4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure.  This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product.  The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition.  There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi.  Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois.  The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school.   The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him.  Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.

The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty.  While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft.  I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round.  If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble.  If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department.  At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round.  Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback.  If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.

5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy.  Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now.  He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt.  Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.

Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing.  If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend.  The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later.  Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer. 

Brohm fills two needs.  First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them.  From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense.  Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history.  That is not a good sign. 

The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out.  If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games.  If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future.  The value was good and the pick made sense.  Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.

5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.

1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen.  If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too.  That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team.  While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.

Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams.  The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season.  It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith.  At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line.  You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends. 

The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick.  It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player. 

The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft.  While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board.  He should substantially upgrade their defensive line.  Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement.  Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round.  He should help improve the secondary. 

Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2.  Jamal Charles could be a quality running back.  Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft.   I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.

The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota.  If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road.  This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.

2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year.  Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007.  Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10.   Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down.  They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State.  He is a bigger receiver.  Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end.  Finally, they added Malcom Kelly.  Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout.  Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.

On the second day they added a lot of depth.  Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly.  Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle.  They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner.  This was a major need as well. 

The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position.  Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone.  The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone.  When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot. 

Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round.  They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense.  If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.

3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft.  The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long.  Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007.  Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick.  That was good value.

In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick.  He should help on their defensive line.  Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.

The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks.  On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs.  Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round.  He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.

While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year.  They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle.  The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL.  Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line.  If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard. 

Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off.  Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength.  If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment.  Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round.  Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft.  I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick

This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad.  In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft.  They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery.  He may move to receiver. 

They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development.  Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.

5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick.  I had him rated slightly higher than Jones.  However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber.  The pick makes sense in that respect.

Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick.  That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up.  Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett. 

The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names.  The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round.  They have excellent potential to do that.  Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3.  With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.

5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.

1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver.  I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade.  Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game.  White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.

Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards.  They have to find a way to upgrade that position.  Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan.  While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver.  The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California.  I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind.  William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy.  That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.

Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft.  The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys.  Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson.  Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks.  I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be. 

I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs.  I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points.  The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves.  The Chargers have a lot of weapons.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace.  Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year. 

Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft.  In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.

2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out.  It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter.  However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect.  I thought this was a substantial reach.  Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell.  That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value. 

Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.” 

I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round.  The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith.  That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line. 

I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back.  While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect.    This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City. 

3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds.  Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion.  But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round? 

Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized.  A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner.  I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point.  The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.

Then they drafted Justin King on day two.  He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver.  All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that.  With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.

4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9.  I thought he would slip later into the first round.  But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?

The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into.  Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ.  It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.

Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson.  While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that.  Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.

Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him.  Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season.  While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2. 

The Bengals did okay in the later rounds.  Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver.  If he can stay healthy he could contribute.  Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise.  He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence.  At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp. 

While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out.  If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft.  I don’t think they did much after that.  I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008.  Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.

5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out?  I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots.  I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft. 

I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans.  But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress.  He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.

I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10.  Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft.  Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round.  I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round.  I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo.  All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.

Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round.  Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions.  Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly.  When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.

The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years.  Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right.  They selected linebacker depth and special teams help.  Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell. 

Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo.   I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson.  You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft.  That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.

That is my draft recap.  Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May.  Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.

 

New England became the first team in the 2007 season to clinch a playoff birth.  They are now the 2007AFC East Champions.  Green Bay and Dallas both took care of business to set up the first matchup of 10-1 teams since 1990.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and Miami are still sliding around in the mud in utter futility.  However, we were all reminded that this is just a game.  In a very sad development, Sean Taylor passed away from a gunshot wound to his leg that he suffered during an alleged burglary on Monday.  He was just 24 years old.  If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game.  It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter.  Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it.  I hereby present to you a recap of the twelfth week in the National Football League. 

Standings 

 AFC East                                NFC East
1.New England (11-0)*        1.Dallas (10-1)
2.Buffalo (5-6)                        2.NY Giants (7-4)
3.NY Jets (2-9)                      3.Washington (5-6)
4. Miami (0-11)                      4.Philadelphia (5-6) 

AFC South                              NFC South
1.Indianapolis (9-2)               1. Tampa Bay (7-4)
2. Jacksonville (8-3)              2. New Orleans (5-6)
3. Tennessee (6-5)               3. Carolina (4-7)
4. Houston (5-6)                    4. Atlanta (3-8)

 AFC North                              NFC North
1.Pittsburgh (8-3)                 1.Green Bay (10-1)
2.Cleveland (7-4)                 2.Detroit (6-5)
3.Cincinnati (4-7)                 3. Minnesota (5-6)
4.Baltimore (4-7)                   4.Chicago (5-6)

 AFC West                             NFC West
1. San Diego (6-5)                1. Seattle (7-4)
2. Denver (5-6)                      2.Arizona (5-6)
3. Kansas City (4-7)             3. San Francisco (3-8)
4. Oakland (3-8)                    4. St Louis (2-9)
 
*Clinched Division

MVP of the Week:  In the only game other than the Week 10 bye, Tom Brady or Randy Moss are not part of the discussion.  First, I would start with Devin Hester.  He had a punt return and kickoff return for a touchdown.  I have never seen a special teams player than can affect the outcome o####ame quite like this guy.  Next, I would go with Brett Favre.  He had 20 consecutive completions on his way to 381 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Chad Johnson had a fantastic effort with 103 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Finally, the Minnesota Defense and their 3 defensive touchdown returns on Eli Manning.   

Game of the Week:  There were quite a few.  I would start with the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears.  Despite Devon Hester returning a punt and kickoff for a touchdown, the Broncos still led the game 34-20.  The Bears scored two touchdowns in the last 5:17 to take the game to OT.  They won in OT on the first possession with a 39-yard field goal.  Honorable mention to the 49ers and Cardinals.  Their game was decided by a defensive touchdown in OT.  Kurt Warner was sacked and fumbled in the endzone.  Further mention to the Eagles and Patriots.  You have to applaud an Eagles team that was picked to lose by 24 points and was in position to win the game on the final drive.  I apologize to NBC for blasting them on the decision to show this game as part of their flex package.  The game ended up being very worthy of the spot. 

Loser of the Weak:  Eli Manning.  You can’t throw 3 touchdowns to the other team ever.  Next, Kurt Warner.  You can’t be sacked and fumble the ball in OT and lose the game.  It is even more unacceptable when the QB is someone of Warner’s experience.  The Washington Redskins who lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite the Bucs not gaining a single first down in the second half.  Going –6 in the turnover margin will tend to do that.  Finally, the AFC East.  The AFC East went 1-3 this week.  The division has been decided in Week 11.  The Dolphins and Jets have combined for a 2-21 start to the season.  The Bills have shown their colors once they started playing actual opponents losing 92-24 the last 2 weeks. 

The Bay of Pigs:  I love bad weather as much as the next person.  I am a Packer fan, so I am more than used to that.  The rain made the Monday Night Game entertaining for all the wrong reasons.  Big Ben led all passers with 165 yards.  Parker led all rusher with 81 yards.  Ward led all receivers with 88 yards.  The teams combined for only 22 first downs and 375 yards.  The average play went for 3.5 yards.  That led to a scoreless 59:43, before Reed kicked the winning field goal with 17 seconds remaining.  Honorable mention to the Redskins and Bucs.  They didn’t have weather as a crutch.  Teams that go first down less for a half are supposed to lose unless their opponent turns the ball over 6 times to bail out a bad offensive performance.  This goes to show how valuable Jeff Garcia has been this season.  It is clear the Bucs have no other viable options at QB.  

The Cam Cameron Award (Excellence in Coaching):  Herm Edwards is the obvious winner this week.  First, Herm can’t waste a timeout to think about challenging a play and then waste another one losing the challenge in the second half.  Second, Herm can’t go for it on 4th and 1 with that offense in a 3-point game.  Especially while the Chiefs are in field goal range and able to tie the game.  Third, Herm can’t get stopped and now have one time out and only 4 minutes left to get the ball back.  He did all of those things on Sunday and guaranteed a loss to the lowly Raiders as a result of it.  I think Herm thought he had Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy’s offense and decided to follow in his mentor’s footsteps.  The result was Oakland’s first win in the division since 2004 and a crippling loss at home.  This continues to prove what I have been saying for years.  Herm Edwards is a fantastic motivator and a great defensive mind.  He has a horrible affect on the offense and his game strategy is often questioned.   I have a hard time believing that he will last past this season in Kansas City.

Hospital Visit:  Again, the most serious injury had nothing to do with football.  Sean Taylor was shot early Monday at his home in an alleged burglary attempt.  The result was a loss of blood that resulted in his death Tuesday morning.  It is an absolute tragedy.  Cedric Benson hurt his ankle and is out for the year.  Some Bears fans claim that he never showed up this year.  Adrian Peterson is now the starter.  Speaking of Adrian Peterson, the Vikings Peterson may return to the lineup this week.  Finally, Ricky Williams injured his shoulder after just 6 carries in Monday’s loss. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) What is happening to New York Giants? –  If you remember my article about the 7 myths of 2007, you will remember that #2 was that this is Eli Manning’s breakout season.  I think he did more than enough to destroy that myth on Sunday with his 4 interceptions, 3 of which were returned for touchdowns.  That resulted in a 41-17 home loss to the Peterson less Vikings.  After starting 6-2, the Giants have dropped to 7-4.  Sound familiar Giant’s fans?  The Giants have to address their backup QB situation in the offseason.  If that means drafting a QB, trading for one, or signing one as a free agent, they can’t go into 2008 with Eli as the only legitimate starter on their roster.  They have to have a contingency plan if this happens again.  Here is where Eli Ranks in the major statistical areas.  He ranks 10th in the league in touchdown passes with 16.  He ranks 12th with 2,376 passing yards.  He is tied for the most interceptions with 15.  Eli ranks 28th in the NFL completing 58.5% of his passes.  His 75.0 QB rating is ranked 24th.  I will state it again.  If this was his first or second year starting, you can live with the inconsistency.  He makes enough plays to warrant more patience.  This is his 4th year in the league and his 3rd as the full time starter.  He is no longer a young QB.  At this point in his career he doesn’t make enough good plays to warrant tolerating the bad ones.  He is not like Brett Favre, Dan Marino, Fran Tarkenton, George Blanda, or the other Hall of Famers who had high turnover seasons, but always managed to make more game changing plays for their team than the other team.  He is what he is.  He has enough talent and enough skills to put up the numbers he did in the opener against Dallas.  He also has the decision-making ability to produce a result like he did on Sunday.  He is a slight upgrade of Rex Grossman who shouldn’t have a job in Chicago next season.  Eli’s most damning statistic is that the Giants are 18-6 in the first half of seasons in 2005-2007 and 8-11 in the second half of the season.  They are 0-2 in the playoffs.  The Giants have shown nothing to suggest they won’t make that 0-3 if they make the playoffs this season.  I will be the first to admit I have never been sold on Eli.  I will also admit that the Giants struggles in the second half over the last 3 years do not squarely rest on his shoulders and his shoulders only.  He has had a lot of help.  However, he has enough shortcomings that the Giants have to look at upgrading that position next season.  Eli has 5 more games that will make or break this season and probably determine his future as the long-term starter in New York.  Based on what I have seen the last 3 years, the Giants are in for a bumpy ride.

2) What is happening to the Tennessee Titans? – Plain and simple, the great Titans defense is very average without team MVP Albert Haynesworth.   In the first 8 games the Titans were 6-2 and had given up 124 points.  Since he left the lineup, the Titans have given up 97 points in their last 3 games, all losses.   Vince Young has had his 3 best passing efforts of the season this year in terms of yards.  However, he has 2 touchdowns and 5 picks in those 3 games.  Young is tied for 25th in the league with 5 touchdown passes.  He ranks tied for 4th with 13 picks.  He is 22nd in yards passing.  He is 21st in completion percentage.  His 65.3 QB rating is 31st in the NFL.  Unlike Eli Manning, the Titans still need to give this guy a chance.  This is his first full year starting and Young has no weapons.  Vince Young has not hit his ceiling.  He does not have one skill position player that could start for the Giants.  While Manning is going through inconsistency with Pro Bowl caliber weapons, Young is as alone as any QB in the NFL.  Still, many people thought Young could carry this team to the playoffs based on his 2006 season.  I thought that was a myth, and I think that is playing out in this 3 game losing streak.  The playoffs were in play when the defense was playing at an elite level.  The Titans were winning games 13-10, 13-9, and 20-7.  Now that they can’t stop anyone, they have no shot to win.  The offense cannot win games.  The Titans are headed in the right direction for the future.  They have a great defense in place, a promising young QB, and a great coach.  Now they need to bring in some weapons so that the team does not rely on the defense to win every game.  Vince Young has the intangibles to be a championship QB.  Now he needs to continue to develop as a passer and the Titans need to give him some weapons so he can take advantage of those intangibles.  While the Titans can still recover, they look like a team that will struggle to make the playoffs this season. 

3) Did the Eagles expose the Patriots?  – Maybe.  What this game shows is that even the best-coached teams overlook opponents.  The Patriots dropped a lot of balls and just seemed to be playing a step slow.  I am certain you will see a much better effort against the Ravens.  However, this game will give the league a lot to look at.  The Eagles played a lot of nickel against the Patriots, rushing 3 defensive linemen and a linebacker.  They mixed in a variety of blitzes.  That put a lot of pressure on Brady and the result was only 24 offensive points.  Brady was forced to release the ball a lot quicker.  It will be interesting to see how two of the more creative defensive teams in Baltimore and Pittsburgh use that blueprint in their preparation.  Brady is not like a Favre or Romo in the sense that he can make a lot of throws off his back foot and on the run.  While he is not a statue and can obviously make plays out of the pocket, he is definitely at his best in the pocket where he always makes the right decision between throwing long to Moss and Stallworth or short to Welker, Watson, and Faulk.   The other thing the Eagles showed is that the Patriots are venerable in the middle of the field.  Harrison, Bruschi, and Seau are all very intelligent players, but they are not the fastest guys.  The Eagles were consistently able to gain yards in the middle of the field, particularly through the air.  You saw the Colts do the same thing.  The key was that the defense was able to keep them in the game to allow them to do that.  It is hard to work the short middle of the field down 28-0 early in the game.  The Patriots will blow through most of their schedule.  The Jets and Dolphins do not possess enough offensive or defensive talent to make this scheme work.  While the Ravens can create defensive pressure, they don’t have enough offensive talent to put the Patriots on their heals.  However, the Giants and the Steelers in particular, should have seen enough positives in this game that they may be able to take something from it and use it to their advantage in upcoming weeks.  It will also be interesting to see if this game gives the playoff teams something to build on when they face New England.  

4) – The Dawg Pound is back – Cleveland finally has put together a team that can compete in the AFC North.  After averaging 4.75 wins per season from 2003 to 2006, the Browns already have 7 wins.  They have 2 winnable home games against the Bills and 49ers and their road schedule of Arizona, NY Jets, and Bengals are all winnable contest.  The positives for this team are on the offense.  They rank 3rd in points and 9th in yards.  The problem is the defense.  32nd in points and 32nd in yards.  They remind me a lot of the 2001 St Louis Rams or 2004 Minnesota Vikings.  Teams with scary offenses that just couldn’t stop anyone.  The Browns have great offensive balance.  They can run with Lewis and Wright.  Edwards is a legit #1 guy.  Winslow is establishing himself as an elite tight end.  Derek Anderson is playing at a Pro Bowl level.  But they probably need to score 45 points to win against the elite teams.  The good news is that the schedule sets up for them to win 10 or 11 games and earn a wildcard spot.  Playoff experience will give this young team even more to build on.  While that will probably result in a road game against Indy, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, or San Diego; the Browns have been a disaster the last 4 years.  This will be a much-needed step for a team that finally appears to be moving forward and not backwards.  The Browns will be a tough out for any team they face, because they will force the opposing offense to be more aggressive and put up points in bunches.  That could cause teams to get out of character and allow the Browns to even win a playoff game.  That is something that was unthinkable after their week 1 debacle. 

5) The Playoff Picture – I’m basically going to devote a segment to the playoff picture every week.  NFC is starting to clear up at the top and is still a little dicey at the bottom.  The winner of the Packers and Cowboys will have the inside track for the number one seed.  The loser is still in great shape for the number 2 seed.  The Bucs look good to go at the #3 or #4 seed, provided they beat New Orleans this weekend.  That would give them a 3 game lead and season sweep with 4 games to play.  Seattle and Arizona is still too fuzzy to predict, although the Seahawks showed why they are favored and Arizona showed why they are still the challenger.  You have to beat the 49ers at home if you want to go to the playoffs.  The wildcard is a mess.  The NY Giants are 7-4, but have lost 2 of their last 3.  The Lions are 6-5, but have lost 3 straight.  That combined with Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Arizona all being 5-6 leaves a log jam for the wildcard.  We may start to get some separation with the NY Giants traveling to Chicago, Detroit going to Minnesota, Seattle traveling to Philly, and Tampa Bay squaring off with New Orleans.  We also may have a bigger mess than we already have.  In the AFC, New England has clinched the AFC East and is the front-runner for the Number 1 Seed.  Jacksonville at Indy this week and Pittsburgh at New England next week will answer a lot of questions about the #2, #3, and #5 seeds.  San Diego and Denver will fight for the #4 seed.  Neither should contend with Jacksonville or Indy for the 5th wildcard.  Both lost to Jacksonville.  Indy beat Denver, but lost to San Diego.  AFC West should be a one-bid division.  Cleveland is the front-runner for the #6 seed and could sneak up to #5 with a strong finish.  Tennessee and Houston are still in the race or #6, with a slew of 4-7 teams sitting even further back.  The key will be who gets the #5 vs. the #6 seed.  The #5 seed will draw either San Diego or Denver.  The #6 seed will be looking at Pittsburgh, Indy, or Jacksonville.  That is a huge difference and could determine which wild card wins a playoff game and which one goes home early.  

A Look Ahead:  I went 5-0 on the picks last week.  I shouldn’t take credit on the Tampa Bay pick when they don’t even register a first down in the second half.  But, I guess I’ll have to take it.  Here are my important games for next week, excluding Dallas and Green Bay.  These are not necessarily the 5 best games, but the 5 games that I feel will be the most influential in shaping the various divisions:   

1) Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) – This will basically decide the AFC South.  An Indy win will give them a 2 game lead with a tiebreaker and only 4 games to play.  Jacksonville becomes the lead wild card team in that scenario.  A Jacksonville win ties them in the division with the possibility to earn a tiebreaker.  That makes the division a toss up for the last 4 weeks of the season.  While Jacksonville was blown out in the first meeting, Garrard’s early game injury really put them at a disadvantage.  Jacksonville won by 3 in Indy in 2004 and lost by 7 points there in 2005 and 2006.  While Indy usually gets the better of the match up in terms of wins, Jacksonville usually gives them a tough game.  The key to this game is what it always has been.  If Jacksonville can control the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense, it gives them the advantage in time of possession and allows them to disrupt Manning and the offense.  When Indy controls the line of scrimmage, Jacksonville is forced to pass and Indy’s quickness controls the game.  Indy is usually a different team at home and might be getting Harrison back this week.  I look for Indy to win a close contest.  Winner:  Indianapolis

2) Cleveland (7-4) at Arizona (5-6) – Two teams that are in the thick of their division and wild card races.  Cleveland gets another chance to prove they can win tough games on the road.  While Arizona is an improved team, this is a game Cleveland has to win if they want to take the jump to the next level.  Arizona needs to keep pace with a slew of 5-6 teams and 7-4 Seattle.  This is another tough game to pick.  Warner just threw for 484 yards against the 49ers.  Cleveland is statistically as bad as the 49ers in pass defense.  However, Warner also threw picks and held on to the ball too long.  The bad plays ended up costing Arizona the game.  Cleveland will be able to make big plays.  I look for a very high scoring contest.  High 30s maybe even 40s.  While Cleveland has to prove they can play as well on the road as they do at home, I have a hard time picking a team that just lost to the 49ers for the second time this season.  Winner: Cleveland

3) Detroit (6-5) at Minnesota (5-6) – I view this as an elimination game for both teams.  If Detroit loses, that will make it four straight losses.  Playoff teams go into Minnesota and find a way to come out with a win, not lose their 4th straight.  Detroit has no tiebreakers with NY Giants, Philly, Washington, or Arizona.  They still have Dallas, Green Bay, and San Diego.  They are running out of winnable games and they have to have this one.  They need to be at least 9-7 if not 10-6 to make the playoffs given their tiebreaker problem.  Minnesota has a better tiebreaker situation, but has other problems.  Their schedule sets up better than the Lions.  They play 3 teams that are 5-6 and San Fran.  However, a loss here drops them to 2 games behind Detroit with no tiebreaker.  A 2-4 road record does not bode well for them winning out, which means that they would not be able to catch Detroit.  The key to me is that teams beat Detroit by throwing the ball, something that Minnesota doesn’t do very well.  Detroit is decent against the run.  Even if Peterson does play, how much and will it be at 100%?  If Kitna can avoid the turnovers that Eli Manning did, he has the weapons to move the ball against a very bad pass defense.  I look for a close game, with Detroit coming out the winner.  Winner: Detroit

4) Tampa Bay (7-4) at New Orleans (5-6) – This is an elimination game in the division for New Orleans.  The other problem is that the NFC West looks to be a one bid division, so New Orleans doesn’t look to have good tiebreaker scenarios or chances to gain games with head to head wins in the wildcard.  If New Orleans wants to make the playoffs, they really need to win the NFC South.  New Orleans can’t go 3 games down in the division and not have a tiebreaker and expect to catch Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay needs to win this game to basically clinch the division and stay in contention for the #3 seed.  It also puts them only 2 games back of the Dallas & Green Bay loser with an outside shot to position themselves for the #2 seed should the loser collapse.  Seattle would be in better position based on the schedule and a victory over Tampa Bay in the opener.  I don’t know where to go in this game.  New Orleans could win this game by 40 points or lose by 40 points.  Tampa could blow this team out or not have a first down in the second half.  Tampa is 2-3 on the road.  New Orleans is 2-3 at home.  Tampa Bay won the first matchup 31-14, and the game wasn’t even that close.  New Orleans is a disappointment and does not warrant being picked to do anything at this point.  I’ll go with Tampa Bay, based on their dominance in the early game.  Winner: Tampa Bay

5) New York Giants (7-4) at Chicago (5-6) – Two of the more, if not most inconsistent QBs in the NFL square up against one another.  This is basically an elimination game for Chicago.  They have no tiebreakers against Detroit.  They still play Green Bay.  While they still get games against Washington, New Orleans, and Minnesota, they really need this game.  A win pulls them to with in a game of NY Giants and they would have tiebreakers against NY Giants and Philly with Washington still on the schedule.  That is a much more workable scenario.  The Giants have actually been a good road team, losing only 1 game at Dallas on the road.  They have dropped 3 games at home.  Here is my quarrel with Chicago.  Minnesota used 3 returns to win 41-17.  Chicago gets 2 returns and needs OT to win their game.  If a team gets two free touchdowns, they should win in a route.  Not by 3 points in OT.  Other than Hester, the Bears don’t have enough playmakers to win this game.  If the Giants don’t kick to Hester, that alone should give them the victory.  Unless Eli wants to play catch with the Bears Defense.  I look for the Giants to win a close contest.  Winner: NY Giants

That’s all for this week.  This week in addition to my normal newsletter, I will take a look at the Dallas and Green Bay Rivalry and pick that contest.  That is why I left that game out of my 5 games of the week.  I think it is big enough to warrant it’s own article.  I look forward to hearing your comments. 

Dallas and Green Bay are on a collision course for a historical matchup in a few weeks.  While 8-0 vs 7-0 has never happened; 10-1 vs. 10-1 is still very rare as well.  We may get both in the same season.  The only other instance I can think of where two 10-1 teams faced off happened in 1990 when the 10-1 Giants traveled to the 10-1 49ers.  The 49ers prevailed 7-3.  If the Packers beat the Lions and the Cowboys beat the Jets this Thursday, we will get that special matchup.  To think that Dallas or Green Bay would probably be a 10 pt underdog if they played the Pats demonstrates the dominance of New England this season.    In another shocking development New England won again and Miami lost again.  If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game.  It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter.  Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it.  I hereby present to you a recap of the tenth week in the National Football League. 

Standings

AFC East                                NFC East
1. New England (10-0)       1. Dallas (9-1)
2. Buffalo (5-5)                     2. NY Giants (7-3)
3. NY Jets (2-8)                    3 .Washington (5-5)
4. Miami (0-10)                     4. Philadelphia (5-5) 

AFC South                              NFC South
1. Indianapolis (8-2)            1. Tampa Bay (6-4)
2. Jacksonville (7-3)             2. Carolina (4-6)
3. Tennessee (6-4)              3. New Orleans (4-6)
4. Houston (5-5)                    4. Atlanta (3-7)
 

AFC North                              NFC North
1. Pittsburgh (7-3)                 1.Green Bay (9-1)
2. Cleveland (6-4)                 2. Detroit (6-4)
3. Baltimore (4-6)                  3. Minnesota (4-6)
4. Cincinnati (3-7)                 4. Chicago (4-6)
 

AFC West                             NFC West
1. San Diego (5-5)              1. Seattle (6-4)
2. Denver (5-5)                    2. Arizona (5-5)
3. Kansas City (4-6)           3. San Francisco (2-8)
4. Oakland (2-8)                  4. St Louis (2-8)
 
MVP of the Week not named Tom Brady or Randy Moss:  I think you have to start in Dallas where TO dominated the Redskins to the tune of 8 catches for 173 yards and 4 touchdowns in the Cowboys 28-23 victory.  Next would be Chester Taylor who filled in for the injured Adrian Peterson to produce 164 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns.  He also chipped in with 38 yards receiving.   Brady, Peterson, Moss, and TO were so dominant compared to the rest of the league this week that there really isn’t anyone else in the discussion. 

Game of the Week:  I would have to go with Cleveland at Baltimore.  Baltimore trailed 27-14 entering the 4th quarter.  They scored 16 straight points to take a 30-27 lead with just 26 seconds to play.  Cleveland was able to get in position for a game tying 51-yard field goal attempt.   The kick hit the right upright, bounced off the support bar behind the cross bar and back into the field of play.  The kick was initially ruled no good and the Ravens left the field.  The officials had a discussion about the play, correctly reversing the call.  Cleveland would kick a 33-yard field goal with 9:10 left in overtime to win the game 33-30.  

Loser of the Weak:  The Miami Dolphins.  Their defense has