It is finally nice to have something to talk about other than Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers standoff. With the Saints acquiring Jeremy Shockey and the Redskins acquiring Jason Taylor there is going to be immediate speculation as to how much this improves those teams chances. Here is a look at how I believe this changes the NFC landscape.
Jeremy Shockey - Jeremy Shockey is a little bit overrated in my mind. He never has had a 1,000 yard season. Only twice in his career has he had more than 700 yards receiving. The most touchdowns he has had in a season is 7, which he has done on two occasions.
People tend to lump Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey into the same conversation. In my mind there is Gates and Gonzalez and then there is every other tight end. Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow must show that they can have seasons like they had last season year in and year out to join that class.
That being said Shockey is still a fantastic addition. Jeremy Shockey has never played with a great QB. Early in his career he played with Kerry Collins. Kerry Collins did lead the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2000. Collins was an average quarterback by 2002 and 2003. While Eli Manning showed he could lead a team to a Super Bowl in 2007 he has a career 73.4 rating and a career 54.7 completion percentage. That isn’t going to help Shockey put up big numbers in the regular season. Jeremy Shockey has played well considering the offense and quarterback he has played with in New York during his career.
The Saints present an interesting opportunity for him. Colston and Bush are the main offensive weapons for the Saints. Meacham and Henderson provide options at the other wide receiver. The two weapons that offense has lacked in recent years is a consistent running game and a good tight end. Mark Campbell, Billy Miller, and Ernie Conwell were the tight ends in 2006. Eric Johnson joined the fold in 2007.
Shockey is going to help in both regards. He is an excellent blocker that will be able to help open up holes for the running backs. He will also be able to stretch the middle of the field and keep the linebackers and safeties honest. Drew Brees loves throwing to the tight end. Gates had 964 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2004 and 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2005 catching passes in San Diego with Brees.
I picked the Saints to go 10-6 this season and with the NFC South before the addition of Shockey. This move makes me more certain of that pick. I still wouldn’t say the Saints are a 12-4 or 13-3 team, because we don’t know how improved their defense will be. Vilma, Ellis, McCray, and Ga y were all added to a defense that really struggled stopping the pass. If the Saints are not improved in that area they will still struggle to win games consistently in 2008. What they shouldn’t struggle to do is put up a lot of points on the scoreboard. Jeremy Shockey makes this dangerous offense even more explosive. He should help the Saints win the very average NFC South.
As far as the effect on the NY Giants. They won the Super Bowl without Shockey playing a single down in the playoffs in 2007. Boss is by no means of Shockey's caliber in the passing game. He blocks well and the Giants scored enough points in the playoffs to survive and advance without Shockey.
I like the move because Shockey was going to be nothing but a distraction in 2008. He was not happy with the Giants front office. I think it allows their younger receivers to be a bigger part of the offense, which is a good thing. The Giants may turn the 2nd and 5th round picks they got into valuable players in 2009. While it puts them a weapon down in 2008, I don't think it will affect the Giants season nearly as much as the retirement of Strahan. How the Giants adjust to life without him will define their 2008 season.
Jason Taylor - This moved I’m not as excited about. I understand why the Redskins had to make the move. They lost DE Phillip Daniels to an ACL tear on the opening day of training camp. They also lost DE Alex Buzbee for the season to a ruptured Achilles' tendon. Those injuries necessitated the trade to acquire Taylor. The Redskins had to give up a 2nd round pick in 2009 and a 6th round pick in 2010. That is not a steep price to pay for the decades leading sack artist so long as he plays more than this year. He has stated his plan is to play out his remaining contract, which has 2 years left. He will team with Andre Collins to give the Redskins two players that accumulated 10 plus sacks in 2007. That is important in a division with Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, and Eli Manning.
Obviously Taylor makes this defense better. He was the 2006 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He has the most sacks over the last 5 seasons and since 2000. The Redskins ranked 16th in sacks with 33. The NY Giants were first in the league with 53 sacks and the Cowboys were 3rd with 46. The Eagles were tied for 9th with 36. The Redskins were the weakest team in the division at putting pressure on the quarterback. That is essential for any successful defense. You should be able to pencil Taylor in for 10 sacks this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Redskins also finish in the top 10 in that department. Taylor should make other players around him better, because of the attention he will take away from those other guys. While Andre Carter is a good player he does not strike fear into offensive coordinators like Jason Taylor.
The problem is that the Redskins didn’t start the season 5-7 last year because of their poor pass rush. The only game that really hurt them was in the New England Patriots game. When you lose 52-7 there are a lot of problems in play.
The fact is that Washington’s problems centered on the offensive side of the ball. Neither of their starting running backs had a good yards per carry. Portis had a 3.9 and Betts had a 3.6. Teams put a lot of guys in the box to stop the running game. However, the pass offense could not capitalize. The Redskins threw only 18 touchdown passes as a team. Chris Cooley led the team in receptions (66) and touchdown catches (8). The receivers accounted for only 7 touchdown catches on the season. Santana Moss led the receivers with 61 catches for 808 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Redskins attempted to resolve those issues by drafting Thomas and Kelly in the 2nd round to compete at the wide receiver spot and drafted Davis to help out at 2nd tight end. While I graded the Redskins draft high and these players may eventually help wide receivers usually need two seasons before they are ready to contribute in their third season. While R. Moss, Bouldin, and Colston are exceptions to that rule they are just that, exceptions.
The Redskins have a new offense. They are going to run a West Coast offense in 2008. Todd Collins has never run that type of offense, which was one of the main reasons he was the backup with the Saunders run offense. While Jason Campbell did run a West Coast offense at Auburn saying he is going to be ready with that in Week 1 is like saying a young race car driver is going to be good in NASCAR because he excelled at bumper cars at the local carnival. While some of the principles will be the same a lot of the terminology will be different. The speed of the SEC does not compare to the speed of the NFL. He hasn’t run that offense in over 2 years. Even Jim Zorn said that he was going to teach Campbell this offense as though he had never run it before. That is why I believe Brett Favre would be a great fit in Washington. He has run the West Coast offense, could help teach it to Jason Campbell, and give the Redskins a great shot at making the playoffs this season. As the NY Giants proved last year once you make the dance anything can happen.
That isn’t to say that the offensive woes are all Jason Campbell’s fault. What it is saying is that someone of Brett Favre’s caliber is going to put up better numbers with average to above average receivers than Jason Campbell would. It is more a testament to Favre’s abilities in Green Bay to lead the league in touchdown passes working with Bill Schroeder and Robert Ferguson than a slam on Jason Campbell.
The problem is that as things stand now the Cowboys added Zach Thomas, Michael Jenkins, and PacMan Jones. The Eagles added Assante Samuel. The NY Giants did lose 4 defenders from last years Super Bowl team, most notably Strahan and Wilson. However, they still have a strong supply of pass rushers and their secondary should be improved over the 2007 regular season despite the loss of Wilson. The Redskins just haven’t added much on offense other than their draft picks. I think their defense will keep them in a lot of games this season, but I’m not sure their offense has enough for them to win a lot of divisional games. Winning divisional games is a must for teams looking to make the playoffs.
Jason Taylor is a great player, but he isn’t going to significantly help the offense. I had the Redskins finishing 7-9 without him, which was good for 4th in the division. Remember Jason Taylor had 11 sacks in 2007 and the Dolphins won 1 game. Maybe the Redskins get to 8-8 this season, but I think their potential offensive woes will overshadow any gains they made on defense in a brutal NFC East.
As far as the effect on the Dolphins. They got a 2nd round pick in 2009 and a 6th round pick in 2010. That was good value for a veteran player that may not play more than a season or two and wanted out of Miami. They won only one game with him in 2007. They are in complete rebuilding mode. I highly doubt they go to 0-16 because of this move. It will hurt this defense, but was a necessary move to get the franchise going in the right direction.
That’s my take on the two latest big free agency moves. I had originally planned to release my Playoff and Super Bowl Predictions today, but I am going to hold off until training camps start up, just because of the uncertainty of the Brett Favre situation. There are a few destinations that might sway my thinking on playoff predictions, including if he did stay in Green Bay. I’d like to give that some time to play out before I release my final predictions. How do you the Shockey and Taylor moves affect the landscape in the NFC? Let me know your thoughts.
I was listening to the radio this morning and heard a segment about a new book by Jayson Stark called, "The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History." One of the topics I love to write about is comparing different players. While I didn't really feel like researching almost 100 years of football to determine who is the most overrated and underrated of all time, I decided to do a list for active players today. The positions I went by were Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, and Secondary. As I've stated in previous posts, I don't rate kickers and punters, because they are not football players. Without further delay, here is my list.
Quarterback
Underrated: Marc Bulger (Rams) - He has been a starter since the middle of the 2002 season. In that time, he has one season below 63% completion. He has 95 touchdowns against only 59 interceptions. He has been fairly durable, having only one season in the last four where he failed to start at least 14 games. He has three seasons of over 3,800 yards. Yet with Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Mike Martz, and all the big names that have been there since 2002, you don't hear his name as much as you should. Part of the problem is that the Rams went to two Super Bowls from 1999 to 2001. Kurt Warner had two of the best regular seasons in NFL history in that time spanned. Since Bulger took over they have won one playoff game. However, much of that can be attributed to bad coaching, an aging roster, and a poor defense. The quarterback is not the problem, evidenced by his two Pro Bowls. I like the direction the team is headed, and with a solid postseason run; Marc Bulger should look to get more attention.
Overrated: Donovan McNabb (Eagles) - I was looking at going with Ron Mexico here, but I think everyone recognizes him as a tremendous athlete, that has never realized his full potential. Donovan McNabb has gotten a lot of publicity for a lot of reasons. He led the Eagles to four straight NFC championship games from 2001-2004. He has been to a Super Bowl. He makes exciting plays with both his arm and his legs. He is a likeable player. However, when you look at the numbers, I don't see it. He has one 3,500 yard season in his career. He threw for over thirty touchdowns one time. He has a career completion percentage of 58.2% in a West Coast Offense. To his credit, he has 152 career touchdown passes to just 72 interceptions, and he is an excellent rushing quarterback. However, over the past 5 years he has managed to start over 10 games just twice, and excluding his 2004 season with TO, he hasn't thrown more than 18 touchdown passes. His value continued to plummet with the success the team experienced under Jeff Garcia. I think he is still a quality starting quarterback. However, I think people tend to lump him in with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as one of the league's elite quarterbacks. I don't think that is a reality either.
Running Back
Underrated: Brian Westbrook (Eagles) - Westbrook's problem is that he plays for a coach that loves to pass the ball, and running backs are judged by how many rushing yards they tally. Brian Westbrook is one of the most dangerous combinations of running and receiving. Since 2003, his lowest rushing and receiving total is 945 yards back in 2003. He has been over 1,200 every year since. Last year he totaled 1,916 rushing and receiving yards. He is averaging about 9.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns per season since 2003. However, he has only been to one Pro Bowl back in 2004. I think his value to the Eagles was further demonstrated by losing McNabb last season and not missing a beat. For as much experience as Jeff Garcia had, there is no way he could have done what he did without Brian Westbrook. While Westbrook is not in the Tomlinson and Johnson class, there are too many running backs mentioned before him.
Overrated: Clinton Portis (Redskins) - This pick has nothing to do with his recent comments about what happens on Ron Mexico's estate stays on Ron Mexico's estate. He is a talented runner. I'm not even basing this on being hurt last season. I just don't think he has been that effective since leaving Denver. His first two seasons in Denver were amazing. He rushed for almost 1550 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns per season. He made the Pro Bowl in 2003. Denver was so impressed they traded him to Washington for Champ Bailey. Since then, his rushing average has dropped to just a tad over 4 yards per carry. In 29 games with Denver, he had 29 touchdowns. In 39 games with Washington, he has 23 touchdowns. He hasn't broke 300 yards receiving since he left Denver. Some would argue that injuries and coaching have caused his numbers to decline. I would argue that he was a good running back that looked great in Denver, because that is what Denver does for good running backs. Once he was removed from that element, we see what he really is. He is not a top 5 running back. Furthermore, he is playing this season to remain in the top 10 running backs. I think the fact that Washington signed Betts to an extension shows that Washington isn't as sold on him as when they traded Champ Bailey to get him.
Wide Receiver
Underrated: Donald Driver (Packers) - I'm not saying Donald Driver is in the Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, or Chad Johnson class. Donald Driver's problem is that he has played in the shadow of Brett Favre and Ahman Green. He has been a great player on a bad team the last couple of seasons. What people need to realize is that this receiver has had four 1,000 yard seasons in the last five. He has had three straight 1,200 yard seasons. He has had three straight seasons with over 80 receptions. His has yet to crack the 10 touchdown mark, although he has two seasons with 9 touchdowns. However with Green injured and on the declne the last few seasons, and no threat opposite of him since Javon Walker left, he has been the only good option in the offense. If Green Bay's running game can improve this year, and Jennings develops into a solid number two, Donald Driver should be able to do even bigger things this year.
Overrated: Santana Moss (Redskins) - I really have nothing against the Washington Redskins. I just think that if you asked people if Santana Moss is an elite wide receiver, a lot of people would say yes. His only Pro Bowl season in 2005 was a fantastic season. He had 80 plus catches, 1400 plus yards, and 9 touchdowns. Besides that, he has one other 1,000 yard season. He also had 10 touchdown catches that year. The other three seasons he started he didn't crack 900 yards and didn't have more than 6 touchdown catches. While he is very athletic and has shown glimpses of greatness, he has never been able to put it all together for consecutive seasons, something that elite wide receivers need to do. Again coaching, injuries, and quarterback shuffles have hurt him. However, I think this guy is ranked a lot higher than his production suggests he should.
Tight End
Underrated: Ben Watson (Patriots) - He doesn't get mentioned as a top tight end; mainly because of his short time in the league, the offense he plays in, and the time he shared with Daniel Graham. Ben Watson is as gifted as any tight end in football. The Patriots prefer to spread the ball around to many different players. However, he did have 49 catches for 643 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the absence of a big wide receiving threat. I think if he played on a team that involved him more in their offense, his speed and athleticism would produce bigger numbers. It will be interesting to see if the additions of Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth help or hurt his production. My guess is that with Daniel Graham gone, and safeties concentrating on stopping the deep threats; Ben Watson is going to be seeing a lot of single coverage from linebackers and will be in store for a big year.
Overrated: Jeremy Shockey (Giants) - I'm not saying that Jeremy Shockey isn't a good football player. I'm saying that I think people like to put Jeremy Shockey in the same category as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Shockey has one 70 catch season, which was his rookie year. He has never had 1,000 yard season. He hasn't even had a 900 yard season. The most touchdown catches he has had in a season is 7. His 24 touchdowns in 69 games do not scream elite status. To put it in perspective, Gates has 34 touchdowns in 61 games. He has a 1,000 yard plus season, and two 900 yards plus seasons. Gonzalez has 6 such seasons, including the last 4 seasons. I think the temptation is to lump these three players into the same category as superstar tight ends. I think it is clear that while Shockey is a very good tight end, Gates and Gonzalez are in a class by themselves.
Offensive Lineman
Underrated: Mark Tauscher (Packers) - He is just a very solid player ever since he was drafted. Started in 2000 as a seventh round pick. From 2002 to 2004, many people considered the Packers and the Chiefs to have the best offensive lines in football. He rarely jumps offside, and is hardly ever called for holding. He is effective both as a run blocker and pass blocker. However, he has never made a Pro Bowl. When people think of great tackles, Mark Tauscher is far from the top of most people's list. However, he has been a solid part of the solid Green Bay Packer offensive line the last 8 seasons.
Overrated: Eric Steinbach (Browns) - I wanted to put Leonard Davis here, but while he was overpaid, I don't think anyone besides Dallas considers him to be that good. This is the hardest position to pick, as offensive linemen as a whole are underrated. It isn't like the media is running around doing weekly stories about the offensive line. However, I think that for not playing in a Pro Bowl, a 7-year, $49.5 million contract (of which $17 million is guaranteed) to a guard would qualify as overrated. At least when Steve Hutchinson signed his big deal, he had helped lead the Seahawks to the Super Bowl and was coming off 3 Pro Bowl Seasons. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game. I think Eric Steinbach is a fantastic football player. I'm just not sure he is $49 million good.
Defensive Lineman
Underrated - John Henderson (Jaguars) - I think John Henderson goes under the radar for a number of reasons. First, he plays in a small market. The Colts have been the class of that division. Defensive Tackles tend to go unnoticed, because they don't put up a lot of sacks. Also, he plays with another great defensive tackle in Marcus Stroud, who has been to 3 Pro Bowls. Make no mistake, John Henderson is a big reason whey the Jaguars have had such a successful defense the last few seasons. Henderson has played in every game since he was drafted. He actually has more sacks than Stroud. He also has more tackles. All of this despite having one less season than Stroud.
Overrated: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (Packers) - He is probably one of the more famous names on the Packer's defense. Has a cool nickname in KGB. Anyone that has watched him play in Green Bay regrets the day the Packers gave him $39 million dollars. From 2001 to 2004 he at least registered double digit sack totals. It at least made it bearable when he was getting run over. The last two years he has 8 sacks and 6 sacks. He is a liability against the run, and not sacking the quarterback enough to justify it. The Packers had to move Jenkins to defense end on running situations to stop the onslaught teams were mounting toward KGB on running downs. He is a good situational pass rusher, who many people thought of as an every down defensive lineman. I have heard so many experts say he would be more effective if he had help on the other side. Reggie White got his teammates at least 10 extra sacks a season, just because teams were concentrating on him. I have never seen KGB make anyone better on his team.
Linebacker
Underrated: Donnie Edwards (Kansas City) - Defensive players are judged by the glamour statistics. Sacks and Interceptions. Donnie Edwards is a guy that has never had more than 3 sacks in a season. However, he has been over 100 tackles every year since 1997, or his second season in the league. The San Diego Chargers didn't have the money to keep him, but they are not happy that he is back with Kansas City, meaning they will face him twice this season. While sacks are not his specialty, he tackles well, stops the run, and is a defensive leader on the field.
Overrated: Dan Morgan (Panthers) - I'm not picking on Dan Morgan, because he is coming off serious injury. I think this is a player that was a tremendous athlete at the University of Miami, who has never translated to being a great player in the pros. The Panthers are considered to have a great defensive. When people think of the Panthers defense, they think of Peppers, Jenkins, and Morgan. The most tackles he has had in a season are 101. He has 7 sacks and 5 interceptions in 56 games. He has never scored a defensive touchdown. Yet he made the Pro Bowl in 2004. Part of the problem is that he can't seem to stay on the field. However, while I acknowledge that he has shown glimpses of being a good middle linebacker, I haven't been as impressed as many people.
Secondary
Underrated: Asante Samuel (Patriots) - Just as I don't hate the Redskins, I am not a huge Patriots fan. I just call them the way I see them. I understand that the Patriots are the best run front office in football. I also know that if they don't want to give him big money, it is probably the right move. He just finished his fourth season in the league. He is coming off a 10 interception season last year. He has been a great starting cornerback the last two seasons. He was one of the cornerbacks that were asked to step in when Ty Law left. The Patriots haven't missed a beat since then. This guy doesn't get mentioned as a top cornerback, because of the team first concept the Patriots have established over the last 5 seasons. This guy is a top NFL talent and I think the Patriots would be foolish to let him get away.
Overrated: Nate Clements (49ers) - A lot of this had to do with that ridiculous contract he signed this year. I understand he was the best defensive back on the market. But 80 million? The one good thing I will say about him is that he is durable. He has played in 16 games every year of his career. I also know that there is more to evaluating a cornerback than interception totals. However, he has had 5 interceptions the last two seasons. He made one Pro Bowl in 2004, which doesn't mean much, seeing Buffalo is a small market and a bad team since he got there. I just don't equate him to Champ Bailey, Chris McCallister, Ronde Barber, or some of the other elite cornerbacks. I definitely would not have gotten into that bidding war if I were an NFL GM.
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan that has a second favorite team, the NY Jets. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
In 2008 I was runner up to Boltbacker21 in Mike Greenspire's NFL Blogger Competition. In addition to this blog I am also the Senior NFL Writer for the Fantasy Football Maniaxs. The address is http://www.fa ntasyfootball maniaxs.com. I hope you enjoy the blog and check out the website for any fantasy football needs.
