I present to you my eighth regular season letter of the 2008 season. I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of Week Eight.
Standings
AFC East NFC East
1. New England (5-2) 1. New York Giants (6-1)
2. Buffalo (5-2) 2. Washington (6-2)
3. NY Jets (4-3) 3. Dallas (5-3)
4. Miami (3-4) 4. Philadelphia (4-3)
AFC South NFC South
1. Tennessee (7-0) 1. Carolina (6-2)
2. Jacksonville (3-4) 2. Tampa Bay (5-3)
3. Indianapolis (3-4) 3. Atlanta (4-3)
4. Houston (3-4) 4. New Orleans (4-4)
AFC North NFC North
1.Pittsburgh (5-2) 1.Chicago (4-3)
2. Baltimore (4-3) 2. Green Bay (4-3)
3.Cleveland (3-4) 3. Minnesota (3-4)
4.Cincinnati (0-8) 4. Detroit (0-7)
AFC West NFC West
1. Denver (4-3) 1. Arizona (4-3)
2. San Diego (3-5) 2. Seattle (2-5)
3. Oakland (2-5) 3. St Louis (2-5)
4. Kansas City (1-6) 4. San Francisco (2-6)
MVP of the Week: Drew Brees bounced back from an average performance against Carolina to have another highlight real game. He went 30 for 41 with 339 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks, and a 121.9 QB rating in the Saints 37-30 victory over the Chargers. Brian Westbrook bounced back from his injuries to dominate the Eagles. He had 22 carries for 167 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns to go along with 6 receptions for 42 yards. A couple young receivers dominated the week. Ted Ginn, Jr. had 7 catches for 175 yards and 0 touchdowns in the Dolphins upset of the Bills and Donnie Avery had 6 catches for 163 yards and 1 touchdown in a loss to the Patriots. Receivers dominated this week with 13 of them going over the 100 yard mark and another four of them getting between 90-99 yards receiving.
Loser of the Week: Vernon Davis would have to top the list. He has 4 catches for 29 yards. Seattle is looking impressive for the first time since Week 3’s win over the Rams. Yet Davis finds time to get a senseless 15 yard penalty for slapping Brian Russell after a 7 yard reception in he 3rd quarter. Good for Singletary for first laying the law down and then sending Davis to the showers. San Francisco needs that with a group of underachievers. We’ll see how they respond to Singletary’s old school approach. On the quarterback front, Big Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play very big on Sunday. He went 13 for 29 for 189 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 picks, and a 38.5 QB rating. It is hard to have a good game when you are running for your life and being sacked 5 times. Finally, Jacksonville’s woeful ground game returned this week. MJD had 12 carries for 29 yards and 0 touchdowns, while Fred Taylor chipped in 8 rushes for 24 yards and 0 touchdowns. That was not expected given the struggles Cleveland has shown stopping the run.
Game of the Week: There were two games that were clearly head and shoulders above the rest and were contrasting styles of how football is played. The first was the shootout across the pond. Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers combined for 680 yards and 6 touchdown passes in a wild 37-32 game.
Then in Pittsburgh the Giants and the Steelers played a defensive struggle with the Giants emerging as the victor, 21-14. Big Ben and Eli Manning combined for just 388 yards passing and each threw 1 touchdown. Jacobs was held to 18 carries for 47 yards. It was a hard fought defensive struggle that the Giants prevailed in by outscoring the Steelers 12-0 in the fourth quarter. The problems started when emergency long snapper James Harrison snapped the ball out of the end zone to give the Giants a safety. That took a 14-12 game to a 14-14 tie that the Giants eventually broke with a 2-yard TD pass to Kevin Boss with just 3:11 left in the contest.
The Bay of Pigs: Hard not to go with the 13-9 gem the Buccaneers and the Cowboys played in Dallas. Roy Williams scored the only touchdown on a 2-yard pass from Brad Johnson. After a 10-6 halftime lead the teams swapped 3rd quarter field goals and both teams were held scoreless in the 4th.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): There were a couple bad decisions, one by a winning head coach and one by a losing head coach. Sean Payton baffled me with his decision to take a safety. I’ve seen that done a couple of times and when used properly it is a great strategy. The reason I didn’t agree with it here, is because the Saints were ahead by 7 points. If the Chargers score a touchdown the worst possible scenario is you go to OT tied at 37-37. Furthermore, the Saints weren’t in danger of having to punt with limited room at the shadow of their own goal line, which is usually why you see a team take the safety in that situation. Brees had to run -26 yards backwards to take the safety.
A punt from the 26-yard line 9 times out of 10 is not getting blocked and goes at least 30 yards down field. The Saints instead chose to reduce their lead to 5 points and take the free kick. The result was that Darren Sproles returned a kick to midfield, which is what the Saints were trying to prevent in the first place. The Chargers had the ball with a chance to throw a Hail Mary, except now instead of to tie the game it was to win the game. It didn’t and the Saints still won. Still, I think this is an example of over thinking the situation and is also an example of what not to do at the end of a ball game.
Tony Dungy also deserves a mention. In a 14-14 game near the end of the 3rd quarter he decides it would be a great idea to go for it on 4th and 1 at midfield Then he doesn’t put the ball in the hands of his Hall of Fame playmaker, Peyton Manning, but instead runs it with Rhodes. Either way he should have punted the ball. He didn’t and the Titans stopped the run. That led to a field goal and a 17-14 lead for the Titans. That was awful strategy by Dungy.
Then, on the very next drive he had 4th and 2 at his own 34-yard line. Dungy went for it again and was unsuccessful again. This was the less egregious of the two, as they were kicking into the wind and would not have been able to make a 51-yard field goal. However, they could have taken a delay of game and tried to coffin corner kick the ball and pin Tennessee deep in it’s own territory. Tennessee capitalized on the good field position for a second straight possession and this time scored a touchdown to go up 24-14. It was the beginning of the 4th quarter blowout. While we love coaches that are aggressive and go for 4th and short this is an example of why coaches don’t do it. When those plays don’t work it can turn a competitive game into a blow out very quickly.
Injury Report: As of Tuesday morning there weren’t a lot of major news on the injury front, especially to star players. We’ll see if anything else materializes as we move on in the week.
Jason Witten was one of the bigger names that were injured on Sunday. He hurt his ribs and his status is uncertain until a MRI comes back, which likely will be on Wednesday.
Two quarterbacks that seem to be having a lot of problems are Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer, both of whom haven’ played in quite some time. It was rumored that Palmer may go on IR with his elbow injury and Hasselbeck is seeking a second opinion on his back. A return to the field in the near future for either QB seems likely.
After missing the Patriots game, Steven Jackson is expected to start for the Rams next week. He has an injured quad.
Plaxico Burress continues to suffer from a severe case of stupidity. He did not start on Sunday, because he skipped a treatment session last week. His antics make him a game time decision each week. Put Larry Johnson in that boat, who is expected to sit a second game after an assault charge.
Sean Springs and Jason Taylor are expected to miss the Redskins and Steelers Monday Night Game. Both have calf injuries. Clinton Portis injured his ankle again, but he is expected to play.
Overall Impressions of Week 8:
1) – How bad is the AFC West? – This division was expected to be very bad and so far the AFC West has not disappointed. The teams are a combined 10-19. Denver leads the division at just 4-3. Despite not playing this weekend they were able to gain a half game on the entire division, as San Diego, Oakland, and Kansas City all lost.
It starts with the defenses. Kansas City ranks 31st in total defense, Denver ranks 30th, and San Diego ranks 28th. That leaves Oakland with a stellar 26th ranked defense as the best defensive team in the division. None of them can stop the run. San Diego is the best run stopping team giving up the 16th most yards in the NFL. Oakland is 2nd in the division with the 26th ranked run defense. Nobody stops the pass very well either. Kansas City heads up the division at 17.
What that means is that teams are scoring a lot of points against the AFC West. San Diego has the stingiest scoring defense in the division giving up 24.9 points per game. That ranks 24th in the NFL.
There are a number of reasons for this problem. Kansas City and Oakland are in complete rebuilding mode. Oakland had the 4th pick in the draft and Kansas City had the 5th pick in the draft. They were disasters last season on defense. Kansas City traded its best defender, Jared Allen to the Vikings. Even though they drafted Dorsey with the 5th pick, the result has been an even weaker defense than a year ago. Oakland used its first pick on running back Darren McFadden. They were busy in free agency and while Wilson has been a good signing, the jury is out on Hall and Kelly. Regardless, the defense has not gelled yet.
Denver had one of the worst run defenses I ever saw last season and did little in free agency or the draft to improve that area. That leaves San Diego, which suffered a devastating blow when Shawne Merriman was injured for the season before it even began. The result has been four teams that can’t stop anyone.
I don’t really see this improving. The result is going to be a lot more inconsistent play. I can see the AFC West champion emerging with 8 or 9 wins. Seeing defense wins championships, it seems inconceivable that the AFC West Champion will being playing for very long in January. The one hope for the division could be the Chargers. They have the most playoff experience among the other AFC West rosters. If LT can get healthy again they have the veteran leadership to turn this ship around. Based on their first 8 games, that looks like a long shot.
2) – What is wrong with the AFC South? – This is a division that did a complete 360. In 2007 this was arguably the toughest division in football. The Colts went 13-3, followed by the 11-5 Jags, 10-6 Titans, and 8-8 Texans. All but the Texans qualified for the playoffs. The Jags and Colts made the final four of the AFC.
Only the Titans have built on last season’s success. At 7-0 they are the only team with a winning record in the AFC South and have a 4 game lead over every team in the division. The others all stand at 3-4.
Injuries have really hurt the Jags and the Colts. The Jags have had major offensive line issues and have not been able to run the ball effectively. The Colts have had injuries to Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders, and several members of their offensive line. When you combine that with the fact that neither has played particularly well, you have a 3-4 season with flashes of brilliance and flashes of dreadfulness.
Houston is a strange story too. They were forced to take a Week 2 bye and were displaced by Hurricane Ike. They started off 0-4, before drawing Miami, Detroit, and Cincy at home. The result is a 3-4 rebound and their season still in tact. Until they play tougher competition we will not know if they are for real. My su####ion is that they are not.
What we do know is that 4 game leads are hard to overcome. Tennessee has gone 3-0 against the division. It seems impossible that they would win less than 12 games, unless a major injury derails their season. That leaves the rest of the AFC South in the wildcard hunt. We’ll see if anyone can emerge in the next few weeks to compete for that honor or if the AFC will be a one bid division in 2008. Seeing where we thought this division was to start the season, that would be a major surprise.
3) – Can Drew Brees break Marino’s single season passing yard record? – This has proven to be the toughest of Marino’s records to break. Brees is definitely on pace through 8 games. The NFL record is 5,084 set by Marino in his historic 1984 season. Brees currently stands at 2,563 yards. That is 474 yards better than second place Kurt Warner (has played one less game). At this pace Brees would finish the season with 5,126 passing yards.
Brees has a number of things going for him. Unlike Brady, who also started at a ridiculous pace in 2007, Brees plays his games in a dome and in a division where the games are warm. Brady had games in Baltimore, New York, and Boston last year over the last 5 weeks. Brees has 2 December games in New Orleans and one in Detroit’s dome. That leaves an 8:15 pm December 11th game at Chicago.
The other thing that Brees has going for him is that he plays on a competitive team, but not a dominant team. The Saints are 4-4 right now and stand in last place in the NFC South. The Saints will probably be fighting for a playoff spot the last week of the season, not resting starters. They also rank 28th in the NFL at running the ball. That means they will need Brees to continue throwing at his current pace if they want to have any shot of winning games and qualifying for the playoffs.
No matter how this transpires Dan Marino’s 1984 season will still be more impressive to me. Brees is on pace for 30 touchdowns. While that is a great season, Marino had 48 touchdown passes in 1984. Marino had his season playing for a 14-2 Super Bowl runner up. The Saints will be lucky to qualify for the post season. Still, Drew Brees is putting up a lot of yards and if he can stay healthy and continue to throw the ball around he should be in the hunt to send another Marino record out of the record books. Even if the Saints can’t become competitive in the NFC South, his quest for Marino’s single season passing yard record should create a lot of interest nationally.
4) - Is Carolina a major player in the NFC? – I think the Panthers are a major threat in the NFC. It starts with experience. John Fox has coached in a Super Bowl and 2 NFC Championship Games since 2003. The same goes for Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith who lead the offense. Julius Peppers was on those teams. Experience can never be discounted and the Panthers have a solid blend of experience on their roster and coaching staff.
Jonathan Stewart has been big this season. DeAngelo Williams and Stewart combine to form a great one two punch. Through 8 games they are on pace for 1,768 combined rushing yards and 16 combined rushing touchdowns.
The question marks for me at the beginning of the season were whether Delhomme was going to be able to stay healthy and whether Julius Peppers could return to his pre 2007 form. Delhomme has looked good so far this season. He has 1,781 yards passing, 9 touchdowns, 5 picks, and an 88.7 QB rating. Those will not get him to the Pro Bowl, but they will get Carolina to the playoffs. Julius Peppers is playing better too. While it would be nice to see more than 4 sacks, it is already double what he did in 2007. Furthermore, he has a sack in 4 of Carolina’s 8 games, so it isn’t like he has played one great game and 7 average games.
The thing Carolina has going for it is a strong defense. They rank 5th in points allowed, 9th in yards allowed, 9th in passing yards allowed, and 14th in rushing yards allowed. That is combined with a strong running game and competent play at the QB spot has fueled their resurgence. Steve Smith having 2 touchdowns this weekend is also encouraging. They need him playing at his 2005 form. They have a bye this week with upcoming games @ Oakland and Detroit. There is no reason to believe they won’t be 8-2 headed into the last 6 games of the season.
With the NFC North and West leaders currently standing at 4-3 that bodes well for the NFC South Champion doing no worse than a #2 seed and a first round bye. While Carolina is a long ways from clinching the NFC South they look like the best team in that division so far and the favorite to come out of the NFC South.
5) – Are the Buffalo Bills headed for a slide? – This is a team that is a little concerning right now. They started off the season 4-0, before dropping 2 of their last 3. They were blown out by Arizona, beat San Diego, and then handled by Miami. They are 3-0 at home, but just 2-2 on the road.
They are starting to fall of the pace. They rank 13th in points, 18th in yards gained, 12th in passing yards, and 22nd in rushing yards. The defense is still playing solid. They rank 11th in points allowed and yards allowed. Still, they were near the top 10 in most offensive and defensive categories heading into their Arizona loss.
The next two weeks will define the Bills season. They play the Jets and @ New England the next two weeks. If they can sweep those games they will be in excellent position in the division. It gets easier after that with games against Cleveland, @ Kansas City, and San Francisco. If they lose those games they are standing at 5-4 and headed for a tailspin.
I think the Bills are headed for a slide. I don’t think their first 4 games were that tough. They played Seattle and Oakland at home, which are two very bad road teams. Both were 1:00 pm games by West Coast teams headed east. That has been a recipe for disaster this year. Furthermore, they beat Oakland by only one point.
Then they traveled to St Louis when Linehan was coaching his last game. That gives them solid wins over struggling Jacksonville and San Diego. They beat Jacksonville by 4 points and San Diego by 9 points. It just isn’t a team with a signature performance. They are a team that plays hard on every snap, doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but is probably a year away yet from competing in the AFC. I think their 4-0 start clouded that reality.
We’ll see how they do against the Jets this weekend. The Jets have been very unimpressive their last 3 weeks and if the Bills were going to have a breakout performance this would figure to be the time. If they don’t play well and win that game going to New England is still a tough task, even without Brady. A Buffalo loss is going to make this very tight division even tougher.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred’s 2008 record: 74-41
1) New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo (5-2): This is a huge game for both teams. The Bills started off 4-0, but have lost 2 of their last 3 with their sole win being over the struggling Chargers. The Jets have actually won 3 of their last 4 games, but it sure doesn’t feel like it. They played average against the Bengals and looked lost the last two weeks, beating the lowly Chiefs 28-24 and losing to a very poor Oakland team 16-13 in OT the week before. They haven’t played very well since the Cardinals game.
Buffalo is a tough place to play this year, as the Bills are 3-0 there. One nice thing for them has been hosting Seattle, Oakland, and San Diego. This is their first opponent that won’t be traveling across the country to face them.
The Bill have done well this season in pass defense, ranking 13th in the NFL, but have only 4 picks, which ranks tied for 6th fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, the Bills rank only 22nd in rushing yards gained and the Jets rank 4th against the run. The key is going to be whether the Bills 12th ranked passing attack can exploit the Jets 23rd ranked pass defense and whether Favre can stop throwing the ball to the other team.
This is a game between two teams not playing their best football at the moment. I reluctantly like the Jets in this game. I think the Jets have been guilty of playing down to their competition the last 3 weeks. It will be interesting to see how they respond in a big spot where they aren't expected to dominate. I think a case can be made for either team, but I think Favre snaps out of his recent pick streak and does enough to help the Jets get a win. Winner: New York Jets
2) Green Bay (4-3) at Tennessee (7-0): The Tennessee defense has looked amazing this season. Even though Peyton Manning was able to get two touchdown throws (Titans had allowed one throw all season entering the game) the Titans defense got two huge stops on 4th and short and really hit the Colts in the mouth. The Titans now have a 4 game lead over every team in the division.
Green Bay needed the bye to get some players back. A week of rest should help Rodger’s shoulder heal. Not that he needs that as he has played very well in recent weeks with the shoulder injury.
It is just too hard to pick against the Titans. The Packers rank 25th in rushing yards allowed, which does not bode well against the Titans, who rank 4th in yards gained on the ground. Aaron Rodgers has been better in recent weeks at not taking sacks, but the Titans pass rush is going to be a big test for him. If he is running out of the pocket constantly that is going to play right into Tennessee’s hands. The stat that pays for this game is the Packers allow quarterbacks to have a league worst 59.5 QB rating against them. The Titans are second at 59.9. I don’t think either QB is going to have a big game and that bodes well for the Titans. They don’t need Kerry Collins to have a big game. I don’t think the Packers can win unless Rodgers plays a fantastic game. This is a pretty hard defense to do that against. Winner: Tennessee
3) Dallas (5-3) at New York Giants (6-1): This was supposed to be the first of two heavy weight games to decide the NFC East. The Redskins surprising play combined with the injury to Tony Romo has really changed that. The Cowboys have the talent to beat the Giants, but the question is who is going to get that talent the ball. The Cowboys have lost faith in Brad Johnson and have even discussed starting Brooks Bollinger. He is not going to do any better than Johnson will. He does not have the arm strength or accuracy to get the Cowboy’s receivers involved.
I like the Giants in this game. Although Dallas’s defense did rebound, they are still susceptible to Jacobs running the ball through their defense and Eli Manning making plays down field. The only way Dallas wins this game is if Eli gets very generous with the ball, something I don’t see happening. The good news for the Cowboys is they get their bye next week and should be getting Romo back the week after. 5-4 and 2 and one half games back in the division is not the end of the world. Romo should be coming back and might be able to steady the ship. Winner: NY Giants
4) New England Patriots (5-2) at Indianapolis (3-4): When it was announced Tom Brady went down with a knee injury and you were watching the pre game for the Colts and Bears, who would have thought the Patriots would come in with the better record, much less a two game edge. While the Patriots are holding things together without Brady the Colts are relying on Manning’s arm too much. They aren’t playing good defense and are not giving him any support in the run game.
That said I still like Indy in this game. Cassel gets sacked way too much and while Indy is near the bottom of the league in sacks, he can’t do what he has been doing against the Colts and not expect them to get to him. With the Patriots running back woes, I don’t see them able to take advantage of a weak Indy run defense. This will be a close hard fought game, but I look for Peyton Manning to play big in this game and for the Colts to take a tough game at home. Winner: Indianapolis
5) Pittsburgh (5-2) at Washington (6-2): Another physical game for the Steelers. Last week they did a very good job of keeping Jacobs in check. This week they face the best runner in the NFL in 2008, Clinton Portis.
The Steelers meanwhile are very injured right now and they need to do a better job of keeping Big Ben upright. He isn’t going to make it the season if this keeps up. The Redskins key has been playing solid defense and controlling the tempo with their running game. Pittsburgh is a very tough foe to beat using that style of football. I could make a case for either team as to why I think they will win the game. When that is the case, I usually go with the home team. Redskins in another close game. Winner: Washington
and the rest…
6) Detroit (0-7) at Chicago (4-3): Chicago dominated the Lions in Detroit 34-7 back in Week 5. Little has changed to make me think this will go any differently. Winner: Chicago
7) Jacksonville (3-4) at Cincinnati (0-8): Jacksonville has been very disappointing, but I think their struggling running game gets going this week against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Winner: Jacksonville
8) Baltimore (4-3) at Cleveland (3-4): Cleveland looked as bad as any team could going 1-3 to start the season, with their sole win being over winless Cincinnati. Since the bye they are 2-1 and have beaten the NY Giants and the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is a must win for Cleveland. They need to even up with Baltimore and get back to .500 if they want to think about the playoffs. A loss here drops them to 3-5, two games behind Baltimore (actually three because Baltimore would have the tiebreaker with a sweep). Baltimore won the first meeting 28-10. I think this will be a lot closer, but I still like Baltimore. Last year Cleveland beat Baltimore 27-13 and 33-30. That’s a lot more offense that what Cleveland is generating this year. I can’t see Cleveland scoring a lot of points against Baltimore the way both units are playing this year. A low scoring game favors the Ravens. Winner: Baltimore
9) Tampa Bay (5-3) at Kansas City (1-6): I look for another blowout. Unlike the Jets the Bucs will commit to the run and they should be successful. Winner: Tampa Bay
10) Houston Texans (3-4) at Minnesota (3-4): This is a tough one. The Vikings have been up and down all season. The Texans started the season 0-4, before winning their last 3 games. Problem is those games were all at home against Miami, Detroit, and Cincinnati. I look for Adrian Peterson to have a big game this week in the dome coming off a week’s rest and I look for the Titans to come back to earth after playing three straight home games. Winner: Minnesota
11) Arizona (4-3) at St Louis (2-5): Jackson’s status is still up in the air, so it’s hard to go with St Louis not knowing his status. This is a game the Cardinals have to win if they want to become NFC West champions. The Rams still have defensive issues and I think Warner has a big game against his former team. Unlike Cassel and Johnson (the Ram’s last two opposing QBs), Warner is able to get the ball down field to his receivers on a consistent basis. Winner: Arizona
12) Miami (3-4) at Denver (4-3): Denver has had a week off, which should help Shanahan and his team recover from a very tough loss to the Patriots. Denver is much better at home and while Ronnie Brown has the potential to have a big game against w weak run defense, Cutler should also fare well against a Miami defense that ranks 25th against the pass. I’ll take the home team. Winner: Denver
13) Atlanta (4-3) at Oakland (2-5): It hasn’t been good for teams going across the country, but I look for the Falcons to change that. The Raiders are very susceptible to the run and nothing would make the Falcons happier than to give the ball to Turner 30 times and let him do his thing. Winner: Atlanta
14) Philadelphia (4-3) at Seattle (2-5): Seattle is always a tough place to play and the Eagles have struggled to win on the road this year. I expect the Seahawks to continue to play hard, but the Eagles are much better than San Fran. Expect Westbrook to have another big day and the Eagles to keep pace in the brutal NFC East. Winner: Philadelphia
Byes: 49ers, Chargers, Panthers, Saints
That’s all for this week. On Thursday I plan to release a mid season report card with half way point MVPs and other analysis. I look forward to reading your comments.
It’s back. This
is my second preseason letter. I
didn’t do one the opening week with just the Hall of Fame Game on the
slate. Again, while I appreciate
feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't
list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player
in one newsletter would be impossibility.
I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason
action.
Standings
AFC
East NFC
East
1. Buffalo (1-1) 1.Washington
(3-0)
2. Miami (1-1) 2.
NY Giants (1-1)
3. New York Jets (1-1) 3.
Philadelphia (1-1)
4. New England (0-2) 4.
Dallas (0-2)
AFC
South NFC
South
1. Houston (2-0) 1.
Tampa Bay (2-0)
2. Tennessee (2-0) 2.
Carolina (1-1)
3. Jacksonville (1-1) 3.
New Orleans (1-1)
4. Indianapolis (1-2) 4.
Atlanta (0-2)
AFC
North NFC
North
1.Baltimore (1-1) 1.Detroit
(2-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-1) 2.Minnesota
(1-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-1) 3.Chicago
(0-2)
4.Cleveland (0-2) 4.Green
Bay (0-2)
AFC
West NFC
West
1.Denver (1-1) 1.
Seattle (2-0)
2. Kansas City (1-1) 2.
Arizona (1-1)
3. Oakland (1-1) 3.
San Fran (1-1)
4. San Diego (1-1) 4.
St Louis (1-1)
MVP of the Week:
Matt Schaub had a terrific performance this week. He went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2
touchdown tosses while throwing 0 interceptions. He posted a 154.9 QB rating. Michael Turner was very productive for the Falcons. While he carried the ball only 4 times
he had 113 yards, including a 63-yard dash. Finally, Brandon Coutu had a very
nice game going 5 for 5 on field goals and 2-2 on extra points. Included in those field goals was a
48-yard and 46-yard kick. But
Domenik Hixon had the best performance of all. He had 2 receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown in the
first quarter as the NY Giants built a 23-3 first quarter lead. That effort propelled them to a 37-34
victory.
Loser of the Week:
I would go with the New England defense, the Cleveland Browns, and the
Green Bay Packers. The Patriots
rebuilt their secondary and linebackers this off-season. It looked woefully inadequate Sunday
Night. Brain Griese went 8-8 on
the first drive on a 17-play drive that consumed 9:38 seconds. The Patriots trailed 17-3 at the half
and 27-3 after three quarters, before losing 27-10. Granted Tom Brady didn’t play which limited the offense, but
I was not impressed with the Patriots defense against what I consider a pretty
average offense. It is probably
nothing to worry about at this stage, but that needs to get fixed up.
Then there were the Browns. This is a classic example of how preseason scores can be
misleading. If you looked at the
final you see a 37-34 game. It
looks like both teams getting in good work in a high scoring game. Hidden in that score is that the NY
Giants first team destroyed the Browns first team to the tune of a 30-3 lead in
the early part of the second quarter.
That was an embarrassing game by the first string and is something they
will need to address next week when they take on the Detroit Lions.
Green Bay I will discuss later in my Impressions of the
Week.
Game of the Week: I’m going to go with another preseason
overtime game. The Seahawks and
Bears played to a 26-26 tie, before the Hawks broke the tie with a field goal
in overtime. The Seahawks were
down 10 points entering the 4th quarter before they ran off 17
points. Kellen Davis tied the game
with 2:50 left in the 4th quarter. Brandon Coutu nailed a 36-yard field goal early in the
overtime to give the Hawks the win.
Honorable mention to the Cleveland Browns and NY Giants.
The Bay of Pigs:
Has to be that 7-6 gem the Chargers and the Rams put up in St
Louis. The Chargers kicked a pair
of first quarter field goals and the Rams scored the lone touchdown in the
third quarter.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Still waiting for the regular season on
this.
Hospital Visit:
Chad Johnson suffered a sprained shoulder. He has already been ruled out for next week’s game and
Marvin Lewis said he could be questionable for the season opener.
Tavaris Jackson hurt his knee in the Viking’s win. The Vikings quarterback strained his
MCL. He is expected to miss next
week, but should be okay for the season opener.
Tom Brady didn’t even travel to Tampa Bay, because of an
undisclosed injury. It is believed
that he has a sore foot. It is on
the same foot that bothered him in the Super Bowl, but a different injury. It is uncertain whether he will play in
the rest of the preseason.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) The New York Bretts – Brett Favre had about as good of a
debut as one could hope for. He
went 5 for 6 for for 48 yards and 1 touchdown pass in 2 drives. It was arguably his best
preseason game since 2000 as he posted a 139.6 QB rating.
No, he does not yet have complete command of the
offense. The Jets had about 40
plays for him to use in that game.
Two drives aren’t enough to tell if he is ready to run the offense for
60 minutes. He needs to show he
understands the offense enough to run a 2-minute no huddle offense and that his
stamina is good enough to play well deep into the 4th quarter. I expect those things to come, but you
can’t learn about that in 6 pass attempts and 2 series.
However, there were two things that were clear, 1) The team
and the New York Jets fan base have been electrified by this signing. There was a very nice buzz in the air
surrounding the game. 2) Favre
still looks extremely sharp. He
had a 19-yard pass to Cotchery that was a beautiful touch pass down the
field. He also looked of the
safety perfectly on the Keller touchdown.
About his only bad play was a sack he took on the first drive, which is
still better than throwing a pick in that spot.
It’s going to take several games for Favre to get on the
same page with his teammates.
There are going to be times where it looks great and times where it
doesn’t. His first game keeps the
optimism at a very high level and gives the Jets something to build on. Excellent first start for Favre.
2) The Rams need Steven Jackson – The Rams need to get
Steven Jackson’s contract figured out fast. In 2 preseason games the Rams have looked horrific on
offense. They scored just 7 points
in their 7-6 win against San Diego.
They lost 34-13 in their opener to Tennessee.
Couple things in the Rams defense. Jackson would not have played 4 quarters in those
games. While they only had 76
yards against the Titans on the ground they did record 183 rushing yards
against the Chargers. This isn’t
so much an opinion I have because the offense has struggled in preseason. I feel they need him, because of what
he has meant to their offense the last 2 regular seasons.
Jackson got hurt in Week 3 last season. He came back in Week 8. The result was a 0-4 record in which
the Rams scored 7 points against the Cowboys, 3 points against the Ravens, and
6 points against the Seahawks. The
only game the offense looked good in was the 34-31 loss to Arizona.
Steven Jackson is a beast. In 2006 he recorded 2,334 yards from scrimmage, which ranks
5th in NFL history. It
was only 95 yards shy of Marshall Faulk’s 1999 NFL record. He also scored 16 touchdowns that
season. Last year despite missing
those 4 starts he still recorded 1,002 yards rushing and scored 5
touchdowns. He scored a touchdown
in 6 of the 9 games after he came back from injury.
This holdout is looking a lot like Larry Johnson last
season. It looks like it could
drag into the eve of the regular season.
It will take him a couple games to warm up. Holdouts of this nature can be a precursor to injuries.
The Rams can’t afford that. On paper they don’t appear particularly strong even with
Jackson in the lineup. While Holt
and Bulger can move the ball through the air they won’t be nearly as effective
if defenses don’t have Steven Jackson to contend with. This offense needs a healthy Steven
Jackson this season. The Rams need
to get him into camp ASAP to put him in the best possible position to do that.
3) Pack took a big step back – Lost in the Aaron Rodgers vs.
Brett Favre story is that both players play with 50 other players. The story out of this game has been
that Aaron Rodgers took a step back.
Aaron Rodgers is not the only story on this team. In terms of preseason losses this is
about as bad as it gets and Rodgers was not the only concern.
The Brown’s first team at least got thumped by the defending
champions. The Patriots lost to a
playoff team without Brady.
Granted the Packers didn’t have some key players, mainly Grant and
Jennings, but San Fran is a bad football team.
The first problem is the offense did nothing to move the
ball. The Packers gained 46 yards
of total offense in the first half.
Their two scoring drives for field goals featured a 4-play drive for -6
yards. The other drive was 4 plays
for 2 yards. Rodgers was sacked 4
times. He had several passes that
were dropped, including a sure touchdown grab by Donald Lee. The Packers managed only 101 yards
rushing against a team that gave up 248 yards rushing to Oakland just a week
ago. They also lost 3
fumbles.
Then there was the defense. The Packers allowed the 49er offense to go 15 plays for 87
yards and take off 9:15 of game clock in the second quarter. They allowed O’Sullivan to go 8 for 17
for 154 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The touchdown pass to Morgan was for 59 yards.
I’m not one to hit the panic button because of a bad
preseason game. Al Harris and
Charles Woodson weren’t playing on that 87-yard drive. Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings weren’t on
the field. Those are big factors.
Again, what I didn’t like is that I don’t think San Fran is
a very good football team. They
ranked 32 in scoring, 32 in offensive yards, and 32nd in first downs
in 2007. They scored 6 points
against the Raiders last week.
Their defense ranked 20th in points allowed and 25th
in yards allowed last year. This
is a defense that should be scored on.
It is not a team that should have beat the Packers 34-6.
The Packers have a big test in front of them. Not only Rodgers, but the entire team
is going to receive more scrutiny because of the Favre situation than possibly
any team in the history of the NFL.
They played okay in a 20-17 loss to Cincy. Then they took a terrible step back to a mediocre football
team. They need to play a good
game and establish a rhythm against Denver. They need to get Jennings and Grant on the field to get reps
with Rodgers.
Denver is historically as tough of a venue as any in the NFL. It will be good to see how they handle
that atmosphere. It’s difficult to
know what to take out of Saturday’s game, but hopefully for the Packers it was
just a case of a flat preseason performance.
4) Houston Texans impressing in preseason – Houston and
Detroit are probably the most impressive non-postseason team in this
preseason. Seeing Matt Millen
isn’t running the Texans they get the advantage. They played very well at the Super Dome on Saturday. Schaub went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and
2 touchdowns with 0 picks. Rookie
Steve Slaton played well with 13 carries for 57 yards and a rushing
touchdown. The Texans won 31-27. The game before that they beat Denver
19-16. Schaub was 4 for 5 for 29
yards.
The Texans had a good season last year. Despite losing Schaub for 5 starts,
Andre Johnson for 7 starts, and Ahman Green for 11 starts they managed to go
7-3 outside of the division and 8-8 overall. They won 3 of their last 4 games. It was their 1-5 record in the division that killed them and
that lone win came against a resting Jaguars team on the final day of the
season.
The Colts still should be strong and the Jaguars look to be
improved from a year ago. The
Titans are always going to play people tough. I would pick the Texans to make the playoffs out of the AFC
North, West, and possibly the East.
The South is going to make for tough wins in the division again in
2008. If the Texans are going to
win Schaub and Johnson must stay healthy and if Green doesn’t stay healthy
Steve Slaton or Chris Brown must emerge. Green strained his groin on the first carry of the
Bronco game and did not play against the Saints. That is not a good sign for a guy that has missed 19 games
since 2005.
This is a young team that needs to continue to improve and they
look to be doing just that. While
it will be tough to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC South the Texans
are a team that I believe has a chance to compete for a final wild card spot
with Buffalo, Denver, NY Jets, if they stay healthy this year. So far they are doing the right
things in preseason.
5) Chicago Bears are really struggling – I’m not sure what
to expect out of the Bears in terms of wins and losses, but one thing that I
expect is that this will be arguably the worst offense in the NFL this season.
The first problem is a bad quarterback and worse
quarterback. The Bears are trying
to flip a coin to decide which puts the team in the best position to not
completely stink up the field.
Grossman has a 66.9 QB rating in two preseason games. He played fairly well against Kansas
City and stunk against Seattle.
Orton has a 76.4 rating and has yet to throw a touchdown pass or
interception. Neither has
established himself as the front-runner. Yet the Bears named Orton the starting quarterback for
the season opener. Hopefully he
has shown more in practice than he did in the games.
The offensive line was supposed to be in rebuilding mode
behind the drafting of Chris Williams.
Fred Miller and Rueben Brown were both let go to help this line get
younger. Williams was an injury
concern entering the draft, because of neck and back issues. Chris Williams now has a herniated disc
and could miss most of or all of the NFL season. Even if he does comeback he will be way behind the curve and
his rookie season is going to be a lost season at best.
Then there are the skill positions. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Rashied
Davis, Devon Hester, and Mark Bradley are expected to be the Bears receivers
this season. Matt Forte and Adrian
Peterson will get the majority of the carries. That isn’t exactly a list of skill position players that
keep defensive coordinators up late at night. Hester is a terror on special teams, but the jury is still
out when it comes to wide receiver.
2nd year tight end Greg Olson is probably their most scary
skill position player.
What that translates into is 3 points scored in the first
half against the Chiefs in which the offense went 8 plays for 19 yards and 5
points against the Seahawks.
Seeing the offense doesn’t score a safety that is 3 more first half
points for the offense. That drive
went 10 plays for 51 yards.
There are some teams where a problem can be identified at
one position. With the Jags last
year it was wide receiver. The
Cowboys had secondary issues last season.
With the Bears the entire offense is a mess. The skill position players can’t do anything because the
offensive line can’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running
game. The quarterback can’t do
anything, because the line doesn’t give him time, the receivers aren’t very
solid, and the running game doesn’t set him up with manageable plays. Even if the line could block better it
isn’t going to look good with the players it is protecting. It’s a vicious cycle.
In 2005 and 2006 the only problem on this team was
quarterback. In 2005 the Bears
were able to go 11-5 with an offense that ranked 26th in points
scored and 29th in yards gained. That defense finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd
in yards allowed. I think the Bears
don’t have as good of a defensive unit as they did in 2005 and they have
additional problems on the line and at running back.
I’m very interested to see how this offense does in 2008 and
what that translates to in terms of their record. Even though that division is in a state of flux with Detroit
looking to get over the hump, Green Bay replacing a legend, and Minnesota
emerging it is going to be tough for the Bears to compete in that division with
their offensive woes.
A Look Ahead:
While it may have lost some significance in recent years, the third week
of the preseason is always the most important game of the preseason. It’s when we usually see the
starters play for an entire half.
The 2007 playoff teams were 9-3 in the 3rd week of the preseason
last year. The Cowboys lost to the
Texans, the Giants lost to the Jets, and the Packers lost to the Jaguars. Both the Jags and Packers made
the playoffs. Staying healthy is
always the first goal of preseason.
In the case of Tom Brady the Patriots aren’t going to try to win the 3rd
preseason game at the expense of their franchise. Still with starters expected to go into the 3rd
quarter I’m going to look at 5 key games, not so much in terms of who will win
the game, but the matchups I’m looking for in these games.
1) Philadelphia Eagles at New England: These are the two teams I predicted to
lose in the Conference Championship.
I don’t really care what New England’s offense looks like unless Tom
Brady is going to miss time to start the season. With the KGB type culture up in Foxboro who knows how bad
that foot is right now. My guess
is Brady will be ready to play in the opener. Tampa Bay abused New England’s defense on the opening
drive. I want to see New England’s
rebuilt defense play with some pride.
I want to see how they handle a speedy back like Westbrook. I don’t think Brady is going to play
and that should allow the Eagles to win this game. Winner:Philadelphia
2) Jacksonville at Tampa Bay – This is a matchup between two
playoff teams from a year ago. The
Bucs were very impressive in their opening drive against the Patriots opening
the game with a drive that lasted over 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown. I want to see how Garcia looks in his
first action of the preseason. I
want to see how the Bucs run defense stops one of the best ground attacks in
the NFL. For Jacksonville, I want
to see how they put pressure on Garcia, a quarterback that doesn’t make many
mistakes but did have 3 of his 4 interceptions in 2007 against Jacksonville. I like how Tampa Bay is playing in the
preseason and the Jags still won’t have their receivers. I look for the Bucs in a close one. Winner:Tampa Bay
3) New York Giants at New York Jets: The Giants defensive line looked very
good against Cleveland. They
knocked Derek Anderson out of the game.
Here is what I’m looking for in this contest. How does the rebuilt line of the NY Jets handle one of the
premier defensive lines in the NFL?
How does Brett Favre look against the defense that kept his Packers out
of the Super Bowl in 2007? Can the
Jets run the ball against the Giants to give #4 a chance with play action
passing and relieve the pass rush?
Will Brett be forced into sacks and interceptions trying to dissect this
defense on his own? I don’t expect
a lot in Brett’s second preseason game.
I look for him to play above average, but in order to beat the NY Giants
first team he will have to be exceptional. I look for the Giants to win the game. Winner: NY Giants
4) Pittsburgh at Minnesota: This one is very simple too. I want to see how the Steelers ground game does against one
of the best defensive lines in the NFL.
I want to see how Jared Allen does against a team that allowed a ton of
sacks in 2007. Finally, I want to
see how Ward, Holmes, and Miller do against a secondary that gave up the most
passing yards in the NFL a year ago.
On the Vikings offense I want to see how Peterson and Taylor do against
a tough defense. I want to see how
the Vikings offense looks without Jackson who is questionable for the
opener. I like the Steelers to win
this game, but by a fairly low score.
Winner: Pittsburgh
5) Seattle at San Diego: I don’t expect Tomlinson to play too much, but I want to see
how Phillip Rivers and the passing game handle the Seattle pass rush. I want to see how the Seattle offense
runs against a Chargers team that was inconsistent against the run last
season. I want to see how the Seahawks
thin receiver core does in terms of getting open for Hasselbeck. How many coverage sacks is he going to
take? It’s tough to say who will
win this game, because of Tomlinson’s traditionally light workouts, but I think
San Diego will win this contest behind their vicious defense. Winner: San Diego
That’s all for this week. Next weeks newsletter will be full of recaps from Week 3 of
the preseason and will be light on the prediction side as teams rest most of
their key players the final week of preseason. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is my third of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC South was among the most competitive divisions in the NFL. The Colts finished with the 2nd best record in the AFC at 13-3. The Jaguars were one of the hottest teams in the NFL to close the season and won an epic playoff game in Pittsburgh. The Titans made the playoffs as the AFC’s 6th seed. Finally, the Texans had their first .500 season in the history of their franchise. With so many talented teams the AFC South figures to be a slugfest again in 2008.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC South.
1) Jacksonville Jaguars 07 Record: 11-5 Points Scored: 411 (6th) Points Allowed: 304 (10th) Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 143-113 (.559) (3rd in NFL)
Strengths: The 2007 Jaguars looked to be in disarray before Week 1 even began. The first team offense was not performing in the preseason and Jack Del Rio decided that the Jaguars needed to go in a different direction at quarterback. He released Byron Leftwich and turned the quarterback reigns over to David Garrard. Garrard responded by posting the third highest QB rating in the NFL with a 102.2. He threw an amazing 18 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions.
While the Jaguars started slowly with a 5-3 record, they won 6 of their last 8 games and became the first team to win 2 games in Pittsburgh in the same season, including their epic 31-29 victory in the NFL Wildcard Round. The Jaguars played the Patriots tough in New England, but ultimately fell to the Patriots 31-20.
While Garrard played at a very high level, the strength of the Jaguars offense was clearly the running game. Fred Taylor earned his first Pro Bowl appearance, as he was selected as the alternate. He rushed for 1,202 yards. Maurice Jones-Drew also had a solid campaign, rushing for 768 yards and racking up 407 receiving yards. He had 9 rushing touchdowns. That combo gave the Jags the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFL, second only to the Minnesota Vikings.
The Jags also did very well on defense. They finished 11th in rushing yards allowed, 15th in passing yards allowed, and 10th in points allowed. The Jags allowed less than 20 points in 10 of their 16 contests. They also ranked 4th in the NFL with 20 interceptions and 9th in the NFL with sacks at 36.
However, they weren’t able to generate that same production against the more explosive offenses in the NFL. The Patriots, Colts, Steelers, and Saints were able to torch the Jaguars. They averaged 30 points per game in 6 contests. If the Jaguars are going to make the jump to the elite level of the NFL they will have to force more turnovers and sacks on defense against the elite NFL offenses.
Weaknesses: The Jaguars had two main weaknesses in 2007. First, their receiver production was unacceptable. Earnest Wilford led the receivers and tight ends in receptions with 45. Dennis Northcutt led the receivers and tight ends with 629 yards. That production is not acceptable from a NFL receiving core.
David Garrard should be better just from having completed his first season as the Jaguars number one guy. The Jaguars also made a number of improvements in the receiving core. They allowed Wilford to go to Miami. They replaced him with Jerry Porter who looks for a fresh start coming from Oakland. They also acquired Troy Williamson from the Minnesota Vikings.
Neither have been productive in recent years do the quarterback situations they had with their respective clubs. Jerry Porter has proven he can put up numbers if given a solid quarterback. Williamson has proven nothing, other than that he can drop balls while in the open. If either of those guys can emerge as a go to target and Reggie Williams can duplicate his 10 touchdown catches from 2007, and Mercedes Lewis can continue to improve; the Jags should be able to generate more offense in their passing game.
Regardless the Jaguars had big guys at receiver that didn’t possess breakaway speed. Adding Porter and Williamson was huge in the fact that it gives them a more speed and a more diverse receiving core.
The other area the Jags needed to improve was putting pressure on the quarterback. The Jags had 36 sacks, which ranked 9th. That is a little misleading. Their leading sacker on defense, Paul ####er recorded 8 sacks. Also consider that the Jags recorded 16 less sacks than the league leading New York Giants, but recorded only 5 more sacks than 19th ranked New Orleans. There was not a lot of separation from 10 through 20 in terms of quarterback sacks.
Furthermore, The Jags must improve in that area if they want to compete against the elite offenses in the NFL. If an elite quarterback is allowed unlimited time, he will destroy the best coverage units in the NFL. In 2007 the Jags just didn’t have that one player on their defense that offensive coordinators spend time game planning against to keep away from their quarterback.
They made that their number one priority in the NFL draft. They moved up to the 8th pick in the draft and selected Derrick Harvey. They also selected Quentin Groves out of Auburn. He is a player that can play both defensive end and linebacker. Both players should help the defensive front put pressure on Peyton Manning and the other elite quarterbacks on their schedule. The Jaguars will need those players to contribute immediately to make up for the losses of Marcus Stroud, Grady Jackson, and Bobby McCray. Also, don’t be surprised if the Jaguars don’t continue to pursue Jason Taylor via a trade. There is clearly a riff between Taylor and the Dolphins front office and while a trade will not be as easy to make as prior to the draft, I would not rule that move out. He would be a huge addition to the Jags defensive line.
Prediction: I think this is finally the year the Jaguars put everything together. Fred Taylor is 32, but has not been worn out in recent years with the emergence of Jones-Drew. He should still have another couple good years left in him. The two form one of the premier running back duos in the NFL.
I expect David Garrard to be more effective in his second year as the full time starter. It will also help him to have Jerry Porter. Porter has a lot of talent and needed a change of scenery. While he alone doesn’t make this one of the top-receiving units in the NFL, he doesn’t have to. It just needs to have the respect of the NFL defenses. They have more speed this year and should be able to stretch defenses and gain more yards through the air.
The fact is that the Jaguars had a good offense last year. They averaged 30.4 points per game in their last 10 games of the season and averaged 25.5 points per game in their 2-playoff games. This team has come a long way since 2005 when they averaged 22.6 points per game and were held to 3 points in their Wildcard Round loss to New England. Garrard gave them another dimension in the passing game and should benefit from having started a full season. This is his first offseason knowing that he has the job.
They key for me was what the Jaguars did in the postseason and what they did in the draft. This is a team that needed to do well in the postseason to prove to themselves they could play with the top powers in the AFC. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and played the Patriots tough in New England. The one thing they came away with was that they needed to put more pressure on the QB. That was addressed this offseason, even though they didn’t acquire Jason Taylor.
I didn’t like the fact that they gave up 7 picks to get their two top picks. In the long run that could come back to haunt them and could be key for the Baltimore rebuilding effort. What I did like is they added two players that can put pressure on the quarterback and will have a solid system and players to help them do that. These guys don’t need to save the defense. They need to use their strengths to put them over the top.
The Jaguars do have a tough schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage, but some of that is deceiving. I think they made a lot more improvements than Tennessee and Houston. They don’t have to play the Patriots or the Chargers, two teams the Colts face. They draw Denver and Buffalo instead. The NFC North is a division with some question marks. Brett Favre retiring means the Packers are probably not a 13-3 team in 2008 and while the Vikings appear to be on the rise, the Lions and Bears have a lot of questions. While Pittsburgh and Cleveland will offer challenging games, Baltimore and Cincinnati should not be very difficult.
What this means is that I think Jacksonville is in position to unseat the Indianapolis Colts as division champs. Furthermore, I look for them and New England to have the best records in the AFC, with the Jags winning the Conference’s Number 1 seed.
Jacksonville Jaguar’s Record: 13-3 – AFC South Divisional Champion; AFC #1 Seed
2) Indianapolis Colts 07 Record: 13-3 Points Scored: 450 (3rd) Points Allowed: 262 (1st) Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 152-104 (.594) (2nd in NFL)
Strengths: The Colts have been a powerhouse on offense since 1999. Other than 2002, the Colts have ranked no worse than 4th in points scored and no worse than 5th in yards gained. The leader of the offense since 1998 has been Peyton Manning. He has posted a 4,000 yard passing season 8 of his first 10 seasons in the league and has posted consecutive 31 touchdown pass seasons in 2006 and 2007. Last season was his first season where he failed to break the 100.0 rating since 2003. He still had a solid 98.0. His first 10 years in the league have been as productive as any quarterback in the history of the NFL.
The Colts have always had great wide receivers. Last year Marvin Harrison was injured for most of the season. Reggie Wayne stepped to the forefront as the team’s number one wide receiver. He posted 104 catches for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns. Dallas Clark also had a stellar year with 58 catches for 616 yards and 11 touchdowns. Joseph Addai added balance to the running game with 1072 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns to go with his 41 receptions for 364 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. Anthony Gonzalez showed promise as a rookie. The Colts may need a bigger contribution if Marvin Harrison’s legal problems spill into the regular season. While that situation is bizarre at this point it does not appear to be a major issue given Marvin’s strong track record in regards to personal conduct and the information from the investigation that has been made public. I am much more concerned that Marvin Harrison is turning 36 years old and coming off an injury plagued season. He must show that the injuries that plagued him in 2007 are behind him.
The Colts have excellent depth at running back. Kenton Keith had a solid year filling in for Addai and Dominick Rhodes is back with the Colts after playing for the Raiders last season. He is familiar with the offense and should provide good depth behind Addai. Unlike their 2006 Super Bowl season when the Colts ranked 23rd in points allowed, 21st in yards allowed, and 32nd in rushing yards allowed; the 2007 Colts were one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The 2007 Colts ranked 1st in points allowed, 3rd in yards allowed, and 15th in rushing yards allowed. Bob Sanders was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The Colts were ranked 2nd in interceptions with 22.
Weaknesses: The Colts are a veteran roster that has won 12 games or more every year since 2003. That is an amazing accomplishment. Still, they do have some question marks headed into the 2008 campaign.
The Colts were not able to put a lot of pressure on the quarterback last season. Their twenty eight quarterback sacks ranked 26th in the NFL. Part of that was due to the season ending injury suffered by Dwight Freeney in the Patriots game. If he is able to comeback healthy the Colts should be able to improve in that department. Still, the Colts are a small defensive unit that is built for speed over strength. They have to rank in the top part of the league in sacks if they are going to justify being that small. If they are giving up a lot of rushing yards and failing to register sacks that is not a good combination.
Losing Jake Scott was also a big loss. He has started 16 games at guard every year since 2005. Not only did they lose him, but also they lost him to a division rival in Tennessee. The Colts did a good job at replacing the retired left tackle Tarik Glenn with Tony Ugoh last season. They will need to do the same thing this season.
The other area the Colts need to worry about is depth at the receiver and tight end positions. Ben Utecht was lost to the Cincinnati Bengals. Bryan Fletcher will have to assume a bigger role in 2008. Other than Harrison and Wayne the Colts lack proven talent at wide receiver. Gonzalez and Moorhead will have to step up their contributions in 2008, especially if Harrison is not at full strength.
The Colts did not have a first round pick, so they were not able to upgrade any of those areas in the draft with a top prospect. They will need to do what they have been so good at since 2003. They need to improve from within and hope that they hit some homeruns in the later rounds of this year’s draft.
Prediction: I think the Colts window is slowly starting to close. Drafting so late since 2003 will do that to any team. They are in good shape at running back and while Peyton Manning is 32 years old, he is showing no signs of slowing down. Marvin Harrison is starting to get up there in age, Tony Dungy appears to be nearing the end of his coaching career with the Colts, and it is uncertain that the Colts have the talent in place on defense to maintain their stellar showing last season.
The other difficult thing for the Colts is the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL. It is brutal. They play the Patriots, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars twice. Those are five of the toughest games you could ask for. They also face Green Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Tennessee twice. Those teams aren’t nearly as good as the first list, but still very formidable opponents.
I think the Jaguars are closing the gap and the main difference between the clubs was Peyton Manning. While the Jaguars are never going to be better than the Colts in that regard, I think they have closed the gap and are poised to overtake the Colts in a very competitive division. That said, the Colts are extremely talented on offense and have a good enough defense to win a lot of games. I think the Colts still get to 12 wins this season and secure the top wild card position.
Indianapolis Colt’s Record: 12-4 – AFC South 2nd Place; AFC #5 Seed
3) Tennessee Titans 07 Record: 10-6 Points Scored: 301 (22nd) Points Allowed: 297 (8th) Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.520) (9th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Tennessee Titans were a surprise team in 2007. Despite adding little at the skill positions and having an offense that struggled to score points, Vince Young was able to manage the offense in only his second year. Behind a defense that was very stingy against the run, the Titans won 10 games and sneaked into the playoffs on the last day. That good fortune was partly the result of the Bengals upsetting the Browns in Week 16 and partly the result of the Colts resting all their players on the final game of the season Regardless, the Titans progressed very well in year 2 of the Vince Young era and played San Diego tough in the wild card round. They belonged on that stage.
The Titans allowed only 92.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked 5th in the NFL. A major reason for that was Albert Haynesworth. He is currently the team’s franchise player and has yet to work out a long-term deal with the club. A training camp holdout may be in the future. This is big for the Titans, because this was not the same team without him. They gave up over 30 points a game in Weeks 10-13, including 35 points to the Cincinnati Bengals. All three games were losses and almost kept the Titans out of the playoffs.
The Titans also ranked 10th in passing yards allowed at just 199.2 passing yards allowed per game. They were excellent at putting pressure on the quarterback with 40 sacks, which ranked 7th in the NFL. If Javon Kearse can stay healthy he should help them increase that number in 2008. Their 22 interceptions tied the Colts for 2nd in the NFL.
On offense the Titans had an excellent rushing attack. The Titans ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, led by LenDale White’s 1,110 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns. Jake Scott was an excellent signing at guard and could help them open up even bigger holes in their running attack. It will be interesting to see how speedster Chris Johnson will fit into the Titans rotation. They also have speedster Chris Henry, who saw limited time in 2007.
Weaknesses: The one are the Titans struggled with was the passing game. That was the main reason the Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in scoring. Vince Young had a very poor season in that regard. Vince Young ranked 26th in QB rating with a 71.1. His 9 touchdown passes ranked tied for 24th. His 17 interceptions were tied for 7th, despite the fact that he only threw 382 passes. Jon Kitna led the league with 20 intercpetions, but threw the ball 561 times. Young threw an interception once every 22.5 pass attempts. While he is a great leader and has all the intangible things needed from a star NFL quarterback, he has to improve his passing numbers if the Titans are going to advance deeper in the playoffs.
Part of that problem was the targets that Vince Young had in 2007. Roydell Williams and Justin Gage were their leading receivers. They both had 55 catches. Gage got the better in receiving yards with 750 to 719, while Williams had 4 touchdown catches to Gage’s 2 touchdown catches. There are quite a few teams that got better production out of their #3 receiver. If Vince Young is going to take the next step, the Titans have to get some playmakers around him.
The problem is they didn’t add any playmakers. I thought the Titans did very well in free agency, but failed to upgrade their receiving core in the draft. If the Titans fail to improve on their 2007 season, I think they will look back to their failure to add playmakers in the draft. The best receiver they added was Lavelle Hawkins, who the Titans selected in the 4th round out of California. The transition from college to the NFL is very tough for a receiver and it is doubtful he will make a huge impact in his first season.
Prediction: The Titans have a very difficult road in 2008. The Jaguars made a lot of improvements in the draft and free agency and the Colts have a very high-powered offense. The Titans went 2-2 against the top of the division in 2007. One of those wins was on the final day when the Colts backups hung in against the Titan starters until the final minutes. It is difficult to see that they have caught up with Indy and Jacsonville given the events of the offseason. They also play Pittsburgh and Cleveland, which could be tough as well.
I messed up on this team last year, because I didn’t respect their defense and running game enough. I picked them to finish under .500 and last in the division. The Titans are among the best in the league in those areas and that should be enough to win a lot of games. They were able to win without a potent passing game in 2007, and I am not going to let that fool me in 2008.
That said, I don’t see how they did enough to pass Jacksonville and Indianapolis and as the 6th seed. They finished tied with Cleveland in 2007, so it isn’t like they had much room to spare. Cleveland has made a lot of improvements in the offseason. I think the Titans finish 9-7 in 2008 and fight it out with Cleveland for that last playoff spot. This season I think the Browns get the better end of that deal.
Tennessee Titan’s Record: 9-7 – AFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs
Strengths: Imagine how the Colts would have done in 2007 had Joseph Addai missed 11 starts, Marvin Harrison had missed 7 starts, and Peyton Manning had missed 5 starts? That is what happened to the Texans with Schaub, Green, and Johnson.
Now, I’m not saying that the Texans trio is on par with what the Colts have in Indy. What I am saying is that the Texans did very well to score 379 points and finish 12th in the NFL in scoring despite having their starting quarterback, number one receiver, and number one running back missing significant time. When you combine that with the division they played in it is amazing that they finished 8-8.
If the Texans are going to compete in this division, they are going to have to keep those guys healthy. That is going to be a difficult task. Andre Johnson has already had offseason knee surgery and will not be participating in team practices before training camp. Ahman Green is 31 years old and has not been consistently healthy and effective since 2004.
The Texans addressed their running back depth in the draft by signing Chris Brown from the Titians and selecting Steve Slaton. While his stock dropped this year, he is going into a perfect zone blocking system for his abilities. Still, the Texans ranked 22nd in rushing yards gained in 2007. If all 3 can stay healthy, the Texans have a good rotation and should be able to improve on that number.
On defense the team is still improving. Mario Williams had 14 sacks in his second season and is still 23 years old. Amobi Okoye had 5.5 sacks as a rookie defensive tackle and is just 21 years old. Those two are developing into what could be a dominant defensive line for years to come. Demeco Ryans played in his first pro bowl and is quickly becoming a solid middle linebacker. He is just 24 years old. If their young defenders continue to progress, they should be able to improve on their 22nd ranked scoring defense.
Weaknesses: The Texans have a number of areas in which they need to improve. They have a lot of good parts, but they need them to perform better in terms of the production they get from their units.
Take the pass rush. As I said earlier, Williams and Okoye is an excellent tandem. But the Texans recorded only 31.0 sacks, which ranked tied for 21st. That means those two combined for 63% of the team’s sacks. They have to get more sacks from the rest of their defensive line and linebackers. That lack of pressure also explains why the Texans finished tied for last in interceptions with 11. They drafted Antwaun Molden and Dominique Barber in the draft to help improve the secondary.
The receiving game is another example. Johnson was only 5 catches of the team lead in receptions. He had 60 receptions and Walter had 65. He led the team in receiving yards (851), and receiving touchdowns (8); despite missing 7 starts with a knee injury. They need to get more production out of their other receivers.
The offensive line is also a big concern. That was the main motivation for drafting Duane Brown, an offensive tackle out of Virginia Tech. They will need him to make an immediate impact to protect Schaub.
The Texans just need to find more consistency with their young players if they want to take the jump in this very tough division. It is hard to make strides when the other 3 teams in the division all made the playoffs last year.
Prediction: I like what the Texans are doing, but I still think they are a year away. Their good players are still very young on defense, and while they have good skill position players on offense, they need to get better blocking out of the offensive line if those players are going to realize their full potential.
The Texans have some winnable games on their schedule. They play the Dolphins and Raiders. The Lions and Bears could produce victories. Baltimore and Cincinnati are winnable. The problem is the beginning of their schedule. They play at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee in 3 of their first 4 games, with their sole home game being against Baltimore in Week 2. Then they play Indy in Week 5. They could easily be 1-4 to start the season. Then in Week 11 they begin a 4 game stretch at Indy, at Cleveland, Jacksonville, and at Green Bay on December 7th.
In the end I look for Houston to have a similar year to last season. They will play people tough and continue to improve, but they are still probably a year away from breaking through in the AFC South.
Houston Texan’s Record: 7-9 – AFC South 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
We started to see some teams clinch playoff spots. The Patriots clinched the AFC East last week. The Cowboys, Packers, and Seahawks clinched their divisions this week. Indianapolis clinched at least a wildcard. A win over Oakland next week would clinch their division. Meanwhile Miami is still looking for victory #1 against the Ravens this week. If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game. It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter. Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it. I hereby present to you a recap of the fourteenth week in the National Football League.
Standings
AFC East NFC East 1.New England (13-0)** 1.Dallas (12-1)** 2.Buffalo (7-6) 2.NY Giants (9-4) 3.NY Jets (3-10) 3.Washington (6-7) 4. Miami (0-13) 4.Philadelphia (5-8)
AFC South NFC South 1.Indianapolis (11-2)* 1. Tampa Bay (8-5) 2. Jacksonville (9-4) 2. New Orleans (6-7) 3. Tennessee (7-6) 3. Carolina (5-8) 4. Houston (6-7) 4. Atlanta (3-10)
AFC North NFC North 1.Pittsburgh (9-4) 1.Green Bay (10-2)** 2.Cleveland (8-5) 2. Minnesota (7-6) 3.Cincinnati (5-8) 3. Detroit (6-7) 4.Baltimore (4-9) 4.Chicago (5-8)
AFC West NFC West 1. San Diego (8-5) 1. Seattle (9-4)** 2. Denver (6-7) 2.Arizona (6-7) 3. Kansas City (4-9) 3. San Francisco (3-10) 4. Oakland (4-9) 4. St Louis (3-10)
**Clinched Division * Clinched Playoff Spot
MVP of the Week: As is usually the case, it is hard to not go with Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Brady had 399 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. Moss had 135 yards and 2 touchdowns. So much for the guarantee. Jason Witten tied an NFL record for Tight Ends with 15 receptions. He also had 138 yards and a touchdown. Finally Ryan Grant had 156 yards rushing and a touchdown for the Packers in their win over Oakland.
Game of the Week: Pretty hard not to go with the Lions and Cowboys. The Lions had a 27-14 lead entering the 4th quarter. They were still sitting pretty at 27-21 with Jason Hanson poised to put the Lions up 9 points. However, he missed his field goal and the Cowboys produced two game winning drives. The first drive prematurely ended with Jason Witten fumbling on the one-yard line. The Lions gave the ball back to the Cowboys with a little over 2 minutes left in the game and no timeouts. They allowed Dallas to march the field and Witten scored the go ahead touchdown with less than :20 seconds to play.
Loser of the Weak: Kansas City for starters. How does a team lose 41-7 to a Denver team in the midst of a 2 game losing streak and coming off a 14-point loss at Oakland. Rushing 16 times for 17 yards against arguably the worst run defense in the league will help make that happen. Kurt Warner. 5 sacks and 5 interceptions in a game where you are fighting for a shot at the division is inexcusable. He has played in too many big games to come up that small. Pittsburgh. Keep your second string safety in check before you start spouting off to the big boys. That was a team that did way too much talking this week and was not ready to play a team like New England on the road. Finally Miami. I understand they are not a very good football team, but they are not 21 points worse that Buffalo. You would hope to get more heart out of a team looking for the
