This is my third of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC South was among the most competitive divisions in the NFL. The Colts finished with the 2nd best record in the AFC at 13-3. The Jaguars were one of the hottest teams in the NFL to close the season and won an epic playoff game in Pittsburgh. The Titans made the playoffs as the AFC’s 6th seed. Finally, the Texans had their first .500 season in the history of their franchise. With so many talented teams the AFC South figures to be a slugfest again in 2008.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC South.
1) Jacksonville Jaguars 07 Record: 11-5 Points Scored: 411 (6th) Points Allowed: 304 (10th) Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 143-113 (.559) (3rd in NFL)
Strengths: The 2007 Jaguars looked to be in disarray before Week 1 even began. The first team offense was not performing in the preseason and Jack Del Rio decided that the Jaguars needed to go in a different direction at quarterback. He released Byron Leftwich and turned the quarterback reigns over to David Garrard. Garrard responded by posting the third highest QB rating in the NFL with a 102.2. He threw an amazing 18 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions.
While the Jaguars started slowly with a 5-3 record, they won 6 of their last 8 games and became the first team to win 2 games in Pittsburgh in the same season, including their epic 31-29 victory in the NFL Wildcard Round. The Jaguars played the Patriots tough in New England, but ultimately fell to the Patriots 31-20.
While Garrard played at a very high level, the strength of the Jaguars offense was clearly the running game. Fred Taylor earned his first Pro Bowl appearance, as he was selected as the alternate. He rushed for 1,202 yards. Maurice Jones-Drew also had a solid campaign, rushing for 768 yards and racking up 407 receiving yards. He had 9 rushing touchdowns. That combo gave the Jags the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFL, second only to the Minnesota Vikings.
The Jags also did very well on defense. They finished 11th in rushing yards allowed, 15th in passing yards allowed, and 10th in points allowed. The Jags allowed less than 20 points in 10 of their 16 contests. They also ranked 4th in the NFL with 20 interceptions and 9th in the NFL with sacks at 36.
However, they weren’t able to generate that same production against the more explosive offenses in the NFL. The Patriots, Colts, Steelers, and Saints were able to torch the Jaguars. They averaged 30 points per game in 6 contests. If the Jaguars are going to make the jump to the elite level of the NFL they will have to force more turnovers and sacks on defense against the elite NFL offenses.
Weaknesses: The Jaguars had two main weaknesses in 2007. First, their receiver production was unacceptable. Earnest Wilford led the receivers and tight ends in receptions with 45. Dennis Northcutt led the receivers and tight ends with 629 yards. That production is not acceptable from a NFL receiving core.
David Garrard should be better just from having completed his first season as the Jaguars number one guy. The Jaguars also made a number of improvements in the receiving core. They allowed Wilford to go to Miami. They replaced him with Jerry Porter who looks for a fresh start coming from Oakland. They also acquired Troy Williamson from the Minnesota Vikings.
Neither have been productive in recent years do the quarterback situations they had with their respective clubs. Jerry Porter has proven he can put up numbers if given a solid quarterback. Williamson has proven nothing, other than that he can drop balls while in the open. If either of those guys can emerge as a go to target and Reggie Williams can duplicate his 10 touchdown catches from 2007, and Mercedes Lewis can continue to improve; the Jags should be able to generate more offense in their passing game.
Regardless the Jaguars had big guys at receiver that didn’t possess breakaway speed. Adding Porter and Williamson was huge in the fact that it gives them a more speed and a more diverse receiving core.
The other area the Jags needed to improve was putting pressure on the quarterback. The Jags had 36 sacks, which ranked 9th. That is a little misleading. Their leading sacker on defense, Paul ####er recorded 8 sacks. Also consider that the Jags recorded 16 less sacks than the league leading New York Giants, but recorded only 5 more sacks than 19th ranked New Orleans. There was not a lot of separation from 10 through 20 in terms of quarterback sacks.
Furthermore, The Jags must improve in that area if they want to compete against the elite offenses in the NFL. If an elite quarterback is allowed unlimited time, he will destroy the best coverage units in the NFL. In 2007 the Jags just didn’t have that one player on their defense that offensive coordinators spend time game planning against to keep away from their quarterback.
They made that their number one priority in the NFL draft. They moved up to the 8th pick in the draft and selected Derrick Harvey. They also selected Quentin Groves out of Auburn. He is a player that can play both defensive end and linebacker. Both players should help the defensive front put pressure on Peyton Manning and the other elite quarterbacks on their schedule. The Jaguars will need those players to contribute immediately to make up for the losses of Marcus Stroud, Grady Jackson, and Bobby McCray. Also, don’t be surprised if the Jaguars don’t continue to pursue Jason Taylor via a trade. There is clearly a riff between Taylor and the Dolphins front office and while a trade will not be as easy to make as prior to the draft, I would not rule that move out. He would be a huge addition to the Jags defensive line.
Prediction: I think this is finally the year the Jaguars put everything together. Fred Taylor is 32, but has not been worn out in recent years with the emergence of Jones-Drew. He should still have another couple good years left in him. The two form one of the premier running back duos in the NFL.
I expect David Garrard to be more effective in his second year as the full time starter. It will also help him to have Jerry Porter. Porter has a lot of talent and needed a change of scenery. While he alone doesn’t make this one of the top-receiving units in the NFL, he doesn’t have to. It just needs to have the respect of the NFL defenses. They have more speed this year and should be able to stretch defenses and gain more yards through the air.
The fact is that the Jaguars had a good offense last year. They averaged 30.4 points per game in their last 10 games of the season and averaged 25.5 points per game in their 2-playoff games. This team has come a long way since 2005 when they averaged 22.6 points per game and were held to 3 points in their Wildcard Round loss to New England. Garrard gave them another dimension in the passing game and should benefit from having started a full season. This is his first offseason knowing that he has the job.
They key for me was what the Jaguars did in the postseason and what they did in the draft. This is a team that needed to do well in the postseason to prove to themselves they could play with the top powers in the AFC. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and played the Patriots tough in New England. The one thing they came away with was that they needed to put more pressure on the QB. That was addressed this offseason, even though they didn’t acquire Jason Taylor.
I didn’t like the fact that they gave up 7 picks to get their two top picks. In the long run that could come back to haunt them and could be key for the Baltimore rebuilding effort. What I did like is they added two players that can put pressure on the quarterback and will have a solid system and players to help them do that. These guys don’t need to save the defense. They need to use their strengths to put them over the top.
The Jaguars do have a tough schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage, but some of that is deceiving. I think they made a lot more improvements than Tennessee and Houston. They don’t have to play the Patriots or the Chargers, two teams the Colts face. They draw Denver and Buffalo instead. The NFC North is a division with some question marks. Brett Favre retiring means the Packers are probably not a 13-3 team in 2008 and while the Vikings appear to be on the rise, the Lions and Bears have a lot of questions. While Pittsburgh and Cleveland will offer challenging games, Baltimore and Cincinnati should not be very difficult.
What this means is that I think Jacksonville is in position to unseat the Indianapolis Colts as division champs. Furthermore, I look for them and New England to have the best records in the AFC, with the Jags winning the Conference’s Number 1 seed.
Jacksonville Jaguar’s Record: 13-3 – AFC South Divisional Champion; AFC #1 Seed
2) Indianapolis Colts 07 Record: 13-3 Points Scored: 450 (3rd) Points Allowed: 262 (1st) Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 152-104 (.594) (2nd in NFL)
Strengths: The Colts have been a powerhouse on offense since 1999. Other than 2002, the Colts have ranked no worse than 4th in points scored and no worse than 5th in yards gained. The leader of the offense since 1998 has been Peyton Manning. He has posted a 4,000 yard passing season 8 of his first 10 seasons in the league and has posted consecutive 31 touchdown pass seasons in 2006 and 2007. Last season was his first season where he failed to break the 100.0 rating since 2003. He still had a solid 98.0. His first 10 years in the league have been as productive as any quarterback in the history of the NFL.
The Colts have always had great wide receivers. Last year Marvin Harrison was injured for most of the season. Reggie Wayne stepped to the forefront as the team’s number one wide receiver. He posted 104 catches for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns. Dallas Clark also had a stellar year with 58 catches for 616 yards and 11 touchdowns. Joseph Addai added balance to the running game with 1072 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns to go with his 41 receptions for 364 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. Anthony Gonzalez showed promise as a rookie. The Colts may need a bigger contribution if Marvin Harrison’s legal problems spill into the regular season. While that situation is bizarre at this point it does not appear to be a major issue given Marvin’s strong track record in regards to personal conduct and the information from the investigation that has been made public. I am much more concerned that Marvin Harrison is turning 36 years old and coming off an injury plagued season. He must show that the injuries that plagued him in 2007 are behind him.
The Colts have excellent depth at running back. Kenton Keith had a solid year filling in for Addai and Dominick Rhodes is back with the Colts after playing for the Raiders last season. He is familiar with the offense and should provide good depth behind Addai. Unlike their 2006 Super Bowl season when the Colts ranked 23rd in points allowed, 21st in yards allowed, and 32nd in rushing yards allowed; the 2007 Colts were one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The 2007 Colts ranked 1st in points allowed, 3rd in yards allowed, and 15th in rushing yards allowed. Bob Sanders was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The Colts were ranked 2nd in interceptions with 22.
Weaknesses: The Colts are a veteran roster that has won 12 games or more every year since 2003. That is an amazing accomplishment. Still, they do have some question marks headed into the 2008 campaign.
The Colts were not able to put a lot of pressure on the quarterback last season. Their twenty eight quarterback sacks ranked 26th in the NFL. Part of that was due to the season ending injury suffered by Dwight Freeney in the Patriots game. If he is able to comeback healthy the Colts should be able to improve in that department. Still, the Colts are a small defensive unit that is built for speed over strength. They have to rank in the top part of the league in sacks if they are going to justify being that small. If they are giving up a lot of rushing yards and failing to register sacks that is not a good combination.
Losing Jake Scott was also a big loss. He has started 16 games at guard every year since 2005. Not only did they lose him, but also they lost him to a division rival in Tennessee. The Colts did a good job at replacing the retired left tackle Tarik Glenn with Tony Ugoh last season. They will need to do the same thing this season.
The other area the Colts need to worry about is depth at the receiver and tight end positions. Ben Utecht was lost to the Cincinnati Bengals. Bryan Fletcher will have to assume a bigger role in 2008. Other than Harrison and Wayne the Colts lack proven talent at wide receiver. Gonzalez and Moorhead will have to step up their contributions in 2008, especially if Harrison is not at full strength.
The Colts did not have a first round pick, so they were not able to upgrade any of those areas in the draft with a top prospect. They will need to do what they have been so good at since 2003. They need to improve from within and hope that they hit some homeruns in the later rounds of this year’s draft.
Prediction: I think the Colts window is slowly starting to close. Drafting so late since 2003 will do that to any team. They are in good shape at running back and while Peyton Manning is 32 years old, he is showing no signs of slowing down. Marvin Harrison is starting to get up there in age, Tony Dungy appears to be nearing the end of his coaching career with the Colts, and it is uncertain that the Colts have the talent in place on defense to maintain their stellar showing last season.
The other difficult thing for the Colts is the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL. It is brutal. They play the Patriots, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars twice. Those are five of the toughest games you could ask for. They also face Green Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Tennessee twice. Those teams aren’t nearly as good as the first list, but still very formidable opponents.
I think the Jaguars are closing the gap and the main difference between the clubs was Peyton Manning. While the Jaguars are never going to be better than the Colts in that regard, I think they have closed the gap and are poised to overtake the Colts in a very competitive division. That said, the Colts are extremely talented on offense and have a good enough defense to win a lot of games. I think the Colts still get to 12 wins this season and secure the top wild card position.
Indianapolis Colt’s Record: 12-4 – AFC South 2nd Place; AFC #5 Seed
3) Tennessee Titans 07 Record: 10-6 Points Scored: 301 (22nd) Points Allowed: 297 (8th) Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round 2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.520) (9th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Tennessee Titans were a surprise team in 2007. Despite adding little at the skill positions and having an offense that struggled to score points, Vince Young was able to manage the offense in only his second year. Behind a defense that was very stingy against the run, the Titans won 10 games and sneaked into the playoffs on the last day. That good fortune was partly the result of the Bengals upsetting the Browns in Week 16 and partly the result of the Colts resting all their players on the final game of the season Regardless, the Titans progressed very well in year 2 of the Vince Young era and played San Diego tough in the wild card round. They belonged on that stage.
The Titans allowed only 92.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked 5th in the NFL. A major reason for that was Albert Haynesworth. He is currently the team’s franchise player and has yet to work out a long-term deal with the club. A training camp holdout may be in the future. This is big for the Titans, because this was not the same team without him. They gave up over 30 points a game in Weeks 10-13, including 35 points to the Cincinnati Bengals. All three games were losses and almost kept the Titans out of the playoffs.
The Titans also ranked 10th in passing yards allowed at just 199.2 passing yards allowed per game. They were excellent at putting pressure on the quarterback with 40 sacks, which ranked 7th in the NFL. If Javon Kearse can stay healthy he should help them increase that number in 2008. Their 22 interceptions tied the Colts for 2nd in the NFL.
On offense the Titans had an excellent rushing attack. The Titans ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, led by LenDale White’s 1,110 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns. Jake Scott was an excellent signing at guard and could help them open up even bigger holes in their running attack. It will be interesting to see how speedster Chris Johnson will fit into the Titans rotation. They also have speedster Chris Henry, who saw limited time in 2007.
Weaknesses: The one are the Titans struggled with was the passing game. That was the main reason the Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in scoring. Vince Young had a very poor season in that regard. Vince Young ranked 26th in QB rating with a 71.1. His 9 touchdown passes ranked tied for 24th. His 17 interceptions were tied for 7th, despite the fact that he only threw 382 passes. Jon Kitna led the league with 20 intercpetions, but threw the ball 561 times. Young threw an interception once every 22.5 pass attempts. While he is a great leader and has all the intangible things needed from a star NFL quarterback, he has to improve his passing numbers if the Titans are going to advance deeper in the playoffs.
Part of that problem was the targets that Vince Young had in 2007. Roydell Williams and Justin Gage were their leading receivers. They both had 55 catches. Gage got the better in receiving yards with 750 to 719, while Williams had 4 touchdown catches to Gage’s 2 touchdown catches. There are quite a few teams that got better production out of their #3 receiver. If Vince Young is going to take the next step, the Titans have to get some playmakers around him.
The problem is they didn’t add any playmakers. I thought the Titans did very well in free agency, but failed to upgrade their receiving core in the draft. If the Titans fail to improve on their 2007 season, I think they will look back to their failure to add playmakers in the draft. The best receiver they added was Lavelle Hawkins, who the Titans selected in the 4th round out of California. The transition from college to the NFL is very tough for a receiver and it is doubtful he will make a huge impact in his first season.
Prediction: The Titans have a very difficult road in 2008. The Jaguars made a lot of improvements in the draft and free agency and the Colts have a very high-powered offense. The Titans went 2-2 against the top of the division in 2007. One of those wins was on the final day when the Colts backups hung in against the Titan starters until the final minutes. It is difficult to see that they have caught up with Indy and Jacsonville given the events of the offseason. They also play Pittsburgh and Cleveland, which could be tough as well.
I messed up on this team last year, because I didn’t respect their defense and running game enough. I picked them to finish under .500 and last in the division. The Titans are among the best in the league in those areas and that should be enough to win a lot of games. They were able to win without a potent passing game in 2007, and I am not going to let that fool me in 2008.
That said, I don’t see how they did enough to pass Jacksonville and Indianapolis and as the 6th seed. They finished tied with Cleveland in 2007, so it isn’t like they had much room to spare. Cleveland has made a lot of improvements in the offseason. I think the Titans finish 9-7 in 2008 and fight it out with Cleveland for that last playoff spot. This season I think the Browns get the better end of that deal.
Tennessee Titan’s Record: 9-7 – AFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs
Strengths: Imagine how the Colts would have done in 2007 had Joseph Addai missed 11 starts, Marvin Harrison had missed 7 starts, and Peyton Manning had missed 5 starts? That is what happened to the Texans with Schaub, Green, and Johnson.
Now, I’m not saying that the Texans trio is on par with what the Colts have in Indy. What I am saying is that the Texans did very well to score 379 points and finish 12th in the NFL in scoring despite having their starting quarterback, number one receiver, and number one running back missing significant time. When you combine that with the division they played in it is amazing that they finished 8-8.
If the Texans are going to compete in this division, they are going to have to keep those guys healthy. That is going to be a difficult task. Andre Johnson has already had offseason knee surgery and will not be participating in team practices before training camp. Ahman Green is 31 years old and has not been consistently healthy and effective since 2004.
The Texans addressed their running back depth in the draft by signing Chris Brown from the Titians and selecting Steve Slaton. While his stock dropped this year, he is going into a perfect zone blocking system for his abilities. Still, the Texans ranked 22nd in rushing yards gained in 2007. If all 3 can stay healthy, the Texans have a good rotation and should be able to improve on that number.
On defense the team is still improving. Mario Williams had 14 sacks in his second season and is still 23 years old. Amobi Okoye had 5.5 sacks as a rookie defensive tackle and is just 21 years old. Those two are developing into what could be a dominant defensive line for years to come. Demeco Ryans played in his first pro bowl and is quickly becoming a solid middle linebacker. He is just 24 years old. If their young defenders continue to progress, they should be able to improve on their 22nd ranked scoring defense.
Weaknesses: The Texans have a number of areas in which they need to improve. They have a lot of good parts, but they need them to perform better in terms of the production they get from their units.
Take the pass rush. As I said earlier, Williams and Okoye is an excellent tandem. But the Texans recorded only 31.0 sacks, which ranked tied for 21st. That means those two combined for 63% of the team’s sacks. They have to get more sacks from the rest of their defensive line and linebackers. That lack of pressure also explains why the Texans finished tied for last in interceptions with 11. They drafted Antwaun Molden and Dominique Barber in the draft to help improve the secondary.
The receiving game is another example. Johnson was only 5 catches of the team lead in receptions. He had 60 receptions and Walter had 65. He led the team in receiving yards (851), and receiving touchdowns (8); despite missing 7 starts with a knee injury. They need to get more production out of their other receivers.
The offensive line is also a big concern. That was the main motivation for drafting Duane Brown, an offensive tackle out of Virginia Tech. They will need him to make an immediate impact to protect Schaub.
The Texans just need to find more consistency with their young players if they want to take the jump in this very tough division. It is hard to make strides when the other 3 teams in the division all made the playoffs last year.
Prediction: I like what the Texans are doing, but I still think they are a year away. Their good players are still very young on defense, and while they have good skill position players on offense, they need to get better blocking out of the offensive line if those players are going to realize their full potential.
The Texans have some winnable games on their schedule. They play the Dolphins and Raiders. The Lions and Bears could produce victories. Baltimore and Cincinnati are winnable. The problem is the beginning of their schedule. They play at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee in 3 of their first 4 games, with their sole home game being against Baltimore in Week 2. Then they play Indy in Week 5. They could easily be 1-4 to start the season. Then in Week 11 they begin a 4 game stretch at Indy, at Cleveland, Jacksonville, and at Green Bay on December 7th.
In the end I look for Houston to have a similar year to last season. They will play people tough and continue to improve, but they are still probably a year away from breaking through in the AFC South.
Houston Texan’s Record: 7-9 – AFC South 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
1) W/L Record: 16-0 2) Points Scored: 36.8 / game (1st) 3) Points Allowed: 17.1 / game (4th) 4) Yards Gained: 411.2 / game (1st) 5) Yards Allowed: 288.3 / game (4th)
Strengths: I could write a page worth of strengths for this team. 1) They have the best Head Coach in the NFL, 2) They have the best QB in the NFL, 3) They have the best WR in the NFL, and 4) They are exceptionally gifted in the other areas of football. This team is in the top 5 in the 4 major statistical areas and winning games by 19.7 / points per game. It’s hard to find a weakness for the first undefeated regular season since the 1972 Dolphins.
Weaknesses: There are many places to look at with an undefeated team. Of the 4 teams (Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, NY Giants, Philadelphia Eagles) that gave the Patriots a close game all four of them are in the top 10 in yards / game allowed and all have 1,000 yard running backs. If you can contain the Patriots offensive attack where you are in a position to call conservative plays you can stay with this team. While the defense is solid they are not as good as 2003 or 2004. The key is not making mistakes. It is almost impossible to beat them playing perfect. Also, while they have a good rushing attack, they are not a dominant rushing team. How will this team respond in bad Boston weather against a good team if the winter elements come into play?
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have completed arguably the best regular season in NFL history. Why would you pick against them? Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Since 1990 only the (90, 91, & 93) Buffalo Bills, 98 Denver Broncos, 02 Oakland Raiders, and 03 New England Patriots have made the Super Bowl out of the AFC as a #1 seed. Only the 98 Broncos and the 03 Patriots won the Super Bowl. Traditionally the best regular season team does not represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Furthermore there is the Indianapolis Colts. They are the only other team in the NFL that is also in the top five in all four categories. They won the Super Bowl last year. The Patriots could end up being the victim of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both the Colts and Patriots are worthy Super Bowl Champions. Only one can hoist the trophy. What would be considered a successful Postseason: With a 16-0 regular season it’s either a Super Bowl win or bust.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 50% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Seed: AFC #2 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 13-3 2) Points Scored: 28.1 / game (3rd) 3) Points Allowed: 16.4 / game (1st) 4) Yards Gained: 358.7 / game (5th) 5) Yards Allowed: 279.7 / game (3rd)
Strengths: This team is very similar to the New England Patriots in that there are very few glaring weaknesses. 1) First Ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, 2) A Pro Bowl running back, 3) The second or third best Head Coach in the NFL (Mike Shanahan has more rings), 4) Arguably the best defense in the NFL.
Weaknesses: The Colts are a middle of the pack run defense. Because they are built for speed rather that physicality they are susceptible to stopping the running game between the tackles. They are also toward the bottom of the NFL in yards per attempt allowed in the running game. Similar to the Patriots if you can keep the score close or play with a lead the opportunity to control the clock with a conservative game plan is there.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: This team won the Super Bowl last year and has a much improved defense this season. Why couldn’t they go back? Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Same as above. There is only one spot for the Patriots and the Colts. They both can’t go this season. At least one of them will be sitting home in January. What would be considered a successful Postseason: Same as the Patriots. The Colts won the Super Bowl last year and have a much better defense this year. It’s the Super Bowl or bust. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 30% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------- Team: San Diego Chargers
Seed: AFC #3 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 11-5 2) Points Scored: 25.8 / game (5th) 3) Points Allowed: 17.8 / game (5th) 4) Yards Gained: 315.2 / game (20th) 5) Yards Allowed: 320.2 / game (14th)
Strengths: This team has the best running back in football. LT is simply amazing. 1500 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving, and 15-20 touchdowns are the norm for this future First Ballot Hall of Famer. The defense isn’t bad either ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. This is a defense that relies on the big play. They are 1st in interceptions, 3rd in fumbles recovered, and 5th in the NFL in sacks. The one thing that teams have been able to do is run the football against the Colts and Patriots if the score permits it. This team would seem to have the best personal in place to give the frontrunners fits in that department.
Weaknesses: This team just wasn’t very good against teams with winning records. The Chargers were 2-4 against the six toughest teams on their schedule: (New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Tennessee). These are the six teams that either made the playoffs or were in contention until the final week. The reason for this is that the Chargers are a high risk / high reward defense. They rely on forcing turnovers and sacks. While that is fine and good against Oakland and Kansas City, it is much harder against Hall of Fame QBs like Brady and Favre. The Chargers were outscored 118-166 in those 6 games. The Chargers beat the Colts, but Manning threw 6 interceptions in their loss and the Colts missed an extra point length field goal that would have won the game. Are we to expect 6 interceptions in a potential second round rematch? The Titans gave up 14 points in the final 7 minutes of regulation to allow the game to get to OT where the Titans lost the game. Furthermore, the Chargers have lost their opening home playoff game in 2004 and 2006. The main question the Chargers face entering the playoffs is whether their record is the result of a weak AFC West and second half schedule or whether this team is finally ready to take the next step. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: LT. LT is good enough to put the Chargers on his back and carry them to the Promised Land. Furthermore, the Chargers have the offensive and defensive balance necessary to win playoff games. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Norv Turner and the passing game. While Marty was let go because he couldn’t win the big game, Turner hasn’t won enough regular season games to take a run at that title. Until Turner proves he can win big games that will be the Giant Elephant in the room. The other concern is the same as last year. Can the Chargers win with this passing game? It ranks 26th this season. It couldn’t overcome that problem last year and was ranked 16th. In addition to the yardage drop Rivers is throwing more picks. Rivers will have to win a game for the Chargers at some point this postseason. The Chargers will go as far as he can take them. He hasn’t proven to date that he is capable of taking them anywhere near the Super Bowl.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: While this team has not played in an AFC Championship Game in recent years they were 14-2 last year. This team had Super Bowl hopes at the beginning of the year. A one and done is unacceptable. They really need to win a game if not two to be happy with their progress from last season.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 5% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Seed: AFC #4 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 24.6 / game (9th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 16.8 / game (2nd) 4) Yards Gained: 327.4 / game (17th) 5) Yards Allowed: 266.4 / game (1st)
Strengths: This team ranks in the top 5 in both yards allowed and points allowed. They aren’t called Blitzburgh for nothing. The Steelers pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the NFL. They also have a fantastic running attack that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL. Furthermore, Big Ben eclipsed the 30-touchdown pass mark this season. That has been due to his vast improvement over last season and the respect people have for the running game, which makes the play action passing deadly. The Steelers have as explosive an offense as they have ever had. Maintaining balance in the rushing and passing game will be huge.
Weaknesses: The Steelers used to be a great road team. They won the Super Bowl as a 6 seed in 2005. However, they just haven’t been a very good road team this season. They are 3-5 on the road in 2007 and 1-4 on the road outside of their division games. They lost to the lowly Jets. Their only road win outside of the division was at St Louis. That game was competitive well into the 4th quarter. The question every Steelers fan has to be asking him or her self is whether the Steelers can travel to both Indy and New England and win a road playoff game. Also the Jags, Rams, and Ravens have had a lot of success running the ball on the Steelers at the close of the season. Since losing Aaron Smith this run defense has tanked. The other area of concern is whether the Steelers will be able to use that play action passing attack to its full capability without the services of Willie Parker. The Steelers just aren’t healthy entering the playoffs. That is a recipe for disaster. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: Statistically, this team is sound in the passing and running game on both offense and defense. They have great balance. Furthermore, they are the only AFC team outside of the Colts and Patriots that have a Super Bowl winning QB. That experience could be huge in the playoffs.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They have the toughest draw outside of Jacksonville. They will probably have to beat Jacksonville, New England, and Indy in succession to make the Super Bowl. Once there Dallas or Green Bay probably waits for them. Furthermore, two of those games will be on the road, a place the Steelers have not fared well this season. The Super Bowl is still a neutral site. The Steelers are dinged up and haven’t been playing their best ball in the second half of the season. While losing to Baltimore with starters out isn’t troubling not playing a great game since Week 9 is troubling.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: When you win the Super Bowl in 2005 people expect you to still compete for that honor in 2007. Given their injury situation and inability to win on the road I think a first round playoff victory and a competitive second round game would make for a successful postseason campaign.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 4% -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Seed: AFC #5 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 11-5 2) Points Scored: 25.7 / game (6th) 3) Points Allowed: 19.0 / game (10th) 4) Yards Gained: 357.4 (7th) 5) Yards Allowed: 313.8 / game (12th) Strengths: Run Defense and Run Offense. The Jaguars are the second best rushing offense in the NFL and have a top 10 run defense unit. That was also the case last season. The difference between 06 and 07 has been the passing game. Garrard has only 3 interceptions this season. He also has 18 touchdown passes. Gray chipped in with 10 touchdown passes. The days of the Jags being inept in the passing offense is over. This team can beat people both on the ground and through the air. Weaknesses: The wide receiver spot. The Jaguars leading receiver has less than 650 receiving yards. The only teams since 1990 to win the Super Bowl without a 1,000 yard receiver are the 1990 Giants, 1996 Packers, 2000 Ravens, 2003 & 2004 Patriots. The Jags don’t have Brett Favre or Tom Brady in his prime so cross those teams off the list. The 2000 Ravens were 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed led by Ray Lewis. The 1990 NY Giants were also 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed led by the original LT. While the Jags have a great defense, they aren’t at that level. It remains to be seen if the Jags can win with so few playmakers at the wide receiver and tight end position.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: Any team that can run the football, stop the run, and take care of the football has a chance to do big things in the postseason. They play in the toughest division in the NFL and have played a lot of tough teams. They have won at Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. All three are playoff teams. They also won at Arrowhead and the Mile High City. Those places are traditionally among the toughest venues in the NFL. This team has the make up and the personality to win tough road playoff games.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They will have probably have to win at Pittsburgh, New England, and Indy who were a combined 22-2 at home this season. Also, while they are a good story, they went 0-2 against Indy. They were beaten badly at New Orleans. While the Jags rank 4th in interceptions they also rank 15th in pass yards allowed. If you can keep the front 7 out of the pocket and avoid the big mistakes there are plays to be made. That’s why the Jags struggle against Indy. When the Jags play against an explosive passing offense that can protect the QB they struggle to score enough points to win those types of games. They just aren’t built to win shootouts or come from behind, which is hard when Indy and New England wait later in the playoffs.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: This team definitely has to feel it must win the first game. However, when you consider that Garrard will be making his first playoff start compared to the 4 rings of Brady and Manning you have to wonder how realistic it is to expect the Super Bowl. The goal will be to play better than the 28-3 domination they experienced in New England a couple years ago. If they can win a first round game and play well in the second round, that will be a successful 2007 run for the Jags.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 10% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Team: Tennessee Titans
Seed: AFC #6 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 18.8 / game (22nd) 3) Points Allowed: 18.6 / game (8th) 4) Yards Gained: 311.7 / game (21st) 5) Yards Allowed: 291.6 / game (5th)
Strengths: This is a very good defensive unit. They are extremely difficult to run against in between the tackles, they tackle very well, and they put pressure on the quarterback. Their defense would rank a lot higher if Haynesworth were not injured for 3 games when the Titans looked horribly average on defense. Also even though they don’t have an LT or LJ type running back they do rank 5th in the NFL in rushing offense. When you combine a strong defense, good running game, and excellent head coach you have an opportunity to win close games. The Titans are 6-3 in games decided by 7 points or less.
Weaknesses: This team is too one-dimensional. While they are a top 10 defense they are a bottom 10 offense. The offense ranks 27th in passing yards. Vince Young has a very pedestrian 71.1 QB rating. He has only 4 games where he had more touchdowns than interceptions. He has 11 games where he threw for less than 200 yards. While he is a great leader and has a lot of intangibles there just isn’t enough production in the passing department to suggest the Titans will be able to make a serious challenge for the Lombardi Trophy. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: Vince Young is a player that defies the statistics. Even though the stats show he should be a 4 or 5 win QB he manages to win 10 games. The Titans stop the run, run the ball, and play good defense. When you watch his Rose Bowl Performance it is hard to bet against him in a big spot. Also they beat the Jags and split against the Colts. When the Colts played all their players they lost by 2 points. They can keep games close until the 4th quarter and the 4th quarter is when Vince Young comes alive. Even if he is too injured to play Kerry Collins has played in a Super Bowl and can make enough plays to keep the Titans afloat. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Even though the Titans are 5-3 on the road it is hard to imagine this team going into Indy or New England and scoring enough points to win those games.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: The Titans have to be thrilled to have Vince Young in the playoffs. This experience will benefit him in the future. If the Titans can play well against the Chargers it will be a positive step forward. A win and everything else is icing on the cake.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 1% -------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
Let me know your thoughts on the AFC Playoff Picture. Check out my NFC Playoff Predictions for the NFC Playoff Pictture and my Super Bowl Prediction.
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan that now loves the Jets. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
In addition to this blog I am also a writer for the Fantasy Football Maniaxs. It is quite an honor to be writing with a group of knowledgeable football fanatics. The address is http://www.fa ntasyfootball maniaxs.com. I hope you enjoy the blog.
