This is my sixth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here is my planned schedule. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest rivalries in the NFL. The Bears, Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises and each have a storied history. The Minnesota Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but have assimilated well into the division’s rivalries. This year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall of Fame QB in Green Bay will not be taking the field. The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre became their quarterback. The Packers won 7 divisional titles in his tenure with Green Bay and won over 60% of their divisional games. Which team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very interesting development.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC North.

1) Minnesota Vikings

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 365(15th)

Points Allowed: 311 (12th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Minnesota Vikings were the best in the league at running the football and they were the best in the league at stopping the run.

Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous season. He rushed for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns despite only starting 9 games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Included in that mammoth total was a 296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for rushing yards in a single game. He also had a 224- yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be having more consistency and doing better with 8 men in the box. In his final 4 games he was held to 54 carries and a 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards per carry. Part of that was his coming back from injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more than they did in the first half of the season.

Chester Taylor also had a fine season. He rushed for 844 yards and 7 touchdowns. Minnesota and Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.

While Peterson and Taylor are good, the line is one of the best in the business. McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line and Birk is a tremendous center. It is imperative that McKinnie not be suspended for his disorderly conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami courtroom.

On defense the Vikings may have the best front 4 in football. Pat and Kevin Williams are two mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely well. New to the mix is Jared Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they sorely missed last season. That should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd ranked pass defense.

On special teams Ryan Longwell is a steady and reliable kicker. It remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return man.

Weaknesses: For as good as the Vikings were running the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad passing the ball and stopping the pass.

Let’s start with the pass defense. It was ranked 32nd last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to help at the safety spot. Finally they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of play and Allen give them the pass rush they have lacked the pass defense should be much improved in 2008. They forced a lot of turnovers in 2007. Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.

That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing touchdowns. They got 3rd receiver type production out of their number one and number two receivers. Darrell Bevell said this about the Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings 3rd year QB, “"He's been outstanding this offseason," Bevell said. "He's been in here watching, studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."

Jackson is the key to the 2008 season for the Vikings and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their pass game. Jackson progressed well in year 2 and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs and possibly advance to a Super Bowl they need him to progress even more.

Even if Jackson is improving, the Vikings still have a weak receiving core. Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven number one receiver even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to develop. Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson are journeymen players. The Vikings have a lot of #2 and #3 receivers, but nobody that screams dominant number one guy. Berrian and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.

Prediction: I think the Vikings are in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in Peterson. The defensive line is probably the best in the NFL. They have a great offensive line. All the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.

The question mark is the quarterback and the passing game. If Jackson were a proven commodity I would say the Vikings would be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is they were 1st in rush offense and defense a year ago and that got them 8-8. The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far as he takes them.

The schedule looks tougher than it really is. The Vikings caught a number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that record. They drew no cold weather sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally struggle with. They face the easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16 before closing with the NY Giants at home. That bodes well for them taking control of the division with a late season surge.

I look for the Vikings to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004. I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their franchise history and their first divisional title since their NFC Central crown back in 2000.

Minnesota Vikings’ Record: 11-5 – NFC North Divisional Champion; NFC #2 Seed

2) Green Bay Packers

07 Record: 13-3

Points Scored: 435 (4th)

Points Allowed: 291 (6th)

Playoff Result: Lost NFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Packers had an unbelievably balanced team in 2007. They finished 4th in points scored and 6th in points allowed. Favre had an impressive season, finishing 2nd in the MVP race. Grant had the most yards of any back in the NFL not named Tomlinson in the second half of the regular season. Mason Cosby finished 2nd in the Pro Bowl voting at kicker. Other than at Chicago, Ryan did a decent job of punting. Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in that regard.

There were few changes that needed to be made and people assumed #4 would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008 and now one player leaving has created a lot of questions. It is hard to judge the Packers 2008 chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front 7 and the corners.

The Packers have an extremely deep defensive line. Kampan is a great pass rusher that supports the run well. Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell and others provide good depth.

The linebackers support the run well, but they struggle to cover the pass and in particular the tight end. That should improve simply by not facing Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey this season. Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule and they need to improve in that area. Barnett is always solid and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.

The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best corner duo in the NFL. They are extremely physical. While they draw a lot of interference calls they make up for it with picks, stopping 3rd downs, and wearing down receivers. However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up and down first year starting, but ended up being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December and was lights out in the playoffs. He needs to play like he did at the end of the year. The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and dime packages. They need players to step up there.

All in all this is a very young defensive unit other than the corners. This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.

Weaknesses: It’s been a long time since we said the offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Pack finds themselves in 2008. I don’t want to come across as having the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year and I like a lot of things the Packers have going on offense. But I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the Packers did. To assume a 4th year QB that has yet to start a NFL game can just step in and keep the ball rolling is not realistic. It is not fair to Aaron Rodgers.

With regards to Rodgers, he may very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packer fan I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to say he is definitely going to succeed. Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing. I like how he has progressed in making reads and his command of the offense since his rookie year. That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability. The injuries have been freakish in nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all time most durable starting quarterback’s backup. Brian Braum is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

The receivers are solid and the strength of the offense. They are great athletes and ranked number one in yards after the catch. Driver is a veteran presence, Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and Jones, Martin, and Nelson all provide good depth. Lee had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help Rodgers make the transition.

Remember that the yards after the catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of #4’s ability to throw the deep ball. Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect Rodger’s deep ball. I expect those guys to be solid and put up good numbers, but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were in 2007.

The offensive line is interesting. The tackles are good, but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed and became a strength of the team. Part of the reason that the Packers could go so many 4 and 5 wide receiver sets is because of #4’s command of the offense and his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. The Packers surrendered only 19 sacks, tied for 3rd in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more 4 and 5 receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at receiver.

Finally, we get to the running back. Who is the real Ryan Grant? Is he the back that had 201 yards and 3 touchdowns against Seattle or the one that had 29 yards and 0 touchdowns against the Giants? 1 would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. 10 games are not enough to anoint a guy a star running back. The Packers are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers and he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see from defenses. He is perfect for that zone-blocking scheme and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and 7-9 touchdowns.

Prediction: I find it entertaining how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality that the Packers have a great young team and Rodgers is just ready to step in based on a good half against Dallas.

Since 1992 the Packers have finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006. In 2007 the Packers finished 2nd in passing yards, 4th in points scored, 6th in touchdown passes, and 11th in interceptions thrown.

This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Montana and his 16 touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring from the Dolphins in 1999. Those guys are All Time Greats, but were very average at the end of their career. Even if you take out the fact the Packers are losing an All-Time Great player and leader, they are still losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important position.

There are still a lot of good players on the team. I don’t expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show they can still win and will be motivated to do well without #4. There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.

Had Favre come back, I would have thought 10-6 or 11-5 would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule. The Packers have a lot of tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at New Orleans, Indy, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. I think you are going to see games where they amaze and games where they really struggle. A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is a realistic expectation. They should be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009 if their young players continue to grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions at the offensive tackles and cornerback.

Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8 – NFC North 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Detroit Lions

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 346 (16th)

Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.543) (10th in NFL)

Strengths: The Lions had a great passing attack under passing guru Mike Martz. He is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in the division and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald give him a lot of weapons. Roy Williams is a solid target and Calvin Johnson is a freak and should have a much better 2nd year now that he has experience and is healthy. The Lions should be able to throw the ball and put points up on the board. Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked 2nd in 2006 and 1st in 2007 in that regard. He also has to take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.

This was a team that started the 2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7. When they were winning their passing offense was not the only thing carrying them. They were good at forcing turnovers early in the season. The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL, which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished 9th in sacks with 37. That made up for their 31st ranked pass defense. Fernando Bryant is no longer with the team. Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that regard.

Shaun Rodgers is gone from the defensive line. It will be interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd in the NFL with him. Corry Redding and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but never really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks there wasn’t much this defense did right in 2007.

Jason Hanson is still the kicker and a mainstay in Detroit. He has been with the Lions since 1992 and is considered one of the more reliable kickers in the NFL.

Weaknesses: This team really lacked a running game. They ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that. Keep in mind that he coached Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson in St Louis. While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful backs in his system. Part of the Lions inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor offensive line, and defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.

The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones and TJ Duckett and retained Tatum Bell. They drafted Kevin Smith in the 3rd round. They are also instituting a zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL. The Lions still figure to be weak running the ball in 2008. Zone blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good nor does it make bad running backs great. I watched Green Bay make that transition and it took over a year to see results. Bell had good games in a zone-blocking scheme in Denver. He needs to step up his production in 2008. It will be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split time.

The offensive line needs to improve on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007. That is one reason why the Lions throw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people down field. When you finish last in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and give up the 3rd most sacks there aren’t many positives to look at on the offensive line. That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus in the first round. He will be asked to step in immediately.

On defense they have to hope the people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their front 7 to stop the run and create pressure. Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in Denver. Until the Lions improve on stopping the run it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out of their secondary.

Prediction: The Lions were a team that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that team would crash in the second half of the season and they did just that. Matt Millen has proven time and time again that he cannot draft well and that he is unable to put his coaches in a position to succeed. There are good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.

The Lions have a good passing offense and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take pressure of that offense. Their receivers will cause problems for team and I expect a decent offensive showing from the Lions.

What I also expect is they will struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to give them fits with their defense. Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in division games. What it amounts to is Kitna predicting 10 wins and reality delivering another 6 or 7 win season and another year of missing the playoffs.

Detroit Lions’ Record: 6-10 – NFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Chicago Bears

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 348 (16th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Bears have always had offensive issues. What they traditionally relied on was a very strong defense. In 2005 they finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. In their 2006 Super Bowl season they finished 3rd and 5th in those areas. They have been one of the best teams at forcing turnovers. That has allowed the less than stellar offense to work with a short field and control the clock with the run.

That never panned out last season. The Bears offense was still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher was hurt and did not play up to his standards. Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.

The defensive line is still strong. Tommy Harris is a fantastic defensive tackle. Alex Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.

The linebackers are still great too. Urlacher is one of the best in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy; as he did sign the long-term deal he had been looking for the last couple seasons. He is a 3-time Pro Bowler.

In the secondary Brown, Tillman, Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning and McBride give the Bears a number of people for coverage and making big plays. They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that they will be able to force turnovers, which is a must for a Cover 2 team. That will help offense produce enough in short field situations to give the Bears defense leads and rest. If that happens there is still enough defensive talent to carry this team to the playoffs.

Last, but certainly not least are the special teams. Devin Hester. He is the Bears best weapon at this point. After just 2 seasons he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the NFL. He makes a lot of big plays in the return game and as a wide receiver. The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special teams specialist. Finally, Robbie Gould is a solid kicker. The Bears probably have the best special teams in the NFL.

Weaknesses: The problem is there just isn’t a lot of talent on offense. As bad as it was last year it is worse in 2008. That starts with the quarterbacks. Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown they are capable of leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their 06 Super Bowl run. They need one of them to emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will. The Bears did nothing to sign a quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.

Then we get to receiver. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis. None of those guys are acceptable #3 receivers on average passing teams at this point. It is either possession receivers or home run hitters. There is no receiver that is a complete package in the group. The fact that two of them must start is not good news for the passing game. Clark and Olson are quality tight ends and the best targets this team has in the passing game.

Then there is the offensive line. Fred Miller was released this summer at tackle. They hope Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster at 29. The line is starting to get old and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those positions. Fred Miller was not the only thing holding that line back.

Finally, there is the running back spot. Benson has been waived after 2 arrests in 5 weeks. Adrian Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out below average backfield. As a whole, the Bears offense is among the most unproven in the NFL. There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team strength. It should finish among the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.

Prediction: I know Bears fans will point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average offense. That they went 11-5 and won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense in 2005. The feeling in Chicago is that defense wins championships and the Bears have the defense.

I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have started to get older. Urlacher is starting to have health issues and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two this defense becomes average very quickly. Last season the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team and they really struggled as a team to consistently win. The Bears first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17 after they had been eliminated from playoff contention.

This year the offense is even worse. Benson, Berrian, and Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears have. Griese is no longer around if Grossman struggles. There are a lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they were in 2005 and 2006.

The Bears get a very tough schedule. The Colts, Jags, and Titans all have tremendous defenses. The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are traditionally tough on defense. That is half their schedule that they may not score more than 10-14 points per game against. The defense will keep the Bears in those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many victories.

The Bears window has closed in my opinion and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some younger pieces on defense. Only time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.

Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11 – NFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

I hope everyone that watched the game last night enjoyed watching it.  I’m sure Cowboys fans were a lot happier than the Packer Nation after the game.  The game proved to be a very exciting, yet very strange contest.  Here are ten impressions I had of the game.

1) The Packers offensive game plan was awful – I think the Packers got caught up in trying to play to the Cowboys weakness rather than playing to their strength.  I heard a lot of people saying that the Favre went back to chucking it down field and not playing to the team’s strengths.  Enough.  I was not at the team meetings this week, but I find it difficult to imagine that the Packers talked about throwing the ball short all week and Favre came into the game and suddenly changed the game plan on his own.  The Packers were clearly making a commitment to going downfield.   I think this decision got the Packers away from their offensive strength; the short passes to the WR and really put them behind early in the game.  That leads to #2:

2) The Favre injury – I’m as big of a Favre fan as anyone.  He played awful last night.  He went long to Driver in double coverage when Jennings was open underneath.  He threw a pass into double coverage.  It was probably his worst first half in a game where the Packers needed him on his A game. Once he was injured, he was not able to redeem himself.  The injury actually helped the Packers, because they had to change the offensive game plan with Rodgers in there and the result was playing to their strength, the short passes.  Dallas did not do well on those, and the result was a 27-10 lead that shrank to 27-24.  That has to be a positive for Green Bay in a rematch.  They know they can move the ball using their strength, which they should have known in the first place.

3) Don’t put Rodgers in Canton yet – The one thing that came out of this was the experts saying that this game proved the Packers could win without Favre should his injury cause him to miss time in 10 days.  Has anyone heard of Rob Johnson?  22-28 or whatever he was for Jacksonville filling in for Mark Brunell.  This caused Buffalo to throw 25 million at him where he did nothing.  Rodgers did what he was supposed to.  He prepared himself mentally to be ready on a moment’s notice and he came in and excecuted the offense.  There is a difference between coming into a game that Dallas did not expect him to play in and having Dallas watch a seasons worth of film and come in with a game plan to neutralize him.  Trust me, Dallas wasn’t preparing for Aaron Rodgers to play.  They probably didn’t even know who he was until last night.  That game gives me some confidence in Rodgers for the future, not this season.  If Favre was forced to miss time, I would feel okay about Oakland.  The Packers still need Favre if they want to go to the Super Bowl.  One good half by Rodgers doesn’t change that. 

4) Dallas was awesome on 3rd down – This was the downfall of the Packers and the reason Dallas was so successful.  Dallas was 5-12 on third down, but the biggest play of the game was the 3rd and 19 deep in their own territory to start the second half.  Romo completed the pass to Crayton for 35 yards and really helped change the tone of that game.   If Green Bay makes that stop, they probably would have gotten the ball by midfield with a chance to put points on the board immediately. 

5) Dallas stopped the pass rush – One of the concerns was how Dallas would do protecting Romo.  Green Bay had 0 sacks and really didn’t put any pressure on Romo.  That was huge as Romo had 309 yards and 4 touchdowns as a result.  His only pick was the result of a TO juggling act in the endzone. 

6) Owens got the better of the Harris matchup – Owens had 143 yards receiving in the 2nd quarter.  Even though he finished with only 13 yards in the second half, the Packers had to adjust the coverage and that left a lot of other players open.  Crayton benefited from that with 2 touchdowns in the redzone, as did Fassano on his touchdown catch. 

7) Injuries were a factor, but not THE factor – I think injuries were a factor on both sides.  You can’t tell me that Woodson, KGB, and a healthy Tauscher would not have made a difference.  Similarly, you can’t tell me that Rodgers would have had as good o####ame if the Cowboys secondary hadn’t gotten dinged up.  It will be interesting to see how healthy these teams get and what differences that would make in a potential rematch.

8) Don’t Complain about the Officiating – I heard some Packer fans complaining about the pass interference call in the second half and non interception call in the first half.   Stop being a poor loser.  While those calls could have gone the other way the Packers did too many bad things to win that game.  They lost the turnover battle 2-0.  9 penalties for 142 yards are unacceptable.  Even if you remove the pass interference, it was still awful.  Bigby thought the facemask grab was a legal maneuver.  Cut him, you can’t have someone that is that mentally incompetent on your roster.  There were plenty of opportunities to win that game and officiating was not the reason Dallas won.  Dallas was the better team and deserved to win the game.

9) Both teams should have been happy about the running game – I think both teams were encourage with their ground assault.  If the Packers can get 94 yards and 2 touchdowns from Grant in the rematch, I think they would be happy with that.  On the Cowboys end, even though they didn’t get the touchdowns in the running game, they were able to run the clock out in the 4th quarter, deplete the Packers timeouts, and kick the field goal that sealed the game. 

10) Where does each team go from here – I think both teams can take away some positives.  If you are the Cowboys you jumped to a 27-10 lead against the Packers while Favre was part of the game.  If they take care of business, they will be guaranteed of hosting a rematch.  Romo played great on a big stage.  The Packers defense looked pretty average on the first 5 possessions of the game.  If you are the Packers you couldn’t have started the game worse and yet were only down 27-24 at the end of the 3rd quarter.  The Packers allowed Owens only 13 yards in the 2nd half and seemed to figure out some things, just a little too late.  This will be a growing experience for a young team and they will only get better from this.  I think people perceive this team to be battled tested, because their QB is battled tested.  For a team lean on playoff experience, this was a way to play an exhibition playoff game so to speak.  Cowboys will have a lot of confidence in the rematch.  Packers have to feel that if they can improve on a few things they can go down there and win a rematch.  It will be interesting to see if these teams meet again and how each team makes adjustments to things that hurt them.  Something to keep in mind.  In 2004, the Patriots went to Pittsburgh and were steamrolled 34-20.  In the AFC Championship rematch, which was also at Pittsburgh, the Patriots won 41-27.  Same thing with 1990.  The New York Giants lost 7-3 in San Francisco with Phil Simms and went back to win the rematch 15-13 with backup QB Jeff Hostetler.  However the Giants and Patriots had a core that had one Super Bowls.  The Packers don’t have that.  There are a lot of things that could change in the next 2 months.  While this victory goes to Dallas and will make them the favorite to represent the NFC and rightfully so; don’t write off the Green and Gold yet.     

In today’s Sports Culture we are quick to throw around titles like Great, Greatest, and Best.  Ohio State vs. Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl produced the Greatest Championship Game of all time.  That was until 2006 when Texas beat USC in the Rose Bowl.  Maybe it was 2007 when Boise St upset Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.  Miami vs. Ohio St went from the Greatest Game ever to the second best Fiesta Bowl in a matter of 4 years.

I am going to throw around the term greatest in this respect.  The 2007 NFL Regular Season has had the most entertaining big game matchups in the history of the league.  Consider the following:

1) October 14, 2007, New England (5-0) at Dallas (5-0) – This game had it all.  First (5-0) team vs. (5-0) team.  The last undefeated team in the NFC vs. the best-undefeated team in the AFC.  Tony Romo vs. Tom Brady.  Randy Moss vs. TO.  America’s Team vs. Public Enemy #1.  I still think this game is unfairly labeled as a blowout.  Part of the reason is because New England was ahead 14-0 in that game after the first quarter and part of the reason was the final score.  Dallas led 24-21 in the 3rd quarter.  The score was 31-24 New England after three quarters.  The 4th quarter got away from Dallas, but it was a competitive game until the final minutes. 

2) November 4, 2007, New England (8-0) at Indianapolis (7-0) – This was billed as the best regular season matchup in the history of the NFL.  The latest that two undefeated teams squared off in a regular season game.  Three of the last four Super Bowl Champions were on display.  It was a rematch of the 2006 AFC Championship Game.  Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady.  Some felt the game didn’t live up to the billing because the score was only 24-20.  When you consider the Patriots trailed 20-10 in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 24-20 the game was a classic contest. 

3)  November 29, 2007, Green Bay (10-1) at Dallas (10-1) – Okay, it isn’t (8-0) vs. (7-0).  But it sure is good.  The last time two (10-1) teams or better met was 1990 when the (10-1) New York Giants traveled to (10-1) San Francisco.  The time before that was back in 1969 when the (11-0) Rams lost to the (10-1) Vikings in Los Angeles.

Any of the three contests are worthy of highlighting season.  We are going to have had them all within two months of each other.  It isn’t so much that there are so many good playoff teams playing in the 2007 season; we have seen that on a number of occasions.  1991 saw the #5 seeded Dallas Cowboys make the playoffs at 11-5.  1998 saw the four-conference finalist have a 55-9 record.  14-2 Atlanta played on the road in the NFC Championship game.  2001 saw the 49ers open up a playoff game in Green Bay with a 12-4 record as the 5th seed.   2004 saw the four-conference finalist combine for a 53-11 record with 14-2 New England playing on the road in the AFC Championship Game. 

However, most seasons you don’t have this many great matchups this late in the season.  Rarely will you have so many instances where the heavy weights square off against one another.  Most weeks (8-3) Jacksonville at (9-2) Indy is drawing national headlines.  It’s the second best game this week.  In a couple weeks we have Pittsburgh at New England in what will be our 4th premier non-divisional matchup of the season.  It will probably be New England’s only test to go undefeated prior to the season finale against the Giants.  It has truly been a historic season in terms of great regular season matchups. 

Dallas and Green Bay have quite a bit of history in their own rite.  Their first meeting was in Dallas’s expansion season back in 1960.  The Packers would beat the Cowboys 41-7 in Green Bay.  Green Bay was beginning the Lombardi era.  They would suffer his only playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles later that season.  1961 would mark the first of 5 NFL Championships and 2 Super Bowls victories. 

The Cowboys and Tom Landry would finish that 1960 season 0-11-1.  Neither appeared to be headed for greatness.  By 1966 Dallas was playing Green Bay in the title game.  They would lose the 1966 Championship Game in Dallas 34-27.  They would lose the Ice Bowl in 1967 by the score of 21-17.  Dallas would win their first Super Bowl in the 1971 season.  Landy would coach the Cowboys until the 1988 season.

The two franchises went in different directions after the Lombardi era.  The Packers would win one playoff game in the 1981 strike season.  It would mark their only playoff victory from 1968 season through the 1992 season.  Dallas would go on to win two Super Bowl under Landry and lose three others.  Two of those losses were to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Dallas would have a winning record every year from 1966 to 1986.  Jerry Jones would buy the Cowboys and hire Jimmy Johnson to coach the Cowboys in 1989.

This is when the Packers and Cowboys crossed paths again.  The Cowboys hiring of Jimmy Johnson and trade of Herschel Walker to the Vikings led to a rebirth of the Cowboys.  They would win 3 Super Bowls in 4 years from 1992-1995.  Meanwhile, the Packers hired Ron Wolf in an attempt to turn around one of the worst run franchises in sports.  He hired Mike Holmgren, traded a first round pick for Brett Favre, and signed Reggie White in free agency.  The rest was history.  The Packers would appear in 3 straight NFC Championship games from 1995-1997, winning the 1996 Super Bowl and losing the 1997 Super Bowl.  They have had one losing season since 1992. 

From 1993-1996, Dallas and Green Bay played each other a total of seven times.   The game was played in Dallas all seven times.  Three times it was in the playoffs.  Dallas went 7-0.  The average score was 33.3 to 18.3.  Dallas won every game by more than a touchdown with five of the seven Dallas victories coming by double digits.  While Green Bay had the superior passing attack, Aikman managed the game more efficiently behind the best offensive line and running game in football.  Even in Green Bay’s magical 1996 Super Bowl season; Green Bay lost 21-6 in Dallas.  They would not get to face the Cowboys in the playoffs in 1996, due to Carolina upsetting Dallas in the second round. 

Green Bay would finally host Dallas in the 1997 season.  The Cowboys were going through an up and down season and went to Green Bay 6-5.  The Packers were in the midst of their second consecutive Super Bowl appearance.  The frustrations of the 1993-1996 seasons were taken out on Dallas that day 45-17.  The Cowboys would fail to win another game the rest of the season.  The Cowboys would get back to the playoffs in 1998 and 1999.  However, they have not won a playoff game since 1996.  The 1996 Panthers loss and the 1997 Packers loss are the two games that marked the end of 1990’s Cowboy dynasty.

This Thursday the Packers and Cowboys renew their rivalry as the two best teams in the NFC.  The Packers are in the final stages of the Brett Favre era.  Since going 8-20 from 2005 to week 13 of 2006, the Packers have gone 14-1.  The Cowboys after 4 up and down seasons under Bill Parcells are enjoying their best start in franchise history at 10-1.  Since inserting Tony Romo into the lineup against the Panthers last season the Cowboys are 16-5. 

This is a very tough game to pick.  Anyone that has followed my blog knows that I am a huge Packer fan.  If you think I’m going to pick against my 10-1 squad, you are crazy.  However, I don’t want to bore people with why I think the Packers will win and not pay any attention to the Cowboys, who deserve equal recognition for their remarkable start.  Week in and week out, I try not to be a Homer.  So here are the reasons each team will win:

Why the Cowboys will win:  The Cowboys have the second most dominant offense in the NFL behind the New England Patriots.  Their 32.5 ppg is on pace to score 520 points this season, which is more than the 2006 Chargers and comparable to the 522 points scored by the 2004 Colts.  If not for the Patriots historic start, the Cowboys would be the talk of the league.  The Cowboys play in the toughest division in the NFC.  Their only loss was to the Patriots, a team that they had a lead against in the third quarter after trailing 14-0 after the first quarter.  If you remove the Patriots game from the equation, the Cowboys have outscored their opposition 331-173, or by 15.8 ppg.  Tony Romo is second in the league with 29 touchdown passes.  The offense is 2nd in total yards, 5th in total passing yards, and 11th in total rushing yards.  This offense can beat people with Romo throwing to TO.  They can beat people throwing to Witten and Crayton.  They can beat people with Barber III and Jones.  While the Packers have the 5th ranked scoring defense, they haven’t faced an offense with this much balance.  Furthermore, the Packers are only 12th in yards allowed.  Their strength has been to hold people to field goals instead of touchdowns.  While that can work against one-dimensional teams like Minnesota and Detroit, it won’t be as easy with all the weapons the Cowboys bring to the table.  Also with Charles Woodson’s toe in question and numerous injuries on the defensive line, the Packers might be missing many key defensive weapons.  That is going to make this problem even worse.  On defense, the Cowboys are 4th against the run and their 16 picks rank 2nd in the NFL.  The Cowboys will be able to score points early and force the Packers into being an even more one-dimensional offense than they already are.  When that happens, Favre is going to have to force the ball and while he will make some big plays, he will also have some picks.  This will allow the Cowboys to control the tempo and win a high scoring contest.  

Why the Packers will win:  You keep hearing that Favre is 0-8 in Dallas for his career.  While Favre has struggled in Dallas in the past, he isn’t facing the 1990’s Cowboys defense.  There is no Sanders, Woodson, Smith, or Brown to cover his targets and make big plays.  Favre is the only player on either team that was in those games.  His lack of success in the past will have no bearing in this matchup.  The thing that experts keep pointing to when they pick Dallas is the advantage of Barber III and Jones vs. Ryan Grant.  However, Ryan Grant doesn’t have to tackle Barber III and Jones.  He merely has to make the opposing defense respect his ability to make plays on the ground.  The Vikings didn’t respect that ability.  The result was a 34-0 shutout and the first 100-yard rusher allowed by the Vikings defense.  Since the Denver game in week 7, Grant has three 100-yard games.  This has allowed the Packer offense to take off.  They have outscored Kansas City, Minnesota, Carolina, and Detroit 135-65 or by 17.5 ppg.  All 4 wins were by double digits.  The Pack was a little late joining the dominant teams, but they have now officially arrived.  The Cowboys aren’t playing the Packers that were winning games by field goals and hail marries earlier in the season.  They aren’t playing against Brandon Jackson.  They are playing a well-oiled machine that is finally able to move the ball mainly through the air, but on the ground as well.  The biggest advantage the Packers have is that their strength on offense is the Cowboys weakness on defense.  The Cowboys rank only 21st against the pass.  Don’t give me this, “Well they are ahead so much that teams are forced to pass to catch up.”  New England has a worse problem with that issue than the Cowboys and they rank 6th against the pass.  Eli Manning was able to pass for 310 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Cowboys in a 35-45 loss.  Tom Brady passed for 388 yards in a Patriot victory.  Jason Campbell passed for 348 yards in a game that went down to the wire.  All of those quarterbacks were able to gain yardage in meaningful action.  The Packers have the personal to put 4 or 5 wide receivers and move the ball at will against a weak Cowboy secondary.  They will be able to get favorable matchups against Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin.  If any of you watched the Patriot game; that bodes well for the Packers.  That air efficiency will hurt the Cowboys ability to put 7 in the box and Grant will be able to move the ball on the ground once the Packers have established their dominance through the air.  On defense, the Packers have the personal to slow down Tony Romo.  The Packers can put Al Harris on TO and not have to worry about devoting extra corners to help with the assignment.  Sure, TO is going to get his yards and scores, but it won’t be like the Washington game.  Furthermore, the Packers are as good as any team in the league at generating pressure with their front 4.  Witten will have to be used as a blocker as he was in the second Giants game.  Crayton and TO will not be able to expose a much stronger Packer secondary.  The Packer’s offense will stop Barber and Jones, because the Cowboys secondary will not allow the Cowboys to play with a lead.  The Packers will be able to get into the high 30s while keeping the Cowboys in the high 20s or low 30s. 

The game is huge.  If the Packers win the contest, they will have the inside track for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  They would get the highly probable rematch in Lambeau Field.  If the Cowboys win, they will be assured of playing a highly probable rematch in much warmer weather.  Favre will have to answer more questions about whether he can finally shake the Dallas demons.  You want to answer those questions in Week 13, not the NFC Championship Game. 

I think the one thing both fans need to understand is that both teams have matchup advantages that can destroy the other.  The key is that every game presents different scenarios, and depending on how those scenarios play out, those advantages may be neutralized by the way the game unfolds.  Also in games of this nature, it is often the no name type player (Larry Brown) that makes the biggest impact.  That is what makes this game so fascinating.  There are many different ways this game could play out. 

As a Packer fan, I obviously think the pro Packer scenario will play out.  My prediction is that the Packers will win 35-28.  However, I am not going to do a disservice to this great contest by calling the Cowboys the Cowgirls and talking a bunch of meaningless trash.  Both teams have had impressive starts and unless there is a tie, both teams are not going to win.  I also think that no matter which team wins, the winner will not be a guarantee to win the rematch.  Both teams are good enough to make adjustments and change the result the second time around. 

What I am thankful for this holiday season is that I do have the NFL Network and will be able to enjoy this historic contest with a group of close friends.  What are your thoughts on this upcoming showdown?  Are you rooting for America’s Team or Titletown USA?  Are you rooting for the next big QB or the First Ballot Hall of Famer trying to win one last title at the end of a record setting career?  Let me know your thoughts. 

As I continue my weekly post predicting the NFL, this week I focus on my favorite division, the NFC North.   The reason it is my favorite division is not because it is the best in football; in fact, it is far from it.  The reason I love this division is that the Green Bay Packers are my favorite team.   Without further delay, here is how I see the NFC North playing out this season. 

Chicago Bears

Strengths:  The strength of this team is the same as it has been since 2000.  Brian Urlacher and the defense.  Brian Urlacher is as fine of a defensive player as any in the league.  He is one of those players that everyone wishes they had on their team.  The main problem that caused the Bears defense to break down at the end of last season was injuries to Harris and Brown, legal problems for Tank Johnson, and Rex Grossman being Rex Grossman.  The Bears also had the best special teams in the league last season.  Hester returned 6 touchdowns for the Bears.  Gould was as dependable a kicker as any in the league.  The Bears also have a very strong head coach.  Lovie Smith was a winner in Tampa, came to St Louis and turned that defense around, and since taking over the Bears in 2004, has won 2 division titles and led the Bears to a Super Bowl.  Coaching in Chicago is a challenge unlike any other.  Every team is compared to the 85 Bears.  Every coach is compared to “Da Coach.”  While the Bears will never measure up to the 85 standard, this should still be a very good team.  Its defense gives them a chance to win every Sunday. 

Weaknesses:  The main weakness is the offense, and it starts at the quarterback position.  Rex Grossman was as up and down as they came last year.  His first 5 starts produced 4 games with a 98.0 rating or higher.  He had 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  Enter the next 11 weeks of the season.  A 36.8 rating against the Dolphins.  A 10.2 rating against the Cardinals.   A 1.3 rating against the Vikings.  And my personal favorite, a 0.0 rating against the Packers.   Sorry Bear fans, but I had to get that one in.  Grossman redeemed himself by having 2 solid outings against the Seahawks and the Saints.  Then came the Super Bowl, where he fumbled and bumbled his way to a dreadful performance.  If the Bears are going to stay atop the division, Rex Grossman has to play with more consistency.  When he plays within himself, he can be as good as any quarterback in the league.  When he throws off his back foot, scrambles around, and tries to play like a playground quarterback, he throws pick after pick.  Grossman also has a problem putting bad plays out of his head.  Once he makes his first mistake, it seems as if he tries to correct it with one big play, which adds to more mistakes.  Other question marks besides Grossman are the running game and wide receiver.  Thomas Jones was traded to the Jets.  That leaves Benson as the featured back.  He has to show that he is mature enough to be able to shoulder the responsibility.  The receiver position is not really anything to write home about.  Berrian looks to have promise.  Muhhamad has been a good possession receiver, but has not performed at a high enough level to warrant his big contract.  It will be interesting to see what Hester can do at wide receiver.  Rookie tight end Olson was a much-needed addition to the passing game.        

Prediction:   This division would be pretty easy to pick if the top two teams in the division had not had such an interesting offseason.  The Bears have had all kinds of problems.  They traded Thomas Jones to move up in the second round.  That pick landed them Dan Bazuin.  While he may end up being a terrific player, it is hard to see how he makes them a better offense this season, seeing he plays defensive end, a position the Bears are already loaded at.  While the Bears probably had to choose between Jones and Benson, leaving them with just Benson makes them unproven at running back.  The Lance Briggs and Tank Johnson sagas will be interesting to follow.  It will also be interesting to see how those issues, combined with the departure of Rivera affects the defense.  In the end, the Bears were a 13-3 team last season, with the Packers being the closest competition in the division at a distant 8-8.  The Bears were so ahead of the division they clinched in early December.  The Packers have done nothing of consequence to upgrade the roster, other than the NFL draft.   I think the Packers will be slightly improved, and the Bears will slip a bit.  If Grossman plays the entire season like he did the second half of last season, I could see the Packers having a shot at catching the Bears.  Also, history has not been kind to defending Super Bowl losers.  Ask the Raiders, Panthers, Eagles, and Seahawks how their follow up campaigns treated them.  The Seahawks were the only team to repeat as division champs and the only team to make the playoffs.  However, the Bears are very similar to the Seahawks in that they don’t play in the strongest of divisions.  Until the Bears prove they are not the class of this division, it is their division to lose. 

Record:  11-5, NFC North Division Title, NFC #2 seed     

Green Bay Packers

Strengths:   The strength of the Packers for the last 15 seasons has always been their offense, led by Brett Favre.   While he was not 1996 Brett Favre, he showed that he was still capable of leading this team to victory.  What is surprising is that in the 4 game winning streak to end the season, Favre had only 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.   The Packers defensive side of the ball made that streak happen.  This may be one of the first seasons in recent memory where the defense enters the season as the strength of the team.  The Packers ranked 12th in total yards and 13th in rushing defense.  Charles Woodson was a nice addition to the defense last season, with his 8 interceptions.   AJ Hawk had a great rookie campaign.  Aaron Kampman had a breakout year with 16 sacks.  While the defense allowed the 26th most points in the league, they closed the season on a 4 game winning steak, giving up just 10.5 points per contest.  Some of that was due to playing the Lions, Vikings, and Bears on New Years Eve Vacation.  Some of it had to do with moving Jenkins to defensive end on running downs, and having KGB in the game on passing situations.  That move seemed to sure up there run defense.  Some of it had to do with their young players growing up.  If draft picks Harrell and Rouse can have an immediate impact, along with the young players continuing to grow; the Packers have a chance to enter the top 10 defensive units in the NFL.     

Weaknesses:  The Packers at times looked like a team that was dazed and lost last season.  While they won their last 4 games, they were also 4-8 prior to that streak.  They lost games to the Bears, Jets, and Patriots 0-26, 10-38, and 0-35.  All of those games were at home.  If the Packers want to become a playoff team again, they have to play better at home against quality teams.  While the Packers were 9th in total yards and 8th in passing yards, they were only 23rd in rushing offense.  That explains a lot of the problems they experienced in the red zone, where they were the worst team in the NFL.  Teams could double team Driver and not respect the running game.  That is one reason why I do not believe the Packers will miss Ahman Green this season.  If this were the Ahman Green from 2003, the Packers would be in horrible shape.  Since 03, Ahman Green has not rushed for more than 1,200 yards or more than 7 touchdowns.  A lot of that has to do with injuries.  He also cost the Packers with his fumbling problems.  The problem isn’t so much that the Packers let Green leave, it’s that they haven’t replaced him with anyone who has proven himself in the NFL.  The other reason the Packers were so bad in the red zone last season was the tight end position.  It seems impossible that Bubba Franks had only 25 receptions and no touchdowns.  He has never been big with receptions and yards, but when he was going to the Pro Bowl, he was good for 7-9 touchdowns a year.  Since the Packers did not add a tight end this offseason, he needs to return to his 2002-2004 form.  Finally, Brett Favre has to make better decisions in the red zone.  The Packers were devastated by a fumble in the redzone against the Rams and an interception against the Bills.  Those plays came at critical times in the game, and might have been the difference in the Packers failing to beat out the Giants for the wildcard. 

Prediction:  Even though I was very disappointed in the offseason, I think the Packers should be able to improve from last seasons 8-8 record.  One thing that helps them is the Lions and Vikings being in there division.  The Vikings are woeful at quarterback, and the Lions have been woeful in general.  The Packers had one of the youngest teams in the league last season and seemed to put it together at the end of the season.  While they didn’t make a lot of additions in free agency, Ahman Green was really their only notable loss.  History shows that it is not necessarily a bad thing to be young at running back.  While the league doesn’t see a lot of rookie 1,000-yard receivers, the league is filled with rookie running backs that have topped the 1,000-yard plateau.  Terrell Davis, Curtis Martin, and Fred Taylor, and Cadillac Williams all rushed for 1,000 yards in their rookie seasons.  Look at lat season.  Even though Reggie Bush was the big name in last years draft, Joseph Addai had 1,000 yards as a late first round pick and Maurice Jones-Drew scored 15 touchdowns as a 2nd round rookie rusher.  If the Packers have found the right guy in the draft in Brandon Jackson, Morency and him should be able to carry this load.   It is nice that Jackson played in a zone blocking scheme for Nebraska.  The schedule maker was generous in giving the Packers the Eagles and Giants at the beginning of the season.  With McNabb’s knee injury and Tiki Barber’s retirement, it is probably a break to play those teams early in the season.  Even if McNabb starts that game, it will be his first regular season game back from major knee surgery.  The schedule maker was also brutal giving the Packers back-to-back games at Denver and Kansas City in weeks 8 & 9.  Those stadiums are as difficult to win in as any in the league.  Even though free agency was a non factor, this was the youngest team in the league last season.  The NFC is down and the Packers finished the season on such a strong note, that it isn’t that unrealistic to think that the Packers improve just one game.  If they can, they should be able to sneak into the playoffs.     

Record: 9-7, 2nd NFC North, NFC #6 seed 

Detroit Lions

Strengths:  The Lions are loaded at wide receiver this season.  Even though Charlie Rodgers and Mike Williams are a sour subject with Lions fans, drafting Calvin Johnson was the right move.  He was the best available player in this draft.  Combing him and Roy Williams should make the Lions a competitive passing team for years to come.  Also, remember that Mike Furrey had 98 grabs last season.  Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell have shown signs of being Pro Bowl running backs, but neither have been able to put together a consistent season.  It will be interesting to see if Bell follows the trend of Denver running backs that have lost their way after leaving Denver.  While Kitna is a journeyman quarterback, he has shown that when surrounded with the right talent, he is capable of putting up solid numbers.  Mike Martz is starting to get the right pieces in place to play the wide-open offensive style that he likes.  The Lions are probably the right quarterback away from becoming an offensive juggernaut.  While Stanton isn’t going to be that guy this year, he may very well get the chance in the near future if Kitna does not produce at a high level. 

Weaknesses:  The main problem with this has been the defense.  This unit was 30th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed.  While Calvin Johnson was the right pick, it didn’t help sure up this defensive unit.  Edwards, Bailey, and Simms are nice young players that have the Lions headed in the right direction.  However, the Lions lost Dre Bly at cornerback in the Tatum Bell deal.  Cory Redding should upgrade the middle of the defensive line, although like many teams this offseason, I believe the Lions overpaid for his services.  The secondary is going to be the interesting part.  Bryant, Wilson, Bullocks, and Kennedy would sound much more intimidating as a law firm, rather than an NFL secondary.   That projected starting unit brings exactly 2 picks from last season to the table, both by Kennedy as a Bronco.  If the Lions are able to generate a pass rush with their front seven, they may be able to compensate for the lack of production in the secondary. 

Prediction:  The easy thing to do would predict this team to go 3-13 or 4-12.  Since 2001, the Lions have not had a season in which they did not lose at least 10 games.  Only the Ford family knows why Matt Millen still has a job.  While I thought he was a good hire going in, he just hasn’t been able to get this thing turned around.  While he has made some good moves the last few seasons, the perception around the league is that this organization is incompetent.  It is hard to attract big time free agents, when the team has that type of perception.  The Lions are probably going to have to can Matt Millen and bring in a GM who can make good players want to come to Detroit.  The reason I like Detroit to finish ahead of Minnesota is that I like the pieces they have in place on the offensive side of the ball.  Kitna is better than anything the Vikings have at quarterback.  Williams and Johnson would be number one guys on the Minnesota offense.  The Lions have options at running back, although Bell and Jones seem to be the same player.  Not sure why you need 2 of the same thing.  The Lions get a nice start to the season.  Unlike last season, where they opened up against Seattle and Chicago, they open up against the Raiders and Vikings.  I don’t see them doing much against the rest of the AFC West or the NFC North.  The Bucs and Cardinals might offer a chance for some victories.  While the offense should be exciting, the defense is still a ways away.  6-10 is a three game improvement over a year ago, and is about as high as I see the Lions going this season.    

Record:  6-10, 3rd Place NFC North, No Playoffs

Minnesota Vikings

Strengths:  The strengths of the Vikings are their run game and their run defense.  The Vikings gave up a little over 61.6 yards per game on the ground, which was good for best in the NFL.  The Ravens were second with 75.9 yards per game.  Pat and Kevin Williams form one of the best defensive tackle tandems in the league.  Chester Taylor’s 1,216 yards were a good total, especially seeing that the pass offense ranked 18th in the league.  McKinney and Hutchinson are as good of a left side to an offensive line as there is in the NFL.   Added to this rushing attack is Adrian Peterson, the best running back prospect in the draft.  Had he not been injured last season, he probably would have been a top 3 pick. 

Weaknesses:  As good as the run defense was last year, the pass defense was equally as bad, giving up the most yards passing in the NFL.  So bad was the pass defense of the Vikings, that when Denny Green brought is Arizona squad to Minnesota, he decided that he would bypass the running game, and strictly throw the ball.  In fact, he announced that he would be doing so the week before the game.  The result was a 31-26 win for Minnesota.  However, James had the only 4 rushing attempts for the Cardinals, and rookie Matt Leinart threw 51 times for 405 yards.  Teams passed at will against the Vikings last year.  The Vikings added Mike Doss to this unit.  Chad Greenway, the Vikings first round pick never played a down due to knee injury.  Adding him into the lineup should be a boost.  This pass defense is still a ways away from becoming respectable.  The other weakness for the Vikings is the pass offense.  Brad Johnson is now the backup in Dallas, leaving Jackson and Bollinger.  I don’t think the Vikings should have kept Johnson.  The Vikings will not be Super Bowl contenders this year, and it made no sense to keep an old quarterback who had 9 touchdowns last season.  What I find confusing is why the Vikings didn’t go after David Carr.  Jackson only played 2 games last year and was impressive in neither.   While that body of work is too small to make a final determination of his NFL status, it seems like a big gamble to not have any proven veteran on the team.  The other problem in the passing game was the wide receiver spot.  No receiver had more than 60 catches, 700 yards, or 5 touchdowns.  Part of that was due to the quarterback position, and part of it was to do with the quality of the receiver position.  The Vikings added Rice in the second round of their draft.  While he should be an upgrade over many of their returning players, it will be hard for him to have a big impact, considering who is throwing him the ball. 

Prediction:  I’m not as sold on this team as other people.  I have been hearing that they will challenge the Packers for second place in the division.  This team went 6-10 last season, after starting the season 2-0.  Only six times last season was this team able to score more than 20 points.  When your pass defense is giving up the most yards in the league, it is a tough combination for success.  While the Vikings have an excellent run defense, part of the reason it was so good is that teams were too busy destroying the pass defense.  Supporters of this team will point to the left side of the line and the running duo of Taylor and Peterson.  I have no doubt that Peterson will be a good running back.  My problem is that they don’t play with two footballs. Taylor and Peterson can’t run the ball at the same time.  I don’t doubt the Vikings will run the ball effectively.  The problem is they did that last year, and still finished 6-10.  Rice is a nice addition, but rookie receivers don’t usually have a big impact in their first year, especially when their quarterback is also learning on the job.  You look at the receivers that traditionally make splashes in their rookie years; they usually have veteran quarterbacks.  Marvin Harrison is my favorite example of that.  He is a Hall of Fame wide receiver who put up average numbers his first 3 years in the league.  Two of those seasons were before Manning got there, and the other was Manning’s rookie year.  Once Manning became a dominant quarterback, the rest was history.  It is hard for veteran receivers to put up big numbers with poor quarterback play.  For a rookie, it is almost impossible.  The Vikings don’t get to capitalize on the Packers traveling to Kansas City and Denver, as they do the same.  Week 3 to Week 10 is brutal.  The schedule is as follows:  at Chiefs, Packers, at Bears, at Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers, and at Packers.  The combined record from last season is 71-41.  That’s five playoff teams and the Packers.  December has games against the Broncos, Bears, and 49ers.  That isn’t exactly a cupcake month either.  I think people will have different predictions for this team depending on the following:  Is it better to be average in all facets of the game, or dominant in a couple areas and dreadful in others?  I think the Vikings will struggle to capitalize on their strengths, because teams will be too busy exploiting their weaknesses.  Giving up big passing plays and a young quarterback turning the ball over makes it hard to control the clock with a good running game.  The Vikings will probably be a lot like the Packers in 2005, competitive in almost every game, but not good enough to translate into a high victory total.  

Record: 4-12, Last Place NFC North, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the predictions.  Feel free to start ripping me for picking the Packers to do well.  For the last 2 divisions, I have got to read from fans how the Panthers are going to finish 13-3, how the Falcons are without a doubt a playoff team, and how the Eagles will easily win the division, even though McNabb is coming off major knee surgery.  I am confident I will be able to come up with enough to support my position that the Packers have a chance to be the last team in.  With that said, I hope you enjoyed these predictions and I will try to post the NFC West sometime next week. 

 

 

I was listening to the radio this morning and heard a segment about a new book by Jayson Stark called, "The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History."  One of the topics I love to write about is comparing different players.  While I didn't really feel like researching almost 100 years of football to determine who is the most overrated and underrated of all time, I decided to do a list for active players today.  The positions I went by were Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, and Secondary.  As I've stated in previous posts, I don't rate kickers and punters, because they are not football players.   Without further delay, here is my list. 

Quarterback

Underrated:  Marc Bulger (Rams) - He has been a starter since the middle of the 2002 season.  In that time, he has one season below 63% completion.  He has 95 touchdowns against only 59 interceptions.  He has been fairly durable, having only one season in the last four where he failed to start at least 14 games.  He has three seasons of over 3,800 yards.  Yet with Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Mike Martz, and all the big names that have been there since 2002, you don't hear his name as much as you should.  Part of the problem is that the Rams went to two Super Bowls from 1999 to 2001.   Kurt Warner had two of the best regular seasons in NFL history in that time spanned.  Since Bulger took over they have won one playoff game.  However, much of that can be attributed to bad coaching, an aging roster, and a poor defense.  The quarterback is not the problem, evidenced by his two Pro Bowls.  I like the direction the team is headed, and with a solid postseason run; Marc Bulger should look to get more attention.  

Overrated:  Donovan McNabb (Eagles) - I was looking at going with Ron Mexico here, but I think everyone recognizes him as a tremendous athlete, that has never realized his full potential.  Donovan McNabb has gotten a lot of publicity for a lot of reasons.  He led the Eagles to four straight NFC championship games from 2001-2004.  He has been to a Super Bowl.  He makes exciting plays with both his arm and his legs.  He is a likeable player.  However, when you look at the numbers, I don't see it.   He has one 3,500 yard season in his career.  He threw for over thirty touchdowns one time.    He has a career completion percentage of 58.2% in a West Coast Offense.  To his credit, he has 152 career touchdown passes to just 72 interceptions, and he is an excellent rushing quarterback.  However, over the past 5 years he has managed to start over 10 games just twice, and excluding his 2004 season with TO, he hasn't thrown more than 18 touchdown passes.  His value continued to plummet with the success the team experienced under Jeff Garcia.  I think he is still a quality starting quarterback.  However, I think people tend to lump him in with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as one of the league's elite quarterbacks.  I don't think that is a reality either.   

Running Back

Underrated:  Brian Westbrook (Eagles) - Westbrook's problem is that he plays for a coach that loves to pass the ball, and running backs are judged by how many rushing yards they tally.  Brian Westbrook is one of the most dangerous combinations of running and receiving.   Since 2003, his lowest rushing and receiving total is 945 yards back in 2003.   He has been over 1,200 every year since.  Last year he totaled 1,916 rushing and receiving yards.  He is averaging about 9.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns per season since 2003.  However, he has only been to one Pro Bowl back in 2004.  I think his value to the Eagles was further demonstrated by losing McNabb last season and not missing a beat.  For as much experience as Jeff Garcia had, there is no way he could have done what he did without Brian Westbrook.  While Westbrook is not in the Tomlinson and Johnson class, there are too many running backs mentioned before him. 

Overrated:  Clinton Portis (Redskins) - This pick has nothing to do with his recent comments about what happens on Ron Mexico's estate stays on Ron Mexico's estate.   He is a talented runner.  I'm not even basing this on being hurt last season.  I just don't think he has been that effective since leaving Denver.   His first two seasons in Denver were amazing.  He rushed for almost 1550 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns per season.  He made the Pro Bowl in 2003.  Denver was so impressed they traded him to Washington for Champ Bailey.  Since then, his rushing average has dropped to just a tad over 4 yards per carry.  In 29 games with Denver, he had 29 touchdowns.  In 39 games with Washington, he has 23 touchdowns.  He hasn't broke 300 yards receiving since he left Denver.   Some would argue that injuries and coaching have caused his numbers to decline.   I would argue that he was a good running back that looked great in Denver, because that is what Denver does for good running backs.  Once he was removed from that element, we see what he really is.   He is not a top 5 running back.  Furthermore, he is playing this season to remain in the top 10 running backs.  I think the fact that Washington signed Betts to an extension shows that Washington isn't as sold on him as when they traded Champ Bailey to get him. 

Wide Receiver

Underrated: Donald Driver (Packers) - I'm not saying Donald Driver is in the Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, or Chad Johnson class.  Donald Driver's problem is that he has played in the shadow of Brett Favre and Ahman Green.  He has been a great player on a bad team the last couple of seasons.  What people need to realize is that this receiver has had four 1,000 yard seasons in the last five.  He has had three straight 1,200 yard seasons.  He has had three straight seasons with over 80 receptions.  His has yet to crack the 10 touchdown mark, although he has two seasons with 9 touchdowns.   However with Green injured and on the declne the last few seasons, and no threat opposite of him since Javon Walker left, he has been the only good option in the offense.  If Green Bay's running game can improve this year, and Jennings develops into a solid number two, Donald Driver should be able to do even bigger things this year. 

Overrated: Santana Moss (Redskins) - I really have nothing against the Washington Redskins.  I just think that if you asked people if Santana Moss is an elite wide receiver, a lot of people would say yes.  His only Pro Bowl season in 2005 was a fantastic season.  He had 80 plus catches, 1400 plus yards, and 9 touchdowns.  Besides that, he has one other 1,000 yard season.   He also had 10 touchdown catches that year.  The other three seasons he started he didn't crack 900 yards and didn't have more than 6 touchdown catches.  While he is very athletic and has shown glimpses of greatness, he has never been able to put it all together for consecutive seasons, something that elite wide receivers need to do.  Again coaching, injuries, and quarterback shuffles have hurt him.  However, I think this guy is ranked a lot higher than his production suggests he should. 

Tight End

Underrated: Ben Watson (Patriots) - He doesn't get mentioned as a top tight end; mainly because of his short time in the league, the offense he plays in, and the time he shared with Daniel Graham.  Ben Watson is as gifted as any tight end in football.  The Patriots prefer to spread the ball around to many different players.  However, he did have 49 catches for 643 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the absence of a big wide receiving threat.  I think if he played on a team that involved him more in their offense, his speed and athleticism would produce bigger numbers.  It will be interesting to see if the additions of Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth help or hurt his production.  My guess is that with Daniel Graham gone, and safeties concentrating on stopping the deep threats; Ben Watson is going to be seeing a lot of single coverage from linebackers and will be in store for a big year. 

Overrated:  Jeremy Shockey (Giants) - I'm not saying that Jeremy Shockey isn't a good football player.  I'm saying that I think people like to put Jeremy Shockey in the same category as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  Shockey has one 70 catch season, which was his rookie year.  He has never had 1,000 yard season.  He hasn't even had a 900 yard season.  The most touchdown catches he has had in a season is 7.  His 24 touchdowns in 69 games do not scream elite status.  To put it in perspective, Gates has 34 touchdowns in 61 games. He has a 1,000 yard plus season, and two 900 yards plus seasons.   Gonzalez has 6 such seasons, including the last 4 seasons.  I think the temptation is to lump these three players into the same category as superstar tight ends.  I think it is clear that while Shockey is a very good tight end, Gates and Gonzalez are in a class by themselves.

Offensive Lineman

Underrated: Mark Tauscher (Packers) - He is just a very solid player ever since he was drafted.  Started in 2000 as a seventh round pick.  From 2002 to 2004, many people considered the Packers and the Chiefs to have the best offensive lines in football.  He rarely jumps offside, and is hardly ever called for holding.  He is effective both as a run blocker and pass blocker.  However, he has never made a Pro Bowl.  When people think of great tackles, Mark Tauscher is far from the top of most people's list.  However, he has been a solid part of the solid Green Bay Packer offensive line the last 8 seasons. 

Overrated:  Eric Steinbach (Browns) - I wanted to put Leonard Davis here, but while he was overpaid, I don't think anyone besides Dallas considers him to be that good.  This is the hardest position to pick, as offensive linemen as a whole are underrated.   It isn't like the media is running around doing weekly stories about the offensive line.  However, I think that for not playing in a Pro Bowl, a 7-year, $49.5 million contract (of which $17 million is guaranteed) to a guard would qualify as overrated.  At least when Steve Hutchinson signed his big deal, he had helped lead the Seahawks to the Super Bowl and was coming off 3 Pro Bowl Seasons.   The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game.  I think Eric Steinbach is a fantastic football player.  I'm just not sure he is $49 million good. 

Defensive Lineman

Underrated - John Henderson (Jaguars) - I think John Henderson goes under the radar for a number of reasons.  First, he plays in a small market.  The Colts have been the class of that division.  Defensive Tackles tend to go unnoticed, because they don't put up a lot of sacks.  Also, he plays with another great defensive tackle in Marcus Stroud, who has been to 3 Pro Bowls.  Make no mistake, John Henderson is a big reason whey the Jaguars have had such a successful defense the last few seasons.    Henderson has played in every game since he was drafted.  He actually has more sacks than Stroud.  He also has more tackles.  All of this despite having one less season than Stroud. 

Overrated:  Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (Packers) - He is probably one of the more famous names on the Packer's defense.  Has a cool nickname in KGB.  Anyone that has watched him play in Green Bay regrets the day the Packers gave him $39 million dollars.  From 2001 to 2004 he at least registered double digit sack totals.  It at least made it bearable when he was getting run over.  The last two years he has 8 sacks and 6 sacks.  He is a liability against the run, and not sacking the quarterback enough to justify it.  The Packers had to move Jenkins to defense end on running situations to stop the onslaught teams were mounting toward KGB on running downs.  He is a good situational pass rusher, who many people thought of as an every down defensive lineman.  I have heard so many experts say he would be more effective if he had help on the other side.  Reggie White got his teammates at least 10 extra sacks a season, just because teams were concentrating on him.  I have never seen KGB make anyone better on his team. 

Linebacker

Underrated:  Donnie Edwards (Kansas City) - Defensive players are judged by the glamour statistics.  Sacks and Interceptions.   Donnie Edwards is a guy that has never had more than 3 sacks in a season.  However, he has been over 100 tackles every year since 1997, or his second season in the league. The San Diego Chargers didn't have the money to keep him, but they are not happy that he is back with Kansas City, meaning they will face him twice this season.  While sacks are not his specialty, he tackles well, stops the run, and is a defensive leader on the field.   

Overrated:   Dan Morgan (Panthers) - I'm not picking on Dan Morgan, because he is coming off serious injury.  I think this is a player that was a tremendous athlete at the University of Miami, who has never translated to being a great player in the pros.  The Panthers are considered to have a great defensive.  When people think of the Panthers defense, they think of Peppers, Jenkins, and Morgan.  The most tackles he has had in a season are 101.   He has 7 sacks and 5 interceptions in 56 games.  He has never scored a defensive touchdown.  Yet he made the Pro Bowl in 2004.  Part of the problem is that he can't seem to stay on the field.  However, while I acknowledge that he has shown glimpses of being a good middle linebacker, I haven't been as impressed as many people. 

Secondary

Underrated:  Asante Samuel (Patriots) - Just as I don't hate the Redskins, I am not a huge Patriots fan.  I just call them the way I see them.  I understand that the Patriots are the best run front office in football.  I also know that if they don't want to give him big money, it is probably the right move.  He just finished his fourth season in the league.  He is coming off a 10 interception season last year.  He has been a great starting cornerback the last two seasons.  He was one of the cornerbacks that were asked to step in when Ty Law left.  The Patriots haven't missed a beat since then.   This guy doesn't get mentioned as a top cornerback, because of the team first concept the Patriots have established over the last 5 seasons.  This guy is a top NFL talent and I think the Patriots would be foolish to let him get away. 

Overrated:  Nate Clements (49ers) - A lot of this had to do with that ridiculous contract he signed this year.  I understand he was the best defensive back on the market.  But 80 million?  The one good thing I will say about him is that he is durable.  He has played in 16 games every year of his career.  I also know that there is more to evaluating a cornerback than interception totals.  However, he has had 5 interceptions the last two seasons.  He made one Pro Bowl in 2004, which doesn't mean much, seeing Buffalo is a small market and a bad team since he got there.  I just don't equate him to Champ Bailey, Chris McCallister, Ronde Barber, or some of the other elite cornerbacks.  I definitely would not have gotten into that bidding war if I were an NFL GM.