This is my second of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC East is probably the most competitive division headed into the 2008 season. The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Dallas Cowboys won 13 games and had the number one seed in the NFC. The Redskins won their last 4 games to make the playoffs as the final wildcard. Finally, the Eagles finished strong and were a very dangerous 8-8 team at the end of the season that did not qualify for the postseason. The only other division that has a claim to being as competitive as the NFC East would be the AFC South, which also had 3 teams qualify for the playoffs in 2007.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)Dallas Cowboys
07 Record: 13-3
Points Scored: 455 (2nd)
Points Allowed: 325 (13th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule:134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Dallas Cowboys had a very impressive start to their 2007 season. In their first 13 games they went 12-1 with their only loss being to the New England Patriots. In their first 12 games they outscored their opponents 395-248, or by an average of 12.25 points per game. After their 37-27 victory against 10-1 Green Bay they looked poised to be the NFC favorite to take on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, things didn’t go according to plan. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games and were outscored 60-77. Then the Cowboys were upset in the playoffs, by the eventual champion NY Giants, 21-17. It was a very disappointing end to a season that looked destined to end with a Super Bowl appearance.
The Cowboys had a load of talent on their roster in 2007. They sent a record 11 players to the Pro Bowl, 7 of which were starters. The number one strength on the Cowboys was the offensive line. 3 of their 7 Pro Bowl starters came from that unit, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode. With Tony Romo given plenty of time to throw the ball and the numerous great weapons they had on offense the Cowboys put up points with great ease. Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns in his first full year starting. Jason Witten had a career year at tight end with 96 catches for 1145 yards and 7 touchdowns. Terrell Owens had 81 catches for 1355 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marion Barber posted 975 rushing yards and 282 receiving yards to go along with his 12 touchdowns. Nick Folk made the Pro Bowl as the NFC Kicker.
What it adds up to is an offense that dominated the NFC. Furthermore, their only key loss on offense was Julius Jones, who signed with Seattle. The Cowboys have taken care of that loss. They added RB Felix Jones in the first round and TE Martellus Bennett to play opposite Witten in the second round.
The only need the Cowboys did not address this season was wide receiver. TO is still an elite NFL receiver, but he is going to be 35 years old. Terry Glenn was hurt until the final game of the season. He is going to be 34. Patrick Crayton had a solid year filling in for Glenn, but still has a ways to go.
It is obvious the Cowboys would be in trouble if TO missed significant time. Teams don’t have backups that can produce at the same level as him. He is an elite wide receiver. Still without him in the lineup they go from scary to below average at the receiver position. He must find a way to stay healthy and play as close to 16 games as possible, something he hasn’t done since 2001.
Weaknesses: The defense was the major issue with the Cowboys in 2007. The Cowboys had a great front 7. They were able to finish 6th in rushing yards allowed. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware was named a starter to the Pro Bowl. He had 14 sacks. That was another area the Cowboys excelled at, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks. They also did well forcing turnovers. The Cowboys finished 6th in the NFL with 19 picks. Ken Hamlin and Terrance Newman were chosen as Pro Bowl reserves. Both started for the Cowboys in their secondary.
What the Cowboys didn’t do is stop the pass very well. They finished 13th in the league in that regard. As a result of the yards they gave up in the passing game and the 19 interceptions that Tony Romo threw the Cowboys gave up 20.3 points per game, which ranked 13th. For all the great plays Tony Romo makes he needs to cut down on the interceptions if the Cowboys are going to be playing February football.
I’m not saying the Cowboys were horrible on defense. They did a lot of things well and their weaknesses are not that bad in the whole scheme of things. However, if the Cowboys want to reach their desired destination as Super Bowl Champions, they need to sure up those areas.
The Cowboys tried to do that this offseason. They made their second first round pick a corner in Michael Jenkins. They also traded for PacMan Jones. If he can stay out of trouble and gain reinstatement from the NFL, he should be able to help this team. The signing of Zach Thomas could be big as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice veteran presence in the middle of the Cowboy’s Defense.
Prediction: It is either the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. The Cowboys have made the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. As an organization, they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Combined with the talent they bring back and the new talent they acquired via 2 first round draft picks, Zach Thomas, and PacMan Jones; expectations will be through the roof. Chemistry will be a big issue in 2008. While the talent of the Cowboys is not questioned, how that talent will interact in the locker room still is. Also Tony Romo needs to cut down on his distractions off the field. There is nothing wrong with him using his celebrity to his advantage, but it shouldn’t be spilling onto the football field. He has to minimize those things as much as possible.
The Cowboys always have a brutal divisional schedule. They get 4 playoff games in the division and the Philadelphia Eagles who beat them at the end of last season in Dallas. Their out of conference schedule appears to be a little tougher than 2007. While the Patriots and Packers were very tough, those were the only two-playoff teams they faced outside the division. This year they get Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is difficult to say if those teams will be as good in 2008 as they were a year ago. Pittsburgh and Cleveland also provide some competitive games. I think the Cowboys will have roughly the same record as they did in 2007, but I don’t expect them to jump out to the 12-1 start they did a year ago. If the Cowboys can cut down on their turnovers and stop the pass better in 2008, there is no reason this team will not finish as the NFC’s number one seed for the second year in a row.
2008 Strength of Schedule:133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the division since 2000. The Eagles have won the division 5 times and made the playoffs 6 times. Prior to 2007 the Eagles had missed the playoffs only once, which was in 2005 during the season of the TO circus.
However, last season the Eagles finished in last place in the NFC East and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Still the Eagles had a number of good things working for them. Most last place teams finish 4-12, not 8-8. The Eagles finished the season strong and had it not been for a 3 game losing streak to end November and begin December the Eagles could have made the playoffs.
On offense, Brian Westbrook quietly had a 2,104 all-purpose yard season. He also scored 12 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback was coming off a serious knee injury in 2006 and the Eagles did not have a dominant receiving core; Westbrook should be applauded for his productivity in 2007. He is the most complete running back in the NFL not name LT.
Donovan McNabb did fairly well coming back from knee surgery. He started 14 games and had 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to go with his 89.9 QB rating. Kevin Curtis and McNabb had good chemistry at times. Curtis was able to finish with 1,110 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.
However, as usual the main strength of the Eagles was their defense. Under Jimmy Johnson the Eagles have been a mainstay in the top rankings of the NFL’s defenses. The Eagles 300 points allowed ranked 9th in the NFL. They also ranked 10th in yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. Trent Cole registered 12.5 sacks.
Weaknesses: The Eagles had 3 main weaknesses in 2007. The first was a lack of quality playmakers. Other than Brian Westbrook, there is no one on the Eagles that keeps defensive coordinators up into all hours of the night game planning.
Some will point to Kevin Curtis and suggest that he has the potential to be a number one receiver as evidenced by his 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is blindly looking at stats and not looking at how they were obtained. In week 3 Curtis had the game of his life. He had 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means in the other 15 games he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and 1 touchdown every 5 games. That just is not acceptable from a number one receiver. Reggie Brown also regressed in 2007. He went from 8 touchdowns in 2006 to 4 in 2007 and his yards dropped from 816 to 780. He did not have the breakout year he was hoping for. The Eagles did add DeShaun Jackson to provide depth in the return game and at the 3rd receiver spot. However, they were not able to obtain that impact wide receiver this offseason.
The second problem was their return team. The fumbles they had in punt return game against Green Bay alone cost them that game. They needed to find a quality return man as Westbrook is to valuable to risk injury at that position. Jackson should be an immediate impact in that regard.
The final weakness was in the secondary. The Eagles ranked 18th in yards allowed and their defense finished tied for last in the NFL in interceptions with just 11. Part of that was due to the rash of injuries they suffered in their secondary at the beginning of the season. That was the motivation for landing the prize of the 2008 free agency period in Samuel. He is a great playmaker that should fit into the Eagles secondary. If Brown, Shepherd, and Dawkins can stay healthy the Eagles have the potential to make a lot more plays in the secondary. It will also give Jimmy Johnson more flexibility to blitz knowing he has the secondary to cover the receivers in one-on-one coverage. That should be a big boost for the Eagles in their team sack numbers.
Prediction: The problem with picking the Eagles to do anything is you never know if Donovan McNabb is going to play a whole season. 2004 is the last season he stayed healthy. Since then he has missed 15 of a possible 48 games with injury. If he is not able to play 13-16 games it is difficult to imagine that the Eagles have the necessary parts in place to survive in a brutal NFC East.
Regardless, you can always count on Andy Reid and Jimmy Johnson to keep the Eagles ship steady and that starts with their strong defense. I don’t see McNabb returning to his 2004 numbers. I don’t believe the Eagles have the offensive weapons in place to do so. However, they don’t need him to do that. If he could just get back to his 2000 and 2001 production when he threw in the low 3,000 yard range and low 20 touchdown range the Eagles should be in great shape, given the emergence of Brian Westbrook as an elite NFL playmaker and a defense that is capable of stopping people. Donovan McNabb completing passes and taking care of the ball is enough for this team to win. That is something he is very good at as his interceptions per attempt is one of the best in NFL history. He started to look more like his old self at the end of the season.
Last year was expected, as he was coming off a serious ACL tear. Now that he is one year removed, he should be able to relax more, play with more confidence, and take the Eagles back to the playoffs. While I don’t believe they have enough offensive weapons to win the division, I would think that 10 wins are well within their reach.
Philadelphia Eagle’s Record: 10-6 – NFC East 2nd Place; NFC #5 Seed
3)New York Giants
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 373 (14th)
Points Allowed: 351 (17th)
Playoff Result: Won Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule: 133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The NY Giants were the most unlikely of Super Bowl Champions. At 10-6 they were the 5th seed in the NFC and were faced with having to win 4 games away from home. They had lost 2 of their final 3 games of the season, but seem to gain momentum with their strong performance against the Patriots in the season finale. Still #5 seeds are not supposed to win Super Bowls.
However, the Giants had gone 7-1 in the regular season on the road, losing their only road game in the opener. The NY Giants rode that road dominance to 11 straight road victories and the Super Bowl trophy.
The strength of the New York Giants is their front 4 on defense. Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Fred Robbins form one of the best defensive front fours in the entire NFL. The NY Giants generated to most pressure on the quarterback in 2007 generating an amazing 53 sacks.
At the beginning of the season the linebackers and secondary could not cover anyone. As the season progressed, the Giants got better in that regard. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster became much better at covering the pass in the second half of the season. While the Giants did lose Gibril Wilson to the Raiders in free agency, they also drafted Kenny Phillips to come into the organization and compete for the starting safety spot.
The linebacker spot is the unit on defense with the most questions. Pierce is still a strong middle linebacker and Mathias Kiwanuka should be ready for the start of the season. He was injured toward the end of the 2007 regular season. This is a unit that did not begin to gel until later in the season, but once everything came together the defense was able to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl title. Mitchell and Torbor were loss to free agency, so they will have to replace them in 2008.
On offense, the strength of the team was their running game. The NY Giants finished 4th in the NFL with a host of running backs. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns all contributed at times in 2007.
Eli Manning had a very average regular season. He had a 73.9 rating and 20 interceptions to go with his 3,336 yards passing and 23 touchdown throws. But was able to put everything together and lead his team to the Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress is a fantastic wide receiver and had 12 touchdown catches. Jeremy Shockey is a good tight end, but was the subject of trade rumors this offseason after the NY Giants offense didn’t miss a beat in the wake of his injury. He is still very talented and will help an offense that features Toomer, Smith, Tyree, and rookie Mario Manningham.
Weaknesses: The NY Giants have a couple of big question marks headed into the season. 1) Which Eli Manning is going to show up in 2008? The one that killed his team with a poor completion percentage and 20 interceptions or the one that started playing after the NY Giants lost to the Patriots in the season finale. If the Giants are going to excel in the regular season, Eli has to take care of the ball for an entire 16 game season. While I don’t expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, I don’t think he will return to his 2007 regular season numbers. I expect something in between the two. I would think that he would get 3,500 yards, 25 touchdown throws, and 12-15 interceptions.
The second question is whether Michael Strahan is going to retire or comeback for another season. Personally, I think he would be unwise to come back in 2008. He will be 37 in November and what better way to go out than win a Super Bowl in your final game. He is nowhere close to catching Bruce Smith for the NFL record in sacks and now that he is a champion he has nothing left to prove. Anything short of repeating would be a disappointing season.
If he doesn’t comeback, how is that going to affect the dynamics of the Giants front 4? Similar to the Packers who are losing Favre, there is a lot of talent in that front 7. However, because none of those players have played without Strahan, it is unclear whether or not the Giants defense will be as dominant without him. The Giants do not have a good record in recent years when he doesn’t play.
Prediction: The Giants are a difficult team to predict for 2008. They basically played 2 seasons in 2007. Week 1-15 where they turned the ball over too much and had problems stopping downfield passing offenses and Week 16 through the Super Bowl where they were difficult to move the ball against and took care of the ball. Regardless, they averaged 21.25 points per game in the postseason, so if anyone thinks this offense is going to evolve into the 2007 Patriots, I think they are going to be in shock. This is a team that is going to run the ball, take their shots downfield, and rely on their defense to win games. I think as their younger receivers develop, we may see them put a few more points on the board.
As I stated earlier, the big key is going to be the decision of Michael Strahan and whether or not he wants to return in 2008. If he does they will be a formidable opponent and will challenge the Cowboys for the division. If he doesn’t they still will be very good, but probably in the running for the final playoff spot. I don’t think he is going to comeback, and therefore I am predicting about the same record in 2008 and the #6 seed for the defending champions.
NY Giants Record:9-7 – NFC East 3rd Place; NFC #6 seed
4)Washington Redskins
07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: In 2007 the Redskins looked like a ship that was sinking fast. After a 5-3 start to the season, they lost 4 games in a row and were sitting at 5-7. Sean Taylor was tragically shot dead in his home. When the Redskins lost to the Bills largely on a timeout mishap that gave the Bills a field goal that was 15 yards closer to win the game the season looked to be lost. However, the Redskins won their last 4 games of the season guided by the veteran backup Todd Collins, they were able to sneak into the playoffs as the # 6 seed before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in what would be Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibb’s last game.
Jim Zorn is inheriting a strong cast of players. Clinton Portis was able to stay relatively healthy in 2007 and rushed for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jason Campbell was able to make good strides, despite not having much help at the receiver position. Todd Collins is a solid backup.
On defense the Redskins finished 4th against the run and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Their front 7 set the tempo for this defense. Andre Carter had 10.5 sacks.
The secondary was fairly average. LaRon Landry looks like the real deal at safety and Rodgers, Springs, and Smoot are solid corners. The Redskins ranked 16th in passing yards allowed. Some games they were brilliant, such as Tampa Bay and Detroit when they allowed less than 100 yards passing. Other games like the road games against Dallas and New England they allowed way to many yards. The Redskins will have to find a way to replace Sean Taylor in their secondary. While I hate to talk Xs and Os when there was such a human tragedy involved, the fact still remains that the Redskins were a much tougher pass defense when he was starting. Replacing a player that was as talented as he was is difficult.
Weaknesses: The Redskins really struggled to move the ball threw the air. Part of that was Jason Campbell entering his first year as the full time starter. Anytime a team puts a young quarterback in the line up there are going to be up’s and downs. However, the fact remains that he had one touchdown pass or less in 10 of his 13 starts. That number has to improve.
A lot of that has to be blamed on the receivers. Portis had 11 touchdown runs and tight end Chris Cooley caught 8 touchdowns. However, no receiver caught a touchdown until James Thrash did in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is unacceptable. The Redskins overhauled the receiver position this offseason by drafting Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas in the 2nd round. I really liked the draft approach by the Redskins to get younger and bigger at wide receiver. Both are bigger receivers and should be better targets in the redzone.
Still, rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first year. While Randy Moss exploded into the league in Year 1, even great receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne took a few years to blossom. If this unit is going to be viable in 2008, Santana Moss must step up to the plate. The Redskins have to score more than 334 points playing in a division with Dallas, New York Giants, and Philly.
Prediction: The Redskins are in the unfortunate position of being in a very tough division. Jason Campbell is a nice quarterback that in a division like the NFC North would be in the running for the best quarterback in the division or in the AFC East would be in the running for best quarterback in the division not named Tom Brady. Here he is clearly the 4th quarterback in this division. Portis may be the 3rd best back in the division. Cooley made the Pro Bowl and isn’t even the best tight end in the division. The Redskins still lack the players at the skill positions to score enough points on a consistent basis to win the tough games they will have to play in the division. I like the moves they made in the draft and graded them very high. Still, those players will take a couple years to develop.
The schedule doesn’t set up as nice for the Redskins in 2008. In addition to the division, they have to travel to Seattle and play Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home. New Orleans is going to be a tough game. When you combine that with the 6 games they play in the division and I see them taking a step back in 2008.
Washington Redskin’s Record:7-9 – NFC East 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
Donovan McNabb has reopened a debate that has been in the NFL forefront for sometime. McNabb was interviewed by James Brown of HBO Sports and the topic came up as to whether Black NFL Quarterbacks are treated differently than White NFL Quarterbacks. To summarize his interview, McNabb stated that black NFL quarterbacks face more pressure, scrutiny and criticism than their white counterparts.
I thought it would be interesting to look at this argument statistically and see whether his claims had any merit. This is the list of the top 5 white quarterbacks playing in 2006: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger, and Drew Brees. I understand that Brett Favre would be on the list if we were looking at this historically. I also understand Phillip Rivers was in the Pro Bowl and Tom Brady was not. However, if you were starting a franchise today, these would be the top 5 white quarterbacks that most NFL general managers would have on the top of their list.
In 2006, the top 5 starting black quarterbacks would be as follows: Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Vince Young, Steve McNair, and David Garrard. McNabb did not start the whole year due to injury and Garrard shared time with Byran Leftwich. To make things fair, I averaged the statistics out based on the number of games played: Here is what I came up with:
Manning, Brady, Palmer, Bulger, Brees – The five quarterbacks played in an average of 16 games. They averaged passing for 4,136 yards, 26.6 touchdowns, 10.6 interceptions for the 2006 season. This comes to an average of 258.5 yards per game, 1.7 touchdown passes, and 0.7 picks per contest. They combined for an average QB rating of 94.4. Their teams combined for a record of 50-30 or an average of 10 wins on the 2006 season. Three of them reached the playoffs. Those three started in the conference championship games. Manning went on to win the Super Bowl.
McNabb, Vick, Young, McNair, Garrard – The five quarterbacks played in 68 out of 80 games. They averaged passing for 2,421 yards, 15.2 touchdowns, and 10.6 interceptions. This comes to an average of 178.0 yards per game, 1.1 touchdowns passes, and 0.8 picks per contest. They combined for an average QB rating of 80.2. Their teams combined for a record of 9.2 wins, which is just slightly below the star white QBs. Two of them reached the playoffs, although McNabb was on IR for the playoff run. McNair lost his first playoff game to Manning’s Colts.
One thing to keep in mind is that Michael Vick on his own out produced the 5 white QBs in rushing yards and touchdowns. Young probably did the same. However, the quarterback position has traditionally been evaluated on the QBs ability to pass the football. Steve Young was a great scrambler too. He didn’t start getting his just due until his passing numbers went off the charts.
The only quarterback on the black quarterback list that rivals the white quarterbacks as a passer are McNair and McNabb. McNair put up insane numbers while in college. While he has won an MVP, he has never put up gaudy passing numbers in the pros. McNabb is very similar to McNair, except he did have one season where he put up gaudy numbers, which was 2004. The rest of his career he has been a low 3,000 yard passer around 20 touchdown passes.
It is unfair to judge the black quarterback’s treatment if you are going to compare that treatment to a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, etc. The reason this is unfair is that their black counterparts are not putting up passing numbers that are even in the realm of equivalence. If there were currently a black quarterback that was throwing for those numbers on a consistent basis, we could compare the treatment. For instance, if Warren Moon were playing today, we would have a quarterback that was in the same statistical area. However, because there is currently not a quarterback that is throwing for 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 picks, we are left to compare apples and oranges.
The bottom line is that quarterbacks are judged on two things. First, and foremost, it is how they throw the ball. Do they throw for a lot of yards? Do they score a lot of touchdowns? Do they throw very few interceptions? However, doing that alone will not keep you employed. Ask Jeff George. Secondly, you not only have to win, but you have to be perceived as the reason your team won. You have to matter. That is why Troy Aikman was able to come back in 1994 after throwing 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 1993. On the other hand, Trent Dilfer, who threw 12 touchdowns and 11 picks in 9 games in 2001 was asked to find a new team to sign his paychecks. Both won the Super Bowl. However, Aikman was considered a catalyst for those Super Bowls, where as Dilfer was considered a liability.
A perfect present day example would be Rex Grossman. He led his team to the Super Bowl, or followed them there, depending on your perspective. His team was 13-3, and the number one team in the NFC. His Bears scored the 2nd most points of any team in the NFL. He threw for 3193 yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 picks, and had a QB rating of 73.9. I live in Chicago. I hear everyday how the Bears need a new QB. The perception is that the Bears are a QB away from winning the Super Bowl. The perception is that the Bears are winning despite Grossman, not because of him. I believe that Rex Grossman is currently the most scrutinized quarterback in the NFL.
A close second would be Eli Manning. Not only does he quarterback in New York, but his older brother is arguably the best QB in the game. He threw for 3,244 yards, 24 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 77.0. However, he is not his brother. His Giants started the season 6-2, before finishing 8-8. They made the playoffs and lost their first round game. It was widely accepted that if he does deliver a 3,500 yard, 25 touchdown, 15 interception season, with a QB rating in the mid 80s that results in his team making the playoffs; that the Giants would be looking to bring in competition for his job. The only reason he is not under fire for the Giants 0-2 start is because he has played well and the defense has given up 80 points. Check back next week for his status.
Quarterback is the most unfair position to play in sports. Quarterbacks get way to much credit when the team wins. The Quarterback gets way to much blame when the team loses. Quarterback is known as a what have you done lately position. They can be throwing parades in your honor one day, and throwing you out of town the next. It is not unprecedented that successful quarterbacks have lost their job rather quickly.
In 1989 Joe Montana won the League and Super Bowl MVP. He followed that up with a 14-2 record and a loss in the Championship Game in 1990. Due to the injury he suffered in that Championship Game, he missed the 1991 season and almost all of the 1992 season. Despite having won 4 Super Bowls in San Francisco and being widely considered the best QB to ever play the game, the 49ers shipped him to Kansas City for the 1993 season, because they felt Steve Young gave them the best chance to win in 1993. This was the same Steve Young that had never won a Super Bowl as a starter and was the pre 2006 Peyton Manning of his day, the great QB that couldn’t win the big game.
Kurt Warner won a Super Bowl in 1999. He also won the regular season and Super Bowl MVP. In 2001, he duplicated that regular season MVP performance and lost the Super Bowl. His offense finished #1 in both scoring and yardage in 1999, 2000, and 2001. In 2002 he was injured and looked shaky. By 2003 Marc Bulger had the job in hand. In 2004, Warner was playing for the Giants.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not so naïve that I believe that professional sports is a 100% racist free world. There is still racism in our society. Professional sports is part of our society. Therefore, there is no reason to believe that racism is not present in professional sports. However, this notion that black quarterbacks have to do something extra to keep their job is, in my opinion, preposterous.
I don’t know how any quarterback keeps his job. The Favres, Mannings, and Bradys amaze me with their ability to keep their jobs year after year. Most owners are not going to hang on to white quarterbacks that can’t produce. Most of the media is not going to baby white quarterbacks. The majority of the people associated with the NFL are about winning today. Not tomorrow and not yesterday.
What do Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell have in common? They are all black quarterbacks that were top 5 picks in the draft since 1999, the year Donovan McNabb was selected with the second overall pick. In comparison, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Tim Couch were the white QBs that shared that honor.
That means seven white quarterbacks compared to five black quarterbacks taken in the first five picks of the first round since Donovan McNabb was drafted. Five of the white quarterbacks are starters, compared to two for the black quarterbacks. If Michael Vick could have avoided legal problems, Joey Harrington wouldn’t be a starter and it would be four to three. If JaMarcus Russell had not held out the entire preseason, it might have even been a tie.
Furthermore, JaMarcus Russell, the star black quarterback in this years draft was picked number one, while his white counterpart, Brady Quinn dropped to the end of the first round. This isn’t the league that Warren Moon was faced with in the late 1970’s. If a black quarterback proves that he is NFL capable in college, not only will he be drafted, he will be drafted very high. While some will point to Heisman winner Troy Smith dropping to the 5th round this year, I will point to Eric Crouch, a Heisman winner that was not drafted by the Rams to play QB, but Wide Receiver. If the NFL is putting more pressure, scrutiny and criticism on black quarterbacks than their white counterparts, it sure isn’t showing in the war room on draft day.
I do not know Donovan McNabb personally. The impression that I get from Donovan McNabb is that he has a chip on his shoulder. I think he has that chip on his shoulder because he isn’t held in the same esteem as the other top quarterbacks in the game, something he feels he has earned. What he is forgetting is that even the league’s elite face tough scrutiny.
Ask Manning what it is like to be the best QB in the game. I’m sure he wouldn’t say free from criticism and doubt. Manning has won 2 League MVPs and threw for 49 touchdowns in a season. Until last season that wasn’t good enough, because he was the Pro Bowl QB that couldn’t win the “big game.” He sort of silenced those critics by winning the Super Bowl MVP. However, the criticism was that while he won the Super Bowl, the defense and running game played too big of a role in delivering that Super Bowl. He didn’t play well enough to take enough credit for the Colts run. Therefore he still isn’t the big game QB that he should be. Talk about tough and unfair criticism.
Carson Palmer is not being criticized yet, because he has only been starting for 3 years. Bulger is entering his 5th season as the opening day starter. Brees is in his second year with New Orleans and is entering his 6th season as a starter. Furthermore, all three of those teams have horrible defenses that are considered the part of the team that is holding the franchise back. However, if postseason success eludes these young quarterbacks, they too will soon be labeled as disappointments. If Brees doesn’t turn around this season, he will be the first to hear those criticisms.
McNabb has been a starter since the 2000 season. To his credit, he throws very few interceptions. McNabb is the second least intercepted quarterback per pass attempt in NFL history, behind only Neil O'Donnell. McNabb's career ratio is 1 interception per every 45.26 pass attempts. This leads to his very respectable career QB rating of 85.2. He makes a lot of exciting plays and played in four consecutive championship games from 2001-2004. He went to the Super Bowl 2004. In his defense, other than 2004, he has never had a game changing wide receiver.
However, McNabb has a lot of negative points too. To his detriment, he has a 58.1% career completion percentage. He has only thrown over 3500 yards once. He has only thrown over 20 touchdowns three times. Furthermore, while other than TO, he has never played with a “game changing” wide receiver, he has played with a defense that finished in the top five in scoring defense 4 times, and was 7th in 2003. Bulger, Brees, and Palmer have had the luxury exactly 0 times combined.
When Donovan McNabb played well, he was given his just due. His successful play led to many endorsements, not only for him, but his mother. His most notable commercial was the Chunky Soup Commercials. He also graced the cover of the 2006 John Madden Football game. In 2004, he was widely considered the 3rd best QB in the game, behind Manning and Brady. Had he maintained those numbers, he would still be receiving the same compliments he did in 2004. However, while Brady and Manning have maintained their stats and team success, Donovan has not. Trust me, if Peyton Manning plays 10 games the next 2 seasons and doesn’t break 20 touchdown passes or 3,500 yards, the cries for a replacement will be heard loud and clear.
McNabb is now over 30. While he has been a successful quarterback, he is by no means a Hall of Fame Quarterback. He has not won a Super Bowl. He has played 10 games or less 3 of the last 5 seasons, and finished the season on IR the last 2 seasons. His mobility looks diminished; he is throwing the ball for a 54% completion percentage. His team has scored one touchdown in over 20 offensive possessions this season. I think it is a fair question for the media, fans, and the franchise to ask if his best days are behind him and if the Eagles would be better served to move in a different direction. I think there are legitimate arguments on both sides of the issue. If Donovan McNabb were white, we would be having the exact same conversation.
Donovan needs to stop worrying about how people view his legacy, and whether that view is just. What is most important is how Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles view his current performance. He needs to get his knee right and start winning some football games. He needs to start playing like he did in 2004 and the beginning of last season. This isn’t happening because the League, the Media, and the Fans want to see one less quarterback starting in the NFL. This isn’t about diminishing what he did in 2004. This is about whether Donovan McNabb has what it takes to be an effective quarterback in 2007.
For his sake, he better figure it out fairly quickly. If the Eagles miss the playoffs, he, like black and white quarterbacks that have been injured or unproductive for multiple years before him, will be looking for new employment in 2008. Who knows, maybe he will replace Rex Grossman. Then we can listen to Rex Grossman complain about the raw deal he received in Chicago. Wouldn’t that be an ironic twist?
The offenses started to kick it into full gear in week 2. Well, at least the offenses in Ohio. It was an exciting week of NFL action. If I didn’t mention your favorite player or team, it isn’t because I didn’t watch the game or research the game. It’s because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter. Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it. I hereby present to you a recap of Week 2 in the National Football League.
Standings
AFC EastNFC East 1.New England (2-0) 1.Dallas (2-0) 2.Buffalo (0-2) 2.Washington (2-0) 3.Miami (0-2) 3.NY Giants (0-2) 4. NY Jets (0-2) 4.Philadelphia (0-2)
AFC SouthNFC South 1.Houston (2-0) 1. Carolina (1-1) 2.Indianapolis (2-0) 2. Tampa Bay (1-1) 3. Tennessee (1-1) 3. New Orleans (0-2) 4. Jacksonville (1-1) 4. Atlanta (0-2)
AFC North NFC North 1.Pittsburgh (2-0) 1.Detroit (2-0) 2.Cleveland (1-1) 2.Green Bay (2-0) 3.Cincinati (1-1) 3.Chicago (1-1) 4.Baltimore (1-1) 4.Minnesota (1-1)
AFC WestNFC West 1. Denver (2-0) 1. San Fran (2-0) 2. San Diego (1-1) 2. Arizona (1-1) 3. Kansas City (0-2) 3. Seattle (1-1) 4. Oakland (0-2) 4. St Louis (0-2)
MVP of the Week: This is a pretty easy pick. I’m not too proud to say that I got it wrong about a team. The Cleveland Browns looked awful last week. They looked like they wouldn’t score another touchdown all season. They were so bad they traded their starting QB to Seattle. Enter Derek Anderson. 20 for 33, 328 yards and 5 touchdowns, against 1 pick in a 51-45 shootout with the Bengals. Honorable mentions to everyone in this game. This was the first game in NFL history that featured two 300-yard passers, a 200-yard rusher, and a 200-yard receiver. Further mentions to Steve Smith and his 153 yards and 3 touchdowns, Andre Johnson’s 120 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Brett Favre, who threw 3 touchdowns in his 149th career victory, passing John Elway for first on the all time wins list for starting quarterbacks.
Game of the Week: Cleveland and Cincy played one for the ages. Or at least since 2004. Back then; these teams actually gave us a higher scoring performance, a 58-48 shootout won by the Bengals in Cincy. This time, Cleveland returned the favor by winning 51-45 in Cleveland. The teams combined for 1,076 yards of offense, 12 touchdowns, and 96 points (8th most in NFL history). The game featured two QBs with 5 touchdown passes (Palmer & Anderson), two 300-yard passers (Palmer & Anderson), a 200-yard rusher (Lewis), and a 200-yard receiver (C. Johnson). It was the first time this happened in the history of the NFL. The game was in doubt until the end, when Cleveland intercepted Carson Palmer. A defensive play actually sealed this game. Honorable mentions to Oakland v. Denver, Minnesota v. Detroit, and Seattle v. Arizona. All three were decided by game ending field goals, with Denver and Detroit victorious in OT.
Loser of the Weak: The New Orleans offense. After losing 41-10 to the Colts, they trailed the Bucs 31-7, before scoring a garbage TD to lose 31-14. They have been outscored 72-24 in the first 2 weeks of the season. Sharing the honor is the St Louis offense, which has 30 points in the first two weeks. Jackson had 60 yards on Sunday, raising his total to 118 yards on 39 carries and 0 touchdowns in 2 games this season. The sad thing is that it is almost twice as much as the 68 rushing yards Tomlinson has put up this season. Lee Evans has looked horrible to start the season. His 2 catches for 17 yards on Sunday brought his season total to 4 catches for 22 yards and 0 touchdowns.
The Bay of Pigs: The easy thing to do would be to pick Atlanta and Jacksonville, seeing the score was 13-7. However, at least that game featured two 200-yard passers and no turnovers. I would instead go with the KC v. Bears. The final score was 20-10 Bears. 7 of the Bears 20 points were the result of a Hester return. Grossman threw 2 picks. Huard chipped in with a pick. Neither QB was able to get over 200- yards passing, as both were running for their life most of the day. While some will describe this as a defensive struggle, I would term it an offensive struggle between two teams that have their share of issues on the offensive side of the ball.
The Mike Martz Award (Excellence in Coaching): I’m going to go with Andy Reid’s timeout selection on Monday night. With the Eagles leading 6-3 at the end of the second half, the Redskins began to implode with 3 straight false start penalties. It became so bad, that Gibbs decided to just send out the field goal kicker. Reid might have been unsure about a fake or he might have been trying to ice the kicker. Regardless, he tried to get cute and called a timeout. It gave the Redskins a chance to regroup, call a final play, and throw a touchdown to Cooley. That was a 4-point swing for the Redskins, and gave them huge momentum heading into the half. Reid would have been much better off to have his defense on the field for the kick and let them have the field goal. Instead of going to the locker room tied, he went in down 4 points.
Hospital Visit: The most concerning injuries would be to Andre Johnson of the Texans. Andre Johnson sprained his left knee and is doubtful for the Colts game. That would be a huge loss for the Texans offense. Trevor Pryce suffered a broken wrist and is expected to miss about a month. Brian Dawkins injured his neck in the Monday night game. The severity of the injury is unknown. With Lito Sheppard already out, the Eagles cannot afford to lose more defensive backs with Detroit coming to town.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Rex Grossman & Donovan McNabb are a mess – With respect to Grossman, it just doesn’t appear he will ever get it. He still throws off his back foot. He still makes bad decisions. He has the best D and special teams in the NFL, yet makes every game interesting. According to Fox Sports, Chargers linebacker Matt Wilhelm told the North County Times that former Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera described Grossman as a "mental midget." I couldn’t have said it any better myself.
McNabb is having problems with his knee. He does not appear to have good mobility. The Eagles have scored 1 touchdown in over 20 offensive possessions. His accuracy has much to be desired. That’s saying something for a QB that has about a 58% completion percentage when healthy. The Eagles have started 0-2 under Andy Reid on 2 other occasions. They are by far Reid’s worst two weeks of the season during his head coaching career. It will be interesting to see how a ####ed up Eagle’s secondary responds against a pass happy Detroit. Who would have though the 0-2 Eagles would be hosting the 2-0 Lions in an early “must win” game for the Eagles?
2) The Giants Defense is a mess – People said that the Giants success in 07 would hinge on whether Eli Manning could make the jump. Eli Manning has looked very strong in his first two games. He displayed a lot of leadership in playing through a separated shoulder on Sunday. The Giants Defense is the problem. They have surrendered 80 points and 7 touchdown passes in the first two weeks of the season. They are probably in a must win next week against the 2-0 Redskins. They can’t afford to fall 3 games back in the division this early in the season.
3) Tony Romo is for real – I think Tony Romo has quickly answered any questions about whether or not he is ready to be the next great Cowboys QB. I was more impressed with him this week than in week 1. Anyone can shred a poor defense. Miami is consistently a top 10 defense. Yet Romo generated 37 points for the Cowboys. While he was only 14 for 29 and had under 200-yards, he did not throw an interception. He allowed the game to come to him. If the Cowboys can stop doing their Cincy impersonation on defense, the Cowboys should be in great shape to win the NFC East.
4) Houston looks to be in for a good season – Last week didn’t do much for me. While they beat the Chiefs 20-3, I think the Chiefs are a terrible football team. Beating Carolina in Carolina shows me something. They trailed that game 14-0. Last season this team would have quit. This years Texans put up 31 points and won 34-21. The thing that impressed me was the balance on offense. Green had another workmen like game, and Andre Johnson is starting to show the league what he can do with a real NFL QB. While this is still the Colts division, the Texans are making solid strides to start the season.
5) Slow down Pittsburgh and Detroit – I know that fans of these teams are pumped and ready. I caution fans of both teams. Beating the Raiders, Vikings, Browns, and Bills is not a reason to reserve tickets for the Super Bowl. The Steelers I think have a better chance of maintaining their success. They are just a year removed from their playoff runs, and Big Ben looks to be back to his normal self. I could see this team winning 10 games and competing for the division. The Lions I think are the product of an easy opening schedule. It will be interesting to see how close they get to Kitna’s guarantee of 10 wins once the heart of the schedule shows up.
A Look Ahead: Someone in the AFC East other than the New England Patriots should get a win in Week 3. Although the Bills are playing the Patriots, the Jets and Dolphins square off. If the Patriots win on Sunday, they will have a 3 game lead over Buffalo and the loser of the Jets and Dolphins. In that event, the winner of that contest will trail New England by 2 games and will be looking at second place with a 1-2 record. This week will go a long way in determining if New England is going to run away with this division in September. The top games on the slate in no particular order are as follows:
1) Chargers (1-1) at Packers (2-0) – Now we get to see how good the Green Bay defense has become. If the Packers can hold LT the way the Bears and Pats did they will go along way toward joining the upper defenses in the NFL. For the Packers, this will be a comfortable change from the last few seasons. With their first 2-0 start since 2001, the Packers are not in an early season “must win” game. The good thing for the Packers is that San Diego has problems stopping the pass, which is the strength of the Packer offense. The bad news for Green Bay is that their line has been suspect; something that cannot be comforting to Favre seeing Merriman is coming to town.
2) 49ers (2-0) at Steelers (2-0) – This matches up a pair of 2-0 teams. The 49ers look to continue their early season defensive success, while the Steelers will be looking to key on Frank Gore and the 49er offense. The key to this game should be how much passing offense Alex Smith and the 49er offense can muster. While Frank Gore is a terrific running back, the Steelers are very tough to run against. The 49ers will have to generate offense through the air if they hope to win this game.
3) Indy (2-0) at Houston (2-0) – Probably the most meaningful game in the history of the Texan’s franchise. This is when we will see if Houston is for real. While this is not a must win, they must play well. It is one thing if they lose 27-20. It is another thing if they get blown out 41-6. Houston needs to show that they are a competitive franchise that can play a competitive game against the league’s elite.
4) Dallas (2-0) at Chicago (1-1) – This is an early season matchup between two of the favorites in the NFC. This will be an excellent test for Romo, as he will need to do more of what he did against the Dolphins if he wants to win this game next Sunday. If Romo can avoid the mistakes, Rex Grossman will pick up the slack and help Dallas leave the windy city with a W.
That’s all for this week. Check in next week when I review another slate of NFL games.
Congratulations Donovan McNabb on your 2004 Super Bowl Ring. Joey Porter, you are one of the best linebackers in the history of the NFL with your 3 Super Bowl rings earned since 2001. Peyton Manning, I don’t seem to remember you going winless in Foxboro during the playoffs. Those were some mighty fine performances you gave us.
With the unfolding of the newest scandal to rock professional sports, people are coming forward saying that the Patriots dynasty is the result of smoke and mirrors. Tom Brady is a mirage that was videotaped right before our eyes. According to Jerry Porter, the Patriots were a struggling franchise before 2001, but by using video cameras to tape signals, they transformed themselves into dynasty contenders.
According to the AP, Sheldon Brown said that he noticed a difference in New England’s playcalling in the second quarter of the Super Bowl between the Patriots and Eagles. After the Patriots gained only 45 yards in the first quarter, they had 286 over the next three.
In the same story, Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward said this week that he suspected the Patriots had some type of inside information on the Steelers before at least one of the teams' two AFC championship game matchups since the 2001 season.
First and foremost, what Bill Belichick did was wrong. Every team tries to gain a competitive advantage in a game. He clearly crossed the line. Having an assistant watch signals from the sideline is completely different than videotaping someone’s signals. The NFL Rule’s and Competition Committee outlaws this practice. Belichick had to be aware of these rules. The NFL should punish him for his actions. This punishment came down in the form of a $500,000 fine against Belichick, $250,000 against the Patriots, and the loss of draft picks that will vary depending on the outcome of the Patriots season. Surprisingly, no suspensions were given out. Personally, I would have taken that route rather than the forfeiture of draft picks. However, I believe that the penalty was within the realm of reason. The punishment should serve as a deterrent for future behavior.
Here is my issue. I think the people that were not good enough to beat the Patriots in the playoffs or Super Bowl need to stop embarrassing themselves by opening their mouths on this subject. The overall reaction that I have seen suggests that while Belichick was the one that was caught, he is not the first to have engaged in this practice. The overall feeling is that while no team will admit that they engage in this type of practice, that Belichick did not invent this practice.
Teams playing the Patriots could have taken all kinds of precautions to thwart the Patriot’s attempts to steal signals. 1) The Patriot’s opponent can have two people signal in the plays from the sideline as to confuse the opposition as to which signals are in fact the real ones, 2) The Patriots opponent could switch up the signals in the middle of the game. If they thought the Patriots were on to their signals, they could have switched those signals up during the game and used that switching to their advantage, 3) They could have sent their packages in through substitute players that were entering the game. The fact is that if you are stupid enough to allow the other team to steal your signals, you deserve what you get. If the Patriots were being accused of tapping into the headsets and listening to conversations or plays that the other team was calling we have a much bigger problem. This is something that other team cannot control. To decide not to use the headsets for fear of a tap would cause a competitive disadvantage.
Baseball players have been stealing signs for over a hundred years. The baseball teams have systems in place to prevent runners on second base from relaying signs to the batter. While it is the responsibility of the Patriots to play by the rules, it is equally the responsibility of the opponent to make sure that a system is in place that will not allow signals to be compromised.
While I am not a Patriot fan, I think that what they have accomplished in the last 6 years is pretty amazing. They have won 3 Super Bowls. They have appeared in 4 AFC Championship games. They have won at least one playoff game 5 of the last 6 years. This has been the result of a Hall of Fame Coach, a Hall of Fame Quarterback, and the best front office in football. They have been wise in free agency, evaluated talent in the draft, not been afraid to bring in controversial personalities, and not afraid to cut people that need to be replaced. The Patriots are the model for the rest of the NFL.
This is a tarnish on Bill Belichick’s image. Not an atom bomb, as betting on baseball and the Reds was to Pete Rose. I would compare it to the Sammy Sosa corked bat incident. Clearly, we know that Sammy Sosa did not hit all of his home runs with the help of a corked bat. However, we do know that he cheated, because he was caught in the act. To what extent the corked bat was used during Sammy’s career; no one will ever know.
It is the same in this situation. No one knows how many games the Patriots used the videotape. However, we know that Bill Belichick used it. Therefore, it is a tarnish on his resume, because we will never know how much he used this illegal practice.
The problem is that there are so many other factors in play. If I used a cork bat, I would hit exactly 0 homeruns. In 100 at bats, I would strike out 100 times. Sammy Sosa had the talent to not only hit the ball, but to hit homeruns. To say that his 600+ homeruns were entirely the result of cork is a ridiculous position.
It is the same in this case. Bill Belichick is the best coach in football. Period. If I had videotaped those signals, it would not have turned me into a head coach, much less a Hall of Fame head coach. If Art Shell had those signals his bed and breakfast offensive coordinator would have still scored under 200 points. Players make plays. Players are the ones that execute on the field. Hall of Fame coaches have the ability to maximize the production out of the talent that they have. Videotape or no videotape, Bill Belichick is capable of doing that. To make the assumption that the worst head coach in the NFL could have used this videotape trick and transformed the Cardinals into perennial title contenders is absurd. The Patriots won for more reasons than videotaping signals.
I’ll make another analogy. Saying that Bill Belichick altered the course of NFL history by using this videotape is like saying that if I were to be caught shoplifting that I am damaging the national economy and causing the country to go into a recession. While my act of shoplifting would be wrong and would hurt the storeowner from whom I stole, you have to keep the act itself in prospective. Clearly unemployment, high interest rates, and high gas prices would also play a much larger role in a recession than me not paying for some merchandise.
The sad thing in all this is that Bill Belichick didn’t need to do this to be successful. He is such a good coach to stoop himself to this type of level is unconsciousable. However, the players that were not good enough to win championships need to keep their mouths shut and worry about playing football this season. They need to stop taking advantage of this opportunity to repair their own legacies. Bill Belichick being caught for this does not suddenly turn their past post seasons into success. For these players to use this opportunity to repair their own legacies is shameful.
This incident makes me even more certain that the Patriots will be playing in the Super Bowl. Not only do they have the loss to the Colts in last year’s AFC Championship game to motivate them. Now they have a chip on their shoulder from all the people who doubt their past accomplishments. The whole team has basically been transformed into Randy Moss. Moss is a superstar that has put up every number imaginable that must now prove that he is still a legitimate threat. Did you see what he did when put to that test? I would expect the Patriots to be focused and ready to take the Chargers out this Sunday, and the rest of the NFL for the weeks to come. That is a scary thought for the other 31 teams in the NFL.
With the draft being over and most of the free agents having been signed, the rosters are starting to take hold for the upcoming season. It is still pretty early to do predictions. There may be some free agent signings after June 1st, some rookies and unknowns will emerge during training camp, and the always unpredictable injury bug will cripple teams. However, what would be the fun in waiting until opening day to do some predictions. I am going to post one division each week. I'll list what I feel are each team's strengths and weaknesses. I'll then try to predict the record and placing in the division. After I have done all the divisions, I will make my playoff and Super Bowl predictions. My first division will be the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys
Strengths: This team returns the core that made this a top offense in the NFL last season. Despite Tony Romo not starting the season, the Cowboys were 4th in the league in points scored, and 5th in total yards. Jones and Barber form a terrific duo at running back, and Owens, Glenn, and Witten are excellent targets. The offensive line is solid. This is one of the more balanced offensive attacks in the NFL. The defense has a very intimidating front 7. Ware and Spears are excellent pass rushers. Rookie Anthony Spencer should be able to help in that area as well. Also, the defense was 10th against the run.
Weaknesses: The main weakness is the pass defense. While Terrance Newman is a great cover corner and Roy Williams helps stop the run as well as any safety in the league, the Cowboys gave up too many big plays last year. The Saints exposed what a balanced attack could do to the Cowboys at the end of last season. Ken Hamlin will be an upgrade at safety. Anthony Henry needs to play better than he did last year. While cornerback was addressed in the 7th round, those players will probably not contribute as starters this upcoming season. The other area of concern is whether Wade Phillips is the right person for this job. While has made the playoffs with the Bills and Broncos, he has never taken a team on a deep playoff run. Handling personalities is always a concern when you have TO in your locker room. Also, there is concern at the third receiver spot. Patrick Crayton looked tough at times last season. However, after him, there is a huge drop off in production. If the Cowboys sustain injuries to their 30 plus starting wide receivers, the offense could severely suffer.
Prediction: This may be the toughest division to pick this year. Three of the teams are coming off playoff berths, but everyone has big questions. The biggest key for Dallas will be the development of Tony Romo. While he looked like a Peyton Manning clone against Tampa last year, he had some average performances as well. Sometimes quarterbacks take a step back after the league has a chance to watch film on a player. If he plays at a Pro Bowl level, the Cowboys should have a great chance to not only win the division, but make a solid playoff run. If he plays poorly, the Cowboys don't have a shot to do much of anything. Outside of the division, the schedule might be tough, but most of the tough games are at home. There worst road game is at Chicago. They have home games against New England and New York Jets. The Rams, Packers, and Panthers offer some competition against 8-8 teams from a year ago.
Record: 10-6, NFC East Division Title, NFC #3 seed
Philadelphia Eagles
Strengths: Andy Reid probably did his best coaching job last season. The Eagles had a very explosive offense last season. They were 6th in points per game, and 2nd in total yards. All this was accomplished despite losing Donovan McNabb in the middle of the season. They were able to survive that injury, in part because of Jeff Garcia, and in part because Brian Westbrook is one of the most versatile running backs in the game. The pass defense was, as usual, in the top 10 as well last year. The acquisitions of Takeo Spikes and Kevin Curtis should help on both sides of the ball.
Weaknesses: The Eagles enter the season with a number of question marks. 1) Will Donovan McNabb be healthy to start the season? He is coming off a serious ACL injury. The goal is for him to be ready for the third preseason game. However, if he is slow to come back or gets hurt in the middle of the season, as he has the last two seasons, the Eagles could be in trouble. Feeley and Kolb do not have the track record of a Jeff Garcia in the event McNabb misses significant time. 2) Will a healthy Jevon Kearse and the addition of Takeo Spikes be enough to improve a 26th ranked rush defense, and 3) How will the Eagles replace Donte' Stallworth. His production dropped after McNabb got hurt, because Garcia was not a strong at throwing the deep ball. However, he was a nice addition to the team and will be missed by McNabb. Their draft appears to be fairly average this year, and even with the addition of Curtis, they failed to add any proven playmakers to the offense.
Prediction: As long as McNabb is ready for the season opener and is able to start at least 14 games this season, the Eagles should be in contention for the playoffs and the division this year. Without him, they don't look to have a realistic shot of making the playoffs. However, even if he is able to stay healthy, the Eagles are not as strong as the teams from a few years ago. They need to stop the run better this year and they need someone to step up on offense to take the pressure off of McNabb and Westbrook. Unlike the Cowboys, they play both the Jets and Patriots on the road. They also get the Seahawks and Saints, instead of the Panthers and Rams. That alone might be enough to give this division to the Cowboys. Andy Reid is a great coach and will get the most out of this team. However, it is very hard to pick a record for this team without knowing how McNabb will come back from that injury. For now, I am predicting the Eagles will take a step back this season.
Record: 8-8, 2nd NFC East, No Playoffs.
Washington Redskins
Strengths: The strength of the Redskins is their running game. Betts was a 1,000 yard rusher last season. Portis, when healthy is a 1,000 yard rusher. The Redskins should be able to punish teams on the ground. While Santana Moss had an off year last season, part of the problem was the musical chairs at quarterback. Cooley is also a nice target at tight end.
Weaknesses: When you have the 6th pick in the draft, there are plenty of them. The biggest weakness by far was the defense. 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass, 31st in total yards, and 27th in points allowed. The Redskins had a bend and break defense. LaRon Landry should be a big help in the secondary. He is a four year college starter who should be able to step in and contribute immediately. Outside of that pick, the Redskins got very little immediate help in the draft. If Springs can stay healthy and Landry plays well, the Redskins should be much better against the pass. However, I still have doubts about their ability to stop the run. On offense, the passing game as a whole must improve. Jason Campbell had a nice end to the season. He showed flashes of being a good starting quarterback, particularly against the Giants in the season finale. However, for the Redskins to be competitive, he needs to take the next step in his development. That means having higher than 53.1% completion percentage and taking care of the ball. While Moss and Cooley are quality targets, Lloyd and Randle El need to contribute more.
Prediction: While this team is only a year removed from the playoffs, I don't see them returning to the playoffs this season. The Eagles and Cowboys are tough teams, and have fewer issues than the Redskins do on defense. While the Eagles run defense was nothing to celebrate, it should be better and a veteran quarterback gives more hope for a good season. With Jones, M. Barber, and Westbrook in this division, the Redskins have to stop the run. The schedule is a mix of difficult and easy. The Redskins travel to the Patriots and Jets. The Cardinals and Bucs should be easier than what the Eagles and Cowboys face. While a healthy Portis mixed with Betts and Moss may be exciting at times, it's hard to run the ball a lot if the defense is giving up a lot of points. I think playing around .500 football is a realistic expectation.
Record: 7-9, 3rd Place NFC East, No Playoffs
New York Giants
Strengths: The strength of this team is its skill players. Even with the retirement of Tiki Barber, the Giants have some good weapons. Burress had 10 touchdown grabs last season, Shockey is a very solid tight end, and Jacobs rushed for 9 touchdowns last season. Droughns is a nice addition to the team, although he is the same type of player as Jacobs, in that he is a power runner. Eli Manning has shown signs that he can be a Pro Bowl level quarterback, but has been way too inconsistent in his play.
Weaknesses: Where do I begin? The biggest problem that the Giants had last season was chemistry. Eli Manning never seemed to be on the same page with his team. Coach Coughlin was never able to get control of the team. It was very surprising that Coughlin survived the offseason. The Giants have to replace Barber, who had 2107 total yards, 5 touchdowns, and was the leader of their offense. Jacobs looks up to the task, but until he plays a full season, who knows? Droughns adds a quality second option. Next, Eli Manning has to make the jump this season. The Giants are 0-2 in the playoffs under Manning. He is hot one week and cold the next. He completed 57.7% of his passes and had 18 interceptions last season. He must become smarter in his decision making, continue to throw touchdowns, and make good decisions under pressure. Finally, they also have to find a way to stop people. The Strahan injury contributed to that problem. However, a defense can not count on one player so much that his injury causes them to finish 24th in points per game and 25th in yards allowed.
Prediction: The hardest thing to figure out about this team is whether they are the team that started 6-2, or the team that finished 2-6. I like their draft. Ross and Smith should help right away. Droughns was an acceptable addition to make sure that Jacobs doesn't have to shoulder the entire load of replacing Tiki Barber. The noteworthy part of the schedule has the Patriots, Jets, and Packers at home, with the Bears and Falcons on the road. In the end, I think that Tiki Barber is going to be a too huge of a void to fill. With all the talent on offense, it was still evident from the Redskins game to close the season that he was the go to guy in the offense. If they struggle against the Eagles, Jets, Falcons, and 49ers at the beginning part of the season, it could be over quickly. I don't think Coughlin will be able to keep control of the team if they hit a rough patch early in the season. Finally, I don't think the defense is good enough to compensate for Manning making a high number of mistakes. If he doesn't value the ball this year, it could be a long season. I think predictions for this team will greatly differ between people, depedning on how highly that person values Eli Manning. Despite making the playoffs, the Giants were still an 8-8 team last year. With all these issues, and being in a competitive division, I don't find it unrealistic in the least to see them take a step back.
Record: 6-10, Last Place NFC East, No Playoffs
I hope you enjoyed reading the predictions. I will try to post the NFC South sometime next week.
In one of my last blogs, I took a lot of heat for picking (3) Miami Hurricane players (Portis, Shockey, Morgan) as the most overrated players at their position. Just to set the record straight, I have nothing against the Miami Hurricanes. I like the Packers, yet railed on one of my own guys as overrated. I am not a Patriots fans and I picked two of their guys as underrated. The problem is that Miami has produced so many great players and first round picks over the last 20 years. They enter the pros with expectations of being a future Hall of Famer. It was inevitable that I would pick some Miami Hurricane players as overrated. Do you think it is any accident that all of my overrated players were high first round picks, and that my underrated players were picked in later rounds? A lot of how you are perceived in the league is correlated with where you went to school and where you were drafted. Teams expect more out of the first round than the seventh round.
But as I digress, the thing that I found the most interesting is how many people took offense to me saying that Donovan McNabb was the most overrated quarterback in the league. I found it so interesting; I thought I would devote an entire article to the topic.
I want to clear the air with a couple of items before I give my take. First, this position has nothing to do with me being a Packer Fan. Please don't comment on my post that Brett Favre is past his prime, that he is overrated. I don't need to rip on Donovan McNabb to make Brett Favre look like a better football player. Brett Favre career wise and Donovan McNabb career wise don't even compare. To compare Brett Favre as a 38 year old to Donovan McNabb as a 31 year old doesn't make a lot of sense either. Second, while I do not root for the Eagles, they have one of the best run organizations in football, a fantastic head coach, and several great football players. Remember, I did select Brian Westbrook as the most underrated running back in the NFL.
I have never understood why people rate Donovan McNabb as highly as they do. I think the main reason is that he is a likeable guy. In his interviews he comes off as a humble, down to earth person. He is highly involved in the community. He is never in trouble with the law. He doesn’t own his own dog fighting facility. In the whole TO saga, Donovan McNabb came across as the sane person capable of taking the higher road. TO looked like a freak show.
The best thing you can say about anyone is that they are not only a stand up person, but a winner. I don't dispute that. Donovan McNabb is clearly both. From 2001 to 2004 he was in the NFC Championship game every year. In 2004, he broke through and went to the Super Bowl. From 2000 to 2004 he made to Pro Bowl every year. In that time span the Eagles averaged winning just fewer than 12 games a year.
The problem is that Trent Dilfer is a winner as well. Being a great quarterback and winning football games do not necessarily correlate. Rex Grossman won the most games in the NFC this past season. I don't think anyone is nominating him for the best quarterback in the NFC. Now I am not dragging Donovan McNabb down to these quarterback’s levels. He is clearly better than that. I'm just saying that I'm not anointing Donovan McNabb as an elite quarterback, simply because the Eagles have won a lot of games over the course of his career.
Evaluating a quarterback is probably the toughest thing in sports to do. The reason is that it isn't like baseball, which is very statistic driven. You have to look at all these intangibles. For instance, Troy Aikam played in 165 career games, threw for 165 touchdowns and almost 33,000 yards. Jeff George in 133 career games threw for 154 touchdowns and 27,000 yards. Jeff George has a career quarterback rating of 80.4. Troy Aikam has a career rating of 81.6. If you look just at the statistics, they are comparable players. Anyone that watched them play knows that Troy Aikman is a first ballot Hall of Famer, a champion, part of the glue of the Dallas dynasty; while Jeff George was a locker room nightmare that played for 7 teams. He will only get to Canton if he pays for the price of admission like the rest of us.
Here is my problem with rating Donovan McNabb so highly. Most of the quarterbacks that are rated as all time greats that do not have knockout statistics, instead, have multiple Super Bowls or Championships. Troy Aikman, Tom Brady, Bob Griese, and Bart Starr are examples that come to mind. It is understood they had the ability to put up bigger numbers, but by playing within the scheme they played in; they were able to accomplish greater team success. Most of the quarterbacks that have 1 ring or fewer as a starter, i.e. Brett Favre, Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Steve Young have knockout statistics. People that tend to value team success higher will rank that first group higher. People that value the statistics tend to rank the other group higher. Neither method is wrong. It’s like looking at a glass half empty or half full.
My problem is that Donovan McNabb has neither. He has played in one Super Bowl. He does not have a ring. While they were a very good team from 2000 to 2004, they were never able to get over the hump. Some will argue that was because they never game him a great wide receiver. Some will argue that was because they never had a dominant runner. The problem is that you can make excuses for everyone that you like, and discount everyone that you don't like. This is the old keep the teams the same, but put Joe Montana on the Eagles and Donovan McNabb on the 49ers and see what would have happened argument. When you do this, every great player was really terrible, and every terrible player should have been great. In the end, all you can go with is what happened on the field.
Everyone that is a Donovan McNabb supporter makes the same argument. Look at what he did with TO in 2004. If he would have had that caliber receiver his entire career, think of what he would have done. The fact of the matter is that having a great wide receiver is far less important than having a good defense and a good running game. Putting up great passing numbers is a product of being on the field and playing in a game that is
