This is my fifth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The AFC North is a division that has some of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams and their fans really do not like each other. The Bengals appeared to be poised to dominate the division after an 11-5 record with a young offensive core in 2005. The Steelers beat them in the Wildcard Round, won the Super Bowl, and appeared to be in complete control of the division. The Bengals have been irrelevant since. The Steelers didn’t even make the playoffs after their Super Bowl win and the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens remerged in 2006. Then the Ravens crashed to 5-11 as the Steelers took back the division. Forgotten, have been the Cleveland Browns, who came out of nowhere to win 10 games in 2007. They were one of the biggest surprises in 2007. As big free agency spenders they look to take the division for the first time since 1989.

The AFC North has been a wide-open race the last few years. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC North.

1) Pittsburgh Steelers

07 Record: 10-6

Points Scored: 393(9th)

Points Allowed: 269 (2nd)

Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 153-103 (.598) (1st in NFL)

Strengths: The Steelers were a great statistical team in 2007. They finished 2nd in points allowed, in large part due to the 27 points they gave up to Baltimore resting starters the last game of the season. Indy led the league with 262 points allowed. The Steelers did finish 1st in yards allowed. They were 3rd in rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Mike Tomlin did a great job with this team in his first season as a NFL Head Coach.

On offense they also did well. Big Ben had only 3,154 yards passing, but recorded 32 touchdown passes. The reason for that is the Steelers threw a lot in the redzone. While the Steelers 2,168 rushing yards was 3rd in the NFL, their 9 rushing touchdowns were 22nd. With Willie Parker coming back from injury, the Steelers got a gift by having Rashard Mendenhall fall to the 23rd pick. The Steelers figure to have a formidable running attack for years to come. They should get more rushing touchdowns in 2008, so long as they can replace Alan Faneca. He is a 7-time Pro Bowler and 5-time first-team All Pro, 4 of which were between 2004 to last season. That is difficult to replace and even though the Jets overpaid for the 30 plus year old guard, the Steelers have some large shoes to fill.

They also got some receiver help. They weren’t bad there to begin with. Hines Ward is starting to drop in productivity, but is still a great blocker and team leader. He is consistently around the 1,000-yard mark with 7-10 touchdowns. Santonio Holmes is entering the magical 3rd year for wide receivers and looks to be on the verge of a breakout year. I expect him to solidify himself as the number one option. Limas Sweed is the tall receiver Big Ben wanted and should fit in well. He is a good endzone and 3rd down target. Heath Miller is a fantastic tight end.

The Steelers figure to be in the top 10 of the league in scoring in 2008 again. With the defense they have, that should mean another divisional title.

Weaknesses: Here is the million-dollar question. How does a team that finishes 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, 9th in points scored, and throws the 6th fewest interceptions finish 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs?

The problems were two-fold. The Steelers were a terrible road team. They were 7-2 at home, with their sole losses coming to Jacksonville in the regular season and playoffs. Losing to the same team twice at home was a Steeler first.

3-5 on the road is just not good enough. Furthermore those road wins were against Cleveland, Cincy, and St Louis. This team has to show better on the road against the good teams in the NFL.

The second problem was the team finished bad. After starting the season 9-3, they finished 1-4, including the playoff loss. I will give the Steelers a bit of a pass on the playoff loss, as not having Willie Parker was huge. The Steelers need play action to succeed in the passing game and that injury limited them. They also lost Aaron Smith, which hurt their run defense at the end of the season. Troy Polamalu, one of the best safeties in all of football played only 11 games last year. He missed 4 of the last 6 games in the regular season. They had some key players that were not right and were essential parts to their team.

Still injuries were not the only reason they fell short. What they need to do is get more sacks and more turnovers. The Steelers had only 11 interceptions, which was tied for last in the NFL. They are traditionally too good at pressuring the quarterback to finish that low.

Sacks were also part of their problem last year. Their 36 sacks ranked 13th in the NFL, but there wasn’t much separation between them and a team like Miami, which ranked 24th with 30.0. They need to get into the high 40s or low 50s in sacks to join the likes of the Giants (53) and Patriots (47). Increases in sacks and interceptions will help this team win more games on the road.

On offense, they need to give up fewer sacks. The Steelers tied for 7th most sacks allowed in the NFL with sacks allowed at 47. To put that in perspective the Colts and Patriots allowed a combined 44 sacks. Part of that is the offensive line. They need to pass block as well as they run block. Part of that is Big Ben. He has to get rid of the ball better and have better pocket presence.

The Steelers have to win with him being a bigger part of the offense. He has led a team to a Super Bowl, is just entering his prime, and that seems strange to say about a guy that threw 32 touchdown passes last year and made the Pro Bowl, but here is my point on that.

Big Ben threw almost 60% of his 32 touchdowns in 5 games. He totaled 19 touchdowns in wins at Cleveland, at Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and at St Louis. The Steelers were just 3-2 in those games. That means in the other 11 games he had just 13 touchdown passes and the Steelers went 7-4 in those games.

In their 3 biggest blowouts he had 11 touchdown throws (at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at St Louis), but he attempted 23, 16, and 20 passes. His best games are when he throws the ball the least. The more he throws the ball, the worse the Steelers are. That is true of a lot of teams, but 30 passes is not that many passes in the NFL. It would be different if we were talking about when he throws 50 passes.

If the Steelers are going to improve on their 2007 campaign that have to be able to rely less on play action and rolling him out of the pocket. While that is a great dimension to have it should be icing on the cake, not be the focal point of the passing offense. He really needs to become better in the pocket if he is going to join the elite signal callers in the NFL.

Prediction: I really liked the Steelers draft and think they have an excellent chance to compete in the AFC. Their struggle is in the schedule, the most difficult in the NFL. They have a brutal stretch where they play Week 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indy, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincy, 13) New England, 14) Dallas.

That is six 2007 playoff teams in seven weeks, which includes the two Super Bowl representatives and 3 of the 4 teams that earned first round byes. I was tempted to pick Cleveland, because they have Denver and Buffalo instead of San Diego and New England, but I resisted that temptation.

The Steelers have owned this division for a long time. They have a great defense, much better than Cleveland. The Steelers are 44-20 since 2004, which is the first year Big Ben joined the team. Other than the Super Bowl hangover season, which included a coach on the way out and Big Ben’s big motorcycle incident the Steelers have been the class of this division and won 10 games or more every other year.

Cleveland is probably going to make the playoffs this year, but they have to prove to me they can beat the Steelers before I pick them to overtake the Steelers. The Steelers don’t have a glaring weakness like the Browns pass defense. That said, Pittsburgh has an impossible schedule and will have to play better than they did last year if they want to repeat as division champs. I think they will do that.

Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record: 11-5 – AFC North Divisional Champion; AFC #4 Seed

2) Cleveland Browns

07 Record: 10-6

Points Scored: 402 (8th)

Points Allowed: 382 (21st)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Browns had an offensive juggernaut in 2007. That said, it was anything but expected. They looked like the worst team in the league in their 34-7 opening day loss to the Steelers. They did nothing well and Crennel shipped his starter, Frye, out after the Week 1 debacle.

That was a puzzling move, but Anderson responded with 328 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Bengals the very next week. He finished with 3,787 yards and 29 touchdown passes. He appears safe as the starter, but has an anxious Brady Quinn waiting in the wings. If Anderson struggles early, the calls for Quinn will come quick and loud.

The Browns have great talent at the skill positions. Braylon Edwards finally settled into the role of star receiver with 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had that magical 3rd year breakout season. Kellen Winslow, Jr also had 1,106 yards and 5 touchdowns. Both are young and coming into their own. They added Stallworth to the mix, which should really help the offense. He gives them a speed threat opposite of Edwards and should open up the middle of the field for Winslow, Jr. That puts Joe Jurevicius at his best position, which is a 3rd receiver.

Jamal Lewis rediscovered his legs and had 1,304 yards and 9 touchdowns. Keep in mind that 4 of those 9 touchdowns came against Seattle and 308 yards came in 2 games against Cincinnati. He needs to spread his production more evenly across the schedule. Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison played well in stretches last year and could contribute in a larger role this season.

Josh Cribbs is an excellent return threat and if it weren’t for Hester would be looking to claim the title as best return man in the NFL. The Browns finished 8th in points scored in 2007. With another year together they should be poised to do even more in 2008.

Weaknesses: The Browns had two weaknesses. First, and foremost was the defense. 21st in points allowed. 30th in yards allowed, 31st in 1st downs allowed, 24th in passing yards allowed, and 27th in rushing yards allowed. This was one of the worst units in the league and prevented them from doing bigger things in 2007.

Enter a free agent spending spree. They signed Shaun Rodgers and traded a 2nd round pick for Corey Williams. Davis, Jackson, McGinest, and Wimbley are solid linebackers. The front 7 should be improved with the addition of those two linemen. I expect them to stop the run better and put more pressure on the quarterback.

The problem is they didn’t address the secondary. Sean Jones is a good safety and had 5 picks last year. They lost Bodden in the Rogers trade and Holly was lost for the season in May with an injury. Terry Cousin is going to be called on to play big minutes and the Browns may have to go corner hunting on the waiver wire. They lack a shutdown corner. They didn’t have any draft picks to address the need with those picks belonging to Dallas (Quinn trade) and Green Bay (Williams trade).

That is not a good thing given the weapons the Steelers and Bengals have. They are going to need to score a lot of points, because their defense, while improved is still not among the strongest units in the NFL. The good thing is they are capable of doing that.

Prediction: I wanted to pick the Browns based on their slew of offensive weapons. I thought better of it and remembered that the defensive component does help. While the Steelers have a tougher schedule, they have the better team, which usually comes out on top. Also, keep in mind the Brown won 10 games with an easy schedule in 2007. This year figures to be more difficult this season.

Still, they are going to cause match up problems for teams with their speed at wide receiver and the points they can put up in bunches. They won with a bad defense last year and they should be even better on offense in 2008. There is no reason this team cannot win 10 games. If they can do that they should be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. It is much deserved for the Dawg Pound, which has been thirsting for a winner for a long time.

Cleveland Browns’ Record: 10-6 – AFC North 2nd Place; AFC #6 Seed

3) Cincinnati Bengals

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 380 (11th)

Points Allowed: 385 (24th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Bengals have a great passing attack. Palmer had his 2nd consecutive 4,000-yard season and had 26 touchdown passes. The only off part for him was his 20 interceptions. He is one of the best passers in the NFL, but has yet to be consistently surrounded with a good defense that can get the Bengals into the playoffs.

TJ Houshmandzadeh busted out for 112 catches and 12 touchdowns. Chad Johnson had 1,440 yards and 8 touchdowns. Those 2 players are as productive as any receiving duo in the NFL. They cause nightmares for defensive coordinators and are perfect compliments.

Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson combined for 1,260 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. While the Bengals only ranked 24th in rushing yards those two gave them enough considering the potency of the passing attack. The problem is the Bengals were forced to throw out of necessity in a lot of games and not choice. Their defense gave up too many points for the backs to get enough carries.

Shayne Graham is one of the best kickers in the business. He is accurate, kicks for distance, and has been an elite level kicker for the last few seasons.

Weaknesses: This team’s main weakness was defense. Defensive guru Marvin Lewis has never been able to fix that since arriving in Cincy. In 2005 and 2006 they forced a high number of turnovers to offset their large number of points. Their high-flying offense could make up for that.

Last year the Bengals were 24th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in passing yards allowed. While they were still 6th in interceptions with 19, it wasn’t nearly enough to win games, given that they were turning the ball over a lot and not running the ball well.

They lost their best defensive lineman in Justin Smith. He signed with San Fran. They added Keith Rivers at linebacker in the draft. However, they had to add wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd round in the event Ocho Cinco is a no show. That hurt them from upgrading the defense even more. It is still going to be exploited in 2008.

In past years Rudi Johnson was a threat. He was good for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Last year he was hurt most of the year and the Bengals were too one dimensional on offense. That was a big reason for Palmer’s 20 interceptions. He threw 25 in 2005 and 2006 combined.

The biggest problem is this team’s attitude. This is the weakest team in terms of mental toughness in the NFL. That starts with the front office. They had a roster of players that should have starred in the Longest Yard. Chris Henry and Odell Thurman were released because of their constant brushes with the law. Both were talented players that did not live up to expectations off the field.

That did not discourage the Bengals from drafting Jason Shirley from Fresno State. Shirley's received a two-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team in August. He was suspended for a 2nd time in October on su####ion of driving under the influence and hit-and-run. Shirley was reinstated on November 15, but two days later, he was dismissed from the school after he was cited for su####ion of driving with a suspended license and expired registration.

Most teams would have moved on to the next player on their Big Board. The Bengals were perfectly comfortable drafting someone with that record. As long as they continue to draft players of that character, they will continue to have these problems. Adding a 5th round problem child doesn’t ruin a team. But the fact that they even drafted him given the problems they have had shows the mentality of that front office. Character is not a priority in Cincy. Management is as much responsible for the problems they have had in recent years as the players who have not been able to stay out of trouble. You can’t keep ignoring character and not expect to have these problems.

Then there is Chad Johnson. I can understand his frustration and the Bengals should have traded him. However, his attempt to acquire a trade this offseason has been nothing short of a circus. He was quoted as saying this in a June 3rd, 2008 article by Dave Fleming for ESPN Magazine, "It's the reinvention of Ocho Cinco," he says. "I'm dead serious. People need to take me as I am because I just don't give a [expletive] anymore. That's how I'd sum up my attitude for the next season."

That’s fantastic coming from one of your offensive leaders and best players. He has transformed himself from a funny and enjoyable player to a TO type player in just a couple seasons. I like Chad Johnson, but he needs to get back to the old Chad Johnson before I am going to resume enjoying him. Also, TJ Houshmandzadeh is missing mini camps looking for a new contract.

There are enough good players here, but no one appears to be on the same page. Winning is secondary at this point in Cincinnati for both the players and front office.

Prediction: The schedule is too tough for the Bengals to be playing against themselves. Pittsburgh is still good and Cleveland is fast improving. The AFC South and NFC East had 6 playoff teams in 2006. There just aren’t a lot of winnable games.

The sad thing is that quarterback is one of the hardest positions to fill and the Bengals have a great talent there. They are wasting away the prime years of Carson Palmer’s career by not adding a defense and having their skill players bicker. I feel bad for him, because I think he is a good character guy. He deserves better. It is a shame he has to play in such chaos.

The Bengals will outscore some people and win games with their offense. However, turnovers, lack of a running game, lack of defense, lack of mental toughness, and lack of teamwork will be too much to overcome against a tough schedule. If they are not careful, they could fight there way to the bottom and finish in last place in the AFC North.

Cincinnati Bengals’ Record: 5-11 – AFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Baltimore Ravens

07 Record: 5-11

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 310 (11th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: It is really hard to say anything good about the Baltimore Ravens 2007 season. They were coming off a 13-3 season and had acquired Willis McGahee. They were expected by many to compete with the top AFC teams for a possible Super Bowl birth. The Ravens started 4-2, before losing 9 straight games, bottoming out by losing to the winless Dolphins in Week 15. They beat the Steelers on the last day of the season to salvage a 5-11 campaign. The result was the end of the Brian Billick era and the hiring of John Harbaugh.

The strength of the Ravens starts with their defense. It has been that way since Ray Lewis arrived in 1996. Since 1999 the Ravens have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense 6 times and in the top 10 in yards allowed every year other than 2002. The Ravens were impossible to run the ball against last year. They were 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 1st in yards per rushing attempt, and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed.

The Ravens still have a great front 7. Ngata was a great pick at defensive tackle in the 2006 draft. Terrell Suggs is still a great pass rusher and will be 26 in October. He had a down year with 5.0 sacks after consistently being in the 8-12 range. He must rebound. The million-dollar question is how much does Ray Lewis have left in the tank. The 9-time Pro Bowler and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer turns 33 years old this season. He hasn’t had 100 solo tackles since 2004, something he did 6 of the 8 seasons prior to 2004. He must stay healthy for the Ravens to have their defense at its best.

The secondary is great when healthy. Ed Reed is still the best safety in the business. McAllister and Rolle are both over 30 years old and were injured last season. That was a main reason why the Ravens finished 20th in passing yards allowed and 26th in passing touchdowns allowed. Fabian Washington and Frank Walker were brought in to address secondary depth. They should stop the pass better in 2008.

On offense, the Ravens were able to run the ball behind Pro Bowler Willis McGahee. He had 1207 yards and 7 touchdowns. That was a great season given the cast around him. Ray Rice was a nice addition to back him up in the 2nd round.

Other than McGahee, the Ravens had little to nothing on offense. They have a very anemic passing offense, evidenced by the 23rd ranking in passing yards and 28th ranking in passing touchdowns. The Ravens highest single game point total was 30 points in 2008 and they scored under 20 points 8 times. Matt Stover is a great kicker, but was all too many times the Ravens best offensive weapon.

Weaknesses: Here is how bad the Ravens quarterback situation has been in the Ray Lewis era. Last year, Kyle Boller became the all-time Raven passing yardage leader with 7,846 yards, surpassing Vinny Testeverde, who threw for 7,148 yards in 29 games in 1996 and 1997. It took Boller 53 games and 42 starts to accumulate his passing yards. It took the Ravens 10 seasons to find a quarterback with enough staying power to surpass 7,148 yards.

The Ravens have never been able to throw the ball. In 2008 they have 3 choices. Kyle Boller, who is the franchise’s all time passing yards leader and a certifiable bust. Joe Flacco is another choice. He is a rookie who played his college ball at the University of Delaware. The third option is Troy Smith, who is in his second year. He is a great leader and intangible guy who must prove to the Ravens he possesses NFL skills. It is not exactly an all-star group.

Todd Heap is a good tight end that was injured last year. He should rebound to give the Ravens a solid target in the middle of the field. Derrick Mason was solid as usual with 103 catches for 1087 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. The only question with him is age, as he is 34 years old. Mark Clayton looked to be poised for a breakout year in 2007. He regressed to 48 catches, 531 yards, and 0 touchdowns.

The offensive line is going to be in a state of flux if Jonathan Ogden follows through on his retirement talk. He has reportedly told the Ravens not to expect him back. He is an 11-time Pro Bowler, 9-time All-Pro, and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer. It is hard to replace guys like him. Losing him is going to hurt this offense in terms of run production and protecting a young quarterback.

The Ravens didn’t have a lot of salary cap room to improve. They are going to have to improve from within to improve on their poor offensive showing from 2007.

Prediction: This is not the worst team in the league in terms of talent. It is a very solid defense with a below average offense. That should still win some games. However, it is has a horrible schedule. They play the following scoring defenses in 08: Colts (1), Steelers twice (2), Titans (8th), Eagles (9th), Jaguars (10th) Redskins (11th), Cowboys (13th). That doesn’t include the defending champion NY Giants, Cleveland who is vastly improved, and Cincinnati, who went 2-0 against the Ravens in 2007.

I think that while there are some nice young players on defense, but a few of the core players are starting to get up there in age. Ray Lewis has to play lights out if this defense is going play at a high enough level for the team to compete. They are going to be playing either a bad quarterback or an inexperienced quarterback, neither of which is a good thing. They have some nice pieces on offense, but nothing that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. McGahee can’t run effectively against 8 people in the box, and Heap needs receivers to stretch the field and give him room in the middle. Mason is a solid threat, but doesn’t stretch the field. Ogden retiring would be a terrible blow to the offensive line.

The schedule is impossible and I look for 4 wins out of the Ravens. They will play teams tough and keep the score down, but I think the offense is just too weak. The good news is they had a good draft in 08 and if Flacco or Smith is the real deal at QB they could put easily together a playoff contender in 2009 with another good draft, some free agent signings, and an easier schedule.

Baltimore Ravens’ Record: 4-12 – AFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

One of the things that people have noticed about Brett Favre this season is how much smarter he is playing with the ball.  Brett Favre brought up a very interesting point in his press conference.  He says that might be the case, but in his opinion he is preparing for each game and going through the same decision making process that he has for most of his career.  He felt the biggest difference between this season from 2005 and 2006 is that the Packers have been competitive in every game.  He hasn’t been forced to lead the offense back from double-digit deficits so far in the 2007 campaign.

One thing you have to realize about players is that whether it is true or not, professional athletes will rarely admit that they prepare for teams differently.  Look what happened to Rex Grossman when he said he didn’t prepare for the New Years game last season differently, because it was New Year’s Eve.  Brett Favre is a seasoned veteran that is perfectly aware that every word he says is scrutinized.  I believe he prepares for a game the same way when he is 2-10 as when he is 10-2.  He is one of the greatest competitors in the history of sports.  However, he is still human.  It is hard to be excited to play on Sunday, when you have no shot of being competitive.  This is especially true of a seasoned veteran that has won a Super Bowl and been successful throughout his career.  Even if he didn’t prepare as well in 2005 and 2006, he wouldn’t be stupid enough to admit it and cause a media controversy.

Still, does he have a point or did it take two losing seasons for him to realize he can’t force the ball into stupid places?  Is he just starting to get it?  I find that hard to believe.  I don’t think you become a smarter player in your 17th year than you were in your 16th year.  However, I don’t just take players at their word.  I looked at the statistics and found some very interesting things. 

1) Quarterbacks need a top defense to be successful – There are always exceptions to the rule.  Carson Palmer is the good exception in Cincy.  Rex Grossman is the not so good exception in Chicago.  However, I don’t think it’s a big secret that QBs play better when they are ahead then when they are behind.  I looked at Brett’s stats in the following manner:  From 1993 to 1998 and from 2001 to 2003, Brett Favre had the luxury of playing with a defense that was in the top 12 in scoring defense.  In those years he had 286 touchdowns to 155 interceptions.  His average QB rating was an 89.9.  That means that in 1992, 1999-2000, and 2004-2006 Favre played with a defense ranked lower than 12th.  Favre had 128 touchdowns to 116 interceptions.  His average rating was 79.0.  The only year he played poorly with a good defense was 1993.  He had 19 touchdowns, 24 interceptions, and a rating of 72.2.  The Packers defense was 9th in scoring defense.  However, this was Brett’s second season as the Packer’s starting QB.  He has clearly evolved since those early years. 

2) Favre has had 2 consecutive bad seasons twice in his career - Once was 1999-2000 and the other was 2005-2006.  In 1999-2000 he had 42 touchdowns to 39 interceptions.  He had ratings of 74.7 and 78.0.  In 2005-2006 he had 38 touchdowns and 47 interceptions.  He had ratings of 70.9 and 72.7.  What do those two stretches have in common?  In 1999 and 2000 the Packers ranked 20th and 14th in scoring defense.  In 2005 and 2006 the Packers ranked 20th and 25th in scoring defense.  Those just happen to be 4 of the 6 worse defenses Brett Favre has played with in his career.  The others were 1992, his first season as a starter (he played with Sterling Sharpe) and 2004.  I’ll get back to 2004 in a second.  What changed in 2001 that allowed Favre’s numbers to shoot back up for a 3-year period?  Ahman Green introduced to the running game and the defense going from 20th in 1999 to 14th in 2000 to 5th in 2001.    Favre’s numbers shot back up in 2001 to 32 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, a 94.1 QB rating and second in the MVP voting.  While it is still very early, if he maintains his early 2007 start, he would put up very similar numbers this season. 

3) How can Carson Palmer put up good numbers with a bad defense? – Carson Palmer has never played with a defense ranked higher than 17th.  How can he put up such good numbers?  Very simple, Johnson, Johnson, and TJ.  If you are going to have a bad defense, you can still put up good numbers, but you better have weapons that can make plays despite the fact that you are being forced to throw the ball.  Brett had a year like that.  The anomaly in his stats is 2004.  Despite playing with the 23rd scoring defense, Favre had 30 touchdowns to 17 interceptions and a rating of 92.4.  Why was he successful that year?  There were a couple reasons.  That was the season where the Packers started off 1-4, gave up 28.4 points per game, and had 40+ points scored on them twice in that stretch.  The last 11 games of the season the defense gave up a more respectable 21.4 points per game.  The other thing that happened were Walker and Driver combing for 21 touchdowns and both having over 1200 yards.  Green had a 1,000-yard plus season.  The offense had so many weapons that year, that Favre was able to succeed, similar to Palmer and Bulger with bad defenses.  It’s pretty hard to survive with one Pro Bowl receiver, an injured running game, and a poor defense.  This is what Favre was asked to in 1999-2000 and 2005-2006. 

In 2005, Favre’s worst season as a pro it is no coincidence that 491 of the 607 passes he threw were when the Packers were tied or behind.  221 of those 491 passes were with the Packers down 9 or more points.  If you look at this season, the Packers have the 8th best scoring defense in the league.  The Packers beat the Eagles 16-13, the Giants 35-14, and the Chargers 31-24.   I think the most they have trailed by this season is 4 points.  That has allowed Favre to play more conservatively and the result is 6 touchdowns, 2 picks, and a 93.4 rating.  Is Brett making better decisions?  Absolutely.  However, it is easier to make better decisions and not force things when the score is manageable.  Favre can take the safe check down throw and punt the ball.  When you are behind 10 or more points, the defense knows you have to throw the ball down field and can adjust their defense accordingly.  When you combine that with a lack of playmakers, you get Favre’s 2005 season. 

The best point I heard Favre make is when he talked about Drew Brees.  He said that it’s no accident that Brees is having so many picks with the scores so lopsided.  He said that he has been through seasons like that and it isn’t easy.  Here is the stat breakdown on Drew Brees: 

In 2006 Brees had 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 96.2 rating.  The Saints ranked 13th in scoring defense in 2006.  Their 6 losses were by an average of 8.8 points per game.  This season the Saints have the 31st ranked scoring defense.  They are losing their games by an average of 21.7 points per game.  Is it any accident that Brees has 1 touchdown, 7 picks, and a rating of 57.1?

I can’t believe that Brees forgot how to play QB.  Had last season been his first and only good season, I would say the defense watched film and adjusted.  Last year was his 3rd consecutive Pro Bowl Caliber season.  When he was successful in San Diego, they had the 13th and 11th scoring defense in the league.  In 2002 and 2003, when he was in danger of losing his job in San Diego, the Chargers had the 31st and 22nd ranked scoring defense. 

Because football is a team sport, it is hard to say who is responsible for what.  Do the Saints have the 31st ranked scoring defense, because the offense is ranked 27th in scoring?  Maybe the Saints have the 27th ranked scoring offense, because the defense is ranked 31st?  I would say that it is a little bit of both.  The offense isn’t exploding out to a fast start and allowing the defense to play with a lead.  However, the defense never gets off the field without giving up points, and the offense never gets to play with a sizeable lead. 

In most cases the units have to work together, otherwise they both suffer.  Otherwise, you need the Bengals offense, or the Ravens and Bears defense.  A team where one side of the ball is so good that it allows the team to be competitive despite the shortcomings on the other side of the ball.  Rarely are teams like that successful year after year. 

There are 4 reasons that Brett Favre is playing better in 2007, 1) The Packers finally have more than Donald Driver in the receiving game.  Franks, Lee, Jones, and Jennings are giving Favre other places to deliver the football, 2) While the running backs aren’t producing big numbers, they aren’t fumbling the ball away, putting the team in a rough spot.  Green was a great running back, but the Packers are not missing his fumbles, 3) The defense is forcing turnovers and getting stops.  This is allowing the offense to be patient and not try to score 21 points in a quarter, 4) The Packers are getting good field position in the kickoff and punt game, allowing them to have good field position on both sides of the ball.

What this goes to show is that even the best quarterbacks need weapons around them to succeed.  It is 11 offensive players against 11 defensive players for a reason.  The Packers are doing better because Brett Favre is doing better.  Brett Favre is doing better, because the Packers are doing better.  This is why his numbers have gotten better, not because a light bulb suddenly went off in his head.  What is refreshing is that after 17 Hall of Fame seasons; Brett Favre hasn’t become so high on Brett Favre that he has forgotten that.  It will be interesting to see if this young team can maintain this early level of success.   It won’t be easy.  They will need to improve the running game, continue to play well on special teams and defense, and value the ball.  They will also need to stay healthy.  However with an improved team and Number 4 still at the helm, I wouldn’t bet against it. 

Donovan McNabb has reopened a debate that has been in the NFL forefront for sometime.  McNabb was interviewed by James Brown of HBO Sports and the topic came up as to whether Black NFL Quarterbacks are treated differently than White NFL Quarterbacks.  To summarize his interview, McNabb stated that black NFL quarterbacks face more pressure, scrutiny and criticism than their white counterparts.

I thought it would be interesting to look at this argument statistically and see whether his claims had any merit.  This is the list of the top 5 white quarterbacks playing in 2006:  Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger, and Drew Brees.   I understand that Brett Favre would be on the list if we were looking at this historically.  I also understand Phillip Rivers was in the Pro Bowl and Tom Brady was not.  However, if you were starting a franchise today, these would be the top 5 white quarterbacks that most NFL general managers would have on the top of their list. 

In 2006, the top 5 starting black quarterbacks would be as follows:  Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Vince Young, Steve McNair, and David Garrard.  McNabb did not start the whole year due to injury and Garrard shared time with Byran Leftwich.  To make things fair, I averaged the statistics out based on the number of games played:  Here is what I came up with:

Manning, Brady, Palmer, Bulger, Brees – The five quarterbacks played in an average of 16 games.  They averaged passing for 4,136 yards, 26.6 touchdowns, 10.6 interceptions for the 2006 season.  This comes to an average of 258.5 yards per game, 1.7 touchdown passes, and 0.7 picks per contest.  They combined for an average QB rating of 94.4.  Their teams combined for a record of 50-30 or an average of 10 wins on the 2006 season.  Three of them reached the playoffs.  Those three started in the conference championship games.  Manning went on to win the Super Bowl. 

McNabb, Vick, Young, McNair, Garrard – The five quarterbacks played in 68 out of 80 games.  They averaged passing for 2,421 yards, 15.2 touchdowns, and 10.6 interceptions.  This comes to an average of 178.0 yards per game, 1.1 touchdowns passes, and 0.8 picks per contest.   They combined for an average QB rating of 80.2.  Their teams combined for a record of 9.2 wins, which is just slightly below the star white QBs.  Two of them reached the playoffs, although McNabb was on IR for the playoff run.  McNair lost his first playoff game to Manning’s Colts. 

One thing to keep in mind is that Michael Vick on his own out produced the 5 white QBs in rushing yards and touchdowns.  Young probably did the same.  However, the quarterback position has traditionally been evaluated on the QBs ability to pass the football.   Steve Young was a great scrambler too.  He didn’t start getting his just due until his passing numbers went off the charts.   

The only quarterback on the black quarterback list that rivals the white quarterbacks as a passer are McNair and McNabb.  McNair put up insane numbers while in college.  While he has won an MVP, he has never put up gaudy passing numbers in the pros.  McNabb is very similar to McNair, except he did have one season where he put up gaudy numbers, which was 2004.  The rest of his career he has been a low 3,000 yard passer around 20 touchdown passes. 

It is unfair to judge the black quarterback’s treatment if you are going to compare that treatment to a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, etc.  The reason this is unfair is that their black counterparts are not putting up passing numbers that are even in the realm of equivalence. If there were currently a black quarterback that was throwing for those numbers on a consistent basis, we could compare the treatment.  For instance, if Warren Moon were playing today, we would have a quarterback that was in the same statistical area.  However, because there is currently not a quarterback that is throwing for 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 picks, we are left to compare apples and oranges.

The bottom line is that quarterbacks are judged on two things.  First, and foremost, it is how they throw the ball.  Do they throw for a lot of yards?  Do they score a lot of touchdowns?  Do they throw very few interceptions?  However, doing that alone will not keep you employed.  Ask Jeff George.  Secondly, you not only have to win, but you have to be perceived as the reason your team won.  You have to matter.  That is why Troy Aikman was able to come back in 1994 after throwing 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 1993.  On the other hand, Trent Dilfer, who threw 12 touchdowns and 11 picks in 9 games in 2001 was asked to find a new team to sign his paychecks.  Both won the Super Bowl.  However, Aikman was considered a catalyst for those Super Bowls, where as Dilfer was considered a liability.   

A perfect present day example would be Rex Grossman.  He led his team to the Super Bowl, or followed them there, depending on your perspective.  His team was 13-3, and the number one team in the NFC.  His Bears scored the 2nd most points of any team in the NFL.  He threw for 3193 yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 picks, and had a QB rating of 73.9.  I live in Chicago.  I hear everyday how the Bears need a new QB.  The perception is that the Bears are a QB away from winning the Super Bowl.  The perception is that the Bears are winning despite Grossman, not because of him.  I believe that Rex Grossman is currently the most scrutinized quarterback in the NFL. 

A close second would be Eli Manning.  Not only does he quarterback in New York, but his older brother is arguably the best QB in the game.  He threw for 3,244 yards, 24 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 77.0.  However, he is not his brother.  His Giants started the season 6-2, before finishing 8-8.  They made the playoffs and lost their first round game.  It was widely accepted that if he does deliver a 3,500 yard, 25 touchdown, 15 interception season, with a QB rating in the mid 80s that results in his team making the playoffs; that the Giants would be looking to bring in competition for his job.  The only reason he is not under fire for the Giants 0-2 start is because he has played well and the defense has given up 80 points.  Check back next week for his status. 

Quarterback is the most unfair position to play in sports.  Quarterbacks get way to much credit when the team wins.  The Quarterback gets way to much blame when the team loses.  Quarterback is known as a what have you done lately position.  They can be throwing parades in your honor one day, and throwing you out of town the next.  It is not unprecedented that successful quarterbacks have lost their job rather quickly. 

In 1989 Joe Montana won the League and Super Bowl MVP.  He followed that up with a 14-2 record and a loss in the Championship Game in 1990.  Due to the injury he suffered in that Championship Game, he missed the 1991 season and almost all of the 1992 season.  Despite having won 4 Super Bowls in San Francisco and being widely considered the best QB to ever play the game, the 49ers shipped him to Kansas City for the 1993 season, because they felt Steve Young gave them the best chance to win in 1993.  This was the same Steve Young that had never won a Super Bowl as a starter and was the pre 2006 Peyton Manning of his day, the great QB that couldn’t win the big game.  

Kurt Warner won a Super Bowl in 1999.  He also won the regular season and Super Bowl MVP.  In 2001, he duplicated that regular season MVP performance and lost the Super Bowl.  His offense finished #1 in both scoring and yardage in 1999, 2000, and 2001.  In 2002 he was injured and looked shaky.  By 2003 Marc Bulger had the job in hand.  In 2004, Warner was playing for the Giants. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I am not so naïve that I believe that professional sports is a 100% racist free world.   There is still racism in our society.  Professional sports is part of our society.  Therefore, there is no reason to believe that racism is not present in professional sports.  However, this notion that black quarterbacks have to do something extra to keep their job is, in my opinion, preposterous. 

I don’t know how any quarterback keeps his job.  The Favres, Mannings, and Bradys amaze me with their ability to keep their jobs year after year.  Most owners are not going to hang on to white quarterbacks that can’t produce.  Most of the media is not going to baby white quarterbacks.   The majority of the people associated with the NFL are about winning today.  Not tomorrow and not yesterday. 

What do Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell have in common?  They are all black quarterbacks that were top 5 picks in the draft since 1999, the year Donovan McNabb was selected with the second overall pick.  In comparison, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Tim Couch were the white QBs that shared that honor. 

That means seven white quarterbacks compared to five black quarterbacks taken in the first five picks of the first round since Donovan McNabb was drafted.  Five of the white quarterbacks are starters, compared to two for the black quarterbacks.  If Michael Vick could have avoided legal problems, Joey Harrington wouldn’t be a starter and it would be four to three.  If JaMarcus Russell had not held out the entire preseason, it might have even been a tie. 

Furthermore, JaMarcus Russell, the star black quarterback in this years draft was picked number one, while his white counterpart, Brady Quinn dropped to the end of the first round.  This isn’t the league that Warren Moon was faced with in the late 1970’s.  If a black quarterback proves that he is NFL capable in college, not only will he be drafted, he will be drafted very high.  While some will point to Heisman winner Troy Smith dropping to the 5th round this year, I will point to Eric Crouch, a Heisman winner that was not drafted by the Rams to play QB, but Wide Receiver. If the NFL is putting more pressure, scrutiny and criticism on black quarterbacks than their white counterparts, it sure isn’t showing in the war room on draft day. 

I do not know Donovan McNabb personally.  The impression that I get from Donovan McNabb is that he has a chip on his shoulder.  I think he has that chip on his shoulder because he isn’t held in the same esteem as the other top quarterbacks in the game, something he feels he has earned.  What he is forgetting is that even the league’s elite face tough scrutiny. 

Ask Manning what it is like to be the best QB in the game.  I’m sure he wouldn’t say free from criticism and doubt.  Manning has won 2 League MVPs and threw for 49 touchdowns in a season.  Until last season that wasn’t good enough, because he was the Pro Bowl QB that couldn’t win the “big game.”  He sort of silenced those critics by winning the Super Bowl MVP.  However, the criticism was that while he won the Super Bowl, the defense and running game played too big of a role in delivering that Super Bowl.  He didn’t play well enough to take enough credit for the Colts run.  Therefore he still isn’t the big game QB that he should be.  Talk about tough and unfair criticism. 

Carson Palmer is not being criticized yet, because he has only been starting for 3 years.  Bulger is entering his 5th season as the opening day starter.  Brees is in his second year with New Orleans and is entering his 6th season as a starter.   Furthermore, all three of those teams have horrible defenses that are considered the part of the team that is holding the franchise back.   However, if postseason success eludes these young quarterbacks, they too will soon be labeled as disappointments.  If Brees doesn’t turn around this season, he will be the first to hear those criticisms. 

McNabb has been a starter since the 2000 season.  To his credit, he throws very few interceptions.  McNabb is the second least intercepted quarterback per pass attempt in NFL history, behind only Neil O'Donnell.  McNabb's career ratio is 1 interception per every 45.26 pass attempts.  This leads to his very respectable career QB rating of 85.2.  He makes a lot of exciting plays and played in four consecutive championship games from 2001-2004.  He went to the Super Bowl 2004.  In his defense, other than 2004, he has never had a game changing wide receiver. 

However, McNabb has a lot of negative points too.  To his detriment, he has a 58.1% career completion percentage.  He has only thrown over 3500 yards once.  He has only thrown over 20 touchdowns three times.  Furthermore, while other than TO, he has never played with a “game changing” wide receiver, he has played with a defense that finished in the top five in scoring defense 4 times, and was 7th in 2003.  Bulger, Brees, and Palmer have had the luxury exactly 0 times combined. 

When Donovan McNabb played well, he was given his just due.  His successful play led to many endorsements, not only for him, but his mother.  His most notable commercial was the Chunky Soup Commercials.  He also graced the cover of the 2006 John Madden Football game.  In 2004, he was widely considered the 3rd best QB in the game, behind Manning and Brady.  Had he maintained those numbers, he would still be receiving the same compliments he did in 2004.  However, while Brady and Manning have maintained their stats and team success, Donovan has not.  Trust me, if Peyton Manning plays 10 games the next 2 seasons and doesn’t break 20 touchdown passes or 3,500 yards, the cries for a replacement will be heard loud and clear. 

McNabb is now over 30.  While he has been a successful quarterback, he is by no means a Hall of Fame Quarterback.  He has not won a Super Bowl.  He has played 10 games or less 3 of the last 5 seasons, and finished the season on IR the last 2 seasons.  His mobility looks diminished; he is throwing the ball for a 54% completion percentage.  His team has scored one touchdown in over 20 offensive possessions this season.  I think it is a fair question for the media, fans, and the franchise to ask if his best days are behind him and if the Eagles would be better served to move in a different direction.   I think there are legitimate arguments on both sides of the issue.  If Donovan McNabb were white, we would be having the exact same conversation. 

Donovan needs to stop worrying about how people view his legacy, and whether that view is just.  What is most important is how Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles view his current performance.  He needs to get his knee right and start winning some football games.  He needs to start playing like he did in 2004 and the beginning of last season.  This isn’t happening because the League, the Media, and the Fans want to see one less quarterback starting in the NFL.  This isn’t about diminishing what he did in 2004.  This is about whether Donovan McNabb has what it takes to be an effective quarterback in 2007. 

For his sake, he better figure it out fairly quickly.  If the Eagles miss the playoffs, he, like black and white quarterbacks that have been injured or unproductive for multiple years before him, will be looking for new employment in 2008.  Who knows, maybe he will replace Rex Grossman.  Then we can listen to Rex Grossman complain about the raw deal he received in Chicago.  Wouldn’t that be an ironic twist? 

After taking a couple weeks off for my vacation, I am back from my trip and ready to finish my division predictions.  This division along with the NFC West is probably the most wide-open division in the NFL.  The Steelers are a year removed from the Super Bowl title.  The Bengals are a year removed from the division title.  The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season. The Browns had one of the busiest drafts in the NFL.  There should be a lot of debate from some very passionate fans about how this division will turn out.   Here is how I see the AFC North playing out this season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths:  The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the most complete offenses in the NFL.  Carson Palmer had another brilliant season in 2006.  Despite coming back from a very serious ACL injury, Palmer threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdown passes.  He had only 13 picks.  The one negative is that his completion percentage dropped from 67.8 percent in 2005 to 62.3 percent in 2006.  Still, he is arguably the third best Quarterback in the game, behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  . Chad Johnson and TJ “Whose your Mama” form one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL.  The Bengals ranked 8th in both scoring offense and passing offense.    Rudy Johnson has been a durable back that has topped over 1300 yards and scored over 12 touchdowns in each of the last 3 seasons.  The Bengals are in the conversation for having the best QB, RB, and WR combos in the entire NFL.  The only troubling thing on offense last season was that the Bengals as a team ranked 26th in rushing offense.  Kenny Watson was their second leading rusher with just 158 yards.  Chris Perry was limited to just 6 games last season.  The Bengals attempted to upgrade the backup running back position by drafting Kenny Irons out of Auburn.  He should be able to give the Bengals more depth at the running back position this season.  On defense, the one strength the Bengals have had over the last two seasons has been forcing turnovers.  They had 44 takeaways in 2005 and another 31 in 2006.  The Chicago Bears were the only team to better that 75 takeaway total over the last 2 seasons.  If they can return to their 2005 form, they should be able to improve on their disappointing 2006 season.   

Weaknesses:  The Cincinnati Bengals were the most disappointing team in the NFL last season.  This was a team that entered the season with Super Bowl expectations.  They started off the season 3-0, lost 5 of 6 games, won 4 consecutive games, followed by losing their last 3 games, and falling out of playoff contention.  This team lacked consistency.  The biggest example of this was their defense.  In their 4 game winning streak from November 19 to December 10th, the Bengals allowed 8.25 points per game.  Then they allowed 27 points in their 3 game losing streak to end the season.  The main weakness is the same as it has been the last 3 seasons.  Despite having a top 10 ranked scoring offense, the Bengals have finished no better than 17th in scoring defense the last 3 seasons.  Last season they ranked 31st in total yards.  The Bengals don’t need to be as good as the Bears or the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball.  They need to get a lot of takeaways and keep the game competitive so that their high-powered offense can maintain balance.  Drafting Leon Hall should help their 31st ranked passing defense.  Jonathan Joseph looks to be a young player on the rise.  Getting Odell Thurman back should help their linebackers.  Justin Smith, Sam Adams, Dexter Jackson, and Deltha O’Neal are all proven veterans in this league.  The Bengals have the talent in place to be a good defense.  Marvin Lewis has an excellent defensive background.  The Bengals need the talent on paper to translate to production on the field. 

Prediction:   This is a very tough division to pick.  The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season.  The Steelers are 1 year removed from a Super Bowl Championship.  The Browns have been both busy in the draft and the free agency signing period.  I think any fan could make an argument for their team winning the division, other than the Cleveland Browns.  That said, I think the Bengals will win this division.   Last season derailed for two main reasons.  1) Injuries to the offensive line.  The offensive line was injured very early in the season.  That contributed as much as anything to their early season collapse.  The season ending collapse had a lot to do with the schedule.  They had to close the season against Indy and Denver on the road, and Pittsburgh at home.  That was a brutal end to the season.  The Bronco game they lost on a botched extra point.  The Steelers game was lost in overtime.  The only teams that blew them out last season were New England and Indy.  This team lacked consistency and discipline, evidenced by all of the off the field arrests.   It cost them in a lot of close games.  While the offseason has not been entirely quiet, it seems to be getting better.  However, losing Chris Henry for the first 8 games is a big loss.  Despite having only 36 receptions, he did score 9 touchdowns.  Antonio Chapman, Tab Perry, and Glenn Holt will have to step up in his absence.  The Bengals should have enough talent at the skill positions to survive his absence.  The key for the offense will be keeping the offensive line healthy and replacing Steinbach.  The beginning of the season is tough.  They draw Baltimore, at Seattle, and New England in three of the first four weeks of the season.  After that it is a mix of tough divisional games and some games that appear to be easier, such as Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, Tennessee, and Kansas City.  The big advantage they have over the Ravens is not drawing Indy and San Diego.  If the Bengals can get out of the gate early, their second half schedule appears to be a lot easier than Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  That should put them in position to win the AFC North title.      

Record:  10-6, AFC North Division Title, AFC #4 seed 

Baltimore Ravens

Strengths:  The strength of this team is the same as it has been since their 2000 Super Bowl title.  The Ravens have had one of the best defenses in the NFL over that span.  They have ranked outside of the top 10 in defensive yardage and scoring only once, which was in 2002.  They have ranked in the top 5 in scoring defense 3 times and yardage 5 times in that time span.  The secondary is loaded.  McAllister, Rolle, Landry, and Reed may be the NFL’s top secondary.  The Denver Broncos are the only other team in the discussion.  Suggs, Scott, and Lewis are fantastic linebackers.  Pryce, Gregg, and Ngata make up a very solid defensive line.  They lost only one starter one the defensive side of the ball, but he was a big one in Adalius Thomas.  Still the Ravens should have enough talent on their roster to be among the leagues best defensive units.  While the offense is not stellar, the Ravens do have some good parts.  Steve McNair is a steady veteran that manages the game well and has a knack for pulling out late game heroics.  Jonathan Ogden is always among the top tackles in football, Todd Heap is always among the leagues top tight ends, and Willis McGahee should offset the loss of Jamal Lewis. 

Weaknesses – The weakness of this team is the same as it has been since the 2000 Super Bowl title.  The Ravens have had one of the least potent offenses in the NFL over that span.  The last 3 seasons saw them finish outside of the top 20 in total yards.  The reason the Ravens were able to improve from 2005’s 6-10 mark to 13-3 last season was very simple.  The defense improved from number 10 in points allowed and number 4 in yardage to number one in both categories.  That combined with the arrival of Steve McNair allowed the offense to jump from 25th in scoring offense to 12th.  The concern with this team is that the offense still lacks explosiveness, and many of the key players on both sides of the ball are reaching the ends of their career. Odgen has 11 years of experience, McNair has 12 years, and Mason has 10 years of experience.  While Steve McNair was a welcome addition over Kyle Boller, McNair barely topped 3,000 yards passing, had only 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.  Not exactly explosive numbers.  Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason are very average receivers.  Mason had only 750 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Clayton had 939 yards and 5 scores.  The Ravens attempted to improve their offense by adding two guards, Grubbs and Yanda.  They also added wide receiver Yamon Figurs of Kansas State.  While many will point to the addition of Willis McGahee, Lewis had more attempts, yards, and touchdowns, while averaging only 0.2 yards less per carry.  I think the Ravens had to take this gamble.  Lewis was clearly on the decline and they needed a change.  However, while McGahee was hurt last season, he has not been able to put together anything close to his rookie season.     

Prediction: Baltimore has a couple of obstacles.  1) How does another year of age affect this veteran squad?  Ray Lewis and Steve McNair are very tough football players.  Both were able to play most of the snaps last season.  Both have had injury concerns in recent seasons.  Do these two stay healthy this season or does age catch up with them?  2) The schedule is brutal.  After their week 8 bye they draw at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, at San Diego, New England, and Indy.  Even for the best teams in the league, that could be a 1-5 stretch.  Then they travel to Miami and Seattle, before closing at home against Pittsburgh.  The key to the Ravens season is that they must start hot.  They can’t go into that bye at 4-3 and expect to catch fire against that schedule.  3) How are they going to generate more offense?  In 9 of their 2006 regular season wins, the Ravens allowed 14 points or less.  The Ravens scored over 30 points only 2 times.  To put that in perspective with the other top teams in the AFC, the Chargers did it 7 times, the Colts did that 6 times, and the Patriots did it 5 times.    While the Ravens defense was stellar, they lacked the offensive firepower to advance in the playoffs.  The only key addition I see on offense was the addition of Willis McGahee over Jamal Lewis.  That is probably a wash.  McGahee has failed to put together a season like he did in 2004.  I don’t see him putting up 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns.  If he can get 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, while averaging over 4 yards a carry, I think the Ravens would be ecstatic.  I think the Ravens defense is among the tops in the league and will keep them in most games and in the playoff race.  However, I think age to key players, a brutal second half schedule, and the lack of adding anything of significance to the passing game will prevent this team from repeating the success of last season. 

Record: 9-7, 2nd AFC North, No Playoffs

Pittsburgh Steelers

Strengths:   It’s hard to look at past trends with this team, because for the first time in 15 seasons, the Steelers have a new head coach.  Gone is Bill Cowher and in is Mike Tomlin.  The Steelers have a lot of good players coming back, especially on the offensive side of the football.  Hines Ward is as complete of a receiver as there is in the National Football League.  He is always around the 1,000-yard mark; he catches touchdowns, and blocks as well as any receiver in the National Football League.  Willie Parker had a breakout season, with 1,494 yards and 13 touchdowns.  Ben Roethlisberger was amazing his first two seasons, advancing to the AFC Championship and Super Bowl title, before coming back to earth last season.  While he threw for 3,500 yards, he threw only 18 touchdowns against 23 interceptions.  Big Ben gets a pass for last season, due to the motorcycle accident he had in the offseason and the appendectomy he had to start the season.  Everything went wrong for the Steelers to begin the season, and it showed with a 2-6 start.  They were able to salvage the season by ending it 6-2.  By that point, they had played themselves out of contention in a brutal AFC.  This season he needs to settle down and make the good decisions that allowed the Steelers to be successful their first two seasons in the NFL.  On defense, the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run.  James Farrior and Troy Polamalu are among the best players at their positions. 

Weaknesses:  The main weakness of the Steelers was their – 8-turnover differential, which was good for a tie at 27th in the league.  The Steelers have to get back to what made them a championship contending team in the Bill Cowher era.  They need to run the football, use Big Ben’s abilities to stretch the field, and take care of the football.  They need to play better defense.  The Steelers defense was a mixed bag last season.  While the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run, they fell to 20th against the pass.  It is hard to imagine that the Steelers are going to improve against the pass this season.  They released Joey Porter this offseason.  While he was getting older, he was the heart and soul of their pass rush.  Only the future will tell whether releasing him was the right move.  The Steelers attempted to replace him by drafting Lawrence Timmons in the first round.  The Steelers also bring back the same secondary they had in place last season.  Besides Troy Polamalu, the rest of the secondary has question marks.  Ike Taylor needs to justify his large contract extension last offseason.  Townsend and McFadden will also be back in the secondary.  While Tomlin was great at coaching the run defense, he ran the league worst pass defense in Minnesota.  It will be interesting to see how that translates to a very similar situation in Pittsburgh.

Prediction:  I think this team is heading in the wrong direction after just a year removed from the Super Bowl.  I think the Steelers would have been much better served to retain either Ken Whisenhunt or Russ Grimm.  Instead, they chose to hire a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin.  While he put together the league’s best run defense, the Vikings ranked 14th in points allowed and last against the pass.  They were 25th in sacks.  The team finished 6-10.  I think the Steelers would have been much better served to hire a proven assistant familiar with the organization, rather than hire a coordinator whose defense was stellar in some areas and dreadful in others.  This is another team that had best start fast.  Week 5 has a visit from Seattle, followed by a bye.  After the bye the Steelers are at Denver, at Cincinnati, and host Baltimore.  They play the Jets, Bengals, Patriots, Jaguars, Rams, and Ravens in the second half of the season.  It is conceivable the Steelers could end their season 3-5.  Therefore they have to beat Cleveland twice, Buffalo, and Arizona at the beginning of their schedule if they even want to think about contending for the playoffs.  While some of the pieces are in place from the Championship team a year ago, I think this team is clearly in a state of transition.  While I do not believe they will bottom out this season, I look for this team to struggle a bit this season.  The improvement in this team will be that they shouldn’t start out 2-6 and finish 6-2.  They will be more consistent.  The downside is that I don’t see that being reflected in their overall record. 
    
Record:  8-8, 3rd Place AFC North, No Playoffs

Cleveland Browns

Strengths:  The strength of this team is that they finally have a young nucleus that they can build around.  Brady Quinn appears to be about as much of a sure thing as a pro team could draft from the college ranks.  While it will take time for him to develop, he put up great college numbers and was tutored under a head coach who knows a thing or two about developing pro quarterbacks.  Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are young developing targets.  Joe Jurevicuious and Jamal Lewis provide a veteran presence to this young roster.  Joe Thomas also looks to be a very sure thing on the offensive line.  Signing Eric Steinbach from the Bengals provides a strong left side of the line.  While they probably overpaid for Eric Steinbach, he should help in both the running game and pass protection. 

Weaknesses:   When you are coming off a 4-12 season, the weaknesses are lengthy.  For starters, they had a –15-turnover differential, which was second to last in the league.  It would be hard to believe the Browns will improve on that this season.  Neither Frye nor Anderson appears to be a long-term answer at quarterback.  I would expect that either of them would continue to make mistakes.  If they go with Quinn out of the gate, he is a rookie.  Rookie quarterbacks throw a high amount of interceptions.  Their rushing offense was 31st in the league last season.  Adding Steinbach and Lewis should improve on that total.  However, Lewis has been averaging below 4 yards per carry.  It will be interesting to see if the once dominant runner can restart his career in Cleveland.  While the pass defense was promising, the rush defense was a dreadful 29th in the league.  The Browns have some nice pieces on defense.  McGinest and Washington are solid veterans.  Kamerion Wimberly had 11 sacks last season.  Sean Jones and Daven Holley each had 5 interceptions.  Eric Wright should be a solid addition to the secondary.  Again, there are a lot of nice parts on this team, but they need the time to develop and grow together.  The bad thing for Cleveland is that a bad season will not result in a high draft pick, as the Browns traded that pick to Dallas to acquire Brady Quinn.  Still that was the right move.  Brady Quinn is as good as any first round pick the Browns could acquire next season, and the Browns need to add a face to their franchise that the fan base can be excited about.

Prediction:  For the first time in a long time, I think Cleveland fans should be excited about their future.  Since making the playoffs in 2002, the Browns have not finished over 6-10.  They have failed to finish higher than 27th in scoring offense.  Thomas and Steinbach should be anchors on this offensive line.  Quinn should be a Pro Bowl Caliber Quarterback and the eventual face of the franchise.  Edwards and Winslow are two young targets who have had off the field issues but a world of potential.  Lewis is still young enough to be an effective runner.  The offense is headed in the right direction.  If the offense can start carrying its weight, that alone will help the defense.  It is hard to be an effective defense, when your offense is running three plays and punting the ball on a good series.  It is hard to be an effective defense when you finish 10th in the league in interceptions, yet finish second to last in turnover differential.  That is one reason the Browns have been so bad at stopping the run.  The offense never gets far enough ahead to force the other team to abandon the run.  The Browns won their 4 games last season by a combined 17 points.  They only scored above 30 points one time, and failed to crack 10 points on 5 occasions.  No defense is going to be effective under those circumstances.  The problem is that Romeo Crennel needs to win this year.  He has had a 6-10 and 4-12 season to start his coaching career.  Coaches traditionally get three years to turn a franchise around before getting a pink slip.  The Browns biggest problem is the division they play in.  If they played in the NFC North, and the Packers were in the AFC North, the Browns could perhaps contend for a playoff spot, while the Packers would be staring at last place.  The Browns have to play at New England, at NY Jets, and at St. Louis.  They play home games against Seattle and San Francisco.  That schedule to go along with six games against the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals seems to be too much for this young team to overcome.  They have some winnable games against Oakland, Miami, Buffalo, Houston, and Arizona.  Realistically the Browns are not going to improve much on their 2006 record.  The good news is that with a young nucleus in place, combined with the Ravens and Steelers appearing to be in decline, the Browns should be a contender in this division by 2009.  The sad thing is that Romeo Crennel probably won’t be around to enjoy the foundation he has helped build. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place AFC North, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the AFC North predictions.  I will try to post the AFC South sometime next week.