This is my sixth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here is my planned schedule. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest rivalries in the NFL. The Bears, Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises and each have a storied history. The Minnesota Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but have assimilated well into the division’s rivalries. This year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall of Fame QB in Green Bay will not be taking the field. The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre became their quarterback. The Packers won 7 divisional titles in his tenure with Green Bay and won over 60% of their divisional games. Which team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very interesting development.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC North.

1) Minnesota Vikings

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 365(15th)

Points Allowed: 311 (12th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Minnesota Vikings were the best in the league at running the football and they were the best in the league at stopping the run.

Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous season. He rushed for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns despite only starting 9 games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Included in that mammoth total was a 296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for rushing yards in a single game. He also had a 224- yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be having more consistency and doing better with 8 men in the box. In his final 4 games he was held to 54 carries and a 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards per carry. Part of that was his coming back from injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more than they did in the first half of the season.

Chester Taylor also had a fine season. He rushed for 844 yards and 7 touchdowns. Minnesota and Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.

While Peterson and Taylor are good, the line is one of the best in the business. McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line and Birk is a tremendous center. It is imperative that McKinnie not be suspended for his disorderly conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami courtroom.

On defense the Vikings may have the best front 4 in football. Pat and Kevin Williams are two mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely well. New to the mix is Jared Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they sorely missed last season. That should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd ranked pass defense.

On special teams Ryan Longwell is a steady and reliable kicker. It remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return man.

Weaknesses: For as good as the Vikings were running the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad passing the ball and stopping the pass.

Let’s start with the pass defense. It was ranked 32nd last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to help at the safety spot. Finally they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of play and Allen give them the pass rush they have lacked the pass defense should be much improved in 2008. They forced a lot of turnovers in 2007. Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.

That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing touchdowns. They got 3rd receiver type production out of their number one and number two receivers. Darrell Bevell said this about the Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings 3rd year QB, “"He's been outstanding this offseason," Bevell said. "He's been in here watching, studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."

Jackson is the key to the 2008 season for the Vikings and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their pass game. Jackson progressed well in year 2 and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs and possibly advance to a Super Bowl they need him to progress even more.

Even if Jackson is improving, the Vikings still have a weak receiving core. Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven number one receiver even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to develop. Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson are journeymen players. The Vikings have a lot of #2 and #3 receivers, but nobody that screams dominant number one guy. Berrian and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.

Prediction: I think the Vikings are in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in Peterson. The defensive line is probably the best in the NFL. They have a great offensive line. All the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.

The question mark is the quarterback and the passing game. If Jackson were a proven commodity I would say the Vikings would be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is they were 1st in rush offense and defense a year ago and that got them 8-8. The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far as he takes them.

The schedule looks tougher than it really is. The Vikings caught a number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that record. They drew no cold weather sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally struggle with. They face the easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16 before closing with the NY Giants at home. That bodes well for them taking control of the division with a late season surge.

I look for the Vikings to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004. I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their franchise history and their first divisional title since their NFC Central crown back in 2000.

Minnesota Vikings’ Record: 11-5 – NFC North Divisional Champion; NFC #2 Seed

2) Green Bay Packers

07 Record: 13-3

Points Scored: 435 (4th)

Points Allowed: 291 (6th)

Playoff Result: Lost NFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Packers had an unbelievably balanced team in 2007. They finished 4th in points scored and 6th in points allowed. Favre had an impressive season, finishing 2nd in the MVP race. Grant had the most yards of any back in the NFL not named Tomlinson in the second half of the regular season. Mason Cosby finished 2nd in the Pro Bowl voting at kicker. Other than at Chicago, Ryan did a decent job of punting. Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in that regard.

There were few changes that needed to be made and people assumed #4 would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008 and now one player leaving has created a lot of questions. It is hard to judge the Packers 2008 chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front 7 and the corners.

The Packers have an extremely deep defensive line. Kampan is a great pass rusher that supports the run well. Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell and others provide good depth.

The linebackers support the run well, but they struggle to cover the pass and in particular the tight end. That should improve simply by not facing Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey this season. Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule and they need to improve in that area. Barnett is always solid and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.

The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best corner duo in the NFL. They are extremely physical. While they draw a lot of interference calls they make up for it with picks, stopping 3rd downs, and wearing down receivers. However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up and down first year starting, but ended up being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December and was lights out in the playoffs. He needs to play like he did at the end of the year. The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and dime packages. They need players to step up there.

All in all this is a very young defensive unit other than the corners. This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.

Weaknesses: It’s been a long time since we said the offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Pack finds themselves in 2008. I don’t want to come across as having the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year and I like a lot of things the Packers have going on offense. But I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the Packers did. To assume a 4th year QB that has yet to start a NFL game can just step in and keep the ball rolling is not realistic. It is not fair to Aaron Rodgers.

With regards to Rodgers, he may very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packer fan I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to say he is definitely going to succeed. Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing. I like how he has progressed in making reads and his command of the offense since his rookie year. That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability. The injuries have been freakish in nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all time most durable starting quarterback’s backup. Brian Braum is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

The receivers are solid and the strength of the offense. They are great athletes and ranked number one in yards after the catch. Driver is a veteran presence, Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and Jones, Martin, and Nelson all provide good depth. Lee had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help Rodgers make the transition.

Remember that the yards after the catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of #4’s ability to throw the deep ball. Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect Rodger’s deep ball. I expect those guys to be solid and put up good numbers, but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were in 2007.

The offensive line is interesting. The tackles are good, but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed and became a strength of the team. Part of the reason that the Packers could go so many 4 and 5 wide receiver sets is because of #4’s command of the offense and his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. The Packers surrendered only 19 sacks, tied for 3rd in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more 4 and 5 receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at receiver.

Finally, we get to the running back. Who is the real Ryan Grant? Is he the back that had 201 yards and 3 touchdowns against Seattle or the one that had 29 yards and 0 touchdowns against the Giants? 1 would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. 10 games are not enough to anoint a guy a star running back. The Packers are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers and he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see from defenses. He is perfect for that zone-blocking scheme and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and 7-9 touchdowns.

Prediction: I find it entertaining how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality that the Packers have a great young team and Rodgers is just ready to step in based on a good half against Dallas.

Since 1992 the Packers have finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006. In 2007 the Packers finished 2nd in passing yards, 4th in points scored, 6th in touchdown passes, and 11th in interceptions thrown.

This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Montana and his 16 touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring from the Dolphins in 1999. Those guys are All Time Greats, but were very average at the end of their career. Even if you take out the fact the Packers are losing an All-Time Great player and leader, they are still losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important position.

There are still a lot of good players on the team. I don’t expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show they can still win and will be motivated to do well without #4. There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.

Had Favre come back, I would have thought 10-6 or 11-5 would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule. The Packers have a lot of tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at New Orleans, Indy, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. I think you are going to see games where they amaze and games where they really struggle. A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is a realistic expectation. They should be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009 if their young players continue to grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions at the offensive tackles and cornerback.

Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8 – NFC North 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Detroit Lions

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 346 (16th)

Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.543) (10th in NFL)

Strengths: The Lions had a great passing attack under passing guru Mike Martz. He is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in the division and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald give him a lot of weapons. Roy Williams is a solid target and Calvin Johnson is a freak and should have a much better 2nd year now that he has experience and is healthy. The Lions should be able to throw the ball and put points up on the board. Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked 2nd in 2006 and 1st in 2007 in that regard. He also has to take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.

This was a team that started the 2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7. When they were winning their passing offense was not the only thing carrying them. They were good at forcing turnovers early in the season. The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL, which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished 9th in sacks with 37. That made up for their 31st ranked pass defense. Fernando Bryant is no longer with the team. Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that regard.

Shaun Rodgers is gone from the defensive line. It will be interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd in the NFL with him. Corry Redding and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but never really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks there wasn’t much this defense did right in 2007.

Jason Hanson is still the kicker and a mainstay in Detroit. He has been with the Lions since 1992 and is considered one of the more reliable kickers in the NFL.

Weaknesses: This team really lacked a running game. They ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that. Keep in mind that he coached Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson in St Louis. While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful backs in his system. Part of the Lions inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor offensive line, and defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.

The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones and TJ Duckett and retained Tatum Bell. They drafted Kevin Smith in the 3rd round. They are also instituting a zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL. The Lions still figure to be weak running the ball in 2008. Zone blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good nor does it make bad running backs great. I watched Green Bay make that transition and it took over a year to see results. Bell had good games in a zone-blocking scheme in Denver. He needs to step up his production in 2008. It will be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split time.

The offensive line needs to improve on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007. That is one reason why the Lions throw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people down field. When you finish last in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and give up the 3rd most sacks there aren’t many positives to look at on the offensive line. That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus in the first round. He will be asked to step in immediately.

On defense they have to hope the people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their front 7 to stop the run and create pressure. Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in Denver. Until the Lions improve on stopping the run it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out of their secondary.

Prediction: The Lions were a team that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that team would crash in the second half of the season and they did just that. Matt Millen has proven time and time again that he cannot draft well and that he is unable to put his coaches in a position to succeed. There are good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.

The Lions have a good passing offense and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take pressure of that offense. Their receivers will cause problems for team and I expect a decent offensive showing from the Lions.

What I also expect is they will struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to give them fits with their defense. Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in division games. What it amounts to is Kitna predicting 10 wins and reality delivering another 6 or 7 win season and another year of missing the playoffs.

Detroit Lions’ Record: 6-10 – NFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Chicago Bears

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 348 (16th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Bears have always had offensive issues. What they traditionally relied on was a very strong defense. In 2005 they finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. In their 2006 Super Bowl season they finished 3rd and 5th in those areas. They have been one of the best teams at forcing turnovers. That has allowed the less than stellar offense to work with a short field and control the clock with the run.

That never panned out last season. The Bears offense was still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher was hurt and did not play up to his standards. Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.

The defensive line is still strong. Tommy Harris is a fantastic defensive tackle. Alex Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.

The linebackers are still great too. Urlacher is one of the best in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy; as he did sign the long-term deal he had been looking for the last couple seasons. He is a 3-time Pro Bowler.

In the secondary Brown, Tillman, Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning and McBride give the Bears a number of people for coverage and making big plays. They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that they will be able to force turnovers, which is a must for a Cover 2 team. That will help offense produce enough in short field situations to give the Bears defense leads and rest. If that happens there is still enough defensive talent to carry this team to the playoffs.

Last, but certainly not least are the special teams. Devin Hester. He is the Bears best weapon at this point. After just 2 seasons he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the NFL. He makes a lot of big plays in the return game and as a wide receiver. The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special teams specialist. Finally, Robbie Gould is a solid kicker. The Bears probably have the best special teams in the NFL.

Weaknesses: The problem is there just isn’t a lot of talent on offense. As bad as it was last year it is worse in 2008. That starts with the quarterbacks. Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown they are capable of leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their 06 Super Bowl run. They need one of them to emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will. The Bears did nothing to sign a quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.

Then we get to receiver. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis. None of those guys are acceptable #3 receivers on average passing teams at this point. It is either possession receivers or home run hitters. There is no receiver that is a complete package in the group. The fact that two of them must start is not good news for the passing game. Clark and Olson are quality tight ends and the best targets this team has in the passing game.

Then there is the offensive line. Fred Miller was released this summer at tackle. They hope Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster at 29. The line is starting to get old and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those positions. Fred Miller was not the only thing holding that line back.

Finally, there is the running back spot. Benson has been waived after 2 arrests in 5 weeks. Adrian Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out below average backfield. As a whole, the Bears offense is among the most unproven in the NFL. There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team strength. It should finish among the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.

Prediction: I know Bears fans will point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average offense. That they went 11-5 and won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense in 2005. The feeling in Chicago is that defense wins championships and the Bears have the defense.

I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have started to get older. Urlacher is starting to have health issues and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two this defense becomes average very quickly. Last season the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team and they really struggled as a team to consistently win. The Bears first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17 after they had been eliminated from playoff contention.

This year the offense is even worse. Benson, Berrian, and Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears have. Griese is no longer around if Grossman struggles. There are a lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they were in 2005 and 2006.

The Bears get a very tough schedule. The Colts, Jags, and Titans all have tremendous defenses. The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are traditionally tough on defense. That is half their schedule that they may not score more than 10-14 points per game against. The defense will keep the Bears in those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many victories.

The Bears window has closed in my opinion and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some younger pieces on defense. Only time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.

Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11 – NFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”

‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”

On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."

We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road.  Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks.  Most will not live up to expectations.  Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams.  Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes. 

We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed.  None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action.  It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust.  Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players.  It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.

Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now?  Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers.  Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player.  If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.

Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft.  I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008.  I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names.  I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super.  However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5.  22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.

The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there.  Both were selected in the 3rd round.

The position I struck out on was wide receiver.  I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round.  Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round.   That was brutal. 

Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B.  By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.

5 questions

1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right.  Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons.  Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007.  He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself.  They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball.  He was the player that could most help them do that.  By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.

The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting.  With these guys you don’t.  The draft can be very unforgiving.  Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss.  They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver. 

However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams.  The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen.  I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired.  This was a good gamble.  The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own.  This may end up going down as a win-win trade.

2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.  Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong. 

Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick.  If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.

This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy.  It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta.  It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them.  They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.

With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players.  While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.

3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long?  Absolutely.  Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later.  Both players were safe picks.  I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft.  Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling.  Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling.  There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round.  There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10. 

By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one.  If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.

4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure.  This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product.  The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition.  There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi.  Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois.  The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school.   The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him.  Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.

The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty.  While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft.  I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round.  If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble.  If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department.  At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round.  Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback.  If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.

5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy.  Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now.  He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt.  Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.

Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing.  If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend.  The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later.  Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer. 

Brohm fills two needs.  First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them.  From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense.  Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history.  That is not a good sign. 

The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out.  If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games.  If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future.  The value was good and the pick made sense.  Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.

5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.

1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen.  If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too.  That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team.  While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.

Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams.  The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season.  It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith.  At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line.  You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends. 

The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick.  It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player. 

The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft.  While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board.  He should substantially upgrade their defensive line.  Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement.  Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round.  He should help improve the secondary. 

Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2.  Jamal Charles could be a quality running back.  Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft.   I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.

The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota.  If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road.  This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.

2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year.  Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007.  Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10.   Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down.  They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State.  He is a bigger receiver.  Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end.  Finally, they added Malcom Kelly.  Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout.  Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.

On the second day they added a lot of depth.  Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly.  Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle.  They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner.  This was a major need as well. 

The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position.  Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone.  The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone.  When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot. 

Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round.  They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense.  If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.

3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft.  The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long.  Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007.  Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick.  That was good value.

In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick.  He should help on their defensive line.  Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.

The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks.  On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs.  Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round.  He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.

While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year.  They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle.  The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL.  Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line.  If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard. 

Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off.  Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength.  If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment.  Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round.  Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft.  I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick

This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad.  In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft.  They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery.  He may move to receiver. 

They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development.  Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.

5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick.  I had him rated slightly higher than Jones.  However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber.  The pick makes sense in that respect.

Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick.  That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up.  Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett. 

The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names.  The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round.  They have excellent potential to do that.  Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3.  With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.

5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.

1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver.  I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade.  Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game.  White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.

Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards.  They have to find a way to upgrade that position.  Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan.  While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver.  The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California.  I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind.  William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy.  That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.

Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft.  The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys.  Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson.  Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks.  I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be. 

I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs.  I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points.  The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves.  The Chargers have a lot of weapons.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace.  Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year. 

Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft.  In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.

2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out.  It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter.  However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect.  I thought this was a substantial reach.  Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell.  That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value. 

Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.” 

I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round.  The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith.  That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line. 

I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back.  While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect.    This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City. 

3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds.  Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion.  But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round? 

Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized.  A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner.  I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point.  The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.

Then they drafted Justin King on day two.  He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver.  All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that.  With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.

4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9.  I thought he would slip later into the first round.  But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?

The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into.  Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ.  It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.

Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson.  While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that.  Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.

Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him.  Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season.  While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2. 

The Bengals did okay in the later rounds.  Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver.  If he can stay healthy he could contribute.  Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise.  He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence.  At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp. 

While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out.  If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft.  I don’t think they did much after that.  I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008.  Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.

5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out?  I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots.  I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft. 

I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans.  But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress.  He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.

I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10.  Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft.  Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round.  I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round.  I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo.  All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.

Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round.  Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions.  Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly.  When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.

The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years.  Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right.  They selected linebacker depth and special teams help.  Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell. 

Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo.   I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson.  You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft.  That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.

That is my draft recap.  Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May.  Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.

 

New England survived a second consecutive scare and won a game that Baltimore should have won had it not been for a huge meltdown caused by questionable penalties and a lack of intelligence or execution.  The Patriots are three fourths of the way to perfection.  Dallas won the Game of the Century, Part III and became the second team in the 2007 season to clinch a playoff birth.  Meanwhile, Miami lost their best chance to gain a victory this season.  They are three fourths of the way to perfect imperfection.  If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game.  It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter.  Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it.  I hereby present to you a recap of the thirteen week in the National Football League. 

Standings
 

AFC East                                NFC East
1.New England (12-0)**      1.Dallas (11-1)*
2.Buffalo (6-6)                        2.NY Giants (8-4)
3.NY Jets (3-9)                       3.Washington (5-7)
4. Miami (0-12)                       4.Philadelphia (5-7) 

 AFC South                              NFC South
1.Indianapolis (10-2)            1. Tampa Bay (8-4)
2. Jacksonville (8-4)              2. New Orleans (5-7)
3. Tennessee (7-5)               3. Carolina (5-7)
4. Houston (5-7)                     4. Atlanta (3-9)

 AFC North                              NFC North
1.Pittsburgh (9-3)                  1.Green Bay (10-2)
2.Cleveland (7-5)                  2.Detroit (6-6)
3.Cincinnati (4-8)                  3. Minnesota (6-6)
4.Baltimore (4-8)                   4.Chicago (5-7)

 AFC West                             NFC West
1. San Diego (7-5)                1. Seattle (8-4)
2. Denver (5-7)                      2.Arizona (6-6)
3. Kansas City (4-8)             3. San Francisco (3-9)
4. Oakland (4-8)                    4. St Louis (3-9)
 
**Clinched Division
* Clinched Playoff Spot

MVP of the Week:  I would start with Tony Romo who rose to the occasion and had 309 yards and 4 touchdowns in the victory over Green Bay.  Honorable mentions to Peyton Manning who had 288 yards and 4 touchdowns in the Colt’s huge victory over Jacksonville.  LT had 177 yards and 2 touchdowns over Kansas City.  Reggie Wayne, TO, and Joey Galloway all had over 150 yards receiving with Wayne and TO adding a touchdown.  Finally Lofa Tatupu, who had 11 tackles and 3 interceptions in Seattle’s victory over Philly.

Game of the Week:  This would probably be the hardest week for me to pick.  Dallas and Green Bay had a great start to the week.  The Packers were down 27-10 after 5 possessions and Favre was knocked out of the game.  Aaron Rodgers had the game at 27-24 entering the 4th quarter.  That would prove to be a 37-27 Dallas victory.  AJ Feeley threw his 4th pick near the Seattle endzone to seal a 28-24 victory for the Seahawks.  The Giants and Bears played an exciting 21-16 game in Chicago.  Rex Grossman had a few Hail Marys from the Giants 30 yard line that were unsuccessful.  Buffalo and Washington was decided on a game winning field goal for Buffalo.  Tampa and New Orleans was decided bay a touchdown with just 17 seconds left in a bizarre ending to that game.  But the winner was the Patriots and Ravens on Monday Night.  For the second straight week a 20-point underdog found a way to stay in the game until the final seconds.  The last drive featured two fourth down conversions, one of which was by penalty.  The Patriots capitalized on penalties and Raven’s meltdowns to keep perfection alive.

Loser of the Weak:  The Detroit Lions.  Playoff teams can’t lose 42-10 in the midst of a 3 game losing streak at Minnesota.  Miami Dolphins.  Winless teams can’t lose 40-13 in their most winnable game left in the season.    AJ Feeley who had one touchdown and 4 interceptions in a home loss to Seattle.  Backup or starter; 3 picks to Lofa Tatupu is not an acceptable performance.  Denver Broncos.  Playoff hopefuls do not lose at Oakland by 2 touchdowns.  Finally, the Officials and Ravens Defense.  Officials are like small children.  Other than the Head Referee, they should be seen and not heard.  Their questionable calls and chatter with the Ravens was embarrassing and needs to be addressed.  I’m not buying into the conspiracy theory that the league wants the Patriots to go 16-0.  Still you don’t want situations that create the appearance of impropriety.  The questionable calls didn’t create that as much as the unnecessary chatter with the Ravens players.  It made it look like the calls were becoming personal rather than objective, whether or not that was actually the case.  Bart Scott throwing a flag into the stands and having 30 of the Ravens 35 yards of penalties was equally a joke.  Evidently it wasn’t important that offense get the ball in good field position a big spot.  That reaction showed me one thing.  The defense does not acknowledge that the offense is even part of that team.  If they had, they wouldn’t have gotten 35 yards in penalties.  Whether that attitude is justified is another question.  It looked clear to me that Brian Billick has lost his team and that a change would probably do both parties well. 

The Bay of Pigs:  I’m not going to name one this week.  The only candidate would be the Buffalo and Washington game.  I respect what the Redskins did in just taking the field in the most difficult of circumstances.  The Sean Taylor homicide last week with a looming funeral on Monday followed by a Thursday Night Game this week made playing that game a very difficult challenge.  They handled that as well as could be expected.    

The Cam Cameron Award (Excellence in Coaching):  I have a lot of candidates this week.  1) Joe Gibbs calling 2 consecutive timeouts.  That is a 15-yard penalty and resulted in Buffalo having a 36-yard field goal instead of a 51-yard attempt.  Gibbs was a class act after the game and took full responsibility for the mistake, 2) Tom Coughlin.  He won the game, but Chicago had 3 attempts at the endzone, because he elected to score a touchdown with 1:33 instead of taking the knee at the 1-yard line and depleting the Bears of both time and timeouts.  Then he didn’t go for 2 points that would have made it a 6-point game instead of a 5-point game.  Apparently he feel the extra point is a formality for the Bears, but a field goal from the same distance is too risky for his squad. I instantly became a Bears fans because I hate seeing stupidity rewarded, 3) Sean Payton.  Can’t call a half back reverse gadget play late in the game trying to run out the clock with a lead.  The result was a Reggie Bush turnover and new life for the Bucs. 4) Finally, Brian Billick.  Not so much for his timeout that negated a 4th down stop of the Patriots.  That could happen to anyone.  It was unfortunate.  The real problem is that he was unable to keep his defense together after that.  That final drive demonstrated the lack of cohesion between Offense, Defense, and Coaching Staff.  As I stated above, that is a team in desperate need of a change at the top.

Hospital Visit:  Steve McNair is in need of shoulder surgery.  He is out for the season and his career is definitely at a crossroads.  Roy Williams is expected to be out for the season with a sprained knee.  Dolphins safety Cameron Worrell is out for the season with an ACL tear.  Derrick Ward broke his leg in the Giants game and is out indefinitely.  Jeff Garcia has no structural damage to his back.  He is questionable to play against Houston next week.  Finally, Brett Favre separated his left shoulder and bruised his elbow.  He is expected to make his 250th consecutive start this week against the Raiders. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) What is happening to the Detroit Lions? –  This was a team that was the product of a favorable opening schedule.  They played 2 games against the Bears.  They played Minnesota early in the season with a young QB.  Oakland and Denver were nice opponents.  Tampa is really their only solid win.  Since the 6-2 start they have played Arizona, NY Giants, Green Bay, and Minnesota.  Four consecutive games against playoff contenders.  The result has been a 0-4 stretch where they have been outscored by an average score of 31.5 to 16.  They have allowed over 30 points in 3 of the 4 games.  They have lost by 10 plus points in 3 of the 4 games.  Simply put, Detroit was very fortunate at the beginning of the season.  They won an OT game against Minnesota at home.  They scored 34 points in the 4th quarter against Chicago.  They picked Griese 7 times in those two wins.  They also created their own fortune in their blowout win over Denver and their close victory over Tampa Bay.   The problem for the Lions is they are 2-4 on the road as compared to 4-2 at home.  Their last 2 home games have been to (8-4) NY Giants and (10-2) Green Bay.  Hence, the 4 game losing streak.  Detroit has made a lot of strides since last season.  They are competitive and relevant.  They have a chance to not have 10 losses this season and a chance to win 8 games.  However, they are not a playoff team.  They can’t run the football, they turn the ball over too much, they don’t protect the QB, and they can’t stop the pass.  As of late, they aren’t stopping the run either.  Detroit is a good story and is finally headed in the right direction for the first time since Barry Sanders retired and Matt Millen took over.  However, they are still not a playoff team.

2) Can Jacksonville Challenge the Top 3 in the AFC? – No really.  They just don’t have enough explosion in the offensive part of the game to contend with these three teams.  They have a fantastic defense, they run the ball well, and they don’t make many mistakes.  Garrard had his first pick of the season this week.  They play good teams tough because they are as physical as any team in the league.  However, they just don’t score enough. They rank 14th in scoring offense.  That will be enough to beat the Texans, Titans, Broncos, and some of the other teams on their schedule.  However, good offense usually beats good defense.  To beat the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers teams usually have to score 30 points to beat those teams.  The Jags have scored over 30 points just twice this season, against Buffalo and Denver.  Furthermore, the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers all have respectable to great defenses.  Jacksonville will be a tough out and if one of those three teams overlooks the Jags, the Jags could make them pay in a single elimination situation.  While they should make the playoffs and win a first round playoff game, I can’t see them seriously challenging the top three teams in the AFC.

3)  Previewing Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0) – This is a fascinating matchup. The Patriots have not been the same team they were in their first 8 ballgames.  They have scored 24, 56, 31, and 27 points in their last four contest.  The Colts game was decided by 4 points.  Fair enough, the Colts are arguably the 2nd best team in the NFL.  The Bills was the expected blowout.  But the Eagles are 5-7 and the Ravens are 4-8.  These are games the Patriots are supposed to win.  It hasn’t so much been the offense that is troubling.  Those point totals are great by most team’s standards.  It’s the 20.5 points per game the defense is allowing.  Is this simply a matter of a team with nothing left to play for losing its focus?  Possibly, but the Patriots defense is definitely not scaring people in recent weeks.  The 24 points the Ravens scored on Monday was their third highest total of the season.  This was an offense that had scored 14 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games.  The defense will have to play better against the Steelers if they want to win this week.  On the Steelers side it is very simple.  They have the running back to attack the Patriots.  Miller is good at stretching the middle of the field.  Ward and Washington are good targets.  Big Ben can win big games.  The Steelers are 7-0 on the road as opposed to 2-3 on the road.  This game is in Foxboro.  Are the Steelers good enough to go on the road and beat a quality team?  So far they have losses at Arizona, Denver, and the NY Jets.  The Steelers will not only need to play their very best game of the season, but do so in an environment they have not thrived in this season.  I look for the game to similar to the Colts game and in the 20s.  While I would not be surprised if Pittsburgh won the contest, until they prove they can play well on the road, I am going with the Patriots. 

4) Is Minnesota the front-runner for the NFC’s #6 seed – They definitely are one of the hottest team in the NFC.  Dallas has won 6 games in a row.  Seattle and Tampa Bay have won 4 in a row.  Minnesota is next in line with 3 in a row.  Outside of the division leaders, they are playing as well as any of the wild card contenders.  The schedule sets up fairly well for the Vikings.  They play the 49ers on the road.  Bears and Redskins at home.  They finish at Denver.  None of these teams have a winning record.  Their combined winning percentage is .375.  Those 4 teams rank 26th, 27th, 10th, and 31st against the run.  That does not bode well for the opposition.  Furthermore, 3 of the Vikings 6 losses are to the Packers and Cowboys.  They were in two of those 3 games.  If they had an easier schedule or division they could easily be 8-4 right now.  If you take the 34-0 beat down the Packers gave the Vikings at Lambeau, there 5 losses are by 30 points or 6 points per contest.  This is a young team that has played competitive and is learning to win at the right time.  None of the other 5 NFC playoff teams wants to see Adrian Peterson in the playoffs.  He is a guy that could bust out for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in a playoff game and knock out a better team in the playoffs.  The key is that Jackson is starting to throw the ball a lot better than he was at the beginning of the season.  While he is not going to be confused for one of the top QBs in the league, he has a plus 100 rating in his last 2 games.  He also has only one interception.  I look for the Vikings to get to 9-7, which is a lot better than I had them pegged for at the beginning of the season.  Detroit and Arizona are their main remaining competition for the #6 seed.  Detroit is in a 4 game tailspin and has a brutal schedule left that features Dallas, Green Bay, and San Diego.  Arizona has Seattle and New Orleans, but closes with Atlanta and St Louis.  I believe that Arizona and Minnesota set up the best to make a run for that #6 seed.

5) The Playoff Picture – The NFC started to clear up a lot after this week.  Three of the four divisions appear to be sealed.  Dallas needs one win in their next four games to clinch the East and two games to clinch homefield advantage.  They have a one game lead over Green Bay with tiebreaker for home field advantage.  Green Bay needs one victory in their next four to clinch the North.  They have a 2 game lead over Seattle and Tampa for a first round bye.  Tampa has basically won the NFC South.  They have a two game lead and tiebreakers over New Orleans and a week 17 matchup at home against fading Carolina.    It will take a monumental collapse by Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay will be needed for the challengers to catch them.  The only division with intrigue is the NFC West.  Seattle has a 2 game lead over Arizona.  This Sunday’s game between the two will decide whether Seattle wins the division or if we have a race to the finish.  The NY Giants have a 2 game lead in the wildcard and appear to be in great position for one wildcard.   The Cardinals, Lions, and Vikings are all 6-6.  Four teams are further back at 5-7.  In the AFC the Patriots have clinched the division and are two victories away from clinching the number one seed.  Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have two game leads with tiebreakers over Cleveland and Jacksonville.  Those divisions appear to be over with those two teams fighting for the other first round bye.  San Diego has opened up a 2 game lead over Denver and 3 game lead over Kansas City and Oakland.  There is a week 16 matchup between Denver and San Diego looming, but Denver will have to win out in order for that game to matter.  Jacksonville at 8-4 is still in solid position for the first wildcard.  Tennessee and Cleveland are still solid at 7-5 and will battle for the final wildcard.  Buffalo is trailing at 6-6 with a host of teams sitting at 5-7.  These teams are long shots should the frontrunners falter.

A Look Ahead:  I went 3-3 on the picks last week.  Green Bay did not do as well as I hoped in Dallas, Cleveland lost a close game in The Desert, and the Lions have failed me for the last time.  Here are my important games for next week other than Pittsburgh and New England, which I discussed above.  These are not necessarily the 5 best games, but the 5 games that I feel will be the most influential in shaping the various divisions:   

1) Chicago (5-7) at Washington (5-7) – An elimination game for two teams that were basically eliminated with losses last week.  With so many teams jumbled together teams are going to find it difficult to make up 2 game deficits when that includes jumping over 6 or 7 teams.  This is a tough spot for Washington.  They just had an emotional week with the death of Sean Taylor.  They lost an emotional game at home to Buffalo.  They attended a funeral on Monday and now have to get ready to play a Thursday night game.  Chicago has not been able to string together consecutive wins this season.  Since Week 4 Chicago has alternated wins and losses.  If the pattern holds true, this is their week to win.  I look for Chicago to win a low scoring game and keep their faint playoff hopes alive.  Winner:  Chicago

2) Dallas (11-1) at Detroit (6-6) – Detroit needs a win badly.  6-2 seems like a long time ago.  They have dropped 4 consecutive games.  They are allowing teams to gash them with the run and pass.  They are giving up a ton of points.  That isn’t a spot where you want to try to fix that against Dallas.  The game is at home and Detroit plays well at home.  Dallas is in a class of their own.  I look for Dallas to officially clinch the NFC East and moved one game closer to home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Winner: Dallas

3) New York Giants (8-4) at Philadelphia (5-7) – If the NY Giants win this game, they would have seemed to weather the second half slide.  9-4 sets up very well for them to earn one of the two wildcards.  They would basically have to lose out their last 3 games and have both Arizona and Minnesota win out.  With the Redskins and Bills still on the Giant’s horizon, that seems unlikely.  For Philadelphia, they are still alive in the playoff hunt.  They have tiebreakers with Detroit.  They have to win this game.  A win here gives them a split with both Washington and NY Giants.  It stops a 2 game losing streak.  Playoff teams can’t lose 3 games in a row in November and December.  Furthermore, the Eagles have a tough road to go.  With games at Dallas, at New Orleans, before closing out against the Bills, this doesn’t look like a team capable of running the table.  Neither team screams pick me with their recent play on the field.  Seeing Philly has 7 interceptions in their last 2 games and McNabb’s health is still in doubt, I’ll go with the Giants.  Eli is actually playing better than someone for a change.  Winner: NY Giants

4) San Diego (7-5) at Tennessee (7-5) – Haynesworth comes back and the Titans win. Interesting how that works.  This game comes down to location.  The Chargers are 2-4 on the road as opposed to 5-1 at home.  Their only 2 wins are against that sorry excuse for a division known as the AFC West.  In their 4 road games out of division, they have been outscored by an average score of 32-18.  Tennessee is 4-2 at home.  One loss was to the Colts by two points back in week 2.  The other was a blowout by Jacksonville without Haynesworth.  I have learned this season to not pick the Chargers to beat anyone outside their division on the road.  I have also learned that Tennessee is a force to be reckoned with so long as they have the big man in the middle of the D line.  I look for this game to be very similar to the Jacksonville game where the Chargers lost 24-17.  Winner: Tennessee

5) Arizona (6-6) at Seattle (8-4) – If Seattle wins, they clinch the NFC West.  They would have a split with Arizona without the burden of two divisional losses to San Francisco.  A 3 game lead with 3 games to play and tiebreaker seals the deal.  If Arizona misses the playoffs, they will look back at those two 49ers losses and shake their head.  This is another location game.  Seattle is 5-1 at home and Arizona is 2-4 on the road.  Seattle’s defense is forcing turnovers and sacking the QB.  That is not a good thing when Warner is the QB.  Seattle is also passing the ball very well and is starting to get healthy.  The Cardinals are 11th against the run, but 24th against the pass.  That is not a good recipe for beating Seattle either.  I like the matchups for Seattle.  I like the location for Seattle.  I look for Seattle to clinch this division.  Winner: Seattle

That’s all for this week.  This week in addition to my normal newsletter, I will take a look at New England’s historical 12-0 start and compare it to other great 12 game starts.  I had promised that article after I did the 6-0 article and I am a person of my word.   I look forward to hearing your comments.

There are three things that I always think about when it comes to Thanksgiving Day.  1) Spending time with family, 2) Eating way too much turkey, stuffing, potatoes, cranberries, and pie, and 3) Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys football.  While the NFL Network will for the second straight year kick of their Drive for the Playoffs on Thanksgiving Night, they can't duplicate the tradition that surrounds football in Dallas and Detroit on Thanksgiving.  There is something special about Dallas and Detroit playing football that day.  Smith and Sanders.  Irvin and Moore.  Aikman and Harrington.  Okay, now I'm reaching.  While Detroit has not been very good in recent years, there still have been a lot of great memories over the years, even if the teams involved haven't always been great.

The Lions have hosted an NFL contest year since 1934, with the exception of 1939 to 1944 due to World War II. The Dallas Cowboys have hosted an NFL contest every year since 1966, with the exception of 1975 and 1977, when the St. Louis Cardinals hosted a game instead.  Have to wonder why that would have stopped.  The Lions and Cardinals for the whole football viewing nation to adore.  That is a little too much. 

This year, we will probably see two blowouts and one interesting game.  Unless the Colts or Cowboys do something amazing, I can't see them allowing the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets to give them much o####ame.  The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers has the opportunity to be a classic divisional contest.   It also renews a traditional rivalry from the 1950s and 1960s.

Over the last few weeks, there has been a lot of debate on the blog.  I would like to thank everyone that has been contributing to the discussion.  We have had some great debates about the Patriots and Colts, whether Tom Brady is the MVP, whether Brett Favre is playing his best football in a decade, and countless other topics.  There has been passionate debate by many knowledgeable fans. 

This week with many people spending time with family and friends, I expect it to be a light week on the blog.  I wanted to write about something a little less controversial.  Something that won't get the blood boiling.  We'll save that for after Thanksgiving, which signifies the beginning playoff run. 

What I thought I would do is look at 5 of the most memorable Thanksgiving Day contest.  While I like to think of myself as a very knowledgeable NFL fan, there isn't any way I have the time or energy to sift through every game, score, and standing to find out which is the best Thanksgiving Day Game.  Furthermore, I don't think people would really be that interested.  If you are that committed to ranking All-Time Turkey Day Contest, you are more committed to the NFL than I. 

These are the 5 most memorable games in chronological order that I could think of over the 70 some years of Thanksgiving Day NFL action.

1) November 22, 1962 Green Bay (10-0) at Detroit Lions (8-2) - Arguably one of the most significant regular season games in NFL History.  The Packers were the defending champions and had raced out of the gates to a 10-0 start.  They finished the season outscoring their opponents 415-148, or by 19.1 ppg.  The Lions were their closest challenger, having only 2 losses on the season.  The Lions deemed the game as "The Grudge Match" because they had lost an extremely close game earlier in the season at Lambeau Field, 9-7.  Bart Starr was sacked an amazing 11 times during the game that saw Detroit build a 26-0 lead through three quarters.  Green Bay scored a couple meaningless touchdowns, but lost by a final of 26-14.   It would be the only blemish on Green Bay's 1962 campaign.  They went on to beat the NY Giants 16-7 in the NFL Championship Game.  Detroit finished the season 11-3, but did not make the playoffs, as there was only an NFL Championship Game in those years.  Think the 07 New England Patriots trailing the 07 Pittsburgh Steelers 26-0 through 3 quarters.  That was the magnitude of this contest.  

2) November 23, 1989 Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-10) - This game is memorable for what happened off the field, not on it.  Philadelphia was in the Buddy Ryan era and Dallas had a young first year coach in Jimmy Johnson.  The Walker trade would not pay dividends until the 1990 draft.  The Eagles won as expected, 27-0.  However, after the game John Madden presented Reggie White with the Turkey Leg as the games Most Outstanding Player.  The award followed Madden from CBS to Fox and became a fixture until 2002, when Madden left Fox to join ABC which did not carry Thanksgiving Football.  The awards have since lost their luster, but the Galloping Gobbler Award and All Iron Award have their roots in this memorable game. 

3) November 25, 1993 Miami (8-2) at Dallas (7-3) - Leon Lett's second memorable moment.  After having been stripped by Don Beebe in the Super Bowl the year before while prematurely celebrating a touchdown, Leon Lett had this memorable blunder.  The Cowboys blocked a field goal preserving a 14-13 victory.  A victory until Lett inexplicitly jumped on the ball, the Dolphins recovered, and had an unexpected shot at redemption.  The Dolphins made the kick the second time around and escaped with a 16-14 victory.  What made the game even more interesting is that the 9-2 Dolphins would not win another game that season and missed the playoffs.  The Cowboys would not lose another game and would go on to capture their second straight Super Bowl in the Jimmy Johnson era. 

4) November 26, 1998 Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) - at Detroit Lions (4-7) - It's Heads.  It's Tails.  Wait, what did you say?  Another game that is famous for reasons other than the play on the field.  Teams always used to call the coin while it was being flipped in the air.  After Jerome Bettis and the official could not get on the same page, the ball was unjustly given to Detroit.  Detroit won the game 19-16.  Neither team would win another game that season.  The bizarre overtime result led to a rule change in the offseason requiring the player to make the call prior to the coin being flipped. 

5) November 26, 1998 Minnesota Vikings (10-1) - at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) - How can a player make a name for himself with 3 catches?  When those catches go for 163 yards and 3 touchdowns it doesn't take long.  Randy Moss was a rookie.  Moss's breakout game had come on Monday Night against the Packers back in Week 5 with 5 catches for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns.   This was supposed to be the showdown of the millennium, Prime Time vs. Randy Moss.  Prime Time didn't play, Randy was Randy, and the rest was history.  The Vikings won 46-36.  The game started a 4 game stretch where the Vikings had a scoring average of 45.5 points per game.  The Vikings would finish the season 15-1, but would lose the title game to Atlanta, 30-27 in Overtime.  While the Cowboys went on to win the division at 10-6, they would lose at home to the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs. 

So what is your favorite Thanksgiving Day Game?  Is there any game that sticks out in your mind over the years?   Where will you be watching your Holiday Football?  I probably won't get to answer a lot of these over the holidays, but still let me and the rest of the board know your thoughts.  Where ever you are going to spend the holidays, have a Happy Thanksgiving.