Every season we hear about the NFL's stars. The Patriots will win the AFC East, because they are led by Tom Brady. The Colt's offense is unstoppable with Peyton Manning leading the charge. The Chargers will dominate the AFC West, behind the breathtaking talents of LT.
The NFL like any other professional league is a Star's League. It's the rare players that can make plays that no one else can that draw many of us to our TVs. People want to see Favre with the ball in his hands and 2:00 minutes left in a close game. People want to see LT juke his way to the endzone. People want to see Randy Moss make the spectacular leaping catch to win the game.
However, there are a couple things to remember. 1) There are 32 teams in the NFL and not enough star players to go around. Not every team that makes the playoffs has star players with the name recognition of Brady, Favre, Manning, or LT, and 2) Those players were once unsung heroes. In Manning's and LT's cases it was top picks that were expected to star, but had to prove they were worthy of their high selection. In Brady and Favre's case they were people not expected to star right away that snuck up on us.
2008 is a year of transition. The Colts have won the AFC South every season since 2003. The Patriots have won the AFC East every season since 2003. The Chargers have won the AFC West in 2004, 2006, and 2007. The Seahawks have won the NFC West every season since 2004. We have come to expect these franchises to contend year in and year out. This year none of those four teams leads their division at this point. The Seahawks are awful and the other three have been average at best.
Furthermore, a lot of star players that we are used to doing well are either in new places or taking a back seat. Brady injured his knee in the opener and is out for the season. Manning had two knee surgeries in the preseason. While he has not missed a game, he is not the Peyton Manning we expect to see each Sunday. LT has been slowed with a toe injury. He has only 446 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns through his first seven games. At this pace he would he would finish with career lows in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Finally, even though Brett Favre has shown flashes of brilliance, it still doesn't seem right to see him in that shade of green.
2008 is being defined by players and teams that are not household names. It is a changing of the guard in the NFL. To list all of them would be an impossible task. However, here are four players on three teams that have been dominating the NFL in terms of solid statistics and helping their team win games. These are players that we wouldn't have necessarily expected to dominate at the start of the season. They are my Unsung Heroes of 2008.
1) Kyle Orton - Who has more touchdown passes, Kyle Orton or Peyton Manning? Who has a higher QB rating? Who has more passing yards? Whose team has won more games?
Granted, Kyle Orton has played seven games to Peyton Manning's six. However, at the start of the season no one would have thought that the answer to any of those questions would be Kyle Orton, much less all of them. Here are their numbers:
I was as critical as anyone this off-season of the Bear's failure to pick up a quarterback either in free agency or the draft. I thought Kyle Orton was a bad NFL quarterback and that Rex Grossman was a terrible NFL quarterback. I was terribly mistaken. Orton is passing the ball well and making a lot of plays.
Some of Orton's failures have been his fault and some has been a bad situation. The Bears always thought Rex Grossman would be their guy. They drafted him in the first round back in the 2003 draft. He was going to be the franchise quarterback the Bears have been looking for since Sid Luckman retired after the 1950 season.
However, injuries prevented Rex from seeing much of the field in his first three seasons. The result was eight starts from 2003-2005. Kyle Orton was drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. He was expected to be nothing more than a backup for Grossman. Grossman was hurt in preseason and Orton became the starter for 15 games that season, compiling a 10-5 record. With nine touchdowns, 13 picks, and a 59.7 QB rating many thought the Bears were winning in spite of him, not because of him.
Orton was benched at the end of the season and Rex started in the playoff loss that year and helped lead the Bears to their Super Bowl appearance in 2006. Orton became an afterthought. It was not the best situation for the young quarterback to be put into. Orton handled that badly. Reports in the Chicago media focused on his partying and not his preparation. In three starts last year the Bears went 2-1 with Orton throwing three touchdowns, two picks, and compiling a 73.9 QB rating. No one saw this coming.
However, Orton worked very hard to prepare for the 2008 season, believed in himself, and beat Rex Grossman out for the starting job. He has been an offensive star for the 4-3 Bears and his solid play has helped the defense not have to shoulder the entire burden. Brian Urlacher and the defense are still the heart and soul of the team. But without Orton managing the offense the Bears would not be in first place in the NFC North.
What makes this even more impressive is that Kyle Orton was given no help on offense. The line was getting old and had to replace a couple starters. Their first round pick, OT Chris Williams has a herniated disc and will probably not play until later this season, if at all. Benson was let go leaving Forte, Adrian Peterson, and Kevin Jones to split time. Berrian signed a big deal in Minnesota and Muhammed signed with Carolina.
Let’s put this in perspective. Aaron Rodgers has had a great start to the NFL season. He has had the pressure of replacing a legendary player. However, he has had a lot of help. The Packers returned Jennings, Driver, Jones, Lee, and Grant. They tallied a combined 4,324 rushing and receiving yards and scored a combined 30 rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2007.
Compare that to the Bears. Forte was playing for Tulane in 2007. Brandon Lloyd and Marty Booker were not on the roster. Booker, Clark, Davis, Hester, Lloyd, Olson combined for 1,972 rushing and receiving yards and scored nine rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2007.
Despite that discrepancy in supporting cast Orton has played almost as well as Rodgers. Orton has one more yard passing than Rodgers, only two less touchdowns, same amount of picks, and similar completion percentage and quarterback rating. Kyle Orton has come out having a big year and has carried this offense when no one expected him to be able to do that. He is an unsung hero for the Bears that people are quickly rediscovering. If he can keep up his solid play the Bears will be in the thick of the NFC North race competing for the division title or a wildcard spot.
2) Jason Campbell - This is another quarterback that faced great adversity in 2007. Jason Campbell didn't exactly set the world on fire last year. In 13 starts the Redskins went 6-7. The good was a 34-3 victory over Detroit where he went 23 for 29 and threw two touchdowns and 0 picks. However, there was too much bad like the game against the Patriots where he went only 21 for 36 with 197 yards, one touchdown and one pick. The Redskins lost 52-7. Overall, the Redskins struggled to involve their receivers. The Redskins didn't get their first touchdown throw to a wide receiver until Week 10 against the Eagles. Santana Moss had a below average season. The offense looked lost.
Gibbs had to replace Campbell with journeymen Todd Collins after Campbell was injured in a win over the Bears. Collins was a 36-year-old quarterback that had not started since 1997 for the Buffalo Bills. He led the team to three consecutive wins, a 106.4 QB rating, five touchdowns to 0 picks, and wins over the NY Giants, Minnesota Vikings, and Dallas Cowboys. Collins started the playoff loss at Seattle. Many thought the Redskins may go with him as the starter in 2008 and let Campbell develop from the bench.
The Redskins switched coaches this off-season. They went from Joe Gibbs to Jim Zorn, who utilizes the West Coast Offense. Campbell had every reason to be disappointed this offseason and drown himself in a world of self-pity. Instead he studied the offense and has started all seven games. For a team that was the favorite to be last in the NFC East, the Redskins sit in second place at 5-2, just one half game behind the Super Bowl Champion Giants.
Here are Campbell’s 2007 numbers vs. 2008 numbers:
He has drastically improved in every statistical area. I understand the Redskins are winning for reasons other than Jason Campbell. They rank third in rushing yards per game. Clinton Portis is dominating the NFL again. The defense is eighth in points allowed, sixth in total yards allowed, seventh in rushing yards allowed, and 12th in passing yards allowed. But their biggest margin of victory this season is seven points in a 24-17 win over the Cardinals. A team can't keep winning close games if their QB is turning the ball over. To have only one lost fumble and no picks in 202 attempts is a testament to Campbell's development as a game manager.
Bernie Kosar holds the NFL record for consecutive passes without a pick at 308. Bart Starr had the previous mark at 294. Starr set his record in the 1963 and 1964 seasons. He had been in the NFL since 1956. Kosar set his record in 1990 and 1991. He had been with the Browns since 1985. These were veteran quarterbacks that had been in playoff games and were battle tested, not a third year quarterback in his first year learning a new offensive system. Don’t tell me that he ran that offense at Auburn and that experience prepared him for this. College and NFL are two different games. While the concepts may have been similar, the speed at which those concepts must be executed couldn’t be more different.
Portis and the defense are stealing all the headlines. Jason Campbell is an unsung hero that is breaking out in his third year. If he can continue to make plays and protect the ball the Redskins have an excellent chance of playing January football.
3) Michael Turner / Roddy White - Atlanta was a dump in 2007. Bobby Petrino was a disaster going 3-10 before resigning. The team was bombarded by the conviction of Michael Vick on federal dog fighting charges. They finished 29th in points scored, points allowed, and 30th in point differential. Roddy White was one of the few Falcons that had a good year. He had 83 receptions for 1202 yards and six touchdowns, despite playing with Joey Harrington and an awful team. Hardly anyone paid attention to his solid season.
The Falcons knew they had to make a quick turnaround to get fans to forget about Michael Vick. Their two big off-season moves were signing Michael Turner and drafting Matt Ryan to play quarterback. They put Ryan in as the starter from opening day and the result has been a 4-2 start. However, I think it is a little early to call someone a breakout player or unsung hero that has only six games of NFL experience. He has been solid, but he has had two unsung heroes that have helped accelerate his transition from Boston College to the NFL.
Let's start with Michael Turner. Everyone knew Michael Turner could be a good NFL back. He had the good fortune of backing up LT in San Diego. The result was only one start in his four years there. His best season was 2006 when he rushed for 502 yards and two touchdowns. While his opportunities were limited he got to learn from one of the best backs to ever wear a NFL uniform.
This year he is finally getting his shot as the starter. He is making up for lost time. In six games he has 128 attempts, 597 yards rushing, six touchdowns, and a 4.7 yards per carry average. His 597 yards rank third in the NFL and the two backs ahead of him have played one more game. At this pace he would finish the season with 1,592 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns. That's not bad for a career back up who is having a much better year than the man that started ahead of him, LT.
Then you have Roddy White. As I stated previously he had 83 for 1202 yards and 6 touchdowns playing with Joey Harrington and a Falcon team that was negatively impacted by the Michael Vick scandal. This year he has a QB that is able to get him the ball on a regular basis. White ranks third in the NFL with 566 yards receiving. He is averaging an impressive 16.2 yards per catch on his 35 receptions. At this pace he would finish with 93 catches, 1,509 yards receiving, and eight touchdowns. That's not bad seeing he is playing with a rookie quarterback and quarterbacks are supposed to need three years to develop as quality starters.
The Falcons haven't gotten a lot of positive attention since 2007. Their most known player is probably still Michael Vick. Matt Ryan is the high profile draft pick that was brought in to change that. Quarterbacks get the most attention and Ryan has held up his end of the bargain. Credit that success to his solid work ethic and a lot of help from these guys. Turner and White are the unsung heroes of the Atlanta Falcons.
I'm not pretending the Falcons have all their problems fixed. Rebuilding is a process and they have a long way to go. They play in a tough division with two teams one half game ahead of them at 5-2 (Bucs & Panthers). The Saints are 3-4, but could still make a move in the division. However, the Falcons are doing something no one thought they would do this year, which is win and be competitive. This was supposed to be a contender for the first pick in the NFL draft. Instead they will be contending for a division title or a wildcard.
That is my list of unsung heroes. Who are your breakout players of 2008? Who do you think is flying under the radar, but making a huge difference for their team? Let me know your thoughts.
This is my second of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC East is probably the most competitive division headed into the 2008 season. The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Dallas Cowboys won 13 games and had the number one seed in the NFC. The Redskins won their last 4 games to make the playoffs as the final wildcard. Finally, the Eagles finished strong and were a very dangerous 8-8 team at the end of the season that did not qualify for the postseason. The only other division that has a claim to being as competitive as the NFC East would be the AFC South, which also had 3 teams qualify for the playoffs in 2007.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)Dallas Cowboys
07 Record: 13-3
Points Scored: 455 (2nd)
Points Allowed: 325 (13th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule:134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Dallas Cowboys had a very impressive start to their 2007 season. In their first 13 games they went 12-1 with their only loss being to the New England Patriots. In their first 12 games they outscored their opponents 395-248, or by an average of 12.25 points per game. After their 37-27 victory against 10-1 Green Bay they looked poised to be the NFC favorite to take on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, things didn’t go according to plan. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games and were outscored 60-77. Then the Cowboys were upset in the playoffs, by the eventual champion NY Giants, 21-17. It was a very disappointing end to a season that looked destined to end with a Super Bowl appearance.
The Cowboys had a load of talent on their roster in 2007. They sent a record 11 players to the Pro Bowl, 7 of which were starters. The number one strength on the Cowboys was the offensive line. 3 of their 7 Pro Bowl starters came from that unit, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode. With Tony Romo given plenty of time to throw the ball and the numerous great weapons they had on offense the Cowboys put up points with great ease. Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns in his first full year starting. Jason Witten had a career year at tight end with 96 catches for 1145 yards and 7 touchdowns. Terrell Owens had 81 catches for 1355 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marion Barber posted 975 rushing yards and 282 receiving yards to go along with his 12 touchdowns. Nick Folk made the Pro Bowl as the NFC Kicker.
What it adds up to is an offense that dominated the NFC. Furthermore, their only key loss on offense was Julius Jones, who signed with Seattle. The Cowboys have taken care of that loss. They added RB Felix Jones in the first round and TE Martellus Bennett to play opposite Witten in the second round.
The only need the Cowboys did not address this season was wide receiver. TO is still an elite NFL receiver, but he is going to be 35 years old. Terry Glenn was hurt until the final game of the season. He is going to be 34. Patrick Crayton had a solid year filling in for Glenn, but still has a ways to go.
It is obvious the Cowboys would be in trouble if TO missed significant time. Teams don’t have backups that can produce at the same level as him. He is an elite wide receiver. Still without him in the lineup they go from scary to below average at the receiver position. He must find a way to stay healthy and play as close to 16 games as possible, something he hasn’t done since 2001.
Weaknesses: The defense was the major issue with the Cowboys in 2007. The Cowboys had a great front 7. They were able to finish 6th in rushing yards allowed. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware was named a starter to the Pro Bowl. He had 14 sacks. That was another area the Cowboys excelled at, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks. They also did well forcing turnovers. The Cowboys finished 6th in the NFL with 19 picks. Ken Hamlin and Terrance Newman were chosen as Pro Bowl reserves. Both started for the Cowboys in their secondary.
What the Cowboys didn’t do is stop the pass very well. They finished 13th in the league in that regard. As a result of the yards they gave up in the passing game and the 19 interceptions that Tony Romo threw the Cowboys gave up 20.3 points per game, which ranked 13th. For all the great plays Tony Romo makes he needs to cut down on the interceptions if the Cowboys are going to be playing February football.
I’m not saying the Cowboys were horrible on defense. They did a lot of things well and their weaknesses are not that bad in the whole scheme of things. However, if the Cowboys want to reach their desired destination as Super Bowl Champions, they need to sure up those areas.
The Cowboys tried to do that this offseason. They made their second first round pick a corner in Michael Jenkins. They also traded for PacMan Jones. If he can stay out of trouble and gain reinstatement from the NFL, he should be able to help this team. The signing of Zach Thomas could be big as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice veteran presence in the middle of the Cowboy’s Defense.
Prediction: It is either the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. The Cowboys have made the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. As an organization, they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Combined with the talent they bring back and the new talent they acquired via 2 first round draft picks, Zach Thomas, and PacMan Jones; expectations will be through the roof. Chemistry will be a big issue in 2008. While the talent of the Cowboys is not questioned, how that talent will interact in the locker room still is. Also Tony Romo needs to cut down on his distractions off the field. There is nothing wrong with him using his celebrity to his advantage, but it shouldn’t be spilling onto the football field. He has to minimize those things as much as possible.
The Cowboys always have a brutal divisional schedule. They get 4 playoff games in the division and the Philadelphia Eagles who beat them at the end of last season in Dallas. Their out of conference schedule appears to be a little tougher than 2007. While the Patriots and Packers were very tough, those were the only two-playoff teams they faced outside the division. This year they get Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is difficult to say if those teams will be as good in 2008 as they were a year ago. Pittsburgh and Cleveland also provide some competitive games. I think the Cowboys will have roughly the same record as they did in 2007, but I don’t expect them to jump out to the 12-1 start they did a year ago. If the Cowboys can cut down on their turnovers and stop the pass better in 2008, there is no reason this team will not finish as the NFC’s number one seed for the second year in a row.
2008 Strength of Schedule:133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the division since 2000. The Eagles have won the division 5 times and made the playoffs 6 times. Prior to 2007 the Eagles had missed the playoffs only once, which was in 2005 during the season of the TO circus.
However, last season the Eagles finished in last place in the NFC East and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Still the Eagles had a number of good things working for them. Most last place teams finish 4-12, not 8-8. The Eagles finished the season strong and had it not been for a 3 game losing streak to end November and begin December the Eagles could have made the playoffs.
On offense, Brian Westbrook quietly had a 2,104 all-purpose yard season. He also scored 12 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback was coming off a serious knee injury in 2006 and the Eagles did not have a dominant receiving core; Westbrook should be applauded for his productivity in 2007. He is the most complete running back in the NFL not name LT.
Donovan McNabb did fairly well coming back from knee surgery. He started 14 games and had 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to go with his 89.9 QB rating. Kevin Curtis and McNabb had good chemistry at times. Curtis was able to finish with 1,110 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.
However, as usual the main strength of the Eagles was their defense. Under Jimmy Johnson the Eagles have been a mainstay in the top rankings of the NFL’s defenses. The Eagles 300 points allowed ranked 9th in the NFL. They also ranked 10th in yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. Trent Cole registered 12.5 sacks.
Weaknesses: The Eagles had 3 main weaknesses in 2007. The first was a lack of quality playmakers. Other than Brian Westbrook, there is no one on the Eagles that keeps defensive coordinators up into all hours of the night game planning.
Some will point to Kevin Curtis and suggest that he has the potential to be a number one receiver as evidenced by his 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is blindly looking at stats and not looking at how they were obtained. In week 3 Curtis had the game of his life. He had 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means in the other 15 games he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and 1 touchdown every 5 games. That just is not acceptable from a number one receiver. Reggie Brown also regressed in 2007. He went from 8 touchdowns in 2006 to 4 in 2007 and his yards dropped from 816 to 780. He did not have the breakout year he was hoping for. The Eagles did add DeShaun Jackson to provide depth in the return game and at the 3rd receiver spot. However, they were not able to obtain that impact wide receiver this offseason.
The second problem was their return team. The fumbles they had in punt return game against Green Bay alone cost them that game. They needed to find a quality return man as Westbrook is to valuable to risk injury at that position. Jackson should be an immediate impact in that regard.
The final weakness was in the secondary. The Eagles ranked 18th in yards allowed and their defense finished tied for last in the NFL in interceptions with just 11. Part of that was due to the rash of injuries they suffered in their secondary at the beginning of the season. That was the motivation for landing the prize of the 2008 free agency period in Samuel. He is a great playmaker that should fit into the Eagles secondary. If Brown, Shepherd, and Dawkins can stay healthy the Eagles have the potential to make a lot more plays in the secondary. It will also give Jimmy Johnson more flexibility to blitz knowing he has the secondary to cover the receivers in one-on-one coverage. That should be a big boost for the Eagles in their team sack numbers.
Prediction: The problem with picking the Eagles to do anything is you never know if Donovan McNabb is going to play a whole season. 2004 is the last season he stayed healthy. Since then he has missed 15 of a possible 48 games with injury. If he is not able to play 13-16 games it is difficult to imagine that the Eagles have the necessary parts in place to survive in a brutal NFC East.
Regardless, you can always count on Andy Reid and Jimmy Johnson to keep the Eagles ship steady and that starts with their strong defense. I don’t see McNabb returning to his 2004 numbers. I don’t believe the Eagles have the offensive weapons in place to do so. However, they don’t need him to do that. If he could just get back to his 2000 and 2001 production when he threw in the low 3,000 yard range and low 20 touchdown range the Eagles should be in great shape, given the emergence of Brian Westbrook as an elite NFL playmaker and a defense that is capable of stopping people. Donovan McNabb completing passes and taking care of the ball is enough for this team to win. That is something he is very good at as his interceptions per attempt is one of the best in NFL history. He started to look more like his old self at the end of the season.
Last year was expected, as he was coming off a serious ACL tear. Now that he is one year removed, he should be able to relax more, play with more confidence, and take the Eagles back to the playoffs. While I don’t believe they have enough offensive weapons to win the division, I would think that 10 wins are well within their reach.
Philadelphia Eagle’s Record: 10-6 – NFC East 2nd Place; NFC #5 Seed
3)New York Giants
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 373 (14th)
Points Allowed: 351 (17th)
Playoff Result: Won Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule: 133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The NY Giants were the most unlikely of Super Bowl Champions. At 10-6 they were the 5th seed in the NFC and were faced with having to win 4 games away from home. They had lost 2 of their final 3 games of the season, but seem to gain momentum with their strong performance against the Patriots in the season finale. Still #5 seeds are not supposed to win Super Bowls.
However, the Giants had gone 7-1 in the regular season on the road, losing their only road game in the opener. The NY Giants rode that road dominance to 11 straight road victories and the Super Bowl trophy.
The strength of the New York Giants is their front 4 on defense. Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Fred Robbins form one of the best defensive front fours in the entire NFL. The NY Giants generated to most pressure on the quarterback in 2007 generating an amazing 53 sacks.
At the beginning of the season the linebackers and secondary could not cover anyone. As the season progressed, the Giants got better in that regard. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster became much better at covering the pass in the second half of the season. While the Giants did lose Gibril Wilson to the Raiders in free agency, they also drafted Kenny Phillips to come into the organization and compete for the starting safety spot.
The linebacker spot is the unit on defense with the most questions. Pierce is still a strong middle linebacker and Mathias Kiwanuka should be ready for the start of the season. He was injured toward the end of the 2007 regular season. This is a unit that did not begin to gel until later in the season, but once everything came together the defense was able to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl title. Mitchell and Torbor were loss to free agency, so they will have to replace them in 2008.
On offense, the strength of the team was their running game. The NY Giants finished 4th in the NFL with a host of running backs. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns all contributed at times in 2007.
Eli Manning had a very average regular season. He had a 73.9 rating and 20 interceptions to go with his 3,336 yards passing and 23 touchdown throws. But was able to put everything together and lead his team to the Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress is a fantastic wide receiver and had 12 touchdown catches. Jeremy Shockey is a good tight end, but was the subject of trade rumors this offseason after the NY Giants offense didn’t miss a beat in the wake of his injury. He is still very talented and will help an offense that features Toomer, Smith, Tyree, and rookie Mario Manningham.
Weaknesses: The NY Giants have a couple of big question marks headed into the season. 1) Which Eli Manning is going to show up in 2008? The one that killed his team with a poor completion percentage and 20 interceptions or the one that started playing after the NY Giants lost to the Patriots in the season finale. If the Giants are going to excel in the regular season, Eli has to take care of the ball for an entire 16 game season. While I don’t expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, I don’t think he will return to his 2007 regular season numbers. I expect something in between the two. I would think that he would get 3,500 yards, 25 touchdown throws, and 12-15 interceptions.
The second question is whether Michael Strahan is going to retire or comeback for another season. Personally, I think he would be unwise to come back in 2008. He will be 37 in November and what better way to go out than win a Super Bowl in your final game. He is nowhere close to catching Bruce Smith for the NFL record in sacks and now that he is a champion he has nothing left to prove. Anything short of repeating would be a disappointing season.
If he doesn’t comeback, how is that going to affect the dynamics of the Giants front 4? Similar to the Packers who are losing Favre, there is a lot of talent in that front 7. However, because none of those players have played without Strahan, it is unclear whether or not the Giants defense will be as dominant without him. The Giants do not have a good record in recent years when he doesn’t play.
Prediction: The Giants are a difficult team to predict for 2008. They basically played 2 seasons in 2007. Week 1-15 where they turned the ball over too much and had problems stopping downfield passing offenses and Week 16 through the Super Bowl where they were difficult to move the ball against and took care of the ball. Regardless, they averaged 21.25 points per game in the postseason, so if anyone thinks this offense is going to evolve into the 2007 Patriots, I think they are going to be in shock. This is a team that is going to run the ball, take their shots downfield, and rely on their defense to win games. I think as their younger receivers develop, we may see them put a few more points on the board.
As I stated earlier, the big key is going to be the decision of Michael Strahan and whether or not he wants to return in 2008. If he does they will be a formidable opponent and will challenge the Cowboys for the division. If he doesn’t they still will be very good, but probably in the running for the final playoff spot. I don’t think he is going to comeback, and therefore I am predicting about the same record in 2008 and the #6 seed for the defending champions.
NY Giants Record:9-7 – NFC East 3rd Place; NFC #6 seed
4)Washington Redskins
07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: In 2007 the Redskins looked like a ship that was sinking fast. After a 5-3 start to the season, they lost 4 games in a row and were sitting at 5-7. Sean Taylor was tragically shot dead in his home. When the Redskins lost to the Bills largely on a timeout mishap that gave the Bills a field goal that was 15 yards closer to win the game the season looked to be lost. However, the Redskins won their last 4 games of the season guided by the veteran backup Todd Collins, they were able to sneak into the playoffs as the # 6 seed before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in what would be Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibb’s last game.
Jim Zorn is inheriting a strong cast of players. Clinton Portis was able to stay relatively healthy in 2007 and rushed for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jason Campbell was able to make good strides, despite not having much help at the receiver position. Todd Collins is a solid backup.
On defense the Redskins finished 4th against the run and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Their front 7 set the tempo for this defense. Andre Carter had 10.5 sacks.
The secondary was fairly average. LaRon Landry looks like the real deal at safety and Rodgers, Springs, and Smoot are solid corners. The Redskins ranked 16th in passing yards allowed. Some games they were brilliant, such as Tampa Bay and Detroit when they allowed less than 100 yards passing. Other games like the road games against Dallas and New England they allowed way to many yards. The Redskins will have to find a way to replace Sean Taylor in their secondary. While I hate to talk Xs and Os when there was such a human tragedy involved, the fact still remains that the Redskins were a much tougher pass defense when he was starting. Replacing a player that was as talented as he was is difficult.
Weaknesses: The Redskins really struggled to move the ball threw the air. Part of that was Jason Campbell entering his first year as the full time starter. Anytime a team puts a young quarterback in the line up there are going to be up’s and downs. However, the fact remains that he had one touchdown pass or less in 10 of his 13 starts. That number has to improve.
A lot of that has to be blamed on the receivers. Portis had 11 touchdown runs and tight end Chris Cooley caught 8 touchdowns. However, no receiver caught a touchdown until James Thrash did in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is unacceptable. The Redskins overhauled the receiver position this offseason by drafting Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas in the 2nd round. I really liked the draft approach by the Redskins to get younger and bigger at wide receiver. Both are bigger receivers and should be better targets in the redzone.
Still, rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first year. While Randy Moss exploded into the league in Year 1, even great receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne took a few years to blossom. If this unit is going to be viable in 2008, Santana Moss must step up to the plate. The Redskins have to score more than 334 points playing in a division with Dallas, New York Giants, and Philly.
Prediction: The Redskins are in the unfortunate position of being in a very tough division. Jason Campbell is a nice quarterback that in a division like the NFC North would be in the running for the best quarterback in the division or in the AFC East would be in the running for best quarterback in the division not named Tom Brady. Here he is clearly the 4th quarterback in this division. Portis may be the 3rd best back in the division. Cooley made the Pro Bowl and isn’t even the best tight end in the division. The Redskins still lack the players at the skill positions to score enough points on a consistent basis to win the tough games they will have to play in the division. I like the moves they made in the draft and graded them very high. Still, those players will take a couple years to develop.
The schedule doesn’t set up as nice for the Redskins in 2008. In addition to the division, they have to travel to Seattle and play Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home. New Orleans is going to be a tough game. When you combine that with the 6 games they play in the division and I see them taking a step back in 2008.
Washington Redskin’s Record:7-9 – NFC East 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan that has a second favorite team, the NY Jets. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
In 2008 I was runner up to Boltbacker21 in Mike Greenspire's NFL Blogger Competition. In addition to this blog I am also the Senior NFL Writer for the Fantasy Football Maniaxs. The address is http://www.fa ntasyfootball maniaxs.com. I hope you enjoy the blog and check out the website for any fantasy football needs.
