I apologize to all the people who have been reading my blog for getting this posted on my site at such a late date.  I had the fun experience of doing a terrible move in the middle of the summer, and have not had the time to sit at my computer and type the final division in my 8 division picks.  That would be the AFC East.  Probably not the worst thing, as the Michael Vick controversy seemed to garner more interest than the AFC South last week.  Either that or no one cares about the AFC South.  Regardless, this division, like the AFC South, has been a one team division.  The Patriot’s have pretty much owned this division over the last 5 seasons.  However, the Jets turned a few heads last season by winning 10 games entering a season where they were coming off the 4th pick in the draft.   The Dolphins were a sleeper pick to go to the Super Bowl last season, and have added some interesting pieces to their mix after a 6-10 season.  Finally the Bills are looking to gain respectability in this division.  4 straight Super Bowl appearances seem like a long time ago.  Here is how I see the AFC East playing out this season.

 New England Patriots

Strengths:  The strength of the Patriots has been the Patriots front office, and their ability to surround their star quarterback, Tom Brady with talent on both sides of the ball.  The Patriot’s front office is an example for the rest of the league.  Kraft to Belichick have made countless decisions that have paid off for the Patriots.  They are willing to sign veteran players to provide leadership to the team.  If the veterans become too expensive, they are willing to cut ties and rely on young talent.  A prime example of that is Ty Law.  He had been the leader in the secondary for many years.  When he became too expensive, the Patriots did not hesitate to turn the reigns over to Samuel and ####.  The same goes for Deion Branch, Willie McGinest, and countless other veteran players.  The Patriots philosophy is that as long as they surround Tom Brady with quality talent, they have a chance to win every week.  So far, that philosophy has paid major dividends, in the form of 3 Super Bowls and an AFC Championship appearance since 2001.   What makes the Patriots different than other teams is that they are balanced on both sides of the ball.  Since 2002, they have finished in the top 10 in scoring or yardage offense and defense 11 times.   6 times they did it on the defensive side and 5 times they did it on the offensive side.  Unlike the Rams, who are consistently in the top 10 offenses and worst defenses or the Ravens who are the other extreme; the Patriots have found a way to dominate on both sides of the ball consistently.  The main problem for the 12-4 Patriots last year was that they did not have a game breaking wide receiver.  The loss to the Colts seemed to light a fire under the Patriots to address this problem.  Enter Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth, two receivers that can stretch the field.  Combined with Ben Watson, the Patriots enter this season with a formidable arsenal of weapons for Tom Brady to attack opposing defenses.  They added Wes Welker, who can be a good third down receiver and special teams player.  They added Kelly Washington.   Receiver should not be a problem this year.  There other problem was speed at linebacker.  Enter Adalius Thomas, one of the most athletic linebackers in the NFL.  The Patriots have made major improvements to a team that was a final drive away from the Super Bowl.  They appear to be the class of the NFL entering the regular season.   

Weaknesses:   The Patriots have 3 question marks entering the season.  1) Did the wholesale changes they made on offense this offseason really improve the team?  While Randy Moss has been 1500 yard 15 touchdown receiver in this league that was a while ago.  In Oakland, he never lived up to the promise.  He was an awful locker room guy.  Also with Corey Dillon gone, Maroney becomes the starting running back.  Is he ready to be a 1200 yard 10 touchdown running back?  If those players struggle to make the transition, it could backfire on the Patriots.  2) Does the Samuel hold out get settled before the start of the regular season?   While the Patriots have found ways to play without key components before, Samuel was a big part of their pass defense.  If he decides to sit out the first 10 games of the regular season, the Patriots could have some problems matching up against opposing offense’s number one receiver.  3) Are the Patriots too old at linebacker?  Vrabel, Bruschi, and Thomas are solid components.  Seau and Chad Brown are both on the older side.  While they are all still excellent football players, other than Thomas, none of them will blow you away with their speed.  That lack of speed really showed in the AFC Championship.  The defensive line is as solid as they come.  Will these linebackers be able to make the necessary plays, especially if the secondary is struggling if Samuels holds out?     

Prediction:   Even thought the Patriots do have some questions, most of them revolve around new players and how they will affect team chemistry.  This is one of the best teams in the NFL at taking on new players and assimilating them to the Patriot system.  Everything the Patriot front office has touched in this decade has turned to gold.  Is there any reason to doubt them now?  The Patriots do get some tough games against San Diego, Indy, Dallas, Philly, Cincy, and Baltimore.   The fact is they have been dealing with that the last 4 years.  They have finished with a 14-2 record twice, a 12-4 record, and a “disappointing” 10-6.  This team had a fantastic run last year and has made significant upgrades this offseason.  While offseason moves do not always work out, there is nothing in the Patriot’s past that suggests these moves will backfire.  Until the Patriot’s show that they are no longer capable of pushing the right buttons in the player personal area, it would be foolish to pick against them.  Even if Randy Moss doesn’t work out, they only gave up a 4th round pick to acquire him.  The Patriots can cut him and move on.  The other receivers they acquired are all upgrades anyway.  I don’t look for any doom in gloom in the Boston area.  I believe Randy Moss will be a nightmare for opposing defenses.  I believe Tom Brady will have a stellar season.  I believe that Seymour, Thomas, Vrabel, Bruschi, Samuels, and the other defenders will have a great year.  I look for the Patriots to finish with the league’s best record, and the AFC’s Number One seed. 

Record:  14-2, AFC East  Division Title, AFC #1 seed 

New York Jets

Strengths:  The New York Jets and New Orleans Saints were the two surprise teams of the NFL season last season.  Despite finishing 4-12 in 2005, the Jets were able to improve to 10-6 in Mangini’s first season as the Jet’s Head Coach.  He led them to a wild card position, where they were defeated by the superior New England Patriots.  The expectation will be that the Jets will be able to build on their success last season.  The Jet’s biggest strength was their scoring defense last season.  Despite finishing 18th in yards allowed, they were able to win with the 6th best scoring defense in the National Football League.  They attempted to improve on the defense even more by drafting Revis in the first round.  He should be able to make an immediate impact in an already strong secondary.   Jonathan Vilma is a terrific middle linebacker.  On offense the Jets have a number of weapons.  Chad Pennington looked to be an emerging quarterback before arm injuries caused him to miss significant time.  Last year Pennington played in all 16 games, and was a major reason for the Jet’s return to the playoffs.  Coles and Cotchery are some nice weapons on the outside.  The addition of Thomas Jones will give the Jets a featured runner on the ground.  While the Jets do not have a lot of flashy players, Mangini has brought the Patriot way to the Jets.  The sum is greater than that of the parts.  While none of the players on their own look to be anything spectacular, they fit in well together and make for a combination that get defeat teams with bigger names.    

Weaknesses – This team was very deficient on the offensive side of the ball.  The Jets finished 18th in points and 25th in yards.  While Pennington had a great comeback, he had 3300 + yards, 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.  This output was actually quite amazing.  He was playing behind two rookie starters on the offensive line in Ferguson and Mangold.  His leading rusher had 650 yards on the ground.  His leading receivers had 1098 and 961 yards.  The next leading receiver had only 23 catches and 347 yards.  Pennington was asked to lead an offense that had very few weapons.  He made the most of it and should have an easier time putting up big numbers now that he is a year removed from arm problems and with the emergence of Thomas Jones.  Thomas Jones has the ability to carry the ball 20 times for 100 yards, while being a receiving weapon out of the backfield.  While he will never be confused for LT or LJ, and has never warranted his lofty draft status; he is a perfectly capable NFL running back.  The biggest thing this team needs to find is consistency.  Last year they lost to the Colts 28-31.  They followed that up by losing to Jacksonville. 0-41. That devastating loss was followed up with a two game winning streak against the Dolphins and Lions.  They beat the Patriots in New England 17-14.  Eight weeks later they ended their season there with a 16-37 loss.  This season they need to find a level of consistency that they lacked this year.  Thomas Jones should help in that department.  On defense, the Jets need to stop the run better.  They ranked 24th in the NFL in that department.  Again, a lot of that had to do with the offense’s lack of explosion.  When 9 of your games are decided by 8 points or less, the opportunity is going to be there for the other team to stay committed to running the football.  Rarely did the Jets blow anyone out last year.  The Jets must remain a stingy defense in the point department, while limiting the yardage that their opponents are able to accumulate. 

Prediction: I like what I am seeing in New York.  They added two rookies to their offensive line last season that look to be staples for years to come.  The Kendall holdout could cause problems if it lingers into the regular season.  The key for the Jets was being able to acquire Thomas Jones by simply moving down in the second round.  He should be a huge addition for the club.  All in all the Jets had a very good offseason, and should be looking to build on their surprise season a year ago.  They had a lot of young players that look to be productive players that should continue to get better with another year’s experience.  The key is keeping Chad Pennington healthy.  Without him, they have a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball.  The Jets have a decent schedule.  The first two weeks are brutal with the Patriots and Ravens.  December should be a kind month.  It features games against the at Dolphins, Browns, at Patriots, at Titans, and Chiefs.  That could be a 4-1 month to close the season.   While I don’t expect the Jets to win the division this year, I am looking for their second straight 10 win season, which should be enough for them to sneak into the playoffs as the AFC’s final playoff team.    

Record: 10-6, 2nd AFC East, AFC #6 seed

Miami Dolphins

Strengths:  Despite an aging roster, the Dolphins were able to finish the season 5th in points and 4th in yards.  While some defenses will be strong against the run and weaker against the pass, the Dolphins were stellar in both areas.  They finished in the top 10 in scoring defense, total yards, rushing yards, and passing yards allowed.  Jason Taylor was voted the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.  Add Joey Porter into the mix, and the Dolphins look to have an even nastier defense.  Zack Thomas has been the leader in the middle for the last 10 or so seasons.  On offense, Chambers has been a solid receiver.  He had 29 touchdowns in the 3 seasons leading up to 2006.  He was coming off an 82 reception, 1100 yard, 11 touchdown season.  His numbers severely dropped last season.  That was in large part to playing with Joey Harrington for much of the season.  Ronnie Brown has shown signs of being a Pro Bowl Caliber running back.  He rushed for 1008 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The Dolphins had hoped to have Ricky Williams back this season.  However, he has not shown the discipline to make you think that he will be reinstated anytime soon.  Ronnie Brown needs to have a breakout season to justify being the second pick in the draft 3 drafts ago. 

Weaknesses:  This team’s problems occurred on the offensive side of the ball.  The Culpepper injury was devastating to the Dolphins last season.  With Joey Harrington under the center for most of the season, the Dolphins were limited to the 29th scoring offense in the NFL.  The Dolphins failed to crack 20 points until week 7 last season.  The accomplished that feat only 6 times last season.  In a hope to improve the offense, the Dolphins parted ways with both Harrington and Culpepper last season.  They are hoping that Trent Green will be able to help.  While he had some great years in Kansas City, he was hurt last season.  The key for him will be to stay healthy.  If he can do that, he should have enough weapons to post above average numbers.  The Dolphins will also miss Randy McMichael.  He has been good for 60 receptions, 600 yards and 5 touchdowns the last 3 seasons.  David Martin is a significant drop off in that department.   Booker and Chambers are good targets, but need to return to past years production.  Gin Jr. was an interesting pick that could add explosion to the offense if his ankle recovers.  Most of the Dolphins problems on offense were the result of poor quarterback play last season.  If Trent Green is able to stay healthy, the numbers for Booker, Brown, and Chambers should also improve.  If the Dolphins enter the top half of the league in the offensive category, then the Dolphins should be poised to compete for a playoff birth behind their terrific defensive unit. 

Prediction: Cameron has his work cut out for him this season.  While it is easy to score 492 points with Rivers, LT, and Gates, it is another thing to do it with an offense is transition.  While the Dolphins have a better receiving core (Chambers, Booker, Gin Jr, and Hakim) than the Chargers, the rest of the offense is deficient when compared to the Chargers.  The offensive line, quarterback, running back, and tight end are all inferior to what Cameron worked with in San Diego.  The Chargers defense was very comparable to the Dolphins defense last season.  Cameron will not realize any benefit there.  I think he is going to find it a lot harder for his system to succeed in Miami in his first season.  The Dolphins main problem is the division they play in.  They have 4 games against the Patriots and Jets.   They play the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers.  They play the Cowboys and Eagles.  Those are 9 games that the Dolphins should lose right there.   Providing that Trent Green remains healthy, I see no reason the Dolphins offense will not improve.  While he is at the end of his career, he is an upgrade over Harrington.  Still, he was not a fixture in the playoffs with the Chiefs.  Adding him is not a ticket to the post season.  This is an older team that is in a state of transition in a brutal division.  While the Dolphins could surprise people in this division, I think it is unlikely.  The schedule and division are very tough.  As I stated in some of the other divisions, if the Packers were in the AFC East and the Dolphins were in the NFC North, I would consider the Dolphins the second best team in that division with a realistic chance at the playoffs.  They don’t play in the NFC North.  I consider the Dolphins the clear 3rd best team in the division.  This is probably a 7 win team that is probably treading water as their young offense gets better and their veteran defense gets another year older.  My fear is that by the time the offense is ready to compete for the playoffs, the Dolphins will have to retool a defense that will be old and slow.     
    
Record:  7-9, 3rd Place AFC East, No Playoffs

Buffalo Bills

Strengths:  JP Losman, Marshwan ####, and Lee Evans.  The light finally seemed to go off in Losman’s head the second half of the season.  He and Lee Evans had a terrific second half of the season.  Evans had an 11 catch 265 yard 2 touchdown day against Houston.   That propelled a 43 catch 805 yard 6 touchdown second half of the season.  Losman had 12 touchdowns against 8 picks in the second half of the season.  While that does not win an MVP award, it creates optimism for this season.  #### appears to be a running back that will be able to be a weapon in both the running and passing game.  The one knock on him is his size.  There have been plenty of small running backs that have found success in the NFL.  Only time will tell if he can be one of them.  The A Train offers a perfect complement.  The defense was 10th in points allowed and 7th against the pass. 

Weaknesses:  The biggest problem last season was the 28th ranked rushing defense that played with the 7th ranked passing defense.  Furthermore, Clements signed with the 49ers and Spikes now resides in Philly.  That is a big chunk of defense to lose in one offseason.  Whitner looked to be a great addition to the secondary as a rookie last season.  However Webster and McGee combined for 2 picks last season.  They will need those two to pick up the slack now that Clements is living the dream in San Fran.  Schobel is an excellent defensive end.  Posluszney could be a surprise at middle linebacker, having come from Penn State, otherwise known as Linebacker U.  However, it is hard to imagine this defense being better than it was last season with Spikes and Clements gone.  While the Bills had some good games last year, the Jets, Jags, Patriots, Bears and other teams found ways to put up a large amount of points.  On offense, the Bills are not a juggernaut quite yet.  #### has a lot of promise, but is still a rookie.  He is replacing McGahee.  While that may not be a bad thing in the long term, #### would have to better 990 yards and 6 touchdowns to be a more productive back.  That would be a pretty good season for a rookie runner.  Peerless Price has yet to show he is capable of putting up numbers like he did in his first stint as a Bill.  The Bills definitely need a second wide receiver.  Despite the Bills ending the season on a strong note offensively, they were still the 23rd ranked scoring offense in the NFL.  The Bills need to show they can build on that success and have it translate into a full season of productivity. 

Prediction:  As I stated previously, this is a tough division to play in.  The Dolphins have a top 5 ranked defense and finished last in the division.  The Jets are coming off a 10 win season and have added some pieces.  The Patriots are the class of the NFL.  1-5 or 2-4 against the division is very realistic.  They have games against the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, and Jags.  All those teams should beat the Bills.  Even if they went 3-4 in that slate of games, you are still looking at a 7-9 team.  This is a young team that is stuck in a brutal division.  Their best record in this decade is 9-7.  In 2003 and 2004 they had a top 5 defense, with an offense that had issues.  Even in 2004, when they were the 7th best scoring team, they finished 24th in yards.  Now that the offense finally looks to be turning around, the defense looks like it is in decline.  The Bills are victims of being in a small market in the same division as the Patriots.  Free agents aren’t flocking to a small market that is playing second fiddle in their division.  Furthermore, they have a brilliant football mind running their organization in Levy, but unfortunately he is two years younger than God.  His boss Ralph Wilson is in the same boat.  While these two are Hall of Famer’s whose contributions were key in building the NFL into what it is today, they don’t  have time to slowly build this team into a contender.  Levy and Wilson want to win right now.  In a best case scenario, the Bills look to be at least two years from making the playoffs.  This team started 2-5, before salvaging their season with a 5-4 finish.  While they have added some pieces, they have subtracted some others.  While I expect the Bills to be a competitive team, I find it hard to see them winning a lot of games.  I believe the Bills will fight the Dolphins for 3rd place in the division, probably missing the Dolphins by a game or two. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place AFC East, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the AFC East predictions.  It has been a lot of fun previewing each division, reading the different comments from the different NFL fans.  I plan on adding a fantasy element to each of the teams, and reposting these predictions on the Maniax website.  I hope you will take a look at those.  Those should be available in the next week or two.  My next post on the Fox website will recap my playoff picks; pick a winner for each of my playoff games, as well as my prediction for a Super Bowl Champion.  That should also be available in the next week or two.