This is my second of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC East is probably the most competitive division headed into the 2008 season. The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Dallas Cowboys won 13 games and had the number one seed in the NFC. The Redskins won their last 4 games to make the playoffs as the final wildcard. Finally, the Eagles finished strong and were a very dangerous 8-8 team at the end of the season that did not qualify for the postseason. The only other division that has a claim to being as competitive as the NFC East would be the AFC South, which also had 3 teams qualify for the playoffs in 2007.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)Dallas Cowboys
07 Record: 13-3
Points Scored: 455 (2nd)
Points Allowed: 325 (13th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule:134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Dallas Cowboys had a very impressive start to their 2007 season. In their first 13 games they went 12-1 with their only loss being to the New England Patriots. In their first 12 games they outscored their opponents 395-248, or by an average of 12.25 points per game. After their 37-27 victory against 10-1 Green Bay they looked poised to be the NFC favorite to take on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, things didn’t go according to plan. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games and were outscored 60-77. Then the Cowboys were upset in the playoffs, by the eventual champion NY Giants, 21-17. It was a very disappointing end to a season that looked destined to end with a Super Bowl appearance.
The Cowboys had a load of talent on their roster in 2007. They sent a record 11 players to the Pro Bowl, 7 of which were starters. The number one strength on the Cowboys was the offensive line. 3 of their 7 Pro Bowl starters came from that unit, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode. With Tony Romo given plenty of time to throw the ball and the numerous great weapons they had on offense the Cowboys put up points with great ease. Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns in his first full year starting. Jason Witten had a career year at tight end with 96 catches for 1145 yards and 7 touchdowns. Terrell Owens had 81 catches for 1355 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marion Barber posted 975 rushing yards and 282 receiving yards to go along with his 12 touchdowns. Nick Folk made the Pro Bowl as the NFC Kicker.
What it adds up to is an offense that dominated the NFC. Furthermore, their only key loss on offense was Julius Jones, who signed with Seattle. The Cowboys have taken care of that loss. They added RB Felix Jones in the first round and TE Martellus Bennett to play opposite Witten in the second round.
The only need the Cowboys did not address this season was wide receiver. TO is still an elite NFL receiver, but he is going to be 35 years old. Terry Glenn was hurt until the final game of the season. He is going to be 34. Patrick Crayton had a solid year filling in for Glenn, but still has a ways to go.
It is obvious the Cowboys would be in trouble if TO missed significant time. Teams don’t have backups that can produce at the same level as him. He is an elite wide receiver. Still without him in the lineup they go from scary to below average at the receiver position. He must find a way to stay healthy and play as close to 16 games as possible, something he hasn’t done since 2001.
Weaknesses: The defense was the major issue with the Cowboys in 2007. The Cowboys had a great front 7. They were able to finish 6th in rushing yards allowed. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware was named a starter to the Pro Bowl. He had 14 sacks. That was another area the Cowboys excelled at, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks. They also did well forcing turnovers. The Cowboys finished 6th in the NFL with 19 picks. Ken Hamlin and Terrance Newman were chosen as Pro Bowl reserves. Both started for the Cowboys in their secondary.
What the Cowboys didn’t do is stop the pass very well. They finished 13th in the league in that regard. As a result of the yards they gave up in the passing game and the 19 interceptions that Tony Romo threw the Cowboys gave up 20.3 points per game, which ranked 13th. For all the great plays Tony Romo makes he needs to cut down on the interceptions if the Cowboys are going to be playing February football.
I’m not saying the Cowboys were horrible on defense. They did a lot of things well and their weaknesses are not that bad in the whole scheme of things. However, if the Cowboys want to reach their desired destination as Super Bowl Champions, they need to sure up those areas.
The Cowboys tried to do that this offseason. They made their second first round pick a corner in Michael Jenkins. They also traded for PacMan Jones. If he can stay out of trouble and gain reinstatement from the NFL, he should be able to help this team. The signing of Zach Thomas could be big as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice veteran presence in the middle of the Cowboy’s Defense.
Prediction: It is either the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. The Cowboys have made the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. As an organization, they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Combined with the talent they bring back and the new talent they acquired via 2 first round draft picks, Zach Thomas, and PacMan Jones; expectations will be through the roof. Chemistry will be a big issue in 2008. While the talent of the Cowboys is not questioned, how that talent will interact in the locker room still is. Also Tony Romo needs to cut down on his distractions off the field. There is nothing wrong with him using his celebrity to his advantage, but it shouldn’t be spilling onto the football field. He has to minimize those things as much as possible.
The Cowboys always have a brutal divisional schedule. They get 4 playoff games in the division and the Philadelphia Eagles who beat them at the end of last season in Dallas. Their out of conference schedule appears to be a little tougher than 2007. While the Patriots and Packers were very tough, those were the only two-playoff teams they faced outside the division. This year they get Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is difficult to say if those teams will be as good in 2008 as they were a year ago. Pittsburgh and Cleveland also provide some competitive games. I think the Cowboys will have roughly the same record as they did in 2007, but I don’t expect them to jump out to the 12-1 start they did a year ago. If the Cowboys can cut down on their turnovers and stop the pass better in 2008, there is no reason this team will not finish as the NFC’s number one seed for the second year in a row.
2008 Strength of Schedule:133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the division since 2000. The Eagles have won the division 5 times and made the playoffs 6 times. Prior to 2007 the Eagles had missed the playoffs only once, which was in 2005 during the season of the TO circus.
However, last season the Eagles finished in last place in the NFC East and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Still the Eagles had a number of good things working for them. Most last place teams finish 4-12, not 8-8. The Eagles finished the season strong and had it not been for a 3 game losing streak to end November and begin December the Eagles could have made the playoffs.
On offense, Brian Westbrook quietly had a 2,104 all-purpose yard season. He also scored 12 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback was coming off a serious knee injury in 2006 and the Eagles did not have a dominant receiving core; Westbrook should be applauded for his productivity in 2007. He is the most complete running back in the NFL not name LT.
Donovan McNabb did fairly well coming back from knee surgery. He started 14 games and had 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to go with his 89.9 QB rating. Kevin Curtis and McNabb had good chemistry at times. Curtis was able to finish with 1,110 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.
However, as usual the main strength of the Eagles was their defense. Under Jimmy Johnson the Eagles have been a mainstay in the top rankings of the NFL’s defenses. The Eagles 300 points allowed ranked 9th in the NFL. They also ranked 10th in yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. Trent Cole registered 12.5 sacks.
Weaknesses: The Eagles had 3 main weaknesses in 2007. The first was a lack of quality playmakers. Other than Brian Westbrook, there is no one on the Eagles that keeps defensive coordinators up into all hours of the night game planning.
Some will point to Kevin Curtis and suggest that he has the potential to be a number one receiver as evidenced by his 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is blindly looking at stats and not looking at how they were obtained. In week 3 Curtis had the game of his life. He had 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means in the other 15 games he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and 1 touchdown every 5 games. That just is not acceptable from a number one receiver. Reggie Brown also regressed in 2007. He went from 8 touchdowns in 2006 to 4 in 2007 and his yards dropped from 816 to 780. He did not have the breakout year he was hoping for. The Eagles did add DeShaun Jackson to provide depth in the return game and at the 3rd receiver spot. However, they were not able to obtain that impact wide receiver this offseason.
The second problem was their return team. The fumbles they had in punt return game against Green Bay alone cost them that game. They needed to find a quality return man as Westbrook is to valuable to risk injury at that position. Jackson should be an immediate impact in that regard.
The final weakness was in the secondary. The Eagles ranked 18th in yards allowed and their defense finished tied for last in the NFL in interceptions with just 11. Part of that was due to the rash of injuries they suffered in their secondary at the beginning of the season. That was the motivation for landing the prize of the 2008 free agency period in Samuel. He is a great playmaker that should fit into the Eagles secondary. If Brown, Shepherd, and Dawkins can stay healthy the Eagles have the potential to make a lot more plays in the secondary. It will also give Jimmy Johnson more flexibility to blitz knowing he has the secondary to cover the receivers in one-on-one coverage. That should be a big boost for the Eagles in their team sack numbers.
Prediction: The problem with picking the Eagles to do anything is you never know if Donovan McNabb is going to play a whole season. 2004 is the last season he stayed healthy. Since then he has missed 15 of a possible 48 games with injury. If he is not able to play 13-16 games it is difficult to imagine that the Eagles have the necessary parts in place to survive in a brutal NFC East.
Regardless, you can always count on Andy Reid and Jimmy Johnson to keep the Eagles ship steady and that starts with their strong defense. I don’t see McNabb returning to his 2004 numbers. I don’t believe the Eagles have the offensive weapons in place to do so. However, they don’t need him to do that. If he could just get back to his 2000 and 2001 production when he threw in the low 3,000 yard range and low 20 touchdown range the Eagles should be in great shape, given the emergence of Brian Westbrook as an elite NFL playmaker and a defense that is capable of stopping people. Donovan McNabb completing passes and taking care of the ball is enough for this team to win. That is something he is very good at as his interceptions per attempt is one of the best in NFL history. He started to look more like his old self at the end of the season.
Last year was expected, as he was coming off a serious ACL tear. Now that he is one year removed, he should be able to relax more, play with more confidence, and take the Eagles back to the playoffs. While I don’t believe they have enough offensive weapons to win the division, I would think that 10 wins are well within their reach.
Philadelphia Eagle’s Record: 10-6 – NFC East 2nd Place; NFC #5 Seed
3)New York Giants
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 373 (14th)
Points Allowed: 351 (17th)
Playoff Result: Won Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule: 133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The NY Giants were the most unlikely of Super Bowl Champions. At 10-6 they were the 5th seed in the NFC and were faced with having to win 4 games away from home. They had lost 2 of their final 3 games of the season, but seem to gain momentum with their strong performance against the Patriots in the season finale. Still #5 seeds are not supposed to win Super Bowls.
However, the Giants had gone 7-1 in the regular season on the road, losing their only road game in the opener. The NY Giants rode that road dominance to 11 straight road victories and the Super Bowl trophy.
The strength of the New York Giants is their front 4 on defense. Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Fred Robbins form one of the best defensive front fours in the entire NFL. The NY Giants generated to most pressure on the quarterback in 2007 generating an amazing 53 sacks.
At the beginning of the season the linebackers and secondary could not cover anyone. As the season progressed, the Giants got better in that regard. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster became much better at covering the pass in the second half of the season. While the Giants did lose Gibril Wilson to the Raiders in free agency, they also drafted Kenny Phillips to come into the organization and compete for the starting safety spot.
The linebacker spot is the unit on defense with the most questions. Pierce is still a strong middle linebacker and Mathias Kiwanuka should be ready for the start of the season. He was injured toward the end of the 2007 regular season. This is a unit that did not begin to gel until later in the season, but once everything came together the defense was able to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl title. Mitchell and Torbor were loss to free agency, so they will have to replace them in 2008.
On offense, the strength of the team was their running game. The NY Giants finished 4th in the NFL with a host of running backs. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns all contributed at times in 2007.
Eli Manning had a very average regular season. He had a 73.9 rating and 20 interceptions to go with his 3,336 yards passing and 23 touchdown throws. But was able to put everything together and lead his team to the Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress is a fantastic wide receiver and had 12 touchdown catches. Jeremy Shockey is a good tight end, but was the subject of trade rumors this offseason after the NY Giants offense didn’t miss a beat in the wake of his injury. He is still very talented and will help an offense that features Toomer, Smith, Tyree, and rookie Mario Manningham.
Weaknesses: The NY Giants have a couple of big question marks headed into the season. 1) Which Eli Manning is going to show up in 2008? The one that killed his team with a poor completion percentage and 20 interceptions or the one that started playing after the NY Giants lost to the Patriots in the season finale. If the Giants are going to excel in the regular season, Eli has to take care of the ball for an entire 16 game season. While I don’t expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, I don’t think he will return to his 2007 regular season numbers. I expect something in between the two. I would think that he would get 3,500 yards, 25 touchdown throws, and 12-15 interceptions.
The second question is whether Michael Strahan is going to retire or comeback for another season. Personally, I think he would be unwise to come back in 2008. He will be 37 in November and what better way to go out than win a Super Bowl in your final game. He is nowhere close to catching Bruce Smith for the NFL record in sacks and now that he is a champion he has nothing left to prove. Anything short of repeating would be a disappointing season.
If he doesn’t comeback, how is that going to affect the dynamics of the Giants front 4? Similar to the Packers who are losing Favre, there is a lot of talent in that front 7. However, because none of those players have played without Strahan, it is unclear whether or not the Giants defense will be as dominant without him. The Giants do not have a good record in recent years when he doesn’t play.
Prediction: The Giants are a difficult team to predict for 2008. They basically played 2 seasons in 2007. Week 1-15 where they turned the ball over too much and had problems stopping downfield passing offenses and Week 16 through the Super Bowl where they were difficult to move the ball against and took care of the ball. Regardless, they averaged 21.25 points per game in the postseason, so if anyone thinks this offense is going to evolve into the 2007 Patriots, I think they are going to be in shock. This is a team that is going to run the ball, take their shots downfield, and rely on their defense to win games. I think as their younger receivers develop, we may see them put a few more points on the board.
As I stated earlier, the big key is going to be the decision of Michael Strahan and whether or not he wants to return in 2008. If he does they will be a formidable opponent and will challenge the Cowboys for the division. If he doesn’t they still will be very good, but probably in the running for the final playoff spot. I don’t think he is going to comeback, and therefore I am predicting about the same record in 2008 and the #6 seed for the defending champions.
NY Giants Record:9-7 – NFC East 3rd Place; NFC #6 seed
4)Washington Redskins
07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: In 2007 the Redskins looked like a ship that was sinking fast. After a 5-3 start to the season, they lost 4 games in a row and were sitting at 5-7. Sean Taylor was tragically shot dead in his home. When the Redskins lost to the Bills largely on a timeout mishap that gave the Bills a field goal that was 15 yards closer to win the game the season looked to be lost. However, the Redskins won their last 4 games of the season guided by the veteran backup Todd Collins, they were able to sneak into the playoffs as the # 6 seed before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in what would be Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibb’s last game.
Jim Zorn is inheriting a strong cast of players. Clinton Portis was able to stay relatively healthy in 2007 and rushed for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jason Campbell was able to make good strides, despite not having much help at the receiver position. Todd Collins is a solid backup.
On defense the Redskins finished 4th against the run and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Their front 7 set the tempo for this defense. Andre Carter had 10.5 sacks.
The secondary was fairly average. LaRon Landry looks like the real deal at safety and Rodgers, Springs, and Smoot are solid corners. The Redskins ranked 16th in passing yards allowed. Some games they were brilliant, such as Tampa Bay and Detroit when they allowed less than 100 yards passing. Other games like the road games against Dallas and New England they allowed way to many yards. The Redskins will have to find a way to replace Sean Taylor in their secondary. While I hate to talk Xs and Os when there was such a human tragedy involved, the fact still remains that the Redskins were a much tougher pass defense when he was starting. Replacing a player that was as talented as he was is difficult.
Weaknesses: The Redskins really struggled to move the ball threw the air. Part of that was Jason Campbell entering his first year as the full time starter. Anytime a team puts a young quarterback in the line up there are going to be up’s and downs. However, the fact remains that he had one touchdown pass or less in 10 of his 13 starts. That number has to improve.
A lot of that has to be blamed on the receivers. Portis had 11 touchdown runs and tight end Chris Cooley caught 8 touchdowns. However, no receiver caught a touchdown until James Thrash did in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is unacceptable. The Redskins overhauled the receiver position this offseason by drafting Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas in the 2nd round. I really liked the draft approach by the Redskins to get younger and bigger at wide receiver. Both are bigger receivers and should be better targets in the redzone.
Still, rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first year. While Randy Moss exploded into the league in Year 1, even great receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne took a few years to blossom. If this unit is going to be viable in 2008, Santana Moss must step up to the plate. The Redskins have to score more than 334 points playing in a division with Dallas, New York Giants, and Philly.
Prediction: The Redskins are in the unfortunate position of being in a very tough division. Jason Campbell is a nice quarterback that in a division like the NFC North would be in the running for the best quarterback in the division or in the AFC East would be in the running for best quarterback in the division not named Tom Brady. Here he is clearly the 4th quarterback in this division. Portis may be the 3rd best back in the division. Cooley made the Pro Bowl and isn’t even the best tight end in the division. The Redskins still lack the players at the skill positions to score enough points on a consistent basis to win the tough games they will have to play in the division. I like the moves they made in the draft and graded them very high. Still, those players will take a couple years to develop.
The schedule doesn’t set up as nice for the Redskins in 2008. In addition to the division, they have to travel to Seattle and play Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home. New Orleans is going to be a tough game. When you combine that with the 6 games they play in the division and I see them taking a step back in 2008.
Washington Redskin’s Record:7-9 – NFC East 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
1) W/L Record: 13-3 2) Points Scored: 28.4 / game (2nd) 3) Points Allowed: 20.3 / game (13th) 4) Yards Gained: 365.7 / game (3rd) 5) Yards Allowed: 307.6 / game (9th)
Strengths: The Cowboys have the most Pro Bowl Players in the NFL. The strength of this team is their offensive production. They rank 2nd in points scored and 3rd in yards gained. Marion Barber and Julius Jones dominate the running game. Romo, TO, and Witten dominate the passing game. The Cowboys possess great offensive balance. The defense isn’t too bad either. They are ranked near the top in stopping the run and are a respectable 12th in points allowed.
Weaknesses: The Cowboys have a few weaknesses. They are around the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the pass. They are very similar to the Chargers in that they rely on the 3rd most sacks and 6th most picks to stop the pass. On offense they sometimes abandon the running game and the result is usually a lot of Tony Romo interceptions. It is imperative this team maintain offensive balance. They have some injury issues, mainly to TO. It is uncertain if or at what speed he will be available to play at in the postseason. Finally, the team hasn’t been playing its best ball down the stretch. In December they are 2-2 and have been outscored 60-77 in that span. This team peaked in their victory over Green Bay and has not played at a high level since. Furthermore, Romo will be starting his 2nd playoff start this season. How he responds with these expectations will be instrumental in Dallas making a successful playoff run.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have been the #1 seed in the NFC from Week 1 until Week 17. The Cowboys are great at home. They are 3-0 against the Giants and Packers this season. They played the Patriots in the regular season and will be able to make adjustments from that loss. This team has a fantastic offense. It has a great young QB in Tony Romo. It has all the pieces necessary to compete for a title. While they didn’t play well in the last 4 games, they didn’t have a lot to play for. Once they are healthy and the games matter they should be able to turn the switch back on.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: The Cowboys have allowed over 300 points which is not a good recipe for winning the Super Bowl. Since 1990 the only team to win a Super Bowl and give up more than 300 points was the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. Plus the Cowboys aren’t getting Bob Sanders back for the playoffs. The 2006 Colts led the league in touchdown passes, Manning had only 9 interceptions, and they had a plus 7 giveaway to takeaway ratio. The Cowboys have more TD passes than the Colts last season, Romo has 19 interceptions, and the Cowboys are about even in giveaways to takeaways. While the Cowboys can score in bunches they can give points up in bunches too. That could be disaster against the Packers or the Seahawks two teams whose strength is passing the football and forcing turnovers.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: After making the playoffs in 2006 and having the best record in the NFC all season it is the Super Bowl or bust.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 45% -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------
Team: Green Bay Packers
Seed: NFC #2 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 13-3 2) Points Scored: 27.2 / game (4th) 3) Points Allowed: 18.2 / game (6th) 4) Yards Gained: 370.7 / game (2nd) 5) Yards Allowed: 313.3 / game (11th)
Strengths: The Packers strength is their team balance. On offense Favre has had another MVP caliber season. Jennings and Driver are excellent targets. The Packer receivers are the best in the league after the catch. Donald Lee is giving good production at the tight end. Ryan Grant is the leading rusher in the NFL since he took over as the starter in Week 9. He has 8 rushing touchdowns. On defense, the Packers stop the run well as well as the pass. Kampan leads the league in sacks the last 2 years. Harris and Woodson form arguably the best CB duo in the NFL. Crosby has been strong on special teams. The Packers have so many ways they can beat opponents.
Weaknesses: The Packers don’t stop the tight end well. While their linebackers are solid run tacklers they are not great in pass coverage. Furthermore, the safeties are very young an inexperienced. The running game has a lot to be desired. While their 26th ranked rushing attack isn’t very accurate at this point in the season because Grant did not play the whole season, the Packers set up the run by doing well with the pass. The running game is not strong enough to carry this team if the pass is not working. Check out the Bears game in Chicago for confirmation of that. While Brett Favre has reduced the interceptions this season he still had 15 interceptions. Pressure will give the defense opportunity to make plays. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: This team has a lot good karma. A Super Bowl win would be a fitting end to a Hall of Fame career for Brett Favre. However they had that going in 2003 when Favre’s father passed away at the end of the season. That good karma resulted in only one playoff win. The difference between 03 & 04 and this year is the defense. The Packers have a terrific young defense. Outside of the Patriots and Colts, the Packers probably possess the best balance of offensive and defensive ability. They do a lot of things well and that defense gives Brett Favre and the offense a chance to win every Sunday. This young team has played oblivious to the fact that they aren’t supposed to be having this type of season. That attitude could serve them well in the playoffs.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: 0-9 in Dallas: Brett Favre has never won there. That would be their likely destination for the NFC Championship Game. Also the Packers have not been in the playoffs since 2004. While teams like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 2001 Patriots were not frequent visitors to the postseason in the 2 years before they won their Super Bowl titles NFL history proves that teams usually take a lump or two in the playoffs before securing the ultimate prize. What would be considered a successful Postseason: Seeing this team wasn’t expected to do anything at the beginning of the year, a birth in the NFC Championship Game and competitive showing against Dallas would be terrific season under normal circumstances. However with a 38-year-old QB this team can’t afford to think about next year. This team is running out of chances to send Brett out a winner. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 35% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
2007 NFL Playoff Preview
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Seed: NFC #3 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 24.6 / game (9th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 18.2 / game (6th tie) 4) Yards Gained: 348.9 / game (9th) 5) Yards Allowed: 321.8 / game (15th)
Strengths: Mike Holmgren probably did his best coaching job this season. This was a team that had relied on Shaun Alexander and the running game in past seasons. When that didn’t work this season he switched to a pass dominated offense. The result was another NFC West Title. This team forces a lot of turnovers and gets a lot of pressure on the QB. They play very well at home going 7-1 there this season. Weaknesses: Their schedule. The schedule didn’t prepare them very well for the playoffs. They were 1-1 against other playoff teams. They beat Tampa Bay 20-6 at home in the opener and lost at Pittsburgh 21-0 in Week 5. That means they played 11 straight games against non-playoff competition. While the Hawks went 6-2 in the second half of the season it was against teams that finished with a 45-75 record or .375 winning percentage (excludes the result of the Seattle game from their opponents record). How does that translate to a team like Washington whose last 4 opponents had a 38-22 record or .633 winning percentage (excludes the result of the Washington game from their opponents record)? Washington went 4-0 in their last 4 games, including wins against 2 playoff teams and Minnesota, which finished #7 in the NFC. That could be a big factor when Washington visits Seattle to start the playoffs. What we do know is that Seattle struggles to run the ball. They rank 20th in that area. How this team fares in the passing game will determine their fate. If they struggle to pass the ball they won’t be able to score enough points to go far in the playoffs. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have a Head Coach who is 1-2 in the Super Bowl including an appearance with the Seahawks just 2 years ago. They have a veteran battle tested group that should be able to turn it on for the playoffs. They rank in the top 10 in 3 of the 4 statistical areas and in the top half of the league in all 4. That balance is imperative come playoff time.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They only won their games by 6.4 points per game and finished with only 10 wins playing in one of the weakest divisions and schedules in the NFL. Their rankings would be a lot lower in the NFC East or AFC South. When they have to play real competition their weakness of running the ball will show. While they may be able to beat a 9-7 Washington Green Bay and Dallas can put a lot of pressure on a passing game that isn’t being helped by the Alexander and the running game.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: This is a veteran team that is probably in the midst of their last playoff run. They made the Super Bowl two years ago. If they don’t win it all they will not have achieved the goals they set for themselves at the beginning of the season.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 10% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seed: NFC #4 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 9-7 2) Points Scored: 20.9 / game (18th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 16.9 / game (3rd) 4) Yards Gained: 326.8 / game (18th) 5) Yards Allowed: 278.4 / game (2nd)
Strengths: See the Tennessee Titans. They are 3rd in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. While they are only 17th in rush yards allowed, they are 1st in pass yards allowed. Considering how much Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle like to pass the ball that is a good thing. They have a veteran Quarterback that gives them just enough offensive production to get by. While Garcia will not throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns like he did in San Fran he doesn’t turn the ball over and converts 3rd downs. While the team only had a 9-7 record, they haven’t played any of their starters in almost 3 weeks. Weaknesses: They just don’t score enough points. Their 20.9 points per game scored is in the bottom half of the NFL. They scored over 30 points only 3 times. Green Bay did that 9 times this season and Dallas did it 8 times. Tampa is also in the bottom half of the league in offense yardage. Where that creates a problem is that Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle all have defenses that rank in the top 10 in either yards allowed or points allowed. Basically the gap between Tampa’s offense and the top seed’s offenses is a lot greater than the gap between the defenses. That is not a good sign for Tampa. Tampa had a better schedule than Seattle, but still were only 2-3 against playoff teams. Both wins were against the #6 seeds. They just don’t have that signature win on their schedule. While Tampa Bay may very well hold Green Bay or Dallas to 20-24 points the question will be whether they can score more than those 20-24 points to advance in the playoffs.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: This team will need to turn the playoffs into a defensive slugfest. They do have the defense to do that. Brooks, Barber, and company do have Super Bowl experience. If the defense can force turnovers and get stops, Jeff Garcia is the type of veteran quarterback that can manage the clock and score enough points to beat teams with better offensive personnel. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They have a horrible draw. Their home game is against the Giants who are ranked #4 in rushing yards. If Eli Manning can avoid the turnovers beating the Giants will be difficult to beat. Then they will have to go to Green Bay, which is a bad weather site, or Dallas, which also has a good running game and can put a lot of pressure on Garcia. After that they would play either Indy or New England. They already played Indy this season and were blown out. I could see them pulling off a shocker and upsetting one of the good teams. To beat the NY Giants, Green Bay, Dallas and then New England or Indy would seem to be too tall of a task. What would be considered a successful Postseason: This team had the 5th pick in the draft last season. They are the only divisional winner in the NFL to not have won 10 games. I think a first round win and competitive showing in the 2nd round would be a successful season, except that this team has a lot of veteran players. Whether this team will be able to build off this experience is something that remains to be seen. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 3% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
Team: NY Giants
Seed: NFC #5 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 23.3 / game (14th) 3) Points Allowed: 21.9 / game (17th) 4) Yards Gained: 331.4 / game (16th) 5) Yards Allowed: 305.9 / game (7th)
Strengths: They led the NFL in sacks. They were 7th in yards allowed. They had the 4th best running attack in the NFL. This is a smash mouth football team that likes to control the clock and get after the quarterback. The testament to this team is their ability to play through injuries. Jacobs, Ward, Droughns, and Bradshaw have all had stretches where they were a featured back in the offense. Burress didn’t practice most of the season and Shockey suffered a season ending injury against Washington. Yet the team has managed to run the ball well and still score points. They played in a division with two other playoff teams. They also played New England and Green Bay. Their schedule was loaded with tough games and could serve them well in the postseason.
Weaknesses: While it is all fine and good to play tough games, eventually you have to win one. The Giants were 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs. Their only win was a Week 3 win against Washington where they stuffed the Skins at the one-yard line in a 7-point game. The bulk of this teams wins were in a 6 game stretch where they played Atlanta, Miami, NY Jets, Philadelphia, and San Fran. Again, this is a team that lives on putting pressure on QBs and forcing mistakes. While that is easy against Joey Harrington and Cleo Lemmon, it is a lot harder against Brady, Favre, and Romo. Their main problem is that they drop the ball a lot, get inopportune penalties, and turn the ball over. Eli is among the lowest ranked QBs in QB ranking, interceptions, and completion percentage. He is 0-3 in the playoffs. He needs to prove that he can win a big game. While he might have played his best game of the year on Saturday his 4th quarter interception and clock management was critical in the Giants demise.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: When this team is on they are as dangerous as any in the league. That was evident in Saturday’s game. If they can play the Patriots to 3 points they can win the Super Bowl. If they bring that type of energy and focus to every playoff game they have the defense and offensive personnel to win tough games. Furthermore they are 7-1 on the road this season. It probably serves them well that unless Washington advances to the Championship Game that they will be playing all their games away from the Big Apple. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Turnovers, Penalties, and Quarterback Play are three of the biggest factors in why teams advance in the playoffs. That is this teams Achilles Heal. While they were 10-6 they had some very easy games and are right in the middle of the league in terms of points scored and points allowed. They just don’t score enough or stop people enough to be considered a serious threat in the playoffs.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: Eli and Tom are 0-3 together in the playoffs. While Tampa Bay is a good team, they are by no means great. This team needs to win a playoff game and play well against Green Bay or Dallas. Considering they were Team Turmoil at the end of last season and lost their best offensive player in Tiki Barber, that would be a nice progression for this team. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 2% -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
Team: Washington Redskins
Seed: NFC #6 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 9-7 2) Points Scored: 20.9 / game (18th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 19.4 / game (11th) 4) Yards Gained: 333.4 / game (15th) 5) Yards Allowed: 305.2 / game (8th)
Strengths: This is a team that is hard to evaluate according to the stats. Since Collins has entered the starting lineup he has the 2nd best QB rating behind Tom Brady. The Redskins have a very strong front 7 that does an effective job of stopping the run and pressuring the QB. While the Redskins only rank 12th in rushing yards, Clinton Portis is playing his best ball at the end of the season. Santana Moss is finally healthy. This is a team that started 5-3 followed by 0-4 and 4-0. While they do not have a glaring strength they do not have a glaring weakness either. They enter the playoffs playing for Sean Taylor and have as much momentum as any in the NFL.
Weaknesses: Let’s be honest. While Collins is a great story if you could chose to go to war with the 12 playoff QBs, where does Collins rank? I think you might take him over Vince Young and Eli Manning. After that, you are pretty hard pressed say he is a better option than the other QBs. He is playing great and has been doing so against playoff caliber competition. However, can he keep that dream alive for 3 road playoff games and the Super Bowl? One advantage he did have is that 2 of his final 3 games were against divisional opponents or teams that he has game planned for and seen twice a year since arriving in Washington. How does he do traveling to Seattle, Dallas, and Green Bay or places where the home team is 19-5 and the Redskins are just 4-4? This team is still offensively challenged when compared to the other playoff teams. Their challenge will be scoring enough points on the road to beat these tough teams. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have momentum on their side. They are playing with a lot of emotion, they have a new QB, and things are clicking at the right time. It’s hard to evaluate this team other than the games Collins has played in. Since he has been inserted into the lineup they are playing as well as anyone in the NFL. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: It’s a great story, but in the end every team plays with emotion in the playoffs. They just don’t score enough to beat the bigger and better teams in the NFC. There have been plenty of #6 seeds that have snuck into the playoffs by winning out the last month. Only the 2005 Steelers rode that momentum to a title. That was a veteran team that had been 15-1 the season prior and had lost Big Ben for a few games. This Skins team is not nearly on the same level as those Steelers. What would be considered a successful Postseason: Seeing they had to win 4 straight games just to make the playoffs and had the 6th pick in the draft last season, I think just being here is a good story. If they can manage a win that would be a tremendous success and anything else will be icing on the cake.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 5% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
So where does that leave us. Everyone knows that I am a Packer fan and that I will rooting for them to send #4 out a winner. So here are my picks:
Matchup I would predict based on the probabilities: (Dallas or Green Bay) vs. (Indy or New England) – These have been the two best teams in each conference from Week 1 to Week 17. From a sheer probability standpoint it is hard to pick against them playing for it all. Dallas and New England are the favorites and if you aren’t going with them you better have Green Bay or Indy in the equation. Anything outside of these 4 teams is a very big reach.
My prediction: Green Bay vs. New England – Since 1990 there has only been one time where the Number 1 seed from each Conference has met in the Super Bowl. That would be 1991 when the (14-2) Washington Redskins met the (13-3) Buffalo Bills. Seeing it is unlikely that both Number 1 seeds make it, that leaves Dallas limping to a 2-2 finish as the most likely odd team out and Green Bay as the most likely alternative. Matchup I would like to see: Green Bay vs. (New England or Indy) – How cool would it be as a Packer fan to see Brett Favre beat one of the other all time great QBs in Brady or Manning to win his second Super Bowl and ride off into the sunset as a NFL Champion. Sleeper Pick: Jacksonville vs. Seattle – I can’t imagine all of the top 4 teams would be knocked out of the playoffs. If I were going to go against all of them I would chose this matchup. Seattle has more experience than Green Bay or Dallas and Jacksonville is the best team nobody is talking about. They are the best equipped to beat the two AFC and NFC Favorites.
What do you think about the NFC Playoff Picture? Who are you predicting and whom are you hoping for? Let me know your thoughts.
With the draft being over and most of the free agents having been signed, the rosters are starting to take hold for the upcoming season. It is still pretty early to do predictions. There may be some free agent signings after June 1st, some rookies and unknowns will emerge during training camp, and the always unpredictable injury bug will cripple teams. However, what would be the fun in waiting until opening day to do some predictions. I am going to post one division each week. I'll list what I feel are each team's strengths and weaknesses. I'll then try to predict the record and placing in the division. After I have done all the divisions, I will make my playoff and Super Bowl predictions. My first division will be the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys
Strengths: This team returns the core that made this a top offense in the NFL last season. Despite Tony Romo not starting the season, the Cowboys were 4th in the league in points scored, and 5th in total yards. Jones and Barber form a terrific duo at running back, and Owens, Glenn, and Witten are excellent targets. The offensive line is solid. This is one of the more balanced offensive attacks in the NFL. The defense has a very intimidating front 7. Ware and Spears are excellent pass rushers. Rookie Anthony Spencer should be able to help in that area as well. Also, the defense was 10th against the run.
Weaknesses: The main weakness is the pass defense. While Terrance Newman is a great cover corner and Roy Williams helps stop the run as well as any safety in the league, the Cowboys gave up too many big plays last year. The Saints exposed what a balanced attack could do to the Cowboys at the end of last season. Ken Hamlin will be an upgrade at safety. Anthony Henry needs to play better than he did last year. While cornerback was addressed in the 7th round, those players will probably not contribute as starters this upcoming season. The other area of concern is whether Wade Phillips is the right person for this job. While has made the playoffs with the Bills and Broncos, he has never taken a team on a deep playoff run. Handling personalities is always a concern when you have TO in your locker room. Also, there is concern at the third receiver spot. Patrick Crayton looked tough at times last season. However, after him, there is a huge drop off in production. If the Cowboys sustain injuries to their 30 plus starting wide receivers, the offense could severely suffer.
Prediction: This may be the toughest division to pick this year. Three of the teams are coming off playoff berths, but everyone has big questions. The biggest key for Dallas will be the development of Tony Romo. While he looked like a Peyton Manning clone against Tampa last year, he had some average performances as well. Sometimes quarterbacks take a step back after the league has a chance to watch film on a player. If he plays at a Pro Bowl level, the Cowboys should have a great chance to not only win the division, but make a solid playoff run. If he plays poorly, the Cowboys don't have a shot to do much of anything. Outside of the division, the schedule might be tough, but most of the tough games are at home. There worst road game is at Chicago. They have home games against New England and New York Jets. The Rams, Packers, and Panthers offer some competition against 8-8 teams from a year ago.
Record: 10-6, NFC East Division Title, NFC #3 seed
Philadelphia Eagles
Strengths: Andy Reid probably did his best coaching job last season. The Eagles had a very explosive offense last season. They were 6th in points per game, and 2nd in total yards. All this was accomplished despite losing Donovan McNabb in the middle of the season. They were able to survive that injury, in part because of Jeff Garcia, and in part because Brian Westbrook is one of the most versatile running backs in the game. The pass defense was, as usual, in the top 10 as well last year. The acquisitions of Takeo Spikes and Kevin Curtis should help on both sides of the ball.
Weaknesses: The Eagles enter the season with a number of question marks. 1) Will Donovan McNabb be healthy to start the season? He is coming off a serious ACL injury. The goal is for him to be ready for the third preseason game. However, if he is slow to come back or gets hurt in the middle of the season, as he has the last two seasons, the Eagles could be in trouble. Feeley and Kolb do not have the track record of a Jeff Garcia in the event McNabb misses significant time. 2) Will a healthy Jevon Kearse and the addition of Takeo Spikes be enough to improve a 26th ranked rush defense, and 3) How will the Eagles replace Donte' Stallworth. His production dropped after McNabb got hurt, because Garcia was not a strong at throwing the deep ball. However, he was a nice addition to the team and will be missed by McNabb. Their draft appears to be fairly average this year, and even with the addition of Curtis, they failed to add any proven playmakers to the offense.
Prediction: As long as McNabb is ready for the season opener and is able to start at least 14 games this season, the Eagles should be in contention for the playoffs and the division this year. Without him, they don't look to have a realistic shot of making the playoffs. However, even if he is able to stay healthy, the Eagles are not as strong as the teams from a few years ago. They need to stop the run better this year and they need someone to step up on offense to take the pressure off of McNabb and Westbrook. Unlike the Cowboys, they play both the Jets and Patriots on the road. They also get the Seahawks and Saints, instead of the Panthers and Rams. That alone might be enough to give this division to the Cowboys. Andy Reid is a great coach and will get the most out of this team. However, it is very hard to pick a record for this team without knowing how McNabb will come back from that injury. For now, I am predicting the Eagles will take a step back this season.
Record: 8-8, 2nd NFC East, No Playoffs.
Washington Redskins
Strengths: The strength of the Redskins is their running game. Betts was a 1,000 yard rusher last season. Portis, when healthy is a 1,000 yard rusher. The Redskins should be able to punish teams on the ground. While Santana Moss had an off year last season, part of the problem was the musical chairs at quarterback. Cooley is also a nice target at tight end.
Weaknesses: When you have the 6th pick in the draft, there are plenty of them. The biggest weakness by far was the defense. 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass, 31st in total yards, and 27th in points allowed. The Redskins had a bend and break defense. LaRon Landry should be a big help in the secondary. He is a four year college starter who should be able to step in and contribute immediately. Outside of that pick, the Redskins got very little immediate help in the draft. If Springs can stay healthy and Landry plays well, the Redskins should be much better against the pass. However, I still have doubts about their ability to stop the run. On offense, the passing game as a whole must improve. Jason Campbell had a nice end to the season. He showed flashes of being a good starting quarterback, particularly against the Giants in the season finale. However, for the Redskins to be competitive, he needs to take the next step in his development. That means having higher than 53.1% completion percentage and taking care of the ball. While Moss and Cooley are quality targets, Lloyd and Randle El need to contribute more.
Prediction: While this team is only a year removed from the playoffs, I don't see them returning to the playoffs this season. The Eagles and Cowboys are tough teams, and have fewer issues than the Redskins do on defense. While the Eagles run defense was nothing to celebrate, it should be better and a veteran quarterback gives more hope for a good season. With Jones, M. Barber, and Westbrook in this division, the Redskins have to stop the run. The schedule is a mix of difficult and easy. The Redskins travel to the Patriots and Jets. The Cardinals and Bucs should be easier than what the Eagles and Cowboys face. While a healthy Portis mixed with Betts and Moss may be exciting at times, it's hard to run the ball a lot if the defense is giving up a lot of points. I think playing around .500 football is a realistic expectation.
Record: 7-9, 3rd Place NFC East, No Playoffs
New York Giants
Strengths: The strength of this team is its skill players. Even with the retirement of Tiki Barber, the Giants have some good weapons. Burress had 10 touchdown grabs last season, Shockey is a very solid tight end, and Jacobs rushed for 9 touchdowns last season. Droughns is a nice addition to the team, although he is the same type of player as Jacobs, in that he is a power runner. Eli Manning has shown signs that he can be a Pro Bowl level quarterback, but has been way too inconsistent in his play.
Weaknesses: Where do I begin? The biggest problem that the Giants had last season was chemistry. Eli Manning never seemed to be on the same page with his team. Coach Coughlin was never able to get control of the team. It was very surprising that Coughlin survived the offseason. The Giants have to replace Barber, who had 2107 total yards, 5 touchdowns, and was the leader of their offense. Jacobs looks up to the task, but until he plays a full season, who knows? Droughns adds a quality second option. Next, Eli Manning has to make the jump this season. The Giants are 0-2 in the playoffs under Manning. He is hot one week and cold the next. He completed 57.7% of his passes and had 18 interceptions last season. He must become smarter in his decision making, continue to throw touchdowns, and make good decisions under pressure. Finally, they also have to find a way to stop people. The Strahan injury contributed to that problem. However, a defense can not count on one player so much that his injury causes them to finish 24th in points per game and 25th in yards allowed.
Prediction: The hardest thing to figure out about this team is whether they are the team that started 6-2, or the team that finished 2-6. I like their draft. Ross and Smith should help right away. Droughns was an acceptable addition to make sure that Jacobs doesn't have to shoulder the entire load of replacing Tiki Barber. The noteworthy part of the schedule has the Patriots, Jets, and Packers at home, with the Bears and Falcons on the road. In the end, I think that Tiki Barber is going to be a too huge of a void to fill. With all the talent on offense, it was still evident from the Redskins game to close the season that he was the go to guy in the offense. If they struggle against the Eagles, Jets, Falcons, and 49ers at the beginning part of the season, it could be over quickly. I don't think Coughlin will be able to keep control of the team if they hit a rough patch early in the season. Finally, I don't think the defense is good enough to compensate for Manning making a high number of mistakes. If he doesn't value the ball this year, it could be a long season. I think predictions for this team will greatly differ between people, depedning on how highly that person values Eli Manning. Despite making the playoffs, the Giants were still an 8-8 team last year. With all these issues, and being in a competitive division, I don't find it unrealistic in the least to see them take a step back.
Record: 6-10, Last Place NFC East, No Playoffs
I hope you enjoyed reading the predictions. I will try to post the NFC South sometime next week.
I was listening to the radio this morning and heard a segment about a new book by Jayson Stark called, "The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History." One of the topics I love to write about is comparing different players. While I didn't really feel like researching almost 100 years of football to determine who is the most overrated and underrated of all time, I decided to do a list for active players today. The positions I went by were Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, and Secondary. As I've stated in previous posts, I don't rate kickers and punters, because they are not football players. Without further delay, here is my list.
Quarterback
Underrated: Marc Bulger (Rams) - He has been a starter since the middle of the 2002 season. In that time, he has one season below 63% completion. He has 95 touchdowns against only 59 interceptions. He has been fairly durable, having only one season in the last four where he failed to start at least 14 games. He has three seasons of over 3,800 yards. Yet with Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Mike Martz, and all the big names that have been there since 2002, you don't hear his name as much as you should. Part of the problem is that the Rams went to two Super Bowls from 1999 to 2001. Kurt Warner had two of the best regular seasons in NFL history in that time spanned. Since Bulger took over they have won one playoff game. However, much of that can be attributed to bad coaching, an aging roster, and a poor defense. The quarterback is not the problem, evidenced by his two Pro Bowls. I like the direction the team is headed, and with a solid postseason run; Marc Bulger should look to get more attention.
Overrated: Donovan McNabb (Eagles) - I was looking at going with Ron Mexico here, but I think everyone recognizes him as a tremendous athlete, that has never realized his full potential. Donovan McNabb has gotten a lot of publicity for a lot of reasons. He led the Eagles to four straight NFC championship games from 2001-2004. He has been to a Super Bowl. He makes exciting plays with both his arm and his legs. He is a likeable player. However, when you look at the numbers, I don't see it. He has one 3,500 yard season in his career. He threw for over thirty touchdowns one time. He has a career completion percentage of 58.2% in a West Coast Offense. To his credit, he has 152 career touchdown passes to just 72 interceptions, and he is an excellent rushing quarterback. However, over the past 5 years he has managed to start over 10 games just twice, and excluding his 2004 season with TO, he hasn't thrown more than 18 touchdown passes. His value continued to plummet with the success the team experienced under Jeff Garcia. I think he is still a quality starting quarterback. However, I think people tend to lump him in with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as one of the league's elite quarterbacks. I don't think that is a reality either.
Running Back
Underrated: Brian Westbrook (Eagles) - Westbrook's problem is that he plays for a coach that loves to pass the ball, and running backs are judged by how many rushing yards they tally. Brian Westbrook is one of the most dangerous combinations of running and receiving. Since 2003, his lowest rushing and receiving total is 945 yards back in 2003. He has been over 1,200 every year since. Last year he totaled 1,916 rushing and receiving yards. He is averaging about 9.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns per season since 2003. However, he has only been to one Pro Bowl back in 2004. I think his value to the Eagles was further demonstrated by losing McNabb last season and not missing a beat. For as much experience as Jeff Garcia had, there is no way he could have done what he did without Brian Westbrook. While Westbrook is not in the Tomlinson and Johnson class, there are too many running backs mentioned before him.
Overrated: Clinton Portis (Redskins) - This pick has nothing to do with his recent comments about what happens on Ron Mexico's estate stays on Ron Mexico's estate. He is a talented runner. I'm not even basing this on being hurt last season. I just don't think he has been that effective since leaving Denver. His first two seasons in Denver were amazing. He rushed for almost 1550 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns per season. He made the Pro Bowl in 2003. Denver was so impressed they traded him to Washington for Champ Bailey. Since then, his rushing average has dropped to just a tad over 4 yards per carry. In 29 games with Denver, he had 29 touchdowns. In 39 games with Washington, he has 23 touchdowns. He hasn't broke 300 yards receiving since he left Denver. Some would argue that injuries and coaching have caused his numbers to decline. I would argue that he was a good running back that looked great in Denver, because that is what Denver does for good running backs. Once he was removed from that element, we see what he really is. He is not a top 5 running back. Furthermore, he is playing this season to remain in the top 10 running backs. I think the fact that Washington signed Betts to an extension shows that Washington isn't as sold on him as when they traded Champ Bailey to get him.
Wide Receiver
Underrated: Donald Driver (Packers) - I'm not saying Donald Driver is in the Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, or Chad Johnson class. Donald Driver's problem is that he has played in the shadow of Brett Favre and Ahman Green. He has been a great player on a bad team the last couple of seasons. What people need to realize is that this receiver has had four 1,000 yard seasons in the last five. He has had three straight 1,200 yard seasons. He has had three straight seasons with over 80 receptions. His has yet to crack the 10 touchdown mark, although he has two seasons with 9 touchdowns. However with Green injured and on the declne the last few seasons, and no threat opposite of him since Javon Walker left, he has been the only good option in the offense. If Green Bay's running game can improve this year, and Jennings develops into a solid number two, Donald Driver should be able to do even bigger things this year.
Overrated: Santana Moss (Redskins) - I really have nothing against the Washington Redskins. I just think that if you asked people if Santana Moss is an elite wide receiver, a lot of people would say yes. His only Pro Bowl season in 2005 was a fantastic season. He had 80 plus catches, 1400 plus yards, and 9 touchdowns. Besides that, he has one other 1,000 yard season. He also had 10 touchdown catches that year. The other three seasons he started he didn't crack 900 yards and didn't have more than 6 touchdown catches. While he is very athletic and has shown glimpses of greatness, he has never been able to put it all together for consecutive seasons, something that elite wide receivers need to do. Again coaching, injuries, and quarterback shuffles have hurt him. However, I think this guy is ranked a lot higher than his production suggests he should.
Tight End
Underrated: Ben Watson (Patriots) - He doesn't get mentioned as a top tight end; mainly because of his short time in the league, the offense he plays in, and the time he shared with Daniel Graham. Ben Watson is as gifted as any tight end in football. The Patriots prefer to spread the ball around to many different players. However, he did have 49 catches for 643 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the absence of a big wide receiving threat. I think if he played on a team that involved him more in their offense, his speed and athleticism would produce bigger numbers. It will be interesting to see if the additions of Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth help or hurt his production. My guess is that with Daniel Graham gone, and safeties concentrating on stopping the deep threats; Ben Watson is going to be seeing a lot of single coverage from linebackers and will be in store for a big year.
Overrated: Jeremy Shockey (Giants) - I'm not saying that Jeremy Shockey isn't a good football player. I'm saying that I think people like to put Jeremy Shockey in the same category as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Shockey has one 70 catch season, which was his rookie year. He has never had 1,000 yard season. He hasn't even had a 900 yard season. The most touchdown catches he has had in a season is 7. His 24 touchdowns in 69 games do not scream elite status. To put it in perspective, Gates has 34 touchdowns in 61 games. He has a 1,000 yard plus season, and two 900 yards plus seasons. Gonzalez has 6 such seasons, including the last 4 seasons. I think the temptation is to lump these three players into the same category as superstar tight ends. I think it is clear that while Shockey is a very good tight end, Gates and Gonzalez are in a class by themselves.
Offensive Lineman
Underrated: Mark Tauscher (Packers) - He is just a very solid player ever since he was drafted. Started in 2000 as a seventh round pick. From 2002 to 2004, many people considered the Packers and the Chiefs to have the best offensive lines in football. He rarely jumps offside, and is hardly ever called for holding. He is effective both as a run blocker and pass blocker. However, he has never made a Pro Bowl. When people think of great tackles, Mark Tauscher is far from the top of most people's list. However, he has been a solid part of the solid Green Bay Packer offensive line the last 8 seasons.
Overrated: Eric Steinbach (Browns) - I wanted to put Leonard Davis here, but while he was overpaid, I don't think anyone besides Dallas considers him to be that good. This is the hardest position to pick, as offensive linemen as a whole are underrated. It isn't like the media is running around doing weekly stories about the offensive line. However, I think that for not playing in a Pro Bowl, a 7-year, $49.5 million contract (of which $17 million is guaranteed) to a guard would qualify as overrated. At least when Steve Hutchinson signed his big deal, he had helped lead the Seahawks to the Super Bowl and was coming off 3 Pro Bowl Seasons. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game. I think Eric Steinbach is a fantastic football player. I'm just not sure he is $49 million good.
Defensive Lineman
Underrated - John Henderson (Jaguars) - I think John Henderson goes under the radar for a number of reasons. First, he plays in a small market. The Colts have been the class of that division. Defensive Tackles tend to go unnoticed, because they don't put up a lot of sacks. Also, he plays with another great defensive tackle in Marcus Stroud, who has been to 3 Pro Bowls. Make no mistake, John Henderson is a big reason whey the Jaguars have had such a successful defense the last few seasons. Henderson has played in every game since he was drafted. He actually has more sacks than Stroud. He also has more tackles. All of this despite having one less season than Stroud.
Overrated: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (Packers) - He is probably one of the more famous names on the Packer's defense. Has a cool nickname in KGB. Anyone that has watched him play in Green Bay regrets the day the Packers gave him $39 million dollars. From 2001 to 2004 he at least registered double digit sack totals. It at least made it bearable when he was getting run over. The last two years he has 8 sacks and 6 sacks. He is a liability against the run, and not sacking the quarterback enough to justify it. The Packers had to move Jenkins to defense end on running situations to stop the onslaught teams were mounting toward KGB on running downs. He is a good situational pass rusher, who many people thought of as an every down defensive lineman. I have heard so many experts say he would be more effective if he had help on the other side. Reggie White got his teammates at least 10 extra sacks a season, just because teams were concentrating on him. I have never seen KGB make anyone better on his team.
Linebacker
Underrated: Donnie Edwards (Kansas City) - Defensive players are judged by the glamour statistics. Sacks and Interceptions. Donnie Edwards is a guy that has never had more than 3 sacks in a season. However, he has been over 100 tackles every year since 1997, or his second season in the league. The San Diego Chargers didn't have the money to keep him, but they are not happy that he is back with Kansas City, meaning they will face him twice this season. While sacks are not his specialty, he tackles well, stops the run, and is a defensive leader on the field.
Overrated: Dan Morgan (Panthers) - I'm not picking on Dan Morgan, because he is coming off serious injury. I think this is a player that was a tremendous athlete at the University of Miami, who has never translated to being a great player in the pros. The Panthers are considered to have a great defensive. When people think of the Panthers defense, they think of Peppers, Jenkins, and Morgan. The most tackles he has had in a season are 101. He has 7 sacks and 5 interceptions in 56 games. He has never scored a defensive touchdown. Yet he made the Pro Bowl in 2004. Part of the problem is that he can't seem to stay on the field. However, while I acknowledge that he has shown glimpses of being a good middle linebacker, I haven't been as impressed as many people.
Secondary
Underrated: Asante Samuel (Patriots) - Just as I don't hate the Redskins, I am not a huge Patriots fan. I just call them the way I see them. I understand that the Patriots are the best run front office in football. I also know that if they don't want to give him big money, it is probably the right move. He just finished his fourth season in the league. He is coming off a 10 interception season last year. He has been a great starting cornerback the last two seasons. He was one of the cornerbacks that were asked to step in when Ty Law left. The Patriots haven't missed a beat since then. This guy doesn't get mentioned as a top cornerback, because of the team first concept the Patriots have established over the last 5 seasons. This guy is a top NFL talent and I think the Patriots would be foolish to let him get away.
Overrated: Nate Clements (49ers) - A lot of this had to do with that ridiculous contract he signed this year. I understand he was the best defensive back on the market. But 80 million? The one good thing I will say about him is that he is durable. He has played in 16 games every year of his career. I also know that there is more to evaluating a cornerback than interception totals. However, he has had 5 interceptions the last two seasons. He made one Pro Bowl in 2004, which doesn't mean much, seeing Buffalo is a small market and a bad team since he got there. I just don't equate him to Champ Bailey, Chris McCallister, Ronde Barber, or some of the other elite cornerbacks. I definitely would not have gotten into that bidding war if I were an NFL GM.
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan that now loves the Jets. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
In addition to this blog I am also a writer for the Fantasy Football Maniaxs. It is quite an honor to be writing with a group of knowledgeable football fanatics. The address is http://www.fa ntasyfootball maniaxs.com. I hope you enjoy the blog.
